ALBERT

Description: Germany has been operating permanently crewed research stations in Antarctica for more than 45 years. The opening of the Georg Forster Station (1976) and Georg von Neumayer Station (1981) initiated a period of continuous environmental monitoring that allowed both the former East Germany and West Germany to become contracting parties in, and achieve consultative status with, the framework of the Antarctic Treaty. This marked a milestone in German polar research. Continuous research at the Neumayer Station III, its two predecessors, and the now-dismantled former German Democratic Republic (GDR) Georg Forster Station is undertaken by teams of so-called “overwinterers”, presently with nine members, who stay at the base for longer than an entire Antarctic winter. Their long-term stay in Antarctica is defined by isolation, separation from civilization, routine work to sustain long-term scientific observations, and unique personal experiences. This article is dedicated to them and outlines their part and role in the German Antarctic research landscape.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. We developed a new version of the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM3), which has higher skills in representing the observed climatology and better computational efficiency than its predecessors. Its ocean component FESOM2 (Finite-volumE Sea ice–Ocean Model) has the multi-resolution functionality typical of unstructured-mesh models while still featuring a scalability and efficiency similar to regular-grid models. The atmospheric component OpenIFS (CY43R3) enables the use of the latest developments in the numerical-weather-prediction community in climate sciences. In this paper we describe the coupling of the model components and evaluate the model performance on a variable-resolution (25–125 km) ocean mesh and a 61 km atmosphere grid, which serves as a reference and starting point for other ongoing research activities with AWI-CM3. This includes the exploration of high and variable resolution and the development of a full Earth system model as well as the creation of a new sea ice prediction system. At this early development stage and with the given coarse to medium resolutions, the model already features above-CMIP6-average skills (where CMIP6 denotes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) in representing the climatology and competitive model throughput. Finally we identify remaining biases and suggest further improvements to be made to the model. 〈/jats:p〉

Description: The Wadden Sea became a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 2009 owing to its geographical and ecological importance. Given its status and its global recognition, academic understanding of, and engagement with, a diverse set of stakeholders is crucial to the sustainability of the Wadden Sea and the wildlife that inhabit its transnational boundaries. As such, this paper reviews with whom, how, and to what extent the academy has engaged with Wadden Sea stakeholders. This study finds that stakeholder groups (whom, with vested interests in the sea, might be expected to be present) are missing from academic publications focused on stakeholders in the Wadden Sea. Moreover, existing studies tend to focus on singular, categorized stakeholder ‘groups’, and lack transboundary integration, as well as reference to UN Sustainability Goal 14 – a key target for environmental protection. In sum, the review provides (1) an analysis of academic work that engages Wadden Sea stakeholders to assist future researchers undertaking work in this global ecologically significant area, and (2) a discussion of where future academic work might be developed.

Description: Ice shelves surrounding the Antarctic perimeter moderate ice discharge towards the ocean through buttressing. Ice-shelf evolution and integrity depend on the local surface accumulation, basal melting and on the spatially variable ice-shelf viscosity. These components of ice-shelf mass balance are often poorly constrained by observations and introduce uncertainties in ice-sheet projections. Isochronal radar stratigraphy is an observational archive for the atmospheric, oceanographic and ice-flow history of ice shelves. Here, we predict the stratigraphy of locally accumulated ice on ice shelves with a kinematic forward model for a given atmospheric and oceanographic scenario. This delineates the boundary between local meteoric ice (LMI) and continental meteoric ice (CMI). A large LMI to CMI ratio hereby marks ice shelves whose buttressing strength is more sensitive to changes in atmospheric precipitation patterns. A mismatch between the steady-state predictions of the kinematic forward model and observations from radar can highlight inconsistencies in the atmospheric and oceanographic input data or be an indicator for a transient ice-shelf history not accounted for in the model. We discuss pitfalls in numerical diffusion when calculating the age field and validate the kinematic model with the full Stokes ice-flow model Elmer/Ice. The Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf (East Antarctica) serves as a test case for this approach. There, we find a significant east–west gradient in the LMI / CMI ratio. The steady-state predictions concur with observations on larger spatial scales (〉10 km), but deviations on smaller scales are significant, e.g., because local surface accumulation patterns near the grounding zone are underestimated in Antarctic-wide estimates. Future studies can use these mismatches to optimize the input data or to pinpoint transient signatures in the ice-shelf history using the ever growing archive of radar observations of internal ice stratigraphy.

Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉〈jats:p〉In spite of a proliferation of academic and policy-oriented interest in deep sea mining (DSM), this paper argues that two underlying questions remain underexplored. The first relates to 〈jats:italic〉what〈/jats:italic〉 exactly the seabed 〈jats:italic〉is〈/jats:italic〉; the second to 〈jats:italic〉who〈/jats:italic〉 the stakeholders 〈jats:italic〉are〈/jats:italic〉. It is argued that a greater interrogation of how the seabed is defined and understood, and a deeper consideration of how stakeholders are identified and the politics of their inclusion, is crucial to the enactment of policy and planning techniques. Through the analysis of current regulations to govern DSM in both national and international jurisdictions, this paper critically examines these seemingly banal but vital questions in different contexts. It is contended that most regulations are ‘fuzzy’ when it comes to addressing these questions, with the result that different understandings of the seabed and the implications of mining are ignored and that who stakeholders are and how they are defined causes many relevant voices to be unheard. It is argued, therefore, that it is imperative to address these often-overlooked questions directly in order to inform future seabed policy and governance.〈/jats:p〉

Description: The robustness of complex networks was one of the first phenomena studied after the inception of network science. However, many contemporary presentations of this theory do not go beyond the original papers. Here we revisit this topic with the aim of providing a deep but didactic introduction. We pay attention to some complications in the computation of giant component sizes that are commonly ignored. Following an intuitive procedure, we derive simple formulas that capture the effect of common attack scenarios on arbitrary (configuration model) networks. We hope that this easy introduction will help new researchers discover this beautiful area of network science.

