ALBERT

Description: The Mozambique Ridge, a prominent basement high in the southwestern Indian Ocean, consists of four major geomorphological segments associated with numerous phases of volcanic activity in the Lower Cretaceous. The nature and origin of the Mozambique Ridge have been intensely debated with one hypothesis suggesting a Large Igneous Province origin. High-resolution seismic reflection data reveal a large number of extrusion centres with a random distribution throughout the southern Mozambique Ridge and the nearby Transkei Rise. Intra-basement reflections emerge from the extrusion centres and are interpreted to represent massive lava flow sequences. Such lava flow sequences are characteristic of eruptions leading to the formation of continental and oceanic flood basalt provinces, hence supporting a Large Igneous Province origin of the Mozambique Ridge. We observe evidence for widespread post-sedimentary magmatic activity that we correlate with a southward propagation of the East African Rift System. Based on our volumetric analysis of the southern Mozambique Ridge we infer a rapid sequential emplacement between ~131 Ma and ~125 Ma, which is similar to the short formation periods of other Large Igneous Provinces like the Agulhas Plateau.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Molecular Biology and Evolution 34 (2017): 1890-1901, doi:10.1093/molbev/msx125.

Description: The highly conserved ADAR enzymes, found in all multicellular metazoans, catalyze the editing of mRNA transcripts by the deamination of adenosines to inosines. This type of editing has two general outcomes: site specific editing, which frequently leads to recoding, and clustered editing, which is usually found in transcribed genomic repeats. Here, for the first time, we looked for both editing of isolated sites and clustered, non-specific sites in a basal metazoan, the coral Acropora millepora during spawning event, in order to reveal its editing pattern. We found that the coral editome resembles the mammalian one: it contains more than 500,000 sites, virtually all of which are clustered in non-coding regions that are enriched for predicted dsRNA structures. RNA editing levels were increased during spawning and increased further still in newly released gametes. This may suggest that editing plays a role in introducing variability in coral gametes.

Description: This work was supported by the Australian Research Council (to PK), the European Research Council (grant 311257), the I-CORE Program of the Planning and Budgeting Committee in Israel (grants 41/11 and 1796/12), and the Israel Science Foundation (1380/14).

Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of Oxford University Press for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Journal International 208 (2017): 1026-1042, doi:10.1093/gji/ggw435.

Description: In recent years, marine controlled source electromagnetics (CSEM) has found increasing use in hydrocarbon exploration due to its ability to detect thin resistive zones beneath the seafloor. It is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the physics of CSEM for an ocean whose electrical thickness is comparable to or much thinner than that of the overburden using the in-line configuration through examination of the elliptically polarized seafloor electric field, the time-averaged energy flow depicted by the real part of the complex Poynting vector, energy dissipation through Joule heating and the Fréchet derivatives of the seafloor field with respect to the subseafloor conductivity that is assumed to be isotropic. The deep water (ocean layer electrically much thicker than the overburden) seafloor EM response for a model containing a resistive reservoir layer has a greater amplitude and reduced phase as a function of offset compared to that for a half-space, or a stronger and faster response. For an ocean whose electrical thickness is comparable to or much smaller than that of the overburden, the electric field displays a greater amplitude and reduced phase at small offsets, shifting to a stronger amplitude and increased phase at intermediate offsets and a weaker amplitude and enhanced phase at long offsets, or a stronger and faster response that first changes to stronger and slower, and then transitions to weaker and slower. These transitions can be understood by visualizing the energy flow throughout the structure caused by the competing influences of the dipole source and guided energy flow in the reservoir layer, and the air interaction caused by coupling of the entire subseafloor resistivity structure with the sea surface. A stronger and faster response occurs when guided energy flow is dominant, while a weaker and slower response occurs when the air interaction is dominant. However, at intermediate offsets for some models, the air interaction can partially or fully reverse the direction of energy flux in the reservoir layer toward rather than away from the source, resulting in a stronger and slower response. The Fréchet derivatives are dominated by preferential sensitivity to the reservoir layer conductivity for all water depths except at high frequencies, but also display a shift with offset from the galvanic to the inductive mode in the underburden and overburden due to the interplay of guided energy flow and the air interaction. This means that the sensitivity to the horizontal conductivity is almost as strong as to the vertical component in the shallow parts of the subsurface, and in fact is stronger than the vertical sensitivity deeper down. However, the sensitivity to horizontal conductivity is still weak compared to the vertical component within thin resistive regions. The horizontal sensitivity is gradually decreased when the water becomes deep. These observations in part explain the success of shallow towed CSEM using only measurements of the in-line component of the electric field.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Bioscience 67 (2017): 760–768, doi:10.1093/biosci/bix059.

Description: As the sampling frequency and resolution of Earth observation imagery increase, there are growing opportunities for novel applications in population monitoring. New methods are required to apply established analytical approaches to data collected from new observation platforms (e.g., satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles). Here, we present a method that estimates regional seasonal abundances for an understudied and growing population of gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) in southeastern Massachusetts, using opportunistic observations in Google Earth imagery. Abundance estimates are derived from digital aerial survey counts by adapting established correction-based analyses with telemetry behavioral observation to quantify survey biases. The result is a first regional understanding of gray seal abundance in the northeast US through opportunistic Earth observation imagery and repurposed animal telemetry data. As species observation data from Earth observation imagery become more ubiquitous, such methods provide a robust, adaptable, and cost-effective solution to monitoring animal colonies and understanding species abundances.

Description: We would like to thank generous support from International Fund for Animal Welfare, the Bureau of Ocean Energy, and the Oak Foundation for funding support for the telemetry devices.

Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of Oxford University Press for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Journal International 211 (2017): 1046–1061, doi:10.1093/gji/ggx360.

Description: In recent years, marine controlled source electromagnetics (CSEM) has found increasing use in hydrocarbon exploration due to its ability to detect thin resistive zones beneath the seafloor. It is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the physics of CSEM for an ocean whose electrical thickness is comparable to or much thinner than that of the overburden using the in-line configuration through examination of the elliptically-polarized seafloor electric field, the time-averaged energy flow depicted by the real part of the complex Poynting vector, energy dissipation through Joule heating and the Fréchet derivatives of the seafloor field with respect to the sub-seafloor conductivity that is assumed to be transversely anisotropic, with a vertical-to-horizontal resistivity ratio of 3:1. For an ocean whose electrical thickness is comparable to that of the overburden, the seafloor electromagnetic response for a model containing a resistive reservoir layer has a greater amplitude and reduced phase as a function of offset compared to that for a halfspace, or a stronger and faster response, and displays little to no evidence for the air interaction. For an ocean whose electrical thickness is much smaller than that of the overburden, the electric field displays a greater amplitude and reduced phase at small offsets, shifting to a stronger amplitude and increased phase at intermediate offsets, and a weaker amplitude and enhanced phase at long offsets, or a stronger and faster response that first changes to stronger and slower, and then transitions to weaker and slower. By comparison to the isotropic case with the same horizontal conductivity, transverse anisotropy stretches the Poynting vector and the electric field response from a thin resistive layer to much longer offsets. These phenomena can be understood by visualizing the energy flow throughout the structure caused by the competing influences of the dipole source and guided energy flow in the reservoir layer, and the air interaction caused by coupling of the entire sub-seafloor resistivity structure with the sea surface. The Fréchet derivatives are dominated by preferential sensitivity to the vertical conductivity in the reservoir layer and overburden at short offsets. The horizontal conductivity Fréchet derivatives are weaker than to comparable to the vertical derivatives at long offsets in the substrate. This means that the sensitivity to the horizontal conductivity is present in the shallow parts of the subsurface. In the presence of transverse anisotropy, it is necessary to go to higher frequencies to sense the horizontal conductivity in the overburden as compared to an isotropic model with the same horizontal conductivity. These observations in part explain the success of shallow towed CSEM using only measurements of the in-line component of the electric field.

Description: This work was supported at WHOI by an Independent Research and Development award, and by the Walter A. and Hope Noyes Smith Chair for Excellence in Oceanography.

Description: A major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry, and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry, is the poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Although much progress has been made in consistently modeling the ice-sheet evolution throughout the last glacial cycle, as well as the induced bedrock deformation caused by these load changes, forward models of GIA remain ambiguous due to the lack of observational constraints on the ice sheet's past extent and thickness and mantle rheology beneath the continent. As an alternative to forward-modeling GIA, we estimate GIA from multiple space-geodetic observations: Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), Envisat/ICESat and Global Positioning System (GPS). Making use of the different sensitivities of the respective satellite observations to current and past surface-mass (ice mass) change and solid Earth processes, we estimate GIA based on viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing. We calculate and distribute the viscoelastic response functions according to estimates of the variability of lithosphere thickness and mantle viscosity in Antarctica. We compare our GIA estimate with published GIA corrections and evaluate its impact in determining the ice-mass balance in Antarctica from GRACE and satellite altimetry. Particular focus is applied to the Amundsen Sea Sector in West Antarctica, where uplift rates of several centimetres per year have been measured by GPS. We show that most of this uplift is caused by the rapid viscoelastic response to recent ice-load changes, enabled by the presence of a low-viscosity upper mantle in West Antarctica. This paper presents the second and final contributions summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study, REGINA (www.regina-science.eu).

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Genome Biology and Evolution 9 (2017): 659-676, doi:10.1093/gbe/evx023.

Description: Understanding and predicting the fate of populations in changing environments require knowledge about the mechanisms that support phenotypic plasticity and the adaptive value and evolutionary fate of genetic variation within populations. Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) exhibit extensive phenotypic plasticity that supports large population sizes in highly fluctuating estuarine environments. Populations have also evolved diverse local adaptations. To yield insights into the genomic variation that supports their adaptability, we sequenced a reference genome and 48 additional whole genomes from a wild population. Evolution of genes associated with cell cycle regulation and apoptosis is accelerated along the killifish lineage, which is likely tied to adaptations for life in highly variable estuarine environments. Genome-wide standing genetic variation, including nucleotide diversity and copy number variation, is extremely high. The highest diversity genes are those associated with immune function and olfaction, whereas genes under greatest evolutionary constraint are those associated with neurological, developmental, and cytoskeletal functions. Reduced genetic variation is detected for tight junction proteins, which in killifish regulate paracellular permeability that supports their extreme physiological flexibility. Low-diversity genes engage in more regulatory interactions than high-diversity genes, consistent with the influence of pleiotropic constraint on molecular evolution. High genetic variation is crucial for continued persistence of species given the pace of contemporary environmental change. Killifish populations harbor among the highest levels of nucleotide diversity yet reported for a vertebrate species, and thus may serve as a useful model system for studying evolutionary potential in variable and changing environments.

Description: This work was primarily supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (collaborative research grants DEB-1265282, DEB-1120512, DEB-1120013, DEB-1120263, DEB-1120333, DEB-1120398 to J.K.C., D.L.C., M.E.H., S.I.K., M.F.O., J.R.S., W.W., and A.W.). Further support was provided by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (1R01ES021934-01 to A.W., P42ES7373 to T.H.H., P42ES007381 to M.E.H., and R01ES019324 to J.R.S.), the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (P20GM103423 and P20GM104318 to B.L.K.), and the National Science Foundation (DBI-0640462 and XSEDE-MCB100147 to D.G.).

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Conservation Physiology 5 (2017): cox061, doi:10.1093/conphys/cox061.

Description: Recent studies have demonstrated that some hormones are present in baleen powder from bowhead (Balaena mysticetus) and North Atlantic right (Eubalaena glacialis) whales. To test the potential generalizability of this technique for studies of stress and reproduction in large whales, we sought to determine whether all major classes of steroid and thyroid hormones are detectable in baleen, and whether these hormones are detectable in other mysticetes. Powdered baleen samples were recovered from single specimens of North Atlantic right, bowhead, blue (Balaenoptera [B.]musculus), sei (B. borealis), minke (B. acutorostrata), fin (B. physalus), humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) and gray (Eschrichtius robustus) whales. Hormones were extracted with a methanol vortex method, after which we tested all species with commercial enzyme immunoassays (EIAs, Arbor Assays) for progesterone, testosterone, 17β-estradiol, cortisol, corticosterone, aldosterone, thyroxine and tri-iodothyronine, representing a wide array of steroid and thyroid hormones of interest for whale physiology research. In total, 64 parallelism tests (8 species × 8 hormones) were evaluated to verify good binding affinity of the assay antibodies to hormones in baleen. We also tested assay accuracy, although available sample volume limited this test to progesterone, testosterone and cortisol. All tested hormones were detectable in baleen powder of all species, and all assays passed parallelism and accuracy tests. Although only single individuals were tested, the consistent detectability of all hormones in all species indicates that baleen hormone analysis is likely applicable to a broad range of mysticetes, and that the EIA kits tested here perform well with baleen extract. Quantification of hormones in baleen may be a suitable technique with which to explore questions that have historically been difficult to address in large whales, including pregnancy and inter-calving interval, age of sexual maturation, timing and duration of seasonal reproductive cycles, adrenal physiology and metabolic rate.

