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  • Articles  (562)
  • Institute of Physics (IOP)  (562)
  • Public Library of Science (PLoS)
  • 2015-2019  (562)
  • 1945-1949
  • 2018  (562)
  • Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering  (562)
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  • Articles  (562)
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  • 2015-2019  (562)
  • 1945-1949
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  • 1
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    Camouflaged as degraded wax: hygroscopic aerosols contribute to leaf desiccation, tree mortality, and forest decline (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-07-26
    Description: Some 40 years ago, air pollution caused widespread forest decline in Central Europe and eastern North America. More recently, high levels of tree mortality worldwide are thought to be driven by rising temperatures and increasing atmospheric drought. A neglected factor, possibly contributing to both phenomena, is the foliar accumulation of hygroscopic aerosols. Recent experiments with experimentally added aerosols revealed that foliar aerosol accumulation can (i) create the microscopic impression of ‘wax degradation’, considered an important proxy of forest decline associated with air pollution, though the mechanism remains unexplained; and (ii) increase epidermal minimum conductance ( g min ), a measure of cuticular permeability and completeness of stomatal closure—both could lead to reduced drought tolerance. Here, those studies with applied aerosol are extended by addressing plant responses to reduction of ambient aerosol. Scots pine, silver fir, and com...
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  • 2
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    Large-scale, probabilistic salinity mapping using airborne electromagnetics for groundwater management in Zeeland, the Netherlands (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-07-28
    Description: Seawater intrusion has often resulted in scarce fresh groundwater resources in coastal lowlands. Careful management is essential to avoid the overexploitation of these vulnerable fresh groundwater resources, requiring detailed information on their spatial occurrence. Airborne electromagnetics (EM) has proved a valuable tool for efficient mapping of ground conductivity, as a proxy for fresh groundwater resources. Stakeholders are, however, interested in groundwater salinity, necessitating a translation of ground conductivity to groundwater salinity. This paper presents a methodology to construct a high-resolution (50 × 50 × 0.5 m 3 ) 3D voxel model of groundwater chloride concentration probability, based on a large-scale (1800 km 2 , 9640 flight line kilometres) airborne EM survey in the province of Zeeland, the Netherlands. Groundwater chloride concentration was obtained by combining pedotransfer functions with detailed lithological information. The methodology...
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  • 3
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    The roles of the metallurgy, nonmetal products and chemical industry sectors in air pollutant emissions in China (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-08-01
    Description: The metallurgy, nonmetal products and chemical industry sectors (MN&C) are the three major industrial sources of air pollutants in China. Previous studies have focused on calculating emissions from MN&C via production-based accounting and identifying the drivers of MN&C using consumption-based accounting. However, these previous studies did not discuss how the total outputs from MN&C upstream and downstream industries influence air pollutant emissions. In this study, we use a pure backward linkage (PBL) method to quantify emissions from industries upstream of MN&C and to evaluate how the downstream industries drive the outputs of MN&C in China. We find that the emissions from industries upstream of MN&C are generally higher than the production-based emissions of MN&C. In particular, the chemical industry largely increased its contribution to air pollution according to the PBL method. Furthermore, much of upstream emissions of MN&C are embodied...
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  • 4
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    Changes in rainfed and irrigated crop yield response to climate in the western US (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-12
    Description: As the global population increases and the climate changes, ensuring a secure food supply is increasingly important. One strategy is irrigation, which allows for crops to be grown outside their optimal climate growing regions and which buffers against climate variability. Although irrigation is a positive climate adaptation mechanism for agriculture, it has a potentially negative effect on water resources as it can lead to groundwater depletion and diminished surface water supplies. This study quantifies how crop yields are affected by climate variability and extremes and the impact of irrigation on crop yield increases under various growing-season climate conditions. To do this, we use historical climate data and county-level rainfed and irrigated crop yields for maize, soybean, winter and spring wheat over the US to analyze the relationship between climate, crop yields, and irrigation. We find that there are optimal climates, specific to each crop, where irrigation provides a ...
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  • 5
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    A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-12
    Description: Climate change is expected to impact the habitability of many places around the world in significant and unprecedented ways in the coming decades. While previous studies have provided estimates of populations potentially exposed to various climate impacts, little work has been done to assess the number of people that may actually be displaced or where they will choose to go. Here we modify a diffusion-based model of human mobility in combination with population, geographic, and climatic data to estimate the sources, destinations, and flux of potential migrants as driven by sea level rise (SLR) in Bangladesh in the years 2050 and 2100. Using only maps of population and elevation, we predict that 0.9 million people (by year 2050) to 2.1 million people (by year 2100) could be displaced by direct inundation and that almost all of this movement will occur locally within the southern half of the country. We also find that destination locations should anticipate substantial additional ...
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  • 6
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    Integrated human-earth system modeling—state of the science and future directions (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-12
    Description: Research on humans and the Earth system has historically occurred separately, with different teams and models devoted to each. Increasingly, however, these communities and models are becoming intricately linked. In this review, we survey the literature on integrated human-Earth system models, quantify the direction and strength of feedbacks in those models, and put them in context of other, more frequently considered, feedbacks in the Earth system. We find that such feedbacks have the potential to alter both human and Earth systems; however, there is significant uncertainty in these results, and the number of truly integrated studies remains small. More research, more models, and more studies are needed to robustly quantify the sign and magnitude of human-Earth system feedbacks. Integrating human and earth models entails significant complexity and cost, and researchers should carefully assess the costs and benefits of doing so with respect to the object of study.
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  • 7
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    Corrigendum: The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions (2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 [http://https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7541] 091001 ) (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-14
    Description: Wynes and Nicholas (2017) argue that the most effective action to reduce individual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is to have one fewer child. We raise methodological concerns about the way in which the authors attribute responsibility for emissions: they rely on multiple counting when calculating the emissions of future generations, and they exclude scenarios in which global emission trajectories become net-zero or negative. This may distort recommendations from policy makers and educators who rely on their study. We propose an alternative way of attributing responsibility that avoids multiple counting. Investigating the implications of having children under this proposal with regards to the full range of different scenarios, including likelihood analyses, calls for further studies.
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  • 8
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    Satellite detection of cover crops and their effects on crop yield in the Midwestern United States (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-14
    Description: The practice of planting winter cover crops has seen renewed interest as a solution to environmental issues with the modern maize- and soybean-dominated row crop production system of the US Midwest. We examine whether cover cropping patterns can be assessed at scale using publicly available satellite data, creating a classifier with 91.5% accuracy (.68 kappa). We then use this classifier to examine spatial and temporal trends in cover crop occurrence on maize and soybean fields in the Midwest since 2008, finding that despite increased talk about and funding for cover crops as well as a 94% increase in cover crop acres planted from 2008–2016, increases in winter vegetation have been more modest. Finally, we combine cover cropping with satellite-predicted yields, finding that cover crops are associated with low relative maize and soybean production and poor soil quality, consistent with farmers adopting the practice on fields most in need of purported cover crop benefits. When con...
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  • 9
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    Comment on ‘The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions’ (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-14
    Description: Wynes and Nicholas (2017a Environ. Res. Lett. 12 1–9) recently published an article that reviewed academic and grey literature to identify the most impactful individual actions for reducing carbon emissions in developed countries, identifying having ‘one fewer child’ as by far the most impactful action. This action was recommended with little context considering its controversial nature. We argue that there are three issue-areas that Wynes and Nicholas should have engaged with to improve the clarity of their recommendations and reduced the potential for misunderstanding, which are (1) the extent to which individual actions in one’s private life can address climate change in relation to collective actions and actions in the professional sphere (2) the role of overconsumption in driving climate change and (3) the extent to which family planning is a human right. We also suggest that engagement with these issue-areas are a step towards a better practice in academic wr...
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  • 10
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    Renewable energy alternatives to mega hydropower: a case study of Inga 3 for Southern Africa (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-06
    Description: We assess the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of renewable energy alternatives to Inga 3, a 4.8-GW hydropower project on the Congo River, to serve the energy needs of the host country, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and the main buyer, South Africa. To account for a key uncertainty in the literature regarding the additional economic impacts of managing variable wind and solar electricity, we built a spatially and temporally detailed power system investment model for South Africa. We find that a mix of wind, solar photovoltaics, and some natural gas is more cost-effective than Inga 3 to meet future demand except in scenarios with pessimistic assumptions about wind technology performance. If a low load growth forecast is used, including Inga 3 in the power mix results in higher system cost across all sensitivities. In our scenarios, the effect of Inga 3 deployment on South African power system cost ranges from an increase of ZAR 4300 (US$ 330) million annually to savin...
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  • 11
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    Adaptive and interactive climate futures: systematic review of ‘serious games’ for engagement and decision-making (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-06
    Description: Climate change is already having adverse impacts on ecosystems, communities and economic activities through higher temperatures, prolonged droughts, and more frequent extremes. However, a gap remains between public understanding, scientific knowledge about climate change, and changes in behaviour to effect adaptation. ‘Serious games’—games used for purposes other than entertainment—are one way to reduce this adaptation deficit by enhancing opportunities for social learning and enabling positive action. Games can provide communities with the opportunity to interactively explore different climate futures, build capability and capacity for dealing with complex challenges, and socialise adaptation priorities with diverse publics. Using systematic review methods, this paper identifies, reviews, synthesises and assesses the literature on serious games for climate change adaptation. To determine where and how impact is achieved, we draw on an evaluation framework grounded in social lea...
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  • 12
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    Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050 (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-06
    Description: Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO 2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relati...
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  • 13
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    Integrating proximal broad-band vegetation indices and carbon fluxes to model gross primary productivity in a tropical dry forest (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-15
    Description: The measurement of carbon exchange between vegetation and the atmosphere is vital to quantify the impact of environmental variables on the carbon sequestration capacity of forests, and to predict how they will respond to future climate. In this study we use proximal remote sensing, defined as observations made from non-contact radiometric or imaging sensors in close proximity to the forest canopy (10–20 m), as an intermediate upscaling tool between direct measurements of carbon fluxes and satellite-derived estimations of primary productivity in a tropical dry forest (TDF) in Jalisco, Mexico. Two broad-band vegetation indices (VIs), the normalized difference VI and the enhanced vegetation index 2 (EVI2), were calculated from proximally sensed canopy properties, validated with field estimates of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation by photosynthetic tissue ( f APARgreen ), and compared to estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) and net...
