ALBERT

Description: Microbial mats collected at cold methane seeps in the Black Sea carry out anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) to carbon dioxide using sulfate as the electron acceptor. These mats, which predominantly consist of sulfate-reducing bacteria and archaea of the ANME-1 and ANME-2 type, contain large amounts of proteins very similar to methyl-coenzyme M reductase from methanogenic archaea. Mass spectrometry of mat samples revealed the presence of two nickel-containing cofactors in comparable amounts, one with the same mass as coenzyme F430 from methanogens (m/z = 905) and one with a mass that is 46 Da higher (m/z = 951). The two cofactors were isolated and purified, and their constitution and absolute configuration were determined. The cofactor with m/z = 905 was proven to be identical to coenzyme F430 from methanogens. For the m/z = 951 species, high resolution ICP-MS pointed to F430 + CH2S as the molecular formula, and LA-ICP-SF MS finally confirmed the presence of one sulfur atom per nickel. Esterification gave two stereoisomeric pentamethyl esters with m/z = 1021, which could be purified by reverse phase HPLC and were subjected to comprehensive NMR analysis, allowing determination of their constitution and configuration as (172S)−172-methylthio-F430 pentamethyl ester and (172R)−172-methylthio-F430 pentamethyl ester. The corresponding diastereoisomeric pentaacids could also be separated by HPLC and were correlated to the esters via mild hydrolysis of the latter. Equilibration of the pentaacids under acid catalysis showed that the (172S) isomer is the naturally occurring albeit thermodynamically less stable one. The more stable (172R) isomer (80% at equilibrium) is an isolation artifact generated under the acidic conditions necessary for the isolation of the cofactors from the calcium carbonate-encrusted mats.

Description: Arctic sea ice area (SIA) during late summer and early fall decreased substantially over the last four decades, and its decline accelerated beginning in the early 2000s. Statistical analyses of observations show that enhanced poleward moisture transport from the North Pacific to the Arctic Ocean contributed to the accelerated SIA decrease during the most recent period. As a consequence, specific humidity in the Arctic Pacific sector significantly increased along with an increase of downward longwave radiation beginning in 2002, which led to a significant acceleration in the decline of SIA in the Arctic Pacific sector. The resulting sea ice loss led to increased evaporation in the Arctic Ocean, resulting in a further increase of the specific humidity in mid-to-late fall, thus acting as a positive feedback to the sea ice loss. The overall set of processes is also found in a long control simulation of a coupled climate model.

Description: In the present study, the influence of some major tropical modes of variability on northern hemisphere regional blocking frequency variability during boreal winter is investigated. Reanalysis data and an ensemble experiment with the ECMWF model using relaxation towards the ERA-Interim reanalysis data inside the tropics are used. The tropical modes under investigation are El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the upper tropospheric equatorial zonal-mean zonal wind . An early (late) MJO phase refers to the part of the MJO cycle when enhanced (suppressed) precipitation occurs over the western Indian Ocean and suppressed (enhanced) precipitation occurs over the Maritime Continent and the western tropical Pacific. Over the North Pacific sector, it is found that enhanced (suppressed) high latitude blocking occurs in association with El Niño (La Niña) events, late (early) MJO phases and westerly (easterly) . Over central to southern Europe and the east Atlantic, it is found that late MJO phases, as well as a suppressed MJO are leading to enhanced blocking frequency. Furthermore, early (late) MJO phases are followed by blocking anomalies over the western North Atlantic region, similar to those associated with a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation. Over northern Europe, the easterly (westerly) phase of is associated with enhanced (suppressed) blocking. These results are largely confirmed by both the reanalysis and the model experiment.

Description: Marine methane hydrate in sands has huge potential as an unconventional gas resource; however, no field test of their production potential had been conducted. Here, we report the world’s first offshore methane hydrate production test conducted at the eastern Nankai Trough and show key findings toward future commercial production. Geological analysis indicates that hydrate saturation reaches 80% and permeability in the presence of hydrate ranges from 0.01 to 10 mdarcies. Permeable (1–10 mdarcies) highly hydrate-saturated layers enable depressurization-induced gas production of approximately 20,000 Sm3/D with water of 200 m3/D. Numerical analysis reveals that the dissociation zone expands laterally 25 m at the front after 6 days. Gas rate is expected to increase with time, owing to the expansion of the dissociation zone. It is found that permeable highly hydrate-saturated layers increase the gas–water ratio of the production fluid. The identification of such layers is critically important to increase the energy efficiency and the technical feasibility of depressurization-induced gas production from hydrate reservoirs.

Description: The guest-exchange method (or replacement) for methane production from gas hydrates has recently received attention because it can be used for both carbon dioxide sequestration and methane production. The structure of gas hydrates is maintained as a structure I (sI) hydrate while methane molecules are exchanged with carbon dioxide. In this study, CH4 + CO2 mixed gas hydrates were examined under terahertz light at various temperatures to simulate CH4–CO2 exchange reactions. Each gas hydrate composition examined was a representative composition at each step of the exchange reaction. The molecular composition was also accurately analyzed by gas chromatography. Refractive indices calculated by the terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) of gas hydrate samples were correlated to the guest composition, and this novel method was proven to be used to quantify the extent of replacement via optical constant. Furthermore, changes in the water framework from the sI hydrate to ice using THz-TDS were investigated with an increasing temperature. Overall, this study reveals the process of guest exchange and phase transition from a gas hydrate to ice via the optical properties in the terahertz region, and it offers a powerful tool in gas hydrate production.

Description: Marine zooplankton comprise a phylogenetically and functionally diverse assemblage of protistan and metazoan consumers that occupy multiple trophic levels in pelagic food webs. Within this complex network, carbon flows via alternative zooplankton pathways drive temporal and spatial variability in production-grazing coupling, nutrient cycling, export, and transfer efficiency to higher trophic levels. We explore current knowledge of the processing of zooplankton food ingestion by absorption, egestion, respiration, excretion, and growth (production) processes. On a global scale, carbon fluxes are reasonably constrained by the grazing impact of microzooplankton and the respiratory requirements of mesozooplankton but are sensitive to uncertainties in trophic structure. The relative importance, combined magnitude, and efficiency of export mechanisms (mucous feeding webs, fecal pellets, molts, carcasses, and vertical migrations) likewise reflect regional variability in community structure. Climate change is expected to broadly alter carbon cycling by zooplankton and to have direct impacts on key species.

Description: Mixing efficiency is the ratio of the net change in potential energy to the energy expended in producing the mixing. Parameterizations of efficiency and of related mixing coefficients are needed to estimate diapycnal diffusivity from measurements of the turbulent dissipation rate. Comparing diffusivities from microstructure profiling with those inferred from the thickening rate of four simultaneous tracer releases has verified, within observational accuracy, 0.2 as the mixing coefficient over a 30-fold range of diapycnal diffusivities. Although some mixing coefficients can be estimated from pycnocline measurements, at present mixing efficiency must be obtained from channel flows, laboratory experiments, and numerical simulations. Reviewing the different approaches demonstrates that estimates and parameterizations for mixing efficiency and coefficients are not converging beyond the at-sea comparisons with tracer releases, leading to recommendations for a community approach to address this important issue.

Description: The Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) associated with the Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) in the western subtropical South Pacific is known to exhibit substantial seasonal and decadal variability. Using an eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model, which is able to reproduce the observed, salient features of the seasonal cycles of shear, stratification, baroclinic production and the associated EKE, we investigate the decadal changes of EKE. We show that the STCC region exhibits, uniquely among the subtropical gyres of the world’s oceans, significant, atmospherically forced, decadal EKE variability. The decadal variations are driven by changing vertical shear between the STCC in the upper 300 m and the South Equatorial Current below, predominantly caused by variations in STCC strength associated with a changing meridional density gradient. In the 1970s, an increased meridional density gradient results in EKE twice as large as in later decades in the model. Utilizing sensitivity experiments, decadal variations in the wind field are shown to be the essential driver. Local wind stress curl anomalies associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) lead to up- and downwelling of the thermocline, inducing strengthening or weakening of the STCC and the associated EKE. Additionally, remote wind stress curl anomalies in the eastern subtropical South Pacific, which are not related to the IPO, generate density anomalies that propagate westward as Rossby waves and can account for up to 30–40 % of the density anomalies in the investigated region.

Description: The Indian Ocean has sustained robust surface warming in recent decades, but the role of multi-decadal variability remains unclear. Using ocean model hindcasts, characteristics of low-frequency Indian Ocean temperature variations are explored. Simulated upper-ocean temperature changes across the Indian Ocean in the hindcast are consistent with those recorded in observational products and ocean reanalyses. Indian Ocean temperatures exhibit strong warming trends since the 1950s limited to the surface and south of 30°S, while extensive subsurface cooling occurs over much of the tropical Indian Ocean. Previous work focused on diagnosing causes of these long-term trends in the Indian Ocean over the second half of the 20th Century. Instead, the temporal evolution of Indian Ocean subsurface heat content is shown here to reveal distinct multi-decadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the long-term trends are thus interpreted to result from aliasing of the low-frequency variability. Transmission of the multi-decadal signal occurs via an oceanic pathway through the Indonesian Throughflow and is manifest across the Indian Ocean centered along 12°S as westward propagating Rossby waves modulating thermocline and subsurface heat content variations. Resulting low-frequency changes in the eastern Indian Ocean thermocline depth are associated with decadal variations in the frequency of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, with positive IOD events unusually common in the 1960s and 1990s with a relatively shallow thermocline. In contrast, the deeper thermocline depth in the 1970s and 1980s is associated with frequent negative IOD and rare positive IOD events. Changes in Pacific wind forcing in recent decades and associated rapid increases in Indian Ocean subsurface heat content can thus affect the basin’s leading mode of variability, with implications for regional climate and vulnerable societies in surrounding countries.

Description: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Due to the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an increasing skill in forecasting them. However, it is unclear what the intrinsic limits of short-term predictability for the NAO and AO patterns are. This study compares the variability and predictability of both patterns, using a range of data and index computation methods for the daily NAO/AO indices. Small deviations from Gaussianity are found and characteristic decorrelation time scales of around one week. In the analysis of the Lyapunov spectrum it is found that predictability is not significantly different between the AO and NAO or between reanalysis products. Differences exist however between the indices based on EOF analysis, which exhibit predictability time scales around 12 - 16 days, and the station-based indices, exhibiting a longer predictability of 18 - 20 days. Both of these time scales indicate predictability beyond that currently obtained in ensemble prediction models for short-term predictability. Additional longer-term predictability for these patterns may be gained through local feedbacks and remote forcing mechanisms for particular atmospheric conditions.

Description: In the colloidal synthesis of iron sulfides, a series of dialkyl disulfides, alkyl thiols, and dialkyl disulfides (allyl, benzyl, tert-butyl, and phenyl) were employed as sulfur sources. Their reactivity was found to tune the phase between pyrite (FeS2), greigite (Fe3S4), and pyrrhotite (Fe7S8). DFT was used to show that sulfur-rich phases were favored when the C–S bond strength was low in the organosulfurs, yet temperature dependent studies and other observations indicated the reasons for phase selectivity were more nuanced; the different precursors decomposed through different reaction mechanisms, some involving the oleylamine solvent. The formation of pyrite from diallyl disulfide was carefully studied as it was the only precursor to yield FeS2. Raman spectroscopy indicated that FeS2 forms directly without an FeS intermediate, unlike most synthetic procedures to pyrite. Diallyl disulfide releases persulfide (S–S)2– due to the lower C–S bond strength relative to the S–S bond strength, as well as facile decomposition in the presence of amines through SN2′ mechanisms at elevated temperatures.

Description: The 13th European Polar Low Workshop was organized by the European Polar Low Working Group (www.uni-trier.de/index.php?id=20308)and gathered scientists from nine countries focusing on polar mesocyclones in both hemispheres and other mesoscale weather phenomena such as katabatic winds, tip jets, boundary layer fronts, cold air outbreaks, and weather extremes in polar regions. Topics included experimental, climatological, theoretical, modeling, and remote sensing studies. The aim was to bring together scientists and forecasters to present their latest work and recent findings on these topics and to encourage discussions on improving forecasting and understanding of these phenomena.

Description: The regional climate model COSMOin Climate Limited-AreaMode (COSMO-CLM or CCLM) is used with a high resolution of 15km for the entire Arctic for all winters 2002/03–2014/15. The simulations show a high spatial and temporal variability of the recent 2-m air temperature increase in the Arctic. The maximum warming occurs north of Novaya Zemlya in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea between March 2003 and 2012 and is responsible for up to a 208C increase. Land-based observations confirm the increase but do not cover the maximum regions that are located over the ocean and sea ice.Also, the 30-km version of theArctic SystemReanalysis (ASR) is used to verify the CCLM for the overlapping time period 2002/03–2011/12. The differences between CCLM and ASR 2-m air temperatures vary slightly within 18C for the ocean and sea ice area. Thus,ASR captures the extreme warming as well. The monthly 2-m air temperatures of observations and ERA-Interim data show a large variability for the winters 1979–2016. Nevertheless, the air temperature rise since the beginning of the twenty-first century is up to 8 times higher than in the decades before. The sea ice decrease is identified as the likely reason for the warming. The vertical temperature profiles show that the warming has a maximum near the surface, but a 0.58Cyr21 increase is found up to 2 km. CCLM, ASR, and also the coarser resolved ERA-Interim data show that February and March are the months with the highest 2-m air temperature increases, averaged over the ocean and sea ice area north of 708N; for CCLM the warming amounts to an average of almost 58C for 2002/03–2011/12.

