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  • American Meteorological Society
  • 2015-2019  (2,243)
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  • 1
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 30, pp. 4337-4350, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2017-12-15
    Description: Warm water of open ocean origin on the continental shelf of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas causes the highest basal melt rates reported for Antarctic ice shelves with severe consequences for the ice shelf/ice sheet dynamics. Ice shelves fringing the broad continental shelf in the Weddell and Ross Seas melt at rates orders ofmagnitude smaller. However, simulations using coupled ice–ocean models forced with the atmospheric output of the HadCM3 SRES-A1B scenario run (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches 700 ppmv by the year 2100 and stays at that level for an additional 100 years) show that the circulation in the southern Weddell Sea changes during the twenty-first century. Derivatives of Circumpolar Deep Water are directed southward underneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf, warming the cavity and dramatically increasing basal melting. To find out whether the open ocean will always continue to power the melting, the authors extend their simulations, applying twentieth-century atmospheric forcing, both alone and together with prescribed basal mass flux at the end of (or during) the SRES-A1B scenario run. The results identify a tipping point in the southern Weddell Sea: once warm water flushes the ice shelf cavity a positive meltwater feedback enhances the shelf circulation and the onshore transport of open ocean heat. The process is irreversible with a recurrence to twentieth-century atmospheric forcing and can only be halted through prescribing a return to twentieth-century basal melt rates. This finding might have strong implications for the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 3829-3852, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0479.1.
    Description: This study provides an assessment of the uncertainty in ocean surface (OS) freshwater budgets and variability using evaporation E and precipitation P from 10 atmospheric reanalyses, two combined satellite-based E − P products, and two observation-based salinity products. Three issues are examined: the uncertainty level in the OS freshwater budget in atmospheric reanalyses, the uncertainty structure and association with the global ocean wet/dry zones, and the potential of salinity in ascribing the uncertainty in E − P. The products agree on the global mean pattern but differ considerably in magnitude. The OS freshwater budgets are 129 ± 10 (8%) cm yr−1 for E, 118 ± 11 (9%) cm yr−1 for P, and 11 ± 4 (36%) cm yr−1 for E − P, where the mean and error represent the ensemble mean and one standard deviation of the ensemble spread. The E − P uncertainty exceeds the uncertainty in E and P by a factor of 4 or more. The large uncertainty is attributed to P in the tropical wet zone. Most reanalyses tend to produce a wider tropical rainband when compared to satellite products, with the exception of two recent reanalyses that implement an observation-based correction for the model-generated P over land. The disparity in the width and the extent of seasonal migrations of the tropical wet zone causes a large spread in P, implying that the tropical moist physics and the realism of tropical rainfall remain a key challenge. Satellite salinity appears feasible to evaluate the fidelity of E − P variability in three tropical areas, where the uncertainty diagnosis has a global indication.
    Description: Primary support for the study is provided by the NOAAModeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program’s Climate Reanalysis Task Force (CRTF) through Grant NA13OAR4310106.
    Description: 2017-11-02
    Keywords: Hydrologic cycle ; Precipitation ; Evaporation ; Salinity ; Water budget ; Reanalysis data
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 1233-1243, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0496.1.
    Description: A downscaling approach is applied to future projection simulations from four CMIP5 global climate models to investigate the response of the tropical cyclone (TC) climatology over the North Pacific basin to global warming. Under the influence of the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gases, TC-track density, power dissipation, and TC genesis exhibit robust increasing trends over the North Pacific, especially over the central subtropical Pacific region. The increase in North Pacific TCs is primarily manifested as increases in the intense and relatively weak TCs. Examination of storm duration also reveals that TCs over the North Pacific have longer lifetimes under global warming. Through a genesis potential index, the mechanistic contributions of various physical climate factors to the simulated change in TC genesis are explored. More frequent TC genesis under global warming is mostly attributable to the smaller vertical wind shear and greater potential intensity (primarily due to higher sea surface temperature). In contrast, the effect of the saturation deficit of the free troposphere tends to suppress TC genesis, and the change in large-scale vorticity plays a negligible role.
    Description: The authors acknowledge support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) (RC-2336). SERDP is the environmental science and technology program of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    Description: 2017-08-01
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 1739-1751, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0200.1.
    Description: The Indian Ocean has sustained robust surface warming in recent decades, but the role of multidecadal variability remains unclear. Using ocean model hindcasts, characteristics of low-frequency Indian Ocean temperature variations are explored. Simulated upper-ocean temperature changes across the Indian Ocean in the hindcast are consistent with those recorded in observational products and ocean reanalyses. Indian Ocean temperatures exhibit strong warming trends since the 1950s limited to the surface and south of 30°S, while extensive subsurface cooling occurs over much of the tropical Indian Ocean. Previous work focused on diagnosing causes of these long-term trends in the Indian Ocean over the second half of the twentieth century. Instead, the temporal evolution of Indian Ocean subsurface heat content is shown here to reveal distinct multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation, and the long-term trends are thus interpreted to result from aliasing of the low-frequency variability. Transmission of the multidecadal signal occurs via an oceanic pathway through the Indonesian Throughflow and is manifest across the Indian Ocean centered along 12°S as westward-propagating Rossby waves modulating thermocline and subsurface heat content variations. Resulting low-frequency changes in the eastern Indian Ocean thermocline depth are associated with decadal variations in the frequency of Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events, with positive IOD events unusually common in the 1960s and 1990s with a relatively shallow thermocline. In contrast, the deeper thermocline depth in the 1970s and 1980s is associated with frequent negative IOD and rare positive IOD events. Changes in Pacific wind forcing in recent decades and associated rapid increases in Indian Ocean subsurface heat content can thus affect the basin’s leading mode of variability, with implications for regional climate and vulnerable societies in surrounding countries.
    Description: This research was supported by a Research Fellowship by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, as well as the Ocean Climate Change Institute and the Investment in Science Fund at WHOI.
    Description: 2017-08-15
    Keywords: Indian Ocean ; Ocean dynamics ; Climate variability ; Multidecadal variability ; Pacific decadal oscillation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 2251-2265, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-17-0042.1.
    Description: The problem of localized dense water formation over a sloping bottom is considered for the general case in which the topography forms a closed contour. This class of problems is motivated by topography around islands or shallow shoals in which convection resulting from brine rejection or surface heat loss reaches the bottom. The focus of this study is on the large-scale circulation that is forced far from the region of surface forcing. The authors find that a cyclonic current is generated around the topography, in the opposite sense to the propagation of the dense water plume. In physical terms, this current results from the propagation of low sea surface height from the region of dense water formation anticyclonically along the topographic contours back to the formation region. This pressure gradient is then balanced by a cyclonic geostrophic flow. This basic structure is well predicted by a linear quasigeostrophic theory, a primitive equation model, and in rotating tank experiments. For sufficiently strong forcing, the anticyclonic circulation of the dense plume meets this cyclonic circulation to produce a sharp front and offshore advection of dense water at the bottom and buoyant water at the surface. This nonlinear limit is demonstrated in both the primitive equation model and in the tank experiments.
    Description: MAS was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant OCE-1534618. Support for CC was given by the WHOI Ocean Climate Change Institute Proposal 27071273.
    Description: 2018-03-20
    Keywords: Bottom currents ; Buoyancy ; Ocean dynamics ; Density currents
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 34 (2017): 355-373, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-15-0226.1.
    Description: Passive longwave infrared radiometric satellite–based retrievals of sea surface temperature (SST) at instrument nadir are investigated for cold bias caused by unscreened optically thin cirrus (OTC) clouds [cloud optical depth (COD) ≤ 0.3]. Level 2 nonlinear SST (NLSST) retrievals over tropical oceans (30°S–30°N) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) radiances collected aboard the NASA Aqua satellite (Aqua-MODIS) are collocated with cloud profiles from the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument. OTC clouds are present in approximately 25% of tropical quality-assured (QA) Aqua-MODIS Level 2 data, representing over 99% of all contaminating cirrus found. Cold-biased NLSST (MODIS, AVHRR, and VIIRS) and triple-window (AVHRR and VIIRS only) SST retrievals are modeled based on operational algorithms using radiative transfer model simulations conducted with a hypothetical 1.5-km-thick OTC cloud placed incrementally from 10.0 to 18.0 km above mean sea level for cloud optical depths between 0.0 and 0.3. Corresponding cold bias estimates for each sensor are estimated using relative Aqua-MODIS cloud contamination frequencies as a function of cloud-top height and COD (assuming they are consistent across each platform) integrated within each corresponding modeled cold bias matrix. NLSST relative OTC cold biases, for any single observation, range from 0.33° to 0.55°C for the three sensors, with an absolute (bulk mean) bias between 0.09° and 0.14°C. Triple-window retrievals are more resilient, ranging from 0.08° to 0.14°C relative and from 0.02° to 0.04°C absolute. Cold biases are constant across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Absolute bias is lower over the Atlantic but relative bias is higher, indicating that this issue persists globally.
    Description: Authors JWM, NJS, and JZ acknowledge the support of NASA Project NNX14AJ13G andNSF Project IIA-1355466.Author JZ also acknowledges the support of ONR N00014-16-1-2040 (Grant 11843919). Author JWM further recognizes the Naval Research Enterprise Internship Program (NREIP). Support for his NREIP fellowship came from NASA Interagency Agreement NNG15JA17P on behalf of theMicro-Pulse LidarNetwork (E. J. Welton). Authors JRC, JAC and DLW acknowledge the support of Office of Naval Research Code 322 (PE0602435). Author JRC also acknowledges the support of NASA Interagency Agreement RPO201522 on behalf of the CALIPSO Science Team (C. R. Trepte).
    Description: 2017-08-06
    Keywords: Sea surface temperature ; Cirrus clouds ; Lidars/Lidar observations ; Remote sensing ; Satellite observations
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 339-351, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0165.1.
    Description: A novel multi-iteration statistical method for studying tracer spreading using drifter data is introduced. The approach allows for the best use of the available drifter data by making use of a simple iterative procedure, which results in the statistically probable map showing the likelihood that a tracer released at some source location would visit different geographical regions, along with the associated arrival travel times. The technique is tested using real drifter data in the North Atlantic. Two examples are considered corresponding to sources in the western and eastern North Atlantic Ocean, that is, Massachusetts Bay–like and Irish Sea–like sources, respectively. In both examples, the method worked well in estimating the statistics of the tracer transport pathways and travel times throughout the entire North Atlantic. The role of eddies versus mean flow is quantified using the same technique, and eddies are shown to significantly broaden the spread of a tracer. The sensitivity of the results to the size of the source domain is investigated and causes for this sensitivity are discussed.
    Description: This work was supported by the Grant OCE-1356630 from the National Science Foundation (NSF). Rypina also acknowledges NSF Grant OCE-1154641 and NASA Grant NNX14AH29G.
    Description: 2017-07-31
    Keywords: Atlantic Ocean ; Mass fluxes/transport ; Ocean circulation ; Trajectories ; Statistics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 34 (2017): 269-275, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00196.1.
    Description: A data telemetry technique for communicating over standard oceanographic sea cables that achieves a nearly 100-fold increase in bandwidth as compared to traditional systems has been recently developed and successfully used at sea on board two Research Vessel (R/V) Atlantis cruises with an 8.5-km, 0.322-in.-diameter three-conductor sea cable. The system uses commercially available modules to provide Ethernet connectivity through existing sea cables, linking serial and video underwater instrumentation to the shipboard user. The new method applies Synchronous Digital Subscriber Line (SDSL) communications technology to undersea applications, greatly increasing the opportunities to use scientific instrumentation from existing ships and sea cables at minimal cost and without modification.
    Description: This development program has been supported, in part, through research grants from the National Science Foundation (OCE 0447395), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s ASTEP program (NNX09AB76G), and a WHOI Green and Hiam Innovative Technology Award.
    Description: 2017-07-23
    Keywords: Instrumentation/sensors
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 34 (2017): 309-333, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0156.1.
    Description: Doppler current profilers on autonomous underwater gliders measure water velocity relative to the moving glider over vertical ranges of O(10) m. Measurements obtained with 1-MHz Nortek acoustic Doppler dual current profilers (AD2CPs) on Spray gliders deployed off Southern California, west of the Galápagos Archipelago, and in the Gulf Stream are used to demonstrate methods of estimating absolute horizontal velocities in the upper 1000 m of the ocean. Relative velocity measurements nearest to a glider are used to infer dive-dependent flight parameters, which are then used to correct estimates of absolute vertically averaged currents to account for the accumulation of biofouling during months-long glider missions. The inverse method for combining Doppler profiler measurements of relative velocity with absolute references to estimate profiles of absolute horizontal velocity is reviewed and expanded to include additional constraints on the velocity solutions. Errors arising from both instrumental bias and decreased abundance of acoustic scatterers at depth are considered. Though demonstrated with measurements from a particular combination of platform and instrument, these techniques should be applicable to other combinations of gliders and Doppler current profilers.
    Description: Spray glider missions were supported by the National Science Foundation (OCE-1232971, OCE-1233282), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA10OAR4320156, NA15OAR4320071), Eastman Chemical Company, the Oceans and Climate Change Institute at WHOI, and the W. Van Alan Clark Jr. Chair for Excellence in Oceanography at WHOI. RET acknowledges additional support for analysis and publication from the National Science Foundation (OCE-1633911).
    Description: 2017-07-31
    Keywords: Currents ; Acoustic measurements/effects ; Data processing ; Data quality control ; Profilers ; Inverse methods
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 633-647, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0089.1.
    Description: Interannual variability in the volumetric water mass distribution within the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre is described in relation to variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The relative roles of diabatic and adiabatic processes in the volume and heat budgets of the subtropical gyre are investigated by projecting data into temperature coordinates as volumes of water using an Argo-based climatology and an ocean state estimate (ECCO version 4). This highlights that variations in the subtropical gyre volume budget are predominantly set by transport divergence in the gyre. A strong correlation between the volume anomaly due to transport divergence and the variability of both thermocline depth and Ekman pumping over the gyre suggests that wind-driven heave drives transport anomalies at the gyre boundaries. This wind-driven heaving contributes significantly to variations in the heat content of the gyre, as do anomalies in the air–sea fluxes. The analysis presented suggests that wind forcing plays an important role in driving interannual variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and that this variability can be unraveled from spatially distributed hydrographic observations using the framework presented here.
    Description: DGE was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council studentship award at the University of Southampton. JMT’s contribution was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant OCE-1332667). GF’s contribution was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation through Grant OCE-0961713 and by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration through Grant NA10OAR4310135. The contributions of JDZ and AJGN were supported by the NERC Grant ‘‘Climate scale analysis of air and water masses’’ (NE/ K012932/1). ACNG gratefully acknowledges support from the Leverhulme Trust, the Royal Society, and the Wolfson Foundation. LY was supported by NASA Ocean Vector Wind Science Team (OVWST) activities under Grant NNA10AO86G.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Ekman pumping/transport ; Ocean circulation ; Water masses ; Inverse methods
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 1291-1305, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0160.1.
