ALBERT

Description: This article is devoted to the study of the ASARCO demolition seismic data. Two different classes of modeling techniques are explored: First, mathematical interpolation methods and second statistical smoothing approaches for curve fitting. We estimate the characteristic parameters of the propagation medium for seismic waves with multiple mathematical and statistical techniques, and provide the relative advantages of each approach to address fitting of such data. We conclude that mathematical interpolation techniques and statistical curve fitting techniques complement each other and can add value to the study of one dimensional time series seismographic data: they can be use to add more data to the system in case the data set is not large enough to perform standard statistical tests.

Description: Taking into consideration both shipping and pipeline transport, this paper first analysed the risk factors for different modes of crude oil import transportation. Then, based on the minimum of both transportation cost and overall risk, a multi-objective programming model was established to optimize the transportation network of crude oil import, and the genetic algorithm and ant colony algorithm were employed to solve the problem. The optimized result shows that VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) is superior in long distance sea transportation, whereas pipeline transport is more secure than sea transport. Finally, this paper provides related safeguard suggestions on crude oil import transportation.

Description: This paper presents a new biometric score fusion approach in an identification system using the upper integral with respect to Sugeno’s fuzzy measure. First, the proposed method considers each individual matcher as a fuzzy set in order to handle uncertainty and imperfection in matching scores. Then, the corresponding fuzzy entropy estimates the reliability of the information provided by each biometric matcher. Next, the fuzzy densities are generated based on rank information and training accuracy. Finally, the results are aggregated using the upper fuzzy integral. Experimental results compared with other fusion methods demonstrate the good performance of the proposed approach.

Description: In Southeast Asia land use change associated with forest loss and degradation is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is of particular concern where deforestation occurs on peat soils. A business-as-usual (BAU) land change model was developed using Dinamica EGO© for a REDD+ Demonstration Activity area in south-east Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia containing Berbak National Park (NP). The model output will be used as baseline land change predictions for comparison with alternative land cover management scenarios as part of a REDD+ feasibility study. The study area is approximately 376,000 ha with approximately 50% on peat soils. The model uses published 2000 and 2010 land cover maps as input and projects land cover change for thirty years until 2040. The model predicted that under a BAU scenario the forest area, 185,000 ha in 2010, will decline by 37% by 2040. In protected forest areas, approximately 50% of the study area, forest cover will reduce by 25%. Peat swamp forest will reduce by almost 37%. The greatest land cover category increases are plantation/regrowth areas (which includes oil palm) and open areas which each increase by 30,000 ha. These results indicate that the site has great potential as an Indonesian REDD+ Demonstration Activity.

Description: Sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) was measured continuously in a transect of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre between Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic (18.1° N, 68.5° W) and Vigo, Spain (41.9° N, 11.8° W) during spring 2011. Additional biogeochemical and physical variables measured to identify factors controlling the surface pCO2 were analyzed in discrete samples collected at 16 sites along the transect at the surface and to a depth of 200 m. Sea surface pCO2 varied between 309 and 662 μatm, and showed differences between the western and eastern subtropical gyre. The subtropical gyre acted as a net CO2 sink, with a mean flux of −5.5 ± 2.2 mmol m−2 day−1. The eastern part of the transect, close to the North Atlantic Iberian upwelling off the Galician coast, was a CO2 source with an average flux of 33.5 ± 9.0 mmol m−2 day−1. Our results highlight the importance of making more surface pCO2 observations in the area located east of the Azores Islands since air-sea CO2 fluxes there are poorly studied.

Description: Root-operator factorization à la Dirac provides an effective tool to deal with equations, which are not of evolution type, or are ruled by fractional differential operators, thus eventually yielding evolution-like equations although for a multicomponent vector. We will review the method along with its extension to root operators of degree higher than two. Also, we will show the results obtained by the Dirac-method as well as results from other methods, specifically in connection with evolution-like equations ruled by square-root operators, that we will address to as relativistic evolution equations.

Description: Although globotetraosylceramide (Gb4) is only recognized by a single member of the verotoxin family namely, the pig edema disease toxin (VT2e), removal of the acetyl group from the terminal N-acetyl hexosamine of Gb4 to generate the free amino sugar containing species (aminoGb4) results in the generation of a glycolipid preferentially recognized by all members of the verotoxin family (i.e., VT1, VT2, VT2c, and VT2e). GT3, a site-specific mutant of VT2e, in which Gb4 recognition is lost but Gb3 binding is retained, also binds aminoGb4. We have now compared the binding of VT1, VT2, VT2e, and GT3 to a series of aminoGb4 derivatives using a TLC overlay technique. DimethylaminoGb4 is bound by VT1 and VT2 but not VT2e or GT3; formylaminoGb4 binds all toxins but poorly to VT2 and preferentially VT2e; trifluoroacetylaminoGb4 binds only VT2e and GT3; isopropylaminoGb4 binds VT1 and poorly to VT2; benzylaminoGb4 binds all four toxins. Thus, there is a marked distinction between the permissible amino substitutions for VT1 and VT2e binding. GT3 is a hybrid between these in that, according to the substitution, it behaves similarly either to VT1 or to VT2e. For each species, GT3 does not however, show a hybrid binding between that of VT1 and VT2e. Analysis of the binding as a function of pH shows opposite effects for VT1 and VT2e: decreased pH increases VT1, but decreases VT2e receptor glycolipid binding.

Description: Phys and Math are two colleagues at the University of Saçenbon (Crefan Kingdom), dialoguing about the remarkable efficiency of mathematics for physics. They talk about the notches on the Ishango bone and the various uses of psi in maths and physics; they arrive at dessins d’enfants, moonshine concepts, Rademacher sums and their significance in the quantum world. You should not miss their eccentric proposal of relating Bell’s theorem to the Baby Monster group. Their hyperbolic polygons show a considerable singularity/cusp structure that our modern age of computers is able to capture. Henri Poincaré would have been happy to see it.

Description: The isomorphism of Karoubi-Villamayor K-groups with smooth K-groups for monoid algebras over quasi stable locally convex algebras is established. We prove that the Quillen K-groups are isomorphic to smooth K-groups for monoid algebras over quasi-stable Frechet algebras having a properly uniformly bounded approximate unit and not necessarily m-convex. Based on these results the K-regularity property for quasi-stable Frechet algebras having a properly uniformly bounded approximate unit is established.

Description: In this paper, we study the valuation of stochastic cash flows that exhibit dependence on interest rates. We focus on insurance liability cash flows linked to an index, such as a consumer price index or wage index, where changes in the index value can be partially understood in terms of changes in the term structure of interest rates. Insurance liability cash flows that are not explicitly linked to an index may still be valued in our framework by interpreting index returns as so-called claims inflation, i.e., an increase in claims cost per sold insurance contract. We focus primarily on the case when a deep and liquid market for index-linked contracts is absent or when the market price data are unreliable. Firstly, we present an approach for assigning a monetary value to a stochastic cash flow that does not require full knowledge of the joint dynamics of the cash flow and the term structure of interest rates. Secondly, we investigate in detail model selection, estimation and validation in a Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework. Finally, we analyze the effects of model uncertainty on the valuation of the cash flows and how forecasts of cash flows and interest rates translate into model parameters and affect the valuation.

Description: It is well known that the Low-Voltage DC (LVDC) distribution system is a promising topology as a future smart distribution system due to its high efficiency and reliability. However, there are still some challenges in the construction and implementation of an LVDC system. For practical application of the LVDC system, therefore, it is necessary to perform any simulation in advance by considering various conditions that can occur in an LVDC system. In order to provide a foundation for analyzing a DC system, this paper presents an LVDC distribution system model including essential components such as power electronic devices, Distributed Energy Resource (DER), and Energy Storage System (ESS), which can be considered for implementation in an LVDC system using Electro-Magnetic Transient Program (EMTP) software. Moreover, an analysis of the characteristic in both the steady state and the transient state is conducted in an LVDC distribution system.

Description: Jordan is characterized as a “water scarce” country. Therefore, conserving ecosystem services such as water regulation and soil retention is challenging. In Jordan, rainwater harvesting has been adapted to meet those challenges. However, the spatial composition and configuration features of a target landscape are rarely considered when selecting a rainwater-harvesting site. This study aimed to introduce landscape spatial features into the schemes for selecting a proper water-harvesting site. Landscape metrics analysis was used to quantify 10 metrics for three potential landscapes (i.e., Watershed 104 (WS 104), Watershed 59 (WS 59), and Watershed 108 (WS 108)) located in the Jordanian Badia region. Results of the metrics analysis showed that the three non–vegetative land cover types in the three landscapes were highly suitable for serving as rainwater harvesting sites. Furthermore, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to prioritize the fitness of the three target sites by comparing their landscape metrics. Results of AHP indicate that the non-vegetative land cover in the WS 104 landscape was the most suitable site for rainwater harvesting intervention, based on its dominance, connectivity, shape, and low degree of fragmentation. Our study advances the water harvesting network design by considering its landscape spatial pattern.

Description: Since the 90s, several studies were conducted to evaluate the predictability of the Sahelian rainy season and propose seasonal rainfall forecasts to help stakeholders to take the adequate decisions to adapt with the predicted situation. Unfortunately, two decades later, the forecasting skills remains low and forecasts have a limited value for decision making while the population is still suffering from rainfall interannual variability: this shows the limit of commonly used predictors and forecast approaches for this region. Thus, this paper developed and tested new predictors and new approaches to predict the upcoming seasonal rainfall amount over the Sirba watershed. Predictors selected through a linear correlation analysis were further processed using combined linear methods to identify those having high predictive power. Seasonal rainfall was forecasted using a set of linear and non-linear models. An average lag time up to eight months was obtained for all models. It is found that the combined linear methods performed better than non-linear, possibly because non-linear models require larger and better datasets for calibration. The R2, Nash and Hit rate score are respectively 0.53, 0.52, and 68% for the combined linear approach; and 0.46, 0.45, 61% for non-linear principal component analysis.

Description: Despite scientific progress in operationalizing sustainable development (SD), it is still hampered by methodological challenges at the regional level. We developed a framework to analyse stakeholder based, SD targets for future land use, which are characterized by different impact levels and spatial references. The framework allows for the analysis of land use demands in the context of SD. We identified societal use targets in north-eastern Germany, particularly for the area type’s lowland fens and irrigation fields, represented through strategy documents. We used frame analysis to aggregate and condense the targets into land use claims. Results present a framework for the ex-ante Sustainability Impact Assessment of land use changes at the regional level and the determination and regionalization of the future societal demand for land use functions. For future land use at the regional level, manifold land use claims exist, but on smaller scales, area-specific targets are less apparent. Six key main-use claims and 44 side-use claims were identified at the regional level and for area types. Possible trade-offs among land use claims for land use functions can be identified at each governance level. Implications of the methodological approach are discussed according to moving development targets and SD as multi-sector and multi-level governance issues.

Description: This paper develops an extended financial stress measure that considers the supervisory objective of identifying risks to the stability of the financial system. The measure provides a continuous and bounded signal of financial stress using daily public market data. Broad coverage of material financial system markets over time is achieved by leveraging dynamic credit weights. We consider how this measure can be used to monitor, analyze, and alert financial system stress.

