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  • American Meteorological Society
  • 2010-2014  (1,993)
  • 1995-1999
  • 2012  (1,993)
  • 1
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    Assimilating Along-Track Altimetric Observations through Local Hydrostatic Adjustment in a Global Ocean Variational Assimilation System (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: A global ocean three-dimensional variational data assimilation system was developed with the aim of assimilating along-track sea level anomaly observations, along with in situ observations from bathythermographs and conventional sea stations. All the available altimetric data within the period October 1992–January 2006 were used in this study. The sea level corrections were covariated with vertical profiles of temperature and salinity according to the bivariate definition of the background-error vertical covariances. Sea level anomaly observational error variance was carefully defined as a sum of instrumental, representativeness, observation operator, and mean dynamic topography error variances. The mean dynamic topography was computed from the model long-term mean sea surface height and adjusted through an optimal interpolation scheme to account for observation minus first-guess biases. Results show that the assimilation of sea level anomaly observations improves the model sea surface height skill scores as well as the subsurface temperature and salinity fields. Furthermore, the estimate of the tropical and subtropical surface circulation is clearly improved after assimilating altimetric data. Nonnegligible impacts of the mean dynamic topography used have also been found: compared to a gravimeter-based mean dynamic topography the use of the mean dynamic topography discussed in this paper improves both the consistency with sea level anomaly observations and the verification skill scores of temperature and salinity in the tropical regions. Furthermore, the use of a mean dynamic topography computed from the model long-term sea surface height mean without observation adjustments results in worsened verification skill scores and highlights the benefits of the current approach for deriving the mean dynamic topography.
    Description: European Commission WP4 Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Bologna Cnes
    Description: Published
    Description: 738-754
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: 4.6. Oceanografia operativa per la valutazione dei rischi in aree marine
    Description: 5.4. Banche dati di geomagnetismo, aeronomia, clima e ambiente
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Data assimilation ; Satellite observations ; Ocean models ; Sea level ; In situ observations ; Variational analysis ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.01. Analytical and numerical modeling ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.04. Ocean data assimilation and reanalysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
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    Baroclinic Stationary Waves in Aquaplanet Models (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: An aquaplanet model is used to study the nature of the highly persistent low-frequency waves that have been observed in models forced by zonally symmetric boundary conditions. Using the Hayashi spectral analysis of the extratropical waves, the authors find that a quasi-stationary wave 5 belongs to a wave packet obeying a well-defined dispersion relation with eastward group velocity. The components of the dispersion relation with k ≥ 5 baroclinically convert eddy available potential energy into eddy kinetic energy, whereas those with k 〈 5 are baroclinically neutral. In agreement with Green’s model of baroclinic instability, wave 5 is weakly unstable, and the inverse energy cascade, which had been previously proposed as a main forcing for this type of wave, only acts as a positive feedback on its predominantly baroclinic energetics. The quasi-stationary wave is reinforced by a phase lock to an analogous pattern in the tropical convection, which provides further amplification to the wave. It is also found that the Pedlosky bounds on the phase speed of unstable waves provide guidance in explaining the latitudinal structure of the energy conversion, which is shown to be more enhanced where the zonal westerly surface wind is weaker. The wave’s energy is then trapped in the waveguide created by the upper tropospheric jet stream. In agreement with Green’s theory, as the equator-to-pole SST difference is reduced, the stationary marginally stable component shifts toward higher wavenumbers, while wave 5 becomes neutral and westward propagating. Some properties of the aquaplanet quasi-stationary waves are found to be in interesting agreement with a low frequency wave observed by Salby during December–February in the Southern Hemisphere so that this perspective on low frequency variability, apart from its value in terms of basic geophysical fluid dynamics, might be of specific interest for studying the earth’s atmosphere.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1023–1040.
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Boundary conditions ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    Quality Assessment of a 1985–2007 Mediterranean Sea Reanalysis (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: A simulation and two reanalyses from 1985 to 2007 have been produced for the Mediterranean Sea using different assimilation schemes: a reduced-order optimal interpolation [System for Ocean Forecast and Analysis (SOFA)] and a three-dimensional variational scheme (OceanVar). The observational dataset consists of vertical temperature and salinity in situ profiles and along-track satellite sea level anomalies; daily mean fields of satellite sea surface temperature are used for correcting the air–sea fluxes. This paper assesses the quality of the reanalyses with respect to observations and the simulation. Both the SOFA and OceanVar schemes give very similar root-mean-square errors and biases for temperature and salinity fields compared with the assimilated observations. The largest errors are at the thermocline level and in regions of large eddy field variability. However, OceanVar gives 20% better results for sea level anomaly root-mean-square error.
    Description: Published
    Description: 569-59
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Mediterranean Sea ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.05. Operational oceanography
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    Parameterisation of the Sedimentation of Raindrops with Finite Maximum Diameter (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Monthly Weather Review., American Meteorological Society, 140(5), pp. 1589-1602
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-04-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 5
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    A comparison of methods for estimating Reynolds stress from ADCP measurements in wavy environments (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 28 (2011): 1539–1553, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00001.1.
    Description: Turbulent Reynolds stresses are now routinely estimated from acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements in estuaries and tidal channels using the variance method, yet biases due to surface gravity waves limit its use in the coastal ocean. Recent modifications to this method, including spatially filtering velocities to isolate the turbulence from wave velocities and fitting a cospectral model to the below-wave band cospectra, have been used to remove this bias. Individually, each modification performed well for the published test datasets, but a comparative analysis over the range of conditions in the coastal ocean has not yet been performed. This work uses ADCP velocity measurements from five previously published coastal ocean and estuarine datasets, which span a range of wave and current conditions as well as instrument configurations, to directly compare methods for estimating stresses in the presence of waves. The computed stresses from each were compared to bottom stress estimates from a quadratic drag law and, where available, estimates of wind stress. These comparisons, along with an analysis of the cospectra, indicated that spectral fitting performs well when the wave climate is wide-banded and/or multidirectional as well as when instrument noise is high. In contrast, spatial filtering performs better when waves are narrow-banded, low frequency, and when wave orbital velocities are strong relative to currents. However, as spatial filtering uses vertically separated velocity bins to remove the wave bias, spectral fitting is able to resolve stresses over a larger fraction of the water column.
    Description: J. Rosman acknowledges funding from the National Science Foundation (OCE-1061108).
    Keywords: Coastal flows ; Momentum ; Ocean circulation ; Waves, oceanic ; In situ observations ; Instrumentation/sensors
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
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    Turbulent kinetic energy dissipation in Barrow Canyon (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 1012–1021, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-11-0184.1.
    Description: Pacific Water flows across the shallow Chukchi Sea before reaching the Arctic Ocean, where it is a source of heat, freshwater, nutrients, and carbon. A substantial portion of Pacific Water is routed through Barrow Canyon, located in the northeast corner of the Chukchi. Barrow Canyon is a region of complex geometry and forcing where a variety of water masses have been observed to coexist. These factors contribute to a dynamic physical environment, with the potential for significant water mass transformation. The measurements of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation presented here indicate diapycnal mixing is important in the upper canyon. Elevated dissipation rates were observed near the pycnocline, effectively mixing winter and summer water masses, as well as within the bottom boundary layer. The slopes of shear/stratification layers, combined with analysis of rotary spectra, suggest that near-inertial wave activity may be important in modulating dissipation near the bottom. Because the canyon is known to be a hotspot of productivity with an active benthic community, mixing may be an important factor in maintenance of the biological environment.
    Description: ELS was supported as a WHOI Postdoctoral Scholar through the WHOI Ocean and Climate Change Institute.
    Description: 2012-12-01
    Keywords: Arctic ; Continental shelf/slope ; Mixing ; Small scale processes
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
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    Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CCSM4 (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 5153–5172, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00463.1.
    Description: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is documented in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) preindustrial control simulation that uses nominal 1° horizontal resolution in all its components. AMOC shows a broad spectrum of low-frequency variability covering the 50–200-yr range, contrasting sharply with the multidecadal variability seen in the T85 × 1 resolution CCSM3 present-day control simulation. Furthermore, the amplitude of variability is much reduced in CCSM4 compared to that of CCSM3. Similarities as well as differences in AMOC variability mechanisms between CCSM3 and CCSM4 are discussed. As in CCSM3, the CCSM4 AMOC variability is primarily driven by the positive density anomalies at the Labrador Sea (LS) deep-water formation site, peaking 2 yr prior to an AMOC maximum. All processes, including parameterized mesoscale and submesoscale eddies, play a role in the creation of salinity anomalies that dominate these density anomalies. High Nordic Sea densities do not necessarily lead to increased overflow transports because the overflow physics is governed by source and interior region density differences. Increased overflow transports do not lead to a higher AMOC either but instead appear to be a precursor to lower AMOC transports through enhanced stratification in LS. This has important implications for decadal prediction studies. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is significantly correlated with the positive boundary layer depth and density anomalies prior to an AMOC maximum. This suggests a role for NAO through setting the surface flux anomalies in LS and affecting the subpolar gyre circulation strength.
    Description: The CCSM project is supported by NSF and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. SGY and YOK were supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office under Climate Variability and Predictability Program Grants NA09OAR4310163 and NA10OAR4310202, respectively.
    Description: 2013-02-01
    Keywords: Meridional overturning circulation ; Coupled models ; Ocean models ; Oceanic variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
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    Energy transfer from high-shear, low-frequency internal waves to high-frequency waves near Kaena Ridge, Hawaii (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 1524–1547, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-11-0117.1.
    Description: Evidence is presented for the transfer of energy from low-frequency inertial–diurnal internal waves to high-frequency waves in the band between 6 cpd and the buoyancy frequency. This transfer links the most energetic waves in the spectrum, those receiving energy directly from the winds, barotropic tides, and parametric subharmonic instability, with those most directly involved in the breaking process. Transfer estimates are based on month-long records of ocean velocity and temperature obtained continuously over 80–800 m from the research platform (R/P) Floating Instrument Platform (FLIP) in the Hawaii Ocean Mixing Experiment (HOME) Nearfield (2002) and Farfield (2001) experiments, in Hawaiian waters. Triple correlations between low-frequency vertical shears and high-frequency Reynolds stresses, uiw∂Ui/∂z, are used to estimate energy transfers. These are supported by bispectral analysis, which show significant energy transfers to pairs of waves with nearly identical frequency. Wavenumber bispectra indicate that the vertical scales of the high-frequency waves are unequal, with one wave of comparable scale to that of the low-frequency parent and the other of much longer scale. The scales of the high-frequency waves contrast with the classical pictures of induced diffusion and elastic scattering interactions and violates the scale-separation assumption of eikonal models of interaction. The possibility that the observed waves are Doppler shifted from intrinsic frequencies near f or N is explored. Peak transfer rates in the Nearfield, an energetic tidal conversion site, are on the order of 2 × 10−7 W kg−1 and are of similar magnitude to estimates of turbulent dissipation that were made near the ridge during HOME. Transfer rates in the Farfield are found to be about half the Nearfield values.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research.
    Description: 2013-03-01
    Keywords: Diapycnal mixing ; Energy transport ; Internal waves ; Nonlinear dynamics ; Ship observations ; Spectral analysis/models/distribution
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
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    Improving HF radar estimates of surface currents using signal quality metrics, with application to the MVCO high-resolution radar system (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 29 (2012): 1377–1390, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00160.1.
    Description: Estimates of surface currents over the continental shelf are now regularly made using high-frequency radar (HFR) systems along much of the U.S. coastline. The recently deployed HFR system at the Martha’s Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO) is a unique addition to these systems, focusing on high spatial resolution over a relatively small coastal ocean domain with high accuracy. However, initial results from the system showed sizable errors and biased estimates of M2 tidal currents, prompting an examination of new methods to improve the quality of radar-based velocity data. The analysis described here utilizes the radial metric output of CODAR Ocean Systems’ version 7 release of the SeaSonde Radial Site Software Suite to examine both the characteristics of the received signal and the output of the direction-finding algorithm to provide data quality controls on the estimated radial currents that are independent of the estimated velocity. Additionally, the effect of weighting spatial averages of radials falling within the same range and azimuthal bin is examined to account for differences in signal quality. Applied to two month-long datasets from the MVCO high-resolution system, these new methods are found to improve the rms difference comparisons with in situ current measurements by up to 2 cm s−1, as well as reduce or eliminate observed biases of tidal ellipses estimated using standard methods.
    Description: 2013-03-01
    Keywords: Coastal flows ; Currents ; Data processing ; Data quality control ; In situ atmospheric observations ; Remote sensing
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
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    Cross-shelf and out-of-bay transport driven by an open-ocean current (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 41 (2011): 2168–2186, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-11-08.1.
    Description: This paper studies the interaction of an Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC)–like wind-driven channel flow with a continental slope and a flat-bottomed bay-shaped shelf near the channel’s southern boundary. Interaction between the model ACC and the topography in the second layer induces local changes of the potential vorticity (PV) flux, which further causes the formation of a first-layer PV front near the base of the topography. Located between the ACC and the first-layer slope, the newly formed PV front is constantly perturbed by the ACC and in turn forces the first-layer slope with its own variability in an intermittent but persistent way. The volume transport of the slope water across the first-layer slope edge is mostly directly driven by eddies and meanders of the new front, and its magnitude is similar to the maximum Ekman transport in the channel. Near the bay’s opening, the effect of the topographic waves, excited by offshore variability, dominates the cross-isobath exchange and induces a mean clockwise shelf circulation. The waves’ propagation is only toward the west and tends to be blocked by the bay’s western boundary in the narrow-shelf region. The ensuing wave–coast interaction amplifies the wave amplitude and the cross-shelf transport. Because the interaction only occurs near the western boundary, the shelf water in the west of the bay is more readily carried offshore than that in the east and the mean shelf circulation is also intensified along the bay’s western boundary.
    Description: Y. Zhang acknowledges the support of the MIT-WHOI Joint Program in Physical Oceanography and NSF OCE-9901654 and OCE- 0451086. J. Pedlosky acknowledges the support of NSF OCE-9901654 and OCE-0451086.