    Description: Along-stream variations in the dynamics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) impact heat and tracer transport, regulate interbasin exchange, and influence closure of the overturning circulation. Topography is primarily responsible for generating deviations from zonal-mean properties, mainly through standing meanders associated with regions of high eddy kinetic energy. Here, an idealized channel model is used to explore the spatial distribution of energy exchange and its relationship to eddy geometry, as characterized by both eddy momentum and eddy buoyancy fluxes. Variations in energy exchange properties occur not only between standing meander and quasi-zonal jet regions, but throughout the meander itself. Both barotropic and baroclinic stability properties, as well as the magnitude of energy exchange terms, undergo abrupt changes along the path of the ACC. These transitions are captured by diagnosing eddy fluxes of energy and by adopting the eddy geometry framework. The latter, typically applied to barotropic stability properties, is applied here in the depth–along-stream plane to include information about both barotropic and baroclinic stability properties of the flow. These simulations reveal that eddy momentum fluxes, and thus barotropic instability, play a leading role in the energy budget within a standing meander. This result suggests that baroclinic instability alone cannot capture the dynamics of ACC standing meanders, a challenge for models where eddy fluxes are parameterized.
    Description: The authors all acknowledge support from NSF OCE-1235488. MKY also acknowledges support from the AMS Graduate Student Fellowship.
    Description: 2017-10-12
    Keywords: Southern Ocean ; Channel flows ; Stability ; Topographic effects ; Eddies ; Mesoscale models
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 34 (2017): 415-427, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0069.1.
    Description: Sensors and instruments for basic oceanographic properties are becoming increasingly sophisticated, which both simplifies and complicates their use in field studies. This increased sophistication disproportionately affects smaller-scale observational efforts that are less likely to be well supported technically but which need to integrate instruments, sensors, and commonly needed peripheral devices in ways not envisioned by their manufacturers. A general-purpose hardware and software framework was developed around a widely used family of low-power microcontrollers to lessen the technical expertise and customization required to integrate sensors, instruments, and peripherals, and thus simplify such integration scenarios. Both the hardware and associated firmware development tools provide a range of features often required in such scenarios: serial data interfaces, analog inputs and outputs, logic lines and power-switching capability, nonvolatile storage of data and parameters for sampling or configuration, and serial communication interfaces to supervisory or telemetry systems. The microcontroller and additional components needed to implement this integration framework are small enough to encapsulate in standard cable splices, creating a small form factor “smart cable” that can be readily wired and programmed for a range of integration needs. An application programming library developed for this hardware provides skeleton code for functions commonly desired when integrating sensors, instruments, and peripherals. This minimizes the firmware programming expertise needed to apply this framework in many integration scenarios and thus streamlines the development of firmware for different field applications. Envisioned applications are in field programs where significant technical instrumentation expertise is unavailable or not cost effective.
    Description: Link Foundation Ocean Engineering graduate fellowship to SRL. Subsequent development effort was supported by a NASA New Investigator Award to SRL (NNX10AQ83G) and by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution through its Assistant Scientist Endowed Support, a Cecil H. and Ida M. Green Technology Innovation Award, and the Investment in Science Program.
    Keywords: Instrumentation/sensors
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 33 (2016): 2373-2384, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0024.1.
    Description: A long-path methane (CH4) sensor was developed and field deployed using an 8-μm quantum cascade laser. The high optical power (40 mW) of the laser allowed for path-integrated measurements of ambient CH4 at total pathlengths from 100 to 1200 m with the use of a retroreflector. Wavelength modulation spectroscopy was used to make high-precision measurements of atmospheric pressure–broadened CH4 absorption over these long distances. An in-line reference cell with higher harmonic detection provided metrics of system stability in rapidly changing and harsh environments. The system consumed less than 100 W of power and required no consumables. The measurements intercompared favorably (typically less than 5% difference) with a commercial in situ methane sensor when accounting for the different spatiotemporal scales of the measurements. The sensor was field deployed for 2 weeks at an arctic lake to examine the robustness of the approach in harsh field environments. Short-term precision over a 458-m pathlength was 10 ppbv at 1 Hz, equivalent to a signal from a methane enhancement above background of 5 ppmv in a 1-m length. The sensor performed well in a range of harsh environmental conditions, including snow, rain, wind, and changing temperatures. These field measurements demonstrate the capabilities of the approach for use in detecting large but highly variable emissions in arctic environments.
    Description: The authors gratefully acknowledge funding for this work by MIRTHE through NSF-ERC Grant EEC-0540832. D. J. Miller acknowledges support by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant DGE-0646086. K. Sun acknowledges support by the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship IIP-1263579.
    Description: 2017-05-01
    Keywords: Arctic ; North America ; Greenhouse gases ; In situ atmospheric observations ; Instrumentation/sensors ; Field experiments
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98 (2017): 737-752, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0057.1.
    Description: For decades oceanographers have understood the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to be primarily driven by changes in the production of deep-water formation in the subpolar and subarctic North Atlantic. Indeed, current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of an AMOC slowdown in the twenty-first century based on climate models are attributed to the inhibition of deep convection in the North Atlantic. However, observational evidence for this linkage has been elusive: there has been no clear demonstration of AMOC variability in response to changes in deep-water formation. The motivation for understanding this linkage is compelling, since the overturning circulation has been shown to sequester heat and anthropogenic carbon in the deep ocean. Furthermore, AMOC variability is expected to impact this sequestration as well as have consequences for regional and global climates through its effect on the poleward transport of warm water. Motivated by the need for a mechanistic understanding of the AMOC, an international community has assembled an observing system, Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP), to provide a continuous record of the transbasin fluxes of heat, mass, and freshwater, and to link that record to convective activity and water mass transformation at high latitudes. OSNAP, in conjunction with the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) at 26°N and other observational elements, will provide a comprehensive measure of the three-dimensional AMOC and an understanding of what drives its variability. The OSNAP observing system was fully deployed in the summer of 2014, and the first OSNAP data products are expected in the fall of 2017.
    Description: The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF; OCE-1259102, OCE-1259103, OCE-1259618, OCE-1258823, OCE-1259210, OCE-1259398, OCE-0136215, and OCE-1005697); the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); the WHOI Ocean and Climate Change Institute (OCCI), the WHOI Independent Research and Development (IRD) Program, and the WHOI Postdoctoral Scholar Program; the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC; NE/K010875/1, NE/K010700/1, R8-H12-85, FASTNEt NE/I030224/1, NE/K010972/1, NE/K012932/1, and NE/M018024/1); the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (NACLIM project, 308299 and 610055); the German Federal Ministry and Education German Research RACE Program; the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC; RGPIN 227438-09, RGPIN 04357, and RG-PCC 433898); Fisheries and Oceans Canada; the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC; 41521091, U1406401); the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China; the French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea (IFREMER); the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS); the French National Institute for Earth Sciences and Astronomy (INSU); the French national program LEFE; and the French Oceanographic Fleet (TGIR FOF).
    Description: 2017-10-24
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 485-498, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0175.1.
    Description: Dense oceanic overflows descend over the rough topography of the continental slope entraining and mixing with surrounding waters. The associated dilution dictates the fate of these currents and thus is of fundamental importance to the formation of deep water masses. The entrainment in a dense current flowing down a sloping bottom in a rotating homogeneous fluid is investigated using laboratory experiments, focusing on the influence of the bottom roughness on the flow dynamics. The roughness is idealized by an array of vertical rigid cylinders and both their spacing and height are varied as well as the inclination of the sloping bottom. The presence of the roughness is generally observed to decelerate the dense current, with a consequent reduction of the Froude number, when compared to the smooth bottom configuration. However, the dilution of the dense current due to mixing with the ambient fluid is enhanced by the roughness elements, especially for low Froude numbers. When the entrainment due to shear instability at the interface between the dense current and the ambient fluid is low, the additional turbulence and mixing arising at the bottom of the dense current due to the roughness elements strongly affects the dilution of the current. Finally, a strong dependence of the entrainment parameter on the Reynolds number is observed.
    Description: Support to C. C. was given by the National Science Foundation Project OCE- 1333174. Support to L. O. during her internship at WHOI was provided by the Lions Club ‘‘Napoli Megaride’’ and the Zoological Station Anton Dohrn through the Paolo Brancaccio fellowship (2012).
    Description: 2017-08-20
    Keywords: Density currents ; Entrainment ; Density currents ; Mixing
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 6757-6769, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0461.1.
    Description: Arctic sea ice area (SIA) during late summer and early fall decreased substantially over the last four decades, and its decline accelerated beginning in the early 2000s. Statistical analyses of observations show that enhanced poleward moisture transport from the North Pacific to the Arctic Ocean contributed to the accelerated SIA decrease during the most recent period. As a consequence, specific humidity in the Arctic Pacific sector significantly increased along with an increase of downward longwave radiation beginning in 2002, which led to a significant acceleration in the decline of SIA in the Arctic Pacific sector. The resulting sea ice loss led to increased evaporation in the Arctic Ocean, resulting in a further increase of the specific humidity in mid-to-late fall, thus acting as a positive feedback to the sea ice loss. The overall set of processes is also found in a long control simulation of a coupled climate model.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant NRF-2009-C1AAA001-0093, funded by the Korean government (MEST), to HJL, YHK, and MOK. S-WY is supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMIPA2015-1042. Y-OK is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DE-SC0014433) and National Science Foundation (OCE-1242989). WP acknowledges support from the BMBF project CLIMPRE InterDec (FKZ: 01LP1609B).
    Description: 2018-01-26
    Keywords: Pacific decadal oscillation ; Sea surface temperature ; Humidity ; Ice loss/growth
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Weather and Forecasting 32 (2017): 1659-1666, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-17-0076.1.
    Description: Although rip currents are a major hazard for beachgoers, the relationship between the danger to swimmers and the physical properties of rip current circulation is not well understood. Here, the relationship between statistical model estimates of hazardous rip current likelihood and in situ velocity observations is assessed. The statistical model is part of a forecasting system that is being made operational by the National Weather Service to predict rip current hazard likelihood as a function of wave conditions and water level. The temporal variability of rip current speeds (offshore-directed currents) observed on an energetic sandy beach is correlated with the hindcasted hazard likelihood for a wide range of conditions. High likelihoods and rip current speeds occurred for low water levels, nearly shore-normal wave angles, and moderate or larger wave heights. The relationship between modeled hazard likelihood and the frequency with which rip current speeds exceeded a threshold was assessed for a range of threshold speeds. The frequency of occurrence of high (threshold exceeding) rip current speeds is consistent with the modeled probability of hazard, with a maximum Brier skill score of 0.65 for a threshold speed of 0.23 m s−1, and skill scores greater than 0.60 for threshold speeds between 0.15 and 0.30 m s−1. The results suggest that rip current speed may be an effective proxy for hazard level and that speeds greater than ~0.2 m s−1 may be hazardous to swimmers.
    Description: Funding was provided by the National Science Foundation (1232910, 1332705, and 1536365), and by National Security Science and Engineering and Vannevar Bush Faculty Fellowships funded by the assistant secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering.
    Description: 2018-02-28
    Keywords: Coastlines ; Coastal flows ; Waves, oceanic ; Forecast verification/skill ; Probability forecasts/models/distribution ; Statistical forecasting
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 1061-1075, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0248.1.
    Description: A major challenge in modeling the circulation over coral reefs is uncertainty in the drag coefficient because existing estimates span two orders of magnitude. Current and pressure measurements from five coral reefs are used to estimate drag coefficients based on depth-average flow, assuming a balance between the cross-reef pressure gradient and the bottom stress. At two sites wind stress is a significant term in the cross-reef momentum balance and is included in estimating the drag coefficient. For the five coral reef sites and a previous laboratory study, estimated drag coefficients increase as the water depth decreases consistent with open channel flow theory. For example, for a typical coral reef hydrodynamic roughness of 5 cm, observational estimates, and the theory indicate that the drag coefficient decreases from 0.4 in 20 cm of water to 0.005 in 10 m of water. Synthesis of results from the new field observations with estimates from previous field and laboratory studies indicate that coral reef drag coefficients range from 0.2 to 0.005 and hydrodynamic roughnesses generally range from 2 to 8 cm. While coral reef drag coefficients depend on factors such as physical roughness and surface waves, a substantial fraction of the scatter in estimates of coral reef drag coefficients is due to variations in water depth.
    Description: The Red Sea field program was supported by Awards USA 00002 and KSA 00011 made by KAUST to S. Lentz and J. Churchill. The Palau field program was funded by NSF Award OCE-1220529.
    Keywords: Ocean ; Currents ; Wind stress ; Boundary layer ; Sea level ; Tides
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 1789-1797, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0240.1.
    Description: Internal solitary waves are commonly observed in the coastal ocean where they are known to contribute to mass transport and turbulent mixing. While these waves are often generated by cross-isobath barotropic tidal currents, novel observations are presented suggesting that internal solitary waves result from along-isobath tidal flows over channel-shoal bathymetry. Mooring and ship-based velocity, temperature, and salinity data were collected over a cross-channel section in a stratified estuary. The data show that Ekman forcing on along-channel tidal currents drives lateral circulation, which interacts with the stratified water over the deep channel to generate a supercritical mode-2 internal lee wave. This lee wave propagates onto the shallow shoal and evolves into a group of internal solitary waves of elevation due to nonlinear steepening. These observations highlight the potential importance of three-dimensionality on the conversion of tidal flow to internal waves in the rotating ocean.
    Description: National Science Foundation (OCE-1061609)
    Description: 2018-01-03
    Keywords: Estuaries ; Internal waves ; Solitary waves
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 8061-8080, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0834.1.
    Description: During the southwest monsoons, the Arabian Sea (AS) develops highly energetic mesoscale variability associated with the Somali Current (SC), Great Whirl (GW), and cold filaments (CF). The resultant high-amplitude anomalies and gradients of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface currents modify the wind stress, triggering the so-called mesoscale coupled feedbacks. This study uses a high-resolution regional coupled model with a novel coupling procedure that separates spatial scales of the air–sea coupling to show that SST and surface currents are coupled to the atmosphere at distinct spatial scales, exerting distinct dynamic influences. The effect of mesoscale SST–wind interaction is manifested most strongly in wind work and Ekman pumping over the GW, primarily affecting the position of GW and the separation latitude of the SC. If this effect is suppressed, enhanced wind work and a weakened Ekman pumping dipole cause the GW to extend northeastward, delaying the SC separation by 1°. Current–wind interaction, in contrast, is related to the amount of wind energy input. When it is suppressed, especially as a result of background-scale currents, depth-integrated kinetic energy, both the mean and eddy, is significantly enhanced. Ekman pumping velocity over the GW is overly negative because of a lack of vorticity that offsets the wind stress curl, further invigorating the GW. Moreover, significant changes in time-mean SST and evaporation are generated in response to the current–wind interaction, accompanied by a noticeable southward shift in the Findlater Jet. The significant increase in moisture transport in the central AS implies that air–sea interaction mediated by the surface current is a potentially important process for simulation and prediction of the monsoon rainfall.