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1% relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1±0.5GtCyr-1 (9.9±0.5GtCyr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1±0.7GtCyr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9±0.8GtCyr-1 (40.0±2.9GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2±0.2GtCyr-1 (2.5±0.1ppmyr-1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ±0.4GtCyr-1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.9GtCyr-1, with a BIM of -0.6GtCyr-1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71±0.1ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0% (0.1% to 1.9%) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2ppm, more than 50% above pre-industrial levels (around 278ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2021, but discrepancies of up to 1GtCyr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at 10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Description: Observations of rapid ongoing grounding line retreat, ice shelf thinning and accelerated ice flow from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may forebode a possible collapse if global temperatures continue to increase. Understanding and reconstructing West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics in past warmer-than-present times will inform about its behavior as an analogue for future climate scenarios. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 379 visited the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica to obtain geological records suitable for this purpose. During the expedition, cores from two drill sites at the Resolution Drift on the continental rise returned sediments whose deposition was possibly influenced by West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics from late Miocene to Holocene times. To examine the West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics, shipboard physical properties and sedimentological data are correlated with seismic data and extrapolated across the Resolution Drift via core-log-seismic integration. An interval with strongly variable physical properties, high diatom abundance and ice-rafted debris occurrence, correlating with partially high amplitude seismic reflection characteristics was identified between 4.2 and 3.2 Ma. Sedimentation during this interval is interpreted as having occurred during an extended warm period with a dynamic West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Amundsen Sea sector. These records compare to those of other drill sites in the Ross Sea and the Bellingshausen Sea, and thus suggest an almost simultaneous occurrence of extended warm periods in all three locations.

Description: Zooplankton plays a major role in ocean food webs and biogeochemical cycles, and provides major ecosystem services as a main driver of the biological carbon pump and in sustaining fish communities. Zooplankton is also sensitive to its environment and reacts to its changes. To better understand the importance of zooplankton, and to inform prognostic models that try to represent them, spatially-resolved biomass estimates of key plankton taxa are desirable. In this study we predict, for the first time, the global biomass distribution of 19 zooplankton taxa (1-50 mm Equivalent Spherical Diameter) using observations with the Underwater Vision Profiler 5, a quantitative in situ imaging instrument. After classification of 466,872 organisms from more than 3,549 profiles (0-500 m) obtained between 2008 and 2019 throughout the globe, we estimated their individual biovolumes and converted them to biomass using taxa-specific conversion factors. We then associated these biomass estimates with climatologies of environmental variables (temperature, salinity, oxygen, etc.), to build habitat models using boosted regression trees. The results reveal maximal zooplankton biomass values around 60°N and 55°S as well as minimal values around the oceanic gyres. An increased zooplankton biomass is also predicted for the equator. Global integrated biomass (0-500 m) was estimated at 0.403 PgC. It was largely dominated by Copepoda (35.7%, mostly in polar regions), followed by Eumalacostraca (26.6%) Rhizaria (16.4%, mostly in the intertropical convergence zone). The machine learning approach used here is sensitive to the size of the training set and generates reliable predictions for abundant groups such as Copepoda (R2 ≈ 20-66%) but not for rare ones (Ctenophora, Cnidaria, R2 〈 5%). Still, this study offers a first protocol to estimate global, spatially resolved zooplankton biomass and community composition from in situ imaging observations of individual organisms. The underlying dataset covers a period of 10 years while approaches that rely on net samples utilized datasets gathered since the 1960s. Increased use of digital imaging approaches should enable us to obtain zooplankton biomass distribution estimates at basin to global scales in shorter time frames in the future.

Description: The original version of the Description of Additional Supplementary Files associated with this Article contained errors in the legends of Supplementary Data 5–8 and omitted legends for the Source Data. The HTML has been updated to include a corrected version of the Description of Additional Supplementary Files; the original incorrect version of this file can be found as Supplementary Information associated with this Correction.

Description: Two airborne field campaigns focusing on observations of Arctic mixed-phase clouds and boundary layer processes and their role with respect to Arctic amplification have been carried out in spring 2019 and late summer 2020 over the Fram Strait northwest of Svalbard. The latter campaign was closely connected to the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. Comprehensive datasets of the cloudy Arctic atmosphere have been collected by operating remote sensing instruments, in-situ probes, instruments for the measurement of turbulent fluxes of energy and momentum, and dropsondes on board the AWI research aircraft Polar 5. In total, 24 flights with 111 flight hours have been performed over open ocean, the marginal sea ice zone, and sea ice. The datasets follow documented methods and quality assurance and are suited for studies on Arctic mixedphase clouds and their transformation processes, for studies with a focus on Arctic boundary layer processes, and for satellite validation applications. All datasets are freely available via the world data center PANGAEA.

Description: The effects of climate change (CC) on contaminants and their potential consequences to marine ecosystem services and human wellbeing are of paramount importance, as they pose overlapping risks. Here, we discuss how the interaction between CC and contaminants leads to poorly constrained impacts that affects the sensitivity of organisms to contamination leading to impaired ecosystem function, services and risk assessment evaluations. Climate drivers, such as ocean warming, ocean deoxygenation, changes in circulation, ocean acidification, and extreme events interact with trace metals, organic pollutants, excess nutrients, and radionuclides in a complex manner. Overall, the holistic consideration of the pollutants-climate change nexus has significant knowledge gaps, but will be important in understanding the fate, transport, speciation, bioavailability, toxicity, and inventories of contaminants. Greater focus on these uncertainties would facilitate improved predictions of future changes in the global biogeochemical cycling of contaminants and both human health and marine ecosystems.

Description: The Arctic is no longer a region dominated by thick multi-year ice (MYI), but by thinner, more dynamic, first-year-ice (FYI). This shift towards a seasonal ice cover has consequences for the under-ice light field, as sea-ice and its snow cover are a major factor influencing radiative transfer and thus, biological activity within- and under the ice. This work describes in situ measurements of light transmission through different types of sea-ice (MYI and FYI) performed during two expeditions to the Chukchi sea in August 2018 and 2019, as well as a simple characterisation of the biological state of the ice microbial system. Our analysis shows that, in late summer, two different states of FYI exist in this region: 1) FYI in an enhanced state of decay, and 2) robust FYI, more likely to survive the melt season. The two FYI types have different average ice thicknesses: 0.74 ± 0.07 m (N = 9) and 0.93 ± 0.11m (N = 9), different average values of transmittance: 0.15 ± 0.04 compared to 0.09 ± 0.02, and different ice extinction coefficients: 1.49 ± 0.28 and 1.12 ± 0.19 m -1. The measurements performed over MYI present different characteristics with a higher average ice thickness of 1.56 ± 0.12 m, lower transmittance (0.05 ± 0.01) with ice extinction coefficients of 1.24 ± 0.26 m-1 (N = 12). All ice types show consistently low salinity, chlorophyll a concentrations and nutrients, which may be linked to the timing of the measurements and the flushing of melt-water through the ice. With continued Arctic warming, the summer ice will continue to retreat, and the decayed variant of FYI, with a higher scattering of light, but a reduced thickness, leading to an overall higher light transmittance, may become a more relevant ice type. Our results suggest that in this scenario, more light would reach the ice interior and the upper-ocean.

