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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2023-02-10
    Description: The Indonesian island of Sumatra, located in one of the most active zones of the Pacific Ring of Fire, is characterized by a chain of subduction-zone volcanoes which extend the entire length of the island. As a group of volcanic geochemists, we embarked upon a five-week sampling expedition to these exotic, remote, and in part explosive volcanoes (SAGE 2010; Sumatran Arc Geochemical Expedition). We set out to collect rock and gas samples from 17 volcanic centres from the Sumatran segment of the Sunda arc system, with the aim of obtaining a regionally significant sample set that will allow quantification of the respective roles of mantle versus crustal sources to magma genesis along the strike of the arc. Here we document our geological journey through Sumatra’s unpredictable terrain, including the many challenges faced when working on active volcanoes in pristine tropical climes.
    Description: Swedish Science Foundation (VR), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Upp-sala University Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS) and Otterborgska donationsfonden
    Description: Published
    Description: 64-70
    Description: 2.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle rocce
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Sumatra ; Indonesia ; geochemisty ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2023-01-31
    Description: We analyze an extensive set of global coupled biogeochemical ocean circulation models. The focus is on the equatorial Pacific. In all simulations, which are consistent with observed standing stocks of relevant biogeochemical species at the surface, we find spuriously enhanced (reduced) macronutrient (oxygen) concentrations in the deep eastern equatorial Pacific. This modeling problem, apparently endemic to global coupled biogeochemical ocean circulation models, was coined “nutrient trapping” by Najjar et al. (1992). In contrast to Aumont et al. (1999), we argue that “nutrient trapping” is still a persistent problem, even in eddy-permitting models and, further, that the scale of the problem retards model projections of nitrogen cycling. In line with previous work, our results indicate that a deficient circulation is at the core of the problem rather than an admittedly poor quantitative understanding of biogeochemical cycles. More specifically, we present indications that “nutrient trapping” in models is a result of a spuriously damped Equatorial Intermediate (zonal) Current System and Equatorial Deep Jets—phenomenon which await a comprehensive understanding and have, to date, not been successfully simulated.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2023-01-31
    Description: Lateral diffusivity is computed from a tracer release experiment in the northeastern tropical Atlantic thermocline. The uncertainties of the estimates are inferred from a synthetic particle release using a high-resolution ocean circulation model. The main method employed to compute zonal and meridional components of lateral diffusivity is the growth of the second moment of a cloud of tracer. The application of an areal comparison method for estimating tracer-based diffusivity in the field experiments is also discussed. The best estimate of meridional eddy diffusivity in the Guinea Upwelling region at about 300 m depth is estimated to be inline image m2 s−1. The zonal component of lateral diffusivity is estimated to be inline image m2 s−1, while areal comparison method yields areal equivalent zonal diffusivity component of inline image m2 s−1. In comparison to Ky, Kx is about twice larger, resulting from the tracer patch stretching by zonal jets. Employed conceptual jet model indicates that zonal jet velocities of about inline image m s−1 are required to explain the enhancement of the zonal eddy diffusivity component. Finally, different sampling strategies are tested on synthetic tracer release experiments. They indicate that the best sampling strategy is a sparse regular sampling grid covering most of the tracer patch.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2023-01-31
    Description: Basement heat flow is one of the key unknowns in sedimentary basin analysis. Its quantification is challenging not in the least due to the various feedback mechanisms between the basin and lithosphere processes. This study explores two main feedbacks, sediment blanketing and thinning of sediments during lithospheric stretching, in a series of synthetic models and a reconstruction case study from the Norwegian Sea. Three types of basin models are used: (1) a newly developed one-dimensional (1D) forward model, (2) a decompaction/backstripping approach and (3) the commercial basin modelling software TECMOD2D for automated forward basin reconstructions. The blanketing effect of sedimentation is reviewed and systematically studied in a suite of 1D model runs. We find that even for moderate sedimentation rates (0.5 mm year−1), basement heat flow is depressed by ∼25% with respect to the case without sedimentation; for high sedimentation rates (1.5 mm year−1), basement heat flow is depressed by ∼50%. We have further compared different methods for computing sedimentation rates from the presently observed stratigraphy. Here, we find that decompaction/backstripping-based methods may systematically underestimate sedimentation rates and total subsidence. The reason for this is that sediments are thinned during lithosphere extension in forward basin models while there are not in backstripping/decompaction approaches. The importance of sediment blanketing and differences in modelling approaches is illustrated in a reconstruction case study from the Norwegian Sea. The thermal and structural evolution of a transect across the Vøring Basin has been reconstructed using the backstripping/decompaction approach and TECMOD2D. Computed total subsidence curves differ by up to ∼3 km and differences in computed basement heat flows reach up to 50%. These findings show that strong feedbacks exist between basin and lithosphere processes and that resolving them require integrated lithosphere-scale basin models.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2023-01-23
