ALBERT

Description: The cold Last Glacial Maximum, around 20,000 years ago, provides a useful test case for evaluating whether climate models can simulate climate states distinct from the present. However, because of the indirect and uncertain nature of reconstructions of past environmental variables such as sea surface temperature, such evaluation remains ambiguous. Instead, here we evaluate simulations of Last Glacial Maximum climate by relying on the fundamental macroecological principle of decreasing community similarity with increasing thermal distance. Our analysis of planktonic foraminifera species assemblages from 647 sites reveals that the similarity-decay pattern that we obtain when the simulated ice age seawater temperatures are confronted with species assemblages from that time differs from the modern. This inconsistency between the modern temperature dependence of plankton species turnover and the simulations arises because the simulations show globally rather uniform cooling for the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas the species assemblages indicate stronger cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic. The implied steeper thermal gradient in the North Atlantic is more consistent with climate model simulations with a reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our approach demonstrates that macroecology can be used to robustly diagnose simulations of past climate and highlights the challenge of correctly resolving the spatial imprint of global change in climate models.

Description: Plant environmental DNA extracted from lacustrine sediments (sedimentary DNA, sedDNA) has been increasingly used to investigate past vegetation changes and human impacts at a high taxonomic resolution. However, the representation of vegetation communities surrounding the lake is still unclear. In this study, we compared plant sedDNA metabarcoding and pollen assemblages from 27 lake surface-sediment samples collected from alpine meadow on the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau to investigate the representation of sedDNA data. In general, the identified components of sedDNA are consistent with the counted pollen taxa and local plant communities. Relative to pollen identification, sedDNA data have higher taxonomic resolution, thus providing a potential approach for reconstructing past plant diversity. The sedDNA signal is strongly influenced by local plants while rarely affected by exogenous plants. Because of the overrepresentation of local plants and PCR bias, the abundance of sedDNA sequence types is very variable among sites, and should be treated with caution when investigating past vegetation cover and climate based on sedDNA data. Our finding suggests that sedDNA analysis can be a complementary approach for investigating the presence/absence of past plants and history of human land-use with higher taxonomic resolution.

Description: Black carbon emitted by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass has a net warming effect in the atmosphere and reduces the albedo when deposited on ice and snow; accurate knowledge of past emissions is essential to quantify and model associated global climate forcing. Although bottom-up inventories provide historical Black Carbon emission estimates that are widely used in Earth System Models, they are poorly constrained by observations prior to the late 20th century. Here we use an objective inversion technique based on detailed atmospheric transport and deposition modeling to reconstruct 1850 to 2000 emissions from thirteen Northern Hemisphere ice-core records. We find substantial discrepancies between reconstructed Black Carbon emissions and existing bottom-up inventories which do not fully capture the complex spatial-temporal emission patterns. Our findings imply changes to existing historical Black Carbon radiative forcing estimates are necessary, with potential implications for observation-constrained climate sensitivity.

Description: Sea ice is a key factor for the functioning and services provided by polar marine ecosystems. However, ecosystem responses to sea-ice loss are largely unknown because time-series data are lacking. Here, we use shotgun metagenomics of marine sedimentary ancient DNA off Kamchatka (Western Bering Sea) covering the last ~20,000 years. We traced shifts from a sea ice-adapted late-glacial ecosystem, characterized by diatoms, copepods, and codfish to an ice-free Holocene characterized by cyanobacteria, salmon, and herring. By providing information about marine ecosystem dynamics across a broad taxonomic spectrum, our data show that ancient DNA will be an important new tool in identifying long-term ecosystem responses to climate transitions for improvements of ocean and cryosphere risk assessments. We conclude that continuing sea-ice decline on the northern Bering Sea shelf might impact on carbon export and disrupt benthic food supply and could allow for a northward expansion of salmon and Pacific herring.

Description: Sedimentary DNA-based studies revealed the effects of human activity on lake cyanobacteria communities over the last centuries, yet we continue to lack information over longer timescales. Here, we apply high-resolution molecular analyses on sedimentary ancient DNA to reconstruct the history of cyanobacteria throughout the Holocene in a lake in north-eastern Germany. We find a substantial increase in cyanobacteria abundance coinciding with deforestation during the early Bronze Age around 4000 years ago, suggesting increased nutrient supply to the lake by local communities settling on the lakeshore. The next substantial human-driven increase in cyanobacteria abundance occurred only about a century ago due to intensified agricultural fertilisation which caused the dominance of potentially toxic taxa (e.g., Aphanizomenon). Our study provides evidence that humans began to locally impact lake ecology much earlier than previously assumed. Consequently, managing aquatic systems today requires awareness of the legacy of human influence dating back potentially several millennia.

Description: In Central Yakutia (Siberia) livelihoods of local communities depend on alaas (thermokarst depression) landscapes and the lakes within. Development and dynamics of these alaas lakes are closely connected to climate change, permafrost thawing, catchment conditions, and land use. To reconstruct lake development throughout the Holocene we analyze sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) and biogeochemistry from a sediment core from Lake Satagay, spanning the last c. 10,800 calibrated years before present (cal yrs BP). SedaDNA of diatoms and macrophytes and microfossil diatom analysis reveal lake formation earlier than 10,700 cal yrs BP. The sedaDNA approach detected 42 amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) of diatom taxa, one ASV of Eustigmatophyceae (Nannochloropsis), and 12 ASVs of macrophytes. We relate diatom and macrophyte community changes to climate-driven shifts in water level and mineral and organic input, which result in variable water conductivity, in-lake productivity, and sediment deposition. We detect a higher lake level and water conductivity in the Early Holocene (c. 10,700–7000 cal yrs BP) compared to other periods, supported by the dominance of Stephanodiscus sp. and Stuckenia pectinata. Further climate warming towards the Mid-Holocene (7000–4700 cal yrs BP) led to a shallowing of Lake Satagay, an increase of the submerged macrophyte Ceratophyllum, and a decline of planktonic diatoms. In the Late Holocene (c. 4700 cal yrs BP–present) stable shallow water conditions are confirmed by small fragilarioid and staurosiroid diatoms dominating the lake. Lake Satagay has not yet reached the final stage of alaas development, but satellite imagery shows an intensification of anthropogenic land use, which in combination with future warming will likely result in a rapid desiccation of the lake.