    Keywords: Baroclinic flows ; Eddies ; Fronts ; Mass fluxes/transport ; Mesoscale processes ; Topographic effects
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 11
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    An equatorial ocean bottleneck in global climate models (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 343–349, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00059.1.
    Description: The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) is a major component of the tropical Pacific Ocean circulation. EUC velocity in most global climate models is sluggish relative to observations. Insufficient ocean resolution slows the EUC in the eastern Pacific where nonlinear terms should dominate the zonal momentum balance. A slow EUC in the east creates a bottleneck for the EUC to the west. However, this bottleneck does not impair other major components of the tropical circulation, including upwelling and poleward transport. In most models, upwelling velocity and poleward transport divergence fall within directly estimated uncertainties. Both of these transports play a critical role in a theory for how the tropical Pacific may change under increased radiative forcing, that is, the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism. These findings suggest that, in the mean, global climate models may not underrepresent the role of equatorial ocean circulation, nor perhaps bias the balance between competing mechanisms for how the tropical Pacific might change in the future. Implications for model improvement under higher resolution are also discussed.
    Description: KBK gratefully acknowledges the J. Lamar Worzel Assistant Scientist Fund. GCJ is supported by NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. RM gratefully acknowledges the generous support and hospitality of the Divecha Centre for Climate Change and CAOS at IISc, Bangalore, and partial support by NASA PO grants.
    Description: 2012-07-01
    Keywords: Tropics ; Ocean circulation ; Ocean dynamics ; Climate models ; Coupled models ; Ocean models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 12
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    The global subduction/obduction rates : their interannual and decadal variability (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 1096–1115, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4228.1.
    Description: Ventilation, including subduction and obduction, for the global oceans was examined using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) outputs. The global subduction rate averaged over the period from 1959 to 2006 is estimated at 505.8 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), while the corresponding global obduction rate is estimated at 482.1 Sv. The annual subduction/obduction rates vary greatly on the interannual and decadal time scales. The global subduction rate is estimated to have increased 7.6% over the past 50 years, while the obduction rate is estimated to have increased 9.8%. Such trends may be insignificant because errors associated with the data generated by ocean data assimilation could be as large as 10%. However, a major physical mechanism that induced these trends is primarily linked to changes in the Southern Ocean. While the Southern Ocean plays a key role in global subduction and obduction rates and their variability, both the Southern Ocean and equatorial regions are critically important sites of water mass formation/erosion.
    Description: This work was supported by the Key State Basic Research Program of China under Grant 2012CB417401, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 40906007, 40890152), and the Open Foundation of Physical Oceanography Laboratory, OUC, under Grant 200902.
    Description: 2012-08-15
    Keywords: Decadal variability ; Southern Ocean ; Trends ; Water masses ; Convergence ; Mixing
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 13
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    Horizontal density structure and restratification of the Arctic Ocean surface layer (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 659–668, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-11-0125.1.
    Description: Ice-tethered profiler (ITP) measurements from the Arctic Ocean’s Canada Basin indicate an ocean surface layer beneath sea ice with significant horizontal density structure on scales of hundreds of kilometers to the order 1 km submesoscale. The observed horizontal gradients in density are dynamically important in that they are associated with restratification of the surface ocean when dense water flows under light water. Such restratification is prevalent in wintertime and competes with convective mixing upon buoyancy forcing (e.g., ice growth and brine rejection) and shear-driven mixing when the ice moves relative to the ocean. Frontal structure and estimates of the balanced Richardson number point to the likelihood of dynamical restratification by isopycnal tilt and submesoscale baroclinic instability. Based on the evidence here, it is likely that submesoscale processes play an important role in setting surface-layer properties and lateral density variability in the Arctic Ocean.
    Description: Funding was provided by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Arctic Sciences Section under Awards ARC-0519899, ARC-0856479, and ARC-0806306. Support was also provided by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Arctic Research Initiative.
    Description: 2012-10-01
    Keywords: Arctic ; Ocean dynamics
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  • 14
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    ENSO and Pacific decadal variability in the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 2622–2651, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00301.1.
    Description: This study presents an overview of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and Pacific decadal variability (PDV) simulated in a multicentury preindustrial control integration of the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) at nominal 1° latitude–longitude resolution. Several aspects of ENSO are improved in CCSM4 compared to its predecessor CCSM3, including the lengthened period (3–6 yr), the larger range of amplitude and frequency of events, and the longer duration of La Niña compared to El Niño. However, the overall magnitude of ENSO in CCSM4 is overestimated by ~30%. The simulated ENSO exhibits characteristics consistent with the delayed/recharge oscillator paradigm, including correspondence between the lengthened period and increased latitudinal width of the anomalous equatorial zonal wind stress. Global seasonal atmospheric teleconnections with accompanying impacts on precipitation and temperature are generally well simulated, although the wintertime deepening of the Aleutian low erroneously persists into spring. The vertical structure of the upper-ocean temperature response to ENSO in the north and south Pacific displays a realistic seasonal evolution, with notable asymmetries between warm and cold events. The model shows evidence of atmospheric circulation precursors over the North Pacific associated with the “seasonal footprinting mechanism,” similar to observations. Simulated PDV exhibits a significant spectral peak around 15 yr, with generally realistic spatial pattern and magnitude. However, PDV linkages between the tropics and extratropics are weaker than observed.
    Description: M. Alexander, A. Capotondi, and J. Scott’s participation was supported by a grant from the NSF Climate and Large-scale Dynamics Program. Y.-O. Kwon gratefully acknowledges support from a WHOI Heyman fellowship and a grant from the NSF Climate and Largescale Dynamics Program. The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy.
    Description: 2012-10-15
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; El Nino ; ENSO ; La Nina ; Pacific decadal oscillation ; Climate models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 15
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    High-latitude contribution to global variability of air–sea sensible heat flux (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 3515–3531, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00028.1.
    Description: The study examined global variability of air–sea sensible heat flux (SHF) from 1980 to 2009 and the large-scale atmospheric and ocean circulations that gave rise to this variability. The contribution of high-latitude wintertime SHF was identified, and the relative importance of the effect of the sea–air temperature difference versus the effect of wind on decadal SHF variability was analyzed using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) approach. The study showed that global SHF anomalies are strongly modulated by SHF at high latitudes (poleward of 45°) during winter seasons. Decadal variability of global wintertime SHF can be reasonably represented by the sum of two leading EOF modes, namely, the boreal wintertime SHF in the northern oceans and the austral wintertime SHF in the southern oceans. The study also showed that global wintertime SHF is modulated by the prominent modes of the large-scale atmospheric circulation at high latitudes. The increase of global SHF in the 1990s is attributable to the strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode index, while the decrease of global SHF after 2000 is due primarily to the downward trend of the Arctic Oscillation index. This study identified the important effects of wind direction and speed on SHF variability. Changes in winds modify the sea–air temperature gradient by advecting cold and dry air from continents and by imposing changes in wind-driven oceanic processes that affect sea surface temperature (SST). The pattern of air temperature anomalies dominates over the pattern of SST anomalies and dictates the pattern of decadal SHF variability.
    Description: The study is supported by the NOAA Office of Climate Observations (OCO) and the WHOI Arctic Climate Initiative. X. Song acknowledges the support from the China Scholarship Council, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (40930844, 40976004, and 40921004) and the Ministry of Education’s 111 Project (B07036).
    Description: 2012-11-15
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction
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  • 16
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    On the response of a buoyant plume to downwelling-favorable wind stress (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 1083–1098, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-11-015.1.
    Description: Here, the response of a coastally trapped buoyant plume to downwelling-favorable wind forcing is explored using a simplified two-dimensional numerical model and a prognostic theory for the resulting width, depth, and density anomaly and along-shelf transport of the plume. Consistent with the numerical simulations, the analytical model shows that the wind causes mixing of the plume water and that the forced cross-shelf circulation can also generate significant deepening and surface narrowing, as well as increased along-shelf transport. The response is due to a combination of the purely advective process that leads to the steepening of the isopycnals and the entrainment of ambient water into the plume. The advective component depends on the initial plume geometry: plumes that have a large fraction of their total width in contact with the bottom (“bottom trapped”) suffer relatively small depth and width changes compared to plumes that have a large fraction of their total width detached from the bottom (“surface trapped”). Key theoretical parameters are Wγ/Wα, the ratio of the width of the plume detached from the bottom to the width of the plume in contact with it, and the ratio of the wind-generated mixed layer δe to the initial plume depth hp, which determines the amount of water initially entrained into the plume. The model results also show that the cross-shelf circulation can be strongly influenced by the wind-driven response in combination with the geostrophic shear of the plume. The continuous entrainment into the plume, as well as transient events, is also discussed.
    Description: This work has been supported by FONDECYT Grant 1070501. S. Lentz received support by theNational Science Foundation GrantOCE-0751554. C. Moffat had additional support from the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs through U.S. Southern Ocean GLOBEC Grants OPP 99-10092 and 06- 23223.
    Description: 2013-01-01
    Keywords: Baroclinic flows ; Boundary currents ; Coastal flows ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Wind ; Ocean models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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    ENSO’s impact on the gap wind regions of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 3549–3565, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00320.1.
    Description: The recently released NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) is used to examine the response to ENSO in the northeast tropical Pacific Ocean (NETP) during 1979–2009. The normally cool Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with wind jets through the gaps in the Central American mountains at Tehuantepec, Papagayo, and Panama are substantially warmer (colder) than the surrounding ocean during El Niño (La Niña) events. Ocean dynamics generate the ENSO-related SST anomalies in the gap wind regions as the surface fluxes damp the SSTs anomalies, while the Ekman heat transport is generally in quadrature with the anomalies. The ENSO-driven warming is associated with large-scale deepening of the thermocline; with the cold thermocline water at greater depths during El Niño in the NETP, it is less likely to be vertically mixed to the surface, particularly in the gap wind regions where the thermocline is normally very close to the surface. The thermocline deepening is enhanced to the south of the Costa Rica Dome in the Papagayo region, which contributes to the local ENSO-driven SST anomalies. The NETP thermocline changes are due to coastal Kelvin waves that initiate westward-propagating Rossby waves, and possibly ocean eddies, rather than by local Ekman pumping. These findings were confirmed with regional ocean model experiments: only integrations that included interannually varying ocean boundary conditions were able to simulate the thermocline deepening and localized warming in the NETP during El Niño events; the simulation with variable surface fluxes, but boundary conditions that repeated the seasonal cycle, did not.
    Description: This research was supported by grants from the NOAA office of Global Programs and the NSF Climate and Global Dynamics Division.
    Description: 2012-11-15
    Keywords: North Pacific Ocean ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; ENSO ; Thermocline circulation ; Waves, oceanic ; Ocean models
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    A surface mooring for air–sea interaction research in the Gulf Stream. Part I : mooring design and instrumentation (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 29 (2012): 1363–1376, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00060.1.
    Description: The design of a surface mooring for deployment in the Gulf Stream in the Mid-Atlantic Bight is described. The authors' goals were to observe the surface meteorology; upper-ocean variability; and air–sea exchanges of heat, freshwater, and momentum in and near the Gulf Stream during two successive 1-yr deployments. Of particular interest was quantifying these air–sea fluxes during wintertime events that carry cold, dry air from the land over the Gulf Stream. Historical current data and information about the surface waves were used to guide the design of the surface mooring. The surface buoy provided the platform for both bulk meteorological sensors and a direct covariance flux system. Redundancy in the meteorological sensors proved to be a largely successful strategy to obtain complete time series. Oceanographic instrumentation was limited in size by considerations of drag; and two current meters, three temperature–salinity recorders, and 15 temperature recorders were deployed. Deployment from a single-screw vessel in the Gulf Stream required a controlled-drift stern first over the anchor sites. The first deployment lasted the planned full year. The second deployment ended after 3 months when the mooring was cut by unknown means at a depth of about 3000 m. The mooring was at times in the core of the Gulf Stream, and a peak surface current of over 2.7 m s−1 was observed. The 15-month records of surface meteorology and air–sea fluxes captured the seasonal variability as well as several cold-air outbreaks; the peak observed heat loss was in excess of 1400 W m−2.
    Description: This work was funded by the National Science Foundation Grant OCE04-24536 as part of the CLIVAR Mode Water Dynamics Experiment (CLIMODE). The Vetlesen Foundation is also acknowledged for the early support of SB.
    Description: 2013-03-01
    Keywords: Buoy observations
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  • 19
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    The unpredictable nature of internal tides on continental shelves (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 1981–2000, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-12-028.1.
    Description: Packets of nonlinear internal waves (NLIWs) in a small area of the Mid-Atlantic Bight were 10 times more energetic during a local neap tide than during the preceding spring tide. This counterintuitive result cannot be explained if the waves are generated near the shelf break by the local barotropic tide since changes in shelfbreak stratification explain only a small fraction of the variability in barotropic to baroclinic conversion. Instead, this study suggests that the occurrence of strong NLIWs was caused by the shoaling of distantly generated internal tides with amplitudes that are uncorrelated with the local spring-neap cycle. An extensive set of moored observations show that NLIWs are correlated with the internal tide but uncorrelated with barotropic tide. Using harmonic analysis of a 40-day record, this study associates steady-phase motions at the shelf break with waves generated by the local barotropic tide and variable-phase motions with the shoaling of distantly generated internal tides. The dual sources of internal tide energy (local or remote) mean that shelf internal tides and NLIWs will be predictable with a local model only if the locally generated internal tides are significantly stronger than shoaling internal tides. Since the depth-integrated internal tide energy in the open ocean can greatly exceed that on the shelf, it is likely that shoaling internal tides control the energetics on shelves that are directly exposed to the open ocean.
    Description: This research was supported by ONR Grants N00014-05-1-0271, N00014-08-1-0991, N00014-04- 1-0146, and N00014-11-1-0194.
    Description: 2013-05-01
    Keywords: Internal waves ; Nonlinear dynamics ; Tides
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  • 20
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    Two configurations of the Western Arctic Shelfbreak Current in summer (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 329-351, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-11-026.1.