Description: The relationship between lateral erosion of salt marshes and wind waves is studied in Hog Island Bay, Virginia USA, with high-resolution field measurements and aerial photographs. Marsh retreat is compared to wave climate calculated in the bay using the spectral wave-model Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN). We confirm the existence of a linear relationship between long-term salt marsh erosion and wave energy, and show that wave power can serve as a good proxy for average salt-marsh erosion rates. At each site, erosion rates are consistent across several temporal scales, ranging from months to decades, and are strongly related to wave power. On the contrary, erosion rates vary in space and weakly depend on the spatial distribution of wave energy. We ascribe this variability to spatial variations in geotechnical, biological, and morphological marsh attributes. Our detailed field measurements indicate that at a small spatial scale (tens of meters), a positive feedback between salt marsh geometry and wave action causes erosion rates to increase with boundary sinuosity. However, at the scale of the entire marsh boundary (hundreds of meters), this relationship is reversed: those sites that are more rapidly eroding have a marsh boundary which is significantly smoother than the marsh boundary of sheltered and slowly eroding marshes.

Description: Environmental and health safety of recycled slaughterhouse wastes-derived fertilizer and the produce obtained through its application is not well understood. Waste bovine blood and rumen digesta were mixed, cooked and sun-dried to obtain bovine-blood-and-rumen-digesta-mixture (BBRDM, NPK 30.36:1:5.75). 1.26 ± 0.18 log CFU mL−1 fecal coliforms were recovered in BBRDM. E. coli O157:H7, Mycobacteria, Clostridium sp., Salmonella sp., Bacillus sp. and Brucella sp. were absent. No re-growth of pathogens was observed after 60 days storage in sealed bags and in the open. However, prions and viruses were not evaluated. Heavy metals (Pb, Cr, Cd, Cu, Zn, As, Ni, Mn) concentrations in BBRDM were within internationally permissible limits. BBRDM was applied for field cultivation of tomato during 2012–2013 and 2013–2014. Lycopene and nitrate contents of BBRDM-grown tomatoes were higher than Diammonium phosphate (DAP) + potash-grown tomatoes because BBRDM supplied 2.5 times more the amount of nitrogen than DAP (NPK 18:46:0) + potash (NPK 0:0:44). Heavy metals and nitrate/nitrite concentrations in tomatoes were within internationally acceptable limits. BBRDM-grown tomatoes showed no mutagenic activity in the Ames test. Sub-acute toxicity tests on Wistar rats fed with BBRDM-grown tomatoes did not show adverse clinical picture. Thus, no immediate environmental or health risks associated with BBRDM and the tomatoes produced were identified.

Description: It is known that properties of activated biochars are tightly associated with those of the original feedstock as well as pyrolysis and activation conditions. This study examined two feedstock types, pine wood shavings and chicken litter, to produce biochars at two different pyrolysis temperatures and subsequently activated by steam, acid or base. In order to measure activation efficiency, all materials were characterized for their properties and ability to remediate two well-known heavy metals of concern: copper and arsenic. Base activated biochars were superior in arsenic adsorption, to acid or steam activated samples, but increase in adsorption was not significant to warrant use. For wood biochars, significant increases of surface functionality as related to oxygen bearing groups and surface charge were observed upon acid activation which led to increased copper ion adsorption. However, oxygen bearing functionalities were not sufficient to explain why chicken litter biochars and steam activated biochars appeared to be significantly superior to wood shavings in positively charged metal ion adsorption. For chicken litter, functionality of respective biochars could be related to phosphate containing groups inherited from feedstock composition, favorably positioning this feedstock in metal ion remediation applications.

Description: This paper develops a financial stress measure for the United States, the Cleveland Financial Stress Index (CFSI). The index is based on publicly available data describing a six-market partition of the financial system comprising credit, funding, real estate, securitization, foreign exchange, and equity markets. This paper improves upon existing stress measures by objectively selecting between several index weighting methodologies across a variety of monitoring frequencies through comparison against a volatility-based benchmark series. The resulting measure facilitates the decomposition of stress to identify disruptions in specific markets and provides insight into historical stress regimes.

Description: Rural livelihoods and the land systems on which they depend are increasingly influenced by distant markets through economic globalization. Place-based analyses of land and livelihood system sustainability must then consider both proximate and distant influences on local decision-making. Thus, advancing land change theory in the context of economic globalization calls for a systematic understanding of the general processes as well as local contingencies shaping local responses to global signals. Synthesis of insights from place-based case studies is a path forward for developing such systematic knowledge. This paper introduces a generalized agent-based modeling framework for model-based synthesis to investigate the relative importance of structural versus agent-level factors in driving land-use and livelihood responses to changing global market signals. Six case-study sites that differed in environmental conditions, market access and influence, and livelihood settings were analyzed. Stronger market signals generally led to intensification and/or expansion of agriculture or increased non-farm labor, while changes in agents’ risk attitudes prompted heterogeneous local responses to global market signals. These results demonstrate model-based synthesis as a promising approach to overcome many of the challenges of current synthesis methods in land change science and identify generalized as well as locally contingent responses to global market signals.

Description: Climate change impacts local agricultural systems in detectable and distinguishable ways from large-scale shifts in water, land, and weather patterns to regionally specific distributions of weeds, pests, and diseases. Best management practices for adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate change include modifications to farm production through adjusted intensity and product types and changing land use through crop siting and tillage practices. Farmer perceptions of risk and profitability of best management practices are key determinants of adoption, which traditional incentive programs like the Environmental Quality Incentive Program attempt to address by providing financial and technical support. To ensure that payments offered through these programs that maximize adoption, regional incentive payments must be based upon locally established costs. This paper focuses on the cost of implementing and maintaining climate change specific best management practices (CCBMPs) for twelve diverse farms in Vermont. Specifically, three CCBMPs for Vermont are examined: cover cropping, management intensive rotational grazing (MIRG), and riparian buffer strips. Results show the average cost for cover cropping is $129.24/acre, MIRG is $79.82/acre, and a tree based riparian buffer strip cost $807.33/acre. We conclude that existing incentive payments for cover cropping and MIRG are below costs, likely resulting in under-adoption.

Description: Although olive mill wastewater (OMW) is often applied onto soil and is known to be phytotoxic, its impact on soil fauna is still unknown. The objective of this study was to investigate how OMW spreading in olive orchards affects Oribatida and Collembola communities, physicochemical soil properties and their interdependency. For this, we treated plots in two study sites (Gilat, Bait Reema) with OMW. Among others, the sites differed in irrigation practice, soil type and climate. We observed that soil acidity and water repellency developed to a lower extent in Gilat than in Bait Reema. This may be explained by irrigation-induced dilution and leaching of OMW compounds in Gilat. In Bait Reema, OMW application suppressed emergence of Oribatida and induced a community shift, but the abundance of Collembola increased in OMW and water-treated plots. In Gilat, Oribatida abundance increased after OMW application. The effects of OMW application on soil biota result from an interaction between stimulation of biological activity and suppression of sensitive species by toxic compounds. Environmental and management conditions are relevant for the degree and persistence of the effects. Moreover, this study underlines the need for detailed research on the ecotoxicological effects of OMW at different application rates.

Description: Lost in the debates about the appropriate scale of production to promote agricultural growth in Africa is the rapid expansion of medium-scale farmers. Using Zambia as a case study, this article explores the causes and consequences of this middle-tier transformation on the future of small-scale agriculture. Combining political economic analysis with household survey data, this article examines the relationships between the growth in medium-scale farmers and changing conditions of land access, inequality, and alienation for small-scale farmers. Growth of medium-scale farmers is associated with high land inequality and rapid land alienation in high potential agricultural areas. This growth is shown to be partially driven by wage earner investment in land acquisition and is leading to substantial under-utilization of agricultural land. These processes are both limiting agricultural growth potential and foreclosing future options for an inclusive agricultural development strategy.

Description: A flexible mesh hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate flooding of the LaHave River watershed in Nova Scotia, Canada, from the combined effects of fluvial discharge and ocean tide and surge conditions. The analysis incorporated high-resolution lidar elevation data, bathymetric river and coastal chart data, and river cross-section information. These data were merged to generate a seamless digital elevation model which was used, along with river discharge and tidal elevation data, to run a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to produce flood risk predictions for the watershed. Fine resolution topography data were integrated seamlessly with coarse resolution bathymetry using a series of GIS tools. Model simulations were carried out using DHI Mike 21 Flexible Mesh under a variety of combinations of discharge events and storm surge levels. Discharge events were simulated for events that represent a typical annual maximum runoff and extreme events, while tide and storm surge events were simulated by using the predicted tidal time series and adding 2 and 3 m storm surge events to the ocean level seaward of the mouth of the river. Model output was examined and the maximum water level for the duration of each simulation was extracted and merged into one file that was used in a GIS to map the maximum flood extent and water depth. Upstream areas were most vulnerable to fluvial discharge events, the lower estuary was most vulnerable to the effect of storm surge and sea-level rise, and the Town of Bridgewater was influenced by the combined effects of discharge and storm surge. To facilitate the use of the results for planning officials, GIS flood risk layers were intersected with critical infrastructure, identifying the roads, buildings, and municipal sewage infrastructure at risk under each flood scenario. Roads were converted to points at 10 m spacing for inundated areas and appended with the flood depth calculated from the maximum water level subtracted from the lidar digital elevation model.

Description: Wind-wave contributions to tropical cyclone (TC)-induced extreme sea levels are known to be significant in areas with narrow littoral zones, particularly at oceanic islands. Despite this, little information exists in many of these locations to assess the likelihood of inundation, the relative contribution of wind and wave setup to this inundation, and how it may change with sea level rise (SLR), particularly at scales relevant to coastal infrastructure. In this study, we explore TC-induced extreme sea levels at spatial scales on the order of tens of meters at Apia, the capitol of Samoa, a nation in the tropical South Pacific with typical high-island fringing reef morphology. Ensembles of stochastically generated TCs (based on historical information) are combined with numerical simulations of wind waves, storm-surge, and wave setup to develop high-resolution statistical information on extreme sea levels and local contributions of wind setup and wave setup. The results indicate that storm track and local morphological details lead to local differences in extreme sea levels on the order of 1 m at spatial scales of less than 1 km. Wave setup is the overall largest contributor at most locations; however, wind setup may exceed wave setup in some sheltered bays. When an arbitrary SLR scenario (+1 m) is introduced, overall extreme sea levels are found to modestly decrease relative to SLR, but wave energy near the shoreline greatly increases, consistent with a number of other recent studies. These differences have implications for coastal adaptation strategies.

Description: A Bayesian approach to sediment transport modeling can provide a strong basis for evaluating and propagating model uncertainty, which can be useful in transport applications. Previous work in developing and applying Bayesian sediment transport models used a single grain size fraction or characterized the transport of mixed-size sediment with a single characteristic grain size. Although this approach is common in sediment transport modeling, it precludes the possibility of capturing processes that cause mixed-size sediments to sort and, thereby, alter the grain size available for transport and the transport rates themselves. This paper extends development of a Bayesian transport model from one to k fractional dimensions. The model uses an existing transport function as its deterministic core and is applied to the dataset used to originally develop the function. The Bayesian multi-fraction model is able to infer the posterior distributions for essential model parameters and replicates predictive distributions of both bulk and fractional transport. Further, the inferred posterior distributions are used to evaluate parametric and other sources of variability in relations representing mixed-size interactions in the original model. Successful OPEN ACCESS J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3 1067 development of the model demonstrates that Bayesian methods can be used to provide a robust and rigorous basis for quantifying uncertainty in mixed-size sediment transport. Such a method has heretofore been unavailable and allows for the propagation of uncertainty in sediment transport applications.

