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  • 101
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 814-844 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Estimation of cointegrated systems via autoregressive approximation is considered in the framework developed by Saikkonen (1992, Econometric Theory 8, 1-27). The asymptotic properties of the estimated coefficients of the autoregressive error correction model (ECM) and the pure vector autoregressive (VAR) representations are derived under the assumption that the autoregressive order goes to infinity with the sample size. These coefficients are often used for analyzing the relationships between the variables; therefore, they are important for applied work. Tests for linear restrictions on the coefficients of both the ECM and the pure VAR representation are considered under the present assumptions. It is found that they have limiting x2 distributions. Tests are also derived under the assumption that the number of restrictions goes to infinity with the sample size.
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  • 102
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 867-868 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 103
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 871-872 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 104
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 872-874 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 105
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 620-656 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: A model M is said to encompass another model N if the former can explain the results obtained by the latter. In this paper, we propose a general notion of encompassing that covers both classical and Bayesian viewpoints and essentially represents a concept of sufficiency among models. We introduce the parent notion of specificity that aims at measuring lack of encompassing. Tests for encompassing are discussed and the test statistics are compared to Bayesian posterior odds. Operational approximations are offered to cover situations where exact solutions cannot be obtained.
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  • 106
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 733-738 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper establishes conditions for the nonparametric identifiability of the mixed proportional hazards model with time-varying coefficients. Unlike the mixed proportional hazards model, a regressor with two distinct values is not sufficient to identify this model. An unbounded regressor, however, is sufficient for identification.
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  • 107
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 743-744 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 108
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 745-745 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 109
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 749-751 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 110
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 458-480 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: The efficient method of numerical saddlepoint integration is described and applied to calculating the probability distribution of the maximum likelihood and Yule-Walker estimators of the correlation coefficient a of a first-order autoregressive normal time series with initial value either zero or nonzero when a finite number n of data are at hand. Stationary time series of the same type are also treated. Significance points are computed in a number of examples to show how, as n increases, the finite-sample distributions approach the asymptotic distributions that have appeared in the literature.
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  • 111
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 517-567 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Recent advances in the application of game theory to the study of auctions have spawned a growing empirical literature involving both experimental and field data. In this paper, we focus on four different mechanisms (the Dutch, English, first-price sealed-bid, and Vickrey auctions) within one of the most commonly used theoretical models (the independent private values paradigm) to investigate issues of identification, estimation, and testing in parametric structural econometric models of auctions.
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  • 112
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 585-586 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 113
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 592-593 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 114
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 593-595 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 115
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 284-304 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: To obtain consistency results for nonparametric estimators based on stochastic processes relevant in econometrics, we introduce the notions of Hilbert space-valued Lp mixingales and near-epoch dependent arrays, and we prove weak and strong laws of large numbers by using a new exponential inequality for Hilbert (H) space-valued martingale difference arrays. We follow Andrews (1988, Econometric Theory 4, 458–467), Hansen (1991, Econometric Theory 7, 213–221; 1992, Econometric Theory 8, 421–422), Davidson (1993, Statistics and Probability Letters 16,301–304), and de Jong (1995, Econometric Theory 11, 347–358), extending results for H = R and improving memory conditions in certain instances. We give as examples consistency results for series and kernel estimators.
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  • 116
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 347-359 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper establishes stochastic equicontinuity for classes of mixingales. Attention is restricted to Lipschitz-continuous parametric functions. Unlike some other empirical process theory for dependent data, our results do not require bounded functions, stationary processes, or restrictive dependence conditions. Applications are given to martingale difference arrays, strong mixing arrays, and near-epoch dependent arrays.
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  • 117
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 393-393 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 118
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 404-404 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 119
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 404-404 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 120
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 1-2 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 121
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 88-112 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Locally asymptotically optimal tests are derived for the null hypothesis of traditional AR dependence, with unspecified AR coefficients and unspecified innovation densities, against an alternative of periodically correlated AR dependence. Parametric and nonparametric rank-based versions are proposed. Local powers and asymptotic relative efficiencies (with respect, e.g., to the corresponding Gaussian Lagrange multiplier tests proposed in Ghysels and Hall [1992, “Lagrange Multiplier Tests for Periodic Structures,” unpublished manuscript, CRDE, Montreal] and Liitkepohl [1991, Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, Berlin: Springer-Verlag; 1991, pp. 243–264, in W.E. Griffiths, H. Liitkepohl, & M.E. Block (eds.), Readings in Econometric Theory and Practice, Amsterdam: North-Holland] are computed explicitly; a rank-based test of the van der Waerden type is proposed, for which this ARE is uniformly larger than 1. The main technical tool is Le Cam's local asymptotic normality property.
