ALBERT

Description: This study investigates the mesoscale dynamics involved in the 8–11 October 2008 unseasonably strong African dust episode, during which dust was transported to the Iberian Peninsula (IP). We employ observational datasets and a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry simulations. The analysis shows that during 0900–1200 UTC 9 October, a mesoscale convective system developed over the Atlas Mountains and resulted in a southwestward propagating convective cold pool outflow on the southern foothills of the Anti-Atlas, which lifted dust from the source region. Between 1200 and 1800 UTC 9 October, new moist convection was enhanced over the Atlas Mountains due to intensifying confluence among a heat low, moist southwesterly Atlantic sea-breeze front, and northeasterly flow associated with the convective cold pool near western Algeria. This new moist convection intensified the strength of the convective cold pool outflow and haboob, both of which continued propagating southwestward. At 1200 UTC 10 October, the low-pressure system migrated poleward on the southern slopes of the Anti-Atlas Mountains in association with a mountain-plains solenoidal circulation due to the daytime differential heating between the southern slopes of the Anti-Atlas and nearby atmosphere. The deepening low-pressure and strengthening Atlantic sea-breeze redirected an equatorward advancing dust plume into the poleward direction. The dust plume ultimately crossed the Saharan Atlas Mountains on 11 October and finally impacted the IP. Key Points: - WRF-Chem simulation of an unseasonably strong haboob on the southern slopes of the Atlas Mountains - The equatorward-advancing dust plume was recirculated in the poleward direction by an Atlantic sea-breeze front - The Atlantic sea-breeze front and an intensified upper-level cutoff vortex are instrumental for dust transport over the Iberian Peninsula

Description: Despite the implication of aerosols for the radiation budget, there are persistent differences in data for the aerosol optical depth (τ) for 1998–2019. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of the large-scale spatio-temporal patterns of mid-visible τ from modern data sets. In total, we assessed 94 different global data sets from eight satellite retrievals, four aerosol-climate model ensembles, one operational ensemble product, two reanalyses, one climatology and one merged satellite product. We include the new satellite data SLSTR and aerosol-climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models Phase 3 (AeroCom-III). Our intercomparison highlights model differences and observational uncertainty. Spatial mean τ for 60°N – 60°S ranges from 0.124 to 0.164 for individual satellites, with a mean of 0.14. Averaged τ from aerosol-climate model ensembles fall within this satellite range, but individual models do not. Our assessment suggests no systematic improvement compared to CMIP5 and AeroCom-I. Although some regional biases have been reduced, τ from both CMIP6 and AeroCom-III are for instance substantially larger along extra-tropical storm tracks compared to the satellite products. The considerable uncertainty in observed τ implies that a model evaluation based on a single satellite product might draw biased conclusions. This underlines the need for continued efforts to improve both model and satellite estimates of τ, for example, through measurement campaigns in areas of particularly uncertain satellite estimates identified in this study, to facilitate a better understanding of aerosol effects in the Earth system. Key Points: - Present-day patterns in aerosol optical depth differ substantially between 94 modern global data sets - The range in spatial means from individual satellites is −11% to +17% of the multi-satellite mean - Spatial means from climate model intercomparison projects fall within the satellite range but strong regional differences are identified

Description: Solar radiation received at the Earth's surface (Rs) is comprised of two components, the direct radiation (Rd) and the diffuse radiation (Rf). Rd, the direct beam from the sun, is essential for concentrated solar power generation. Rf, scattered by atmospheric molecules, aerosols, or cloud droplets, has a fertilization effect on plant photosynthesis. But how Rd and Rf change diurnally is largely unknown owing to the lack of long-term measurements. Taking advantage of 22 years of homogeneous hourly surface observations over China, this study documents the climatological means and evolutions in the diurnal cycles of Rd and Rf since 1993, with an emphasis on their implications for solar power and agricultural production. Over the solar energy resource region, we observe a loss of Rd which is relatively large near sunrise and sunset at low solar elevation angles when the sunrays pass through the atmosphere on a longer pathway. However, the concentrated Rd energy covering an average 10-hr period around noon during a day is relatively unaffected. Over the agricultural crop resource region, the large amounts of clouds and aerosols scattering more of the incoming light result in Rf taking the main proportion of Rs during the whole day. Rf resources and their fertilization effect in the main crop region of China further enhances since 1993 over almost all hours of the day. Key Points: - The loss of direct radiation over China since 1993 is relatively large at sunrise and sunset with little effect on solar power generation - The diffuse component dominates solar radiation normally near sunrise and sunset, but for the whole day over the main sown area of China - The diffuse fraction is further enhanced in the main sown area of China over almost all hours of the day since 1993

Description: Julia code to calculate recurrence plots of the Rössler system: - calculated from the original continuous data (regular recurrence plot) and - from the events series representing the maxima of the x-component (edit distance recurrence plot).