Description: Fulvic (FAs) and humic acids (HAs) are chemically fascinating. In water, they have a strong propensity to aggregate, but this research reveals that tendency is regulated by ionic strength. In the environment, conductivity extremes occur naturally—freshwater to seawater—warranting consideration at low and high values. The flow field flow fractionation (flow FFF) of FAs and HAs is observed to be concentration dependent in low ionic strength solutions whereas the corresponding flow FFF fractograms in high ionic strength solutions are concentration independent. Dynamic light scattering (DLS) also reveals insight into the conductivity-dependent behavior of humic substances (HSs). Four particle size ranges for FAs and humic acid aggregates are examined: (1) 〈10 nm; (2) 10 nm–6 µm; (3) 6–100 µm; and (4) >100 µm. Representative components of the different size ranges are observed to dynamically coexist in solution. The character of the various aggregates observed—such as random-extended-coiled macromolecules, hydrogels, supramolecular, and micellar—as influenced by electrolytic conductivity, is discussed. The disaggregation/aggregation of HSs is proposed to be a dynamic equilibrium process for which the rate of aggregate formation is controlled by the electrolytic conductivity of the solution.

Description: In 2012 scientists funded by the United States Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) produced 10 million doses of influenza vaccine in tobacco in a milestone deadline of one month. Recently the experimental antibody cocktail Zmapp™, also produced in tobacco, has shown promise as an emergency intervention therapeutic against Ebola virus. These two examples showcase how collaborative efforts between government, private industry and academia are applying plant biotechnology to combat pathogenic agents. Opportunities now exist repurposing tobacco expression systems for exciting new applications in synthetic biology, biofuels production and industrial enzyme production. As plant-produced biotherapeutics become more mainstream, government funding agencies need to be cognizant of the idea that many plant-produced biologicals are often safer, cheaper, and just as efficacious as traditionally used expression systems.

Description: Global climate change is projected to adversely impact freshwater resources, and in many settings these impacts are already apparent. In Nigeria, these impacts can be especially severe because of limited adaptive capacity. Understanding the knowledge and attitudes of current and future Nigerian decision-makers is important to preparing Nigeria for climate change impacts. This paper examines the knowledge and attitudes of university students and government officials about the causes, effects, and priority given to climate change in Nigeria. Paper surveys were distributed to 379 study participants in Akwa Ibom and Lagos states of Nigeria. The findings reveal that approximately 90% of study participants believe that human activities are a significant cause of climate change, with no significant difference between ministry officials’ and students’ responses. Participants were less knowledgeable about the effects of climate change on Nigeria as a whole, but more aware of impacts relevant to Southern Nigeria, where study sites were located. Personal experience seemed to play a role in the knowledge and attitudes of respondents. Due to the varied climate of the country, campaigns to ensure comprehensive knowledge of climate change impacts to the entire country may be helpful.

Description: Determining the optimum angle for a solar panel is important if tracking systems are not used and a tilt angle remains constant. This article determines the sensitivity of the optimum angle to surface reflectivity at different latitudes using a mathematical model that accounts for direct, diffuse and reflected radiation. A quadratic correlation is also developed to compute the optimal angle and maximum energy as a function of latitude and reflectivity. We also seek to determine how sensitive the optimal tilt angle is to cloud cover using the 35° latitude of the Prosperity solar facility in Albuquerque, NM.

Description: Ammonia is a major fugitive gas emitted from livestock operations and fertilization production. This study tested the potential of various biochars in removing gaseous ammonia via adsorption processes. Gaseous ammonia adsorption capacities of various biochars made from wood shaving and chicken litter with different thermal conditions and activation techniques were determined using laboratory adsorption column tests. Ammonia adsorption capacities of non-activated biochars ranged from 0.15 to 5.09 mg·N/g, which were comparable to that of other commercial activated carbon and natural zeolite. There were no significant differences in ammonia adsorption capacities of steam activated and non-activated biochars even if the surface areas of the steam activated biochars were about two orders of magnitude greater than that of non-activated biochars. In contrast, phosphoric acid activation greatly increased the biochar ammonia adsorption capacity. This suggests that the surface area of biochar did not readily control gaseous NH3 adsorption. Ammonia adsorption capacities were more or less linearly increased with acidic oxygen surface groups of non-activated and steam-activated biochars. Phosphoric acid bound to the acid activated biochars is suspected to contribute to the exceptionally high ammonia adsorption capacity. The sorption capacities of virgin and water-washed biochar samples were not different, suggesting the potential to regenerate spent biochar simply with water instead of energy- and capital-intensive steam. The results of this study suggest that non-activated biochars can successfully replace commercial activated carbon in removing gaseous ammonia and the removal efficiency will greatly increase if the biochars are activated with phosphoric acid.

Description: In sub-Saharan Africa, hydro-meteorological related disasters, such as floods, account for the majority of the total number of natural disasters. Over the past century, floods have affected 38 million people, claimed several lives and caused substantial economic losses in the region. The goal of this paper is to examine how personality disposition, social network, and socio-demographic factors mitigate the complex relationship between stressful life experiences of floods and ocean surges and the adoption of coping strategies among coastal communities in Nigeria and Tanzania. Generalized linear models (GLM) were fitted to cross-sectional survey data on 1003 and 1253 individuals in three contiguous coastal areas in Nigeria and Tanzania, respectively. Marked differences in the type of coping strategies were observed across the two countries. In Tanzania, the zero-order relationships between adoption of coping strategies and age, employment and income disappeared at the multivariate level. Only experience of floods in the past year and social network resources were significant predictors of participants’ adoption of coping strategies, unlike in Nigeria, where a plethora of factors such as experience of ocean surges in the past one year, personality disposition, age, education, experience of flood in the past one year, ethnicity, income, housing quality and employment status were still statistically significant at the multivariate level. Our findings suggest that influence of previous experience on adoption of coping strategies is spatially ubiquitous. Consequently, context-specific policies aimed at encouraging the adoption of flood-related coping strategies in vulnerable locations should be designed based on local needs and orientation.

Description: Sward structure affects herbage growth, pasture species dynamics, and herbage utilization. Defoliation management has a major impact on sward structure. In particular, tiller size-tiller density compensations allow for the maintenance of herbage growth. Tiller size and tiller density are determined by several major morphogenetical components. Defoliation affects these morphogenetical components, depending on its frequency and its intensity, through several direct and indirect physiological and environmental processes. Due to the implications of leaf area removal, defoliation has a direct effect on the mobilization of C and N reserves and their supply to growing leaves. In addition, defoliation has an indirect effect on leaf and tiller morphogenesis, due to its impact on the light environment within the canopy as well as plant responses to light signals (blue light, red far red ratio). Defoliation may also in some cases have a direct negative effect on leaf growth by damaging leaf meristems. Understanding the respective role of these various physiological and environmental processes requires studies where defoliation, photosynthetic active radiation and light signals are manipulated independently. Past and recent knowledge on these direct and indirect effects of defoliation on plant morphogenesis are discussed, leading to an overall integrated view of physiological and environmental processes that lead to adaptations of sward structure in response to defoliation management. Major consequences for herbage utilization efficiency are presented.

Description: Climate change impacts on nature and the environment have been widely discussed and studied. Traditionally, a company’s continuity management is based on risk analysis. There are also attempts to implement scenario-based methods in the risk management procedures of companies. For industrial decision makers, it is vital to acknowledge the impacts of climate change with regards to their adaptation strategies. However, a scenario-based approach is not always the most effective way to analyze these risks. This paper investigates the integration of scenario and risk-based methods for a company’s adaptation planning. It considers the uncertainties of the climate change scenarios and the recognized risks as well as suitable adaptation strategies. The paper presents the results of climate risk analysis prepared for two Finnish hydropower plants. The introduced method was first piloted in 2008 and then again in 2015. The update of the analysis pointed out that at the company level, the climate risks and other risks originating from governmental or political decisions form an intertwined wholeness where the origin of the risk is difficult to outline. It seems that, from the business point of view, the main adaptation strategies suggested by the integrated risk and scenarios approach are those that support buying “safety margins” in new investments and reducing decision time horizons. Both of these adaptation strategies provide an advantage in the circumstances where also political decisions and societal changes have a great effect on decision making.

Description: Guarantees are often seen as the key characteristics of pension saving products, but securing them can become costly and is of central relevance especially in the course of the current low interest rate environment. In this article, we deal with the question of how costly the typical types of guarantees are, in the sense that they reduce a pension saving scheme’s financial performance over time. In this context, we aim to provide a presentation of insights from selected literature studying the impact of point-to-point guarantees and cliquet-style interest rate guarantees on the performance of pension contracts. The comparative analysis emphasizes that, in most cases, guarantee costs are not negligible with regard to a contract’s financial performance, especially compared to benchmarks, and that customers knowingly opt for such guarantees (or not) is, thus, indispensable. To further investigate the willingness-to-pay for guarantees in life insurance is an area for future research, in particular for innovative contract design.

Description: The Californian Floristic Province, ranging from Northern California, USA, to the northwestern portion of the state of Baja California, Mexico, is a region of great biological richness that has a high risk of loss of species due to the effect of human activities. The main stressor that threatens its biodiversity is the change in land use and vegetation cover, which severely impacts the environmental and socio-economic systems’ functioning, affecting the provision of environmental services including the maintenance of biodiversity. The Tijuana River Watershed (TRW) is located within this floristic province. It has experienced rapid population growth during the last 50 years, demanding development of infrastructure in areas where native vegetation existed. As a binational watershed, it is an ideal area to study the processes involved in fragmentation and connectivity of natural environments, since both countries, while sharing the same environment, contrast greatly in their economic and social systems, which impose different pressures to these shared natural resources. Our research addresses change in vegetation cover and land use in the TRW, analyzing the changes and differences between Mexico and the United States. This analysis will be a basis to propose future management strategies for the conservation of ecological processes and biodiversity, according to the policies and actions for land management and conservation in both countries.

Description: Madagascar is renowned for the loss of the forested habitat of lemurs and other species endemic to the island. Less well known is that in the highlands, a region often described as an environmental “basket-case” of fire-degraded, eroded grasslands, woody cover has been increasing for decades. Using information derived from publically available high- and medium-resolution satellites, this study characterizes tree cover dynamics in the highlands of Madagascar over the past two decades. Our results reveal heterogeneous patterns of increased tree cover on smallholder farms and village lands, spurred by a mix of endogenous and exogenous forces. The new trees play important roles in rural livelihoods, providing renewable supplies of firewood, charcoal, timber and other products and services, as well as defensible claims to land tenure in the context of a decline in the use of hillside commons for grazing. This study documents this nascent forest transition through Land Change Science techniques, and provides a prologue to political ecological analysis by setting these changes in their social and environmental context and interrogating the costs and benefits of the shift in rural livelihood strategies.

Description: Energy efficiency has been an important topic since the latter part of the last century. This is because adoption of energy efficiency measures has been acknowledged as one of the key methods of addressing the negative impact of climate change. In Zambia, however, the need to adopt energy efficiency measures has not just been driven by the imperative to mitigate the negative effects of climate change but also by a critical shortage of energy. This research looks at households’ energy consumption behavior in low- and high-income areas of Kitwe. Recent studies on the relationship between household energy consumption and behavioral lifestyle have been descriptive, with limited emphasis on the relationships between various variables. In this study, descriptive and inferential statistics have been used to investigate relationships between the two income groups and various energy consumption-related variables such as knowledge about energy reduction measures, energy saving strategies, barriers to the use of energy saving strategies, and the motives for using energy reduction strategies. Methodologically, the study was largely quantitative in nature, with questionnaires administered to a combined total of 56 households. However, key interviews were also conducted that helped us to get a clearer understanding of some of the issues covered in the research. Key findings are that whereas the descriptive statistics show that there are behavioral differences between the two income groups, the inferential statistics show that there is no relationship between income level and the energy efficiency variables. This has been found to be consistent with results from studies done elsewhere. The key lesson is that there is low usage of energy efficiency measures in both low- and high-income areas and that the authorities need to change the way information is disseminated to consumers from the current method of advertising to social diffusion.

