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  • Artikel  (2)
  • 05.01. Computational geophysics  (2)
  • Nature P. G.  (1)
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    Monitoring soil radon during the 2016-2017 central Italy sequence in light of seismicity (2020)
    Nature P. G.
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-10-16
    Beschreibung: The radioactive nature of radon makes it a powerful tracer for fluid movements in the crust, and a potentially effective marker to study processes connected with earthquakes preparatory phase. To explore the feasibility of using soil radon variations as earthquakes precursor, we analyse the radon concentration data recorded by two stations located close to the epicentre of the strongest mainshock (Mw 6.5 on October 30, 2016) of the seismic sequence which affected central Italy from August 2016. The two stations CTTR and NRCA operate in the framework of the permanent Italian Radon monitoring Network and recorded almost continuously since 2012 and 2016, respectively, the latter being installed just after the first mainshock of the sequence (Mw 6.0 on August 24, 2016). An increase of radon emanation is clearly visible about 2 weeks before the Mw 6.5 event on both the time series, more pronounced on NRCA, nearer to the epicentre, suggesting the possibility of a direct association with the earthquake occurrence. An independently developed detection algorithm aimed at highlighting the connections between radon emission variations and major earthquakes occurrence succeeds in forecasting the Mw 6.5 mainshock on NRCA time series. The resulting time advance of the alarm is consistent with that obtained using a Bayesian approach to compute the a posteriori probability of multiple change points on the radon time series of NRCA. Moreover, it is in agreement with the delay time which maximizes the correlation between radon and seismic anomalies. Applying the detection algorithm to CTTR time series returns alarms for both the Mw 6.0 event, with epicentre closer to this station, and the stronger Mw 6.5 event, but with a higher number of false detections. Finally, we found that a preliminary correction of the bias introduced by variations of meteorological parameters does not affect our main finding of an increase in radon concentration before the major mainshocks. Our study confirms that, although much work is still needed, a monitoring approach based on a permanent dense network is crucial for making radon time series analysis an effective complement to traditional seismological tools.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: id 13137
    Beschreibung: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio e sorveglianza
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Schlagwort(e): radon ; monitoring network ; seismicity ; precursor ; 05.01. Computational geophysics
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
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    Energy threshold changes in volcanic activity at Mt. Etna (Italy) inferred from volcanic tremor (2022)
    Springer Nature
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-10-28
    Beschreibung: From the 2010s on, pattern classification has proven an effective method for flagging alerts of volcano unrest before eruptive activity at Mt. Etna, Italy. The analysis has been applied online to volcanic tremor data, and has supported the surveillance activity of the volcano that provides timely information to Civil Protection and other authorities. However, after declaring an alert, no one knows how long the volcano unrest will last and if a climactic eruptive activity will actually begin. These are critical aspects when considering the effects of a prolonged state of alert. An example of longstanding unrest is related to the Christmas Eve eruption in 2018, which was heralded by several months of almost continuous Strombolian activity. Here, we discuss the usage of thresholds to detect conditions leading to paroxysmal activity, and the challenges associated with defining such thresholds, leveraging a dataset of 52 episodes of lava fountains occurring in 2021. We were able to identify conservative settings regarding the thresholds, allowing for an early warning of impending paroxysm in almost all cases (circa 85% for the first 4 months in 2021, and over 90% for the whole year). The chosen thresholds also proved useful to predict that a paroxysmal activity was about to end. Such information provides reliable numbers for volcanologists for their assessments, based on visual information, which may not be available in bad weather or cloudy conditions.
    Beschreibung: Project IMPACT (A multidisciplinary Insight on the kinematics and dynamics of Magmatic Processes at Mt. Etna Aimed at identifying preCursor phenomena and developing early warning sysTems). IMPACT belongs to the Progetti Dipartimentali INGV [DIP7], https://progetti.ingv.it/index.php/it/progetti-dipartimentali/vulcani/impact#informazioni-sul-progetto.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 17895
    Beschreibung: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Schlagwort(e): Volcanic tremor ; Volcano monitoring ; Pattern recognition ; Self Organizing maps ; Fuzzy clustering ; Mt. Etna ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 05.01. Computational geophysics
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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    ARTIKEL (OA)
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