    Description: Data from a closely spaced array of moorings situated across the Beaufort Sea shelfbreak at 152°W are used to study the Western Arctic Shelfbreak Current, with emphasis on its configuration during the summer season. Two dynamically distinct states of the current are revealed in the absence of wind, with each lasting approximately one month. The first is a surface-intensified shelfbreak jet transporting warm and buoyant Alaskan Coastal Water in late summer. This is the eastward continuation of the Alaskan Coastal Current. It is both baroclinically and barotropically unstable and hence capable of forming the surface-intensified warm-core eddies observed in the southern Beaufort Sea. The second configuration, present during early summer, is a bottom-intensified shelfbreak current advecting weakly stratified Chukchi Summer Water. It is baroclinically unstable and likely forms the middepth warm-core eddies present in the interior basin. The mesoscale instabilities extract energy from the mean flow such that the surface-intensified jet should spin down over an e-folding distance of 300 km beyond the array site, whereas the bottom-intensified configuration should decay within 150 km. This implies that Pacific Summer Water does not extend far into the Canadian Beaufort Sea as a well-defined shelfbreak current. In contrast, the Pacific Winter Water configuration of the shelfbreak jet is estimated to decay over a much greater distance of approximately 1400 km, implying that it should reach the first entrance to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
    Description: This work was supported by National Science Foundation GrantsOCE-0726640,OPP-0731928, and OPP-0713250.
    Description: 2012-09-01
    Keywords: Arctic ; Continental shelf/slope ; Boundary currents
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  • 21
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    Estuarine exchange flow quantified with isohaline coordinates : contrasting long and short estuaries (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 748–763, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-11-086.1.
    Description: Isohaline coordinate analysis is used to compare the exchange flow in two contrasting estuaries, the long (with respect to tidal excursion) Hudson River and the short Merrimack River, using validated numerical models. The isohaline analysis averages fluxes in salinity space rather than in physical space, yielding the isohaline exchange flow that incorporates both subtidal and tidal fluxes and precisely satisfies the Knudsen relation. The isohaline analysis can be consistently applied to both subtidally and tidally dominated estuaries. In the Hudson, the isohaline exchange flow is similar to results from the Eulerian analysis, and the conventional estuarine theory can be used to quantify the salt transport based on scaling with the baroclinic pressure gradient. In the Merrimack, the isohaline exchange flow is much larger than the Eulerian quantity, indicating the dominance of tidal salt flux. The exchange flow does not scale with the baroclinic pressure gradient but rather with tidal volume flux. This tidal exchange is driven by tidal pumping due to the jet–sink flow at the mouth constriction, leading to a linear dependence of exchange flow on tidal volume flux. Finally, a tidal conversion parameter Qin/Qprism, measuring the fraction of tidal inflow Qprism that is converted into net exchange Qin, is proposed to characterize the exchange processes among different systems. It is found that the length scale ratio between tidal excursion and salinity intrusion provides a characteristic to distinguish estuarine regimes.
    Description: SNC is supported by a WHOI postdoctoral scholarship, a NSF Grant OCE-0926427, and a Taiwan National Science Council Grant NSC 100- 2199-M-002-028.WRGis supported byNSFGrantOCE- 0926427. JAL is supported by NSF Grant OCE-0452054.
    Description: 2012-11-01
    Keywords: Coastal flows
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  • 22
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    The role of advection, straining, and mixing on the tidal variability of estuarine stratification (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 855–868, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-10-05010.1.
    Description: Data from the Hudson River estuary demonstrate that the tidal variations in vertical salinity stratification are not consistent with the patterns associated with along-channel tidal straining. These observations result from three additional processes not accounted for in the traditional tidal straining model: 1) along-channel and 2) lateral advection of horizontal gradients in the vertical salinity gradient and 3) tidal asymmetries in the strength of vertical mixing. As a result, cross-sectionally averaged values of the vertical salinity gradient are shown to increase during the flood tide and decrease during the ebb. Only over a limited portion of the cross section does the observed stratification increase during the ebb and decrease during the flood. These observations highlight the three-dimensional nature of estuarine flows and demonstrate that lateral circulation provides an alternate mechanism that allows for the exchange of materials between surface and bottom waters, even when direct turbulent mixing through the pycnocline is prohibited by strong stratification.
    Description: The funding for this research was obtained from NSF Grant OCE-08-25226.
    Description: 2012-11-01
    Keywords: Mixing ; Ocean circulation ; Shear structure/flows ; Transport ; Turbulence
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  • 23
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    On the nature and variability of the east Greenland Spill Jet : a case study in Summer 2003 (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 41 (2011): 2307–2327, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-10-05004.1.
    Description: Results from a high-resolution (~2 km) numerical simulation of the Irminger Basin during summer 2003 are presented. The focus is on the East Greenland Spill Jet, a recently discovered component of the circulation in the basin. The simulation compares well with observations of surface fields, the Denmark Strait overflow (DSO), and the hydrographic structure of typical sections in the basin. The model reveals new aspects of the circulation on scales of O(0.1–10) days and O(1–100) km. The model Spill Jet results from the cascade of dense waters over the East Greenland shelf. Spilling can occur in various locations southwest of the strait, and it is present throughout the simulation but exhibits large variations on periods of O(0.1–10) days. The Spill Jet sometimes cannot be distinguished in the velocity field from surface eddies or from the DSO. The vorticity structure of the jet confirms its unstable nature with peak relative and tilting vorticity terms reaching twice the planetary vorticity term. The average model Spill Jet transport is 4.9 ±1.7 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) equatorward, about 2½ times larger than has been previously reported from a single ship transect in August 2001. Kinematic analysis of the model results suggests two different types of spilling events. In the first case (type I), a local perturbation results in dense waters descending over the shelf break into the Irminger Basin. In the second case (type II), surface cyclones associated with DSO deep domes initiate the spilling process. During summer 2003, more than half of the largest Spill Jet transport values are of type II.
    Description: The research is supported by the National Science Foundation Grants OCE-0726393 and OCI-0904640 (MGM and TWNH) and OCE-0726640 (RSP).
    Description: 2012-06-01
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; In situ observations ; Regional models
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    Subtropical mode water variability in a climatologically forced model in the northwestern Pacific Ocean (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 126–140, doi:10.1175/2011JPO4513.1.
    Description: A climatologically forced high-resolution model is used to examine variability of subtropical mode water (STMW) in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Despite the use of annually repeating atmospheric forcing, significant interannual to decadal variability is evident in the volume, temperature, and age of STMW formed in the region. This long time-scale variability is intrinsic to the ocean. The formation and characteristics of STMW are comparable to those observed in nature. STMW is found to be cooler, denser, and shallower in the east than in the west, but time variations in these properties are generally correlated across the full water mass. Formation is found to occur south of the Kuroshio Extension, and after formation STMW is advected westward, as shown by the transport streamfunction. The ideal age and chlorofluorocarbon tracers are used to analyze the life cycle of STMW. Over the full model run, the average age of STMW is found to be 4.1 yr, but there is strong geographical variation in this, from an average age of 3.0 yr in the east to 4.9 yr in the west. This is further evidence that STMW is formed in the east and travels to the west. This is qualitatively confirmed through simulated dye experiments known as transit-time distributions. Changes in STMW formation are correlated with a large meander in the path of the Kuroshio south of Japan. In the model, the large meander inhibits STMW formation just south of Japan, but the export of water with low potential vorticity leads to formation of STMW in the east and an overall increase in volume. This is correlated with an increase in the outcrop area of STMW. Mixed layer depth, on the other hand, is found to be uncorrelated with the volume of STMW.
    Description: E.M.D. acknowledges support of the Doherty Foundation and National Science Foundation (OCE-0849808). S.R.J was sponsored by the National Science Foundation (OCE-0849808). Participation of S.P. and F.B. was supported by the National Science Foundation by its sponsorship of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
    Description: 2012-07-01
    Keywords: Water masses ; Pacific Ocean ; Tracers ; Advection ; Forcing ; Interannual variuability
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  • 25
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    The modification of bottom boundary layer turbulence and mixing by internal waves shoaling on a barrier reef (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 41 (2011): 2223–2241, doi:10.1175/2011JPO4344.1.
    Description: Results are presented from an observational study of stratified, turbulent flow in the bottom boundary layer on the outer southeast Florida shelf. Measurements of momentum and heat fluxes were made using an array of acoustic Doppler velocimeters and fast-response temperature sensors in the bottom 3 m over a rough reef slope. Direct estimates of flux Richardson number Rf confirm previous laboratory, numerical, and observational work, which find mixing efficiency not to be a constant but rather to vary with Frt, Reb, and Rig. These results depart from previous observations in that the highest levels of mixing efficiency occur for Frt 〈 1, suggesting that efficient mixing can also happen in regions of buoyancy-controlled turbulence. Generally, the authors find that turbulence in the reef bottom boundary layer is highly variable in time and modified by near-bed flow, shear, and stratification driven by shoaling internal waves.
    Description: Funding was provided by grants from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Undersea Research Program, National Science Foundation Grants OCE-0622967 and OCE- 0824972 to SGM, and the Singapore Stanford Program. Kristen Davis was supported by a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship and an ARCS Foundation Fellowship.
    Keywords: Boundary layer ; Turbulence ; Bottom currents ; Mixing ; Internal waves
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    Resonant and near-resonant internal wave interactions (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 669–691, doi:10.1175/2011JPO4129.1.
    Description: The spectral energy density of the internal waves in the open ocean is considered. The Garrett and Munk spectrum and the resonant kinetic equation are used as the main tools of the study. Evaluations of a resonant kinetic equation that suggest the slow time evolution of the Garrett and Munk spectrum is not in fact slow are reported. Instead, nonlinear transfers lead to evolution time scales that are smaller than one wave period at high vertical wavenumber. Such values of the transfer rates are inconsistent with the viewpoint expressed in papers by C. H. McComas and P. Müller, and by P. Müller et al., which regards the Garrett and Munk spectrum as an approximate stationary state of the resonant kinetic equation. It also puts the self-consistency of a resonant kinetic equation at a serious risk. The possible reasons for and resolutions of this paradox are explored. Inclusion of near-resonant interactions decreases the rate at which the spectrum evolves. Consequently, this inclusion shows a tendency of improving of self-consistency of the kinetic equation approach.
    Description: YL is supported by NSF DMS Grant 0807871 and ONR Award N00014-09-1-0515.
    Description: 2012-11-01
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  • 27
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    Mechanisms behind the temporary shutdown of deep convection in the Labrador Sea : lessons from the Great Salinity Anomaly years 1968–71 (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 6743–6755, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00549.1.
    Description: From 1969 to 1971 convection in the Labrador Sea shut down, thus interrupting the formation of the intermediate/dense water masses. The shutdown has been attributed to the surface freshening induced by the Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA), a freshwater anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic. The abrupt resumption of convection in 1972, in contrast, is attributed to the extreme atmospheric forcing of that winter. Here oceanic and atmospheric data collected in the Labrador Sea at Ocean Weather Station Bravo and a one-dimensional mixed layer model are used to examine the causes of the shutdown and resumption of convection in detail. These results highlight the tight coupling of the ocean and atmosphere in convection regions and the need to resolve both components to correctly represent convective processes in the ocean. They are also relevant to present-day conditions given the increased ice melt in the Arctic Ocean and from the Greenland Ice Sheet. The analysis herein shows that the shutdown was initiated by the GSA-induced freshening as well as the mild 1968/69 winter. After the shutdown had begun, however, the continuing lateral freshwater flux as well as two positive feedbacks [both associated with the sea surface temperature (SST) decrease due to lack of convective mixing with warmer subsurface water] further inhibited convection. First, the SST decrease reduced the heat flux to the atmosphere by reducing the air–sea temperature gradient. Second, it further reduced the surface buoyancy loss by reducing the thermal expansion coefficient of the surface water. In 1972 convection resumed because of both the extreme atmospheric forcing and advection of saltier waters into the convection region.
    Description: This research was funded by a grant from the NWO/SRON User Support Programme Space Research. FS acknowledges support from OCE- 0850416 and NOAA NA08OAR4310569.
    Description: 2013-04-01
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Intermediate waters ; Oceanic variability
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  • 28
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    Wavenumber–frequency spectra of inertia–gravity and mixed Rossby–gravity waves in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 1859–1881, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-11-0235.1.
    Description: In the 1970s and 1980s, there was considerable interest in near-equatorial variability at periods of days to weeks associated with oceanic equatorial inertia–gravity waves and mixed Rossby–gravity waves. At that time, the measurements available for studying these waves were much more limited than today: most of the available observations were from scattered island tide gauges and a handful of short mooring records. More than a decade of the extensive modern data record from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO)/Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TRITON) mooring array in the Pacific Ocean is used to reexamine the internal-wave climate in the equatorial Pacific, with a focus on interpretation of the zonal-wavenumber/frequency spectrum of surface dynamic height relative to 500 decibars at periods of 3–15 days and zonal wavelengths exceeding 30° of longitude. To facilitate interpretation of the dynamic height spectrum and identification of equatorial wave modes, the spectrum is decomposed into separate spectra associated with dynamic height fluctuations that are symmetric or antisymmetric about the equator. Many equatorial-wave meridional modes can be identified, for both the first and second baroclinic mode. Zonal-wavenumber/frequency spectra of the zonal and meridional wind stress components are also examined. The observed wind stress spectra are used with linear theory of forced equatorial waves to provide a tentative explanation for the zonal-wavenumber extent of the spectral peaks seen in dynamic height. Examination of the cross-equatorial symmetry properties of the wind stress suggests that virtually all of the large-scale equatorial inertia–gravity and mixed Rossby–gravity waves examined may be sensitive to both zonal and meridional wind stress.
    Description: This research was funded by NASA Grant NNX10AO93G.
    Description: 2013-05-01
    Keywords: Inertia-gravity waves
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    The mean age of ocean waters inferred from radiocarbon observations : sensitivity to surface sources and accounting for mixing histories (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 291–305, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-11-043.1.
