Publication Date:
2022-02-17
Description:
Forecasting earthquakes is a challenging scientific task, due to the intrinsic complexity of the
problem, as well as to the limited size and different accuracy of available observations. During the last
decades increasing efforts have been devoted by geophysical research in an attempt to answer the
following fundamental questions: 1) Which are the physical processes that take place in the Earth
crust that are relevant for an earthquake to nucleate? 2) How can we observe, describe and model
them statistically and physically? Although a clear univocal picture is still missing, a large amount of
data and long-term observations accumulated over the time, as well as new methodological
approaches, which eventually allow for development and verification of theoretical models.
Observations and physical models suggest that several processes in the Earth’s lithosphere are
predictable, but after substantial averaging and up to a limit. Accordingly, earthquake forecasting
requires a holistic approach, and should be posed as an integrated, multi-scale process, narrowing
down the magnitude range, territory, and time of expectation, all within the limits imposed by
physics and data uncertainties. The understanding of governing laws, from long-term tectonic
loading and slow nucleation to rapid rupture propagation, may contribute to estimate the stress state
and temporal evolution of geophysical observables around seismically active areas.
Description:
Published
Description:
793911
Description:
7T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e "precursori"
Description:
JCR Journal
Keywords:
earthquake preparation processes, stress field variations, earthquake source physics, earthquake forecasting, test site areas
;
04.07. Tectonophysics
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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