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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk  (16)
  • Springer Science+Business Media B.V.  (10)
  • Elsevier Science Limited  (3)
  • Wiley-Blackwell  (3)
  • Wiley
  • 2015-2019  (16)
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Year
  • 1
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    The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results (2016)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-08
    Description: The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.​efehr.​org).
    Description: Published
    Description: 3553-3596
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment ; Uncertainty analysis ; Earthquake engineering ; Logic-tree ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.02. Seismological data
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Assessment of the seismic performance of a bituminous faced rockfill dam (2015)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-04
    Description: in the attempt to codify a procedure exportable to other similar cases, a thorough investigation of the seismic performance of a bituminous concrete faced rockfill dam built in Italy in the early eighties is herein presented. The dam presents a 90 m tall embankment built in a narrow canyon and is situated in a highly seismic region. The implemented methodology encompasses the indications provided by the most recent literature to point out the problems potentially caused by earthquakes and to account for the paramount factors affecting the response of the dam. Particular attention has been paid to the concept of performance, defining its goals in accordance with the most recent standards and deriving the correspondent limit conditions from observations reported in the literature. In order to optimize the computational effort, dynamic analyses with two and three dimensional finite difference codes have been combined to study the coupled response of the embankment, rocky foundation and bituminous facing. After validating the numerical models with centrifuge tests performed on small scale models of the embankment, the performance of the dam has been investigated with reference to a number of possible scenarios focusing 28 on the amplification spectra, the deformation of the embankment and the integrity of the bituminous lining.
    Description: Published
    Description: 183–198
    Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: rockfill ; performance ; earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    A performance-based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision-making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first-excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance-based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post-mainshock environment. A time-dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event-dependent fragility curves as a function of the first-mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back-to-back non- linear dynamic analyses. An epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio-temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event-dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first-excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the num- ber of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L’Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three-story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first-excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2179–2197
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: aftershock ; time-dependent reliability ; seismic risk ; etas modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    Stress releasemodel and proxy measures of earthquake size. Application to Italian seismogenic sources (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: This study presents a series of self-correcting models that are obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed, in which the evolution of the system over time is represented by the level of strain, moment, seismic energy, or energy scaled by the moment. We carry out the analysis on a regional basis by subdividing the study area into eight tectonically coherent regions. In each region, we reconstruct the seismic history and statistically evaluate the completeness of the resulting seismic catalog. Following the Bayesian paradigm, we apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain parameter estimates and a measure of their uncertainty expressed by the simulated posterior distribution. The comparison of the four models through the Bayes factor and an information criterion provides evidence (to different degrees depending on the region) in favor of the stress release model based on the energy and the scaled energy. Therefore, among the quantities considered, this turns out to be the measure of the size of an earthquake to use in stress release models. At any instant, the time to the next event turns out to follow a Gompertz distribution, with a shape parameter that depends on time through the value of the conditional intensity at that instant. In light of this result, the issue of forecasting is tackled through both retrospective and prospective approaches. Retrospectively, the forecasting procedure is carried out on the occurrence times of the events recorded in each region, to determine whether the stress release model reproduces the observations used in the estimation procedure. Prospectively, the estimates of the time to the next event are compared with the dates of the earthquakes that occurred after the end of the learning catalog, in the 2003–2012 decade.
    Description: Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile in the framework of the 2007–2009 Agreement with Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), project S1: Analysis of the seismic potential in Italy for the evaluation of the seismic hazard.