    Description: A number of previous observational studies have found that the waters of the deep Pacific Ocean have an age, or elapsed time since contact with the surface, of 700–1000 yr. Numerical models suggest ages twice as old. Here, the authors present an inverse framework to determine the mean age and its upper and lower bounds given Global Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) radiocarbon observations, and they show that the potential range of ages increases with the number of constituents or sources that are included in the analysis. The inversion requires decomposing the World Ocean into source waters, which is obtained here using the total matrix intercomparison (TMI) method at up to 2° × 2° horizontal resolution with 11 113 surface sources. The authors find that the North Pacific at 2500-m depth can be no younger than 1100 yr old, which is older than some previous observational estimates. Accounting for the broadness of surface regions where waters originate leads to a reservoir-age correction of almost 100 yr smaller than would be estimated with a two or three water-mass decomposition and explains some of the discrepancy with previous observational studies. A best estimate of mean age is also presented using the mixing history along circulation pathways. Subject to the caveats that inference of the mixing history would benefit from further observations and that radiocarbon cannot rule out the presence of extremely old waters from exotic sources, the deep North Pacific waters are 1200–1500 yr old, which is more in line with existing numerical model results.
    Description: GG is supported by the J. Lamar Worzel Assistant Scientist Fund and the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists. PJH is supported by NSF Award 0960787.
    Description: 2012-08-01
    Keywords: North Pacific Ocean ; Mass fluxes/transport ; Ocean circulation ; Tracers ; Optimization ; Variational analysis
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    The CCSM4 ocean component (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 1361–1389, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00091.1.
    Description: The ocean component of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) is described, and its solutions from the twentieth-century (20C) simulations are documented in comparison with observations and those of CCSM3. The improvements to the ocean model physical processes include new parameterizations to represent previously missing physics and modifications of existing parameterizations to incorporate recent new developments. In comparison with CCSM3, the new solutions show some significant improvements that can be attributed to these model changes. These include a better equatorial current structure, a sharper thermocline, and elimination of the cold bias of the equatorial cold tongue all in the Pacific Ocean; reduced sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity biases along the North Atlantic Current path; and much smaller potential temperature and salinity biases in the near-surface Pacific Ocean. Other improvements include a global-mean SST that is more consistent with the present-day observations due to a different spinup procedure from that used in CCSM3. Despite these improvements, many of the biases present in CCSM3 still exist in CCSM4. A major concern continues to be the substantial heat content loss in the ocean during the preindustrial control simulation from which the 20C cases start. This heat loss largely reflects the top of the atmospheric model heat loss rate in the coupled system, and it essentially determines the abyssal ocean potential temperature biases in the 20C simulations. There is also a deep salty bias in all basins. As a result of this latter bias in the deep North Atlantic, the parameterized overflow waters cannot penetrate much deeper than in CCSM3.
    Description: NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. The CCSM is also sponsored by the Department of Energy. SGY was supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office under Climate Variability and Predictability Program Grant NA09OAR4310163.
    Description: 2012-09-01
    Keywords: Ocean circulation ; Climate models ; General circulation models ; Ocean models
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    Buoyancy arrest and shelf–ocean exchange (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 644–658, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-11-0143.1.
    Description: When steady flow in a stratified ocean passes between the continental slope and open ocean, its ability to cross isobaths is potentially limited by buoyancy arrest. If the bottom Ekman transport vanishes and there are no interior stresses, then steady linear flow on an f plane must be geostrophic and follow isobaths exactly. The influence of arrest on cross-shelf transport is investigated here to establish 1) whether there are substantial penetration asymmetries between cases with upwelling and downwelling in the bottom boundary layer; 2) over what spatial scales, hence in what parameter regime, buoyancy arrest is important; and 3) the effects of depth-dependent interior flow. The problem is approached using scalings and idealized numerical models. The results show that there is little or no asymmetry introduced by bottom boundary layer behavior. Further, if the stratification is weak or moderate, as measured by a slope Burger number s = αN/f (where α is the bottom slope, N is buoyancy frequency, and f is the Coriolis parameter), buoyancy arrest does not exert a strong constraint on cross-isobath exchange.
    Description: This research was supported by the National Science Foundation Physical Oceanography program through Grant OCE-0849498.
    Description: 2012-10-01
    Keywords: Coastal flows ; Ekman pumping/transport
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    Influences of precipitation on water mass transformation and deep convection (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 1684–1700, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-11-0230.1.
    Description: The influences of precipitation on water mass transformation and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation in marginal seas are studied using theoretical and idealized numerical models. Nondimensional equations are developed for the temperature and salinity anomalies of deep convective water masses, making explicit their dependence on both geometric parameters such as basin area, sill depth, and latitude, as well as on the strength of atmospheric forcing. In addition to the properties of the convective water, the theory also predicts the magnitude of precipitation required to shut down deep convection and switch the circulation into the haline mode. High-resolution numerical model calculations compare well with the theory for the properties of the convective water mass, the strength of the meridional overturning circulation, and also the shutdown of deep convection. However, the numerical model also shows that, for precipitation levels that exceed this critical threshold, the circulation retains downwelling and northward heat transport, even in the absence of deep convection.
    Description: This study was supported by the National Science Foundation underGrantsOCE-0850416, OCE-0959381, andOCE-0859381.
    Description: 2013-04-01
    Keywords: Boundary currents ; Deep convection ; Eddies ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Ocean dynamics ; Stability
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    The wavenumber–frequency content of resonantly excited equatorial waves (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 1834–1858, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-11-0234.1.
    Description: The theoretical resonant excitation of equatorial inertia–gravity waves and mixed Rossby–gravity waves is examined. Contrary to occasionally published expectations, solutions show that winds that are broadband in both zonal wavenumber and frequency do not in general produce peaks in the wavenumber–frequency spectrum of sea surface height (SSH) at wavenumbers associated with vanishing zonal group velocity. Excitation of total wave energy in inertia–gravity modes by broadband zonal winds is virtually wavenumber independent when the meridional structure of the winds does not impose a bias toward negative or positive zonal wavenumbers. With increasing wavenumber magnitude |k|, inertia–gravity waves asymptote toward zonally propagating pure gravity waves, in which the magnitude of meridional velocity υ becomes progressively smaller relative to the magnitude of zonal velocity u and pressure p. When the total wave energy is independent of wavenumber, this effect produces a peak in |υ|2 near the wavenumber where group velocity vanishes, but a trough in |p|2 (or SSH variance). Another consequence of the shift toward pure gravity wave structure is that broadband meridional winds excite inertia–gravity modes progressively less efficiently as |k| increases and υ becomes less important to the wave structure. Broadband meridional winds produce a low-wavenumber peak in total wave energy leading to a subtle elevation of |p|2 at low wavenumbers, but this is due entirely to the decrease in the forcing efficiency of meridional winds with increasing |k|, rather than to the vanishing of the group velocity. Physical conditions that might alter the above conclusions are discussed.
    Description: This research was funded by NASA Grant NNX10AO93G.
    Description: 2013-05-01
    Keywords: Inertia-gravity waves ; Ocean dynamics
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    Is a Decline of AMOC Causing the Warming Hole above the North Atlantic in Observed and Modeled Warming Patterns? (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-12-15
    Description: The pattern of global mean temperature (GMT) change is calculated by regressing local surface air temperature (SAT) to GMT for an ensemble of CMIP5 models and for observations over the last 132 years. Calculations are based on the historical period and climate change scenarios. As in the observations the warming pattern contains a warming hole over the subpolar North Atlantic. Using a bivariate regression of SAT to GMT and an index of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the warming pattern is decomposed in a radiatively forced part and an AMOC fingerprint. The North Atlantic warming hole is associated with a decline of the AMOC. The AMOC fingerprint resembles Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), but details of the pattern change when the AMOC decline increases, underscoring the nonlinearity in the response. The warming hole is situated south of deep convection sites, indicating that it involves an adjustment of the gyre circulation, although it should be noted that some models feature deep convection in the middle of the subpolar gyre. The warming hole is already prominent in historical runs, where the response of the AMOC to GMT is weak, which suggests that it is involved in an ocean adjustment that precedes the AMOC decline. In the more strongly forced scenario runs, the warming hole over the subpolar gyre becomes weaker, while cooling over the Nordic seas increases, consistent with previous findings that deep convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas is more vulnerable to changes in external forcing than convection in the Nordic seas, which only reacts after a threshold is passed.
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    Evaluation of Microphysics Parameterization for Convective Clouds in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-12-15
    Description: A physically based two-moment microphysics parameterization scheme for convective clouds is implemented in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) to improve the representation of convective clouds and their interaction with large-scale clouds and aerosols. The explicit treatment of mass mixing ratio and number concentration of cloud and precipitation particles enables the scheme to account for the impact of aerosols on convection. The scheme is linked to aerosols through cloud droplet activation and ice nucleation processes and to stratiform cloud parameterization through convective detrainment of cloud liquid/ice water content (LWC/IWC) and droplet/crystal number concentration (DNC/CNC). A 5-yr simulation with the new convective microphysics scheme shows that both cloud LWC/IWC and DNC/CNC are in good agreement with observations, indicating the scheme describes microphysical processes in convection well. Moreover, the microphysics scheme is able to represent the aerosol effects on convective clouds such as the suppression of warm rain formation and enhancement of freezing when aerosol loading is increased. With more realistic simulations of convective cloud microphysical properties and their detrainment, the mid- and low-level cloud fraction is increased significantly over the ITCZ–southern Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and subtropical oceans, making it much closer to the observations. Correspondingly, the serious negative bias in cloud liquid water path over subtropical oceans observed in the standard CAM5 is reduced markedly. The large-scale precipitation is increased and precipitation distribution is improved as well. The long-standing precipitation bias in the western Pacific is significantly alleviated because of microphysics–thermodynamics feedbacks.
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    Variations in Tropical Cyclone Genesis Factors in Simulations of the Holocene Epoch (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Description: The thermodynamic factors related to tropical cyclone genesis are examined in several simulations of the middle part of the Holocene epoch when the precession of Earth’s orbit altered the seasonal distribution of solar radiation and in one transient simulation of the millennium preceding the industrial era. The thermodynamic properties most crucial for genesis display a broad stability across both periods, although both orbital variations during the mid-Holocene (MH) 6000 years ago (6ka) and volcanic eruptions in the transient simulation have detectable effects. It is shown that the distribution of top-of-the-atmosphere radiation 6ka altered the Northern Hemisphere seasonal cycle of the potential intensity of tropical cyclones in addition to slightly increasing the difference between middle tropospheric and boundary layer entropy, a parameter that has been related to the incubation period required for genesis. The Southern Hemisphere, which receives more solar radiation during its storm season today than it did 6ka, displays slightly more favorable thermodynamic properties during the MH than in the preindustrial era control. Surface temperatures over the ocean in both hemispheres respond to radiation anomalies more slowly than those in upper levels, altering the thermal stability. Volcanism produces a sharp but transient temperature response in the last-millennium simulation that strongly reduces potential intensity during the seasons immediately following a major eruption. Here, too, the differential vertical temperature response is key: temperatures in the lower and middle troposphere cool, while those near the tropopause rise. Aside from these deviations, there is no substantial variation in thermodynamic properties over the 1000-yr simulation.
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    Homogenization of the Global Radiosonde Temperature Dataset through Combined Comparison with Reanalysis Background Series and Neighboring Stations (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Description: This article describes progress in the homogenization of global radiosonde temperatures with updated versions of the Radiosonde Observation Correction Using Reanalyses (RAOBCORE) and Radiosonde Innovation Composite Homogenization (RICH) software packages. These are automated methods to homogenize the global radiosonde temperature dataset back to 1958. The break dates are determined from analysis of time series of differences between radiosonde temperatures (obs) and background forecasts (bg) of climate data assimilation systems used for the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the ongoing interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). RAOBCORE uses the obs−bg time series also for estimating the break sizes. RICH determines the break sizes either by comparing the observations of a tested time series with observations of neighboring radiosonde time series (RICH-obs) or by comparing their background departures (RICH-τ). Consequently RAOBCORE results may be influenced by inhomogeneities in the bg, whereas break size estimation with RICH-obs is independent of the bg. The adjustment quality of RICH-obs, on the other hand, may suffer from large interpolation errors at remote stations. RICH-τ is a compromise that substantially reduces interpolation errors at the cost of slight dependence on the bg. Adjustment uncertainty is estimated by comparing the three methods and also by varying parameters in RICH. The adjusted radiosonde time series are compared with recent temperature datasets based on (Advanced) Microwave Sounding Unit [(A)MSU] radiances. The overall spatiotemporal consistency of the homogenized dataset has improved compared to earlier versions, particularly in the presatellite era. Vertical profiles of temperature trends are more consistent with satellite data as well.
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    Characteristics of Observed Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes over North America (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-04-18
    Description: Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. The findings show that warm extremes at most locations are associated with positive 500-hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure anomalies just downstream with negative anomalies farther upstream. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. Circulation patterns aloft are more coherent across the continent than those at the surface where local surface features influence the occurrence of and patterns associated with extreme temperature days. Temperature extremes may be more sensitive to small shifts in circulation at locations where temperature is strongly influenced by mountains or large water bodies, or at the margins of important large-scale circulation patterns making such locations more susceptible to nonlinear responses to future climate change. The identification of these patterns and processes will allow for a thorough evaluation of the ability of climate models to realistically simulate extreme temperatures and their future trends.