Description: The evolutionary trajectory of early complex life on Earth is interpreted largely from the fossils of the Precambrian soft-bodied Ediacara Biota, which appeared and evolved during a time of dynamic biogeochemical and environmental fluctuation in the global ocean. The Ediacara Biota is historically divided into three successive Assemblages—the Avalon, the White Sea, and the Nama—which are marked by the appearance of novel biological traits and ecological strategies. In particular, the younger White Sea and Nama Assemblages record a “second wave” of ecological innovations, which included not only the development of uniquely Ediacaran body plans and ecologies, such as matground adaptations, but also the dual emergence of bilaterian-grade animals and Phanerozoic-style ecological innovations, including spatial heterogeneity, complex reproductive strategies, ecospace utilization, motility, and substrate competition. The late Ediacaran was an evolutionarily dynamic time characterized by strong environmental control over the distribution of taxa in time and space.

Description: The formation of secondary ice in clouds, i.e. ice particles that are created at temperatures above the limit for homogeneous freezing without the direct involvement of a heterogeneous ice nucleus is one of the longest standing puzzles in cloud physics. Here we present comprehensive laboratory investigations on the formation of small ice particles upon the freezing of drizzle-sized cloud droplets levitated in an electrodynamic balance. Four different categories of secondary ice formation (bubble bursting, jetting, cracking, breakup) could be detected and their respective frequencies of occurrence as a function of temperature and droplet size are given. We find that bubble bursting occurs more often than droplet splitting. While we do not observe the shattering of droplets into many large fragments, we find that the average number of small secondary ice particles released during freezing is strongly droplet-size dependent and may well exceed unity for droplets larger than 300 μm in diameter. This leaves droplet fragmentation an important secondary ice process effective at temperatures around -10 °C in clouds where large drizzle droplets are present.

Description: Well-known problems trouble coupled general circulation models of the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. Model climates are significantly more symmetric about the equator than is observed. Model sea surface temperatures are biased warm south and southeast of the equator, and the atmosphere is too rainy within a band south of the equator. Near-coastal eastern equatorial SSTs are too warm, producing a zonal SST gradient in the Atlantic opposite in sign to that observed. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Eastern Tropical Ocean Synthesis Working Group (WG) has pursued an updated assessment of coupled model SST biases, focusing on the surface energy balance components, on regional error sources from clouds, deep convection, winds, and ocean eddies; on the sensitivity to model resolution; and on remote impacts. Motivated by the assessment, the WG makes the following recommendations: 1) encourage identification of the specific parameterizations contributing to the biases in individual models, as these can be model dependent; 2) restrict multimodel intercomparisons to specific processes; 3) encourage development of high-resolution coupled models with a concurrent emphasis on parameterization development of finer-scale ocean and atmosphere features, including low clouds; 4) encourage further availability of all surface flux components from buoys, for longer continuous time periods, in persistently cloudy regions; and 5) focus on the eastern basin coastal oceanic upwelling regions, where further opportunities for observational–modeling synergism exist.

Description: The ratio of global mean surface air temperature change to cumulative CO2 emissions, referred to as transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), has been shown to be approximately constant on centennial time scales. The mechanisms behind this constancy are not well understood, but previous studies suggest that compensating effects of ocean heat and carbon fluxes, which are governed by the same ocean mixing processes, could be one cause for this approximate constancy. This hypothesis is investigated by forcing different versions of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, which differ in the ocean mixing parameterization, with an idealized scenario of 1% annually increasing atmospheric CO2 until quadrupling of the preindustrial CO2 concentration and constant concentration thereafter. The relationship between surface air warming and cumulative emissions remains close to linear, but the TCRE varies between model versions, spanning the range of 1.2°–2.1°C EgC−1 at the time of CO2 doubling. For all model versions, the TCRE is not constant over time while atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase. It is constant after atmospheric CO2 stabilizes at 1120 ppm, because of compensating changes in temperature sensitivity (temperature change per unit radiative forcing) and cumulative airborne fraction. The TCRE remains approximately constant over time even if temperature sensitivity, determined by ocean heat flux, and cumulative airborne fraction, determined by ocean carbon flux, are taken from different model versions with different ocean mixing settings. This can partially be explained with temperature sensitivity and cumulative airborne fraction following similar trajectories, which suggests ocean heat and carbon fluxes scale approximately linearly with changes in vertical mixing.

Description: The Weddell Sea polynya is a large opening in the open-ocean sea ice cover associated with intense deep convection in the ocean. A necessary condition to form and maintain a polynya is the presence of a strong subsurface heat reservoir. This study investigates the processes that control the stratification and hence the buildup of the subsurface heat reservoir in the Weddell Sea. To do so, a climate model run for 200 years under preindustrial forcing with two eddying resolutions in the ocean (0.25° CM2.5 and 0.10° CM2.6) is investigated. Over the course of the simulation, CM2.6 develops two polynyas in the Weddell Sea, while CM2.5 exhibits quasi-continuous deep convection but no polynyas, exemplifying that deep convection is not a sufficient condition for a polynya to occur. CM2.5 features a weaker subsurface heat reservoir than CM2.6 owing to weak stratification associated with episodes of gravitational instability and enhanced vertical mixing of heat, resulting in an erosion of the reservoir. In contrast, in CM2.6, the water column is more stably stratified, allowing the subsurface heat reservoir to build up. The enhanced stratification in CM2.6 arises from its refined horizontal grid spacing and resolution of topography, which allows, in particular, a better representation of the restratifying effect by transient mesoscale eddies and of the overflows of dense waters along the continental slope.

Description: Mixotrophs are important components of the bacterioplankton, phytoplankton, microzooplankton, and (sometimes) zooplankton in coastal and oceanic waters. Bacterivory among the phytoplankton may be important for alleviating inorganic nutrient stress and may increase primary production in oligotrophic waters. Mixotrophic phytoflagellates and dinoflagellates are often dominant components of the plankton during seasonal stratification. Many of the microzooplankton grazers, including ciliates and Rhizaria, are mixotrophic owing to their retention of functional algal organelles or maintenance of algal endosymbionts. Phototrophy among the microzooplankton may increase gross growth efficiency and carbon transfer through the microzooplankton to higher trophic levels. Characteristic assemblages of mixotrophs are associated with warm, temperate, and cold seas and with stratification, fronts, and upwelling zones. Modeling has indicated that mixotrophy has a profound impact on marine planktonic ecosystems and may enhance primary production, biomass transfer to higher trophic levels, and the functioning of the biological carbon pump.

Description: Seasonal variability in pathways of warm water masses toward the Kangerdlugssuaq Fjord-Glacier system (KF/KG), southeast Greenland, is investigated by backtracking Lagrangian particles seeded at the fjord mouth in a high-resolution regional ocean model simulation in the ice-free and the ice-covered seasons. The waters at KF are a mixture of Atlantic-origin water advected from the Irminger Basin (FF for Faxaflói), the deep waters from the Denmark Strait and the waters from the Arctic Ocean, both represented by the Kögur section (KO). Below 200m depth, the warm water is a mixture of FF and KO water masses, and is warmer in winter than in summer. We find that seasonal differences in pathways double the fraction of FF particles in winter, causing the seasonal warming and salinification. Seasonal temperature variations at the upstream sections (FF and KO) have a negligible impact on temperature variations near the fjord. Successful monitoring of heat flux to the fjord therefore needs to take place close to the fjord, and cannot be inferred from upstream conditions.

Description: Two new cyclic peroxides, 2 and 3, were isolated from a sample of the Norwegian sponge Plakortis simplex. Their structures including relative stereochemistry were elucidated by interpretation of MS and NMR data. Compound 3 exhibited moderate in vitro activity against six solid human tumor cell lines with IC50 values in the range 7−15 μg/mL.

Description: The oceanic bottom boundary layer extracts energy and momentum from the overlying flow, mediates the fate of near-bottom substances, and generates bedforms that retard the flow and affect benthic processes. The bottom boundary layer is forced by winds, waves, tides, and buoyancy and is influenced by surface waves, internal waves, and stratification by heat, salt, and suspended sediments. This review focuses on the coastal ocean. The main points are that (a) classical turbulence concepts and modern turbulence parameterizations provide accurate representations of the structure and turbulent fluxes under conditions in which the underlying assumptions hold, (b) modern sensors and analyses enable high-quality direct or near-direct measurements of the turbulent fluxes and dissipation rates, and (c) the remaining challenges include the interaction of waves and currents with the erodible seabed, the impact of layer-scale two- and three-dimensional instabilities, and the role of the bottom boundary layer in shelf-slope exchange.

Description: In Ammassalik, in southeast Greenland, downslope winds can reach hurricane intensity and represent a hazard for the local population and environment. They advect cold air down the ice sheet and over the Irminger Sea, where they drive large ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes over an important ocean convection region. Earlier studies have found them to be associated with a strong katabatic acceleration over the steep coastal slopes, flow convergence inside the valley of Ammassalik, and—in one instance—mountain wave breaking. Yet, for the general occurrence of strong downslope wind events, the importance of mesoscale processes is largely unknown. Here, two wind events—one weak and one strong—are simulated with the atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with different model and topography resolutions, ranging from 1.67 to 60 km. For both events, but especially for the strong one, it is found that lower resolutions underestimate the wind speed because they misrepresent the steepness of the topography and do not account for the underlying wave dynamics. If a 5-km model instead of a 60-km model resolution in Ammassalik is used, the flow associated with the strong wind event is faster by up to 20 m s−1. The effects extend far downstream over the Irminger Sea, resulting in a diverging spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the heat fluxes. Local differences in the heat fluxes amount to 20%, with potential implications for ocean convection.

Description: Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) activity becomes more important every year while the understanding of what factors impact them continues to be complicated. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the primary factors impacting the activities in both the Pacific and the Atlantic, but an extensive examination of the fluctuation in this system has yet to be studied in its entirety. This article analyzes the ENSO impacts on the Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the assessed warm and cold years to show the dominant centennial-scale variation impact. This study looks to plausibly link this variation to the Southern Ocean centennial variability, which is rarely mentioned in any factors affecting the Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This centennial variability could be used to enhance future work related to predicting tropical cyclones.

Description: Oxygen loss in the ocean, termed deoxygenation, is a major consequence of climate change and is exacerbated by other aspects of global change. An average global loss of 2% or more has been recorded in the open ocean over the past 50-100 years, but with greater oxygen declines in intermediate waters (100-600 m) of the North Pacific, the East Pacific, tropical waters, and the Southern Ocean. Although ocean warming contributions to oxygen declines through a reduction in oxygen solubility and stratification effects on ventilation are reasonably well understood, it has been a major challenge to identify drivers and modifying factors that explain different regional patterns, especially in the tropical oceans. Changes in respiration, circulation (including upwelling), nutrient inputs, and possibly methane release contribute to oxygen loss, often indirectly through stimulation of biological production and biological consumption. Microbes mediate many feedbacks in oxygen minimum zones that can either exacerbate or ameliorate deoxygenation via interacting nitrogen, sulfur, and carbon cycles. The paleo-record reflects drivers of and feedbacks to deoxygenation that have played out through the Phanerozoic on centennial, millennial, and hundred-million-year timescales. Natural oxygen variability has made it difficult to detect the emergence of a climate-forced signal of oxygen loss, but new modeling efforts now project emergence to occur in many areas in 15-25 years. Continued global deoxygenation is projected for the next 100 or more years under most emissions scenarios, but with regional heterogeneity. Notably, even small changes in oxygenation can have significant biological effects. New efforts to systematically observe oxygen changes throughout the open ocean are needed to help address gaps in understanding of ocean deoxygenation patterns and drivers.

Description: Downward wave coupling (DWC) is an important process that characterizes the dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere via planetary wave reflection. A recent modeling study indicated that natural forcing factors, including sea-surface temperature variability and quasi-biennial oscillation, influence DWC and the associated surface impact in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In light of this, we further investigate how DWC in the NH is affected by anthropogenic forcings, using a fully coupled chemistry-climate model CESM1 (WACCM). The results indicate that the occurrence of DWC is significantly suppressed in the future, starting later in the seasonal cycle, with more events concentrated in late winter (February-March). The future decrease in DWC events is associated with enhanced wave absorption in the stratosphere due to increased greenhouse gases. The enhanced wave absorption is manifest as more absorbing types of stratospheric sudden warmings, with more events concentrated in early winter. This early winter condition leads to a delay in the development of the upper stratospheric reflecting surface, resulting in a shift in the seasonal cycle of DWC towards late winter. The tropospheric responses to DWC events in the future exhibit different spatial patterns compared to those of the past. In the North Atlantic sector, DWC-induced circulation changes are characterized by a poleward shift and an eastward extension of the tropospheric jet, while in the North Pacific sector, the circulation changes are characterized by a weakening of the tropospheric jet. These responses are consistent with a change in the pattern of DWC-induced synoptic-scale eddy-mean flow interaction.