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  • 122
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 187-197 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Recently, Arcones and Giné (1992, pp. 13–47, in R. LePage & L. Billard [eds.], Exploring the Limits of Bootstrap, New York: Wiley) established that the bootstrap distribution of the M-estimator converges weakly to the limit distribution of the estimator in probability. In contrast, Brown and Newey (1992, Bootstrapping for GMM, Seminar note) discovered that the bootstrap distribution of the GMM overidentification test statistic does not converge weakly to the x2 distribution. In this paper, it is shown that the bootstrap distribution of the GMM estimator converges weakly to the limit distribution of the estimator in probability. Asymptotic coverage probabilities of the confidence intervals based on the bootstrap percentile method are thus equal to their nominal coverage probability.
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  • 123
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 201-204 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 124
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 1-7 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 125
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 912-951 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper provides a robust statistical approach to nonstationary time series regression and inference. Fully modified extensions of traditional robust statistical procedures are developed that allow for endogeneities in the nonstationary regressors and serial dependence in the shocks that drive the regressors and the errors that appear in the equation being estimated. The suggested estimators involve semiparametric corrections to accommodate these possibilities, and they belong to the same family as the fully modified least-squares (FM-OLS) estimator of Phillips and Hansen (1990, Review of Economic Studies 57,99–125). Specific attention is given to fully modified least absolute deviation (FM-LAD) estimation and fully modified M (FM-M) estimation. The criterion function for LAD and some M-estimators is not always smooth, and this paper develops generalized function methods to cope with this difficulty in the asymptotics. The results given here include a strong law of large numbers and some weak convergence theory for partial sums of generalized functions of random variables. The limit distribution theory for FM-LAD and FM-M estimators that is developed includes the case of finite variance errors and the case of heavytailed (infinite variance) errors. Some simulations and a brief empirical illustration are reported.
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  • 126
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 1033-1094 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: The paper develops a statistical theory for regressions with integrated regressors of unknown order and unknown cointegrating dimension. In practice, we are often unsure whether unit roots or cointegration is present in time series data, and we are also uncertain about the order of integration in some cases. This paper addresses issues of estimation and inference in cases of such uncertainty. Phillips (1995, Econometrica 63, 1023–1078) developed a theory for time series regressions with an unknown mixture of 1(0) and 1(1) variables and established that the method of fully modified ordinary least squares (FM-OLS) is applicable to models (including vector autoregressions) with some unit roots and unknown cointegrating rank. This paper extends these results to models that contain some I(0), I(1), and I(2) regressors. The theory and methods here are applicable to cointegrating regressions that include unknown numbers of I(0), I(1), and I(2) variables and an unknown degree of cointegration. Such models require a somewhat different approach than that of Phillips (1995). The paper proposes a residual-based fully modified ordinary least-squares (RBFMOLS) procedure, which employs residuals from a first-order autoregression of the first differences of the entire regressor set in the construction of the FMOLS estimator. The asymptotic theory for the RBFM-OLS estimator is developed and is shown to be normal for all the stationary coefficients and mixed normal for all the nonstationary coefficients. Under Gaussian assumptions, estimation of the cointegration space by RBFM-OLS is optimal even though the dimension of the space is unknown.
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  • 127
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 1176-1176 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 128
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 1178-1178 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 129
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 1182-1185 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 130
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 671-698 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper considers a nonparametric conditional moment test of stability of an econometric model against the alternative of instability. The alternative hypothesis allows for more than one structural change, although in this case it has to be fairly smooth. This complements existing results for stability in a parametric setting. Also, it is shown that the test is always consistent, unlike the available “parametric” tests, which normally rely on the assumption of a correct specification of the model, at least under the null hypothesis of no structural instability. Moreover, we show that the test has local power comparable to the parametric ones; that is, its asymptotic efficiency is greater than zero. A Monte Carlo experiment about the performance of our test is described.
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  • 131
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 775-793 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 132
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 796-796 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 133
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 800-802 
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  • 134
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 805-807 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 135
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 403-436 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper develops the asymptotic theory for least absolute deviation estimation of a shift in linear regressions. Rates of convergence and asymptotic distributions for the estimated regression parameters and the estimated shift point are derived. The asymptotic theory is developed both for fixed magnitude of shift and for shift with magnitude converging to zero as the sample size increases. Asymptotic distributions are also obtained for trending regressors and for dependent disturbances. The analysis is carried out in the framework of partial structural change, allowing some parameters not to be influenced by the shift. Efficiency relative to least-squares estimation is also discussed. Monte Carlo analysis is performed to assess how informative the asymptotic distributions are.