Description: This work was supported by (1) the Center for Bioengineering Innovation at Northern Arizona University and (2) the New England Aquarium.

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉Seismic free oscillations, or normal modes, provide a convenient tool to calculate low-frequency seismograms in heterogeneous Earth models. A procedure called ‘full mode coupling’ allows the seismic response of the Earth to be computed. However, in order to be theoretically exact, such calculations must involve an infinite set of modes. In practice, only a finite subset of modes can be used, introducing an error into the seismograms. By systematically increasing the number of modes beyond the highest frequency of interest in the seismograms, we investigate the convergence of full-coupling calculations. As a rule-of-thumb, it is necessary to couple modes 1–2 mHz above the highest frequency of interest, although results depend upon the details of the Earth model. This is significantly higher than has previously been assumed. Observations of free oscillations also provide important constraints on the heterogeneous structure of the Earth. Historically, this inference problem has been addressed by the measurement and interpretation of splitting functions. These can be seen as secondary data extracted from low frequency seismograms. The measurement step necessitates the calculation of synthetic seismograms, but current implementations rely on approximations referred to as self- or group-coupling and do not use fully accurate seismograms. We therefore also investigate whether a systematic error might be present in currently published splitting functions. We find no evidence for any systematic bias, but published uncertainties must be doubled to properly account for the errors due to theoretical omissions and regularization in the measurement process. Correspondingly, uncertainties in results derived from splitting functions must also be increased. As is well known, density has only a weak signal in low-frequency seismograms. Our results suggest this signal is of similar scale to the true uncertainties associated with currently published splitting functions. Thus, it seems that great care must be taken in any attempt to robustly infer details of Earth's density structure using current splitting functions.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉In this paper, we propose a new wavelet-based 3-D inversion method for frequency-domain airborne electromagnetic (FDAEM) data. Instead of inverting the model in the space domain using a smoothing constraint, this new method recovers the model in the wavelet domain based on a sparsity constraint. In the wavelet domain, the model is represented by two types of coefficients, which contain both large- and fine-scale informations of the model, meaning the wavelet-domain inversion has inherent multiresolution. In order to accomplish a sparsity constraint, we minimize an L〈sub〉1〈/sub〉-norm measure in the wavelet domain that mostly gives a sparse solution. The final inversion system is solved by an iteratively reweighted least-squares method. We investigate different orders of Daubechies wavelets to accomplish our inversion algorithm, and test them on synthetic frequency-domain AEM data set. The results show that higher order wavelets having larger vanishing moments and regularity can deliver a more stable inversion process and give better local resolution, while the lower order wavelets are simpler and less smooth, and thus capable of recovering sharp discontinuities if the model is simple. At last, we test this new inversion algorithm on a frequency-domain helicopter EM (HEM) field data set acquired in Byneset, Norway. Wavelet-based 3-D inversion of HEM data is compared to L〈sub〉2〈/sub〉-norm-based 3-D inversion's result to further investigate the features of the new method.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉A monitoring method to grasp the spatio-temporal change in the interplate coupling in a subduction zone based on the spatial gradients of surface displacement rate fields is proposed. I estimated the spatio-temporal change in the interplate coupling along the plate boundary in northeastern (NE) Japan by applying the proposed method to the surface displacement rates based on global positioning system observations. The gradient of the surface velocities is calculated in each swath configured along the direction normal to the Japan Trench for time windows such as 0.5, 1, 2, 3 and 5 yr being shifted by one week during the period of 1997–2016. The gradient of the horizontal velocities is negative and has a large magnitude when the interplate coupling at the shallow part (less than approximately 50 km in depth) beneath the profile is strong, and the sign of the gradient of the vertical velocity is sensitive to the existence of the coupling at the deep part (greater than approximately 50 km in depth). The trench-parallel variation of the spatial gradients of a displacement rate field clearly corresponds to the trench-parallel variation of the amplitude of the interplate coupling on the plate interface, as well as the rupture areas of previous interplate earthquakes. Temporal changes in the trench-parallel variation of the spatial gradient of the displacement rate correspond to the strengthening or weakening of the interplate coupling. We can monitor the temporal change in the interplate coupling state by calculating the spatial gradients of the surface displacement rate field to some extent without performing inversion analyses with applying certain constraint conditions that sometimes cause over- and/or underestimation at areas of limited spatial resolution far from the observation network. The results of the calculation confirm known interplate events in the NE Japan subduction zone, such as the post-seismic slip of the 2003 M8.0 Tokachi-oki and 2005 M7.2 Miyagi-oki earthquakes and the recovery of the interplate coupling around the rupture area of the 1994 M7.6 Sanriku-Haruka-oki earthquake. The results also indicate the semi-periodic occurrence of slow slip events and the expansion of the area of slow slip events before the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake (M9.0) approaching the hypocentre of the Tohoku-oki earthquake.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉We image the internal structure of the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) in the trifurcation area southeast of Anza, California, with seismic records from dense linear and rectangular arrays. The examined data include recordings from more than 20 000 local earthquakes and nine teleseismic events. Automatic detection algorithms and visual inspection are used to identify 〈span〉P〈/span〉 and 〈span〉S〈/span〉 body waves, along with 〈span〉P〈/span〉- and 〈span〉S〈/span〉-types fault zone trapped waves (FZTW). The location at depth of the main branch of the SJFZ, the Clark fault, is identified from systematic waveform changes across lines of sensors within the dense rectangular array. Delay times of 〈span〉P〈/span〉 arrivals from teleseismic and local events indicate damage asymmetry across the fault, with higher damage to the NE, producing a local reversal of the velocity contrast in the shallow crust with respect to the large-scale structure. A portion of the damage zone between the main fault and a second mapped surface trace to the NE generates 〈span〉P〈/span〉- and 〈span〉S〈/span〉-types FZTW. Inversions of high-quality 〈span〉S〈/span〉-type FZTW indicate that the most likely parameters of the trapping structure are width of ∼70 m, 〈span〉S〈/span〉-wave velocity reduction of 60 per cent, 〈span〉Q〈/span〉 value of 60 and depth of ∼2 km. The local reversal of the shallow velocity contrast across the fault with respect to large-scale structure is consistent with preferred propagation of earthquake ruptures in the area to the NW.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉The computational cost of quasi-〈span〉P〈/span〉 wave extrapolation depends on the complexity of the medium, and specifically the anisotropy. Our effective-model method splits the anisotropic dispersion relation into an isotropic background and a correction factor to handle this dependency. The correction term depends on the slope (measured using the gradient) of current wavefields and the anisotropy. As a result, the computational cost is independent of the nature of anisotropy, which makes the extrapolation efficient. A dynamic implementation of this approach decomposes the original pseudo-differential operator into a Laplacian, handled using the low-rank approximation of the spectral operator, plus an angular dependent correction factor applied in the space domain to correct for anisotropy. We analyse the role played by the correction factor and propose a new spherical decomposition of the dispersion relation. The proposed method provides accurate wavefields in phase and more balanced amplitudes than a previous spherical decomposition. Also, it is free of 〈span〉SV〈/span〉-wave artefacts. Applications to a simple homogeneous transverse isotropic medium with a vertical symmetry axis (VTI) and a modified Hess VTI model demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. The Reverse Time Migration applied to a modified BP VTI model reveals that the anisotropic migration using the proposed modelling engine performs better than an isotropic migration.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉Over the past 15 yr, numerical models of convection in Earth’s mantle have made a leap forward: they can now produce self-consistent plate-like behaviour at the surface together with deep mantle circulation. These digital tools provide a new window into the intimate connections between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and can therefore be used for tectonic predictions, in principle. This contribution explores this assumption. First, initial conditions at 30, 20, 10 and 0 Ma are generated by driving a convective flow with imposed plate velocities at the surface. We then compute instantaneous mantle flows in response to the guessed temperature fields without imposing any boundary conditions. Plate boundaries self-consistently emerge at correct locations with respect to reconstructions, except for small plates close to subduction zones. As already observed for other types of instantaneous flow calculations, the structure of the top boundary layer and upper-mantle slab is the dominant character that leads to accurate predictions of surface velocities. Perturbations of the rheological parameters have little impact on the resulting surface velocities. We then compute fully dynamic model evolution from 30 and 10 to 0 Ma, without imposing plate boundaries or plate velocities. Contrary to instantaneous calculations, errors in kinematic predictions are substantial, although the plate layout and kinematics in several areas remain consistent with the expectations for the Earth. For these calculations, varying the rheological parameters makes a difference for plate boundary evolution. Also, identified errors in initial conditions contribute to first-order kinematic errors. This experiment shows that the tectonic predictions of dynamic models over 10 My are highly sensitive to uncertainties of rheological parameters and initial temperature field in comparison to instantaneous flow calculations. Indeed, the initial conditions and the rheological parameters can be good enough for an accurate prediction of instantaneous flow, but not for a prediction after 10 My of evolution. Therefore, inverse methods (sequential or data assimilation methods) using short-term fully dynamic evolution that predict surface kinematics are promising tools for a better understanding of the state of the Earth’s mantle.〈/span〉

Description: We investigate the impact of the new LUNA rate for the nuclear reaction 22 Ne( p , ) 23 Na on the chemical ejecta of intermediate-mass stars, with particular focus on the thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) stars that experience hot-bottom burning. To this aim, we use the PARSEC and COLIBRI codes to compute the complete evolution, from the pre-main sequence up to the termination of the TP-AGB phase, of a set of stellar models with initial masses in the range 3.0–6.0 M and metallicities Z i = 0.0005, 0.006 and 0.014. We find that the new LUNA measures have much reduced the nuclear uncertainties of the 22 Ne and 23 Na AGB ejecta that drop from factors of ~=10 to only a factor of few for the lowest metallicity models. Relying on the most recent estimations for the destruction rate of 23 Na, the uncertainties that still affect the 22 Ne and 23 Na AGB ejecta are mainly dominated by the evolutionary aspects (efficiency of mass-loss, third dredge-up, convection). Finally, we discuss how the LUNA results impact on the hypothesis that invokes massive AGB stars as the main agents of the observed O–Na anticorrelation in Galactic globular clusters. We derive quantitative indications on the efficiencies of key physical processes (mass-loss, third dredge-up, sodium destruction) in order to simultaneously reproduce both the Na-rich, O-poor extreme of the anticorrelation and the observational constraints on the CNO abundance. Results for the corresponding chemical ejecta are made publicly available.

Description: We fitted the 3–180 keV spectrum of all the observations of the neutron star low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1636–53 taken with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer using a model that includes a thermal Comptonization component. We found that in the low hard state the power-law index of this component, , gradually increases as the source moves in the colour–colour diagram. When the source undergoes a transition from the hard to the soft state drops abruptly; once the source is in the soft state increases again and then decreases gradually as the source spectrum softens further. The changes in , together with changes of the electron temperature, reflect changes of the optical depth in the corona. The lower kilohertz quasi-periodic oscillation (kHz QPO) in this source appears only in observations during the transition from the hard to the soft state, when the optical depth of the corona is high and changes depends strongly upon the position of the source in the colour–colour diagram. Our results are consistent with a scenario in which the lower kHz QPO reflects a global mode in the system that results from the resonance between the disc and/or the neutron star surface, and the Comptonizing corona.

Description: Supermassive stars (SMSs; ~10 5 M ) formed from metal-free gas in the early Universe attract attention as progenitors of supermassive black holes observed at high redshifts. To form SMSs by accretion, central protostars must accrete at as high rates as ~0.1–1 M yr –1 . Such protostars have very extended structures with bloated envelopes, like supergiant stars, and are called supergiant protostars (SGPSs). Under the assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium, SGPSs have density-inverted layers, where the luminosity becomes locally super-Eddington, near the surface. If the envelope matter is allowed to flow out, however, a stellar wind could be launched and hinder the accretion growth of SGPSs before reaching the supermassive regime. We examine whether radiation-driven winds are launched from SGPSs by constructing steady and spherically symmetric wind solutions. We find that the wind velocity does not reach the escape velocity in any case considered. This is because once the temperature falls below ~10 4 K, the opacity plummet drastically owing to the recombination of hydrogen and the acceleration ceases suddenly. This indicates that, in realistic non-steady cases, even if outflows are launched from the surface of SGPSs, they would fall back again. Such a ‘wind’ does not result in net mass-loss and does not prevent the growth of SGPSs. In conclusion, SGPSs will grow to SMSs and eventually collapse to massive black holes of ~10 5 M , as long as the rapid accretion is maintained.

