ALBERT

Notes: The calculation of purchasing power parities and quantity comparisons for a given year provides interesting information about the relative importance of countries. However, it is necessary to make these estimates annually in order to enable users to apply these parities for international comparison of annual data expressed in national currency. The paper deals with the problems related to merging spatial comparisons and temporal volume and price movements for the countries of the European Community. For these countries full information was collected in 1975 and in 1980, whereas in the intermediate years some price data were collected and price indices at a detailed level have also been collected. First the theoretical problems of consistency between the spatial results and temporal indices are discussed. Because no immediate consistency can be obtained, several methods are proposed to achieve consistency, by estimating one unique set of spatial and temporal indices. The available information for the period 1975-80 has been used in order to test the numerical differences between two sets of parities and price indices over time. Besides theoretical reasons for inconsistency, it is also necessary to take into account errors in the price observations or in the price indices. The results presented in the paper should be considered as provisional and further work will be undertaken to obtain better insights into the inconsistency between these sets of data.

Notes: To know the size and development of the hidden or underground economy is important for policy making, mainly because the measures undertaken may be misdirected if they are based on biased official statistics. The hidden economy can be measured by considering indicators. The direct methods are based on voluntary surveys and on tax auditing and other compliance methods. The indirect estimation methods rely on the identification of residuals with respect to income and expenditures, as well as in the labor and money markets. The strengths and weaknesses of each of these measurement approaches are discussed and the resulting estimates of the size of the hidden economy are compared. A different approach to measurement is to look at the determinants leading to the existence and growth of the hidden economy. Finally, the method of “unobserved variables” allows the combination of the two approaches by simultaneously considering the determinants and indicators of the under- ground economy. The results show a considerable range of sizes for a given country and year. Though there is a broad range of size estimates, there is general agreement that the hidden economy's size has been growing for all countries over recent decades. Further progress in quantitative knowledge about the hidden economy requires the development of a theoretical model which analyses the interdependencies between the official private sector, the hidden economy, and the public sector.

Notes: In the course of the nearly two decades since the revised SNA was developed, the role of pensions and insurance in the developed western economies has been significantly altered. The United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA) is not fully consistent in its treatment of pension and insurance transactions. This paper examines whether, in view of the changed institutional context, a modification of the SNA treatment of this complex of flows would be desirable. It investigates the impact on household income and saving of adopting a somewhat more consistent transactor/transaction approach for all pension and insurance transactions. Four main topics are covered: (1) social security, (2) private pensions, (3) life insurance, and (4) casualty insurance. Each is considered in terms of the treatment of contributions, the treatment of benefits, and the handling of reserves and the income generated by them. The same sorts of problem arise in all four cases.

Notes: Production maximization, together with an appropriate distribution of income and wealth, can no longer be considered as the exclusive objective of socio-economic policies. Economic and social life is accompanied by numerous hardships, constraints and damages which demand to be minimized. Combining these dual aims is not easy as no single model has yet been set up taking into account all these inter-relations. However, one may try to reduce the uncertainty about the statistical material that could be required for decision-making in this new context.

Notes: The formidable expansion in the scope of the United Nations International Comparison Project has brought into evidence limitations of the methodology used in the first three phases. The author considers that there are two indispensable conditions needed to give renewed impetus to the ICP: (a) the objectives must be redefined, and (b) the methodology must be built on an entirely new basis. He considers the broad lines of such an evolution to be the following.(a) The objective of volume comparison must be kept distinct from that of purchasing power comparison, given that both the basic material and the formulae to be used at the aggregate level differ in the two cases.(b) At the basic heading level, it is proposed, for both volume and purchasing power comparisons, to replace the multilateral approach by a “minimum scale” binary and unilateral approach, and to use the EKS method. This will make possible an improvement in the accuracy of the estimates, a reduction in the overall costs, and a drastic reduction in execution time. What is more, it would be possible to regionalize the worldwide comparison, in the sense that the results of the basic heading comparisons already obtained at the regional level for regional purposes can be used as an input in the framework of the worldwide comparison. At the aggregate level, in the framework of volume comparison, it is proposed that a constant price procedure in the spatial sense should continue to be used. It is, however, proposed that the prices of the set of countries (GK) be replaced by a structure of common “equi-distant” prices (G). This would permit the elimination of the significant systematic distortions observed in the comparison between rich and poor countries in the first three phases of ICP. What is more, this gives maximum stability to results obtained for the same countries at different geographical levels. By using a set of common “equi-distant” quantities, the same advantage can be obtained in the purchasing power comparison.

Notes: This paper explores the choices and potential biases involved in valuing one type of government expenditure, medical transfers, and in estimating its antipoverty impact. Three methodological approaches–(a measure of) government costs, (a measure of) cash-equivalent values and (a measure of) funds released–are contrasted both in concept and in practice. We assign benefits to individuals after assuming that Medicare and Medicaid provide insurance to all those who are eligible. The resulting estimates for 1968 and 1974 illustrate the efficacy of these medical transfers in reducing the number of persons in poverty. Two recent studies, one by the Congressional Budget Office, and the other by Morton Paglin, further highlight the importance of medical transfers for estimating poverty, despite the fact that we do not wholly agree with the methodologies which they employ. Our results indicate that in the aggregate, while medical care transfers have a substantial impact on poverty, the choice of a specific estimation approach has little effect on poverty estimates. However, for the elderly and possibly also for other groups (e.g. the rural poor), choice of estimation technique is quite crucial for estimating the extent of poverty.

