ALBERT

Description: Current earthquake early warning (EEW) systems lack the ability to appropriately handle multiple concurrent earthquakes, which led to many false alarms during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence in Japan. This paper uses a Bayesian probabilistic approach to handle multiple concurrent events for EEW. We implement the theory using a two-step algorithm. First, an efficient approximate Bayesian model class selection scheme is used to estimate the number of concurrent events. Then, the Rao-Blackwellized Importance Sampling method with a sequential proposal probability density function is used to estimate the earthquake parameters, that is hypocentre location, origin time, magnitude and local seismic intensity. A real data example based on 2 months data (2011 March 9–April 30) around the time of the 2011 M 9 Tohoku earthquake is studied to verify the proposed algorithm. Our algorithm results in over 90 per cent reduction in the number of incorrect warnings compared to the existing EEW system operating in Japan.

Description: Fractured rocks are known to exhibit seismic anisotropy and shear wave splitting (SWS). SWS is commonly used for fractured rock characterization and has been shown to be sensitive to fluid type. The presence of partial liquid/gas saturation is also known to affect the elastic properties of rocks. The combined effect of both fractures and partial liquid/gas saturation is still unknown. Using synthetic, silica-cemented sandstones with aligned penny-shaped voids, we conducted laboratory ultrasonic experiments to investigate the effect fractures aligned at an oblique angle to wave propagation would have on SWS under partial liquid/gas saturation conditions. The result for the fractured rock shows a saturation dependence which can be explained by combining a fractured rock model and a partial saturation model. At high to full water saturation values, SWS decreases as a result of the fluid bulk modulus effect on the quasi-shear wave. This bulk modulus effect is frequency dependent as a result of wave-induced fluid flow mechanisms, which would in turn lead to frequency dependent SWS. This result suggests the possible use of SWS for discriminating between full liquid saturation and partial liquid/gas saturation.

Description: The effect of network density and geometric distribution on kinematic non-linear source inversion is investigated by inverting synthetic ground motions from a buried strike-slip fault ( M w 6.5), that have been generated by dynamic spontaneous rupture modelling. For the inversion, we use a physics-based regularized Yoffe function as slip velocity function. We test three different cases of station network geometry: (i) single station, varying azimuth and epicentral distance; (ii) multistation circular configurations, that is stations at similar distances from the fault, and regularly spaced around the fault; (iii) irregular multistation configurations using different numbers of stations. Our results show: (1) single station tests suggest that it may be possible to obtain a relatively good source model even using a single station. The best source model using a single station is obtained with stations at which amplitude ratios between three components are not large. We infer that both azimuthal angle and source-to-station distance play an important role in the design of optimal seismic network for source inversion. (2) Multistation tests show that the quality of the inverted source systematically correlates neither with the number of stations, nor with waveform misfit. (3) Waveform misfit has a direct correlation with the number of stations, resulting in overfitting the observed data without any systematic improvement of the source. It suggests that the best source model is not necessarily derived from the model with minimum waveform misfit. (4) A seismic network with a small number of well-spaced stations around the fault may be sufficient to obtain acceptable source inversion.

Description: We present high-resolution tomographic images in source areas of 26 large crustal earthquakes ( M 6.0–7.2) which occurred in Northeast Japan (Tohoku) during the past 120 yr from 1894 to 2014. Prominent low-velocity (low- V ) and high Poisson's ratio (high- ) anomalies are revealed in the crust and mantle wedge under the source areas. Beneath the volcanic front and backarc areas, the low- V and high- zones reflect arc-magma related high-temperature anomalies which are produced by joint effects of corner flow in the mantle wedge and fluids from dehydration of the subducting Pacific slab. The hot anomalies cause locally thinning and weakening of the brittle seismogenic layer above them. Low-frequency micro-earthquakes are observed in the lower crust and uppermost mantle in or around the low- V zones, which reflect ascending of arc magma and fluids from the mantle wedge to the crust. No volcano and magma exist in the forearc area due to low temperature there, hence the low- V zones in the forearc reflect fluids from the slab dehydration. The ascending fluids may have produced a ‘water wall’ in the mantle wedge and crust beneath the forearc area. When the water enters active faults in the crust, the fault-zone friction is reduced and so large earthquakes can be induced. These results indicate that the nucleation of a large earthquake is not entirely a mechanical process, but is closely associated with subduction dynamics and physical and chemical properties of rocks in the crust and upper mantle. In particular, arc magma and fluids play an important role in the seismogenesis.