    Description: This work is supported by ONR (N00014-15-1-2588 and N00014-17-1-2398), NSF (OCE- 1419235), and NOAA (NA15OAR4310176).
    Description: 2018-03-08
    Keywords: Indian Ocean ; Wind stress ; Ekman pumping ; Monsoons ; Air-sea interaction ; Coupled models
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 6611-6627, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0291.1.
    Description: The interannual fluctuations of the equatorial thermocline are usually associated with El Niño activity, but the linkage between the thermocline modes and El Niño is still under debate. In the present study, a mode function decomposition method is applied to the equatorial Pacific thermocline, and the results show that the first two dominant modes (M1 and M2) identify two distinct characteristics of the equatorial Pacific thermocline. The M1 reflects a basinwide zonally tilted thermocline related to the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, with shoaling (deepening) in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. The M2 represents the central Pacific (CP) El Niño, characterized by a V-shaped equatorial Pacific thermocline (i.e., deep in the central equatorial Pacific and shallow on both the western and eastern boundaries). Furthermore, both modes are stable and significant on the interannual time scale, and manifest as the major feature of the thermocline fluctuations associated with the two types of El Niño events. As good proxies of EP and CP El Niño events, thermocline-based indices clearly reveal the inherent characteristics of subsurface ocean responses during the evolution of El Niño events, which are characterized by the remarkable zonal eastward propagation of equatorial subsurface ocean temperature anomalies, particularly during the CP El Niño. Further analysis of the mixed layer heat budget suggests that the air–sea interactions determine the establishment and development stages of the CP El Niño, while the thermocline feedback is vital for its further development. These results highlight the key influence of equatorial Pacific thermocline fluctuations in conjunction with the air–sea interactions, on the CP El Niño.
    Description: This work is jointly supported by the Funds for Creative Research Groups of China (Grant 41521005), the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (GYHY201506013), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant XDA11010301), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41406033, 41475057, 41376024, 41676013) and the CAS/SAFEA International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams.
    Description: 2018-01-21
    Keywords: Thermocline ; El Nino
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 3549-3562, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0140.1.
    Description: The equatorial deep jets (EDJs) are a ubiquitous feature of the equatorial oceans; in the Atlantic Ocean, they are the dominant mode of interannual variability of the zonal flow at intermediate depth. On the basis of more than 10 years of moored observations of zonal velocity at 23°W, the vertically propagating EDJs are best described as superimposed oscillations of the 13th to the 23rd baroclinic modes with a dominant oscillation period for all modes of 1650 days. This period is close to the resonance period of the respective gravest equatorial basin mode for the dominant vertical modes 16 and 17. It is argued that since the equatorial basin mode is composed of linear equatorial waves, a linear reduced-gravity model can be employed for each baroclinic mode, driven by spatially homogeneous zonal forcing oscillating with the EDJ period. The fit of the model solutions to observations at 23°W yields a basinwide reconstruction of the EDJs and the associated vertical structure of their forcing. From the resulting vertical profile of mean power input and vertical energy flux on the equator, it follows that the EDJs are locally maintained over a considerable depth range, from 500 to 2500 m, with the maximum power input and vertical energy flux at 1300 m. The strong dissipation closely ties the apparent vertical propagation of energy to the vertical distribution of power input and, together with the EDJs’ prevailing downward phase propagation, requires the phase of the forcing of the EDJs to propagate downward.
    Description: MC is grateful for support from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) Miklip project through the MODINI project. RJG and PB are grateful for continuing support from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. This study has also been supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft as part of the Sonderforschungsbereich 754 “Climate-Biogeochemistry Interactions in the Tropical Ocean,” through several research cruises with R/V Meteor and R/V Maria S. Merian by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research as part of the cooperative projects “RACE” and “SACUS” and by European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007–2013) under Grant Agreement 603521 PREFACE project. Additional support for the observations and JMT’s contributions were provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation (OCE-0850175).
    Keywords: Tropics ; Forcing ; Shallow-water equations ; Waves, oceanic ; Oscillations ; Interannual variability
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 1205-1220, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0258.1.
    Description: The linkage among total exchange flow, entrainment, and diffusive salt flux in estuaries is derived analytically using salinity coordinates, revealing the simple but important relationship between total exchange flow and mixing. Mixing is defined and quantified in this paper as the dissipation of salinity variance. The method uses the conservation of volume and salt to quantify and distinguish the diahaline transport of volume (i.e., entrainment) and diahaline diffusive salt flux. A numerical model of the Hudson estuary is used as an example of the application of the method in a realistic estuary with a persistent but temporally variable exchange flow. A notable finding of this analysis is that the total exchange flow and diahaline salt flux are out of phase with respect to the spring–neap cycle. Total exchange flow reaches its maximum near minimum neap tide, but diahaline salt transport reaches its maximum during the maximum spring tide. This phase shift explains the strong temporal variation of stratification and estuarine salt content through the spring–neap cycle. In addition to quantifying temporal variation, the method reveals the spatial variation of total exchange flow, entrainment, and diffusive salt flux through the estuary. For instance, the analysis of the Hudson estuary indicates that diffusive salt flux is intensified in the wider cross sections. The method also provides a simple means of quantifying numerical mixing in ocean models because it provides an estimate of the total dissipation of salinity variance, which is the sum of mixing due to the turbulence closure and numerical mixing.
    Description: T. Wang was supported by the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research (Grant SKLEC-KF201509), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant 2017B03514), and the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant XDA11010203). W. R. Geyer was supported by NSF Grant OCE 0926427 and ONR Grant N00014-16-1-2948. P. MacCready was supported by NSF Grant OCE-1634148.
    Description: 2017-09-14
    Keywords: Baroclinic flows ; Conservation equations ; Diapycnal mixing ; Diffusion ; Entrainment ; Mixing
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 4965-4981, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0228.1.
    Description: To improve the understanding of storm tracks and western boundary current (WBC) interactions, surface storm tracks in 12 CMIP5 models are examined against ERA-Interim. All models capture an equatorward displacement toward the WBCs in the locations of the surface storm tracks’ maxima relative to those at 850 hPa. An estimated storm-track metric is developed to analyze the location of the surface storm track. It shows that the equatorward shift is influenced by both the lower-tropospheric instability and the baroclinicity. Basin-scale spatial correlations between models and ERA-Interim for the storm tracks, near-surface stability, SST gradient, and baroclinicity are calculated to test the ability of the GCMs’ match reanalysis. An intermodel comparison of the spatial correlations suggests that differences (relative to ERA-Interim) in the position of the storm track aloft have the strongest influence on differences in the surface storm-track position. However, in the North Atlantic, biases in the surface storm track north of the Gulf Stream are related to biases in the SST. An analysis of the strength of the storm tracks shows that most models generate a weaker storm track at the surface than 850 hPa, consistent with observations, although some outliers are found. A linear relationship exists among the models between storm-track amplitudes at 500 and 850 hPa, but not between 850 hPa and the surface. In total, the work reveals a dual role in forcing the surface storm track from aloft and from the ocean surface in CMIP5 models, with the atmosphere having the larger relative influence.
    Description: JFB was partially supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections program (Grant NA15OAR4310094). Y-OK was supported by NSF Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Science Climate and Large-scale Dynamics Program (AGS-1355339), NASA Physical Oceanography Program (NNX13AM59G), and DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (DE-SC0014433). RJS was supported by DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research (DE-SC0006743) and NSF Directorate for Geosciences Division of Ocean Sciences (1419584),
    Description: 2017-10-03
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Storm tracks
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 1921-1939, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0146.1.
    Description: The role of surface gravity waves in structuring the air–sea momentum flux is examined in the middle reaches of Chesapeake Bay. Observed wave spectra showed that wave direction in Chesapeake Bay is strongly correlated with basin geometry. Waves preferentially developed in the direction of maximum fetch, suggesting that dominant wave frequencies may be commonly and persistently misaligned with local wind forcing. Direct observations from an ultrasonic anemometer and vertical array of ADVs show that the magnitude and direction of stress changed across the air–sea interface, suggesting that a stress divergence occurred at or near the water surface. Using a numerical wave model in combination with direct flux measurements, the air–sea momentum flux was partitioned between the surface wave field and the mean flow. Results indicate that the surface wave field can store or release a significant fraction of the total momentum flux depending on the direction of the wind. When wind blew across dominant fetch axes, the generation of short gravity waves stored as much as 40% of the total wind stress. Accounting for the storage of momentum in the surface wave field closed the air–sea momentum budget. Agreement between the direction of Lagrangian shear and the direction of the stress vector in the mixed surface layer suggests that the observed directional difference was due to the combined effect of breaking waves producing downward sweeps of momentum in the direction of wave propagation and the straining of that vorticity field in a manner similar to Langmuir turbulence.
    Description: This work was supported by National Science Foundation Grants OCE-1061609 and OCE-1339032.
    Description: 2018-01-13
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Coastal flows ; Mixing ; Momentum ; Wind stress ; Wind waves
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 2611-2630, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0259.1.
    Description: This study reports the results of large-eddy simulations of an axisymmetric turbulent buoyant plume in a stratified fluid. The configuration used is an idealized model of the plume generated by a subglacial discharge at the base of a tidewater glacier with an ambient stratification typical of Greenland fjords. The plume is discharged from a round source of various diameters and characteristic stratifications for summer and winter are considered. The classical theory for the integral parameters of a turbulent plume in a homogeneous fluid gives accurate predictions in the weakly stratified lower layer up to the pycnocline, and the plume dynamics are not sensitive to changes in the source diameter. In winter, when the stratification is similar to an idealized two-layer case, turbulent entrainment and generation of internal waves by the plume top are in agreement with the theoretical and numerical results obtained for turbulent jets in a two-layer stratification. In summer, instead, the stratification is more complex and turbulent entrainment by the plume top is significantly reduced. The subsurface layer in summer is characterized by a strong density gradient and the oscillating plume generates internal waves that might serve as an indicator of submerged plumes not penetrating to the surface.
    Description: This work was supported by Linné FLOW Centre at KTH and the Academy of Finland Centre of Excellence program (Grant 307331) (E. E.) and VR Swedish Research Council, Outstanding Young Researcher Award, Grant VR 2014-5001 (L. B.). Support to C. C. was given by the NSF Project OCE-1434041.
    Description: 2018-04-26
    Keywords: Buoyancy ; Internal waves ; Turbulence ; Jets ; Oscillations ; Large eddy simulations
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 2479-2498, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0167.1.
    Description: The generation of trapped and radiating internal tides around Izu‐Oshima Island located off Sagami Bay, Japan, is investigated using the three-dimensional Stanford Unstructured Nonhydrostatic Terrain-following Adaptive Navier–Stokes Simulator (SUNTANS) that is validated with observations of isotherm displacements in shallow water. The model is forced by barotropic tides, which generate strong baroclinic internal tides in the study region. Model results showed that when diurnal K1 barotropic tides dominate, resonance of a trapped internal Kelvin wave leads to large-amplitude internal tides in shallow waters on the coast. This resonance produces diurnal motions that are much stronger than the semidiurnal motions. The weaker, freely propagating, semidiurnal internal tides are generated on the western side of the island, where the M2 internal tide beam angle matches the topographic slope. The internal wave energy flux due to the diurnal internal tides is much higher than that of the semidiurnal tides in the study region. Although the diurnal internal tide energy is trapped, this study shows that steepening of the Kelvin waves produces high-frequency internal tides that radiate from the island, thus acting as a mechanism to extract energy from the diurnal motions.
    Description: This study was supported by JST CREST Grant Number JPRMJCR12A6.
    Description: 2018-04-12
    Keywords: Pacific Ocean ; Internal waves ; Kelvin waves ; In situ oceanic observations ; Baroclinic models ; Ocean models
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98 (2017): 2429-2454, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0030.1.
    Description: Diapycnal mixing plays a primary role in the thermodynamic balance of the ocean and, consequently, in oceanic heat and carbon uptake and storage. Though observed mixing rates are on average consistent with values required by inverse models, recent attention has focused on the dramatic spatial variability, spanning several orders of magnitude, of mixing rates in both the upper and deep ocean. Away from ocean boundaries, the spatiotemporal patterns of mixing are largely driven by the geography of generation, propagation, and dissipation of internal waves, which supply much of the power for turbulent mixing. Over the last 5 years and under the auspices of U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR), a National Science Foundation (NSF)- and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-supported Climate Process Team has been engaged in developing, implementing, and testing dynamics-based parameterizations for internal wave–driven turbulent mixing in global ocean models. The work has primarily focused on turbulence 1) near sites of internal tide generation, 2) in the upper ocean related to wind-generated near inertial motions, 3) due to internal lee waves generated by low-frequency mesoscale flows over topography, and 4) at ocean margins. Here, we review recent progress, describe the tools developed, and discuss future directions.
    Description: We are grateful to U.S. CLIVAR for their leadership in instigating and facilitating the Climate Process Team program. We are indebted to NSF and NOAA for sponsoring the CPT series.
    Description: 2018-06-01
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 1873-1896, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0264.1.
    Description: Midocean ridge fracture zones channel bottom waters in the eastern Brazil Basin in regions of intensified deep mixing. The mechanisms responsible for the deep turbulent mixing inside the numerous midocean fracture zones, whether affected by the local or the nonlocal canyon topography, are still subject to debate. To discriminate those mechanisms and to discern the canyon mean flow, two moorings sampled a deep canyon over and away from a sill/contraction. A 2-layer exchange flow, accelerated at the sill, transports 0.04–0.10-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) up canyon in the deep layer. At the sill, the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy ε increases as measured from microstructure profilers and as inferred from a parameterization of vertical kinetic energy. Cross-sill density and microstructure transects reveal an overflow potentially hydraulically controlled and modulated by fortnightly tides. During spring to neap tides, ε varies from O(10−9) to O(10−10) W kg−1 below 3500 m around the 2-layer interface. The detection of temperature overturns during tidal flow reversal, which almost fully opposes the deep up-canyon mean flow, confirms the canyon middepth enhancement of ε. The internal tide energy flux, particularly enhanced at the sill, compares with the lower-layer energy loss across the sill. Throughout the canyon away from the sill, near-inertial waves with downward-propagating energy dominate the internal wave field. The present study underlines the intricate pattern of the deep turbulent mixing affected by the mean flow, internal tides, and near-inertial waves.
    Description: The DoMORE project was supported by NSF under the Grant OCE-1235094.
    Description: 2018-01-13
    Keywords: Abyssal circulation ; Bottom currents/bottom water ; Diapycnal mixing
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  • 30
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    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 2531-2543, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-17-0051.1.
