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  • Geographic location/entity  (16)
  • Climate variability  (12)
  • American Meteorological Society  (27)
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  • 2015-2019  (27)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 1739-1751, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0200.1.
    Description: The Indian Ocean has sustained robust surface warming in recent decades, but the role of multidecadal variability remains unclear. Using ocean model hindcasts, characteristics of low-frequency Indian Ocean temperature variations are explored. Simulated upper-ocean temperature changes across the Indian Ocean in the hindcast are consistent with those recorded in observational products and ocean reanalyses. Indian Ocean temperatures exhibit strong warming trends since the 1950s limited to the surface and south of 30°S, while extensive subsurface cooling occurs over much of the tropical Indian Ocean. Previous work focused on diagnosing causes of these long-term trends in the Indian Ocean over the second half of the twentieth century. Instead, the temporal evolution of Indian Ocean subsurface heat content is shown here to reveal distinct multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation, and the long-term trends are thus interpreted to result from aliasing of the low-frequency variability. Transmission of the multidecadal signal occurs via an oceanic pathway through the Indonesian Throughflow and is manifest across the Indian Ocean centered along 12°S as westward-propagating Rossby waves modulating thermocline and subsurface heat content variations. Resulting low-frequency changes in the eastern Indian Ocean thermocline depth are associated with decadal variations in the frequency of Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events, with positive IOD events unusually common in the 1960s and 1990s with a relatively shallow thermocline. In contrast, the deeper thermocline depth in the 1970s and 1980s is associated with frequent negative IOD and rare positive IOD events. Changes in Pacific wind forcing in recent decades and associated rapid increases in Indian Ocean subsurface heat content can thus affect the basin’s leading mode of variability, with implications for regional climate and vulnerable societies in surrounding countries.
    Description: This research was supported by a Research Fellowship by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, as well as the Ocean Climate Change Institute and the Investment in Science Fund at WHOI.
    Description: 2017-08-15
    Keywords: Indian Ocean ; Ocean dynamics ; Climate variability ; Multidecadal variability ; Pacific decadal oscillation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 966–987, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0110.1.
    Description: A key remaining challenge in oceanography is the understanding and parameterization of small-scale mixing. Evidence suggests that topographic features play a significant role in enhancing mixing in the Southern Ocean. This study uses 914 high-resolution hydrographic profiles from novel EM-APEX profiling floats to investigate turbulent mixing north of the Kerguelen Plateau, a major topographic feature in the Southern Ocean. A shear–strain finescale parameterization is applied to estimate diapycnal diffusivity in the upper 1600 m of the ocean. The indirect estimates of mixing match direct microstructure profiler observations made simultaneously. It is found that mixing intensities have strong spatial and temporal variability, ranging from O(10−6) to O(10−3) m2 s−1. This study identifies topographic roughness, current speed, and wind speed as the main factors controlling mixing intensity. Additionally, the authors find strong regional variability in mixing dynamics and enhanced mixing in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current frontal region. This enhanced mixing is attributed to dissipating internal waves generated by the interaction of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the topography of the Kerguelen Plateau. Extending the mixing observations from the Kerguelen region to the entire Southern Ocean, this study infers a large water mass transformation rate of 17 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) across the boundary of Antarctic Intermediate Water and Upper Circumpolar Deep Water in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This work suggests that the contribution of mixing to the Southern Ocean overturning circulation budget is particularly significant in fronts.
    Description: AM was supported by the joint CSIRO–University of Tasmania Quantitative Marine Science (QMS) program and the 2009 CSIRO Wealth from Ocean Flagship Collaborative Fund. BMS was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program, jointly funded by the Department of the Environment and CSIRO. KLPs salary support was provided by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution bridge support funds.
    Description: 2015-10-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Southern Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diapycnal mixing ; Fronts ; Ocean circulation ; Topographic effects ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Mixing
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 1610–1631, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0047.1.
    Description: The use of a measure to diagnose submesoscale isopycnal diffusivity by determining the best match between observations of a tracer and simulations with varying small-scale diffusivities is tested. Specifically, the robustness of a “roughness” measure to discriminate between tracer fields experiencing different submesoscale isopycnal diffusivities and advected by scaled altimetric velocity fields is investigated. This measure is used to compare numerical simulations of the tracer released at a depth of about 1.5 km in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean during the Diapycnal and Isopycnal Mixing Experiment in the Southern Ocean (DIMES) field campaign with observations of the tracer taken on DIMES cruises. The authors find that simulations with an isopycnal diffusivity of ~20 m2 s−1 best match observations in the Pacific sector of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), rising to ~20–50 m2 s−1 through Drake Passage, representing submesoscale processes and any mesoscale processes unresolved by the advecting altimetry fields. The roughness measure is demonstrated to be a statistically robust way to estimate a small-scale diffusivity when measurements are relatively sparse in space and time, although it does not work if there are too few measurements overall. The planning of tracer measurements during a cruise in order to maximize the robustness of the roughness measure is also considered. It is found that the robustness is increased if the spatial resolution of tracer measurements is increased with the time since tracer release.
    Description: We thank the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council and the U.S. National Science Foundation for funding the DIMES project.