Description: The Maule earthquake (2010 February 27, M w 8.8, Chile) broke the subduction megathrust along a previously locked segment. Based on an international aftershock deployment, catalogues of precisely located aftershocks have become available. Using 23 well-located aftershocks, we calibrate the classic teleseismic backprojection procedure to map the high-frequency seismic radiation emitted during the earthquake. The calibration corrects traveltimes in a standard earth model both with a static term specific to each station, and a ‘dynamic’ term specific to each combination of grid point and station. The second term has been interpolated over the whole slipping area by kriging, and is about an order of magnitude smaller than the static term. This procedure ensures that the teleseismic images of rupture development are properly located with respect to aftershocks recorded with local networks and does not depend on accurate hypocentre location of the main shock. We track a bilateral rupture propagation lasting ~160 s, with its dominant branch rupturing northeastwards at about 3 km s –1 . The area of maximum energy emission is offset from the maximum coseismic slip but matches the zone where most plate interface aftershocks occur. Along dip, energy is preferentially released from two disconnected interface belts, and a distinct jump from the shallower belt to the deeper one is visible after about 20 s from the onset. However, both belts keep on being active until the end of the rupture. These belts approximately match the position of the interface aftershocks, which are split into two clusters of events at different depths, thus suggesting the existence of a repeated transition from stick-slip to creeping frictional regime.

Description: Geophysical and geological data suggest that Tibetan middle crust is a partially molten, mechanically weak layer, but it is debated whether this low-viscosity layer is present beneath the entire plateau, what its properties are, how it deforms, and what role it has played in the plateau's evolution. Broad-band seismic surface waves yield resolution in the entire depth range of the Tibetan crust and can be used to constrain its shear-wave velocity structure (indicative of crustal composition, temperature and partial melting) and radial anisotropy (indicative of the patterns of deformation). We measured Love- and Rayleigh-wave phase-velocity curves in broad period ranges (up to 7–200 s) for a few tens of pairs and groups of stations across Tibet, combining, in each case, hundreds of interstation measurements, made with cross-correlation and waveform-inversion methods. Shear-velocity profiles were then determined by extensive series of non-linear inversions of the data, designed to constrain the depth-dependent ranges of isotropic-average shear speeds and radial anisotropy. Shear wave speeds within the Tibetan middle crust are anomalously low and, also, show strong lateral variations across the plateau. The lowest mid-crustal shear speeds are found in the north and west of the plateau (~3.1–3.2 km s –1 ), within a pronounced low-velocity zone. In southeastern Tibet, crustal shear wave speeds increase gradually towards southeast, whereas in the north, the change across the Kunlun Fault is relatively sharp. The lateral variations of shear speeds within the crust are indicative of those in temperature. A mid-crustal temperature of 800 °C, reported previously, can account for the low shear velocities across Lhasa. In the north, the temperature is higher and exceeds the solidus, resulting in partial melting that we estimate at 3–6 per cent. Strong radial anisotropy is required by the data in western-central Tibet (〉5 per cent) but not in northeastern Tibet. The amplitude of radial anisotropy in the crust does not correlate with isotropic-average shear speed (and, by inference, with crustal rock viscosity) or with surface elevation. Instead, radial anisotropy is related to the deformation pattern and is the strongest in regions experiencing extension (crustal flattening), as noted previously. The growth of Tibet by the addition of Indian crustal rocks into its crust from the south is reflected in the higher crustal seismic velocities (and, thus, lower temperatures) in the southern compared to northern parts of the plateau (more recently added rocks having had less time to undergo radioactive heating within the thickened Tibetan crust). Gravity-driven flattening—the basic cause of extension and normal faulting in the southern, western and central Tibet—is evidenced by pervasive radial anisotropy in the middle crust beneath the regions undergoing extension; the overall eastward flow of the crust is directed by the boundaries and motions of the lithospheric blocks that surround Tibet.

