ALBERT

Description: Existing economic analysis of corn stover as an energy feedstock has not considered potential changes in land use associated with different stover prices. We estimate the response of corn stover supply density to its price driven by changes in land use and examine its implications for a processing plant's pricing strategy and marginal cost, as well as associated changes in soil erosion. We find that plants will exploit the intensive margin as well as the extensive margin to secure additional amounts of stover. Our results show, counterintuitively, that a market for stover may result in lower soil erosion due to reallocations of land to continuous corn with removal, which, combined with no-till farming, results in lower soil erosion than the baseline without stover removal. Also contrary to expectations, using cover crops with stover removal may result in higher soil erosion due to land use changes within the fuel shed associated with optimal pricing.

Description: While the kinematics of Anatolia plate and the North Anatolian Fault System (NAFS) has been studied extensively, the slip rate and locking depth along the NAFS are usually assumed constant in the analyses due to the lack of sufficient data. This is also partly due to the reasonably good fit of Euler small circle and partly due to the lack of spatial resolution of observations to determine slip rates independently from locking depths. On the other hand, recent geodetic studies show a contrast for locking depth between Marmara and other parts of the NAFS, implying a non-uniform locking depth across the NAFS. In this study, we analyse new GPS data and homogenously combine available data sets covering the eastern part of the NAFS to form the most complete data set. In particular, we incorporate the first results of Turkish Real-Time Kinematic GPS Network (CORS-TR) into our data set. A detailed analysis of three profiles within the NAFS reveals an increase of locking depth in the middle profile to 19.1 ± 3.4 km from 11.9 ± 3.5 km in the easternmost profile while the slip rate is nearly constant (20–22 mm yr –1 ), which implies a variation of strain rate of ~100 nanostrain yr –1 . Assuming a constant locking depth throughout whole NAFS gives an average locking depth of 14.3 ± 1.7 km. Our best estimates of slip rates in block modelling which takes the variation of locking depths into account are in the range between 22.5 and 22.8 mm yr –1 over eastern part of the NAFS.

Description: Seismic waves sensitive to the outermost part of the Earth's liquid core seem to be affected by a stably stratified layer at the core–mantle boundary. Such a layer could have an observable signature in both long-term and short-term variations of the magnetic field of the Earth, which are used to probe the flow at the top of the core. Indeed, with the recent SWARM mission, it seems reasonable to be able to identify waves propagating in the core with period of several months, which may play an important role in the large-scale dynamics. In this paper, we characterize the influence of a stratified layer at the top of the core on deep quasi-geostrophic (Rossby) waves. We compute numerically the quasi-geostrophic eigenmodes of a rapidly rotating spherical shell, with a stably stratified layer near the outer boundary. Two simple models of stratification are taken into account, which are scaled with commonly adopted values of the Brunt–Väisälä frequency in the Earth's core. In the absence of magnetic field, we find that both azimuthal wavelength and frequency of the eigenmodes control their penetration into the stratified layer: the higher the phase speed, the higher the permeability of the stratified layer to the wave motion. We also show that the theory developed by Takehiro & Lister for thermal convection extends to the whole family of Rossby waves in the core. Adding a magnetic field, the penetrative behaviour of the quasi-geostrophic modes (the so-called fast branch) is insensitive to the imposed magnetic field and only weakly sensitive to the precise shape of the stratification. Based on these results, the large-scale and high-frequency modes (1–2 month periods) may be detectable in the geomagnetic data measured at the Earth's surface, especially in the equatorial area where the modes can be trapped.

Description: The Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ) is one of the world's most productive regions of rhyolitic volcanism and contains the highly active Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC). Within the TVZ, intra-arc extension is expressed as normal faulting within a zone known as the Taupo Rift. The OVC is located within a complex part of the rift, where volcanism and deformation is considered influenced by rift structure and kinematics. There has been significant research on the structural, volcanic and geophysical properties of the rift and OVC, but less focus on deformation using geodetic data. The limited studies that have utilized geodetic data do not clearly resolve the distribution of deformation and strain rates within the rift and OVC. This is essential to ensure that deformation signals from volcanic processes at the OVC are correctly identified and distinguished from those related to regional tectonic or local hydrothermal processes within the rift. In this paper, we present a picture of contemporary deformation at the OVC and within the surrounding rift in detail, using existing and new GPS campaign and continuous GPS (cGPS) data collected between 1998 and 2011. The results show a highly heterogeneous deformation and strain rate field (both extension and shortening) through the study area, partitioned into different parts of the rift. Our results agree well with earlier geodetic studies, as well as identify new features, but some deformation patterns conflict with long-term geological observations. In the OVC, we observe a locally rotated horizontal velocity field, significant vertical deformation and variable strain rates across the caldera. In the Tarawera Rift, we identify elevated extension and shear rates, which may have significant implications for volcanism there. A shortening pattern is identified through the central rift, which is unexpected in an intra-arc rifting environment. We attempt to explain the source/s of shortening and extension and discuss their implications for geodetic monitoring efforts in the OVC.

Description: The pre- and current collision of the Juan Fernández Ridge with the central Chilean margin at 31°–33°S is characterized by large-scale crustal thinning and long-term subsidence of the submarine forearc caused by subduction erosion processes. Here, we study the structure of the central Chilean margin in the ridge–trench collision zone by using wide-angle and multichannel seismic data. The transition from the upper to middle continental slope is defined by a trenchward dipping normal scarp with variable offsets of 500–2000 m height. Beneath the scarp, the 2-D velocity–depth models show a prominent lateral velocity contrast of 〉1 s –1 that propagates deep into the continental crust defining a major lateral seismic discontinuity. The discontinuity is interpreted as the lithological contact between the subsided/collapsed outermost forearc (composed of eroded and highly fractured volcanic rocks) and the seaward part of the uplifted Coastal Cordillera (made of less fractured metamorphic/igneous rocks). Extensional faults are abundant in the collapsed outermost forearc, however, landward of the continental slope scarp, both extensional and compressional structures are observed along the uplifted continental shelf that forms part of the Coastal Cordillera. Particularly, at the landward flank of the Valparaíso Forearc Basin (32°–33.5°S), shallow crustal seismicity has been recorded in 2008–2009 forming a dense cluster of thrust events of M w 4–5. The estimated hypocentres spatially correlate with the location of the fault scarp, and they highlight the upper part of the seismic crustal discontinuity.

Description: Geodetic observations of interseismic deformation in the Western United States provide constraints on microplate rotations, earthquake cycle processes, and slip partitioning across the Pacific–North America Plate boundary. These measurements may be interpreted using block models, in which the upper crust is divided into microplates bounded by faults that accumulate strain in a first-order approximation of earthquake cycle processes. The number and geometry of microplates are typically defined with boundaries representing a limited subset of the large number of potentially seismogenic faults. An alternative approach is to include a large number of potentially active faults bounding a dense array of microplates, and then algorithmically estimate the boundaries at which strain is localized. This approach is possible through the application of a total variation regularization (TVR) optimization algorithm, which simultaneously minimizes the L 2 norm of data residuals and the L 1 norm of the variation in the differential block motions. Applied to 3-D spherical block models, the TVR algorithm can be used to reduce the total variation between estimated rotation vectors, effectively grouping microplates that rotate together as larger blocks, and localizing fault slip on the boundaries of these larger block clusters. Here we develop a block model comprised of 137 microplates derived from published fault maps, and apply the TVR algorithm to identify the kinematically most important faults in the western United States. This approach reveals that of the 137 microplates considered, only 30 unique blocks are required to approximate deformation in the western United States at a residual level of 〈2 mm yr –1 .

Description: We develop and validate a systematic approach to infer plate boundary strength and rheological parameters in models of mantle flow from surface velocity observations. Based on a realistic rheological model that includes yielding and strain rate weakening from dislocation creep, we formulate the inverse problem in a Bayesian inference framework. To study the distribution of parameters that are consistent with the observations, we compute the maximum a posteriori (MAP) point, Gaussian approximations of the parameter distribution around that MAP point, and employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods. The computation of the MAP point and the Gaussian approximation require first and second derivatives of an objective function subject to non-linear Stokes equations; these derivatives are computed efficiently using adjoint Stokes equations. We set up 2-D numerical experiments with many of the elements expected in a global geophysical inversion. This setup incorporates three subduction zones with slab and weak zone (interplate fault) geometry consistent with average seismic characteristics. With these experiments, we demonstrate that when the temperature field is known, we can recover the strength of plate boundaries, the yield stress and strain rate exponent in the upper mantle. When the number of uncertain parameters increases, there are trade-offs between the inferred parameters. These trade-offs depend on how well the observational data represents the surface velocities, and on the weakness of plate boundaries. As the plate boundary coupling drops below a threshold, the uncertainty of the inferred parameters increases due to insensitivity of plate motion to plate coupling. Comparing the trade-offs between inferred rheological parameters found from the Gaussian approximation of the parameter distribution and from MCMC sampling, we conclude that the Gaussian approximation—which is significantly cheaper to compute—is often a good approximation, in particular locally around the MAP point. Thus, the method can be applied to the global problem of inferring non-linear constitutive parameters and plate coupling factors for each subduction zone in a global geophysical inversion with known slab structure.

Description: A 3-D magnetotelluric (MT) inversion code using unstructured tetrahedral elements has been developed in order to correct the topographic effect by directly incorporating it into computational grids. The electromagnetic field and response functions get distorted at the observation sites of MT surveys because of the undulating surface topography, and without correcting this distortion, the subsurface structure can be misinterpreted. Of the two methods proposed to correct the topographic effect, the method incorporating topography explicitly in the inversion is applicable to a wider range of surveys. For forward problems, it has been shown that the finite element method using unstructured tetrahedral elements is useful for the incorporation of topography. Therefore, this paper shows the applicability of unstructured tetrahedral elements in MT inversion using the newly developed code. The inversion code is capable of using the impedance tensor, the vertical magnetic transfer function (VMTF), and the phase tensor as observational data, and it estimates the subsurface resistivity values and the distortion tensor of each observation site. The forward part of the code was verified using two test models, one incorporating topographic effect and one without, and the verifications showed that the results were almost the same as those of previous works. The developed inversion code was then applied to synthetic data from a MT survey, and was verified as being able to recover the resistivity structure as well as other inversion codes. Finally, to confirm its applicability to the data affected by topography, inversion was performed using the synthetic data of the model that included two overlapping mountains. In each of the cases using the impedance tensor, the VMTF and the phase tensor, by including the topography in the mesh, the subsurface resistivity was determined more proficiently than in the case using the flat-surface mesh. Although the locations of the anomalies were not accurately estimated by the inversion using distorted impedance tensors due to the slightly undervalued gain, these locations were correctly estimated by using undistorted impedance tensors or adding VMTFs in the data. Therefore, it can be concluded that the inversion using the unstructured tetrahedral element effectively prevents the misinterpretation of subsurface resistivity and recovers subsurface resistivity proficiently by representing the topography in the computational mesh.

Description: Separating the contribution of different hematite coercivity grains to the magnetic fabric is a standing problem in rock magnetism because of the common occurrence of thermochemical alterations when measuring the anisotropy of thermal remanence. A technique that eliminates this bias is presented, which is useful when there is a need to separate the fabric of detrital from pigmentary hematite, for example. The method is based on stepwise thermal demagnetization of saturation isothermal remanent magnetizations (IRMs) applied orthogonally on three sister specimens, allowing calculation of the anisotropy tensor from the three components of each demagnetized IRM vector, avoiding the necessity of having to apply IRMs to thermochemically altered specimens. Vector subtraction allows determining the anisotropy tensor for specific unblocking-temperature ranges. The anisotropies of the pigmentary, specular and total hematite of the Mauch Chunk Formation red beds of Pennsylvania have been measured from an oriented block sample and results are compared to previous anisotropy measurements performed using the high-field anisotropy of isothermal remanence technique (hf-AIR), which measures total undifferentiated hematite. Experiments were conducted using non-saturating 1 T and fully saturating 5.5 T fields: both experimental sets seem capable of measuring the orientation of the specularite anisotropy principal axes, but 5.5 T are needed to capture the orientation of the higher coercivity pigmentary grains. The magnitudes of the principal axes, instead, are only faithfully measured using 5.5 T fields and yield somewhat higher anisotropies than those measured by hf-AIR. The fundamental requirement for this technique is homogeneous material among the three sister specimens, which is a significant limitation; homogeneity tests allow assessment of applicability of the method and reliability of the results.

Description: We explore thermal convection of a fluid with a temperature-dependent viscosity in a basally heated 3-D spherical shell using linear stability analyses and numerical experiments, while considering the application of our results to terrestrial planets. The inner to outer radius ratio of the shell f assumed in the linear stability analyses is in the range of 0.11–0.88. The critical Rayleigh number R c for the onset of thermal convection decreases by two orders of magnitude as f increases from 0.11 to 0.88, when the viscosity depends sensitively on the temperature, as is the case for real mantle materials. Numerical simulations carried out in the range of f  = 0.11–0.55 show that a thermal boundary layer (TBL) develops both along the surface and bottom boundaries to induce cold and hot plumes, respectively, when f is 0.33 or larger. However, for smaller f values, a TBL develops only on the bottom boundary. Convection occurs in the stagnant-lid regime where the root mean square velocity on the surface boundary is less than 1 per cent of its maximum at depth, when the ratio of the viscosity at the surface boundary to that at the bottom boundary exceeds a threshold that depends on f . The threshold decreases from 10 6.5 at f  = 0.11 to 10 4 at f  = 0.55. If the viscosity at the base of the convecting mantle is 10 20 –10 21  Pa s, the Rayleigh number exceeds R c for Mars, Venus and the Earth, but does not for the Moon and Mercury; convection is unlikely to occur in the latter planets unless the mantle viscosity is much lower than 10 20  Pa s and/or the mantle contains a strong internal heat source.

Description: Subducting oceanic lithosphere is an example of a thin sheet-like object whose characteristic lateral dimension greatly exceeds its thickness. Here we exploit this property to derive a new hybrid boundary-integral/thin sheet (BITS) representation of subduction that combines in a single equation all the forces acting on the sheet: gravity, internal resistance to bending and stretching, and the tractions exerted by the ambient mantle. For simplicity, we limit ourselves to 2-D. We solve the BITS equations using a discrete Lagrangian approach in which the sheet is represented by a set of vertices connected by edges. Instantaneous solutions for the sinking speed of a slab attached to a trailing flat sheet obey a scaling law of the form V / V Stokes  = fct(St), where V Stokes is a characteristic Stokes sinking speed and St is the sheet's flexural stiffness. Time-dependent solutions for the evolution of the sheet's shape and thickness show that these are controlled by the viscosity ratio between the sheet and its surroundings. An important advantage of the BITS approach is the possibility of generalizing the sheet's rheology, either to a viscosity that varies along the sheet or to a non-Newtonian shear-thinning rheology.

Description: The aftershock distribution of the 1933 Sanriku-oki outer trench earthquake is estimated by using modern relocation methods and a newly developed velocity structure to examine the spatial extent of the source-fault and the possibility of a triggered interplate seismicity. In this study, we first examined the regional data quality of the 1933 earthquake based on smoked-paper records and then relocated the earthquakes by using the 3-D velocity structure and double-difference method. The improvements of hypocentre locations using these methods were confirmed by the examination of recent earthquakes that are accurately located based on ocean bottom seismometer data. The results show that the 1933 aftershocks occurred under both the outer- and inner-trench-slope regions. In the outer-trench-slope region, aftershocks are distributed in a ~280-km-long area and their depths are shallower than 50 km. Although we could not constrain the fault geometry from the hypocentre distribution, the depth distribution suggests the whole lithosphere is probably not under deviatoric tension at the time of the 1933 earthquake. The occurrence of aftershocks under the inner trench slope was also confirmed by an investigation of waveform frequency difference between outer and inner trench earthquakes as recorded at Mizusawa. The earthquakes under the inner trench slope were shallow (depth less double equals30 km) and the waveforms show a low-frequency character similar to the waveforms of recent, precisely located earthquakes in the same area. They are also located where recent activity of interplate thrust earthquakes is high. These suggest that the 1933 outer-trench-slope main shock triggered interplate earthquakes, which is an unusual case in the order of occurrence in contrast with the more common pairing of a large initial interplate shock with subsequent outer-slope earthquakes. The off-trench earthquakes are distributed about 80 km width in the trench perpendicular direction. This wide width cannot be explained from a single high-angle fault confined at a shallow depth (depth less double equals50 km). The upward motion of the 1933 tsunami waveform records observed at Sanriku coast also cannot be explained from a single high-angle west-dipping normal fault. If we consider additional fault, involvement of high-angle, east-dipping normal faults can better explain the tsunami first motion and triggering of the aftershock in a wide area under the outer trench slope. Therefore multiple off-trench normal faults may have activated during the 1933 earthquake. We also relocated recent (2001–2012) seismicity by the same method. The results show that the present seismicity in the outer-trench-slope region can be divided into several groups along the trench. Comparison of the 1933 rupture dimensions based on our aftershock relocations with the morphologies of fault scarps in the outer trench slope suggest that the rupture was limited to the region where fault scarps are largely trench parallel and cross cut the seafloor spreading fabric. These findings imply that bending geometry and structural segmentation of the incoming plate largely controls the spatial extent of the 1933 seismogenic faulting. In this shallow rupture model for this largest outer trench earthquake, triggered seismicity in the forearc and structural control of faulting represent an important deformation styles for off-trench and shallow megathrust zones.

Description: Archaeomagnetic field models cover longer timescales than historical models and may therefore resolve the motion of geomagnetic features on the core–mantle boundary (CMB) in a more meaningful statistical sense. Here we perform a detailed appraisal of archaeomagnetic field models to infer some aspects of the physics of the outer core. We characterize and compare the identification and tracking of reversed flux patches (RFPs) in order to assess the RFPs robustness. We find similar behaviour within a family of models but differences among different families, suggesting that modelling strategy is more influential than data set. Similarities involve recurrent positions of RFPs, but no preferred direction of motion is found. The tracking of normal flux patches shows similar qualitative behaviour confirming that RFPs identification and tracking is not strongly biased by their relative weakness. We also compare the tracking of RFPs with that of the historical field model gufm1 and with seismic anomalies of the lowermost mantle to explore the possibility that RFPs have preferred locations prescribed by lower mantle lateral heterogeneity. The archaeomagnetic field model that most resembles the historical field is interpreted in terms of core dynamics and core–mantle thermal interactions. This model exhibits correlation between RFPs and low seismic shear velocity in co-latitude and a shift in longitude. These results shed light on core processes, in particular we infer toroidal field lines with azimuthal orientation below the CMB and large fluid upwelling structures with a width of about 80° (Africa) and 110° (Pacific) at the top of the core. Finally, similar preferred locations of RFPs in the past 9 and 3 kyr of the same archaeomagnetic field model suggest that a 3 kyr period is sufficiently long to reliably detect mantle control on core dynamics. This allows estimating an upper bound of 220–310 km for the magnetic boundary layer thickness below the CMB.