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    Potential Predictability of the North Atlantic Heat Transport Based on an Oceanic State Estimate (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-12-15
    Description: This paper investigates the potential predictability of the meridional heat transport (MHT) in the North Atlantic on interannual time scales using hindcast ensembles based on an oceanic data assimilation product. The work analyzes the prognostic potential predictability (PPP), using the ocean synthesis of the German partner of the consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) as initial conditions and as boundary conditions. The PPP of the MHT varies with latitude: local maxima are apparent within the subpolar and the subtropical gyres, and a minimum is apparent at the boundary between the gyres. This PPP minimum can also be seen in the PPP structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), although it is considerably less pronounced. The decomposition of the MHT shows that within the subpolar gyre, the gyre component of the MHT influences the PPP structure of the MHT. Within the subtropical gyre, the overturning component of the MHT characterizes the PPP structure of the MHT. At the boundary between the subpolar and the subtropical gyres, the dynamics of the Ekman heat transport limit the predictable lead times of the MHT. At most latitudes, variations in the velocity field control the PPP structure of the MHT. The PPP structure of the AMOC can also be classified into gyre and gyre-boundary regimes, but the predictable lead times within the gyres are only similar to those of the overturning component of the MHT. Overall, the analysis provides a reference point for the latitude dependence of the MHT’s PPP structure and relates it to the latitude dependence of the AMOC’s PPP structure.
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    Cloud Properties over the North Slope of Alaska: Identifying the Prevailing Meteorological Regimes (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Description: Long time series of Arctic atmospheric measurements are assembled into meteorological categories that can serve as test cases for climate model evaluation. The meteorological categories are established by applying an objective k-means clustering algorithm to 11 years of standard surface-meteorological observations collected from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2010 at the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM). Four meteorological categories emerge. These meteorological categories constitute the first classification by meteorological regime of a long time series of Arctic meteorological conditions. The synoptic-scale patterns associated with each category, which include well-known synoptic features such as the Aleutian low and Beaufort Sea high, are used to explain the conditions at the NSA site. Cloud properties, which are not used as inputs to the k-means clustering, are found to differ significantly between the regimes and are also well explained by the synoptic-scale influences in each regime. Since the data available at the ARM NSA site include a wealth of cloud observations, this classification is well suited for model–observation comparison studies. Each category comprises an ensemble of test cases covering a representative range in variables describing atmospheric structure, moisture content, and cloud properties. This classification is offered as a complement to standard case-study evaluation of climate model parameterizations, in which models are compared against limited realizations of the Earth–atmosphere system (e.g., from detailed aircraft measurements).
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    Decadal–Interdecadal Climate Variability over Antarctica and Linkages to the Tropics: Analysis of Ice Core, Instrumental, and Tropical Proxy Data (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-11-01
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    The Shift of the Northern Node of the NAO and Cyclonic Rossby Wave Breaking (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-11-14
    Description: Several studies have found an eastward shift in the northern node of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the winters of 1978–97 compared to 1958–77. This study focuses on the connection between this shift of the northern node of the NAO and Rossby wave breaking (RWB) for the period 1958–97. It is found that the region of frequent cyclonic RWB underwent a northeastward shift at high latitudes in the latter 20-yr period. On a year-to-year basis, the cyclonic RWB region moves along a southwest–northeast (SW–NE)-directed axis. Both latitude and longitude of the winter maximum frequency of cyclonic RWB occurrence are positively correlated with the NAO index. To investigate the role of location of cyclonic RWB in influencing the NAO pattern, the geographical location of frequent cyclonic RWB is divided into two subdomains located along the SW–NE axis, to the south (SW domain) and east (NE domain) of Greenland. Two composites are assembled as one cyclonic RWB occurrence is detected in one of the two subdomains in 6-hourly instantaneous data. The forcing of the mean flow due to cyclonic RWB within individual subdomains is found to be locally restricted to where the breaking occurs, which is usually near the jet exit region and far removed from the jet core. The difference in the jet between the NE and SW composites resembles the difference in the mean jet between the 1978–97 and 1958–77 periods, which suggests that the change in cyclonic RWB occurrence in the two subdomains is associated with the wobbling of the jet on the decadal time scale.
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    CORRIGENDUM (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-02-08
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    Precise Calculations of the Existence of Multiple AMOC Equilibria in Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Equilibrium States (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-01
    Description: This study examines criteria for the existence of two stable states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) using a combination of theory and simulations from a numerical coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model. By formulating a simple collection of state parameters and their relationships, the authors reconstruct the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) OFF state behavior under a varying external salt-flux forcing. This part (Part I) of the paper examines the steady-state solution, which gives insight into the mechanisms that sustain the NADW OFF state in this coupled model; Part II deals with the transient behavior predicted by the evolution equation. The nonlinear behavior of the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) reverse cell is critical to the OFF state. Higher Atlantic salinity leads both to a reduced AAIW reverse cell and to a greater vertical salinity gradient in the South Atlantic. The former tends to reduce Atlantic salt export to the Southern Ocean, while the latter tends to increases it. These competing effects produce a nonlinear response of Atlantic salinity and salt export to salt forcing, and the existence of maxima in these quantities. Thus the authors obtain a natural and accurate analytical saddle-node condition for the maximal surface salt flux for which a NADW OFF state exists. By contrast, the bistability indicator proposed by De Vries and Weber does not generally work in this model. It is applicable only when the effect of the AAIW reverse cell on the Atlantic salt budget is weak.
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    Improved Madden–Julian Oscillations with Improved Physics: The Impact of Modified Convection Parameterizations (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-02-08
    Description: Two modifications are made to the deep convection parameterization in the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3): a dilute plume approximation and an implementation of the convective momentum transport (CMT). These changes lead to significant improvement in the simulated Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs). With the dilute plume approximation, temperature and convective heating perturbations become more positively correlated. Consequently, more available potential energy is generated and the intraseasonal variability (ISV) becomes stronger. The organization of ISV is also improved, which is manifest in coherent structures between different MJO phases and an improved simulation of the eastward propagation of MJOs with a reasonable eastward speed. The improved propagation can be attributed to a better simulation of the low-level zonal winds due to the inclusion of CMT. The authors posit that the large-scale zonal winds are akin to a selective conveyor belt that facilitates the organization of ISVs into highly coherent structures, which are important features of observed MJOs. The conclusions are supported by two supplementary experiments, which include the dilute plume approximation and CMT separately.
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    Changes in the Annual Range of Precipitation under Global Warming (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-01
    Description: The annual range of precipitation, which is the difference between maximum and minimum precipitation within a year, is examined in climate model simulations under global warming. For global averages, the annual range of precipitation tends to increase as the globe warms. On a regional basis, this enhancement is found over most areas of the world, except for the bands along 30°S and 30°N. The enhancement in the annual range of precipitation is mainly associated with larger upward trends of maximum precipitation and smaller upward trends or downward trends of minimum precipitation. Based on the moisture budget analysis, the dominant mechanism is vertical moisture advection, both on a global average and on a regional scale. The vertical moisture advection, moisture convergence induced by vertical motion, includes the thermodynamic component, which is associated with increased water vapor, and the dynamic component, which is associated with changes in circulation. Generally, the thermodynamic component enhances the annual range of precipitation, while the dynamic component tends to reduce it. Evaporation has a positive contribution to both maximum and minimum precipitation, but very little to the annual range of precipitation. Even though evaporation and horizontal moisture advection are small for a global average, they could be important on a regional basis.
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    Simulated Interannual Variations of Freshwater Content and Sea Surface Height in the Beaufort Sea* (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-02-08
    Description: The authors investigate the interannual variations of freshwater content (FWC) and sea surface height (SSH) in the Beaufort Sea, particularly their increases during 2004–09, using a coupled ice–ocean model (CIOM), adapted for the Arctic Ocean to simulate the interannual variations. The CIOM simulation exhibits a (relative) salinity minimum in the Beaufort Sea and a warm Atlantic water layer in the Arctic Ocean, which is similar to the Polar Hydrographic Climatology (PHC), and captures the observed FWC maximum in the central Beaufort Sea, and the observed variation and rapid decline of total ice concentration, over the last 30 years. The model simulations of SSH and FWC suggest a significant increase in the central Beaufort Sea during 2004–09. The simulated SSH increase is about 8 cm, while the FWC increase is about 2.5 m, with most of these increases occurring in the center of the Beaufort gyre. The authors show that these increases are due to an increased surface wind stress curl during 2004–09, which increased the FWC in the Beaufort Sea by about 0.63 m yr−1 through Ekman pumping. Moreover, the increased surface wind is related to the interannual variation of the Arctic polar vortex at 500 hPa. During 2004–09, the polar vortex had significant weakness, which enhanced the Beaufort Sea high by affecting the frequency of synoptic weather systems in the region. In addition to the impacts of the polar vortex, enhanced melting of sea ice also contributes to the FWC increase by about 0.3 m yr−1 during 2004–09.
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    Coupled Air–Mixed Layer Temperature Predictability for Climate Reconstruction (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-15
    Description: A central issue for understanding past climates involves the use of sparse time-integrated data to recover the physical properties of the coupled climate system. This issue is explored in a simple model of the midlatitude climate system that has attributes consistent with the observed climate. A quasigeostrophic (QG) model thermally coupled to a slab ocean is used to approximate midlatitude coupled variability, and a variant of the ensemble Kalman filter is used to assimilate time-averaged observations. The dependence of reconstruction skill on coupling and thermal inertia is explored. Results from this model are compared with those for an even simpler two-variable linear stochastic model of midlatitude air–sea interaction, for which the assimilation problem can be solved semianalytically. Results for the QG model show that skill decreases as the length of time over which observations are averaged increases in both the atmosphere and ocean when normalized against the time-averaged climatological variance. Skill in the ocean increases with slab depth, as expected from thermal inertia arguments, but skill in the atmosphere decreases. An explanation of this counterintuitive result derives from an analytical expression for the forecast error covariance in the two-variable stochastic model, which shows that the ratio of noise to total error increases with slab ocean depth. Essentially, noise becomes trapped in the atmosphere by a thermally stiffer ocean, which dominates the decrease in initial condition error owing to improved skill in the ocean. Increasing coupling strength in the QG model yields higher skill in the atmosphere and lower skill in the ocean, as the atmosphere accesses the longer ocean memory and the ocean accesses more atmospheric high-frequency “noise.” The two-variable stochastic model fails to capture this effect, showing decreasing skill in both the atmosphere and ocean for increased coupling strength, due to an increase in the ratio of noise to the forecast error variance. Implications for the potential for data assimilation to improve climate reconstructions are discussed.
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    Interannual Variation of the Late Fall Rainfall in Central Vietnam (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-01
    Description: The heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) event in central Vietnam usually occurs in October–November, the maximum rainfall season. This rainfall maximum undergoes a distinct interannual variation, opposite the interannual variation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies averaged over the NOAA Niño-3.4 area—ΔSST(Niño-3.4)—but coincident with the intensification (weakening) of the low-level easterlies at 15°N and westerlies at 5°N. The changes of low-level zonal winds reflect the strengthening (weakening) of the tropical cyclonic shear flow in tropical South/Southeast Asia in response to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies. Because the rainfall maximum in central Vietnam is primarily produced by the HRF cyclone, the interannual rainfall variation in this region should be attributed to the HRF cyclone activity—a new perspective of the climate change in precipitation. On average, one HRF cyclone occurs in each cold late fall. The population of the HRF cyclone may not be an important factor causing the interannual rainfall variation in central Vietnam. During the cold late fall, the rain-producing efficiency of the individual HRF cyclone is statistically almost twice those during warm and normal late falls and the most crucial factor leading to the interannual rainfall variation in central Vietnam. It is shown by further hydrological analysis that the increase (decrease) of the HRF cyclone’s rain-producing efficiency is determined by the large-scale environmental flow through the enhancement (weakening) of the regional convergence of water vapor flux.
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    Assessment of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 over the Maritime Continent Using Different Cumulus Parameterization and Land Surface Schemes (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-15
    Description: This paper describes an assessment of the Regional Climate Model, version 3 (RegCM3), coupled to two land surface schemes: the Biosphere–Atmosphere Transfer System, version 1e (BATS1e), and the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). The model’s performance in simulating precipitation over the Maritime Continent was evaluated against the 3-hourly Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 product. It is found that the model suffers from three major errors in reproducing the observed rainfall histogram: underestimation of the frequency of dry periods, overestimation of the frequency of low-intensity rainfall, and underestimation of the frequency of high-intensity rainfall. Additionally, the model does not accurately reproduce the observed timing of the diurnal rainfall peak, particularly over land. These four errors persisted regardless of the choice of lateral boundary conditions, convective parameterization scheme, or land surface scheme. The magnitude of the wet–dry bias in the simulated volumes of rainfall was, however, strongly dependent on the choice of the convection scheme and lateral boundary conditions. The Grell convection scheme with Fritsch–Chappell closure was the best performing of the convection schemes, having the smallest error magnitudes in both the rainfall histogram and average diurnal cycle, and also having good representation of the land surface energy and evapotranspiration components. The 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) was found to produce better simulations of observed rainfall when used as lateral boundary conditions than did the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. Discussion of the nature of the major model errors is provided, along with some suggestions for improvement.
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    Convective Activity over Africa and the Tropical Atlantic Inferred from 20 Years of Geostationary Meteosat Infrared Observations (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-01
    Description: A 20-yr (1986–2005) time series of Meteosat Visible and Infrared Imager (MVIRI) geostationary infrared observations was used to study deep convection over Africa and the tropical Atlantic. The 20-yr time period is covered by six consecutive satellites (Meteosat-2–7). To correct for possible systematic differences between instruments on the different satellite platforms, a time series of Meteosat infrared observations over cloud-free ocean surfaces was compared to reanalysis-based radiative transfer results. Based on the comparison of simulations with observations, a homogenization was performed for the MVIRI infrared channel. The homogenized 20-yr dataset was then subjected to a tracking analysis for deep convection over Africa and the tropical Atlantic for the boreal summer months of July–September. The mean state of convection as well as anomalies for high– and low–Sahel rainfall years were studied. Comparisons with the Global Precipitation Climatology Center’s (GPCC) rainfall estimates were performed for the Sahel region and interannual variability was evaluated comparing convection for the five driest and five wettest Sahel years. Results support earlier findings that precipitation in the Sahel region is strongly linked to the latitudinal position of the African Easterly Jet with deep convection being triggered more strongly if the jet is displaced northward. A relationship between the jet position and long-lived convective systems over the tropical Atlantic was found as well.
