ALBERT

Description: This report was prepared by the Wuppertal Institute in cooperation with the German Economic Institute as part of the SCI4climate.NRW project. The report aims to shed light on the possible phenomenon that the availability and costs of "green" energy sources may become a relevant location factor for basic materials produced in a climate-neutral manner in the future. For this purpose, we introduce the term "Renewables Pull". We define Renewables Pull as the initially hypothetical phenomenon of a shift of industrial production from one region to another as a result of different marginal costs of renewable energies (or of secondary energy sources or feedstocks based on renewable energies). Shifts in industrial production in the sense of Renewables Pull can in principle be caused by differences in the stringency of climate policies in different countries, as in the case of Carbon Leakage. Unlike Carbon Leakage, however, Renewables Pull can also occur if similarly ambitious climate policies are implemented in different countries. This is because Renewables Pull is primarily determined by differences in the costs and availability of renewable energies. In addition, Renewables Pull can also be triggered by cost reductions of renewable energies and by changing preferences on the demand side towards climate-friendly products. Another important difference to Carbon Leakage is that the Renewables Pull effect does not necessarily counteract climate policy. Similar to Carbon Leakage, it is to be expected that Renewables Pull could become relevant primarily for very energy-intensive products in basic materials industries. In these sectors (e.g. in the steel or chemical industry), there is also the possibility that relocations of specific energy-intensive parts of the production process could trigger domino effects. As a result, large parts of the value chains previously existing in a country or region could also be subjected to an (indirect) Renewables Pull effect. For the federal state of NRW, in which the basic materials industry plays an important role, the possible emergence of Renewables Pull is associated with significant challenges as climate policy in Germany, the EU and also worldwide is expected to become more ambitious in the future. This report aims to enable and initiate a deeper analysis of the potential future developments and challenges associated with the Renewables Pull effect. Thus, in the final chapter of the report, several research questions are formulated that can be answered in the further course of the SCI4climate.NRW project as well as in other research projects.

Description: Die vorliegende Darstellung vergleicht fünf ausgewählte aktuelle Klimaschutzszenarien für Deutschland in Hinblick auf zentrale Entwicklungen im Energiesystem bis Mitte des Jahrhunderts. Die fünf Szenarien sind zwischen April und Oktober 2021 erschienen und beschreiben unterschiedliche Pfade, wie Klimaneutralität in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2045 bzw. 2050 erreicht werden könnte. Die Szenarien wurden von verschiedenen Organisationen in Auftrag gegeben und von unterschiedlichen wissenschaftlichen Instituten bzw. Beratungsunternehmen erarbeitet. Im vorliegenden Vergleich werden verschiedene Kenngrößen des Energiesystems auf Energieangebots- sowie Energienachfrageseite betrachtet. Die Gegenüberstellung der jeweiligen Entwicklungen in den Szenarien soll aufzeigen, in welchen Bereichen die Studien auf dem Weg zur Klimaneutralität ähnliche Entwicklungen vorsehen und in welchen Bereichen es derzeit noch deutlich abweichende Vorstellungen über die genaue Ausgestaltung der Energiesystemtransformation gibt.

Description: A clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies and a structured vision are prerequisites for fostering and steering a transition to a fully renewables-based energy system. To facilitate such understanding, a phase model for the renewable energy transition in MENA countries has been developed and applied to the case of Palestine. It is designed to support the strategy development and governance of the energy transition and to serve as a guide for decision-makers. The transition towards renewable energies is still at a very early stage in Palestine. The long-standing political conflict between Palestine and Israel has prevented the large-scale deployment of renewable energy due to land restrictions. Palestine's political instability, its geographically fragmented territories, and its high dependence on Israel's imports are the most pressing concerns for Palestine’s electricity sector. At the operational level, particularly the transmission and distribution infrastructure need to be better interconnected, renewed and expanded to accommodate larger volumes of renewable electricity and at the same time improve efficiency. The modelled demand development shows that Palestine will most likely have to continue importing electricity even if the potential of renewable energy is fully exploited. This underlines the importance of sustainable energy partnerships for Palestine. The results of the analysis along the transition phase model towards 100% renewable energy are intended to stimulate and support the discussion on Palestine's future energy system by providing an overarching guiding vision for the energy transition and the development of appropriate policies.