Notes: In studies of income distribution household income is the common measure of household welfare, although household per capita income is better since it automatically “corrects” for household size. Perhaps the continued use of the former is a consequence of the belief that in practice the two give very similar results. This paper shows that in many cases those results differ substantially. Policy prescription based on household income rather than household per capita income can be very defective. The paper compares results according to the two income concepts for Malaysian data. U.S. data are then used in a comparison over time.The disparity between the two Malaysian distributions is illustrated by their cross tabulation. A quarter of the households in the lowest forty percent of the household income distribution is in the upper three quintiles of household per capita income; and 10 percent of the same lowest forty are in the highest two quintiles of the second distribution. The paper also shows that the distribution of benefits from public education-measured as the public costs of school years—is very inegalitarian if household income is used. The reverse occurs if household per capita income is used. Similar reversals occur in comparisons involving partitions by occupation and sex of head of household. Women-headed households, for example, have sub-mean household incomes but their household income per capita equals the mean. The paper also examines the differences in the age-income profiles of the two distributions. It then considers whether the much discussed secular stagnation in U.S. measures of inequality is changed if household income per capita is used rather than the usual household income measure. Use of the per capita concept results in a slight decrease in U.S. inequality between 1947 and 1972. Appendix 2 explores how long term growth in per capita incomes and the associated changes in the size composition of households may affect measurements of inequality.

Notes: Provision of “market goods” follows the decision rules of traditional microeconomics; pricing and resource allocation for such goods tend towards Pareto optimality. The provision of “collective goods,” by contrast, depends on political (or quasi-political) collective decision processes; beneficiaries often receive a share of collective goods free of charge or well below average or marginal (private or social) costs. No inherent tendency towards optimality may be presumed and separate analysis of collective goods becomes an essential part of national goals accounting.The national-income-accounts (NIA) distinction between personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and government purchases of goods and services corresponds roughly to a division between market goods bought by the consumer and a major category of “collective goods” (i.e. “public goods” provided by government). However, a significant proportion of PCE represents “collective goods” paid for by government, business, or nonprofit organizations and provided on behalf of the consumer, whereas a part of NIA government purchases represents services paid for by the consumer (i.e. “market goods”).This article develops operationally meaningful distinctions among “market goods,”“collective goods,” and “tied aid” (a mixed category with market-good and collective-good characteristics). These distinctions are determined by the nature of the decision processes–rather than by the characteristics of the beneficiary or the supplier. This classification is related to the national income accounts and major discrepancies are pinpointed. The blurring of the distinction among market goods, collective goods and tied aid is found to be most consequential in the NIA treatment of “education” and “medical care” services. NIA data for these two services are restructured for national goals accounting purposes in order to illustrate both the quantitative importance and the empirical feasibility of classifying benefits by their respective decision processes.

Notes: Recently there has been discussion concerning the renewal of the volume measurements of public sector services. This renewal has been proposed e.g. in the recent United Nations Draft Manual on Public Sector Statistics. In the present paper we discuss some theoretical and practical problems connected with this renewal. According to some preliminary calculations concerning the Finnish educational sector, the new methodology might lead to a considerable revision of figures of output and labour productivity in the public sector. The revisions are of such a quantity that they might cause significant changes in the measurement of the volume of the total gross domestic product. This is a fact which may still require reflection before the new methodology is generally introduced, even though the revisions as such may be highly desirable from several aspects.

Notes: Structural relationships estimated from data obtained in a benchmark study of the expenditures and prices of 16 countries are used to develop a table of real gross domestic product and shares of gross domestic product devoted to private and public consumption and investment for each of over 100 countries in the years 1950 and 1960 through 1977. Price level estimates for total product and the three components are also provided.

Notes: Taxes as well as government expenditures tend to transform income distribution; the higher they are in relation to GDP, the higher their potential influence appears. It is easier to trace the incidence of taxes than that of expenditures and studies of effects of expenditures on income distribution are not frequent. Changes of fiscal legislation and deficiencies in reporting systems and statistics frequently found in developing countries complicate the task still further.An investigation of this type in a developing country has to face a poorly developed data base and take advantage of different and dispersed sources of information.This paper presents the methodology used for estimating the influence of government expenditures a n income distribution in the case of Venezuela. Although the incidence of fiscal activities on income distribution in Venezuela might not necessarily be the same as in other countries, Venezuelan sources of information are not very different from those existing in other countries of similar level of economic and statistical development and procedures used could appropriately be adapted to other countries.

Notes: This paper explores the imputed service price approach to the pricing of the services of consumer-owned-and-used durables in the construction of the consumer price index, using the services of owner-occupied housing as an illustration. A theoretical framework for analyzing this question is first developed. Certain practical problems are then discussed. The conceptual difficulty of constructing an appropriate rate of return on the basis of available data on interest rates and house prices, in the context of inflation, is explored. Two arguments are advanced that statistical agencies ought not to follow the imputed service price approach in pricing the services of owner-occupied dwellings and other consumer durables. On the one hand, nominal interest rates will, in any short period, reflect monetary policy and not any change in the money “rental” of owner-occupied houses. Second, movements in nominal interest rates will also reflect changes in the money price of pure consumption goods, as well as changes in the money price of houses. The argument is extended to other consumer durables and, in the limiting case, to monetary balances, and it is concluded that in all but trivial cases the application of the service price approach leads to price movements of little or no meaning.

