ALBERT

Description: In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model.

Description: Published

Description: SE220

Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Of all the socio-economic changes caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the disruption to workforce organizations will probably leave the largest indelible mark. The way work will be organized in the future will be closely linked to the experience of work-ing under the same institution’s response to the pandemic. This paper aims to fill the gap in knowledge about smart working (SW) in public organizations, with a focus on the experience of the employees of two Italian research organizations, CNR and INGV. Analysing primary data, it explored and assessed how SW had been experi-enced following the implementation of governmental measures aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19

Description: Published

Description: 815–833

Description: 2TM. Divulgazione Scientifica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Data visualization, and to a lesser extent data sonification, are classic tools to the scientific community. However, these two approaches are very rarely combined, although they are highly complementary: our visual system is good at recognizing spatial patterns, whereas our auditory system is better tuned for temporal patterns. In this article, data representation methods are proposed that combine visualization, sonification, and spatial audio techniques, in order to optimize the user’s perception of spatial and temporal patterns in a single display, to increase the feeling of immersion, and to take advantage of multimodal integration mechanisms. Three seismic data sets are used to illustrate the methods, covering different physical phenomena, time scales, spatial distributions, and spatio-temporal dynamics. The methods are adapted to the specificities of each data set, and to the amount of information that the designer wants to display. This leads to further developments, namely the use of audification with two time scales, the switch from pure audification to time-modulated noise, and the switch from pure audification to sonic icons. First user feedback from live demonstrations indicates that the methods presented in this article seem to enhance the perception of spatio-temporal patterns, which is a key parameter to the understanding of seismically active systems, and a step towards apprehending the processes that drive this activity.

Description: Published

Description: 125–142

Description: 7T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e "precursori"

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Il presente lavoro raccoglie alcune esperienze di Progetti di Alternanza Scuola Lavoro (d’ora in poi ASL) realizzati dall’INGV negli anni scolastici dal 2015 al 2019 e dedicati al rischio sismico, alle scienze polari ed agli strumenti per la divulgazione scientifica. Le esperienze descrivono il lavoro realizzato da un gruppo di ricercatori INGV con competenze in diversi ambiti disciplinari (sismologia, geologia, vulcanologia fisica dell’atmosfera, psicologia) e in alcuni casi le attività sono state svolte in collaborazione con ricercatori di altri enti. Il gruppo di lavoro è composto da ricercatori che da molti anni dedicano parte del loro tempo-lavoro alle attività di divulgazione scientifica, ai progetti educativi, alla didattica della scienza. In una parola a quella che oggi rappresenta, per gli enti di ricerca, la “Terza missione”, ovvero l’insieme di tutte le attività finalizzate a creare una connessione bidirezionale tra il mondo della ricerca e la società. Ciò che ha caratterizzato l’approccio dei ricercatori INGV ai progetti ASL, sia nella fase di progettazione che di realizzazione, è la finalità di consentire agli studenti di vivere un’esperienza reale ed immersiva in un contesto di lavoro. E quindi l’opportunità di sperimentare capacità e abilità che caratterizzano il contesto organizzativo (diritti, doveri, responsabilità, impegni, regole), diversamente dal mondo della scuola. Il secondo aspetto al quale ci si è riferiti nella realizzazione dei progetti è quello di consentire agli studenti di esplorare, in particolare il contesto delle attività lavorative connesse al mondo della ricerca. Da questo punto di vista gli studenti hanno potuto acquisire conoscenze in ambiti tematici specifici, hanno avuto modo di sperimentare metodi e tecniche proprie del mondo della ricerca e di acquisire capacità e abilità trasversali come il lavoro in gruppo. Il contributo è organizzato in tre capitoli in relazione ai temi affrontati nei progetti. Nel primo sono riportate le schede dei tre progetti dedicate al tema Terremoto; nel secondo vengono descritti i due progetti dedicati alla Divulgazione Scientifica e nel terzo un progetto sulle Scienze Polari. Per rendere maggiormente fruibile la lettura, ogni progetto viene descritto attraverso una scheda sintetica che evidenza le caratteristiche principali: titolo, referenti INGV, studenti partecipanti, periodo, descrizione delle attività, obiettivi e considerazioni sull’esperienza. Nel capitolo conclusivo viene proposto un bilancio delle esperienze realizzate, evidenziando punti di forza e aree di miglioramento dei progetti, con la finalità di condividere suggerimenti ed idee per tracciare percorsi formativi maggiormente efficaci nel futuro.