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  • 136
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 530-536 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: The definition of causation, discussed in Granger (1980) and elsewhere, has been widely applied in economics and in other disciplines. For this definition, a series yt is said to cause xt+l if it contains information about the forecastability for xt+l contained nowhere else in some large information set, which includes xt−j, j ≥ 0. However, it would be convenient to think of causality being different in extent or direction at seasonal or low frequencies, say, than at other frequencies. The fact that a stationary series is effectively the (uncountably infinite) sum of uncorrelated components, each of which is associated with a single frequency, or a narrow frequency band, introduces the possibility that the full causal relationship can be decomposed by frequency. This is known as the Wiener decomposition or the spectral decomposition of the series, as discussed by Hannan (1970). For any series [...] generated by [...], where xt, and [...] are both stationary, with finite variances and a(B) is a backward filter[...]with B the backward operator, there is a simple, well-known relationship between the spectral decompositions of the two series.
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  • 137
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 597-624 
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  • 138
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 637-638 
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  • 139
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 371-383 
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  • 140
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 399-400 
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  • 141
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 400-400 
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  • 142
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 401-402 
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  • 143
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 386-388 
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  • 144
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 389-391 
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  • 145
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 392-397 
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  • 146
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 402-402 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: In the solution to Problem 93.2.3 by Paolo Paruolo, γ* ≡ (β, ,Ik)′ should be replaced by γ* ≡ (βí,I*)′ throughout the text; the same change should be made for [...]*; γ should be replaced by γ* in the second line and two lines before the references; “left-hand side” should be “right-hand side” in the second line after (4); “column” should be replaced by “row” in the last line before the references. Finally, reference \1] is Preprint 1992.2, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, University of Copenhagen; submitted to Econometric Theory.
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  • 147
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 1-24 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper considers the properties of systems likelihood procedures for cointegrated systems when the I(2) variables are present. Two alternative methods are proposed: one is based on the full system likelihood, whereas another is based on the subsystem likelihood. By eliminating all unit roots in the system by the use of prior information concerning the presence of unit roots, these procedures yield estimates whose asymptotic distributions are mixed normal, free from nuisance parameters, and median-unbiased. Both methods are extensions of a full system maximum likelihood procedure by Phillips (1991a) to I(2) models. Three cases of cointegration with I(2) variables are considered in order to cover a wide variety of cointegration relationships. A triangular ECM representation and the two ML estimates are derived for each case, and the asymptotics are discussed as well. The asymptotic efficiency concerning the two estimates are considered.
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 151-189 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: The asymptotic behavior of the sample paths of two popular statistics that test market efficiency are investigated when markets learn to have rational expectations. Two cases are investigated, where, should markets start out at a rational expectations equilibrium, both statistics would asymptotically generate standard Brownian motions. In a first case, where agents are Bayesian and payoffs exogenous, the statistics have identical sample paths, but they are not standard Brownian motions. Whereas the finite-dimensional distributions are Gaussian, there may be a bias if agents' initial beliefs differ. A second case is considered, where payoffs are in part endogenous, yet agents consider them to be drawn from a stationary, exogenous distribution, which they attempt to learn in a frequentist way. In that case, one statistic behaves as if the economy were at a rational expectations equilibrium from the beginning on. The other statistic has sample paths with substantially non-Gaussian finite-dimensional distributions. Moreover, there is a negative bias. The behavior of the two statistics in the second case matches remarkably well the empirical results in an investigation of the prices of six foreign currency contracts over the period 1973–1990.
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  • 149
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    Modern Asian studies 31 (1997), S. 1-9 
    ISSN: 0026-749X
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
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  • 150
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    Modern Asian studies 31 (1997), S. 847-877 
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
    Notes: The medical profession in modern China comprised two radically different schools—modern (Western) medicine and native medicine. The difference in philosophy, theory, and technique made a conflict between the two schools almost inevitable, and the conflict was intensified by the modernization process that was quickened during the Republican period. Western-trained or modern doctors advocated national salvation through science and denounced native medicine as superstitious, unscientific, and an impediment to the development of medical science in China. On the other hand, native medical practitioners insisted that what they learned and practiced was part of the national essence (guocui) and should be protected against the cultural invasion of imperialism (diguo zhuyi wenhua qinlue) including Western medicine. To be sure, both sides used such rhetoric to camouflage the business competition between them, but this rivalry and its implications did point to a profound cultural conflict between Chinese tradition and Western influence in China's modernization. It epitomized a burning issue of the day: whether or not China's modernization meant Westernization and whether a respectable position for China in the modern world was to be achieved through Westernization or preservation of what was regarded or claimed as national heritage.
