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  • 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis  (1)
  • By catch  (1)
  • Wiley  (2)
  • 2015-2019  (1)
  • 2005-2009  (1)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short-term volcanic hazard), for short-term near-real-time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short-term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short-term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly evolving crisis, accurately accounting for and propagating all uncertainties and enabling rational decision making under uncertainty.
    Description: Published
    Description: 8805–8826
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: embargoed_20161231
    Keywords: short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis ; bayesian event tree ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-05-19
    Description: 1. Seahorses (Hippocampus spp.), many of which are listed as Vulnerable or Endangered on the IUCN Red List, are traded worldwide as souvenirs, aquarium fish and, primarily, for use in traditional medicines. Given concern over the sustainability of this trade, the genus was added to Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) in May 2004. 2. This paper reports findings of the first ever survey of seahorse trade in Africa, conducted in Kenya and Tanzania in May and June 2000. 3. Seahorse trade in Kenya was found to be negligible, with approximately 10 live seahorses exported as aquarium fish annually. Until 1998, however, Kenya may have imported somewhere from 1 to 2.3 t of dried seahorses annually from Tanzania for re-export to Asian medicine markets. Seahorse trade in Tanzania remained substantial, with at least 630–930 kg of dried seahorse exported directly to Asia each year. 4. Accounts of declines in seahorse availability and seahorse size, although few in number, could be early warning signs that wild populations are suffering, at least locally. Close monitoring of future developments in the trade will be essential to allow for timely conservation action as and when necessary, and would contribute to our understanding of the ecological and economical implications of small-scale, non-food fisheries. Copyright # 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Description: Published
    Keywords: Hippocampus spp ; By catch ; Non-food fisheries ; Seahorse trade ; Endangered species ; Aquatic animals
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: Journal Contribution , Non-Refereed , Article
    Format: 438174 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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