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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk  (8)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
  • Elsevier Science Limited  (10)
  • Wiley-Blackwell  (4)
  • Wiley
  • 2015-2019  (14)
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  • 1
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    Assessment of the seismic performance of a bituminous faced rockfill dam (2015)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-04
    Beschreibung: in the attempt to codify a procedure exportable to other similar cases, a thorough investigation of the seismic performance of a bituminous concrete faced rockfill dam built in Italy in the early eighties is herein presented. The dam presents a 90 m tall embankment built in a narrow canyon and is situated in a highly seismic region. The implemented methodology encompasses the indications provided by the most recent literature to point out the problems potentially caused by earthquakes and to account for the paramount factors affecting the response of the dam. Particular attention has been paid to the concept of performance, defining its goals in accordance with the most recent standards and deriving the correspondent limit conditions from observations reported in the literature. In order to optimize the computational effort, dynamic analyses with two and three dimensional finite difference codes have been combined to study the coupled response of the embankment, rocky foundation and bituminous facing. After validating the numerical models with centrifuge tests performed on small scale models of the embankment, the performance of the dam has been investigated with reference to a number of possible scenarios focusing 28 on the amplification spectra, the deformation of the embankment and the integrity of the bituminous lining.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 183–198
    Beschreibung: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): rockfill ; performance ; earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 2
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    Time-dependent Coulomb stress changes induced by the 2002-2003 Etna magmatic intrusions and implications on following seismic activities (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-06-25
    Beschreibung: In this paper, the relationship between the dike-forming magmatic intrusions and the faulting process at Mount Etna is investigated in terms of Coulomb stress changes. As case study, a complete time-dependent 3-D finite element model for the 2002-2003 eruption at Mount Etna is presented. In the model, which takes into account the topography, medium heterogeneities and principal fault systems in a viscoelastic/plastic rheology, we sequentially activated three dike-forming processes and looked at the induced temporal evolution of the Coulomb stress changes, during the co-intrusive and post-intrusive periods, on Pernicana and Santa Venerina faults. We investigated where and when fault slips were encouraged or not, and consequently how earthquakes may have been triggered. Results show positive Coulomb stress changes for the Pernicana Fault in accordance to the time, location and depth of the 27th October 2002 Pernicana earthquake (Md = 3.5). The amount of Coulomb stress changes in the area of Santa Venerina Fault, as induced by dike-forming intrusions only, is instead almost negligible and, probably, not sufficient to trigger the 29th October Santa Venerina earthquake (Md = 4.4), occurred two days after the start of the eruption. The necessary Coulomb stress change value to trigger this earthquake is instead reached if we consider it as induced by the 27th October Pernicana biggest earthquake, combined with the dike-induced stresses.
    Beschreibung: MED-SUV FP7 Project (Grant number 308665)
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 185-196
    Beschreibung: 4V. Dinamica dei processi pre-eruttivi
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Coulomb stress changes ; Finite Element Model ; Viscoelasticity ; Earthquakes ; Mount Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.08. Theory and Models ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 3
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    A performance-based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-06-22
    Beschreibung: Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision-making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first-excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance-based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post-mainshock environment. A time-dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event-dependent fragility curves as a function of the first-mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back-to-back non- linear dynamic analyses. An epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio-temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event-dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first-excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the num- ber of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L’Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three-story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first-excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 2179–2197
    Beschreibung: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: reserved
    Schlagwort(e): aftershock ; time-dependent reliability ; seismic risk ; etas modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 4
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    Stress releasemodel and proxy measures of earthquake size. Application to Italian seismogenic sources (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-05-12
    Beschreibung: This study presents a series of self-correcting models that are obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed, in which the evolution of the system over time is represented by the level of strain, moment, seismic energy, or energy scaled by the moment. We carry out the analysis on a regional basis by subdividing the study area into eight tectonically coherent regions. In each region, we reconstruct the seismic history and statistically evaluate the completeness of the resulting seismic catalog. Following the Bayesian paradigm, we apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain parameter estimates and a measure of their uncertainty expressed by the simulated posterior distribution. The comparison of the four models through the Bayes factor and an information criterion provides evidence (to different degrees depending on the region) in favor of the stress release model based on the energy and the scaled energy. Therefore, among the quantities considered, this turns out to be the measure of the size of an earthquake to use in stress release models. At any instant, the time to the next event turns out to follow a Gompertz distribution, with a shape parameter that depends on time through the value of the conditional intensity at that instant. In light of this result, the issue of forecasting is tackled through both retrospective and prospective approaches. Retrospectively, the forecasting procedure is carried out on the occurrence times of the events recorded in each region, to determine whether the stress release model reproduces the observations used in the estimation procedure. Prospectively, the estimates of the time to the next event are compared with the dates of the earthquakes that occurred after the end of the learning catalog, in the 2003–2012 decade.