Description: The fast and remarkable growth of global aquaculture in recent years has created new challenges, such as guaranteeing a sustainable supply of raw materials used for aquafeed formulation. Gammarids are low-trophic crustaceans with an increasing interest in aquaculture due to their high nutritional profiles and their capacity to grow under high-density conditions. Moreover, gammarids have the ability to thrive on a wide range of sidestreams while accumulating relatively high levels of long-chain (≥C20) polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFA). In the present study, juveniles of the marine gammarid Gammarus locusta were cultured at four different temperatures (5°C, 10°C, 15°C, and 20°C) for 21 days and fed three diets, including the seaweed Fucus sp. as control, and carrot leaves and coconut flesh representing two agri-food industry sidestreams. Our results indicate that both the survival and biomass of G. locusta were highly affected by diet, with coconut showing the lowest growth performance. The temperature had no effect on biomass, although high temperature (20°C) resulted in a decrease in survival. The effects of temperature on the gammarid fatty acids were not evident, with diet being the main modulator of the profiles. Furthermore, the results also reveal that the Fucus sp. diet was associated with relatively high percentages of n-3 and n-6 LC-PUFA. Interestingly, essential LC-PUFA such as eicosapentaenoic (20:5n-3, EPA) and docosahexaenoic (22:6n-3, DHA) acids were detected in gammarids fed on either Fucus sp. or any of the sidestreams irrespectively of their presence in the diets. These results suggest an ability of G. locusta for LC-PUFA biosynthesis (trophic upgrading) and/or retention, making this species a promising candidate for the production of high-value ingredients for aquafeeds.

Description: Genome analyses predict that the cofactor cobalamin (vitamin B12, called B12 herein) is produced by only one-third of all prokaryotes but almost all encode at least one B12-dependent enzyme, in most cases methionine synthase. This implies that the majority of prokaryotes relies on exogenous B12 supply and interacts with producers. B12 consists of a corrin ring centred around a cobalt ion and the lower ligand 5’6-dimethylbenzimidazole (DMB). It has never been tested whether availability of this pivotal cofactor, DMB or its intermediate α-ribazole affect growth and composition of prokaryotic microbial communities. Here we show that in the subtropical, equatorial and polar frontal Pacific Ocean supply of B12 and α-ribazole enhances heterotrophic prokaryotic production and alters the composition of prokaryotic and heterotrophic protist communities. In the polar frontal Pacific, the SAR11 clade and Oceanospirillales increased their relative abundances upon B12 supply. In the subtropical Pacific, Oceanospirillales increased their relative abundance upon B12 supply as well but also downregulated the transcription of the btuB gene, encoding the outer membrane permease for B12. Surprisingly, Prochlorococcus, known to produce pseudo-B12 and not B12, exhibited significant upregulation of genes encoding key proteins of photosystem I + II, carbon fixation and nitrate reduction upon B12 supply in the subtropical Pacific. These findings show that availability of B12 and α-ribazole affect growth and composition of prokaryotic and protist communities in oceanic systems thus revealing far-reaching consequences of methionine biosynthesis and other B12-dependent enzymatic reactions on a community level.

Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉〈jats:p〉Biotin (vitamin B〈jats:sub〉7〈/jats:sub〉) is involved in a wide range of essential biochemical reactions and a crucial micronutrient that is vital for many pro- and eukaryotic organisms. The few biotin measurements in the world’s oceans show that availability is subject to strong fluctuations. Numerous marine microorganisms exhibit biotin auxotrophy and therefore rely on supply by other organisms. Desthiobiotin is the primary precursor of biotin and has recently been detected at concentrations similar to biotin in seawater. The last enzymatic reaction in the biotin biosynthetic pathway converts desthiobiotin to biotin via the biotin synthase (BioB). The role of desthiobiotin as a precursor of biotin synthesis in microbial systems, however, is largely unknown. Here we demonstrate experimentally that bacteria can overcome biotin auxotrophy if they retain the 〈jats:italic〉bioB〈/jats:italic〉 gene and desthiobiotin is available. A genomic search of 1068 bacteria predicts that the biotin biosynthetic potential varies greatly among different phylogenetic groups and that 20% encode solely 〈jats:italic〉bioB〈/jats:italic〉 and thus can potentially overcome biotin auxotrophy. Many 〈jats:italic〉Actino〈/jats:italic〉- and 〈jats:italic〉Alphaproteobacteria〈/jats:italic〉 cannot synthesize biotin de novo, but some possess solely 〈jats:italic〉bioB〈/jats:italic〉, whereas the vast majority of 〈jats:italic〉Gammaproteobacteria〈/jats:italic〉 and 〈jats:italic〉Flavobacteriia〈/jats:italic〉 exhibit the last four crucial biotin synthesis genes. We detected high intra- and extracellular concentrations of the precursor relative to biotin in the prototrophic bacterium, 〈jats:italic〉Vibrio campbellii〈/jats:italic〉, with extracellular desthiobiotin reaching up to 1.09 ± 0.15*10〈jats:sup〉6〈/jats:sup〉 molecules per cell during exponential growth. Our results provide evidence for the ecological role of desthiobiotin as an escape route to overcome biotin auxotrophy for bacteria in the ocean and presumably in other ecosystems.〈/jats:p〉

Description: Despite accumulating data on microbial biogeographic patterns in terrestrial and aquatic environments, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how these patterns establish, in particular in ocean basins. Here we show the relative significance of the ecological mechanisms selection, dispersal and drift for shaping the composition of microbial communities in the Pacific Ocean over a transect of 12,400 km between subantarctic and subarctic regions. In the epipelagic, homogeneous selection contributes 50–60% and drift least to the three mechanism for the assembly of prokaryotic communities whereas in the upper mesopelagic, drift is relatively most important for the particle-associated subcommunities. Temperature is important for the relative significance of homogeneous selection and dispersal limitation for community assembly. The relative significance of both mechanisms was inverted with increasing temperature difference along the transect. For eukaryotes 〉8 µm, homogeneous selection is also the most important mechanisms at two epipelagic depths whereas at all other depths drift is predominant. As species interactions are essential for structuring microbial communities we further analyzed co-occurrence-based community metrics to assess biogeographic patterns over the transect. These interaction-adjusted indices explained much better variations in microbial community composition as a function of abiotic and biotic variables than compositional or phylogenetic distance measures like Bray–Curtis or UniFrac. Our analyses are important to better understand assembly processes of microbial communities in the upper layers of the largest ocean and how they adapt to effectively perform in global biogeochemical processes. Similar principles presumably act upon microbial community assembly in other ocean basins.