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    Modern Asian studies 31 (1997), S. 31-59 
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    Notes: AbstarctA major transformation has occurred in rural China since reform policies were initiated in 1979. It has been particularly dramatic in the highly commercialized Pearl River delta region of the southern province of Guangdong, provenance of most North Americans of Chinese origin. The delta region has become firmly incorporated into the global economy and its external linkages, especially to Hong Kong, have been central in the process of change. The responses to reform in the areas of the delta dominated by an Overseas Chinese presence have been distinctive. Varied family economic strategies have arisen to meet the opportunities implicit in the new policies for rural reform in a region in which remittances from abroad are significant. There has also been the revival of complex kinship groupings (lineages) energized by Overseas Chinese communities, which have assumed important roles in regional economic development.
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    Modern Asian studies 31 (1997), S. 177-207 
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    Notes: Pakistan is an ideologically inspired state and Urdu was a part of this ideology. During the development of Muslim separatism in British India it had become a symbol of Muslim identity and was the chief rival of Hindi, the symbol of Hindu identity (Brass, 1974: 119–81. Thus, after partition it was not surprising that the Muslim polemical and methodologically unreliable books. Some of them are, indeed, part of the pro-Urdu campaign by such official institutions as the National Language Authority, because of which they articulate only the official language policy (Kamran, 1992). Other books, especially by supporters of Urdu, invoke simplistic conspiracy theories for explaining the opposition to Urdu. One of them is that the elitist supporters of English have always conspired to protect it in their self-interest; the other that ethno-nationalists, supported by foreign governments, communists and anti-state agents, oppose Urdu (Abdullah, 1976; Barelvi 1987). While such assertions may be partly true, the defect of the publications is that no proof is offered in support of them.
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    Modern Asian studies 31 (1997), S. 218-221 
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    Modern Asian studies 30 (1996), S. 1-1 
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    Modern Asian studies 31 (1997), S. 463-546 
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    Notes: Although the question has assumed at least two principal forms, most scholars who would compare the history of Europe and Asia have long been absorbed with a single query: Why was Asia different?
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    Modern Asian studies 31 (1997), S. 583-601 
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    Notes: Although they still differ considerably in their willingness to acknowledge it, specialists in the history of north-western Europe in the eleventh and twelfth centuries CE are increasingly treating it as that of the emergence of a new civilization in what had previously been a peripheral region of the Mediterranean-based civilization of the classical west, rather than as a continuation or revival of that civilization itself. In this light Europe, or Latin Christendom as it saw itself, offers a number of striking resemblances to the developments which Lieberman discusses. The most dynamic regions of the new Europe—north-western France, Flanders and lowland England, north-eastern Spain, northern Italy, southern Italy and Sicily—were all peripheral, though in various senses, both to the long-defunct classical civilization and its direct successors, the Byzantine and Abbasid Empires, and to the transitional and much more loosely based ninth-and tenth-century empires of the Franks and Saxons (Ottonians). To this one might add that by the end of the twelfth century the remaining rimlands of the Eurasian continent in a purely geographical sense—Scandinavia, including Iceland, and still more the southern coast of the Baltic and the areas dominated by the rivers which drained into it—were developing very rapidly indeed.
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    Modern Asian studies 31 (1997), S. 689-709 
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    Notes: Despite the serious studies of the past century, the history of Mainland Southeast Asia is still poorly understood. This is not to say that we do not have numerous studies of particular countries and events in individual countries; but, despite the efforts of Victor Lieberman, Anthony Reid, and others, we still lack a comprehensive sense of the dynamics of the premodern history of long periods on a region-wide basis.
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    Modern Asian studies 31 (1997), S. 1-6 
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    Modern Asian studies 31 (1997), S. 245-283 
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    Notes: This is an essay about the establishment and expanding roles of the colonial state in India, and their probable correlation with developments of Indian identity. As I have argued elsewhere, identities are always multiple, contingent and continuously constructed, so that traditions, also continually reinvented, are shared and reiterated practices and beliefs which reflect the collective memories of previous constructions. There is no analytical contradiction therefore between long-term civilizational continuities and emerging forms of ‘constructed’ identity. This paper is about a particular form of identity that is currently associated with concepts of public space and rights, and with the nation-state, or at least political and territorial units. For convenience I refer to it as ‘modern Indian identity’ because it has been defined and been growing in significance in the modern era; but no inference should be drawn that I consider it to be the only form in India.