    Description: 2015-12-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Southern Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diffusion ; Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Isopycnal mixing ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Tracers ; Models and modeling ; Model comparison ; Tracers
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 2735-2768, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0134.1.
    Description: In Greenland’s glacial fjords, heat and freshwater are exchanged between glaciers and the ocean. Submarine melting of glaciers has been implicated as a potential trigger for recent glacier acceleration, and observations of ocean heat transport are increasingly being used to infer the submarine melt rates. The complete heat, salt, and mass budgets that underlie such methods, however, have been largely neglected. Here, a new framework for exploring glacial fjord budgets is developed. Building on estuarine studies of salt budgets, the heat, salt, and mass transports through the fjord are decomposed, and new equations for calculating freshwater fluxes from submarine meltwater and runoff are presented. This method is applied to moored records from Sermilik Fjord, near the terminus of Helheim Glacier, to evaluate the dominant balances in the fjord budgets and to estimate freshwater fluxes. Throughout the year, two different regimes are found. In the nonsummer months, advective transports are balanced by changes in heat/salt storage within their ability to measure; freshwater fluxes cannot be inferred as a residual. In the summer, a mean exchange flow emerges, consisting of inflowing Atlantic water and outflowing glacially modified water. This exchange transports heat toward the glacier and is primarily balanced by changes in storage and latent heat for melting ice. The total freshwater flux increases over the summer, reaching 1200 ± 700 m3 s−1 of runoff and 1500 ± 500 m3 s−1 of submarine meltwater from glaciers and icebergs in August. The methods and results highlight important components of fjord budgets, particularly the storage and barotropic terms, that have been not been appropriately considered in previous estimates of submarine melting.
    Description: The data collection and analysis was funded by NSF Grants ARC-0909373, OCE-113008, and OCE-1434041.
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Estuaries ; Glaciers ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Coastal flows ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Freshwater ; Snowmelt/icemelt ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; In situ oceanic observations
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 2645-2662, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0191.1.
    Description: The occurrence, drivers, and implications of small-scale O(2–5) km diameter coherent vortices, referred to as submesoscale eddies, over the inner shelf south of Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts, are examined using high-frequency (HF), radar-based, high-resolution (400 m) observations of surface currents. Within the 300 km2 study area, eddies occurred at rates of 1 and 4 day−1 in winter and summer, respectively. Most were less than 5 h in duration, smaller than 4 km in diameter, and rotated less than once over their lifespan; 60% of the eddies formed along the eastern edge of study area, adjacent to Wasque Shoal, and moved westward into the interior, often with relative vorticity greater than f. Eddy generation was linked to vortex stretching on the ebb and flood tide as well as the interaction of the spatially variable tide and the wind-driven currents; however, these features had complex patterns of surface divergence and stretching. Eddies located away from Wasque Shoal were related to the movement of wind-driven surface currents, as wind direction controlled where eddies formed as well as density effects. Using an analysis of particles advected within the radar-based surface currents, the observed eddies were found to be generally leaky, losing 60%–80% of particles over their lifespan, but still more retentive than the background flow. As a result, the combined translation and rotational effects of the observed eddies were an important source of lateral exchange for surface waters over the inner shelf.
    Description: The HF radar data utilized here were obtained using internal funding from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. The analysis was supported by NSF OCE Grant 1332646.
    Description: 2017-02-19
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Continental shelf/slope ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Currents ; Eddies ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Radars/Radar observations
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 3004–3023, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00591.1.
    Description: Time series of surface meteorology and air–sea exchanges of heat, freshwater, and momentum collected from a long-term surface mooring located 1600 km west of the coast of northern Chile are analyzed. The observations, spanning 2000–10, have been withheld from assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. As such, they provide a unique in situ record of atmosphere–ocean coupling in a trade wind region characterized by persistent stratocumulus clouds. The annual cycle is described, as is the interannual variability. Annual variability in the air–sea heat flux is dominated by the annual cycle in net shortwave radiation. In austral summer, the ocean is heated; the 9-yr mean annual heating of the ocean is 38 W m−2. Ocean cooling is seen in 2006–08, coincident with La Niña events. Over the full record, significant trends were found. Increases in wind speed, wind stress, and latent heat flux over 9 yr were 0.8 m s−1, 0.022 N m−2, and 20 W m−2 or 13%, 29%, and 20% of the respective 9-yr means. The decrease in the annual mean net heat flux was 39 W m−2 or 104% of the mean. These changes were found to be largely associated with spring and fall. If this change persists, the annual mean net air–sea heat flux will change sign by 2016, when the magnitude of the wind stress will have increased by close to 60%.
    Description: This work is supported by the NOAA Climate Observation Division (NA09OAR4320129).
    Keywords: Climate variability ; Trends
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2773–2789, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0031.1.