Description: Geodetic, geologic and palaeomagnetic data reveal that Oregon (western USA) rotates clockwise at 0.3 to 1.0° Ma –1 (relative to North America) about an axis near the Idaho–Oregon–Washington border, while northeast Washington is relatively fixed. This rotation has been going on for at least 15 Ma. The Yakima fold and thrust belt (YFTB) forms the boundary between northern Oregon and central Washington where convergence of the clockwise-rotating Oregon block is apparently accommodated. North–south shortening across the YFTB has been thought to occur in a fan-like manner, increasing in rate to the west. We obtained high-accuracy, high-density geodetic GPS measurements in 2012–2014 that are used with earlier GPS measurements from the 1990s to characterize YFTB kinematics. The new results show that the deformation associated with the YFTB starts at the Blue Mountains Anticline in northern Oregon and extends north beyond the Frenchman Hills in Washington, past the epicentre of the 1872 M w 7.0 Entiat earthquake to 49°N. The north–south strain rate across the region is 2 to 3 x 10 –9 yr –1 between the volcanic arc and the eastern edge of the YFTB (241.0°E); east of there it drops to about 10 –9 yr –1 . At the eastern boundary of the YFTB, faults and earthquake activity are truncated by a north-trending, narrow zone of deformation that runs along the Pasco Basin and Moses Lake regions near 240.9°E. This zone, abutting the Department of Energy Hanford Nuclear Reservation, accommodates about 0.5 mm yr –1 of east to northeast shortening. A similar zone of N-trending transpression is seen along 239.9°E where there is a change in the strike of the Yakima folds. The modern deformation of the YFTB is about 600 km wide from south to north and internally may be controlled by pre-existing crustal structure.

Description: The Central Anatolian orogenic plateau is represented by young volcanism, rapid plateau uplift and distinctive (past and active) tectonic deformation. In this study, we consider observational data in terms of regional present-day geodynamics in the region. The residual topography of Central Anatolia was derived to define the regional isostatic conditions according to Airy isostasy and infer the potential role of ‘dynamic topography’. 2-D thermomechanical forward models for coupled mantle-lithosphere flow/deformation were conducted along an N–S directional profile through the region (e.g. northern/Pontides, interior and southern/Taurides). These models were based on seismic tomography data that provide estimates about the present-day mantle thermal structure beneath the Anatolian plate. We compare the modelling results with calculated residual topography and independent data sets of geological deformation, gravity and high surface heat flow/widespread geothermal activity. Model results suggest that there is ~1 km of mantle flow induced dynamic topography associated with the sublithospheric flow driven by the seismically inferred mantle structure. The uprising mantle may have also driven the asthenospheric source of volcanism in the north (e.g. Galatia volcanic province) and the Cappadocia volcanic province in the south while elevating the surface in the last 10 Myr. Our dynamic topography calculations emphasize the role of vertical forcing under other orogenic plateaux underlain by relatively thin crust and low-density asthenospheric mantle.

Description: Post-depositional reductive diagenesis usually results in partial or entire cleansing of the pristine palaeomagnetic signal, therefore, its intensity is important to be assessed for sediments that are in the purpose of retrieving palaeomagnetic information. Grain size, rock magnetic and geochemical studies on the entire core, along with scanning electron microscope observations and X-ray diffraction analyses for representative samples were carried out on a Holocene sediment core retrieved from the deep water part of Huguangyan maar lake (HGY), southeast China. The pristine magnetic mineral assemblage of the studied core is domianted by superparamagnetic (SP) and stable single domain titanomagnetite, and high coercivity minerals are not detectable. Based on down-core variations of the average grain size ( M Z ), total organic carbon (TOC), detrital elements (Al, Ti, Fe and Mn) and the concentration and mineralogy of magnetic minerals, the studied core could be divided into three subsections. The uppermost subsection is the least affected by diagenesis, with detrital titanomagnetite as the dominant magnetic mineral. This is owing to low TOC contents, but high detrital input generated by weak Asian summer monsoon intensity during the late Holocene. The intermediate subsection shows down-core progressively enhanced dissolution of detrital titanomagnetite, and concomitant formation of authigenic pyrite and siderite, which indicates down-core progressively enhanced diagenesis generated by down-core progressive increasing TOC content, but decreasing detrital input as the result of down-core progressively strengthened Asian summer monsoon intensity. The pristine magnetic mineral assemblage has been profoundly modified in the lowermost subsection. At certain positions of the lowermost subsection, detrital titanomagnetite has been even completely dissolved via diagenesis, giving place to authigenic pyrite and siderite. High TOC content, but low detrital input generated from strong Asian summer monsoon intensity during the early Holocene are accountable for intensive diagenesis in the lowermost subsection. Complete erasing of detrital magnetic input signal at certain positions of the lowermost subsection, and considerable formation of authigenic siderite indicate that palaeomagnetic records of the studied core have been significantly compromised. The studied core has relatively higher TOC content, lower detrital matter content, calmer sedimentary environments, and less DO available at its water–sediment interface than the cores retrieved at relatively shallower water depths, which all contribute to its relatively stronger diagenesis. Progressive thickening of the upper two subsections with increasing water depth is owing to progressive increase in sedimentation rate with increasing water depth, which is the key factor in determining the thickness of each diagenetic subsection of cores from HGY. It would be better that lake sediments for palaeomagnetic investigations collected at a water depth shallower than the depth of its thermocline.

Description: In many geological systems, inversion of density stratification sets in Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) instabilities, leading to an ascent of relatively low-density materials through the high-density overburden in the form of diapirs. These diapirs often originate from dipping low-density layers. This study aims to show how the initial tilt of such source layers can control the ascent behaviour of diapirs initiated by RT instabilities. Using two-layer viscous models we produced RT instabilities in physical experiments, and investigated the effects of source-layer tilts ( β ). Our experiments suggest that these diapirs ascend with contrasting lateral spreading rates in the up and down slope directions, resulting in their axi-asymmetric geometry. However, their heads retain a circular outline on the horizontal top surface, where the upwelling axis is located away from their geometric centre in the upslope direction. In this paper, we present a series of experimental models to demonstrate the spectrum of axi-symmetric to -asymmetric geometrical transitions with increasing β . Our experiments also reveal that when β is large (〉4°) the diapirs become unstable, resulting in a continuous migration of their stems in the upslope direction. Using the volume of fluid method we ran computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations to study the underlying hydrodynamics of axi-asymmetric diapiric growth. The CFD simulations show that β 〉 0° conditions develop stronger flow vortices on the downslope side of an ascending diapir, leading to a pressure difference between the up- and downslope flanks. Such a differential pressure causes the diapir head to spread at a faster rate in the tilt direction. An estimate of the asymmetric spreading rates is given as a function of β . Our present study provides a fundamental understanding of the hydrodynamic flow structure responsible for the asymmetric growth of RT instabilities on tilted source layers, as applicable to a wide range of large-scale geological settings, such as sedimentary basins and subduction zones.

Description: The geomechanical analysis of a highly compartmentalized reservoir is performed to simulate the seafloor subsidence due to gas production. The available observations over the hydrocarbon reservoir consist of bathymetric surveys carried out before and at the end of a 10-yr production life. The main goal is the calibration of the reservoir compressibility c M , that is, the main geomechanical parameter controlling the surface response. Two conceptual models are considered: in one (i) c M varies only with the depth and the vertical effective stress (heterogeneity due to lithostratigraphic variability); in another (ii) c M varies also in the horizontal plane, that is, it is spatially distributed within the reservoir stratigraphic units. The latter hypothesis accounts for a possible partitioning of the reservoir due to the presence of sealing faults and thrusts that suggests the idea of a block heterogeneous system with the number of reservoir blocks equal to the number of uncertain parameters. The method applied here relies on an ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) algorithm (i.e. the ensemble smoother, ES), which incorporates the information from the bathymetric measurements into the geomechanical model response to infer and reduce the uncertainty of the parameter c M . The outcome from conceptual model (i) indicates that DA is effective in reducing the c M uncertainty. However, the maximum settlement still remains underestimated, while the areal extent of the subsidence bowl is overestimated. We demonstrate that the selection of the heterogeneous conceptual model (ii) allows to reproduce much better the observations thus removing a clear bias of the model structure. DA allows significantly reducing the c M uncertainty in the five blocks (out of the seven) characterized by large volume and large pressure decline. Conversely, the assimilation of land displacements only partially constrains the prior c M uncertainty in the reservoir blocks marginally contributing to the cumulative seafloor subsidence, that is, blocks with low pressure.

Description: This work aims to explore the ongoing tectonic activity of structures in the outermost sector of the Northern Apennines, which represents the active leading edge of the thrust belt and is dominated by compressive deformation. We have applied the Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) technique to obtain new insights into the present-day deformation pattern of the frontal area of the Northern Apennine. PSI has proved to be effective in detecting surface deformation of wide regions involved in low tectonic movements. We used 34 Envisat images in descending geometry over the period of time between 2004 and 2010, performing about 300 interferometric pairs. The analysis of the velocity maps and of the PSI time-series has allowed to observe ground deformation over the sector of the Po Plain between Piacenza and Reggio Emilia. The time-series of permanent GPS stations located in the study area, validated the results of the PSI technique, showing a good correlation with the PS time-series. The PS analysis reveals the occurrence of a well-known subsidence area on the rear of the Ferrara arc, mostly connected to the exploitation of water resources. In some instances, the PS velocity pattern reveals ground uplift (with mean velocities ranging from 1 to 2.8 mm yr –1 ) above active thrust-related anticlines of the Emilia and Ferrara folds, and part of the Pede-Apennine margin. We hypothesize a correlation between the observed uplift deformation pattern and the growth of the thrust-related anticlines. As the uplift pattern corresponds to known geological features, it can be used to constrain the seismo-tectonic setting, and a working hypothesis may involve that the active Emilia and Ferrara thrust folds would be characterized by interseismic periods possibly dominated by aseismic creep.

Description: In Europe, common input data types for seismic hazard evaluation include earthquake catalogues, seismic zonation models and ground motion models, all with well-constrained epistemic uncertainties. In contrast, neotectonic deformation models and their related uncertainties are rarely considered in earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard studies. In this study, for the first time in Europe, we developed a seismic hazard model based exclusively on active fault and geodynamic deformation models. We applied it to the External Dinarides, a slow-deforming fold-and-thrust belt in the Central Mediterranean. The two deformation models furnish consistent long-term earthquake rates above the M w 4.7 threshold on a latitude/longitude grid with 0.2° spacing. Results suggest that the use of deformation models is a valid alternative to empirical-statistical approaches in earthquake forecasting in slow-deforming regions of Europe. Furthermore, we show that the variability of different deformation models has a comparable effect on the peak ground motion acceleration uncertainty as do the ground motion prediction equations.

Description: The rocks in the crust and the upper mantle of the Earth are believed to exhibit electrical anisotropy to some extent. It is beneficial to further understand and recognize the propagation of the electromagnetic waves in the Earth by investigating the magnetotelluric (which is one of the main geophysical techniques to probe the deep structures in the Earth) responses of the media with anisotropic conductivity structures. In this study, we examine the magnetotelluric fields over an idealized 2-D model consisting of two segments with axially anisotropic conductivity structures overlying a perfect conductor basement by a quasi-static analytic approach. The resulting analytic solution could not only contribute to the electromagnetic induction theory in the anisotropic Earth but also serve as at least an initial standard solution which could be used to validate the reliability and accuracy of the numerical algorithms developed for modelling the magnetotelluric responses of the 2-D media with much more general anisotropic conductivity.

Description: Several works have reported that haematite has non-linear initial susceptibility at room temperature, like pyrrhotite or titanomagnetite, but there is no explanation for the observed behaviours yet. This study sets out to determine which physical property (grain size, foreign cations content and domain walls displacements) controls the initial susceptibility. The performed measurements include microprobe analysis to determine magnetic phases different to haematite; initial susceptibility (300 K); hysteresis loops, SIRM and backfield curves at 77 and 300 K to calculate magnetic parameters and minor loops at 77 K, to analyse initial susceptibility and magnetization behaviours below Morin transition. The magnetic moment study at low temperature is completed with measurements of zero field cooled–field cooled and AC susceptibility in a range from 5 to 300 K. The minor loops show that the non-linearity of initial susceptibility is closely related to Barkhausen jumps. Because of initial magnetic susceptibility is controlled by domain structure it is difficult to establish a mathematical model to separate magnetic subfabrics in haematite-bearing rocks.

Description: An important real world application of doublet flow occurs in well design of both geothermal and hydrocarbon reservoirs. A guiding principle for fluid management of injection and extraction wells is that mass balance is commonly assumed between the injected and produced fluid. Because the doublets are considered closed loops, the injection fluid is assumed to eventually reach the producer well and all the produced fluid ideally comes from stream tubes connected to the injector of the well pair making up the doublet. We show that when an aquifer background flow occurs, doublets will rarely retain closed loops of fluid recirculation. When the far-field flow rate increases relative to the doublet's strength, the area occupied by the doublet will diminish and eventually vanishes. Alternatively, rather than using a single injector (source) and single producer (sink), a linear array of multiple injectors separated by some distance from a parallel array of producers can be used in geothermal energy projects as well as in waterflooding of hydrocarbon reservoirs. Fluid flow in such an arrangement of parallel source-sink arrays is shown to be macroscopically equivalent to that of a line doublet. Again, any far-field flow that is strong enough will breach through the line doublet, which then splits into two vortices. Apart from fundamental insight into elementary flow dynamics, our new results provide practical clues that may contribute to improve the planning and design of doublets and direct line drives commonly used for flow management of groundwater, geothermal and hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Description: A series of important geological events occurred in the Tibetan Plateau area during the Jurassic, such as the collision of the Lhasa and Qiangtang Terranes, the closure of the Meso-Tethyan Ocean, the opening of the Neo-Tethyan Ocean and the cessation of the mega-monsoon. The ~3000 m thick Jurassic sedimentary sequence in the Qiangtang Basin on the central Tibetan Plateau, which is called the Yanshiping (YSP) Group, recorded these geological events. However, the chronology of the sequence is surprisingly poorly constrained. Here, we perform a detailed palaeomagnetic analysis on the ~1060 m thick middle and upper portions of the YSP Group (the Xiali and Suowa Formations) in the YSP section of the eastern Qiangtang Basin. Three bivalve zones at stratigraphic intervals of ~40–140, 640–800 and 940–1040 m are identified, which yield a Bathonian–Callovian age for the Lower Xiali Fm., a Callovian–Oxfordian age for the Lower Suowa Fm. and an Oxfordian–Kimmeridgian age for the Upper Suowa Fm. A total of 544 oriented palaeomagnetic samples were collected from the section. By combining thermal and alternating field demagnetizations, clear characteristic remanent magnetization (ChRM) directions are isolated for most of the samples. The robust ChRM directions pass fold and reversals tests, which support the primary nature of the ChRMs and yield a palaeopole at 76.8°N/297.2°E (dp = 2.2°, dm = 3.7°). A total of 27 normal and 26 reversed polarity zones were successfully recorded in the section. Combined with fossil age constraints, results suggest that the section is plausibly composed of a Callovian-Early Kimmeridgian age sedimentary sequence.

Description: We estimate fluid sources around a subducted seamount along the northern Hikurangi subduction margin of New Zealand, using thermomechanical numerical modelling informed by wedge structure and porosities from multichannel seismic data. Calculated fluid sources are input into an independent fluid-flow model to explore the key controls on overpressure generation to depths of 12 km. In the thermomechanical models, sediment transport through and beneath the wedge is calculated assuming a pressure-sensitive frictional rheology. The change in porosity, pressure and temperature with calculated rock advection is used to compute fluid release from compaction and dehydration. Our calculations yield more precise information about source locations in time and space than previous averaged estimates for the Hikurangi margin. The volume of fluid release in the wedge is smaller than previously estimated from margin-averaged calculations (~14 m 3  yr –1  m –1 ), and is exceeded by fluid release from underlying (subducting) sediment (~16 m 3  yr –1  m –1 ). Clay dehydration contributes only a small quantity of fluid by volume (~2 m 3  yr –1  m –1 from subducted sediment), but the integrated effect is still significant landward of the seamount. Fluid source terms are used to estimate fluid pressures around a subducting seamount in the fluid-flow models, using subducted sediment permeability derived from porosity, and testing two end-members for décollement permeability. Models in which the décollement acts as a fluid conduit predict only moderate fluid overpressure in the wedge and subducting sediment. However, if the subduction interface becomes impermeable with depth, significant fluid overpressure develops in subducting sediment landward of the seamount. The location of predicted fluid overpressure and associated dehydration reactions is consistent with the idea that short duration, shallow, slow slip events (SSEs) landward of the seamount are caused by anomalous fluid pressures; alternatively, it may result from frictional effects of changing clay content along the subduction interface.

Description: A method is outlined by means of which it is possible to estimate high-resolution vertical displacements due to an earthquake even in the case where high-resolution topography is lacking before the earthquake. This result can be achieved by combining a highly accurate, post-event digital elevation model (DEM), for example lidar, with archived satellite imagery. The method is illustrated by calculating vertical displacements for the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. For this earthquake, there are both pre- and post-event lidar DEMs from which vertical displacements may also be estimated after correcting for the lateral advection of topography due to horizontal displacements. A comparison between the two means of deriving vertical displacements shows generally good agreement, with the displacements obtained using satellite imagery performing better in high relief areas. As a result of this property, we are able to trace the vertical offsets due to the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake as the rupture jumped from the Pescadores fault to the Borrego fault in propagating through the high relief of the Sierra Cucapah.