Description: Published

Description: 119-131

Description: 2TM. Divulgazione Scientifica

Description: N/A or not JCR

Description: We present the commented transcription of three rare articles published in 19091910 by Father Atto Maccioni o.f.m. This friar is one of the least known among the many ecclesiastics who cultivated seismology from the 18th century onwards. Maccioni, from 1908 to 1926, managed a seismic observatory at the Sienese convent of the Osservanza. He devised an “Avvisatore”: a device equipped with a modified coherer with respect to those adopted in radiotelegraphic communications, aimed to detect natural radio signals associated with earthquakes. From the few available results it seems that the scholar obtained positive feedback, but the most interesting aspect of the story is that until now it was generally believed that this kind of research began only quite recently [Warwick, 1982]. On the contrary Maccioni may have been the first ever to study a possible electromagnetic precursor, more than a century ago.

Description: Presentiamo la trascrizione commentata di tre rari articoli pubblicati nel 19091910 da padre Atto Maccioni o.f.m., uno dei meno noti tra i tanti ecclesiastici che si sono occupati di sismologia dal XVIII secolo in poi. Maccioni, che dal 1908 al 1926 gestì un osservatorio sismico presso il convento senese dell’Osservanza, aveva ideato l’Avvisatore, un dispositivo munito di un coherer diverso da quelli radiotelegrafici e destinato a rilevare segnali radio naturali associati ai terremoti. Dai pochi risultati disponibili sembra che lo studioso abbia avuto dei riscontri positivi ma l’aspetto più interessante della vicenda è che finora si era creduto che ricerche di questo tipo fossero iniziate solo molto di recente [Warwick, 1982]. Invece Maccioni potrebbe essere stato il primo al mondo a studiare, più di un secolo fa, un ipotetico precursore elettromagnetico.

Description: Published

Description: 1-32

Description: 7T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e "precursori"

Description: 2TM. Divulgazione Scientifica

Description: N/A or not JCR

Description: The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period during which atmospheric CO2 levels were similar to recent historical values (∼400 ppm). Several proxy reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene show highly reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating an El Niño-like mean state. However, past modelling studies do not show these highly reduced gradients. Efforts to understand mid-Pliocene climate dynamics have led to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Results from the first phase (PlioMIP1) showed clear El Niño variability (albeit significantly reduced) and did not show the greatly reduced time-mean zonal SST gradient suggested by some of the proxies. In this work, we study El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, which consists of additional global coupled climate models and updated boundary conditions compared to PlioMIP1. We quantify ENSO amplitude, period, spatial structure and “flavour”, as well as the tropical Pacific annual mean state in mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial simulations. Results show a reduced ENSO amplitude in the model-ensemble mean (−24 %) with respect to the pre-industrial, with 15 out of 17 individual models showing such a reduction. Furthermore, the spectral power of this variability considerably decreases in the 3–4-year band. The spatial structure of the dominant empirical orthogonal function shows no particular change in the patterns of tropical Pacific variability in the model-ensemble mean, compared to the pre-industrial. Although the time-mean zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific decreases for 14 out of 17 models (0.2 ∘C reduction in the ensemble mean), there does not seem to be a correlation with the decrease in ENSO amplitude. The models showing the most “El Niño-like” mean state changes show a similar ENSO amplitude to that in the pre-industrial reference, while models showing more “La Niña-like” mean state changes generally show a large reduction in ENSO variability. The PlioMIP2 results show a reasonable agreement with both time-mean proxies indicating a reduced zonal SST gradient and reconstructions indicating a reduced, or similar, ENSO variability.

Description: The mid-Pliocene (∼3 Ma) is one of the most recent warm periods with high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and resulting high temperatures, and it is often cited as an analog for near-term future climate change. Here, we apply a moisture budget analysis to investigate the response of the large-scale hydrological cycle at low latitudes within a 13-model ensemble from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The results show that increased atmospheric moisture content within the mid-Pliocene ensemble (due to the thermodynamic effect) results in wetter conditions over the deep tropics, i.e., the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Maritime Continent, and drier conditions over the subtropics. Note that the dynamic effect plays a more important role than the thermodynamic effect in regional precipitation minus evaporation (PmE) changes (i.e., northward ITCZ shift and wetter northern Indian Ocean). The thermodynamic effect is offset to some extent by a dynamic effect involving a northward shift of the Hadley circulation that dries the deep tropics and moistens the subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., the subtropical Pacific). From the perspective of Earth's energy budget, the enhanced southward cross-equatorial atmospheric transport (0.22 PW), induced by the hemispheric asymmetries of the atmospheric energy, favors an approximately 1∘ northward shift of the ITCZ. The shift of the ITCZ reorganizes atmospheric circulation, favoring a northward shift of the Hadley circulation. In addition, the Walker circulation consistently shifts westward within PlioMIP2 models, leading to wetter conditions over the northern Indian Ocean. The PlioMIP2 ensemble highlights that an imbalance of interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate.

