ALBERT

Beschreibung: Glacial isostatic adjustment is largely governed by the rheological properties of the Earth's mantle. Large mass redistributions in the ocean–cryosphere system and the subsequent response of the viscoelastic Earth have led to dramatic sea level changes in the past. This process is ongoing, and in order to understand and predict current and future sea level changes, the knowledge of mantle properties such as viscosity is essential. In this study, we present a method to obtain estimates of mantle viscosities by the assimilation of relative sea level rates of change into a viscoelastic model of the lithosphere and mantle. We set up a particle filter with probabilistic resampling. In an identical twin experiment, we show that mantle viscosities can be recovered in a glacial isostatic adjustment model of a simple three-layer Earth structure consisting of an elastic lithosphere and two mantle layers of different viscosity. We investigate the ensemble behaviour on different parameters in the following three set-ups: (1) global observations data set since last glacial maximum with different ensemble initialisations and observation uncertainties, (2) regional observations from Fennoscandia or Laurentide/Greenland only, and (3) limiting the observation period to 10 ka until the present. We show that the recovery is successful in all cases if the target parameter values are properly sampled by the initial ensemble probability distribution. This even includes cases in which the target viscosity values are located far in the tail of the initial ensemble probability distribution. Experiments show that the method is successful if enough near-field observations are available. This makes it work best for a period after substantial deglaciation until the present when the number of sea level indicators is relatively high.

Beschreibung: Millions of tons of plastic waste are released into the marine environment every year. While they steadily accumulate, synthetic polymers provide a habitat for microorganisms. This denominated Plastisphere has been studied in detail over the past ten years. So have the enzymes responsible for microbial degradation, which are unfortunately lacking for most sorts of plastics. Therefore, the BMBF-funded project PLASTISEA is focusing on bioprospecting the marine treasure trove for novel plastic acting enzymes.

Beschreibung: Many of the socio-economic and environmental challenges of the 21st century like the growing energy and food demand, rising sea levels and temperatures put stress on marine ecosystems and coastal populations. This requires a significant strengthening of our monitoring capacities for processes in the water column, at the seafloor and in the subsurface. However, present-day seafloor instruments and the required infrastructure to operate these are expensive and inaccessible. We envision a future Internet of Underwater Things, composed of small and cheap but intelligent underwater nodes. Each node will be equipped with sensing, communication, and computing capabilities. Building on distributed event detection and cross-domain data fusion, such an Internet of Underwater Things will enable new applications. In this paper, we argue that to make this vision a reality, we need new methodologies for resource-efficient and distributed cross-domain data fusion. Resource-efficient, distributed neural networks will serve as data-analytics pipelines to derive highly aggregated patterns of interest from raw data. These will serve as (1) a common base in time and space for fusion of heterogeneous data, and (2) be sufficiently small to be transmitted efficiently in resource-constrained settings.

Beschreibung: Die Messung submariner Bodendeformationen an den Flanken von Inselvulkanen hilft dabei, ihre Stabilität und die Gefahr von Hangrutschungen einzuschätzen, ist aber inherent schwierig für Gebiete, die unter Wasser liegen. Wiederholte Seismik- oder Fächerecholot-Vermessungen können größere Gebiete abdecken, aber Auflösung und Lokalisierung sind bestimmten Grenzen unterworfen. Optische Daten andererseits sind besser aufgelöst, aber limitiert in ihrer räumlichen Abdeckung, und Meeresbodengeodäsie wiederum liefert nur punktuelle Information. In diesem Artikel schlagen wir vor, verschiedene Arten von Fernerkundungsdaten zusammenzubringen und auch mit bestehenden statischen und dynamischen Modellen zu verschneiden. Aufgrund ihrer verschiedenen Modalitäten, Unsicherheiten und Skalierungen ist dies jedoch schwierig und bedarf einer Fusion. Zusammen mit anderen Aspekten (Erdbeben, Strömungen etc.) sollen die fusionierten Daten und Modelle langfristig neue Einblicke in das dynamische System des sich verändernden Meeresbodens, die dafür verantwortlichen Faktoren sowie die Auswirkungen instabiler submariner Hänge auf andere Meeressysteme bieten.

Beschreibung: Based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO of Germany's national meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD), regional reanalysis datasets have been developed with grid spacing of up to 2 km. This development started as a fundamental research activity within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ) at the University of Bonn and the University of Cologne. Today, COSMO reanalyses are an established product of the DWD and have been widely used in applications on European and national German level. Successful applications of COSMO reanalyses include renewable energy assessments as well as meteorological risk estimates. The COSMO reanalysis datasets are now publicly available and provide spatio-temporal consistent data of atmospheric parameters covering both near-surface conditions and vertical profiles. This article reviews the status of the COSMO reanalyses, including evaluation results and applications. In many studies, evaluation of the COSMO reanalyses point to an overall good quality and often an added value compared to different contemporary global reanalysis datasets. We further outline current plans for the further development and application of regional reanalyses in the HErZ research group Cologne/Bonn in collaboration with the DWD.