Description: This study investigates pressure effects on the magnetic properties of non-interacting single-domain (SD) magnetite. Using a high-pressure cell specially designed for a Magnetic Property Measurement System, magnetic hysteresis measurements were conducted under high pressures of up to 1 GPa on natural plagioclase crystals containing much acicular SD magnetite. Coercivity and saturation magnetization were nearly constant with pressure, while saturation remanent magnetization and coercivity of remanence decreased with pressure at moderate rates of –8 per cent GPa –1 and –18 per cent GPa –1 , respectively. These results suggest that temperature effects govern the magnetic behaviour of acicular SD magnetite grains in the middle and lower crusts.

Description: Characterization of geomagnetic field behaviour on timescales of centuries to millennia is necessary to understand the mechanisms that sustain the geodynamo and drive its evolution. As Holocene paleomagnetic and archeomagnetic data have become more abundant, strategies for regularized inversion of modern field data have been adapted to produce numerous time-varying global field models. We evaluate the effectiveness of several approaches to inversion and data handling, by assessing both global and regional properties of the resulting models. Global Holocene field models cannot resolve Southern hemisphere regional field variations without the use of sediments. A standard data set is used to construct multiple models using two different strategies for relative paleointensity calibration and declination orientation and a selection of starting models in the inversion procedure. When data uncertainties are considered, the results are similar overall regardless of whether we use iterative calibration and reorientation, or co-estimation of the calibration and orientation parameters as part of the inversion procedure. In each case the quality of the starting model used for initial relative paleointensity calibration and declination orientation is crucial and must be based on the best absolute information available. Without adequate initial calibration the morphology of dipole moment variations can be recovered but its absolute value will be correlated with the initial intensity calibrations, an effect that might be mitigated by ensuring an appropriate fit to enough high quality absolute intensity data with low uncertainties. The declination reorientation mainly impacts regional field structure and in the presence of non-zonal fields will result in a non-zero local average. The importance of declination orientation is highlighted by inconsistencies in the West Pacific and Australian sediment records in CALS10k.1b model. Great care must also be taken to assess uncertainties associated with both paleomagnetic and age data and to evaluate the effects of poor data distribution. New consistently allocated uncertainty estimates for sediment paleomagnetic records highlight the importance of adequate uncertainties in the inversion process, as they determine the relative weighting among the data and overall normalized misfit levels which in turn influence the complexity of the inferred field models. Residual distributions suggest that the most appropriate misfit measure is the L 1 norm (minimum absolute deviation) rather than L 2 (least squares), but this seems to have relatively minor impact on the overall results. For future Holocene field modelling we see a need for comprehensive methods to assess uncertainty in individual archeomagnetic data so that these data or models derived from them can be used for reliable initial relative paleointensity calibration and declination orientation in sediments. More work will be needed to assess whether co-estimation or an iterative approach to inversion is more efficient overall. This would be facilitated by realistic and globally consistent data and age uncertainties from the paleomagnetic community.

Description: Galvanic distortion of magnetotelluric (MT) data due to small-scale surficial bodies or due to topography is one of the major factors that prevents accurate imaging of the subsurface. We present a 3-D algorithm for joint inversion of MT impedance tensor data and a frequency-independent full distortion matrix that circumvents this problem. We perform several tests of our algorithm on synthetic data affected by different amounts of distortion. These tests show that joint inversion leads to a better conductivity model compared to the inversion of the MT impedance tensor without any correction for distortion effects. For highly distorted data, inversion without any distortion correction results in strong artefacts and we cannot fit the data to the specified noise level. When the distortion is reduced, we can fit the data to an RMS of one, but still observe artefacts in the shallow part of the model. In contrast, in both cases our joint inversion can fit the data within the assumed noise level and the resulting models are comparable to the inversion of undistorted data. In addition, we show that the elements of the full distortion matrix can be well resolved by our algorithm. Finally, when inverting undistorted data, including the distortion matrix in the inversion only results in a minor loss of resolution. We therefore consider our new approach a promising tool for the general analysis of field MT data.

Description: The magnetic field that originates in the earth's core is transformed across the electrically conducting mantle before being observed, at the earth's surface or above. Assuming that the conductivity depends only on radius, it has been customary to treat the mantle as a linear time-invariant filter for the core magnetic field, with properties (as a function of the frequency ) specified by the transfer function (). An high-frequency approximation to (), which is derived from a three terms WKBJ expansion with –1/2 as small parameter, is found here to reproduce adequately, for low harmonic degrees and/or thin conducting layers, the exact solution, which is evaluated numerically. It is contrasted with the low-frequency estimation of , which consists in a perturbation procedure and in writing () as a series in powers of ( -〉 0). The low-frequency theory is applied to the magnetic variations produced by the geostrophic core flows with about 6 yr period as the phase of these flows is independently determined from their effect on the length of the day. Apart from that, the low-frequency approximation overestimates the screening by the mantle of high-frequency signals, especially the low harmonic degree ones. In practice, the attenuating factor defined from the O ( 2 ) term in the expansion of as -〉 0 cannot be retrieved from analyses of geomagnetic time-series. Application of the mantle filter theory hinges on our knowledge about the time spectrum of the magnetic field at the core surface. The low-frequency theory had been previously applied to observatory series on the assumption that geomagnetic jerks occurring in the core are rare and isolated events. Rather than following up these earlier studies, I note that the spectral density function for the second time derivative of the main magnetic field coefficients is approximately independent of in a frequency range for which the mantle has undoubtedly negligible influence. In the absence of any other information, this scaling law is extrapolated to higher frequencies.

Description: The magnetic field of the Earth's lithosphere arises from rock magnetization contrasts that were shaped over geological times. The field can be described mathematically in spherical harmonics or with distributions of magnetization. We exploit this dual representation and assume that the lithospheric field is induced by spatially varying susceptibility values within a shell of constant thickness. By introducing a statistical assumption about the power spectrum of the susceptibility, we then derive a statistical expression for the spatial power spectrum of the crustal magnetic field for the spatial scales ranging from 60 to 2500 km. This expression depends on the mean induced magnetization, the thickness of the shell, and a power law exponent for the power spectrum of the susceptibility. We test the relevance of this form with a misfit analysis to the observational NGDC-720 lithospheric magnetic field model power spectrum. This allows us to estimate a mean global apparent induced magnetization value between 0.3 and 0.6 A m –1 , a mean magnetic crustal thickness value between 23 and 30 km, and a root mean square for the field value between 190 and 205 nT at 95 per cent. These estimates are in good agreement with independent models of the crustal magnetization and of the seismic crustal thickness. We carry out the same analysis in the continental and oceanic domains separately. We complement the misfit analyses with a Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit test and we conclude that the observed power spectrum can be each time a sample of the statistical one.

Description: We present observations and models of the Sulaiman Range of western Pakistan that shed new light on the evolution and deformation of fold-thrust belts. Earthquake source inversions show that the seismic deformation in the range is concentrated in the thick pile of sediments overlying the underthrusting lithosphere of the Indian subcontinent. The slip vectors of the earthquakes vary in strike around the margin of the range, in tandem with the shape of the topography, suggesting that gravitational driving forces arising from the topography play an important role in governing the deformation of the region. Numerical models suggest that the active deformation, and the extreme plan-view curvature of the range, are governed by the presence of weak sediments in a pre-existing basin on the underthrusting Indian Plate. These sediments affect the stress-state in the over-riding mountain range and allow for the rapid propagation of the nose of the range and the development of extreme curvature and laterally varying surface gradients.

Description: The mechanical damage characteristics of sandstone subjected to cyclic loading is very significant to evaluate the stability and safety of deep excavation damage zones. However to date, there are very few triaxial experimental studies of sandstone under cyclic loading. Moreover, few X-ray micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) observations have been adopted to reveal the damage mechanism of sandstone under triaxial cyclic loading. Therefore, in this research, a series of triaxial cyclic loading tests and X-ray micro-CT observations were conducted to analyse the mechanical damage characteristics of sandstone with respect to different confining pressures. The results indicated that at lower confining pressures, the triaxial strength of sandstone specimens under cyclic loading is higher than that under monotonic loading; whereas at confining pressures above 20 MPa, the triaxial strength of sandstone under cyclic loading is approximately equal to that under monotonic loading. With the increase of cycle number, the crack damage threshold of sandstone first increases, and then significantly decreases and finally remains constant. Based on the damage evolution of irreversible deformation, it appears that the axial damage value of sandstone is all higher than the radial damage value before the peak strength; whereas the radial damage value is higher than the axial damage value after the peak strength. The evolution of Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of sandstone can be characterized as having four stages: (i) Stage I: material strengthening; (ii) Stage II: material degradation; (iii) Stage III: material failure and (iv) Stage IV: structure slippage. X-ray micro-CT observations demonstrated that the CT scanning surface images of sandstone specimens are consistent with actual surface crack photographs. The analysis of the cross-sections of sandstone supports that the system of crack planes under triaxial cyclic loading is much more complicated than that under triaxial monotonic loading. More axial and lateral tensile cracks were observed in the specimens under cyclic loading than under monotonic loading.

Description: We determine the deep structure of the eastern Algerian basin and its southern margin in the Annaba region (easternmost Algeria), to better constrain the plate kinematic reconstruction in this region. This study is based on new geophysical data collected during the SPIRAL cruise in 2009, which included a wide-angle, 240-km-long, onshore–offshore seismic profile, multichannel seismic reflection lines and gravity and magnetic data, complemented by the available geophysical data for the study area. The analysis and modelling of the wide-angle seismic data including refracted and reflected arrival travel times, and integrated with the multichannel seismic reflection lines, reveal the detailed structure of an ocean-to-continent transition. In the deep basin, there is an ~5.5-km-thick oceanic crust that is composed of two layers. The upper layer of the crust is defined by a high velocity gradient and P -wave velocities between 4.8 and 6.0 km s –1 , from the top to the bottom. The lower crust is defined by a lower velocity gradient and P -wave velocity between 6.0 and 7.1 km s –1 . The Poisson ratio in the lower crust deduced from S -wave modelling is 0.28, which indicates that the lower crust is composed mainly of gabbros. Below the continental edge, a typical continental crust with P -wave velocities between 5.2 and 7.0 km s –1 , from the top to the bottom, shows a gradual seaward thinning of ~15 km over an ~35-km distance. This thinning is regularly distributed between the upper and lower crusts, and it characterizes a rifted margin, which has resulted from backarc extension at the rear of the Kabylian block, here represented by the Edough Massif at the shoreline. Above the continental basement, an ~2-km-thick, pre-Messinian sediment layer with a complex internal structure is interpreted as allochthonous nappes of flysch backthrusted on the margin during the collision of Kabylia with the African margin. The crustal structure, moreover, provides evidence for Miocene emplacement of magmatic intrusions in both the deep basin and the continental margin. Based on the crustal structure, we propose that the eastern Algerian basin opened during the southeastward migration of the European forearc before the collision, along a NW–SE elongated spreading centre that ran perpendicular to the subduction trend. Such an atypical geometry is explained by the diverging directions of the subduction rollback during the backarc opening: eastward for the Corsica–Sardinia block, and southward for the Kabylian blocks. This geometry of the forearc can be interpreted as the surface expression of a slab tear at depth, which is responsible for atypical magmatism in the overlying backarc oceanic basin.

Description: Data on the evolution of Earth's magnetic field intensity are important for understanding the geodynamo and planetary evolution. However, the paleomagnetic record in rocks may be adversely affected by many physical processes, which must be taken into account when analysing the palaeointensity database. This is especially important in the light of an ongoing debate regarding core thermal conductivity values, and how these relate to the Precambrian geodynamo. Here, we demonstrate that several data sets in the Precambrian palaeointensity database overestimate the true paleofield strength due to the presence of non-ideal carriers of palaeointensity signals and/or viscous re-magnetizations. When the palaeointensity overestimates are removed, the Precambrian database does not indicate a robust change in geomagnetic field intensity during the Mesoproterozoic. These findings call into question the recent claim that the solid inner core formed in the Mesoproterozoic, hence constraining the thermal conductivity in the core to ‘moderate’ values. Instead, our analyses indicate that the presently available palaeointensity data are insufficient in number and quality to constrain the timing of solid inner core formation, or the outstanding problem of core thermal conductivity. Very young or very old inner core ages (and attendant high or low core thermal conductivity values) are consistent with the presently known history of Earth's field strength. More promising available data sets that reflect long-term core structure are geomagnetic reversal rate and field morphology. The latter suggests changes that may reflect differences in Archean to Proterozoic core stratification, whereas the former suggest an interval of geodynamo hyperactivity at ca. 550 Ma.

Description: In November 2010, intense seismic activity including 29 events with a magnitude above 5.0, started in the western part of the Gulf of Aden, where the structure of the oceanic spreading ridge is characterized by a series of N115°-trending slow-spreading segments set within an EW-trending rift. Using signals recorded by permanent and temporary networks in Djibouti and Yemen, we located 1122 earthquakes, with a magnitude ranging from 2.1 to 5.6 from 2010 November 1 to 2011 March 31. By looking in detail at the space–time distribution of the overall seismicity, and both the frequency and the moment tensor of large earthquakes, we re-examine the chronology of this episode. In addition, we also interpret the origin of the activity using high-resolution bathymetric data, as well as from observations of seafloor cable damage caused by high temperatures and lava flows. The analysis allows us to identify distinct active areas. First, we interpret that this episode is mainly related to a diking event along a specific ridge segment, located at E044°. In light of previous diking episodes in nearby subaerial rift segments, for which field constraints and both seismic and geodetic data exist, we interpret the space–time evolution of the seismicity of the first few days. Migration of earthquakes suggests initial magma ascent below the segment centre. This is followed by a southeastward dike propagation below the rift immediately followed by a northwestward dike propagation below the rift ending below the northern ridge wall. The cumulative seismic moment associated with this sequence reaches 9.1 x 10 17 Nm, and taking into account a very low seismic versus geodetic moment, we estimate a horizontal opening of ~0.58–2.9 m. The seismic activity that followed occurred through several bursts of earthquakes aligned along the segment axis, which are interpreted as short dike intrusions implying fast replenishment of the crustal magma reservoir feeding the dikes. Over the whole period, the opening is estimated to be ~1.76–8.8 m across the segment. A striking feature of this episode is that the seismicity remained confined within one individual segment, whereas the adjacent en-echelon segments were totally quiescent, suggesting that the magma supply system of one segment is disconnected from those of the neighbouring segments. Second, we identify activity induced by the first intrusion with epicentres aligned along an N035°E-trending, ~30 km long at the northwestern end of the active opening segment. This group encompasses more than seven earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5.0, and with strike-slip focal mechanisms consistent with the faults identified in the bathymetry and the structural pattern of the area. We propose that a transform fault is currently in formation which indicates an early stage of the ridge segmentation, at the locus of the trend change of the spreading ridge, which also corresponds to the boundary between a clear oceanic lithosphere and the zone of transform between continental and oceanic crust.

Description: We challenge the perspective that seismicity could contribute to polar motion by arguing quantitatively that, in first approximation and on the average, interseismic deformations can compensate for it. This point is important because what we must simulate and observe in Earth Orientation Parameter time-series over intermediate timescales of decades or centuries is the residual polar motion resulting from the two opposing processes of coseismic and interseismic deformations. In this framework, we first simulate the polar motion caused by only coseismic deformations during the longest period available of instrumental seismicity, from 1900 to present, using both the CMT and ISC-GEM catalogues. The instrumental seismicity covering a little longer than one century does not represent yet the average seismicity that we should expect on the long term. Indeed, although the simulation shows a tendency to move the Earth rotation pole towards 133°E at the average rate of 16.5 mm yr –1 , this trend is still sensitive to individual megathrust earthquakes, particularly to the 1960 Chile and 1964 Alaska earthquakes. In order to further investigate this issue, we develop a global seismicity model (GSM) that is independent from any earthquake catalogue and that describes the average seismicity along plate boundaries on the long term by combining information about present-day plate kinematics with the Anderson theory of faulting, the seismic moment conservation principle and a few other assumptions. Within this framework, we obtain a secular polar motion of 8 mm yr –1 towards 112.5°E that is comparable with that estimated from 1900 to present using the earthquake catalogues, although smaller by a factor of 2 in amplitude and different by 20° in direction. Afterwards, in order to reconcile the idea of a secular polar motion caused by earthquakes with our simplest understanding of the seismic cycle, we adapt the GSM in order to account for interseismic deformations and we use it to quantify, for the first time ever, their contribution to polar motion. Taken together, coseismic and interseismic deformations make the rotation pole wander around the north pole with maximum polar excursions of about 1 m. In particular, the rotation pole moves towards about Newfoundland when the interseismic contribution dominates over the coseismic ones (i.e. during phases of low seismicity or, equivalently, when most of the fault system associated with plate boundaries is locked). When megathrust earthquakes occur, instead, the rotation pole is suddenly shifted in an almost opposite direction, towards about 133°E.

Description: This article applies the concept of a term structure to agricultural land rental prices. Based on theoretical considerations, we develop a hedonic pricing model that allows for different shapes of the term structure curve while controlling for other price-relevant characteristics. We apply this model to land lease contracts in Saxony-Anhalt. We find an upward-sloping term structure during the agricultural price boom in 2007 and 2008, where market participants expected increasing rental prices. For the subsequent years, however, we detect a single-humped term structure. Hence, market participants revised their expectations and assumed a decline of land rental prices in the long term.

Description: Red Clay underlying the loess-palaeosol sequences on the Chinese Loess Plateau is an eolian deposit. There is a controversy over whether magnetic susceptibility ( ) variations in Red Clay sequence can be used as an indicator of summer palaeomonsoon intensity. This study investigates the magnetic mineralogy, magnetic concentration and magnetic grain size distribution of Jiaxian Red Clay with multimagnetic methods. Our results indicate that the magnetic properties of Jiaxian Red Clay are similar to those of the Quaternary loess-palaeosol sequences, and ultrafine ferrimagnetic grains produced during pedogenesis are responsible for an increase in susceptibility, therefore the enhancement mechanism of Red Clay is similar to that of the overlying loess-palaeosol sequences. This paper explores variations in the Red Clay sequence through spatial and temporal analysis. The susceptibility variation of six sites along a NNE to SSW transect correlate to palaeoclimatic cycles, so can be used to trace the summer palaeomonsoon intensity from a spatial perspective. However, a simple loess-derived calibration function cannot be used to quantitative reconstruct the palaeomonsoon intensity variations thought time. An adjusted calibration function for palaeosols from Red Clay sequence needs to be developed, so that can be used to quantitative reconstruct palaeomonsoon intensity. Further study is necessary to develop such a transfer function.