Description: Genome analyses predict that the cofactor cobalamin (vitamin B12, called B12 herein) is produced by only one-third of all prokaryotes but almost all encode at least one B12-dependent enzyme, in most cases methionine synthase. This implies that the majority of prokaryotes relies on exogenous B12 supply and interacts with producers. B12 consists of a corrin ring centred around a cobalt ion and the lower ligand 5’6-dimethylbenzimidazole (DMB). It has never been tested whether availability of this pivotal cofactor, DMB or its intermediate α-ribazole affect growth and composition of prokaryotic microbial communities. Here we show that in the subtropical, equatorial and polar frontal Pacific Ocean supply of B12 and α-ribazole enhances heterotrophic prokaryotic production and alters the composition of prokaryotic and heterotrophic protist communities. In the polar frontal Pacific, the SAR11 clade and Oceanospirillales increased their relative abundances upon B12 supply. In the subtropical Pacific, Oceanospirillales increased their relative abundance upon B12 supply as well but also downregulated the transcription of the btuB gene, encoding the outer membrane permease for B12. Surprisingly, Prochlorococcus, known to produce pseudo-B12 and not B12, exhibited significant upregulation of genes encoding key proteins of photosystem I + II, carbon fixation and nitrate reduction upon B12 supply in the subtropical Pacific. These findings show that availability of B12 and α-ribazole affect growth and composition of prokaryotic and protist communities in oceanic systems thus revealing far-reaching consequences of methionine biosynthesis and other B12-dependent enzymatic reactions on a community level.

Description: Microbial communities are major drivers of global elemental cycles in the oceans due to their high abundance and enormous taxonomic and functional diversity. Recent studies assessed microbial taxonomic and functional biogeography in global oceans but microbial functional biogeography remains poorly studied. Here we show that in the near-surface Atlantic and Southern Ocean between 62°S and 47°N microbial communities exhibit distinct taxonomic and functional adaptations to regional environmental conditions. Richness and diversity showed maxima around 40° latitude and intermediate temperatures, especially in functional genes (KEGG-orthologues, KOs) and gene profiles. A cluster analysis yielded three clusters of KOs but five clusters of genes differing in the abundance of genes involved in nutrient and energy acquisition. Gene profiles showed much higher distance-decay rates than KO and taxonomic profiles. Biotic factors were identified as highly influential in explaining the observed patterns in the functional profiles, whereas temperature and biogeographic province mainly explained the observed taxonomic patterns. Our results thus indicate fine-tuned genetic adaptions of microbial communities to regional biotic and environmental conditions in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean.

Description: Biodiversity is expected to change in response to future global warming. However, it is difficult to predict how species will track the ongoing climate change. Here we use the fossil record of planktonic foraminifera to assess how biodiversity responded to climate change with a magnitude comparable to future anthropogenic warming. We compiled time series of planktonic foraminifera assemblages, covering the time from the last ice age across the deglaciation to the current warm period. Planktonic foraminifera assemblages shifted immediately when temperature began to rise at the end of the last ice age and continued to change until approximately 5,000 years ago, even though global temperature remained relatively stable during the last 11,000 years. The biotic response was largest in the mid latitudes and dominated by range expansion, which resulted in the emergence of new assemblages without analogues in the glacial ocean. Our results indicate that the plankton response to global warming was spatially heterogeneous and did not track temperature change uniformly over the past 24,000 years. Climate change led to the establishment of new assemblages and possibly new ecological interactions, which suggests that current anthropogenic warming may lead to new, different plankton community composition.

Description: Many current challenges involve understanding the complex dynamical interplay between the constituents of systems. Typically, the number of such constituents is high, but only limited data sources on them are available. Conventional dynamical models of complex systems are rarely mathematically tractable and their numerical exploration suffers both from computational and data limitations. Here we review generalized modeling, an alternative approach for formulating dynamical models to gain insights into dynamics and bifurcations of uncertain systems. We argue that this approach deals elegantly with the uncertainties that exist in real world data and enables analytical insight or highly efficient numerical investigation. We provide a survey of recent successes of generalized modeling and a guide to the application of this modeling approach in future studies such as complex integrative ecological models.

Description: Numerical simulations indicate that extreme climate events (e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves) will increase in a warming world, putting enormous pressure on society and political decision-makers. To provide a long-term perspective on the variability of these extreme events, here we use a ~700 years tree-ring oxygen isotope chronology from Eastern Europe, in combination with paleo-reanalysis data, to show that the summer drying over Eastern Europe observed over the last ~150 years is to the best of our knowledge unprecedented over the last 700 years. This drying is driven by a change in the pressure patterns over Europe, characterized by a shift from zonal to a wavier flow around 1850CE, leading to extreme summer droughts and aridification. To our knowledge, this is the first and longest reconstruction of drought variability, based on stable oxygen isotopes in the tree-ring cellulose, for Eastern Europe, helping to fill a gap in the spatial coverage of paleoclimate reconstructions.

