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  • Articles  (340)
  • Springer  (340)
  • 2020-2024  (9)
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  • Political Science
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  • Articles  (340)
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  • 1
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    Springer
    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 23-45 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A common view of the energy problem holds that what is at stake in most energy policy debates are questions of fact that are in principle susceptible to resolution by objective, scientific research. It is argued in this paper that this view is misguided, and that underlying many of the factual issues apparently in dispute are differences at the framework level, that is differences in basic presuppositions and the patterns of thinking employed. By means of an examination of the debate over soft and hard energy paths, it will be argued that framework differences are fundamental to that debate and that such differences are not susceptible to factual resolution. As a result, the debate has taken on the character of a ritualized performance, as each side strives to convince, not their opponents, but policymakers of the rightness of their opinion. Some of the implications of these findings for energy policymaking are explored.
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  • 2
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    Policy sciences 15 (1983), S. 389-394 
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  • 3
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    Policy sciences 15 (1983), S. 396-396 
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  • 4
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    Policy sciences 16 (1983), S. 1-25 
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  • 5
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    Policy sciences 16 (1983), S. 45-66 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A problem little noted in the literature on policy analysis is that analysis can interact with problems to make them different and more difficult to solve than they would be without analysis. Four varieties of interaction can be distinguished. All are rooted in the methods and assumptions of economics, the discipline that now dominates federal analysis, and particularly in its limited capacity to set policy goals. To prevent interaction, analysts would have to be able to set goals with greater independence so that aims were not swayed by the analytic process. They would need either their own theory of ends or closer political guidance.
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  • 6
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    Policy sciences 16 (1983), S. 81-95 
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  • 7
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    Policy sciences 16 (1983), S. 27-43 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Recent federal proposals and program experiments aimed at improving the innovative performance of American industry have been based on an inappropriate analytic framework. The neoclassical microeconomic analysis upon which these proposals are based emphasizes the undersupply of R & D. However, a more crucial problem in this context is the utilization of complex research results by firms and industries with low levels of in-house research expertise. This problem is a central concern of an alternative approach to the analysis of innovation, termed the information processing framework. This analytic approach, which receives empirical support from an examination of previous cooperative research programs in the United States and Great Britain and an analysis of independent consulting firms' operations, suggests that cooperative or extramural research does not function effectively as a substitute for in-house research. Public policies to encourage innovation should be attentive to the distribution, as well as the supply, of R & D.
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  • 8
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    Policy sciences 16 (1983), S. 67-79 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The dominant paradigm in evaluation research is undergoing serious challenge. This article explores the ideal role of evaluation in decisionmaking, the methodologies for conducting evaluations, the congruence between evaluation methodology and actual organizational behavior, and the relationship between evaluators and program managers. We conclude that although there are serious disparities between the ideal and the actual in each of these four areas, and especially in the congruence between evaluation methodology and organizational behavior, there is not likely to be a change in the dominant paradigm because it is difficult for practitioners to use the language and values of new organizational perspectives.
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  • 9
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    Policy sciences 16 (1983), S. 127-145 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This article argues that nuclear deterrence is a contemporary ideology (an elaborately-developed set of convictions, socio-politically central, stable over time, idealistic in intent, widely and emotionally embraced). And vulnerable. Vulnerable to the critique of the social scientist who can raise questions about the reliability of nuclear deterrence as a cornerstone. Vulnerable to the critique of the moral philosopher who can raise important questions about the propriety of nuclear deterrence and the programmatic activities it underlies.
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  • 10
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 199-276 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Several shortcomings in a major study of the world's energy system are described. The study, entitled Energy in a Finite World, resulted in widely publicized conclusions and urgent policy recommendations that were derived from detailed projections of the global energy future. A set of computer models was used to produce these projections, which are analyzed here in two ways. First, treating the models as a black box, it is shown that several principal results are effectively prescribed informally in input data that pass through the models unchanged. Second, despite claims of robustness, detailed sensitivity analysis shows that the energy supply projections are highly sensitive to perturbations in various input data. Early work that revealed this problem is not cited, and standard sensitivity tests are not provided in the study. Thus, despite the appearance of analytical rigor, the study's conclusions are evidently based on opinions rather than objective robust analysis.
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 277-320 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This article is a complement to Keepin's technical analysis of the energy models and scenarios in the IIASA global energy study, Energy in a Finite World. It analyses the role of formal global energy models in the scenarios and policy conclusions as described in the IIASA Energy System Program's (ESP) own statements. It finds inconsistencies which have confused external audiences, including modelers, as to the importance of properties of formal models in generating authority for policy conclusions. The analysis finds two contradictory images of scientific authority pervading the ESP's published accounts. This article argues that models are more symbolic vehicles for gaining authority than objective technical frameworks. Whilst this is in principle legitimate, it means that the internal processes (and not just the products) of modeling projects are a legitimate subject of public evaluation. Due attention must therefore be paid to the quality and disclosure of such processes. The institutional process of analysis reflects a particular policy style itself and constrains what policies are even conceivable. Claims to scientific analysis and definition of policy problems are themselves symptomatic of a policy framework which is biased at a deeper level than that of specific prescriptions.
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  • 12
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 321-339 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract My four years at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) have provided the opportunity for some participant observation among the Energy Tribes. The uncertainties that envelop trends in energy supply and demand are so wide that the exploratory mode (asking “What would you like the facts to be?”) turns out to be more rewarding than the adversary mode (asking “What are the facts?”). The three Energy Tribes are distinguished by their three contradictory scenarios: “Business as Usual,” “Middle of the Road” and “Radical Change Now.” Each scenario sets very different bounds on what is credible and incredible, possible and impossible, sensible and foolish, rational and irrational. More often than not, the name of any particular tribe turns out to mean simply “the people” in the language of that tribe. Each tribe, seeing itself as the repository of everything that is human, consigns all the others to a sort of unmenschionable limbo. That, in essence, is what has happened in energy policy analysis.