Description: Palaeointensity experiments were carried out to a sample collection from two sections of basalt lava flow sequences of Pliocene age in north central Iceland (Chron C2An) to further refine the knowledge of the behaviour of the palaeomagnetic field. Selection of samples was mainly based on their stability of remanence to thermal demagnetization as well as good reversibility in variations of magnetic susceptibility and saturation magnetization with temperature, which would indicate the presence of magnetite as a product of deuteric oxidation of titanomagnetite. Among 167 lava flows from two sections, 44 flows were selected for the Königsberger–Thellier–Thellier experiment in vacuum. In spite of careful pre-selection of samples, an Arai plot with two linear segments, or a concave-up appearance, was often encountered during the experiments. This non-ideal behaviour was probably caused by an irreversible change in the domain state of the magnetic grains of the pseudo-single-domain (PSD) range. This is assumed because an ideal linear plot was obtained in the second run of the palaeointensity experiment in which a laboratory thermoremanence acquired after the final step of the first run was used as a natural remanence. This experiment was conducted on six selected samples, and no clear difference between the magnetic grains of the experimented and pristine sister samples was found by scanning electron microscope and hysteresis measurements, that is, no occurrence of notable chemical/mineralogical alteration, suggesting that no change in the grain size distribution had occurred. Hence, the two-segment Arai plot was not caused by the reversible multidomain/PSD effect in which the curvature of the Arai plot is dependent on the grain size. Considering that the irreversible change in domain state must have affected data points at not only high temperatures but also low temperatures, f v ≥ 0.5 was adopted as one of the acceptance criteria where f v is a vectorially defined fraction of the linear segment. A measure of curvature k ' was also used to check the linearity of the selected linear segment. It was avoided, however, to reject the result out of hand by the large curvature k of the entire data points because it might still include a linear segment with a large fraction. Combining with the results of Shaw's experiments, 52 palaeointensities were obtained out of 192 specimens, or 11 flow means were obtained out of the 44 lava flows. Most of the palaeointensities were from the upper part of the lava section (Chron C2An.1n) and ranged between 30 and 66 μT. Including two results from the bottom part of the lava section, the mean virtual dipole moment for 2.5–3.5 Ma is 6.3 ± 1.4  x  10 22 Am 2 ( N  = 11), which is ~19 per cent smaller than the present-day dipole moment.

Description: While elasticity is a defining characteristic of the Earth's lithosphere, it is often ignored in numerical models of long-term tectonic processes in favour of a simpler viscoplastic description. Here we assess the consequences of this assumption on a well-studied geodynamic problem: the growth of normal faults at an extensional plate boundary. We conduct 2-D numerical simulations of extension in elastoplastic and viscoplastic layers using a finite difference, particle-in-cell numerical approach. Our models simulate a range of faulted layer thicknesses and extension rates, allowing us to quantify the role of elasticity on three key observables: fault-induced topography, fault rotation, and fault life span. In agreement with earlier studies, simulations carried out in elastoplastic layers produce rate-independent lithospheric flexure accompanied by rapid fault rotation and an inverse relationship between fault life span and faulted layer thickness. By contrast, models carried out with a viscoplastic lithosphere produce results that may qualitatively resemble the elastoplastic case, but depend strongly on the product of extension rate and layer viscosity U x L . When this product is high, fault growth initially generates little deformation of the footwall and hanging wall blocks, resulting in unrealistic, rigid block-offset in topography across the fault. This configuration progressively transitions into a regime where topographic decay associated with flexure is fully accommodated within the numerical domain. In addition, high U x L favours the sequential growth of multiple short-offset faults as opposed to a large-offset detachment. We interpret these results by comparing them to an analytical model for the fault-induced flexure of a thin viscous plate. The key to understanding the viscoplastic model results lies in the rate-dependence of the flexural wavelength of a viscous plate, and the strain rate dependence of the force increase associated with footwall and hanging wall bending. This behaviour produces unrealistic deformation patterns that can hinder the geological relevance of long-term rifting models that assume a viscoplastic rheology.

Description: This article uses the 2007 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey database developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to assess the impact of water scarcity and climate on irrigation decisions for producers of specialty crops, wheat, and forage crops. We estimate an irrigation management model for major crops in the West Coast (California, Oregon, and Washington), which includes a farm-level equation of irrigated share and crop-specific equations of technology adoption and water application rate (orchard/vineyard, vegetable, wheat, alfalfa, hay, and pasture). We find that economic and physical water scarcity, climate, and extreme weather, such as frost, extreme heat, and drought, significantly impact producers’ irrigation decisions. Producers use sprinkler technologies or additional water applications to mitigate risk of crop damage from extreme weather. Water application rates are least responsive to surface water cost or groundwater well depth for producers of orchard/vineyard. Water supply institutions influence producers’ irrigation decisions. Producers who receive water from federal agencies use higher water application rates and are less likely to adopt water-saving irrigation technologies for some crops. Institutional arrangements, including access to distinct water sources (surface or ground) and whether surface water cost is fee based, also affect the responsiveness of water application rates to changes in surface water cost. The analysis provides valuable information about how producers in irrigated agricultural production systems would respond and adapt to water pricing policies and climate change.

Description: The sedimentary sequence deposited during the deglaciation phase following the last glacial maximum in the Storfjorden trough, on the northwestern Barents Sea south of Svalbard, was sampled with 10 piston and gravity cores during the SVAIS and EGLACOM cruises. Three cores (SV-02, SV-03 and SV-05) collected on the upper continental slope are characterized by a thin (20–40 cm) Holocene interval and a thick (up to 4.5 m in core SV-03) late Pleistocene sequence of finely laminated fine-grained sediments that have been interpreted as plumites deposited during the Melt Water Pulse 1a (MWP-1a). Radiocarbon ages obtained at the top and bottom of this stratigraphic interval revealed that deposition occurred during less than two centuries at around 15 ka ago, with a very high sedimentary rate exceeding 3 cm a –1 . We studied the palaeomagnetic and rock magnetic properties of this interval, by taking magnetic measurements at 1 cm spacing on u-channel samples collected from the three cores. The data show that this sequence is characterized by good palaeomagnetic properties and the palaeomagnetic and rock magnetic trends may be correlated at high resolution from core to core. The obtained palaeomagnetic data therefore offer the unique opportunity to investigate in detail the rate of geomagnetic palaeosecular variation (PSV) in the high northern latitudes at a decadal scale. Notwithstanding the palaeomagnetic trends of the three cores may be closely matched, the amplitude of directional PSV and the consequent virtual geomagnetic pole (VGP) scatter (S) is distinctly higher in one core (SV-05) than in the other two cores (SV-02 and SV-03). This might result from a variable proportion of two distinct populations of magnetic minerals in core SV-05, as suggested by the variable tendency to acquire a gyromagnetic remanent magnetization at high fields during the AF demagnetization treatment. For the plumite interval of cores SV-02 and SV-03, where the magnetic mineralogy is uniform and magnetite is the main magnetic carrier, a S value of about 9° is obtained. We consider this value as a reliable approximation of palaeomagnetic secular variation at a latitude of 75°N over a time interval spanning a couple of centuries around 15 ka ago.

Description: A recent study of the Matuyama–Brunhes (M-B) geomagnetic field reversal recorded in exposed lacustrine sediments from the Sulmona Basin (Italy) provided a continuous, high-resolution record indicating that the reversal of the field direction at the terminus of the M-B boundary (MBB) occurred in less than a century, about 786 ka ago. In the sediment, thin (4–6 cm) remagnetized horizons were recognized above two distinct tephra layers—SUL2-19 and SUL2-20—that occur ~25 and ~35 cm below the MBB, respectively. Also, a faint, millimetre-thick tephra (SUL2-18) occurs 2–3 cm above the MBB. With the aim of improving the temporal resolution of the previous Sulmona MBB record and understanding the possible influence of cryptotephra on the M-B record in the Sulmona Basin, we performed more detailed sampling and analyses of overlapping standard and smaller samples from a 50 cm-long block that spans the MBB. The new data indicate that (i) the MBB is even sharper than previously reported and occurs ~2.5 cm below tephra SUL2-18, in agreement with the previous study; (ii) the MBB coincides with the rise of an intensity peak of the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) intensity, which extends across SUL2-18; (iii) except for a 2-cm-thick interval just above tephra SUL2-18, the rock magnetic parameters ( k , ARM, M r , M s , B c , B cr ) indicate exactly the same magnetic mineralogy throughout the sampled sequence. We conclude that either SUL2-18 resulted in the remagnetization of an interval of about 6 cm (i.e. during the NRM intensity peak spanning ~260 ± 110 yr, according to the estimated local sedimentation rate), and thus the detailed MBB record is lost because it is overprinted, or the MBB is well recorded, occurred abruptly about 2.5 cm below SUL2-18 and lasted less than 13 ± 6 yr. Both hypotheses challenge our understanding of the geomagnetic field behaviour during a polarity transition and/or of the NRM acquisition process in the Sulmona lacustrine sediment.

Description: Steady plate subduction elastically brings about permanent lithospheric deformation in island arcs, though this effect has been neglected in most studies based on elastic dislocation theory. We investigate the characteristics of the permanent lithospheric deformation using a kinematic model, in which steady slip motion is given along a plate interface in the elastic lithosphere overlying the viscoelastic asthenosphere under gravity. As a rule of thumb, long-term lithospheric deformation can be understood as a bending of an elastic plate floating on non-viscous fluid, because the asthenosphere behaves like water on the long term. The steady slip below the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary does not contribute to long-term lithospheric deformation. Hence, the key parameters that control the lithospheric deformation are only the thickness of the lithosphere and the geometry of the plate interface. Slip on a plate interface generally causes substantial vertical displacement, and gravity always tries to retrieve the original gravitational equilibrium. For a curved plate interface gravity causes convex upward bending of the island-arc lithosphere, while for a planar plate interface gravity causes convex downward bending. Larger curvature and thicker lithosphere generally results in larger deformation. When the curvature changes along the plate interface, internal deformation is also involved intrinsically, which modifies the deformation field due to gravity. Because the plate interface generally has some curvature, at least near the trench, convex upward bending of the island-arc lithosphere, which involves uplift of island-arc and subsidence around the trench, is always realized. On the other hand, the deformation field of the island-arc lithosphere sensitively depends on lithospheric thickness and plate interface geometry. These characteristics obtained by the numerical simulation are consistent with observed topography and free-air gravity anomalies in subduction zones: a pair of topography and gravity anomalies, high in the arc and low around the trench, is observed without exceptions all over the world, while there are large variety in the amplitude and horizontal scale of the topography and gravity anomalies.

Description: We test the ability of large-scale velocity fields inferred from geomagnetic secular variation data to produce the global magnetic field of the Earth. Our kinematic dynamo calculations use quasi-geostrophic (QG) flows inverted from geomagnetic field models which, as such, incorporate flow structures that are Earth-like and may be important for the geodynamo. Furthermore, the QG hypothesis allows straightforward prolongation of the flow from the core surface to the bulk. As expected from previous studies, we check that a simple QG flow is not able to sustain the magnetic field against ohmic decay. Additional complexity is then introduced in the flow, inspired by the action of the Lorentz force. Indeed, on centennial timescales, the Lorentz force can balance the Coriolis force and strict quasi-geostrophy may not be the best ansatz. When our columnar flow is modified to account for the action of the Lorentz force, magnetic field is generated for Elsasser numbers larger than 0.25 and magnetic Reynolds numbers larger than 100. This suggests that our large-scale flow captures the relevant features for the generation of the Earth's magnetic field and that the invisible small-scale flow may not be directly involved in this process. Near the threshold, the resulting magnetic field is dominated by an axial dipole, with some reversed flux patches. Time dependence is also considered, derived from principal component analysis applied to the inverted flows. We find that time periods from 120 to 50 yr do not affect the mean growth rate of the kinematic dynamos. Finally, we note that the footprint of the inner core in the magnetic field generated deep in the bulk of the shell, although we did not include one in our computations.

Description: The Auca Mahuida volcano (2.03–0.88 Ma) located east of the Andean thrust front in the Neuquén basin (Argentina) hosts an oil system of thermogenic origin and is affected by the NW–SE striking-faults. Intrusive bodies and the underlying Jurassic sediments constitute the reservoir rocks. Aeromagnetic data collected in the Auca Mahuida area detected multiple dipolar magnetic anomalies, many of which have reverse polarity. Palaeomagnetic measurements on rock samples collected in the field together with available age determinations indicate that the reversely magnetized sources were mainly emplaced during the Matuyama reverse polarity chron while the normal polarity sources were emplaced during the Olduvai and/or Jaramillo subchrons. The location and geometry of the intrusive bodies is poorly known and the customary magnetic inversion is rendered difficult because of multiple natural remanent magnetization directions. To address these difficulties, a voxel inversion was applied to model the vector residual magnetic intensity (VRMI) transformation of the observed total magnetic intensity data. The modelling showed a 1.5 km deep, subcircular ring-shaped intrusion below the summit of the volcano and a series of NW–SE elongated, fault-controlled intrusive bodies to depths up to 3–4 km. Our results show that magnetic data and VRMI modelling help resolve the geometry of the shallow plumbing system of volcanoes with remanently magnetized sources, and estimate the depth and geometry of potential oil reservoirs in volcanic areas.

Description: We investigate the influence of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) on the deformation at the surface and at seismogenic depths in Fennoscandia. The surface strain rate field, derived from geodetic data, is controlled by GIA which causes NW–SE extension of up to 4  x  10 –9  yr –1 in most of mainland Fennoscandia, surrounded by regions of radial shortening towards the centre of uplift. The seismic deformation field, derived from a new compilation of focal mechanisms, shows consistent NW–SE compression on the Norwegian continental margin and a tendency towards tension in mainland Fennoscandia. The seismic moment rate is at least two orders of magnitude smaller than the geodetic moment rate. We propose that the low level of seismicity and the tendency towards tensional focal mechanisms in mainland Fennoscandia may be explained by the destructive interference of the regional stress from ridge push with the flexural stress due to GIA.

Description: New Guinea is a region characterized by rapid oblique convergence between the Pacific and Australian tectonic plates. The detailed tectonics of the region, including the partitioning of relative block motions and fault slip rates within this complex boundary plate boundary zone are still not well understood. In this study, we quantify the distribution of the deformation throughout the central and western parts of Papua New Guinea (PNG) using 20 yr of GPS data (1993–2014). We use an elastic block model to invert the regional GPS velocities as well as earthquake slip vectors for the location and rotation rates of microplate Euler poles as well as fault slip parameters in the region. Convergence between the Pacific and the Australian plates is accommodated in northwestern PNG largely by the New Guinea Trench with rates exceeding 90 mm yr –1 , indicating that this is the major active interplate boundary. However, some convergent deformation is partitioned into a shear component with ~12 per cent accommodated by the Bewani-Torricelli fault zone and the southern Highlands Fold-and-Thrust Belt. New GPS velocities in the eastern New Guinea Highlands region have led to the identification of the New Guinea Highlands and the Papuan Peninsula being distinctly different blocks, separated by a boundary through the Aure Fold-and-Thrust Belt complex which accommodates an estimated 4–5 mm yr –1 of left-lateral and 2–3 mm yr –1 of convergent motion. This implies that the Highlands Block is rotating in a clockwise direction relative to the rigid Australian Plate, consistent with the observed transition to left-lateral strike-slip regime observed in western New Guinea Highlands. We find a better fit of our block model to the observed velocities when assigning the current active boundary between the Papuan Peninsula and the South Bismark Block to be to the north of the city of Lae on the Gain Thrust, rather than on the more southerly Ramu-Markham fault as previously thought. This may indicate a temporary shift of activity onto out of sequence thrusts like the Gain Thrust as opposed to the main frontal thrust (the Ramu-Markham fault). In addition, we show that the southern Highlands Fold-and-Thrust Belt is the major boundary between the rigid Australian Plate and the New Guinea Highlands Block, with convergence occurring at rates between ~6 and 13 mm yr –1 .

Description: We examine the geodetically derived rotational variations for the rate of change of degree-two harmonics of Earth's geopotential, $\skew5\dot J_2$ , and true polar wander, combining a recent melting model of glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets taken from the IPCC 2013 Report (AR5) with two representative GIA ice models describing the last deglaciation, ICE5G and the ANU model developed at the Australian National University. Geodetically derived observations of $\skew4\dot J_2$ are characterized by temporal changes of –(3.7 ± 0.1)  x 10 –11 yr –1 for the period 1976–1990 and –(0.3 ± 0.1)  x 10 –11 yr –1 after ~2000. The AR5 results make it possible to evaluate the recent melting of the major ice sheets and glaciers for three periods, 1900–1990, 1991–2001 and after 2002. The observed $\skew4\dot J_2$ and the component of $\skew4\dot J_2$ due to recent melting for different periods indicate a long-term change in $\skew4\dot J_2$ —attributed to the Earth's response to the last glacial cycle—of –(6.0–6.5)  x 10 –11 yr –1 , significantly different from the values adopted to infer the viscosity structure of the mantle in most previous studies. This is a main conclusion of this study. We next compare this estimate with the values of $\skew4\dot J_2$ predicted by GIA ice models to infer the viscosity structure of the mantle, and consequently obtain two permissible solutions for the lower mantle viscosity ( lm ), ~10 22 and (5–10)  x 10 22 Pa s, for both adopted ice models. These two solutions are largely insensitive to the lithospheric thickness and upper mantle viscosity as indicated by previous studies and relatively insensitive to the viscosity structure of the D '' layer. The ESL contributions from the Antarctic ice sheet since the last glacial maximum (LGM) for ICE5G and ANU are about 20 and 30 m, respectively, but glaciological reconstructions of the Antarctic LGM ice sheet have suggested that its ESL contribution may have been less than ~10 m. The GIA-induced $\skew4\dot J_2$ for GIA ice models with an Antarctic ESL component of ~10 m suggests two permissible lower mantle viscosity solutions of lm ~ 2  x 10 22 and ~5  x 10 22 Pa s or one solution with (2–5)  x 10 22 Pa s. These results suggest that the effective lower mantle viscosity is larger than ~10 22 Pa s regardless of the uncertainties for an Antarctic ESL component. We also examine the polar wander due to recent melting and GIA processes, suggesting that the observed polar wander may be significantly attributed to convection motions in the mantle and/or another cause, particularly for permissible lower mantle viscosity solution of (5–10)  x 10 22 Pa s.