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    Modern Asian studies 31 (1997), S. 339-374 
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    Notes: Nationalist activity in India between the years 1909 and 1916 has generally received an inadequate treatment from historians. It seems, quite simply, that this period is not sensational enough and historical accounts tend to skip from the excitement of the Swadeshi movement, the ‘Moderate’—‘Extremist’ split, the so-called ‘Extremist’ movement in general, and the Morley—Minto reforms of 1909 only to stop at the emergence of the Home Rule leagues or, even more likely, the serious political emergence of Gandhi after 1917. For example, despite writing of ‘continuities’ from 1885 to 1947, even Sumit Sarkar sees the nationalist movement expanding ‘in a succession of waves and troughs, the obvious high-points being 1905–1908, 1919–1922, 1928–1934, 1942 and 1945–46.’ Effectively, he is saying that the years from 1908 to 1919 were characterized by a ‘trough’ or lull.
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    Modern Asian studies 30 (1996), S. 721-725 
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    Modern Asian studies 30 (1996), S. 225-269 
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    Notes: Some time ago the Commonwealth and Overseas History Society of Cambridge University asked me to provide an overview of recent scholarship on modern Chinese history. What follows is a written version of this ‘public service’ lecture aimed at non-specialist historians. It discusses Western scholarship on China from the eighteenth until the twentieth century.
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    Modern Asian studies 30 (1996), S. 357-385 
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    Notes: Studies on Indian artisans in the recent times have tended to be guided by the notion of a world market which, it is believed, drove them towards obsolescence through changing tastes or productivity. This framework, however, is not without problems. First, the presence of older industries in modern India, or their long continuance, tends to be seen in terms of ‘survivals’ or ‘revivals’, which terms deny them any inherent dynamics. On the other hand, the impression that many of them ‘survive’ today in strikingly modernized forms, utilizing production and marketing institutions vastly different from those that prevailed a hundred years ago, would demand of historians an account of how old industries evolve, and become integrated into the rest of the economy. Secondly, the crux of the world market story is the economy's opening up to trade. That foreign trade had a critical impact on crafts such as textiles, partially decimated by imports, or leather, where trade commercialized an erstwhile custom-bound exchange, is indisputable. But there are other notable examples where the effect of trade was benign, minor, or indirect, where artisans remained producers of a mass consumable; and where neither did they face significant competition from imported goods, nor were reduced to fodder for metropolitan industrialization. Yet they changed profoundly. In a way, their history reflects not the play of a dominant exogenous process, but the totality of the economy's structural change. Crafts history does not yet provide us with prototypes of this endogenous transformation.
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    Modern Asian studies 30 (1996), S. 447-467 
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    Notes: The book Angāre, a collection of ten short stories by Sajjād Ẓahīr, Rashīd Jahān, Aḥmed 'Alī and Maḥmūduzẓafar published in Lucknow in December 1932, marks a major turning point in the history of Urdu literature. Acting as a powerful catalyst, it initiated a major change in the form and content of Urdu literature and helped to lay the basis for the establishment of the Progressive Writers Association, the most significant Urdu literary movement of the twentieth century.
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    Modern Asian studies 30 (1996), S. 423-445 
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    Notes: Religion in India has always been profoundly politicized, which is why it has remained of enduring importance, instead of ‘withering away’ as in the West. Though its presence is somewhat hidden in parties that profess a secular view, it is of vital importance, at the local village level, as a focus for the organization of political factions. More precisely, even if local political parties in Tamilnadu do not organize around religion, they use religion and ritual events for their political purposes, in their struggles to dominate local politics. The fact that this politicization of religious ritual is implicit, not explicit, only testifies to the fact that power-relationships—and struggles—exist in all aspects of life (as Foucault often noted), including apparently ‘innocent’ rites such as religious possession.
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    Modern Asian studies 30 (1996), S. 1-28 
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    Notes: One consequence of the democratization of Eastern Europe has been a sharp reduction in the provision of development assistance by the former Communist countries. At its high point in the mid-1980s, aid from Communist Eastern Europe to the developing countries is estimated to have peaked at between $516–537 million a year, supplementing Soviet aid of some $4–4.5 billion. Taken together, it is estimated that Soviet and East European Communist aid represented nearly 10% of total world Official Development Assistance (ODA) disbursements during that period. Following the political changes that wrought democratization to Eastern Europe, these aid flows declined drastically or even ceased. This downward shift in aid reflected a profound and widespread aversion to any ongoing East European role in international development.
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    Modern Asian studies 30 (1996), S. 145-172 
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    Notes: This paper investigages the role of the Peninsular & Oriental Steam Navigation Co. (P&O) in the maritime organization of the Asian specie network between 1850 and 1920. In this period the specie network comprised several strands and layers but this paper will concentrate on those involving the flow of gold from Australia to India.