Notes: This paper uses a variety of assumptions to produce calculations of worldwide income distributions from recent international data compilations. The variable quality of the source materials in these compilations along with the arbitrariness in the assumptions required are emphasized. A number of working hypotheses for the worldwide income distribution are offered until data and methods improve. It is suggested the top 1 percent of world population may receive 10–15 percent of world income, the top 10 percent from 45–65 percent, and the bottom 20 percent from 1–4 percent. These figures seem more unequal than those for domestic distributions even for more inegalitarian countries.

Notes: For estimates of the wealth distribution Canada depends on household surveys taken at 6–7 year intervals. The latest data from this source refer to household balance sheets in the spring of 1977. A comparison with 1970 shows that there is little change in the composition of wealth held by households but that inequality of the wealth distribution has been somewhat reduced. Wealth data by age of family head is presented in order to describe more fully the wealth distribution and composition in Canada.Weaknesses in the data are discussed as well as the difficulties of making appropriate adjustments to the data at the micro record level. For policy evaluation and formulation purposes the lack of comprehensive estimates inclusive of pension wealth as well as the small sample size (12,700 usable records) have been perceived as greater obstacles to utilizing the data than the underestimate in aggregate assets and debts which affects more the higher than the middle and lower ranges of the wealth distribution.

Notes: The article refutes the contention that Brazil's development has not benefited the poor and that rapid growth has had a polarizing effect on the distribution of income. It uses the National Household Expenditure Survey of 1974–75 to try to quantify the extent of poverty and concludes that the incòme levels of the poor have been underestimated in the past. The evidence suggests also that occupational and regional variables are powerful determinants of income stratification. Wage rate statistics convey information about long-term trends in income. The article notes considerable increases in rural wages during the 1970s as well as wage improvements in the urban informal sector. Shifts in the structure of employment have probably been the most powerful cause of economic improvement in Brazil. The enormous absorption of rural-urban migrants occurred without a flooding of the lower income urban categories. Social indicators and statistics referring to ownership of household durable consumer goods corroborate income and labor market evidence to the effect that there has been considerable progress for the poor during the 1970s. The article reviews statistical evidence bearing on distribution. There is little doubt that the distribution of income in Brazil is very skewed. It is not possible, however, to come to conclusions about changes that might have occurred in the degree of inequality over time. Finally, the article includes data on the “distribution of education” and the “distribution of life expectancy” and notes improvement over time in both.This article takes advantage of the Brazilian population census of 1980 to bring up to date some of the statistical material that bears on the issues of poverty and income distribution. First, the article describes the overall context of Brazilian development since 1960. The second part analyzes the extent of poverty in the mid-1970s. The third part deals with trends in wages, employment and selected welfare indicators. The last section briefly summarizes the information relating to income distribution: what is the extent of skewedness and how has it evolved over time?

Notes: Income redistribution studies on the macro–economic level have been undertaken in Denmark for the years 1938–39, 1949, 1955, and 1963. By use of national accounts figures and all other available statistics, it was on certain assumptions possible to distribute public sector income and expenditure by income groups.A quite different approach is used in a Danish redistribution study on the micro-economic level for 1971, which relies solely on the comprehensive data from the family budget survey for that year. Unfortunately this study only relates to employee households.This paper deals with the 1963 and 1971 studies. First it describes and discusses the differences in methodology between the two studies and indicates some ideas for future studies in this field in Denmark. In the following sections some main results of the two studies are given, briefly for the 1963 study and more comprehensively for the 1971 study. The studies show the great and growing strength of the policy of redistribution through public sector income and expenditure in Denmark.It is the opinion of the authors that the appearance of redistribution studies based on comprehensive family budget surveys makes for a substantial improvement of redistribution figures, and that the purely micro-level frame of reference makes it possible to interpret the results in a more satisfactory way than before. Furthermore, the appearance of detailed input-output based national accounts data should bring about further improvements in redistribution figures through better data on indirect taxes and subsidies as well as supporting data which are necessary to link the micro and macro levels in a consistent way.

Notes: It is often discussed that inflation introduces a substantial, arbitrary and regressive redistribution of income and wealth under even mild inflation. But after a quarter century of experience with inflation in postwar Japan, very little is known about these costs of inflation on an empirical basis. Due to the complexity of the evaluation of the redistributional impact on Japan, the present paper analyzes the effects of inflation on individuals or groups as wage earners, debtors and creditors, taxpayers, and holders of real estate.The main results of the present investigation suggest that the Japanese inflation for 1955–75 did not seem to introduce much inequality in the income (flow) account in the economy, but that the inequality between households has appeared more in the wealth (stock) account, especially between the house-owner groups and non-house-owner groups. These observations are mainly derived from the following investigations; (i) the wage lag hypothesis about inflation, even if not wrong, does not seem acceptable when applied to the entire period (1955–75) as well as to each of the five sub-periods; (ii) there has been a substantial transfer of real purchasing power from households to non-financial corporations, and, to a lesser extent, to government entities in the debtor-creditor redistribution; (iii) among households, the most substantial redistribution takes place from the non-houseowners to houseowners with land, because of the huge amount of capital gains from the rapid increase in the price of real estate relative to the prices of other assets or the consumer price index, except for the last three years of rampaging inflation.