Description: In the Arctic, air temperatures are increasing and sea ice is declining, resulting in larger waves and a longer open water season, all of which intensify the thaw and erosion of ice-rich coasts. Climate change has been shown to increase the rate of Arctic coastal erosion, causing problems for Arctic cultural heritage, existing industrial, military, and civil infrastructure, as well as changes in nearshore biogeochemistry. Numerical models that reproduce historical and project future Arctic erosion rates are necessary to understand how further climate change will affect these problems, and no such model yet exists to simulate the physics of erosion on a pan-Arctic scale. We have coupled a bathystrophic storm surge model to a simplified physical erosion model of a permafrost coastline. This Arctic erosion model, called ArcticBeach v1.0, is a first step toward a physical parameterization of Arctic shoreline erosion for larger-scale models. It is forced by wind speed and direction, wave period and height, sea surface temperature, all of which are masked during times of sea ice cover near the coastline. Model tuning requires observed historical retreat rates (at least one value), as well as rough nearshore bathymetry. These parameters are already available on a pan-Arctic scale. The model is validated at three study sites at 1) Drew Point (DP), Alaska, 2) Mamontovy Khayata (MK), Siberia, and 3) Veslebogen Cliffs, Svalbard. Simulated cumulative retreat rates for DP and MK respectively (169 and 170 m) over the time periods studied at each site (2007–2016, and 1995–2018) are found to the same order of magnitude as observed cumulative retreat (172 and 120 m). The rocky Veslebogen cliffs have small observed cumulative retreat rates (0.05 m over 2014–2016), and our model was also able to reproduce this same order of magnitude of retreat (0.08 m). Given the large differences in geomorphology between the study sites, this study provides a proof-of-concept that ArcticBeach v1.0 can be applied on very different permafrost coastlines. ArcticBeach v1.0 provides a promising starting point to project retreat of Arctic shorelines, or to evaluate historical retreat in places that have had few observations.

Description: Over the past decade, a series of airborne experiments in the Arctic and Antarctica explored microwave emission from sea ice and ice sheets at frequencies from 0.5 to 2 GHz. The experiments were motivated by the fact that lower frequencies penetrate deeper into a frozen surface, thus offering the possibility to measure physical temperatures at great depths in ice sheets and, subsequently, other unique geophysical observables including sea ice salinity. These experiments were made feasible by recent engineering advances in electronics, antenna design, and noise removal algorithms when operating outside of protected bands in the electromagnetic spectrum. These technical advances permit a new type of radiometer that not only operates at low frequency, but also obtains continuous spectral information over the band from 0.5 to 2 GHz. Spectral measurements facilitate an understanding of the physical processes controlling emission and also support the interpretation of results from single frequency instruments. This paper reviews the development of low-frequency, wide band radiometry and its application to cryosphere science over the past 10 years. The paper summarizes the engineering design of an airborne instrument and the associated algorithms to mitigate radio frequency interference. Theoretical models of emission built around the morphologic and electrical properties of cryospheric components are also described that identify the dominant physical processes contributing to emission spectra. New inversion techniques for geophysical parameter retrieval are summarized for both Arctic and Antarctic scenarios. Examples that illustrate how the measurements are used to inform on glaciological problems are presented. The paper concludes with a description of new instrument concepts that are foreseen to extend the technology into operation from space.

Description: The original version of this Article contained an error in Fig. 4, in which the y-axis should read “INPs (L−1 of air)” instead of “INPs x 10−3 (L−1 of air)”. This has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Description: One of the major challenges facing global hydrodynamic tidal models is the modelling of the interaction between sea ice and tides in high-latitude waters. Recent studies have shown strong seasonal correlation between sea ice and tides. Hence, it is important to accurately model the effect of sea ice in a tidal model. Presence of sea ice leads to a frictional dissipation of tides. Most models either completely ignore sea ice or partly include it by assuming a fixed sea ice cover (landfast ice). However, sea ice can also be drifting and the nature of dissipation between drifting sea ice and tides is partly unknown. We assess the dissipation of tides due to free drift sea ice. In the absence of wind, this is negligible in the deeper and open ocean. For the shallow water regions, however, this dissipation is unknown. Here, we evaluate this dissipation for the Spitzbergen Shelf region using a beacon dataset showing strong free drift subdaily sea ice oscillations and a physics based point ice model. Two analyses were done which compared the model and observed motion. The analyses showed that for winds speeds below 8m/s and with low subdaily signals, the subdaily free drift sea ice motion is strongly connected to the tides and that the frictional dissipation is low. In the context of global tide and storm surge models, the dissipation from free drift sea ice on tides should be evaluated based on the region (deep ocean or shallow water) and existing wind conditions. In the presence of strong winds the dissipation between free drift sea ice and air can be significant on a subdaily scale even if there are no subdaily signals in the wind itself.

Description: Global biodiversity loss and mass extinction of species are two of the most critical environmental issues the world is currently facing, resulting in the disruption of various ecosystems central to environmental functions and human health. Microbiome-targeted interventions, such as probiotics and microbiome transplants, are emerging as potential options to reverse deterioration of biodiversity and increase the resilience of wildlife and ecosystems. However, the implementation of these interventions is urgently needed. We summarize the current concepts, bottlenecks and ethical aspects encompassing the careful and responsible management of ecosystem resources using the microbiome (termed microbiome stewardship) to rehabilitate organisms and ecosystem functions. We propose a real-world application framework to guide environmental and wildlife probiotic applications. This framework details steps that must be taken in the upscaling process while weighing risks against the high toll of inaction. In doing so, we draw parallels with other aspects of contemporary science moving swiftly in the face of urgent global challenges.

Description: One-quarter of photosynthesis-derived carbon on Earth rapidly cycles through a set of short-lived seawater metabolites that are generated from the activities of marine phytoplankton, bacteria, grazers and viruses. Here we discuss the sources of microbial metabolites in the surface ocean, their roles in ecology and biogeochemistry, and approaches that can be used to analyse them from chemistry, biology, modelling and data science. Although microbial-derived metabolites account for only a minor fraction of the total reservoir of marine dissolved organic carbon, their flux and fate underpins the central role of the ocean in sustaining life on Earth.

Description: Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal disturbances. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era (Year 1–present) and future megadroughts. Decadal variations in sea surface temperatures are the primary driver of megadroughts, with secondary contributions from radiative forcing and land–atmosphere interactions. Anthropogenic climate change has intensified ongoing megadroughts in south-western North America and across Chile and Argentina. Future megadroughts will be substantially warmer than past events, with this warming driving projected increases in megadrought risk and severity across many regions, including western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, extratropical South America, and Australia. However, several knowledge gaps currently undermine confidence in understanding past and future megadroughts. These gaps include a paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimate information over Africa, tropical South America and other regions; incomplete representations of internal variability and land surface processes in climate models; and the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to mitigate megadrought impacts. Addressing these deficiencies will be crucial for increasing confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and for resiliency planning.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. Systematic long-term studies on ecosystem dynamics are largely lacking from the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, although it is well recognized that they are indispensable to identify the ecological impacts and risks of environmental change. Here, we present a framework for establishing a long-term cross-disciplinary study on decadal timescales. We argue that the eastern Weddell Sea and the adjacent sea to the east, off Dronning Maud Land, is a particularly well suited area for such a study, since it is based on findings from previous expeditions to this region. Moreover, since climate and environmental change have so far been comparatively muted in this area, as in the eastern Antarctic in general, a systematic long-term study of its environmental and ecological state can provide a baseline of the current situation, which will be important for an assessment of future changes from their very onset, with consistent and comparable time series data underpinning and testing models and their projections. By establishing an Integrated East Antarctic Marine Research (IEAMaR) observatory, long-term changes in ocean dynamics, geochemistry, biodiversity, and ecosystem functions and services will be systematically explored and mapped through regular autonomous and ship-based synoptic surveys. An associated long-term ecological research (LTER) programme, including experimental and modelling work, will allow for studying climate-driven ecosystem changes and interactions with impacts arising from other anthropogenic activities. This integrative approach will provide a level of long-term data availability and ecosystem understanding that are imperative to determine, understand, and project the consequences of climate change and support a sound science-informed management of future conservation efforts in the Southern Ocean. 〈/jats:p〉