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  • 13
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 51-69 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This article is a summary description of the research carried out by Science Applications, Inc. (SAI) in 1980–1981 to improve methods of strategic analysis. “People-in-the-loop” gaming, with extensive support from computer simulations, automated data bases, and an interactive computer and display system are at the heart of SAI's methodology. The basic approach proposed for achieving the Department of Defense (DoD) improvement objectives is to integrate state-of-the-art techniques into an operating system for strategic warfare analysis, so as to allow DoD staffs routinely to include important factors that often are neglected. The article discusses the development of gaming as a tool of analysis, gives an overview of SAI's conceptual architecture, and summarizes the design of the supporting computer and software system.
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  • 14
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 87-95 
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  • 15
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 96-96 
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  • 16
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 97-97 
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  • 17
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 71-84 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A new method for automating political-military games as a means of analyzing strategic forces was recently developed and demonstrated by The Rand Corporation. Interest in this technique sprang from dissatisfaction with the dominant methods of analyzing strategic forces: manual political-military games and force exchange models. While each brings important capabilities to the analysis of strategic forces, neither method can independently handle all of the variables required to satisfy the current demands placed on strategic analysis. Rand drew upon the discipline used to develop models and the flexibility inherent in gaming to develop its automated wargame. The method promises significant improvement over the traditional methods of strategic analysis in breadth of input and flexibility of application.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 99-114 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A content analysis was conducted on 181 randomly sampled articles published in nine leading social policy journals from 1975 through 1980. The purpose of the study was to obtain a methodological and substantive profile of the state of the art of the policy sciences. Results indicate the existence of two prevailing types of policy analysis: quantitative-empirical and rhetorical-discussive.
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  • 19
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 137-140 
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    Policy sciences 16 (1983), S. 97-125 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Variable-wise analysis operates on columns of a typical data matrix, while case-wise analysis operates on rows. In the latter, each observation is construed in the context of all other observations on the same case, and the analysis is biased toward the definition of ideal types. This article explores the potential of case-wise policy analysis using survey data on the burden of high energy costs at the household level. The case-wise and variable-wise alternatives are associated with different policy goals and result in quite different priorities for allocating public assistance to households most in need. The article concludes with a discussion of reasons for institutionalizing the case-wise alternative through periodic data collection and reporting systems.
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    Policy sciences 16 (1983), S. 147-163 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The act of evaluation requires an expenditure of resources. In Part I of this paper, we present a simple decision tree model borrowed from operations research to provide a conceptual framework for considering whether or not to commit such resources. In Part II, once the evaluation is carried out, we address the problem of evaluating the evaluation as a vehicle for producing useful information to decisionmakers. Evaluation inputs, processes, and outcomes are defined and discussed within the context of comprehensive evaluation of evaluations.
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    Policy sciences 16 (1983), S. 165-180 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The present paper investigates the political feasibility of policies to control pollution and fishing. It first hypothesizes the following: when common or usufruct property rights are changed to full ownership, the new policy is not an unadulterated charge or auctioned license because of the implied wealth transfer. This hypothesis is “tested” by reviewing the cases in which full ownership rights have been established and is found to be consistent with the evidence. The paper then investigates the conditions that facilitate the development of full ownership rights. It concludes that proposing policies that are simple and incremental increases political feasibility, in large part because of greater understanding by fishermen and polluters.
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    Policy sciences 16 (1983), S. 181-196 
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    Policy sciences 16 (1984), S. 413-427 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract As government revenues diminish, budgetary discretions or flexibilities have similarly decreased. A pressing question is therefore how to minimize the inflexible elements or components of a budget. This article distinguishes between technical and political inflexibilities as they are reflected in the budgetary process and argues that the latter are much more difficult to correct. After drawing some examples from studies of the Dutch national budget, the article proposes the use of “reconsideration reports” as a means to alleviate the politically inflexible components of the budget, as well as a way to assess government programs.
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 13-26 
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    Notes: Abstract Policy termination is normally treated within a policy cycle view, where the termination stage is expected to follow, and be guided by, the evaluation stage. This hypothesized linking of termination with evaluation is examined here through the lenses of “reformers” and “guardians,” as they relate to the termination question of Project Renewal in Israel. Reformers see the fulfillment of Project Renewal objectives as the precondition for termination. Guardians hold that past commitments are no longer relevant. The question is not whether to evaluate, but what to evaluate; what objectives should count in making cutback and termination decisions. The close linkage posited beween programmatic evaluation and termination seems to have resolved the objectives question, to lead policy analysts to expect, if not prefer, commitment to original objectives. But insofar as we are willing to acknowledge policy termination as a political process, we must refocus our termination lenses to permit a changing set of objectives into this later stage of the policy process.
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 27-47 
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    Notes: Abstract The article provides an overview on the development and the state of policy analysis as applied public policy research in West Germany. The developmental sketch shows that, similar to the upsurge of policy research in the United States since the mid-1960s, policy research in the Federal Republic of Germany is an offspring of the reformist period of the late 1960s and early 1970s, carried by a virtual “reformers' coalition” among politicians, bureaucrats, and researchers. Due to extradisciplinary demands and also intradisciplinary shifts in research foci, public policy research became almost a “growth industry” in the course of the 1970s. The article goes on to explore which repercussions the economic crisis, the new conservative moods and majorities and the “end to reforms” has had on the state and the orientation of policy analysis. The argument is presented that, no matter which majorities have the day, policy research remains socially and politically indispensible to detect and test corridors and “niches” for public action under ever narrower financial restraints and to identify the costs and benefits of such policies in a changing world.