    Description: Tidal oscillatory salt transport, induced by the correlation between tidal variations in salinity and velocity, is an important term for the subtidal salt balance under the commonly used Eulerian method of salt transport decomposition. In this paper, its mechanisms in a partially stratified estuary are investigated with a numerical model of the Hudson estuary. During neap tides, when the estuary is strongly stratified, the tidal oscillatory salt transport is mainly due to the hydraulic response of the halocline to the longitudinal variation of topography. This mechanism does not involve vertical mixing, so it should not be regarded as oscillatory shear dispersion, but instead it should be regarded as advective transport of salt, which results from the vertical distortion of exchange flow obtained in the Eulerian decomposition by vertical fluctuations of the halocline. During spring tides, the estuary is weakly stratified, and vertical mixing plays a significant role in the tidal variation of salinity. In the spring tide regime, the tidal oscillatory salt transport is mainly due to oscillatory shear dispersion. In addition, the transient lateral circulation near large channel curvature causes the transverse tilt of the halocline. This mechanism has little effect on the cross-sectionally integrated tidal oscillatory salt transport, but it results in an apparent left–right cross-channel asymmetry of tidal oscillatory salt transport. With the isohaline framework, tidal oscillatory salt transport can be regarded as a part of the net estuarine salt transport, and the Lagrangian advective mechanism and dispersive mechanism can be distinguished.
    Description: Tao Wang was supported by the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research (Grant SKLEC-KF201509) and Chinese Scholarship Council. Geyer was supported by by NSF Grant OCE 0926427. Wensheng Jiang was supported by NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant U1406401).
    Description: 2016-05-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Estuaries ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Baroclinic flows ; Dispersion ; Shear structure/flows ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Diapycnal mixing ; Models and modeling ; Regional models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 361–367, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0171.1.
    Description: Idealized laboratory experiments investigate the glacier–ocean boundary dynamics near a vertical glacier in a two-layer stratified fluid. Discharge of meltwater runoff at the base of the glacier (subglacial discharge) enhances submarine melting. In the laboratory, the effect of multiple sources of subglacial discharge is simulated by introducing freshwater at freezing temperature from two point sources at the base of an ice block representing the glacier. The buoyant plumes of cold meltwater and subglacial discharge water entrain warm ambient water, rise vertically, and interact within a layer of depth H2 if the distance between the sources x0 is smaller than H2α/0.35, where α is the entrainment constant. The plume water detaches from the glacier face at the interface between the two layers and/or at the free surface, as confirmed by previous numerical studies and field observations. A plume model is used to explain the observed nonmonotonic dependence of submarine melting on the sources’ separation. The distance between the two sources influences the entrainment of warm water in the plumes and consequently the amount of submarine melting and the final location of the meltwater within the water column. Two interacting plumes located very close together are observed to melt approximately half as much as two independent plumes. The inclusion, or parameterization, of the dynamics regulating multiple plumes’ interaction is therefore necessary for a correct estimate of submarine melting. Hence, the distribution and number of sources of subglacial discharge may play an important role in glacial melt rates and fjord stratification and circulation.
    Description: Support to C.C. was given by the NSF Project OCE-1130008 and OCE-1434041. V.M.G. received support from the “Gori” Fellowship.
    Description: 2016-07-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Glaciers ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Buoyancy ; Entrainment ; Ocean dynamics ; Small scale processes ; Models and modeling ; Laboratory/physical models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 327–348, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0112.1.
    Description: Potential vorticity structure in two segments of the North Atlantic’s western boundary current is examined using concurrent, high-resolution measurements of hydrography and velocity from gliders. Spray gliders occupied 40 transects across the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico and 11 transects across the Gulf Stream downstream of Cape Hatteras. Cross-stream distributions of the Ertel potential vorticity and its components are calculated for each transect under the assumptions that all flow is in the direction of measured vertically averaged currents and that the flow is geostrophic. Mean cross-stream distributions of hydrographic properties, potential vorticity, and alongstream velocity are calculated for both the Loop Current and the detached Gulf Stream in both depth and density coordinates. Differences between these mean transects highlight the downstream changes in western boundary current structure. As the current increases its transport downstream, upper-layer potential vorticity is generally reduced because of the combined effects of increased anticyclonic relative vorticity, reduced stratification, and increased cross-stream density gradients. The only exception is within the 20-km-wide cyclonic flank of the Gulf Stream, where intense cyclonic relative vorticity results in more positive potential vorticity than in the Loop Current. Cross-stream gradients of mean potential vorticity satisfy necessary conditions for both barotropic and baroclinic instability within the western boundary current. Instances of very low or negative potential vorticity, which predispose the flow to various overturning instabilities, are observed in individual transects across both the Loop Current and the Gulf Stream.
    Description: Glider operations in the Gulf Stream were supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant OCE-0220769. Glider operations in the Gulf of Mexico were supported by BP. R.E.T. was supported by the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists and the Independent Research and Development Program at WHOI.
    Description: 2016-07-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; North Atlantic Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Boundary currents ; Potential vorticity ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Boundary currents
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 33 (2016): 839-846, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-15-0221.1.
    Description: During the Shallow Water Acoustic Experiment 2006 (SW06) conducted on the New Jersey continental shelf in the summer of 2006, detailed measurements of the ocean environment were made along a fixed reference track that was parallel to the continental shelf. The time-varying environment induced by nonlinear internal waves (NLIWs) was recorded by an array of moored thermistor chains and by X-band radars from the attending research vessels. Using a mapping technique, the three-dimensional (3D) temperature field for over a month of NLIW events is reconstructed and analyzed to provide a statistical summary of important NLIW parameters, such as the NLIW propagation speed, direction, and amplitude. The results in this paper can be used as a database for studying the NLIW generation, propagation, and fidelity of nonlinear internal wave models.