Description: The emergence of cosmic structure is commonly considered one of the most complex phenomena in nature. However, this complexity has never been defined nor measured in a quantitative and objective way. In this work, we propose a method to measure the information content of cosmic structure and to quantify the complexity that emerges from it, based on Information Theory. The emergence of complex evolutionary patterns is studied with a statistical symbolic analysis of the datastream produced by state-of-the-art cosmological simulations of forming galaxy clusters. This powerful approach allows us to measure how many bits of information is necessary to predict the evolution of energy fields in a statistical way, and it offers a simple way to quantify when, where and how the cosmic gas behaves in complex ways. The most complex behaviours are found in the peripheral regions of galaxy clusters, where supersonic flows drive shocks and large energy fluctuations over a few tens of million years. Describing the evolution of magnetic energy requires at least twice as large amount of bits as required for the other energy fields. When radiative cooling and feedback from galaxy formation are considered, the cosmic gas is overall found to double its degree of complexity. In the future, Cosmic Information Theory can significantly increase our understanding of the emergence of cosmic structure as it represents an innovative framework to design and analyse complex simulations of the Universe in a simple, yet powerful way.

Description: Differences in expression levels are an important source of phenotypic variation within and between populations. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are key players in post-transcriptional gene regulation that are important for plant development and stress responses. We surveyed expression variation of miRNAs and mRNAs of six accessions from two rice subspecies Oryza sativa L. ssp. indica and Oryza sativa L. ssp . japonica using deep sequencing. While more than half (53.7%) of the mature miRNAs exhibit differential expression between grains and seedlings of rice, only 11.0% show expression differences between subspecies, with an additional 2.2% differentiated for the development-by-subspecies interaction. Expression variation is greater for lowly conserved miRNAs than highly conserved miRNAs, whereas the latter show stronger negative correlation with their targets in expression changes between subspecies. Using a permutation test, we identified 51 miRNA–mRNA pairs that correlate negatively or positively in expression level among cultivated rice. Genes involved in various metabolic processes and stress responses are enriched in the differentially expressed genes between rice indica and japonica subspecies. Our results indicate that stabilizing selection is the major force governing miRNA expression in cultivated rice, albeit positive selection may be responsible for much of the between-subspecies expression divergence.

Description: Geographical variation among contiguous populations is frequently attributed to ecological divergence or historical isolation followed by secondary contact. Distinguishing between these effects is key to studies of incipient speciation and could be revealed by different genomic signatures. We used RAD-seq analyses to examine morphologically divergent populations of the endemic lizard ( Gallotia galloti ) from the volcanic island of Tenerife. Previous analyses have suggested ecological and historical causes to explain the morphological diversity. Analyses of 276,483 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 〉20 Mbp of the genome revealed one genetically divergent population from Anaga, a region associated with divergent mtDNA lineages in other Tenerife endemics. This population also has a high number of private alleles, and its divergence can be explained by historical isolation. Bayesian outlier analyses identified a small proportion of SNPs as candidates for selection (0.04%) which were strongly differentiated between xeric and mesic habitat types. Individual testing for specific xeric–mesic selection using an alternative approach also supported ecological divergence in a similarly small proportion of SNPs. The study indicates the roles of both historical isolation and ecological divergence in shaping genomic diversity in G. galloti . However, north–south morphological divergence appears solely associated with the latter and likely involves a relatively small proportion of the genome.

Description: Streptococcus anginosus is a member of the normal oral flora that can become a pathogen causing pyogenic infections in humans. The genome of daptomycin-resistant strain J4206, originally isolated from a patient suffering from breakthrough bacteremia and septic shock at the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, was determined. The circular genome is 2,001,352 bp long with a GC content of 38.62% and contains multiple mobile genetic elements, including the phage-like chromosomal island SanCI that mediates a mutator phenotype, transposons, and integrative conjugative elements. Daptomycin resistance involves multiple alterations in the cell membrane and cell wall, and unique features were identified in J4206 that may contribute to resistance. A cluster of capsular polysaccharide (CPS) genes for choline metabolism and transport are present that may help neutralize cell surface charges, destabilizing daptomycin binding. Further, unique J4206 genes encoding sortases and LPXTG-target proteins that are involved in cell wall modification were present. The J4206 genome is phylogenetically closely related to the recently reported vancomycin-resistant SA1 strain; however, these genomes differ with SNPs in cardiolipin synthetase, histidine kinase yycG , teichoic acid modification genes, and other genes involved in cell surface modification. Transmission electron microscopy showed that the cell walls of both strains J4206 and SA1 were significantly thicker and more electron dense than daptomycin- and vancomycin-sensitive strain J4211. This comparative genomic study has identified unique genes as well as allelic variants in the J4206 genome that are involved in cell surface modification and thus might contribute to the acquisition of daptomycin resistance.

Description: Chromosome number changes during the evolution of angiosperms are likely to have played a major role in speciation. Their study is of utmost importance, especially now, as a probabilistic model is available to study chromosome evolution within a phylogenetic framework. In the present study, likelihood models of chromosome number evolution were fitted to the largest family of flowering plants, the Asteraceae. Specifically, a phylogenetic supertree of this family was used to reconstruct the ancestral chromosome number and infer genomic events. Our approach inferred that the ancestral chromosome number of the family is n = 9. Also, according to the model that best explained our data, the evolution of haploid chromosome numbers in Asteraceae was a very dynamic process, with genome duplications and descending dysploidy being the most frequent genomic events in the evolution of this family. This model inferred more than one hundred whole genome duplication events; however, it did not find evidence for a paleopolyploidization at the base of this family, which has previously been hypothesized on the basis of sequence data from a limited number of species. The obtained results and potential causes of these discrepancies are discussed.

Description: Elastic reverse time migration (RTM) can yield accurate subsurface information (e.g. PP and PS reflectivity) by imaging the multicomponent seismic data. However, the existing RTM methods are still insufficient to provide satisfactory results because of the finite recording aperture, limited bandwidth and imperfect illumination. Besides, the P - and S -wave separation and the polarity reversal correction are indispensable in conventional elastic RTM. Here, we propose an iterative elastic least-squares RTM (LSRTM) method, in which the imaging accuracy is improved gradually with iteration. We first use the Born approximation to formulate the elastic de-migration operator, and employ the Lagrange multiplier method to derive the adjoint equations and gradients with respect to reflectivity. Then, an efficient inversion workflow (only four forward computations needed in each iteration) is introduced to update the reflectivity. Synthetic and field data examples reveal that the proposed LSRTM method can obtain higher-quality images than the conventional elastic RTM. We also analyse the influence of model parametrizations and misfit functions in elastic LSRTM. We observe that Lamé parameters, velocity and impedance parametrizations have similar and plausible migration results when the structures of different models are correlated. For an uncorrelated subsurface model, velocity and impedance parametrizations produce fewer artefacts caused by parameter crosstalk than the Lamé coefficient parametrization. Correlation- and convolution-type misfit functions are effective when amplitude errors are involved and the source wavelet is unknown, respectively. Finally, we discuss the dependence of elastic LSRTM on migration velocities and its antinoise ability. Imaging results determine that the new elastic LSRTM method performs well as long as the low-frequency components of migration velocities are correct. The quality of images of elastic LSRTM degrades with increasing noise.

Description: Ribosomal RNAs (rRNAs) account for 〉60% of all RNAs in eukaryotic cells and are encoded in the ribosomal DNA (rDNA) arrays. The rRNAs are produced from two sets of loci: the 5S rDNA array resides exclusively on human chromosome 1, whereas the 45S rDNA array resides on the short arm of five human acrocentric chromosomes. The 45S rDNA gives origin to the nucleolus, the nuclear organelle that is the site of ribosome biogenesis. Intriguingly, 5S and 45S rDNA arrays exhibit correlated copy number variation in lymphoblastoid cells (LCLs). Here we examined the genomic architecture and repeat content of the 5S and 45S rDNA arrays in multiple human genome assemblies (including PacBio MHAP assembly) and ascertained contacts between the rDNA arrays and the rest of the genome using Hi-C datasets from two human cell lines (erythroleukemia K562 and lymphoblastoid cells). Our analyses revealed that 5S and 45S arrays each have thousands of contacts in the folded genome, with rDNA-associated regions and genes dispersed across all chromosomes. The rDNA contact map displayed conserved and disparate features between two cell lines, and pointed to specific chromosomes, genomic regions, and genes with evidence of spatial proximity to the rDNA arrays; the data also showed a lack of direct physical interaction between the 5S and 45S rDNA arrays. Finally, the analysis identified an intriguing organization in the 5S array with Alu and 5S elements adjacent to one another and organized in opposite orientation along the array. Portraits of genome folding centered on the ribosomal DNA array could help understand the emergence of concerted variation, the control of 5S and 45S expression, as well as provide insights into an organelle that contributes to the spatial localization of human chromosomes during interphase.

Description: In general, the complex electrical resistivity in the subsurface is anisotropic. Despite this, algorithms for the tomographic inversion of complex resistivity data commonly assume isotropy, mainly due to the lack of anisotropic modelling and inversion schemes, potentially leading to artefacts in the inversion results in the presence of anisotropy. The development of an effective anisotropic complex resistivity inversion algorithm which utilizes the gradient information of some cost function benefits from understanding the characteristics of the problem's sensitivities, that is, the partial derivative of the impedance forward response with respect to the complex conductivities in the different spatial directions, as well as with respect to the different ratios of complex conductivities, that is, the different anisotropy ratios. We here derive expressions for these sensitivities and, based on a 2.5-D finite-element modelling algorithm, we compute and discuss sensitivity distributions as well as measurement response curves of typical surface and cross-borehole measurement configurations for 2-D subsurface anisotropic complex resistivity distributions. Depending on the electrode layout and measurement configuration, the sensitivity with respect to the conductivity in a particular direction shows a unique pattern, while for other directions sensitivity patterns are qualitatively similar. These sensitivity characteristics translate into important equivalences between impedance responses of local anisotropic and isotropic anomalies, for both magnitude and phase. Accordingly, with collinear surface arrays only the complex conductivity in the direction of the electrode layout can be unambiguously resolved, and with cross-borehole arrays only the conductivity in the vertical direction, provided an in-hole current injection is used. Nevertheless, anisotropy ratios involving these resolvable conductivity components are likewise detectable. The distinct shape of the measurement response curves, reflecting the distinct spatial patterns of the corresponding sensitivity distributions, suggest that optimized measurement configurations can be inferred for specific exploration questions involving electrical anisotropy and given electrode layouts. The gained insight into the characteristics of the sensitivity distributions of complex resistivity measurements in case of subsurface anisotropy should guide the implementation of effective anisotropic complex resistivity inversion schemes and lead to a routine use of such schemes in any resistivity and induced polarization surveys whenever subsurface electrical anisotropy could be encountered.

Description: The streaming potential phenomenon is an electrokinetic effect that occurs in porous media. It is characterized by an electrokinetic (EK) coefficient. The aim of this paper is to simulate the EK coefficient in unsaturated conditions using the Lattice Boltzmann method in a 2-D capillary channel. The multiphase flow is simulated with the model of Shan & Chen. The Poisson–Boltzmann equation is solved by implementing the model of Chai & Shi. The streaming potential response shows a non-monotonous behaviour due to the combination of the increase of charge density and decrease of flow velocity with decreasing water saturation. Using a potential of –20 mV at the air–water interface, an enhancement of a factor 5–30 of the EK coefficient, compared to the saturated state, can be observed due to the positive charge excess at this interface which is magnified by the fluid velocity away from the rock surface. This enhancement is correlated to the fractioning of the bubbles, and to the dynamic state of these bubbles, moving or entrapped in the crevices of the channel.

Description: We present the results of two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of self-gravitating circumbinary discs around binaries whose parameters match those of the circumbinary planet-hosting systems Kepler-16, Kepler-34 and Kepler-35. Previous work has shown that non-self-gravitating discs in these systems form an eccentric precessing inner cavity due to tidal truncation by the binary, and planets which form at large radii migrate until stalling at this cavity. Whilst this scenario appears to provide a natural explanation for the observed orbital locations of the circumbinary planets, previous simulations have failed to match the observed planet orbital parameters. The aim of this work is to examine the role of self-gravity in modifying circumbinary disc structure as a function of disc mass, prior to considering the evolution of embedded circumbinary planets. In agreement with previous work, we find that for disc masses between one and five times the minimum mass solar nebula (MMSN), disc self-gravity affects modest changes in the structure and evolution of circumbinary discs. Increasing the disc mass to 10 or 20 MMSN leads to two dramatic changes in disc structure. First, the scale of the inner cavity shrinks substantially, bringing its outer edge closer to the binary. Secondly, in addition to the eccentric inner cavity, additional precessing eccentric ring-like features develop in the outer regions of the discs. If planet formation starts early in the disc lifetime, these changes will have a significant impact on the formation and evolution of planets and precursor material.