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 49-66 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Discrimination on grounds of race, sex, and handicap persists in many local school districts in spite of nearly twenty years of sustained attention from federal policymakers. Because litigation proceeds slowly and expensively, and because administrative attacks on discrimination have been stymied by political controversy, additional policy strategies merit careful consideration. We studied the operation of one such strategy in nine local districts: the mandatory collection of data concerning civil rights matters in schools. Data collection and reporting shaped local compliance with civil rights laws in four ways: by threatening local officials with future penalties, by providing political ammunition to constituencies that care about civil rights, by allowing local districts to learn about their own performance, and by framing school practices in ways that heighten awareness about equity. In this policy setting, data collection has advantages and disadvantages that complement those of other enforcement strategies. In this and other policy settings, data collection has power to elicit compliance even in the absence of conventional enforcement.
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 89-92 
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 93-95 
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    Notes: Abstract The emphasis currently placed on citizen participation in planning results in part from the recognition that planning requires judgments that have both value and technical components. This article describes a case study of a citizen participation process in which planners' judgments, rather than the judgments of the members of a citizens' task force, seemed to dictate the outcome. Although citizens were supposed to be influential in the policy analysis, they were, in effect, excluded from a meaningful role in the process. The analysis was actually guided by planners' supposedly technical judgments. Those judgments had important value implications, however, and those implications were not made clear to the citizens' task force. Examples are given of judgments made by planners at each stage of the analysis and the value components of those judgments are discussed. In each example, the judgments resulted in elimination of alternatives, selection of information, or integration of information. Two examples of methods of citizen participation which can increase the influence of citizens' judgments are also described.
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 99-99 
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 98-98 
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 101-121 
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    Notes: Abstract The military retirement system provides an immediate, lifetime, inflation-protected annuity to personnel who complete 20 or more years of service. The cost of this system has risen substantially in the past 15 years, and the system's actuarial costs now comprise almost one-third of total military manpower costs. Because of its importance in the total military compensation system, the military retirement system exerts a significant influence on the age structure of the force and on personnel turnover patterns. This article evaluates the relative efficiency of the current retirement system by comparing it with two recently proposed alternatives, one by a presidential commission and one by the Department of Defense. It estimates the impact of these proposed alternatives on the military personnel force structure and on manpower costs. It is concluded that these alternatives would provide a force as capable as today's force at significantly lower cost.
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 123-139 
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    Notes: Abstract Risk is the focal topic in the management of many activities and technologies. For that management to be successful, an explicit and accepted definition of the term “risk” is essential. Creation of that definition is a political act, expressing the definers' values regarding the relative importance of different possible adverse consequences for a particular decision. Those values, and with them the definition of risk, can change with changes in the decisionmaker, the technologies considered, or the decision problem. After a review of the sources of controversy in defining risk, a general framework is developed, showing how these value issues can be systematically addressed. As an example, the approach is applied to characterizing the risks of six competing energy technologies, the relative riskeness of which depends upon the particular definition used.
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 141-151 
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    Notes: Abstract Technology and human behavior can influence the effectiveness of safety policies. In the field of traffic safety, rational-choice theorists postulate that automobile safety devices induce increased driver risk taking. Such behavioral responses could partly or totally nullify the lifesaving potential of governmental safety rules for new cars, such as the crashworthiness standards adopted by the United States in the late 1960s and early 1970s. This study explores the behavioral-response hypothesis in the context of a car-vintage model of U.S. car occupant death rates. Results from the model imply that U.S. standards have reduced the occupant death rate by roughly 30 percent, a finding consistent with minimal driver response to safety devices. The study provides support for the technological approach to safety policy and suggests that policymakers might consider adopting additional crashworthiness regulations, such as some form of passive-restraint program.
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 153-178 
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    Notes: Abstract This article discusses whether U.S. society should invest in large-scale coal port development and examines specifically financing the deep-draft dredging of coal ports on the East and/or Gulf Coasts (Baltimore, Hampton Roads, Mobile, and New Orleans) so that fully loaded, large coal-carrying colliers can export coal to Western Europe. By assuming a society-wide perspective, no costs and benefits are attributed to various parties. Although the multifaceted nature of the coal port issue is acknowledged, the core of this study is a large number of different simulations. Each simulation “optimizes” the United States-Western Europe coal trade for a given demand, ocean transportation cost structure, and cost of capital. This relatively simple model focuses on the key tradeoff: the cost of dredging versus lower ocean transportation costs. The study supports those recommending caution in coal port development. The most striking conclusion is the robustness of two solutions - no dredging or dredge only Hampton Roads - depending on the assumptions. Our conclusions also generally do not support simultaneously dredging all deep-draft options, the concurrent dredging of more than one port, or dredging either of the Gulf ports before the two East Coast ports.
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 179-191 
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    Notes: Abstract This article argues that the so-called crisis in evaluation is phenomenological rather than empirical. That is, our statements about evaluation, the presentational strategies used to define our expertise, and the ceremonies surrounding the dissemination of results are more problematic than what it is we actually do. If we can avoid calling attention to imaginary wolves, people might well listen when we do have something to say.
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 193-195 
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    Policy sciences 17 (1984), S. 197-197 
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    Policy sciences 14 (1982), S. 331-345 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper proposes four criteria to evaluate the implementation of U.S. federal grant agency project processing procedures. The criteria - anonymity, non-perversity, implementation of program goals and adequacy - go beyond the arguments over rational-analytic versus incremental policymaking by suggesting criteria which both models can meet. Examples of two federal programs' selection procedures are used to illustrate the applicability of, and divergency from, the proposed criteria. The paper concludes with a discussion of the factors important to administrators in selecting project processing procedures.
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    Policy sciences 14 (1982), S. 365-378 
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    Notes: Abstract Public policies represent tradeoffs between values. Policy analysts should see one of their main tasks as identifying the nature of such tradeoffs, both as a general phenomenon and as they vary between specific policy areas. In this article five basic values of higher education are identified: equality, excellence, autonomy, accountability and efficiency. Their occurrence in Swedish higher education is analyzed, as well as the specific tradeoffs arrived at within the framework of that policy.