    Description: This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research Ocean Acoustics Program (322OA) through Grants N00014-10-1-0396 and N00014-11-1-0701.
    Description: 2016-10-18
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Continental shelf/slope ; North America ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Data processing ; In situ oceanic observations ; Sampling ; Mathematical and statistical techniques ; Statistics
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 29 (2016): 3647-3660, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0626.1.
    Description: An assessment is made of the mean and variability of the net air–sea heat flux, Qnet, from four products (ECCO, OAFlux–CERES, ERA-Interim, and NCEP1) over the global ice-free ocean from January 2001 to December 2010. For the 10-yr “hiatus” period, all products agree on an overall net heat gain over the global ice-free ocean, but the magnitude varies from 1.7 to 9.5 W m−2. The differences among products are particularly large in the Southern Ocean, where they cannot even agree on whether the region gains or loses heat on the annual mean basis. Decadal trends of Qnet differ significantly between products. ECCO and OAFlux–CERES show almost no trend, whereas ERA-Interim suggests a downward trend and NCEP1 shows an upward trend. Therefore, numerical simulations utilizing different surface flux forcing products will likely produce diverged trends of the ocean heat content during this period. The downward trend in ERA-Interim started from 2006, driven by a peculiar pattern change in the tropical regions. ECCO, which used ERA-Interim as initial surface forcings and is constrained by ocean dynamics and ocean observations, corrected the pattern. Among the four products, ECCO and OAFlux–CERES show great similarities in the examined spatial and temporal patterns. Given that the two estimates were obtained using different approaches and based on largely independent observations, these similarities are encouraging and instructive. It is more likely that the global net air–sea heat flux does not change much during the so-called hiatus period.
    Description: This paper is funded in part by the NOAA Climate Observation Division, Climate Program Office, under Grant NA09OAR4320129 and by the NOAA MAPP Climate Reanalysis Task Force Team under Grant NA13OAR4310106. The study was initiated when X. Liang was a postdoc at MIT, where he was supported in part by the NSF through Grant OCE-0961713, by NOAA through Grant NA10OAR4310135, and by the NASA Physical Oceanography Program through ECCO.
    Description: 2016-11-15
    Keywords: Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Heat budgets/fluxes ; Surface fluxes ; Models and modeling ; Reanalysis data ; Variability ; Climate variability ; Interannual variability ; Seasonal variability
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 1356–1375, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-13-0259.1.
    Description: Eddy–mean flow interactions along the Kuroshio Extension (KE) jet are investigated using a vorticity budget of a high-resolution ocean model simulation, averaged over a 13-yr period. The simulation explicitly resolves mesoscale eddies in the KE and is forced with air–sea fluxes representing the years 1995–2007. A mean-eddy decomposition in a jet-following coordinate system removes the variability of the jet path from the eddy components of velocity; thus, eddy kinetic energy in the jet reference frame is substantially lower than in geographic coordinates and exhibits a cross-jet asymmetry that is consistent with the baroclinic instability criterion of the long-term mean field. The vorticity budget is computed in both geographic (i.e., Eulerian) and jet reference frames; the jet frame budget reveals several patterns of eddy forcing that are largely attributed to varicose modes of variability. Eddies tend to diffuse the relative vorticity minima/maxima that flank the jet, removing momentum from the fast-moving jet core and reinforcing the quasi-permanent meridional meanders in the mean jet. A pattern associated with the vertical stretching of relative vorticity in eddies indicates a deceleration (acceleration) of the jet coincident with northward (southward) quasi-permanent meanders. Eddy relative vorticity advection outside of the eastward jet core is balanced mostly by vertical stretching of the mean flow, which through baroclinic adjustment helps to drive the flanking recirculation gyres. The jet frame vorticity budget presents a well-defined picture of eddy activity, illustrating along-jet variations in eddy–mean flow interaction that may have implications for the jet’s dynamics and cross-frontal tracer fluxes.
    Description: A. S. Delman (ASD) and J. L. McClean (JLM) were supported by NSF Grant OCE-0850463 and Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant DE-FG02-05ER64119. ASD and J. Sprintall were also supported by a NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship (NESSF), Grant NNX13AM93H. JLM was also supported by U.S. DOE Office of Science grant entitled “Ultra-High Resolution Global Climate Simulation” via a Los Alamos National Laboratory subcontract. S. R. Jayne was supported by NSF Grant OCE-0849808. Computational resources for the model run were provided by NSF Resource Grants TG-OCE110013 and TG-OCE130010.
    Description: 2015-11-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; North Pacific Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Forcing ; Instability ; Mesoscale processes ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Jets ; Models and modeling ; General circulation models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 4653–4687, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1.
    Description: Downscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth. While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMM growing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°–4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southern Australia across models is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.
    Description: This work was initiated at the Dissertations Initiative for the Advancement of Climate Change Research (DISCCRS) V Symposium, supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation through collaborative Grants SES-0932916 and SES-0931402. CCU was supported by a University of New South Wales Vice-Chancellor Fellowship and the Penzance Endowed Fund and John P. Chase Memorial Endowed Fund at WHOI. TET was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Award DE-EE0004397. NC was funded by NSF Grant EAR-1204774. We are indebted to the FORMAS-funded Land Use Today and Tomorrow (LUsTT) project (Grant 211-2009-1682) for financial support.