Description: Decadal variabilities in Indian Ocean subsurface ocean heat content (OHC; 50–300 m) since the 1950s are examined using ocean reanalyses. This study elaborates on how Pacific variability modulates the Indian Ocean on decadal time scales through both oceanic and atmospheric pathways. High correlations between OHC and thermocline depth variations across the entire Indian Ocean Basin suggest that OHC variability is primarily driven by thermocline fluctuations. The spatial pattern of the leading mode of decadal Indian Ocean OHC variability closely matches the regression pattern of OHC on the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), emphasizing the role of the Pacific Ocean in determining Indian Ocean OHC decadal variability. Further analyses identify different mechanisms by which the Pacific influences the eastern and western Indian Ocean. IPO-related anomalies from the Pacific propagate mainly through oceanic pathways in the Maritime Continent to impact the eastern Indian Ocean. By contrast, in the western Indian Ocean, the IPO induces wind-driven Ekman pumping in the central Indian Ocean via the atmospheric bridge, which in turn modifies conditions in the southwestern Indian Ocean via westward-propagating Rossby waves. To confirm this, a linear Rossby wave model is forced with wind stresses and eastern boundary conditions based on reanalyses. This linear model skillfully reproduces observed sea surface height anomalies and highlights both the oceanic connection in the eastern Indian Ocean and the role of wind-driven Ekman pumping in the west. These findings are also reproduced by OGCM hindcast experiments forced by interannual atmospheric boundary conditions applied only over the Pacific and Indian Oceans, respectively.

Description: The circulation of the northeastern Atlantic Ocean at intermediate depths is characterized by watermass transformation processes that involve Iceland–Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) from the northeast, Labrador Sea Water (LSW) from the west, and Mediterranean Water from the south. Field observations were carried out with 89 eddy-resolving floats (RAFOS and MARVOR types). The data coverage achieved is remarkably high and enables a comprehensive study of the eastern basins between Iceland and the Azores. The trajectories show typical pathways of the water masses involved and the role that the complex bottom topography plays in defining them. The ISOW paths tend to lean against the slopes of the Reykjanes Ridge and Rockall Plateau. Westward escapes through multiple gaps in the ridge are possible, superimposed on a sustained southward flow in the eastern basin along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. LSW pathways leading to the eastern basins are subject to high variability in flow direction and eddy activity. In addition to a selection of characteristic trajectories, maps of the horizontal distributions of Lagrangian eddy kinetic energy and integral time scales are presented. These reveal distinct areas of intensified mixing in the Iceland Basin, as well as the sharp contrast between the subpolar and subtropical dynamics. A self-contained eddy detection scheme is applied to obtain statistics on individual eddy properties and their abundance. It is suggested that much of the intensified mixing can be related to cyclonic activity, particularly in the subpolar region.

Description: The Vasco—Cirene field experiment, in January—February 2007, targeted the Seychelles—Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) region, with the main purpose of investigating Madden—Julian Oscillation (MJO)-related SST events. The Validation of the Aeroclipper System under Convective Occurrences (Vasco) experiment (Duvel et al. 2009) and Cirene cruise were designed to provide complementary views of air—sea interaction in the SCTR region. While meteorological balloons were deployed from the Seychelles as a part of Vasco, the Research Vessel (R/V) Suroît was cruising the SCTR region as a part of Cirene. more: The Vasco—Cirene program explores how strong air—sea interactions promoted by the shallow thermocline and high sea surface temperature in the Seychelles—Chagos thermocline ridge results in marked variability at synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual time scales. The Cirene oceanographic cruise collected oceanic, atmospheric, and air—sea flux observations in this region in January—February 2007. The contemporaneous Vasco field experiment complemented these measurements with balloon deployments from the Seychelles. Cirene also contributed to the development of the Indian Ocean observing system via deployment of a mooring and 12 Argo profilers. Unusual conditions prevailed in the Indian Ocean during January and February 2007, following the Indian Ocean dipole climate anomaly of late 2006. Cirene measurements show that the Seychelles—Chagos thermocline ridge had higher-than-usual heat content with subsurface anomalies up to 7°C. The ocean surface was warmer and fresher than average, and unusual eastward currents prevailed down to 800 m. These anomalous conditions had a major impact on tuna fishing in early 2007. Our dataset also sampled the genesis and maturation of Tropical Cyclone Dora, including high surface temperatures and a strong diurnal cycle before the cyclone, followed by a 1.5°C cooling over 10 days. Balloonborne instruments sampled the surface and boundary layer dynamics of Dora. We observed small-scale structures like dry-air layers in the atmosphere and diurnal warm layers in the near-surface ocean. The Cirene data will quantify the impact of these finescale features on the upper-ocean heat budget and atmospheric deep convection.

Description: Downward wave coupling occurs when an upward propagating planetary wave from the troposphere decelerates the flow in the upper stratosphere, and forms a downward reflecting surface that redirects waves back to the troposphere. To test this mechanism and potential factors influencing the downward wave coupling, three 145-year sensitivity simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM-WACCM), a state-of-the-art high-top chemistry-climate model, are analyzed. The results show that the QBO and SST variability significantly impact downward wave coupling. Without the QBO, the occurrence of downward wave coupling is significantly suppressed. In contrast, stronger and more persistent downward wave coupling occurs when SST variability is excluded. The above influence on the occurrence of downward wave coupling is mostly due to a direct influence of the QBO and SST variability on stratospheric planetary wave source and propagation. The strengths of the tropospheric circulation and surface responses to a given downward wave coupling event, however, behave differently. The surface anomaly is significantly weaker (stronger) in the experiment with fixed SSTs (without QBO), even though the statistical signal of downward coupling is strongest (weakest) in this experiment. This apparent mismatch is explained by the differences in the strength of the synoptic-scale eddy-mean flow feedback and the possible contribution of SST anomalies in the North Atlantic during DWC event. The weaker synoptic-scale eddy-mean flow feedback, and the absence of the positive NAO-related SST-tripole pattern in the fixed SST experiment are consistent with a weaker tropospheric response in this experiment. The results highlight the importance of synoptic-scale eddies in setting the tropospheric response to downward wave coupling.

Description: There is evidence that the strengthened stratospheric westerlies arising from the Antarctic ozone hole–induced cooling cause a polar mesospheric warming and a subsequent cooling in the lower thermosphere. While previous studies focus on the role of nonresolved (gravity) wave drag filtering, here the role of resolved (planetary) wave drag and radiative forcing on the Antarctic mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) is explored in detail. Using simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth System Model, version 1 (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) [CESM1(WACCM)], it is found that in late spring and early summer the anomalous polar mesospheric warming induced by easterly nonresolved wave drag is dampened by anomalous dynamical cooling induced by westerly resolved wave drag. This resolved wave drag is attributed to planetary-scale wave (k = 1–3) activity, which is generated in situ as a result of increased instability of the summer mesospheric easterly jet induced by the ozone hole. On the other hand, the anomalous cooling in the polar lower thermosphere induced by westerly nonresolved wave drag is enhanced by anomalous dynamical cooling due to westerly resolved wave drag. In addition, radiative effects from increased greenhouse gases during the ozone hole period contribute partially to the cooling in the polar lower thermosphere. The polar MLT temperature response to the Antarctic ozone hole is, through thermal wind balance, accompanied by the downward migration of anomalous zonal-mean wind from the lower thermosphere to the stratopause. The results highlight that a proper accounting of both dynamical and radiative effects is required in order to correctly attribute the causes of the polar MLT response to the Antarctic ozone hole.

Description: An empirical model for the temperature of subsurface water entrained into the ocean mixed layer (Te) is presented and evaluated to improve sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) simulations in an intermediate ocean model (IOM) of the tropical Pacific. An inverse modeling approach is adopted to estimate Te from an SSTA equation using observed SST and simulated upper-ocean currents. A relationship between Te and sea surface height (SSH) anomalies is then obtained by utilizing a singular value decomposition (SVD) of their covariance. This empirical scheme is able to better parameterize Te anomalies than other local schemes and quite realistically depicts interannual variability of Te, including a nonlocal phase lag relation of Te variations relative to SSH anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific. An improved Te parameterization naturally leads to better depiction of the subsurface effect on SST variability by the mean upwelling of subsurface temperature anomalies. As a result, SSTA simulations are significantly improved in the equatorial Pacific; a comparison with other schemes indicates that systematic errors of the simulated SSTAs are significantly small—apparently due to the optimized empirical Teparameterization. Cross validation and comparisons with other model simulations are made to illustrate the robustness and effectiveness of the scheme. In particular it is demonstrated that the empirical Te model constructed from one historical period can be successfully used to improve SSTA simulations in another.

Description: The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is closely related to Asian climate. Previous examination of changes in the WPSH found a westward extension since the late 1970s, which has contributed to the inter-decadal transition of East Asian climate. The reason for the westward extension is unknown, however. The present study suggests that this significant change of WPSH is partly due to the atmosphere's response to the observed Indian Ocean-western Pacific (IWP) warming. Coordinated by a European Union's Sixth Framework Programme, Understanding the Dynamics of the Coupled Climate System (DYNAMITE), five AGCMs were forced by identical idealized sea surface temperature patterns representative of the IWP warming and cooling. The results of these numerical experiments suggest that the negative heating in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and increased convective heating in the equatorial Indian Ocean/ Maritime Continent associated with IWP warming are in favor of the westward extension of WPSH. The SST changes in IWP influences the Walker circulation, with a subsequent reduction of convections in the tropical central and eastern Pacific, which then forces an ENSO/Gill-type response that modulates the WPSH. The monsoon diabatic heating mechanism proposed by Rodwell and Hoskins plays a secondary reinforcing role in the westward extension of WPSH. The low-level equatorial flank of WPSH is interpreted as a Kelvin response to monsoon condensational heating, while the intensified poleward flow along the western flank of WPSH is in accord with Sverdrup vorticity balance. The IWP warming has led to an expansion of the South Asian high in the upper troposphere, as seen in the reanalysis.

Description: Seasonal reconstructions of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) index are derived to extend the record before the reanalysis period, using station sea level pressure (SLP) data as predictors. Two reconstructions using different predictands are obtained: one [Jones and Widmann (JW)] based on the first principal component (PC) of extratropical SLP and the other (Fogt) on the index of Marshall. A regional-based SAM index (Visbeck) is also considered.These predictands agree well post-1979; correlations decline in all seasons except austral summer for the full series starting in 1958. Predictand agreement is strongest in spring and summer; hence agreement between the reconstructions is highest in these seasons. The less zonally symmetric SAM structure in winter and spring influences the strength of the SAM signal over land areas, hence the number of stations included in the reconstructions. Reconstructions from 1865 were, therefore, derived in summer and autumn and from 1905 in winter and spring. This paper examines the skill of each reconstruction by comparison with observations and reanalysis data. Some of the individual peaks in the reconstructions, such as the most recent in austral summer, represent a full hemispheric SAM pattern, while others are caused by regional SLP anomalies over the locations of the predictors. The JW and Fogt reconstructions are of similar quality in summer and autumn, while in winter and spring the Marshall index is better reconstructed by Fogt than the PC index is by JW. In spring and autumn the SAM shows considerable variability prior to recent decades.

Description: Climate models used to produce global warming scenarios exhibit widely diverging responses of the thermohaline circulation (THC). To investigate the mechanisms responsible for this variability, a regional Atlantic Ocean model driven with forcing diagnosed from two coupled greenhouse gas simulations has been employed. One of the coupled models (MPI) shows an almost constant THC, the other (GFDL) shows a declining THC in the twenty-first century. The THC evolution in the regional model corresponds rather closely to that of the respective coupled simulation, that is, it remains constant when driven with the forcing from the MPI model, and declines when driven with the GFDL forcing. These findings indicate that a detailed representation of ocean processes in the region covered by the Atlantic model may not be critical for the simulation of the overall THC changes in a global warming scenario, and specifically that the coupled model’s rather coarse representation of water mass formation processes in the subpolar North Atlantic is unlikely to be the primary cause for the large differences in the THC evolution. Sensitivity experiments have confirmed that a main parameter governing the THC response to global warming is the density of the intermediate waters in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas, which in turn influences the density of the North Atlantic Deep Water, whereas changes in the air–sea heat and freshwater fluxes over the subpolar North Atlantic are only of moderate importance, and mainly influence the interannual–decadal variability of THC. Finally, as a consequence of changing surface fluxes, the Labrador Sea convection ceases by about 2030 under both forcings (i.e., even in a situation where the overall THC is stable) indicating that the eventual breakdown of the convection is likely but need not coincide with substantial THC changes.

Description: Shortly after the advent of the first imaging passive microwave sensor on board a research satellite an anomalous climate feature was observed within the Weddell Sea. During the years 1974–1976, a 250 × 103 km2 area within the seasonal sea ice cover was virtually free of winter sea ice. This feature, the Weddell Polynya, was created as sea ice formation was inhibited by ocean convection that injected relatively warm deep water into the surface layer. Though smaller, less persistent polynyas associated with topographically induced upwelling at Maud Rise frequently form in the area, there has not been a reoccurrence of the Weddell Polynya since 1976. Archived observations of the surface layer salinity within the Weddell gyre suggest that the Weddell Polynya may have been induced by a prolonged period of negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM). During negative SAM the Weddell Sea experiences colder and drier atmospheric conditions, making for a saltier surface layer with reduced pycnocline stability. This condition enables Maud Rise upwelling to trigger sustained deep-reaching convection associated with the polynya. Since the late 1970s SAM has been close to neutral or in a positive state, resulting in warmer, wetter conditions over the Weddell Sea, forestalling repeat of the Weddell Polynya. A contributing factor to the Weddell Polynya initiation may have been a La Niña condition, which is associated with increased winter sea ice formation in the polynya area. If the surface layer is made sufficiently salty due to a prolonged negative SAM period, perhaps aided by La Niña, then Maud Rise upwelling meets with positive feedback, triggering convection, and a winter persistent Weddell Polynya.