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    Policy sciences 14 (1982), S. 309-329 
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    Notes: Abstract Any piece of policy analysis must be appropriate to the context of its intended use. Social science often fails as policy analysis due to insensitivity to context. This paper explores a number of different modes of policy analysis to determine the circumstances in which the application of each is appropriate. It is argued that each mode is appropriate only under a fairly limited set of conditions; many of the problems policy analysis encounters are a result of attempts to apply a mode outside its niche. Greater use should be made of what is developed here as a hermeneutic model of policy analysis, appropriate in a residual set of conditions which none of the traditional models of policy analysis copes with adequately.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 1-2 
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    Policy sciences 14 (1982), S. 379-383 
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 46-46 
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 47-50 
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    Notes: Abstract In an effort to improve the strategic assessment capabilities of the U.S. Department of Defense, contractors were asked to integrate advanced wargaming techniques with other analytic approaches. This paper sets out the deficiences in past and current analysis methods which the project sponsor wished to have the contractors address.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 3-21 
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    Notes: Abstract During 1975–1980, U.S. solar policy emphasized financial incentives to potential purchasers as the primary means of stimulating the introduction and spread of residential solar heating systems. This article examines the importance of nonfinancial factors in decisions to purchase residential solar heating systems during these early stages of market penetration and discusses the implications these factors have for policy design. Drawing upon research on the diffusion of innovations, on the effectiveness of income tax credits for solar heating systems, and on solar energy system purchasing decisions themselves, the argument is developed that nonfinancial factors such as system reliability, warranty protection, environmental concerns, adequate information about system costs and performance, and confidence in system suppliers and installers are at least as important as initial system cost to early purchasers. These considerations were not reflected in U.S. solar policy to the extent warranted. As a result, that policy failed to promote the balanced development of all elements essential to a viable residential solar heating industry and probably failed to alter the intentions of many prospective solar system purchasers. The reasons U.S. policymakers were relatively insensitive to nonfinancial factors are discussed and an alternative strategy for increasing the rate of market penetration of residential solar heating systems is offered.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 85-86 
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 115-135 
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    Notes: Abstract The preceding evaluation of the policy sciences by Schneider, Stevens, and Tornatzky is based on a rather narrow conception of science that emphasizes quantitative and rigorous methods. It overlooks the limitations of such methods, as revealed by the results of applications, and certain adjustments to these limitations. The latter include the adoption of more modest but realizable aspirations and the synthesis of diverse methods-qualitative as well as quantitative, exploratory as well as confirmatory. It also overlooks differences and trends in epistemological preconceptions that underlie the conduct of research and the interpretation of research results. This article reviews the relevant literature in the hope that it might eventually contribute to more enlightened evaluations of the emerging discipline.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 183-194 
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 141-165 
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    Notes: Abstract Beginning in the mid-1970s, fiscal limitation laws, shrinking revenue bases in older cities, and reductions in state and federal grants all have reduced the resources available to carry out the functions of local government. What do these changes portend for the amount of innovation in local government, the types of innovations that are introduced, and the processes of introduction? This paper examines these questions by reviewing the literature on factors related to innovation in public service agencies and reorienting its implications in the new fiscal environment. We conclude that on the whole the innovative process in the public sector has fallen on hard times. Yet, we identify those factors that a creative, innovative administrator can use to advantage in a period of fiscal constraints to bring about innovation. We also identify types of innovations that are likely to succeed.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1982), S. 167-181 
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    Notes: Abstract With the increasing use of complex computer models for high-level policy decisionmaking, the problem of correctly interpreting and communicating model results becomes a more general concern. This paper traces misconceptions about the use of models to the existence of different conceptions of the term “model.” Policy models are quite often less theory-based than models in the traditional disciplines, especially in cases where the policy models deal with the long-term developments of sociotechnical systems. The authors examine the use of an example of one such model. Generalising from the authors' experiences in other fields of application, e.g., global modeling, the problems of interpreting model results are discussed. The proper use of future-oriented policy models is clarified by the introduction of typologies implying distinctions, e.g., between forecasting, “what-if,” and learning models, and between different “levels” of results, viz. model outcomes, model inferences and policy-issue oriented interpretations.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1983), S. 195-203 
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    Notes: Abstract The introductory essay to this special issue on Governance in Crisis has three objectives. Firstly, it tries to show that current dilemmas of governance in advanced industrial Western nations can be analysed within the common framework of the thesis of the withering of the modern welfare state. Secondly, it argues that the policy sciences have a legacy of problem-oriented and value-conscious scholarship, bestowed by Lasswell and others, which can and should be taken up in the analysis of the comprehensive problems of governance confronting advanced industrial nations. Thirdly, it considers the requirement that the policy sciences go significantly beyond a managerial perspective and take up the timely but challenging task of linking up problem-orientation to contextuality. Contributions to this issue are seen to constitute a promising step in this direction.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1983), S. 205-224 
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    Notes: Abstract The late 1970s saw the beginnings of a “scissors crisis” in public finance, i.e., a growing divergence between the expansion of government revenues and the increase in government expenditures. Unless strong measures are taken, the 1980s threaten to become the age of mega-deficits. The sluggish growth of public receipts and the buoyant development of public outlays are linked to a number of structural tendencies in the economies of the industrialized world. Efforts to close the gap have included both tax increases and expenditure cuts, but as more and more governments gain experience with the phenomenon of “fiscal cannibalism,” i.e., that taxes eat up each other, the main thrust of the counter-offensive has come to be directed against the growth of public spending. Current strategies to reinforce expenditures control include such elements as global norms, new indexing techniques, new methods of decentralizing hard choices, better methods of cash management, well-balanced policy packages, and incentives especially designed to stimulate cutbacks and policy termination.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1983), S. 247-268 
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    Notes: Abstract In practice many descriptions of the policy process appear to be more or less related to two main features of policymaking and implementing systems. (1) A government's approach to problem solving in terms of either an anticipatory or a reactive approach. (2) A government's relationship to other actors in the policymaking and implementing process. The interaction between these two features is defined as “policy style.” In the British case, the policy style is best characterized as bureaucratic accommodation, with five overlapping features - sectorization, clientelism, consultation and negotiation, the institutionalization of compromise, and the development of exchange relationships. This policy style, which is typical of much of Western Europe, leads to the overcrowding of the policy process and makes policy change more difficult.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1983), S. 305-305 
