ALBERT

Notes: This article examines a case of fraud – the Maxwell case – to assess the implications for corporate governance in Britain. The analysis of the case shows how Robert Maxwell was able to avoid the established network of regulations and controls. The authors then make a number of recommendations which suggest how this kind of fraud may be prevented in the future.

Notes: This paper presents empirical and theoretical analysis of the enactment of New Public Management (NPM) within the UK police service. It draws on empirical material gathered in a two-year study that explores the ways in which individual policing professionals have responded to, and received, the NPM discourse. Theoretically informed by a discursive approach to organizational analysis, the paper focuses on the new subject positions promoted within NPM that serve to challenge traditional understandings of policing organization and identities. The paper examines the implications of this for policies that promote community orientated policing (COP) and increased inter-agency partnership. The paper argues that the promotion of a more progressive form of policing, based on community orientation and equality principles, may struggle to gain legitimacy within the current performance regime that legitimizes a competitive masculine subjectivity, with its emphasis on crime fighting.

Notes: Greater fiscal transparency is seen by its advocates as a means of improving economic governance arrangements in ways which, by promoting fiscal stability, will in turn improve the functioning of the government sector and facilitate improvements in the economic environment for the private sector. ‘Fiscal transparency’ is much acclaimed by policy-makers, not only in the UK Treasury but also by the IMF and OECD. Fiscal transparency can have substance or can just be voguish incantation. This article explores the meaning of fiscal transparency, by examining its structure and evaluating criteria for assessing the degree of fiscal transparency attached to particular sets of circumstances. It explores the link between transparency and accountability, developing the distinction between event and process transparency. Consideration is given to the trade-off between the value of sunlight (to employ an analogy) and the danger of over-exposure. The performance of the United Kingdom against emerging international best practice is examined, with regard to both public expenditure and taxation. By international standards, UK fiscal transparency is high. Nevertheless, there is a major gap between UK rhetoric and practice, indicating a  divergence between nominal and effective transparency. This is evidenced by: frequent changes in public expenditure definitions; the non-publication of important analyses; the location of certain liabilities ‘off-balance sheet’; and a lack of candour about tax policy.

Notes: How are government policy commitments converted into legislation and what happens in the conversion? The role of civil servants in preparing legislation is far more important than is generally assumed. By looking at the work of four recent bill  teams in Britain – teams of civil servants given the task of developing Acts of Parliament – their crucial roles in initiating policies, placing them on the political agenda (even helping secure their place in a party manifesto), developing them, making sure they pass through parliament and enacting them once they have reached the statute books are assessed. The article explores the composition and working methods of bill teams. These teams work with considerable autonomy in developing legislation, but it cannot be assumed that they operate outside ministerial control. Teams see themselves as reflecting the priorities of the government in general and their ministers in particular. Yet ministers typically know relatively little about the law they are bringing in until they receive the submissions and briefings from their officials. Perhaps the biggest danger for democracy is not a civil service putting forward proposals which a minister feels forced to accept, but rather that ministers do not notice or fully appreciate what is being proposed in their name despite having the political authority to change it and a civil service which bends over backwards to consult and accommodate them.

Notes: This article will explore the proposition that cabinet government is dead by examining the different ways in which cabinet government is conceptualized and by suggesting that the lack of precision in the debates has undermined much of the criticism. It will seek to draw the strands of research together in a way that can emphasize how cabinet government has evolved while remaining at the core of government. The article will draw evidence from three countries, Australia, Canada and Britain, in each of which, despite the common heritage, cabinet has evolved in different ways.

Notes: Since the 1990s there has been a long-standing concern in government towards public sector accountability, management, efficiency and service delivery. A number of studies have attempted to analyse the multitude of individual changes and their manifestations through analyses based on a variety of institutional, policy and governmental distinctions. This paper attempts to specify the changes with particular reference to planning, and to consider the evolution of the public service ethic in planning towards more openness, scrutiny, transparency and efficiency with particular reference to the changing ethos of the professional employee. We first explore the  main impacts upon local government, the public service ethic and professional planning as a consequence of the Modernization agenda and freedoms and flexibilities initiative. We then look at how such changes have impacted upon the ethos and values in public service and planning. We draw on some evidence of Ombudsman cases to highlight issues of professional values in planning practice over the past decade before finally drawing these strands together in some conclusions. Our principal findings indicate that the much-trumpeted decline of services and standards may not have been as apparent as is sometimes portrayed and that internal professional attitudes and values towards the external changes may not have significantly altered over the same period.

Notes: Inspired by New Public Management, many countries have changed their central public apparatus from an integrated to a more segregated structural model. A central element in this process is structural devolution and the establishment of new or reorganized state-owned companies with increased business autonomy and new formal control systems. This paper focuses on how this development, as exemplified by the case of Norway, is affecting the role of central executive political and administrative leaders. The study, based on elite interviews, shows that corporatization has made the role of central leaders more complex and ambiguous and undermined traditional political control. We interpret this development from a transformative perspective, underlining how structural devolution is filtered through the dynamic context of environmental pressure and internal structural and cultural factors; in addition, experiences from New Zealand are used to contrast the Norwegian case.

Notes: Public management reforms at the local (community) and regional (canton) level in Switzerland almost all embrace elements of the new public management. In addition, in Switzerland, the merging of small communities as well as new developments such as electronic government are becoming apparent. The new public management model has been adapted for Swiss needs according to the perception of decision makers on problems that require solution in a Swiss context. NPM has developed, therefore, into rather different models in practice, aimed at the solution of these diverse problems. Foreign examples, such as the Dutch Tilburg Model and the German Neues Steuerungsmodell, played a major role at the start of this process, but have continuously lost their influence as actual models to be emulated. The most outstanding peculiarities of the Swiss reforms are an early and subsequent outcome focus together with the strong influence of direct democracy.

Notes: This article, part of a sequence of comparative articles on local government reforms in The Netherlands, Switzerland and Germany, describes and analyses the recent public management reforms at the local level of Germany. After an overview about the constitutional framework of local self government and the reform waves of the last decades, the paper concentrates on the ‘new steering model’ as the German variant of NPM. The article shows the short history of this reform movement, describes the main elements of the reform concept and explains some of the causes, forces and actors of implementation. It goes on to discuss the present status of implementation, explains several shortcomings of the concept, and presents the – very limited – empirical evidence of achieved results. Finally, the paper draws some conclusions from a comparative view on the similarities and differences of local management reforms in Germany and the two other countries.

Notes: Books reviewed in this article:B. Guy Peters and Jon Pierre (eds.), Politicians, bureaucrats and administrative reformHugh Atkinson and Stuart Wilks-Heeg, Local government from Thatcher to Blair: the politics of creative autonomyAlex Wright (ed.), Scotland: the challenge of devolutionChristopher Hood, Henry Rothstein and Robert Baldwin, The government of risk: understanding risk regulation regimesAlison Young, The politics of regulation: privatized utilities in Britain

Notes: The United States is commonly referred to as the last global superpower, exercising unrivalled political, economic, military and social influence. Yet, paradoxically, unlike any other nation, Americans were – and remain – radically antistatist. Until roughly the twentieth century the United States did not want, need, nor create a powerful administrative state to govern itself, let alone others abroad. This essay explores that peculiar paradox, namely how Americans govern as the last global superpower today, yet retain an inherently fierce hostility to government. The thesis that is developed argues that it is a deep–rooted reformist faith which ultimately shapes US statecraft as a unique style of reformcraft, with both benign and not–sobenign consequences.