Description: This paper seeks to understand the drivers and pathways of local livelihood change and the prospects for transformation towards a more sustainable future. Data are used from several studies, and a participatory social learning process, which formed part of a larger project in two sites in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. Secondary information from a wealth of related work is used to place our results within the historic context and more general trends in the country. Findings indicate that livelihoods in the rural Eastern Cape are on new trajectories. Agricultural production has declined markedly, at a time when the need for diversification of livelihoods and food security seems to be at a premium. This decline is driven by a suite of drivers that interact with, and are influenced by, other changes and stresses affecting local livelihoods. We distil out the factors, ranging from historical processes to national policies and local dynamics, that hamper peoples’ motivation and ability to respond to locally identified vulnerabilities and, which, when taken together, could drive households into a trap. We end by considering the transformations required to help local people evade traps and progress towards a more promising future in a context of increasing uncertainty.

Description: Land uses are changing rapidly in Vietnam’s upland northern borderlands. Regional development platforms such as the Greater Mekong Subregion, state-propelled market integration and reforestation programs, and lowland entrepreneurs and migrants are all impacting this frontier landscape. Drawing on a mixed methods approach using remote sensing data from 2000 to 2009 and ethnographic fieldwork, we examine how land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) has occurred across three borderland provinces—Lai Châu, Lào Cai and Hà Giang—with high proportions of ethnic minority semi-subsistence farmers. After a broad examination of regional land-use changes, we select three case studies to further analyze the underlying relationships between specific LULCC and local livelihood diversification strategies. These include specific patterns of urban growth due to a range of political decisions in Lai Châu and Lào Cai Provinces; reforestation due to non-timber forest (NTFP) product cultivation in the west of Lào Cai Province; and a stable landscape that restricts government attempts at refashioning upland livelihoods in the east of Hà Giang. Our findings point to the difficulties of completing LULCC maps for this highly heterogeneous region and the complexity of LULCC and livelihood interactions and relationships examined on the ground.

Description: We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate farmers’ decisions on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and biofuel crop prices. Farm profit maximization constrained by farmers’ profit expectations for land committed to biofuel crop production was used as the decision rule. Empirical parameters characterizing farmers’ profit expectations were derived from an agricultural landowners and operators survey and integrated in the ABM. The integration of crop production cost models and the survey information in the ABM is critical to producing simulations that can provide realistic insights into agricultural land use planning and policy making. Model simulations were run with historical market prices and alternative market scenarios for corn price, soybean to corn price ratio, switchgrass price, and switchgrass to corn stover ratio. The results of the comparison between simulated cropland percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects that continuous corn production has on yields. The simulation results for alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed in eastern Iowa show that farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form of perennial grasses or corn stover as a more risky enterprise than their current crop production systems, likely because of market and production risks and lock in effects. As a result farmers do not follow a simple farm-profit maximization rule.

Description: We investigate various scenarios for ending the San Francisco MSM (men having sex with men) HIV/AIDS epidemic (1978–1984). We use our previously developed model and explore changes due to prevention strategies such as testing, treatment and reduction of the number of contacts. Here we consider a “what-if” scenario, by comparing different treatment strategies, to determine which factor has the greatest impact on reducing the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The factor determining the future of the epidemic is the reproduction number R0; if R0 〈 1, the epidemic is stopped. We show that treatment significantly reduces the total number of infected people. We also investigate the effect a reduction in the number of contacts after seven years, when the HIV/AIDS threat became known, would have had in the population. Both reduction of contacts and treatment alone, however, would not have been enough to bring R0 below one; but when combined, we show that the effective R0 becomes less than one, and therefore the epidemic would have been eradicated.

Description: Magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) exhibit unique magnetic properties making them ideally suited for a variety of biomedical applications. Depending on the desired magnetic effect, MNPs must meet special magnetic requirements which are mainly determined by their structural properties (e.g., size distribution). The hyphenation of chromatographic separation techniques with complementary detectors is capable of providing multidimensional information of submicron particles. Although various methods have already been combined for this approach, so far, no detector for the online magnetic analysis was used. Magnetic particle spectroscopy (MPS) has been proven a straightforward technique for specific quantification and characterization of MNPs. It combines high sensitivity with high temporal resolution; both of these are prerequisites for a successful hyphenation with chromatographic separation. We demonstrate the capability of MPS to specifically detect and characterize MNPs under usually applied asymmetric flow field-flow fractionation (A4F) conditions (flow rates, MNP concentration, different MNP types). To this end MPS has been successfully integrated into an A4F multidetector platform including dynamic ligth scattering (DLS), multi-angle light scattering (MALS) and ultraviolet (UV) detection. Our system allows for rapid and comprehensive characterization of typical MNP samples for the systematic investigation of structure-dependent magnetic properties. This has been demonstrated by magnetic analysis of the commercial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) contrast agent Ferucarbotran (FER) during hydrodynamic A4F fractionation.

Description: This paper proposes an approach for the space-fractional diffusion equation in one dimension. Since fractional differential operators are non-local, two main difficulties arise after discretization and solving using Gaussian elimination: how to handle the memory requirement of O(N2) for storing the dense or even full matrices that arise from application of numerical methods and how to manage the significant computational work count of O(N3) per time step, where N is the number of spatial grid points. In this paper, a fast iterative finite difference method is developed, which has a memory requirement of O(N) and a computational cost of O(N logN) per iteration. Finally, some numerical results are shown to verify the accuracy and efficiency of the new method.

Description: Extending Eilenberg–Mac Lane’s cohomology of abelian groups, a cohomology theory is introduced for commutative monoids. The cohomology groups in this theory agree with the pre-existing ones by Grillet in low dimensions, but they differ beyond dimension two. A natural interpretation is given for the three-cohomology classes in terms of braided monoidal groupoids.

Description: A detailed statistical analysis was performed at the Neuquén river basin using precipitation data for 1980–2007. The hydrological year begins in March with a maximum in June associated with rainfall and another relative maximum in October derived from snow-break. General features of the rainy season and the excess or deficits thereof are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) for a six-month period in the basin. The SPI has a significant cycle of 14.3 years; the most severe excess (SPI greater than 2) has a return period of 25 years, while the most severe droughts (SPI less than −2) have a return period of 10 years. The SPI corresponding to the rainy season (April–September) (SPI9) has no significant trend and is used to classify wet/dry years. In order to establish the previous circulation patterns associated with interannual SPI9 variability, the composite fields of wet and dry years are compared. There is a tendency for wet (dry) periods to take place during El Niño (La Niña) years, when there are positive anomalies of precipitable water over the basin, when the zonal flow over the Pacific Ocean is weakened (intensified) and/or when there are negative pressure anomalies in the southern part of the country and Antarctic sea. Some prediction schemes using multiple linear regressions were performed. One of the models derived using the forward stepwise method explained 42% of the SPI9 variance and retained two predictors related to circulation over the Pacific Ocean: one of them shows the relevance of the intensity of zonal flow in mid-latitudes, and the other is because of the influence of low pressure near the Neuquén River basin. The cross-validation used to prove model efficiency showed a correlation of 0.41 between observed and estimated SPI9; there was a probability of detection of wet (dry) years of 80% (65%) and a false alarm relation of 25% in both cases.

Description: The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) version 4.4 Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) is used to investigate the rainfall response to cooler/warmer sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) forcing in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The effect of SSTA forcing in a specific ocean basin is identified by ensemble, averaging 10 individual simulations in which a constant or linearly zonally varying SSTA is prescribed in individual basins while specifying the 1971–2000 monthly varying climatological sea surface temperature (SST) across the remaining model domain. The nonlinear rainfall response to SSTA amplitude also is investigated by separately specifying +1K, +2K, and +4K SSTA forcing in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The simulation results show that warm SSTs over the entire Indian Ocean produce drier conditions across the larger Blue Nile catchment, whereas warming ≥ +2K generates large positive rainfall anomalies exceeding 10 mm·day−1 over drought prone regions of Northeastern Ethiopia. However, the June–September rainy season tends to be wetter (drier) when the SST warming (cooling) is limited to either the Northern or Southern Indian Ocean. Wet rainy seasons generally are characterized by deepening of the monsoon trough, east of 40°E, intensification of the Mascarene high, strengthening of the Somali low level jet and the tropical easterly jet, enhanced zonal and meridional vertically integrated moisture fluxes, and steeply vertically decreasing moist static energy. The opposite conditions hold for dry monsoon seasons.

Description: Coral bleaching is caused by environmental stress and susceptibility to bleaching stress varies among types of coral. The physiological properties of the algal symbionts (Symbiodinium spp.), especially extent of damage to PSII and its repair capacity, contribute importantly to this variability in stress susceptibility. The objective of the present study was to investigate the relationship between the growth rates and photosynthetic activities of six cultured strains of Symbiodinium spp. (clades A, B, C, D, and F) at elevated temperature (33 °C). We also observed the recovery of photodamaged-PSII in the presence or absence of a chloroplast protein synthesis inhibitor (lincomycin). The growth rates and photochemical efficiencies of PSII (Fv/Fm) decreased in parallel at high temperature in thermally sensitive strains, B-K100 (clade B followed by culture name) and A-Y106, but not in a thermally tolerant strain, F-K102 and D-K111. In strains A-KB8 and C-Y103, growth declined markedly at high temperature, but Fv/Fm decreased only slightly. These strains may reallocate energy from growth to the repair of damaged photosynthetic machineries or protection pathways. Alternatively, since recoveries of photo-damaged PSII at 33 °C were modest in strains A-KB8 and C-Y103, thermal stressing of other metabolic pathways may have reduced growth rates in these two strains. This possibility should be explored in future research efforts.

Description: The Aharonov-Vaidman gauge additively transforms the mean energy of a quantum mechanical system into a weak valued system energy. In this paper, the equation of motion of this weak valued energy is used to provide a mathematical statement of an extended 1st Law of Thermodynamics that is applicable to the mean energy of a closed quantum system when the mean energy is expressed in the Aharonov-Vaidman gauge, i.e., when the system’s energy is weak valued. This is achieved by identifying the generalized heat and work exchange terms that appear in the equation of motion for weak valued energy. The complex valued contributions of the additive gauge term to these generalized exchange terms are discussed and this extended 1st Law is shown to subsume the usual 1st Law that is applicable for the mean energy of a closed quantum system. It is found that the gauge transformation introduces an additional energy uncertainty exchange term that—while it is neither a heat nor a work exchange term—is necessary for the conservation of weak valued energy. A spin-1/2 particle in a uniform magnetic field is used to illustrate aspects of the theory. It is demonstrated for this case that the extended 1st Law implies the existence of a gauge potential ω and that it generates a non-vanishing gauge field F. It is also shown for this case that the energy uncertainty exchange accumulated during the evolution of the system along a closed evolutionary cycle C in an associated parameter space is a geometric phase. This phase is equal to both the path integral of ω along C and the integral of the flux of F through the area enclosed by C.