Description: Seagrass meadows have a disproportionally high organic carbon (Corg) storage potential within their sediments and thus can play a role in climate change mitigation via their conservation and restoration. However, high spatial heterogeneity is observed in Corg, with wide differences seen globally, regionally, and even locally (within a seagrass meadow). Consequently, it is difficult to determine their contributions to the national remaining carbon dioxide (CO2) budget without introducing a large degree of uncertainty. To address this spatial heterogeneity, we sampled 20 locations across the German Baltic Sea to quantify Corg stocks and sources in Zostera marina seagrass-vegetated and adjacent unvegetated sediments. To predict and integrate the Corg inventory in space, we measured the physical (seawater depth, sediment grain size, current velocity at the seafloor, anthropogenic inputs) and biological (seagrass complexity) environments to determine regional and local drivers of Corg variation. Here, we show that seagrass meadows in Germany constitute a significant Corg stock, storing on average 7,785 g C/m2, 13 times greater than meadows from other parts of the Baltic Sea, and fourfold richer than adjacent unvegetated sediments. Stocks were highly heterogenous; they differed widely between (by 10-fold) and even within (by 3- to 55-fold) sites. Regionally, Corg was controlled by seagrass complexity, fine sediment fraction, and seawater depth. Autochthonous material contributed to 78% of the total Corg in seagrass-vegetated sediments, and the remaining 22% originated from allochthonous sources (phytoplankton and macroalgae). However, relic terrestrial peatland material, deposited approximately 6,000 years BP during the last deglaciation, was an unexpected and significant source of Corg. Collectively, German seagrasses in the Baltic Sea are preventing 8.14 Mt of future CO2 emissions. Because Corg is mostly produced on-site and not imported from outside the meadow boundaries, the richness of this pool may be contingent on seagrass habitat health. Disturbance of this Corg stock could act as a source of CO2 emissions. However, the high spatial heterogeneity warrants site-specific investigations to obtain accurate estimates of blue carbon and a need to consider millennial timescale deposits of Corg beneath seagrass meadows in Germany and potentially other parts of the southwestern Baltic Sea.

Description: We contend that ocean turbulent fluxes should be included in the list of Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) created by the Global Ocean Observing System. This list aims to identify variables that are essential to observe to inform policy and maintain a healthy and resilient ocean. Diapycnal turbulent fluxes quantify the rates of exchange of tracers (such as temperature, salinity, density or nutrients, all of which are already EOVs) across a density layer. Measuring them is necessary to close the tracer concentration budgets of these quantities. Measuring turbulent fluxes of buoyancy (Jb), heat (Jq), salinity (JS) or any other tracer requires either synchronous microscale (a few centimeters) measurements of both the vector velocity and the scalar (e.g., temperature) to produce time series of the highly correlated perturbations of the two variables, or microscale measurements of turbulent dissipation rates of kinetic energy (ϵ) and of thermal/salinity/tracer variance (χ), from which fluxes can be derived. Unlike isopycnal turbulent fluxes, which are dominated by the mesoscale (tens of kilometers), microscale diapycnal fluxes cannot be derived as the product of existing EOVs, but rather require observations at the appropriate scales. The instrumentation, standardization of measurement practices, and data coordination of turbulence observations have advanced greatly in the past decade and are becoming increasingly robust. With more routine measurements, we can begin to unravel the relationships between physical mixing processes and ecosystem health. In addition to laying out the scientific relevance of the turbulent diapycnal fluxes, this review also compiles the current developments steering the community toward such routine measurements, strengthening the case for registering the turbulent diapycnal fluxes as an pilot Essential Ocean Variable.

Description: The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to strengthen the global response to climate change, and to maintain an average global temperature well below 2 °C, with aspirations towards 1.5 °C, by means of balancing sources and sinks of greenhouse gas emissions. Following this, the importance of carbon dioxide removal in global emission pathways has been further emphasized, and Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) that capture carbon from the atmosphere and remove it from the system have been put in the spotlight. NETs range from innovative, engineered technologies, to well-known approaches like afforestation/reforestation. These technologies essentially compensate for a shrinking carbon budget coupled with hard-to-abate future emissions, and a historical lack of action. However, none has been deployed at scales close to what is envisioned in emission pathways in line with the Paris Agreement goals. To understand the potential contribution of NETs to meet global emission goals, we need to better understand opportunities and constraints for deploying NETs on a national level. We examine 17 Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), and discuss them in the context of available NETs feasibility assessments. Our mapping shows that most countries include NETs in their long-term strategies, and that enhancement of natural sinks is the most dominating type of NET in these strategies. In line with many feasibility assessments, LT-LEDS focus on technical and biophysical considerations, and neglect socio-cultural dimensions. We suggest that feasibility assessments at the national level need to be more holistic; context-specific and comprehensive in terms of aspects assessed.