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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
  • Elsevier Science Limited  (7)
  • Wiley-Blackwell  (5)
  • Wiley
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  • 1
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    Assessment of the seismic performance of a bituminous faced rockfill dam (2015)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-04
    Description: in the attempt to codify a procedure exportable to other similar cases, a thorough investigation of the seismic performance of a bituminous concrete faced rockfill dam built in Italy in the early eighties is herein presented. The dam presents a 90 m tall embankment built in a narrow canyon and is situated in a highly seismic region. The implemented methodology encompasses the indications provided by the most recent literature to point out the problems potentially caused by earthquakes and to account for the paramount factors affecting the response of the dam. Particular attention has been paid to the concept of performance, defining its goals in accordance with the most recent standards and deriving the correspondent limit conditions from observations reported in the literature. In order to optimize the computational effort, dynamic analyses with two and three dimensional finite difference codes have been combined to study the coupled response of the embankment, rocky foundation and bituminous facing. After validating the numerical models with centrifuge tests performed on small scale models of the embankment, the performance of the dam has been investigated with reference to a number of possible scenarios focusing 28 on the amplification spectra, the deformation of the embankment and the integrity of the bituminous lining.
    Description: Published
    Description: 183–198
    Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: rockfill ; performance ; earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    A performance-based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision-making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first-excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance-based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post-mainshock environment. A time-dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event-dependent fragility curves as a function of the first-mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back-to-back non- linear dynamic analyses. An epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio-temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event-dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first-excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the num- ber of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L’Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three-story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first-excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2179–2197
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: aftershock ; time-dependent reliability ; seismic risk ; etas modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    Coseismic and post-seismic slip of the 2009 L'Aquila (central Italy) MW 6.3 earthquake and implications for seismic potential along the Campotosto fault from joint inversion of high-precision levelling, InSAR and GPS data (2014)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-07
    Description: After the April 6th 2009 MW 6.3 (ML 5.9) L'Aquila earthquake (central Italy), we re-measured more than 100 km of high-precision levelling lines in the epicentral area. The joint inversion of the levelling measurements with InSAR and GPS measurements, allowed us to derive new coseismic and post-seismic slip distributions and to de- scribe, with high resolution details on surface displacements, the activation and the slip distribution of a second- ary fault during the aftershock sequence that struck the Campotosto area (major event MW 5.2). Coseismic slip on the Paganica fault occurred on one main asperity, while the afterslip distribution shows a more complex pattern, occurring on three main patches, including both slips on the shallow portions and on the deeper parts of the rup- ture plane. The comparison between coseismic and post-seismic slip distributions strongly suggests that afterslip was triggered at the edges of the coseismic asperity. The activation of a segment of the Campotosto fault during the aftershock sequence, with a good correlation between the estimated slipping area, moment release and distribution of aftershocks, raises the opportunity to discuss the local seismic hazard following the occurrence of the 2009 L'Aquila mainshock. The Campotosto fault appears capable of generating earthquakes as large as his- torical events in the region (M N 6.5) or as small as the ones associated with the 2009 sequence. In the case that the Campotosto fault is accumulating a significant portion of the current interseismic deformation, the 2009 MW N 5 events will have released only a small amount of the accumulated elastic strain, and then a significant hazard still remains in the area. Continuing geodetic monitoring and a densification of the GPS networks in the region are therefore needed to estimate the tectonic loading across the different recognized active fault systems in this part of the Apennines.
    Description: Published
    Description: 168-185
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: High-precision leveling; InSAR; GPS; Earthquake source; Normal faulting; Seismic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.01. Continents
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    Stress releasemodel and proxy measures of earthquake size. Application to Italian seismogenic sources (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: This study presents a series of self-correcting models that are obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed, in which the evolution of the system over time is represented by the level of strain, moment, seismic energy, or energy scaled by the moment. We carry out the analysis on a regional basis by subdividing the study area into eight tectonically coherent regions. In each region, we reconstruct the seismic history and statistically evaluate the completeness of the resulting seismic catalog. Following the Bayesian paradigm, we apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain parameter estimates and a measure of their uncertainty expressed by the simulated posterior distribution. The comparison of the four models through the Bayes factor and an information criterion provides evidence (to different degrees depending on the region) in favor of the stress release model based on the energy and the scaled energy. Therefore, among the quantities considered, this turns out to be the measure of the size of an earthquake to use in stress release models. At any instant, the time to the next event turns out to follow a Gompertz distribution, with a shape parameter that depends on time through the value of the conditional intensity at that instant. In light of this result, the issue of forecasting is tackled through both retrospective and prospective approaches. Retrospectively, the forecasting procedure is carried out on the occurrence times of the events recorded in each region, to determine whether the stress release model reproduces the observations used in the estimation procedure. Prospectively, the estimates of the time to the next event are compared with the dates of the earthquakes that occurred after the end of the learning catalog, in the 2003–2012 decade.