Description: Beavers were not previously recognized as an Arctic species, and their engineering in the tundra is considered negligible. Recent findings suggest that beavers have moved into Arctic tundra regions and are controlling surface water dynamics, which strongly influence permafrost and landscape stability. Here we use 70 years of satellite images and aerial photography to show the scale and magnitude of northwestward beaver expansion in Alaska, indicated by the construction of over 10,000 beaver ponds in the Arctic tundra. The number of beaver ponds doubled in most areas between ~ 2003 and ~ 2017. Earlier stages of beaver engineering are evident in ~ 1980 imagery, and there is no evidence of beaver engineering in ~ 1952 imagery, consistent with observations from Indigenous communities describing the influx of beavers over the period. Rapidly expanding beaver engineering has created a tundra disturbance regime that appears to be thawing permafrost and exacerbating the effects of climate change.

Description: In the context of global warming, the melting of arctic permafrost raises the threat of a re-emergence of microorganisms some of which were shown to remain viable in ancient frozen soils for up to half a million years. In order to evaluate this risk, it is of interest to acquire a better knowledge of the composition of the microbial communities found in this understudied environment. Here we present a metagenomics analysis of 12 soil samples from Russian Arctic and subarctic pristine areas: Chukotka, Yakutia, and Kamchatka, including 9 permafrost samples collected at various depths. These large datasets (9.2 1011 total bp) were assembled (525,313 contigs 〉 5kb), their encoded protein contents predicted, then used to perform taxonomical assignments of bacterial, archaeal, and eukaryotic organisms, as well as DNA viruses. The various samples exhibited variable DNA contents and highly diverse taxonomic profiles showing no obvious relationship with their locations, depths or deposit ages. Bacteria represented the largely dominant DNA fraction (95%) in all samples, followed by archaea (3.2%), surprisingly little eukaryotes (0.5%), and viruses (0.4%). Although no common taxonomic pattern was identified, the samples shared unexpected high frequencies of β-lactamase genes, almost 0.9 copy/bacterial genome. In addition of known environmental threats, the particularly intense warming of the Arctic might thus enhance the spread of bacterial antibiotic resistances, today's major challenge in public health. β-lactamases were also observed at high frequency in other types of soils, suggesting their general role in the regulation of bacterial populations.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. Skillful sea ice drift forecasts are crucial for scientific mission planning and marine safety. Wind is the dominant driver of ice motion variability, but more slowly varying components of the climate system, in particular ice thickness and ocean currents, bear the potential to render ice drift more predictable than the wind. In this study, we provide the first assessment of Arctic sea ice drift predictability in four coupled general circulation models (GCMs), using a suite of “perfect-model” ensemble simulations. We find the position vector from Lagrangian trajectories of virtual buoys to remain predictable for at least a 90 (45) d lead time for initializations in January (July), reaching about 80 % of the position uncertainty of a climatological reference forecast. In contrast, the uncertainty in Eulerian drift vector predictions reaches the level of the climatological uncertainty within 4 weeks. Spatial patterns of uncertainty, varying with season and across models, develop in all investigated GCMs. For two models providing near-surface wind data (AWI-CM1 and HadGEM1.2), we find spatial patterns and large fractions of the variance to be explained by wind vector uncertainty. The latter implies that sea ice drift is only marginally more predictable than wind. Nevertheless, particularly one of the four models (GFDL-CM3) shows a significant correlation of up to −0.85 between initial ice thickness and target position uncertainty in large parts of the Arctic. Our results provide a first assessment of the inherent predictability of ice motion in coupled climate models; they can be used to put current real-world forecast skill into perspective and highlight the model diversity of sea ice drift predictability. 〈/jats:p〉

Description: Arctic warming is causing ancient perennially frozen ground (permafrost) to thaw, resulting in ground collapse, and reshaping of landscapes. This threatens Arctic peoples' infrastructure, cultural sites, and land-based natural resources. Terrestrial permafrost thaw and ongoing intensification of hydrological cycles also enhance the amount and alter the type of organic carbon (OC) delivered from land to Arctic nearshore environments. These changes may affect coastal processes, food web dynamics and marine resources on which many traditional ways of life rely. Here, we examine how future projected increases in runoff and permafrost thaw from two permafrost-dominated Siberian watersheds—the Kolyma and Lena, may alter carbon turnover rates and OC distributions through river networks. We demonstrate that the unique composition of terrestrial permafrost-derived OC can cause significant increases to aquatic carbon degradation rates (20 to 60% faster rates with 1% permafrost OC). We compile results on aquatic OC degradation and examine how strengthening Arctic hydrological cycles may increase the connectivity between terrestrial landscapes and receiving nearshore ecosystems, with potential ramifications for coastal carbon budgets and ecosystem structure. To address the future challenges Arctic coastal communities will face, we argue that it will become essential to consider how nearshore ecosystems will respond to changing coastal inputs and identify how these may affect the resiliency and availability of essential food resources.

Description: The Northeast Greenland shelf (NEGS) is a recipient of Polar Water (PW) from the Arctic Ocean, Greenland Ice Sheet melt, and Atlantic Water (AW). Here, we compile hydrographical measurements to quantify long-term changes in fjords and coastal waters. We find a profound change in the vertical distribution of water masses, with AW shoaling 〉60 m and PW thinning 〉50 m since early 2000’s. The properties of these waters have also changed. AW is now 1 °C warmer and the salinity of surface waters and PW are 1.8 and 0.68 lower, respectively. The AW changes have substantially weakened stratification south of ~74°N, indicating increased accessibility of heat and potentially nutrients associated with AW. The Atlantification earlier reported for the eastern Fram Strait and Barents Sea region has also propagated to the NEGS. The increased presence of AW, is an important driver for regional change leading to a likely shift in ecosystem structure and function.

Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉〈jats:p〉The Digital Earth project aimed for the integration of data science and Earth science. Here, we reflect on the main lessons learned that include the need for interdisciplinary collaboration, thinking out of the box, the concept of ‘thinking in workflows’ and models for the sustainable implementation of scientific software, data infrastructure and policies.〈/jats:p〉

Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉〈jats:p〉Data-driven science has turned into a fourth fundamental paradigm of performing research. Earth System Science, following a holistic approach in unraveling the complex network of processes and interactions shaping system Earth, particularly profits from embracing data-driven approaches next to observation and modeling. At the end, increasing digitalization of Earth sciences will lead to cultural transformation towards a Digital Earth Culture.〈/jats:p〉

Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉〈jats:p〉Digital Earth is a project funded by the German Helmholtz Association with all centers of the research field Earth and Environment involved. The main goal of the Digital Earth project is to develop and bundle data science methods in extendable and maintainable scientific workflows that enable natural scientists in collaboration with data scientists to achieve a deeper understanding of the Earth system. This has been achieved by developing solutions for data analysis and exploration with visual and computational approaches with data obtained in a SMART monitoring approach and modeling studies, accompanied by a continuous evaluation of the collaboration processes. In this chapter, the history, setup, and focus of the Digital Earth project are described.〈/jats:p〉

Description: Animal behavior in space and time is structured by the perceived day/night cycle. However, this is modified by the animals’ own movement within its habitat, creating a realized diel light niche (RDLN). To understand the RDLN, we investigated the light as experienced by zooplankton undergoing synchronized diel vertical migration (DVM) in an Arctic fjord around the spring equinox. We reveal a highly dampened light cycle with diel changes being about two orders of magnitude smaller compared to the surface or a static depth. The RDLN is further characterized by unique wavelength-specific irradiance cycles. We discuss the relevance of RDLNs for animal adaptations and interactions, as well as implications for circadian clock entrainment in the wild and laboratory.

Description: The moon’s monthly cycle synchronizes reproduction in countless marine organisms. The mass-spawning bristle worm Platynereis dumerilii uses an endogenous monthly oscillator set by full moon to phase reproduction to specific days. But how do organisms recognize specific moon phases? We uncover that the light receptor L-Cryptochrome (L-Cry) discriminates between different moonlight durations, as well as between sun- and moonlight. A biochemical characterization of purified L-Cry protein, exposed to naturalistic sun- or moonlight, reveals the formation of distinct sun- and moonlight states characterized by different photoreduction- and recovery kinetics of L-Cry’s cofactor Flavin Adenine Dinucleotide. In Platynereis, L-Cry’s sun- versus moonlight states correlate with distinct subcellular localizations, indicating different signaling. In contrast, r-Opsin1, the most abundant ocular opsin, is not required for monthly oscillator entrainment. Our work reveals a photo-ecological concept for natural light interpretation involving a “valence interpreter” that provides entraining photoreceptor(s) with light source and moon phase information.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. Boreal forests of Siberia play a relevant role in the global carbon cycle. However, global warming threatens the existence of summergreen larch-dominated ecosystems, likely enabling a transition to evergreen tree taxa with deeper active layers. Complex permafrost–vegetation interactions make it uncertain whether these ecosystems could develop into a carbon source rather than continuing atmospheric carbon sequestration under global warming. Consequently, shedding light on the role of current and future active layer dynamics and the feedbacks with the apparent tree species is crucial to predict boreal forest transition dynamics and thus for aboveground forest biomass and carbon stock developments. Hence, we established a coupled model version amalgamating a one-dimensional permafrost multilayer forest land-surface model (CryoGrid) with LAVESI, an individual-based and spatially explicit forest model for larch species (Larix Mill.), extended for this study by including other relevant Siberian forest species and explicit terrain. Following parameterization, we ran simulations with the coupled version to the near future to 2030 with a mild climate-warming scenario. We focus on three regions covering a gradient of summergreen forests in the east at Spasskaya Pad, mixed summergreen–evergreen forests close to Nyurba, and the warmest area at Lake Khamra in the southeast of Yakutia, Russia. Coupled simulations were run with the newly implemented boreal forest species and compared to runs allowing only one species at a time, as well as to simulations using just LAVESI. Results reveal that the coupled version corrects for overestimation of active layer thickness (ALT) and soil moisture, and large differences in established forests are simulated. We conclude that the coupled version can simulate the complex environment of eastern Siberia by reproducing vegetation patterns, making it an excellent tool to disentangle processes driving boreal forest dynamics. 〈/jats:p〉