Notes: Preliminary estimates of the total incomes system of accounts (TISA) are provided for 1959 and 1969. They extend conventional accounts to include all consumption services produced by government and households as well as by enterprises, but define household purchases of durable and semi-durable goods as investment. Acquisitions of capital throughout the economy, intangible as well as tangible, and not only in the business sector, are included in capital accumulation along with, for tangible capital, net revaluations, that is capital gains net of increases in the general price level. Imputations are offered for non market consumption and capital accumulation, most prominently in unpaid household work and education. Much of government output, particularly police services and defense, is recalculated as intermediate, along with expenses related to work, while media services, treated by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as business purchases of intermediate product, enter into TISA consumption. Subsidies are included in the value of product, as are services of volunteers and imputations for the underpayment of military conscripts and of jurors. Separate accounts are offered for the national income and product, business, nonprofit institutions, government enterprises, government and households.The ratios of BEA to TISA Net National Product were 81.4 percent and 76.5 percent in 1959 and 1969, respectively. BEA national income was 74.1 percent of the corresponding TISA net national income in 1959 and 69.6 percent in 1969, reflecting a greater per annum rate of growth of TISA net national income, 7.49 percent, as against 6.82 percent for the corresponding BEA national income.BEA gross private domestic investment, restricted to business acquisitions of tangible capital at original cost, was estimated as only approximately 22 percent of comprehensive TISA gross domestic capital formation in 1959 and some 20 percent in 1969. The BEA net private domestic investment growth rate of 7.32 percent per annum from 1959 to 1969 may be compared with a TISA net domestic capital formation growth rate of 9.42 percent.

Notes: The paper is concerned with the concept, definition and measurement of a service. Although services are often dismissed as immaterial goods, they are not special kinds of goods and belong in a quite different logical category from goods. The search for appropriate units of quantity in which to measure services is not an idle metaphysical pursuit. Without quantity units there can be no prices, and most economic theory becomes irrelevant. Indeed, large parts of economic theory may be irrelevant to the analysis of services anyway, precisely because they are not goods which can be exchanged among economic units. Services are as important as goods in modern developed economies and they need to be identified and quantified properly if the measurement of economic growth and inflation is to have any meaning for the economy as a whole. The concept of a service is explained in some detail in the paper, and various ways in which services can be classified for purposes of economic analysis are elaborated. The distinction between private and public goods, or rather between private and collective services, is re-examined in the light of the general concept of a service proposed in the paper. Externalities are shown to be simply special kinds of services.

Notes: This article examines several hypotheses concerning the stochastic nature of year to year variations in individual incomes in light of newly available microdata on individual earnings. In particular, the models of Solow (1951), Champernowne (1953), and Rutherford (1955) are examined in some detail, and their predictions as to changes to be expected in the distribution of individual incomes are tested. The author concludes that the distributions arrived at using these models are not very similar either to each other or to the actual distribution of earnings. Thus, he believes that as an “explanation” of earnings dynamics stochastic process models are unsatisfactory. He further criticizes these models on the grounds that they foster a bias toward the belief in the inevitability, and perhaps desirability, of the current distribution of earnings.

Notes: This paper investigates the relation between schooling and earnings across and within occupations. Across occupations earnings are positively related to mean education. Within occupations the variance in schooling levels is generally substantial, but within two thirds of the occupations no relation between schooling and earnings is observed, while in the remaining third the pattern of sensitivity varies considerably. The sensitivity of earnings to education is greater for white males than white females and substantially greater for whites than blacks. When the white sample is divided into age cohorts, the degree of sensitivity of earnings to schooling is found to be greater for younger cohorts than older ones, except for the youngest cohort in 1970. In the conclusion, a structural interpretation of the distribution of earnings is proposed to account for the findings.

Notes: The historical background and present methodology used in compiling the U.K. official estimates of the stock of fixed capital are described. Mention is made of the possibility that with the development of commercial accounting direct estimates of capital stock may be derived from enterprise accounts at some future time. For the present, however, an indirect perpetual inventory approach is followed. Some of the deficiencies of the present estimates are discussed including the effects of possible biases in the life-length assumptions, price indices and the treatment of secondhand assets. Estimates of gross capital stock are given analysed by industry group of ownership and by type of asset.Some conceptual issues are discussed in relation to user requirements, including the distinction between the stock of capital and the flow of services from it.The authors conclude that little can be done to improve the perpetual inventory estimate of fixed capital in the U.K. without devoting more resources to the collection and analysis of new information, particularly on the service lives of fixed assets, the extent of leasing and the transfer of assets between industries.

Notes: This paper is concerned with the theoretical problems of devising indexes of quality change and with some of the practical problems of constructing such indexes from market data, relating these to the various attempts to construct such indexes in the past. The general conclusion is that, while quality is inherently ordinal, there are three different indexes which might be taken as “measures” of quality change. If changes are sufficiently small, the values of all three indexes will coincide and then, only, can we consider any one of them to be an unambiguous measure of the change.