Description: This study explores the influence of phytoplankton on the tropical Pacific heat budget. A hybrid coupled model for the tropical Pacific that is based on a primitive equation reduced-gravity multilayer ocean model, a dynamic ocean mixed layer, an atmospheric mixed layer, and a statistical atmosphere is used. The statistical atmosphere relates deviations of the sea surface temperature from its mean to wind stress anomalies and allows for the rectification of the annual cycle and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon through the positive Bjerknes feedback. Furthermore, a nine-component ecosystem model is coupled to the physical variables of the ocean. The simulated chlorophyll concentrations can feed back onto the ocean heat budget by their optical properties, which modify solar light absorption in the surface layers. It is shown that both the surface layer concentration as well as the vertical profile of chlorophyll have a significant effect on the simulated mean state, the tropical annual cycle, and ENSO. This study supports a previously suggested hypothesis (Timmermann and Jin) that predicts an influence of phytoplankton concentration of the tropical Pacific climate mean state and its variability. The bioclimate feedback diagnosed here works as follows: Maxima in the subsurface chlorophyll concentrations lead to an enhanced subsurface warming due to the absorption of photosynthetically available shortwave radiation. This warming triggers a deepening of the mixed layer in the eastern equatorial Pacific and eventually a reduction of the surface ocean currents (Murtugudde et al.). The weakened south-equatorial current generates an eastern Pacific surface warming, which is strongly enhanced by the Bjerknes feedback. Because of the deepening of the mixed layer, the strength of the simulated annual cycle is also diminished. This in turn leads to an increase in ENSO variability.

Description: The authors present the first quantitative comparison between new velocity datasets and high-resolution models in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre [1/10° Parallel Ocean Program model (POPNA10), Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), ° Atlantic model (ATL6), and Family of Linked Atlantic Ocean Model Experiments (FLAME)]. At the surface, the model velocities agree generally well with World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) drifter data. Two noticeable exceptions are the weakness of the East Greenland coastal current in models and the presence in the surface layers of a strong southwestward East Reykjanes Ridge Current. At depths, the most prominent feature of the circulation is the boundary current following the continental slope. In this narrow flow, it is found that gridded float datasets cannot be used for a quantitative comparison with models. The models have very different patterns of deep convection, and it is suggested that this could be related to the differences in their barotropic transport at Cape Farewell. Models show a large drift in watermass properties with a salinization of the Labrador Sea Water. The authors believe that the main cause is related to horizontal transports of salt because models with different forcing and vertical mixing share the same salinization problem. A remarkable feature of the model solutions is the large westward transport over Reykjanes Ridge [10 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) or more]

Description: Recent observations show dramatic changes of the Arctic atmosphere–ice–ocean system. Here the authors demonstrate, through the analysis of a vast collection of previously unsynthesized observational data, that over the twentieth century the central Arctic Ocean became increasingly saltier with a rate of freshwater loss of 239 ± 270 km3 decade−1. In contrast, long-term (1920–2003) freshwater content (FWC) trends over the Siberian shelf show a general freshening tendency with a rate of 29 ± 50 km3 decade−1. These FWC trends are modulated by strong multidecadal variability with sustained and widespread patterns. Associated with this variability, the FWC record shows two periods in the 1920s–30s and in recent decades when the central Arctic Ocean was saltier, and two periods in the earlier century and in the 1940s–70s when it was fresher. The current analysis of potential causes for the recent central Arctic Ocean salinification suggests that the FWC anomalies generated on Arctic shelves (including anomalies resulting from river discharge inputs) and those caused by net atmospheric precipitation were too small to trigger long-term FWC variations in the central Arctic Ocean; to the contrary, they tend to moderate the observed long-term central-basin FWC changes. Variability of the intermediate Atlantic Water did not have apparent impact on changes of the upper–Arctic Ocean water masses. The authors’ estimates suggest that ice production and sustained draining of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean in response to winds are the key contributors to the salinification of the upper Arctic Ocean over recent decades. Strength of the export of Arctic ice and water controls the supply of Arctic freshwater to subpolar basins while the intensity of the Arctic Ocean FWC anomalies is of less importance. Observational data demonstrate striking coherent long-term variations of the key Arctic climate parameters and strong coupling of long-term changes in the Arctic–North Atlantic climate system. Finally, since the high-latitude freshwater plays a crucial role in establishing and regulating global thermohaline circulation, the long-term variations of the freshwater content discussed here should be considered when assessing climate change and variability.

Description: We perform eddy-resolving and high-vertical-resolution numerical simulations of the circulation in an idealized equatorial Atlantic Ocean in order to explore the formation of the deep equatorial circulation (DEC) in this basin. Unlike in previous studies, the deep equatorial intraseasonal variability (DEIV) that is believed to be the source of the DEC is generated internally by instabilities of the upper ocean currents. Two main simulations are discussed: Solution 1, configured with a rectangular basin and with wind forcing that is zonally and temporally uniform; and Solution 2, with realistic coastlines and with an annual cycle of wind forcing varying zonally. Somewhat surprisingly, Solution 1 produces the more realistic DEC: The large-vertical-scale currents (Equatorial Intermediate Currents or EICs) are found over a large zonal portion of the basin, and the small-vertical-scale equatorial currents (Equatorial Deep Jets or EDJs) form low-frequency, quasi-resonant, baroclinic equatorial basin modes with phase propagating mostly downward, consistent with observations. We demonstrate that both types of currents arise from the rectification of DEIV, consistent with previous theories. We also find that the EDJs contribute to maintaining the EICs, suggesting that the nonlinear energy transfer is more complex than previously thought. In Solution 2, the DEC is unrealistically weak and less spatially coherent than in the first simulation probably because of its weaker DEIV. Using intermediate solutions, we find that the main reason for this weaker DEIV is the use of realistic coastlines in Solution 2. It remains to be determined, what needs to be modified or included to obtain a realistic DEC in the more realistic configuration.

Description: A yet unexplained drift of (some) oxygen optodes during storage/transport and thus significant deviations from factory/laboratory calibrations have been a major handicap for autonomous oxygen observations. Optode drift appears to be systematic and is predominantly a slope effect due to reduced oxygen sensitivity. A small contribution comes from a reduced luminophore lifetime, which causes a small positive offset. A reliable in situ reference is essential to correct such a drift. Traditionally, this called for a ship-based reference cast, which poses some challenges for opportunistic float deployments. This study presents an easily implemented alternative using near-surface/in-air measurements of an Aanderaa optode on a 10-cm stalk and compares it to the more traditional approaches (factory, laboratory, and in situ deployment calibration). In-air samples show a systematic bias depending on the water saturation, which is likely caused by occasional submersions of the standard-height stalk optode. Linear regression of measured in-air supersaturation against in-water supersaturation (using ancillary meteorological data to define the saturation level) robustly removes this bias and thus provides a precise (0.2%) and accurate (1%) in situ correction that is available throughout the entire instrument’s lifetime.

Description: Predictability on seasonal time scales over the North Atlantic–Europe region is assessed using a seasonal prediction system based on an initialized version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). For this region, two of the dominant predictors on seasonal time scales are El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. Multiple studies have shown a potential for improved North Atlantic predictability for either predictor. Their respective influences are however difficult to disentangle, since the stratosphere is itself impacted by ENSO. Both El Niño and SSW events correspond to a negative signature of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has a major influence on European weather. This study explores the impact on Europe by separating the stratospheric pathway of the El Niño teleconnection. In the seasonal prediction system, the evolution of El Niño events is well captured for lead times of up to 6 months, and stratospheric variability is reproduced with a realistic frequency of SSW events. The model reproduces the El Niño teleconnection through the stratosphere, involving a deepened Aleutian low connected to a warm anomaly in the northern winter stratosphere. The stratospheric anomaly signal then propagates downward into the troposphere through the winter season. Predictability of 500-hPa geopotential height over Europe at lead times of up to 4 months is shown to be increased only for El Niño events that exhibit SSW events, and it is shown that the characteristic negative NAO signal is only obtained for winters also containing major SSW events for both the model and the reanalysis data.

Description: Classical theory concerning theEliassen–Palmrelation is extended in this study to allowfor a unified treatment of midlatitude inertia–gravity waves (MIGWs), midlatitude Rossby waves (MRWs), and equatorial waves (EQWs). A conservation equation for what the authors call the impulse-bolus (IB) pseudomomentum is useful, because it is applicable to ageostrophic waves, and the associated three-dimensional flux is parallel to the direction of the group velocity of MRWs. The equation has previously been derived in an isentropic coordinate system or a shallow-water model. The authors make an explicit comparison of prognostic equations for the IB pseudomomentum vector and the classical energy-based (CE) pseudomomentum vector, assuming inviscid linear waves in a sufficiently weak mean flow, to provide a basis for the former quantity to be used in an Eulerian time-mean (EM) framework. The authors investigate what makes the three-dimensional fluxes in the IB and CE pseudomomentum equations look in different directions. It is found that the two fluxes are linked by a gauge transformation, previously unmentioned, associated with a divergence-form wave-induced pressure L. The quantity L vanishes for MIGWs and becomes nonzero for MRWs and EQWs, and it may be estimated using the virial theorem. Concerning the effect of waves on the mean flow, L represents an additional effect in the pressure gradient term of both (the three-dimensional versions of) the transformed EM momentum equations and the merged form of the EMmomentumequations, the latter of which is associated with the nonacceleration theorem.

Description: [in “State of the Climate in 2014” : Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 96, No. 7, July 2015]

Description: Atmospheric deposition contributes potentially significant amounts of the nutrients iron, nitrogen and phosphorus (via mineral dust and anthropogenic aerosols) to the oligotrophic tropical North Atlantic Ocean. Transport pathways, deposition processes and source strengths contributing to this atmospheric flux are all highly variable in space and time. Atmospheric sampling was conducted during 28 research cruises through the Eastern Tropical North Atlantic (ETNA) over a 12 year period and a substantial dataset of measured concentrations of nutrients and trace metals in aerosol and rainfall over the region was acquired. This database was used to quantify (on a spatial- and seasonal-basis) the atmospheric input of ammonium, nitrate, soluble phosphorus and soluble and total iron, aluminium and manganese to the ETNA. The magnitude of atmospheric input varies strongly across the region, with high rainfall rates associated with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone contributing to high wet deposition fluxes in the south, particularly for soluble species. Dry deposition fluxes of species associated with mineral dust exhibited strong seasonality, with highest fluxes associated with winter-time low-level transport of Saharan dust. Overall (wet plus dry) atmospheric inputs of soluble and total trace metals were used to estimate their soluble fractions. These also varied with season and were generally lower in the dry north than in the wet south. The ratio of ammonium plus nitrate to soluble iron in deposition to the ETNA was lower than the N:Fe requirement for algal growth in all cases, indicating the importance of the atmosphere as a source of excess iron.

Description: The transport of dissolved oxygen (O2) from the surface ocean into the interior is a critical process sustaining aerobic life in mesopelagic ecosystems, but its rates and sensitivity to climate variations are poorly understood. Using a circulation model constrained to historical variability by assimilation of observations, we show that the North Pacific thermocline effectively takes up O2 primarily by expanding the area through which O2-rich mixed layer water is detrained into the thermocline. The outcrop area during the critical winter season varies in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). When the central North Pacific Ocean is in a cold phase, the winter outcrop window for the Central Mode Water class (CMW; a neutral density range of γ = 25.6 - 26.6) expands southward allowing more O2-rich surface water to enter the ocean’s interior. An increase in volume flux of water to the CMW density class is partly compensated by a reduced supply to the shallower densities of Subtropical Mode Water (γ = 24.0 - 25.5). The thermocline has become better oxygenated since the 1980s due partly to strong O2 uptake. Positive O2 anomalies appear first near the outcrop and subsequently downstream in the subtropical gyre. In contrast to the O2 variations within the ventilated thermocline, observed O2 in Intermediate Water (density range of γ = 26.7 – 27.2) shows a declining trend over the past half-century, a trend not explained by the open ocean water mass formation rate.

Description: This study investigates the interaction of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the troposphere separately for the North Pacific and North Atlantic region. Three 145-year model simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth Sytem Model (CESM-WACCM) are analyzed where only natural and no anthropogenic forcings are considered. These long simulations allow us to obtain statistically reliable results from an exceptional large number of cases for each combination of the QBO (westerly and easterly) and ENSO phases (El Niño and La Niña). Two different analysis methods were applied to investigate where nonlinearity might play a role in QBO-ENSO interactions. The analyses reveal that the stratospheric equatorial QBO anomalies extend down to the troposphere over the North Pacific during Northern hemisphere winter only during La Niña and not during El Niño events. The Aleutian low is deepened during QBO westerly (QBOW) as compared to QBO easterly (QBOE) conditions, and the North Pacific subtropical jet is shifted northward during La Niña. In the North Atlantic, the interaction of QBOW with La Niña conditions (QBOE with El Niño) results in a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. For both regions, nonlinear interactions between the QBO and ENSO might play a role. The results provide potential to enhance the skill of tropospheric seasonal predictions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific region.

Description: We investigated the effect of hydrostatic pressure of up to 6000 dbar on Aanderaa and Sea-Bird oxygen optodes both in the laboratory and in the field. The overall pressure response is a reduction in the O2 reading by 3 – 4 % per 1000 dbar which is closely linear with pressure and increases with temperature. Closer inspection reveals two superimposed processes with opposite effect: an O2-independent pressure response on the luminophore which increases optode O2 readings and an O2-dependent change in luminescence quenching which decreases optode O2 readings. The latter process dominates and is mainly due to a shift in the equilibrium between sensing membrane and sea water under elevated pressures. If only the dominant O2-dependent process is considered, Aanderaa and Sea-Bird optodes differ in their pressure response. Compensation of the O2-independent process, however, yields a uniform O2 dependence for Aanderaa optodes with standard foil and fast-response foil as well as Sea-Bird optodes. A new scheme to calculate optode O2 from raw data is proposed to account for the two processes. The overall uncertainty of the optode pressure correction amounts to 0.3 % per 1000 dbar, mainly due to variability between sensors.

