ALBERT

Description: Paleoceanographic evidence from the Southern Ocean reveals an apparent stark meridional divide in biogeochemical dynamics associated with the glacial-interglacial cycles of the late Neogene. South of the present-day position of the Antarctic Polar Front biogenic opal is generally much more abundant in sediments during interglacials compared to glacials. To the north, an anti-phased relationship is observed, with maximum opal abundance instead occurring during glacials. This antagonistic response of sedimentary properties is an important model validation target for testing hypotheses of glacial-interglacial change, particularly with respect to understanding the causes of the variability in atmospheric CO2. Here, I illustrate a time-dependent modelling approach to helping understand past climatic change by means of the generation of synthetic sediment core records. I find a close match between model-predicted and observed down-core changes in sedimentary opal content is achieved when changes in seasonal sea-ice extent is imposed, suggesting that the cryosphere is probably the primary driver of the striking features exhibited by the paleoceanographic record of this region.

Description: The Planet Simulator was used to perform equilibrium simulations of the Eemian interglacial at 125 kyBP and the glacial inception at 115 kyBP. Additionally, an accelerated transient simulation of that interval was performed. During this period the changes of Earth's orbital parameters led to a reduction of summer insolation in the northern latitudes. The model has been run in different configurations in order to evaluate the influence of the individual sub-models. The strongest reaction on the insolation change was observed when the atmosphere was coupled with all available sub-systems: a mixed-layer ocean and a sea-ice model as well as a vegetation model. In the simulations representing the interglacial, the near-surface temperature in northern latitudes is higher compared to the preindustrial reference run and almost no perennial snow cover occurs. In the run for the glacial inception, wide areas in mid and high northern latitudes show negative temperature anomalies and wide areas are covered by snow or ice. The transient simulation shows that snow volume starts to increase after summer insolation has fallen below a critical value. The main reason for the beginning glaciation is the locally reduced (summer) temperature as a consequence of reduced summer insolation. Therefore, a larger fraction of precipitation falls as snow and less snow can melt. That mechanism is amplified by the snow-albedo-feedback.

Description: A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). This study presents the large scale features of the simulated climates and compares the new model results to those of the atmospheric models from the first phase of the PMIP, for which sea surface temperature was prescribed or computed using simple slab ocean formulations. We consider first the large scale features of the climate change, pointing out some of the major differences between the different sets of experiments. Then we quantify the latitudinal shift of the location of the ITCZ in the tropical regions during boreal summer. It is shown that this shift is limited for LGM, whereas a northward shift and an increase of precipitation are well depicted for mid-Holocene in continental regions affected by monsoon precipitation. In the last part we quantify for both periods the feedback from snow and sea-ice in mid and high latitudes. We show that it contributes for half of the cooling in the northern hemisphere for LGM, the second half being achieved by the reduced CO2 and water vapour in the atmosphere. For mid-Holocene the snow and albedo feedbacks strengthen spring cooling and enhance boreal summer warming, whereas water vapour reinforces the late summer warming. These feedbacks are modest in the southern hemisphere. For LGM most of the surface cooling is due to CO2 and water vapour.

Description: The significance of the apparent 1470 years cycle in the recurrence of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, observed in the Greenland ice cores, is debated. Here we present statistical significance tests of this periodicity. The detection of a periodicity relies strongly on the accuracy of the dating of the DO events. Here we use both the new NGRIP GICC05 time scale based on multi-parameter annual layer counting and the GISP2 time scale where the periodicity is most pronounced. For the NGRIP dating the recurrence times are indistinguishable from a random occurrence. This is also the case for the GISP2 dating, except in the case where the DO9 event is omitted from the record. Whether or not the record shows a truly periodic beating has strong implications for identifying the underlying cause. If the recurrence is periodic it suggests an external cause. If the recurrence of DO events is not periodic it points to triggering mechanisms internal to the climate system being manifested at the millennial timescale.

Description: Climate simulations of the Eemian interglacial and the last glacial inception have been performed by forcing a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model with insolation patterns of these periods. The parameters of the Earth's orbit have been set to conditions of 125 000 and 115 000 years before present (yr BP). Compared to today, these dates represent periods with enhanced and weakened seasonality of insolation on the northern hemisphere. Here we analyze the simulated change in winter storm tracks. The change in the orbital configuration has a strong impact on the meridional temperature gradients and therefore on strength and location of the storm tracks. The North Atlantic storm track is strenghtened, shifted northward and extends further to the east in the simulation for the Eemian at 125 kyr BP. As one consequence, the northern parts of Europe experience an increase in winter precipitation. The frequency of winter storm days increases over large parts of the North Atlantic. Opposite but weaker changes in storm track activity are simulated for 115 kyr BP.