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    Influence of Twenty-First-Century Atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature Forcing on West African Climate (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-15
    Description: The persistence of extended drought events throughout West Africa during the twentieth century has motivated a substantial effort to understand the mechanisms driving African climate variability as well as the possible response to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. An ensemble of global climate model experiments is used to examine the relative roles of future direct atmospheric radiative forcing and SST forcing in shaping potential future changes in boreal summer precipitation over West Africa. The authors find that projected increases in precipitation throughout the western Sahel result primarily from direct atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in atmospheric forcing generate a slight northward displacement and weakening of the African easterly jet (AEJ), a strengthening of westward monsoon flow onto West Africa, and an intensification of the tropical easterly jet (TEJ). Alternatively, the projected decreases in precipitation over much of the Guinea Coast region are caused by SST changes induced by the atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in SSTs generate a weakening of the monsoon westerlies and the TEJ as well as a decrease in low-level convergence and resultant rising air throughout the midlevels of the troposphere. Experiments suggest a potential shift in the regional moisture balance of West Africa should global radiative forcing continue to increase, highlighting the importance of climate system feedbacks in shaping the response of regional-scale climate to global-scale changes in radiative forcing.
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    Probability Distribution Characteristics for Surface Air–Sea Turbulent Heat Fluxes over the Global Ocean (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-01
    Description: To analyze the probability density distributions of surface turbulent heat fluxes, the authors apply the two-parametric modified Fisher–Tippett (MFT) distribution to the sensible and latent turbulent heat fluxes recomputed from 6-hourly NCEP–NCAR reanalysis state variables for the period from 1948 to 2008. They derived the mean climatology and seasonal cycle of the location and scale parameters of the MFT distribution. Analysis of the parameters of probability distributions identified the areas where similar surface turbulent fluxes are determined by the very different shape of probability density functions. Estimated extreme turbulent heat fluxes amount to 1500–2000 W m−2 (for the 99th percentile) and can exceed 2000 W m−2 for higher percentiles in the subpolar latitudes and western boundary current regions. Analysis of linear trends and interannual variability in the mean and extreme fluxes shows that the strongest trends in extreme fluxes (more than 15 W m−2 decade−1) in the western boundary current regions are associated with the changes in the shape of distribution. In many regions changes in extreme fluxes may be different from those for the mean fluxes at interannual and decadal time scales. The correlation between interannual variability of the mean and extreme fluxes is relatively low in the tropics, the Southern Ocean, and the Kuroshio Extension region. Analysis of probability distributions in turbulent fluxes has also been used in assessing the impact of sampling errors in the Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS)-based surface flux climatologies, allowed for the estimation of the impact of sampling in extreme fluxes. Although sampling does not have a visible systematic effect on mean fluxes, sampling uncertainties result in the underestimation of extreme flux values exceeding 100 W m−2 in poorly sampled regions.
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    A Mechanisms-Based Approach to Detecting Recent Anthropogenic Hydroclimate Change* (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-01
    Description: Both naturally occurring La Niña events and model-projected anthropogenic-driven global warming are associated with widespread drying in the subtropics to midlatitudes. Models suggest anthropogenic drying should already be underway but climate variability on interannual to multidecadal time scales can easily obscure any emerging trend, making it hard to assess the validity of the simulated forced change. Here, the authors address this problem by using model simulations and the twentieth-century reanalysis to distinguish between natural variability of, and radiatively forced change in, hydroclimate on the basis of the mechanisms of variations in the three-dimensional moisture budget that drive variations in precipitation minus evaporation (P − E). Natural variability of P − E is dominated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and is “dynamics dominated” in that the associated global P − E anomalies are primarily driven by changes in circulation. This is quite well reproduced in the multimodel mean of 15 models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3). In contrast, radiatively forced P − E change is “thermodynamics mediated” in that the rise in specific humidity leads to intensified patterns of moisture transport and P − E. But, as for ENSO, the poleward shift of the storm tracks and mean meridional circulation cells also contribute to changes in P − E. However, La Niña and radiatively forced changes in the zonal mean flow are distinct in the tropics. These distinctions are applied to the post-1979 record of P − E in the twentieth-century reanalysis. ENSO-related variations strongly influence the observed P − E trend since 1979, but removal of this influence leaves an emerging pattern of P − E change consistent with the predictions of the IPCC AR4/CMIP3 models over this period together with, to some extent, consistent contributions from dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms and consistent changes in the zonal mean circulation. The forced trends are currently weak compared to those caused by internal variability.
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    Poleward Atmospheric Energy Transports and Their Variability as Evaluated from ECMWF Reanalysis Data (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-15
    Description: The vertically integrated global energy budget is evaluated with a direct and an indirect method (both corrected for mass inconsistencies of the forecast model), mainly using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) data. A new estimate for the net poleward total energy transport is given. Comparison to satellite-derived radiation data proves that ERA-Interim is better suited for investigation of interannual variations of the global energy budget than available satellite data since these either cover a relatively short period of time or are too inhomogeneous in time. While much improved compared to the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), regionally averaged energy budgets of ERA-Interim show that strong anomalies of forecasted vertical fluxes tend to be partly compensated by unrealistically large forecasted energy storage rates. Discrepancies between observed and forecasted monthly mean tendencies can be taken as rough measure for the uncertainties involved in the ERA-Interim energy budget. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is shown to have large impact on regional energy budgets, but strong compensation occurs between the western and eastern Pacific, leading to only small net variations of the total poleward energy transports (similar magnitude as the uncertainty of the computations). However, Hovmöller longitude–time plots of tropical energy exports show relatively strong slowly eastward-moving poleward transport anomalies in connection with ENSO. Verification of these findings using independent estimates still needs to be done.
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    Modeling the Summertime Climate of Southwest Asia: The Role of Land Surface Processes in Shaping the Climate of Semiarid Regions (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-15
    Description: Presented is a study on the role of land surface processes in determining the summertime climate over the semiarid region of southwest Asia. In this region, a warm surface air temperature bias of 3.5°C is simulated in the summer by using the standard configuration of Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). Biases are also simulated in surface albedo (underestimation), shortwave incident radiation (overestimation), and vapor pressure (underestimation). Based on satellite measurements documented in NASA’s surface radiation budget (SRB) dataset, a correction in surface albedo by 4% is introduced in RegCM3 to match the observed SRB data. Increasing albedo values results in a nearly 1°C cooling over the region. In addition, by incorporating RegCM3’s dust module and including subgrid variability for surface wind, shortwave incident radiation bias originally of about 45 W m−2 is reduced by 30 W m−2. As a result, the reduction of shortwave incident radiation cools the surface by 0.6°C. Finally, including a representation for the irrigation and marshlands of Mesopotamia produces surface relative humidity values closer to observations, thus eliminating a nearly 5-mb vapor pressure dry bias over some of the region. Consequently, the representation of irrigation and marshlands results in cooling of nearly 1°C in areas downwind of the actual land-cover change. Along with identified biases in observational datasets, these combined processes explain the 3.5°C warm bias in RegCM3 simulations. Therefore, it is found that accurate representations of surface albedo, dust emissions, and irrigation are important in correctly modeling summertime climates of semiarid regions.
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    Impact of a Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Cover on Ocean and Atmospheric Properties (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-01
    Description: The Arctic sea ice cover declined over the last few decades and reached a record minimum in 2007, with a slight recovery thereafter. Inspired by this the authors investigate the response of atmospheric and oceanic properties to a 1-yr period of reduced sea ice cover. Two ensembles of equilibrium and transient simulations are produced with the Community Climate System Model. A sea ice change is induced through an albedo change of 1 yr. The sea ice area and thickness recover in both ensembles after 3 and 5 yr, respectively. The sea ice anomaly leads to changes in ocean temperature and salinity to a depth of about 200 m in the Arctic Basin. Further, the salinity and temperature changes in the surface layer trigger a “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the North Atlantic that takes roughly 8 yr to travel across the North Atlantic back to high latitudes. In the atmosphere the changes induced by the sea ice anomaly do not last as long as in the ocean. The response in the transient and equilibrium simulations, while similar overall, differs in specific regional and temporal details. The surface air temperature increases over the Arctic Basin and the anomaly extends through the whole atmospheric column, changing the geopotential height fields and thus the storm tracks. The patterns of warming and thus the position of the geopotential height changes vary in the two ensembles. While the equilibrium simulation shifts the storm tracks to the south over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the transient simulation shifts the storm tracks south over the western North Atlantic and North America. The authors propose that the overall reduction in sea ice cover is important for producing ocean anomalies; however, for atmospheric anomalies the regional location of the sea ice anomalies is more important. While observed trends in Arctic sea ice are large and exceed those simulated by comprehensive climate models, there is little evidence based on this particular model that the seasonal loss of sea ice (e.g., as occurred in 2007) would constitute a threshold after which the Arctic would exhibit nonlinear, irreversible, or strongly accelerated sea ice loss. Caution should be exerted when extrapolating short-term trends to future sea ice behavior.
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    Analysis of Local Air–Sea Interaction in East Asia Using a Regional Air–Sea Coupled Model (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-15
    Description: A regional air–sea coupled climate model based on the third regional climate model (RegCM3) and the regional oceanic model [the Princeton Ocean Model (POM)] is used to analyze the local air–sea interaction over East Asia in this study. The results indicate that the simulated sea surface temperature (SST) of the coupled model RegCM3–POM is reasonably accurate, and that the spatial pattern and temporal variation are consistent with that of the Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (GISST). The correlation between the SST and the atmospheric variables shows that the uncoupled model RegCM3 forced by the given SST cannot reproduce the real-time and SST lag correlation between SST and precipitation, and between SST and surface wind speed, whereas the relationship in the coupled model RegCM3–POM is reasonably accurate. RegCM3–POM reflects the air–sea interaction in the South China Sea and western Pacific Ocean, where the SST lead correlation is the inverse of the SST lag correlation between SST and precipitation, and strong winds bring warm water to the midlatitudes, so the correlation between wind speed and SST is negative in low latitudes and positive in the Kuroshio area. The uncoupled model fails to reproduce the effect of the atmosphere on the ocean. The further study on air–sea interaction in the South China Sea indicates that the earlier warm seawater corresponds to strong sensible heat flux, evaporation, precipitation, and weak net solar radiation, and the early strong sensible heat flux, evaporation, wind at the 10-m level, and weak net solar radiation cause the cold SST.
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    Toward a Global Climatology of Severe Hailstorms as Estimated by Satellite Passive Microwave Imagers (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-15
    Description: An 8-yr climatology of storms producing large hail is estimated from satellite measurements using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). This allows a unique, consistent comparison between regions that cannot be consistently compared using ground-based records because of varying data collection standards. Severe hailstorms are indicated most often in a broad region of northern Argentina and southern Paraguay and a smaller region in Bangladesh and eastern India. Numerous hailstorms are also estimated in the central and southeastern United States, northern Pakistan and northwestern India, central and western Africa, and southeastern Africa (and adjacent waters). Fewer hailstorms are estimated for other regions over land and scattered across subtropical oceans. Very few are estimated in the deep tropics other than in Africa. Most continental regions show seasonality with hailstorms peaking in late spring or summer. The South Asian monsoon alters the hailstorm climatology around the Indian subcontinent. About 75% of the hailstorms on the eastern side (around Bangladesh) occur from April through June, generally before monsoon onset. Activity shifts northwest to northern India in late June and July. An arc along the foothills in northern Pakistan becomes particularly active from mid-June through mid-August. The AMSR-E measurements are limited to early afternoon and late night. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) measurements are used to investigate diurnal variability in the tropics and subtropics. All of the prominent regions have hailstorm peaks in late afternoon and early evening. The United States and central Africa have the fewest overnight and early morning storms, while subtropical South America and Bangladesh have the most.
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    Long-Term Wind Speed Trends over Australia (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-01
    Description: Accurate estimates of long-term linear trends of wind speed provide a useful indicator for circulation changes in the atmosphere and are invaluable for the planning and financing of sectors such as wind energy. Here a large number of wind observations over Australia and reanalysis products are analyzed to compute such trends. After a thorough quality control of the observations, it is found that the wind speed trends for 1975–2006 and 1989–2006 over Australia are sensitive to the height of the station: they are largely negative for the 2-m data but are predominantly positive for the 10-m data. The mean relative trend at 2 m is −0.10 ± 0.03% yr−1 (−0.36 ± 0.04% yr−1) for the 1975–2006 (1989–2006) period, whereas at 10 m it is 0.90 ± 0.03% yr−1 (0.69 ± 0.04% yr−1) for the 1975–2006 (1989–2006) period. Also, at 10 m light winds tend to increase more rapidly than the mean winds, whereas strong winds increase less rapidly than the mean winds; at 2 m the trends in both light and strong winds vary in line with the mean winds. It was found that a qualitative link could be established between the observed features in the linear trends and some atmospheric circulation indicators (mean sea level pressure, wind speed at 850 hPa, and geopotential at 850 hPa), particularly for the 10-m observations. Further, the magnitude of the trend is also sensitive to the period selected, being closer to zero when a very long period, 1948–2006, is considered. As a consequence, changes in the atmospheric circulation on climatic time scales appear unlikely.
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    A Method for Estimating Potential Seasonal Predictability: Analysis of Covariance (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-08-01
    Description: This paper proposes a new method for assessing potential predictability of seasonal means using a single realization of daily time series. Potential predictability is defined as variability in seasonal means that exceeds the variability due to weather stochastic processes. The proposed method is based on analysis of covariance and accounts for autocorrelation in daily time series and uncertainties in statistical parameters. The method is applied to reanalyzed daily surface air temperature and detects significant potential predictability over the oceans and equatorial land areas. Potential predictability is weaker and varies significantly with season over extratropical land areas, with the fraction of potentially predictable variance rarely exceeding 60%. The proposed method also produces an estimate of the potentially predictable component of seasonal means, which can be used to investigate the relation between potential predictability and possible boundary forcings. The results are generally consistent with previous studies, although a more detailed study will be made in a future paper.