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    Modern Asian studies 30 (1996), S. 221-224 
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    Modern Asian studies 30 (1996), S. 1-5 
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    Modern Asian studies 30 (1996), S. 77-119 
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    Notes: The indigenous population in Java, it is generally believed, remained by and large subsistence peasants under the colonial rule in the nineteenth century. It is argued that the Javanese could not participate in the estate plantation industry or ‘transform their general pattern of already intensive farming in an extensive direction, for they lacked capital, had no way to shuck off excess labor’. Their access to waste land to became restricted and consequently they sought refuge in the wet-rice cultivation which ‘soaked up almost the whole of the’ population in a process of ‘agricultural involution’, which ‘went on steadily’ during the nineteenthcentury.’ Thus Javanese were confined to the subsistence agriculture for their living because they had neither. capital nor opportunity to embark upon a path of economic development characterized by economic diversity.
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    Modern Asian studies 30 (1996), S. 185-220 
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    Notes: This essay concerns the labile boundary between the familiar and the exotic in an early nineteenth-century Orientalist text, entitled Annals and Antiquities of Rajast'han, by James Tod. Written by the first British political agent to the western Rajput states, Tod's Rajast'han, particularly the several chapters he devoted to the so-called ‘feudal system’ of Rajasthan, remained implicated in colonial policy toward western India for over a century. By situating Tod's Rajast'han in the specific circumstances in which it was written and then tracing the fate of that text against a historical background, this essay aims to restore an open-ended, historical sensibility to studies on Orientalism that most critics of Orientalist writing have ironically forfeited in their laudable efforts to restore history to the indigenous peoples who have been the objects of Orientalist discourse.
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    Modern Asian studies 29 (1995), S. 1-16 
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    Modern Asian studies 29 (1995), S. 765-794 
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    Notes: A social problem in one country may often be held up as an example to others, but it is rare for it to bring forth an internationally coordinated response with a world-wide application. One of these rarities is the campaign against ‘hard’ drugs. While liquor laws differ widely from country to country, the modern system of laws against cocaine and the opiates have been established by international convention. These arrangements evolved out of the measures taken to help imperial China with its opium problem, which was regarded, at least in part, as a foreign responsibility arising out of the vast quantities of Indian opium which had been imported by foreigners into China throughout the nineteenth century, often in questionable circumstances. The behaviour of the opium merchants and their governments seemed all the more reprehensible because of the encouragement which it gave to the Chinese to break their own government's laws against opium smoking and poppy cultivation. The first International Opium Commission met in Shanghai in 1909 and passed a number of resolutions to help China; it also laid down principles of co-operation between producing and consuming countries which tended logically to expand in scope and force, leading to a global system of control of all narcotic substances, and to the institutionalization of these arrangements under the League and the United Nations.
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    Modern Asian studies 29 (1995), S. 893-927 
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    Notes: During an evening's conversation in September of 1989 in Hyderabad, two educated men: onea retired professor of economics, the other a civil servant whose avocation was lexicography, entered into a spirited and lengthy debate over the proper way of translating ‘fundamentalist’ into Urdu. The lexicographer argued that ‘bunyād-parast (lit: one who loves the basics)’ was the most accurate as it conveyed not only the English meaning, but also the reality of what a fundamentalist Muslim believed. In opposition, the economist held that ‘mullah-yī (lit: like a mullah)’ was culturally more correct. The ‘foundation’ implied by bunyad was not specifically religious. It could apply to the fundamentals of anything: grammar, for example. In addition, he argued that what fundamentalists really did was to dress, act and talk like mullahs. In a sense, both were correct, because each was struggling over the transfer of a notion alien to traditional Islam into the vocabulary of a living language through which Muslims interact.
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    Modern Asian studies 29 (1995), S. 705-740 
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    Notes: The purpose of this study is to shed light on an aspect of seventeenth century Anglo-Dutch relations that has hitherto been virtually neglected: the rivalry over the Banda Islands. I will point out how economic antagonism between England and the Dutch Republic, a topic that as a rule is mainly regarded in a European context, also erupted in the East-Indian sphere of expansion, even in remote areas such as Banda. Unlike in Europe, in Asia conflicting economic interests immediately and repeatedly resulted in open violence. This was stopped in 1619 by a treaty of cooperation that paradoxically enabled the Dutch to establish themselves even more firmly in these islands, and in the Indonesian Archipelago as a whole, in a way detrimental to the English.