    Description: Argo floats are used to investigate Labrador Sea overturning and its variability on seasonal time scales. This is the first application of Argo floats to estimate overturning in a deep-water formation region in the North Atlantic. Unlike hydrographic measurements, which are typically confined to the summer season, floats offer the advantage of collecting data in all seasons. Seasonal composite potential density and absolute geostrophic velocity sections across the mouth of the Labrador Sea assembled from float profiles and trajectories at 1000 m are used to calculate the horizontal and overturning circulations. The overturning exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle; in depth space the overturning doubles throughout the course of the year, and in density space it triples. The largest overturning [1.2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in depth space and 3.9 Sv in density space] occurs in spring and corresponds to the outflow of recently formed Labrador Sea Water. The overturning decreases through summer and reaches a minimum in winter (0.6 Sv in depth space and 1.2 Sv in density space). The robustness of the Argo seasonal overturning is supported by a comparison to an overturning estimate based on hydrographic data from the AR7W line.
    Description: NSF OCE-1459474 supported this work.
    Description: 2018-04-17
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Meridional overturning circulation ; In situ oceanic observations ; Seasonal cycle
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 2631-2646, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-17-0062.1.
    Description: Data from a mooring array deployed north of Denmark Strait from September 2011 to August 2012 are used to investigate the structure and variability of the shelfbreak East Greenland Current (EGC). The shelfbreak EGC is a surface-intensified current situated just offshore of the east Greenland shelf break flowing southward through Denmark Strait. This study identified two dominant spatial modes of variability within the current: a pulsing mode and a meandering mode, both of which were most pronounced in fall and winter. A particularly energetic event in November 2011 was related to a reversal of the current for nearly a month. In addition to the seasonal signal, the current was associated with periods of enhanced eddy kinetic energy and increased variability on shorter time scales. The data indicate that the current is, for the most part, barotropically stable but subject to baroclinic instability from September to March. By contrast, in summer the current is mainly confined to the shelf break with decreased eddy kinetic energy and minimal baroclinic conversion. No other region of the Nordic Seas displays higher levels of eddy kinetic energy than the shelfbreak EGC north of Denmark Strait during fall. This appears to be due to the large velocity variability on mesoscale time scales generated by the instabilities. The mesoscale variability documented here may be a source of the variability observed at the Denmark Strait sill.
    Description: Support for this work was provided by the Norwegian Research Council under Grant Agreement 231647 (LH and KV) and the Bergen Research Foundation under Grant BFS2016REK01 (KV). Additional funding was provided by the National Science Foundation under Grants OCE-0959381 and OCE-1558742 (RP).
    Keywords: Ocean ; Arctic ; Boundary currents ; Currents ; Stability ; Oceanic variability
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 3661-3679, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0018.1.
    Description: A hydrostatic, coupled-mode, shallow-water model (CSW) is described and used to diagnose and simulate tidal dynamics in the greater Mid-Atlantic Bight region. The reduced-physics model incorporates realistic stratification and topography, internal tide forcing from a priori estimates of the surface tide, and advection terms that describe first-order interactions of internal tides with slowly varying mean flow and mean buoyancy fields and their respective shear. The model is validated via comparisons with semianalytic models and nonlinear primitive equation models in several idealized and realistic simulations that include internal tide interactions with topography and mean flows. Then, 24 simulations of internal tide generation and propagation in the greater Mid-Atlantic Bight region are used to diagnose significant internal tide interactions with the Gulf Stream. The simulations indicate that locally generated mode-one internal tides refract and/or reflect at the Gulf Stream. The redirected internal tides often reappear at the shelf break, where their onshore energy fluxes are intermittent (i.e., noncoherent with surface tide) because meanders in the Gulf Stream alter their precise location, phase, and amplitude. These results provide an explanation for anomalous onshore energy fluxes that were previously observed at the New Jersey shelf break and linked to the irregular generation of nonlinear internal waves.
    Description: We thank the National Science Foundation for support under Grant OCE-1061160 (ShelfIT) to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and under Grant OCE-1060430 to the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. PFJL and PJH also thank the Office of Naval Research for research support under Grants N00014-11-1-0701 (MURI-IODA), N00014-12-1-0944 (ONR6.2), and N00014-13-1-0518 (Multi-DA) to MIT.
    Description: 2017-06-14
    Keywords: Continental shelf/slope ; Inertia-gravity waves ; Internal waves ; Boundary currents ; Tides ; Baroclinic models
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 85-100, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0234.1.
    Description: Observations and analyses of two tidally recurring, oblique, internal hydraulic jumps at a stratified estuary mouth (Columbia River, Oregon/Washington) are presented. These hydraulic features have not previously been studied due to the challenges of both horizontally resolving the sharp gradients and temporally resolving their evolution in numerical models and traditional observation platforms. The jumps, both of which recurred during ebb, formed adjacent to two engineered lateral channel constrictions and were identified in marine radar image time series. Jump occurrence was corroborated by (i) a collocated sharp gradient in the surface currents measured via airborne along-track interferometric synthetic aperture radar and (ii) the transition from supercritical to subcritical flow in the cross-jump direction via shipborne velocity and density measurements. Using a two-layer approximation, observed jump angles at both lateral constrictions are shown to lie within the theoretical bounds given by the critical internal long-wave (Froude) angle and the arrested maximum-amplitude internal bore angle, respectively. Also, intratidal and intertidal variability of the jump angles are shown to be consistent with that expected from the two-layer model, applied to varying stratification and current speed over a range of tidal and river discharge conditions. Intratidal variability of the upchannel jump angle is similar under all observed conditions, whereas the downchannel jump angle shows an additional association with stratification and ebb velocity during the low discharge periods. The observations additionally indicate that the upchannel jump achieves a stable position that is collocated with a similarly oblique bathymetric slope.
    Description: We acknowledge the financial support of the Office of Naval Research under Awards N00014-10-1-0932 and N00014-13-1-0364.
    Description: 2017-07-04
    Keywords: Estuaries ; Baroclinic flows ; Internal waves ; Microwave observations ; Remote sensing
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 97 (2016): 2305-2327, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00274.1.
    Description: Well-known problems trouble coupled general circulation models of the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. Model climates are significantly more symmetric about the equator than is observed. Model sea surface temperatures are biased warm south and southeast of the equator, and the atmosphere is too rainy within a band south of the equator. Near-coastal eastern equatorial SSTs are too warm, producing a zonal SST gradient in the Atlantic opposite in sign to that observed. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Eastern Tropical Ocean Synthesis Working Group (WG) has pursued an updated assessment of coupled model SST biases, focusing on the surface energy balance components, on regional error sources from clouds, deep convection, winds, and ocean eddies; on the sensitivity to model resolution; and on remote impacts. Motivated by the assessment, the WG makes the following recommendations: 1) encourage identification of the specific parameterizations contributing to the biases in individual models, as these can be model dependent; 2) restrict multimodel intercomparisons to specific processes; 3) encourage development of high-resolution coupled models with a concurrent emphasis on parameterization development of finer-scale ocean and atmosphere features, including low clouds; 4) encourage further availability of all surface flux components from buoys, for longer continuous time periods, in persistently cloudy regions; and 5) focus on the eastern basin coastal oceanic upwelling regions, where further opportunities for observational–modeling synergism exist.
    Description: PZ, BK, and RM acknowledge support from NOAA Grant NA14OAR4310278, and PZ acknowledges support from NSF AGS-1233874. BM acknowledges support from the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science, Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-97ER62402. PC acknowledges support from U.S. NSF Grants OCE-1334707 and AGS-1462127, and NOAA Grant NA11OAR4310154. PC also acknowledges support from China’s National Basic Research Priorities Programme (2013CB956204) and the Natural Science Foundation of China (41222037 and 41221063). TF acknowledges support from NSF Grant OCE-0745508 and NASA Grant NNX14AM71G. PB acknowledges support from the BMBF SACUS (03G0837A) project. TT and PB acknowledge support from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7 20072013) under Grant Agreement 603521 for the PREFACE Project. ES and ZW acknowledge support from NSF AGS-1338427, NOAA NA14OAR4310160, and NASA NNX14AM19G; and ES is grateful for further support from the National Monsoon Mission, Ministry of Earth Sciences, India.
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 33 (2016): 2185-2203, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0095.1.
    Description: This study presents amended procedures to process and map data collected by pressure-sensor-equipped inverted echo sounders (PIESs) in western boundary current regions. The modifications to the existing methodology, applied to observations of the Kuroshio from a PIES array deployed northeast of Luzon, Philippines, consist of substituting a hydrography-based mean travel time field for the PIES-based mean field and using two distinct gravest empirical mode (GEM) lookup tables across the front that separate water masses of South China Sea and North Pacific origin. In addition, this study presents a method to use time-mean velocities from acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) to reference (or “level”) the PIES-recorded pressures in order to obtain time series of absolute geostrophic velocity. Results derived from the PIES observations processed with the hydrography-based mean field and two GEMs are compared with hydrographic profiles sampled by Seagliders during the PIES observation period and with current velocity measured concurrently by a collocated ADCP array. The updated processing scheme leads to a 41% error decrease in the determination of the thermocline depth across the current, a 22% error decrease in baroclinic current velocity shear, and a 61% error decrease in baroclinic volume transports. The absolute volume transport time series derived from the leveled PIES array compares well with that obtained directly from the ADCPs with a root-mean-square difference of 3.0 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s–1), which is mainly attributed to the influence of ageostrophic processes on the ADCP-measured velocities that cannot be calculated from the PIES observations.
    Description: The authors are supported by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research Initiative entitled Origins of the Kuroshio and Mindanao Currents (ONR Grant N00014-10-1-0397). MA was supported by ONR Grants N00014-15-12593 and N00014-16-1-2668. CL was supported by ONR Grant N00014-10-0308. SJ was supported by MOST Grants NSC 101-2611-M-002-018-MY3, MOST 103-2611-M-002-011, and MOST 105-2119-M-002-042.
    Description: 2017-04-05
    Keywords: Boundary currents ; Data processing ; In situ oceanic observations ; Inverse methods ; Optimization ; Time series
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 34 (2017): 1713-1721, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0258.1.
    Description: Data collected with acoustic Doppler current profilers installed on CTD rosettes and lowered through the water column [lowered ADCP (LADCP) systems] are routinely used to derive full-depth profiles of ocean velocity. In addition to the uncertainties arising from random noise in the along-beam velocity measurements, LADCP-derived velocities are commonly contaminated by bias errors due to imperfectly measured instrument attitude (heading, pitch, and roll). Of particular concern are the heading measurements, because it is not usually feasible to calibrate the internal ADCP compasses with the instruments installed on a CTD rosette, away from the magnetic disturbances of the ship. Heading data from dual-headed LADCP systems, which consist of upward- and downward-pointing ADCPs installed on the same rosette, commonly indicate heading-dependent compass errors with amplitudes exceeding 10°. In an attempt to reduce LADCP velocity errors, several dozen profiles of simultaneous LADCP and magnetometer/accelerometer data were collected in the Gulf of Mexico. Agreement between the LADCP profiles and simultaneous shipboard velocity measurements improves significantly when the former are processed with external attitude measurements. Another set of LADCP profiles with external attitude data was collected in a region of the Arctic Ocean where the horizontal geomagnetic field is too weak for the ADCP compasses to work reliably. Good agreement between shipboard velocity measurements and Arctic LADCP profiles collected at magnetic dip angles exceeding and processed with external attitude measurements indicate that high-quality velocity profiles can be obtained close to the magnetic poles.
    Description: Part of this research was made possible by a grant from the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative to support the Ecosystem Impacts of Oil and Gas Inputs to the Gulf (ECOGIG-2) research consortium. Funding for acquisition of the 2015 Arctic data was provided by NSF (1203473 and 1249133) and NOAA (NA15OAR4310155) under the NABOS-II program.
    Keywords: Ocean ; Arctic ; Algorithms ; In situ oceanic observations ; Measurements ; Profilers, oceanic
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 34 (2017): 1679-1691, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0162.1.
    Description: For direction-finding high-frequency (HF) radar systems, the correct separation of backscattered spectral energy due to Bragg resonant waves from that due to more complex double-scattering represents a critical first step toward attaining accurate estimates of surface currents from the range-dependent radar backscatter. Existing methods to identify this “first order” region of the spectra, generally sufficient for lower-frequency radars and low-velocity or low-surface gravity wave conditions, are more likely to fail in higher-frequency systems or locations with more variable current, wave, or noise regimes, leading to elevated velocity errors. An alternative methodology is presented that uses a single and globally relevant smoothing length scale, careful pretreatment of the spectra, and marker-controlled watershed segmentation, an image processing technique, to separate areas of spectral energy due to surface currents from areas of spectral energy due to more complex scattering by the wave field or background noise present. Applied to a number of HF radar datasets with a range of operating frequencies and characteristic issues, the new methodology attains a higher percentage of successful first-order identification, particularly during complex current and wave conditions. As operational radar systems continue to expand to more systematically cover areas of high marine traffic, close approaches to ports and harbors, or offshore energy installations, use of this type of updated methodology will become increasingly important to attain accurate current estimates that serve both research and operational interests.
    Description: This analysis was supported by internal funds from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
    Description: 2018-02-11
    Keywords: Ocean circulation ; Waves, oceanic ; Data processing ; Radars/Radar observations ; Remote sensing ; Pattern detection
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  • 38
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    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 3599-3621, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0085.1.
    Description: At continental margins, energetic deep-ocean eddies can transport shelf water offshore in filaments that wrap around the eddy. One example is that of Gulf Stream warm-core rings interacting with the Mid-Atlantic Bight shelf. The rate at which shelf water is exported in these filaments is a major unknown in regional budgets of volume, heat, and salt. This unknown transport is constrained using a series of idealized primitive equation numerical experiments wherein a surface-intensified anticyclonic eddy interacts with idealized shelf–slope topography. There is no shelfbreak front in these experiments, and shelf water is tracked using a passive tracer. When anticyclones interact with shelf–slope topography, they suffer apparent intrusions of shelf–slope water, resulting in a subsurface maximum in offshore transport. The simulations help construct an approximate model for the filament of exported water that originates inshore of any given isobath. This model is then used to derive an expression for the total volume of shelf–slope water transported by the eddy across that isobath. The transport scales with water depth, radius, and azimuthal velocity scale of the eddy. The resulting expression can be used with satellite-derived eddy properties to estimate approximate real-world transports ignoring the presence of a shelfbreak front. The expression assumes that the eddy’s edge is at the shelf break, a condition not always satisfied by real eddies.
    Description: The research presented here was funded by NSF Grants OCE-1059632 and OCE-1433953. Funding support from the Academic Programs Office, and WHOI is also gratefully acknowledged.
    Description: 2017-06-08
    Keywords: Continental shelf/slope ; Advection ; Dynamics ; Eddies ; Topographic effects
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 29 (2016): 8317-8331, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0109.1.