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    Projection of Global Wave Climate Change toward the End of the Twenty-First Century (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-11-01
    Description: Wind-generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importance for both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastal erosion, protection, or safety of navigation, and for their scientific relevance in modifying fluxes at the air–sea interface. So far, long-term changes in ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from a regional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging only recently. Here a global wave climate study is presented, in which a global wave model [Wave Ocean Model (WAM)] is driven by atmospheric forcing from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for present-day and potential future climate conditions represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. It is found that changes in mean and extreme wave climate toward the end of the twenty-first century are small to moderate, with the largest signals being a poleward shift in the annual mean and extreme significant wave heights in the midlatitudes of both hemispheres, more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere and most likely associated with a corresponding shift in midlatitude storm tracks. These changes are broadly consistent with results from the few studies available so far. The projected changes in the mean wave periods, associated with the changes in the wave climate in the middle to high latitudes, are also shown, revealing a moderate increase in the equatorial eastern side of the ocean basins. This study presents a step forward toward a larger ensemble of global wave climate projections required to better assess robustness and uncertainty of potential future wave climate change.
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    The Tropical Subseasonal Variability Simulated in the NASA GISS General Circulation Model (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-07-01
    Description: The tropical subseasonal variability simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model, Model E2, is examined. Several versions of Model E2 were developed with changes to the convective parameterization in order to improve the simulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). When the convective scheme is modified to have a greater fractional entrainment rate, Model E2 is able to simulate MJO-like disturbances with proper spatial and temporal scales. Increasing the rate of rain reevaporation has additional positive impacts on the simulated MJO. The improvement in MJO simulation comes at the cost of increased biases in the mean state, consistent in structure and amplitude with those found in other GCMs when tuned to have a stronger MJO. By reinitializing a relatively poor-MJO version with restart files from a relatively better-MJO version, a series of 30-day integrations is constructed to examine the impacts of the parameterization changes on the organization of tropical convection. The poor-MJO version with smaller entrainment rate has a tendency to allow convection to be activated over a broader area and to reduce the contrast between dry and wet regimes so that tropical convection becomes less organized. Besides the MJO, the number of tropical-cyclone-like vortices simulated by the model is also affected by changes in the convection scheme. The model simulates a smaller number of such storms globally with a larger entrainment rate, while the number increases significantly with a greater rain reevaporation rate.
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    Quantifying Uncertainty for Climate Change and Long-Range Forecasting Scenarios with Model Errors. Part I: Gaussian Models (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-07-01
    Description: Information theory provides a concise systematic framework for measuring climate consistency and sensitivity for imperfect models. A suite of increasingly complex physically relevant linear Gaussian models with time periodic features mimicking the seasonal cycle is utilized to elucidate central issues that arise in contemporary climate science. These include the role of model error, the memory of initial conditions, and effects of coarse graining in producing short-, medium-, and long-range forecasts. In particular, this study demonstrates how relative entropy can be used to improve climate consistency of an overdamped imperfect model by inflating stochastic forcing. Moreover, the authors show that, in the considered models, by improving climate consistency, this simultaneously increases the predictive skill of an imperfect model in response to external perturbation, a property of crucial importance in the context of climate change. The three models range in complexity from a scalar time periodic model mimicking seasonal fluctuations in a mean jet to a spatially extended system of turbulent Rossby waves to, finally, the behavior of a turbulent tracer with a mean gradient with the background turbulent field velocity generated by the first two models. This last model mimics the global and regional behavior of turbulent passive tracers under various climate change scenarios. This detailed study provides important guidelines for extending these strategies to more complicated and non-Gaussian physical systems.
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    Role of the Boundary Layer Moisture Asymmetry in Causing the Eastward Propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation* (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-07-15
    Description: The moisture budget associated with the eastward-propagating Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was diagnosed using 1979–2001 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. A marked zonal asymmetry of the moisture relative to the MJO convection appears in the planetary boundary layer (PBL, below 700 hPa), creating a potentially more unstable stratification to the east of the MJO convection and favoring the eastward propagation of MJO. The PBL-integrated moisture budget diagnosis indicates that the vertical advection of moisture dominates the low-level moistening ahead of the convection. A further diagnosis indicates that the leading term in the vertical moisture advection is the advection of the background moisture by the MJO ascending flow associated with PBL convergence. The cause of the zonally asymmetric PBL convergence is further examined. It is found that heating-induced free-atmospheric wave dynamics account for 75%–90% of the total PBL convergence, while the warm SST anomaly induced by air–sea interaction contributes 10%–25% of the total PBL convergence. The horizontal moisture advection also plays a role in contributing to the PBL moistening ahead of the MJO convection. The leading term in the moisture advection is the advection across the background moisture gradient by the MJO flow. In the western Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western Pacific, the meridional moisture advection by the MJO northerly flow dominates, while in the eastern Indian Ocean the zonal moisture advection is greater. The contribution of the moisture advection by synoptic eddies is in general small; it has a negative effect over the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific and becomes positive in the Maritime Continent region.
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    The Effect of Mesoscale Mountain over the East Indochina Peninsula on Downstream Summer Rainfall over East Asia (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-07-01
    Description: The mesoscale mountain over the east Indochina Peninsula, named Annam Cordillera, plays a key role in shaping the South China Sea (SCS) summer climate in both the atmosphere and the ocean. However, its effect is not limited to the SCS. Ensemble simulations using a high-resolution regional atmospheric model with or without the mountain reveals that the Annam Cordillera has a significant impact on regional climate as far as 3000 km over south and east China, and western Northwest Pacific (WNP). By blocking/lifting the warm and moist air from the Bay of Bengal, the Annam Cordillera forces upward motion and precipitation on the windward side and subsidence on the leeward side, and a low-level southwesterly jet to the southeast tip of the Indochina Peninsula over the SCS. The latter gives rise to coastal upwelling and cold sea surface temperature (SST) filaments in the western SCS, reducing surface sensible and latent heat fluxes and thus suppressing convection over the SCS. Heating associated with the orographic rainfall forces a low-level anomalous easterly over the SCS and an anomalous cyclone and anticyclone in the midlower troposphere to the south and north, respectively. The anomalous circulation modifies the low-level moisture transport, reducing rainfall over the SCS and to the east of Taiwan Island over the WNP, while increasing rainfall as much as 15%–30% in a southwest–northeast-oriented belt extending from south China to the East China Sea. The cold SST filaments in the western SCS enhance the orographically induced circulation; however, its effect accounts for less than 50% of the direct effect of the orographic lifting/blocking.
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    Impact of Tropical SST on Stratospheric Planetary Waves in the Southern Hemisphere (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-07-15
    Description: The impact of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) on stratospheric planetary waves in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is investigated in austral spring using observed SST and reanalysis data for the past three decades. Maximum covariance analysis indicates that the tropical SST and the SH stratospheric planetary wave activity are primarily coupled through two modes. The leading two modes show the La Niña–like and the central-Pacific El Niño–like SST anomalies in their positive polarities, respectively, which each are related to enhanced stratospheric planetary wave activity. These two modes also introduce phase shifts to the stratospheric stationary planetary waves: a westward shift is seen for La Niña and an eastward shift for warm SST anomalies is seen in the central Pacific. The Eliassen–Palm fluxes associated with the two modes indicate that the anomalous stratospheric wave activity originates in the troposphere and propagates upward over the mid–high latitudes, so that the linkages between tropical SST and extratropical tropospheric circulation appear to play a key role. Furthermore, the observed circulation anomaly patterns for the two modes change rapidly from spring to summer, consistent with a sharp seasonal transition in the SH basic state. Similar SST and circulation anomaly patterns associated with the two modes are simulated in chemistry–climate models.
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    Tropical Atlantic Biases in CCSM4 (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-06-01
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    Observed Antarctic Interannual Climate Variability and Tropical Linkages (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-06-15
    Description: This study reviews the mechanisms associated with Antarctic–tropical climate linkages and presents new analyses of the seasonality and spatial patterns of tropical climate signals in the Antarctic for the late 1950s to the present. Tropical climate signals are primarily communicated to the Antarctic via the Pacific–South America (PSA) pattern and the southern annular mode (SAM). The impacts of these circulation patterns and their tropical linkages are evident in regressions of seasonally stratified Antarctic station temperature data and annually resolved ice core records on global fields of sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and precipitation. Temperature and ice core anomalies in the Antarctic Peninsula region and adjoining areas of West Antarctica are significantly impacted by the PSA, interpreted as a Rossby wave train driven by anomalous tropical deep convection during ENSO events. This pattern is most evident in the austral spring, consistent with recent studies, suggesting that atmospheric conditions for Rossby wave propagation are most favorable during this season. During austral summer at the peak of the ENSO cycle, temperature anomalies at East Antarctic coastal stations exhibit significant correlations with tropical Pacific anomalies. This linkage reflects the influence of anomalous tropical heating on the position and strength of the subtropical jets and is consistent with changes in eddy momentum fluxes that alter the mean meridional circulation associated with the SAM. Of the ice cores that exhibit tropical linkages, most tend to be associated with the PSA teleconnection. The implications of the study’s findings for understanding Antarctic climate variability and climate change from seasonal to decadal time scales are also discussed.
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    A Numerical Investigation of Wet and Dry Onset Modes in the North American Monsoon Core Region. Part I: A Regional Mechanism for Interannual Variability (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-06-01
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    Impact of Antarctic Ozone Depletion and Recovery on Southern Hemisphere Precipitation, Evaporation, and Extreme Changes (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-01
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    European Hot Summers Associated with a Reduction of Cloudiness (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-14
    Description: A pronounced summer warming is observed in Europe since the 1980s that has been accompanied by an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. Water deficit that strongly reduces surface latent cooling is a widely accepted explanation for the causes of hot summers. The authors show that the variance of European summer temperature is partly explained by changes in summer cloudiness. Using observation-based products of climate variables, satellite-derived cloud cover, and radiation products, the authors show that, during the 1984–2007 period, Europe has become less cloudy (except northeastern Europe) and the regions east of Europe have become cloudier in summer daytime. In response, the summer temperatures increased in the areas of total cloud cover decrease and stalled or declined in the areas of cloud cover increase. Trends in the surface shortwave radiation are generally positive (negative) in the regions with summer warming (cooling or stalled warming), whereas the signs of trends in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflected shortwave radiation are reversed. The authors’ results suggest that total cloud cover is either the important local factor influencing the summer temperature changes in Europe or a major indicator of these changes.
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    Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by the New High-Resolution MRI-AGCM* (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-01
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    Can Oceanic Freshwater Flux Amplify Global Warming? (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-01
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    Twentieth-Century Surface Temperature Trends in the Western Ross Sea, Antarctica: Evidence from a High-Resolution Ice Core (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-14
    Description: A 125-yr ice core record of climate from the Whitehall Glacier ice divide provides exceptionally high-resolution stable isotope data from the northwest margin of the Ross Sea, Antarctica. This is the only proxy data available to extend the instrumental record of temperature in this region, where little is known about climate variability over the past two centuries. Using ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data, this study develops a precipitation-weighted δ18O-temperature transfer function of 0.62‰ °C−1, which is comparable to other proximal ice cores, such as Taylor, Talos, and Law Domes. Reconstructed mean annual temperatures show no significant change between 1882 and 2006. However, a decrease in cold season [April–September (AMJJAS)] temperatures of −1.59° ± 0.84°C decade−1 (at 90% confidence) is observed since 1979. This cooling trend is in contrast to a surface temperature record from Ross Island (Scott Base) where significant spring warming is observed. It is also coincident with a positive trend in the southern annular mode, which is linked to stronger southerly winds and increased sea ice extent and duration in the western Ross Sea.
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    Atmospheric Entropy. Part I: Climate Dissipation Structure (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-01
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    Effects of the PDO Phase on the Tropical Belt Width (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-01
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    On the North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content Change between 1955–70 and 1980–95 (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-14
    Description: The upper-ocean heat content of the North Atlantic has undergone significant changes over the last 50 years but the underlying physical mechanisms are not yet well understood. In the present study, the authors examine the North Atlantic ocean heat content change in the upper 700 m between the 1955–70 and 1980–95 periods. Consistent with previous studies, the large-scale pattern consists of warming of the tropics and subtropics and cooling of the subpolar ocean. However, this study finds that the most significant heat content change in the North Atlantic during these two time periods is the warming of the Gulf Stream region. Numerical experiments strongly suggest that this warming in the Gulf Stream region is largely driven by changes of the large-scale wind forcing. Furthermore, the increased ocean heat content in the Gulf Stream region appears to feedback on to the atmosphere, resulting in warmer surface air temperature and enhanced precipitation there.
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    Interdecadal Change of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-01
    Description: A significant advance in the onset dates of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) is detected around 1993/94: the epochal mean onset date is 30 May for 1979–93 and 14 May for 1994–2008. The relatively late onset during the first epoch is primarily determined by the northward seasonal march of the intertropical convergence zone, whereas the advanced onset during the second epoch is affected by the enhanced activity of northwestward-moving tropical disturbances from the equatorial western Pacific. During 1994–2008, the intraseasonal variability (ISV) over the western Pacific was enhanced during the period from mid-April to mid-May; further, the number of tropical cyclones (TCs), which passed through the South China Sea (SCS) and Philippine Sea during the same period, is about doubled compared with those occurring during 1979–93. This enhanced ISV and TC activity over the SCS and Philippine Sea are attributed to a significant increase in SST over the equatorial western Pacific from the 1980s to 2000s. Therefore, the advanced SCSSM onset is rooted in the decadal change of the SST over the equatorial western Pacific.