Description: The upper tropical Atlantic Ocean has markedly warmed since the 1960s. It has been shown that this warming was not due to local heat fluxes, and that the trade winds that drive the coastal and equatorial upwelling have intensified rather than weakened. Remote forcing might thus have played an important role. Here model experiments are used to investigate the contribution from an increased inflow of warm Indian Ocean water through Agulhas leakage. A high-resolution hindcast experiment with interannually varying forcing for the time period 1948 to 2007, in which Agulhas leakage increases by about 45% from the 1960s to the early 2000s, reproduces the observed warming trend. To tease out the role of Agulhas leakage, a sensitivity experiment designed to only increase Agulhas leakage is used. Compared to a control simulation it shows a pronounced warming in the upper tropical Atlantic Ocean. A Lagrangian trajectory analysis confirms that a significant portion of Agulhas leakage water reaches the upper 300m of the tropical Atlantic Ocean within two decades, and that the tropical Atlantic warming in the sensitivity experiment is mainly due to water of Agulhas origin. Therefore, it is suggested that the increased trade winds since the 1960s favor upwelling of warmer subsurface waters, which in parts originate from the Agulhas, leading to higher SSTs in the tropics

Description: Implantable endovascular devices such as bare metal, drug eluting, and bioresorbable stents have transformed interventional care by providing continuous structural and mechanical support to many peripheral, neural, and coronary arteries affected by blockage. Although effective in achieving immediate restoration of blood flow, the long-term re-endothelialization and inflammation induced by mechanical stents are difficult to diagnose or treat. Here we present nanomaterial designs and integration strategies for the bioresorbable electronic stent with drug-infused functionalized nanoparticles to enable flow sensing, temperature monitoring, data storage, wireless power/data transmission, inflammation suppression, localized drug delivery, and hyperthermia therapy. In vivo and ex vivo animal experiments as well as in vitro cell studies demonstrate the previously unrecognized potential for bioresorbable electronic implants coupled with bioinert therapeutic nanoparticles in the endovascular system.

Description: The shrinking-core model of the formation of gas hydrates from ice spheres with well-defined geometry gives experimental access to the gas permeation in bulk hydrates which is relevant to their use as energy storage materials, their exploitation from natural resources, as well as to their role in flow assurance. Here we report on a new approach to model CO2 clathration experiments in the temperature range from 230 to 272 K. We develop a comprehensive description of the gas permeation based on the diffusion along the network of polyhedral cages, some of them being empty. Following earlier molecular dynamics simulation results, the jump from a cage to one of its empty neighbors is assumed to proceed via a “hole-in-cage-wall” mechanism involving water vacancies in cage walls. The rate-limiting process in the investigated temperature range can be explained by the creation of water-vacancy-interstitial pairs. The gas diffusion leads to a time-dependent cage filling which decreases across the hydrate layer with the distance from the particle surface. The model allows a prediction of the time needed for a complete conversion of ice spheres into clathrate as well as the time needed for a full equilibration of the cage fillings. The findings essentially support our earlier results obtained in the framework of a purely phenomenological permeation model in terms of the overall transformation kinetics, yet it provides for the first time insight into the cage equilibration processes. The diffusion of CO2 molecules through bulk hydrate is found to be about three to four times faster in comparison with the CH4 case.

Description: Data from an array of six moorings deployed east of Abaco, Bahamas, along 26.5°N during March 2004–May 2005 are analyzed. These moorings formed the western boundary array of a transbasin observing system designed to continuously monitor the meridional overturning circulation and meridional heat flux in the subtropical North Atlantic, under the framework of the joint U.K.–U.S. Rapid Climate Change (RAPID)–Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) Program. Important features of the western boundary circulation include the southward-flowing deep western boundary current (DWBC) below 1000 m and the northward-flowing “Antilles” Current in the upper 1000 m. Transports in the western boundary layer are estimated from direct current meter observations and from dynamic height moorings that measure the spatially integrated geostrophic flow between moorings. The results of these methods are combined to estimate the time-varying transports in the upper and deep ocean over the width of the western boundary layer to a distance of 500 km offshore of the Bahamas escarpment. The net southward transport of the DWBC across this region, inclusive of northward deep recirculation, is −26.5 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), which is divided nearly equally between upper (−13.9 Sv) and lower (−12.6 Sv) North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). In the top 1000 m, 6.0 Sv flows northward in a thermocline-intensified jet near the western boundary. These transports are found to agree well with historical current meter data in the region collected between 1986 and 1997. Variability in both shallow and deep components of the circulation is large, with transports above 1000 m varying between −15 and +25 Sv and deep transports varying between −60 and +3 Sv. Much of this transport variability, associated with barotropic fluctuations, occurs on relatively short time scales of several days to a few weeks. Upon removal of the barotropic fluctuations, slower baroclinic transport variations are revealed, including a temporary stoppage of the lower NADW transport in the DWBC during November 2004.

Description: A generalization of the transformed Eulerian and temporal residual means is presented. The new formulation uses rotational fluxes of buoyancy, and the full hierarchy of statistical density moments, to reduce the cross-isopycnal eddy flux to the physically relevant component associated with the averaged water mass properties. The resulting eddy-induced diapycnal diffusivity vanishes for adiabatic, statistically steady flow, and is related to either the growth or decay of mesoscale density variance and/or the covariance between small-scale forcing (mixing) and density fluctuations, such as that associated with the irreversible removal of density variance by dissipation. The relationship between the new formulation and previous approaches is described and is illustrated using results from an eddying channel model. The formalism is quite general and applies to all kinds of averaging and to any tracer (not just density).

Description: Chlorofluorocarbon (component CFC-11) and hydrographic data from 1997, 1999, and 2001 are presented to track the large-scale spreading of the Upper Labrador Sea Water (ULSW) in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean. ULSW is CFC rich and comparatively low in salinity. It is located on top of the denser “classical” Labrador Sea Water (LSW), defined in the density range σΘ = 27.68–27.74 kg m−3. It follows spreading pathways similar to LSW and has entered the eastern North Atlantic. Despite data gaps, the CFC-11 inventories of ULSW in the subpolar North Atlantic (40°–65°N) could be estimated within 11%. The inventory increased from 6.0 ± 0.6 million moles in 1997 to 8.1 ± 0.6 million moles in 1999 and to 9.5 ± 0.6 million moles in 2001. CFC-11 inventory estimates were used to determine ULSW formation rates for different periods. For 1970–97, the mean formation rate resulted in 3.2–3.3 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). To obtain this estimate, 5.0 million moles of CFC-11 located in 1997 in the ULSW in the subtropical/tropical Atlantic were added to the inventory of the subpolar North Atlantic. An estimate of the mean combined ULSW/LSW formation rate for the same period gave 7.6–8.9 Sv. For the years 1998–99, the ULSW formation rate solely based on the subpolar North Atlantic CFC-11 inventories yielded 6.9–9.2 Sv. At this time, the lack of classical LSW formation was almost compensated for by the strongly pronounced ULSW formation. Indications are presented that the convection area needed in 1998–99 to form this amount of ULSW exceeded the available area in the Labrador Sea. The Irminger Sea might be considered as an additional region favoring ULSW formation. In 2000–01, ULSW formation weakened to 3.3–4.7 Sv. Time series of layer thickness based on historical data indicate that there exists considerable variability of ULSW and classical LSW formation on decadal scales.

Description: Extratropical cyclones and how they may change in a warmer climate have been investigated in detail with a high-resolution version of the ECHAM5 global climate model. A spectral resolution of T213 (63 km) is used for two 32-yr periods at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and integrated for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Extremes of pressure, vorticity, wind, and precipitation associated with the cyclones are investigated and compared with a lower-resolution simulation.Comparison with observations of extreme wind speeds indicates that the model reproduces realistic values. This study also investigates the ability of the model to simulate extratropical cyclones by computing composites of intense storms and contrasting them with the same composites from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Composites of the time evolution of intense cyclones are reproduced with great fidelity; in particular the evolution of central surface pressure is almost exactly replicated, but vorticity, maximum wind speed, and precipitation are higher in the model. Spatial composites also show that the distributions of pressure, winds, and precipitation at different stages of the cyclone life cycle compare well with those from ERA-40, as does the vertical structure. For the twenty-first century, changes in the distribution of storms are very similar to those of previous study. There is a small reduction in the number of cyclones but no significant changes in the extremes of wind and vorticity in both hemispheres. There are larger regional changes in agreement with previous studies. The largest changes are in the total precipitation, where a significant increase is seen. Cumulative precipitation along the tracks of the cyclones increases by some 11% per track, or about twice the increase in global precipitation, while the extreme precipitation is close to the globally averaged increase in column water vapor (some 27%). Regionally, changes in extreme precipitation are even higher because of changes in the storm tracks.

Description: Using the same approach as in Part I, here it is shown how sampling problems in voluntary observing ship (VOS) data affect conclusions about interannual variations and secular changes of surface heat fluxes. The largest uncertainties in linear trend estimates are found in relatively poorly sampled regions like the high-latitude North Atlantic and North Pacific as well as the Southern Ocean, where trends can locally show opposite signs when computed from the regularly sampled and undersampled data. Spatial patterns of shorter-period interannual variability, quantified through the EOF analysis, also show remarkable differences between the regularly sampled and undersampled flux datasets in the Labrador Sea and northwest Pacific. In particular, it is shown that in the Labrador Sea region, in contrast to regularly sampled NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fluxes, VOS-like sampled NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fluxes neither show significant interannual variability nor significant trends. These regions, although quite localized covering small parts of the globe, play a crucial role for the coupled atmosphere–ocean system. In the Labrador Sea, for instance, interannual and decadal-scale changes of the surface net heat fluxes are known to affect oceanic convection and, thus, the meridional overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean. From a discussion of current atmospheric data assimilation systems it is argued that in poorly sampled regions reanalysis products are superior to VOS-based products for studying interannual and interdecadal variations of atmosphere–ocean interaction. In well-sampled regions, on the other hand, conclusions about surface heat flux variations are relatively insensitive to the choice of the flux products used (VOS versus reanalysis data). The results are confirmed for two different datasets, that is, ECMWF 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data and seasonal integrations with a recent version of the ECMWF model in which no actual data were assimilated.

Description: Perfect model ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere-ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar initial states and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that; variations in the ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the N. Atlantic are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels which are less than those seen for MOC variations. This inter-comparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a pre-requisite for the development of any operational forecasting system

Description: The dependence of the air–sea interactions over the North Atlantic on the ocean dynamics is explored by analyzing multicentury integrations with two different coupled ocean–atmosphere models. One is a coupled general circulation model (CGCM), in which both the atmospheric and the oceanic components are represented by general circulation models (GCMs). The second coupled model employs the same atmospheric GCM, but the oceanic GCM is replaced by a fixed-depth mixed layer model, so that variations of the ocean dynamics are excluded. The coupled model including active ocean dynamics simulates strong multidecadal variability in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Atlantic, with a monopolar spatial structure. In contrast, the coupled model that employs an oceanic mixed layer model and thus does not carry active ocean dynamics simulates a tripolar SST anomaly pattern at decadal time scales. The tripolar SST anomaly pattern is characterized by strong horizontal gradients and is by definition the result of the action of surface heat flux anomalies on the oceanic mixed layer. The differences in the spatial structures of the dominant decadal SST anomaly patterns yield rather different atmospheric responses. While the response to the monopolar SST anomaly pattern is shallow and thermal, the response to the tripolar SST anomaly pattern involves changes in the transient eddy statistics. The latter can be explained by the strong horizontal SST gradients that affect the surface baroclinicity, which in turn affects the growth rate of the transient eddies. The differences in the atmospheric response characteristics yield completely different response patterns. In the coupled run with active ocean dynamics, the sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies exhibit a rather homogeneous pattern that resembles somewhat the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), while a dipolar (North Atlantic Oscillation) NAO-like SLP anomaly pattern is simulated in the coupled run without active ocean dynamics.

Description: A tangent linear adjoint for a low-resolution dynamical model of the atmosphere is used to derive the optimal forcing perturbations for all state variables such that after a specified lead time the model response has a given projection, in terms of an energy norm, on the pattern associated with the 51-yr trend in the Northern Hemisphere winter tropospheric circulation, 1948/49–1998/99. A feature of the derived forcing sensitivity is a Rossby wave–like feature that emanates from the western tropical Pacific and is associated with the deepening of the Aleutian low, whereas an annular pattern in the forcing sensitivity in the uppermost model level is shown to be associated with the pattern of the trend over the Euro-Atlantic/Asian sectors, including the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index. The authors argue that the Rossby wave–type feature is consistent with studies that have argued a role for the upward trend in tropical sea surface temperature during the 51-yr period. On the other hand, the authors interpret the annular pattern in the forcing sensitivity as being consistent with studies that have argued that the trend over the Euro-Atlantic sector was associated with influences from the stratosphere. In particular, a nonlinear model driven by the optimal forcing perturbation applied only to the top model level is successful at reproducing the trend pattern with the correct amplitude in the Euro-Atlantic sector, but implies a trend over the North Pacific toward a weaker Aleutian low, contrary to what was observed but similar to the spatial pattern associated with the northern annular mode. These results show that the adjoint approach can shed light on previous apparently different interpretations of the trend. The study also presents a successful application of a tangent linear adjoint model to a climate problem.