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    Policy sciences 15 (1983), S. 289-304 
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    Notes: Abstract In the United States the Reagan Administration has proposed a number of policy initiatives which have the effect of decentralizing governmental services. The services, until recently, had increasingly become the responsibility of the federal (i.e., centralized) government. This paper inquires as to the possible effects of such decentralization tendencies. Drawing upon approaches advocated by the policy sciences and futures studies, the analysis weighs goals, trends, and conditions to propose a set of projections and policies.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1983), S. 306-306 
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    Policy sciences 15 (1983), S. 306-306 
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    Policy sciences 15 (1983), S. 307-324 
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    Notes: Abstract From 1974 to 1980, many conservation and renewable energy policies were adopted at the state level in the United States. Some states were particularly active in enacting such policies while others were totally inactive. The variation in state policy activity is only modestly related to the states' past policy innovation traditions and conservation/renewable energy opportunities. Differences in energy vulnerability, and the relative hardship imposed by the energy crisis, have apparently had even less impact on the adoption pattern. These weak or insignificant relationships are typical of other efforts to explain state energy policy variations and are attributed to six qualitative factors: Federal preemption and inconsistency, ambivalent public opinion, conflicting values, lack of information on state energy conditions, and ignorance of the impacts of renewable energy and conservation policies. The findings identify several actions to increase sensitivity toward state energy conditions in policymaking.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1983), S. 325-343 
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    Notes: Abstract The Federal Photovoltaics Utilization Program(FPUP) was established in 1978 with the belief that getting photovoltaic cells into the market was a “bootstrap problem” - one of eliminating market uncertainties through federal procurements to enable investments in improved production processes. A lack of clearly defined program objectives and expected results, however, was translated into continuing difficulties in implementation. Using the FPUP experience as an example, an alternative model of photovoltaic procurement is proposed which is simultaneously more structured (in that greater analytical control is used in selecting applications to fund) and more adaptive (in that continuous feedback is built in). A discussion of such a framework and sequential evaluation design is followed by some comments pertaining to the future of other commercialization efforts.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1983), S. 367-387 
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    Notes: Abstract A contextual theoretical strategy should be pursued to overcome past deficiencies in the study of organizational innovation. The strategy is likely to lead to greater success in efforts to promote innovation. The heart of this strategy is to define the types of innovation processes at work and the contexts in which they operate. There are at least three innovation processes at work which operate in contexts defined by organizational and environmental characteristics and by the type of innovation under consideration.
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    Policy sciences 15 (1983), S. 345-365 
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    Notes: Abstract Environmental mediation is a new and innovative attempt to overcome the policy stalemates that frequently hinder effective environmental policymaking. It brings together environmentalists, business groups, government officials, and a neutral mediator in an attempt to negotiate a binding settlement to a specific controversy. This essay describes this approach, discusses its advantages over more traditional dispute resolution processes, and explains how it is able to produce acceptable agreements in such a difficult policy area.
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    Policy sciences 11 (1980), S. 235-240 
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    Policy sciences 11 (1980), S. 241-261 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper examines the role of foreign assistance organizations in promoting the diffusion of renewable energy systems to the rural sectors of the world. The first section discusses the background to the current energy problems of much of the developing world - spiraling world prices for fossil fuels, a lack of indigenous reserves of petroleum, and rapidly expanding populations - and the results of these factors. The major portion of the article examines the current approaches of the foreign assistance community to an alternation solution to the energy problem of developing countries - the introduction, adaptation, and diffusion of renewable energy technologies. The final section of the article examines the impacts of the foreign assistance procedures on the acceptance of these new technologies. It argues for the importance of local participation, for technology adaptation to local customs, traditions and needs, and for the sharing of information developed by donor organizations on the performance of renewable energy systems in the field.
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    Policy sciences 11 (1980), S. 285-307 
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    Notes: Abstract This essay proposes an analytic framework to compare the development and commercialization of a number of advanced civilian technologies. This framework emphasizes the multiple institutional actors and their objectives that such technology developments manifest and reflect. The construct is then illustrated in the context of the development and diffusion of the nuclear power reactor in six nations. The major policy observations deal with the finding that there are distinct developmental stages; furthermore, government policies had best recognize these stages with their particular requirements, so that policies can be formulated which are appropriate to these conditions.
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    Policy sciences 11 (1980), S. 263-284 
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    Notes: Abstract This article's purpose is to examine the role of institutions in the innovation and dissemination of advanced technology in the international policy arena, focusing specifically upon multinational cooperation in the acquisition of advanced technology weapons. The analysis examines interrelationships among different national public policy processes and compares cross-nationally the role of governmental and non-governmental organizations in policy formulation. An analytic framework for comparative analysis of organizational objectives is developed and then applied to four cases of multinational cooperation. Based upon the results of this comparative analysis, the article's conclusion sets forth some observations potentially applicable to a policy aimed at furthering transatlantic cooperation in particular, and more generally, to public policy and technology.
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    Policy sciences 11 (1980), S. 309-328 
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    Notes: Abstract Conventional indirect measures of technological change in industry are shown to mislead analysts of the building industry. The result is a continuing popular and academic misreading of the industry. The diffusion of 14 innovations in the industry are measured empirically rather than inferentially and differences in diffusion rates are related to the industry's “management” of those innovations. A joint public-private strategy for managing future innovations is suggested.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. vi 
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    Policy sciences 11 (1980), S. 329-341 
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    Notes: Abstract This article describes the decision-making process that is involved in introducing innovations to local public organizations. It defines six stages of the process of innovating in the public sector, as well as the four sets of actors involved in the process. The article is based on the findings of a study conducted for the National Science Foundation, entitled Adoption and Utilization of Urban Technology: A Decision-Making Process (1976). In this study, twenty case histories of urban innovation in Syracuse and Rochester, New York, provided an in-depth data base on decision-making with respect to new technology in the local public sector. The findings in these twenty cases are cited, together with an analysis of the factors that lead to success or failure. The role of urban entrepreneurship and coalition-building and its vital impact on the introduction of new technology is also examined. Some previous misconceptions regarding innovation in urban government are revealed in the conclusions. Also, the skills of key actors, especially bureaucratic entrepreneurs, that are necessary for succesful local innovation are depicted.