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    Modern Asian studies 29 (1995), S. 655-703 
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    Notes: In 1920, Sikhs in the Punjab started a campaign aimed at freeing their principal gurdwaras (temples) from the control of their hereditary incumbents. The campaign quickly gathered momentum, and, within a few months, it developed into a non-violent anti-government movement. Unlike the rather shortlived 1919 Disturbances and the Non-Cooperation-Khilafat movement in the Punjab, the Sikh agitation, which came to be known as the Akali movement, did not cease until 1925 and caused considerable concern to the Punjab authorities, as well as the Government of India. The Akali movement was not limited, as in past cases of anti-British agitation involving the Sikhs, to small groups of disaffected Sikhs, returned emigrants, or Congress sympathizers; at its height in 1922, the unrest encompassed the bulk of central Punjab's Jat Sikh peasantry, one of the most militarized sections of Punjabi society. The Sikh community's martial traditions, fostered by their religious doctrines and culture, had been kept alive during British rule by the recruitment policies of the Indian Army, where, in 1920, one in every fourteen adult male Sikhs in the Punjab was in service. This meant that the abiding allegiance of the Sikh community to the Raj was a matter of considerable importance, and their estrangement, especially that of the Jat Sikh peasantry, would adversely affect the Sikh regiments of the Indian Army. It also meant that if the community as a whole was provoked into open rebellion, British hold on the Punjab could well nigh prove untenable.
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 235-247 
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    Notes: It is sometimes believed that technical apects of a theorem have little to do with the policy implications of the theorem. On the contrary, in this paper we argue that for the Coase Theorem, the technical details are very important in understanding the potential policy implications, since the two interact in a way that leads to a dilemma: a formally correct version of the theorem that yields the usual conclusions requires assumptions that are too restrictive to give the theorem much policy relevance. On the other hand, relaxing the assumptions of the theorem to be sufficiently plausible to be applicable in real world settings modifies the conclusions of the theorem.
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 269-282 
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 249-267 
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    Notes: In a published debate between Law and Economics avatar Judge Richard Posner and Professor Robin Malloy entitled ‘Is Law and Economics Moral?’, Malloy argued that the dominant methodology of Law and Economics (Posner's Chicago-style wealth maximization) is immoral. Malloy likened it to the Frankenstein Monster – an unholy, undead abomination that can go berserk despite its ostensibly benign provenience. Malloy claimed that wealth maximization applied to social discourse ‘reduces people to an human existence to imaginary variables for calculation’.
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 283-288 
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 289-295 
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 302-307 
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 127-136 
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 144-152 
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 152-159 
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    Economics and philosophy 13 (1997), S. 175-196 
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    Notes: In a recent paper, Pierluigi Barrotta (1996) argues that Mises ‘ended up by defending an epistemological tenet very far from Kant's’ (p. 51), concluding that ‘Mises's apriorism cannot be vindicated through Kant's epistemology’ (p. 65). In contrast, I shall argue that certain of Mises's arguments can be reconstructed in Kantian terms, and thus the distance between Mises and Kant is not as extreme as Barrotta's argument may appear to suggest. Specifically, I shall argue that Mises, like Kant, seeks to establish the a priori nature of the category of causality. To this extent at least, Mises's apriorism can be vindicated through Kant's epistemology.
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    Economics and philosophy 13 (1997), S. 231-240 
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    Notes: Kuhn and Moresi (1995) (henceforth, K&M) have proposed a useful taxonomy for classifying prisoners' dilemmas (henceforth, PDs). This comment is concerned with K&M's observation that legal penalties for defection can transform PDs into cooperative games, and their argument that the role of the law may vary depending on how the PD is classified by their taxonomy. The purpose of this note is to support K&M's analysis by demonstrating that the law of damages, as understood by economic analysis, already performs the function that K&M assign to legal penalties for defection.
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    Economics and philosophy 13 (1997), S. 261-280 
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    Notes: In modern economics, the use of sympathy and empathy shows significant ambiguity. Sympathy has been used in two different senses. First, it refers to cases where the concern for others directly affects an individual's own welfare (Sen, 1977). Second, the term has served the purposes of welfare economics, where it is associated with interpersonal comparisons of the extended sympathy type, that is, comparisons between one's own situation in a social state and someone else's in a different social state (Arrow, 1963 [1951]). On the other hand, empathy has been used interchangeably with sympathy either to render the idea of interdependent utility functions (Leibenstein, 1976), or to convey the imaginative process of imagining oneself in someone else's place (Harsanyi, 1977).