    Description: The radiogenic isotope composition of neodymium (Nd) and strontium (Sr) are useful tools to investigate present and past oceanic circulation or input of terrigenous material. We present Nd and Sr isotope compositions extracted from different sedimentary phases, including early diagenetic Fe-Mn coatings, ‘‘unclean’’ foraminiferal shells, fossil fish teeth, and detritus of marine surface sediments (core-tops) covering the entire midlatitude South Pacific. Comparison of detrital Nd isotope compositions to deep water values from the same locations suggests that "boundary exchange" has little influence on the Nd isotope composition of western South Pacific seawater. Concentrations of Rare Earth Elements (REE) and Al/Ca ratios of "unclean" planktonic foraminifera suggest that this phase is a reliable recorder of seawater Nd isotope composition. The signatures obtained from fish teeth and "nondecarbonated" leachates of bulk sediment Fe-Mn oxyhydroxide coatings also agree with "unclean" foraminifera. Direct comparison of Nd isotope compositions extracted using these methods with seawater Nd isotope compositions is complicated by the low accumulation rates yielding radiocarbon ages of up to 24 kyr, thus mixing the signal of different ocean circulation modes. This suggests that different past seawater Nd isotope compositions have been integrated in authigenic sediments from regions with low sedimentation rates. Combined detrital Nd and Sr isotope signatures indicate a dominant role of the Westerly winds transporting lithogenic material from South New Zealand and Southeastern Australia to the open South Pacific. The proportion of this material decreases toward the east, where supply from the Andes increases and contributions from Antarctica cannot be ruled out.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2023-01-04
    Description: Aeolian dust is a key aspect of the climate system. Dust can modify the Earth's energy budget, provide long-range transport of nutrients, and influence land surface processes via erosion. Consequently, effective modeling of the climate system, particularly at regional scales, requires a reasonably accurate representation of dust emission, transport, and deposition. Here we evaluate African dust in 23 state-of-the-art global climate models used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that all models fail to reproduce basic aspects of dust emission and transport over the second half of the twentieth century. The models systematically underestimate dust emission, transport, and optical depth, and year-to-year changes in these properties bear little resemblance to observations. These findings cast doubt on the ability of these models to simulate the regional climate and the response of African dust to future climate change. Key Points: - CMIP5 models underestimate African dust emission and transport - The dust size distribution is biased toward small particles in CMIP5 models - CMIP5 models do not represent coupled processes that involve African dust
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2022-07-04
    Description: Microbial permafrost communities play an important role in carbon cycling and greenhouse gas fluxes. Despite the importance of these processes, there is a lack of knowledge about how environmental and climatic changes affect the abundance and composition of microorganisms. Here, we investigated the changing distribution of permafrost microorganisms in response to climate and lake-level changes. The permafrost core was drilled at the near shore of Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic, and a combined microbiological and lipid biomarker approach was applied. The lower part of the permafrost core, deposited under subaquatic conditions, contains only small amounts of microbial signals; total organic carbon (TOC) content is sparse. After exposure of the site to subaerial conditions during the Allerød, the abundance of Bacteria and Archaea started to increase and the lake-level change is especially evidenced by the relative proportion of archaeal biomarkers. This increase is supported by rising bacterial and archaeal 16S ribosomal ribonucleic acid (rRNA) gene copy numbers and significant amounts of TOC during the late Allerød. After a small decrease during the colder Younger Dryas, the TOC content and the microbial signals strongly increase during the Holocene, presumably stimulated by pedogenesis. The occurrence of intact phospholipids indicates the presence of living microorganisms in these deposits. Our data suggest that methane formation is mainly expected for the subaerial interval, especially the Holocene where methanogens were identified by fingerprinting. This study emphasises the role of the uppermost permafrost deposits as a hotspot of carbon cycling in arctic environments, especially in the light of expected future global warming.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2022-06-10