Notes: To understand governance, we ask who is telling the story from within which tradition. We argue there is no essentialist notion of governance but at least four conceptions each rooted in a distinctive tradition. The first section of the paper describes the relevant traditions: Tory, Liberal, Whig and Socialist. The second section describes the different notions of governance associated with each tradition; intermediate institutions, marketizing public services, reinventing the constitution and trust and negotiation. We explain these distinct conceptions of governance as responses to the dilemmas of inflation and state overload. In the conclusion, we summarize how and why traditions change, concluding, there is no such thing as governance, but only the differing constructions of the several traditions.

Notes: The article explores the evolution of competing views on state, administration and governance in Germany from an historical perspective, with an emphasis on the last five decades. To understand the governance discourse in Germany one has to start from different notions of the state. The first part therefore offers a brief, somewhat polemic, overview about different state traditions in Germany in the twentieth and twenty–first centuries. The second part looks at how discourses about the proper role, the appropriate structures and processes of the public sector and its interactions with its environment have changed during the history of the Federal Republic. The analytic focus is on the different narratives about administrative policies, understood as the various scenarios, assumptions and arguments on which competing policy–suggestions for the public sector have been based. The article argues that it is not sufficient to interpret the ups and downs of different discourses and Leitbilder as more or less erratic, post–modern fashions and fads. Instead, the line up of the central catch–phrases, from democratic via active and lean to the activating state, reflect learning processes, driven above all by the political competition creating a continuous demand for ‘better’, more appropriate narratives to guide and explain current policies.

Notes: This article explores the basic traditions of governance in contemporary France and the narratives of public sector reform associated with them. It should be stressed right from the outset that this article does not aim to describe the set of public sector reforms that have been implemented in France in the last ten years or so. Instead, the aim is to demonstrate the similarities and differences between the narratives of the left and the right with regard to these reforms and to show how these narratives help to explain the types of reform that have been enacted. The basic argument is that there is a certain commonality to both the left and the right with regard to their narratives of public sector reform. At the same time, though, there are differences of emphasis both within each tradition and between the two main traditions themselves. Except where indicated, all translations are the author's own.

Notes: This article revisits the country case studies and seeks to answer two questions. What are the strengths and weaknesses of an interpretive approach? What lessons can we draw from our analysis of public sector reform? To assess an interpretive approach, we discuss: the issues raised in identifying beliefs; the meaning of explanation; how to select traditions; the shift from prediction to informed conjecture and policy advice as storytelling. To assess the lessons, we outline our preferred story of public sector reform. We seek to show that an interpretive approach produces insights for students of public administration. We argue it remains feasible to give policy advice to public sector managers by telling them stories and providing rules of thumb (proverbs) to guide managerial practices.

Notes: Compared to other continental European countries, especially Germany and Switzerland, which have experimented with New Public Management (NPM) in local government, The Netherlands has been relatively quick in following trends stemming from Anglo-Saxon management thinking, but also relatively quick in redressing its course. The rise of the New Public Management in Dutch local government has been relatively swift and strong but also relatively superficial and non-committal. The dominant picture that emerges is one of an administrative system that, while responsive to the latest trends, is also surprisingly stable. Management reforms, forcefully advocated in the 1980s, were decisively revised and redressed in the 1990s, with the city of Tilburg, celebrated for its ‘Tilburg Model’, a case in point. The Werdegang of NPM (that is, how things developed) in Dutch local government, detailed in this article, can be understood only partially as a result of changing economic and budgetary constraints. The article shows that endogenous features of the Dutch politico-administrative system – more specifically: the compact, dense and decentralized pattern of the intergovernmental network, the administrative tradition of pragmatism, dynamic conservatism and the comparatively technocratic character of local government – have also strongly influenced the reception, effect and correction of NPM in Dutch local government.

Notes: We argue that the Kearney/Foreign Policy (KFP) index of globalisation is constructed by making some problematic assumptions about the measurement, normalisation and weighting of the variables included in the index. We propose alternative measurement, normalisation and weighting rules, and using these rules, recalculate the ranking of the fifty countries, using the original KFP data. Specifically, we use, in various combinations: (i) variables ‘adjusted’ for geographical characteristics of countries; (ii) statistically optimal weights obtained by principal components analysis; (iii) a normalisation rule that treats different years of observations separately. We find that the country rankings change significantly when adjusted variables are used, indicating that the original KFP index is partially measuring geographical differences between countries.

Notes: The integration of the former communist countries of central and eastern Europe into the European Union creates a dilemma for the EU's regional policy. The EU's expenditure on regional policy (its ‘active’ regional policy) has been guided by political reactions to deepening or enlarging the EU, not by a rational strategy for regional policy. In contrast, the strong EU instrument of state aid control, developed for competition policy (its ‘reactive’ regional policy) has been relatively successful in avoiding a national race of regional subsidies among the member states. We show that a shift from active regional policy to reactive, competition-oriented, regional policies is the preferred way for the established member states to handle the challenge of enlargement. At the same time, however, this shift is politically difficult for the accession countries to accept, despite the fact that this shift might prove better for them economically. This regional policy dilemma is one of the major obstacles for the full integration of the accession countries into the EU.

Notes: Recent research has focused on the short- to medium-term implications of trade reforms for the labour market outcomes and poverty in poor economies. This article summarises the evidence on the short-term consequences of the Colombian trade reform initiated in 1985 for industry employment and industry wages. Although the reform reduced manufacturing tariffs on average by 40 percentage points from 1984 to 1994, tariff declines were not significantly associated with labour reallocation across sectors. The reform, however, was associated with bigger declines in relative industry wages in sectors that experienced bigger tariff cuts. This evidence is in line with the predictions of short- to medium-run models of trade in which labour is not mobile across sectors. It is also consistent with the predictions of models where imperfectly competitive industries share rents with workers and trade reduces the firms’ profit margins and thus workers’ rents.

Notes: This paper examines individual trade policy preferences across 17 countries in Latin America. The focus is on whether skilled or unskilled workers are more likely to support liberalised trade and on whether country characteristics, such as factor endowments, alter the preferences of skilled and unskilled workers. Based on the standard Heckscher-Ohlin model and the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, wage inequality in developing countries will decrease under free trade and unskilled workers will benefit. We find that on average skilled workers are more likely than unskilled workers to support free trade in Latin American countries. Separate country regressions reveal that this pattern is only statistically significant in 8 out of 17 Latin American countries. However, there are no countries in our sample in which unskilled workers are statistically more likely to support free trade than skilled workers, not even in the lowest skill-endowed country in the sample. We also find that people from Latin American countries with higher GDP, faster growth, more cropland and a longer period of time since reform were more likely on average to support free trade.

Notes: This paper studies the experience of Latin America (LATAM) with financial liberalisation in the 1990s. The rush towards financial liberalisations in the early 1990s was associated with expectations that external financing would alleviate the scarcity of saving in LATAM, thereby increasing investment and growth. Yet, the data and several case studies suggest that the gains from external financing are overrated. The bottleneck inhibiting economic growth is less the scarcity of saving, and more the scarcity of good governance. A possible interpretation for these findings is that in countries where private savings and investments were taxed in an arbitrary and unpredictable way, the credibility of a new regime could not be assumed or imposed. Instead, credibility must be acquired as an outcome of a learning process. Consequently, increasing the saving and investment rates tends to be a time-consuming process. This also suggests that greater political instability and polarisation would induce consumers to be more cautious in increasing their saving and investment rates following a reform. Hence, reaching a sustained take-off in Latin America is a harder task to accomplish than in Asia.