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    Economics and philosophy 13 (1997), S. 241-259 
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    Notes: In spite of the numerous occasions on which Adam Smith expresses his reservations regarding the morality of commercial societies, there seems to be an agreement that he believed such systems to be fundamentally just. To some, this is so because they attribute to Smith a concept of justice which is narrowly confined to the ‘right to have [one's] body free from injury, and [one's] liberty free from infringement’ (Lectures on Jurisprudence, p. 401). In a world where people have an interest in the fortune of others regardless of how selfish their motives for action might be, injuring someone else's body or restricting someone else's liberty is unlikely to be the behavioural norm.To others, natural liberty in the sphere of economic activity is just not only because individuals behind the system naturally comply with justice in its commutative sense, but also because the system itself generates justice in the distributive sense. Such arguments are based on either the working of the invisible hand — which produces the ‘same distribution of the necessities of life, which would have been made, had the earth been divided into equal portions among all its inhabitants ...’ (TMS, p. 185) — or on the approval of the ‘impartial spectator’ of the distribution which is associated with the natural price (Young, 1986).
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    Economics and philosophy 12 (1996), S. 133-163 
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    Notes: Deliberation about what to do in any context requires reasoning about what will or would happen in various alternative situations, including situations that the agent knows will never in fact be realized. In contexts that involve two or more agents who have to take account of each others' deliberation, the counterfactual reasoning may become quite complex. When I deliberate, I have to consider not only what the causal effects would be of alternative choices that I might make, but also what other agents might believe about the potential effects of my choices, and how their alternative possible actions might affect my beliefs. Counterfactual possibilities are implicit in the models that game theorists and decision theorists have developed – in the alternative branches in the trees that model extensive form games and the different cells of the matrices of strategic form representations – but much of the reasoning about those possibilities remains in the informal commentary on and motivation for the models developed. Puzzlement is sometimes expressed by game theorists about the relevance of what happens in a game ‘off the equilibrium path’: of what would happen if what is (according to the theory) both true and known by the players to be true were instead false.
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    Economics and philosophy 12 (1996), S. 1-6 
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    Notes: What distinguishes preference utilitarianism (PU) from other utilitarian positions is the axiological component: the view concerning what is intrinsically valuable. According to PU, intrinsic value is based on preferences. Intrinsically valuable states are connected to our preferences (wants, desires) being satisfied.
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    Economics and philosophy 12 (1996), S. 29-49 
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    Notes: Jon Elster reports that in 1940, and again in 1970, the U.S. draft lottery was challenged for falling short of the legally mandated ‘random selection’ (1989, pp. 45–6). On both occasions, the physical mixing of the lots appeared to be incomplete, since the birth dates were clustered in a way that would have been extremely unlikely if the lots were fully mixed. There appears to have been no suspicion on either occasion that the deficiency in the mixing was intended, known, or believed to favor or disfavor any identifiable group. If the selection was non-random in the way charged, Elster asks, was it unfair?
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    Economics and philosophy 12 (1996), S. 51-66 
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    Notes: More than many other Austrians, Mises tried to found aprioristic methodology on a well defined and developed epistemology. Although references to Kant are scattered rather unsystematically throughout his works, he nevertheless used an unequivocal Kantian terminology. He explicitly defended the existence of ‘a priori knowledge’, ‘synthetic a priori propositions’, ‘the category of action’, and so forth.
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    Economics and philosophy 12 (1996), S. 89-95 
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    Economics and philosophy 12 (1996), S. 96-100 
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    Economics and philosophy 12 (1996), S. 67-88 
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    Notes: The most important analytical tool in non-cooperative game theory is the concept of a Nash equilibrium, which is a collection of possibly mixed strategies, one for each player, with the property that each player's strategy is a best reply to the strategies of the other players. If we do not go into normative game theory, which concerns itself with the recommendation of strategies, and focus instead entirely on the positive theory of prediction, two alternative interpretations of the Nash equilibrium concept are predominantly available.In the more traditional one, a Nash equilibrium is a prediction of actual play. A game may not have a Nash equilibrium in pure strategies, and a mixed strategy equilibrium may be difficult to incorporate into this interpretation if it involves the idea of actual randomization over equally good pure strategies. In another interpretation originating from Harsanyi (1973a), see also Rubinstein (1991), and Aumann and Brandenburger (1991), a Nash equilibrium is a ‘consistent’ collection of probabilistic expectations, conjectures, on the players. It is consistent in the sense that for each player each pure strategy, which has positive probability according to the conjecture about that player, is indeed a best reply to the conjectures about others.
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    Economics and philosophy 12 (1996), S. 101-104 
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    Economics and philosophy 12 (1996), S. 104-108 
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