    Description: A simple analytic model is developed to represent the offshore decay of cold sea surface temperature (SST) signals that originate from wind-driven upwelling at a coastal boundary. The model couples an oceanic mixed layer to an atmospheric boundary layer through wind stress and air–sea heat exchange. The primary mechanism that controls SST is a balance between Ekman advection and air–sea exchange. The offshore penetration of the cold SST signal decays exponentially with a length scale that is the product of the ocean Ekman velocity and a time scale derived from the air–sea heat flux and the radiative balance in the atmospheric boundary layer. This cold SST signal imprints on the atmosphere in terms of both the boundary layer temperature and surface wind. Nonlinearities due to the feedback between SST and atmospheric wind, baroclinic instability, and thermal wind in the atmospheric boundary layer all slightly modify this linear theory. The decay scales diagnosed from two-dimensional and three-dimensional eddy-resolving numerical ocean models are in close agreement with the theory, demonstrating that the basic physics represented by the theory remain dominant even in these more complete systems. Analysis of climatological SST off the west coast of the United States also shows a decay of the cold SST anomaly with scale roughly in agreement with the theory.
    Description: MASwas supported by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research and the National Science Foundation under Grant OCE-1433170 and PLR-1415489. NS was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant NNX14AL83G, the Department of Energy, Office of Science Grant DE-SC0006766, and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology as part of the JAMSTEC-IPRC Joint Investigations.
    Description: 2017-05-03
    Keywords: Coastal flows ; Ekman pumping/transport ; Ocean dynamics
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 97 (2016): 1859–1884, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00197.1.
    Description: Air–Sea Interactions in the Northern Indian Ocean (ASIRI) is an international research effort (2013–17) aimed at understanding and quantifying coupled atmosphere–ocean dynamics of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) with relevance to Indian Ocean monsoons. Working collaboratively, more than 20 research institutions are acquiring field observations coupled with operational and high-resolution models to address scientific issues that have stymied the monsoon predictability. ASIRI combines new and mature observational technologies to resolve submesoscale to regional-scale currents and hydrophysical fields. These data reveal BoB’s sharp frontal features, submesoscale variability, low-salinity lenses and filaments, and shallow mixed layers, with relatively weak turbulent mixing. Observed physical features include energetic high-frequency internal waves in the southern BoB, energetic mesoscale and submesoscale features including an intrathermocline eddy in the central BoB, and a high-resolution view of the exchange along the periphery of Sri Lanka, which includes the 100-km-wide East India Coastal Current (EICC) carrying low-salinity water out of the BoB and an adjacent, broad northward flow (∼300 km wide) that carries high-salinity water into BoB during the northeast monsoon. Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) observations during the decaying phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) permit the study of multiscale atmospheric processes associated with non-MJO phenomena and their impacts on the marine boundary layer. Underway analyses that integrate observations and numerical simulations shed light on how air–sea interactions control the ABL and upper-ocean processes.
    Description: This work was sponsored by the U.S. Office of Naval Research (ONR) in an ONR Departmental Research Initiative (DRI), Air–Sea Interactions in Northern Indian Ocean (ASIRI), and in a Naval Research Laboratory project, Effects of Bay of Bengal Freshwater Flux on Indian Ocean Monsoon (EBOB). ASIRI–RAWI was funded under the NASCar DRI of the ONR. The Indian component of the program, Ocean Mixing and Monsoons (OMM), was supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences of India.
    Description: 2017-04-22
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 9679-9702, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0707.1.
    Description: The North Atlantic atmospheric circulation response to the meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream (GS) path is examined using a large ensemble of high-resolution hemispheric-scale Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations. The model is forced with a broad range of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies derived from a lag regression on a GS index. The primary result of the model experiments, supported in part by an independent analysis of a reanalysis dataset, is that the large-scale quasi-steady North Atlantic circulation response is remarkably nonlinear about the sign and amplitude of the SST anomaly chosen over a wide range of GS shift scenarios. The nonlinear response prevails over the weak linear response and resembles the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the leading intrinsic mode of variability in the model and the observations. Further analysis of the associated dynamics reveals that the nonlinear responses are accompanied by the shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, which is reinforced, with nearly equal importance, by the high-frequency transient eddy feedback and the low-frequency wave-breaking events. Additional sensitivity simulations confirm that the nonlinearity of the circulation response is a robust feature found over the broad parameter space encompassing not only the varied SST but also the absence/presence of tropical influence, the varying lateral boundary conditions, and the initialization scheme. The result highlights the fundamental importance of the intrinsically nonlinear transient eddy dynamics and the eddy–mean flow interactions in generating the nonlinear downstream response to the meridional shifts in the Gulf Stream.
    Description: The authors are grateful for the support from NASA (NNX13AM59G) and the NSF (AGS-1355339, OCE-1419235).
    Description: 2018-05-07
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Blocking ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Regional models ; Climate variability
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3646
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
    Description: In situ observations of cloud properties made by airborne probes play a critical role in ice cloud research through their role in process studies, parameterization development, and evaluation of simulations and remote sensing retrievals. To determine how cloud properties vary with environmental conditions, in situ data collected during different field projects processed by different groups must be used. However, because of the diverse algorithms and codes that are used to process measurements, it can be challenging to compare the results. Therefore it is vital to understand both the limitations of specific probes and uncertainties introduced by processing algorithms. Since there is currently no universally accepted framework regarding how in situ measurements should be processed, there is a need for a general reference that describes the most commonly applied algorithms along with their strengths and weaknesses. Methods used to process data from bulk water probes, single-particle light-scattering spectrometers and cloud-imaging probes are reviewed herein, with emphasis on measurements of the ice phase. Particular attention is paid to how uncertainties, caveats, and assumptions in processing algorithms affect derived products since there is currently no consensus on the optimal way of analyzing data. Recommendations for improving the analysis and interpretation of in situ data include the following: establishment of a common reference library of individual processing algorithms, better documentation of assumptions used in these algorithms, development and maintenance of sustainable community software for processing in situ observations, and more studies that compare different algorithms with the same benchmark datasets.
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
    Description: It has been known that aerosol particles act as nuclei for ice formation for over a century and a half (see Dufour). Initial attempts to understand the nature of these ice nucleating particles were optical and electron microscope inspection of inclusions at the center of a crystal (see Isono; Kumai). Only within the last few decades has instrumentation to extract ice crystals from clouds and analyze the residual material after sublimation of condensed-phase water been available (see Cziczo and Froyd). Techniques to ascertain the ice nucleating potential of atmospheric aerosols have only been in place for a similar amount of time (see DeMott et al.). In this chapter the history of measurements of ice nucleating particles, both in the field and complementary studies in the laboratory, are reviewed. Remaining uncertainties and artifacts associated with measurements are described and suggestions for future areas of improvement are made.
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
    Description: The life cycle of individual (initially line shaped) contrails behind aircraft and of contrail cirrus (aged contrails mixed with other ice clouds) is described. The full contrail life cycle is covered, from ice formation for given water, heat, and particulate emissions; to changes in the jet, wake, and dispersion phases; through final sublimation or sedimentation. Contrail properties are deduced from various in situ, remote sensing, and model studies. Aerodynamically induced contrails and distrails are explained briefly. Contrails form both in clear air and inside cirrus. Young contrails consume most of the ambient ice supersaturation. Optical properties of contrails are age and humidity dependent. Contrail occurrence and radiative forcing depends on the ambient Earth–atmosphere conditions. Contrail cirrus seems to be optically thicker than assessed previously and may not only increase cirrus coverage but also thicken existing cirrus. Some observational constraints for contrail cirrus occurrence and radiative forcing are derived. Key parameters controlling contrail properties—besides aircraft and fuel properties, ambient pressure, temperature, and humidity—are the number of ice particles per flight distance surviving the wake vortex phase, the contrail depth, and particle sedimentation, wind shear, turbulence, and vertical motions controlling contrail dispersion. The climate impact of contrails depends among other things on the ratio of shortwave to longwave radiative forcing (RF) and on the efficacy with which contrail RF contributes to surface warming. Several open issues are identified, including renucleation from residuals of sublimated contrail ice particles.
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
    Description: Ice-phase precipitation occurs at Earth’s surface and may include various types of pristine crystals, rimed crystals, freezing droplets, secondary crystals, aggregates, graupel, hail, or combinations of any of these. Formation of ice-phase precipitation is directly related to environmental and cloud meteorological parameters that include available moisture, temperature, and three-dimensional wind speed and turbulence, as well as processes related to nucleation, cooling rate, and microphysics. Cloud microphysical parameters in the numerical models are resolved based on various processes such as nucleation, mixing, collision and coalescence, accretion, riming, secondary ice particle generation, turbulence, and cooling processes. These processes are usually parameterized based on assumed particle size distributions and ice crystal microphysical parameters such as mass, size, and number and mass density. Microphysical algorithms in the numerical models are developed based on their need for applications. Observations of ice-phase precipitation are performed using in situ and remote sensing platforms, including radars and satellite-based systems. Because of the low density of snow particles with small ice water content, their measurements and predictions at the surface can include large uncertainties. Wind and turbulence affecting collection efficiency of the sensors, calibration issues, and sensitivity of ground-based in situ observations of snow are important challenges to assessing the snow precipitation. This chapter’s goals are to provide an overview for accurately measuring and predicting ice-phase precipitation. The processes within and below cloud that affect falling snow, as well as the known sources of error that affect understanding and prediction of these processes, are discussed.
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
    Description: Ice fog is a natural, outdoor cloud laboratory that provides an excellent opportunity to study ice microphysical processes. Ice crystals in fog are formed through similar pathways as those in elevated clouds; that is, cloud condensation or ice nuclei are activated in an atmosphere supersaturated with respect to liquid water or ice. The primary differences between surface and elevated ice clouds are related to the sources of water vapor, the cooling mechanisms and dynamical processes leading to supersaturation, and the microphysical characteristics of the nuclei that affect ice fog crystal physical properties. As with any fog, its presence can be a hazard for ground or airborne traffic because of poor visibility and icing. In addition, ice fog plays a role in climate change by modulating the heat and moisture budgets. Ice fog wintertime occurrence in many parts of the world can have a significant impact on the environment. Global climate models need to accurately account for the temporal and spatial microphysical and optical properties of ice fog, as do weather forecast models. The primary handicap is the lack of adequate information on nucleation processes and microphysical algorithms that accurately represent glaciation of supercooled water fog. This chapter summarizes the current understanding of ice fog formation and evolution; discusses operating principles, limitations, and uncertainties associated with the instruments used to measure ice fog microphysical properties; describes the prediction of ice fog by the numerical forecast models and physical parameterizations used in climate models; identifies the outstanding questions to be resolved; and lists recommended actions to address and solve these questions.
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
    Description: State-of-the-art remote sensing techniques applicable to the investigation of ice formation and evolution are described. Ground-based and spaceborne measurements with lidar, radar, and radiometric techniques are discussed together with a global view on past and ongoing remote sensing measurement campaigns concerned with the study of ice formation and evolution. This chapter has the intention of a literature study and should illustrate the major efforts that are currently taken in the field of remote sensing of atmospheric ice. Since other chapters of this monograph mainly focus on aircraft in situ measurements, special emphasis is put on active remote sensing instruments and synergies between aircraft in situ measurements and passive remote sensing methods. The chapter concentrates on homogeneous and heterogeneous ice formation in the troposphere because this is a major topic of this monograph. Furthermore, methods that deliver direct, process-level information about ice formation are elaborated with a special emphasis on active remote sensing methods. Passive remote sensing methods are also dealt with but only in the context of synergy with aircraft in situ measurements.
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
    Description: Ice particle formation in tropospheric clouds significantly changes cloud radiative and microphysical properties. Ice nucleation in the troposphere via homogeneous freezing occurs at temperatures lower than −38°C and relative humidity with respect to ice above 140%. In the absence of these conditions, ice formation can proceed via heterogeneous nucleation aided by aerosol particles known as ice nucleating particles (INPs). In this chapter, new developments in identifying the heterogeneous freezing mechanisms, atmospheric relevance, uncertainties, and unknowns about INPs are described. The change in conventional wisdom regarding the requirements of INPs as new studies discover physical and chemical properties of these particles is explained. INP sources and known reasons for their ice nucleating properties are presented. The need for more studies to systematically identify particle properties that facilitate ice nucleation is highlighted. The atmospheric relevance of long-range transport, aerosol aging, and coating studies (in the laboratory) of INPs are also presented. Possible mechanisms for processes that change the ice nucleating potential of INPs and the corresponding challenges in understanding and applying these in models are discussed. How primary ice nucleation affects total ice crystal number concentrations in clouds and the discrepancy between INP concentrations and ice crystal number concentrations are presented. Finally, limitations of parameterizing INPs and of models in representing known and unknown processes related to heterogeneous ice nucleation processes are discussed.
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
    Description: The goal of this chapter is to synthesize information about what is now known about one of the three main types of clouds, cirrus, and to identify areas where more knowledge is needed. Cirrus clouds, composed of ice particles, form in the upper troposphere, where temperatures are generally below −30°C. Satellite observations show that the maximum-occurrence frequency of cirrus is near the tropics, with a large latitudinal movement seasonally. In situ measurements obtained over a wide range of cirrus types, formation mechanisms, temperatures, and geographical locations indicate that the ice water content and particle size generally decrease with decreasing temperature, whereas the ice particle concentration is nearly constant or increases slightly with decreasing temperature. High ice concentrations, sometimes observed in strong updrafts, result from homogeneous nucleation. The satellite-based and in situ measurements indicate that cirrus ice crystals typically differ from the simple, idealized geometry for smooth hexagonal shapes, indicating complexity and/or surface roughness. Their shapes significantly impact cirrus radiative properties and feedbacks to climate. Cirrus clouds, one of the most uncertain components of general circulation models (GCM), pose one of the greatest challenges in predicting the rate and geographical pattern of climate change. Improved measurements of the properties and size distributions and surface structure of small ice crystals (about 20 μm) and identifying the dominant ice nucleation process (heterogeneous versus homogeneous ice nucleation) under different cloud dynamical forcings will lead to a better representation of their properties in GCM and in modeling their current and future effects on climate.
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2017-02-13
    Description: The goal of this study is to document differences in the convective structure and motion of long-track, severe-wind-producing MCSs from short-track severe-wind-producing MCSs in relation to the mean wind. An ancillary goal is to determine if these differences are large enough that some criterion for MCS motion relative to the mean wind could be used in future definitions of “derechos.” Results confirm past investigations that well-organized MCSs, including those that produce derechos, tend to move faster than the mean wind, exhibiting a significantly larger degree of propagation (component of MCS motion in addition to the component contributed by the mean flow). Furthermore, well-organized systems that produce shorter-track swaths of damaging winds likewise tend to move faster than the mean wind with a significant propagation component along the mean wind. Therefore, propagation in the direction of the mean wind is not necessarily a characteristic that can be used to distinguish derechos from nonderechos. However, there is some indication that long-track damaging wind events that occur without large-scale or persistent bow echoes and mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) require a strong propagation component along the mean wind direction to become long lived. Overall, however, there does not appear to be enough separation in the motion characteristics among the MCS types to warrant the inclusion of a mean-wind criterion into the definition of a derecho at this time.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2017-03-01
    Description: This study evaluates the sensitivity of wind turbine hub-height wind speed forecasts to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, grid length, and initial condition selection in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model over complex terrain. Eight PBL schemes available for the WRF-ARW dynamical core were tested with initial conditions sources from the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model and Global Forecast System (GFS) to produce short-term wind speed forecasts. The largest improvements in forecast accuracy primarily depended on the grid length or PBL scheme choice, although the most important factor varied by location, season, time of day, and bias-correction application. Aggregated over all locations, the Asymmetric Convective Model, version 2 (ACM2) PBL scheme provided the best forecast accuracy, particularly for the 12-km grid length. Other PBL schemes and grid lengths, however, did perform better than the ACM2 scheme for individual seasons or locations.