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    Policy sciences 11 (1980), S. 343-356 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper reviews the changes in federal government involvement in medical technology in the pastdecade, from prior reliance upon non-governmental decision-making about development, diffusion, anduse, to increasingly centralized decision-making. The case of end-stage renal disease offers contrastsbetween the past and present. The cases of Karen Ann Quinlan and CT scanning indicate the source ofpresent scepticism about benefits and costs of medical technology. Current federal involvement in medicaltechnology decision-making, through health planning, medical device regulation, and increased formalanalysis of safety, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness, is described. Though increased federal involvementin medical technology stems from a desire to compensate for failures of the medical marketplace, theimmediate effect is to place greater decision-making reliance upon formal analysis, bureaucracy, legalprocedure, and politics. It is unclear whether the result of increased federal involvement will producebeneficial outcomes.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 1-25 
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    Notes: Abstract A number of reports have been published over the past few years documenting the evidence of decline in the northeastern U.S.A. and the simultaneous migration of industry to the U.S. “Sunbelt.” (Academy for Contemporary Problems, 1977; Sale, 1975; Sternlieb and Hughes, 1975). In developing appropriate recommendations to planners, such studies invariably urge that localities or regions facing industrial out-migration arrest this activity by making themselves more suitable and attractive (Council for Northeast Economic Action [CNEA], 1977a) within the framework of a number of characteristic strategies. We propose to examine critically some of the traditional strategies recommended by these reports.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 41-60 
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    Notes: Abstract Empirical policy analysis can often contribute information relevant to public policy-making that affects different kinds of social integration. Policy analyses concerning social integration in a variety of settings face common analytical issues and potential statistical problems. As an example of this type of empirical analysis, this paper uses survey and census data from the Detroit metropolitan area to analyze the effect of neighborhood racial composition on residents' satisfaction with their neighborhoods.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 27-39 
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    Notes: Abstract A basic tenet of the “new conservatism” in political economy is that government policies frequently lead to unintended consequences which may offset the benefits of the policy. Auto safety legislation may be a case in point. As the first country to make the wearing of seat belts compulsory, Australia is highly suitable as a case study. Traffic accident casualties were regressed on six independent variables for the pre-seat belt period 1949–71. The equations were then used to predict casualties for the period 1972–77, using the actual values of the independent variables. In the aggregate, predicted occupant casualties were higher than the actual rates, whereas non-occupant casualties were underpredicted by the equations. An additional test, using a dummy variable to predict the effect of seat belts, supported these conclusions. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that drivers respond to a reduction in risk by increasing driving intensity, shifting some of the welfare cost of auto safety legislation on to non-occupants, whose casualty rates are higher than they would have been in the absence of seat belt legislation.
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    Notes: Abstract Social impact assessment (SIA) is defined and related to other policy analysis techniques. Conceptual problems in conducting SIA are reviewed. Various SIA methods are identified and evaluated for their probable effectiveness in assessing regional plans. Regional planning conditions are identified and constraints to, and demands on, SIA are examined. A strategy for SIA is proposed which uses public inputs during cyclical planning iterations for efficiently identifying and assessing the most important social impacts.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. ii 
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 105-112 
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 83-104 
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    Notes: Abstract Decision making stituations, particularly those involving societal issues, can pose very complex problems for practitioners and investigators from a broad spectrum of disciplines. In this paper, we present theoretical constructs and an organized general framework for studying such complex decision processes. The postulated facets are used in the construction of several hypotheses. Empirical evidence is presented which supports the hypotheses and argues for the viability of the proposed conceptual framework.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 113-129 
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    Notes: Abstract In considering the efficacy of program evaluation researchers have not put language in proper perspective. They have not acknowledged that information gained from applied research is partly determined by situational factors, that language is selective and goal-oriented, justifying activity as often as it describes it, or that some important action cannot be expressed. The importance of language distinguishes applied social assessment from the natural science models of research from which it was derived. Examples from a wide range of applied situations are used to illustrate that, as an anticedent-consequent model of objective quantified assessment, evaluation is also inconsistent with the complex, resourceful, emergent social processes it is intended to measure. Three alternatives to quantification are discussed to illustrate interventions that may be made when the disadvantages of program evaluation outweigh the advantages.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 131-145 
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    Notes: Abstract Politicians often appeal to moral principles as a least-cost method of enforcing their policy demands. To do so effectively, they must understand how such principles fit into ordinary people's decision functions. Here I distinguish three ways for formally representing moral principles. One reduces morality to enlightened self-interest, denying that morality has any special place in the decision calculus. Another, while acknowledging that people do internalize moral principles per se, enters them into utility functions as just another consumption good. Truly strong moral principles, however, are best represented by a third model of seriously held moral principles which must be kept formally apart from mundane considerations. Such principles are as precarious as they are powerful. Policy-makers who want to tap them must respect the formalisms that make them strong, most typically by shielding moral principles from contamination by egoistic impulses.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 175-192 
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    Notes: Abstract For ordinary citizens, political life is increasingly characterized by a request for a check, not a trip to the polls. Yet for all their frequency, very little is known about help-seeking encounters. This article asks the question “Who gets to the agency door?” or, more formally, “How do individuals decide to apply for public social benefits or services, and what does that decision signify?” Three topics are explored. The first defines help-seeking as a type of political participation. The second conceptualizes the process by which individuals decide to seek help from public social agencies. The third presents an agenda for research and action on the politics of help-seeking.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 147-174 