    Description: A multi-proxy record is presented for approximately the last 4500 cal a BP from Lake Shkodra, Albania/Montenegro. Lithological analyses, C/N ratio and δ13C of the organic and inorganic carbon component suggest that organic matter and bulk carbonate are predominantly authigenic. The δ18O record of bulk carbonate indicates the presence of two prominent wet periods: one at ca. 4300 cal a BP and one at ca. 2500–2000 cal a BP. The latter phase is also found in southern Spain and Central Italy, and represents a prominent event in the western and central Mediterranean. In the last 2000 years, four relatively wet intervals occurred between ca. 1800 and 1500 cal a BP (150–450 AD), 1350–1250 (600–700 AD), 1100–800 (850–1150 AD), and at ca. 90 cal a BP (1860 AD). Between ca. 4100 and 2500 cal a BP δ18O values are relatively high, with three prominent peaks indicating drier conditions at ca. 4100–4000 cal a BP, ca. 3500 and at ca. 3300 cal a BP. Four additional drier events are identified at 1850 (ca. 100 AD), 1400 (ca. 550 AD), 1150 (800 AD) and ca.750 cal a BP (1200 AD). The pollen record does not show changes in accordance with these episodes owing to the poor sensitivity of vegetation in this area, which is dominated by an orographic rainfall effect and where changes in altitudinal vegetation belts do not affect the pollen rain in the lake catchment. However, since ca. 900 cal a BP a significant decrease in the percentage arboreal pollen and in pollen concentrations suggest major deforestation produced by human activities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Description: Published
    Description: 780-789
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Lake Shkodra ; late Holocene ; Mediterranean ; palaeoclimate ; stable isotopes ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.06. Paleoceanography and paleoclimatology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2022-06-10
    Description: Earthquake forecasts are usually underinformed, and can be plagued by uncertainty in terms of the most appropriate model, and parameter values used in that model. In this paper, we explore the application of two different models to the same seismogenic area. The first is a renewal model based on the characteristic earthquake hypothesis that uses historical/palaeoseismic recurrence times, and fixed rupture geometries. The hazard rate is modified by the Coulomb static stress change caused by nearby earthquakes that occurred since the latest characteristic earthquake. The second model is a very simple earthquake simulator based on plate-motion, or fault-slip rates and adoption of a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distribution. This information is commonly available even if historical and palaeoseismic recurrence data are lacking. The intention is to develop and assess a simulator that has a very limited parameter set that could be used to calculate earthquake rates in settings that are not as rich with observations of large-earthquake recurrence behaviour as the Nankai trough. We find that the use of convergence rate as a primary constraint allows the simulator to replicate much of the spatial distribution of observed segmented rupture rates along the Nankai, Tonankai and Tokai subduction zones. Although we note rate differences between the two forecast methods in the Tokai zone, we also see enough similarities between simulations and observations to suggest that very simple earthquake rupture simulations based on empirical data and fundamental earthquake laws could be useful forecast tools in information-poor settings.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1673-1688
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Time series analysis ; Spatial analysis ; Probability distributions ; Seismic cycle ; Earthquake interaction ; forecasting, and prediction ; Statistical seismology. ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2022-06-08
    Description: Although no deterministic and reliable earthquake precursor is known to date, we are steadily gaining insight into probabilistic forecasting that draws on space–time characteristics of earthquake clustering. Clustering-based models aiming to forecast earthquakes within the next 24 hours are under test in the global project ‘Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability’ (CSEP). The 2011 March 11 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan provides a unique opportunity to test the existing 1-day CSEP models against its unprecedentedly active aftershock sequence. The original CSEP experiment performs tests after the catalogue is finalized to avoid bias due to poor data quality. However, this study differs from this tradition and uses the preliminary catalogue revised and updated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is often incomplete but is immediately available. This study is intended as a first step towards operability-oriented earthquake forecasting in Japan. Encouragingly, at least one model passed the test in most combinations of the target day and the testing method, although the models could not take account of the megaquake in advance and the catalogue used for forecast generation was incomplete. However, it can also be seen that all models have only limited forecasting power for the period immediately after the quake. Our conclusion does not change when the preliminary JMAcatalogue is replaced by the finalized one, implying that the models perform stably over the catalogue replacement and are applicable to operational earthquake forecasting. However, we emphasize the need of further research on model improvement to assure the reliability of forecasts for the days immediately after the main quake. Seismicity is expected to remain high in all parts of Japan over the coming years. Our results present a way to answer the urgent need to promote research on time-dependent earthquake predictability to prepare for subsequent large earthquakes in the near future in Japan.
    Description: Published
    Description: 653-658
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Time-series analysis ; Probabilistic forecasting ; Seismicity and tectonics ; Computational seismology ; Statistical seismology ; Asia ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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