    Beschreibung: Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile in the framework of the 2007–2009 Agreement with Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), project S1: Analysis of the seismic potential in Italy for the evaluation of the seismic hazard.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 147-168
    Beschreibung: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Beschreibung: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): point process ; probabilistic forecasting ; interevent time distribution ; seismogenic sources ; Bayesian inference ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 5
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    Slip rate depth distribution for active faults in Central Italy using numerical models (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-05-12
    Beschreibung: Slip rate is a critical parameter for describing geologic and earthquake rates of known active faults. Although faults are inherently three-dimensional surfaces, the paucity of data allows for estimating only the slip rate at the ground surface and often only few values for an entire fault. These values are frequently assumed as proxies or as some average of slip rate at depth. Evidence of geological offset and single earthquake displacement, as well as mechanical requirements, show that fault slip varies significantly with depth. Slip rate should thus vary in a presumably similar way, yet these variations are rarely considered. In this work, we tackle the determination of slip rate depth distributions by applying the finite element method on a 2D vertical section, with stratification and faults, across the central Apennines, Italy. In a first step, we perform a plane-stress analysis assuming visco-elasto-plastic rheology and then search throughout a large range of values to minimize the RMS deviation between the model and the interseismic GPS velocities. Using a parametric analysis, we assess the accuracy of the best model and the sensitivity of its parameters. In a second step, we unlock the faults and let the model simulate 10 kyr of deformation to estimate the fault long-term slip rates. The overall average slip rate at depth is approximately 1.1 mm/yr for normal faults and 0.2 mm/yr for thrust faults. A maximum value of about 2 mm/yr characterizes the Avezzano fault that caused the 1915, Mw 7.0 earthquake. The slip rate depth distribution varies significantly from fault to fault and even between neighbouring faults, with maxima and minima located at different depths. We found uniform distributions only occasionally. We suggest that these findings can strongly influence the forecasting of cumulative earthquake depth distributions based on long-term fault slip rates.
    Beschreibung: Project “Abruzzo” (code: RBAP10ZC8K_ 003) funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR).