Description: Storm surge is dependent on wind direction, with maximum surge heights occurring when strong winds blow onshore. It is less obvious what happens when a port city is situated at the end of a long narrow gulf, like Venice at the northwestern end of the Adriatic Sea. Does the narrow marine approach to the port city limit the dangerous wind direction to a span of only a few degrees? This modeling study shows that the response in surge height to wind direction is a sinusoidal curve for port cities at the end of a long inlet, as well as for cities exposed along a straight coastline. Surge height depends on the cosine of the angle between the wind direction and the major axis of the narrow gulf. There is no special protection from storm surge afforded by a narrow ocean-going approach to a port city.

Description: The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar harbours the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by a small-scale agricultural mosaic. There is high deforestation, commonly thought to be caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice. However, little is known about the dynamics between forest and shifting cultivation systems at a regional level. Our study presents a first attempt to quantify changes in the extent of forest and different agricultural land cover classes, and to identify the main dynamics of land cover change for two intervals, 1995–2005 and 2005–2011. Over the 16-year study period, the speed of forest loss increased, the total area of upland rice production remained almost stable, and the area of irrigated rice fields slightly increased. While our findings seem to confirm a general trend of land use intensification, deforestation through shifting cultivation is still on the rise. Deforestation mostly affects the small forest fragments interspersed in the agricultural mosaic and is slowly leading to a homogenization of the landscape. These findings have important implications for future interventions to slow forest loss in the region, as the processes of agricultural expansion through shifting cultivation versus intensified land use cannot per se be considered mutually exclusive.

Description: Arsenic (As) in soils causes several detrimental effects, including death. Arsenic toxicity in soybean plants (Glycine max L.) has been little studied. Arbuscular mycorrhiza (AM) increase the tolerance of host plants to abiotic stress, like As. We investigated the effects of AM fungi on soybean grown in As-contaminated soils. A pot experiment was carried out in a glasshouse, at random with five replications. We applied three levels of As (0, 25, and 50 mg As kg−1), inoculated and non-inoculated with the AM fungus Rhizophagus intraradices (N.C. Schenck & G.S. Sm.) C. Walker & A. Schüßler. Plant parameters and mycorrhizal colonization were measured. Arsenic in the substrate, roots, and leaves was quantified. Arsenic negatively affected the AM percentage of spore germination and hyphal length. As also affected soybean plants negatively: an extreme treatment caused a reduction of more than 77.47% in aerial biomass, 68.19% in plant height, 78.35% in number of leaves, and 44.96% reduction in root length, and delayed the phenological evolution. Mycorrhizal inoculation improved all of these parameters, and decreased plant As accumulation (from 7.8 mg As kg−1 to 6.0 mg As kg−1). AM inoculation showed potential to reduce As toxicity in contaminated areas. The AM fungi decreased As concentration in plants following different ways: dilution effect, less As intake by roots, and improving soybean tolerance to As.

Description: A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005) and future (2081–2100) climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban heat island of eight different cities, located on three continents, is quantified and assessed, with an unprecedented horizontal resolution of a few hundred meters. For all cities, urban and rural air temperatures are found to increase strongly, up to 7 °C. However, the urban heat island intensity in most cases increases only slightly, often even below the range of uncertainty. A potential explanation, focusing on the role of increased incoming longwave radiation, is put forth. Finally, an alternative method for generating urban climate projections is proposed, combining the ensemble temperature change statistics and the results of the present-day urban climate.

Description: Numerous anthropogenic factors represent environmental threats to Gulf Coast wetland ecosystems and associated fauna. American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) have been subject to long-term management and used as ecological and physiological indicators of habitat quality in response to anthropogenic events and stochastic natural disasters. The present study monitored heterophil to lymphocyte ratios (an indicator of stress), in American alligators in a Louisiana intermediate marsh from 2009 to 2011, a time period that coincides with an oil inundation event that occurred in 2011. Sixteen alligators were observed and processed morphometrically (total length, snout-vent length and body mass). Heterophil to lymphocyte ratios were negatively correlated with size, suggesting larger American alligators were physiologically more resilient to the disturbance, more able to actively avoid these poor conditions, or are less affected by localized disturbance.

Description: Although Australia exports more than half of its agricultural production, there are food security problems as the current food supply systems in Australia fail to deliver healthy diets to all Australians and fail to protect the natural resources on which they depend. In addition, the food systems create “collateral damage” to the natural environment including biodiversity loss. In coming decades, Australia’s food supply systems will be increasingly challenged by resource price inflation and falling yields due to climate change. Government and business are aiming to increase production and agricultural exports. This will increase pressure on agricultural resources and exacerbate “collateral” damage to the environment. The Australian public has an ongoing interest in issues associated with the food systems including the environment, education, health and sustainability. A health-giving diet is essential for a full life and over a life-time people need food security. Currently economy development and social planning is undertaken through the pragmatic application of a set of ideas, such as relying on markets and deregulation, collectively referred to as neoliberalism. This paper contends that the neoliberal approach is not solving the current and developing problems in food security and agriculture more generally and suggests that more emphasis should be given to alternatives approaches. Seven alternatives approaches are suggested that could be used to identify gaps and guide the creation of overarching goals in economic development and social planning to improve food security and secure the other material goods and social arrangements that all Australians require to live full lives. However, changing large systems such as those involved in food supply is difficult because vested interests in the existing arrangements make the current systems resilient to change. There are a range of leverage points that have differing abilities to change systems. The paper points out that goals and information flows are good leverage points and suggests establishing overarching goals for the systems relevant to food and restructuring the flow of information about these systems will help reform the food supply systems in Australia.

Description: Kratom is a tree planted in Southeast Asia, including Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma) and elsewhere in the region. A long history of usage and abuse of kratom has led to the classification of kratom as a controlled substance in its native Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries. However, kratom is not controlled in the United States, and the wide availability of kratom on the Internet and in the streets has led to its emergence as an herbal drug of misuse. With the increasing popularity of kratom, efficient protocols are needed to detect kratom use. In this study, a rapid method for the analysis of kratom compounds, mitragynine and 7-hydroxymitragynine, in human urine has been developed and validated using high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). The chromatographic system employed a 2.6-μm 100 mm × 2.1 mm phenyl-hexyl analytical column and gradient elution with a 0.4-mL/min flow rate of water and acetonitrile as mobile phases. A triple quadrupole mass spectrometer was used as the detector for data acquisition. The analyst was the quantification software. The established method demonstrated linearity of >0.99 for both analytes, and low detection limits were obtained down to 0.002581 ng/mL for mitragynine and 0.06910 ng/mL for 7-hydroxymitragynine. The validated method has been utilized for clinical analysis of urine for the purpose of mitragynine and 7-hydroxymitragynine detection.

Description: The fractional order differential equation \(u'(t)=Au(t)+\gamma D_t^{\alpha} Au(t)+f(t), \ t>0\), \(u(0)=a\in X\) is studied, where \(A\) is an operator generating a strongly continuous one-parameter semigroup on a Banach space \(X\), \(D_t^{\alpha}\) is the Riemann–Liouville fractional derivative of order \(\alpha \in (0,1)\), \(\gamma>0\) and \(f\) is an \(X\)-valued function. Equations of this type appear in the modeling of unidirectional viscoelastic flows. Well-posedness is proven, and a subordination identity is obtained relating the solution operator of the considered problem and the \(C_{0}\)-semigroup, generated by the operator \(A\). As an example, the Rayleigh–Stokes problem for a generalized second-grade fluid is considered.

Description: This numerical study focuses on the fire phenomenology associated with the presence of a composite-type aircraft immersed, at one particular location and orientation, within a large aviation-fuel fire in a moving fluid medium. An extension of the eddy dissipation concept is incorporated, allowing one to investigate the roles of the wind speed and its direction on the fire growth, heat flux distribution and smoke products, such as carbon monoxide and soot. The predicted flame shape compares well with the measurements for an intermediate-scale fire. The outcome of the study is interesting, and the interaction model between turbulence and combustion is indeed adequate. The prediction indicates that interaction between the large object and fire environment combined with the influence of wind conditions dramatically affects the continuous flame shape. The increase of the wind speed results in an alteration of the distribution of the incident heat fluxes to the engulfed fuselage skin for a case where the fire and fuselage are of comparable size. The highest heat flux occurs on the windward side of the fuselage for the low and medium winds, but on the leeward side of the fuselage for the high wind. The peak in heat flux to the medium or high wind is almost equal in magnitude, but about a factor four increase of that to the low wind.

Description: Maize (Zea mays L) is the most important food grain in sub-Saharan Africa and is mostly grown by small-scale farmers under rainfed conditions. Aluminum toxicity caused by low pH is one of the abiotic factors limiting maize production among smallholder farmers. Therefore, breeding maize hybrids that are tolerant to aluminum toxicity will sustain and increase maize production in these areas. Hence this study was undertaken to assess the genotypic variation for aluminum toxicity in maize inbred lines. Fourteen maize inbred lines of historical importance that are used in maize hybrid breeding in Zambia were studied for seedling root variation under different aluminum concentrations using hydroponic conditions. The aluminum tolerance membership index based on three traits (actual root length, relative root length and root length response) classified genotypes L3233 and L1214 as highly tolerant, L5527 and ZM421 as tolerant, and L12, L3234, and ZM521 as intermediate. The high PCV, GCV, and heritability observed for the root traits indicate that opportunities for selection and breeding for aluminum tolerance among Zambian inbred lines exist. Furthermore, the study indicated that a higher genetic gain would be expected from net root growth followed by shoot length response as selection traits, thus supporting the use of root traits for aluminum tolerance screening.

Description: This paper is a follow-up of a previous paper of the author published in Mathematics journal in 2015, which treats the so-called continuous fractional orthogonal derivative. In this paper, we treat the discrete case using the fractional orthogonal difference. The theory is illustrated with an application of a fractional differentiating filter. In particular, graphs are presented of the absolutel value of the modulus of the frequency response. These make clear that for a good insight into the behavior of a fractional differentiating filter, one has to look for the modulus of its frequency response in a log-log plot, rather than for plots in the time domain.

Description: This paper considers the relationship between information and meaning through an analysis of a set of measures of information. Since meaning is expressed using information the analysis of the measures illuminates the relationship. The conventions that govern the production and exchange of information are the outcome of selection processes, so the quality of information (as expressed in the measures) is subject to limitations caused by selection. These limitations are analysed using a technique called viewpoint analysis that enables the measures and their relationship with meaning to be examined. Viewpoint analysis is applied to several logical paradoxes and resolves them in a manner consistent with common sense. Finally, the approach is used to address Floridi’s questions about the philosophy of information associated with meaning.

Description: The manta is the largest marine organism to swim by dorsoventral oscillation (flapping) of the pectoral fins. The manta has been considered to swim with a high efficiency stroke, but this assertion has not been previously examined. The oscillatory swimming strokes of the manta were examined by detailing the kinematics of the pectoral fin movements swimming over a range of speeds and by analyzing simulations based on computational fluid dynamic potential flow and viscous models. These analyses showed that the fin movements are asymmetrical up- and downstrokes with both spanwise and chordwise waves interposed into the flapping motions. These motions produce complex three-dimensional flow patterns. The net thrust for propulsion was produced from the distal half of the fins. The vortex flow pattern and high propulsive efficiency of 89% were associated with Strouhal numbers within the optimal range (0.2–0.4) for rays swimming at routine and high speeds. Analysis of the swimming pattern of the manta provided a baseline for creation of a bio-inspired underwater vehicle, MantaBot.