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  • 14
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    Large scale climate oscillation impacts on temperature, precipitation and land surface phenology in Central Asia (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-15
    Description: Central Asia has been rapidly changing in multiple ways over the past few decades. Increases in temperature and likely decreases in precipitation in Central Asia as the result of global climate change are making one of the most arid regions in the world even more susceptible to large-scale droughts. Global climate oscillations, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, have previously been linked to observed weather patterns in Central Asia. However, until now it has been unclear how the different climate oscillations act simultaneously to affect the weather and subsequently the vegetated land surface in Central Asia. We fit well-established land surface phenology models to two versions of MODIS data to identify the land surface phenology of Central Asia between 2001 and 2016. We then combine five climate oscillation indices into one regression model and identify the relative importance of each of these indices on precipitation, temperature, and land surface phenology, to learn ...
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  • 15
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    Quantifying the climate response to extreme land cover changes in Europe with a regional model (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: Many future scenarios expect a key role for the land use sector to stabilize temperature rise to 2 °C or less. Changes in land cover can influence the climate system, and the extent and magnitude of the anthropogenic modifications at local and regional scales is still largely unexplored. In this study, we use the regional climate model COSMO-CLM v.4.8 to quantify the climate response to idealized extreme land cover changes in Europe. We simulate four idealized land use transitions involving abrupt conversion of today forestland to bare land or herbaceous vegetation, and conversion of today cropland to evergreen needle-leaf forest or deciduous broad-leaf forest. We find that deforestation to bare land and herbaceous vegetation causes an annual mean regional cooling of −0.06 ± 0.09 (mean ± standard deviation) and −0.13 ± 0.08, respectively. Afforestation to needle-leaf and broad-leaf forests leads to a mean warming of 0.15 ± 0.09 °C and 0.13 ± 0.09 °C, respectively. Precipitation ...
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  • 16
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    Organic carbon sequestration and storage in vegetated coastal habitats along the western coast of the Arabian Gulf (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: Certain coastal ecosystems such as mangrove, saltmarsh and seagrass habitats have been identified as significant natural carbon sinks, through the sequestration and storage of carbon in their biomass and sediments, collectively known as ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems. These ecosystems can often thrive in extreme environments where terrestrial systems otherwise survive at the limit of their existence, such as in arid and desert regions of the globe. To further our understanding of the capability of blue carbon ecosystems to sequester and store carbon in such extreme climates, we measured carbon sediment stocks in 25 sites along the Western Arabian Gulf coast. While seagrass meadows and saltmarsh habitats were widely distributed along the coast, mangrove stands were much reduced as a result of anthropogenic pressures, with 90% of stands having been lost over the last century. Carbon stocks in 1 m deep surface sediments were similar across all three blue carbon habitats, with comparable ...
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  • 17
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    Temporal and spatial evaluation of stormwater engineering standards reveals risks and priorities across the United States (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: Stormwater infrastructure in the United States is designed using governmental precipitation frequency documents and informed by State Departments of Transportation (DOT) guidelines that balance risks and costs. However, both governmental precipitation documents and State DOT guidelines are updated infrequently, which enhances risks in areas where precipitation patterns have changed over time. This study reviewed State DOT design manuals from the 48 contiguous US states and the District of Columbia and found wide variation in design return period standards recommended for similar roadways and infrastructure types. Precipitation differences between successive US precipitation documents for 43 states over the period of 1961–2000 were found to be statistically significant in more than 90% of the study area. These differences indicate that stormwater infrastructure installed prior to the latest update of precipitation frequency documents could be under-designed for present and future...
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  • 18
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    Enhanced response of global wetland methane emissions to the 2015–2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation event (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: Wetlands are thought to be the major contributor to interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) with anomalies driven by the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Yet it remains unclear whether (i) the increase in total global CH 4 emissions during El Niño versus La Niña events is from wetlands and (ii) how large the contribution of wetland CH 4 emissions is to the interannual variability of atmospheric CH 4 . We used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost and wetland dynamics to estimate CH 4 emissions, forced by three separate meteorological reanalyses and one gridded observational climate dataset, to simulate the spatio-temporal dynamics of wetland CH 4 emissions from 1980–2016. The simulations show that while wetland CH 4 responds with negative annual anomalies during the El Niño events, the instantaneous growth rate of wetland CH 4 emis...
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  • 19
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    Spatial assessment of maize physical drought vulnerability in sub-Saharan Africa: Linking drought exposure with crop failure (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-29
    Description: Crop yields exhibit known responses to droughts. However, quantifying crop drought vulnerability is often not straightforward, because components of vulnerability are not defined in a standardized and spatially comparable quantity in most cases and it must be defined on a fine spatial resolution. This study aims to develop a physical crop drought vulnerability index through linking the drought exposure index (DEI) with the crop sensitivity index (CSI) in sub-Saharan Africa. Two different DEIs were compared. One was derived from the cumulative distribution functions fitted to precipitation and the other from the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. DEIs were calculated for one, three, six, nine, and twelve-month time scales. Similarly, CSI was calculated by fitting a cumulative distribution function to maize yield simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model. Using a power function, curves were fitted to CSI and DEI relations res...
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  • 20
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    Rain-on-snow events in Alaska, their frequency and distribution from satellite observations (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-06-29
    Description: Wet snow and the icing events that frequently follow wintertime rain-on-snow (ROS) affect high latitude ecosystems at multiple spatial and temporal scales, including hydrology, carbon cycle, wildlife, and human development. However, the distribution of ROS events and their response to climatic changes are uncertain. In this study, we quantified ROS spatiotemporal variability across Alaska during the cold season (November to March) and clarified the influence of precipitation and temperature variations on these patterns. A satellite-based daily ROS geospatial classification was derived for the region by combining remote sensing information from overlapping MODIS and AMSR sensor records. The ROS record extended over the recent satellite record (water years 2003–2011 and 2013–2016) and was derived at a daily time step and 6 km grid, benefiting from finer (500 m) resolution MODIS snow cover observations and coarser (12.5 km) AMSR microwave brightness temperature-based freeze–thaw re...
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  • 21
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    Increasing carbon footprint of grain crop production in the US Western Corn Belt (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-11-28
    Description: Global agriculture is challenged to increase soil carbon sequestration and reduce greenhouse gas emissions while providing products for an increasing population. Growing crop production could be achieved through higher yield per hectare (i.e. intensive farming) or more hectares (extensive farming), which however, have different ecological and environmental consequences. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that expanding cropland for additional production may lead to loss of vegetation and soil carbon, and threaten the survival of wildlife. New concerns about the impacts of extensive farming have been raised for the US Corn Belt, one of the world’s most productive regions, as cropland has rapidly expanded northwestward unto grasslands and wetlands in recent years. Here we used a process-based ecosystem model to distinguish and quantify how natural drivers as well as intensive and extensive farming practices have altered grain production, soil carbon storage, and agricultural carb...
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  • 22
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    Global cost estimates of forest climate mitigation with albedo: a new integrative policy approach (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-11-28
    Description: Climate change mitigation policies have usually considered forest-based actions as cheap and fast options to reduce CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere and slow down global warming. Most economic analyses, however, have ignored the effects of these actions on land surface albedo and the resulting effect on energy balance and temperature. This study estimates the marginal cost of forest mitigation associated with both carbon sequestration and albedo change, by introducing regional and forest-specific albedo information in a global dynamic forestry model. Our analysis indicates that traditional forest sequestration policies have underestimated the costs of climate mitigation, driving forest-based actions in regions where subsequent changes in albedo are significant. To reduce this inefficiency, this paper proposes a novel approach where both carbon sequestration and albedo effect are incorporated into pricing. Our results suggest that, under the same carbon price path, ...
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  • 23
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    Lightning hazards to human societies in a changing climate (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-11-30
    Description: Lightning is a natural hazard, lethal and destructive on short time scales and with important climatic effects on longer time-scales (through NOx production and forest fire ignition). It is accompanied by severe weather, hail and flash flooding that often entail significant economic losses. It also poses threats to aviation safety and to renewable energy production by wind-turbines, and is known to adversely affect electric power utilities and transmission lines. Present day global trends in urbanization, land-use and energy production are mapped to climate change through several scenarios, relating future concentrations of green-house gasses in the atmosphere (‘Representative Concentration Pathways’ or RCPs; IPCC et al 2013 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p 1535) to the adopted energy policies and ...
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  • 24
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    Climate effects of stringent air pollution controls mitigate future maize losses in China (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-11-30
    Description: Future anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions determine climate change in China, which influences crop growth and food production. However, very few studies have investigated their combined climate impacts on crop yields. Here, we apply a process-based modeling approach to examine potential climatic impacts of air pollution controls on maize yields in China for two future scenarios in the 2030s. The model suggests that reducing aerosol pollution emissions increases radiation, temperature and precipitation. Increased radiation and precipitation enhance yields while higher temperature reduces yields. These contrasting climate effects offset each other, leading to varied spatial responses in yields. Following the current legislation emission scenario, maize yield declines by 2.3% because air pollution shows only moderate reductions and the higher future temperature exerts the dominant detrimental impacts. In contrast, with the maximum technically feasible reduction scen...
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    Trade openness and the nutrient use of nations (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: To contribute to the debate over globalization and the environment we ask the question: what is the impact of trade openness on the nutrient use of nations? We address this question by using econometric methods to quantify the causal relationship between the trade openness and the nutrient use of nations on a global scale. In our empirical analysis we go beyond a cross-sectional analysis. We exploit time-series variation for an unbalanced panel of countries that spans the time period 2001–2014 (1027 total observations). By using a panel data analysis we are able to use fixed effects and better control for unobservable heterogeneity. We also explicitly consider how the openness of a country to trade may interact with its comparative advantage which determines its relative specialization in production, and hence its export strength as well as its import needs. We find that trade openness on average does not significantly impact nutrient use. However, there is evidence that as coun...