    Keywords: Australia ; North America ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climate variability ; Agriculture
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 7659–7677, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0007.1.
    Description: Maximum covariance analysis of a preindustrial control simulation of the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), shows that a barotropic signal in winter broadly resembling a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) follows an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) by about 7 yr. The delay is due to the cyclonic propagation along the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and the subpolar gyre of a SST warming linked to a northward shift and intensification of the NAC, together with an increasing SST cooling linked to increasing southward advection of subpolar water along the western boundary and a southward shift of the Gulf Stream (GS). These changes result in a meridional SST dipole, which follows the AMOC intensification after 6 or 7 yr. The SST changes were initiated by the strengthening of the western subpolar gyre and by bottom torque at the crossover of the deep branches of the AMOC with the NAC on the western flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the GS near the Tail of the Grand Banks, respectively. The heat flux damping of the SST dipole shifts the region of maximum atmospheric transient eddy growth southward, leading to a negative NAO-like response. No significant atmospheric response is found to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), which is broadly realistic but shifted south and associated with a much weaker meridional SST gradient than the AMOC fingerprint. Nonetheless, the wintertime atmospheric response to the AMOC shows some similarity with the observed response to the AMO, suggesting that the ocean–atmosphere interactions are broadly realistic in CCSM4.
    Description: Support from the NOAA Climate Program Office (NA10OAR4310202 and NA13OAR4310139), NSF EaSM2 (OCE 1242989) and the European Community 7th framework programme (FP7 2007-2013) under Grant Agreement 308299 (NACLIM) is gratefully acknowledged. The analysis benefited from the IPSL Prodiguer-Ciclad facility, which is supported by CNRS, UPMC, Labex L-IPSL funded by the ANR (Grant ANR-10-LABX-0018) and by the European FP7 IS-ENES2 project (Grant 312979).
    Description: 2016-04-01
    Keywords: Meridional overturning circulation ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Climate models ; Climate variability
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 29 (2016): 6201-6221, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0694.1.
    Description: Anomalous conditions in the tropical oceans, such as those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole, have been previously blamed for extended droughts and wet periods in Australia. Yet the extent to which Australian wet and dry spells can be driven by internal atmospheric variability remains unclear. Natural variability experiments are examined to determine whether prolonged extreme wet and dry periods can arise from internal atmospheric and land variability alone. Results reveal that this is indeed the case; however, these dry and wet events are found to be less severe than in simulations incorporating coupled oceanic variability. Overall, ocean feedback processes increase the magnitude of Australian rainfall variability by about 30% and give rise to more spatially coherent rainfall impacts. Over mainland Australia, ocean interactions lead to more frequent extreme events, particularly during the rainy season. Over Tasmania, in contrast, ocean–atmosphere coupling increases mean rainfall throughout the year. While ocean variability makes Australian rainfall anomalies more severe, droughts and wet spells of duration longer than three years are equally likely to occur in both atmospheric- and ocean-driven simulations. Moreover, they are essentially indistinguishable from what one expects from a Gaussian white noise distribution. Internal atmosphere–land-driven megadroughts and megapluvials that last as long as ocean-driven events are also identified in the simulations. This suggests that oceanic variability may be less important than previously assumed for the long-term persistence of Australian rainfall anomalies. This poses a challenge to accurate prediction of long-term dry and wet spells for Australia.
    Description: This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) under ARC-DP1094784, ARC-DP-150101331, ARC-FL100100214, and funding for C.C.U. from the National Science Foundation under AGS-1602455 and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.
    Description: 2017-02-19
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Drought ; Precipitation ; Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Climate variability ; Forecasting ; Climate prediction ; Variability
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 551-568, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0047.1.
    Description: There exists a good deal of indirect evidence, from several locations around the world, that there is a substantial eddy field over continental shelves. These eddies appear to have typical swirl velocities of a few centimeters per second and have horizontal scales of perhaps 5–10 km. These eddies are weak compared to typical, wind-driven, alongshore flows but often seem to dominate middepth cross-shelf flows. The idea that motivates the present contribution is that the alongshore wind stress ultimately energizes these eddies by means of baroclinic instabilities, even in cases where obvious intense fronts do not exist. The proposed sequence is that alongshore winds over a stratified ocean cause upwelling or downwelling, and the resulting horizontal density gradients are strong enough to fuel baroclinic instabilities of the requisite energy levels. This idea is explored here by means of a sequence of idealized primitive equation numerical model studies, each driven by a modest, nearly steady, alongshore wind stress applied for about 5–10 days. Different runs vary wind forcing, stratification, bottom slope, bottom friction, and Coriolis parameter. All runs, both upwelling and downwelling, are found to be baroclinically unstable and to have scales compatible with the underlying hypothesis. The model results, combined with physically based scalings, show that eddy kinetic energy generally increases with bottom slope, stratification, wind impulse (time integral of the wind stress), and inverse Coriolis parameter. The dominant length scale of the eddies is found to increase with increasing eddy kinetic energy and to decrease with Coriolis parameter.
    Description: This work was supported by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and by the National Science Foundation, Physical Oceanography section through Grant OCE-1433953.