Description: More and more functions are performed automatically with the use of various electrical appliances and sophisticated control systems in all spheres of human life. In this regard, the demand for reliable and quality power supply is increasing. To date, low power quality, in particular unacceptable voltage levels, is an important deterrent for introducing technologies of smart electricity consumers (smart homes, smart companies, smart cities). This paper presents a comprehensive solution of this problem with the use of a voltage control system in the distribution grids, which is oriented on grids with a large number of heterogeneous loads and low level of Information Technology (IT) penetration. It is proposed to be installed on distribution substation special devices that perform continuous measurements of voltage levels, produce short-term forecasts and transmit the permissible ranges of voltage control to the power supply centers. The computing unit at the primary substation analyzes the data received from all distribution substations, and determines the optimum control actions to meet the requirements of all consumers. The proposed system was compared with conventional voltage control methods. The results have proved the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Description: We address the recently posed question as to whether the nonlocality of a single member of an entangled pair of spin 1 / 2 particles can be shared among multiple observers on the other wing who act sequentially and independently of each other. We first show that the optimality condition for the trade-off between information gain and disturbance in the context of weak or non-ideal measurements emerges naturally when one employs a one-parameter class of positive operator valued measures (POVMs). Using this formalism we then prove analytically that it is impossible to obtain violation of the Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt (CHSH) inequality by more than two Bobs in one of the two wings using unbiased input settings with an Alice in the other wing.

Description: Large parts of the northern hemisphere are covered by snow and seasonal frost. Climate warming is affecting spatiotemporal variations of snow and frost, hence influencing snowmelt infiltration, aquifer recharge and river runoff patterns. Measurement difficulties have hampered progress in properly assessing how variations in snow and frost impact snowmelt infiltration. This has led to contradicting findings. Some studies indicate that groundwater recharge response is scale dependent. It is thus important to measure snow and soil frost properties with temporal and spatial scales appropriate to improve infiltration process knowledge. The main aim with this paper is therefore to review ground based methods to measure snow properties (depth, density, water equivalent, wetness, and layering) and soil frost properties (depth, water and ice content, permeability, and distance to groundwater) and to make recommendations for process studies aiming to improve knowledge regarding infiltration in regions with seasonal frost. Ground-based radar (GBR) comes in many different combinations and can, depending on design, be used to assess both spatial and temporal variations in snow and frost so combinations of GBR and tracer techniques can be recommended and new promising methods (auocostics and self potential) are evolving, but the study design must be adapted to the scales, the aims and the resources of the study.

Description: This paper discusses agri-food economies and how they evolve over time. It also analyses how these economies, which often have contradictory dynamics, are theorized. A central thesis of the paper is that different theoretical representations not only reflect the differences in agro-economies and their developmental tendencies, but are also important drivers that actively shape the trajectories that they describe. The paper concludes by arguing that, more often than not, it is the newly emerging alternatives that are taking the initiative, responding to changing socio-economic demands while the hegemonic systems are merely reacting to the emerging alternatives. While it is possible that the alternatives might be appropriated and ‘conventionalized’ by the hegemonic systems, it is equally possible that the alternatives, especially when interconnected and rooted in democratic institutions, might induce a generalized crisis in the food systems that are currently dominant.

Description: A recent alleged “drone” collision with a British Airways Airbus A320 at Heathrow Airport highlighted the need to understand civil Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS) accidents and incidents (events). This understanding will facilitate improvements in safety by ensuring efforts are focused to reduce the greatest risks. One hundred and fifty two RPAS events were analyzed. The data was collected from a 10-year period (2006 to 2015). Results show that, in contrast to commercial air transportation (CAT), RPAS events have a significantly different distribution when categorized by occurrence type, phase of flight, and safety issue. Specifically, it was found that RPAS operations are more likely to experience (1) loss of control in-flight, (2) events during takeoff and in cruise, and (3) equipment problems. It was shown that technology issues, not human factors, are the key contributor in RPAS events. This is a significant finding, as it is contrary to the industry view which has held for the past quarter of a century that human factors are the key contributor (which is still the case for CAT). Regulators should therefore look at technologies and not focus solely on operators.

Description: The objective of this study is to understand which requirements for cereal cultivars—with regard to climate change adaptation—are in demand by farmers and advisors, and to clarify whether there are any differences in their assessments. A comparative survey was used to collect data from 410 farmers and 114 advisors in Germany. The majority of both farmers and advisors reported perceivable effects of climatic change on plant production. The increase in droughts and hot spells, the increased incidence of torrential rain, and mild winters were mentioned as the main effects of climate change. For climate change adaptation, the farmers and advisors mostly relied on a locally-adapted cultivar selection. It is estimated that eco-stability, grain yield, resistance to lodging and drought tolerance are important cultivar properties. In the study, farmers and advisors equally pointed out the need for additional cultivar evaluation according to eco-stability. Finally, only minor differences regarding farmers’ and advisors’ assessments were found within the study. The outcome of this research points to the need of implementing farmers’ demands in cultivar recommendations. For example, an impartial assessment of cultivars’ eco-stability could help support the choice of cultivars and reduce the growing risks in cereal production with regard to climate change.

Description: The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of exogenous application of salicylic acid concentrations on the physiological and biochemical traits and essential oil content of chamomile under normal and heat stress conditions as induced by delayed sowing. The experiments were conducted during 2011–2012 as a factorial using a randomized complete block design with three replications, in a very hot region. The factors included five salicylic acid concentrations (0 (control), 1, 10, 25 and 100 mg·L−1) and three chamomile cultivars (Bushehr, Bona, Bodegold). The seeds of chamomile were sown on two different sowing dates including an optimum planting date and a late planting date. The physiological traits (plant height, capitol diameter, 1000 grain weight, fresh and dried flower weight), total chlorophyll, proline and essential oil content were investigated. Analysis of variance showed that the effect of the environmental conditions (normal and heat stress) was significant on all physiological and biochemical traits with the exception of the essential oil content. The heat stress decreased physiological traits and total chlorophyll in comparison with the normal conditions but it had no significant effect on the essential oil content. Findings indicated that the application of exogenous salicylic acid improves essential oil content in chamomile cultivars under environmental heat stress conditions.

Description: Forests are a vital resource supporting the livelihoods of rural communities in Kenya. In spite of this significant role, human activities have put increased pressure on this resource, leading to continued forest-cover decline. To address forest-cover decline, the Kenyan government introduced Participatory Forest Management (PFM) through its Forest Department in the early 2000s, enabling local communities to form and register Community Forest Associations (CFAs). This study was conducted to examine the impacts of the PFM approach on the Lembus Forest-cover change. Three Landsat satellite images (Landsat 5 TM acquired on 9 January 1985; Landsat 7 ETM+ acquired on 1 February 2002; and Landsat 8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) acquired on 1 March 2015) were used to analyse forest-cover change in the 1st period (1985–2002) and the 2nd period (2002–2015). In analysing the contribution of CFAs in conservation and management of the Lembus Forest, questionnaire sheets were distributed randomly to various residents living adjacent to the Lembus Forest; 327 valid responses were obtained from heads of households. The results of the land-cover change show a decrease in the percentage of forest-cover decline from 11.2%, registered in the 1st period, to 8.2% in the 2nd period. This led to the decrease of the annual rate of the forest-cover decline from 0.4 in the 1st period to 0.2 in the 2nd period. Three CFAs operate in this area, and 75% of the respondents participated in tree planting and 16% participated in tree pruning. This type of community participation is thought to most likely be the cause of the decline of the recent decreasing annual rate of forest-cover loss in the study area. Conversely, we found out that important initiatives, such as a forest patrol, had not been implemented due to lack of funding, and that CFAs and Kenya Forest Service had not yet signed any management agreement.

Description: Using current observations of forecast type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) Joint Lightcurve Analysis (JLA) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), in this paper we investigate six bidimensional dark energy parameterizations in order to explore which has more constraining power. Our results indicate that for parameterizations that contain z 2 -terms, the tension (σ-distance) between these datasets seems to be reduced and their behaviour is 〈1σ compatible with the concordance model (ΛCDM). Also, the results obtained by performing their Bayesian evidence show a striking evidence in favour of the ΛCDM model, but only one parameterization can be distinguished by around 1 % from the other models when the combination of datasets are considered.

Description: Large estuaries are especially vulnerable to coastal flooding due to the potential of combined storm surges and riverine flows. Numerical models can support flood prevention and planning for coastal communities. However, while recent advancements in the development of numerical models for storm surge prediction have led to robust and accurate models; an increasing number of parameters and physical processes’ representations are available to modelers and engineers. This study investigates uncertainties associated with the selection of physical parameters or processes involved in storm surge modeling in large estuaries. Specifically, we explored the sensitivity of a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) and a coupled wind-wave and circulation model system (ADCIRC + SWAN) to Manning’s n coefficient, wind waves and circulation interaction (wave setup), minimum depth (H0) in the wetting and drying algorithm, and spatially constant horizontal eddy viscosity (ESLM) forced by tides and hurricane winds. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis to Manning’s n coefficient and the interaction of waves and circulation were analyzed by using three different numerical meshes. Manning’s coefficient analysis was divided into waterway (rivers, bay and shore, and open ocean) and overland. Overall, the rivers exhibited a larger sensitivity, and M2 amplitude and maximum water elevations were reduced by 0.20 m and 0.56 m, respectively, by using a high friction value; similarly, high friction reduced maximum water levels up to 0.30 m in overland areas; the wave setup depended on the offshore wave height, angle of breaking, the profile morphology, and the mesh resolution, accounting for up to 0.19 m setup inside the bay; minimum depth analysis showed that H0 = 0.01 added an artificial mass of water in marshes and channels, meanwhile H = 0.1 partially solved this problem; and the eddy viscosity study demonstrated that the ESLM = 40 values reduced up to 0.40 m the peak of the maximum water levels in the upper side of narrow rivers.

Description: Papua New Guinea is blessed with a plethora of enviable natural resources, but at the same time it is also cursed by quite a few natural disasters like volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslide, floods, droughts etc. Floods happen to be a natural process of maintaining the health of the rivers and depth of its thalweg; it saves the river from becoming morbid while toning up the fertility of the riverine landscape. At the same time, from human perspective, all these ecological goodies are nullified when flood is construed overwhelmingly as one of the most devastating events in respect to social and economic consequences. The present investigation was tailored to assess the use of multi-criteria decision approach (MCDA) in inland flood risk analysis. Categorization of possible flood risk zones was accomplished using geospatial data sets, like elevation, slope, distance to river, and land use/land cover, which were derived from digital elevation model (DEM) and satellite image, respectively. A pilot study area was selected in the lower part of Markham River in Morobe Province, Papua New Guinea. The study area is bounded by 146°31′ to 146°58′ east and 6°33′ to 6°46′ south; covers an area of 758.30 km2. The validation of a flood hazard risk map was carried out using past flood records in the study area. This result suggests that MCDA within GIS techniques is very useful in accurate and reliable flood risk analysis and mapping. This approach is convenient for the assessment of flood in any region, specifically in no-data regions, and can be useful for researchers and planners in flood mitigation strategies.

Description: Extreme rainfall events are meteorological hazards that cause great damage and many casualties in the world. This paper examines the trends in extreme rainfall from 10 sub-daily time series and 44 daily time series in Côte d’Ivoire. Rainfall data were converted into indices. In total, six (6) indices were used for daily extreme rainfall and one (1) index for sub-daily extreme rainfall (15 to 240 min). Two statistical tests for trend detection were used to evaluate the possible trend in these precipitation data. The first is a Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test, used to evaluate the existence of monotonic trends. The second is a linear regression method, based on a parametric approach to trend detection. Results show that very few statistically significant decreasing trends can be detected at the sub-daily and daily timescales. Some decreasing trends in extreme rainfall events were localized in the south and southeast. These results could enhance the implementation of adaptation systems to flood risk.

