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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
  • Wiley-Blackwell  (10)
  • Wiley
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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-24
    Beschreibung: This article focuses on the Montello thrust system in the Eastern Southern Alps as a potential seismogenic source. This system is of particular interest because of its lack of historical seismicity. Nevertheless, the system is undergoing active deformation. We developed a finite-element model using visco-elasto-plastic rheology. The free parameters of the model (essentially, the locking status of the three thrusts included in the study), were constrained by matching the observed horizontal GPS and vertical levelling data. We show that the amount of interseismic fault locking, and thus the seismic potential, is not necessarily associated with the fastest-slipping faults. More specifically, the locked Bassano thrust has a greater seismic potential than the freely slipping Montello thrust. The findings suggest that faults with subtle evidence of Quaternary activity should be carefully considered when creating seismic hazard maps.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 221-227
    Beschreibung: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Beschreibung: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: open
    Schlagwort(e): interseismic deformation ; Montello thrust ; Southern Alps ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-06-22
    Beschreibung: Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision-making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first-excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance-based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post-mainshock environment. A time-dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event-dependent fragility curves as a function of the first-mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back-to-back non- linear dynamic analyses. An epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio-temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event-dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first-excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the num- ber of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L’Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three-story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first-excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 2179–2197
    Beschreibung: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: reserved
    Schlagwort(e): aftershock ; time-dependent reliability ; seismic risk ; etas modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-03-18
    Beschreibung: This article presents an integrated approach for the probabilistic systemic risk analysis of a road network considering spatial seismic hazard with correlation of ground motion intensities, vulnerability of the network components, and the effect of interactions within the network, as well as, between roadway components and built environment to the network functionality. The system performance is evaluated at the system level through a global connectivity performance indicator, which depends on both physical damages to its components and induced functionality losses due to interactions with other systems. An object-oriented modeling paradigm is used, where the complex problem of several interacting systems is decomposed in a number of interacting objects, accounting for intra- and interdependencies between and within systems. Each system is specified with its components, solving algorithms, performance indicators and interactions with other systems. The proposed approach is implemented for the analysis of the road network in the city of Thessaloniki (Greece) to demonstrate its applicability. In particular, the risk for the road network in the area is calculated, specifically focusing on the short-term impact of seismic events (just after the earthquake). The potential of road blockages due to collapses of adjacent buildings and overpass bridges is analyzed, trying to individuate possible criticalities related to specific components/subsystems. The application can be extended based on the proposed approach, to account for other interactions such as failure of pipelines beneath the road segments, collapse of adjacent electric poles, or malfunction of lighting and signaling systems due to damage in the electric power network.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 524–540
    Beschreibung: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Systemic vulnerability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-12-15
    Beschreibung: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE’s area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model’s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Beschreibung: EC-Research FP7-projects, SHARE, under grant agreement No. 226967 and NERA, under grant agreement No. 262330
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 1159-1172
    Beschreibung: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Beschreibung: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Probabilistic forecasting ; Statistical seismology ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-02-24