Description: In this paper, we present a multiwavelength investigation of the star-forming complex IRAS 20286+4105, located in the Cygnus X region. Near-infrared K -band data are used to revisit the cluster/stellar group identified in previous studies. Radio continuum observations at 610 and 1280 MHz show the presence of a H ii region possibly powered by a star of spectral type B0–B0.5. The cometary morphology of the ionized region is explained by invoking the bow-shock model, where the likely association with a nearby supernova remnant is also explored. A compact radio knot with a non-thermal spectral index is detected towards the centre of the cloud. Mid-infrared data from the Spitzer Legacy Survey of the Cygnus X region show the presence of six Class I young stellar objects inside the cloud. Thermal dust emission in this complex is modelled using Herschel far-infrared data to generate dust temperature and column density maps. Herschel images also show the presence of two clumps in this region, the masses of which are estimated to be ~175 and 30 M . The mass–radius relation and the surface density of the clumps mean that they do not qualify as massive star-forming sites. An overall picture of a runaway star ionizing the cloud and a triggered population of intermediate-mass, Class I sources located towards the cloud centre emerges from this multiwavelength study. Variation in the dust emissivity spectral index is shown to exist in this region and is seen to have an inverse relation with the dust temperature.

Description: The historical developments are reviewed that have led from a bottom-up responsibility initiative of concerned scientists to the emergence of a nationwide interdisciplinary Priority Program on the assessment of Climate Engineering (CE), funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). Given the perceived lack of comprehensive and comparative appraisals of different CE methods, the Priority Program was designed to encompass both solar radiation management (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) ideas, and to cover the atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic realm. First key findings obtained by the ongoing Priority Program are summarized and reveal that compared to earlier assessments, such as the 2009 Royal Society report, more detailed investigations tend to indicate less efficiency, lower effectiveness and often lower safety. Emerging research trends are discussed in the context of the recent Paris agreement to limit global warming to less than two degrees and the associated increasing reliance on negative emission technologies. Our results show then when deployed at scales large enough to have a significant impact on atmospheric CO 2 , even CDR methods such as afforestation – often perceived as ‘benign’ – can have substantial side effects and may raise severe ethical, legal and governance issues. We suppose that before being deployed at climatically relevant scales, any negative-emission or climate engineering method will require careful analysis of efficiency, effectiveness and undesired side effects.

Description: Since 1960's, India experiences a series of extreme drought and flood events during the summer months. The Humid Subtropical Climatic Zone (HSTC), which comprises the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) region of India, is highly vulnerable to the climatic extremities. This region is the home for ~40% of total population and yields ~50% of total agricultural production of India. We investigate the historical variation in dry/wet conditions and project the future changes in extreme events under two different scenarios of the CMIP5 models. Firstly, the model parameters i.e. precipitation ( P ) and temperature ( T ) are bias corrected with respect to observation data and finally 6 models are selected, which are in right phase with the observation for composite analysis. Next, we calculate the potential evapo-transpiration ( PET ) and the Standardized Potential Evapo-transpiration Index ( SPEI ) to characterize the extreme events. Both P and PET are projected to increase in the HSTC zone; however, both the wet and dry conditions demonstrate a persistent increase in future. In relative terms, P increases faster than PET along the Gangetic Plain region (wet condition) and decreases in the southern and eastern part of the region (dry condition). The mitigating effect (RCP4.5 scenario) of precipitation increase will be overridden by strengthened PET and extreme dry condition project markedly under RCP8.5 scenario. The features are consistent with the increase/ decrease in multi-model mean SPEI, consistent with the spatial pattern of P−PET . The area affected due to wet and dry events will be relatively higher under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively.

Description: We present a modification of the method for reconstructing the stellar velocity ellipsoid (SVE) in disc galaxies. Our version does not need any parametrization of the velocity dispersion profiles and uses only one assumption that the ratio z / R remains constant along the profile or along several pieces of the profile. The method was tested on two galaxies from the sample of other authors and for the first time applied to three lenticular galaxies NGC 1167, NGC 3245 and NGC 4150, as well as to one Sab galaxy NGC 338. We found that for galaxies with a high inclination ( $i 〉 55^\circ \text{--}60^\circ$ ) it is difficult or rather impossible to extract the information about SVE, while for galaxies at an intermediate inclination the procedure of extracting is successful. For NGC 1167 we managed to reconstruct SVE, provided that the value of z / R is piecewise constant. We found z / R = 0.7 for the inner parts of the disc and z / R = 0.3 for the outskirts. We also obtained a rigid constraint on the value of the radial velocity dispersion R for highly inclined galaxies, and tested the result using the asymmetric-drift equation, provided that the gas rotation curve is available.

Description: This paper presents new results from the ongoing study of the unusual Lynx–Cancer void galaxy DDO 68, which has star-forming regions of record low metallicity [12+log (O/H) ~7.14]. The results include the following. (i) A new spectrum and photometry have been obtained with the 6-m SAO RAS telescope (BTA) for the luminous blue variable (LBV = DDO68-V1). Photometric data sets were complemented with others based on the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) archive images. (ii) We performed an analysis of the DDO 68 supergiant shell (SGS) and the prominent smaller Hα arcs/shells visible in the HST image coupled with kinematic maps in Hα obtained with the Fabry–Perot interferometer (FPI) at the BTA. (iii) We compiled a list of about 50 of the most luminous stars (–9.1 mag 〈 M V 〈 –6.0 mag) identified from the HST images associated with the star-forming regions with known extremely low O/H. This is intended to pave the path for the current science to be investigated with the next generation of giant telescopes. We have confirmed earlier hints of significant variation of the LBV optical light, deriving its amplitude as V 3.7 mag for the first time. New data suggest that in 2008–2010 the LBV reached M V = –10.5 mag and probably underwent a giant eruption. We argue that the structure of star-forming complexes along the SGS (‘Northern Ring’) perimeter provides evidence for sequential induced star-formation episodes caused by the shell gas instabilities and gravitational collapse. The variability of some luminous extremely metal-poor stars in DDO 68 can currently be monitored with medium-size telescopes at sites with superb seeing.

Description: The number, distribution and properties of dwarf satellites are crucial probes of the physics of galaxy formation at low masses and the response of satellite galaxies to the tidal and gas dynamical effects of their more massive parent. To make progress, it is necessary to augment and solidify the census of dwarf satellites of galaxies outside the Local Group. Müller et al. presented 16 dwarf galaxy candidates near M83, but lacking reliable distances, it is unclear which candidates are M83 satellites. Using red-giant-branch stars from the HST /GHOSTS survey in conjunction with ground-based images from VLT/VIMOS, we confirm that one of the candidates, dw1335-29 – with a projected distance of 26 kpc from M83 and a distance modulus of $(m-M)_0 = 28.5^{+0.3}_{-0.1}$ – is a satellite of M83. We estimate an absolute magnitude M V  = –10.1 ± 0.4, an ellipticity of $0.40^{+0.14}_{-0.22}$ , a half-light radius of $656^{+121}_{-170}$  pc and [Fe/H] = $-1.3^{+0.3}_{-0.4}$ . Owing to dw1335-29's somewhat irregular shape and possible young stars, we classify this galaxy as a dwarf irregular or transition dwarf. This is curious, as with a projected distance of 26 kpc from M83, dw1335-29 is expected to lack recent star formation. Further study of M83's dwarf population will reveal if star formation in its satellites is commonplace (suggesting a lack of a hot gas envelope for M83 that would quench star formation) or rare (suggesting that dw1335-29 has a larger M83-centric distance, and is fortuitously projected to small radii).

Description: Conserved non-coding sequences (CNSs) of Eukaryotes are known to be significantly enriched in regulatory sequences. CNSs of diverse lineages follow different patterns in abundance, sequence composition, and location. Here, we report a thorough analysis of CNSs in diverse groups of Eukaryotes with respect to GC content heterogeneity. We examined 24 fungi, 19 invertebrates, and 12 non-mammalian vertebrates so as to find lineage specific features of CNSs. We found that fungi and invertebrate CNSs are predominantly GC rich as in plants we previously observed, whereas vertebrate CNSs are GC poor. This result suggests that the CNS GC content transition occurred from the ancestral GC rich state of Eukaryotes to GC poor in the vertebrate lineage due to the enrollment of GC poor transcription factor binding sites that are lineage specific. CNS GC content is closely linked with the nucleosome occupancy that determines the location and structural architecture of DNAs.

Description: Male mutation bias, when more mutations are passed on via the male germline than via the female germline, is observed across mammals. One common way to infer the magnitude of male mutation bias, α, is to compare levels of neutral sequence divergence between genomic regions that spend different amounts of time in the male and female germline. For great apes, including human, we show that estimates of divergence are reduced in putatively unconstrained regions near genes relative to unconstrained regions far from genes. Divergence increases with increasing distance from genes on both the X chromosome and autosomes, but increases faster on the X chromosome than autosomes. As a result, ratios of X/A divergence increase with increasing distance from genes and corresponding estimates of male mutation bias are significantly higher in intergenic regions near genes versus far from genes. Future studies in other species will need to carefully consider the effect that genomic location will have on estimates of male mutation bias.

Description: Great genetic variability among teleost immunomes, with gene losses and expansions of central adaptive and innate components, has been discovered through genome sequencing over the last few years. Here, we demonstrate that the innate Myxovirus resistance gene ( Mx ) is lost from the ancestor of Gadiformes and the closely related Stylephorus chordatus , thus predating the loss of Major Histocompatibility Complex class II ( MHCII ) in Gadiformes. Although the functional implication of Mx loss is still unknown, we demonstrate that this loss is one of several ancient events appearing in successive order throughout the evolution of teleost immunity. In particular, we find that the loss of Toll-like receptor 5 predates the loss of Mx involving the entire Paracanthopterygii lineage. Using a time-calibrated phylogeny, we show that loss of MHCII and Mx overlap with major paleoclimatic and geological events indicating that these genetic changes were adaptive responses to the changing environment at the time.

Description: Males and females often display extensive phenotypic differences, and many of these sexual dimorphisms are thought to result from differences between males and females in expression of genes present in both sexes. Sex-biased genes have been shown to exhibit accelerated rates of evolution in a wide array of species, however the cause of this remains enigmatic. In this study, we investigate the extent and evolutionary dynamics of sex-biased gene expression in zebrafish. Our results indicate that both male-biased genes and female-biased genes exhibit accelerated evolution at the protein level. In order to differentiate between adaptive and nonadaptive causes, we tested for codon usage bias and signatures of different selective regimes in our sequence data. Our results show that both male- and female-biased genes show signatures consistent with adaptive evolution. In order to test the generality of our findings across fish, we also analyzed publicly available data on sticklebacks, and found results consistent with our findings in zebrafish.

Description: Host–pathogen interactions may result in either directional selection or in pressure for the maintenance of polymorphism at the molecular level. Hence signatures of both positive and balancing selection are expected in immune genes. Because both overall selective pressure and specific targets may differ between species, large-scale population genomic studies are useful in detecting functionally important immune genes and comparing selective landscapes between taxa. Such studies are of particular interest in amphibians, a group threatened worldwide by emerging infectious diseases. Here, we present an analysis of polymorphism and divergence of 634 immune genes in two lineages of Lissotriton newts: L. montandoni and L. vulgaris graecus . Variation in newt immune genes has been shaped predominantly by widespread purifying selection and strong evolutionary constraint, implying long-term importance of these genes for functioning of the immune system. The two evolutionary lineages differ in the overall strength of purifying selection which can partially be explained by demographic history but may also signal differences in long-term pathogen pressure. The prevalent constraint notwithstanding, 23 putative targets of positive selection and 11 putative targets of balancing selection were identified. The latter were detected by composite tests involving the demographic model and further validated in independent population samples. Putative targets of balancing selection encode proteins which may interact closely with pathogens but include also regulators of immune response. The identified candidates will be useful for testing whether genes affected by balancing selection are more prone to interspecific introgression than other genes in the genome.