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Beschreibung: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Beschreibung: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): slip rate ; numerical model ; fault ; rheology ; central Italy ; active tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 6
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    Systemic seismic risk assessment of road networks in urban areas (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-03-18
    Beschreibung: This article presents an integrated approach for the probabilistic systemic risk analysis of a road network considering spatial seismic hazard with correlation of ground motion intensities, vulnerability of the network components, and the effect of interactions within the network, as well as, between roadway components and built environment to the network functionality. The system performance is evaluated at the system level through a global connectivity performance indicator, which depends on both physical damages to its components and induced functionality losses due to interactions with other systems. An object-oriented modeling paradigm is used, where the complex problem of several interacting systems is decomposed in a number of interacting objects, accounting for intra- and interdependencies between and within systems. Each system is specified with its components, solving algorithms, performance indicators and interactions with other systems. The proposed approach is implemented for the analysis of the road network in the city of Thessaloniki (Greece) to demonstrate its applicability. In particular, the risk for the road network in the area is calculated, specifically focusing on the short-term impact of seismic events (just after the earthquake). The potential of road blockages due to collapses of adjacent buildings and overpass bridges is analyzed, trying to individuate possible criticalities related to specific components/subsystems. The application can be extended based on the proposed approach, to account for other interactions such as failure of pipelines beneath the road segments, collapse of adjacent electric poles, or malfunction of lighting and signaling systems due to damage in the electric power network.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 524–540
    Beschreibung: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Systemic vulnerability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 7
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    Volcanic plume vent conditions retrieved from infrared images: A forward and inverse modeling approach (2015)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-02-24
    Beschreibung: We present a coupled fluid-dynamic and electromagnetic model for volcanic ash plumes. In a forward approach, the model is able to simulate the plume dynamics from prescribed input flow conditions and generate the corresponding synthetic thermal infrared (TIR) image, allowing a comparison with field-based observations. An inversion procedure is then developed to retrieve vent conditions from TIR images, and to independently estimate the mass eruption rate. The adopted fluid-dynamic model is based on a one-dimensional, stationary description of a self-similar turbulent plume, for which an asymptotic analytical solution is obtained. The electromagnetic emission/absorption model is based on Schwarzschild's equation and on Mie's theory for disperse particles, and we assume that particles are coarser than the radiation wavelength (about 10 μm) and that scattering is negligible. In the inversion procedure, model parameter space is sampled to find the optimal set of input conditions which minimizes the difference between the experimental and the synthetic image. Application of the inversion procedure to an ash plume at Santiaguito (Santa Maria volcano, Guatemala) has allowed us to retrieve the main plume input parameters, namely mass flow rate, initial radius, velocity, temperature, gas mass ratio, entrainment coefficient and their related uncertainty. Moreover, by coupling with the electromagnetic model we have been able to obtain a reliable estimate of the equivalent Sauter diameter of the total particle size distribution. The presented method is general and, in principle, can be applied to the spatial distribution of particle concentration and temperature obtained by any fluid-dynamic model, either integral or multidimensional, stationary or time-dependent, single or multiphase. The method discussed here is fast and robust, thus indicating potential for applications to real-time estimation of ash mass flux and particle size distribution, which is crucial for model-based forecasts of the volcanic ash dispersal process.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 129–147
    Beschreibung: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Beschreibung: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Beschreibung: 5V. Sorveglianza vulcanica ed emergenze
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Volcanic ash plume ; Volcanic ash plume ; Thermal camera ; Inversion ; Mass flow ; Particle size ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.08. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.02. Experimental volcanism ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.04. Thermodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.01. Data processing ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.05. Mathematical geophysics::05.05.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 8
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    The explosive activity of the 1669 Monti Rossi eruption at Mt. Etna (Italy) (2017)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-02-24