Description: In this work, we test the analysis of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) for the study of diapirs in the Naval salt wall that is located in the western end of the South Pyrenean Central Unit. Two hundred eighty-six specimens from 30 sites were sampled in the mobilized Middle-Upper Triassic evaporites and shales that constitute the core of this diapir. Resulting magnetic ellipsoids are mostly oblate and scalar parameters are similar to those found in weakly deformed, sedimentary rocks. From the observation of samples and thin sections, magnetic fabrics can be related to petrofabric: magnetic foliation corresponds to flattening or shear planes and magnetic lineation to flow/shear direction, elongation of grains or tight microfolds. The magnetic foliation shows a roughly circular pattern with shallow dips and some deflections due to Pyrenean structures. Magnetic lineations show a slightly dominant NE–SW trend and shallow plunges. Magnetic lineations and foliations are consistent with the theoretical pattern expected at the roof of a vertically grown salt wall, thus supporting that magnetic fabrics registered evaporitic flow at late stages of diapiric growth. We demonstrate that AMS is an efficient and promising tool to define diapiric flow where tectonic fabric cannot be directly measured. Knowledge of the geometry and internal deformation of the diapiric body helps to minimize ambiguities in the interpretation of magnetic fabrics in terms of internal deformation.

Description: Several large earthquakes in the Hellenic subduction zone have been documented in historical records from around the eastern Mediterranean, but the relative seismic quiescence of the region over the period of instrumental observation means that the exact locations of these earthquakes and their tectonic significance are not known. We present AMS radiocarbon dates from uplifted late Holocene palæoshorelines from the island of Rhodes, showing that uplift is most consistent with a single large ( M W  ≥ 7.7) reverse-faulting earthquake between about 2000 BC and 200 BC. Analysis of the uplift treating the earthquake as a dislocation in an elastic half-space shows a predominantly reverse-faulting event with a slip vector oblique to the direction of convergence between Rhodes and Nubia. We suggest that the fault responsible for the uplift dips at an angle of 30–60° above the more gently dipping oblique subduction interface. The highly oblique convergence across the eastern Hellenic plate boundary zone appears to be partitioned into reverse slip on faults that strike parallel to the boundary and strike-parallel or oblique slip on the subduction interface. Hydrodynamical simulation of tsunami propagation from a range of tectonically plausible sources suggests that earthquakes on the fault uplifting Rhodes represent a significant tsunami hazard for Rhodes and SW Turkey, and also possibly for Cyprus and the Nile Delta.

Description: Reconstructions of the history of convergence between the Nubia and Eurasia plates constitute an important part of a broader framework for understanding deformation in the Mediterranean region and the closing of the Mediterranean Basin. Herein, we combine high-resolution reconstructions of Eurasia-North America and Nubia-North America Plate motions to determine rotations that describe Nubia-Eurasia Plate motion at ~1 Myr intervals for the past 20 Myr. We apply trans-dimensional hierarchical Bayesian inference to the Eurasia-North America and Nubia-North America rotation sequences in order to reduce noise in the newly estimated Nubia-Eurasia rotations. The noise-reduced rotation sequences for the Eurasia-North America and Nubia-North America Plate pairs describe remarkably similar kinematic histories since 20 Ma, consisting of relatively steady seafloor spreading from 20 to 8 Ma, ~20 per cent opening-rate slowdowns at 8–6.5 Ma, and steady plate motion from ~7 Ma to the present. Our newly estimated Nubia-Eurasia rotations predict that convergence across the central Mediterranean Sea slowed by ~50 per cent and rotated anticlockwise after ~25 Ma until 13 Ma. Motion since 13 Ma has remained relatively steady. An absence of evidence for a significant change in motion immediately before or during the Messinian Salinity Crisis at 6.3–5.6 Ma argues against a change in plate motion as its causative factor. The detachment of the Arabian Peninsula from Africa at 30–24 Ma may have triggered the convergence rate slowdown before 13 Ma; however, published reconstructions of Nubia-Eurasia motion for times before 20 Ma are too widely spaced to determine with confidence whether the two are correlated. A significant discrepancy between our new estimates of Nubia-Eurasia motion during the past few Myr and geodetic estimates calls for further investigation.

Description: Was the Yukon-Tanana Terrane (YTT), a California-sized part of south-central Yukon, an autochthonous or para-autochthonous part of northern British Columbia in the Early Cretaceous or was it part of a proposed allochthonous ‘Baja B.C.’ continent offshore of southern California? To answer this fundamental question, a paleomagnetic study has been completed on 347 specimens from 24 sites in the 114.7 ± 1.1 Ma Quiet Lake batholith. This 1300 km 2 pluton is composed mostly of massive medium-to-coarse grained biotite quartz monzonite that exhibits no evidence of either deformation or metamorphism, and that intrudes metamorphosed pre-Cretaceous basement rocks of the YTT in southern Yukon. The paleomagnetic analysis utilized thermal and alternating field step demagnetization, and saturation isothermal remanence methods. A well-defined characteristic remanent magnetization (ChRM) direction was isolated throughout the 500–585 °C temperature range at Decl. = 340.6°, Incl. = 77.4° ( N = 14 sites, k = 51.2, A 95 = 5.6°). The ChRM resides in magnetite with a low titanium content and is interpreted to be a primary thermoremanent magnetization. After correction for 490 km of geologically demonstrable dextral displacement on the inboard Tintina fault zone, the Quiet Lake batholith's paleopole is not significantly different at 95 per cent confidence from the co-eval 115 Ma reference paleopole for North America, giving non-significant translation and rotation estimates of 1.4° ± 5.1° (1) northwestwards and 10° ± 13° (1) clockwise, respectively. Thus, this is the first Early Cretaceous paleopole to show clearly that the YTT in Yukon is a para-autochthon that was part of North America's continental margin at that time. Further, after correction for Tintina fault displacement, the eight available Mesozoic YTT paleopoles agree closely with the North American apparent polar wander path (APWP). In contrast, the 22 paleopoles from the Intermontane Belt show the expected behaviour of an allochthonous thin-skin of terranes (i.e. ‘Baja B.C.’ behaviour) and record ~8° of northward translation and ~50° of clockwise rotation relative to both the YTT and North American APWPs during the Mesozoic and Paleogene.

Description: The Yellowstone–East Snake River Plain hotspot track has been intensely studied since several decades and is widely considered to result from the interaction of a mantle plume with the North American plate. An integrated conclusive geodynamic interpretation of this extensive data set is however presently still lacking, and our knowledge of the dynamical processes beneath Yellowstone is patchy. It has been argued that the Yellowstone plume has delaminated the lower part of the thick Wyoming cratonic lithosphere. We derive an original dynamic model to quantify delamination processes related to mantle plume–lithosphere interactions. We show that fast (~300 ka) lithospheric delamination is consistent with the observed timing of formation of successive volcanic centres along the Yellowstone hotspot track and requires (i) a tensile stress regime within the whole lithosphere exceeding its failure threshold, (ii) a purely plastic rheology in the lithosphere when stresses reach this yield limit, (iii) a dense lower part of the 200 km thick Wyoming lithosphere and (iv) a decoupling melt horizon inside the median part of the lithosphere. We demonstrate that all these conditions are verified and that ~150 km large and ~100 km thick lithospheric blocks delaminate within 300 ka when the Yellowstone plume ponded below the 200 km thick Wyoming cratonic lithosphere. Furthermore, we take advantage of the available extensive regional geophysical and geological observation data sets to design a numerical 3-D upper-mantle convective model. We propose a map of the ascending convective sheets contouring the Yellowstone plume. The model further evidences the development of a counter-flow within the lower part of the lithosphere centred just above the Yellowstone mantle plume axis. This counter-flow controls the local lithospheric stress field, and as a result the trajectories of feeder dykes linking the partial melting source within the core of the mantle plume with the crust by crosscutting the lithospheric mantle. This counter-flow further explains the 50 km NE shift observed between the mantle plume axis and the present-day Yellowstone Caldera as well as the peculiar shaped crustal magma chambers.

Description: We present source models for the August 2014 Murmuri (Dehloran) earthquake sequence in the Zagros Mountains of Iran. An M w 6.2 mainshock was followed by an aftershock sequence containing five events of M w ≥ 5.4. Models of P and SH waveforms show that all events had dominantly thrust-faulting mechanisms, and had centroid depths that place them within the thick sedimentary sequence, above the crystalline basement. The combination of our estimated focal mechanisms, relative relocations of the event hypocentres and the surface displacement patterns observed using InSAR imply that the mainshock and largest aftershock ruptured different fault planes and both contributed to the surface deformation. The fault planes both slipped in horizontally elongated patches, possibly due to rheological layering limiting the updip and downdip extent of rupture. The slip vector of the Murmuri mainshock implies that the decollement beneath the Lorestan Arc is weaker than any such feature beneath the Dezful Embayment, providing an explanation for the plan-view sinuosity of the range-front of the Zagros Mountains.

Description: There exists a fundamental as well as practical interest in being able to accurately forecast the future evolution of Earth's magnetic field at decadal to secular ranges. This work enables such forecasts by combining geomagnetic data with an Earth-like numerical model of a convection-driven fluid dynamo. The underlying data assimilation framework builds on recent progress in inverse geodynamo modelling, a method which estimates an internal dynamic structure for Earth's core from a snapshot of the magnetic field and its instantaneous rate of change at the surface, and takes advantage of linear relationships and long-range correlations between observed and hidden state variables. Here the method is further evolved into a single-epoch ensemble Kalman filter, in order to initialise at a given epoch an ensemble of states compatible with the observations and representative of the uncertainties in the estimation of hidden quantities. The ensemble dynamics, obtained by subsequent numerical integration of the prognostic model equations, are found to be governed by a thermal wind balance or equilibrium between buoyancy forces, the Coriolis force and the pressure gradient. The resulting core fluid flow pattern is a quasi-steady eccentric gyre organised in a column parallel to Earth's rotation axis, in equilibrium with a longitudinal hemispheric convective density anomaly pattern. The flow provides induction for the magnetic field, which also undergoes a realistic amount of diffusion. Predictions of the present magnetic field from data taken within the past century show that the ensemble has an average retaining good consistency with the true geomagnetic evolution and an acceptable spread well representative of prediction errors, up to at least a secular range. The predictability of the geodynamo thus appears to significantly exceed previous theoretical expectations based on the chaotic divergence of ensemble members. The assimilation generally outperforms the linear mathematical extrapolations from a 30-yr prediction range onwards, with a 40 per cent improvement in Earth-surface error at a secular range. The geomagnetic axial dipole decay observed over the past two centuries is predicted to continue at a similar pace in the next century, with a further loss of $1.1\pm 0.3 \hspace{2.84526pt}\mathrm{\mu T}$ by year 2115. The focal (or minimum intensity) point of the South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly is predicted to enter the South Pacific region in the next century, with the anomaly itself further deepening and widening. By year 2065, the minimum intensity is predicted to decrease by $1.46\pm 0.4 \hspace{2.84526pt}\mathrm{\mu T}$ at the Earth surface and the focal point to move 12.8 ± 1.4 deg westwards with a slight northward component. This corresponds to a drift rate of 0.26 deg yr –1 , similar to the typical geomagnetic westward drift observed over the past four centuries. The same drift rate is also predicted until 2115 with a further (but more uncertain) intensity decrease.

Description: Analyses of the costs of regulating greenhouse gas emissions from dairy production, which could be used to assess the effectiveness of alternative policy measures, is a missing link in the literature. This article addresses this gap by establishing the economic impact associated with a hypothetical greenhouse gas environmental regulatory regime across major dairy producing counties in the United States. In doing so, the article makes three important contributions to the literature. First, it develops a comprehensive pollution index based on Environmental Protection Agency methodologies, which contrasts with previous studies that rely on partial measures based only on surplus nitrogen stemming from the over-application of fertilizer. Second, the article uses a directional output distance function, an approach that has not been employed previously to evaluate polluting technologies in the U.S. dairy sector. Third, the article incorporates a four-way error approach that accounts for unobserved county heterogeneity, time-invariant persistent technical efficiency, time-varying transient technical efficiency, and a random error. The results indicate that regulating greenhouse gas emissions from dairy farming would induce a 5-percentage point increase in average technical efficiency. In addition, the economic costs of implementing this hypothetical regulatory framework exhibit significant spatial variation across counties in the United States.

Description: Displacements and stress-field changes associated with earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides and human activity are often simulated using numerical models in an attempt to understand the underlying processes and their governing physics. The application of elastic dislocation theory to these problems, however, may be biased because of numerical instabilities in the calculations. Here, we present a new method that is free of artefact singularities and numerical instabilities in analytical solutions for triangular dislocations (TDs) in both full-space and half-space. We apply the method to both the displacement and the stress fields. The entire 3-D Euclidean space $\mathbb {R}^{3}$ is divided into two complementary subspaces, in the sense that in each one, a particular analytical formulation fulfils the requirements for the ideal, artefact-free solution for a TD. The primary advantage of the presented method is that the development of our solutions involves neither numerical approximations nor series expansion methods. As a result, the final outputs are independent of the scale of the input parameters, including the size and position of the dislocation as well as its corresponding slip vector components. Our solutions are therefore well suited for application at various scales in geoscience, physics and engineering. We validate the solutions through comparison to other well-known analytical methods and provide the MATLAB codes.

Description: Using dynamic rupture models of a right-lateral fault embedded in an elastic or elastoplastic 3-D medium, we investigate elastic and inelastic responses of compliant fault zones to nearby earthquake ruptures. We particularly examine effects of fault zone depth, width, shape and rigidity reduction on the surface displacement field. Our results from elastic models show that deeper and wider fault zones generally result in larger residual displacements. However, for shallow fault zones, the vertical residual displacement is insensitive to or even decreases with fault zone width. The width of horizontal displacement anomalies across a fault zone is only indicative of the fault zone width near the Earth's surface. There are trade-off effects among fault zone depth, width, shape and rigidity reduction on the amplitude of surface residual displacements. Our elastoplastic models show that plastic strain can occur along the entire fault zone near the Earth's surface and in the extensional quadrant at depth, if fault zone rocks are close to failure before a nearby earthquake happens. Compared with results from elastic models, plastic strain near the Earth's surface generally enhances surface displacements of a fault zone and does not change the trend of effects of fault zone depth and width, while plastic strain at depth can result in reduced retrograde motion or sympathetic motion across the fault zone, and introduce complexities in effects of fault zone depth and width. Sympathetic horizontal motion more likely occurs across a narrow fault zone with inelastic response at depth. Vertical motion in the extensional quadrant may actually decrease with fault zone width in elastoplastic models. Sympathetic horizontal motion, or small retrograde horizontal motion in conjunction with large vertical motion above a fault zone is indicative of inelastic response of a fault zone at depth.

Description: Models of the glacial isostatic adjustment process, which is dominated by the influence of the Late Pleistocene cycle of glaciation and deglaciation, depend on two fundamental inputs: a history of ice-sheet loading and a model of the radial variation of mantle viscosity. These models may be tested and refined by comparing their local predictions of relative sea level history to geological inferences based upon appropriate sea level indicators. The U.S. Atlantic coast is a region of particular interest in this regard, due to the fact that data from the length of this coast provides a transect of the forebulge associated with the former Laurentide ice sheet. High-quality relative sea level histories from this region are employed herein to explore the ability of current models of mantle viscosity to explain the inferred evolution of relative sea level that have accompanied forebulge collapse following deglaciation. Existing misfits are characterized, and alternatives are explored for their reconciliation. It is demonstrated that a new model of mantle viscosity, referred to herein as VM6, when coupled with the latest model of deglaciation history ICE-6G_C, is able to eliminate the majority of these misfits, while continuing to reconcile a wide range of other important geophysical observables, as well as additional relative sea level data from the North American. West coast which also record the collapse of the forebulge but which have not been employed in tuning the viscosity profile to enable ICE-6G_C (VM6) to fit the East coast data set.

Description: Understanding the contribution of biogenic magnetic particles into sedimentary assemblages is a current challenge in palaeomagnetism. It has been demonstrated recently that magnetic particles produced through biologically controlled mineralization processes, such as magnetosomes from magnetotactic bacteria, contribute to the recording of natural remanent magnetization in marine and lacustrian sediments. Contributions from other, biologically induced, mineralization types, which are known from multiple laboratory experiments to include magnetic minerals, remain largely unknown. Here, we report magnetic properties of iron minerals formed by a community of iron- and manganese-reducing bacteria isolated from a natural groundwater deposit during a 2 yr long incubation experiment. The main iron phases of the biomineralized mass are lepidocrocite, goethite and magnetite, each of which has environmental significance. Unlike the majority of the previous studies that reported superparamagnetic grain size, and thus no remanence carrying capacity of biologically induced magnetite, hysteresis and first-order reversal curves measurements in our study have not detected significant superparamagnetic contribution. The biomineralized mass, instead, contains a mixture of single-domain to pseudo-single-domain and multidomain magnetite particles that are capable of carrying a stable chemical remanent magnetization. Isothermal remanent magnetization acquisition parameters and first-order reversal curves signatures of the biomineralized samples deviate from previously proposed criteria for the distinction of extracellular (biologically induced) magnetic particles in mixtures. Given its potential significance as a carrier of natural remanent magnetization, environmental requirements, distribution in nature and the efficiency in the geomagnetic field recording by biologically induced mineralization need comprehensive investigation.

Description: In the context of the 2014 realization of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame, the International DORIS (Doppler Orbitography Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite) Service (IDS) has delivered to the IERS a set of 1140 weekly SINEX files including station coordinates and Earth orientation parameters, covering the time period from 1993.0 to 2015.0. From this set of weekly SINEX files, the IDS combination centre estimated a cumulative DORIS position and velocity solution to obtain mean horizontal and vertical motion of 160 stations at 71 DORIS sites. The main objective of this study is to validate the velocities of the DORIS sites by comparison with external models or time-series. Horizontal velocities are compared with two recent global plate models (GEODVEL 2010 and NNR-MORVEL56). Prior to the comparisons, DORIS horizontal velocities were corrected for Global Isostatic Adjustment from the ICE-6G (VM5a) model. For more than half of the sites, the DORIS horizontal velocities differ from the global plate models by less than 2–3 mm yr –1 . For five of the sites (Arequipa, Dionysos/Gavdos, Manila and Santiago) with horizontal velocity differences with respect to these models larger than 10 mm yr –1 , comparisons with GNSS estimates show the veracity of the DORIS motions. Vertical motions from the DORIS cumulative solution are compared with the vertical velocities derived from the latest GPS cumulative solution over the time span 1995.0–2014.0 from the University of La Rochelle solution at 31 co-located DORIS-GPS sites. These two sets of vertical velocities show a correlation coefficient of 0.83. Vertical differences are larger than 2 mm yr –1 at 23 percent of the sites. At Thule, the disagreement is explained by fine-tuned DORIS discontinuities in line with the mass variations of outlet glaciers. Furthermore, the time evolution of the vertical time-series from the DORIS station in Thule show similar trends to the GRACE equivalent water height.