Description: On 19 October 2000, Hurricane Michael merged with an approaching baroclinic trough over the western North Atlantic Ocean south of Nova Scotia. As the hurricane moved over cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs; less than 25°C), it intensified to category-2 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale [maximum sustained wind speeds of 44 m s−1 (85 kt)] while tapping energy from the baroclinic environment. The large “hybrid” storm made landfall on the south coast of Newfoundland with maximum sustained winds of 39 m s−1 (75 kt) causing moderate damage to coastal communities east of landfall. Hurricane Michael presented significant challenges to weather forecasters. The fundamental issue was determining which of two cyclones (a newly formed baroclinic low south of Nova Scotia or the hurricane) would become the dominant circulation center during the early stages of the extratropical transition (ET) process. Second, it was difficult to predict the intensity of the storm at landfall owing to competing factors: 1) decreasing SSTs conducive to weakening and 2) the approaching negatively tilted upper-level trough, favoring intensification. Numerical hindcast simulations using the limited-area Mesoscale Compressible Community model with synthetic vortex insertion (cyclone bogus) prior to the ET of Hurricane Michael led to a more realistic evolution of wind and pressure compared to running the model without vortex insertion. Specifically, the mesoscale model correctly simulates the hurricane as the dominant circulation center early in the transition process, versus the baroclinic low to its north, which was the favored development in the runs not employing vortex insertion. A suite of experiments is conducted to establish the sensitivity of the ET to various initial conditions, lateral driving fields, domain sizes, and model parameters. The resulting storm tracks and intensities fall within the range of the operational guidance, lending support to the possibility of improving numerical forecasts using synthetic vortex insertion prior to ET in such a model.

Description: Recent observations show dramatic changes of the Arctic atmosphere–ice–ocean system. Here the authors demonstrate, through the analysis of a vast collection of previously unsynthesized observational data, that over the twentieth century the central Arctic Ocean became increasingly saltier with a rate of freshwater loss of 239 ± 270 km3 decade−1. In contrast, long-term (1920–2003) freshwater content (FWC) trends over the Siberian shelf show a general freshening tendency with a rate of 29 ± 50 km3 decade−1. These FWC trends are modulated by strong multidecadal variability with sustained and widespread patterns. Associated with this variability, the FWC record shows two periods in the 1920s–30s and in recent decades when the central Arctic Ocean was saltier, and two periods in the earlier century and in the 1940s–70s when it was fresher. The current analysis of potential causes for the recent central Arctic Ocean salinification suggests that the FWC anomalies generated on Arctic shelves (including anomalies resulting from river discharge inputs) and those caused by net atmospheric precipitation were too small to trigger long-term FWC variations in the central Arctic Ocean; to the contrary, they tend to moderate the observed long-term central-basin FWC changes. Variability of the intermediate Atlantic Water did not have apparent impact on changes of the upper–Arctic Ocean water masses. The authors’ estimates suggest that ice production and sustained draining of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean in response to winds are the key contributors to the salinification of the upper Arctic Ocean over recent decades. Strength of the export of Arctic ice and water controls the supply of Arctic freshwater to subpolar basins while the intensity of the Arctic Ocean FWC anomalies is of less importance. Observational data demonstrate striking coherent long-term variations of the key Arctic climate parameters and strong coupling of long-term changes in the Arctic–North Atlantic climate system. Finally, since the high-latitude freshwater plays a crucial role in establishing and regulating global thermohaline circulation, the long-term variations of the freshwater content discussed here should be considered when assessing climate change and variability.

Description: The interaction of clouds with solar and terrestrial radiation is one of the most important topics of climate research. In recent years it has been recognized that only a full three-dimensional (3D) treatment of this interaction can provide answers to many climate and remote sensing problems, leading to the worldwide development of numerous 3D radiative transfer (RT) codes. The international Intercomparison of 3D Radiation Codes (I3RC), described in this paper, sprung from the natural need to compare the performance of these 3D RT codes used in a variety of current scientific work in the atmospheric sciences. I3RC supports intercomparison and development of both exact and approximate 3D methods in its effort to 1) understand and document the errors/limits of 3D algorithms and their sources; 2) provide “baseline” cases for future code development for 3D radiation; 3) promote sharing and production of 3D radiative tools; 4) derive guidelines for 3D radiative tool selection; and 5) improve atmospheric science education in 3D RT. Results from the two completed phases of I3RC have been presented in two workshops and are expected to guide improvements in both remote sensing and radiative energy budget calculations in cloudy atmospheres.

Description: This review paper discusses the physical basis and the potential for decadal climate predictability over the Atlantic and its adjacent land areas. Many observational and modeling studies describe pronounced decadal and multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean. However, it still needs to be quantified to which extent the variations in the ocean drive variations in the atmosphere and over land. In particular, although a clear impact of the Tropics on the midlatitudes has been demonstrated, it is unclear if and how the extratropical atmosphere responds to midlatitudinal sea surface temperature anomalies. Although the mechanisms behind the decadal to multidecadal variability in the Atlantic sector are still controversial, there is some consensus that some of the longer-term multidecadal variability is driven by variations in the thermohaline circulation. The variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation appear to be predictable one to two decades ahead, as shown by a number of perfect model predictability experiments. The next few decades will be dominated by these multidecadal variations, although the effects of anthropogenic climate change are likely to introduce trends. Some impact of the variations of the thermohaline circulation on the atmosphere has been demonstrated in some studies so that useful decadal predictions with economic benefit may be possible.

Description: Changes of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) excite wave patterns that readjust the thermocline globally. This paper examines the impact of a freshwater-induced THC shutdown on the depth of the Pacific thermocline and its subsequent modification of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability using an intermediate-complexity global coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model and an intermediate ENSO model, respectively. It is shown by performing a numerical eigenanalysis and transient simulations that a THC shutdown in the North Atlantic goes along with reduced ENSO variability because of a deepening of the zonal mean tropical Pacific thermocline. A transient simulation also exhibits abrupt changes of ENSO behavior, depending on the rate of THC change. The global oceanic wave adjustment mechanism is shown to play a key role also on multidecadal time scales. Simulated multidecadal global sea surface temperature (SST) patterns show a large degree of similarity with previous climate reconstructions, suggesting that the observed pan-oceanic variability on these time scales is brought about by oceanic waves and by atmospheric teleconnections.

Description: A new, non-flux-corrected, global climate model is introduced, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), which will be used to study internal climate variability from interannual to millennial time scales and climate predictability of the first and second kind. The version described here is a coarse-resolution version that will be employed in extended-range integrations of several millennia. KCM's performance in the tropical Pacific with respect to mean state, annual cycle, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is described. Additionally, the tropical Pacific response to global warming is studied.Overall, climate drift in a multicentury control integration is small. However, KCM exhibits an equatorial cold bias at the surface of the order 1 degrees C, while strong warm biases of several degrees are simulated in the eastern tropical Pacific on both sides off the equator, with maxima near the coasts. The annual and semiannual cycles are realistically simulated in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific, respectively. ENSO performance compares favorably to observations with respect to both amplitude and period. An ensemble of eight greenhouse warming simulations was performed, in which the CO2 concentration was increased by 1% yr(-1) until doubling was reached, and stabilized thereafter. Warming of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) is, to first order, zonally symmetric and leads to a sharpening of the thermocline. ENSO variability increases because of global warming: during the 30-yr period after CO2 doubling, the ensemble mean standard deviation of Nino-3 SST anomalies is increased by 26% relative to the control, and power in the ENSO band is almost doubled. The increased variability is due to both a strengthened (22%) thermocline feedback and an enhanced (52%) atmospheric sensitivity to SST; both are associated with changes in the basic state. Although variability increases in the mean, there is a large spread among ensemble members and hence a finite probability that in the "model world" no change in ENSO would be observed.

Description: In this paper, a version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model is used to (i) diagnose the diabatic heating associated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and (ii) assess the role of this heating in the dynamics of the NAO in the model. Over the North Atlantic sector, the NAO-related diabatic heating is dominated above the planetary boundary layer by the latent heat release associated with precipitation, and within the boundary layer by vertical diffusion associated with sensible heat flux from the ocean. An association between La Niña–El Niño–type conditions in the tropical Pacific and the positive/negative NAO is found in model runs using initial conditions and sea surface temperature (SST) lower boundary conditions from the period 1982–2001, but not in a companion set of model runs for the period 1962–81. Model experiments are then described in which the NAO-related diabatic heating diagnosed from the 1982–2001 control run is applied as a constant forcing in the model temperature equation using both 1982–2001 and 1962–81 model setups. To assess the local feedback from the diabatic heating, the specified forcing is first restricted to the North Atlantic sector alone. In this case, the model response (in an ensemble mean sense) is suggestive of a weak negative feedback, but exhibits more baroclinic structure and has its centers of action shifted compared to those of the NAO. On the other hand, forcing with only the tropical Pacific part of the diabatic heating leads to a robust model response in both the 1982–2001 and 1962–81 model setups. The model response projects on to the NAO with the same sign as that used to diagnose the forcing, arguing that the link between the tropical Pacific and the NAO is real in the 1982–2001 control run. The missing link in the corresponding run for 1962–81 is a result of a change in the tropical forcing between the two periods, and not the extratropical flow regime.

Description: The depth of winter convection in the central Labrador Sea is strongly influenced by the prevailing stratification in late summer. For this late summer stratification salinity is as important as temperature, and in the upper water layers salinity even dominates. To analyze the source of the spring and summer freshening in the central region, seasonal freshwater cycles have been constructed for the interior Labrador Sea, the West Greenland Current, and the Labrador Current. It is shown that none of the local freshwater sources is responsible for the spring–summer freshening in the interior, which appears to occur in two separate events in April to May and July to September. Comparing the timing and volume estimates of the seasonal freshwater cycles of the boundary currents with the central Labrador Sea helps in understanding the origin of the interior freshwater signals. The first smaller pulse cannot be attributed clearly to either of the boundary currents. The second one is about three times stronger and supplies 60% of the seasonal summer freshwater. Transport estimates and calculated mixing properties provide evidence that its source is the West Greenland Current. The finding implies a connection also on interannual time scales between Labrador Sea surface salinity and freshwater sources in the West Greenland Current and farther upstream in the East Greenland Current. The freshwater input from the West Greenland Current thus also is the likely pathway for the known modulation of Labrador Sea Water mass formation by freshwater export from the Arctic (via the East Greenland Current), which implies some predictability on longer time scales.

Description: Multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) of surface zonal wind, sea surface temperature (SST), 20° isotherm depth, and surface zonal current observations (between 1990 and 2004) identifies three coupled ocean–atmosphere modes of variability in the tropical Pacific: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the annual cycle, and a mode with a 14–18-month period, which is referred to as sub-ENSO in this study. The sub-ENSO mode accounts for the near 18-month (near annual) variability prior to (following) the 1997/98 El Niño event. It was strongest during this El Niño event, with SST anomalies exceeding 1°C. Sub-ENSO peak SST anomalies are ENSO-like in structure and are associated with eastward propagating heat content variations. However, the SST anomalies are preceded by and in near quadrature with relatively strong remotely forced westward propagating zonal current variations, suggesting the sub-ENSO mode arises from the zonal-advective feedback. The sub-ENSO mode is found to exist also in an intermediate complexity model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A heat budget analysis of the model’s sub-ENSO mode shows it indeed arises from the zonal-advective feedback. In the model, both ENSO and sub-ENSO modes coexist, but there is a weak nonlinear interaction between them. Experiments also show that the observed changes in sub-ENSO’s characteristics may be explained by changes in the relative importance of zonal and vertical advection SST tendencies.

Description: The interannual heat content variability in the tropical south Indian Ocean (SIO) and its relationship with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied. The baroclinic ocean response to stochastic wind stress predicted by a simple analytical model is compared with two integrations of the ECHO-G coupled general circulation model. In one integration, ocean–atmosphere interactions are suppressed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, so that this integration does not simulate ENSO. In the other integration, interactions are allowed everywhere and ENSO is simulated. The results show that basinwide variability in the SIO heat content can be produced by two mechanisms: 1) oscillatory forcing by ENSO-related wind stress and 2) temporally stochastic and spatially coherent wind stress forcing. Previous studies have shown that transmission of energy from the tropical Pacific to the southern Indian Ocean occurs through coastal Kelvin waves along the western coast of Australia. The results in this paper confirm the occurrence of such transmission. In the ECHO-G simulations, this transmission occurs both at the annual time scale and at interannual time scales. Generation of offshore Rossby waves by these coastal Kelvin waves at interannual time scales—and, in particular, at the ENSO time scale—was found.