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    The North Atlantic–Eurasian teleconnection in summer and its effects on Eurasian climates (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-08
    Description: A teleconnection between the North Atlantic Ocean and the Eurasian continent is suggested by statistical and dynamical analysis of the northern summer 500 hPa geopotential height field. This teleconnection, termed the Atlantic–Eurasian (AEA) teleconnection, has five centers of action, in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, northeastern North Atlantic Ocean, Eastern Europe, the Kara Sea, and north China. The AEA index (AEAI) shows that the AEA undergoes a high degree of variability from year to year, and the AEAI has an increasing trend over the last 30 years. Our results suggest that this phenomenon is a large-scale Rossby wave train that originates in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. We support this conclusion by the methods of stationary wave ray tracing in non-uniform horizontal basic flow, wave activity flux calculations, and numerical models. The AEA and midlatitude circumglobal teleconnection pattern manifest distinct features at the hemispheric scale, despite the a...
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    Is arctic greening consistent with the ecology of tundra? Lessons from an ecologically informed mass balance model (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-08
    Description: Climate change has been implicated in the widespread ‘greening’ of the arctic in recent decades. However, differences in arctic greening patterns among satellite platforms and recent reports of decreased rate of greening or of browning have made attributing arctic greening trends to a warming climate challenging. Here, we compared MODIS greening trends to those predicted by the coupled carbon and nitrogen model (CCaN); a mass balance carbon and nitrogen model that was driven by MODIS surface temperature and climate. CCaN was parameterized using model-data fusion, where model predictions were ecologically constrained with historical ecological ground and satellite based data. We found that, at long temporal and large spatial scales, MODIS greening trends were consistent with ecological and biogeochemical data from arctic tundra. However, at smaller spatial scales, observations and CCaN greening trends differed in the location, extent, and magnitude of greening. CCaN was unable to...
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    A global assessment of Indigenous community engagement in climate research (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-15
    Description: For millennia Indigenous communities worldwide have maintained diverse knowledge systems informed through careful observation of dynamics of environmental changes. Although Indigenous communities and their knowledge systems are recognized as critical resources for understanding and adapting to climate change, no comprehensive, evidence-based analysis has been conducted into how environmental studies engage Indigenous communities. Here we provide the first global systematic review of levels of Indigenous community participation and decision-making in all stages of the research process (initiation, design, implementation, analysis, dissemination) in climate field studies that access Indigenous knowledge. We develop indicators for assessing responsible community engagement in research practice and identify patterns in levels of Indigenous community engagement. We find that the vast majority of climate studies (87%) practice an extractive model in which outside researchers us...
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    Ecosystem carbon dynamics differ between tundra shrub types in the western Canadian Arctic (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-08-01
    Description: Shrub expansion at high latitudes has been implicated in driving vegetation ‘greening’ trends and may partially offset CO 2 emissions from warming soils. However, we do not yet know how Arctic shrub expansion will impact ecosystem carbon (C) cycling and this limits our ability to forecast changes in net C storage and resulting climate feedbacks. Here we quantify the allocation of photosynthate between different ecosystem components for two common deciduous Arctic shrubs, both of which are increasing in abundance in the study region; green alder ( Alnus viridis (Chaix) DC.) and dwarf birch ( Betula glandulosa Michx., B.). Using 13 C isotopic labelling, we show that carbon use efficiency (i.e. the fraction of gross photosynthesis remaining after subtracting respiration) in peak growing season is similar between the two shrubs (56 ± 12% for A. viridis , 59 ± 6% for B. glandulosa ), but that biomass production efficiency (plant C uptake al...
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    Precipitation reduction during Hurricane Harvey with simulated offshore wind farms (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-07-26
    Description: Hurricane Harvey brought to the Texas coast possibly the heaviest rain ever recorded in US history, which then caused flooding at unprecedented levels. Previous studies have shown that large arrays of hypothetical offshore wind farms can extract kinetic energy from a hurricane and thus reduce the wind and storm surge. This study quantitatively tests whether the hypothetical offshore turbines may also affect precipitation patterns. The Weather Research Forecast model is employed to model Harvey and the offshore wind farms are parameterized as elevated drag and turbulent kinetic energy sources. Model results indicate that the offshore wind farms have a strong impact on the distribution of accumulated precipitation, with an obvious decrease onshore downstream of the wind farms, and an increase in offshore areas, upstream of or within the wind farms. Compared with the control case with no wind turbines, increased horizontal wind divergence and lower vertical velocity are found where...
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    The influence of spatiotemporally decoupled land use on honey bee colony health and pollination service delivery (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-08-02
    Description: Societal dependence on insects for pollination of agricultural crops has risen amidst concerns over pollinator declines. Habitat loss and lack of forage have been implicated in the decline of both managed and native pollinators. Land use changes in the Northern Great Plains of the US, a region supporting over 1 million honey bee colonies annually, have shifted away from historical grassland ecosystems bees rely on for forage toward landscapes dominated by corn, soybeans, and other row crops. We investigated how land use impacts honey bee colony population size during the growing season and subsequent colony population size for almond pollination in central California the following February. We provide estimates of how land use affects beekeeper economics by linking summer habitat with pollination service payments and later production of new colonies. Our results demonstrate that a greater presence of non-bee foraged agricultural crops surrounding apiaries in the summer results i...
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    Evidence of vegetation greening at alpine treeline ecotones: three decades of Landsat spectral trends informed by lidar-derived vertical structure (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-08-18
    Description: Monitoring changes in vegetation at high-latitude and alpine treeline ecotones is critical for characterizing changes to carbon and energy budgets, plant species richness, and habitat suitability and is often considered a bellwether of a changing climate. Herein, we used transects of airborne laser scanning (ALS) data to identify alpine treeline ecotones in the Yukon Territory of Canada, and assessed changes in vegetation greenness using a time-series of Landsat imagery over a 30 year period from 1985 to 2015. Specifically, we calculated the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from annual Landsat composites and assessed temporal trends within 500 m of detected forest-lines (i.e., transition point from continuous forest into treeline ecotones) using Theil–Sen’s nonparametric regression. Across 74 detected treeline ecotones, 27.5% of Landsat pixels displayed a significant positive trend in EVI and 5.6% of pixels displayed a significant negative trend ( p 
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    Rainfall-dependent influence of snowfall on species loss (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: The response of plant diversity to increased snowfall, i.e., precipitation that falls in a solid state rather than a liquid state, is unclear. We investigated the potential effects of 12 year snowfall augmentation on species richness using coordinated distributed experiments, including ten sites across a rainfall gradient of 211–354 mm and spanning 440 km in length in the temperate steppe. Snowfall augmentation decreased species richness rather than enhancing it. Abiotic factor driven by soil pH was the dominant determinant affecting the variation in species richness under changing precipitation regimes, overriding biotic factor. The strongest reduction in species richness induced by snowfall augmentation occurred in the low-rainfall sites. Our study provides insights into the relationship between precipitation and biodiversity in arid and semiarid regions.
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    Pathway-dependent fate of permafrost region carbon (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: Permafrost soils in the high northern latitudes contain a substantial amount of carbon which is not decomposed due to frozen conditions. Climate change will lead to a thawing of at least part of the permafrost, implying that the stored carbon will become accessible to decomposition and be released to the atmosphere. We use a land surface model to quantify the amount of carbon released up until 2300 and determine the net carbon balance of the northern hemisphere permafrost region under climate warming following the RCP scenarios 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Here we show for the first time that the net carbon balance of the permafrost region is not just strongly dependent on the overall warming, but also on the CO 2 concentration pathway. As a result moderate warming scenarios may counterintuitively lead to lower net carbon emissions from the permafrost region than low warming scenarios.
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    Untangling methodological and scale considerations in growth and productivity trend estimates of Canada’s forests (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: In view of the economic, social and ecological importance of Canada’s forest ecosystems, there is a growing interest in studying the response of these ecosystems to climate change. Accurate knowledge regarding growth trajectories is needed for both policy makers and forest managers to ensure sustainability of the forest resource. However, results of previous analyses regarding the sign and magnitude of trends have often diverged. The main objective of this paper was to analyse the current state of scientific knowledge on growth and productivity trends in Canada’s forests and provide some explanatory elements for contrasting observations. The three methods that are commonly used for assessments of tree growth and forest productivity (i.e. forest inventory data, tree-ring records, and satellite observations) have different underlying physiological assumptions and operate on different spatiotemporal scales, which complicates direct comparisons of trend values between studies. Withi...
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    A critical assessment of the long-term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-08-25
    Description: This study investigates the robustness of the long-term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the ERA20C reanalysis. A statistically significant trend in the AO is found in ERA20C over the period 1900–2010. These long-term changes in the AO are not found in two other observational datasets. The long-term change in the AO in ERA20C is associated with statistically significant negative trend (approximately −6 hPa per century) in mean-sea level pressure (MSLP) over the Northern Hemisphere polar regions. This is not seen in the HADSLP2 observational dataset, suggesting that the trends in the ERA20C AO index may be spurious. The spurious long-term changes in MSLP and the AO index in ERA20C result in a strengthening of the meridional MSLP gradient in ERA20C. The strengthening of the meridional MSLP gradient is consistent with increases in wintertime storminess in Northern Europe and the NH high latitudes.
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    Global implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flows (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-08-25
    Description: Targets agreed to in Paris in 2015 aim to limit global warming to ‘well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels’. Despite the far-reaching consequences of this multi-lateral climate change mitigation strategy, the implications for global river flows remain unclear. Here we estimate the impacts of 1.5 °C versus 2.0 °C mitigation scenarios on peak flows by using daily river flow data from a multi-model ensemble which follows the HAPPI Protocol (that is specifically designed to simulate these temperature targets). We find agreement between models with regard to changing risk of river flow extremes. Moreover, we find that the response at 2.0 °C is not a uniform extension of the response at 1.5°, suggesting a non-linear global response of peak flows to the two mitigation levels. Yet committing to the 2.0 °C warming target, rather than 1.5 °C, is projected to lead to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of extreme ...
