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  • 04.06. Seismology  (2)
  • 05.05. Mathematical geophysics  (1)
  • Animals
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  • Egu-Copernicus  (3)
  • 2020-2024  (3)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-08-29
    Description: A methodology to detect local incompleteness of macroseismic intensity data at the local scale is presented. In particular, the probability that undocumented effects actually occurred at a site is determined by considering intensity prediction equations (in their probabilistic form) integrated by observations relative to known events documented at surrounding sites. The outcomes of this analysis can be used to investigate how representative and known the seismic histories of localities are (i.e., the list of documented effects through time). The proposed approach is applied to the Italian area. The analysis shows that, at most of the considered sites, the effects of intensity ≥ 6 should most probably have occurred at least once, but they are not contained in the current version of the Italian macroseismic databases. In a few cases, instead, the lack of data may concern higher intensity levels (i.e., ≥ 8). The geographical distribution of potentially lost information reflects the heterogeneity of the seismic activity over the Italian territory.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1805–1816
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Macroseismology ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-08-29
    Description: The Italian historical earthquake record is among the richest worldwide; as such it allows for the development of advanced techniques for retrieving quantitative information by calibration with recent earthquakes. Building on a pilot elaboration of northern Italian earthquakes, we developed a procedure for determining the hypocentral depth of all Italian earthquakes from macroseismic intensity data alone. In a second step the procedure calculates their magnitude, taking into account the inferred depth. Hypocentral depth exhibits substantial variability countrywide but has so far received little attention: pre-instrumental earthquakes were routinely “flattened” at the upper-crustal level (∼10 km), on the grounds that the calculation of hypocentral depth is heavily dependent on the largely unknown local propagation properties. We gathered a learning set of 42 earthquakes documented by reliable instrumental data and by numerous macroseismic intensity observations. We observe (1) that within 50 km from the epicenter the ground motion attenuation rate is primarily controlled by hypocentral depth and largely independent of magnitude, (2) that within this distance the fluctuations in crustal attenuation properties are negligible countrywide, and (3) that knowing both the depth and the expected epicentral intensity makes it possible to estimate a reliable magnitude.
    Description: INGV DPC, 2019–2021 agreement; All. A, WP 7
    Description: Published
    Description: 1007–1028
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: hypocentral depth ; magnitude ; macroseismology ; pre-instrumental earthquakes ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2023-12-27
    Description: In recent years, there has been a growing inter- est in ensemble approaches for modelling the atmospheric transport of volcanic aerosol, ash, and lapilli (tephra). The development of such techniques enables the exploration of novel methods for incorporating real observations into tephra dispersal models. However, traditional data assimilation al- gorithms, including ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) meth- ods, can yield suboptimal state estimates for positive-definite variables such as those related to volcanic aerosols and tephra deposits. This study proposes two new ensemble- based data assimilation techniques for semi-positive-definite variables with highly skewed uncertainty distributions, in- cluding aerosol concentrations and tephra deposit mass load- ing: the Gaussian with non-negative constraints (GNC) and gamma inverse-gamma (GIG) methods. The proposed meth- ods are applied to reconstruct the tephra fallout deposit re- sulting from the 2015 Calbuco eruption using an ensemble of 256 runs performed with the FALL3D dispersal model. An assessment of the methodologies is conducted consider- ing two independent datasets of deposit thickness measure- ments: an assimilation dataset and a validation dataset. Dif- ferent evaluation metrics (e.g. RMSE, MBE, and SMAPE) are computed for the validation dataset, and the results are compared to two references: the ensemble prior mean and the EnKF analysis. Results show that the assimilation leads to a significant improvement over the first-guess results ob- tained from the simple ensemble forecast. The evidence from this study suggests that the GNC method was the most skilful approach and represents a promising alternative for assimila- tion of volcanic fallout data. The spatial distributions of the tephra fallout deposit thickness and volume according to the GNC analysis are in good agreement with estimations based on field measurements and isopach maps reported in previ- ous studies. On the other hand, although it is an interesting approach, the GIG method failed to improve the EnKF analysis.
    Description: EU
    Description: Published
    Description: 3459–3478
    Description: OSV3: Sviluppo di nuovi sistemi osservazionali e di analisi ad alta sensibilità
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Data Assimilation ; Tephra deposits ; 05.05. Mathematical geophysics ; 01.01. Atmosphere ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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