Notes: In this paper, we focus on the evolution of the optimum currency area (OCA) properties between Canada and the United States. To this end, we specifically investigate the relationship between the intra-industry trade dynamics of Canadian provinces with the United States and the increasing level of integration between the two countries from 1980 to 1998. Our findings lead us to support the view that integration (real and monetary) improves the conditions under which a monetary union can yield net gains in the long run for the integrating countries. We also find that exchange rate developments exert asymmetric effects on the Canadian provinces.

Notes: On average, Latin American firms are small with respect to world patterns, both in terms of the quantity of assets they control and the amount of employment they generate. We examine data on firm size from developed and developing countries around the world to assess the influence of demand, supply and institutional factors on the size of the largest firms in each country. We find that, besides the size of the economy and the level of income per capita, the key determinants of the size of firms are trade openness, stock market capitalisation and physical infrastructure. Our simulations suggest that if the gaps with respect to the best Latin American performer were closed in each of these three areas, firm size in the countries of the region would – on average – reach world patterns.

Notes: The last ten years have seen many Latin American and Caribbean nations enact or reform competition laws, and numerous other jurisdictions are considering following suit. The evidential base to guide such policymaking is, however, limited. In this paper we have assembled two databases, one concerning allegations of anti-competitive acts in newspaper articles and another concerning the relationship between competition-related factors and the effects of reforms to liberalise markets, that may go some way to remedying this deficiency. In so doing, we have noticed a number of matters that producers and consumers of research in this area should probably bear in mind.

Notes: This paper provides the first empirical analysis of the global distribution of trademarks. It is based on a new dataset compiled by the authors from the statistical information published by the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO). The questions analysed include the distribution of trademarks among countries of different income levels, the share of trademark registrations accounted for by foreign residents and its variation across different income groups, the extent to which poor countries participate in the international trademark system, and the distribution of registrations across different sectors of the economy. The evidence presented in this paper is relevant for assessing possible welfare implications of changes in intellectual property protection and evaluating the role of reputational assets in determining international trading patterns.

Notes: The rules governing trade and capital flows have been at the centre of controversy as globalisation has proceeded. One reason is the belief that trade and capital flows have massive effects on the labour market – either positive, per the claims of international financial institutions and free trade enthusiasts, or negative, per the ubiquitous protestors at WTO, IMF and World Bank meetings demanding global labour standards. Comparing the claims made in this debate with the outcomes of trade agreements, this paper finds that the debate has exaggerated the effects of trade on economies and the labour market. Changes in trade policy have had modest impacts on the labour market. Other aspects of globalisation – immigration, capital flows and technology transfer – have greater impacts, with volatile capital flows creating great risk for the well-being of workers. As for labour standards, global standards do not threaten the comparative advantage of developing countries nor do poor labour standards create a ‘race to the bottom’.

Notes: Developing countries have been increasing their participation in the formal institutions and proceedings of the multilateral trading system. A prominent example is their more frequent involvement as defendants and plaintiffs in GATT/WTO trade disputes. This paper provides an initial economic appraisal of developing country performance in the GATT/WTO dispute settlement system. We measure the economic resolution of these disputes through trade liberalisation gains, and our results suggest that developing country plaintiffs have had more success under WTO disputes than was the case under the GATT. We also document evidence on potential determinants of this success: the capacity for plaintiffs to make credible retaliatory threats and the guilty determinations by GATT/WTO panels. Finally, there is also some evidence that developing countries have recognised the importance of retaliatory threats and have responded by changing their pattern of dispute initiation under the WTO to better take advantage of the instances in which they have sufficient leverage to threaten retaliation and induce compliance with GATT/WTO obligations.

Notes: The proliferation of preferential trading agreements (PTAs) in different regions of the world has been a significant development over the last two decades. South Asian countries have been slowly moving towards a South Asia Free Trade Area (SAFTA) in recent years. The desirability of SAFTA has been questioned by some observers recently. Will SAFTA create gains for its members or not? Is it better for South Asian countries to promote non-discriminatory trade liberalisation rather than SAFTA? The main objective of this paper is to address the above questions, especially the desirability of SAFTA, using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. From the existing empirical and theoretical studies, we have identified three viewpoints on the desirability (or viability) of SAFTA: pessimistic, optimistic, and moderate. The results from two policy scenarios (unilateral liberalisation and SAFTA) confirm the pessimistic view by showing that unilateral liberalisation would benefit South Asian countries much more than preferential liberalisation (SAFTA). In fact, under preferential liberalisation, small countries in the region would gain little or even lose. The present political climate in South Asia also seems to support the pessimistic view.

Notes: The SPS Agreement and the related WTO dispute settlement mechanism are an important first step in strengthening the global trade architecture, bringing in greater transparency and orderly conditions to world food trade. However, implementation of the new trade rules has turned out to be a more complex task than the traditional market access issues handled by the WTO. Several factors, including inadequate financial and technical resources, have constrained devel-oping countries from becoming effective participants in the implementation process, and there is widespread suspicion that SPS regulations are being used as hidden protectionist devices by developed countries. However, despite all the problems, some developing countries have been quite successful in penetrating developed country food markets; they have done so by accepting the consumer preferences and standards in quality-sensitive high-income markets and implementing domestic supply-side measures. While making full use of available international assistance initiatives, developing countries should view the task of complying with SPS standards not just as a barrier but also as an opportunity to upgrade quality standards and market sophistication in the food export sector.

Notes: Because many authors have proposed stimulating the ailing Japanese economy by monetary expansion and yen depreciation, we explore the repercussions of depreciating the yen against the dollar on the other East Asian economies – which largely peg to the dollar. Since 1980, economic integration among Japan's neighbours – China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand – has intensified and (except for China and Singapore) their business cycles have been highly synchronised. These cycles have been closely linked to fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate – through changes in the export competitiveness, inflows of foreign direct investment and intra-Asian income effects. We show that a major yen devaluation would have a negative impact on incomes in other East Asian economies and that it is not a sensible policy option for Japan.

Notes: The large and vibrant informal trade between India, and Bangladesh continues to thrive despite unilateral/regional/multilateral trade liberalisation in these two countries. This calls for an in-depth analysis of India's informal trade with Bangladesh. Using insights from the New Institutional Economics informal and formal institutions engaged in cross-border trade are contrasted to examine whether informal trading arrangements provide better institutional solutions. The analysis, carried out on the basis of an extensive survey conducted in India and Bangladesh reveals that informal traders in India and Bangladesh have developed efficient mechanisms for contract enforcement, information flows, risk sharing and risk mitigation. Further, informal traders prefer to trade through the informal channel because the transaction costs of trading in the informal channel are significantly lower than the formal channel implying that informal trade takes place due to the inefficient institutional set up in the formal channel. The principal policy implication from the study is that unless the transacting environment of formal traders improves, informal trade will continue to coexist with formal trade, even if free trade is established in the SAARC region.

Notes: This paper applies modern tools of economic analysis to examine the nature of transnational terrorism and associated collective action concerns that arise in the aftermath of September 11. Throughout the paper, the strategic interaction between rational terrorists and targeted governments are underscored. Networked terrorists draw on their collective strengths to exploit a maximum advantage over targeted governments’ inadequate and uncoordinated responses. A wide range of issues are explored including governments’ deterrence races, undersupplied pre-emption, and suicidal attacks. Myriad substitutions by terrorists limit government anti-terrorism policy effectiveness. A host of policy responses are evaluated in light of economic analysis and past econometric evidence.