Description: Dataset containing all greenhouse gas emissions data submitted by countries under climate change convention (including CRF data) as published by the UNFCCC secretariat at 2022-12-13.

Description: PRIMAP2 is the next generation of the PRIMAP climate policy analysis suite.

Description: PRIMAP2 is the next generation of the PRIMAP climate policy analysis suite.

Description: Climate engineering (CE) measures are increasingly discussed when dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change. While much research has focused on individual methods, few studies attempt to compare and rank the effectiveness of these measures. Furthermore, model uncertainties are seldom acknowledged and lesser still, estimated when CE scenarios are assessed. In this work, we quantify the variance in outcomes due to poorly constrained model parameters under several idealized CE scenarios. The four scenarios considered are (1) warming under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 without CE applied and the same emission scenario with (2) afforestation,(3) solar radiation management, and (4) artificial ocean alkalinization. By considering the parametric uncertainty in model outputs, we demonstrate the problems with comparing these scenarios using a single parameter setting. Using statistical emulation, we estimate the probability distributions of several model outcomes. Based on such distributions, we suggest an approach to ranking the effectiveness of the scenarios considered according to their probability of avoiding climate thresholds.

Description: A new estimate of Agulhas leakage transport is calculated using profiling floats and drifters. Since Richardson's seminal estimate of 15 Sv in 2007, the number of floats and drifters passing through the Agulhas Current has quadrupled. Within uncertainties we find the same leakage percentages as Richardson, with 34% of drifters leaking at the surface and 21% of floats leaking at 1,000 m depth. We find that the drifters tend to follow a northward leakage pathway via the Benguela Current compared to the northwestward leakage pathway of the floats along the Agulhas Ring corridor. We simulate the isobaric and profiling behavior of the floats and drifters using two high resolution models and two offline Lagrangian tracking tools, quantifying for the first time the sampling biases associated with the observations. We find that the isobaric bias cannot be robustly simulated but likely causes an underestimate of observed leakage by one or two Sverdrups. The profiling behavior of the floats causes no significant bias in the leakage. Fitting a simulated vertical leakage profile to the observed leakage percentages from the floats and drifters and using the mean Agulhas transport observed by a moored array at 34°S we find an improved Agulhas leakage transport of 21.3 Sv, with an estimated error of 4.7 Sv. Our new leakage transport is higher primarily because we account for leakage at depths down to 2,000 m, while Richardson considered only the top 1,000 m of the water column.

Description: Upwelling ocean currents associated with oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) supply nutrients fuelling intense marine productivity. Perturbations in the extent and intensity of OMZs are projected in the future, but it is currently uncertain how this will impact fluxes of redox‐sensitive trace metal micronutrients to the surface ocean. Here we report seawater concentrations of Fe, Mn, Co, Cd, and Ni alongside the redox indicator iodide/iodate in the Peruvian OMZ during the 2015 El Niño event. The El Niño drove atypical upwelling of oxygen‐enriched water over the Peruvian Shelf, resulting in oxidized iodine and strongly depleted Fe (II), total dissolved Fe, and reactive particulate Fe concentrations relative to non‐El Niño conditions. Observations of Fe were matched by the redox‐sensitive micronutrients Co and Mn, but not by non‐redox‐sensitive Cd and Ni. These observations demonstrate that oxygenation of OMZs significantly reduces water column inventories of redox‐sensitive micronutrients, with potential impacts on ocean productivity. Plain Language Summary Some trace metals, including iron, are essential micronutrients for phytoplankton growth. However, the solubility of iron is very low under oxygenated conditions. Consequently, restricted iron availability in oxygen‐rich seawater can limit phytoplankton growth in the ocean, including in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific. Under typical conditions, depleted oxygen on the South American continental shelf is generally thought to enhance iron supply to the ocean, fuelling phytoplankton productivity in overlying waters. However, the impact of changes in oxygenation, which are predicted to occur in the future, are not known. The 2015 El Niño event led to unusually high oxygen on the Peruvian shelf, offering a system‐scale test on how oxygen influences seawater iron concentrations. We show that El Niño‐driven oxygenation resulted in marked decreases in iron and other metals sensitive to oxygen (cobalt and manganese), whilst metals not sensitive to oxygen (cadmium and nickel) were unaffected. The measured reductions in iron may have led to decreased phytoplankton productivity.