Description: The SiDroForest (Siberian drone-mapped forest inventory) data collection is an attempt to remedy the scarcity of forest structure data in the circumboreal region by providing adjusted and labeled tree-level and vegetation plot-level data for machine learning and upscaling purposes. We present datasets of vegetation composition and tree and plot level forest structure for two important vegetation transition zones in Siberia, Russia; the summergreen–evergreen transition zone in Central Yakutia and the tundra–taiga transition zone in Chukotka (NE Siberia). The SiDroForest data collection consists of four datasets that contain different complementary data types that together support in-depth analyses from different perspectives of Siberian Forest plot data for multi-purpose applications. i. Dataset 1 provides unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-borne data products covering the vegetation plots surveyed during fieldwork (Kruse et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.933263). The dataset includes structure-from-motion (SfM) point clouds and red–green–blue (RGB) and red–green–near-infrared (RGN) orthomosaics. From the orthomosaics, point-cloud products were created such as the digital elevation model (DEM), canopy height model (CHM), digital surface model (DSM) and the digital terrain model (DTM). The point-cloud products provide information on the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the forest at each plot. ii. Dataset 2 contains spatial data in the form of point and polygon shapefiles of 872 individually labeled trees and shrubs that were recorded during fieldwork at the same vegetation plots (van Geffen et al., 2021c, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.932821). The dataset contains information on tree height, crown diameter, and species type. These tree and shrub individually labeled point and polygon shapefiles were generated on top of the RGB UVA orthoimages. The individual tree information collected during the expedition such as tree height, crown diameter, and vitality are provided in table format. This dataset can be used to link individual information on trees to the location of the specific tree in the SfM point clouds, providing for example, opportunity to validate the extracted tree height from the first dataset. The dataset provides unique insights into the current state of individual trees and shrubs and allows for monitoring the effects of climate change on these individuals in the future. iii. Dataset 3 contains a synthesis of 10 000 generated images and masks that have the tree crowns of two species of larch (Larix gmelinii and Larix cajanderi) automatically extracted from the RGB UAV images in the common objects in context (COCO) format (van Geffen et al., 2021a, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.932795). As machine-learning algorithms need a large dataset to train on, the synthetic dataset was specifically created to be used for machine-learning algorithms to detect Siberian larch species. iv. Dataset 4 contains Sentinel-2 (S-2) Level-2 bottom-of-atmosphere processed labeled image patches with seasonal information and annotated vegetation categories covering the vegetation plots (van Geffen et al., 2021b, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.933268). The dataset is created with the aim of providing a small ready-to-use validation and training dataset to be used in various vegetation-related machine-learning tasks. It enhances the data collection as it allows classification of a larger area with the provided vegetation classes. The SiDroForest data collection serves a variety of user communities. The detailed vegetation cover and structure information in the first two datasets are of use for ecological applications, on one hand for summergreen and evergreen needle-leaf forests and also for tundra–taiga ecotones. Datasets 1 and 2 further support the generation and validation of land cover remote-sensing products in radar and optical remote sensing. In addition to providing information on forest structure and vegetation composition of the vegetation plots, the third and fourth datasets are prepared as training and validation data for machine-learning purposes. For example, the synthetic tree-crown dataset is generated from the raw UAV images and optimized to be used in neural networks. Furthermore, the fourth SiDroForest dataset contains S-2 labeled image patches processed to a high standard that provide training data on vegetation class categories for machine-learning classification with JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) labels provided. The SiDroForest data collection adds unique insights into remote hard-to-reach circumboreal forest regions.

Description: How fast the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forest biome tracks strongly warming climates is largely unknown. Regional studies reveal lags between decades and millennia. Here we report a conundrum: Deglacial forest expansion in the NH extra-tropics occurs approximately 4000 years earlier in a transient MPI-ESM1.2 simulation than shown by pollen-based biome reconstructions. Shortcomings in the model and the reconstructions could both contribute to this mismatch, leaving the underlying causes unresolved. The simulated vegetation responds within decades to simulated climate changes, which agree with pollen-independent reconstructions. Thus, we can exclude climate biases as main driver for differences. Instead, the mismatch points at a multi-millennial disequilibrium of the NH forest biome to the climate signal. Therefore, the evaluation of time-slice simulations in strongly changing climates with pollen records should be critically reassessed. Our results imply that NH forests may be responding much slower to ongoing climate changes than Earth System Models predict.

Description: The Last Interglacial (~129,000–116,000 years ago) is the most recent geologic period with a warmer-than-present climate. Proxy-based temperature reconstructions from this interval can help contextualize natural climate variability in our currently warming world, especially if they can define changes on decadal timescales. Here, we established a ~4.800-year-long record of sea surface temperature (SST) variability from the eastern Mediterranean Sea at 1–4-year resolution by applying mass spectrometry imaging of long-chain alkenones to a finely laminated organic-matter-rich sapropel deposited during the Last Interglacial. We observe the highest amplitude of decadal variability in the early stage of sapropel deposition, plausibly due to reduced vertical mixing of the highly stratified water column. With the subsequent reorganization of oceanographic conditions in the later stage of sapropel deposition, when SST forcing resembled the modern situation, we observe that the maximum amplitude of reconstructed decadal variability did not exceed the range of the recent period of warming climate. The more gradual, centennial SST trends reveal that the maximal centennial scale SST increase in our Last Interglacial record is below the projected temperature warming in the twenty-first century.

Description: Climate change is expected to cause major shifts in boreal forests which are in vast areas of Siberia dominated by two species of the deciduous needle tree larch (Larix). The species differ markedly in their ecosystem functions, thus shifts in their respective ranges are of global relevance. However, drivers of species distribution are not well understood, in part because paleoecological data at species level are lacking. This study tracks Larix species distribution in time and space using target enrichment on sedimentary ancient DNA extracts from eight lakes across Siberia. We discovered that Larix sibirica, presently dominating in western Siberia, likely migrated to its northern distribution area only in the Holocene at around 10,000 years before present (ka BP), and had a much wider eastern distribution around 33 ka BP. Samples dated to the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21 ka BP), consistently show genotypes of L. gmelinii. Our results suggest climate as a strong determinant of species distribution in Larix and provide temporal and spatial data for species projection in a changing climate.

Description: Wildfires play an essential role in the ecology of boreal forests. In eastern Siberia, fire activity has been increasing in recent years, challenging the livelihoods of local communities. Intensifying fire regimes also increase disturbance pressure on the boreal forests, which currently protect the permafrost beneath from accelerated degradation. However, long-term relationships between changes in fire regime and forest structure remain largely unknown. We assess past fire-vegetation feedbacks using sedimentary proxy records from Lake Satagay, Central Yakutia, Siberia, covering the past c. 10,800 years. Results from macroscopic and microscopic charcoal analyses indicate high amounts of burnt biomass during the Early Holocene, and that the present-day, low-severity surface fire regime has been in place since c. 4,500 years before present. A pollen-based quantitative reconstruction of vegetation cover and a terrestrial plant record based on sedimentary ancient DNA metabarcoding suggest a pronounced shift in forest structure toward the Late Holocene. Whereas the Early Holocene was characterized by postglacial open larch-birch woodlands, forest structure changed toward the modern, mixed larch-dominated closed-canopy forest during the Mid-Holocene. We propose a potential relationship between open woodlands and high amounts of burnt biomass, as well as a mediating effect of dense larch forest on the climate-driven intensification of fire regimes. Considering the anticipated increase in forest disturbances (droughts, insect invasions, and wildfires), higher tree mortality may force the modern state of the forest to shift toward an open woodland state comparable to the Early Holocene. Such a shift in forest structure may result in a positive feedback on currently intensifying wildfires. These new long-term data improve our understanding of millennial-scale fire regime changes and their relationships to changes of vegetation in Central Yakutia, where the local population is already being confronted with intensifying wildfire seasons.