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    Biological control of an invasive pest eases pressures on global commodity markets (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-08-29
    Description: In an increasingly globalized world, invasive species cause major human, financial, and environmental costs. A cosmopolitan pest of great concern is the cassava mealybug Phenacoccus manihoti (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), which invaded Asia in 2008. Following its arrival, P. manihoti inflicted measurable yield losses and a 27% drop in aggregate cassava production in Thailand. As Thailand is a vital exporter of cassava-derived commodities to China and supplies 36% of the world’s internationally-traded starch, yield shocks triggered price surges and structural changes in global starch trade. In 2009 a biological control agent was introduced in Asia-the host-specific parasitoid, Anagyrus lopezi (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae). This parasitoid had previously controlled the cassava mealybug in Africa, and its introduction in Asia restored yield levels at a continent-wide scale. Trade network and price time-series analyses reveal how both mealybug-induced production loss ...
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    Estimating the value of offshore wind along the United States’ Eastern Coast (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-05
    Description: Offshore wind power deployment has been concentrated in Europe, and remains limited in other areas of the world. Among the many challenges to deployment is the need to understand the value that offshore wind provides within electricity markets. This article develops a rigorous method to assess the economic value of offshore wind along the eastern coastline of the United States, seeking improved understanding of how the value of offshore wind varies both geographically and over time, and what has driven that variation. The article uses historical (2007–2016) weather data at thousands of potential offshore wind sites, combined with historical wholesale electricity market outcomes and renewable energy certificate (REC) prices at hundreds of possible transmission interconnection points. We find that the average historical market value of offshore wind from 2007 to 2016—considering energy, capacity, and RECs—varies significantly by project location, from $40/MWh to more than $110/MWh...
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    Chronic historical drought legacy exacerbates tree mortality and crown dieback during acute heatwave-compounded drought (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-04
    Description: Globally, combinations of drought and warming are driving widespread tree mortality and crown dieback. Yet thresholds triggering either tree mortality or crown dieback remain uncertain, particularly with respect to two issues: (i) the degree to which heat waves, as an acute stress, can trigger mortality, and (ii) the degree to which chronic historical drought can have legacy effects on these processes. Using forest study sites in southwestern Australia that experienced dieback associated with a short-term drought with a heatwave (heatwave-compounded drought) in 2011 and span a gradient in long-term precipitation (LTP) change, we examined the potential for chronic historical drought to amplify tree mortality or crown dieback during a heatwave-compounded drought event for the dominant overstory species Eucalyptus marginata and Corymbia calophylla . We show pronounced legacy effects associated with chronically reduced LTP (1951–1980 versus 1981–2010) at t...
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    Urbanization and sustainability under transitional economies: a synthesis for Asian Russia (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-08
    Description: Spanning a vast territory of approximately 13 million km 2 , Asian Russia was home to 38 million people in 2016. In an effort to synthesize data and knowledge regarding urbanization and sustainable development in Asian Russia in the context of socioeconomic transformation following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1990, we quantified the spatiotemporal changes of urban dynamics using satellite imagery and explored the interrelationships between urbanization and sustainability. We then developed a sustainability index, complemented with structural equation modeling, for a comprehensive analysis of their dynamics. We chose six case cities, i.e., Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk, Omsk, Irkutsk, and Khabarovsk, as representatives of large cities to investigate whether large cities are in sync with the region in terms of population dynamics, urbanization, and sustainability. Our major findings include the following. First, Asian Russia experienced enhanced economic ...
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    Drop-in biofuels offer strategies for meeting California’s 2030 climate mandate (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-12
    Description: In 2015, California established a mandate that requires on-road greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be reduced by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. We explore the feasibility of meeting this goal by large-scale commercialization of drop-in biofuels. Drop-in biofuels, although not clearly defined, are a class of fuels that can be produced from biomass and blended with either crude oil or finished fuels without requiring equipment retrofits. This article focuses on thermochemical routes at or near commercialization. We provide a bottom-up, spatially explicit cost analysis to evaluate whether California can meet its 2030 GHG reduction target with drop-in fuels alone. A takeaway from our analysis is that drop-in fuels, if their performance is consistent with small-scale and simulated results, can be viable low-carbon substitutes for gasoline and diesel. We find that California can meet, and even exceed, its 2030 GHG emissions target for on-road vehicles with drop-in biofuels alone, but t...
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    Corrigendum: The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 094014 [http://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014] ) (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-11
    Description: Description unavailable
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    The connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Indian Summer Monsoon since the Industrial Revolution is intrinsic to the climate system (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-19
    Description: Observations show a significant positive correlation between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) over the past 100 years. Whether this connection is intrinsic to the climate system or caused by external forcing remains unclear in view of the substantial existence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols in observations. Two state-of-the-art climate models (GFDL-CM3 and HadGEM2-ES), the historical simulations (1850–2005) of which show positive correlations between the AMO and ISM, similar to observation, are used to address this question. A significant positive AMO-ISM correlation exists in the control simulations with fixed preindustrial forcing with HadGEM2-ES, but not with GFDL-CM3. An in-depth analysis illustrates that the positive correlation in the HadGEM2-ES control run is more reasonable, since it simulates a similar teleconnection of the AMO with the North Pacific to that in both observations and previous studies. In comp...
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    How big is the energy efficiency resource? (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-19
    Description: Most economic theorists assume that energy efficiency—the biggest global provider of energy services—is a limited and dwindling resource whose price- and policy-driven adoption will inevitably deplete its potential and raise its cost. Influenced by that theoretical construct, most traditional analysts and deployers of energy efficiency see and exploit only a modest fraction of the worthwhile efficiency resource, saving less and paying more than they should. Yet empirically, modern energy efficiency is, and shows every sign of durably remaining, an expanding-quantity, declining-cost resource. Its adoption is constrained by major but correctable market failures and increasingly motivated by positive externalities. Most importantly, in both newbuild and retrofit applications, its quantity is severalfold larger and its cost lower than most in the energy and climate communities realize. The efficiency resource far exceeds the sum of savings by individual technologies because artfully...
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    Influence of South Pacific quadrapole on austral winter precipitation over the SPCZ (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-20
    Description: The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is a key component in the weather and climate system. By analogy to the intertropical convergence zone, the SPCZ is also part of the ‘engine’ for the tropical convection. There have been many studies about the tropical impacts on the SPCZ. Here, we show that the SPCZ, especially the precipitation in this region, is subject to the influence of South Pacific quadrapole (SPQ) in the subtropics via the mechanism of wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature feedback (SST). The anomalous winds (at 850 hPa) induced by the SST anomaly gradient produce low-level convergence and activate upward motion over the SPCZ region, ultimately leading to deep convection and enhanced precipitation there. As a result, the variability in the SPQ leads the changes in the SPCZ by about 5 months. Such extratropical impacts on the SPCZ are independent of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, which has been demonstrated to have significant impacts on the SPCZ in existin...
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    It’s not the heat, it’s the vulnerability: attribution of the 2016 spike in heat-associated deaths in Maricopa County, Arizona (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-20
    Description: Health risk assessments for extreme heat and the design of corresponding interventions can be enhanced with more information regarding causal drivers of year-to-year variability in adverse outcomes. Summer 2016 was a record-setting year in terms of summer heat and its impacts on health in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA. The month of June was the warmest observed in the county and the six-month warm season spanning May through October was the fourth warmest. In the same year, a record number of heat-associated deaths was reported by the heat surveillance program run by the county health department. We analyzed the time series of heat-associated deaths to quantify the extent to which the unprecedented death count in 2016 was driven by anomalous weather. We first estimated the historical association between temperature and heat-associated deaths for the time period 2006–2015 using a time series regression model. Subsequently, we used the model to generate predictions of daily heat-a...
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    Closing the yield gap while ensuring water sustainability (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-25
    Description: Water is a major factor limiting crop production in many regions around the world. Irrigation can greatly enhance crop yields, but the local availability and timing of freshwater resources constrains the ability of humanity to increase food production. Innovations in irrigation infrastructure have allowed humanity to utilize previously inaccessible water resources, enhancing water withdrawals for agriculture while increasing pressure on environmental flows and other human uses. While substantial additional water will be required to support future food production, it is not clear whether and where freshwater availability is sufficient to sustainably close the yield gap in cultivated lands. The extent to which irrigation can be expanded within presently rainfed cropland without depleting environmental flows remains poorly understood. Here we perform a spatially explicit biophysical assessment of global consumptive water use for crop production under current and maximum attainable ...
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    Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-25
    Description: Anthropogenic climate change is altering ecological and human systems globally, including in United States (US) national parks, which conserve unique biodiversity and resources. Yet, the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change across all the parks have been unknown. Here, in the first spatial analysis of historical and projected temperature and precipitation across all 417 US national parks, we show that climate change exposes the national park area more than the US as a whole. This occurs because extensive parts of the national park area are in the Arctic, at high elevations, or in the arid southwestern US. Between 1895 and 2010, mean annual temperature of the national park area increased 1.0 °C ± 0.2 °C century −1 (mean ± standard error), double the US rate. Temperature has increased most in Alaska and its extensive national parks. Annual precipitation of the national park area declined significantly on 12% of national park area, compared to 3% of the US. Hi...
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    Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-25
    Description: The decline in the floating sea ice cover in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. In this review, we examine this ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice across all seasons. Our analysis is based on satellite retrievals, atmospheric reanalysis, climate-model simulations and a literature review. We find that relative to the 1981–2010 reference period, recent anomalies in spring and winter sea ice coverage have been more significant than any observed drop in summer sea ice extent (SIE) throughout the satellite period. For example, the SIE in May and November 2016 was almost four standard deviations below the reference SIE in these months. Decadal ice loss during winter months has accelerated from −2.4 %/decade from 1979 to 1999 to −3.4%/decade from 2000 onwards. We also examine regional ice loss and find that for any given region, the seasonal ice loss is larger the closer that region is to the seasonal outer edge of the ice cover. Finally, across all mo...