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    Factors for the Simulation of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-14
    Description: This study investigates the major factors for the realistic simulation of convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) models. CFS simulations employing relaxed Arakawa–Schubert (RAS; hereafter CTRL) and simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) cumulus parameterization schemes show that the former generates the observed Kelvin wave signature more realistically than the latter does. For example, the space–time spectral signal, eastward propagation, and tilted (and second baroclinic mode) vertical structures in convection, temperature, moisture, and circulation anomalies associated with CCKWs in CTRL are more comparable to observations than in the SAS simulation. CTRL and observations demonstrate the characteristic evolution and vertical heating profile associated with CCKWs similar to those seen in mesoscale convective systems in the tropics: shallow convection, followed by deep convection and then stratiform cloudiness, and resulting in a top-heavy diabatic heating profile. Five additional experiments demonstrate that the effects of convective downdrafts, subgrid-scale convective rain evaporation, and large-scale rain evaporation on CCKWs are assessed to be insignificant in CTRL, possibly due to a more humid environment than observation. However, the Kelvin wave signals are reduced by ~40% when shallow convection is disabled. More importantly, the removal of convective detrainment at the cloud top results in the greatest reduction in Kelvin wave activity (by more than 70%). Therefore, the preconditioning of the atmosphere by shallow convection and detrainment of water vapor and condensate from convective updrafts to the environment and subsequent stratiform heating (grid-scale condensational heating)/precipitation processes are the two most crucial factors for the successful simulation of CCKWs.
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    Comments on “The Relationship between Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Contrast and Radiative Forcing” (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-01
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    Potential Predictability of Interannual Variability in the Kuroshio Extension Jet Speed in an Eddy-Resolving OGCM (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-14
    Description: Variability in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) jet speed has been considered to impact the upper-ocean ecosystem. This study investigates potential predictability of interannual variability in the KE jet speed that could arise from the propagation time of wind-driven Rossby waves as suggested by previous studies, through prediction experiments with an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (OGCM) under the perfect-model assumption. Despite the small number of experiments available because of limited computational resources, the prediction experiments with no anomalous atmospheric forcing suggest some predictability for not only broad-scale sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs) but also the frontal-scale KE jet speed. The predictability is confirmed in a 60-yr hindcast OGCM integration as a significantly high correlation (r = 0.68) of 13-month running mean time series of the anomalous KE jet speed with SSHAs that appear in the central North Pacific Ocean 3 yr earlier. Although with fewer degrees of freedom, the same lag relationship can be found between satellite-measured SSHAs and the geostrophically derived KE jet speed.
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    Role of the Indo-Pacific Interbasin Coupling in Predicting Asymmetric ENSO Transition and Duration (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-05-01
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    The Role of Barents Sea Ice in the Wintertime Cyclone Track and Emergence of a Warm-Arctic Cold-Siberian Anomaly (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-03-28
    Description: Sea ice variability over the Barents Sea with its resultant atmospheric response has been considered one of the triggers of unexpected downstream climate change. For example, East Asia has experienced several major cold events while the underlying temperature over the Arctic has risen steadily. To understand the influence of sea ice in the Barents Sea on atmospheric circulation during winter from a synoptic perspective, this study evaluated the downstream response in cyclone activities with respect to the underlying sea ice variability. The composite analysis, including all cyclone events over the Nordic seas, revealed that an anticyclonic anomaly prevailed along the Siberian coast during light ice years over the Barents Sea. This likely caused anomalous warm advection over the Barents Sea and cold advection over eastern Siberia. The difference in cyclone paths between heavy and light ice years was expressed as a warm-Arctic cold-Siberian (WACS) anomaly. The lower baroclinicity over the Barents Sea during the light ice years, which resulted from a weak gradient in sea surface temperature, prevented cyclones from traveling eastward. This could lead to fewer cyclones and hence to an anticyclonic anomaly over the Siberian coast.
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    Simulated Climate and Climate Change in the GFDL CM2.5 High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-04-10
    Description: The authors present results for simulated climate and climate change from a newly developed high-resolution global climate model [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.5 (GFDL CM2.5)]. The GFDL CM2.5 has an atmospheric resolution of approximately 50 km in the horizontal, with 32 vertical levels. The horizontal resolution in the ocean ranges from 28 km in the tropics to 8 km at high latitudes, with 50 vertical levels. This resolution allows the explicit simulation of some mesoscale eddies in the ocean, particularly at lower latitudes. Analyses are presented based on the output of a 280-yr control simulation; also presented are results based on a 140-yr simulation in which atmospheric CO2 increases at 1% yr−1 until doubling after 70 yr. Results are compared to GFDL CM2.1, which has somewhat similar physics but a coarser resolution. The simulated climate in CM2.5 shows marked improvement over many regions, especially the tropics, including a reduction in the double ITCZ and an improved simulation of ENSO. Regional precipitation features are much improved. The Indian monsoon and Amazonian rainfall are also substantially more realistic in CM2.5. The response of CM2.5 to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 has many features in common with CM2.1, with some notable differences. For example, rainfall changes over the Mediterranean appear to be tightly linked to topography in CM2.5, in contrast to CM2.1 where the response is more spatially homogeneous. In addition, in CM2.5 the near-surface ocean warms substantially in the high latitudes of the Southern Ocean, in contrast to simulations using CM2.1.
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    Marine Downscaling of a Future Climate Scenario for Australian Boundary Currents (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-04-10
    Description: Ocean boundary currents are poorly represented in existing coupled climate models, partly because of their insufficient resolution to resolve narrow jets. Therefore, there is limited confidence in the simulated response of boundary currents to climate change by climate models. To address this issue, the eddy-resolving Ocean Forecasting Australia Model (OFAM) was used, forced with bias-corrected output in the 2060s under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B from the CSIRO Mark version 3.5 (Mk3.5) climate model, to provide downscaled regional ocean projections. CSIRO Mk3.5 captures a number of robust changes that are common to most climate models that are consistent with observed changes, including the weakening of the equatorial Pacific zonal wind stress and the strengthening of the wind stress curl in the Southern Pacific, important for driving the boundary currents around Australia. The 1990s climate is downscaled using air–sea fluxes from the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The current speed, seasonality, and volume transports of the Australian boundary currents show much greater fidelity to the observations in the downscaled model. Between the 1990s and the 2060s, the downscaling with the OFAM simulates a 15% reduction in the Leeuwin Current (LC) transport, a 20% decrease in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport, a 12% increase in the East Australian Current (EAC) core transport, and a 35% increase in the EAC extension. The projected changes by the downscaling model are consistent with observed trends over the past several decades and with changes in wind-driven circulation derived from Sverdrup dynamics. Although the direction of change projected from downscaling is usually in agreement with CSIRO Mk3.5, there are important regional details and differences that will impact the response of ecosystems to climate change.
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    Construction of Stratospheric Temperature Data Records from Stratospheric Sounding Units (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-04-10
    Description: In recognizing the importance of Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) onboard historical NOAA polar-orbiting satellites in assessment of long-term stratospheric temperature changes and limitations in previous available SSU datasets, this study constructs a fully documented, publicly accessible, and well-merged SSU time series for climate change investigations. Focusing on methodologies, this study describes the details of data processing and bias corrections in the SSU observations for generating consistent stratospheric temperature data records, including 1) removal of the instrument gas leak effect in its CO2 cell; 2) correction of the atmospheric CO2 increase effect; 3) adjustment for different observation viewing angles; 4) removal of diurnal sampling biases due to satellite orbital drift; and 5) statistical merging of SSU observations from different satellites. After reprocessing, the stratospheric temperature records are composed of nadirlike, gridded brightness temperatures that correspond to identical weighting functions and a fixed local observation time. The 27-yr reprocessed SSU data record comprises global monthly and pentad layer temperatures, with grid resolution of 2.5° latitude by 2.5° longitude, of the midstratosphere (TMS), upper stratosphere (TUS), and top stratosphere (TTS), which correspond to the three SSU channel observations. For 1979–2006, the global mean trends for TMS, TUS, and TTS, are respectively −1.236 ± 0.131, −0.926 ± 0.139, and −1.006 ± 0.194 K decade−1. Spatial trend pattern analyses indicated that this cooling occurred globally with larger cooling over the tropical stratosphere.
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    Relationships between the Raindrop Size Distribution and Properties of the Environment and Clouds Inferred from TRMM (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-04-10
    Description: Raindrop size distribution (DSD) retrievals from two years of data gathered by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and processed with a combined radar–radiometer algorithm over the oceans equatorward of 35° are examined for relationships with variables describing properties of the vertical precipitation profile, mesoscale organization, and background environment. In general, higher freezing levels and relative humidities (tropical environments) are associated with smaller reflectivity-normalized median drop size (εDSD) than in the extratropics. Within the tropics, the smallest εDSD values are found in large, shallow convective systems where warm rain formation processes are thought to be predominant, whereas larger sizes are found in the stratiform regions of organized deep convection. In the extratropics, the largest εDSD values are found in the scattered convection that occurs when cold, dry continental air moves over the much warmer ocean after the passage of a cold front. These relationships are formally attributed to variables describing the large-scale environment, mesoscale organization, and profile characteristics via principal component (PC) analysis. The leading three PCs account for 23% of the variance in εDSD at the individual profile level and 45% of the variance in 1°-gridded mean values. The geographical distribution of εDSD is consistent with many of the observed regional reflectivity–rainfall (Z–R) relationships found in the literature as well as discrepancies between the TRMM radar-only and radiometer-only precipitation products. In particular, midlatitude and tropical regions near land tend to have larger drops for a given reflectivity, whereas the smallest drops are found in the eastern Pacific Ocean intertropical convergence zone.
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    In Situ Observations of Madden–Julian Oscillation Mixed Layer Dynamics in the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-03-28
    Description: The boreal winter response of the ocean mixed layer to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in the Indo-Pacific region is determined using in situ observations from the Argo profiling float dataset. Composite averages over numerous events reveal that the MJO forces systematic variations in mixed layer depth and temperature throughout the domain. Strong MJO mixed layer depth anomalies (〉15 m peak to peak) are observed in the central Indian Ocean and in the far western Pacific Ocean. The strongest mixed layer temperature variations (〉0.6°C peak to peak) are found in the central Indian Ocean and in the region between northwest Australia and Java. A heat budget analysis is used to evaluate which processes are responsible for mixed layer temperature variations at MJO time scales. Though uncertainties in the heat budget are on the same order as the temperature trend, the analysis nonetheless demonstrates that mixed layer temperature variations associated with the canonical MJO are driven largely by anomalous net surface heat flux. Net heat flux is dominated by anomalies in shortwave and latent heat fluxes, the relative importance of which varies between active and suppressed MJO conditions. Additionally, rapid deepening of the mixed layer in the central Indian Ocean during the onset of active MJO conditions induces significant basin-wide entrainment cooling. In the central equatorial Indian Ocean, MJO-induced variations in mixed layer depth can modulate net surface heat flux, and therefore mixed layer temperature variations, by up to ~40%. This highlights the importance of correctly representing intraseasonal mixed layer depth variations in climate models in order to accurately simulate mixed layer temperature, and thus air–sea interaction, associated with the MJO.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    Ocean Heat Transport and Water Vapor Greenhouse in a Warm Equable Climate: A New Look at the Low Gradient Paradox (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-03-15
    Description: The authors study the role of ocean heat transport (OHT) in the maintenance of a warm, equable, ice-free climate. An ensemble of idealized aquaplanet GCM calculations is used to assess the equilibrium sensitivity of global mean surface temperature and its equator-to-pole gradient (ΔT) to variations in OHT, prescribed through a simple analytical formula representing export out of the tropics and poleward convergence. Low-latitude OHT warms the mid- to high latitudes without cooling the tropics; increases by 1°C and ΔT decreases by 2.6°C for every 0.5-PW increase in OHT across 30° latitude. This warming is relatively insensitive to the detailed meridional structure of OHT. It occurs in spite of near-perfect atmospheric compensation of large imposed variations in OHT: the total poleward heat transport is nearly fixed. The warming results from a convective adjustment of the extratropical troposphere. Increased OHT drives a shift from large-scale to convective precipitation in the midlatitude storm tracks. Warming arises primarily from enhanced greenhouse trapping associated with convective moistening of the upper troposphere. Warming extends to the poles by atmospheric processes even in the absence of high-latitude OHT. A new conceptual model for equable climates is proposed, in which OHT plays a key role by driving enhanced deep convection in the midlatitude storm tracks. In this view, the climatic impact of OHT depends on its effects on the greenhouse properties of the atmosphere, rather than its ability to increase the total poleward energy transport.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Strong Dynamical Modulation of the Cooling of the Polar Stratosphere Associated with the Antarctic Ozone Hole (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-01-15
    Description: A model simulation forced by prescribed ozone depletion shows strong dynamical modulation of the springtime cooling of the polar stratosphere associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The authors find that in late spring the anomalous radiative cooling in response to ozone depletion is almost canceled above ~100 hPa by an increase in dynamical heating. Between ~300 and ~100 hPa, however, it is enhanced by a reduction in dynamical heating, resulting in the descent of the cold anomaly down to the tropopause. In early summer increased dynamical heating dominates as the radiative cooling diminishes so that the cold anomaly associated with the delayed breakup of the stratospheric vortex is reduced. The anomalous dynamical heating is driven by changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation arising primarily from the dissipation of resolved-scale waves. The model changes are broadly consistent with trends from reanalysis and offline diagnoses of heating rates using a radiation scheme. These results help one to understand dynamically induced change in the evolution and timing of the stratospheric vortex in recent decades and will help to enable improved simulation of the Southern Hemisphere climate.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Wave Breaking Dissipation Observed with “SWIFT” Drifters (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    Adaptive Beamforming Technique for Accurate Vertical Wind Measurements with Multichannel MST Radar (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Dual-Directional Radar Observation for Preliminary Assessment of the Ku-Band Broadband Radar Network (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    A Fully Conserved Minimal Adjustment Scheme with (T,S) Coherency for Stabilization of Hydrographic Profiles (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Geophysical Applications of Partial Wavelet Coherence and Multiple Wavelet Coherence (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Examining the Impact of Surface Currents on Satellite Scatterometer and Altimeter Ocean Winds (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Performance Evaluation for a Lightning Location System Based on Observations of Artificially Triggered Lightning and Natural Lightning Flashes (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Sensitivity of the Track and Intensity Forecasts of Typhoon Megi (2010) to Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors with the Ensemble Kalman Filter (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Isobaric Height Perturbations Associated with Mountain Waves Measured by Aircraft during the Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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