Description: Genomic variation in Indian populations is of great interest due to the diversity of ancestral components, social stratification, endogamy and complex admixture patterns. With an expanding population of 1.2 billion, India is also a treasure trove to catalogue innocuous as well as clinically relevant rare mutations. Recent studies have revealed four dominant ancestries in populations from mainland India: Ancestral North-Indian (ANI), Ancestral South-Indian (ASI), Ancestral Tibeto–Burman (ATB) and Ancestral Austro-Asiatic (AAA). The 1000 Genomes Project (KGP) Phase-3 data include about 500 genomes from five linguistically defined Indian-Subcontinent (IS) populations (Punjabi, Gujrati, Bengali, Telugu and Tamil) some of whom are recent migrants to USA or UK. Comparative analyses show that despite the distinct geographic origins of the KGP-IS populations, the ANI component is predominantly represented in this dataset. Previous studies demonstrated population substructure in the HapMap Gujrati population, and we found evidence for additional substructure in the Punjabi and Telugu populations. These substructured populations have characteristic/significant differences in heterozygosity and inbreeding coefficients. Moreover, we demonstrate that the substructure is better explained by factors like differences in proportion of ancestral components, and endogamy driven social structure rather than invoking a novel ancestral component to explain it. Therefore, using language and/or geography as a proxy for an ethnic unit is inadequate for many of the IS populations. This highlights the necessity for more nuanced sampling strategies or corrective statistical approaches, particularly for biomedical and population genetics research in India.

Description: Within the last 15 years, two related coronaviruses (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome [SARS]-CoV and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome [MERS]-CoV) expanded their host range to include humans, with increased virulence in their new host. Coronaviruses were recently found to have little intrinsic disorder compared with many other virus families. Because intrinsically disordered regions have been proposed to be important for rewiring interactions between virus and host, we investigated the conservation of intrinsic disorder and secondary structure in coronaviruses in an evolutionary context. We found that regions of intrinsic disorder are rarely conserved among different coronavirus protein families, with the primary exception of the nucleocapsid. Also, secondary structure predictions are only conserved across 50–80% of sites for most protein families, with the implication that 20–50% of sites do not have conserved secondary structure prediction. Furthermore, nonconserved structure sites are significantly less constrained in sequence divergence than either sites conserved in the secondary structure or sites conserved in loop. Avoiding regions symptomatic of conformational flexibility such as disordered sites and sites with nonconserved secondary structure to identify potential broad-specificity antiviral targets, only one sequence motif (five residues or longer) remains from the 〉10,000 starting sites across all coronaviruses in this study. The identified sequence motif is found within the nonstructural protein (NSP) 12 and constitutes an antiviral target potentially effective against the present day and future coronaviruses. On shorter evolutionary timescales, the SARS and MERS clades have more sequence motifs fulfilling the criteria applied. Interestingly, many motifs map to NSP12 making this a prime target for coronavirus antivirals.

Description: Species of the Fusarium fujikuroi species complex (FFC) cause a wide spectrum of often devastating diseases on diverse agricultural crops, including coffee, fig, mango, maize, rice, and sugarcane. Although species within the FFC are difficult to distinguish by morphology, and their genes often share 90% sequence similarity, they can differ in host plant specificity and life style. FFC species can also produce structurally diverse secondary metabolites (SMs), including the mycotoxins fumonisins, fusarins, fusaric acid, and beauvericin, and the phytohormones gibberellins, auxins, and cytokinins. The spectrum of SMs produced can differ among closely related species, suggesting that SMs might be determinants of host specificity. To date, genomes of only a limited number of FFC species have been sequenced. Here, we provide draft genome sequences of three more members of the FFC: a single isolate of F. mangiferae , the cause of mango malformation, and two isolates of F. proliferatum , one a pathogen of maize and the other an orchid endophyte. We compared these genomes to publicly available genome sequences of three other FFC species. The comparisons revealed species-specific and isolate-specific differences in the composition and expression ( in vitro and in planta ) of genes involved in SM production including those for phytohormome biosynthesis. Such differences have the potential to impact host specificity and, as in the case of F. proliferatum , the pathogenic versus endophytic life style.

Description: Seismic noise measurements (ambient vibrations) have been increasingly used in rock slope stability assessment for both investigation and monitoring purposes. Recent studies made on gravitational hazard revealed significant spectral amplification at given frequencies and polarization of the wave-field in the direction of maximum rock slope displacement. Different properties (resonance frequencies, polarization and spectral ratio amplitudes) can be derived from the spectral analysis of the seismic noise to characterize unstable rock masses. The objective here is to identify the dynamic parameters that could be used to gain information on prone-to-fall rock columns’ geometry. To do so, the dynamic response of prone-to-fall columns to seismic noise has been studied on two different sites exhibiting cliff-like geometry. Dynamic parameters (main resonance frequency and spectral ratio amplitudes) that could characterize the column decoupling were extracted from seismic noise and their variations were studied taking into account the external environmental parameter fluctuations. Based on this analysis, a two-dimensional numerical model has been set up to assess the influence of the rear vertical fractures identified on both sites on the rock column motion response. Although a simple relation was found between spectral ratio amplitudes and the rock column slenderness, it turned out that the resonance frequency is more stable than the spectral ratio amplitudes to characterize this column decoupling, provided that the elastic properties of the column can be estimated. The study also revealed the effect of additional remote fractures on the dynamic parameters, which in turn could be used for detecting the presence of such discontinuities.

Description: In this study, we present a new synthesis of GPS velocities for tectonic deformation within the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas, a combined data set of ~1854 GPS-derived horizontal velocity vectors. Assuming that crustal deformation is localized along major faults, a block modelling approach is employed to interpret the GPS velocity field. We construct a 30-element block model to describe present-day deformation in western China, with half of them located within the Tibetan Plateau, and the remainder located in its surrounding areas. We model the GPS velocities simultaneously for the effects of block rotations and elastic strain induced by the bounding faults. Our model yields a good fit to the GPS data with a mean residual of 1.08 mm a –1 compared to the mean uncertainty of 1.36 mm a –1 for each velocity component, indicating a good agreement between the predicted and observed velocities. The major strike-slip faults such as the Altyn Tagh, Xianshuihe, Kunlun and Haiyuan faults have relatively uniform slip rates in a range of 5–12 mm a –1 along most of their segments, and the estimated fault slip rates agree well with previous geologic and geodetic results. Blocks having significant residuals are located at the southern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau, suggesting complex tectonic settings and further refinement of accurate definition of block geometry in these regions.

Description: Surface-related multiples have been utilized in the reverse-time migration (RTM) procedures, and additional illumination for subsurface can be provided. Meanwhile, many cross-talks are generated from undesired interactions between forward- and backward-propagated seismic waves. In this paper, subsequent to analysing and categorizing these cross-talks, we propose RTM of first-order multiples to avoid most undesired interactions in RTM of all-order multiples, where only primaries are forward-propagated and crosscorrelated with the backward-propagated first-order multiples. With primaries and multiples separated during regular seismic data processing as the input data, first-order multiples can be obtained by a two-step scheme: (1) the dual-prediction of higher-order multiples; and (2) the adaptive subtraction of predicted higher-order multiples from all-order multiples within local offset-time windows. In numerical experiments, two synthetic and a marine field data sets are used, where different cross-talks generated by RTM of all-order multiples can be identified and the proposed RTM of first-order multiples can provide a very interpretable image with a few cross-talks.

Description: We present high-resolution radio continuum observations with the Karl G. Jansky very large array at 6, 8.5, 11.5 and 15 GHz of the double-peaked emission-line galaxy 2MASXJ12032061+1319316. The radio emission has a prominent S-shaped morphology with highly symmetric radio jets that extend over a distance of ~1.5 arcsec (1.74 kpc) on either side of the core of size ~0.1 arcsec (116 pc). The radio jets have a helical structure resembling the precessing jets in the galaxy NGC 326 which has confirmed dual active galactic nuclei (AGN). The nuclear bulge velocity dispersion gives an upper limit of (1.56 ± 0.26) x 10 8 M for the total mass of nuclear black hole(s). We present a simple model of precessing jets in 2MASXJ1203 and find that the precession time-scale is around 10 5 yr: this matches the source lifetime estimate via spectral ageing. We find that the expected supermassive black hole (SMBH) separation corresponding to this time-scale is 0.02 pc. We used the double-peaked emission lines in 2MASXJ1203 to determine an orbital speed for a dual AGN system and the associated jet precession time-scale, which turns out to be more than the Hubble time, making it unfeasible. We conclude that the S-shaped radio jets are due to jet precession caused either by a binary/dual SMBH system, a single SMBH with a tilted accretion disc or a dual AGN system where a close pass of the secondary SMBH in the past has given rise to jet precession.

Description: In any flux-density limited sample of blazars, the distribution of the time-scale modulation factor t '/ t , which quantifies the change in observed time-scales compared to the rest-frame ones due to redshift and relativistic compression follows an exponential distribution with a mean depending on the flux limit of the sample. In this work, we produce the mathematical formalism that allows us to use this information in order to uncover the underlining rest-frame probability density function of measurable time-scales of blazar jets. We extensively test our proposed methodology using a simulated Flat Spectrum Radio Quasar population with a 1.5 Jy flux-density limit in the simple case (where all blazars share the same intrinsic time-scale), in order to identify limits of applicability and potential biases due to observational systematics and sample selection. We find that for monitoring with time intervals between observations longer than ~30 per cent of the intrinsic time-scale under investigation the method loses its ability to produce robust results. For time intervals of ~3 per cent of the intrinsic time-scale, the error of the method is as low as 1 per cent in recovering the intrinsic rest-frame time-scale. We applied our method to rotations of the optical polarization angle of blazars observed by RoboPol. We found that the intrinsic time-scales of the longest duration rotation event in each blazar follows a narrow distribution, well described by a normal distribution with mean 87 d and standard deviation 5 d. We discuss possible interpretations of this result.

Description: About one-third of X-ray-luminous clusters show smooth, Mpc-scale radio emission, known as giant radio haloes. One promising model for radio haloes is Fermi-II acceleration of seed relativistic electrons by compressible turbulence. The origin of these seed electrons has never been fully explored. Here, we integrate the Fokker–Planck equation of the cosmic ray (CR) electron and proton distributions when post-processing cosmological simulations of cluster formation and confront them with radio surface brightness and spectral data of Coma. For standard assumptions, structure formation shocks lead to a seed electron population that produces too centrally concentrated radio emission. Matching observations requires modifying properties of the CR population (rapid streaming; enhanced CR electron acceleration at shocks) or turbulence (increasing turbulent-to-thermal energy density with radius), but at the expense of fine-tuning. In a parameter study, we find that radio properties are exponentially sensitive to the amplitude of turbulence, which is inconsistent with small scatter in scaling relations. This sensitivity is removed if we relate the acceleration time to the turbulent dissipation time. In this case, turbulence above a threshold value provides a fixed amount of amplification; observations could thus potentially constrain the unknown CR seed population. To obtain sufficient acceleration, the turbulent magneto-hydrodynamics cascade has to terminate by transit time damping on CRs, i.e. thermal particles must be scattered by plasma instabilities. Understanding the small scatter in radio halo scaling relations may provide a rich source of insight on plasma processes in clusters.

Description: We measure a combination of gravitational lensing, galaxy clustering and redshift-space distortions (RSDs) called E G . The quantity E G probes both parts of metric potential and is insensitive to galaxy bias and 8 . These properties make it an attractive statistic to test lambda cold dark matter, general relativity and its alternate theories. We have combined CMASS Data Release 11 with CFHTLenS and recent measurements of β from RSD analysis, and find E G ( z  = 0.57) = 0.42 ± 0.056, a 13 per cent measurement in agreement with the prediction of general relativity E G ( z  = 0.57) = 0.396 ± 0.011 using the Planck 2015 cosmological parameters. We have corrected our measurement for various observational and theoretical systematics. Our measurement is consistent with the first measurement of E G using cosmic microwave background lensing in place of galaxy lensing at small scales, but shows 2.8 tension when compared with their final results including large scales. This analysis with future surveys will provide improved statistical error and better control over systematics to test general relativity and its alternate theories.

Description: Using a Bayesian framework, we quantify what current observations imply about the history of the epoch of reionization (EoR). We use a popular, three-parameter EoR model, flexible enough to accommodate a wide range of physically plausible reionization histories. We study the impact of various EoR observations: (i) the optical depth to the CMB measured by Planck 2016; (ii) the dark fraction in the Lyman α and β forests; (iii) the redshift evolution of galactic Lyα emission (so-called ‘Lyα fraction’); (iv) the clustering of Lyα emitters; (v) the IGM damping wing imprint in the spectrum of QSO ULASJ1120+0641; (vi) and the patchy kinetic Sunyaev–Zel'dovich signal. Combined, (i) and (ii) already place interesting constraints on the reionization history, with the epochs corresponding to an average neutral fraction of (75, 50, 25) per cent, constrained at 1 to $z= (9.21^{+1.22 }_{ -1.15}, 8.14^{+1.08 }_{ -1.00}, 7.26^{+1.13 }_{ -0.96})$ . Folding-in more model-dependent EoR observations [(iii)–(vi)], strengthens these constraints by tens of per cent, at the cost of a decrease in the likelihood of the best-fitting model, driven mostly by (iii). The tightest constraints come from (v). Unfortunately, no current observational set is sufficient to break degeneracies and constrain the astrophysical EoR parameters. However, model-dependent priors on the EoR parameters themselves can be used to set tight limits by excluding regions of parameter space with strong degeneracies. Motivated by recent observations of z ~ 7 faint, lensed galaxies, we show how a conservative upper limit on the virial temperature of haloes which host reionizing galaxies can constrain the escape fraction of ionizing photons to $f_{\rm esc} = 0.14^{+0.26 }_{ -0.09}$ .