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    Atmospheric new particle formation and growth: review of field observations (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-28
    Description: This review focuses on the observed characteristics of atmospheric new particle formation (NPF) in different environments of the global troposphere. After a short introduction, we will present a theoretical background that discusses the methods used to analyze measurement data on atmospheric NPF and the associated terminology. We will update on our current understanding of regional NPF, i.e. NPF taking simultaneously place over large spatial scales, and complement that with a full review on reported NPF and growth rates during regional NPF events. We will shortly review atmospheric NPF taking place at sub-regional scales. Since the growth of newly-formed particles into larger sizes is of great current interest, we will briefly discuss our observation-based understanding on which gaseous compounds contribute to the growth of newly-formed particles, and what implications this will have on atmospheric cloud condensation nuclei formation. We will finish the review with a summary of ...
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    Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-28
    Description: Dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) is emerging as a ‘fit-for-purpose’ method for climate-change adaptation planning to address widening future uncertainty and long planning timeframes. A key component of DAPP is to monitor indicators of change such as flooding and storm events, which can trigger timely adaptive actions (change pathway/behavior) ahead of thresholds. Signals and triggers are needed to support DAPP—the signal provides early warning of the emergence of the trigger (decision-point), and the trigger initiates the process to change pathway before a harmful adaptation-threshold is reached. We demonstrate a new approach to designing signals and triggers using the case of increased flooding as sea level continues to rise. The flooding frequency is framed in terms of probable timing of several events reaching a specific height threshold within a set monitoring period. This framing is well suited to adaptive planning for different hazards, because it allows the period ...
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    More prolonged droughts by the end of the century in the Middle East (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-28
    Description: Climate change can put an intense pressure on already scarce water resources in the Middle East, potentially catalyzing the risk of serious water conflicts. Albeit most efforts to quantify the potential impact of climate change in the Middle East use global climate model outputs, here we employ two regional climate model outputs which are expected to provide more trustworthy projections for the region with a complex terrain and variable land surfaces. We find that not ubiquitous does future climate change lead to a decline in annual precipitation total in the region; nevertheless, the projected decline stems from an increase in number of dry days (NDD) rather than a decrease in precipitation intensity on rainy days. The increase in annual precipitation total in the southern part is driven by changes in both NDD and precipitation intensity. The drought periods will be longer (up to 90%) in about 80% of the Middle East area. The prolonged droughts in the future will increase the a...
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    Changes in soil organic carbon stocks after conversion from forest to oil palm plantations in Malaysian Borneo (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-28
    Description: The continuous rise in the global demand for palm oil has resulted in large-scale expansion of industrial oil palm plantations—largely at the expense of primary and secondary forests. The potentially negative environmental impacts of these conversions have given rise to closer scrutiny. However, empirical data on the effects of conversion of forests to industrial oil palm plantations on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is scarce and patchy. We evaluated the changes in SOC stocks after conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantations over the first and second rotation period in Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo. Soil samples were collected from three age classes of oil palm plantations converted from forest (49, 39 and 29 years ago respectively) with three replicate sites and four adjacent primary forest sites as reference. In each site under oil palm, the three management zones, namely weeded circle (WC), frond stacks (FS), and between palm (BP), were sampled separately. All soil...
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    Genetic yield gains of winter wheat in Germany over more than 100 years (1895–2007) under contrasting fertilizer applications (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-28
    Description: For highly productive regions such as Germany, the increase of wheat grain yields observed throughout the 20th century is largely attributed to the progress in crop breeding and agronomic management. However, several studies indicate a strong variability of the genetic contribution across locations that further varies with experimental design and variety selection. It is therefore still unclear to which extent management conditions have promoted the realization of the breeding progress in Germany over the last 100+ years. We established a side-by-side cultivation experiment over two seasons (2014/2015 and 2015/2016) including 16 winter wheat varieties released in Germany between 1895 and 2007. The varieties were grown using 24 different long-term fertilization treatments established since 1904 (Dikopshof, Germany). Averaged over all cultivars and treatments mean yields of 6.88 t ha −1 and 5.15 t ha −1 were estimated in 2015 and 2016, respectively. A linear mi...
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    The global warming potential of near-surface emitted water vapour (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-09-28
    Description: Water vapour is the most abundant and powerful greenhouse gas in Earth’s atmosphere, and is emitted by human activities. Yet the global warming potential (GWP) and radiative forcing (RF) of emitted water vapour have not been formally quantified in the literature. Here these quantities are estimated for surface emission using idealised experiments conducted with the CAM5 global atmospheric model at fixed ocean temperatures. Water is introduced in vapour form at rates matching total anthropogenic emissions (mainly from irrigation) but omitting the local evaporative cooling seen in irrigation simulations. A 100 year GWP for H 2 O of −10 −3 to 5 × 10 −4 is found, and an effective radiative forcing of −0.1 to 0.05 W m −2 for the given emissions. Increases in water vapour greenhouse effect are small because additional vapour cannot reach the upper troposphere, and greenhouse-gas warming is outweighed by increases in reflectance from humidity-indu...
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    A first collective validation of global fluvial flood models for major floods in Nigeria and Mozambique (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-02
    Description: Global flood models (GFMs) are becoming increasingly important for disaster risk management internationally. However, these models have had little validation against observed flood events, making it difficult to compare model performance. In this paper, we introduce the first collective validation of multiple GFMs against the same events and we analyse how different model structures influence performance. We identify three hydraulically diverse regions in Africa with recent large scale flood events: Lokoja, Nigeria; Idah, Nigeria; and Chemba, Mozambique. We then evaluate the flood extent output provided by six GFMs against satellite observations of historical flood extents in these regions. The critical success index of individual models across the three regions ranges from 0.45 to 0.7 and the percentage of flood captured ranges from 52% to 97%. Site specific conditions influence performance as the models score better in the confined floodplain of Lokoja but score poorly in Idah...
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    Divergent patterns of experimental and model-derived permafrost ecosystem carbon dynamics in response to Arctic warming (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-03
    Description: In the last few decades, temperatures in the Arctic have increased twice as much as the rest of the globe. As permafrost thaws in response to this warming, large amounts of soil organic matter may become vulnerable to decomposition. Microbial decomposition will release carbon (C) from permafrost soils, however, warmer conditions could also lead to enhanced plant growth and C uptake. Field and modeling studies show high uncertainty in soil and plant responses to climate change but there have been few studies that reconcile field and model data to understand differences and reduce uncertainty. Here, we evaluate gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R eco ), and net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) from eight years of experimental soil warming in moist acidic tundra against equivalent fluxes from the Community Land Model during simulations parameterized to reflect the field conditions associated with this manipulative field experiment. Over the eight-year expe...
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    Observation-based solar and wind power capacity factors and power densities (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-05
    Description: Power density is the rate of energy generation per unit of land surface area occupied by an energy system. The power density of low-carbon energy sources will play an important role in mediating the environmental consequences of energy system decarbonization as the world transitions away from high power-density fossil fuels. All else equal, lower power densities mean larger land and environmental footprints. The power density of solar and wind power remain surprisingly uncertain: estimates of realizable generation rates per unit area for wind and solar power span 0.3–47 W e m −2 and 10–120 W e m −2 respectively. We refine this range using US data from 1990–2016. We estimate wind power density from primary data, and solar power density from primary plant-level data and prior datasets on capacity density. The mean power density of 411 onshore wind power plants in 2016 was 0.50 W e m −2 . Wind plants with the largest...
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    A systematic review of how vulnerability of smallholder agricultural systems to changing climate is assessed in Africa (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-06
    Description: The impacts of changing climate on agriculture have consequences on livelihoods and food security. Smallholder farmers, who have heterogeneous farming systems and limited resources, compounded with multiple risks, are greatly affected. There has been limited research showing how vulnerability assessments have evolved in the smallholder agricultural sector of Africa overtime. This study systematically reviewed recent publications on vulnerability studies, especially among smallholder agricultural systems, to provide an overview of current developments in theory and practice of vulnerability in Africa over the last decade. The findings indicate an increase in vulnerability assessments undertaken across Sub Saharan Africa. Despite progress made in the application of enhanced conceptual frameworks and methods, at least four important gaps exist in the assessment process namely, inadequate engagement of local perspectives and knowledge, lack of clarity in the operationalisation of vu...
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    Covariation of vegetation and climate constrains present and future T/ET variability (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-06
    Description: The reliable partitioning of the terrestrial latent heat flux into evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) is important for linking carbon and water cycles and for better understanding ecosystem functioning at local, regional and global scales. Previous research revealed that the transpiration-to-evapotranspiration ratio (T/ET) is well constrained across ecosystems and is nearly independent of vegetation characteristics and climate. Here we investigated the reasons for such a global constancy in present-day T/ET by jointly analysing observations and process-based model simulations. Using this framework, we also quantified how the ratio T/ET could be influenced by changing climate. For present conditions, we found that the various components of land surface evaporation (bare soil evaporation, below canopy soil evaporation, evaporation from interception), and their respective ratios to plant transpiration, depend largely on local climate and equilibrium vegetation properties. The sy...
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    Negotiating local versus global needs in the International Long Term Ecological Research Network’s socio-ecological research agenda (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-06
    Description: Over the past decade, long-term socio-ecological research (LTSER) has been established to better integrate social science research and societal concerns into the goals and objectives of the International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network, an established global network of long-term ecological monitoring sites. The Horizon 2020 eLTER project, currently underway, includes as one of its key objectives to evaluate the performance of LTSER platforms. This article reflects part of this evaluation: six LTSER platforms were assessed through site visits of the lead author, coupled with reflections and insights of the platform managers, who are also co-authors. We provide background for the mission and goals of LTSER, then assess the six international LTSER platforms—Baltimore Ecosystem Study LTER, USA; Braila Island LTSER, Romania; Cairngorms LTSER, UK; Doñana LTSER, Spain; Omora Ethnobotanical Park Cape Horn LTER, Chile; and Sierra Nevada LTSER, Spain. While based on a strong...