Description: Large-scale atmospheric patterns are examined on orbital timescales using the ECHO-G which explicitly resolves the atmosphere – ocean – sea ice dynamics. It is shown that in contrast to boreal summer where the climate mainly follows the local radiative forcing, the boreal winter climate is strongly determined by modulation of the atmospheric circulation. We find that during a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation the convection in the tropical Pacific is below normal. The atmospheric circulation patterns induce non-uniform temperature anomalies, much stronger in amplitude than by the direct solar insolation. Together with the direct solar insolation this provides for a temperature drop over the Northern Hemisphere continents for 115 000 years before present, large areas over northern Asia and Alaska become a desert, and the grass land expanded to the north. The spatial pattern of temperature and vegetation changes differs from a more hemisphere-wide cooling, i.e. induced by oceanic freshwater in the northern North Atlantic. The signatures of different forcing mechanisms are important for the interpretation of proxy data as well as for the understanding of underlying mechanisms at the end of the last interglacial.

Description: We present here a comparison between the outputs of a set of 25 climate models run for the mid-Holocene period (6 ka BP) with a set of palaeo-climate reconstructions from over 400 fossil pollen sequences distributed across the European continent. Three climate parameters were available (moisture availability, temperature of the coldest month and growing degree days), which were then grouped together using cluster analysis to provide regions of homogenous climate change. Each model was then investigated to see if it reproduced 1) the same directions of change and 2) the correct location of these regions. A fuzzy logic distance was used to compare the output of the model with the data, which allowed uncertainties from both the model and data to be taken into account. The initial comparison showed that the models were only capable of reproducing regions of little climate change, as the data-based reconstructions have a much larger range of changes due to their local nature. A correction for the model standard deviation was then applied to allow the comparison to proceed, and this second test shows that the majority of models simulate all the observed patterns of climatic change, although most do not simulate the observed magnitude of change. The models were then compared by distance to data, and by the amount of correction required. The majority of the models are grouped together both in distance and correction, suggesting that they are becoming more consistent. A test against a set of zero anomalies (no climate change) shows that, whilst the models are unable to reproduce the exact patterns of change, they all produce the correct direction of change for the mid-Holocene.

Description: The study of the distribution of the crystallographic orientations (the fabric) along ice cores supplies information on the past and current ice flows of ice-sheets. Beside the usually observed formation of a vertical single maximum fabric, the EPICA Dome Concordia ice core (EDC) shows an abrupt and unexpected strenghtening of its fabric during termination II around 1750 m depth. Such strengthenings were already observed for sites located on an ice-sheet. This suggests that horizontal shear could occur along the EDC core. Moreover, the change in the fabric leads to a modification of the viscosity between neighbouring ice layers. Through the use of an anisotropic ice flow model, we quantify the change in viscosity and investigate its implication on ice flow and dating.

Description: The Last Glacial Maximum climate is one of the classic benchmarks used both to test the ability of coupled models to simulate climates different from that ot the present-day and to better understand the possible range of mechanisms that could be involved in future climate change. It also bears the advantage of being one of the most well documented periods with respect to palaeoclimatic records, allowing a thorough data-model comparison. We present here an ensemble of Last Glacial Maximum climate simulations obtained with the Earth System model LOVECLIM, including coupled dynamic atmosphere, ocean and vegetation components. The climate obtained using standard parameter values is then compared to available proxy data for the surface ocean, vegetation, oceanic circulation and atmospheric conditions. Interestingly, the oceanic circulation obtained resembles that of the present-day, but with increased overturning rates. As this result is in contradiction with the "classic" palaeoceanographic view, we ran a range of sensitivity experiments to explore the response of the model and the possibilities for other oceanic circulation states. After a critical review of our LGM state with respect to available proxy data, we conclude that the balance between water masses obtained is consistent with the available data although the specific characteristics (temperature, salinity) are not in full agreement. The consistency of the simulated state is further reinforced by the fact that the mean surface climate obtained is shown to be generally in agreement with the most recent reconstructions of vegetation and sea surface temperatures, even at regional scales.

Description: Temperature-depth (T-z) profiles from twenty-four shallow boreholes of less than 250 m in depth located in flat, semi-arid areas of the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces initially measured in the late 1980's and early 1990's and repeated between 2004 and 2006 show strong ground surface temperature (GST) warming signatures. GST changes of 0.1–0.2°C, and 0.4°C, are observed between the measurements for the shorter (decade) and longer (two decades) time spans, respectively. Borehole sites with repeated temperature logs are selected to demonstrate that multiple T-z profiles provide general agreement between GST warming and observed surface air temperature (SAT) warming measured at nearby historical climate stations. A comparison of measured changes from repeated temperature logs with those simulated from SAT forcing demonstrates the influence of SAT on the observed deviation of temperature with depth despite variations in snow cover. Repeated borehole measurements from the northern Great Plains of the USA also identify a similar positive temperature change but of lower magnitude. Temperature changes since 1900 in the southern Canadian Prairies and the adjoining northern Great Plains of the USA, as derived from the functional state inversion (FSI) of deeper borehole logs, average 2.5°C but show a strong latitudinal gradient.