    Description: Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile in the framework of the 2007–2009 Agreement with Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), project S1: Analysis of the seismic potential in Italy for the evaluation of the seismic hazard.
    Description: Published
    Description: 147-168
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: point process ; probabilistic forecasting ; interevent time distribution ; seismogenic sources ; Bayesian inference ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    Slip rate depth distribution for active faults in Central Italy using numerical models (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Slip rate is a critical parameter for describing geologic and earthquake rates of known active faults. Although faults are inherently three-dimensional surfaces, the paucity of data allows for estimating only the slip rate at the ground surface and often only few values for an entire fault. These values are frequently assumed as proxies or as some average of slip rate at depth. Evidence of geological offset and single earthquake displacement, as well as mechanical requirements, show that fault slip varies significantly with depth. Slip rate should thus vary in a presumably similar way, yet these variations are rarely considered. In this work, we tackle the determination of slip rate depth distributions by applying the finite element method on a 2D vertical section, with stratification and faults, across the central Apennines, Italy. In a first step, we perform a plane-stress analysis assuming visco-elasto-plastic rheology and then search throughout a large range of values to minimize the RMS deviation between the model and the interseismic GPS velocities. Using a parametric analysis, we assess the accuracy of the best model and the sensitivity of its parameters. In a second step, we unlock the faults and let the model simulate 10 kyr of deformation to estimate the fault long-term slip rates. The overall average slip rate at depth is approximately 1.1 mm/yr for normal faults and 0.2 mm/yr for thrust faults. A maximum value of about 2 mm/yr characterizes the Avezzano fault that caused the 1915, Mw 7.0 earthquake. The slip rate depth distribution varies significantly from fault to fault and even between neighbouring faults, with maxima and minima located at different depths. We found uniform distributions only occasionally. We suggest that these findings can strongly influence the forecasting of cumulative earthquake depth distributions based on long-term fault slip rates.
    Description: Project “Abruzzo” (code: RBAP10ZC8K_ 003) funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: slip rate ; numerical model ; fault ; rheology ; central Italy ; active tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Systemic seismic risk assessment of road networks in urban areas (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-18
    Description: This article presents an integrated approach for the probabilistic systemic risk analysis of a road network considering spatial seismic hazard with correlation of ground motion intensities, vulnerability of the network components, and the effect of interactions within the network, as well as, between roadway components and built environment to the network functionality. The system performance is evaluated at the system level through a global connectivity performance indicator, which depends on both physical damages to its components and induced functionality losses due to interactions with other systems. An object-oriented modeling paradigm is used, where the complex problem of several interacting systems is decomposed in a number of interacting objects, accounting for intra- and interdependencies between and within systems. Each system is specified with its components, solving algorithms, performance indicators and interactions with other systems. The proposed approach is implemented for the analysis of the road network in the city of Thessaloniki (Greece) to demonstrate its applicability. In particular, the risk for the road network in the area is calculated, specifically focusing on the short-term impact of seismic events (just after the earthquake). The potential of road blockages due to collapses of adjacent buildings and overpass bridges is analyzed, trying to individuate possible criticalities related to specific components/subsystems. The application can be extended based on the proposed approach, to account for other interactions such as failure of pipelines beneath the road segments, collapse of adjacent electric poles, or malfunction of lighting and signaling systems due to damage in the electric power network.
    Description: Published
    Description: 524–540
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Systemic vulnerability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Probabilistic seismic hazard at Mt. Etna (Italy): The contribution of local fault activity in mid-term assessment (2012)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-01
    Description: In this work, we tackle the problem of seismic hazard at Etna deriving from the recurrent seismogenic activity of local faults, by adopting two independent methods based on probabilistic approaches. We assess the hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity and represent the occurrence probability calculated for different exposure times both on maps and at fault scale. Seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the “site approach” through the SASHA code and a new probabilistic attenuation model, indicate the eastern flank of the volcano as the most hazardous, with expected intensity (Iexp) in 50 years (i.e. the standard exposure time adopted in the seismic regulations) ranging from degrees IX to X EMS. In shorter exposure periods (20, 10, 5 years), values of Iexp up to IX are also reached in the same area, but they are clearly determined by the earthquakes generated by the Timpe fault system. In order to quantify the contribution of local seismogenic sources to the hazard of the region, we reconstruct the seismic history of each fault and calculate with SASHA the probability that earthquakes of a given intensity may be generated in different exposure times. Results confirm the high level of hazard due to the S. Tecla, Moscarello and Fiandaca faults especially for earthquakes of moderate intensity, i.e. VI≤I0≤VII, with probabilities respectively exceeding 50% and 20% in 10 years, and 30% and 10% in 5 years. Occurrence probability of major events (I0≥VIII) at the fault scale has also been investigated by statistics on intertimes. Under stationary assumptions we obtain a probability of 6.8% in 5 years for each structure; by introducing the time-dependency (time elapsed since the last event occurred on each fault) through a BPT model, we identify the Moscarello and S. Tecla faults as the most probable sources to be activated in the next 5 years (2013–2017). This result may represent a useful indication to establish priority criteria for actions aimed at reducing seismic risk at a local scale.