Description: The temporal evolution of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the subtropical North Atlantic is affected by both remotely forced, basin-scale meridionally coherent, climate-relevant transport anomalies, such as changes in high-latitude deep water formation rates, and locally forced transport anomalies, such as eddies or Rossby waves, possibly associated with small meridional coherence scales, which can be considered as noise. The focus of this paper is on the extent to which local eddies and Rossby waves when impinging on the western boundary of the Atlantic affect the temporal variability of the AMOC at 26.5 degrees N. Continuous estimates of the AMOC at this latitude have been made since April 2004 by combining the Florida Current, Ekman, and midocean transports with the latter obtained from continuous density measurements between the coasts of the Bahamas and Morocco, representing, respectively, the western and eastern boundaries of the Atlantic at this latitude.Within 100 km of the western boundary there is a threefold decrease in sea surface height variability toward the boundary, observed in both dynamic heights from in situ density measurements and altimetric heights. As a consequence, the basinwide zonally integrated upper midocean transport shallower than 1000 m-as observed continuously between April 2004 and October 2006-varies by only 3.0 Sv (1 Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) RMS. Instead, upper midocean transports integrated from western boundary stations 16, 40, and 500 km offshore to the eastern boundary vary by 3.6, 6.0, and 10.7 Sv RMS, respectively. The reduction in eddy energy toward the western boundary is reproduced in a nonlinear reduced-gravity model suggesting that boundary-trapped waves may account for the observed decline in variability in the coastal zone because they provide a mechanism for the fast equatorward export of transport anomalies associated with eddies impinging on the western boundary. An analytical model of linear Rossby waves suggests a simple scaling for the reduction in thermocline thickness variability toward the boundary. Physically, the reduction in amplitude is understood as along-boundary pressure gradients accelerating the fluid and rapidly propagating pressure anomalies along the boundary. The results suggest that the local eddy field does not dominate upper midocean transport or AMOC variability at 26.5 degrees N on interannual to decadal time scales.

Description: A coupled global atmosphere–ocean model of intermediate complexity is used to study the influence of glacial boundary conditions on the atmospheric circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum in a systematical manner. A web of atmospheric interactions is disentangled, which involves changes in the meridional temperature gradient and an associated modulation of the atmospheric baroclinicity. This in turn drives anomalous transient eddy momentum fluxes that feed back onto the zonal mean circulation. Moreover, the modified transient activity (weakened in the North Pacific and strengthened in the North Atlantic) leads to a meridional reorganization of the atmospheric heat transport, thereby feeding back onto the meridional temperature structure. Furthermore, positive barotropic conversion and baroclinic production rates over the Laurentide ice sheets and the far eastern North Pacific have the tendency to decelerate the westerlies, thereby feeding back to the stationary wave changes triggered by orographic forcing.

Description: Two state-of-the-art profiling floats were equipped with novel optode-based oceanographic oxygen sensors. Both floats were simultaneously deployed in the central Labrador Sea gyre on 7 September 2003. They drift at a depth of 800 db and perform weekly profiles of temperature, salinity, and oxygen in the upper 2000 m of the water column. The initial results from the first 6 months of operation are presented. Data are compared with a small hydrographic oxygen survey of the deployment site. They are further examined for measurement quality, including precision, accuracy, and drift aspects. The first 28 profiles obtained are of high quality and show no detectable sensor drift. A method of long-term drift control is described and a few suggestions for the operation protocol are provided.

Description: A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the participation is now 17 groups from 12 countries with 24 models. This effort, as well as the subsequent analysis phase, was organized by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM) Climate Simulation Panel, and constitutes the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The dataset is called the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and represents the largest and most comprehensive international global coupled climate model experiment and multimodel analysis effort ever attempted. As of March 2007, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has collected, archived, and served roughly 32 TB of model data. With oversight from the panel, the multimodel data were made openly available from PCMDI for analysis and academic applications. Over 171 TB of data had been downloaded among the more than 1000 registered users to date. Over 200 journal articles, based in part on the dataset, have been published so far. Though initially aimed at the IPCC AR4, this unique and valuable resource will continue to be maintained for at least the next several years. Never before has such an extensive set of climate model simulations been made available to the international climate science community for study. The ready access to the multimodel dataset opens up these types of model analyses to researchers, including students, who previously could not obtain state-of-the-art climate model output, and thus represents a new era in climate change research. As a direct consequence, these ongoing studies are increasing the body of knowledge regarding our understanding of how the climate system currently works, and how it may change in the future.

Description: The dominant pattern of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since the 1970s the NAO has been well characterized by a trend toward its positive phase. Recent atmospheric general circulation model studies have linked this trend to a progressive warming of the Indian Ocean. Unfortunately, a clear mechanism responsible for the change of the NAO could not be given. This study provides further details of the NAO response to Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This is done by conducting experiments with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM). The authors develop a hypothesis of how the Indian Ocean impacts the NAO.

Description: The multidecadal climate variability in the North Pacific region is investigated by using a 2000-yr-long integration with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. It is shown that the multidecadal variability evolves largely independent of the variations in the tropical Pacific, so that this kind of multidecadal variability may be regarded as internal to the North Pacific. The coupled model results suggest that the multidecadal variability can be explained by the dynamical ocean response to stochastic wind stress forcing. Superimposed on the red background variability, a multidecadal mode with a period of about 40 yr is simulated by the coupled model. This mode can be understood through the concept of spatial resonance between the ocean and the atmosphere.

Description: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) involves study and intercomparison of multimodel simulations of present and future climate. The simulations of the future use idealized forcing in which CO, increase is compounded 1% yr(-1) until it doubles (near year 70) with global coupled models that contain, typically, components representing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface. Results from CMIP diagnostic sub-projects were presented at the Second CMIP Workshop held at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, in September 2003. Significant progress in diagnosing and understanding results from global coupled models has been made since the time of the First CMIP Workshop in Melbourne, Australia, in 1998. For example, the issue of flux adjustment is slowly fading as more and more models obtain stable multicentury surface climates without them. El Nino variability, usually about half the observed amplitude in the previous generation of coupled models, is now more accurately simulated in the present generation of global coupled models, though there are still biases in simulating the patterns of maximum variability. Typical resolutions of atmospheric component models contained in coupled models are now usually around 2.5degrees latitude-longitude, with the ocean components often having about twice the atmospheric model resolution, with even higher resolution in the equatorial Tropics. Some new-generation coupled models have atmospheric resolutions of around 1.5degrees latitude - longitude. Modeling groups now routinely run the CMIP control and 1% CO2 simulations in addition to twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate simulations with a variety of forcings e.g., volcanoes, solar variability, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, ozone, and greenhouse gases, with the anthropogenic forcings for future climate as well. However, persistent systematic errors noted in previous generations of global coupled models are still present in the current generation (e.g., overextensive equatorial Pacific cold tongue, double ITCZ). This points to the next challenge for the global coupled climate modeling community. Planning and commencement of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) has prompted rapid coupled model development, which is leading to an expanded CMIP-like activity to collect and analyze results for the control, 1% CO2, and twentieth-, twenty-first, and twenty-second-century simulations performed for the AR4. The international climate community is encouraged to become involved in this analysis effort.

Description: The solar radiative properties of cirrus clouds depend on ice particle shape, size, and orientation, as well as on the spatial cloud structure. Radiation schemes in atmospheric circulation models rely on estimates of cloud optical thickness only. In the present work, a Monte Carlo radiative transfer code is applied to various cirrus cloud scenarios to obtain the radiative response of uncertainties in the above-mentioned microphysical and spatial cloud properties (except orientation). First, plane-parallel homogeneous (0D) clouds with different crystal shapes (hexagonal columns, irregular polycrystals) and 114 different size distributions have been considered. The resulting variabilities in the solar radiative fluxes are in the order of a few percent for the reflected and about 1% for the diffusely transmitted fluxes. Largest variabilities in the order of 10% to 30% are found for the solar broadband absorptance. However, these variabilities are smaller than the flux differences caused by the choice of ice particle geometries. The influence of cloud inhomogeneities on the radiative fluxes has been examined with the help of time series of Raman lidar extinction coefficient profiles as input for the radiative transfer calculations. Significant differences between results for inhomogeneous and plane-parallel clouds were found. These differences are in the same order of magnitude as those arising from using extremely different crystal shapes for the radiative transfer calculations. From this sensitivity study, the ranking of cirrus cloud properties according to their importance in solar broadband radiative transfer is optical thickness, ice crystal shape, ice particle size, and spatial structure.

Description: The Labrador Sea is one of the few regions of the World Ocean where deep convection takes place. Several moorings across the Labrador continental slope just north of Hamilton Bank show that convection does take place within the Labrador Current. Mixing above the lower Labrador slope is facilitated by the onshore along-isopycnal intrusions of low-potential-vorticity eddies that weaken the stratification, combined with baroclinic instability that sustains slanted mixing while restratifying the water column through horizontal fluxes. Above the shelf break, the Irminger seawater core is displaced onshore while the stratification weakens with the increase in isopycnal slope. The change in stratification is partially due to the onshore shift of the “classical” Labrador Current, baroclinic instability, and possibly slantwise convection.

Description: Sampling uncertainties in the voluntary observing ship (VOS)-based global ocean–atmosphere flux fields were estimated using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and ECMWF 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) as well as seasonal forecasts without data assimilation. Air–sea fluxes were computed from 6-hourly reanalyzed individual variables using state-of-the-art bulk formulas. Individual variables and computed fluxes were subsampled to simulate VOS-like sampling density. Random simulation of the number of VOS observations and simulation of the number of observations with contemporaneous sampling allowed for estimation of random and total sampling uncertainties respectively. Although reanalyses are dependent on VOS, constituting an important part of data assimilation input, it is assumed that the reanalysis fields adequately reproduce synoptic variability at the sea surface. Sampling errors were quantified by comparison of the regularly sampled (i.e., 6 hourly) and subsampled monthly fields of surface variables and fluxes. In poorly sampled regions random sampling errors amount to 2.5°–3°C for air temperature, 3 m s−1 for the wind speed, 2–2.5 g kg−1 for specific humidity, and 15%–20% of the total cloud cover. The highest random sampling errors in surface fluxes were found for the sensible and latent heat flux and range from 30 to 80 W m−2. Total sampling errors in poorly sampled areas may be higher than random ones by 60%. In poorly sampled subpolar latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and throughout much of the Southern Ocean the total sampling uncertainty in the net heat flux can amount to 80–100 W m−2. The highest values of the uncertainties associated with the interpolation/extrapolation into unsampled grid boxes are found in subpolar latitudes of both hemispheres for the turbulent fluxes, where they can be comparable with the sampling errors. Simple dependencies of the sampling errors on the number of samples and the magnitude of synoptic variability were derived. Sampling errors estimated from different reanalyses and from seasonal forecasts yield qualitatively comparable spatial patterns, in which the actual values of uncertainties are controlled by the magnitudes of synoptic variability. Finally, estimates of sampling uncertainties are compared with the other errors in air–sea fluxes and the reliability of the estimates obtained is discussed.

Description: The tropical oceans have long been recognized as the most important region for large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions, giving rise to coupled climate variations on several time scales. During the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) decade, the focus of much tropical ocean research was on understanding El Niño–related processes and on development of tropical ocean models capable of simulating and predicting El Niño. These studies led to an appreciation of the vital role the ocean plays in providing the memory for predicting El Niño and thus making seasonal climate prediction feasible. With the end of TOGA and the beginning of Climate Variability and Prediction (CLIVAR), the scope of climate variability and predictability studies has expanded from the tropical Pacific and ENSO-centric basis to the global domain. In this paper the progress that has been made in tropical ocean climate studies during the early years of CLIVAR is discussed. The discussion is divided geographically into three tropical ocean basins with an emphasis on the dynamical processes that are most relevant to the coupling between the atmosphere and oceans. For the tropical Pacific, the continuing effort to improve understanding of large- and small-scale dynamics for the purpose of extending the skill of ENSO prediction is assessed. This paper then goes beyond the time and space scales of El Niño and discusses recent research activities on the fundamental issue of the processes maintaining the tropical thermocline. This includes the study of subtropical cells (STCs) and ventilated thermocline processes, which are potentially important to the understanding of the low-frequency modulation of El Niño. For the tropical Atlantic, the dominant oceanic processes that interact with regional atmospheric feedbacks are examined as well as the remote influence from both the Pacific El Niño and extratropical climate fluctuations giving rise to multiple patterns of variability distinguished by season and location. The potential impact of Atlantic thermohaline circulation on tropical Atlantic variability (TAV) is also discussed. For the tropical Indian Ocean, local and remote mechanisms governing low-frequency sea surface temperature variations are examined. After reviewing the recent rapid progress in the understanding of coupled dynamics in the region, this study focuses on the active role of ocean dynamics in a seasonally locked east–west internal mode of variability, known as the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Influences of the IOD on climatic conditions in Asia, Australia, East Africa, and Europe are discussed. While the attempt throughout is to give a comprehensive overview of what is known about the role of the tropical oceans in climate, the fact of the matter is that much remains to be understood and explained. The complex nature of the tropical coupled phenomena and the interaction among them argue strongly for coordinated and sustained observations, as well as additional careful modeling investigations in order to further advance the current understanding of the role of tropical oceans in climate.