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2017-02-01
    Description: The effect of Tropical Cyclone Oli (2010) on the ocean is investigated using a variety of measurements. In situ temperature measurements on the cyclone track are available via the Centre de Recherches Insulaires et Observatoire de l’Environnement (CRIOBE) array of probes. This reflects an extreme fluctuation of the temperature some 18 h after the cyclone, lasting only 12 h and exceeding 3°C in amplitude. This study interprets this extreme fluctuation in terms of enhanced mixing associated with the time-dependent inertial currents due to the cyclonic winds. The authors show, using Lagrangian simulations, that this rapid event is compatible with the severe length-scale shortening observed in Lagrangian simulations.
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2017-03-20
    Description: Surface-layer-resolving large-eddy simulations (LESs) of free-convective to near-neutral boundary layers are used to study Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) functions. The LES dataset, previously used for the analysis of MOST relationships for structure parameters, is extended for the mean vertical gradients and standard deviations of potential temperature, specific humidity, and wind. Also, local-free-convection (LFC) similarity is studied. The LES data suggest that the MOST functions for mean gradients are universal and unique. The data for the mean gradient of the horizontal wind display significant scatter, while the gradients of temperature and humidity vary considerably less. The LES results suggest that this scatter is mostly related to a transition from MOST to LFC scaling when approaching free-convective conditions and that it is associated with a change of the slope of the similarity functions toward the expected value from LFC scaling. Overall, the data show slightly, but consistent, steeper slopes of the similarity functions than suggested in literature. The MOST functions for standard deviations appear to be unique and universal when the entrainment from the free atmosphere into the boundary layer is sufficiently small. If entrainment becomes significant, however, we find that the standard deviation of humidity no longer follows MOST. Under free-convective conditions, the similarity functions should reduce to universal constants (LFC scaling). This is supported by the LES data, showing only little scatter, but displaying a systematic height dependence of these constants. Like for MOST, the LFC similarity constant for the standard deviation of specific humidity becomes nonuniversal when the entrainment of dry air reaches significant levels.
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2017-01-03
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2017-03-20
    Description: Drought is a typical disaster in the main soybean production area of northeast China. The spatiotemporal variations of drought related to soybean production based on a crop water deficit index (CWDI) and sensitivity to meteorological variables were investigated in northeast China using daily meteorological data from 87 weather stations from 1981 to 2010. Statistical analysis revealed that precipitation could not meet the water demands of soybeans during the seedling–branching, filling, and maturing stages, and excessive drought occurred more often in northeast China. The Mann–Kendall test indicated that the soybean CWDI significantly increased during the filling stage. Kriging spatial analysis showed that the most drought-prone area was located in the west of northeast China. Explanations for the spatiotemporal variations of the drought for soybean production were explored in terms of meteorological variables. Statistical analysis showed that the crop evapotranspiration, air temperature, wind speed, and number of sunshine hours were significantly higher and the precipitation and relative humidity were significantly lower in the drought-prone area than in the dry area less prone to droughts. An explored method of sensitive analysis quantitatively revealed that precipitation and humidity negatively affected the CWDI, whereas temperature, wind speed, and number of sunshine hours positively affected the CWDI. The CWDI was most sensitive to precipitation. These results not only provide valuable information for soybean planning and management but also produce important background and physical evidence for the influence of climate on the drought related to soybean production in northeast China.
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2017-02-22
    Description: Knowledge of cloud-base height (CBH) is important to describe cloud radiative feedbacks in numerical models and is of practical relevance to the aviation community. Whereas satellite remote sensing with passive radiometers traditionally has provided a ready means for estimating cloud-top height (CTH) and cloud water path (CWP), assignment of CBH requires heavy assumptions on the distribution of CWP within the cloud profile. An attempt to retrieve CBH has been included as part of the VIIRS environmental data records, produced operationally as part of the Suomi–National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP) and the forthcoming Joint Polar Satellite System. Through formal validation studies tied to the program, it was found that the operational CBH algorithm failed to meet performance specifications in many cases. This paper presents a new methodology for retrieving CBH of the uppermost cloud layer, developed through statistical analyses relating cloud geometric thickness (CGT) to CTH and CWP. The semiempirical approach, which relates these parameters via piecewise fitting, enlists A-Train satellite data [CloudSat cloud profiling radar (CPR), CALIPSO/CALIOP, and Aqua MODIS]. CBH is provided as the residual difference between CTH and CGT. By eliminating cloud type–dependent assumptions on CWP distribution, artifacts common to the operational algorithm (which contribute to high errors) are reduced. Special accommodations are made for handling optically thin cirrus and deep convection. An application to SNPP VIIRS is demonstrated, and the results are compared against global CloudSat observations. From the VIIRS–CloudSat daytime matchups (September–October 2013 and January–May 2015), the new algorithm outperforms the operational SNPP VIIRS algorithm, particularly when the retrieved CTH is accurate. Best performance is expected for single-layer liquid-phase clouds.
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2017-01-03
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2017-01-03
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2017-03-01
    Description: Many data-merging studies of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite involve the integration of high-resolution Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) signals (~2 km) with low-resolution Precipitation Radar (PR) footprint (~5 km) to obtain comprehensive information from observations. Based on the merged dataset, “warm rain” is generally identified as having averaging 10.8-μm brightness temperatures (TB10.8) exceeding 273 K and the existence of surface rainfall. However, this integration may lead to the misidentification of warm rain because the beam-filling problem (nonuniform TB10.8 in PR pixels) is not fully considered through the method using high-resolution TB10.8 to match low-resolution rainfall. To assess the bias that is associated with identifying warm rain, a new dataset that includes all VIRS signals within the PR resolution is established, and the characteristics of this warm rain in the summers of 1998–2012 are analyzed. The results show that clear-sky pixels and “cold” pixels probably exist in some apparent warm-rain cases (60.5% and 11.2% of the time, respectively). According to this finding, warm-rain pixels are divided into pixels with and without clear sky. Statistical analysis shows that the existence of clear-sky pixels has a huge influence on the characteristics of the warm-rain pixels. The implications of this study are that many of the warm-rain cases are in fact not warm rain. When studying warm rain, the situation whereby the edges of pixels are clear sky should be fully considered. Also, when computing the weighted average brightness temperature and other characteristics of warm-rain pixels, parts that are clear-sky or cold pixels should be expelled to mitigate beam-filling problems.
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2017-03-16
    Description: Accurate evaluations of incoming longwave radiation (Lin) parameterization have practical implications for glacier and river runoff changes in high-mountain regions of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). To identify potential means of accurately predicting spatiotemporal variations in Lin, 13 clear-sky parameterizations combined with 10 cloud corrections for all-sky atmospheric emissivity were evaluated at five sites in high-mountain regions of the TP through temporal and spatial parameter transfer tests. Most locally calibrated parameterizations for clear-sky and all-sky conditions performed well when applied to the calibration site. The best parameterization at five sites is Dilley and O’Brien’s A model combined with Sicart et al.’s A for cloud-correction-incorporated relative humidity. The performance of parameter transferability in time is better than that in space for the same all-sky parameterizations. The performance of parameter transferability in space presents spatial discrepancies. In addition, all all-sky parameterizations show a decrease in performance with increasing altitude regardless of whether the parameters of all-sky parameterizations were recalibrated by local conditions or transferred from other study sites. This may be attributable to the difference between screen-level air temperature and the effective atmospheric boundary layer temperature and to different cloud-base heights. Nevertheless, such worse performance at higher altitudes is likely to change because of terrain, underlying surfaces, and wind systems, among other factors. The study also describes possible spatial characteristics of Lin and its driving factors by reviewing the few studies about Lin for the mountain regions of the TP.
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2017-03-21
    Description: Intrinsic predictability is defined as the uncertainty in a forecast due to small errors in the initial conditions. In fact, not only the amplitude but also the structure of these initial errors plays a key role in the evolution of the forecast. Several methodologies have been developed to create an ensemble of forecasts from a feasible set of initial conditions, such as bred vectors or singular vectors. However, these methodologies consider only the fastest growth direction globally, which is represented by the Lyapunov vector. In this paper, the simple Lorenz 63 model is used to compare bred vectors, random perturbations, and normal modes against analogs. The concept of analogs is based on the ergodicity theory to select compatible states for a given initial condition. These analogs have a complex structure in the phase space of the Lorenz attractor that is compatible with the properties of the nonlinear chaotic system. It is shown that the initial averaged growth rate of errors of the analogs is similar to the one obtained with bred vectors or normal modes (fastest growth), but they do not share other properties or statistics, such as the spread of these growth rates. An in-depth study of different properties of the analogs and the previous existing perturbation methodologies is carried out to shed light on the consequences of forecasting the choice of the perturbations.
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  • 65
  • 66
    Publication Date: 2017-02-20
    Description: Traditional methods for measuring whitecap coverage using digital video systems mounted to measure a large footprint can miss features that do not produce a high enough contrast to the background. Here, a method for accurately measuring the fractional coverage, intensity, and decay time of whitecaps using above-water radiometry is presented. The methodology was developed using data collected in the Southern Ocean under a wide range of wind and wave conditions. Whitecap quantities were obtained by employing a magnitude threshold based on the interquartile range of the radiance or reflectance signal from a single channel. Breaking intensity and decay time were produced from the integration of and the exponential fit to radiance or reflectance over the lifetime of the whitecap. When using the lowest magnitude threshold possible, radiometric fractional whitecap coverage retrievals were consistently higher than fractional coverage from high-resolution digital images, perhaps because the radiometer captures more of the decaying bubble plume area that is difficult to detect with photography. Radiometrically obtained whitecap measurements are presented in the context of concurrently measured meteorological (e.g., wind speed) and oceanographic (e.g., wave) data. The optimal fit of the radiometrically estimated whitecap coverage to the instantaneous wind speed, determined using robust linear least squares, showed a near-cubic dependence. Increasing the magnitude threshold for whitecap detection from 2 to 4 times the interquartile range produced a wind speed–whitecap relationship most comparable to the concurrently collected fractional coverage from digital imagery and previously published wind speed–whitecap parameterizations.
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2017-01-03
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2017-02-01
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2017-02-01
    Description: Standard methods of tidal inference should be revised to account for a known resonance that occurs mostly within the K1 tidal group in the diurnal band. The resonance arises from a free rotational mode of Earth caused by the fluid core. In a set of 110 bottom-pressure tide stations, the amplitude of the P1 tidal constituent is shown to be suppressed relative to K1, which is in good agreement with the resonance theory. Standard formulas for the K1 nodal modulation remain essentially unaffected. Two examples are given of applications of the refined inference methodology: one with monthly tide gauge data and one with satellite altimetry. For some altimeter-constrained tide models, an inferred P1 constituent is found to be more accurate than a directly determined one.
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2017-03-20
    Description: Analysis of drop size distributions (DSD) measured by collocated Meteorological Particle Spectrometer (MPS) and a third-generation, low-profile, 2D-video disdrometer (2DVD) are presented. Two events from two different regions (Greeley, Colorado, and Huntsville, Alabama) are analyzed. While the MPS, with its 50-μm resolution, enabled measurements of small drops, typically for drop diameters below about 1.1 mm, the 2DVD provided accurate measurements for drop diameters above 0.7 mm. Drop concentrations in the 0.7–1.1-mm overlap region were found to be in excellent agreement between the two instruments. Examination of the combined spectra clearly reveals a drizzle mode and a precipitation mode. The combined spectra were analyzed in terms of the DSD parameters, namely, the normalized intercept parameter NW, the mass-weighted mean diameter Dm, and the standard deviation of mass spectrum σM. The inclusion of small drops significantly affected the NW and the ratio σM/Dm toward higher values relative to using the 2DVD-based spectra alone. For each of the two events, polarimetric radar data were used to characterize the variation of radar-measured reflectivity Zh and differential reflectivity Zdr with Dm from the combined spectra. In the Greeley event, this variation at S band was well captured for small values of Dm (
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2017-03-01
    Description: Laser disdrometers measure the particle size distribution (PSD) of hydrometeors through a small cross-sectional (tens of square centimeters) surface. Such a limited area induces a sampling effect in the estimates of the PSD, which translates to error in the reflectivity–rain-rate (Z–R) relationship used for ground radar estimates of rainfall, estimates of kinetic energy of precipitation, and any other hydrometeorological application relying on particle size information. Here, the results of a dedicated experiment to estimate the extent of the effect of limited area sampling of rainfall are presented. Using 14 Parsivel, version 1 (Parsivel-1), disdrometers placed within 6 m2, it was found that the combined area of at least seven disdrometers is required for the estimates to start converging to a stable value. The results can be used to quantify the degree of over-/underestimation of precipitation parameters for a single instrument due to the limited collecting area effect. It has been found that a single disdrometer may underestimate instantaneous rain rate by 70%.
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2017-01-23
    Description: The knowledge of atmospheric refractive index structure constant () profiles is fundamental to determine the intensity of turbulence, and hence the impact of the scintillation impairment on the signals propagating in the troposphere. However, their relation with atmospheric variables is not straightforward, and profiles based on statistical considerations are normally employed. This can be a shortcoming when performing simulations for which scintillation disturbances need to be consistent with the assumed atmospheric conditions. To overcome this limitation, this work describes a procedure to obtain an estimate of the refractive index structure constant profile of clear-air turbulence under given atmospheric conditions. The procedure is based on the application of the vertical gradient approach to high-resolution radiosonde data. Since turbulence is known to be confined to vertically thin layers, a preliminary identification of turbulent layers is required. This is accomplished by analyzing the profiles of the Richardson number. The value of the outer scale length is estimated using the Thorpe length calculated from the potential temperature profile. The procedure is applied to high-resolution radiosonde data that have been acquired from the Stratosphere–Troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Center, and the obtained results are consistent with measured profiles previously published in the literature.
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2017-02-17
    Description: Satellite observations between 2007 and 2015 are used to characterize the annual occurrence of the premonsoon drought (PMD), which causes human death and economic hardship in India, and to postulate its scientific causes. The PMD is identified as the driest and hottest weeks in central India just before the summer monsoon onset. The onset is marked by a sharp increase in precipitation and soil moisture and a decrease in air temperature. The difference between integrated moisture transported in from the Arabian Sea and out to the Bay of Bengal is largely deposited as rain over land during the summer monsoon. The PMD occurs during the short period when moisture is drawn out to the Bay of Bengal before it can be replenished from the Arabian Sea. The time gap is caused by the earlier start of summer monsoon (southwest) winds in the Bay of Bengal than in the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature rise precedes the start of summer monsoon wind in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and it has the potential to give advance warning of the PMD and thus allow mitigation of the adverse effects.