Description: We have used ensemble averages of satellite-derived free-air gravity anomaly data, together with inverse modelling techniques, to determine the effective elastic thickness, T e , of circum-Pacific subducting oceanic lithosphere and its relationship to plate age. Synthetic modelling tests show that T e can be recovered best using gravity anomaly, rather than bathymetry, data and profiles that are at least 750 km long. Inverse modelling based on a uniform T e elastic plate suggests that T e increases with age of the subducting oceanic lithosphere and is given approximately by the depth to the 390 ± 10 °C oceanic isotherm based on a cooling plate model. Misfits between the observed and calculated gravity anomalies are significantly improved if a mechanically weak zone is included between the trench axis and the outer rise. This weak zone is coincident with observations of bend-faulting and seismicity. Inverse modelling shows that T e landward of the outer rise is generally 40–65 per cent less than the T e seaward of the outer rise. Both landward and seaward T e increases with age of the lithosphere and are given by the depth to the 342–349 °C and 671–714 °C oceanic isotherm, respectively. A dependence of T e on age is consistent with models for the cooling of oceanic lithosphere as it moves away from a mid-ocean ridge and the temperature-dependent ductile creep of oceanic lithospheric minerals such as olivine. By comparing the observed T e to the predicted T e based on laboratory-derived yield strength envelopes and an assumption of elastic-perfectly plastic deformation, we have attempted to constrain the rheology of oceanic lithosphere. Regardless of the assumed friction coefficient, the dry-olivine low-temperature plasticity flow laws of Goetze, Evans & Goetze, Raterron et al . and Mei et al . all provide quite a good fit to the observed T e at circum-Pacific subduction zones. This result contrasts with the Hawaiian Islands, where these flow laws are generally too strong to fit the observations. The discrepancy in rheology within Pacific plate may be caused by differences in the timescale of loading and therefore the amount of viscoelastic stress relaxation that has occurred. Other possibilities include thermal rejuvenation and magma-assisted flexure at the Hawaiian Islands.

Description: Large gaps and inconsistencies remain in published estimates of Nubia–Somalia plate motion based on reconstructions of seafloor spreading data around Africa. Herein, we use newly available reconstructions of the Southwest Indian Ridge at ~1-Myr intervals since 20 Ma to estimate Nubia–Somalia plate motion farther back in time than previously achieved and with an unprecedented degree of temporal resolution. At the northern end of the East African rift, our new estimates of Nubia–Somalia motion for six times from 0.78 Ma to 5.2 Ma differ by only 2 per cent from the rift-normal component of motion that is extrapolated from a recently estimated GPS angular velocity. The rate of rift-normal extension thus appears to have remained steady since at least 5.2 Ma. Our new rotations indicate that the two plates have moved relative to each other since at least 16 Ma and possibly longer. Motion has either been steady since at least 16 Ma or accelerated modestly between 6 and 5.2 Ma. Our Nubia–Somalia rotations predict 42.5 ± 3.8 km of rift-normal extension since 10.6 Ma across the well-studied, northern segment of the Main Ethiopian Rift, consistent with 40–50 km estimates for extension since 10.6 Myr based on seismological surveys of this narrow part of the plate boundary. Nubia–Somalia rotations are also derived by combining newly estimated Somalia–Arabia rotations that reconstruct the post-20-Ma opening of the Gulf of Aden with Nubia–Arabia rotations estimated via a probabilistic analysis of plausible opening scenarios for the Red Sea. These rotations predict Nubia–Somalia motion since 5.2 Myr that is consistent with that determined from Southwest Indian Ridge data and also predict 40 ± 3 km of rift-normal extension since 10.6 Ma across the Main Ethiopian Rift, consistent with our 42.5 ± 3.8 km Southwest Indian Ridge estimate. Our new rotations exclude at high confidence level previous estimates of 12 ± 13 and 123 ± 14 km for rift-normal extensions across the Main Ethiopian Rift since 10.6 Ma based on reconstructions of Chron 5n.2 along the Southwest Indian Ridge. Sparse coverage of magnetic reversals older than 16 Ma along the western third of the Southwest Indian Ridge precludes reliable determinations of Nubia–Somalia plate motion before 16 Ma, leaving unanswered the key question of when the motion between the two plates began.

Description: The TAMMAR segment of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge forms a classic propagating system centred about two degrees south of the Kane Fracture Zone. The segment is propagating to the south at a rate of 14 mm yr –1 , 15 per cent faster than the half-spreading rate. Here, we use seismic refraction data across the propagating rift, sheared zone and failed rift to investigate the crustal structure of the system. Inversion of the seismic data agrees remarkably well with crustal thicknesses determined from gravity modelling. We show that the crust is thickened beneath the highly magmatic propagating rift, reaching a maximum thickness of almost 8 km along the seismic line and an inferred (from gravity) thickness of about 9 km at its centre. In contrast, the crust in the sheared zone is mostly 4.5–6.5 km thick, averaging over 1 km thinner than normal oceanic crust, and reaching a minimum thickness of only 3.5 km in its NW corner. Along the seismic line, it reaches a minimum thickness of under 5 km. The PmP reflection beneath the sheared zone and failed rift is very weak or absent, suggesting serpentinisation beneath the Moho, and thus effective transport of water through the sheared zone crust. We ascribe this increased porosity in the sheared zone to extensive fracturing and faulting during deformation. We show that a bookshelf-faulting kinematic model predicts significantly more crustal thinning than is observed, suggesting that an additional mechanism of deformation is required. We therefore propose that deformation is partitioned between bookshelf faulting and simple shear, with no more than 60 per cent taken up by bookshelf faulting.

Description: A multi-year drought has taken a severe toll on the agricultural economy of California’s Central Valley. Index insurance is an instrument with the potential to protect water users from economic losses due to periodic water shortages. An index insurance product based on the Sacramento Index and adapted to the Central Valley Project water supply is proposed. To address the potential for intertemporal adverse selection, three product designs are suggested: (1) "early bird" insurance; (2) variable premium insurance; and (3) variable deductible insurance. The performance of the designs are assessed using loss functions from the Westlands Water District in the San Joaquin Valley.

Description: Monthly means of the magnetic field measurements at ground observatories are a key data source for studying temporal changes of the core magnetic field. However, when they are calculated in the usual way, contributions of external (magnetospheric and ionospheric) origin may remain, which make them less favourable for studying the field generated by dynamo action in the core. We remove external field predictions, including a new way of characterizing the magnetospheric ring current, from the data and then calculate revised monthly means using robust methods. The geomagnetic secular variation (SV) is calculated as the first annual differences of these monthly means, which also removes the static crustal field. SV time-series based on revised monthly means are much less scattered than those calculated from ordinary monthly means, and their variances and correlations between components are smaller. On the annual to decadal timescale, the SV is generated primarily by advection in the fluid outer core. We demonstrate the utility of the revised monthly means by calculating models of the core surface advective flow between 1997 and 2013 directly from the SV data. One set of models assumes flow that is constant over three months; such models exhibit large and rapid temporal variations. For models of this type, less complex flows achieve the same fit to the SV derived from revised monthly means than those from ordinary monthly means. However, those obtained from ordinary monthly means are able to follow excursions in SV that are likely to be external field contamination rather than core signals. Having established that we can find models that fit the data adequately, we then assess how much temporal variability is required. Previous studies have suggested that the flow is consistent with torsional oscillations (TO), solid body-like oscillations of fluid on concentric cylinders with axes aligned along the Earth's rotation axis. TO have been proposed to explain decadal timescale changes in the length-of-day. We invert for flow models where the only temporal changes are consistent with TO, but such models have an unacceptably large data misfit. However, if we relax the TO constraint to allow a little more temporal variability, we can fit the data as well as with flows assumed constant over three months, demonstrating that rapid SV changes can be reproduced by rather small flow changes. Although the flow itself changes slowly, its time derivative can be locally (temporally and spatially) large, in particular when and where core surface secular acceleration peaks. Spherical harmonic expansion coefficients of the flows are not well resolved, and many of them are strongly correlated. Averaging functions, a measure of our ability to determine the flow at a given location from the data distribution available, are poor approximations to the ideal, even when centred on points of the core surface below areas of high observatory density. Both resolution and averaging functions are noticeably worse for the toroidal flow component, which dominates the flow, than the poloidal flow component, except around the magnetic equator where averaging functions for both components are poor.

Description: Knowledge and understanding of the ocean–continent transition (OCT) structure, continent–ocean boundary (COB) location and crustal type are of critical importance in evaluating rifted continental margin formation and evolution. OCT structure, COB location and magmatic type also have important implications for the understanding of the geodynamics of continental breakup and in the evaluation of petroleum systems in deep-water frontier oil and gas exploration at rifted continental margins. Mapping the distribution of thinned continental crust and lithosphere, its distal extent and the start of unequivocal oceanic crust and hence determining the OCT structure and COB location at rifted continental margins is therefore a generic global problem. In order to assist in the determination of the OCT structure and COB location, we present methodologies using gravity anomaly inversion, residual depth anomaly (RDA) analysis and subsidence analysis, which we apply to the west Iberian rifted continental margin. The west Iberian margin has one of the most complete data sets available for deep magma-poor rifted margins, so there is abundant data to which the results can be calibrated. Gravity anomaly inversion has been used to determine Moho depth, crustal basement thickness and continental lithosphere thinning; subsidence analysis has been used to determine the distribution of continental lithosphere thinning; and RDAs have been used to investigate the OCT bathymetric anomalies with respect to expected oceanic bathymetries at rifted continental margins. These quantitative analytical techniques have been applied to the west Iberian rifted continental margin along profiles IAM9, Lusigal 12 (with the TGS-extension) and ISE-01. Our predictions of OCT structure, COB location and magmatic type (i.e. the volume of magmatic addition, whether the margin is ‘normal’ magmatic, magma-starved or magma-rich) have been tested and validated using ODP wells (Legs 103, 149 and 173), which provide observational constraints on the west Iberian margin.

Description: The large-scale geological evolution of the North Atlantic Realm during the past 450 Myr is largely understood, but crucial elements remain uncertain. These involve the Caledonian orogeny, the formation of the North Atlantic and accompanying igneous activity, and the present-day high topography surrounding the North Atlantic. Teleseismic receiver function interpretation in the Central Fjord Region of East Greenland recently suggested the presence of a fossil Caledonian subduction complex, including a slab of eclogitised mafic crust and an overlying wedge of serpentinised mantle peridotite. Here we further investigate this topic using inverse receiver functions modelling. The obtained velocity models are tested with regard to their consistency with the regional gravity field and topography. We find that the obtained receiver function model is generally consistent with gravity and isostasy. The western part of the section, with topography of 〉1000 m, is clearly supported by the 40-km-thick crust. The eastern part requires additional buoyancy as provided by the hydrated mantle wedge. The geometry, velocities and densities are consistent with interpretation of the lithospheric structure as a fossil subduction zone complex. The spatial relations with Caledonian structures suggest a Caledonian origin. The results indicate that topography is isostatically compensated by density variations within the lithosphere, and that significant dynamic topography is not required at the present-day.

Description: We present a high-resolution shear wave tomography of the Japan subduction zone down to a depth of 700 km, which is determined by inverting a large number of high-quality S -wave arrival-time data from local earthquakes and teleseismic events. The subducting Pacific and Philippine Sea (PHS) slabs are revealed clearly as high-velocity (high- V ) zones, whereas low-velocity (low- V ) anomalies are revealed in the mantle wedge above the two slabs. The PHS slab has subducted aseismically down to a depth of 480 km under the Japan Sea and to a depth of 540 km under the Tsushima Strait. A window is revealed within the aseismic PHS slab, being consistent with P -wave tomography. Prominent low- V and high-Poisson's ratio ( ) anomalies exist below the PHS slab and above the Pacific slab, which reflect hot and wet mantle upwelling caused by the joint effect of deep dehydration of the Pacific slab and convective circulation process in the mantle wedge above the Pacific slab. The hot and wet mantle upwelling has caused the complex geometry and structure of the PHS slab in SW Japan, and contributed to the Quaternary volcanism along the Japan Sea coast. In eastern Japan, low- V zones are revealed at depths of 200–700 km below the Pacific slab, which may reflect hot upwelling from the lower mantle or even the core–mantle boundary.

Description: The electrical rock conductivity is a sensitive indicator for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection and migration processes. For a reliable balancing of the free CO 2 in pore space with petrophysical models such as Archie's law or for the detection of migrating CO 2 , detailed knowledge of the pore water conductivity during interaction with CO 2 is essential but not available yet. Contrary to common assumptions, pore water conductivity cannot be assumed constant since CO 2 is a reactive gas that dissolves into the pore water in large amounts and provides additional charge carriers due to the dissociation of carbonic acid. We consequently carried out systematic laboratory experiments to quantify and analyse the changes in saline pore water conductivity caused by CO 2 at thermodynamic equilibrium. Electrical conductivity is measured on pore water samples for pressures up to 30 MPa and temperatures up to 80 °C. The parameter range covers the gaseous, liquid and supercritical state of the CO 2 involved. Pore water salinities from 0.006 up to 57.27 g L –1 sodium chloride were investigated as well as selective other ion species. At the same time, the CO 2 concentration in the salt solution was determined by a wet-chemical procedure. A two-regime behaviour appears: for small salinities, we observe an increase of up to more than factor 3 in the electrical pore water conductivity, which strongly depends on the solution salinity (low-salinity regime). This is an expected behaviour, since the additional ions originating from the dissociation of carbonic acid positively contribute to the solution conductivity. However, when increasing salinities are considered this effect is completely diminished. For highly saline solutions, the increased mutual impeding causes the mobility of all ions to decrease, which may result in a significant reduction of conductivity by up to 15 per cent despite the added CO 2 (high-salinity regime). We present the data set covering the pressure, temperature, salinity and ion species dependence of the CO 2 effect. Furthermore, the observations are analysed and predicted with a semi-analytical formulation for the electrical pore water conductivity taking into account the species’ interactions. For the applicability of our results in practice of exploration and monitoring, we additionally provide a purely empirical formulation to compute the impact of CO 2 on pore water conductivity at equilibrium which only requires the input of pressure, temperature and salinity information.

Description: The Piano di Pezza fault is the central section of the 35 km long L'Aquila-Celano active normal fault-system in the central Apennines of Italy. Although palaeoseismic data document high Holocene vertical slip rates (~1 mm yr –1 ) and a remarkable seismogenic potential of this fault, its subsurface setting and Pleistocene cumulative displacement are still poorly known. We investigated for the first time the shallow subsurface of a key section of the main Piano di Pezza fault splay by means of high-resolution seismic and electrical resistivity tomography coupled with time-domain electromagnetic soundings (TDEM). Our surveys cross a ~5-m-high fault scarp that was generated by repeated surface-rupturing earthquakes displacing Holocene alluvial fans. We provide 2-D Vp and resistivity images, which show significant details of the fault structure and the geometry of the shallow basin infill material down to 50 m depth. Our data indicate that the upper fault termination has a sub-vertical attitude, in agreement with palaeoseismological trench evidence, whereas it dips ~50° to the southwest in the deeper part. We recognize some low-velocity/low-resistivity regions in the fault hangingwall that we relate to packages of colluvial wedges derived from scarp degradation, which may represent the record of some Holocene palaeo-earthquakes. We estimate a ~13–15 m throw of this fault splay since the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (~18 ka), leading to a 0.7–0.8 mm yr –1 throw rate that is quite in accordance with previous palaeoseismic estimation of Holocene vertical slip rates. The 1-D resistivity models from TDEM soundings collected along the trace of the electrical profile significantly match with 2-D resistivity images. Moreover, they indicate that in the fault hangingwall, ~200 m away from the surface fault trace, the pre-Quaternary carbonate basement is at ~90–100 m depth. We therefore provide a minimal ~150–160 m estimate of the cumulative throw of the Piano di Pezza fault system in the investigated section. We further hypothesize that the onset of the Piano di Pezza fault activity may date back to the Middle Pleistocene (~0.5 Ma), so this is a quite young active normal fault if compared to other mature normal fault systems active since 2–3 Ma in this portion of the central Apennines.

Description: To investigate the coupling relationship between great earthquake and ionosphere, the GPS-derived total electron contents (TECs) by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe and the foF2 data from the Space Weather Prediction Center were used to analyse the impending ionospheric anomalies before the Iquique Mw8.2 earthquake in Chile on 2014 April 1. Eliminating effects of the solar and geomagnetic activities on ionosphere by the sliding interquartile range with the 27-day window, the TEC analysis results represent that there were negative anomalies occurred on 15th day prior to the earthquake, and positive anomalies appeared in 5th day before the earthquake. The foF2 analysis results of ionosonde stations Jicamarca, Concepcion and Ramey show that the foF2 increased by 40, 50 and 45 per cent, respectively, on 5th day before the earthquake. The TEC anomalous distribution indicates that there was a widely TEC decrement over the epicentre with the duration of 6 hr on 15th day before the earthquake. On 5th day before the earthquake, the TEC over the epicentre increased with the amplitude of 15 TECu, and the duration exceeded 6 hr. The anomalies occurred on the side away from the equator. All TEC anomalies in these days were within the bounds of equatorial anomaly zone where should be the focal area to monitor ionospheric anomaly before strong earthquakes. The relationship between ionospheric anomalies and geomagnetic activity was detected by the cross wavelet analysis, which implied that the foF2 was not affected by the magnetic activities on 15th day and 5th day prior to the earthquake, but the TECs were partially affected by anomalous magnetic activity during some periods of 5th day prior to the earthquake.

