ALBERT

Description: We present a workflow to estimate geostatistical aquifer parameters from pumping test data using the Python package welltestpy. The procedure of pumping test analysis is exemplified for two data sets from the Horkheimer Insel site and from the Lauswiesen site, Germany. The analysis is based on a semi‐analytical drawdown solution from the upscaling approach Radial Coarse Graining, which enables to infer log‐transmissivity variance and horizontal correlation length, beside mean transmissivity, and storativity, from pumping test data. We estimate these parameters of aquifer heterogeneity from type‐curve analysis and determine their sensitivity. This procedure, implemented in welltestpy, is a template for analyzing any pumping test. It goes beyond the possibilities of standard methods, for example, based on Theis' equation, which are limited to mean transmissivity and storativity. A sensitivity study showed the impact of observation well positions on the parameter estimation quality. The insights of this study help to optimize future test setups for geostatistical aquifer analysis and provides guidance for investigating pumping tests with regard to aquifer statistics using the open‐source software package welltestpy.

Description: Article impact statement: We present a workflow to infer parameters of subsurface heterogeneity from pumping test data exemplified at two sites using welltestpy.

Description: German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007636

Description: In designed experiments, different sources of variability and an adequate scale of measurement need to be considered, but not all approaches in common usage are equally valid. In order to elucidate the importance of sources of variability and choice of scale, we conducted an experiment where the effects of biochar and slurry applications on soil properties related to soil fertility were studied for different designs: (a) for a field‐scale sampling design with either a model soil (without natural variability) as an internal control or with composited soils, (b) for a design with a focus on amendment variabilities, and (c) for three individual field‐scale designs with true field replication and a combined analysis representative of the population of loess‐derived soils. Three silty loam sites in Germany were sampled and the soil macroaggregates were crushed. For each design, six treatments (0, 0.15 and 0.30 g slurry‐N kg−1 with and without 30 g biochar kg−1) were applied before incubating the units under constant soil moisture conditions for 78 days. CO2 fluxes were monitored and soils were analysed for macroaggregate yields and associated organic carbon (C). Mixed‐effects models were used to describe the effects. For all soil properties, results for the loess sites differed with respect to significant contributions of fixed effects for at least one site, suggesting the need for a general inclusion of different sites. Analysis using a multilevel model allowed generalizations for loess soils to be made and showed that site:slurry:biochar and site:slurry interactions were not negligible for macroaggregate yields. The use of a model soil as an internal control enabled observation of variabilities other than those related to soils or amendments. Experiments incorporating natural variability in soils or amendments resulted in partially different outcomes, indicating the need to include all important sources of variability. Highlights Effects of biochar and slurry applications were studied for different designs and mixed‐effects models were used to describe the effects. Including an internal control allowed observation of, e.g., methodological and analytical variabilities. The results suggested the need for a general inclusion of different sites. Analysis using a multilevel model allowed generalizations for loess soils. The results indicated the need to include all important sources of variability.

Description: Temperate forest soils are often considered as an important sink for atmospheric carbon (C), thereby buffering anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, the effect of tree species composition on the magnitude of this sink is unclear. We resampled a tree species common garden experiment (six sites) a decade after initial sampling to evaluate whether forest floor (FF) and topsoil organic carbon (Corg) and total nitrogen (Nt) stocks changed in dependence of tree species (Norway spruce—Picea abies L., European beech—Fagus sylvatica L., pedunculate oak—Quercus robur L., sycamore maple—Acer pseudoplatanus L., European ash—Fraxinus excelsior L. and small‐leaved lime—Tilia cordata L.). Two groups of species were identified in terms of Corg and Nt distribution: (1) Spruce with high Corg and Nt stocks in the FF developed as a mor humus layer which tended to have smaller Corg and Nt stocks and a wider Corg:Nt ratio in the mineral topsoil, and (2) the broadleaved species, of which ash and maple distinguished most clearly from spruce by very low Corg and Nt stocks in the FF developed as mull humus layer, had greater Corg and Nt stocks, and narrow Corg:Nt ratios in the mineral topsoil. Over 11 years, FF Corg and Nt stocks increased most under spruce, while small decreases in bulk mineral soil (esp. in 0–15 cm and 0–30 cm depth) Corg and Nt stocks dominated irrespective of species. Observed decadal changes were associated with site‐related and tree species‐mediated soil properties in a way that hinted towards short‐term accumulation and mineralisation dynamics of easily available organic substances. We found no indication for Corg stabilisation. However, results indicated increasing Nt stabilisation with increasing biomass of burrowing earthworms, which were highest under ash, lime and maple and lowest under spruce. Highlights We studied if tree species differences in topsoil Corg and Nt stocks substantiate after a decade. The study is unique in its repeated soil sampling in a multisite common garden experiment. Forest floors increased under spruce, but topsoil stocks decreased irrespective of species. Changes were of short‐term nature. Nitrogen was most stable under arbuscular mycorrhizal species.

Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaff (DFG)

Description: The late Pleistocene Yedoma Ice Complex is an ice-rich and organic-bearing type of permafrost deposit widely distributed across Beringia and is assumed to be especially prone to deep degradation with warming temperature, which is a potential tipping point of the climate system. To better understand Yedoma formation, its local characteristics, and its regional sedimentological composition, we compiled the grain-size distributions (GSDs) of 771 samples from 23 Yedoma locations across the Arctic; samples from sites located close together were pooled to form 17 study sites. In addition, we studied 160 samples from three non-Yedoma ice-wedge polygon and floodplain sites for the comparison of Yedoma samples with Holocene depositional environments. The multimodal GSDs indicate that a variety of sediment production, transport, and depositional processes were involved in Yedoma formation. To disentangle these processes, a robust endmember modeling analysis (rEMMA) was performed. Nine robust grain-size endmembers (rEMs) characterize Yedoma deposits across Beringia. The study sites of Yedoma deposits were finally classified using cluster analysis. The resulting four clusters consisted of two to five sites that are distributed randomly across northeastern Siberia and Alaska, suggesting that the differences are associated with rather local conditions. In contrast to prior studies suggesting a largely aeolian contribution to Yedoma sedimentation, the wide range of rEMs indicates that aeolian sedimentation processes cannot explain the entire variability found in GSDs of Yedoma deposits. Instead, Yedoma sedimentation is controlled by local conditions such as source rocks and weathering processes, nearby paleotopography, and diverse sediment transport processes. Our findings support the hypothesis of a polygenetic Yedoma origin involving alluvial, fluvial, and niveo-aeolian transport; accumulation in ponding waters; and in situ frost weathering as well as postdepositional processes of solifluction, cryoturbation, and pedogenesis. The characteristic rEM composition of the Yedoma clusters will help to improve how grain-size-dependent parameters in permafrost models and soil carbon budgets are considered. Our results show the characteristic properties of ice-rich Yedoma deposits in the terrestrial Arctic. Characterizing and quantifying site-specific past depositional processes is crucial for elucidating and understanding the trajectories of this unique kind of ice-rich permafrost in a warmer future.

Description: The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period during which atmospheric CO2 levels were similar to recent historical values (∼400 ppm). Several proxy reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene show highly reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating an El Niño-like mean state. However, past modelling studies do not show these highly reduced gradients. Efforts to understand mid-Pliocene climate dynamics have led to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Results from the first phase (PlioMIP1) showed clear El Niño variability (albeit significantly reduced) and did not show the greatly reduced time-mean zonal SST gradient suggested by some of the proxies. In this work, we study El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, which consists of additional global coupled climate models and updated boundary conditions compared to PlioMIP1. We quantify ENSO amplitude, period, spatial structure and “flavour”, as well as the tropical Pacific annual mean state in mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial simulations. Results show a reduced ENSO amplitude in the model-ensemble mean (−24 %) with respect to the pre-industrial, with 15 out of 17 individual models showing such a reduction. Furthermore, the spectral power of this variability considerably decreases in the 3–4-year band. The spatial structure of the dominant empirical orthogonal function shows no particular change in the patterns of tropical Pacific variability in the model-ensemble mean, compared to the pre-industrial. Although the time-mean zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific decreases for 14 out of 17 models (0.2 ∘C reduction in the ensemble mean), there does not seem to be a correlation with the decrease in ENSO amplitude. The models showing the most “El Niño-like” mean state changes show a similar ENSO amplitude to that in the pre-industrial reference, while models showing more “La Niña-like” mean state changes generally show a large reduction in ENSO variability. The PlioMIP2 results show a reasonable agreement with both time-mean proxies indicating a reduced zonal SST gradient and reconstructions indicating a reduced, or similar, ENSO variability.

Description: The mid-Pliocene (∼3 Ma) is one of the most recent warm periods with high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and resulting high temperatures, and it is often cited as an analog for near-term future climate change. Here, we apply a moisture budget analysis to investigate the response of the large-scale hydrological cycle at low latitudes within a 13-model ensemble from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The results show that increased atmospheric moisture content within the mid-Pliocene ensemble (due to the thermodynamic effect) results in wetter conditions over the deep tropics, i.e., the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Maritime Continent, and drier conditions over the subtropics. Note that the dynamic effect plays a more important role than the thermodynamic effect in regional precipitation minus evaporation (PmE) changes (i.e., northward ITCZ shift and wetter northern Indian Ocean). The thermodynamic effect is offset to some extent by a dynamic effect involving a northward shift of the Hadley circulation that dries the deep tropics and moistens the subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., the subtropical Pacific). From the perspective of Earth's energy budget, the enhanced southward cross-equatorial atmospheric transport (0.22 PW), induced by the hemispheric asymmetries of the atmospheric energy, favors an approximately 1∘ northward shift of the ITCZ. The shift of the ITCZ reorganizes atmospheric circulation, favoring a northward shift of the Hadley circulation. In addition, the Walker circulation consistently shifts westward within PlioMIP2 models, leading to wetter conditions over the northern Indian Ocean. The PlioMIP2 ensemble highlights that an imbalance of interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate.