    Description: Published
    Description: 158-169
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Macroseismic intensity ; Seismic history ; Occurrence probability ; Time-dependent renewal process ; Individual sources ; Seismic hazard ; Mt. Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Forecasting seismic scenarios on Etna volcano (Italy) through probabilistic intensity attenuation models: A Bayesian approach (2012)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-01
    Description: In this paper, we apply a probabilistic procedure to model the attenuation of the macroseismic intensity in the Mt. Etna region, which allows estimating probabilistic seismic scenarios. Starting from the local earthquake catalogue, we select a dataset of 47 events having epicentral intensity I0 from VI to IX–X EMS, and update the model parameters previously achieved for Italy according to the Bayesian paradigm. For each class of epicentral intensity I0, we then estimate the probability distribution of the intensity at a site conditioned on the epicentre-site distance through a binomial-beta model, under the assumption of a point seismic source and isotropic decay (circular). The mode of the distribution is taken as the expected intensity Is at that site. Since the strongest earthquakes show a preferential propagation of shaking along the fault strike and a rapid decrease in the perpendicular direction, we also consider the anisotropic decay (elliptical) of the intensity due to a linear source (finite fault). We therefore transform the plane so that the ellipse has the length of the fault rupture as maximum axis and its strike as azimuth is changed into a circle with fixed diameter; then we apply the probabilistic model obtained for the isotropic case to the modified data. The entire calculation procedure is implemented in the software PROSCEN which, given the location and the epicentral intensity (and eventually the fault parameters) of the earthquake to be simulated, generates the probabilistic seismic scenario according to the isotropic and anisotropic models of attenuation. The results can be plotted on grid maps representing (1) the intensity that can be exceeded with a fixed probability, or (2) the probability of exceeding a fixed intensity value. The first representation may also find application in seismic monitoring at Etna volcano, in order to produce real-time intensity ShakeMaps based on the instrumental parameters calculated by the automatic earthquake processing system.
    Description: Published
    Description: 149-157
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Macroseismic intensity ; Attenuation Probability distribution ; Source models ; Seismic scenario ; Mt. Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe (2014)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE’s area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model’s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Description: EC-Research FP7-projects, SHARE, under grant agreement No. 226967 and NERA, under grant agreement No. 262330
    Description: Published
    Description: 1159-1172
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Probabilistic forecasting ; Statistical seismology ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    The effect of directivity in PSHA framework (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We propose a method to introduce a refined representation of the ground motion in the framework of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). This study is especially oriented to the incorporation of a priori information about source parameters, by focusing on the directivity effect and its influence on seismic hazard maps. Two strategies have been followed. One considers the seismic source as an extended source, and it is valid when the PSHA seismogenetic sources are represented as fault segments. We show that the incorporation of variables related to the directivity effect can lead to variations up to 30% of the hazard level, in terms of spectral acceleration response at 5 sec., exceeding probability of 10% in 50 years. The second one concerns the more general problem of the seismogenetic areas, where each point is a seismogenetic source having the same chance of enucleate a seismic event. In our proposition the point source is associated to the rupture-related parameters, defined using a statistical description. As an example, we consider a source point of an area characterized by strike slip faulting style. With the introduction of the directivity correction the modulation of the hazard map reaches values up to 100%. The introduction of directivity does not increase uniformly the hazard level, but acts more like a redistribution of the estimation that is consistent with the fault orientation. A general increase appears only when no a-priori information is available. However, nowadays good a-priori knowledge exists on style of faulting, dip and orientation of faults associated to the majority of the seismogenetic zones of the present seismic hazard maps. Following this method, all the information collected may be easily converted to obtain a more comprehensive and meaningful probabilistic Seismic Hazard formulation.
    Description: Published
    Description: 616-626
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Earthquake ground motion ; Earthquake source observation ; Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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