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Notizen: The General Inquirer: A Computer Approach to Content Analysis, by Philip J. Stone, Dexter C., Dunphy, Marshall S. Smith, Daniel M. Olgilvie, with associates.The Territorial Imperative: A Personal Inquiry into the Animal Origins of Property and Nations. The Modern Metropolis: Its Origins, Growth, Characteristics, and Planning, selected essays of Hans Blumenfeld, edited by Paul D. Spreiregen. Geography of Market Centere and Retail Distribution, by Brian J. L. Berry. Migration and Metropolitan Growth: Two Analytical Models, by Ira S. Lowry.

Notizen: Integrated land-use—transportation models are characterized as models in which the redistributive effects of one subsystem upon the other are explicitly defined and incorporated into the model's structure. At the core of integrated models is a linking procedure whose function is to transform the outputs of one model component into inputs for the other. Despite major efforts made in the past to build operational large scale integrated models, the structural properties of such models remain largely unexplored.This paper describes a general framework for an integrated model consisting of prototype model components. These are an iterative activity allocation model of the Garin-Lowry type, an equilibrium-assignment transportation network model, and a linking procedure. Given the level of analysis, this framework is shown useful for exploring the analytics of integrated models and, in particular, their equilibrium properties. By means of many simulation experiments based on an hypothetical numerical example, the operation of the model is demonstrated with an emphasis on the locational interpretation of the integration procedure.On the basis of the empirical results and considering the model's intrinsic assumptions, the following major findings can be cited. First, the effects of nontravel factors (such as basic employment and zonal attractions) upon activity distribution are stronger than effects caused by changes in the transportation system. The latter effects were found to yield nonlinear and, spatially, nonuniform changes in activity location which also tended to be larger in peripheral regions. Second, implicit in the specification of the integration procedure are behavioral assumptions regarding time-lags in locational adjustments made by activities in reaction to rising cost of travel. The present formulation implies that once located, activities do not revise their locational decisions despite substantial increases in travel costs. At the other extreme, all activities are permitted to readjust their locational preferences after the final interzonal travel costs are derived. The effect upon activity distribution of the latter specification is, of course, larger than that of the former, although less than the effect yielded by changes in nontravel factors.Regarding the equilibrium properties of the integrated system, both the theoretical and empirical analyses show that the entire model will converge into an equilibrium solution and that the corresponding trip patterns are also at equilibrium. These results will hold as long as the operation of the integrated models is completely controlled by the generation functions of the land-use model and the transportation model component only affects the spatial distribution of activities.Finally, the results from the simulation experiments indicate that the computed mean travel cost parameter tends to stabilize around a certain value as the level of demand for travel, within the system, rises. There is evidence that compensating changes in the location and composition of this demand are the main causes of this phenomenon.In light of these findings, it is possible to point to three key problems whose resolution could largely improve the predictive power of integrated models. First, it would be useful to define activity models in which the generation of activities is, among other things, a function of travel conditions. Second, currently formulated integrated models do not contain trip demand functions and, thus, demand for travel by an activity unit is regarded as completely inelastic. Third, different locating activities respond differently—over time and space—to changíng travel conditions, and models should, therefore, reflect explicitly such differences in activity behavior. A recent paper by Los [14], is an important contribution to the analysis of this issue.

Notizen: Book reviewed in this article: Population Redistribution and Public Policy, by Brian J.L. Berry and Lester P. Silverman (eds.). Spatial Analysis, Industry and the Industrial Environment, Volume I—Industrial Systems, by F.E. Ian Hamilton and G.J.R. Linge (eds.). Evaluation in Environmental Planning: Assessing Environmental, Social, Economic and Political Trade-offs, by Donald M. McAllister. Spatial Inequalities and Regional Development, by H. Folmer and J. Oosterhaven (eds.). Memoirs, by Jean Monnet.

Notizen: Book Review in this Article: Spatial Analysis: A Reader in Statistical Geography, by Brian J. L. Berry and Duane F. Marble (eds.). The Economic Impact of TVA, by John R. Moore (ed.). Programming Investment in the Process Industries: An Approach to Sectoral Planning, by David A. Kendrick. Urbanization in Newly Developing Countries, by Gerald Breese. Investments for Capacity Expansion - Size, Location and Time Phasing, by Alan S. Manne (ed.). Linear and Convex Programming., By S.I. Zukhovitskiy and L.I. Avdeyeva.