Notes: This paper assesses the effects of including wealth and the variability of income on the incidence of poverty and the degree of income inequality in Israel. A special survey, which includes data on the wealth and income of a national sample of Israeli families in 1963–64 and 1964–65, allows us to go beyond measures based on current income alone.The first section reviews earlier studies of poverty in Israel. The next section looks at poverty and inequality in terms of current income, current wealth, and a combined measure of income and wealth. The combined measure is the Hansen-Weisbrod measure (HW), which equals income plus the annuity value of wealth, assuming all wealth is just consumed at the time of death. It is interesting that, in spite of the much higher wealth inequality than income inequality, the HW measure was slightly more equally distributed than income. This result occurred because the annuity component made up a low share of the total HW measure and the correlation between income and wealth was well under 1. Although overall inequality and poverty were similar for income and HW measures, the incidence of poverty by subgroup depended on the measure used.The final section presents a dynamic view of poverty and inequality. Year-to-year changes in poverty were substantial. Because of the use of a relative poverty concept and the rise in real incomes, the real income poverty line rose by 15 percent between 1963 and 1964. Still, of those in income poverty in 1963, 37 percent managed to escape poverty in 1964. The paper shows how the degree to which poverty was stable or transitory varied substantially by age and country of origin.

Notes: This paper describes a study designed to provide quarterly estimates of the real capital stock of the United States by sector and industry, which is being undertaken by the Conference Board. It surveys the history of wealth estimation in the United States, and goes on to describe work now in progress both in the Bureau of Economic Analysis and by private researchers. It then continues with a description of the methodology being used in the Conference Board study.

Notes: The reliability of national accounts is determined by the adequacy of a great variety of data sources and estimating methods. This inquiry focuses on major conceptual and methodological problems, and while it does not solve the reliability problem, it provides a framework for reliability analysis and suggests criteria for the evaluation of results; it also assists the producers of national accounts in determining the major trade-offs between different areas of possible data improvement.

Notes: This article present estimates, in current prices, of the national wealth of Japan and of about a dozen components for twelve benchmark dates between 1885 and 1973, the distance ranging, with one exception, from five to twelve years. The estimates are derived by a combination of (a) Ohkawa's perpetual inventory estimates of reproducible fixed assets for the period from 1885 to 1940 and Economic Planning Agency censuses for 1950 to 1965, roughly extrapolated to 1973; with (b) estimates of other components of national wealth (land, inventories, consumer durables and net foreign assets) taken for the pre-war period chiefly from census-type data and derived for the postwar period from miscellaneous, mainly official, sources.As in most countries the current value of Japan's national wealth increased until World War II considerably more slowly than its national product, which expanded with extraordinary rapidity. In the postwar period, however, the ratio showed a slight upward trend reaching by 1973 fully 3 1/2. The ratio of all reproducible assets to national product showed a similar pattern at a lower level, reaching 2 1/2 in 1973. In contrast the ratio of so-called productive assets (non-residential buildings, equipment and inventories) failed to show a definite secular trend remaining between 1.5 and 2.2 at all but one benchmark date.Changes in the structure of national wealth over the past century were pronounced, but very different before and after World War II. Up to the 1940's, the share of land declined sharply from about one-half to less than one-fourth, to the benefit primarily of producer durables and non-residential structures. In the last quarter of a century, in contrast, the extraordinary rise in urban land prices brought the share of land in national wealth back to one-third (though the share of agricultural land continued to decline rapidly), while that of producer and consumer durables continued to increase.

Notes: The purpose of this article is to record the history of the national income and product accounts of the United States, concentrating on the period 1932–47. During that period the single national income aggregate evolved into a set of accounts and the estimates emerged as an important analytical tool. Interviews with participants in these developments were extensively utilized to trace the events, people, ideas, and other factors which shaped the history of the accounts.The generally recognized need for economic information during the Great Depression stimulated the request that the Department of Commerce undertake what became the first official continuing series on national income in the United States. These estimates were prepared with the cooperation of the National Bureau of Economic Research and were published in 1934. By the late 1930's, estimates were extended to include income by state and a monthly series. World War II was the impetus for the development of product, or expenditure, estimates. By the mid-1940's, the estimates had evolved into a set of income and product accounts–a consolidated production account, sector income and outlay accounts, and a consolidated saving-investment account–designed to provide a bird's-eye-view of the economy. During this period uses of the accounts widened; analysis of wartime production goals and anti-inflation policy are noteworthy examples. The National Income, 1947 Edition was the culmination of a period of intensive conceptual discussion, extension of data sources, and improvement of estimating techniques. Thereafter the mainlines of development are more familiar, encompassing refinement and elaboration of the estimates and proliferation of uses.

Notes: This is a study of the first order incidence of government taxation and expenditure policies on the incomes of families and unattached individuals in Canada in 1970. The specific purposes of the study are twofold. The first is to estimate for calendar year 1970 the first order incidence of governments’actual tax, transfer, and expenditure policies on spending units. The second objective is to simulate the changes in this incidence that would have occurred in 1970 if the new federal personal income tax, unemployment insurance, old age sccurity and family allowance programs had been in operation during that year. The methodology is similar to that used by W. Irwin Gillespie in his pioneering 1964 study for the Royal Commission on Taxation.It is concluded that the 1970 incidence of the combined tax and transfer programs of all levels of government is broadly redistributive, with net incidence of federal government programs being considerably more redistributive than that of provincial and local governments. In general, the public sector provides large net benefits to families and individuals with incomes of less than $4,000, declining net benefits to families earning from $4,000 to $11,000 and levies small but increasing levels of net tax on families and individuals with incomes in excess of $11,000. This general conclusion is relatively insensitive to the precise assumptions made about the shifting of taxes and the distribution of expenditures on pure public goods. From simulation experiments, recent reforms of the federal income tax, unemployment insurance, old age security and family allowance systems were estimated to increase the amount of redistribution from the rich to the poor.