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    Oysters as sentinels of climate variability and climate change in coastal ecosystems (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-09
    Description: Beyond key ecological services, marine resources are crucial for human food security and socio-economical sustainability. Among them, shellfish aquaculture and fishing are of primary importance but become more vulnerable under anthropogenic pressure, as evidenced by reported mass mortality events linked to global changes such as ocean warming and acidification, chemical contamination, and diseases. Understanding climate-related risks is a vital objective for conservation strategies, ecosystems management and human health. We provide here a comprehensive study of the historical mortality of adult oysters related to observed climate variability along the French Atlantic coast from 1986 to 2015, and we built on this knowledge to develop hindcast and forecast assessments of the oyster mortality risk from 1900 to 2100. We show that mortality events usually occur several months after winters dominated by the occurrence of positive North Atlantic oscillation (NAO+) atmospheric regimes ...
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    Estimating carbon loss due to internal decay in living trees using tomography: implications for forest carbon budgets (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-09
    Description: The world’s forests sequester and store vast amounts of atmospheric carbon, playing a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Internal stem decay in living trees results in the release of stored carbon back into the atmosphere, constituting an important, but poorly understood, countervailing force to carbon sequestration. The contribution of internal decay to estimates of forest carbon stocks, though likely significant, has yet to be quantified, given that an accurate method for the non-destructive quantification of internal decay has been lacking. To that end, we present here a novel and potentially transformative methodology, using sonic and electrical resistance tomography, for non-destructively quantifying the mass of stored carbon lost to internal decay in the boles of living trees. The methodology was developed using 72 northern hardwood trees ( Fagus grandifolia , Acer saccharum and Betula alleghaniensis ) from a late-successional forest in northweste...
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    Corrigendum: Aboveground carbon loss in natural and managed tropical forests from 2000 to 2012 (2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 074002 [http://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/074002] ) (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-09
    Description: Description unavailable
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    Using machine learning to build temperature-based ozone parameterizations for climate sensitivity simulations (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-10
    Description: A number of studies have demonstrated the importance of ozone in climate change simulations, for example concerning global warming projections and atmospheric dynamics. However, fully interactive atmospheric chemistry schemes needed for calculating changes in ozone are computationally expensive. Climate modelers therefore often use climatological ozone fields, which are typically neither consistent with the actual climate state simulated by each model nor with the specific climate change scenario. This limitation applies in particular to standard modeling experiments such as preindustrial control or abrupt 4xCO 2 climate sensitivity simulations. Here we suggest a novel method using a simple linear machine learning regression algorithm to predict ozone distributions for preindustrial and abrupt 4xCO 2 simulations. Using the atmospheric temperature field as the only input, the regression reliably predicts three-dimensional ozone distributions at monthly to dail...
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    Watershed slope as a predictor of fluvial dissolved organic matter and nitrate concentrations across geographical space and catchment size in the Arctic (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-10
    Description: Understanding linkages between river chemistry and biological production in arctic coastal waters requires improved estimates of riverine nutrient export. Here we present the results of a synthesis effort focusing on relationships between watershed slope and seasonal concentrations of river-borne dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and nitrate ( ##IMG## [http://ej.iop.org/images/1748-9326/13/10/104015/erlaae35dieqn1.gif] {${{{\rm{NO}}}_{3}}^{-}$} ) around the pan-Arctic. Strong negative relationships exist between watershed slope and concentrations of DOC and DON in arctic rivers. Spring and summer concentration-slope relationships for DOC and DON are qualitatively similar, although spring concentrations are higher. Relationships for ##IMG## [http://ej.iop.org/images/1748-9326/13/10/104015/erlaae35dieqn2.gif] {${{{\rm{NO}}}_{3}}^{-}$} are more variable, but a significant positive relationship exists between ...
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    Impacts of the forest definitions adopted by African countries on carbon conservation (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-10
    Description: In this paper, we aim to assess the impacts of the forest definitions adopted by each African country involved in the global climate change programmes of the United Nations on national carbon emission estimations. To do so, we estimate the proportion of national carbon stocks and tree cover loss that are found in areas considered to be non-forest areas. These non-forest areas are defined with respect to a threshold on the percentage of tree cover adopted by each country. Using percent tree cover and aboveground biomass maps derived from remote sensing data, we quantitatively show that in many countries, a large proportion of carbon stocks are found in non-forest areas, where a large amount of tree cover loss can also occur. We further found that under the REDD+ framework (reduced deforestation, reduced degradation, enhancement and conservation of forest carbon stocks, sustainable management of forests), some partner countries have proposed activities related to only reducing de...
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    Arctic sea ice thickness, volume, and multiyear ice coverage: losses and coupled variability (1958–2018) (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-12
    Description: Large-scale changes in Arctic sea ice thickness, volume and multiyear sea ice (MYI) coverage with available measurements from submarine sonars, satellite altimeters (ICESat and CryoSat-2), and satellite scatterometers are summarized. The submarine record spans the period between 1958 and 2000, the satellite altimeter records between 2003 and 2018, and the scatterometer records between 1999 and 2017. Regional changes in ice thickness (since 1958) and within the data release area of the Arctic Ocean, previously reported by Kwok and Rothrock (2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L15501), have been updated to include the 8 years of CryoSat-2 (CS-2) retrievals. Between the pre-1990 submarine period (1958–1976) and the CS-2 period (2011–2018) the average thickness near the end of the melt season, in six regions, decreased by 2.0 m or some 66% over six decades. Within the data release area (∼38% of the Arctic Ocean) of submarine ice draft, the thinning of ∼1.75 m in winter since ...
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    A systems network approach for climate change vulnerability assessment (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-16
    Description: Vulnerability to climate change is a product of biophysical and social dynamics. Assessments of community or regional vulnerability, however, often focus on quantitative infrastructure and environmental assessments, or qualitative assessments of a community’s social dynamics and livelihood activities. A dearth of integrated quantitative assessments is a major barrier for decision makers who require quantitative outputs and indicators, which can measure where vulnerability is most severe and can be linked to climate projections. Our framework and analysis helps address such gaps by identifying variables to build climate change vulnerability indices, which we pilot here focusing on Inuit communities in the Canadian Arctic. We start with a systematic literature review of community-based vulnerability studies and assess relationships among 58 social and biophysical variables. We then use multiplex network analysis to determine how social and environmental variables interact among an...
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    Changes in the severity of compound drought and hot extremes over global land areas (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-18
    Description: Global warming has been shown to affect weather and climate extremes, such as droughts, floods, windstorms, cold waves, and heat waves. A number of studies have focused on the variability of different characteristics of these extremes, including their frequency, spatial extent, and severity. Recently, the study of compound extremes, defined by the co-occurrence of multiple events with extreme impacts, has attracted much attention. The compound dry and hot extreme is one type of compound extreme and may lead to detrimental impacts on the society and ecosystem. Most previous studies have focused on changes in the frequency or spatial extent of compound dry and hot extremes, while assessments of changes in the severity of compound extremes are lacking. This study evaluated changes in the severity of compound dry and hot extremes at the global scale, based on the Standardized Dry and Hot Index (SDHI). A significant increase in the severity of compound dry and hot extremes (or decrea...
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    Reducing nitrogen footprints of consumer-level food loss and protein overconsumption in Japan, considering gender and age differences (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-18
    Description: The agro-food system perturbs the nitrogen (N) cycle through its N loads to the environment. The present study focused on food-related consumer-level N loads in Japan from 1961–2015, with a particular focus on food loss and protein overconsumption. Gender and age differences were also analyzed. Consumer-level food loss was negligible until the 1970s, when it began to slowly increase, accounting for an average of 13.2% of the annual net supply during 2011–2015. Japanese people have consumed more protein than the World Health Organization’s recommended intake since 1961. Protein overconsumption increased until the mid-1990s, when it began to decrease, but it still accounted for an average of 32.3% of total annual protein consumption during 2011–2015. The national mean of food N footprints (total release of reactive N into the environment related to individual food consumption) in the same period was 18.3 kg N capita –1 yr –1 , of which food loss accounted for 4%...
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    Systematic errors in northern Eurasian short-term weather forecasts induced by atmospheric boundary layer thickness (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-18
    Description: Systematic errors in forecast near-surface air temperature (SAT) still constitute a considerable problem for numerical weather prediction (NWP) at high latitudes. Numerous studies in the past have attempted to reduce this problem through recalibration of physical parameterization schemes and better approximation of the surface energy budget. The errors, however, remain despite notable improvements in the overall weather forecast performance. This study looks at the problem from a different perspective. It analyzes asymmetries in the SAT forecast errors. The study reveals a statistical pattern of warm SAT biases under cold weather conditions and cold SAT biases under warm weather conditions. The largest errors were found in shallow atmospheric boundary layers (ABLs). The study attributes the problem to the modeled excessive ABL thickness in northern Eurasia (the NEFI region). The ABL thickness is considered as a scaling factor controlling the efficacy of the applied surface heati...
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    Informing energy consumption uncertainty: an analysis of energy data revisions (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-18
    Description: Quality energy consumption data are important for many types of analysis, and global data sets estimate trends of county level energy consumption, derived from country reported data and regional reports. We present a novel basis for informing uncertainty in energy data by quantifying the changes in reported energy consumption as countries update their previously reported data. We use 17 editions of the British Petroleum World Energy Statistics (2001–2017) to evaluate how reported energy consumption is revised over time in aggregate coal, oil, and natural gas consumption data. We find that 70% of non-zero data points are adjusted by an average of 1.3% of a country’s total fossil fuel use in the year after their first publication. Earlier data points are revised less often, but almost half of historical trends contain some revisions in later years. The size and rate of data revisions vary over countries and fuels: coal data points have larger, less frequent revisions while oil dat...
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    Drying drives decline in muskrat population in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, Canada (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-18
    Description: Empirical and anecdotal reports suggest that muskrat are in decline across North America, including in the Peace-Athabasca Delta (‘Delta’), Canada, one of the largest inland deltas in the world and part of a World Heritage Site with ‘in Danger’ status pending. Muskrat are a key ecological indicator in the Delta. We investigate whether the large-scale loss of critical habitat over the past half-century could be driving a decline in muskrat abundance in the Delta. To do this, we use the Landsat record (1972–2017) to construct a 46 year record of inundation, and compare changes in the extent of critical habitat to the survey record for muskrat (1970–2016) over this 5500 km 2 region. Results show that the declines in critical habitat and muskrat numbers in the Delta are synchronous: ∼1450 km 2 of temporarily inundated regions that support critical habitat have diminished by ∼10 km 2 yr −1 over the past 46 years, while the muskrat population de...