Notizen: A simple procedure is presented for calibrating probability assessors who repetitively give continuous distributions rather than point probability estimates. The calibration function so derived can be used to display certain systematic bias features as well as for correcting future assessments. The need to perform calibration can often arise in single multistage inferential tasks as well as the repetitive estimation contexts and it is often necessary in both cases in order to avoid the covert dependencies which can arise between essentially independent variables because of systematic assessment bias on the part of the expert.

Notizen: Britain's poor industrial and economic performance over at least the past fifteen years is closely related to a national pattern of R & D activities that—by comparison with our main competitors—has been insufficient in volume, heavily concentrated in sectors of relatively minor industrial significance, and inadequately coupled to the problems and possibilities of production and the market. Reversing what in the 1970s was a strongly downward trend in British R & D and other innovative activities will require, amongst other things, more professionalism and skills in British engineering and management, and deliberate long-term strategies in industry and government to develop products, processes and markets that enable British industry to compete on the basis of quality and skills rather than low wages.

Notizen: Pollution Prevention PaysIndustrial Innovation-Technology, Policy, DigusionTechnical Change and EmploymentUnemploymentIndustrial New Product Development-A Manual for the 1980'sThe Heart of the Enterprise

Notizen: Statistics on Japanese R & D reveal various problems of policy and implementation. Some difficulties of Japanese technological development and possibilities for overcoming them are discussed. Among others a fundamental problem is the generation of technology with less reliance on Western support. The relationship between the need for self-generated technology and the fact of excessive reliance on technology imports is discussed in regard to superiority, inferiority and appropriateness of Japanese technology. Innovation in the Japanese automobile and iron and steel industries is characterized as integrative or combinatory innovation associated with managerial innovation. The conditions under which integrative innovation is effective are identified, and these conditions are expected to be valid for many other sectors. Finally, the mechanism of government–industry cooperation in Japan is identified as an informational control system in contrast to the financial control system in Western countries, and the major medium of control by the Japanese government is identified as technological forecasting information.These characteristics of Japanese technology management can be held up as valuable lessons for other countries given certain conditions which are expected to hold in many fields.

Notizen: In trying to explain the difficulties of implementing evaluation models it can be useful to study how evaluations of product development proposals are carried out in practice when they are not influenced by normative models. In this article some results are reported from an in-depth study of how project proposals were evaluated in two Swedish companies operating in the same industry. One was among the most innovative in the industry, its product development activities had led it into a series of new products and had resulted in a very high profitability and an extremely high rate of growth. The product development of the other company had resulted much more in variations in existing products than in major innovations. Growth was very slow and profitability was approaching a critically low level.The way project proposals were evaluated in the companies proved to differ substantially. In one company the dominating evaluation mode was one where the task is considered to be to estimate what effect an acceptance of the project proposal will have on overall goals, such as profitability and growth. This is called the rationalistic approach.In the other company an evaluation mode with the opposite characteristics was used. The evaluators consider a few conspicuous or at least easily visible characteristics of the project proposal. On the basis of these a picture of the project is created which is perceived as good or bad. This picture is the basis for the decision. This is called the impressionistic approach.In the case reported here the rationalistic mode was used by the least successful and least innovative company while the impressionistic mode was used by the most successful and most innovative company. The paper presents arguments for interpreting the relationship between evaluation mode and performance not as coincidental but as causal. It is argued that even if the impressionistic mode may seem irrational from a traditional point of view, it is superior to the rationalistic one in some important respects.

Notizen: Research Development (RD) is concerned with the conversion of inventions (i.e. new ideas) into innovations (i.e. new products, processes and services in the market-place). Empirical evidence indicates that the rate of success of RD is small. In the innovation chain of events the scientific or technical accomplishment is but one link, a necessary but not sufficient condition of success. Often the market is the decisive factor.Many research and development organizations (R & DOs), especially those funded privately, allocate their resources with a strong orientation towards satisfying perceived market needs. If this incentive persists during the R & D work the RD effort will probably be much facilitated.In the light of the above concepts, the Brazilian R & D and RD experiences are reviewed with practical examples and emphasis on the efforts of Centro de Tecnologia Promon—CTP (Promon Technology Center). CTP works on non-conventional energy, industrial process development and telecommunication product development.The experience reported is not intended to serve as a general solution to R & D or RD problems in the developing world. The purpose is rather to suggest alternative pathways and to point out the importance of a diversified approach to the tough task of closing the innovation loop.