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2017-08-01
    Description: Global surface temperature changes are a fundamental expression of climate change. Recent, much-debated variations in the observed rate of surface temperature change have highlighted the importance of uncertainty in adjustments applied to sea surface temperature (SST) measurements. These adjustments are applied to compensate for systematic biases and changes in observing protocol. Better quantification of the adjustments and their uncertainties would increase confidence in estimated surface temperature change and provide higher-quality gridded SST fields for use in many applications. Bias adjustments have been based on either physical models of the observing processes or the assumption of an unchanging relationship between SST and a reference dataset, such as night marine air temperature. These approaches produce similar estimates of SST bias on the largest space and time scales, but regional differences can exceed the estimated uncertainty. We describe challenges to improving our understanding of SST biases. Overcoming these will require clarification of past observational methods, improved modeling of biases associated with each observing method, and the development of statistical bias estimates that are less sensitive to the absence of metadata regarding the observing method. New approaches are required that embed bias models, specific to each type of observation, within a robust statistical framework. Mobile platforms and rapid changes in observation type require biases to be assessed for individual historic and present-day platforms (i.e., ships or buoys) or groups of platforms. Lack of observational metadata and high-quality observations for validation and bias model development are likely to remain major challenges.
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2017-04-01
    Description: The climate impacts of the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) are investigated using the GFDL CM2.1 and the NCAR CESM1 coupled climate models. The model North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are restored to fixed anomalies corresponding to an estimate of the internally driven component of the observed AMV. Both models show that during boreal summer the AMV alters the Walker circulation and generates precipitation anomalies over the whole tropical belt. A warm phase of the AMV yields reduced precipitation over the western United States, drier conditions over the Mediterranean basin, and wetter conditions over northern Europe. During boreal winter, the AMV modulates by a factor of about 2 the frequency of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events. This response is associated with anomalies over the Pacific that project onto the interdecadal Pacific oscillation pattern (i.e., Pacific decadal oscillation–like anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere and a symmetrical pattern in the Southern Hemisphere). This winter response is a lagged adjustment of the Pacific Ocean to the AMV forcing in summer. Most of the simulated global-scale impacts are driven by the tropical part of the AMV, except for the winter North Atlantic Oscillation–like response over the North Atlantic–European region, which is driven by both the subpolar and tropical parts of the AMV. The teleconnections between the Pacific and Atlantic basins alter the direct North Atlantic local response to the AMV, which highlights the importance of using a global coupled framework to investigate the climate impacts of the AMV. The similarity of the two model responses gives confidence that impacts described in this paper are robust.
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2017-03-01
    Description: Wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere extratropical atmosphere exhibits robust periodicity on time scales of ~20–25 days. Previous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the periodicity in hemispheric averages of various eddy quantities. Here the authors explore the signature of the periodicity on regional spatial scales. Intraseasonal periodicity in the Southern Hemisphere circulation derives from out-of-phase anomalies in wave activity that form in association with extratropical wave packets as they propagate to the east. In the upper troposphere, the out-of-phase anomalies in wave activity form not along the path of extratropical wave packets, but in their wake. The out-of-phase anomalies in wave activity give rise to periodicity not only on hemispheric scales, but also on synoptic scales when the circulation is sampled along an eastward path between ~5 and 15 m s−1. It is argued that 1) periodicity in extratropical wave activity derives from two-way interactions between the heat fluxes and baroclinicity in the lower troposphere and 2) the unique longitude–time structure of the periodicity in upper-tropospheric wave activity derives from the contrasting eastward speeds of the source of the periodicity in the lower troposphere (~10 m s−1) and wave packets in the upper troposphere (~25 m s−1).
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2017-03-03
    Description: Smartphone pressure observations have the potential to greatly increase surface observation density on convection-resolving scales. Currently available smartphone pressure observations are tested through assimilation in a mesoscale ensemble for a 3-day, convectively active period in the eastern United States. Both raw pressure (altimeter) observations and 1-h pressure (altimeter) tendency observations are considered. The available observation density closely follows population density, but observations are also available in rural areas. The smartphone observations are found to contain significant noise, which can limit their effectiveness. The assimilated smartphone observations contribute to small improvements in 1-h forecasts of surface pressure and 10-m wind, but produce larger errors in 2-m temperature forecasts. Short-term (0–4 h) precipitation forecasts are improved when smartphone pressure and pressure tendency observations are assimilated as compared with an ensemble that assimilates no observations. However, these improvements are limited to broad, mesoscale features with minimal skill provided at convective scales using the current smartphone observation density. A specific mesoscale convective system (MCS) is examined in detail, and smartphone pressure observations captured the expected dynamic structures associated with this feature. Possibilities for further development of smartphone observations are discussed.
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  • 78
  • 79
    Publication Date: 2017-04-01
    Description: As high-resolution numerical weather prediction models are now commonplace, “neighborhood” verification metrics are regularly employed to evaluate forecast quality. These neighborhood approaches relax the requirement that perfect forecasts must match observations at the grid scale, contrasting traditional point-by-point verification methods. One recently proposed metric, the neighborhood equitable threat score, is calculated from 2 × 2 contingency tables that are populated within a neighborhood framework. However, the literature suggests three subtly different methods of populating neighborhood-based contingency tables. Thus, this work compares and contrasts these three variants and shows they yield statistically significantly different conclusions regarding forecast performance, illustrating that neighborhood-based contingency tables should be constructed carefully and transparently. Furthermore, this paper shows how two of the methods use inconsistent event definitions and suggests a “neighborhood maximum” approach be used to fill neighborhood-based contingency tables.
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2017-03-21
    Description: Regional and global climate models are usually validated by comparison to derived observations or reanalyses. Using a model in data assimilation results in a direct comparison to observations to produce its own analyses that may reveal systematic errors. In this study, regional analyses over North America are produced based on the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) combined with the variational data assimilation system of the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). CRCM5 is driven at its boundaries by global analyses from ERA-Interim or produced with the global configuration of the CRCM5. Assimilation cycles for the months of January and July 2011 revealed systematic errors in winter through large values in the mean analysis increments. This bias is attributed to the coupling of the lateral boundary conditions of the regional model with the driving data particularly over the northern boundary where a rapidly changing large-scale circulation created significant cross-boundary flows. Increasing the time frequency of the lateral driving and applying a large-scale spectral nudging significantly improved the circulation through the lateral boundaries, which translated in a much better agreement with observations.
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2017-05-01
    Description: Large-eddy simulations are used to produce realistic, high-resolution depictions of near-surface winds in translating tornadoes. The translation speed, swirl ratio, and vertical forcing are varied to provide a range of vortex intensities and structural types. Observation experiments are then performed in which the tornadoes are passed over groups of simulated sensors. Some of the experiments use indestructible, error-free anemometers while others limit the range of observable wind speeds to mimic the characteristics of damage indicators specified in the enhanced Fujita (EF) scale. Also, in some of the experiments the sensors are randomly placed while in others they are positioned in regularly spaced columns perpendicular to the vortex tracks to mimic field project deployments. Statistical analysis of the results provides quantitative insight into the limitations of tornado intensity estimates based on damage surveys or in situ measurements in rural or semirural areas. The mean negative bias relative to the “true” global maximum 3-s gust at 10 m AGL (the standard for EF ratings) exceeds 10 m s−1 in all cases and 45 m s−1 in some cases. A small number of sensors are generally sufficient to provide a good approximation of the running time-mean maximum during the period of observation, although the required spatial resolution of the sensor group is still substantially higher than that previously attained by any field program. Because of model limitations and simplifying assumptions, these results are regarded as a lower bound for tornado intensity underestimates in rural and semirural areas and provide a baseline for further inquiry.
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2017-02-13
    Description: Few studies show how university students perceive and respond to tornado warnings. Lacking in the literature are investigations of what influences perceptions of tornado risk among this population and how these perceptions may influence actions. Through an online survey of 640 undergraduates enrolled at a large university in Nebraska, significant relationships were found between student demographics, perceptions, and response actions. Tornado mythology relevant to the local city influenced perceptions so that students felt the city was less at risk than surrounding rural land. Confirming risk before sheltering remained popular, with some students choosing to never seek shelter during a warning. International students were more likely to initially seek shelter during a warning but had difficulty interpreting warning polygons or accurately choosing the best safety actions. Tornado-related education resulted in international students being more likely to have safety plans and shelter in more appropriate locations. Most domestic students correctly identified safe areas in which to shelter, but fewer knew the precise meaning of a tornado warning polygon. Parents/guardians and the school were the most popular tornado knowledge sources for domestic students, while friends and self-education were popular with international students. Respondents seemed willing to learn more about tornadoes and perceived a lack of tornado-related resources available on campus. This implies that more thorough tornado education and information dissemination on university campuses is warranted. Faster personalization of risk, dispelling local myths, and educating those new to tornado-prone locations should be emphasized.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2017-03-01
    Description: Atmospheric electric field measurements from the Concordia station on the Antarctic Plateau are compared with those from Vostok (560 km away) for the period of overlap (2009–11) and to Carnegie (1915–29) and extended Vostok (2006–11) measurements. The Antarctic data are sorted according to several sets of criteria for rejecting local variability to examine a local summer-noon influence on the measurements and to improve estimates of the global signal. The contribution of the solar wind influence is evaluated and removed from the Vostok and Concordia measurements. Simultaneous measurements yield days when the covariability of the electric field measurements at Concordia and Vostok exceeds 90%, as well as intervals when significant local variability is apparent. Days of simultaneous changes in shape and mean level of the diurnal variation, as illustrated in a 5-day sequence, can be interpreted as due to changes in the relative upward current output of the electrified cloud generators predominating at low latitudes. Smaller average local meteorological influences are removed from the larger Vostok dataset, revealing changes in the shape of monthly average diurnal variations, which are similarly attributed to changes in predominantly low-latitude convection from month to month.
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2017-01-25
    Description: Thirty-nine thunderstorms are examined using multiple-Doppler, polarimetric, and total lightning observations to understand the role of mixed-phase kinematics and microphysics in the development of lightning jumps. This sample size is larger than those of previous studies on this topic. The principal result of this study is that lightning jumps are a result of mixed-phase updraft intensification. Larger increases in intense updraft volume (≥10 m s−1) and larger changes in peak updraft speed are observed prior to lightning jump occurrence when compared to other nonjump increases in total flash rate. Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney rank sum testing yields p values ≤ 0.05, indicating statistical independence between lightning jump and nonjump distributions for these two parameters. Similar changes in mixed-phase graupel mass magnitude are observed prior to lightning jumps and nonjump increases in total flash rate. The p value for the graupel mass change is p = 0.096, so jump and nonjump distributions for the graupel mass change are not found to be statistically independent using the p = 0.05 significance level. The timing of updraft volume, speed, and graupel mass increases is found to be 4–13 min in advance of lightning jump occurrence. Also, severe storms without lightning jumps lack robust mixed-phase updrafts, demonstrating that mixed-phase updrafts are not always a requirement for severe weather occurrence. Therefore, the results of this study show that lightning jump occurrences are coincident with larger increases in intense mixed-phase updraft volume and peak updraft speed than smaller nonjump increases in total flash rate.
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2017-03-01
    Description: A simple numerical experiment was performed to investigate the result published in many papers that measurements indicate that aggregates may be well represented as oblate spheroids with mean aspect ratio (semiminor axis to semimajor axis length) of 0.6. The aspect ratio measurements are derived from two-dimensional projections of complex three-dimensional aggregates. Here, aggregates were modeled as ellipsoids with semiprincipal axes of length a, b, and c, which include oblate spheroids (a = b) as a class, and the projected aspect ratios of large numbers of two-dimensional projections of them were sampled. When sampling oblate spheroids with aspect ratio 0.6 over random orientations, the mean projected aspect ratio is 0.746. A mean projected aspect ratio of 0.6 is obtained for an oblate spheroid with aspect ratio of 0.33. When sampling randomly oriented ellipsoids with semiminor axes (b, c) varying from 0.10 to 1.00 in steps of 0.01, representing many complex shapes, the mean projected aspect ratio is 0.595, close to the measured mean projected aspect ratio of aggregates of 0.6. These experiments demonstrate that the conclusion one may safely draw from the projected aspect ratio measurements is that the mean aspect ratio of aggregates is lower than 0.6. Moreover, the projected aspect ratio distributions from measurements suggest a mixture of aggregate shapes, rather than only oblate spheroids as is often assumed.
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2017-07-01
    Description: To better understand the impacts of climate change, environmental monitoring capabilities must be enhanced by deploying additional and more accurate satellite- and ground-based (including in situ) sensors. In addition, reanalysis of observations collected decades ago but long forgotten can unlock precious information about the recent past. Historical, in situ observations mainly cover densely inhabited areas and frequently traveled routes. In contrast, large selections of early meteorological satellite data, waiting to be exploited today, provide information about remote areas unavailable from any other source. When initially collected, these satellite data posed great challenges to transmission and archiving facilities. As a result, data access was limited to the main teams of scientific investigators associated with the instruments. As archive media have aged, so have the mission scientists and other pioneers of satellite meteorology, who sometimes retired in possession of unique and unpublished information. This paper presents examples of recently recovered satellite data records, including satellite imagery, early infrared hyperspectral soundings, and early microwave humidity soundings. Their value for climate applications today can be realized using methods and techniques that were not yet available when the data were first collected, including efficient and accurate observation simulators and data assimilation into reanalyses. Modern technical infrastructure allows serving entire mission datasets online, enabling easy access and exploration by a broad range of users, including new and old generations of climate scientists.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2017-07-01
    Description: Boiling is an extreme form of evaporation that occurs when the saturation vapor pressure is equal to the total atmospheric pressure. This paper computes boiling temperature by four different methods and compares the results to data provided in the CRC Handbook of Physics and Chemistry. The first method utilizes a constant value for the latent heat of vaporization (lυ) in the Clausius–Clapeyron equation, and the second method uses a previously published temperature-dependent linear function for lυ. A third method is suggested that begins by deriving a new second-order function for lυ, and then applies this function in an error-reduction loop to determine boiling temperature as a function of pressure. This method for computing boiling temperature shows a mean bias of 0.31°C between mean sea level pressure and 100 hPa and a mean error of less than a tenth of a percent, which is a significant improvement over both of the first two methods. The fourth method uses a fifth-order polynomial, eliminating lυ and making pressure the independent variable, which is used to compute boiling temperature with a mean bias of 0.25°C and a mean error of 0.09% for pressures between mean sea level pressure and 100 hPa.