Description: We present the first estimates of Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR) plate motions at high temporal resolution during the Quaternary and Neogene based on nearly 5000 crossings of 21 magnetic reversals out to C6no (19.72 Ma) and the digitized traces of 17 fracture zones and transform faults. Our reconstructions of this slow-spreading mid-ocean ridge reveal several unexpected results with notable implications for regional and global plate reconstructions since 20 Ma. Extrapolations of seafloor opening distances to zero-age seafloor based on reconstructions of reversals C1n (0.78 Ma) through C3n.4 (5.2 Ma) reveal evidence for surprisingly large outward displacement of 5 ± 1 km west of 32°E, where motion between the Nubia and Antarctic plates occurs, but 2 ± 1 km east of 32°E, more typical of most mid-ocean ridges. Newly estimated SWIR seafloor spreading rates are up to 15 per cent slower everywhere along the ridge than previous estimates. Reconstructions of the numerous observations for times back to 11 Ma confirm the existence of the hypothesized Lwandle plate at high confidence level and indicate that the Lwandle plate's western and eastern boundaries respectively intersect the ridge near the Andrew Bain transform fault complex at 32°E and between ~45°E and 52°E, in accord with previous results. The Nubia–Antarctic, Lwandle–Antarctic and Somalia–Antarctic rotation sequences that best fit many magnetic reversal, fracture zone and transform fault crossings define previously unknown changes in the Neogene motions of all three plate pairs, consisting of ~20 per cent slowdowns in their spreading rates at 7.2 $^{+0.9 }_{ -1.4}$ Ma if we enforce a simultaneous change in motion everywhere along the SWIR and gradual 3°–7° anticlockwise rotations of the relative slip directions. We apply trans-dimensional Bayesian analysis to our noisy, best-fitting rotation sequences in order to estimate less-noisy rotation sequences suitable for use in future global plate reconstructions and geodynamic studies. Notably, our new Nubia–Antarctic reconstruction of C5n.2 (11.0 Ma) predicts 20 per cent less opening than do two previous estimates, with important implications for motion that is estimated between the Nubia and Somalia plates. A Nubia–Somalia rotation determined from our Nubia–Antarctic and Somalia–Antarctic plate rotations for C5n.2 (11.0 Ma) predicts cumulative opening of 45 ± 4 km (95 per cent uncertainty) across the northernmost East Africa rift since 11.0 Ma, 70 per cent less than a recent 129 ± 62 km opening estimate based on a now-superseded interpretation of Anomaly 5 along the western portion of the SWIR.

Description: Although the Matuyama–Brunhes boundary (MBB) in the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is very important in reliably correlating Quaternary loess with other sediments in the world, particularly with marine and polar ice cores, its exact stratigraphic position remains controversial. Previous investigations usually placed the MBB between paleosol unit S8 and loess unit L8 in various locations. To better understand the spatial differences in the MBB position, a high-resolution paleomagnetic study was conducted in a loess section of the Lantian Basin at the southern margin of the CLP. The results show that the MBB is situated in the middle of the relatively weak paleosol unit S7, consistent with a recent report on the MBB based on a 10 Be study from the Xifeng and Luochuan loess sections of the central CLP. However, the regional anomalously low magnetic susceptibility in paleosols S7 and S8 indicates that it is more reliable to determine the paleoclimate boundaries between loess and paleosol horizons of this segment with median grain size. Then, the MBB in the Yushan section can be correlated with the bottom of paleosol S7, corresponding to the older part of interglacial marine isotope stage 19. This result temporally reconciles the striking discrepancy of the position of the MBB recorded in between loess and other typical sedimentary sequences, and further confirms that the stratigraphic position of the MBB could spatially vary to a certain extent due to regional sedimentary or paleoclimatic conditions in the marginal areas of the CLP. In the Yushan section, the high-frequency variations of paleomagnetic directions during a long period of ~31 ka before the MBB, however, could not be attributed to a genuine response to the true geomagnetic behaviour. Moreover, the climate offset defined by the magnetic susceptibility and median grain size of the section can be preliminarily attributed to the regional geology and paleoenvironment background. A multiproxy-based stratigraphic division is considered very necessary when paleomagnetic and climatic boundaries are defined exactly in a specific area of the southern CLP.

Description: Geodynamic models predict that rifting of thick, ancient continental lithosphere should not occur unless it is weakened by heating and magmatic intrusion. Therefore, the processes occurring along sections of the western branch of the East African Rift, where ~150 km thick, Palaeoproterozoic lithosphere is rifting with no surface expression of magmatism, are a significant challenge to understand. In an attempt to understand the apparently amagmatic extension we probed the regional uppermost mantle for signatures of thermal alteration using compressional ( Vp ) and shear ( Vs ) wave speeds derived from Pn and Sn tomography. Pervasive thermal alteration of the uppermost mantle and possibly the presence of melt can be inferred beneath the Rungwe volcanic centre, but no signatures on a similar scale were discerned beneath amagmatic portions of the western rift branch encompassing the southern half of the Lake Tanganyika rift and much of the Rukwa rift. In this region, Vp and Vs wave speeds indicate little, if any, heating of the uppermost mantle and no studies have reported dyking. Vp / Vs ratios are consistent with typical, melt-free, olivine-dominated upper mantle. Although our resolution limit precludes us from imaging potential localised magmatic intrusions with dimensions of tens of kilometres, the absence of surface volcanism, the amagmatic upper crustal rupture known to have occurred at disparate locations on the western branch, the presence of lower crustal seismicity and the low temperatures implied by the fast seismic wave speeds in the lower crust and uppermost mantle in this region suggests possible amagmatic extension. Most dynamic models predict that this should not happen. Indeed even with magmatic intrusion, rifting of continental lithosphere 〉100 km thick is considered improbable under conditions found on Earth. Yield strength envelopes confirm that currently modelled stresses are insufficient to produce the observed deformation along these portions of the rift system. Stresses arising from the gravitational force related to the uplift of the East African Plateau provide only one-eighth of the minimum stress necessary to produce observed lower crustal earthquakes in the western branch. We expect that some of this disparity may be accounted for by considering smaller scale bending stresses and dynamic feedbacks between brittle and elastic deformation and between faulting, topography and weathering that are not currently included in models of the East African Rift.

Description: We study rotating thermal convection in spherical shells as prototype for flow in the cores of terrestrial planets, gas planets or in stars. We base our analysis on a set of about 450 direct numerical simulations of the (magneto)hydrodynamic equations under the Boussinesq approximation. The Ekman number ranges from 10 –3 to 10 –5 . The supercriticality of the convection reaches about 1000 in some models. Four sets of simulations are considered: non-magnetic simulations and dynamo simulations with either free-slip or no-slip flow boundary conditions. The non-magnetic setup with free-slip boundaries generates the strongest zonal flows. Both non-magnetic simulations with no-slip flow boundary conditions and self-consistent dynamos with free-slip boundaries have drastically reduced zonal-flows. Suppression of shear leads to a substantial gain in heat-transfer efficiency, increasing by a factor of 3 in some cases. Such efficiency enhancement occurs as long as the convection is significantly influenced by rotation. At higher convective driving the heat-transfer efficiency tends towards that of the classical non-rotating Rayleigh–Bénard system. Analysis of the latitudinal distribution of heat flow at the outer boundary reveals that the shear is most effective at suppressing heat-transfer in the equatorial regions. Simulations with convection zones of different thickness show that the zonal flows become less energetic in thicker shells, and, therefore, their effect on heat-transfer efficiency decreases. Furthermore, we explore the influence of the magnetic field on the non-zonal flow components of the convection. For this we compare the heat-transfer efficiency of no-slip non-magnetic cases with that of the no-slip dynamo simulations. We find that at E = 10 –5 magnetic field significantly affects the convection and a maximum gain of about 30 per cent (as compared to the non-magnetic case) in heat-transfer efficiency is obtained for an Elsasser number of about 3. Our analysis motivates us to speculate that convection in the polar regions in dynamos at E = 10 –5 is probably in a ‘magnetostrophic’ regime.

Description: ‘Anomalous’ magnetic fabrics in dikes that appear to indicate flow into the wall confound many workers. Here, we present extensive magnetic data on five dikes from Tenerife, Canary Islands, and use these to interpret the causes of the anomalous fabrics. Comparison of the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) and anhysteretic magnetization (AARM) results show that, in some cases, the anomalous fabrics are caused by single-domain grains, which produce AMS fabrics perpendicular to the grain elongation, whereas AARM fabrics are parallel. To check this, hysteresis experiments were used to characterize the domain state. These show most are mixtures of pseudo-single-domain or single-domain plus multi-domain particles, but many have wasp-waisted hysteresis loops, likely indicating mixed populations of stable single-domain and superparamagnetic grains. First-order reversal curves were used to better characterize this and show mixtures of stable single-domain and superparamagnetic grains dominate the magnetic signal. Magnetic particles at the stable single-domain/superparamagnetic threshold are unstable at timespans relevant to the analytical techniques, so they produce complicated results. This suggests that anomalous AMS fabrics in dikes cannot simply be attributed to elongated stable single-domain particles and that mixtures of the different grain types can produce hybrid fabrics, in which the fabrics are neither perpendicular or parallel to the dike plane, that are difficult to interpret without extensive magnetic analysis.

Description: A Neogene magmatic reactivation of the Manihiki Plateau, a large igneous province (LIP) in the central Pacific, is studied using seismic reflection data. Igneous diapirs have been identified exclusively within a narrow WNW–ESE striking corridor in the southern High Plateau (HP), which is parallel to the Neogene Pacific Plate motion and overlaps with an extrapolation of the Society Islands Hotspot (SIH) path. The igneous diapirs are characterized by a narrow width (〉5 km), penetration of the Neogene sediments, and they become progressively younger towards the East (23–10 Ma). The magmatic source appears to be of small lateral extent, which leads to the conclusion that the diapirs represent Neogene hotspot volcanism within a LIP, and thus may be an older, previously unknown extension of the SIH track (〉4.5 Ma). Comparing hotspot volcanism within oceanic and continental lithosphere, we further conclude that hotspot volcanism within LIP crust has similarities to tectonically faulted continental crust.

Description: We derive scaling relationships for planetary dynamos based on a balance between energy production and Joule dissipation, and between the curl of the buoyancy and Coriolis forces. These scaling relationships are deduced for the particular case of dynamos driven by helical waves, but are shown to have a much broader applicability. They are consistent with the evidence of the numerical dynamos, yielding predictions consistent with published empirical scaling laws and also with the observed transition from dipolar to multipolar dynamos. A direct comparison with the observational evidence for the planets is hampered by the fact that we do not know what sets the smallest scale of the motion in the planets. Nevertheless, we use our scaling relationships to show that the traditional assumption that the Elsasser number is of order unity is inconsistent with the observation that the gas-giant dynamos are dipolar dynamos, as is the more recent suggestion that the strength of the dipole is independent of rotation rate and controlled by the buoyancy flux alone. On the other hand, we show that the observational data is consistent with the hypothesis that a dipolar dynamo saturates at the lowest permissible magnetic energy compatible with a given buoyancy flux.

Description: Many mechanisms control the state of stress within Earth plates. First-order well-known mechanisms include stresses induced by lateral variations of lithospheric density structure, sublithospheric tractions, ridge push and subduction pull. In this study, we attempt to quantify the influence of these mechanisms to understand the origin of stresses in the lithosphere, choosing the African plate (TAP) as an example. A finite-element based suite, Proshell, was developed to combine several data sets, to estimate the gravitational potential energy (GPE) of the lithosphere and to calculate stresses acting on the real (non-planar) geometry of TAP. We introduce several quantitative parameters to measure the degree of fit between the model and observations. Our modelling strategy involves nine series of numerical experiments. We start with the simplest possible model and then, step by step, build it up to be a more physically realistic model, all the while discussing the influence of each additional component. The starting (oversimplified) model series (1) is based on the CRUST2 data set for the crust and a half-space-cooling approximation of the lithospheric mantle. We then describe models (series 2–5) that account for lithospheric mantle density heterogeneities to build a more reliable GPE model. The consecutive series involve basal traction from the convective mantle (series A, C) and the rheological heterogeneity of the TAP via variations in its effective elastic thickness (series B, C). The model quality reflects the increase in complexity between series with an improving match to observed stress regimes and directions. The most complex model (series D) also accounts for the bending stresses in the elastic lithosphere and achieves a remarkably good fit to observations. All of our experiments were based on the iteration of controlling parameters in order to achieve the best fit between modelled and observed stresses, always considering physically feasible values. This gives us confidence that our methodology appropriately models the stress pattern of Africa, and that it may be further applied to other plates on Earth. Our modelling approach allows us to quantify several important features controlling the lithospheric stress pattern. Even though the initial oversimplified model does not fit the observations satisfactorily, it shows how ridge push may create significant compressive stresses in the lithosphere. More complex models show the importance of the density structure of the lithosphere, specifically in the subcrustal lithosphere. The stress regime within the TAP mainly results from a global balance of masses and mass moments between continental and oceanic parts of the plate. The orientation of stresses, in turn, is influenced more by local features expressed by topographic and crustal density variations, whereas existent subcrustal density variations appear to be smoothed by the crust above. The models show that accounting separately for either basal tractions or rheological heterogeneities brings moderate improvement, but the combination of these two mechanisms results in a substantially better match between model and observations. The bending stresses caused by isostatical re-adjustment improve the model match, but they have to be analysed with caution because of their depth-dependent nature.

Description: The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden represent two young basins that formed between Africa and Arabia since the early Oligocene, floored by oceanic crust or by transitional and thinned continental crust. While in the easternmost Gulf of Aden, the rift–drift transition can be dated chron C6 (~20.1 Ma), here we show that in the Red Sea the first pulse of seafloor spreading occurred during chron C3n.2n (~4.6 Ma) around ~17.1°N (present-day coordinates) and propagated southwards from this location, separating the Danakil microplate from Arabia. It is also shown that seafloor spreading between Arabia and Nubia started later, around chron 2A (~2.58 Ma), and propagated northwards. At present, there is no magnetic evidence for the existence of a linear spreading centre in the northern Red Sea at latitudes higher than ~24°N and in the southern Red Sea below ~14.8°N. The present-day plate kinematics of this region can be described with high accuracy by a network of five interacting plates (Nubia, Arabia, Somalia, Sinai and Danakil) and six triple junctions. For times older than anomaly 2A (~2.58 Ma) and up to anomaly 3, the absence of marine magnetic anomalies between Arabia and Nubia prevents a rigorous kinematic description of the five-plates system. However, there is strong evidence that the unique changes in plate motions during the last 5 Myr were a dramatic slowdown at chron C2 (~1.77 Ma) in the spreading or extension rates along the ridge and rift axes, thereby a good representation of the real plate motions can be obtained anyway by backward extension of the oldest Arabia–Nubia and Arabia–Danakil stage rotations determined on the basis of marine magnetic anomalies, respectively, C2–C2A and C2A–C3. The proposed kinematic reconstructions are accompanied by a geodynamic explanation for the genesis of large continent–continent fracture zones at the rift–drift transition and by an analysis of the strain associated with plate motions in Afar, northeastern Egypt and Sinai.

Description: On 2016 February 6 the South Taiwan earthquake ( M w 6.4) occurred in the Meinong District of Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan, at a depth of 17 km. It caused 117 fatalities and widespread damage to infrastructures, especially in the Tainan city. To clarify the generating mechanism of this damaging earthquake, we determined high-resolution 3-D images of P - and S -wave velocity ( V P , V S ) and Poisson's ratio ( ) in the epicentral area. We used 105 712 P - and 61 250 S -wave arrival times of 8279 local earthquakes (1.5 ≤ M ≤ 6.4) recorded at 41 seismic stations in South Taiwan during 2000–2011. In the upper crust (depth ≤ 10 km), the most remarkable feature is low- V P , low- V S and high- anomalies in areas with known active faults in the southwestern and easternmost parts of Taiwan. In contrast, high- V P , high- V S and low- anomalies become dominant in the lower crust. The hypocentre of the 2016 South Taiwan earthquake is located in a boundary zone where seismic velocity and Poisson's ratio change drastically in both the horizontal and vertical directions. Furthermore, the hypocentre is underlain by a vertically elongated high- anomaly at depths of 23–40 km, which may reflect ascending fluids from the upper (or uppermost) mantle. The low- V and high- anomalies in the upper crust coincide with areas of low heat flow, negative Bouguer gravity anomaly, and low magnetotelluric resistivity, which may reflect crustal fluids contained in the young fold-and-thrust belt. These results suggest that the 2016 South Taiwan earthquake was triggered by ascending fluids from dehydration of the subducting Eurasian slab, invading into active faults with a high loading rate.

Description: We present a detailed palaeomagnetic study from 35 sites on Holocene lava flows of the Tongariro Volcanic Centre, central North Island, New Zealand. Prior to the study the eruption ages of these flows were constrained to within a few thousand years by recently published high-precision 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronological data and tephrostratigraphic controls. Correlation of flow mean palaeomagnetic directions with a recently published continuous sediment record from Lake Mavora, Fiordland, allows us to reduce the age uncertainty to 300–500 yr in some cases. Our refined ages significantly improve the chronology of Holocene effusive eruptions of the volcanoes of the Tongariro Volcanic Centre. For instance, differences in the palaeomagnetic directions recorded by lavas from the voluminous Iwikau and Rangataua members suggest that individual effusive periods lasted up to thousands of years and that these bursts have been irregularly spaced over time. While over the last few millennia the effusive eruptive activity from Mt Ruapehu has been relatively quiet, the very young age (200–500 BP) of a Red Crater sourced flow suggests that effusive activity around Mt Tongariro lasted into the past few centuries. This adds an important hazard context to the historical record, which has otherwise comprised frequent relatively small, tephra producing, explosive eruptions without the production of lava flows.

Description: If agricultural subsidies are largely capitalized into farmland values through their effect on rental rates, then expanding support for agriculture may not benefit farmers who rent the land they farm. Existing evidence on the incidence of subsidies on cash rental rates is mixed. Identification is obscured by unobserved or imprecisely measured factors that tend to be correlated with subsidies, especially land quality and time-varying factors like commodity prices and adverse weather events. A problem that has received less attention is the fact that subsidies and land quality on rented land may differ from owned land. Since most farms possess both rented and owned acreage, farm-level measures of subsidies, land values, and rental rates may bias estimated incidence. Using a new, field-level data set that, for the first time, precisely links subsidies to land parcels, we show that this bias is considerable: where farm-level estimates suggest an incidence of 42–49 cents of the marginal subsidy dollar, field-level estimates from the same farms indicate that landlords capture just 20–28 cents. The size of the farm and the duration of the rental arrangement have substantial effects. Incidence falls by 5–15 cents when doubling total operated acres, and the incidence falls by 0.1–0.8 cents with each additional year of the rental arrangement. Low incidence of subsidies on rents combined with the farm-size and duration effects suggest that farmers renting land have monopsony power.

