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  • Nature Publishing Group  (11,532)
  • Oxford University Press  (2,177)
  • American Meteorological Society
  • Institute of Physics
  • 2020-2024  (1,080)
  • 1940-1944  (16,515)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-07-02
    Description: The joint ESA/NASA Mass-change And Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC) has the objective to extend time-series from previous gravity missions, including an improvement of accuracy and spatio-temporal resolution. The long-term monitoring of Earth’s gravity field carries information on mass change induced by water cycle, climate change and mass transport processes between atmosphere, cryosphere, oceans and solid Earth. MAGIC will be composed of two satellite pairs flying in different orbit planes. The NASA/DLR-led first pair (P1) is expected to be in a near-polar orbit around 500 km of altitude; while the second ESA-led pair (P2) is expected to be in an inclined orbit of 65°–70° at approximately 400 km altitude. The ESA-led pair P2 Next Generation Gravity Mission shall be launched after P1 in a staggered manner to form the MAGIC constellation. The addition of an inclined pair shall lead to reduction of temporal aliasing effects and consequently of reliance on de-aliasing models and post-processing. The main novelty of the MAGIC constellation is the delivery of mass-change products at higher spatial resolution, temporal (i.e. subweekly) resolution, shorter latency and higher accuracy than the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO). This will pave the way to new science applications and operational services. In this paper, an overview of various fields of science and service applications for hydrology, cryosphere, oceanography, solid Earth, climate change and geodesy is provided. These thematic fields and newly enabled applications and services were analysed in the frame of the initial ESA Science Support activities for MAGIC. The analyses of MAGIC scenarios for different application areas in the field of geosciences confirmed that the double-pair configuration will significantly enlarge the number of observable mass-change phenomena by resolving smaller spatial scales with an uncertainty that satisfies evolved user requirements expressed by international bodies such as IUGG. The required uncertainty levels of dedicated thematic fields met by MAGIC unfiltered Level-2 products will benefit hydrological applications by recovering more than 90 per cent of the major river basins worldwide at 260 km spatial resolution, cryosphere applications by enabling mass change signal separation in the interior of Greenland from those in the coastal zones and by resolving small-scale mass variability in challenging regions such as the Antarctic Peninsula, oceanography applications by monitoring meridional overturning circulation changes on timescales of years and decades, climate applications by detecting amplitude and phase changes of Terrestrial Water Storage after 30 yr in 64 and 56 per cent of the global land areas and solid Earth applications by lowering the Earthquake detection threshold from magnitude 8.8 to magnitude 7.4 with spatial resolution increased to 333 km.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1288–1308
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-06-28
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉This study quantifies the state-of-the-art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multi-model dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–2020 for predictions of Pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on June 1, July 1, August 1, and September 1. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended Pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multi-model median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to Pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and Central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for Pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least three months in advance.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-06-24
    Description: Several species from various zooplankton taxa perform seasonal vertical migrations (SVM) of typically several hundred meters between the surface layer and overwintering depths, particularly in high-latitude regions. We use OPtimality-based PLAnkton (OPPLA) ecosystem model) to simulate SVM behavior in zooplankton in the Labrador Sea. Zooplankton in OPPLA is a generic functional group without life cycle, which facilitates analyzing SVM evolutionary stability and interactions between SVM and the plankton ecosystem. A sensitivity analysis of SVM-related parameters reveals that SVM can amplify the seasonal variations of phytoplankton and zooplankton and enhance the reduction of summer surface nutrient concentrations. SVM is often explained as a strategy to reduce exposure to visual predators during winter. We find that species doing SVM can persist and even dominate the summer-time zooplankton community, even in the presence of Stayers, which have the same traits as the migrators, but do not perform SVM. The advantage of SVM depends strongly on the timing of the seasonal migrations, particularly the day of ascent. The presence of higher (visual) predators tends to suppress the Stayers in our simulations, whereas the SVM strategy can persist in the presence of non-migrating species even without higher predators.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 37(8), pp. 2505-2518, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: A fundamental statistic of climate variability is its spatiotemporal correlation function. Its complex structure can be concisely summarized by a frequency-dependent measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom (ESDOF). Here we present, for the first time, frequency-dependent ESDOF estimates of global natural surface temperature variability from purely instrumental measurements, using the HadCRUT4 dataset (1850-2014). The approach is based on a newly developed method for estimating the frequency-dependent spatial correlation function from gappy data fields. Results reveal a multicomponent structure of the spatial correlation function, including a large-amplitude short-distance component (with weak time scale dependence) and a small-amplitude long-distance component (with increasing relative amplitude toward the longer time scales). Two frequency-dependent ESDOF measures are applied, each responding mainly to either of the two components. Both measures exhibit a significant ESDOF reduction from monthly to multidecadal time scales, implying an increase of the effective spatial scale of natural surface temperature fluctuations. Moreover, it is found that a good approximation to the global number of equally spaced samples needed to estimate the variance of global mean temperature is given, at any frequency, by the greater one of the two ESDOF measures, decreasing from ;130 at monthly to ;30 at multidecadal time scales. Finally, the multicomponent structure of the correlation function together with the detected ESDOF scaling properties indicate that the ESDOF reduction toward the longer time scales cannot be explained simply by diffusion acting on stochastically driven anomalies, as it might be suggested f rom simple stochastic-diffusive energy balance models.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 5