    Description: Published
    Description: 147-168
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: point process ; probabilistic forecasting ; interevent time distribution ; seismogenic sources ; Bayesian inference ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Building vulnerability and seismic risk analysis in the urban area of Mt. Etna volcano (Italy) (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: The tectonic system of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) is the source of most of the strongest earthquakes occurring in the area over the last 205 years. A total of 12 events with epicentre intensities CVIII EMS have occurred at Mt. Etna, 10 of which were located on the eastern flank. This indicates a mean recurrence time of about 20 years. This area is highly urbanised, with many villages around the volcano at altitudes up to 700 m a.s.l. The southern and eastern flanks are particularly highly populated areas, with numerous villages very close to each other. The probabilistic seismic hazard due to local faults for Mt. Etna was calculated by adopting a site approach to seismic hazard assessment. Only the site histories of local volcano-tectonic earthquakes were considered, leaving out the effects due to strong regional earthquakes that occurred in north-eastern and south-eastern Sicily. The inventory used in this application refers to residential buildings. These data were extracted from the 1991 census of the Italian National Institute of Statistics, and are grouped according to the census sections. The seismic vulnerability of the elements at risk belonging to a given building typology is described by a vulnerability index, in accordance with a damage model based on macroseismic intensities. For the estimation of economic losses due to physical damage to buildings, an integrated impact indicator was used, which is equivalent to the lost building volume. The expected annualised economic earthquake losses were evaluated both in absolute and in relative terms, and were compared with the geographical distribution of seismic hazard and with similar evaluations of losses for other regions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2031–2045
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Economic losses ; Mt. Etna volcano ; Seismic risk ; Vulnerability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Seismic hazard assessment in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Italy): a probabilistic approach based on macroseismic data applied to volcano-tectonic seismicity (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: In the framework of the UPStrat-MAFA project, a seismic hazard assessment has been undertaken in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna as a first step in studies aimed at evaluating the risk on an urban scale. The analysis has been carried out with the SASHA code which uses macroseismic data in order to calculate, starting from the site seismic history, the maximum intensity value expected in a given site with a probability of exceedance of 10 % (Iref), for a fixed exposure time. Depending on the aims of the project, hazard is estimated for local volcano-tectonic seismicity and short exposure times (10 and 30 years), without taking into account the contribution of ‘‘regional’’ events characterized by much longer recurrence times. Results from tasks A, B and D of the project have produced an updated macroseismic dataset, better performing attenuation models and new tools for SASHA, respectively. The maps obtained indicate that the eastern flank of Etna, the most urbanized sector of the volcano, is characterized by a high level of hazard with Iref values up to degree VIII EMS, and even IX EMS locally. The disaggregated data analysis allows recognizing the ‘‘design earthquake’’ and the seismogenic fault which most contribute to the hazard at a site-scale. The latter analysis is the starting point to select the scenario earthquake to be used in the analyses of tasks C and F of the project dealing with, respectively, synthetic ground motion simulations and the evaluation of the Disruption Index.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1813–1825
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Volcano-tectonic earthquakes ; Macroseismic intensity ; Seismic history ; Attenuation models ; Exceedance probability ; Seismic hazard ; Mt. Etna ; Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Slip rate depth distribution for active faults in Central Italy using numerical models (2016)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Slip rate is a critical parameter for describing geologic and earthquake rates of known active faults. Although faults are inherently three-dimensional surfaces, the paucity of data allows for estimating only the slip rate at the ground surface and often only few values for an entire fault. These values are frequently assumed as proxies or as some average of slip rate at depth. Evidence of geological offset and single earthquake displacement, as well as mechanical requirements, show that fault slip varies significantly with depth. Slip rate should thus vary in a presumably similar way, yet these variations are rarely considered. In this work, we tackle the determination of slip rate depth distributions by applying the finite element method on a 2D vertical section, with stratification and faults, across the central Apennines, Italy. In a first step, we perform a plane-stress analysis assuming visco-elasto-plastic rheology and then search throughout a large range of values to minimize the RMS deviation between the model and the interseismic GPS velocities. Using a parametric analysis, we assess the accuracy of the best model and the sensitivity of its parameters. In a second step, we unlock the faults and let the model simulate 10 kyr of deformation to estimate the fault long-term slip rates. The overall average slip rate at depth is approximately 1.1 mm/yr for normal faults and 0.2 mm/yr for thrust faults. A maximum value of about 2 mm/yr characterizes the Avezzano fault that caused the 1915, Mw 7.0 earthquake. The slip rate depth distribution varies significantly from fault to fault and even between neighbouring faults, with maxima and minima located at different depths. We found uniform distributions only occasionally. We suggest that these findings can strongly influence the forecasting of cumulative earthquake depth distributions based on long-term fault slip rates.