Description: Repeated shipboard observation sections across the boundary flow off northeastern Brazil as well as acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and current-meter records from a moored boundary array deployed during 2000–04 near 11°S are analyzed here for both the northward warm water flow by the North Brazil Undercurrent (NBUC) above approximately 1100 m and the southward flow of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) underneath. At 5°S, the mean from nine sections yields an NBUC transport of 26.5 ± 3.7 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) along the boundary; at 11°S the mean NBUC transport from five sections is 25.4 ± 7.4 Sv, confirming that the NBUC is already well developed at 11°S. At both latitudes a persistent offshore southward recirculation between 200- and 1100-m depth reduces the net northward warm water flow through the 5°S section (west of 31.5°W) to 22.1 ± 5.3 Sv and through the 11°S section to 21.7 ± 4.1 Sv (west of 32.0°W). The 4-yr-long NBUC transport time series from 11°S yields a seasonal cycle of 2.5 Sv amplitude with its northward maximum in July. Interannual NBUC transport variations are small, varying only by ±1.2 Sv during the four years, with no detectable trend. The southward flow of NADW within the deep western boundary current at 5°S is 25.5 ± 8.3 Sv with an offshore northward recirculation, yielding a nine-section mean of 20.3 ± 10.1 Sv west of 31.5°W. For Antarctic Bottom Water, a net northward flow of 4.4 ± 3.0 Sv is determined at 5°S. For the 11°S section, the moored array data show a pronounced energy maximum at 60–70-day period in the NADW depth range, which was identified in related work as deep eddies translating southward along the boundary. Based on a kinematic eddy model fit to the first half of the moored time series, the mean NADW transfer by the deep eddies at 11°S was estimated to be about 17 Sv. Given the large interannual variability of the deep near-boundary transport time series, which ranged from 14 to 24 Sv, the 11°S mean was considered to be not distinguishable from the mean at 5°S

Description: Several recent general circulation model studies discuss the predictability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, suggesting that it is predictable because of coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Indian Ocean. However, it is not clear from these studies how much of the predictability is due to the response to El Nino. It is shown in this note that a simple statistical model that treats the Indian Ocean as a red noise process forced by tropical Pacific SST shows forecast skills comparable to those of recent general circulation model studies. The results also indicate that some of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean SST predictability in recent studies may indeed be beyond the skill of the simple model proposed in this note, indicating that dynamics in the Indian Ocean may have caused this improved predictability in this region. The model further indicates that the IOD index may be the least predictable index of Indian Ocean SST variability. The model is proposed as a null hypothesis for Indian Ocean SST predictions.

Description: A characteristic feature of global warming is the land-sea contrast, with stronger warming over land than over oceans. Recent studies find that this land-sea contrast also exists in equilibrium global change scenarios, and it is caused by differences in the availability of surface moisture over land and oceans. In this study it is illustrated that this land-sea contrast exists also on interannual time scales and that the ocean-land interaction is strongly asymmetric. The land surface temperature is more sensitive to the oceans than the oceans are to the land surface temperature, which is related to the processes causing the land-sea contrast in global warming scenarios. It suggests that the ocean's natural variability and change is leading to variability and change with enhanced magnitudes over the continents, causing much of the longer-time-scale (decadal) global-scale continental climate variability. Model simulations illustrate that continental warming due to anthropogenic forcing (e. g., the warming at the end of the last century or future climate change scenarios) is mostly (80%-90%) indirectly forced by the contemporaneous ocean warming, not directly by local radiative forcing.

Description: The Equatorial Deep Jets (EDJs) are an ubiquitous feature of the equatorial oceans; in the Atlantic Ocean, they are the dominant mode of interannual variability of the zonal flow at intermediate depth. On the basis of more than 10 years of moored observations of zonal velocity at 23°W, the vertically propagating EDJs are best described as superimposed oscillations of the 13th to the 23th baroclinic modes with a dominant oscillation period for all modes of 1650 days. This period is close to the resonance period of the respective gravest equatorial basin mode for the dominant vertical modes 16 and 17. It is argued that since the equatorial basin mode is composed of linear equatorial waves, a linear reduced gravity model can be employed for each baroclinic mode, driven by spatially homogeneous zonal forcing oscillating with the EDJ period. The fit of the model solutions to observations at 23°W yields a basin wide reconstruction of the EDJs and the associated vertical structure of their forcing. From the resulting vertical profile of mean power input and vertical energy flux on the equator, it follows that the EDJs are locally maintained over a considerable depth range, from 500-2500 m, with the maximum power input and vertical energy flux at 1300 m. The strong dissipation closely ties the apparent vertical propagation of energy to the vertical distribution of power input and, together with the EDJs’ prevailing downward phase propagation, require the phase of the forcing of the EDJs to propagate downward.

Description: The temporal changes in the low-frequency thermal structure during a two-week period in August-September 1978 are discussed from moored data collected during the JASIN experiment. While some changes in the thermal structure appear to be related to local winds, the dominant low-frequency variability in the seasonal thermocline can be explained as horizontal advection of a spatially varying temperature field, and associated thermal wind, by geostrophic currents with little vertical motion or mixing required.

Description: A German national project coordinates research on improving a global decadal climate prediction system for future operational use. MiKlip, an eight-year German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the climate model MPI-ESM together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that targets future operational use. Three prediction-system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multi-year-mean European summer surface temperatures, extra-tropical cyclone tracks, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays hindcast skill for wind-energy output. A new volcano code package permits rapid modification of the predictions in response to a future eruption. MiKlip has demonstrated the efficacy of subjecting a single global prediction system to a major research effort. The benefits of this strategy include the rapid cycling through the prediction-system generations, the development of a sophisticated evaluation package usable by all MiKlip researchers, and regional applications of the global predictions. Open research questions include the optimal balance between model resolution and ensemble size, the appropriate method for constructing a prediction ensemble, and the decision between full-field and anomaly initialization. Operational use of the MiKlip system is targeted for the end of the current decade, with a recommended generational cycle of two to three years.

Description: This paper proposes improved guidelines for dissolved organic matter (DOM) isolation by solid phase extraction (SPE) with a styrene-divinylbenzene copolymer (PPL) sorbent, which has become an established method for the isolation of DOM from natural waters, because of its ease of application and appreciable carbon recovery. Suwannee River water was selected to systematically study the effects of critical SPE variables such as loading mass, concentration, flow rate, and up-scaling on the extraction selectivity of the PPL sorbent. High-field Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR MS) and proton nuclear magnetic resonance (H-1 NMR) spectroscopy were performed to interpret the DOM chemical space of eluates, as well as permeates and-wash liquids with molecular resolution. Up to 89% dissolved organic carbon (DOC) recovery was obtained with a DOC/PPL mass ratio of 1:800 at a DOC concentration of 20 mg/L. With the 0 application of larger loading volumes, low proportions of highly oxygenated compounds were retained on the PPL sorbent. The effects of the flow rate on the extraction selectivity of the sorbent were marginal. Up-scaling had a limited effect on the extraction selectivity with the exception of increased self-esterification with a methanol solvent, resulting in methyl ester groups. Furthermore, the SPE/PPL extract exhibited highly authentic characteristics in comparison with original water and reverse osmosis samples. These findings will be useful for reproducibly isolating DOM with representative molecular compositions from various sources and concentrations and minimizing potential inconsistencies among interlaboratory comparative studies.

Description: Metabolomics offers great potential for understanding the metabolic consequences of exposure to chemicals and other stressors in the environment. Biological systems encompass humans exposed to chemicals in the environment as well as the diverse organisms inhabiting an ecosystem and exposed to environmental contaminants. An overall goal of environmental metabolomics is to understand what is metabolomically “normal” or adaptive and what constitutes a threat to human health and the environment.

Description: Isolated compact anticyclonic eddies or salt lenses were found in the Canary Basin. Hydrographic surveys of three such lenses show large anomalies of salinity and temperature (∼0.8, 2.5°C). They are centered at ∼1100 m, have a vertical extent of up to 900 m and radii of ∼50 km. Current meter records indicate anticyclonic velocities up to 29 cm s−1. Fine structure with vertical scales of ∼20 m and less, possibly due to intrusive decay, appears at the outer edges of the lenses whereas the centers are free of such structure. The probability of finding a salt lens at any station in the Canary Basin is fairly high (∼0.08).

Description: Latent heat fluxes (LHF) play an essential role in the global energy budget and are thus important for understanding the climate system. Satellite-based remote sensing permits a large-scale determination of LHF, which, amongst others, are based on near-surface specific humidity qa. However, the qa random retrieval error (Etot) remains unknown. Here, a novel approach is presented to quantify the error contributions to pixel-level qa of the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite (HOAPS, version 3.2) dataset. The methodology makes use of multiple triple collocation (MTC) analysis between 1995-2008 over the global ice-free oceans. Apart from satellite records, these datasets include selected ship records extracted from the Seewetteramt Hamburg (SWA) archive and the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), serving as the in-situ ground reference. The MTC approach permits the derivation of Etot as the sum of model uncertainty EM and sensor noise EN, while random uncertainties due to in-situ measurement errors (Eins) and collocation (EC) are isolated concurrently. Results show an Etot average of 1.1 ± 0.3 g kg-1, whereas the mean EC (Eins) is in the order of 0.5 ± 0.1 g kg-1 (0.5 ± 0.3 g kg-1). Regional analyses indicate a maximum of Etot exceeding 1.5 g kg-1 within humidity regimes of 12-17 g kg-1, associated with the single-parameter, multilinear qa retrieval applied in HOAPS. Multi-dimensional bias analysis reveals that global maxima are located off the Arabian Peninsula.

Description: Seasonal variability of the tropical Atlantic circulation is dominated by the annual cycle, but semi-annual variability is also pronounced, despite weak forcing at that period. Here we use multi-year, full-depth velocity measurements from the central equatorial Atlantic to analyze the vertical structure of annual and semi-annual variations of zonal velocity. A baroclinic modal decomposition finds that the annual cycle is dominated by the 4th mode and the semi-annual cycle by the 2nd mode. Similar local behavior is found in a high-resolution general circulation model. This simulation reveals that the annual and semi-annual cycles of the respective dominant baroclinic modes are associated with characteristic basin-wide structures. Using an idealized linear reduced-gravity model to simulate the dynamics of individual baroclinic modes, it is shown that the observed circulation variability can be explained by resonant equatorial basin modes. Corollary simulations of the reduced-gravity model with varying basin geometry (i.e. square basin versus realistic coastlines) or forcing (i.e. spatially uniform versus spatially variable wind) show a structural robustness of the simulated basin modes. A main focus of this study is the seasonal variability of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) as identified in recent observational studies. Main characteristics of the observed EUC including seasonal variability of transport, core depth, and maximum core velocity can be explained by the linear superposition of the dominant equatorial basin modes as obtained from the reduced-gravity model.

Description: By performing two sets of high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, we find that the atmospheric response to a sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the extratropical North Pacific is sensitive to decadal variations of the background SST on which the SST anomaly is superimposed. The response in the first set of experiments, in which the SST anomaly is superimposed on the observed daily SST of 1981-1990, strongly differs from the response in the second experiment, in which the same SST anomaly is superimposed on the observed daily SST of 1991-2000. The atmospheric response over the North Pacific during 1981-1990 is eddy-mediated, equivalent barotropic and concentrated in the east. In contrast, the atmospheric response during 1991-2000 is weaker and strongest in the west. The results are discussed in terms of Rossby wave dynamics, with the proposed primary wave source switching from baroclinic eddy vorticity forcing over the eastern North Pacific in 1981-1990 to mean flow divergence over the western North Pacific in 1991-2000. The wave source changes are linked to the decadal reduction of daily SST variability over the eastern North Pacific and strengthening of the Oyashio Extension front over the western North Pacific. Thus, both daily and frontal aspects of the background SST variability in determining the atmospheric response to extratropical North Pacific SST anomalies are emphasized by our AGCM experiments.

Description: The causes and characteristics of interannual–decadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the North Atlantic are investigated with a suite of basin-scale ocean models [the Family of Linked Atlantic Model Experiments (FLAME)] and global ocean–ice models (ORCA), varying in resolution from medium to eddy resolving (½°–1/12°), using various forcing configurations built on bulk formulations invoking atmospheric reanalysis products. Comparison of the model hindcasts indicates similar MOC variability characteristics on time scales up to a decade; both model architectures also simulate an upward trend in MOC strength between the early 1970s and mid-1990s. The causes of the MOC changes are examined by perturbation experiments aimed selectively at the response to individual forcing components. The solutions emphasize an inherently linear character of the midlatitude MOC variability by demonstrating that the anomalies of a (non–eddy resolving) hindcast simulation can be understood as a superposition of decadal and longer-term signals originating from thermohaline forcing variability, and a higher-frequency wind-driven variability. The thermohaline MOC signal is linked to the variability in subarctic deep-water formation, and rapidly progressing to the tropical Atlantic. However, throughout the subtropical and midlatitude North Atlantic, this signal is effectively masked by stronger MOC variability related to wind forcing and, especially north of 30°–35°N, by internally induced (eddy) fluctuations.

Description: Output from an eddy-resolving model of the North Atlantic Ocean is used to estimate values for the thickness diffusivity κ appropriate to the Gent and McWilliams parameterization. The effect of different choices of rotational eddy fluxes on the estimated κ is discussed. Using the raw fluxes (no rotational flux removed), large negative values (exceeding −5000 m2 s−1) of κ are diagnosed locally, particularly in the Gulf Stream region and in the equatorial Atlantic. Removing a rotational flux based either on the suggestion of Marshall and Shutts or the more general theory of Medvedev and Greatbatch leads to a reduction of the negative values, but they are still present. The regions where κ 〈 0 correspond to regions where eddies are acting to increase, rather than decrease (as in baroclinic instability) the mean available potential energy. In the subtropical gyre, κ ranges between 500 and 2000 m2 s−1, rapidly decreasing to zero below the thermocline in all cases. Rotational fluxes and κ are also estimated using an optimization technique. In this case, |κ| can be reduced or increased by construction, but the regions where κ 〈 0 are still present and the optimized rotational fluxes also remain similar to a priori values given by the theoretical considerations. A previously neglected component (ν) of the bolus velocity is associated with the horizontal flux of buoyancy along, rather than across, the mean buoyancy contours. The ν component of the bolus velocity is interpreted as a streamfunction for eddy-induced advection, rather than diffusion, of mean isopycnal layer thickness, showing up when the lateral eddy fluxes cannot be described by isotropic diffusion only. All estimates show a similar large-scale pattern for ν, implying westward advection of isopycnal thickness over much of the subtropical gyre. Comparing ν with a mean streamfunction shows that it is about 10% of the mean in midlatitudes and even larger than the mean in the Tropics.