Notes: We discuss the possible dynamic benefits of economic integration for the new members of ASEAN. Direct evidence on regional integration and growth is weak, but three indirect channels are possible. Openness increases access to foreign knowledge, which could help productivity growth. Trade liberalisation is likely to stimulate investment and might promote the integration of the regional production network. Binding liberalisation under AFTA would help ‘lock-in’ and accelerate liberal economic reforms. These gains are not automatic, however. Discriminatory liberalisation will switch imports from sources with high stocks of knowledge towards ASEAN countries, which have lower stocks, and so may lower productivity growth. We term this ‘dynamic’ trade diversion. In addition, local absorptive capabilities must be developed to benefit fully from technology transfer. Finally, we recommend extending AFTA commitments on an MFN basis in order to avoid static and dynamic trade diversions.

Notes: Books reviewed:William C. Hunter, George G. Kaufman And Michael Pomerleano (eds.), Asset Price BubblesNancy Birdsall And John Williamson (With Brian Deese), Delivering on Debt Relief: From IMF Gold to a New Aid ArchitectureKatrin Springer, Climate Policy in a Globalizing World

Notes: Multi-functionality is a currently fashionable argument, especially within the EU, for continued support of the farming sector. However, there is a substantial danger that this will be used, and be seen to being used, as a façade for continued traditional support and protection. If so, the current trend towards liberalised agricultural markets, on which much of the developing world depends, will be frustrated. Nevertheless, farming does matter to many communities, over and above its marketable surplus and the incomes so generated. It follows that any negotiations aimed at liberalising agricultural trade have to take these arguments seriously. To do so requires that the critical elements of the debate be widely understood. This paper outlines these critical elements, in the light of a previous contribution from Hodge (2000). It argues that there are ways in which quasi-market systems can be used to correct market failures implicit in the notion of multi-functionality. It also argues that proper compensation to existing supported farmers is a necessary and separate condition for sensible policy reform. Much of the commentary on farm trade liberalisation confuses the two separate conditions for reform: multi-functionality and compensation. This confusion threatens progress towards agricultural trade liberalisation, without generating any reliable benefits of a more multifunctional agriculture.

Notes: A key element of the EU's free trade and preferential trade agreements is the extent to which they deliver improved market access and so contribute to the EU's foreign policy objectives towards developing countries and neighbouring countries in Europe, including the countries of the Balkans. Previous preferential trade schemes have been ineffective in delivering improved access to the EU market since only a small proportion of the available preferences have actually been utilised. The main reason for this is probably the very restrictive rules of origin that the EU imposes, coupled with the costs of proving consistency with these rules. If the EU wants the ‘Everything but Arms’ agreement and free trade agreements with countries in the Balkans to generate substantial improvements in access to the EU market for products from these countries then it will have to reconsider the current rules of origin and implement less restrictive rules backed up by a careful safeguards policy..

Notes: When the effective protection concept was first developed it was widely regarded as a key measure of the structure of protection and became widely deployed. It was however, subject to a theoretical critique on the grounds that it was essentially a partial equilibrium measure, which could not be easily embedded in a general equilibrium framework. Notwithstanding this critique, the concept has continued to be widely used, especially in the context of policy reform and policy appraisal in developing countries. This paper re-appraises the concept, reviews the extent of its application and discusses the factors behind its longevity as an investigative tool. The paper concludes that the measure still has a role to play in evaluating the structure of protection.

Notes: After briefly explaining the causes of the Japanese asset-price bubble in the 1980s, this paper analyses why the bursting of the bubble developed into a full-fledged financial crisis in the late 1990s. In order to cope with this crisis, the Government has injected capital directly into the banking sector and banks have written off enormous amounts of bad loans. However, the Japanese financial sector remains very weak and Japan still faces a number of problems in its financial system. Firstly, the profit margin of banks is too small to cover the increased default risk following the bursting of the bubble, and there are market distortions created by the government-backed financial institutions and the requirements on new lending to small and medium sized companies. Secondly, banks still have excessive stock investment and crossholding of shares between banks and other companies has weakened the market discipline on entrenched management. Thirdly, the government guarantee of all banking-sector liabilities should be removed. Once the financial system is stabilised, a risk-adjusted deposit insurance premium should be introduced so as to strengthen market discipline on banks, and the huge postal saving system should be privatised to create a level-playing field among deposit taking financial institutions. Besides the foregoing, the weak corporate governance structure of Japanese financial institutions has to be remodelled. The management of banks has shielded themselves by extensive cross-shareholdings, especially with life insurance companies. There has been extensive mutual provision of capital, most large life insurance companies have weak corporate governance, and many of the large shareholders of banks are life insurance companies. This double gearing between banks and life insurance companies has therefore weakened the market control of Japanese financial institutions.

Notes: This paper first summarises Japan's fiscal policies in the 1990s. Then, we investigate the macroeconomic impact of government debt and the sustainability problem. We find that the Keynesian fiscal policy in the 1990s was not effective and fiscal sustainability may therefore become a serious issue. We also estimate the optimal level of deficits and evaluate fiscal reconstruction movements. It is shown that the actual deficit exceeded the optimal level in the late 1990s. We then inspect fiscal reconstruction movements in the Hashimoto Administration in 1997 and find that the major factor of recession in 1997 was not fiscal consolidation. An important lesson from Japan's fiscal policies in the 1990s is that long-run structural reform is more important than short-run Keynesian policy.

Notes: This paper attempts to explore the underlying causes of twin crises experienced by Turkey in November 2000 and February 2001. We study an extensive set of leading indicators of crises that are drawn from the existing literature. Our results identify three sets of vulnerabilities in the Turkish economy in triggering the financial crisis and bringing about the collapse of the Turkish lira. These are: first, the weak external position caused by excessive debt burden combined with the loss of competitiveness; second, the weak fiscal position resulting from the record levels of interest payments on domestic borrowing; and most importantly, third, weaknesses in the financial and banking sector. Given these observations, we argue that the success of financial sector reform is instrumental not only for putting the economy on a sustainable recovery path but also for reducing the likelihood of similar crises in the future. The general lesson to be drawn from this experience is that a sound financial system is a pre-condition for the successful operation of a fixed exchange rate regime.

Notes: This paper analyses the growth of production and employment in China during the period 1978 to the early 1990s. It argues that the Chinese experience with export-led growth provides an excellent case study of the phenomenon of a vent for surplus resources provided by exports, identified by Adam Smith in the Wealth of Nations and elaborated by Hla Myint. The paper extends the Smith-Myint model of ‘vent-for-surplus’ productive capacity to ‘vent-for-surplus’ resources by allowing for foreign investment flows. The ‘vent-for-surplus’ effect of exports on employment and growth is examined in a dynamic labour demand framework for a panel of township and village enterprises (TVEs) in China.

Notes: Books reviewed:PETER NOLAN, China at the Crossroads.HUBERT STRAUSS, Demand and Supply of Aggregate Exports of Goods and Services: Multivariate Cointegration Analyses for the United States, Canada, and Germany.HORST SIEBERT (ed.), Macroeconomic Policies in the World Eco-nomy.JAMES R. MARKUSEN, Multinational Firms and the Theory of Inter-national Trade.