Description: Microplastic (MP) pollution has been found in the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica, but many local regions within this vast area remain uninvestigated. The remote Weddell Sea contributes to the global thermohaline circulation, and one of the two Antarctic gyres is located in that region. In the present study, we evaluate MP (〉300 μm) concentration and composition in surface (n = 34) and subsurface water samples (n = 79, ∼11.2 m depth) of the Weddell Sea. All putative MP were analyzed by attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy. MP was found in 65% of surface and 11.4% of subsurface samples, with mean (±standard deviation (SD)) concentrations of 0.01 (±0.01 SD) MP m–3 and 0.04 (±0.1 SD) MP m–3, respectively, being within the range of previously reported values for regions south of the Polar Front. Additionally, we aimed to determine whether identified paint fragments (n = 394) derive from the research vessel. Environmentally sampled fragments (n = 101) with similar ATR-FTIR spectra to reference paints from the research vessel and fresh paint references generated in the laboratory were further subjected to micro-X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (μXRF) to compare their elemental composition. This revealed that 45.5% of all recovered MP derived from vessel-induced contamination. However, 11% of the measured fragments could be distinguished from the reference paints via their elemental composition. This study demonstrates that differentiation based purely on visual characteristics and FTIR spectroscopy might not be sufficient for accurately determining sample contamination sources.

Description: Short-term earthquake clustering properties in the Eastern Aegean Sea (Greece) area investigated through the application of an epidemic type stochastic model (Epidemic Type Earthquake Sequence; ETES). The computations are performed in an earthquake catalog covering the period 2008 to 2020 and including 2332 events with a completeness threshold of Mc = 3.1 and separated into two subcatalogs. The first subcatalog is employed for the learning period, which is between 2008/01/01 and 2016/12/31 (N = 1197 earthquakes), and used for the model’s parameters estimation. The second subcatalog from 2017/01/01 to 2020/11/10 (1135 earthquakes), in which the sequences of 2017 Mw = 6.4 Lesvos, 2017 Mw = 6.6 Kos and 2020 Mw = 7.0 Samos main shocks are included, and used for a retrospective forecast testing based on the constructed model. The estimated model parameters imply a swarm like behavior, indicating the ability of earthquakes of small to moderate magnitude above Mc to produce their own offsprings, along with the stronger earthquakes. The retrospective evaluation of the model is examined in the three aftershock sequences, where lack of foreshocks resulted in low predictability of the mainshocks, with estimated daily probabilities around 10– 5. Immediately after the mainshocks occurrence the model adjusts with notable resemblance between the expected and observed aftershock rates, particularly for earthquakes with M ≥ 3.5.

Description: Published

Description: 1085–1099

Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The best chance to achieve a future disaster-resilient society is through risk education in School: it has a great potential to strengthen capacity of communities to mitigate risks. The KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) project took this opportunity and implemented a risk communication campaign for schools in Portugal, Italy, and Iceland. The idea was that suitably changes in people’s knowledge and attitude can trigger best practices. Crucial to reach such target is the raise of awareness on meaningful issues. The main challenge of the campaign was how to effectively address the mitigation of the vulnerability to earthquakes of non-structural elements, which is an issue considered to be of low priority even in the building regulations of many countries around the world. The campaign stood on a communication strategy that was systematized within a protocol, for 13- 15 years old students, that specifies goals, contents, learning strategy, support material, and relies on face-to-face intervention of scientists in the classroom. This protocol had training sessions bounded by assessment sessions, ex-ante and ex-post, that allowed to validate its efficacy. The training made large use of flipped learning and Episode of Situated Learning (EAS) strategy to raise student’s motivation and increase achievements. To ensure its replicability, the protocol was tested in zones matching a wide range of seismic hazard in Italy. The assessment showed the protocol be effective and ready for a wide dissemination.

Description: Published

Description: SE325

Description: 2TM. Divulgazione Scientifica

Description: JCR Journal