Description: The Italian earthquake waveform data are collected here in a dataset suited for machine learning analysis (ML) applications. The dataset consists of nearly 1.2 million three-component (3C) waveform traces from about 50 000 earthquakes and more than 130 000 noise 3C waveform traces, for a total of about 43 000 h of data and an average of 21 3C traces provided per event. The earthquake list is based on the Italian Seismic Bulletin (http://terremoti.ingv.it/bsi, last access: 15 February 2020​​​​​​​) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia between January 2005 and January 2020, and it includes events in the magnitude range between 0.0 and 6.5. The waveform data have been recorded primarily by the Italian National Seismic Network (network code IV) and include both weak- (HH, EH channels) and strong-motion (HN channels) recordings. All the waveform traces have a length of 120 s, are sampled at 100 Hz, and are provided both in counts and ground motion physical units after deconvolution of the instrument transfer functions. The waveform dataset is accompanied by metadata consisting of more than 100 parameters providing comprehensive information on the earthquake source, the recording stations, the trace features, and other derived quantities. This rich set of metadata allows the users to target the data selection for their own purposes. Much of these metadata can be used as labels in ML analysis or for other studies. The dataset, assembled in HDF5 format, is available at http://doi.org/10.13127/instance (Michelini et al., 2021).

Description: Published

Description: 5509–5544

Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Little research attention has been given to validating clusters obtained from the groundwater geochemistry of the waterworks' capture zone with a prevailing lake‐groundwater exchange. To address this knowledge gap, we proposed a new scheme whereby Gaussian finite mixture modeling (GFMM) and Spike‐and‐Slab Bayesian (SSB) algorithms were utilized to cluster the groundwater geochemistry while quantifying the probability of the resulting cluster membership against each other. We applied GFMM and SSB to 13 geochemical parameters collected during different sampling periods at 13 observation points across the Barnim Highlands plateau located in the northeast of Berlin, Germany; this included 10 observation wells, two lakes, and a gallery of drinking production wells. The cluster analysis of GFMM yielded nine clusters, either with a probability ≥0.8, while the SSB produced three hierarchical clusters with a probability of cluster membership varying from 〈0.2 to 〉0.8. The findings demonstrated that the clustering results of GFMM were in good agreement with the classification as per the principal component analysis and Piper diagram. By superimposing the parameter clustering onto the observation clustering, we could identify discrepancies that exist among the parameters of a certain cluster. This enables the identification of different factors that may control the geochemistry of a certain cluster, although parameters of that cluster share a strong similarity. The GFMM results have shown that from 2002, there has been active groundwater inflow from the lakes towards the capture zone. This means that it is necessary to adopt appropriate measures to reverse the inflow towards the lakes.

Description: Article impact statement: The probability of cluster membership quantified using an algorithm should be validated against another probabilistic‐based classifier.

Description: Federal Ministry of Education and Research http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347

Description: Copper (Cu) is an essential element for plants and microorganisms and at larger concentrations a toxic pollutant. A number of factors controlling Cu dynamics have been reported, but information on quantitative relationships is scarce. We aimed to (i) quantitatively describe and predict soil Cu concentrations (CuAR) in aqua regia considering site‐specific effects and effects of pH, soil organic carbon (SOC) and cation exchange capacity (CEC), and (ii) study the suitability of mixed‐effects modelling and rule‐based models for the analysis of long‐term soil monitoring data. Thirteen uncontaminated long‐term monitoring soil profiles in southern Germany were analysed. Since there was no measurable trend of increasing CuAR concentrations with time in the respective depth ranges of the sites, data from different sampling dates were combined and horizon‐specific regression analyses including model simplifications were carried out for 10 horizons. Fixed‐ and mixed‐effects models with the site as a random effect were useful for the different horizons and significant contributions (either of main effects or interactions) of SOC, CEC and pH were present for 9, 8 and 7 horizons, respectively. Horizon‐specific rule‐based cubist models described the CuAR data similarly well. Validations of cubist models and mixed‐effects models for the CuAR concentrations in A horizons were successful for the given population after random splitting into calibration and validation samples, but not after independent validations with random splitting according to sites. Overall, site, CEC, SOC and pH provide important information for a description of CuAR concentrations using the different regression approaches. Highlights: Information on quantitative relationships for factors controlling Cu dynamics is scarce. Site, CEC, SOC and pH provide important information for a description of Cu concentrations. Validations of cubist models and mixed‐effects models for A horizons were successful for a closed population of sites.

Description: Bavarian State Ministry of the Environment and Consumer Protection http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010219

Description: Ministry of Agriculture and Environment Mecklenburg‐Western Pomerania