Notes: Since the beginning of the 1990s Japan has experienced economic stagnation. The economy had been allowed to overheat in the 1980s and a bubble had been built up. When this burst, there was massive asset-deflation, which led to a banking crisis. The bad debts were not faced up to effectively. Japanese banks could not achieve high enough margins to recapitalise themselves, and the government was for a long time reluctant to intervene effectively. The shock made economic agents more pessimistic, which led to an imbalance between savings and investment-demand. Excess savings were placed abroad and used to finance a domestic fiscal deficit, but this was not enough to close the gap and sustain growth. To be able to run a large current account surplus the yen needed to depreciate, but this was not achieved due to expectations about a future appreciation. The strategy to get out of the liquidity trap would include credible inflation targeting and yen depreciation. Monetary policy should have an inflation target well above zero per cent. Such macroeconomic measures need to be complemented by structural reforms such as deregulation of financial services, competition policy and reallocation of public investments. The Japanese development model with close connections between firms and banks needs to be reformed. Japan should be able to achieve stable growth again, but since the catch-up phase is over one would not expect growth in Japan to be higher than in other developed countries, even if Japan undertakes the needed reforms.

Notes: This paper analyses the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) framework for the case of Estonia using a unique dataset that consists of a 15-sectoral breakdown of GDP and a five-digit level CPI disaggregation with 260 items over the period from 1993 to 2002. Unlike the existing literature, the paper focuses on the following four aspects of the phenomenon: (a) data disaggregation, (b) definition of goods tradability, (c) price regulatedness in services and (d) possible heterogeneity across transition countries. It turns out that the first three aspects do matter and, in addition to this, Estonia appears to bear very specific characteristics when compared with other transition countries. A battery of cointegration techniques (DOLS, ARDL, Johansen) shows that productivity is strongly related to relative prices only when regulated prices are controlled for appropriately in the consumer price index and when country-specific classification is applied to the open and closed sectors. The B-S effect contributed to CPI by 1 to 1.5 per cent at the outset of the period and by 0.4 to 0.6 per cent in 2002, whereas its potential long-run impact is estimated to be 1 to 1.2 per cent. Although real appreciation due to the B-S effect seems higher in the early 1990s, it explains that better real appreciation occurred in recent years.

Notes: More than three years have passed since the inception of the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) in May 2000. Although much progress has been made, the present structure of the CMI is still incomplete. The purpose of this paper is to provide a view on the current process and future prospects for regional financial and monetary cooperation in East Asia. Looking forward, the most realistic scenario is that the countries participating in the CMI will muddle through, continuously discussing modalities of policy dialogue, the types of the surveillance system the CMI needs, and also augmentation of swap amounts without making any substantial progress.

Notes: The United States grants preferential (tariff- and quota-free) market access to a list of products from eligible countries in sub-Saharan Africa through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). We analyse the increase in prices received by apparel exporters who benefited from AGOA preferences. In the presence of competitive markets, export prices should increase as much as the tariff which was previously collected by the US government. We refer to this price increase as the ‘tariff preference rent’ since exporters receive this income as the rent for their preferential status. The results show that exporters receive only one-third of this rent and smaller exporters receive less than larger and established ones. We then provide evidence that suggests this may be due to the degree of market power enjoyed by US importers when facing African exporters.

Notes: The debates on regional trade arrangements in East Asia focus on whether the RTAs can be net trade creating or diverting, and whether they impede multilateral trade liberalisation or not. This paper attempts to answer these questions by quantitatively estimating the economic impact of possible East Asian free trade areas based on a bilateral gravity model, and evaluating the main characteristics of the proposed FTAs. We find that the trade creation effect expected from the proposed East Asian FTAs such as a China-Japan-Korea or an ASEAN plus three (China, Japan, Korea) FTA will be significant enough to overwhelm the trade diversion effect. We also judge that East Asian FTAs will likely be a building block for a global free trade.

Notes: This paper evaluates Burundi's progress with trade policy reform, by comparing earlier analyses of Burundi's trade policies undertaken in the 1980s with that of the WTO's recent Trade Policy Review. Since the mid-1980s Burundi has been trying to reform its trade and macroeconomic policies against the background of continuous socio-political tensions and periodic outbreaks of violent tribal conflict. A ‘then and now’ comparison allows us to assess both the extent of the trade reforms and of the economic return to those reforms. It is evident that there has been a significant rationalisation and simplification of trade policy. Burundi has eliminated most quantitative import restrictions and reduced the average level and range of its tariffs. The scope for allocative distortions, undesirable redistributive effects and for impediments to investment and growth has been substantially reduced. However, a return to reform in terms of export growth or diversification and of overall economic growth is not discernible yet. This is unsurprising, given the scale of the economic disruption. Sustained socio-political stability, among other things, will be required to induce the investment in human and physical capital needed for a positive return to trade policy reform.

Notes: The World Trade Organisation published a Trade Policy Review of Canada in 2003. In this paper, we discuss the WTO Review and augment the discussion by presenting original data and reviewing the empirical literature. The WTO concludes that Canada's trade regime is open and transparent but maintains barriers in a few important sectors. We subject this claim to empirical scrutiny, comparing Canada's actual imports to a multilateral benchmark based on the gravity equation. We show that Canada imports about what should be expected given the size of its economy and its location. In a second benchmarking exercise, we show that Canada's anti-dumping initiations are in proportion to its imports and that Canada's exports are targeted less by other countries’ anti-dumping investigations than what might be expected based on Canadian export levels. Like many other countries, Canada has pursued trade liberalisation through the World Trade Organisation while simultaneously signing multiple regional trade agreements. Our summary of the recent literature indicates that Canada's regional trade agreements have generated more trade creation than trade diversion. Canada has also spurred imports from the least developed countries by unilaterally eliminating tariffs and quota barriers on 48 of the world's poorest countries in January 2003. We also discuss Canadian progress in opening its agriculture and clothing industries. Overall, we conclude that Canada appears committed to advancing globalisation through multilateral trade liberalisation supplemented by unilateral and bilateral initiatives.

Notes: This paper draws on Hinkle and Schiff (2003). It analyses the planned Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the EU and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from a development perspective. It does not take a position on whether SSA should enter into EPAs with the EU. Rather, it starts from the notion that the process of forming EPAs is unlikely to be reversed and examines the conditions that will maximise SSA's benefits from the EPAs. If this notion is correct, then the analysis presented in the paper applies. On the other hand, Pascal Lamy, the EU Trade Commissioner, made a proposal at the May 2004 G-90 summit in Dakar that might lead to a change in the EPA process. He proposed that the G-90, a group consisting of ACP and non-ACP LDC countries, should not have to make concessions at the WTO Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations, i.e., he proposed a ‘free round’ for the G-90. This proposal opens the door to the possibility that the same might apply to the ACP countries in the EU-ACP negotiations and that the EPA process might be reversed. The paper considers the key issues raised by the planned EPAs, their relationship to the WTO's Doha Round and the EU's Everything-but-Arms Initiative, the changes needed to make the EPAs internally consistent, the domestic reforms in SSA that would need to accompany trade liberalisation in both goods and services, and the potential effects of the EPAs on regional integration in SSA. The EPAs will pose a number of policy challenges for SSA countries, including: restructuring of indirect tax systems, reduction of MFN tariffs, liberalisation of service imports on an MFN basis and related regulatory reforms in the services sector, and liberalisation of trade in both goods and services within the regional trading blocs in SSA. The paper also finds that the EPAs provide an opportunity to accelerate regional and global trade integration in SSA. To realise the potential development benefits of the planned EPAs, two steps are essential. First, the EU must, as it has stated, truly treat the EPAs as instruments of development, subordinating its commercial interests in the agreements to the development needs of SSA. Second, the SSA countries need to implement a number of EPA-related trade policy reforms. However, the latter is far from certain, given the lack of reform momentum in SSA.