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    Notes: Abstract This exploration of citizen viewpoints on energy policy uses a clustering technique to analyze 101 Q-sorts obtained from a diverse national sample in April 1979. The results indicate an approximate consensus. The predominant themes in the core viewpoint and three peripheral variations are resistance to energy price increases and concern for public health, safety, and the environment, particularly in connection with nuclear power plants. There is also widespread distrust of the oil and gas industry, local utilities, the President, government generally, and energy experts, coupled with disbelief, distrust, disaffection, and undertones of moral outrage. The existence of this approximate consensus is less surprising than the absence of shared viewpoints that are independent or opposed to it. Individual interpretations of the main themes are explored through unstructured, follow-up interviews with the best representatives of the core viewpoint. The evolution of shared viewpoints has been shaped by specific events such as Three Mile Island and by recurring events, particularly chronic energy price increases and intermittent shortages, and the ongoing national debate on energy policy. In our interpretation, the social tension and personal insecurities accumulated as a result of the energy situation are potentially destabilizing. H owever, the potential for rapid change in citizen viewpoints has so far been blocked by perceptual and political rigidities that underlie an approximate stalemate in Washington. The concluding section presents some suggestions for dealing with the perceptual, political, and moral aspects of the situation.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 215-236 
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    Notes: Abstract This review essay applies academic and operational research community criteria of evaluation to a project founded on events/interaction data. The project, the Early Warning and Monitoring System (EWAMS), is built on solid academic research but also takes into account requirements of the operational community. Differences in form and content from typical academic events/interaction research have been instrumental in putting the EWAMS into operational use.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 237-244 
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 193-214 
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    Notes: Abstract This article focuses on the interaction between local-national relations and the implementation of welfare policy in Israel. It studies the administrative linkages between different levels of governmental jurisdictions involved in the implementing of certain policies of the Ministry of Welfare. It seeks to understand their impact on the original goals and programs of the national government and on actual services provided at the municipal level. These linkages include the arrangements for provision, funding, employment, regulations, and inspection. Without denying the importance of other explanations, the article emphasizes the significance of administrative linkages for understanding welfare policy and practices. In effect, the present study evaluates the extent to which the administrative linkages enable the national government to implement its policies on the one hand, and local authorities to influence national policies and programs on the other. The findings and analysis of administrative linkages suggest four conclusions. First contrary to Government policy the welfare system involving the Ministry, local municipalities and their agencies, is very inegalitarian; services are neither uniform nor adjusted to need. Second, the administrative linkages maximize local output and undermine the ability of the Ministry to implement its policies. Third, it is questionable whether the Israeli government can use its present Welfare Ministry to cope with major aspects of the problem. Fourth, it appears that the operations of the Israeli Welfare Ministry system are more similar to the federal than unitary model.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 245-264 
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    Notes: Abstract Government policy toward domestic crude oil production has been justified in the past in reference to economic theory of regulation. Regulatory approaches have depended upon prevailing attitudes toward the price of crude oil. Imposition of price controls in 1971 represented a watershed in this area, although the future course of regulation remains uncertain.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 265-282 
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    Notes: Abstract After defining scientific forecasting, the crucial role of assumptions in such forecasts is explicated. This is followed by a discussion of the representations upon which forecasting systems are based. Six variables are then introduced to capture differences in socio-political forecasting circumstances: level of detail, accuracy, agreement on problem representation, robustness-brittleness, number of variables and interdependencies, and disturbance. A categorization of forecasting approaches - expert based, Bayesian, extremal statistical, and rule based - is offered. These forecasting approaches are then cross-referenced with the forecasting circumstances to produce recommendations for choosing an appropriate forecasting technique in a given policy circumstance. Most examples in the article are drawn from the realm of foreign policy and international politics, and the cross-referencing section concentrates on foreign energy policy examples.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 315-331 
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    Notes: Abstract A system dynamics model of the dynamics of special education reimbursement policies, based upon work completed in Massachusetts, is presented. The model is used to analyze the causes of unstable growth in special education costs and to propose policy options for controlling such costs. Because of an elaborated ability to represent the behaviors of local school districts, the system dynamics technology was found to be ideally suited to this type of policy analysis. However, the existence of the elaborated feedback structure would make it extremely cumbersome to use the system dynamics model to project annual costs on a locality-by-locality basis, such projections being the principal strength of traditional education finance models. This trade-off between two modeling technologies suggests that analysts must carefully match their audience, purpose, and modeling technology to attain “best” analyses.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 301-315 
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    Notes: Abstract The reform of educational finance systems is underway in various states. The results of the reforms in early states can act as guides to the design of new finance systems in other states. Based on recent experiences in New Jersey, the authors discuss the role that policy analysis can play in aiding the school finance reform process. The results of the New Jersey reform suggest that the policy analyst must understand the behavioral responses of school districts to new aid and must take into account likely changes in the underlying economic conditions of local areas if he or she hopes to accurately assess the impacts of alternative finance proposals.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 283-299 
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    Notes: Abstract Scientism so pervades our society that its methodological arm, the research approach, is assumed to be de rigeur for establishing policies and solving problems. Using the research approach, modern disciplinary developments created many techniques, such as operations research/management science/systems analysis (OR/MS/SA), ostensibly for finding solutions to pressing organizational and societal problems. This paper's emphasis on scientism and the research approach is deliberate - these concepts are the “Weltanschauung” of OR/MS/SA, the major “systems concepts” available. Their analysis, modeling of what exists, quantification, and reductionism are assumed to be the beauty of their logic and their only rationality. Public planning also assumes that analysis, modeling, quantification, and reductionism are the fundamental parts of problem solving and policy setting. This paper shows how this research approach and the unstated assumption that it must be used when establishing policies or solving problems now loom as the problems, and may be the biggest stumbling blocks to finding the good solutions society needs.