    Description: 2016-06-09
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Continental shelf/slope ; Variability ; Oceanic variability
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 1309-1321, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0068.1.
    Description: Direct measurements of oceanic turbulent parameters were taken upstream of and across Drake Passage, in the region of the Subantarctic and Polar Fronts. Values of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate ε estimated by microstructure are up to two orders of magnitude lower than previously published estimates in the upper 1000 m. Turbulence levels in Drake Passage are systematically higher than values upstream, regardless of season. The dissipation of thermal variance χ is enhanced at middepth throughout the surveys, with the highest values found in northern Drake Passage, where water mass variability is the most pronounced. Using the density ratio, evidence for double-diffusive instability is presented. Subject to double-diffusive physics, the estimates of diffusivity using the Osborn–Cox method are larger than ensemble statistics based on ε and the buoyancy frequency.
    Description: This work was supported by grants from the U.S. National Science Foundation.
    Description: 2016-10-05
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Southern Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diapycnal mixing ; Mixing ; Turbulence ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Fronts ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Profilers, oceanic
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 417-437, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0055.1.
    Description: In the stratified ocean, turbulent mixing is primarily attributed to the breaking of internal waves. As such, internal waves provide a link between large-scale forcing and small-scale mixing. The internal wave field north of the Kerguelen Plateau is characterized using 914 high-resolution hydrographic profiles from novel Electromagnetic Autonomous Profiling Explorer (EM-APEX) floats. Altogether, 46 coherent features are identified in the EM-APEX velocity profiles and interpreted in terms of internal wave kinematics. The large number of internal waves analyzed provides a quantitative framework for characterizing spatial variations in the internal wave field and for resolving generation versus propagation dynamics. Internal waves observed near the Kerguelen Plateau have a mean vertical wavelength of 200 m, a mean horizontal wavelength of 15 km, a mean period of 16 h, and a mean horizontal group velocity of 3 cm s−1. The internal wave characteristics are dependent on regional dynamics, suggesting that different generation mechanisms of internal waves dominate in different dynamical zones. The wave fields in the Subantarctic/Subtropical Front and the Polar Front Zone are influenced by the local small-scale topography and flow strength. The eddy-wave field is influenced by the large-scale flow structure, while the internal wave field in the Subantarctic Zone is controlled by atmospheric forcing. More importantly, the local generation of internal waves not only drives large-scale dissipation in the frontal region but also downstream from the plateau. Some internal waves in the frontal region are advected away from the plateau, contributing to mixing and stratification budgets elsewhere.
    Description: A.M. was supported by the joint CSIRO-University of Tasmania Quantitative Marine Science (QMS) program and the 2009 CSIRO Wealth from Ocean Flagship Collaborative Fund. K.L.P.’s salary support was provided by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution bridge support funds. B.M.S. was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program.
    Description: 2016-06-07
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Southern Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Internal waves ; Mixing ; Wave properties ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; In situ oceanic observations ; Profilers, oceanic
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 569-582, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0048.1.
    Description: Continental shelf baroclinic instability energized by fluctuating alongshore winds is treated using idealized primitive equation numerical model experiments. A spatially uniform alongshore wind, sinusoidal in time, alternately drives upwelling and downwelling and so creates highly variable, but slowly increasing, available potential energy. For all of the 30 model runs, conducted with a wide range of parameters (varying Coriolis parameter, initial stratification, bottom friction, forcing period, wind strength, and bottom slope), a baroclinic instability and subsequent eddy field develop. Model results and scalings show that the eddy kinetic energy increases with wind amplitude, forcing period, stratification, and bottom slope. The dominant alongshore length scale of the eddy field is essentially an internal Rossby radius of deformation. The resulting depth-averaged alongshore flow field is dominated by the large-scale, periodic wind forcing, while the cross-shelf flow field is dominated by the eddy variability. The result is that correlation length scales for alongshore flow are far greater than those for cross-shelf velocity. This scale discrepancy is qualitatively consistent with midshelf observations by Kundu and Allen, among others.
    Description: This work was funded by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and by the National Science Foundation, Physical Oceanography section through Grant OCE-1433953.
    Description: 2016-06-09
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Continental shelf/slope ; Variability ; Oceanic variability
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  • 20
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    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 1277-1284, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0027.1.
    Description: The contemporary Arctic Ocean differs markedly from midlatitude, ice-free, and relatively warm oceans in the context of density-compensating temperature and salinity variations. These variations are invaluable tracers in the midlatitudes, revealing essential fundamental physical processes of the oceans, on scales from millimeters to thousands of kilometers. However, in the cold Arctic Ocean, temperature variations have little effect on density, and a measure of density-compensating variations in temperature and salinity (i.e., spiciness) is not appropriate. In general, temperature is simply a passive tracer, which implies that most of the heat transported in the Arctic Ocean relies entirely on the ocean dynamics determined by the salinity field. It is shown, however, that as the Arctic Ocean warms up, temperature will take on a new role in setting dynamical balances. Under continued warming, there exists the possibility for a regime shift in the mechanisms by which heat is transported in the Arctic Ocean. This may result in a cap on the storage of deep-ocean heat, having profound implications for future predictions of Arctic sea ice.
    Description: Support was provided by the National Science Foundation Division of Polar Programs Award 1350046 and Office of Naval Research Grant Number N00014-12-1-0110.