Notes: Tunisia and Egypt have both recently undertaken significant steps toward trade reform. They have committed to a partnership agreement with the European Union. Both countries have also joined the WTO and are participating in Doha Round discussions on the liberalisation of non-tariff barriers on both goods and services trade. These developments provide an interesting context within which to investigate not only the changes in welfare associated with reforms affecting the trade in goods, but also the impacts of services liberalisation. Using open-economy computable general equilibrium models for both Tunisia and Egypt, this paper explores the reasons why structural differences in these two economies imply different opportunities and challenges with trade reform and services liberalisation. The gains from eliminating barriers at the border for goods trade are significantly greater for Tunisia than Egypt. Both countries, however, gain substantially from liberalisation of foreign direct investment in services. Furthermore, economic growth is more evenly distributed across sectors than with liberalisation of trade in goods alone. In addition to reporting on the impact of alternative policies on income, output, employment and trade, sector-level effects are also considered.

Notes: This paper analyses the impact of rules of origin on patterns of trade in the context of the pan-European system of diagonal cumulation. The paper first highlights the importance of rules of origin in all preferential trading arrangements while arguing that those rules can easily lead to trade suppression and/or trade diversion. We then focus on the introduction of the pan-European system in 1997 and show evidence to suggest that the introduction of the system materially impacted on trade between the EU, and its CEFTA, EFTA and Baltic states partner countries. The main body of the paper then empirically explores the impact of the lack of cumulation in the textile industry on the countries of the Southern Mediterranean. The results suggest that rules of origin may indeed substantially constrain trade between non-cumulating countries, possibly by as much as 70–80 per cent in aggregate. While preferential trading agreements thus serve to increase intra-PTA trade through the liberalisation of trade barriers, they may also be doing so by effectively raising external barriers to trade through the use of constraining rules of origin. To the extent that they do so increases the likelihood of trade diversion and trade suppresion.

Notes: The central theme of this paper is that sustained rapid growth cannot be achieved without rapid growth in trade. A review of the experience during the past four decades offers virtually no examples of countries achieving sustained rapid growth – called miracles in this paper – without simultaneously experiencing sustained rapid growth in trade in the presence of low or high but declining barriers to trade. Simultaneously, the claim that opening to trade leads to sustained income losses is unfounded. A review of the experience of the countries that have faced stagnation or declining per-capita incomes on a long-term basis – called debacles in this paper – reveals no connection to a sustained surge in imports.

Notes: Book reviewsINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, Fiscal Adjustment in IMF-Supported Pro-grams: Evaluation Report.MAGNUS BLOMSTRÖM (ed.), Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan.EDWIN M. TRUMAN, Inflation Targeting in the World Economy.

Notes: This paper discusses the potential impacts of services trade liberalisation on developing countries and reviews existing quantitative studies. Its purpose is to distill themes from current literature rather than to advocate specific policy changes. The picture emerging is one of valiant attempts to quantify in the presence of formidable analytical and data problems yielding only a clouded image of likely impacts on trade, consumption, production and welfare emerging to the point that the policy implications of results are not always clear.A central intuition would seem to be that with genuine two-sided (OECD/non-OECD) liberalisation in services that are seemingly considerably labour-intensive in delivery, the potential should be there for significant developing country gains from global liberalisation allowing full cross-border delivery. However, this picture is neither fully endorsed by available studies, neither is it explicitly contradicted. This seems to be the case for a number of reasons.One difficulty with the studies is that the conceptual underpinnings of what determines trade in services and how this trade differs analytically from that of trade in goods (if at all) is an issue prior to assessments of impacts of liberalisation of trade in services on developing countries being discussed. Key issues here are the treatment of mobility for service providers (both firms and workers), and the differing analytical structures needed to analyse individual service items (banking, insurance, telecoms, etc.). Some recent analytical work suggests that liber-alisation in some service items, such as banking, need not always yield gains, and this contrasts with quantitative studies where analytical structures mirror conventional trade in goods treatments.The discussion and measurement of barriers to service trade in both developed and developing countries is also problematic. One is talking of domestic regulation, entry barriers, portability of providers, competition policy regimes more so than only barriers at national borders, as with tariffs. Both representing and quantifying such barriers raise major difficulties, and these are also spelled out in the paper. Which barriers actually restrict trade, and which do not because they are redundant is one issue, for instance. It is also often misleading to represent barriers in simple ad valorem equivalent form. As a result, numerical modelling work on the effects of service trade barriers which is based on ad valorem equivalent modelling is often not fully convincing.In addition, individual country results vary considerably across studies in ways that it is frequently hard for outsiders to understand. Studies do, however, point towards a tentative conclusion that effects are small and positive for developed and most developing countries if FDI flow changes accompanying service trade liberalisation are excluded from the analysis, but much larger and more variable across countries if they are present. This could be taken to suggest that mode 3 GATS liberalisation (roughly captured in some studies) might be important for developing countries; but mode 4 GATS liberalisation could be even more important given large barriers to labour flows across countries. Thus, if service trade liberalisation is thought of primarily as a surrogate for improved functioning of global factor markets in which more capital flows to developing countries and more labour flows from them to developed countries, then developing countries could benefit in a major way from genuine two-sided (OECD/non-OECD) liberalisation. Developing countries fear, however, that in global negotiations on services liberalisation where there is an asymmetry of power that largely one-sided liberalisation may be the outcome, and their gains will be correspondingly limited. The paper concludes by evaluating econometric studies on linkage between services liberalisation and country growth rules, and briefly discusses some key sectoral issues in health services and transportation.

Notes: Books reviewed:DOUGLAS A. IRWIN, Free Trade Under FireBARBARA BLASZCZYK, IRAJ HOSHI and RICHARD WOODWARD (eds.), Secondary Privatisation in Transition Economies: The Evolution of Enterprise Ownership in the Czech Republic, Poland and SloveniaJAGDISH BHAGWATI (ed.), Going Alone: The Case for Relaxed Reciprocity in Freeing TradeTHEO S. EICHER and STEPHEN J. TURNOVSKY (eds.), Inequality and Growth: Theory and Policy Implications

Notes: We examine in this paper the effects of WTO Accession on policy-making and institutional reforms in transition countries. This is done by looking at the experience of those transition countries which are already Members of the WTO and/or which have recently acceded. We start by trying to distinguish between effects of accession negotiations and from those which are the results of autonomous policy initiatives. The areas of domestic policy-making which are considered in the analysis include market access, governance, government budget, structural reforms, trade and investment arrangements with regional partners and macroeconomic management. We find that no precise blueprint of accession conditions can be ascertained and argue that the WTO played a role, albeit not an exclusive one, in the process of liberalisation. We also find that the costs of WTO Accession are not negligible, but that the benefits of WTO Membership are significant in terms of improved, more predictable, market access and its stability, improved governance and a recourse to better economic policies without significant loss to government revenues.