Description: We present new time-resolved photometry of 74 cataclysmic variables (CVs), 47 of which are eclipsing. Thirteen of these eclipsing systems are newly discovered. For all 47 eclipsing systems, we show high cadence (1–20 s) light curves obtained with the high-speed cameras ULTRACAM and ULTRASPEC. We provide new or refined ephemerides, and supply mid-eclipse times for all observed eclipses. We assess the potential for light-curve modelling of all 47 eclipsing systems to determine their system parameters, finding 20 systems that appear to be suitable for future study. Systems of particular interest include V713 Cep, in which we observed a temporary switching-off of accretion; and ASASSN-14mv and CSS111019:233313–155744, which both have orbital periods well below the CV period minimum. The short orbital periods and light-curve shapes suggest that they may be double degenerate (AM CVn) systems or CVs with evolved donor stars.

Description: We have used the 610-MHz receivers of the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) to detect associated H i 21-cm absorption from the z  = 1.2230 blazar TXS 1954+513. The GMRT H i 21-cm absorption is likely to arise against either the milliarcsecond-scale core or the one-sided milliarcsecond-scale radio jet, and is blueshifted by 328 km s –1 from the blazar redshift. This is consistent with a scenario in which the H i cloud giving rise to the absorption is being driven outwards by the radio jet. The integrated H i 21-cm optical depth is (0.716 ± 0.037) km s –1 , implying a high H i column density, $N_{\rm H\small {I}} = (1.305 \pm 0.067) \times ({ T_{\rm s}/100\,{\rm K}}) \times 10^{20}$  cm –2 , for an assumed H i spin temperature of 100 K. We use Nickel Telescope photometry of TXS 1954+513 to infer a high rest-frame 1216 Å luminosity of (4.1 ± 1.2)  x  10 23 W Hz –1 . The z  = 1.2230 absorber towards TXS 1954+513 is only the fifth case of a detection of associated H i 21-cm absorption at z  〉 1, and is also the first case of such a detection towards an active galactic nucleus (AGN) with a rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) luminosity 〉〉10 23 W Hz –1 , demonstrating that neutral hydrogen can survive in AGN environments in the presence of high UV luminosities.

Description: In the 2000s, the rapid growth of CO 2 emitted in the production of exports from developing to developed countries, in which China accounted for the dominant share, led to concerns that climate polices had been undermined by international trade. Arguments on ‘carbon leakage’ and ‘competitiveness’ – which led to the refusal of the United States to ratify the Kyoto Protocol – put pressure on developing countries, especially China, to limit their emissions with Border Carbon Adjustments used as one threat. After strong growth in the early 2000s, emissions exported from developing to developed countries plateaued and could have even decreased since 2007. These changes were mainly due to China: In 2002–2007, China’s exported emissions grew by 827 MtCO 2 , amounting to almost all the 892 MtCO 2 total increase in emissions exported from developing to developed countries, while in 2007–2012, emissions exported from China decreased by 229 MtCO 2 , contributing to the total decrease of 172 MtCO 2 exported from developing to developed countries. We apply Structural Decomposition Analysis to find that, in addition to the diminishing effects of the global financial crisis, the slowdown and eventual plateau was largely explained by several potentially permanent changes in China: Decline in export volume growth, improvements in CO 2 intensity, and changes in production structure and the mix of exported products. We argue that growth in China’s exported emissions will not return to the high levels during the 2000s, therefore the arguments for climate polices focused on embodied emissions such as Border Carbon Adjustments are now weakened.

Description: We present new detail on how future SLR will modify nonlinear wave transformation processes, shoreline wave energy and wave driven flooding on atoll islands. Frequent and destructive wave inundation is a primary climate-change hazard that may render atoll islands uninhabitable in the near future. However, limited research has examined the physical vulnerability of atoll islands to future SLR and sparse information is available to implement process based coastal management on coral reef environments. We utilize a field-verified numerical model capable of resolving all nonlinear wave transformation processes to simulate how future SLR will modify wave dissipation and overtopping on Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, accounting for static and accretionary reef adjustment morphologies. Results show that future SLR coupled with a static reef morphology will not only increase shoreline wave energy and overtopping but will fundamental alter the spectral composition of shoreline energy by decreasing the contemporary influence of low frequency infragravity waves. ‘ Business-as-usual ' emissions (RCP 8.5) will result in annual wave overtopping on Funafuti Atoll by 2030, with overtopping at high tide under mean wave conditions occurring from 2090. Comparatively, vertical reef accretion in response to SLR will prevent any significant increase in shoreline wave energy and mitigate wave driven flooding volume by 72%. Our results provide the first quantitative assessment of how effective future reef accretion can be at mitigating SLR associated flooding on atoll islands and endorse active reef conservation and restoration for future coastal protection.

Description: ABSTRACT Risk perception research has played an influential role in supporting risk management and risk communication policy. Risk perception studies are popular across a range of disciplines in the social and natural sciences for a wide range of hazard types. Their results have helped to articulate the complex individual, relational, structural, and environmental factors influencing people's behavior. Connections between individual and collective behaviors and norms impacting global climate change, and consequently, local disaster risk, however, are infrequently included in disaster risk management. This paper presents results from two diverse and complementary European risk perception studies examining both natural and anthropogenic hazards. Research gaps and recommendations for developing more comprehensive risk management strategies are presented.

Description: Multi-sectoral partnerships (MSPs) form an increasingly popular and important part of the global climate and disaster risk governance landscape, but literature offers little critical investigation of this phenomenon. In particular it remains unclear how MSPs can support the transition from agenda-setting to implementation in response to multiple current and future pressures threatening the resilience of cities. Through the lens of the London Climate Change Partnership (LCCP) and drawing from other MSP examples, this paper investigates the scope for MSPs to enhance climate adaptation in an urban context. Our paper has two main aims: to expand understanding of the role of MSPs in the adaptation decision process in the context of the wider governance literature, and to shed some light on the complexities of transitioning through that process. To clarify the role of a MSP we propose a distinction between ‘first generation’ and ‘second generation’ MSPs, illustrating the progression from agenda-setting to implementation: ‘first generation’ MSPs are focused on agenda-setting and knowledge sharing in order to support decision-makers, while ‘second generation’ partnerships are aimed at implementing solutions. We consider this distinction from the perspective of the individual members and their perceptions, motivations and expectations. We find that the dynamic nature of urban adaptation with a shifting focus from initial agenda setting towards the implementation of actions presents challenges for existing MSPs, particularly such long-established ones like the LCCP. Our investigation shows that ‘first generation’ MSPs can play important roles in agenda-setting, but finds little evidence of ‘second generation’ MSPs achieving implementation.

Description: Improving society's ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding requires integrated, anticipatory flood risk management (FRM) . However, most countries still focus their efforts on responding to flooding events if and when they occur rather than addressing their current and future vulnerability to flooding. Flood insurance is one mechanism that could a more ex-ante approach to risk by supporting risk reduction activities. This paper uses an adapted version of Easton's System Theory to investigate the role of insurance for FRM in Germany and England. We introduce an anticipatory FRM framework, which allows to consider flood insurance as part of a broader policy field. We analyse if and how flood insurance can catalyse a change towards a more anticipatory approach to FRM. In particular we consider insurance's role in influencing five key components of an anticipatory FRM: risk knowledge, prevention through better planning, property-level protection measures, structural protection and preparedness (for response). We find that in both countries FRM is still a reactive, event-driven process, while anticipatory FRM remains underdeveloped. However, collaboration between insurers and FRM decision-makers has already been successful, for example in improving risk knowledge and awareness, while in other areas insurance acts as a disincentive for more risk reduction action. In both countries there is evidence that insurance can play a significant role in encouraging anticipatory FRM, but this remains underutilized. Effective collaboration between insurers and government, should not be seen as a cost, but as an investment to secure future insurability through flood resilience.

Description: Just as carbon fueled the Industrial Revolution, nitrogen has fueled an Agricultural Revolution. The use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers and the cultivation of nitrogen-fixing crops both expanded exponentially during the last century, with most of the increase occurring after 1960. As a result, the current flux of reactive, or fixed, nitrogen compounds to the biosphere due to human activities is roughly equivalent to the total flux of fixed nitrogen from all natural sources, both on land masses and in the world's oceans. Natural fluxes of fixed nitrogen are subject to very large uncertainties, but anthropogenic production of reactive nitrogen has increased almost five-fold in the last half-century, and this rapid increase in anthropogenic fixed nitrogen has removed any uncertainty on the relative importance of anthropogenic fluxes to the natural budget. The increased use of nitrogen has been critical for increased crop yields and protein production needed to keep pace with the growing world population. However, similar to carbon, the release of fixed nitrogen into the natural environment is linked to adverse consequences at local, regional, and global scales. Anthropogenic contributions of fixed nitrogen continue to grow relative to the natural budget, with uncertain consequences.

Description: Land surface albedo is a key parameter controlling the local energy budget, and altering the albedo of built surfaces has been proposed as a tool to mitigate high near-surface temperatures in the Urban Heat Island. However, most research on albedo in urban landscapes has used coarse-resolution data, and few studies have attempted to relate albedo to other urban land cover characteristics. This study provides an empirical description of urban summertime albedo using 30 m remote sensing measurements in the metropolitan area around Boston, Massachusetts, relating albedo to metrics of impervious cover fraction, tree canopy coverage, population density, and land surface temperature (LST). At 30 m spatial resolution, median albedo over the study area (excluding open water) was 0.152 (0.112–0.187). Trends of lower albedo with increasing urbanization metrics and temperature emerged only after aggregating data to 500 m or the boundaries of individual towns, at which scale a −0.01 change in albedo was associated with a 29 (25–35)% decrease in canopy cover, a 27 (24–30)% increase in impervious cover, and an increase in population from 11–386 km −2 . The most intensively urbanized towns in the region showed albedo up to 0.035 lower than the least urbanized towns, and mean mid-morning LST 12.6 °C higher. Trends in albedo derived from 500 m MODIS measurements were comparable, but indicated a strong contribution of open water at this coarser resolution. These results reveal linkages between albedo and urban land cover character, and offer empirical context for climate resilient planning and future landscape functional changes with urbanization.

Description: In this study, we demonstrate skillful spring forecasts of detrended September Arctic sea ice extent using passive microwave observations of sea ice concentration (SIC) and melt onset (MO). We compare these to forecasts produced using data from a sophisticated melt pond model, and find similar to higher skill values, where the forecast skill is calculated relative to linear trend persistence. The MO forecasts shows the highest skill in March–May, while the SIC forecasts produce the highest skill in June–August, especially when the forecasts are evaluated over recent years (since 2008). The high MO forecast skill in early spring appears to be driven primarily by the presence and timing of open water anomalies, while the high SIC forecast skill appears to be driven by both open water and surface melt processes. Spatial maps of detrended anomalies highlight the drivers of the different forecasts, and enable us to understand regions of predictive importance. Correctly capturing sea ice state anomalies, along with changes in open water coverage appear to be key processes in skillfully forecasting summer Arctic sea ice.

Description: Society has set ambitious targets for stabilizing mean global temperature. To attain these targets, it will have to reduce CO 2 emissions to near zero by mid-century and subsequently remove CO 2 from the atmosphere during the latter half of the century. There is a recognized need to develop technologies for CO 2 removal; however, attempts to develop direct air capture systems have faced both energetic and financial constraints. Recently, BioEnergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) has emerged as a leading candidate for removing CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, BECCS can have negative consequences on land, nutrient, and water use as well as biodiversity and food production. Here, we describe an alternative approach based on the large-scale industrial production of marine microalgae. When cultivated with proper attention to power, carbon, and nutrient sources, microalgae can be processed to produce a variety of biopetroleum products, including carbon neutral biofuels for the transportation sector and long-lived, potentially carbon-negative construction materials for the built environment. In addition to these direct roles in mitigating and potentially reversing the effects of fossil CO 2 emissions, microalgae can also play an important indirect role. Because microalgae exhibit much higher primary production rates than terrestrial plants, they require much less land area to produce an equivalent amount of bioenergy and/or food. On a global scale, the avoided emissions resulting from displacement of conventional agriculture may exceed the benefits of microalgae biofuels in achieving climate stabilization goals.

