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  • Articles  (13)
  • Global Warming  (13)
  • Oxford University Press  (13)
  • American Geophysical Union
  • Geological Society of America
  • 2015-2019  (13)
  • 1985-1989
  • 1970-1974
  • Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition  (13)
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  • Articles  (13)
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  • Oxford University Press  (13)
  • American Geophysical Union
  • Geological Society of America
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  • 1
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    Trade Liberalization versus Climate Change Policy for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Agriculture: Some Insights from Norway (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-08-11
    Description: Using a mathematical programming model of Norwegian agriculture, we explore interconnections between trade liberalization and reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We show that the Doha Round proposals for a new agreement on agriculture through the World Trade Organization would not generate significant reductions in emissions. Further trade liberalization would reduce emissions by cutting agricultural production but would not change production methods. Imposing a carbon tax would lead both to a reduction in output and the extensification of production. In contrast, if farmers are allowed to claim a credit for carbon sequestration the effect is to intensify agricultural production.
    Keywords: F18 - Trade and Environment, Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 2
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    Dealing with Uncertainty in Agent-Based Simulation: Farm-Level Modeling of Adaptation to Climate Change in Southwest Germany (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: Climate change will most likely confront agricultural producers with natural, economic, and political conditions that have not previously been observed and are largely uncertain. As a consequence, extrapolation from past data reaches its limits, and a process-based analysis of farmer adaptation is required. Simulation of changes in crop yields using crop growth models is a first step in that direction. However, changes in crop yields are only one pathway through which climate change affects agricultural production. A meaningful process-based analysis of farmer adaptation requires a whole-farm analysis at the farm level. We use a highly disaggregated mathematical programming model to analyze farm-level climate change adaptation for a mountainous area in southwest Germany. Regional-level results are obtained by simulating each full-time farm holding in the study area. We address parameter uncertainty and model underdetermination using a cautious calibration approach and a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. We deal with the resulting computational burden using efficient experimental designs and high-performance computing. We show that in our study area, shifted crop management time slots can have potentially significant effects on agricultural supply, incomes, and various policy objectives promoted under German and European environmental policy schemes. The simulated effects are robust against model uncertainty and underline the importance of a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts beyond merely looking at crop yield changes. Our simulations demonstrate how farm-level models can contribute to a process-based analysis of climate change adaptation if they are embedded into a systematic framework for treating inherent model uncertainty.
    Keywords: C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis, C63 - Computational Techniques, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 3
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    Irrigation Decisions for Major West Coast Crops: Water Scarcity and Climatic Determinants (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: This article uses the 2007 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey database developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to assess the impact of water scarcity and climate on irrigation decisions for producers of specialty crops, wheat, and forage crops. We estimate an irrigation management model for major crops in the West Coast (California, Oregon, and Washington), which includes a farm-level equation of irrigated share and crop-specific equations of technology adoption and water application rate (orchard/vineyard, vegetable, wheat, alfalfa, hay, and pasture). We find that economic and physical water scarcity, climate, and extreme weather, such as frost, extreme heat, and drought, significantly impact producers’ irrigation decisions. Producers use sprinkler technologies or additional water applications to mitigate risk of crop damage from extreme weather. Water application rates are least responsive to surface water cost or groundwater well depth for producers of orchard/vineyard. Water supply institutions influence producers’ irrigation decisions. Producers who receive water from federal agencies use higher water application rates and are less likely to adopt water-saving irrigation technologies for some crops. Institutional arrangements, including access to distinct water sources (surface or ground) and whether surface water cost is fee based, also affect the responsiveness of water application rates to changes in surface water cost. The analysis provides valuable information about how producers in irrigated agricultural production systems would respond and adapt to water pricing policies and climate change.
    Keywords: Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q16 - R&D ; Agricultural Technology ; Agricultural Extension Services, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 4
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    Drought Index Insurance for the Central Valley Project in California (2016)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2016-08-20
    Description: A multi-year drought has taken a severe toll on the agricultural economy of California’s Central Valley. Index insurance is an instrument with the potential to protect water users from economic losses due to periodic water shortages. An index insurance product based on the Sacramento Index and adapted to the Central Valley Project water supply is proposed. To address the potential for intertemporal adverse selection, three product designs are suggested: (1) "early bird" insurance; (2) variable premium insurance; and (3) variable deductible insurance. The performance of the designs are assessed using loss functions from the Westlands Water District in the San Joaquin Valley.