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    Currently legislated decreases in nitrogen deposition will yield only limited plant species recovery in European forests (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-18
    Description: Atmospheric nitrogen (N) pollution is considered responsible for a substantial decline in plant species richness and for altered community structures in terrestrial habitats worldwide. Nitrogen affects habitats through direct toxicity, soil acidification, and in particular by favoring fast-growing species. Pressure from N pollution is decreasing in some areas. In Europe (EU28), overall emissions of NO x declined by more than 50% while NH 3 declined by less than 30% between the years 1990 and 2015, and further decreases may be achieved. The timescale over which these improvements will affect ecosystems is uncertain. Here we use 23 European forest research sites with high quality long-term data on deposition, climate, soil recovery, and understory vegetation to assess benefits of currently legislated N deposition reductions in forest understory vegetation. A dynamic soil model coupled to a statistical plant species niche model was applied with site-bas...
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    The realized warming fraction: a multi-model sensitivity study (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-18
    Description: The degree of physical-biogeochemical equilibration of the climate system determines for how long global warming will continue after anthropogenic CO 2 emissions have ceased. The physical part of this equilibration process is quantified by the realized warming fraction (RWF), but RWF estimates differ strongly between different climate models. Here we analyze the RWF spread and its physical causes in three model ensembles: 1. an ensemble of comprehensive climate models, 2. an ensemble of reduced-complexity models, and 3. an observationally constrained parameter ensemble of the Bern3D-LPX reduced-complexity model. We show that RWF is generally lower in models with higher equilibrium climate sensitivity. The RWF uncertainty from applying different extrapolation methods for climate sensitivity is substantial, but smaller than the inter-model spread in the three ensembles. We decompose the inter-model spread of RWF using a diagnostic global energy balance model, to compare ...
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    The ‘Day Zero’ Cape Town drought and the poleward migration of moisture corridors (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-18
    Description: Since 2015 the greater Cape Town area (∼3.7 million people) has been experiencing the worst drought of the last century. The combined effect of this prolonged dry period with an ever-growing demand for water culminated in the widely publicized ‘Day Zero’ water crisis. Here we show how: (i) consecutive significant decreases in rainfall during the last three winters led to the current water crisis; (ii) the 2015–2017 record breaking drought was driven by a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere moisture corridor; (iii) a displacement of the jet-stream and South Atlantic storm-track has imposed significantly drier conditions to this region. Decreasing local rainfall trends are consistent with an expansion of the semi-permanent South Atlantic high pressure, and reflected in the prevalence of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. Large-scale forcing mechanisms reveal the intensification and migration of subtropical anticyclones towards the mid-latitudes, highlighting th...
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    Stability of the arctic halocline: a new indicator of arctic climate change (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-18
    Description: In this study, we propose a new Arctic climate change indicator based on the strength of the Arctic halocline, a porous barrier between the cold and fresh upper ocean and ice and the warm intermediate Atlantic Water of the Arctic Ocean. This indicator provides a measure of the vulnerability of sea ice to upward heat fluxes from the ocean interior, as well as the efficiency of mixing affecting carbon and nutrient exchanges. It utilizes the well-accepted calculation of available potential energy (APE), which integrates anomalies of potential density from the surface downwards through the surface mixed layer to the base of the halocline. Regional APE contrasts are striking and show a strengthening of stratification in the Amerasian Basin (AB) and an overall weakening in the Eurasian Basin (EB). In contrast, Arctic-wide time series of APE is not reflective of these inter-basin contrasts. The use of two time series of APE—AB and EB—as an indicator of Arctic Ocean climate change provi...
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    The long-term relationship between emissions and economic growth for SO 2 , CO 2 , and BC (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-18
    Description: Simplified assumptions regarding the relationship between per capita income and emissions are oftentimes utilized to generate future emission scenarios in integrated assessment models (IAMs). One such relationship is an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), where emissions first increase, then decline with income growth. However, current knowledge about this relationship lacks the specificity needed for each sector and pollutant pairing, which is important for future emission scenarios. To fill this knowledge gap, we analyze the historical relationship between per capita income and emissions of SO 2 , CO 2 , and black carbon (BC) utilizing widely-used global, country-level emission inventories for the following four sectors: power, industry, residential, and transportation. Based on a modeling setup using long-term growth rates, emissions of SO 2 from the power and industrial sectors, as well as CO 2 from the industrial and the residential sect...
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    The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-19
    Description: We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.
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    Adapting attribution science to the climate extremes of tomorrow (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-19
    Description: Increasing risks of extreme weather events are the most noticeable and damaging manifestation of anthropogenic climate change. In the aftermath of an extreme event, policymakers are often called upon to make timely and sensitive decisions about rebuilding and managing present and future risks. Information regarding whether, where, and how present day and future risks are changing is needed to adequately inform these decisions. But this information is often not available on the temporal and spatial scales decisions are made. In particular, decision makers require information about both historical changes and plausible future changes in the severity and frequency of extreme weather in a seamless way. However, applying the same methods from event attribution to future projections by defining events based on present day frequency of occurrence leads to potentially misleading estimates of future changes in a warmer climate. We demonstrate that this is fundamentally a consequence of r...
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    Reply to comment on ‘Does replacing coal with wood lower CO 2 emissions? Dynamic lifecycle analysis of wood bioenergy’ (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-19
    Description: We respond to Prisley et al’s (2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 128002) critique of Sterman et al (2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 015007), which found that using wood to produce electricity can worsen climate change at least through 2100, even if wood displaces coal. The result arises because (1) wood generates more CO 2 /kWh than coal, creating an initial carbon debt; (2) regrowth of harvested land can remove CO 2 from the atmosphere, but takes time and is not certain; and (3) until the carbon debt is repaid, atmospheric CO 2 is higher, increasing radiative forcing and worsening climate change long after the initial carbon debt is repaid by new growth. We correct several errors in Prisley et al ’s critique, and show that our results are robust to the harvest and land management practices they prefer.
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    A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-19
    Description: This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming ‘pause’ in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for ‘pauses’, both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a ‘pause’ defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval (‘broken’ trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical ...
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    Data center growth in the United States: decoupling the demand for services from electricity use (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-19
    Description: Data centers are energy intensive buildings that have grown in size and number to meet the increasing demands of a digital economy. This paper presents a bottom-up model to estimate data center electricity demand in the United States over a 20 year period and examines observed and projected electricity use trends in the context of changing data center operations. Results indicate a rapidly increasing electricity demand at the turn of the century that has significantly subsided to a nearly steady annual electricity use of about 70 billion kWh in recent years. While data center workloads continue to grow exponentially, comparable increases in electricity demand have been avoided through the adoption of key energy efficiency measures and a shift towards large cloud-based service providers. Alternative projections from the model illustrate the wide range in potential electricity that could be consumed to support data centers, with the US data center workload demand estimated for 202...
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    Diminishing clear winter skies in Beijing towards a possible future (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-19
    Description: Severe haze during the winter season has been troubling the citizens of Beijing over the past few decades, and the trend seems to be continuing. However, occasionally such as the winter of 2017 (2017/12–2018/2), one would be amazed to see unusually few hazy days throughout the winter that brings memories of a long past. It is controversial to say whether such a nowadays-rare event is a result of policy-driven emission cuts or an opportunity brought about by natural climate variability. This paper investigates the probability of such anomalous atmospheric circulation events in winter from a climate perspective. Based on updated observations, only three winters during the past 38 years are found to be similar to that of 2017. These events were accompanied by a strong Siberian High to the north and cold anomalies in the mid-lower troposphere in association with a strong East Asian Trough, which favored the strengthening of northwesterly winds and effective ventilation. The occurren...
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    Asymmetric dynamical ocean responses in warming icehouse and cooling greenhouse climates (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-19
    Description: Warm periods in Earth’s history tend to cool more slowly than cool periods warm. Here we explore initial differences in how the global ocean takes up and gives up heat and carbon in forced rapid warming and cooling climate scenarios. We force an intermediate-complexity earth system model using two atmospheric CO 2 scenarios. A ramp-up (1% per year increase in atmospheric CO 2 for 150 years) starts from an average global CO 2 concentration of 285 ppm to represent warming of an icehouse climate. A ramp-down (1% per year decrease in atmospheric CO 2 for 150 years) starts from an average global CO 2 concentration of 1257 ppm to represent cooling of a greenhouse climate. Atmospheric CO 2 is then held constant in each simulation and the model is integrated an additional 350 years. The ramp-down simulation shows a weaker response of surface air temperature to changes in radiative forcing relative to the ramp-up scenario. This ...
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    The role of biomass in China’s long-term mitigation toward the Paris climate goals (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-19
    Description: Biomass is a crucial option of substituting fossil fuels to reduce emissions, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) allows for obtaining net-negative emissions. We explore the role of biomass in China’s long-term mitigation toward the Paris climate goals in light of three narratives and five mitigation scenarios, modeling by a refined Global Change Assessment Model. While presenting a limited contribution to achieving China’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), biomass plays an important role in China’s post-NDC mitigation toward the Paris climate goals. All the assessed scenarios call for extensive biomass use, accounting for 6.5%–28% of China’s 2100 primary energy in our three 2 °C scenarios and 15%–30% in our two 1.5 °C scenarios. The exact biomass deployment trajectories tend to depend greatly on how China envisages national mitigation paces and BECCS strategies. For either 2 °C or 1.5 °C, a smaller negative-emission narrative, which means a more rapid ...