Description: Biome-specific soil respiration (Rs) has important yet different roles in both the carbon cycle and climate change from regional to global scales. To date, no comparable studies related to global biome-specific Rs have been conducted applying comprehensive global Rs databases. The goal of this study was to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models capable of spatially estimating global Rs and to evaluate the effects of interannual climate variations on 10 major biomes. We used 1,976 annual Rs field records extracted from global Rs literature to train and test the ANN models. We determined that the best ANN model for predicting biome-specific global annual Rs was the one that applied mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP) and biome type as inputs ( r 2  = 0.60). The ANN models reported an average global Rs of 93.3 ± 6.1 Pg C year −1 from 1960 to 2012 and an increasing trend in average global annual Rs of 0.04 Pg C year −1 . Estimated annual Rs increased with increases in MAT and MAP in cropland, boreal forest, grassland, shrubland and wetland biomes. Additionally, estimated annual Rs decreased with increases in MAT and increased with increases in MAP in desert and tundra biomes, and only significantly decreased with increases in MAT ( r 2  = 0.87) in the savannah biome. The developed biome-specific global Rs database for global land and soil carbon models will aid in understanding the mechanisms underlying variations in soil carbon dynamics and in quantifying uncertainty in the global soil carbon cycle.

Description: ABSTRACT Monitoring is science keeping our thumb on the pulse of the environment to detect any changes of concern for societies. Basic science is the question-driven search for fundamental processes and mechanisms. Given the firm root of monitoring in human interests and needs, basic sciences have often been regarded as scientifically “purer” – particularly within university-based research communities. We argue that the dichotomy between “research” and “monitoring” is an artificial one, and that this artificial split clouds the definition of scientific goals and leads to suboptimal use of resources. We claim that the synergy between the two scientific approaches is well distilled by science conducted under extreme logistic constraints, when scientists are forced to take full advantage of both the data and the infrastructure available. In evidence of this view, we present our experiences from two decades of uniting research and monitoring at the remote research facility Zackenberg in High Arctic Greenland. For this site, we show how the combination of insights from monitoring with the mechanistic understanding obtained from basic research has yielded the most complete understanding of the system – to the benefit of all, and as an example to follow. We therefore urge scientists from across the continuum from monitoring to research to come together, to disregard old division lines, and to work together to expose a comprehensive picture of ecosystem change and its consequences.

Description: Although recent decades have been the warmest since 1850, and global mean temperatures during 2015 and 2016 beat all instrumental records, the rate of increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) significantly decreased at the beginning of the 21st Century. In this context, we examine the roles of ice melting and associated increase in sea-water mass, both of which significantly increased at the same time as GSAT decreased. Specifically, we show that (1) the slowdown of the rate of increase in GSAT between the specific periods 1992–2001 and 2002–2011 exists in all three climate records analyzed and is statistically significant at the 5% level amounting between 0.029 and 0. 036 °C/yr and leaving an energy of 14.8 to 18.4 10 19  J/yr available; (2) the increase of the atmosphere-related ice melt between these two periods amounts to 316 Gt/yr which requires 10.5 10 19  J/yr, i.e. between 57% and 71 % of the energy left by the slowdown; and (3) the energy budget shows therefore that the heat required to melt this additional 316 Gt/yr of ice is of the same order as the energy needed to warm the atmosphere during the decade 2002–2011 as much as during the previous one, suggesting a redistribution of heat within the atmosphere-cryosphere system.

Description: Climate change is a major driver of vegetation activity but its complex ecological relationships impede research efforts. In this study, the spatial distribution and dynamic characteristics of climate change effects on vegetation activity in China from the 1980s to the 2010s and from 2021 to 2050 were investigated using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The GWR model was based on combined datasets of satellite vegetation index, climate observation and projection, and future vegetation productivity simulation. Our results revealed that the significantly positive precipitation-vegetation relationship was and will be mostly distributed in North China. However, the regions with temperature-dominated distribution of vegetation activity were and will be mainly located in South China. Due to the varying climate features and vegetation cover, the spatial correlation between vegetation activity and climate change may be altered. There will be different dominant climatic factors for vegetation activity distribution in some regions such as Northwest China, and even opposite correlations in Northeast China. Additionally, the response of vegetation activity to precipitation will move southward in the next three decades. In contrast, although the high warming rate will restrain the vegetation activity, precipitation variability could modify hydrothermal conditions for vegetation activity. This observation is exemplified in the projected future enhancement of vegetation activity in the Tibetan Plateau and weakened vegetation activity in East and Middle China. Furthermore, the vegetation in most parts of North China may adapt to an arid environment, whereas in many southern areas, vegetation will be repressed by water shortage in the future.

Description: We examine some unexpected epistemological conflicts that arise at the interfaces between ecological science, the ecosystem services framework, policy and industry. We use an example from our own research to motivate and illustrate our main arguments, while also reviewing standard approaches to ecological science using the ecosystem services framework. While we agree that the ecosystem services framework has benefits in its industrial applications because it may force economic decision makers to consider a broader range of costs and benefits than they would do otherwise, we find that many alignments of ecology with the ecosystem services framework are asking questions that are irrelevant to real-world applications, and generating data that does not serve real-world applications. We attempt to clarify why these problems arise and how to avoid them. We urge fellow ecologists to reflect on the kind of research that can lead to both scientific advances and applied relevance to society. In our view, traditional empirical approaches at landscape scales or with place-based emphases are necessary to provide applied knowledge for problem solving, which is needed once decision makers identify risks to ecosystem services. We conclude that the ecosystem services framework is a good policy tool when applied to decision-making contexts, but not a good theory either of social valuation or ecological interactions, and should not be treated as one.

Description: Because of its low level of energy consumption and the small scale of its industrial development, the Tibet Autonomous Region has historically been excluded from China's reported energy statistics, including those regarding CO 2 emissions. In this paper, we estimate Tibet's energy consumption using limited online documents, and we calculate the 2014 energy-related and process-related CO 2 emissions of Tibet and its seven prefecture-level administrative divisions for the first time. Our results show that 5.52 million tons of CO 2 were emitted in Tibet in 2014; 33% of these emissions are associated with cement production. Tibet's emissions per capita amounted to 1.74 tons in 2014, which is substantially lower than the national average, although Tibet's emission intensity is relatively high at 0.60 tons per thousand yuan in 2014. Among Tibet's seven prefecture-level administrative divisions, Lhasa City and Shannan Region are the two largest CO 2 contributors and have the highest per capita emissions and emission intensities. The Nagqu and Nyingchi regions emit little CO 2 due to their farming/pasturing-dominated economies. This quantitative measure of Tibet's regional CO 2 emissions provides solid data support for Tibet's actions on climate change and emission reductions.

Description: Evapotranspiration is a key variable in hydrology, playing an important role in water and energy balance of the land surface. There has been speculation on the direction of trend in potential and actual evapotranspiration (PET and AET) resulting from rising global temperatures, in both observational and derived records representing the historical climate. In this study, PET and AET trends of 8 different global model datasets where analyzed over two time periods: from 2003 to 2012 (short term) and from 1980 to 2012 (multi-decadal), to identify regions where the trends coincide or differ and to study the reasons behind these changes. The short-term analysis showed considerable uncertainty exists on the detection and direction of significant trends on both PET and AET. There was little agreement amongst the datasets about the direction of the global trends. The multi-decadal study showed much more consistent trends throughout the datasets, particularly in relation to positive significant PET trends. During this period, the global PET mean increased 0.091mm/month/year, while the global AET rose at 0.045 mm/month/year. Much of the opposite PET/AET trends can be attributed to changes in the precipitation. Most of the regions which present these trends are water-limited and present strong correlations between AET and precipitation trends. Some energy-limited regions showed an increasing gap between PET and AET, suggesting the influence of additional variables controlling AET.

Description: As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, i.e. consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socio-economic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, e.g. via raised risk awareness, preparedness and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur. Index Terms 1821 Floods (4303); 4327 Resilience; 4328 Risk; 4330 Vulnerability; 4339 Disaster mitigation

Description: Global multi-model wave climate projections are obtained at 1.0°x1.0° scale from 30 CMIP5 Global Climate Model (GCM) realizations. A semi-supervised weather-typing approach based on a characterization of the ocean wave generation areas and the historical wave information from the recent GOW2 database are used to train the statistical model. This framework is also applied to obtain high resolution projections of coastal wave climate and coastal impacts as port operability and coastal flooding. Regional projections are estimated using the collection of weather types at spacing of 1.0°. This assumption is feasible because the predictor is defined based on the wave generation area and the classification is guided by the local wave climate. The assessment of future changes in coastal impacts is based on direct downscaling of indicators defined by empirical formulations (total water level for coastal flooding and number of hours per year with overtopping for port operability). Global multi-model projections of the significant wave height and peak period are consistent with changes obtained in previous studies. Statistical confidence of expected changes is obtained due to the large number of GCMs to construct the ensemble. The proposed methodology is proved to be flexible to project wave climate at different spatial scales. Regional changes of additional variables as wave direction or other statistics can be estimated from the future empirical distribution with extreme values restricted to high percentiles (i.e., 95th, 99th percentiles). The statistical framework can also be applied to evaluate regional coastal impacts integrating changes in storminess and sea level rise.

Description: Large parts of tropical coastlines are influenced by the presence of reefs that shape its coastline. Wave attenuation crossing reefs as they approach the coast results in accretionary coastal features developed in its shadow zones. With the aim of assessing the level of wave exposure of the coastline under different sea-level rise scenarios, numerical modeling experiments have been designed considering a coastline segment of approximately 450 km in northeast Brazil. Results show the distribution of wave power along the area of interest, with higher values being found in areas without reefs. However, when considering sea-level rise scenarios, it is behind the reefs where the maximum differences in wave power are observed. The increase in the free surface over the reef structures as a result of rising sea level reduces the wave attenuation effects caused by these structures. Thus, the waves hit the shore with greater force in the shadow zone protected by the reef. Here we demonstrate that regions within the reef shadow zones are most strongly affected by sea-level rise with up to a 90% increase in the wave power, which will lead to increase in sediment transport and erosion processes. Such processes indicate a trend toward coastline flattening and alignment in response to less effective shadow zones.

Description: Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research, however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirically-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, USA, for the period 2001–2100. Land-use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km 2  yr −1 ; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%, however the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Description: Wet bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) accounts for the effect of environmental temperature and humidity on thermal comfort, and can be directly related to the ability of the human body to dissipate excess metabolic heat and thus avoid heat stress. Using WBGT as a measure of environmental conditions conducive to heat stress, we show that anthropogenic influence has very substantially increased the likelihood of extreme high summer mean WBGT in northern hemispheric land areas relative to the climate that would have prevailed in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. We estimate that the likelihood of summer mean WGBT exceeding the observed historical record value has increased by a factor of at least 70 at regional scales due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. We further estimate that, in most northern hemispheric regions, these changes in the likelihood of extreme summer mean WBGT are roughly an order of magnitude larger than the corresponding changes in the likelihood of extreme hot summers as simply measured by surface air temperature. Projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario that are constrained by observations indicate that by 2030s at least 50% of the summers will have mean WBGT higher than the observed historical record value in all the analyzed regions, and that this frequency of occurrence will increase to 95% by mid-century.

Description: Global renewable electricity generation capacity has rapidly increased in the past decade. Increasing the sustainability of electricity generation and the market share of solar photovoltaics (PV) will require continued cost reductions or higher efficiencies. Wavelength-Selective Photovoltaic Systems (WSPVs) combine luminescent solar cell technology with conventional Silicon-based PV, thereby increasing efficiency and lowering the cost of electricity generation. WSPVs absorb some of the blue and green wavelengths of the solar spectrum but transmit the remaining wavelengths that can be utilized by photosynthesis for plants growing below. WSPVs are ideal for integrating electricity generation with glasshouse production, but it is not clear how they may affect plant development and physiological processes. The effects of tomato photosynthesis under WSPVs showed a small decrease in water use, whereas there were minimal effects on the number and fresh weight of fruit for a number of commercial species. Although more research is required on the impacts of WSPVs, they are a promising technology for greater integration of distributed electricity generation with food production operations, for reducing water loss in crops grown in controlled environments, as building-integrated solar facilities, or as alternatives to high-impact PV for energy generation over agricultural or natural ecosystems.