Description: Previous field research on the Horqin Sandy Land (China), which has suffered from severe desertification during recent decades, revealed how land use on a sand-dune topography affects both land degradation and restoration. This study aimed to depict the spatial distribution of local land use in order to shed more light on previous field findings regarding policies on a broader scale. We performed the following analyses with Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping (PRISM) and Advanced Visible and Near Infrared Radiometer type 2 (AVNIR-2) images of Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS): (1) object-based classification to discriminate preliminary classification of land-use types that were approximately differentiated by ordinary pixel-based analysis with spectral information; (2) digital photogrammetry to generate a digital surface model (DSM) with adequately high accuracy to represent undulating sand-dune topography; (3) geographic information system (GIS) analysis to classify major topographic types with the digital surface model (DSM); and (4) overlay of the two classification results to depict the local land-use types. The overall accuracies of the object-based and GIS-based classifications were high, at 93% (kappa statistic: 0.84) and 89% (kappa statistic: 0.81), respectively. The resultant local land-use map represents areas covered in previous field studies, showing where and how land degradation and restoration are likely to occur. This research can contribute to future environmental surveys, models, and policies in the study area.

Description: The physical security strategy in the wireless network with a single-antenna eavesdropper is studied. The information transmits from a single-antenna source to a single-antenna destination, and an energy-limited multi-antenna relay is employed to forward information. The antennas of the relay are divided into two groups. One group receives and forwards information, and the other converts the received signal into energy. Beamforming is used by the relay to prevent the eavesdropper from intercepting confidential information. For the purpose of maximizing the secrecy rate, antenna grouping and beamforming vectors are designed. A low complexity scheme of antenna grouping is presented. The simulation results show that the secrecy rate can be significantly improved by arranging part of the antennas for energy harvesting, and part for forwarding and optimizing the beamforming vector at the relay. The antenna grouping scheme significantly reduces the computational complexity at the cost of acceptable performance loss.

Description: The actual bus headway often deviates from the planned departure frequency because of external factors, such as traffic conditions and public transport demand, leading to transit resource waste and reducing the quality of service. In view of the existing shortcomings of the current dispatching strategy, a mixed integer programming model, integrating a bus-holding and stop-skipping strategy, is constructed to improve transit service with a minimum cost. The real-time optimal holding and stop-skipping strategies can be obtained by solving the proposed model using the Lagrangian relaxation algorithm. A numerical example is conducted using real transit GPS (Global Position System) and IC (Intelligent Card) data in Harbin. The results show that compared to a single control strategy, the proposed hybrid model is a better trade-off between the quality of the transit service and the operation cost. Notably, such a strategy would produce a minimal passengers’ average travel time coefficient. It is a great help for promoting the transit service level and increasing competitiveness.

Description: Islands present sustainable energy growth challenges due to a number of reasons such as remoteness, limited energy resources, vulnerability to external events and strong dependence on international trade agreements. In particular, the Dodecanese Islands of the Aegean Sea cover their electricity needs mostly on the basis of autonomous conventional stations, consuming significant quantities of imported oil annually. Renewable energy sources (RES) penetration increase addresses the global requirements towards a carbon neutral environment, and wind farms (WFs) are among the most well-known green electricity-production alternatives. The study explores wind power installation potential of the Dodecanese Islands and the storage or interconnection options, based on the national and European legislative framework and the international scientific literature. The major finding is that, due to the high wind potential of the area, the National policy and targets focus on the installation of great RES power at Greek islands. Hence, private interests, who are willing to carry out the electrical interconnection of islands to the mainland, serve the same objective. Both scientific and business proposals overcome the local wind power installation capacity and neglect local specifics and needs.

Description: Carbon neutrality represents one climate strategy adopted by many cities, including the city of Helsinki and the Helsinki metropolitan area in Finland. This study examines initiatives adopted by the Helsinki metropolitan area aimed at reducing energy-related carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality through future actions. Various sectorial energy consumption rates per year and carbon emissions from various sectors within the city of Helsinki and the metropolitan area were extracted from an online database and re-calculated (in GWh, MWh/inhabitant and MtCO2e, KtCO2e/inhabitant). We employed a backcasting scenario method to explore the various carbon reduction measures in the Helsinki metropolitan area. About 96% of the emissions produced in the Helsinki metropolitan area are energy-based. District heating represents the primary source of emissions, followed by transportation and electricity consumption, respectively. We also found that accomplishing the carbon reduction strategies of the Helsinki metropolitan area by 2050 remains challenging. Technological advancement for clean and renewable energy sources, smart policies and raising awareness resulting in behavioral changes greatly affect carbon reduction actions. Thus, strong political commitments are also required to formulate and implement stringent climate actions.

Description: Recent security breaches show the need to secure large, distributed, complex systems. A fundamental, but little discussed aspect of security is how to evaluate when a complete system is secure. Purely formal methods cannot handle this level of complexity. Code checking does not consider the interaction of separate modules working together and is hard to scale. Model-based approaches, such as patterns and problem frames, can be effective for handling large systems. Their use in evaluating security appears promising. A few works in this direction exist, but there is a need for more ideas. This Special Issue focuses on global, model-based, architectural, and systems-oriented evaluation methods.

Description: The assessment of mobility and functional impairments in the elderly is important for early detection and prevention of fall conditions. Falls create serious threats to health by causing disabling fractures that reduce independence in the elderly. Moreover, they exert heavy economic burdens on society due to high treatment costs. Modern smartphones enable the development of innovative mobile health (mHealth) applications by integrating a growing number of inertial and environmental sensors along with the ever-increasing data processing and communication capabilities. Mobility assessment is one of the promising mHealth application domains. In this paper, we introduce a suite of smartphone applications for assessing mobility in the elderly population. The suite currently includes smartphone applications that automate and quantify the following standardized medical tests for assessing mobility: Timed Up and Go (TUG), 30-Second Chair Stand Test (30SCS), and 4-Stage Balance Test (4SBT). For each application, we describe its functionality and a list of parameters extracted by processing signals from smartphone’s inertial sensors. The paper shows the results from studies conducted on geriatric patients for TUG tests and from experiments conducted in the laboratory on healthy subjects for 30SCS and 4SBT tests.

Description: A smooth function of the second moments of N continuous variables gives rise to an uncertainty relation if it is bounded from below. We present a method to systematically derive such bounds by generalizing an approach applied previously to a single continuous variable. New uncertainty relations are obtained for multi-partite systems that allow one to distinguish entangled from separable states. We also investigate the geometry of the “uncertainty region” in the N ( 2 N + 1 ) -dimensional space of moments. It is shown to be a convex set, and the points on its boundary are found to be in one-to-one correspondence with pure Gaussian states of minimal uncertainty. For a single degree of freedom, the boundary can be visualized as one sheet of a “Lorentz-invariant” hyperboloid in the three-dimensional space of second moments.

Description: This review of the study “Road to Dawei”, conducted by WWF Greater Mekong, seeks to assess economic, social and environmental impacts of road construction between Kanchanaburi, Thailand and Dawei, Myanmar. It also aims to identify relevant Green Economy policy interventions that would enhance the sustainable use and conservation of natural capital, which is considered to be a foundation for sustainable and inclusive economic development. In particular, the study concentrates on the identification of feedback loops, delays and nonlinearity in order to properly map the socio-economic and environmental system analysed and inform decision making. Results are presented for three different scenarios both for Myanmar and for Thailand. Simulation results show that a conventional approach to road construction is likely to have positive economic impacts in the region, especially in the short term, but also negative consequences for the integrity of the ecosystem, which in turn might also negatively impact on the investment itself and its economic outcomes in the medium and longer term. Further, results indicate that green economy interventions would mitigate environmental risks by creating synergies across sectors, systemically.

Description: Food security depends on seed security and the international seed industry must be able to continue to deliver the quantities of quality seed required for this purpose. Abiotic stress resulting from climate change, particularly elevated temperature and water stress, will reduce seed yield and quality. Options for the seed industry to adapt to climate change include moving sites for seed production, changing sowing date, and the development of cultivars with traits which allow them to adapt to climate change conditions. However, the ability of seed growers to make these changes is directly linked to the seed system. In the formal seed system operating in developed countries, implementation will be reasonably straight forward. In the informal system operating in developing countries, the current seed production challenges including supply failing to meet demand and poor seed quality will increase with changing climates.

Description: An analysis of the kinematics of a flapping membrane wing using experimental kinematic data is presented. This motion capture technique tracks the positon of the retroreflective marker(s) placed on the left wing of a 1.3-m-wingspan ornithopter. The time-varying three-dimensional data of the wing kinematics were recorded for a single frequency. The wing shape data was then plotted on a two-dimensional plane to understand the wing dynamic behaviour of an ornithopter. Specifically, the wing tip path, leading edge bending, wing membrane shape, local twist, stroke angle and wing velocity were analyzed. As the three characteristic angles can be expressed in the Fourier series as a function of time, the kinematics of the wing can be computationally generated for the aerodynamic study of flapping flight through the Fourier coefficients presented. Analysis of the ornithopter wing showed how the ornithopter closely mimics the flight motions of birds despite several physical limitations.

Description: Social ties play an important role in agricultural knowledge exchange, particularly in developing countries with high exposure to agriculture development interventions. Institutions often facilitate agricultural training projects, with a focus on agroecological practices, such as agroforestry and agrobiodiversity. The structural characteristics of social networks amongst land managers influences decision-making to adopt such adaptive agroecoloigcal practice; however, the extent of knowledge transfer beyond direct project participants is often unknown. Using a social network approach, we chart the structure of agrarian knowledge networks (n = 131) in six communities, which have been differentially exposed to agriculture development interventions in Ghana. Farmer network size, density and composition were distinctly variable; development project-affiliated farmers were embedded in larger networks, had non-affiliated farmers within their networks, were engaged in more diverse agricultural production and reported adopting and adapting agroecological practice more frequently. Such bridging ties that link across distinctive groups in a network can expose network members to new and innovative agroecological practices, such as increasing agrobiodiversity, thus, contributing to livelihood strategies that mitigate environmental and market risk. Furthermore, we show that these knowledge networks were crop-specific where network size varied given the type of crop produced. Such factors, which may influence the rate and extent of agroecological knowledge diffusion, are critical for the effectiveness of land management practices as well as the persistence of agriculture development interventions.

Description: Birds are an important part of the agricultural landscape, as having nature value, but also as pest control agents and bio-indicators for the health of the environment. Here we look at linear non-crop elements in agricultural areas as a potential source of food for nestlings of avian species. We measured invertebrate availability as it relates to structural complexity at the local and landscape levels in three counties in central Illinois. Invertebrates were measured with taxonomic diversity, abundance, and estimated biomass during spring of 2012 and 2013. Our study shows that easily modifiable field edge characteristics have the greatest impact on invertebrate diversity and abundance, as compared to field and landscape features. This finding shows that a potential invertebrate food source as measured by both diversity and biomass, may be easily enhanced without changes to agricultural practices.

Description: Is it possible to quantify the information content of accounting reports? If possible, then how? This study examines accounting as a classical communication system with the purpose of providing a framework with which to approach these fundamentally important questions. Information theory was established in the early-mid 20th century to describe the properties of classical communication systems. Applying concepts from this theory to an accounting context provides insight into the questions asked above. Specifically, a measure of the information content of financial statement numbers is developed from these information theory concepts. The measure is also applied to several large companies’ earnings numbers and aids in predicting their price movements.