Description: The inversion of magnetotelluric data into subsurface electrical conductivity poses an ill-posed problem. Smoothing constraints are widely employed to estimate a regularized solution. Here, we present an alternative inversion scheme that estimates a sparse representation of the model in a wavelet basis. The objective of the inversion is to determine the few non-zero wavelet coefficients which are required to fit the data. This approach falls into the class of sparsity constrained inversion schemes and minimizes the combination of the data misfit in a least-squares 2 sense and of a model coefficient norm in an 1 sense ( 2 - 1 minimization). The 1 coefficient norm renders the solution sparse in a suitable representation such as the multiresolution wavelet basis, but does not impose explicit structural penalties on the model as it is the case for 2 regularization. The presented numerical algorithm solves the mixed 2 - 1 norm minimization problem for the nonlinear magnetotelluric inverse problem. We demonstrate the feasibility of our algorithm on synthetic 2-D MT data as well as on a real data example. We found that sparse models can be estimated by inversion and that the spatial distribution of non-vanishing coefficients indicates regions in the model which are resolved.

Description: The Zambales Ophiolite Complex (ZOC) in the western portion of Luzon Island, Philippines represents a typical exposure of an emplaced crust-upper mantle section of an ancient lithosphere. The ZOC is divided into the Acoje and Coto Blocks based on petrological, geochemical and age disparities, thus implying diverse and complex origins for the archipelago's lithospheric sources. We used gravity and magnetic data to reveal differences in the subsurface characteristics of the two ophiolite blocks for the first time. Low Bouguer gravity (〈135 mGal) and magnetic (〈69 nT) anomalies characterize the ophiolitic units in the Acoje Block whereas high Bouguer gravity (〉150 mGal) and magnetic (〉110 nT) anomalies typify the Coto Block. Such contrasting signatures further extend at greater depths which reflect the disparities in the crustal density, the basement structure, and the depth to Moho. Petrophysical characteristics such as density, magnetic susceptibility and natural remanent magnetization (NRM) intensities correlate well with the interpreted Bouguer gravity and magnetic anomalies. Densities of gabbros and peridotites from the Acoje and Coto Blocks reveal mean values ranging from 2640 to 2810 kg m –3 and 2570 to 2690 kg m –3 , respectively. Magnetic susceptibility (〉4.43 x 10 –3 SI) and NRM (〉0.69 A m –1 ) data are also generally higher over the Coto Block. Both Bouguer gravity and magnetic anomaly maps reveal a prominent steep gradient that potentially marks the structural contact between Acoje and Coto Blocks. We further infer that the steep anomaly gradient validates the presence of the Lawis Fault Zone which separates the two ophiolite blocks in the Masinloc Massif. Recent field evidence from rock exposures in Coto reveals both right lateral and vertical displacements along the fault zone.

Description: In this work, we analyse in detail how a large earthquake could cause stress changes on volcano plumbing systems and produce possible positive feedbacks in promoting new eruptions. We develop a sensitivity analysis that considers several possible parameters, providing also new constraints on the methodological approach. The work is focus on the M w 8.8 2010 earthquake that occurred along the Chile subduction zone near 24 historic/Holocene volcanoes, located in the Southern Volcanic Zone. We use six different finite fault-slip models to calculate the static stress change, induced by the coseismic slip, in a direction normal to several theoretical feeder dykes with various orientations. Results indicate different magnitudes of stress change due to the heterogeneity of magma pathway geometry and orientation. In particular, the N–S and NE–SW-striking magma pathways suffer a decrease in stress normal to the feeder dyke (unclamping, up to 0.85 MPa) in comparison to those striking NW–SE and E–W, and in some cases there is even a clamping effect depending on the magma path strike. The diverse fault-slip models have also an effect (up to 0.4 MPa) on the results. As a consequence, we reconstruct the geometry and orientation of the most reliable magma pathways below the 24 volcanoes by studying structural and morphometric data, and we resolve the stress changes on each of them. Results indicate that: (i) volcanoes where post-earthquake eruptions took place experienced earthquake-induced unclamping or very small clamping effects, (ii) several volcanoes that did not erupt yet are more prone to experience future unrest, from the point of view of the host rock stress state, because of earthquake-induced unclamping. Our findings also suggest that pathway orientation plays a more relevant role in inducing stress changes, whereas the depth of calculation (e.g. 2, 5 or 10 km) used in the analysis, is not key a parameter. Earthquake-induced magma-pathway unclamping might contribute to promote new eruptions at volcanoes as far as 450 km from the epicentre.

Description: We examined the mathematical and computational aspects of the magnetic potential, vector and gradient tensor fields of a tesseroid in a geocentric spherical coordinate system (SCS). This work is relevant for 3-D modelling that is performed with lithospheric vertical scales and global, continent or large regional horizontal scales. The curvature of the Earth is significant at these scales and hence, a SCS is more appropriate than the usual Cartesian coordinate system (CCS). The 3-D arrays of spherical prisms (SP; ‘tesseroids’) can be used to model the response of volumes with variable magnetic properties. Analytical solutions do not exist for these model elements and numerical or mixed numerical and analytical solutions must be employed. We compared various methods for calculating the response in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. The methods were (1) the spherical coordinate magnetic dipole method (MD), (2) variants of the 3-D Gauss–Legendre quadrature integration method (3-D GLQI) with (i) different numbers of nodes in each of the three directions, and (ii) models where we subdivided each SP into a number of smaller tesseroid volume elements, (3) a procedure that we term revised Gauss–Legendre quadrature integration (3-D RGLQI) where the magnetization direction which is constant in a SCS is assumed to be constant in a CCS and equal to the direction at the geometric centre of each tesseroid, (4) the Taylor's series expansion method (TSE) and (5) the rectangular prism method (RP). In any realistic application, both the accuracy and the computational efficiency factors must be considered to determine the optimum approach to employ. In all instances, accuracy improves with increasing distance from the source. It is higher in the percentage terms for potential than the vector or tensor response. The tensor errors are the largest, but they decrease more quickly with distance from the source. In our comparisons of relative computational efficiency, we found that the magnetic potential takes less time to compute than the vector response, which in turn takes less time to compute than the tensor gradient response. The MD method takes less time to compute than either the TSE or RP methods. The efficiency of the (GLQI and) RGLQI methods depends on the polynomial order, but the response typically takes longer to compute than it does for the other methods. The optimum method is a complex function of the desired accuracy, the size of the volume elements, the element latitude and the distance between the source and the observation. For a model of global extent with typical model element size (e.g. 1 degree horizontally and 10 km radially) and observations at altitudes of 10s to 100s of km, a mixture of methods based on the horizontal separation of the source and observation separation would be the optimum approach. To demonstrate the RGLQI method described within this paper, we applied it to the computation of the response for a global magnetization model for observations at 300 and 30 km altitude.

Description: Kamacite particles (Fe–Ni, Ni 〈 5 per cent), are very common in extra-terrestrial materials, such as meteorites. It is normally assumed that for kamacite particles to be reliable recorders of magnetic fields, they need to be magnetically uniform (single domain, SD) and thermally stable. Larger particles subdivide into non-uniform multidomain (MD) magnetic structures that produce weaker magnetic signals, while small SD particles become magnetically unstable due to thermal fluctuations and exhibit superparamagnetic behaviour. In this paper we determine the first micromagnetic calculation of the stable SD range domain-state phase diagram for metallic iron; previous calculations were analytical. There is a significant increase in the critical size for the SD/MD threshold size, for example, for cube-shaped iron particles, the critical SD/MD threshold has now been estimated to be 25 nm, compared to 17 nm for previous estimates. The larger critical SD/MD threshold size for iron, agrees better with previously published nanometric observations of domain state for FeNi particles, then early analytical models.

Description: Seismic studies indicate that the Earth's inner core has a complex structure and exhibits a strong elastic anisotropy with a cylindrical symmetry. Among the various models which have been proposed to explain this anisotropy, one class of models considers the effect of the Lorentz force associated with the magnetic field diffused within the inner core. In this paper, we extend previous studies and use analytical calculations and numerical simulations to predict the geometry and strength of the flow induced by the poloidal component of the Lorentz force in a neutrally or stably stratified growing inner core, exploring also the effect of different types of boundary conditions at the inner core boundary (ICB). Unlike previous studies, we show that the boundary condition that is most likely to produce a significant deformation and seismic anisotropy is impermeable, with negligible radial flow through the boundary. Exact analytical solutions are found in the case of a negligible effect of buoyancy forces in the inner core (neutral stratification), while numerical simulations are used to investigate the case of stable stratification. In this situation, the flow induced by the Lorentz force is found to be localized in a shear layer below the ICB, whose thickness depends on the strength of the stratification, but not on the magnetic field strength. We obtain scaling laws for the thickness of this layer, as well as for the flow velocity and strain rate in this shear layer as a function of the control parameters, which include the magnitude of the magnetic field, the strength of the density stratification, the viscosity of the inner core and the growth rate of the inner core. We find that the resulting strain rate is probably too small to produce significant texturing unless the inner core viscosity is smaller than about 10 12 Pa s.

Description: We review evidence regarding the size and evolution of the "land rush" in the wake of the 2007–8 boom in agricultural commodity prices, and we study the determinants of foreign land acquisition for large-scale agricultural investment. The use of data on bilateral investment relationships to estimate gravity models of transnational land-intensive investments confirms the central role of agro-ecological potential as a pull factor. However, this finding contrasts the standard literature insofar as the quality of the destination country's business climate is insignificant, and weak tenure security is associated with increased interest for investors to acquire land in the country. Policy implications are discussed.

Description: This paper presents a distributed magnetotelluric inversion scheme based on adaptive finite-element method (FEM). The key novel aspect of the introduced algorithm is the use of automatic mesh refinement techniques for both forward and inverse modelling. These techniques alleviate tedious and subjective procedure of choosing a suitable model parametrization. To avoid overparametrization, meshes for forward and inverse problems were decoupled. For calculation of accurate electromagnetic (EM) responses, automatic mesh refinement algorithm based on a goal-oriented error estimator has been adopted. For further efficiency gain, EM fields for each frequency were calculated using independent meshes in order to account for substantially different spatial behaviour of the fields over a wide range of frequencies. An automatic approach for efficient initial mesh design in inverse problems based on linearized model resolution matrix was developed. To make this algorithm suitable for large-scale problems, it was proposed to use a low-rank approximation of the linearized model resolution matrix. In order to fill a gap between initial and true model complexities and resolve emerging 3-D structures better, an algorithm for adaptive inverse mesh refinement was derived. Within this algorithm, spatial variations of the imaged parameter are calculated and mesh is refined in the neighborhoods of points with the largest variations. A series of numerical tests were performed to demonstrate the utility of the presented algorithms. Adaptive mesh refinement based on the model resolution estimates provides an efficient tool to derive initial meshes which account for arbitrary survey layouts, data types, frequency content and measurement uncertainties. Furthermore, the algorithm is capable to deliver meshes suitable to resolve features on multiple scales while keeping number of unknowns low. However, such meshes exhibit dependency on an initial model guess. Additionally, it is demonstrated that the adaptive mesh refinement can be particularly efficient in resolving complex shapes. The implemented inversion scheme was able to resolve a hemisphere object with sufficient resolution starting from a coarse discretization and refining mesh adaptively in a fully automatic process. The code is able to harness the computational power of modern distributed platforms and is shown to work with models consisting of millions of degrees of freedom. Significant computational savings were achieved by using locally refined decoupled meshes.

Description: We analyse Bouguer anomaly data and previously published Moho depths estimated from receiver functions in order to determine the amount of isostatic compensation or uncompensation of the Rif topography in northern Morocco. We use Moho depth variations extracted from receiver function analyses to predict synthetic Bouguer anomalies that are then compared to observed Bouguer anomaly. We find that Moho depth variations due to isostatic compensation of topographic and/or intracrustal loads do not match Moho depth estimates obtained from receiver function analyses. The isostatic misfit map evidences excess crustal root as large as 10 km in the western part of the study area, whereas a ‘missing’ crustal root of ~5 km appears east of 4.3°E. This excess root/missing topography correlates with the presence of a dense mantle lid, the noticeable southwestward drift of the Western Rif area, and with a current surface uplift. We propose that a delaminated mantle lid progressively detaching westward or southwestward from the overlying crust is responsible for viscous flow of the ductile lower crust beneath the Rif area. This gives rise to isostatic uplift and westward drift due to viscous coupling at the upper/lower crust boundary. At the same time, the presence of this dense sinking mantle lid causes a negative dynamic topography, which explains why the observed topography is too low compared to the crustal thickness.

Description: Flow-like landslides are rapidly moving fluid–solid mixtures that can cause significant destruction along paths that run far from their original sources. Existing models for run out prediction and motion simulation of flow-like landslides have many limitations. In this paper, we develop a new method named ‘Tsunami Squares’ to simulate the generation, propagation and stoppage of flow-like landslides based on conservation of volume and momentum. Landslide materials in the new method form divisible squares that are displaced, then further fractured. The squares move under the influence of gravity-driven acceleration and suffer decelerations due to basal and dynamic frictions. Distinctively, this method takes into account solid and fluid mechanics, particle interactions and flow regime transitions. We apply this approach to simulate the 1982 El Picacho landslide in San Salvador, capital city of El Salvador. Landslide products from Tsunami Squares such as run out distance, velocities, erosion and deposition depths and impacted area agree well with field investigated and eyewitness data.

Description: Numerous regional plate reorganizations and the coeval ages of the Hawaiian Emperor bend (HEB) and Louisville bend of 50–47 Ma have been interpreted as a possible global tectonic plate reorganization at ~chron 21 (47.9 Ma). Yet for a truly global event we would expect a contemporaneous change in Africa absolute plate motion (APM) reflected by physical evidence distributed on the Africa Plate. This evidence has been postulated to take the form of the Réunion-Mascarene bend which exhibits many HEB-like features, such as a large angular change close to ~chron 21. However, the Réunion hotspot trail has recently been interpreted as a sequence of continental fragments with incidental hotspot volcanism. Here we show that the alternative Réunion-Mascarene Plateau trail can also satisfy the age progressions and geometry of other hotspot trails on the Africa Plate. The implied motion, suggesting a pivoting of Africa from 67 to 50 Ma, could explain the apparent bifurcation of the Tristan hotspot chain, the age reversals seen along the Walvis Ridge, the sharp curve of the Canary trail, and the diffuse nature of the St. Helena chain. To test this hypothesis further we made a new Africa APM model that extends back to ~80 Ma using a modified version of the Hybrid Polygonal Finite Rotation Method. This method uses seamount chains and their associated hotspots as geometric constraints for the model, and seamount age dates to determine APM through time. While this model successfully explains many of the volcanic features, it implies an unrealistically fast global lithospheric net rotation, as well as improbable APM trajectories for many other plates, including the Americas, Eurasia and Australia. We contrast this speculative model with a more conventional model in which the Mascarene Plateau is excluded in favour of the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge rotated into the Africa reference frame. This second model implies more realistic net lithospheric rotation and far-field APMs, but fails to explain key details of the Atlantic Ocean volcanic chains. Both models predict a Canary plume influence beneath the Madeiras. Neither model, when projected via the global plate circuit into the Pacific, predicts any significant change in plate motion around chron 21. Consequently, Africa APM models do not appear to provide independent support for a chron 21 global reorganization.

Description: The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) starts to branch off in the western Bolu plain. The branches of the NAFZ in this location create the Almacık block which is surrounded by the latest surface ruptures of significant earthquakes that occurred between 1944 and 1999, but its northeastern part remains unruptured. The most recently formed rupture, that was a result of the 1999 November 12 Düzce earthquake, ended to the northwest of the Bakacak Fault. The connection between the Bakacak Fault and the main branch of the NAFZ via the Bolu plain has until now remained unknown. This paper establishes that the route of the missing link runs through the Dağkent, Kasaplar and Bürnük faults, a finding achieved with the help of seismic reflection studies. The paper also argues that the cross cutting nature of these newly determined faults and a stress analysis based on focal mechanism solutions of recent earthquakes demonstrate the termination of the suggested pull-apart nature of the Bolu plain.

Description: Increasing aridity, more frequent and intense drought, and greater degrees of water scarcity create unique challenges for agriculture. In response to these challenges, which often manifest themselves as lower and more variable surface water supplies, as well as depleted and degraded ground water supplies, growers tend to seek opportunities to adapt. One option for growers to reduce their exposure to water scarcity and heightened uncertainty is to diversify. Indeed, access to a portfolio of supplies is one way in which water and irrigation districts, as well as individual growers, are responding to the changing landscape of water resource availability. This article evaluates the benefits to irrigated agriculture from having access to multiple sources of water. With farm-level information on 1,900 agricultural parcels across California, we use the hedonic property value method to investigate the extent that growers benefit from having access to multiple sources of water (i.e., a water portfolio). Our results suggest that while lower quality waters, less reliable water, and less water all negatively impact agricultural land values, holding a water portfolio has a positive impact on land values through its role in mitigating the negative aspects of these factors and reducing the sensitivity of agriculture to climate-related factors. From a policy perspective, such results identify a valuable adaptation tool that irrigation districts may consider to help offset the negative impacts of climate change, drought, and population increases on water supply availability and reliability.

Description: A spatially averaged mean-field model for fully or partially ordered members of the ilmenite–hematite solid solution series is rigorously derived from the Heisenberg Hamiltonian by first assuming no temporal correlation of atomic spins, and then by spatially averaging over spins at equivalent atomic positions. The model is based on the geometry of exchange interactions between nearest and next-nearest neighbours and predicts magnetization curves in homogenous solid solutions with variable degree of order. While the general framework presented can also be applied to atomic scale models, and to other solid solution series, here the symmetries of the ilmenite–hematite lattice are exploited to show that four different sublattice magnetizations and six independent combinations of exchange constants determine the temperature variation of the magnetization curves. Comparing measured Curie temperatures T C and M s ( T ) curves to model predictions results in accurate constraints for these combinations. It is also possible to calculate predictions for high-field magnetization slopes HF , which not only improve accurate experimental determination of the Curie temperature but also provide a new magnetic method to estimate the order parameter for ilmenite–hematite solid solution samples.