    Description: 2016-10-05
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Arctic ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Ocean dynamics
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 1717-1734, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0124.1.
    Description: The contribution of warm-core anticyclones shed by the Irminger Current off West Greenland, known as Irminger rings, to the restratification of the upper layers of the Labrador Sea is investigated in the 1/12° Family of Linked Atlantic Models Experiment (FLAME) model. The model output, covering the 1990–2004 period, shows strong similarities to observations of the Irminger Current as well as ring observations at a mooring located offshore of the eddy formation region in 2007–09. An analysis of fluxes in the model shows that while the majority of heat exchange with the interior indeed occurs at the site of the Irminger Current instability, the contribution of the coherent Irminger rings is modest (18%). Heat is provided to the convective region mainly through noncoherent anomalies and enhanced local mixing by the rings facilitating further exchange between the boundary and interior. The time variability of the eddy kinetic energy and the boundary to interior heat flux in the model are strongly correlated to the density gradient between the dense convective region and the more buoyant boundary current. In FLAME, the density variations of the boundary current are larger than those of the convective region, thereby largely controlling changes in lateral fluxes. Synchronous long-term trends in temperature in the boundary and the interior over the 15-yr simulation suggest that the heat flux relative to the temperature of the interior is largely steady on these time scales.
    Description: The authors were supported in this work by the U.S. National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; North Atlantic Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Anticyclones ; Boundary currents ; Convection ; Eddies ; Fluxes
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 29 (2016): 1545-1571, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0509.1.
    Description: Three sediment records of sea surface temperature (SST) are analyzed that originate from distant locations in the North Atlantic, have centennial-to-multicentennial resolution, are based on the same reconstruction method and chronological assumptions, and span the past 15 000 yr. Using recursive least squares techniques, an estimate of the time-dependent North Atlantic SST field over the last 15 kyr is sought that is consistent with both the SST records and a surface ocean circulation model, given estimates of their respective error (co)variances. Under the authors’ assumptions about data and model errors, it is found that the 10°C mixed layer isotherm, which approximately traces the modern Subpolar Front, would have moved by ~15° of latitude southward (northward) in the eastern North Atlantic at the onset (termination) of the Younger Dryas cold interval (YD), a result significant at the level of two standard deviations in the isotherm position. In contrast, meridional movements of the isotherm in the Newfoundland basin are estimated to be small and not significant. Thus, the isotherm would have pivoted twice around a region southeast of the Grand Banks, with a southwest–northeast orientation during the warm intervals of the Bølling–Allerød and the Holocene and a more zonal orientation and southerly position during the cold interval of the YD. This study provides an assessment of the significance of similar previous inferences and illustrates the potential of recursive least squares in paleoceanography.
    Description: OM acknowledges support from the U.S. National Science Foundation. CW acknowledges support from the European Research Council ERC Grant ACCLIMATE 339108.
    Description: 2016-08-19
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; North Atlantic Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Fronts ; Mathematical and statistical techniques ; Inverse methods ; Kalman filters ; Variability ; Climate variability ; Oceanic variability
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 76(10), (2019): 3013-3027, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-19-0095.1.
    Description: Recently Nakamura and Huang proposed a semiempirical, one-dimensional model of atmospheric blocking based on the observed budget of local wave activity in the boreal winter. The model dynamics is akin to that of traffic flow, wherein blocking manifests as traffic jams when the streamwise flux of local wave activity reaches capacity. Stationary waves modulate the jet stream’s capacity to transmit transient waves and thereby localize block formation. Since the model is inexpensive to run numerically, it is suited for computing blocking statistics as a function of climate variables from large-ensemble, parameter sweep experiments. We explore sensitivity of blocking statistics to (i) stationary wave amplitude, (ii) background jet speed, and (iii) transient eddy forcing, using frequency, persistence, and prevalence as metrics. For each combination of parameters we perform 240 runs of 180-day simulations with aperiodic transient eddy forcing, each time randomizing the phase relations in forcing. The model climate shifts rapidly from a block-free state to a block-dominant state as the stationary wave amplitude is increased and/or the jet speed is decreased. When eddy forcing is increased, prevalence increases similarly but frequency decreases as blocks merge and become more persistent. It is argued that the present-day climate lies close to the boundary of the two states and hence its blocking statistics are sensitive to climate perturbations. The result underscores the low confidence in GCM-based assessment of the future trend of blocking under a changing climate, while it also provides a theoretical basis for evaluating model biases and understanding trends in reanalysis data.
    Description: The main results of this paper emerged from a group project during Rossbypalooza, a student-led summer school at the University of Chicago in June 2018, with the theme of “Understanding climate through simple models.” The authors thank the participants of the summer school for their valuable feedback. Constructive criticisms of the two anonymous reviewers greatly improved the quality of the manuscript. The work is supported by NSF Grants AGS1563307 and AGS1810964
    Keywords: Blocking ; Nonlinear dynamics ; Planetary waves ; Potential vorticity ; Wave breaking ; Climate variability
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 31 (2018): 4309-4327, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0407.1.