    Beschreibung: Integration of geologic, geomorphologic and seismologic data sets is used to reconstruct the recent tectonic evolution and active deformation pattern in the Val d’Agri area, located in the seismically active axial sector of the Southern Apennines (Italy). The western portion of the Apennines thrust belt has been affected by Pliocene–Quaternary extension during easterly roll-back and crustal delamination of the Adriatic slab. The bulk of Quaternary extension has been accommodated bySW-dipping oblique and normal faults,which have attained mature morphologic and structural features and, nowadays, separate mountain ranges from intermontane basins. However, in the present seismogenic belt, coseismic faulting locally occurs on NE-dipping structures, which might cut the inherited Pleistocene landscape. In theVal d’Agri basin, in spite of the large Early–Middle Pleistocene, displacement occurred on SW-dipping faults bordering its eastern flank, our investigations show that the recent basin evolution has been controlled by a NE-dipping fault system (Monti della Maddalena fault system, MMFS). This fault system cuts across the Monti della Maddalena range, west of the Agri valley and has not yet created an evident tectonic landscape. Notwithstanding, fault motion since the Middle Pleistocene might explain geomorphologic and hydrographic anomalies of the Agri river and its valley, where fault-controlled subsidence has captured the river course and produced an aggrading plain within a regional uplift context. Recent and ongoing motion is documented by fault scarplets in loose deposits, 14C ages of palaeosols and the spatial relation with low to moderate instrumental seismicity. Results from fault kinematic analysis are compatible with fault-plane solutions of local and regional seismic events, and indicate ∼NE–SW oriented extension. Recognition of the MMFS as a potential seismogenic fault increases the longitudinal extent of the NE-dipping, morphologically immature seismic sources in the Southern Apennines and argues against the range-bounding fault model for active extension in the region. The regional size of the NE-dipping seismogenic belt may result from impingement of a mantle wedge beneath the Apenninic chain and possibly track the external front of crustal delamination.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 591-609
    Beschreibung: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: reserved
    Schlagwort(e): active tectonics ; crustal deformation ; earthquakes ; geomorphology ; normal faulting ; Southern Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: Rapid extension and active normal faulting in the western extremity of the Corinth Gulf are accompanied by fast coastal uplift.We investigate Pleistocene uplift west of Aigion, by attempting to date remains of marine terraces and sedimentary sequences by calcareous nannoplankton and U-series analyses. Net uplift initiated recently, due to abandonment of an older rift-bounding fault zone and increase in activity on the presently active, coastal fault zone. This change apparently coincides with an abrupt slow down (or, termination) of secondary fault block tilting within the broader hangingwall block of the older zone, indicated by an angular unconformity that dates in the early part ofMIS10 ( 390–350 ka BP, preferably, in the earlier part of this period). Net uplift driven by the coastal zone resulted in the formation of MIS9c (330 ka) and younger terraces. The formation of the unconformity and the initiation of net uplift coincide temporally with a 300–400 ka unconformity recognized by recent studies in a wide area offshore Aigion i.e. they could be part of an evolutionary event that affected the entirewestern part of the Corinth Rift or, a large area therein. Uplift rate estimates at four locations are discussed with reference to the morphotectonic context of differential uplift of secondary fault blocks, and the context of possible increase in uplift ratewith time. Themost reliable and most useful estimate for uplift rate at the longitude of the studied transect is 1.74–1.85mm/year (time-averaged estimate for the last 240 ka, based on calcareous nannoplankton and sequence-stratigraphic interpretation)
    Beschreibung: ‘3HAZ Corinth’ E.U. research project 004043 (GOCE)-3HAZ-Corinth
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 78 - 104
    Beschreibung: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: partially_open
    Schlagwort(e): coastal uplift ; marine terraces ; marine sequences ; deformation rate ; Pleistocene ; Corinth Gulf Reef ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
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    Unbekannt
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: We propose a method to introduce a refined representation of the ground motion in the framework of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). This study is especially oriented to the incorporation of a priori information about source parameters, by focusing on the directivity effect and its influence on seismic hazard maps. Two strategies have been followed. One considers the seismic source as an extended source, and it is valid when the PSHA seismogenetic sources are represented as fault segments. We show that the incorporation of variables related to the directivity effect can lead to variations up to 30% of the hazard level, in terms of spectral acceleration response at 5 sec., exceeding probability of 10% in 50 years. The second one concerns the more general problem of the seismogenetic areas, where each point is a seismogenetic source having the same chance of enucleate a seismic event. In our proposition the point source is associated to the rupture-related parameters, defined using a statistical description. As an example, we consider a source point of an area characterized by strike slip faulting style. With the introduction of the directivity correction the modulation of the hazard map reaches values up to 100%. The introduction of directivity does not increase uniformly the hazard level, but acts more like a redistribution of the estimation that is consistent with the fault orientation. A general increase appears only when no a-priori information is available. However, nowadays good a-priori knowledge exists on style of faulting, dip and orientation of faults associated to the majority of the seismogenetic zones of the present seismic hazard maps. Following this method, all the information collected may be easily converted to obtain a more comprehensive and meaningful probabilistic Seismic Hazard formulation.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 616-626