Notes: In large measure, the voice that developing countries were able to exercise in Cancun was a result of their effective coalition formation. In this paper we present a brief overview of the various coalitions that played an important role at Cancun. The greater part of this paper focuses on one among these various coalitions: the G20 on agriculture. The G20 presents an especially fascinating case of a coalition that combined a great diversity of members and apparently incompatible interests. All theoretical reasoning and historical precedent predicted that the group would collapse in the endgame. And yet the group survived. We investigate the sources of the unity of this group and trace them to a process of learning that allowed the group to acquire certain structural features and develop strategies that helped to cement it further. While our central dependent variable is the cohesion of the G20, we also address the derivative question of the costs and benefits of maintaining such coalitions. The Cancun coalitions give us an excellent case of coalitions that managed to retain their cohesion, but also ended up with a situation of no agreement rather than a fulfilment of even some of their demands. We examine some of the causes behind the impasse in the negotiation process and suggest ways in which future outcomes could be improved.

Notes: This paper sheds light on the risks associated with currency board arrangements, referring to the severe liquidity crisis that emerged in Argentina in November 2000. The inability of the Argentinean economy to grow because of an overvalued peso and the massive borrowing needs of the government in the context of rapidly rising borrowing costs seriously undermined the credibility of the fixed-exchange rate regime. Given the widespread dollarisation of the financial sector on the liability side, Argentina had arguably little choice but to stick to the currency board. A series of measures aimed at reviving growth were implemented but with no signs of upturn in demand, increasingly distrustful international investors and growing social unrest, the country was forced into default in December 2001, putting an abrupt end to its decade long experiment with hard money. This study shows that with rigid labour markets, a lack of fiscal discipline and the absence of a natural anchor currency, Argentina was never a strong candidate for a hard peg.

Notes: For FDI to help alleviate absolute poverty and stimulate economic growth in developing countries, two conditions have to be met. First, developing countries need to be attractive to foreign investors. Second, the host-country environment in which foreign investors operate must be conducive to favourable FDI effects with regard to overall investment, economic spillovers and income growth. This paper argues that it is more difficult to benefit from FDI than to attract FDI. The widely perceived concentration of FDI in few developing countries tends to obscure that, in relative terms, various small and poor countries are fairly attractive to FDI. Yet, the mobilisation of domestic resources remains by far, more important than attracting FDI for financing investment and stimulating economic growth. Furthermore, high inward FDI is no guarantee for poverty alleviation and positive growth effects. In particular, the empirical evidence suggests that host-country conditions typically prevailing in poor countries, including weak institutions and an insufficient endowment of complementary factors of production, constrain the growth-enhancing and poverty-alleviating effects of FDI. The crux is that creating an environment in which FDI may deliver social returns will take considerable time exactly where development needs are most pressing.

Notes: Prior to the onset of the Asian financial crisis there was a deterioration in the external trade position of most countries that were affected by the Asian currency crisis. However, little is known about why this occurred. This paper aims to identify the causes of a slowdown in export growth in Malaysia. While misaligned exchange rates have been widely cited as a cause of the slowdown in East Asia; in the Malaysian context at least a vulnerability to the downturn in the electronic cycle could also be a major factor leading to poor export performance. Using the US/yen dollar rate as a proxy for exchange rate misalignment and US total new orders for electronics as a proxy for global electronics demand, cointegration analysis was used to establish the likely causes of a slowdown in Malaysia's export performance. The empirical evidence suggests that the coincidence of exchange rate misalignment with a downturn in the global electronics demand cycle was responsible for the sharp deterioration in export performance.

Notes: Two basic views can be discerned in post-mortems of Argentina's currency board: (1) that weak fiscal policy was fundamentally to blame, and (2) that the peso had become too severely overvalued for the peg to survive. This paper evaluates the evidence for these rival interpretations. The real effective exchange rate index did not indicate massive overvaluation, but this index does not capture the effects on the equilibrium rate of the ‘sudden stop’ in capital flows to emerging markets after 1998. It also understates the amount of adjustment required for Argentina to reach the equilibrium rate, because neighbour countries’ dollar exchange rates were held up by Argentina's overvaluation, as is indicated by their depreciation in 2002. Argentina was particularly vulnerable to the sudden stop because of the extreme volatility of its portfolio inflows. Fiscal policy simulations suggest that, even with a substantially improved primary balance from 1994 onwards, loss of investor confidence would still have triggered unsustainable debt dynamics once the recession began to bite after 1998. The stagnation of output and prices in Argentina created a yawning gap between the interest rate on debt and the rate of growth of nominal GDP. Had the currency been floated in, say, 1995, the real devaluation of the peso would still have pushed up the debt/GDP ratio, but higher output would have left greater scope for addressing this by running a sizeable primary surplus. Moreover, the more gradual depreciation under floating might have allowed the economy to adjust to higher debt service payments without resort to default. The IMF has criticised itself for not pressing for tighter fiscal policy in the 1990s. A more fundamental criticism would be that it was seduced by the bipolar model into complacency about adjustment to real shocks and forgetting the teachings of optimum currency area theory.

Notes: Books reviewed:Robert E. Litan, Michael Pomerleano and V. Sundararjan (eds), The Future of Domestic Capital Markets in Developing CountriesPedro-Pablo Kuczynski and John Williamson (eds), After the Washington Consensus: Restarting Growth and Reform in Latin America

Notes: Democratising the governance of the IMF will significantly improve the institution's capacity to manage crises. The implementation of a democratic framework requires a reform of the Fund's ‘quota regime,’ which mediates the distribution of voting power. An optimal reform of the quota regime that reflects the increased weight of emerging economies requires matching the number of policy objectives with the number of policy instruments. Presently, there is a classic ‘assignment problem’ whereby one policy instrument (i.e., the quota regime) is aimed at achieving three objectives (i.e., member contribution obligations, access rights, and voting rights). Three different instruments need to be adopted. Member contributions should be based on member's capacity to pay; access to resources should be based on need; and voting rights should balance the rights of creditors with the principle of sovereign equality. These reforms will enhance the Fund's legitimacy and accountability as a forum for global economic policy-making.

Notes: The issue of special and differential treatment (SDT) for developing countries in the WTO has become a source of tension in North-South trade relations. The absence of an effective SDT regime clearly contributed to the failure of the Cancún Ministerial meeting of the WTO. This paper argues for a new approach that puts the emphasis on efforts to improve the development relevance of WTO rules and create mechanisms which allow greater differentiation across WTO members in determining the applicability of WTO disciplines; complemented by non-discriminatory liberalisation of trade in goods and services in which developing countries have an export interest. The former is key in allowing the WTO to expand its reach to new ‘behind the border’ policies; and the latter is important to establishing a development dimension in multilateral trade negotiations.

Notes: Increasing attention is being paid to political economy dimensions of the IMF's operations. However, up until now, the literature has lacked a systematic overview of how politics and economics interact in this context. This paper sets out to fill the gap. Its conceptual basis is that of the ‘life cycle’ of an IMF programme. What determines the decision to turn to the Fund for financial assistance, what determines the outcome of negotiations, what determines whether a country will come back to the Fund? Answers to these questions cannot be satisfactorily given by examining economics alone. The paper draws on existing evidence to provide an empirically based discussion of the issues involved. It also points the direction in which future research needs to go. Some of the policy implications of the analysis are also examined.

Notes: The review of India's trade policy by the WTO, the third of its kind, is in three parts: the report by the WTO secretariat, a statement by the government of India and minutes of the discussion of the report by the trade policy review board. The review provides detailed information not only on India's trade and foreign investment policies but also an analytical review of India's export and economic performance. The review notes that India has made considerable progress with the liberalisation of its trade and investment regime, but it has a long way to go if it were to achieve a growth rate of eight to nine per cent, the stated objective of the policy makers. This paper, drawing upon the material in the report, analyses India's growth prospects and endorses the broad conclusions of the report.