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 34(18), pp. 7373-7388, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: Climate variability occurs over wide ranges of spatial and temporal scales. It exhibits a complex spatial covariance structure, which depends on geographic location (e.g., tropics vs extratropics) and also consists of a superposition of (i) components with gradually decaying positive correlation functions and (ii) teleconnections that often involve anticorrelations. In addition, there are indications that the spatial covariance structure depends on frequency. Thus, a comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal covariance structure of climate variability would require an extensive set of statistical diagnostics. Therefore, it is often desirable to characterize the covariance structure by a simple summarizing metric that is easy to compute from datasets. Such summarizing metrics are useful, for example, in the context of comparisons between climate models or between models and observations. Here we introduce a frequency-dependent version of a simple measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom. The measure is based on the temporal variance of the global average of some climate variable, and its novel aspect consists in its frequency dependence. We also provide a clear geometric interpretation of the measure. Its easy applicability is demonstrated using near-surface temperature and precipitation fields obtained from a paleoclimate model simulation. This application reveals a distinct scaling behavior of the spatial degrees of freedom as a function of frequency, ranging from monthly to millennial scales.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2024-06-17
    Description: Thermobarometry provides a critical means of assessing locations of magma storage and dynamics in the lead-up to volcanic eruptions and crustal growth. A common approach is to utilise minerals that have compositions sensitive to changes in pressure and/or temperature, such as clinopyroxene, which is ubiquitous in mafic to intermediate magmas. However, clinopyroxene thermobarometry may carry significant uncertainty and require an appropriate equilibrium melt composition. In addition, the degree of magma undercooling (ΔT) affects clinopyroxene composition and zoning, with common sector zoning potentially obfuscating thermobarometry results. Here, we use a set of crystallisation experiments on a primitive trachybasalt from Mt. Etna (Italy) at ΔT = 25–233 °C, P = 400–800 MPa, H2O = 0–4 wt % and fO2 = NNO + 2, with clinopyroxene crystals defined by Al-rich zones (prisms and skeletons) and Al-poor zones (hourglass and overgrowths) to assess common equilibrium models and thermobarometric approaches. Under the studied conditions, our data suggest that the commonly applied Fe–Mg exchange (cpx-meltKdFe–Mg) is insensitive to increasing ΔT and may not be a reliable indicator of equilibrium. The combined use of DiHd (CaMgSi2O6 + CaFeSi2O6) and EnFs (Mg2Si2O6 + Fe2Si2O6) models indicate the attainment of equilibrium in both Al-rich and Al-poor zones for almost all investigated ΔT. In contrast, CaTs (CaAl2SiO6) and CaTi (CaTiAl2O6) models reveal substantial deviations from equilibrium with increasing ΔT, particularly in Al-rich zones. We postulate that this reflects slower diffusion of Al and Ti in the melt compared with Ca and Mg and recommend the concurrent application of these four models to evaluate equilibrium between clinopyroxene and melt, particularly for sector-zoned crystals. Thermobarometers calibrated with only isothermal–isobaric experiments closely reproduce experimental P–T at low ΔT, equivalent to natural phenocrysts cores and sector-zoned mantles. Models that also consider decompression experiments are most accurate at high ΔT and are therefore suitable for outermost phenocryst rims and groundmass microlites. Recent machine learning approaches reproduce P–T conditions across all ΔT conditions. Applying our experimental constraints to sector-zoned microphenocrysts and groundmass microlites erupted during the 1974 eccentric eruption at Mt. Etna, we highlight that both hourglass and prism sectors are suitable for thermobarometry, given that equilibrium is sufficiently tested for. The combination of DiHd, EnFs, CaTs and CaTi models identifies compositions closest to equilibrium with the bulk melt composition, and results in smaller differences in P–T calculated for hourglass and prism sectors compared with applying only DiHd and EnFs equilibrium models. This provides a framework to assess crystallisation conditions recorded by sector-zoned clinopyroxene crystals in mafic alkaline settings.
    Description: Published
    Description: egad074
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Experimental Petrology ; Petrology ; Clinopyroxene ; Thermobarometry ; Experimental Petrology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2024-06-13
    Description: Neomphaloidean gastropods are endemic to chemosynthesis-based ecosystems ranging from hot vents to organic falls, and their diversity and evolutionary history remain poorly understood. In the southwestern Pacific, deep-sea hydrothermal vents on back-arc basins and volcanic arcs are found in three geographically secluded regions: a western region around Manus Basin, an eastern region around North Fiji and Lau Basins, and the intermediate Woodlark Basin where active venting was confirmed only recently, on the 2019 R/V L’Atalante CHUBACARC expedition. Although various lineages of neomphaloidean snails have been detected, typically restricted to one of the three regions, some of these have remained without names. Here, we use integrative taxonomy to describe three of these species: the neomphalid Symmetromphalus mithril sp. nov. from Woodlark Basin and the peltospirids Symmetriapelta becki sp. nov. from the eastern region and Symmetriapelta radiata sp. nov. from Woodlark Basin. A combination of shell sculpture and radular characters allow the morphological separation of these new species from their described congeners. A molecular phylogeny reconstructed from 570 bp of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene confirmed the placement of the three new species in their respective genera and the superfamily Neomphaloidea. The finding of these new gastropods, particularly the ones from the Woodlark Basin, provides insights and implications on the historical role of Woodlark as a dispersing centre, in addition to highlighting the uniqueness of the Woodlark faunal community.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: NORP-SORP Workshop on Polar Fresh Water: Sources, Pathways and Impacts of Freshwater in Northern and Southern Polar Oceans and Seas (SPICE-UP) What: Up to 60 participants at a time and more than twice as many registrants in total from 20 nations and across experience levels met to discuss the current status of research on freshwater in both polar regions, future directions, and synergies between the Arctic and Southern Ocean research communities When: 19–21 September 2022 Where: Online
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , notRev
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  • 9
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s1-s10, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉—J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 10
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s271-s321, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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