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    Policy sciences 12 (1980), S. 333-353 
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    Notes: Abstract A content analysis is made of arms control arguments made in the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and its Subcommittee on Disarmament by five groups: government scientists, academic scientists, politicians, military persons and citizens. It is found that government scientists are closer in their argumentation to other government persons than to their fellow scientists. It is argued that access rather than professionalism is the important independent variable to consider in predicting policy-related behavior.
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    Policy sciences 13 (1981), S. 1-7 
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  • 93
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    Notes: Abstract In recent years, there has been growing interest in the phenomenon of an apparent population distribution reversal in the United States. This paper examines the characteristics of migrants participating in such moves between 1969 and 1977, based on data from a longitudinal nationwide household sample survey conducted by the University of Michigan. The data show that the amount of ruralward migration outweighs that of urbanward migration. While the ruralward migration was particularly prevalent in the Northeast, the direction of migration in the South was predominantly urbanward. Ruralward migrants appeared to be young single people and young married people without children, as well as stable families. The “most ruralward” migrants tended to be from the most highly urban environments. This new pattern of migration is independent of both “white suburban flight” and the “sun-belt” phenomenon. The findings suggest an important societal reorganization towards a newer “post-industrial” and less urban population distribution.
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    Policy sciences 13 (1981), S. 9-24 
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    Notes: Abstract The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) forced the Atomic Energy Commission, and subsequently the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, to weigh costs and benefits of proposed nuclear power plants. This paper examines how the Commission has developed a framework for decision making in response to the NEPA mandate. Its principal conclusions are that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is not interested in being in the business of assessing power needs, and that regulating need by electricity source is counterproductive. If the question of power needs should be addressed at all, the paper argues that a more general framework should be used which would apply to all new facilities. Such a framework would allow a utility to build the plant of its choice, subject to satisfaction of existing regulations, after it is determined that sufficient demand exists.
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    Policy sciences 13 (1981), S. 51-73 
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    Notes: Abstract Recent efforts at sentencing reform have led to the consideration or enactment of new sentencing structures, including mandatory-minimum sentences, flat-time sentences, and sentencing guidelines. There is a clear need for estimates of the impacts that new sentencing laws would have on sentencing practice and on corrections programs, both as an informational input during legislative debate and as a basis for planning once a particular law is enacted. This study develops a methodology for estimating the impacts of alternative sentencing policies on prison populations. The methodology is demonstrated with an estimation of the impacts on the Pennsylvania state prison system of a mandatory-minimum sentencing bill which was considered by the Pennsylvania legislature.
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    Policy sciences 13 (1981), S. 25-50 
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    Notes: Abstract Consistent choice in an inconsistent world requires processes both for rational calculation and effective control. The budgetary process incorporates both of these functions. However, students of public sector budgeting tend either to ignore budget execution or to view the time expended by budgeteers on the execution of budgets - as opposed to their construction - as a gross misallocation of resources. In the authors' opinion this perspective - or lack thereof - seriously undervalues the control function and the budgeteer's role in preventing control loss. At the same time, the authors acknowledge that budgeteers frequently misuse the controls at their disposal and that in certain cases (i.e., where competitive supply of a public service is justified and in effect) expenditure controls are redundant and serve no real purpose. Budget execution is primarily concerned with two kinds of expenditure controls, allotment controls and fund reports, and is supported by position controls. The immediate purpose of these controls is to insure that purchases are limited to the amounts and purposes specified in the budget act. However, given the typical relationship between the budget agency and the operating bureau, we argue that their ultimate function is to prevent the bureau from distorting or concealing cost and production information so as to increase its bargaining power, thereby permitting the budget office to insure that the preferences of the state are at least approximately met. Performance standards and control rules also serve to avoid inconsistency in the dealings between the budgeteer and the bureau and to stabilize expectations about the ground rules for bargaining and the likely outcomes of the bargaining process so as to reduce the costs of uncertainty to both sides.
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    Policy sciences 13 (1981), S. 117-123 
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    Policy sciences 13 (1981), S. 75-98 
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    Notes: Abstract Since 1970, over half the states have reformed their school finance systems with improvement in equity of revenue and resource distributions as one of the stated goals. While numerous studies evaluating the equity effects of these often expensive reforms have been undertaken, there remains much disagreement about how to assess the reforms' impacts. In this article, we address the problems of measuring equity effects with an emphasis on the need for multiple definitions and an understanding of the value judgments inherent in all measures of equity. Next, three methodologies that have been used to assess the equity impacts of school finance reform are critiqued. Finally, in an effort to correct shortcomings of each, a fourth methodology is developed and new empirical evidence on the effects of reform based on that methodology are presented. The article concludes with observations about the importance of the choice of a methodology with which to evaluate complex policy changes that involve value judgments about what is fair, just, and equitable.
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    Policy sciences 13 (1981), S. 99-115 
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    Notes: Abstract Frequently in public policy analysis, researchers and decisionmakers confront the problems of building, testing, and interpreting a regression equation. This paper examines these general problems in the context of the efficiency of secondary schools in Karachi, Pakistan. It displays some of the tools of exploratory data analysis in constructing a regression model in the absence of a convincing, a priori specification. A simple and useful technique is presented for testing, after numerous statistical explorations, the model one has constructed. Finally, the paper takes seriously the differences between the policymaker's questions and the statistician's, providing some guidelines of general relevance for the interpretation of regression-based studies of public policy.
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    Policy sciences 13 (1981), S. 125-138 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper reviews some of the basic concepts of cost and risk-benefit analysis in the context of toxic chemical regulation and discusses several critical complexities inherent in the practical application of this methodology. The broad qualitative use of risk-benefit analysis can be an important aid to the decision-making process. It is concluded, however, that the full-scale incorporation of a rigorous form of risk-benefit analysis into the regulatory process is inappropriate at this time and could have significant and unintended consequences.
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