    Description: Project “Abruzzo” (code: RBAP10ZC8K_ 003) funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: slip rate ; numerical model ; fault ; rheology ; central Italy ; active tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Systemic seismic risk assessment of road networks in urban areas (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-18
    Description: This article presents an integrated approach for the probabilistic systemic risk analysis of a road network considering spatial seismic hazard with correlation of ground motion intensities, vulnerability of the network components, and the effect of interactions within the network, as well as, between roadway components and built environment to the network functionality. The system performance is evaluated at the system level through a global connectivity performance indicator, which depends on both physical damages to its components and induced functionality losses due to interactions with other systems. An object-oriented modeling paradigm is used, where the complex problem of several interacting systems is decomposed in a number of interacting objects, accounting for intra- and interdependencies between and within systems. Each system is specified with its components, solving algorithms, performance indicators and interactions with other systems. The proposed approach is implemented for the analysis of the road network in the city of Thessaloniki (Greece) to demonstrate its applicability. In particular, the risk for the road network in the area is calculated, specifically focusing on the short-term impact of seismic events (just after the earthquake). The potential of road blockages due to collapses of adjacent buildings and overpass bridges is analyzed, trying to individuate possible criticalities related to specific components/subsystems. The application can be extended based on the proposed approach, to account for other interactions such as failure of pipelines beneath the road segments, collapse of adjacent electric poles, or malfunction of lighting and signaling systems due to damage in the electric power network.
    Description: Published
    Description: 524–540
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Systemic vulnerability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    The role of the urban system dysfunction in the assessment of seismic risk in the Mt. Etna area (Italy) (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-08
    Description: A procedure for seismic risk assessment is applied to the Mt. Etna area (eastern Sicily, Italy) through assessment of urban system dysfunction following the occurrence of an earthquake.The tool used is based on the Disruption Index as a concept implemented in Simulator QuakeIST, which defines urban disruption following a natural disaster. The first element of the procedure is the definition of the seismic input, which is based on information about historical seismicity and seismogenic faults. The second element is computation of seismic impact on the building stock and infrastructure in the area considered. Information on urban-scale vulnerability was collected and a geographic information system was used to organise the data relating to buildings and network systems (e.g., building stock, schools, strategic structures, lifelines). The central idea underlying the definition of the Disruption Index is identification and evaluation of the impact on a target community through the physical elements that most contribute to severe disruption. The procedure applied in this study (i.e., software and data) constitutes a very useful operational tool to drive the development of strategies to minimise risks from earthquakes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1979–2008
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Seismic impact ; Disruption index ; Urban system ; Risk measures ; Mt. Etna area (Italy) ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Informal Education for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-23
    Description: Education is a long-term defence against disasters that enables societies to better cope with seismic hazard in different ways. It can directly influence risk perception, skills and knowledge, and promote access to information and resources. The ‘Urban Disasters Prevention Strategies using Macroseismic Faults’ (UPStrat-MAFA) project investigated disaster mitigation strategies, including education. Risk reduction efforts implemented in schools were measured through surveys conducted mostly in Iceland, but also in major urban areas of Italy and Portugal that are all exposed to various levels of seismic hazard. The survey included an evaluation of how active local authorities were in the dissemination of information, and how this information was channelled to schools. Vulnerability mitigation for building interiors and efforts towards educating pupils towards a culture of safety were also measured. The study indicates that the authorities and scientists need to take actions for the introduction of hazard education into school curricula, and to provide better information on the hazard at the local level. However, above all, they owe children better tools towards a more efficient preparedness.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2105–2116
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: earthquake risk, preventive measures, preparedness, risk reduction, risk awareness ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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