    Beschreibung: Preceded by 14 days of intense seismic activity, a new eruption started on the south flank of Mt Etna, Sicily (Italy) early in the morning of 11 March 1669 opening up a series of NS eruptive fissures. The eruption is one of the most destructive flank eruptions of Etna in historical times; it lasted until 11 July, and was characterized by simultaneous explosive and effusive activity during the first three months, while only lava flow output in the last month. The activity built up the large composite cone of the ``Monti Rossi{'' at the lower end of the eruptive fissures, and caused severe damage to the nearby inhabited areas. The prolonged effusive activity generated lava flows for 〉15 km, which destroyed several villages and the western part of the town of Catania before reaching the coastline and entering the sea. In this paper, we examine the tephro-stratigraphy of the products of the explosie activity. An in-depth analysis of historical accounts was used to define the chronology of the main eruptive phases (precursors, explosive activity and initial effusive phenomena). The geology of the cone and of the fallout deposits were defined through a field survey over a distance of 5 km from the Monti Rossi. Textural (grain-size, morphological, componentry), density and petrological analyses of tephra samples provided a sedimentological, physical and geochemical characterization of erupted products. Integrating ground and historical data enabled defining the evolution of the cone, identifying and correlating four main cone-forming units. By tracing the dispersal map of the main distal tephra beds (the finer ash being dispersed mainly to the NE as far as Calabria and to the south of Sicily and the 10-cm isopach of the total deposit covering an area up to 53 km(2)), we estimated a total tephra fallout volume, including the Monti Rossi cone, of about 6.6 x 10(7) m(3) (about 32 x 10(7) m(3) DRE). The 1669 event can be considered an archetype of the most hazardous expected eruption on the densely populated flanks of Etna. Reconstructing the eruptive chronology and styles of the 1669 eruption therefore, represents the basic data to assess volcanic hazard from eventual similar flank events in the future. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 115-133
    Beschreibung: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Mt. Etna 1669 Monti Rossi eruption Eruption dynamics Eruption scenario Explosive activity ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 9
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    Potentially harmful elements released by volcanic ashes: examples from the Mediterranean area (2017)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-12-11
    Beschreibung: We have performed leaching experiments on the fine (〈 2 mm) particulate sampled in seven active and quiescent volcanic systems in the Mediterranean area. We reacted the particulate both in pure water and in a synthetic gastric solution. The amount of As, Mn, Pb, Ba, U and Ni leached by pure water exceeded the MAC limits for drinking water in all the materials under investigation. We defined a tolerable ash intake index (TAI) to evaluate the impact of ash ingestion, and we find that 0.2 g and 12 g of ingested fine ash from Vesuvius and Vulcano are enough to exceed the safety limits for Pb and As. Six grams of fine ashes from Stromboli are sufficient to overstep the safety limits for As. Based on our mineralogical characterisation of the particulate, we expect that the submillimetric ash fraction, with a higher surface/volume ratio, releases a greater relative amount of trace metals, which are concentrated in the thin surface layer produced by the reaction of the pristine volcanic particles with coexisting volcanic gases. This means that our measurements represent lower bounds to the actual amount of metal released in aqueous solutions by the volcanic ashes from the locations under investigation. Our results place the first constraints on the mobilisation of toxic elements from volcanic ash, which are necessary to assess the associated potential health risk of volcanic areas.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 16-28
    Beschreibung: 3V. Proprietà dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Ash ; Volcanoes ; Mediterranean ; Trace Metals ; Toxicity ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    The effect of Etna volcanic ash clouds on the Maltese Islands (2015)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: In this paper, we have studied in depth the effect of Etna volcanic ash clouds on the Maltese Islands. Research was carried out to gather information about Etna's eruptions that impacted the Maltese Islands, starting with historical eruptions dating back to the 14th century continuing to present day. A statistical approach was utilized to provide tephra deposit load and ash concentration using PUFF — a model which simulates the transport, dispersion and sedimentation of volcanic ash. Three different eruptive scenarios that characterize Etna's recent activity were considered; the first scenario representing the 2001 eruption (Sc1), the second scenario representing the July 1998 eruption (Sc2) whilst the third scenario represents the recent activity in 2011– 2012 (Sc3). We found that the time taken for the volcanic ash cloud to reach the Maltese Islands, when the wind direction is toward the south-west ranges from 4 to 6 h. The probability that an Etna volcanic cloud reaches Malta during an eruption is about 15% per annum. The now calibrated model may be now used to produce deposit load and cumulative columnar load (i.e. summation from maximum height of volcanic cloud to ground) of volcanic ash in atmosphere for the Maltese area and help the aviation authorities and Malta airport to make decisions during Etna eruptions. This will be of direct use to local communities and aviation.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 13-26
    Beschreibung: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): volcanic ash forecasting ; Maltese Islands ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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