Notes: This paper outlines a conceptual basis for the measurement and analysis of levels of welfare. It reflects the thinking that has been ongoing in the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study. Three alternative approaches to the measurement of welfare for the purpose of ranking households are surveyed, and the data requirements and analytical techniques for each highlighted. Various issues are discussed regarding the causal analysis of welfare levels and the changes in them. It is argued that the consideration of several dynamic aspects of welfare is significant for the identification of the poor and the potentially poor and for more accurate measurement of levels of living between socioeconomic groups.

Notes: A number of rather traditional problems relating to the estimation of the national accounts have been raised in the recent literature. This paper examines five of these problems from the point of view of a government statistician working within certain time and resource constraints. Credibility, comprehensibility, theoretical validity, cost and analytical usefulness are the criteria which should aid in deciding how to treat such matters as the extension of the boundaries of economic production, proposed changes in the categorization of both final and intermediate expenses, the treatment of “total” welfare and estimation relating to the so-called underground economy.

Notes: The question addressed in this paper is: Why can't we have a good measuring rod of the economic and social performance of our society? The answers are basically positive but lie mostly in the direction of (1) avoiding simplistic solutions such as turning the national income accounts into a measure of social welfare and (2) providing the elements of an information strategy to obtain such a measure or more accurately such a set of measures.The proposed information strategy highlights five activities: (1) the presentation and analysis of welfare outcomes, an activity which is analogous to but broader than “social indicators”; (2) social accounting which includes economic accounting, demographic accounting, and time-use accounting; (3) model building and operation which, unlike accounting, are concerned with behavioral or causal relationships used to explain and project welfare outcomes; (4) hypothesis testing to develop new insights into economic and social behavior; and finally (5) the building and maintenance of a data base required for carrying on the aforementioned four activities.

Notes: The importance of non-personal shareholders in Malaysian corporations is widely acknowledged. However, up till now, very little has been known about the nature of these shareowners, their manner of equity ownership (especially their size of holdings hence degree of share concentration), their country of incorporation and how they themselves are controlled i.e. whether Malaysian or foreign. This paper attempts to fill this gap with data compiled from official shareholders' lists of the largest ninety-eight Malaysian incorporated companies engaged in manufacturing, for a point in time 1975–75, which is towards the end of the Second Malaysia Plan period. Some of the empirical findings are then compared with those of a few selected countries.

Notes: Book review in this article:JAMES MEADE: Stagflation Vol 1: Wage Fixing. George Allen & Unwin LA.

Notes: At the first residential conference of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which was held at St. Edmund Hall, Oxford, in September 1983, Mr Stewart Bates, QC, spoke on the implications of the decision of the House of Lords in the case of W. T. Ramsay Ltd v CIR. A report of those proceedings was held over until the decision of the House of Lords in the case of Furniss, v Dawson was known. The following report is based upon Mr Bates' address and the comments of Mr Stephen Oliver, QC, Mr John Avery Jones and Mr Adrian Shipwright who spoke at a lunchtime seminar convened by the IFS on 9 March 1984 to consider the decision in Furniss v Dawson. This report does not reflect the opinions of the IFS, which has no corporate views.

Notes: This article discusses methods of integrating the “informal sector” in the national accounts of developing countries. This sector, defined generally as composed of producers who do not keep formal accounts, is difficult to capture by usual statistical collection techniques, and therefore is often neglected. The paper develops the requirements for a direct inquiry approach to obtaining data for this sector, emphasizing the need for national, exhaustive, and periodic coverage. It then proceees to propose methods of analysis for informal sector enterprises with and without fixed locations, tailored to the specific characteristics of each trade. The final section presents some results of application of the proposed methods in Tunisia and Niger.

Notes: This paper constructs estimates of income and consumption inequality for the world (124 countries), using various measures of inequality. It then goes on to examine the possible effects of various sources of error in the estimates, and attempts to set rough limits to the size of such effects. Among the sources of error examined are purchasing power parities used for currency conversion, systematic errors in estimates of per capita incomes, differences in age structure, government tax and expenditure policy, and lifetime income effects. The paper concludes that, although the level of uncertainty in the estimates is too great to permit conclusions about, for instance, trends over time, it is clear that the level of world inequality is extreme, and that it is primarily due to differences in average incomes across countries rather than to intra-country inequality.