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
    Description: In this two-part study, relationships between the cloud gamma size distribution shape parameter, microphysical processes, and cloud characteristics of nonprecipitating shallow cumulus clouds are investigated using large-eddy simulations. In Part I, the dependence of the shape parameter (which is closely related to the distribution width) on cloud properties and processes was investigated. However, the distribution width also impacts cloud process rates and in turn cloud properties, and it is this aspect of the relationship that is explored in Part II and is discussed in the context of aerosol–cloud interactions. In simulations with a bulk microphysics scheme, it is found that the evaporation rates are much more sensitive to the value of the shape parameter than to the condensation rates. This is due to changes in both the rate of removal of mass and the rate of removal of fully evaporated droplets. As a result, cloud properties such as droplet number concentration, mean droplet diameter, and cloud fraction are strongly impacted by the value of the shape parameter, particularly in the subsaturated regions of the clouds. These changes can be on the same order of magnitude as changes due to increasing or decreasing the aerosol concentration by a factor of 16. Particular attention is paid to the impact of the shape parameter on cloud albedo. The cloud albedo increases as the shape parameter is increased as a result of the changes in evaporation. The magnitude of the increase is about 4 times larger than previous estimates. However, this increase in cloud albedo is largely offset by a decrease in the cloud fraction, which results in only small increases to the domain-average albedo. Implications for the aerosol relative dispersion effect are discussed.
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2017-03-06
    Description: This study investigates the impacts of historical land-cover change on summer afternoon precipitation over North America using the Community Earth System Model. Using land–atmosphere coupling metrics, this study examines the sensitivity of afternoon atmospheric conditions to morning land surface states and fluxes that are altered by land-cover changes before and since 1850. The deforestation in the eastern United States prior to 1850 leads to increased latent but decreased sensible heat flux during the morning and a reduction in afternoon precipitation over the southern regions of the U.S. East Coast. The agricultural expansion over the Great Plains since preindustrial times shows similar effects on surface fluxes but results in a significant widespread increase in precipitation over the crop area. The coupling metrics exhibit a strong positive soil moisture–precipitation relationship over the Great Plains. Impacts of land-cover change on precipitation manifest through changes in rainfall frequency, rather than intensity, that are largely controlled by the distribution of CAPE as the trigger of convective precipitation. However, deforestation and later reforestation over the eastern United States, where coupling properties are different than the Great Plains, do not have as dominant an effect on afternoon precipitation. Additionally, precipitation over parts of the U.S. Southwest decreases in this model during the earlier period of East Coast deforestation, owing to changes in the large-scale circulation over North America driven by land-use changes prior to 1850.
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2017-02-14
    Description: Sixteen years of Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) reflectivity profile data are collected for oceanic, continental, and island tropical regions within the boreal winter intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). When sorted by the rain top height (RTH), a consistent behavior emerges where the average reflectivity profiles originating at different RTHs form non-overlapping manifolds in the height–reflectivity space, excluding the brightband regions for stratiform type profiles. Based on reflectivity slope (dBZ km−1) profile characteristics and physical considerations, the profiles are divided into three classes: 1) cold profiles, which originate above the −20°C isotherm height and display convergence to a single reflectivity slope profile independent of RTH; 2) warm profiles, which originate below the 0°C isotherm height and display strong reflectivity slope dependence on RTH, with slope values per RTH linearly decreasing with decreased height; and 3) mixed profiles, which originate at the layer located in between the lowest cold rain and highest warm rain profiles and show a gradual transition from cold profile to warm profile reflectivity slope behavior. Stratiform type profiles show similarity for all regions. It is shown that the typical tropical stratiform cold rain profile can be simply parameterized given the temperature profile. Convective type profiles present larger interregional differences. Their deviation from the typical stratiform cold rain profile is used as a measure for convective intensity, where continental and island regions show larger deviations compared to oceanic ones.
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2017-02-09
    Description: The authors study a wide range of atmospheric circulations with an idealized moist general circulation model to evaluate the mechanisms controlling intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) migrations. They employ a zonally symmetric aquaplanet slab ocean of fixed depth and force top-of-atmosphere insolation to remain fixed at the pole for an “eternal solstice” simulation and also vary seasonally for a range of rotation rates, keeping all other parameters Earth-like. For rotation rates ΩE/8 and slower, a transient maximum in zonal-mean precipitation appears at the summer pole; however, the ITCZ associated with the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation lies at ~60°. The authors assess how widely used predictors of the ITCZ position perform in this wide parameter space. Standard predictors based on different estimates of the Hadley cell’s poleward extent are correlated with but overestimate off-equatorial ITCZ locations. Interestingly, in the eternal-solstice case for Earth’s rotation rate, the ITCZ remains at subtropical latitudes even though the lower-level moist static energy maximizes at the summer pole. While seemingly at odds with convective quasi-equilibrium arguments, this can happen because at Earth’s rotation rates, the thermal stratification set in convective regions can only be communicated within the tropics, where temperature gradients are constrained to be weak. The authors therefore develop an understanding of the ITCZ’s position based on top-of-atmosphere energetics and the boundary layer momentum budget and argue that friction and pressure gradient forces determine the region of maximum convergence, offering a modified dynamical perspective on the monsoon-like seasonal weather patterns of terrestrial planets.
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2017-02-20
    Description: This study investigates atmospheric blocking over eastern South America in austral summer for the period of 1979–2014. The results show that blocking over this area is a consequence of propagating Rossby waves that grow to large amplitudes and eventually break anticyclonically over subtropical South America (SSA). The SSA blocking can prevent the establishment of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ). As such, years with more blocking days coincide with years with fewer SACZ days and reduced precipitation. Convection mainly over the Indian Ocean associated with Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) phases 1 and 2 can trigger the wave train that leads to SSA blocking whereas convection over the western/central Pacific associated with phases 6 and 7 is more likely to lead to SACZ events. It is found that the MJO is a key source of long-term variability in SSA blocking frequency. The wave packets associated with SSA blocking and SACZ episodes differ not only in their origin but also in their phase and refraction pattern. The tropopause-based methodology used here is proven to reliably identify events that lead to extremes of surface temperature and precipitation over SSA. Up to 80% of warm surface air temperature extremes occur simultaneously with SSA blocking events. The frequency of SSA blocking days is highly anticorrelated with the rainfall over southeast Brazil. The worst droughts in this area, during the summers of 1984, 2001, and 2014, are linked to record high numbers of SSA blocking days. The persistence of these events is also important in generating the extreme impacts.
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2017-03-07
    Description: This study attempts to improve the prediction of western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asia (EA) landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) using modes of large-scale climate variability [e.g., the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), and North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (NASST)] as predictors in a hybrid statistical–dynamical scheme, based on dynamical model forecasts with the GFDL Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 with flux adjustments (FLOR-FA). Overall, the predictive skill of the hybrid model for the WNP TC frequency increases from lead month 5 (initialized in January) to lead month 0 (initialized in June) in terms of correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error (RMSE). The hybrid model outperforms FLOR-FA in predicting WNP TC frequency for all lead months. The predictive skill of the hybrid model improves as the forecast lead time decreases, with values of the correlation coefficient increasing from 0.56 for forecasts initialized in January to 0.69 in June. The hybrid models for landfalling TCs over the entire East Asian (EEA) coast and its three subregions [i.e., southern EA (SEA), middle EA (MEA), and northern EA (NEA)] dramatically outperform FLOR-FA. The correlation coefficient between predicted and observed TC landfall over SEA increases from 0.52 for forecasts initialized in January to 0.64 in June. The hybrid models substantially reduce the RMSE of landfalling TCs over SEA and EEA compared with FLOR-FA. This study suggests that the PMM and NASST/AMM can be used to improve statistical/hybrid forecast models for the frequencies of WNP or East Asia landfalling TCs.
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2017-02-13
    Description: Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) forecasts of ceiling height, visibility, wind, and other weather elements of interest to the aviation community have been produced and put into the National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD) since 2006. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is now producing explicit forecasts of ceiling height and visibility computed by algorithms based on variables directly forecasted by the HRRR. The Meteorological Development Laboratory has improved the LAMP ceiling and visibility forecasts by combining these two sources of information into a LAMP–HRRR MELD. The new forecasts show improvement over the original LAMP and particularly over the HRRR and persistence in terms of bias, threat score, and the Gerrity score. This paper explains how the MELD is produced and shows selected verification and example forecasts. A new guidance product based on this work will be made available to partners and customers.
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2017-02-20
    Description: Dense oceanic overflows descend over the rough topography of the continental slope entraining and mixing with surrounding waters. The associated dilution dictates the fate of these currents and thus is of fundamental importance to the formation of deep water masses. The entrainment in a dense current flowing down a sloping bottom in a rotating homogeneous fluid is investigated using laboratory experiments, focusing on the influence of the bottom roughness on the flow dynamics. The roughness is idealized by an array of vertical rigid cylinders and both their spacing and height are varied as well as the inclination of the sloping bottom. The presence of the roughness is generally observed to decelerate the dense current, with a consequent reduction of the Froude number, when compared to the smooth bottom configuration. However, the dilution of the dense current due to mixing with the ambient fluid is enhanced by the roughness elements, especially for low Froude numbers. When the entrainment due to shear instability at the interface between the dense current and the ambient fluid is low, the additional turbulence and mixing arising at the bottom of the dense current due to the roughness elements strongly affects the dilution of the current. Finally, a strong dependence of the entrainment parameter on the Reynolds number is observed.
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2017-03-01
    Description: Surface air temperature is a basic meteorological variable to monitor the environment and assess climate change. Four remote sensing methods—the temperature–vegetation index (TVX), the univariate linear regression method, the multivariate linear regression method, and the advection-energy balance for surface air temperature (ADEBAT)—have been developed to acquire surface air temperature on a regional scale. To evaluate their utilities, they were applied to estimate the surface air temperature in northwestern China and were compared with each other through regressive analyses, t tests, estimation errors, and analyses on estimations of different underlying surfaces. Results can be summarized into three aspects: 1) The regressive analyses and t tests indicate that the multivariate linear regression method and the ADEBAT provide better accuracy than the other two methods. 2) Frequency histograms on estimation errors show that the multivariate linear regression method produces the minimum error range, and the univariate linear regression method produces the maximum error range. Errors of the multivariate linear regression method exhibit a nearly normal distribution and that of the ADEBAT exhibit a bimodal distribution, whereas the other two methods display negative skewness distributions. 3) Estimates on different underlying surfaces show that the TVX and the univariate linear regression method are significantly limited in regions with sparse vegetation cover. The multivariate linear regression method has estimation errors within 1°C and without high levels of errors, and the ADEBAT also produces high estimation errors on bare ground.
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2017-03-01
    Description: The existence of strong easterly winds down the western slope of the south-central Andes in Chile, locally known as Puelche winds, has been known by the meteorological community since at least the mid-twentieth century. However, this is the first time that a climatological characterization of them is presented. The analysis is based on 36 yr of daily CFSR–NCEP reanalyzed data, validated by surface weather observations. Puelche winds are present all year round. The main synoptic-scale forcing of Puelche winds in south-central Chile is the passage of cold anticyclonic systems across the Andes Mountains. As these systems progress into the South American continent, a zonal surface circulation crossing from Argentina (upslope) to Chile (downslope) develops. Unlike terral and raco, other foehnlike winds at subtropical latitudes in Chile, the Puelche winds are forced by both meridional and zonal pressure gradients. Presumably, the smaller altitude of the Andes Mountains south of 35°S allows the air crossing from east to west in response to the presence of the migratory high pressure system over Argentina. As in other places where foehnlike winds develop, the warming extends far from places where the Puelche is actually observed, that is, to the west of the Andes into the surface at the coastal and the central depression areas. This “foehn clearance” is the result of cloudless sky and drier atmosphere that would allow an increase in the solar radiation reaching the surface and a subsequent warming of the near-surface air. The foehn clearance also drives an enhanced nighttime cooling, especially on the days after the onset of the Puelche event.
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2017-03-01
    Description: The intermittency of solar power production is dependent on the evolution and advection of the nearby cloud field. A key problem related to solar energy integration is the improvement of 1-h-ahead forecasts to reduce the impact of intermittency on power systems operations. Many solar forecasts explicitly or implicitly assume Taylor’s hypothesis. While such advection-only forecasts can be presumed to be valid across sufficiently short time scales, it is not clear how rapidly the skill of such a forecast decays with increased lead time. As the goal is to improve the quality of 1-h-ahead forecasts, this work focuses on quantifying the skill of cloud-track wind-based cumulus-dominated cloud field forecasts with respect to lead time. No explicit connection is drawn to the quality of solar forecasts because of the importance of separating two potential sources of error: cloud field forecasting and radiative transfer estimation. It is found that the cumulus field forecast skill begins to asymptotically approach a minimum at lead times of beyond 30 min, suggesting that advection-only forecasts in a cumulus-dominated environment should not be relied upon for 1-h-ahead point forecasts used by radiative transfer methods to estimate solar power production. A first attempt at forming a probabilistic forecast that can quantify this increasing uncertainty when using advection-only methods is presented.
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2017-02-17
    Description: Studies have shown that echo returns from clear-air Bragg scatter (CABS) can be used to detect the height of the convective boundary layer and to assess the systematic differential reflectivity (ZDR) bias for a radar site. However, these studies did not use data from operational Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) or data from a large variety of sites. A new algorithm to automatically detect CABS from any operational WSR-88D with dual-polarization capability while excluding contamination from precipitation, biota, and ground clutter is presented here. Visual confirmation and tests related to the sounding parameters’ relative humidity slope, refractivity gradient, and gradient Richardson number are used to assess the algorithm. Results show that automated detection of CABS in operational WSR-88D data gives useful ZDR bias information while omitting the majority of contaminated cases. Such an algorithm holds potential for radar calibration efforts and Bragg scatter studies in general.
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    Publication Date: 2017-05-01
    Description: Neutral-buoyancy vehicles demand high-density energy sources and lithium is light with high oxidation energy. PolyPlus Battery Company has developed a prototype lithium-seawater battery that is attractive for powering long-duration autonomous oceanographic vehicles (floats and underwater gliders). These batteries were tested in the laboratory and at sea. PolyPlus batteries use “Protected Lithium Electrodes” with proprietary “windows” protecting the volatile lithium anode from water while passing lithium ions. The cathode reduces oxygen dissolved in seawater, or hydrolyzes seawater to produce hydrogen. Not requiring additional electrolyte, fuel, or pressure cases, these cells have impressive weight advantages. Good electrode–seawater mass transfer is required but can increase drag and be impeded by biofouling. Tests assessing robustness of the PolyPlus batteries in oceanographic use, evaluating mass transfer issues, and observing biofouling impacts are reported. In sea trials, two cells were tested for 69 days mounted on a Spray glider. Findings are as follows: 1) the cells were robust over 900 dives, most to 400 m; 2) without antifouling measures, the cells became substantially biofouled, but their performance was undiminished; and 3) performance was complex, depending on current density, oxygen concentration, and flow conditions. For dissolved oxygen concentration above 1 mL L−1, the cells delivered 9 W m−2 of electrode surface at 3 V. For low oxygen, the cell shifted to hydrolysis near 2.3 V, but mass transfer was less critical so current density could be increased and observed power reached 5 W m−2. This could be increased using a lower resistance load.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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