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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-20
    Beschreibung: The selection of ground motion models, and the representation of their epistemic uncertainty in the form of a logic tree, is one of the fundamental components of probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis. A new ground motion model (GMM) logic tree has been developed for the 2020 European seismic hazard model, which develops upon recently compiled ground motion data sets in Europe. In contrast to previous European seismic hazard models, the new ground model logic tree is built around the scaled backbone concept. Epistemic uncertainties are represented as calibrations to a reference model and aim to characterise the potential distributions of median ground motions resulting from variability in source scaling and attenuation. These scaled backbone logic trees are developed and presented for shallow crustal seismic sources in Europe. Using the new European strong motion flatfile, and capitalising on recent perspectives in ground motion modelling in the scientific literature, a general and transferable procedure is presented for the construction of a backbone model and the regionalisation of epistemic uncertainty. This innovative approach forms a general framework for revising and updating the GMM logic tree at national and European scale as new strong motion data emerge in the future.
    Beschreibung: Horizon 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601
    Schlagwort(e): ddc:551.22 ; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment ; Ground motion models ; Epistemic uncertainty ; Regionalisation
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: doc-type:article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-20
    Beschreibung: Regions of low seismicity present a particular challenge for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis when identifying suitable ground motion models (GMMs) and quantifying their epistemic uncertainty. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model adopts a scaled backbone approach to characterise this uncertainty for shallow seismicity in Europe, incorporating region-to-region source and attenuation variability based on European strong motion data. This approach, however, may not be suited to stable cratonic region of northeastern Europe (encompassing Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries), where exploration of various global geophysical datasets reveals that its crustal properties are distinctly different from the rest of Europe, and are instead more closely represented by those of the Central and Eastern United States. Building upon the suite of models developed by the recent NGA East project, we construct a new scaled backbone ground motion model and calibrate its corresponding epistemic uncertainties. The resulting logic tree is shown to provide comparable hazard outcomes to the epistemic uncertainty modelling strategy adopted for the Eastern United States, despite the different approaches taken. Comparison with previous GMM selections for northeastern Europe, however, highlights key differences in short period accelerations resulting from new assumptions regarding the characteristics of the reference rock and its influence on site amplification.
    Beschreibung: Horizon 2020 Framework Programme http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661
    Beschreibung: Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum - GFZ (4217)
    Schlagwort(e): ddc:551.22 ; Ground motion models ; Stable craton ; Regionalisation ; Epistemic uncertainty ; Europe
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: doc-type:article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-20
    Beschreibung: We perform a spectral decomposition of the Fourier amplitude spectra disseminated along with the Engineering Strong Motion (ESM) flat file for Europe and Middle East. We apply a non-parametric inversion schema to isolate source, propagation and site effects, introducing a regionalization for the attenuation model into three domains. The obtained propagation and source components of the model are parametrized in terms of geometrical spreading, quality factor, seismic moment, and corner frequency assuming a ω2 source model. The non-parametric spectral attenuation values show a faster decay for earthquakes in Italy than in the other regions. Once described in terms of geometrical spreading and frequency-dependent quality factor, slopes and breakpoint locations of the piece-wise linear model for the geometrical spreading show regional variations, confirming that the non-parametric models capture the effects of crustal heterogeneities and differences in the anelastic attenuation. Since they are derived in the framework of a single inversion, the source spectra of the largest events which have occurred in Europe in the last decades can be directly compared and the scaling of the extracted source parameters evaluated. The Brune stress drop varies over about 2 orders of magnitude (the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles of the ∆σ distribution are 0.76, 2.94, and 13.07 MPa, respectively), with large events having larger stress drops. In particular, the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles for M 〉 5.5 are 2.87, 6.02, and 23.5 MPa, respectively whereas, for M 〈 5.5, the same percentiles are 0.73, 2.84, and 12.43 MPa. If compared to the residual distributions associated to a ground motion prediction equation previously derived using the same Fourier amplitude spectra, the source parameter and the empirical site amplification effects correlate well with the inter-event and inter-station residuals, respectively. Finally, we calibrated both non-parametric and parametric attenuation models for estimating the stress drop from the ratio between Arias intensity and significant duration. The results confirm that computing the Arias stress drop is a suitable approach for complementing the seismic moment with information controlling the source radiation at high frequencies for rapid response applications.
    Beschreibung: https://esm.mi.ingv.it//flatfile-2018/
    Schlagwort(e): ddc:551.22 ; Ground motion models ; Spectral decomposition ; Arias intensity ; Source parameters
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: doc-type:article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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