Description: Despite their unrivalled value in livestock systems, certain temperate, pasture, legume species and varieties may contain phytoestrogens which can lower flock/herd fertility. Such compounds, whose chemical structure and biological activity resembles that of estradiol-17α, include the isoflavones that have caused devastating effects (some of them permanent) on the fertility of many Australian sheep flocks. While the persistence of old ‘oestrogenic’ ecotypes of subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum) in pasture remains a risk, genetic improvement has been most effective in lowering isoflavone production in Trifolium species; infertility due to ‘clover disease’ has been greatly reduced. Coumestans, which can be produced in Medicago species responding to stress, remain a potential risk in cultivars susceptible to, for example, foliar diseases. In the field, coumestrol is often not detected in healthy vegetative Medicago species. Wide variation in its concentration is influenced by environmental factors and stage of growth. Biotic stress is the most studied environmental factor and, in lucerne/alfalfa (Medicago sativa), it is the major determinant of oestrogenicity. Concentrations up to 90 mg coumestrol/kg (all concentrations expressed as DM) have been recorded for lucerne damaged by aphids and up to 600 mg/kg for lucerne stressed by foliar disease(s). Other significant coumestans, e.g., 4’-methoxy-coumestrol, are usually present at the same time. Concentrations exceeding 2000 mg coumestrol/kg have been recorded in diseased, annual species of Medicago. Oestrogenicity of some Medicago species is also influenced by maturity and senescence. Studies in Israel, North America, Europe, New Zealand and Australia have confirmed that coumestans in lucerne, represent an acute or sub-acute loss of reproductive efficiency in herbivores, e.g., sheep, cattle, and possibly horses. When sufficiently exposed peri-conception, coumestrol, sometimes present in lucerne, be it as pasture, hay, silage, pellets, meal, and sprouts, is associated with what can be an insidious, asymptomatic, infertility syndrome. Most livestock research with oestrogenic lucerne has been conducted with sheep. Ewes may be at risk when the coumestrol concentration in their diet exceeds 25 mg/kg. In studies where lambing was compared for lucerne and a phytoestrogen-free treatment, the mean decrease in lambs born/ewe was 13%; ewes on lucerne, exhibited a lower frequency of multiple births.

Description: Anthropogenic noise emission in the marine environment is a key issue nowadays and has drawn the attention of regulatory bodies in various nations. In particular, the noise generated during the installation of foundation piles for the offshore wind industry is considered to be harmful for aquatic species. A reliable prediction of the underwater noise during the installation of a foundation pile is thus essential for the proper assessment of the ecological impact. In this paper, the structure-borne wave radiation is investigated with the help of a semi-analytical model for two cases. The first case considers a pile that is installed with the help of an impact hammer, whereas the second one deals with a pile that is driven into the seabed with the help of a vibratory device. The spatial distribution and the frequency content of the radiated sound are analyzed, and the differences are highlighted between the two cases. The model is validated with data available in the literature that were collected during several measurement campaigns. Subsequently, the predicted noise levels are converted into an equivalent index that reflects the auditory damage to certain marine species, and a method is presented for the derivation of zones of impact around the pile that are based on the noise predictions by the models and the chosen method of installation. This approach can be used to define critical zones within which a predefined level of auditory damage is to be expected based on a specific installation scenario.

Description: This paper deals with the problem of securing the configuration phase of an Internet of Things (IoT) system. The main drawbacks of current approaches are the focus on specific techniques and methods, and the lack of a cross layer vision of the problem. In a smart environment, each IoT device has limited resources and is often battery operated with limited capabilities (e.g., no keyboard). As a consequence, network security must be carefully analyzed in order to prevent security and privacy issues. In this paper, we will analyze the IoT threats, we will propose a security framework for the device initialization and we will show how physical layer security can effectively boost the security of IoT systems.

Description: Extreme weather and climate change can have a significant impact on all types of infrastructure and assets, regardless of location, with the potential for human casualties, physical damage to assets, disruption of operations, economic and community distress, and environmental degradation. This paper describes a methodology for using extreme weather and climate data to identify climate-related risks and to quantify the potential impact of extreme weather events on certain types of transportation infrastructure as part of a vulnerability screening assessment. This screening assessment can be especially useful when a large number of assets or large geographical areas are being studied, with the results enabling planners and asset managers to undertake a more detailed assessment of vulnerability on a more targeted number of assets or locations. The methodology combines climate, weather, and impact data to identify vulnerabilities to a range of weather and climate related risks over a multi-decadal planning period. The paper applies the methodology to perform an extreme weather and climate change vulnerability screening assessment on transportation infrastructure assets for the State of Tennessee. This paper represents the results of one of the first efforts at spatial vulnerability assessments of transportation infrastructure and provides important insights for any organization considering the impact of climate and weather events on transportation or other critical infrastructure systems.

Description: Climate change will have large impacts on water resources and its predictions are fraught with uncertainties in West Africa. With the current global drive for renewable energy due to climate change, there is a need for understanding the effects of hydro-climatic changes on water resources and hydropower generation. A hydrological model was used to model runoff inflow into the largest hydroelectric dam (Kainji) in the Niger Basin (West Africa) under present and future conditions. Inflow to the reservoir was simulated using hydro-climatic data from a set of dynamically downscaled 8 global climate models (GCM) with two emission scenarios from the CORDEX-Africa regional downscaling experiment, driven with CMIP5 data. Observed records of the Kainji Lake were used to develop a hydroelectricity production model to simulate future energy production for the reservoir. Results indicate an increase in inflow into the reservoir and concurrent increases in hydropower production for the majority of the GCM data under the two scenarios. This analysis helps planning hydropower schemes for sustainable hydropower production.

Description: Passive positioning systems with a small aperture array exhibit poor accuracy of target estimation under strong interference in near-field environments. To improve this accuracy, we propose a novel cross localization algorithm for direction-finding using the orientation angle. Improved geometric and numerical target-positioning models are constructed after analyzing the mechanism of the conventional positioning algorithm. The target prediction equation is then derived using the constructed models, and the equation for nonlinear estimation is linearized using the Taylor series. An unbiased estimation of the target is obtained by optimizing the control of the iteration process, thus achieving an accurate positioning of the target. The performance of the proposed algorithm was evaluated in terms of its effectiveness and positioning accuracy under varying signal-to-noise conditions and orientation angle-measurement errors. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is capable of positioning the target effectively, and offers better positioning accuracy than traditional algorithms under the conditions of large orientation angle measurement errors or high-level background noise.

Description: The Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization (TLBO) algorithm has been proposed in recent years. It is a new swarm intelligence optimization algorithm simulating the teaching-learning phenomenon of a classroom. In this paper, a novel global path planning method for mobile robots is presented, which is based on an improved TLBO algorithm called Nonlinear Inertia Weighted Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization (NIWTLBO) algorithm in our previous work. Firstly, the NIWTLBO algorithm is introduced. Then, a new map model of the path between start-point and goal-point is built by coordinate system transformation. Lastly, utilizing the NIWTLBO algorithm, the objective function of the path is optimized; thus, a global optimal path is obtained. The simulation experiment results show that the proposed method has a faster convergence rate and higher accuracy in searching for the path than the basic TLBO and some other algorithms as well, and it can effectively solve the optimization problem for mobile robot global path planning.

Description: Smallholder farming in the Brazilian Amazon has changed markedly over the last few decades, following a pervasive swing to cattle production observed across the basin. These changes have brought opportunities for accumulating a modicum of wealth that were not available in the early stages of colonization. At the same time, they have reconfigured livelihood systems away from diversified agriculture to a strong engagement with the cattle economy. They are also exposing smallholders to new forms of exploitation by transnational corporations, seeking to pass risk upstream to less powerful economic agents who provide inputs to production, such as calves. The case of Southeastern Pará provides a natural laboratory for investigating such phenomena, which the article considers through the presentation of data from field research conducted in the region over the past decade. Here, agrarian reform efforts have been particularly intense, and social movements have often espoused a green rhetoric in favor of diversified agriculture, even though smallholders show little interest in anything but cattle. Household level incentives promote Amazonia’s emergent cattle economy, demonstrating how global production networks have reached into the basin, where production relations between smallholders provisioning calves to large ranching operations often resemble what has been referred to in the literature as “contract farming” land grabs, given the exploitive terms of trade.

Description: This paper studies the problem of optimal reinsurance contract design. We let the insurer use dual utility, and the premium is an extended Wang’s premium principle. The novel contribution is that we allow for heterogeneity in the beliefs regarding the underlying probability distribution. We characterize layer-reinsurance as an optimal reinsurance contract. Moreover, we characterize layer-reinsurance as optimal contracts when the insurer faces costs of holding regulatory capital. We illustrate this in cases where both firms use the Value-at-Risk or the conditional Value-at-Risk.

Description: We study risk-minimization for a large class of insurance contracts. Given that the individual progress in time of visiting an insurance policy’s states follows an F -doubly stochastic Markov chain, we describe different state-dependent types of insurance benefits. These cover single payments at maturity, annuity-type payments and payments at the time of a transition. Based on the intensity of the F -doubly stochastic Markov chain, we provide the Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe decomposition for a general insurance contract and specify risk-minimizing strategies in a Brownian financial market setting. The results are further illustrated explicitly within an affine structure for the intensity.

Description: The intermarket analysis, in particular the lead–lag relationship, plays an important role within financial markets. Therefore, a mathematical approach to be able to find interrelations between the price development of two different financial instruments is developed in this paper. Computing the differences of the relative positions of relevant local extrema of two charts, i.e., the local phase shifts of these price developments, gives us an empirical distribution on the unit circle. With the aid of directional statistics, such angular distributions are studied for many pairs of markets. It is shown that there are several very strongly correlated financial instruments in the field of foreign exchange, commodities and indexes. In some cases, one of the two markets is significantly ahead with respect to the relevant local extrema, i.e., there is a phase shift unequal to zero between them.

Description: This study aimed to elucidate seasonal dynamics of ryegrass root systems in field swards. Established field swards of perennial ryegrass with white clover removed by herbicide and fertilised with nitrogen (N) to replace clover N fixation were subjected to lax and hard grazing management and root biomass deposition monitored using a root ingrowth core technique over a 13 month period. A previously published phytomer-based model of plant morphology that assumes continuous turnover of the root system was used to estimate mean individual root weight (mg) not previously available for field swards. The predicted root weights compared credibly with root data from hydroponic culture and the model output explained much of the seasonal variation in the field data. In particular, root deposition showed a seasonality consistent with influence of an architectural signal (AS) determined by plant morphology. This AS arises because it is theoretically expected that with rising temperatures and decreasing phyllochron in early summer, more than one leaf on average would feed each root bearing node. Conversely, in autumn the reverse would apply and root deposition is expected to be suppressed. The phytomer-based model was also able to explain deeper root penetration in summer dry conditions, as seen in the field data. A prediction of the model is that even though total root deposition is reduced by less than 10% under hard grazing, individual root weight is reduced proportionately more because the available substrate is being shared between a higher population of tillers. Two features of the field data not explained by the phytomer based model, and therefore suggestive of hormonal signaling, were peaks of root production after summer drought and in late winter that preceded associated herbage mass rises by about one month. In summary, this research supports a view that the root system of ryegrass is turning over on a continuous basis, like the leaves above ground. The phytomer based model was able to explain much of the seasonal variation in root deposition in field swards, and also predicts a shift of root deposition activity, deeper in summer and shallower in winter.