Notes: This paper provides a selective review of the recent analytical and empirical literature on the benefits and costs of international financial integration. It discusses the impact of financial openness and capital flows on consumption, investment and growth, as well as the impact of foreign bank entry on the domestic financial system. It argues that, for small open developing countries, the benefits of financial integration are mostly long term in nature, whereas risks can be significant in the short run. Careful preparation and management are therefore essential to ensure that short-run costs do not lead to policy reversals. It also stresses that the empirical evidence on the impact of foreign direct investment on domestic capital formation and growth, as well as on the effects of foreign bank entry, should be viewed with caution. In particular, the possibility that foreign bank penetration may lead to adverse changes in the allocation of credit cannot be dismissed on the basis of the existing evidence.

Notes: We discuss liberalising the temporary mobility of workers under Mode 4 of the GATS, particularly the movement of medium and low skilled service providers between developing and developed countries. Such mobility potentially offers huge returns: a flow equivalent to three per cent of developed countries’ skilled and unskilled work forces would generate an estimated increase in world welfare of over US$150 billion, shared fairly equally between developing and developed countries. The larger part of this emanates from the less-skilled, essentially because losing higher-skilled workers cuts output in developing countries severely. The mass migration of less skilled workers raises fears in developed countries for cultural identity, problems of assimilation and the drain on the public purse. These fears are hardly relevant to temporary movement, however. The biggest economic concern from temporary mobility is its competitive challenge to local less skilled workers. But as populations age and the average levels of training and education rise, developed countries will face an increasing scarcity of less skilled labour. Temporary mobility thus actually offers a strong communality of interest between developing and developed countries.The remainder of the paper looks at the GATS provisions on Mode 4 and the commitments that have been made under it. The paper reviews several official proposals for the Doha talks, including the very detailed one from India, and considers several countries’ existing schemes for the temporary movement of foreign workers. Many countries have long had bilateral foreign worker programmes, and some regional agreements provide for liberal and flexible movement. These show what is feasible and how concerns can be overcome. We caution that, to be useful, any WTO agreement must increase mobility, not just bureaucratise it.The paper concludes with some modest and practical proposals. We suggest, inter alia, that licensing firms to arrange the movement of labour is the most promising short-term approach to increasing temporary mobility.

Notes: This paper focuses on the US tariff preference afforded to Mexico relative to non-NAFTA trading partners and evaluates the trade effects of NAFTA in a manner consistent with the idea behind a preferential trading agreement. The estimation technique exploits the time-varying dimension of the tariff preference over 1989 to 2001. This is important because the tariff preference for Mexico into the United States market existed prior to NAFTA. Further, the NAFTA preference was phased in over time. We find that a higher US tariff preference for Mexico corresponds to increased US import demand for Mexican goods, and that a higher Mexican tariff preference for the United States corresponds to increased Mexican demand for US exports. Interestingly, import demand was more responsive to changes in the tariff preference once NAFTA was in place than it was on average.

Notes: Far from being the leader, the US has been a ‘domino’ belatedly falling into line in the global rush toward bilateral and regional free trade arrangements. Often the initiative for negotiations has come from seemingly weaker trading partners. Once in the game, however, and aware of the asymmetries of market power and issue salience that enhance US bargaining leverage, the US has been aggressively pursuing a variety of commercial and diplomatic interests, both tactical and strategic, that include bolstering local democratic institutions and processes of economic reform, strengthening US security ties, accelerating region-wide commercial liberalisation by allying with a regional leader, establishing new precedents to use as bench markers in future trade negotiations, and otherwise using free trade accords to advance its comprehensive global trade policy agenda. Bilateralism and regionalism have opened the door to an explicit introduction of political criteria, in contradiction to GATT/WTO apolitical universalism. While often reactive to the initiatives of other nations, the US has not been indiscriminate, deflecting the entreaties of suitors where US international political economy interests are not served.

Notes: This paper describes the United States recently enacted Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and assesses its quantitative impact on African exports. The AGOA expands the scope of preferential access of Africa's exports to the United States in key areas such as clothing. However, its medium-term benefits – estimated at about US$100-$140 million, an 8−11 per cent addition to current non-oil exports – would have been nearly five times greater (US$540 million) if no restrictive conditions had been imposed on the terms of market access. The most important of these conditions are the rules of origin with which African exporters of clothing must comply to benefit from duty-free access.

Notes: I employ two alternative intra-industry trade Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) models to explain some stylised facts of the British economy. The model with skill-biased technical change (i.e. exogenous skill-biased technical change à la Solow) can explain the rise in wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers, the decline in manufacturing and the expansion of modern services. However, the model where technical change is trade-induced (i.e. endogenous sector-biased technical change à la Romer) performs better, because it can also explain the exponential rise of imported intermediate capital goods and developments in the wage rate of unskilled workers.

Notes: We examine the competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture and food processing, in relation to that of the EU, based on four indices of revealed comparative advantage, using highly disaggregate data for the period 1992 to 1998. Consistency tests suggest that the indices are less satisfactory as cardinal measures, but are useful in identifying the demarcation between comparative advantage and comparative disadvantage. Hungary is shown to have a comparative advantage in a range of agri-food products, including animals and meat. This complements the findings of those studies that have used price and cost based approaches in identifying competitiveness in cereals and crops. Results indicate that the RCA indices, when interpreted as a binary measure, have remained surprisingly stable during the period of transition, although there is evidence of a weakening in the level of comparative advantage as revealed in the Balassa index.

Notes: This article summarises, extends and updates previous empirical work on the distributional implications of alternative health care financing arrangements in a selection of European countries and the US. On the one hand, total health care payments are almost proportional to ability to pay in most countries. This is predominantly driven by a high reliance on public financing. On the other hand, private payments – out-of-pocket payments as well as private insurance premiums – are highly regressive. More extended reliance on private financing may therefore endanger the equitable nature of financing systems. In addition, private payments put a heavy burden on unfortunate households.

Notes: This article is reproduced from NRI Quarterly Volume 1 No. 3 Winter 1992 and is reprinted by special permission of Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.

Notes: Book Reviwes in The Article:Hilmer, Frederick G.; Strictly Boardroom – the report of an Independent Working Party into Cornorate Governance; Information Australia, Melbourne and The Sydney Institute, Sydney, AustraliaHumphrey, Christopher, Peter Moizer and Stuart Turley; The Audit Expectations Gap in the United Kingdom; The Auditing Research Foundation of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales; LondonBosch, Henry; Bosch on Business, Information Australia, Melbourne, Australia, 1992.

Notes: The communication process between publicly-listed companies and their constituents continues to change, often stimulated by the concern of regulators to make markets more efficient. The paper examines six areas where development is occurring within the North American reporting environment: summary reporting, management discussion and analysis, risk and uncertainty, interim reporting, continuous information disclosure, and financial statement reporting. The paper also identifies areas where significant reporting frustrations remain. These areas may signal the direction of financial reporting research and change that will be experienced outside of the North American environment during the next decade.

Notes: This study tests the proposition that tolerance for ambiguity, a personality variable, is a significant moderating variable on the effects of management advisory services (MAS), competition and size of audit firm on bankers' perceptions of auditor independence. Using 41 New Zealand bank officers as subjects and a multifactor ANOVA design, this study found that tolerance for ambiguity moderated the effects of MAS and audit firm size on third party perceptions of auditor independence.

Notes: Book Reviewed in this article:Banaga, Abdelgadir, Graham H. Ray and Cyril R. Tomkins (1994) External Audit and Corporate Governance in Islamic Banks.