Description: For a period of about 1 yr between the summers of 2010 and 2011, 25 broad-band seismographs were deployed in a roughly linear array across the eastern end of the Qaidam basin and the Qilian Shan in the northeastern Tibetan plateau. This region is probably the most suitable place to study the ongoing convergence interaction between the high Tibetan plateau and the main Asian continental plate. Low-frequency P receiver function analysis of the data provides an image of the crust and mantle down to 700 km depth. In addition to the Moho at 45–65 km depth beneath the profile, the 410 and 660 km discontinuities bounding the mantle transition zone can be identified at 400–410 and 650–660 km depths, respectively. A possible increase in temperature in the upper mantle thought to exist beneath the northern part of the high Tibetan plateau is thus confined to this part of the plateau and lower upper-mantle temperatures similar to those beneath southern Tibet occur beneath the Qaidam basin and Qilian Shan. When higher frequencies are included in the P receiver function analysis, a positive Ps converter dipping down to the south from 70–75 km depth at 37.9°N to about 110 km depth at 36°N is imaged. As this feature is only seen in high-frequency images and not in the low-frequency image, it is modelled as the positive Ps conversion from the base of an approximately 5-km-thick anisotropic layer at the top of the Asian mantle lithosphere which is currently subducting. This south-dipping converter continues to the south on the INDEPTH IV profile. S receiver function analysis completes the image of the structure below the Qilian Shan profile with the identification of the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB). The LAB of the Asian Plate is identified for a reference slowness of 6.4 s deg –1 at 12–14 s (105–125 km depth) between 38 and 41°N below the northern part of the S receiver function profile. To the south it increases in depth such that it is at about 19 s (170 km depth) between 34 and 35°N at the southern end of the profile. The LAB of the Asian Plate occurs at similar depths on the INDEPTH IV profile at the latitudes where the INDEPTH IV and Qilian Shan profiles overlap. As on the INDEPTH IV profile to the south, between 34 and 35°N at the southern end of the Qilian Shan profile there is evidence from the S receiver functions for the LAB of a separate Tibetan Plate.

Description: The aseismic Murray ridge (MR) is a continuation of the Owen fracture zone which marks the boundary between the Indian and Arabian plates. Due to large variation in morphology and structure within this NE–SW trending ridge in the Arabian Sea a large variation of the bathymetry from few hundred metres to about 4000 m is seen. Observed seismicity on the ridge system is predominantly strike-slip. Tsunamis generated in the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) will propagate through the MR system due to its proximity. As the tsunami speed depends on the depth of the ocean, bathymetry plays a vital role on tsunami propagation. In this paper, the effect of tsunami propagation through the MR system is carried out with the existing bathymetry and comparing the results by removing the bathymetry. To study this phenomenon the 1945 Makran tsunami and worst possible tsunamigenic earthquakes form eastern and western MSZ are considered. The directivity of tsunami propagation with the ridge system is seen to change after crossing the MR towards the southeast direction for tsunamis generated in the eastern MSZ. For tsunami generated in the western MSZ there is no change in its directivity and is almost same as without the ridge with propagation being towards the open sea. Hence the MR not only affects the amplitude of the tsunamis but also the directionality and the arrival times.

Description: The effects of Earth's layered structure, gravity and curvature on coseismic deformation are systematically quantified for all fundamental point sources and some finite-fault sources, respectively. The point-source simulations show that the layering effect (about ≤25 per cent) is significantly higher than the gravity effect (about ≤11 per cent) and the curvature effect (about ≤5 per cent). A case study on the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku earthquake is made to quantify the uncertainties of the dislocation models of large earthquakes, in which the three different effects are neglected. Finally, it is investigated how geodetic finite-fault slip inversions are affected by neglecting the layering effect.

Description: Multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) method analyses high-frequency surface waves to determine shear ( S )-wave velocities of near-surface materials, which are usually unconsolidated and possess higher Poisson's ratios. One of key steps using the MASW method to obtain the near-surface S -wave velocities is to pick correct phase velocities in dispersive images. A high-frequency seismic survey conducted over near-surface materials with a higher Poisson's ratio will often result in data that contains non-geometric wave, which will raise an additional energy in the dispersion image. Failure to identify it may result in misidentification. In this paper, we have presented a description about leaky surface wave and the influence caused by the existence of leaky waves in a high-frequency seismic record. We first introduce leaky wave and non-geometric wave. Next, we use two synthetic tests to demonstrate that non-geometric wave is leaky wave and show the properties about leaky surface wave by eigenfunctions using Chen's algorithm. We show that misidentification may occur in picking the dispersion curves of normal Rayleigh wave modes because the leaky-wave energy normally connects energy of fundamental and/or higher modes. Meanwhile, we use a real-world example to demonstrate the influence of leaky wave. We also propose that muting and filtering should been applied to raw seismic records prior to generating dispersive images to prevent misidentifying leaky surface waves as modal surface waves by a real-world example. Finally, we use a three-layer model with a low-velocity half-space to illustrate that leaky surface waves appear on condition that the phase velocities are higher than maximum S -wave velocity of the earth model when solving the Rayleigh equation.