    Description: Multidecadal hydroclimate variability has been expressed as “megadroughts” (dry periods more severe and prolonged than observed over the twentieth century) and corresponding “megapluvial” wet periods in many regions around the world. The risk of such events is strongly affected by modes of coupled atmosphere–ocean variability and by external impacts on climate. Accurately assessing the mechanisms for these interactions is difficult, since it requires large ensembles of millennial simulations as well as long proxy time series. Here, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble is used to examine statistical associations among megaevents, coupled climate modes, and forcing from major volcanic eruptions. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly affects hydroclimate extremes: larger ENSO amplitude reduces megadrought risk and persistence in the southwestern United States, the Sahel, monsoon Asia, and Australia, with corresponding increases in Mexico and the Amazon. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) also alters megadrought risk, primarily in the Caribbean and the Amazon. Volcanic influences are felt primarily through enhancing AMO amplitude, as well as alterations in the structure of both ENSO and AMO teleconnections, which lead to differing manifestations of megadrought. These results indicate that characterizing hydroclimate variability requires an improved understanding of both volcanic climate impacts and variations in ENSO/AMO teleconnections.
    Description: This work is supported by NSF EaSM Grants AGS-1243125 and NCAR-1243107 to The University of Arizona.
    Description: 2018-11-03
    Keywords: Drought ; Climate variability ; ENSO ; Paleoclimate ; Climate models ; Multidecadal variability
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 31 (2018): 8627-8643, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0010.1.
    Description: Drought has severe consequences for humans and their environment, yet we have a limited understanding of the drivers of drought across the full range of time scales on which it occurs. Here, the atmosphere and ocean conditions that drive this continuum of drought variability in southwestern North America (SWNA) are studied using the latest observationally based products, paleoclimate reconstructions, and state-of-the-art Earth system model simulations of the last millennium. A novel application of the self-organizing maps (SOM) methodology allows for a visualization of the continuum of climate states coinciding with thousands of droughts of varying lengths in last millennium simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS E2-R), and eight other members from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that most droughts are associated with a cool Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) pattern, but persistent droughts can coincide with a variety of ocean–atmosphere states, including time periods showing a warm PDO or weak ocean–atmosphere anomalies. Many CMIP5 models simulate similar SWNA teleconnection patterns, but the SOM analysis demonstrates that models simulate different continuums of ocean–atmosphere states coinciding with droughts of different lengths, suggesting fundamental differences in their drought dynamics. These findings have important implications for our understanding and simulation of the drivers of persistent drought, and for their potential predictability.
    Description: The National Science Foundation EaSM2 Grant (AGS1243125) supported this work.
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Drought ; Paleoclimate ; Ensembles ; General circulation models ; Climate variability
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 9679-9702, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0707.1.
    Description: The North Atlantic atmospheric circulation response to the meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream (GS) path is examined using a large ensemble of high-resolution hemispheric-scale Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations. The model is forced with a broad range of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies derived from a lag regression on a GS index. The primary result of the model experiments, supported in part by an independent analysis of a reanalysis dataset, is that the large-scale quasi-steady North Atlantic circulation response is remarkably nonlinear about the sign and amplitude of the SST anomaly chosen over a wide range of GS shift scenarios. The nonlinear response prevails over the weak linear response and resembles the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the leading intrinsic mode of variability in the model and the observations. Further analysis of the associated dynamics reveals that the nonlinear responses are accompanied by the shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, which is reinforced, with nearly equal importance, by the high-frequency transient eddy feedback and the low-frequency wave-breaking events. Additional sensitivity simulations confirm that the nonlinearity of the circulation response is a robust feature found over the broad parameter space encompassing not only the varied SST but also the absence/presence of tropical influence, the varying lateral boundary conditions, and the initialization scheme. The result highlights the fundamental importance of the intrinsically nonlinear transient eddy dynamics and the eddy–mean flow interactions in generating the nonlinear downstream response to the meridional shifts in the Gulf Stream.
    Description: The authors are grateful for the support from NASA (NNX13AM59G) and the NSF (AGS-1355339, OCE-1419235).
    Description: 2018-05-07
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Blocking ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Regional models ; Climate variability
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 9359–9376, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00228.1.
    Description: Multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is examined based on a comparison of the AMOC streamfunctions in depth and in density space, in a 700-yr present-day control integration of the fully coupled Community Climate System Model, version 3. The commonly used depth-coordinate AMOC primarily exhibits the variability associated with the deep equatorward transport that follows the changes in the Labrador Sea deep water formation. On the other hand, the density-based AMOC emphasizes the variability associated with the subpolar gyre circulation in the upper ocean leading to the changes in the Labrador Sea convection. Combining the two representations indicates that the ~20-yr periodicity of the AMOC variability in the first half of the simulation is primarily due to an ocean-only mode resulting from the coupling of the deep equatorward flow and the upper ocean gyre circulation near the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. In addition, the density-based AMOC reveals a gradual change in the deep ocean associated with cooling and increased density, which is likely responsible for the transition of AMOC variability from strong ~20-yr oscillations to a weaker red noise–like multidecadal variability.
    Description: Support from the NOAA Climate Program Office (Grant NA10OAR4310202 and NA13OAR4310139) and NSF EaSM2 (OCE1242989) is gratefully acknowledged.
    Description: 2015-06-15
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Ocean circulation ; Thermocline circulation ; Climate variability ; Multidecadal variability
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