Notes: In this study, new estimates are presented of the size distribution of household wealth in the U.S. in 1969. Compared to previous studies, its major advance is the inclusion of all marketable or discretionary household assets and liabilities and their alignment with national balance sheet totals. Household disposable wealth (HDW) is defined as the sum of all marketable or fungible assets held by households less liabilities. The Gini coefficient for HDW is 0.72, the share held by the richest one percent of households is 31 percent, and the share held by the top five percent is 49 percent. There is, however, a large variation in the concentration of different household assets. The Gini coefficient is 0.30 for household durables and inventories, 0.69 for equity in owner-occupied housing, 0.94 for bonds and securities, and 0.98 for corporate stock. HDW is then divided into two mutually exclusive components. The first, called “life-cycle wealth,” is defined as the sum of equity in owner-occupied housing, durables, household inventory, demand deposits and currency, and the cash value of life insurance and pensions less consumer debt. This form of wealth tends to be accumulated over the life-cycle for either consumption, liquidity, or retirement purposes. The second, called “capital wealth,” is the sum of time and savings deposits, bonds and securities, corporate stock, business and investment real estate equity, and trust fund equity. Life-cycle wealth is substantially less concentrated than capital wealth. The Gini coefficient for it is 0.59, while that for capital wealth is 0.88. Moreover, among the lower wealth groups, over 80 percent of household wealth takes the form of life-cycle wealth, whereas among the top wealth groups the proportion is under 20 percent. The results suggest substantially different savings motivations between the two groups.

Notes: This paper presents a method of estimating U.S. family net wealth across the entire population, utilizing capitalization of several income items available from income tax microdata. Other forms of wealth, and debt, are indirectly estimated using relationships gleaned from estate tax data. Concentration in the distribution of wealth, and assets such as corporate stock, are measured with Gini coefficients and Lorenz curve analysis and compared to similar estimates of concentration in the distribution of income. Comparisons of the results with previous estimates for the United States are made in the latter section of the paper.

Notes: This paper utilizes Household Expenditure Survey and Consumer Price Index data supplemented by private survey data in an attempt to compare the purchasing power parities of the pound sterling and the Australian dollar for a range of population sub-groups in the United Kingdom and Australia. In spite of the close political, economic, social and cultural ties that exist between these two countries, there have been no attempts to measure differences in living costs and real expenditures. Further, Australia has not been a party to the International Comparisons project of the Statistical Office of the United Nations. This study derives purchasing power parities which explicitly account for variations in expenditure patterns of different population sub-groups. For example, a household living in London intending to move to Sydney will find it useful to have a comparison of cost-of-living between households living in these two cities which takes into account explicitly the general expenditure patterns in these two cities. Due to the nature of the data, it was necessary to employ a new index number method derived by one of the authors.

Notes: “As compared with Hicksian, Harrodian measures of the concept of total factor productivity which rigorously take into account the reproducibility of commodity capital inputs and the technological interdependence of modern production economies are advocated. A number of recent measures of total factor productivity are shown to be variants of the Harrodian approach, and certain problems of aggregation associated with the Hicksian measures are shown to be resolved by the Harrodian measures. An examination of the concepts of technical progress and vertically integrated sectors advanced by Professor Luigi L. Pasinetti and their relation to the Harrodian measures of total factor productivity is made.”

Notes: The growth of the public sector in the post-war period and the consequences of this development for economic growth is a strongly disputed subject of economic theory and policy. In this paper the development trends of state activities in the case of the Federal Republic of Germany are presented. The structure of public expenditures as well as the tax structure are taken into consideration and possible impacts on real economic growth are analysed. The negative correlations between some kinds of public expenditures (or taxes) and the growth rate of real GNP should not be taken in proof of the growth-retarding effects which might ensue from increasing state activities. It seems to be more likely that state activities have induced shifts of resources from the formal into the informal economy. Politicians should be aware that some measures of economic policy conventionally proposed will strengthen the movement into the informal economy, thus intensifying the current problems within the public budgets as well as in the social security system.

Notes: This paper uses five valuation methods to derive aggregate and per person estimates of the value of household work in the United States. Two general questions are posed: (1) what is the relationship between the aggregate estimates and the valuation method used, and (2) how do per person estimates vary by sex and earnings?The main observations of the paper are as follows: First, the aggregate value of household work is sizable regardless of the valuation method used. Second, aggregate estimates are extremely sensitive to the method of valuation. For example, the highest estimate is $475 billion greater than the lowest estimate. Third, contrary to earlier findings, opportunity cost valuation methods generally produce significantly higher estimates than market cost valuation methods. Fourth, per person estimates vary significantly by sex and level of earnings across valuation methods. Generally, market cost estimates.

Notes: Income generating functions are statistical tools used to explain income inequality and other economic outcomes and behavior. These functions are often associated with a strict human capital framework, but they need not be. Instead, they may be viewed as a reduced form equation summarizing the relationship between income and various personal and locational characteristics. Following this latter interpretation, we develop the regression and analysis of variance approaches to income generating functions and estimate them empirically using micro-economic data from one low income country, Colombia. Proceeding to increasingly parsimonious specifications of income generating functions, insights are gained into the structure of incomes in Colombia.

Notes: This paper deals with the influence of differing methods of deflation on the international terms of trade of the Federal Republic of Germany. The question to be discussed is what indices seem best suited for the deflation of exports and imports in national accounts. It will be shown that the use of alternative price indices for deflating exports and imports leads to considerable differences of the results at constant prices and so in terms of trade. In addition, terms of trade are presented by groups of countries.

Notes: Income inequality is examined using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a consistent decomposition analysis. I only use inequality measures that satisfy the Principle of Transfers, have the property that a ceteris paribus increase in inequality within any subgroup increases overall inequality, and are independent of the scale of income and population. Decompositions are carried out by family size and by age of head for several definitions of income and income recipient. Whilst changing the time unit over which income is measured has a substantial impact on inequality, the effect of removing the between-age-group component of inequality is relatively slight.