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    Comment on ‘Does replacing coal with wood lower CO 2 emissions? Dynamic lifecycle analysis of wood bioenergy’ (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-12-19
    Description: An analysis by Sterman et al (2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 015007) suggests that use of wood for bioenergy production results in a worse climate outcome than from using coal. However, many of the assumptions on which their primary wood bioenergy scenario is based are not realistic and therefore are not informative. Assumptions of uncharacteristically long rotations for southern pine plantations, no utilization of wood for longer-duration products, and a single harvest over 100 years understate the carbon performance of current forest management practices. We provide references that support realistic modeling of forest carbon dynamics that are reflective of current practice and therefore more informative.
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    Modeling the role of preferential snow accumulation in through talik development and hillslope groundwater flow in a transitional permafrost landscape (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-18
    Description: Through taliks—thawed zones extending through the entire permafrost layer—represent a critical type of heterogeneity that affects water redistribution and heat transport, especially in sloping landscapes. The formation of through taliks as part of the transition from continuous to discontinuous permafrost creates new hydrologic pathways connecting the active layer to sub-permafrost regions, with significant hydrological and biogeochemical consequences. At hilly field sites in the southern Seward Peninsula, AK, patches of deep snow in tall shrubs are associated with higher winter ground temperatures and an anomalously deep active layer. To better understand the thermal-hydrologic controls and consequences of through taliks, we used the coupled surface/subsurface permafrost hydrology model ATS (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator) to simulate through taliks associated with preferentially distributing snow. Scenarios were developed based on an intensively studied hillslope transect on t...
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    Striking divergences in Earth Observation products may limit their use for REDD+ (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-10-19
    Description: Countries are required to generate baselines of carbon emissions, or Forest Reference Emission Levels, for implementing REDD+ under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and to access results-based payments. Developing these baselines requires accurate maps of carbon stocks and historical deforestation. Global remote sensing products provide low-cost solutions for this information, but there has been little validation of these products at national scales. This study compares the ability of currently available products obtained from remote sensing data to deliver estimates of deforestation and associated carbon emissions in Guinea-Bissau, a West African country encompassing the climate and vegetation gradients that are typical of sub-Saharan Africa. We show that disagreements in estimates of deforestation are striking, and this variation leads to high uncertainty in derived emissions. For Guinea-Bissau, we suggest that higher temporal resolution of remote sens...
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    Ecosystem services bundles: challenges and opportunities for implementation and further research (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-11-02
    Description: Background : the concept of ‘ecosystem services bundles’, i.e. ecosystem services that repeatedly appear together across space and/or time, has been developed and refined as part of an integrated approach to assess interactions between ecosystem services. Nevertheless, published evidence of actual use of bundles in decision-making is lacking. In the light of this gap, a review of what bundle approaches have shown and what they can bring to decision-making is timely. Method : we conducted two separate systematic reviews. The first one addressed emerging issues within what we identify as the diverse utilisation and definition of the concept of ‘bundle’ in the literature. The second one focused on papers dealing with bundles as sets of consistently associated services. Review Synthesis : the review first highlights that the confusion surrounding the term ‘bundle’ in ecosystem services literature threatens to weaken the potential for analysis of bundles to inform ...
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    Fire and tree death: understanding and improving modeling of fire-induced tree mortality (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-11-16
    Description: Each year wildland fires kill and injure trees on millions of forested hectares globally, affecting plant and animal biodiversity, carbon storage, hydrologic processes, and ecosystem services. The underlying mechanisms of fire-caused tree mortality remain poorly understood, however, limiting the ability to accurately predict mortality and develop robust modeling applications, especially under novel future climates. Virtually all post-fire tree mortality prediction systems are based on the same underlying empirical model described in Ryan and Reinhardt (1988 Can. J. For. Res. 18 1291–7), which was developed from a limited number of species, stretching model assumptions beyond intended limits. We review the current understanding of the mechanisms of fire-induced tree mortality, provide recommended standardized terminology, describe model applications and limitations, and conclude with key knowledge gaps and future directions for research. We suggest a two-pronged app...
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    Dryland belt of Northern Eurasia: contemporary environmental changes and their consequences (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-11-16
    Description: The dryland belt (DLB) in Northern Eurasia is the largest contiguous dryland on Earth. During the last century, changes here have included land use change (e.g. expansion of croplands and cities), resource extraction (e.g. coal, ores, oil, and gas), rapid institutional shifts (e.g. collapse of the Soviet Union), climatic changes, and natural disturbances (e.g. wildfires, floods, and dust storms). These factors intertwine, overlap, and sometimes mitigate, but can sometimes feedback upon each other to exacerbate their synergistic and cumulative effects. Thus, it is important to properly document each of these external and internal factors and to characterize the structural relationships among them in order to develop better approaches to alleviating negative consequences of these regional environmental changes. This paper addresses the climatic changes observed over the DLB in recent decades and outlines possible links of these changes (both impacts and feedback) with other extern...
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    Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level (2018)
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    Publication Date: 2018-11-24
    Description: This study assesses the flood characteristics (timing, magnitude and frequency) in the pre-industrial and historical periods, and analyzes climate change impacts on floods at the warming levels of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level in four large river basins as required by the Paris agreement. Three well-established hydrological models (HMs) were forced with bias-corrected outputs from four global climate models (GCMs) for the pre-industrial, historical and future periods until 2100. The long pre-industrial and historical periods were subdivided into multiple 31-year subperiods to investigate the natural variability. The mean flood characteristics in the pre-industrial period were derived from the large ensemble based on all GCMs, HMs and 31-year subperiods, and compared to the ensemble means in the historical and future periods. In general, the variance of simulated flood characteristics is quite large in the pre-industrial and historical periods. Mostly GCMs and...
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    Effectiveness of regulatory policy in curbing deforestation in a biodiversity hotspot (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-11-24
    Description: Recent rates of deforestation on private lands in Australia rival deforestation hotspots around the world, despite conservation policies in place to avert deforestation. This study uses causal impact estimation techniques to determine if a controversial conservation policy—the Vegetation Management Act (VMA)—has successfully reduced deforestation of remnant trees in the Brigalow Belt South, a 21.6 Mha biodiversity hotspot in Queensland. We use covariate matching to determine the regulatory effect of the policy on deforestation rates over time, compared to two counterfactual scenarios representing upper and lower estimates of policy impact. The VMA significantly reduced the rate of remnant deforestation in the highest impact scenario, saving 17, 729 ± 1733 ha during 2000–2016. In the lowest scenario, ‘panic clearing’ before and after enactment of the VMA minimized the amount of remnant forests saved and may have marginally increased deforestation relative to the counterfactual (−...
    Print ISSN: 1748-9318
    Electronic ISSN: 1748-9326
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Published by Institute of Physics (IOP)
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  • 97
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    Strategies for near-term scale-up of cellulosic biofuel production using sorghum and crop residues in the US (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-11-24
    Description: The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) initially set ambitious goals for US cellulosic biofuel production and, although the total renewable fuel volume reached 80% of the established target for 2017, the cellulosic fuel volume reached just 5% of the original goal. This shortfall has, in part, been ascribed to the hesitance of farmers to plant the high-yielding, low-input perennial biomass crops identified as otherwise ideal feedstocks. Policy and market uncertainty also hinder investment in capital-intensive new cellulosic biorefineries. This study combines remote sensing land use data, yield predictions, a fine-resolution geospatial modeling framework, and a novel facility siting algorithm to evaluate the potential for near-term scale-up of cellulosic fuel production using a combination of lower-risk annual feedstocks more familiar to US farmers: corn stover and biomass sorghum. Potential strategies include expansion or retrofitting of existing corn ethanol facilities and targeted c...
    Print ISSN: 1748-9318
    Electronic ISSN: 1748-9326
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 98
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    Interactions between social learning and technological learning in electric vehicle futures (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-11-24
    Description: The transition to electric vehicles is an important strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars. Modelling future pathways helps identify critical drivers and uncertainties. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been used extensively to analyse climate mitigation policy. IAMs emphasise technological change processes but are largely silent on important social and behavioural dimensions to future technological transitions. Here, we develop a novel conceptual framing and empirical evidence base on social learning processes relevant for vehicle adoption. We then implement this formulation of social learning in IMAGE, a widely-used global IAM. We apply this new modelling approach to analyse how technological learning and social learning interact to influence electric vehicle transition dynamics. We find that technological learning and social learning processes can be mutually reinforcing. Increased electric vehicle market shares can induce technologic...
    Print ISSN: 1748-9318
    Electronic ISSN: 1748-9326
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 99
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    Non-uniform seasonal warming regulates vegetation greening and atmospheric CO 2 amplification over northern lands (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-11-28
    Description: The enhanced vegetation growth by climate warming plays a pivotal role in amplifying the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 at northern lands (〉50° N) since 1960s. However, the correlation between vegetation growth, temperature and seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO 2 concentration have become elusive with the slowed increasing trend of vegetation growth and weakened temperature control on CO 2 uptake since late 1990s. Here, based on in situ atmospheric CO 2 concentration records from the Barrow observatory site, we found a slowdown in the increasing trend of the atmospheric CO 2 amplitude from 1990s to mid-2000s. This phenomenon was associated with the paused decrease in the minimum CO 2 concentration ([CO 2 ] min ), which was significantly correlated with the slowdown of vegetation greening and growing-season length extension. We then showed that both the vegetation greenness and growing-...
    Print ISSN: 1748-9318
    Electronic ISSN: 1748-9326
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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    Pollution and economic development: an empirical research review (2018)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2018-11-30
    Description: Pollution and the economy seem to have been inextricably linked throughout human history. Yet the relationship between environmental harm and economic development is complex and its understanding has been fragmented by disciplinary biases. Economists and environmental scientists have diverged on the urgency of abatement mechanisms and the marginal returns on investment on control technologies and social adaptations. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis has dominated this discourse, but is only one part of a broader pollution-economy nexus. As we consider a societal shift towards a circular economy, there is a need to consider a more integrated framework for analyzing the empirical evidence that connects pollution and economic development, and its implications for human well-being and the achievement of the sustainable development goals. This paper develops the main connections between pollution and economic development by reviewing the existing empirical evidence in the li...
    Print ISSN: 1748-9318
    Electronic ISSN: 1748-9326
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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