    Keywords: Q14 - Agricultural Finance, Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 5
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    Quality Matters More Than Quantity: Asymmetric Temperature Effects on Crop Yield and Quality Grade (2016)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-07-09
    Description: Climate change affects agriculture by altering not only output quantity, but also crop quality. We quantify the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture through changes in both quantity and quality, where quality is measured by crop grades. Our model controls for methodological issues regarding sample selection, aggregation, phenology, and nonlinearity. The empirical application to Japanese rice production indicates that temperature effects are asymmetric: quantity is especially vulnerable to cold, whereas quality is vulnerable to extremely high temperature. Using these results, we simulate the effect of global warming, and we find that warming (a 3 °C increase) increases farm revenues by improving yield but decreases revenues as a result of deteriorating quality. The net effect is negative, suggesting that quality matters more than quantity. The negative effect, however, can be mitigated by shifting cultivation periods and/or regions. Overall, our results suggest that the estimated impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies could be severely misleading unless quality is considered.
    Keywords: L15 - Information and Product Quality ; Standardization and Compatibility, Q10 - General, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 6
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    Optimal Directions for Directional Distance Functions: An Exploration of Potential Reductions of Greenhouse Gases (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: This article explores the reduction potential of greenhouse gases for major pollution-emitting countries of the world using nonparametric productivity measurement methods and directional distance functions. In contrast to the existing literature, we apply optimization methods to endogenously determine optimal directions for the efficiency analysis. These directions represent the compromise of output enhancement and emissions reduction. The results show that for reasonable directions the adoption of best practices would lead to sizable emission reductions in a range of approximately 20% compared with current levels.
    Keywords: C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods, D24 - Production ; Cost ; Capital and Total Factor Productivity ; Capacity, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 7
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    Distributional Implications of Climate Change in Rural India: A General Equilibrium Approach (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: We develop a general equilibrium framework, based on a specific-factors trade model, to quantify the medium-term household welfare impacts of global warming in rural India. Using an hedonic approach grounded in the theory combined with detailed microdata, we estimate that three decades of warming will reduce agricultural productivity in the range of 7%–13%, with the arid northwest of India especially hard hit. Our analysis shows that the proportional welfare cost of climate change is likely to be both modest and evenly distributed across percentiles of the per capita income distribution, but this latter conclusion emerges only when the flexibility of rural wages is taken into account.
    Keywords: Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 8
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    Endogenous farm-type selection, endogenous irrigation, and spatial effects in Ricardian models of climate change (2016)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: In the estimation of Ricardian models the endogeneity of adaptation measures is typically ignored. In this article we propose a new estimation strategy that explicitly recognises the endogeneity of the farm type and irrigation to climate. Based on the latest census data on over 270,000 farms in Germany, we estimate a cross-sectional, spatial-IV model that decomposes the effects of climate on farm profitability into direct (unmediated) and indirect (mediated by the variables that reflect adaptation). Our results show that neglecting the endogenous nature of adaptation measures may substantially bias the magnitude of the total effect of climate on farm profitability.
    Keywords: C21 - Cross-Sectional Models ; Spatial Models ; Treatment Effect Models, C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, C36- Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 9
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    Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: We investigate the effect of crop price and climate variables on rainfed corn and soybean yields and acreage in the United States using a large panel dataset for the 1977–2007 period. Instrumental variables are used to control for endogeneity of prices in yield and acreage regressions, while allowing for spatially auto-correlated errors. We find that an increase in corn price has a statistically significant positive impact on corn yield, but the effect of soybean price on soybean yields is not statistically significant. The estimated price elasticities of corn yield and acreage are 0.23 and 0.45, respectively. Of the increase in corn supply caused by an increase in corn price, we find that 33.8% is due to price-induced yield enhancement and 66.2% is due to price-induced acreage expansion. We also find that the impact of climate change on corn production ranges from $-$ 7% to $-$ 41% and on soybean ranges from $-$ 8% to $-$ 45%, depending on the climate change scenarios, time horizon, and global climate models used to predict climate change. We show that the aggregate net impact of omitting price variables is an overestimation of the effect of climate change on corn yield by up to 9% and on soybean yield by up to 15%.
    Keywords: Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices, Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 10
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    Dynamic Adjustment in US Agriculture under Climate Change (2016)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2016-04-24
    Description: We construct a stochastic dynamic dual model to investigate the structural adjustment of two aggregate output and three aggregate input categories in US agriculture under stochastic climatic change. More than a century of national annual data (1910–2011) is used in the empirical analysis. No constraints on asset fixity are imposed. Results indicate that, with rational expectations, both output categories as well as all input categories exhibit quasi-fixity in response to market change and stochastic climate change. Crops adjust more than twice as fast as livestock—49% versus 20% of the way toward their long-run equilibrium in one year. Fertilizer adjusts most rapidly toward equilibrium levels (88% in one year), and capital adjusts most slowly (5% in one year). Labor oscillates rather than converging smoothly toward equilibrium; its distance from equilibrium is the same as if it adjusted 59% of the way toward its optimal level in one year. Failing to anticipate climate change dramatically slows the estimated rate of adjustment for two netputs and modestly speeds the rate for two others, thus likely increasing overall adjustment costs. Failing to account for uncertainty in anticipated climate change has little impact on adjustment rates.
    Keywords: Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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