Notes: This paper discusses Austria's experiences in connection with the 1980 round of the UN International Comparison Project, in which comparisons were first made within regions and the regions then linked. Austria played a dual role, as (a) the linking country between Group I (the European Community) and Group II (selected middle and eastern European countries), and (b) the base country for Group II. The paper consists of two principal parts. The first part reports, at the 3-digit commodity level, on the success achieved in finding comparable items, both within Group II and between Austria and Group I. The second part discusses a number of methodological problems that were encountered in carrying out the comparison. Chief among these was the treatment of social services that are marketed in some countries and provided free of charge or at nominal prices in others. Other questions touched upon include the treatment of output for own consumption, rents, drugs and medicines, and tourist expenditures.

Notes: Lack of a conceptual basis for measuring human capital investment in health has hampered efforts to expand national accounting systems to include human capital investment. This paper presents a conceptual basis for developing estimates of this health investment, an estimation methodology consistent with the conceptual basis, and preliminary estimates for the United States for 1952-78.While much work remains to be done before comprehensive estimates of investment in health are achieved, it is clear that previous estimates based on answers to the question, “What improves health?” have included some inappropriate expenditures while excluding others that should be included.The conceptual basis presented here leads to a methodology for separating health care costs (not the costs of illness) into maintenance and gross investment. Gross investment can be further separated into net investment and the sum of damages and depreciation but empirical implementation of this step is not attempted here.

Notes: This paper describes the construction of an accounting matrix for the world economy in 1977, cast along similar lines to SNA National Accounts, but one in which trade flows replace inter-industry flows as intermediate demand. The matrix distinguishes ten regions. Institutional accounts are presented for three of these, the European Community, North America and Japan. This matrix is used to provide the basis of a linear model in which average propensities to import and consume are replaced by estimated marginal propensities. Use is made of standard estimates of the income effects of terms of trade changes in order to distinguish substitution from income effects in the model, and a means is suggested for separating the full as well as the impact effects of a terms of trade change into income and substitution effects. The estimated import equations are used to derive estimates of regional growth rates compatible with external balance in each region. Multiplier matrices are calculated from the model showing regional interdependence of the world economy reflecting the pattern of trade which is identified in the marginal propensities to import.The effects of various aid policies are calculated using the model. It is shown that the cost of aid to any region is radically altered by taking into account the feedback effects of changes in demand. A policy of tied aid pursued by EEC, North America and Japan can actually lead to an improvement in Japan's balance of payments position. Finally the effects of movements in relative prices are illustrated by means of two examples.

Notes: The persistence of poverty and income inequality in less developed countries (LDCs) is a source of serious concern to development economists. To understand the structure of inequality, several researchers using a variety of methodologies have measured the importance of various contributory factors to overall income variability. The available literature—which now includes studies of Brazil, Mexico, Iran, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Pakistan, and Colombia-has been reviewed elsewhere (Fields, forthcoming). This paper presents additional evidence for urban Colombia, in the process raising some important methodological issues which bear on the design of future research studies.The data set used in this paper is described in Section I. The decomposition of Colombian inequality by functional income source is presented in Section 11 for micro data. Section I11 examines the robustness of source decomposition procedures to data aggregation. Section IV presents inequality decompositions by city, and Section V by other income-determining characteristics. Conclusions appear in Section VI.

Notes: Using a simple simulation model, this paper assesses the impact of relative movements in asset prices on the distribution of wealth during the 1969–75 period. Because of the strong negative correlation between wealth level and the ratio of debt to wealth, this particular inflation induced a substantial drop in the overall level of wealth inequality. Moreover, comparing the portfolios of different demographic groups, we found that middle-aged households gained relatively to younger and older ones, married couples gained relatively to singles, whites gained relatively to non-whites, and home-owners gained relatively to renters. The biggest gainers from this inflation were home-owners with large mortgages and the biggest losers the large stock holders.

Notes: Responding to a perceived growing interest in human wealth estimates, this paper offers a framework for measuring the aggregate stock of human capital and then implements the procedure for the United States male population age 14 to 75. Unlike previous estimates of human wealth that are based upon historical or resource costs, these estimates measure the capital stock as the discounted resent-value of expected lifetime returns. In the estimation, returns are equated with earnings data from the 1970 U.S. Census 15 percent Public Use Sample for out-of-school males, adjusted for employment and survival probabilities, adjusted for an assumed exogenous growth in future earnings, and discounted at 7.5 percent.We provide cross-sectional estimates of individual stocks of human capital by age and educational attainment, as well as expected lifetime wealth profiles for individuals by level of education. These individual profiles can be used to obtain direct estimates of age-specific depreciation which suggest human capital is subject to significant and prolonged appreciation before nearly straight-line depreciation begins around middle age. This finding is all the more significant since resource-cost estimates of human capital which must assume a depreciation pattern to obtain stocks have always imposed a much faster rate much sooner.Finally, an aggregate estimate of the stock of human capital for all males is supplied and its sensitivity to the choice of the discount rate, tax laws, and expected exogenous growth is analyzed. This seemingly-conservative stock estimate is then compared to a much lower resource-cost estimate offered recently by John Kendrick. A discount rate over 20 percent would be needed to equate the two measures. In trying to reconcile the two figures, we raise some new questions about the validity of both approaches for human capital accounting.