    Beschreibung: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: reserved
    Schlagwort(e): Earthquake ground motion ; Earthquake source observation ; Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: We analyzed a broad region around L’Aquila in search of seismogenic faults similar to that responsible for the 6 April 2009 earthquake (Mw 6.3). Having the lessons learned from this earthquake in mind, we focused on adjacent areas displaying similar morphotectonic, geological and structural evidence. The basin running from Barisciano to Civitaretenga-Navelli, notably located near the southeastern edge of the 2009 aftershock pattern, appears to be one of such areas. We collected morphotectonic and structural data indicating that this basin is underlain by a major active normal fault (San Pio Fault). All the observations are very much reminiscent of the morphotectonic, geological and structural setting of area struck by the L’Aquila earthquake, suggesting that the newly identified fault has the potential for a Mw 6.2-6.4 shock.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: Pages: 108–115
    Beschreibung: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: partially_open
    Schlagwort(e): Seismotectonics ; Morphotectonics ; Active fault ; San Pio basin ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: Seismological, geological and geodetic data have been integrated to characterize the seismogenic structure of the late 2013-early 2014 moderate energy (maximum local magnitude MLmax = 4.9) seismic sequence that struck the interior of the Matese Massif, part of the Southern Apennines active extensional belt. The sequence, heralded by a ML = 2.7 foreshock, was characterized by two main shocks with ML = 4.9 and ML = 4.2, respectively, which occurred at a depth of ∼17–18 km. The sequence was confined in the 10–20 km depth range, significantly deeper than the 1997–1998 sequence which occurred few km away on the northeastern side of the massif above ∼15 km depth. The depth distribution of the 2013–14 sequence is almost continuous, albeit a deeper (16–19 km) and a shallower (11–15 km) group of events can be distinguished, the former including the main shocks and the foreshock. The epicentral distribution formed a ∼10 km long NNW–SSE trending alignment, which almost parallels the surface trace of late Pliocene–Quaternary southwest-dipping normal faults with a poor evidence of current geological and geodetic deformation. We built an upper crustal model profile for the eastern Matese massif through integration of geological data, oil exploration well logs and seismic tomographic images. Projection of hypocentres on the profile suggests that the seismogenic volume falls mostly within the crystalline crust and subordinately within the Mesozoic sedimentary cover of Apulia, the underthrust foreland of the Southern Apennines fold and thrust belt. Geological data and the regional macroseismic field of the sequence suggest that the southwest-dipping nodal plane of the main shocks represents the rupture surface that we refer to here as the Matese fault. The major lithological discontinuity between crystalline and sedimentary rocks of Apulia likely confined upward the rupture extent of the Matese fault. Repeated coseismic failure represented by the deeper group of events in the sequence, activated in a passive fashion the overlying ∼11–15 km deep section of the upper crustal normal faults. We consider the southwest-dipping Matese fault representative of a poorly known type of seismogenic structures in the Southern Apennines, where extensional seismogenesis and geodetic strain accumulation occur more frequently on NE-dipping, shallower-rooted faults. This is the case of the Boiano Basin fault located on the northern side of the massif, to which the 1997–1998 sequence is related. The close proximity of the two types of seismogenic faults at the Matese Massif is related to the complex crustal architecture generated by the Pliocene–early Pleistocene contractional and transpressional tectonics.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 823-837
    Beschreibung: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: partially_open
    Schlagwort(e): Seismicity and tectonics ; Continental tectonics: extensional ; Crustal structure ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: We reply to a comment by Messina et al., who strongly criticized our paper on the San Pio Fault, by showing that in areas of complex geology such as the central Apennines, where the current tectonic setting results from the superposition of different tectonic regimes, the equation: “most visible active fault = major seismogenic fault” can be misleading.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 421-423
    Beschreibung: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Seismotectonics ; morphotectonics ; active fault ; San Pio basin ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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