Beschreibung: The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

Beschreibung: We present the result of the third Marine Ice Sheet Intercomparison project, MISMIP+. MISMIP+ is intended to be a test of ice flow models which include fast sliding marine ice streams and floating ice shelves and in particular a treatment of viscous stress that is sufficient for buttressing, where upstream ice flow is restrained by a downstream ice shelf. A set of idealized experiments test the models in circumstances where buttressing contributes to a stable steady state, and where a reduction in that buttressing causes ice stream acceleration, thinning, and grounding line retreat. We find that the most important distinction between models in this particular type of simulation is in the treatment of sliding at the bed, with other distinctions – notably the difference between the simpler and more complete treatments of englacial stress, but also the differences between numerical methods – taking a secondary role.

Beschreibung: Varved lake sediments provide long climatic records with high temporal resolution and low associated age uncertainty. Robust and detailed comparison of well-dated and annually laminated sediment records is crucial for reconstructing abrupt and regionally time-transgressive changes as well as validation of spatial and temporal trajectories of past climatic changes. The VARved sediments DAtabase (VARDA) presented here is the first data compilation for varve chronologies and associated palaeoclimatic proxy records. The current version 1.0 allows detailed comparison of published varve records from 95 lakes. VARDA is freely accessible and was created to assess outputs from climate models with high-resolution terrestrial palaeoclimatic proxies. VARDA additionally provides a technical environment that enables to explore the database of varved lake sediments using a connected data-model and can generate a state-of-the-art graphic representation of multi-site comparison. This allows to reassess existing chronologies and tephra events to synchronize and compare even distant varved lake records. Furthermore, the present version of VARDA permits to explore varve thickness data. In this paper, we report in detail on the data mining and compilation strategies for the identification of varved lakes and assimilation of high-resolution chronologies as well as the technical infrastructure of the database. Additional paleoclimate proxy data will be provided in forthcoming updates. The VARDA graph-database and user interface can be accessed online at https://varve.gfz-potsdam.de, all datasets of version 1.0 are available at http://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.3.2019.003 (Ramisch et al., 2019).

Beschreibung: Various observational estimates indicate growing mass loss at Antarctica's margins but also heavier precipitation across the continent. In the future, heavier precipitation fallen on Antarctica will counteract any stronger iceberg discharge and increased basal melting of floating ice shelves driven by a warming ocean. Here, we use from nine CMIP5 models future projections, ranging from strong mitigation efforts to business-as-usual, to run an ensemble of ice-sheet simulations. We test, how the precipitation boundary condition determines Antarctica's sea-level contribution. The spatial and temporal varying climate forcings drive ice-sheet simulations. Hence, our ensemble inherits all spatial and temporal climate patterns, which is in contrast to a spatial mean forcing. Regardless of the applied boundary condition and forcing, some areas will lose ice in the future, such as the glaciers from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet draining into the Amundsen Sea. In general the simulated ice-sheet thickness grows in a broad marginal strip, where incoming storms deliver topographically controlled precipitation. This strip shows the largest ice thickness differences between the applied precipitation boundary conditions too. On average Antarctica's ice mass shrinks for all future scenarios if the precipitation is scaled by the spatial temperature anomalies coming from the CMIP5 models. In this approach, we use the relative precipitation increment per degree warming as invariant scaling constant. In contrast, Antarctica gains mass in our simulations if we apply the simulated precipitation anomalies of the CMIP5 models directly. Here, the scaling factors show a distinct spatial pattern across Antarctica. Furthermore, the diagnosed mean scaling across all considered climate forcings is larger than the values deduced from ice cores. In general, the scaling is higher across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, lower across the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and lowest around the Siple Coast. The latter is located on the east side of the Ross Ice Shelf.

Beschreibung: A finely laminated lake sediment record with a basal age of 11,619 ± 603 years BP was retrieved from Lake Chatyr Kol (Kyrgyz Republic). Microfacies analysis reveals the presence of seasonal laminae (varves) from the sediment basis to ~ 360 ± 40 years BP. The Chatvd19 floating varve chronology covers the time span from 360 ± 40 years BP to the base and relies on replicate varve counts on overlapping petrographic thin sections with an uncertainty of ± 5 %. The uppermost non-varved interval was chronologically constrained by 210Pb and 137Cs γ-spectrometry and interpolation based on varve thickness measurements of adjacent varved intervals with an assumed uncertainty of 10 %. Six varve types were distinguished, are described in detail and show a changing predominance of clastic-organic, clastic-calcitic or -aragonitic, calcitic-clastic, organic-clastic and clastic-diatom varves throughout the Holocene. Variations in varve thickness and the number and composition of seasonal sublayers are attributed to 1) changes in the amount of summer or winter/spring precipitation affecting local runoff and erosion and/or to 2) evaporative conditions during summer. Radiocarbon dating of bulk organic matter, daphnia remains, aquatic plant remains and Ruppia maritima seeds reveal reservoir ages with a clear decreasing trend up core from ~ 6,150 years in the early Holocene, to ~ 3,000 years in the mid-Holocene, to ~ 1,000 years and less in the late Holocene and modern times. In contrast, two radiocarbon dates from terrestrial plant remains are in good agreement with the varve-based chronology.