ALBERT

Description: in a recent publication von Brandt (1) gives a survey of all determinations of the calcium content of Baltic water hitherto published. He records in all 39 analyses made during the last century, which give us an idea of the order of magnitude of the calcium concentration; they cannot, however, serve for comparative purposes as in many cases chlorine determinations on the same water samples are lacking. Neither have we any clue for judging the accuracy of these analyses, the latest of which date from 1884. Fifty years later, in 1935, Za rin s and O z o 1 ins (8) published an extensive investi­gation of the water in the Bay of Riga and in the Baltic off the Latvian coast, their most westerly station nearly coinciding with the Finnish station F81 (Lat. 57° 22'N., Long. 19°57'E.) above the central depression of the Baltic. Their material comprised about 70 calcium analyses on water from all depths. Finally v o n B r a n d t in the above-mentioned paper publishes nearly 300 analyses of surface water collected in 1935 and 1936 during several voyages from Pillau to Helsingfors and back, and along the German coast as far as Kiel and back. The present material comprises analyses of only 48 samples of surface and bottom water collected during the summer cruise, in July 1935, of the s.s. "Nautilus" from the Gulf of Finland, the Gulf of Bothnia, and the northern half of the Baltic proper. In spite of the smaller number of samples this material is more comprehensive than the two preceding investigations in so far as it covers a greater area of the sea. I t was originally meant as a survey of the calcium content in these parts of the Baltic, but the surprisingly simple relationships between calcium content and chlorinity which it revealed, give the results far more scope than was expected.

Description: In this article, the concepts and background of regional climate modeling of the future Baltic Sea are summarized and state-of-the-art projections, climate change impact studies, and challenges are discussed. The focus is on projected oceanographic changes in future climate. However, as these changes may have a significant impact on biogeochemical cycling, nutrient load scenario simulations in future climates are briefly discussed as well. The Baltic Sea is special compared to other coastal seas as it is a tideless, semi-enclosed sea with large freshwater and nutrient supply from a partly heavily populated catchment area and a long response time of about 30 years, and as it is, in the early 21st century, warming faster than any other coastal sea in the world. Hence, policymakers request the development of nutrient load abatement strategies in future climate. For this purpose, large ensembles of coupled climate–environmental scenario simulations based upon high-resolution circulation models were developed to estimate changes in water temperature, salinity, sea-ice cover, sea level, oxygen, nutrient, and phytoplankton concentrations, and water transparency, together with uncertainty ranges. Uncertainties in scenario simulations of the Baltic Sea are considerable. Sources of uncertainties are global and regional climate model biases, natural variability, and unknown greenhouse gas emission and nutrient load scenarios. Unknown early 21st-century and future bioavailable nutrient loads from land and atmosphere and the experimental setup of the dynamical downscaling technique are perhaps the largest sources of uncertainties for marine biogeochemistry projections. The high uncertainties might potentially be reducible through investments in new multi-model ensemble simulations that are built on better experimental setups, improved models, and more plausible nutrient loads. The development of community models for the Baltic Sea region with improved performance and common coordinated experiments of scenario simulations is recommended.