Description: The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This paper applied a modified Capitals Approach Framework (CAF), consisting of five “capitals”, to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three County governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Further, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.

Description: Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a non-flammable (i.e. wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e. dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America and Australia rate potential fire behaviour by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically-based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

Description: Sustainable development goals (SDGs) have set the 2030 agenda to transform our world by tackling multiple challenges humankind is facing to ensure well-being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. In contrast to conventional development agendas focusing on a restricted set of dimensions, the SDGs provide a holistic and multidimensional view on development. Hence, interactions among the SDGs may cause diverging results. To analyze the SDG interactions we systematize the identification of synergies and trade-offs using official SDG indicator data for 227 countries. A significant positive correlation between a pair of SDG indicators is classified as a synergy while a significant negative correlation is classified as a trade-off . We rank synergies and trade-offs between SDGs pairs on global and country scales in order to identify the most frequent SDG interactions. For a given SDG, positive correlations between indicator pairs were found to outweigh the negative ones in most countries. Among SDGs the positive and negative correlations between indicator pairs allowed for the identification of particular global patterns. SDG 1 ( No poverty ) has synergetic relationship with most of the other goals, whereas SDG 12 ( Responsible consumption and production ) is the goal most commonly associated with trade-offs. The attainment of the SDG agenda will greatly depend on whether the identified synergies among the goals can be leveraged. In addition, the highlighted trade-offs, which constitute obstacles in achieving the SDGs, need to be negotiated and made structurally nonobstructive by deeper changes in the current strategies.

Description: The potential of Coastal Ocean Alkalinization (COA), a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) climate engineering strategy that chemically increases ocean carbon uptake and storage, is investigated with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. The CDR potential and possible environmental side effects are estimated for various COA deployment scenarios, assuming olivine as the alkalinity source in ice-free coastal waters (about 8.6% of the global ocean's surface area), with dissolution rates being a function of grain size, ambient seawater temperature and pH. Our results indicate that for a large-enough olivine deployment of small-enough grain sizes (10 μm), atmospheric CO 2 could be reduced by more than 800 GtC by the year 2100. However, COA with coarse olivine grains (1000 μm) has little CO 2 sequestration potential on this time scale. Ambitious CDR with fine olivine grains would increase coastal aragonite saturation Ω to levels well beyond those that are currently observed. When imposing upper limits for aragonite saturation levels (Ω lim ) in the grid boxes subject to COA (Ω lim = 3.4 and 9 chosen as examples), COA still has the potential to reduce atmospheric CO 2 by 265 GtC (Ω lim =3.4) to 790 GtC (Ω lim =9) and increase ocean carbon storage by 290 Gt (Ω lim =3.4) to 913 Gt (Ω lim =9) by year 2100.

Description: Communication of climate change (CC) risks is challenging, in particular if global-scale spatially resolved quantitative information is to be conveyed. Typically, visualization of CC risks, which arise from the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, is confined to showing only the hazards in the form of global thematic maps. This paper explores the potential of contiguous value-by-area cartograms, i.e. distorted density-equalizing maps, for improving communication of CC risks and the countries’ differentiated responsibilities for CC. Two global-scale cartogram sets visualize, as an example, groundwater-related CC risks in 0.5° grid cells, another one the correlation of (cumulative) fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions with the countries’ population and gross domestic product. Viewers of the latter set visually recognize the lack of global equity and that the countries’ wealth has been built on harmful emissions. I recommend that CC risks are communicated by bivariate gridded cartograms showing the hazard in color and population, or a combination of population and a vulnerability indicator, by distortion of grid cells. Gridded cartograms are also appropriate for visualizing the availability of natural resources to humans. For communicating complex information, sets of cartograms should be carefully designed instead of presenting single cartograms. Inclusion of a conventionally-distorted map enhances the viewers’ capability to take up the information represented by distortion. Empirical studies about the capability of global cartograms to convey complex information and to trigger moral emotions should be conducted, with a special focus on risk communication.

Description: Increase of forest areas has the potential to increase the terrestrial carbon (C) sink. However, the efficiency for C sequestration depends on the availability of nutrients such as nitrogen (N), which is affected by climatic conditions and management practices. In this study, I analyze how N limitation affects C sequestration of afforestation and how it is influenced by individual climate variables, increased harvest, and fertilizer application. To this end, JSBACH, the land component of the Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is applied in idealized simulation experiments. In those simulations, large-scale afforestation increases the terrestrial C sink in the 21st century by around 100 Pg C compared to a business as usual land-use scenario. N limitation reduces C sequestration roughly by the same amount. The relevance of compensating effects of uptake and release of carbon dioxide by plant productivity and soil decomposition, respectively, gets obvious from the simulations. N limitation of both fluxes compensates particularly in the tropics. Increased mineralization under global warming triggers forest expansion, which otherwise is restricted by N availability. Due to compensating higher plant productivity and soil respiration, the global net effect of warming for C sequestration is however rather small. Fertilizer application and increased harvest enhance C sequestration as well as boreal expansion. The additional C sequestration achieved by fertilizer application is offset to a large part by additional emissions of nitrous oxide.

Description: Quantifying the annual flux of CO 2 (carbon dioxide) and equivalent emissions to the atmosphere is critical for both policy decisions and modeling of future climate change. Given the importance of greenhouse gas emissions to climate change and a recognized mismatch between sources and sinks (e.g., Liu & Dreybrodt , 2015), it is important to quantify these parameters. A significant and previously unrecognized CO 2 contribution arises from groundwater depletion (net removal from storage). The average annual 1.7 MMT (million metric tons) CO 2 released in the United States from this source is greater than approximately one third of the 23 major sources reported by the US EPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency) to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; US EPA, ).

Description: The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21 st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using “business-as-usual” scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

Description: With minimal moral hazard and adverse selection, weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions through swift compensation at affordable premium. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing gives rise to production basis risk as the selected weather indexes do not sufficiently correspond to actual damages. To address this problem, we develop a stochastic yield model, built upon a stochastic soil moisture model driven by marked Poisson rainfall. Our analysis shows that even under similar temperature and rainfall amount, yields can differ significantly; this was empirically supported by a two-year field experiment in which rain-fed maize was grown under very similar total rainfall amounts. Here, the year with more intense, less frequent rainfall produces a better yield—a rare counter evidence to most climate change projections. Through a stochastic yield model, we demonstrate the crucial roles of rainfall intensity and frequency in determining the yield. Importantly, the model allows us to compute rainfall pattern-related basis risk inherent in cumulative rain index insurance. The model results and a case study herein clearly show that total rainfall is a poor indicator of yield, imposing unnecessary production basis risk on farmers and false-positive payouts on insurers. Incorporating rainfall intensity and frequency in the design of rain index insurance can offer farmers better protection, while maintaining the attractive features of the weather index insurance and thus fulfilling its promise of financial resilience.

Description: Extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia has exhibited a weakening trend in the recent decade. Extratropical cyclones bring precipitation and hence supply fresh water for winter crops in the mid- and high-latitude regions of Eurasia. Any changes in extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia in the future may have a critical impact on winter agriculture and the economies of affected communities. However, potential future changes in regional storm activity over Eurasia have not been studied in detail. Therefore, in this study, we investigate anticipated changes in extratropical storm activity by the end of the century through a detailed examination of the historical and future emission scenarios from six different models from CMIP5. A statistical analysis of different parameters of storm activity using a storm identification and tracking algorithm reveals a decrease in the number of storms over mid-latitude regions. However, intense storms with longer duration are projected over high latitude Eurasia. A further examination of the physical mechanism for these changes reveals that a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient and a weakening of the vertical wind shear over the mid-latitudes are responsible for these expected changes in storm activity.

Description: Impacts of climate change relating to public health are often determined by multiple climate variables. The health-related metrics combining high-temperature and relative humidity are most concerned. Temperatures, relative humidity and relationship among them are investigated here for a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts over China. A projection of combined temperatures and humidity through the PRECIS model is addressed. The PRECIS model's skill in reproducing the historical climate over China was first gauged through validating its historical simulation with the observation dataset in terms of the two contributing variables. With good results of validation, a plausible range of combined temperatures and relative humidity were generated under RCPs. The results suggested that the annual mean temperature of China will increase up to 6 °C at the end of 21 st century. Opposite to the significantly change in the temperature, the maximum magnitude of changes in relative humidity is only 8% from the value in the baseline period. The dew point temperature is projected to be 14.9 °C (within the comfortable interval) over the whole nation under high radiative forcing scenario at the end of this century. Therefore, the combination effects of high-temperatures and relative humidity are substantially smaller than generally anticipated for China. Even though the impact-relevant metric like the dew point temperature is not projected as bad as the generally anticipated, we found that the frequency of high-temperature extremes increases up to 40% and the duration increases up to 150% in China. China is still expected to have more number of extremely hot days, more frequent high-temperature extremes, and longer duration of warm spell than before. Regionally, South China has the smallest changes in the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures while the largest increases in all five high-temperature indices. Consequently, the climate over South China for two future periods will be changing more drastically than the baseline period. Extra cautions need to be given to South China in the future.

Description: Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record-breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A simple methodology designed for estimating the anthropogenic influence on rates of record-breaking in a given timeseries is proposed here. The frequency of hot and cold record-breaking temperature occurrences is shown to be changing due to the anthropogenic influence on the climate. Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human-induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record-breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s. On local scales, a climate change signal is detected more recently at most locations. The anthropogenic influence on the increased occurrence of hot record-breaking temperatures is clearer than it is for the decreased occurrence of cold records. The approach proposed here could be applied in rapid attribution studies of record extremes to quantify the influence of climate change on the rate of record-breaking in addition to the climate anomaly being studied. This application is demonstrated for the global temperature record of 2016 and the Central England temperature record in 2014.

Description: Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and fresh water availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this paper. First, this paper proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: Melting Ice and Global Consequences; Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity; Carbon Feedbacks in the Climate System; Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes; Water for the Food Baskets of the World; Regional Sea-Level Change and Coastal Impacts; and Near-term Climate Prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs.

Description: Thank you 2016 Earth's Future reviewers! As the journal completed its third full year in 2016 (in 2013 only one monthly issue was posted) I am pleased to report that submissions were up significantly. In 2016 we received 159 manuscripts, of which ~120 were sent for external review. The acceptance rate of the journal stayed around the 50% mark, reflecting the high expectations of our reviewers and editors.

Description: South-east Spain is a drought prone area, characterized by climate variability and water scarcity. The Jucar River Basin, located in Eastern Spain, has suffered many historical droughts with significant socio-economic impacts. For nearly a hundred years, the institutional and non-institutional strategies to cope with droughts have been successful through the development of institutions and partnerships for drought management including multiple actors. In this paper, we show how the creation and institutionalisation of Multi-Sector Partnerships has supported the development of an efficient drought management. Furthermore, we analyse the performance of one of the suggested instruments by the partnership related to drought management in the basin. Two methodologies are used for these purposes. On the one hand, the Capital Approach Framework to analyse the effectiveness of the governance processes in a particular partnership (Permanent Drought Commission), which aims to highlight the governance strength and weakness of the Multi-Sector Partnership for enhancing drought management in the Jucar River Basin. Through a dynamic analysis of the changes that the partnership has undergone over time to successfully deal with droughts, it is demonstrated its effectiveness on drought management. On the other hand, an econometric approach is used to analyse the economic efficiency of the emergency drought wells as one of the key drought mitigation measures suggested by the Permanent Drought Commission and implemented. The results demonstrate the potential and efficiency of applying drought wells as mitigation measures (significant reduction of economic losses, around 50 M€ during the drought period, 2005 to 2008).

Description: Massive near-term greenhouse gas emissions reduction is a precondition for staying “well below 2°C” global warming as envisaged by the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, extensive terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) through managed biomass growth and subsequent carbon capture and storage is required to avoid temperature “overshoot” in most pertinent scenarios. Here, we address two major issues: First, we calculate the extent of tCDR required to “repair” delayed or insufficient emissions reduction policies unable to prevent global mean temperature rise of 2.5°C or even 4.5°C above pre-industrial level. Our results show that those tCDR measures are unable to counteract “business-as-usual” emissions without eliminating virtually all natural ecosystems. Even if considerable (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 [RCP4.5]) emissions reductions are assumed, tCDR with 50% storage efficiency requires 〉1.1 Gha of the most productive agricultural areas or the elimination of 〉50% of natural forests. In addition, 〉100 MtN/yr fertilizers would be needed to remove the roughly 320 GtC foreseen in these scenarios. Such interventions would severely compromise food production and/or biosphere functioning. Second, we reanalyze the requirements for achieving the 160–190 GtC tCDR that would complement strong mitigation action (RCP2.6) in order to avoid 2°C overshoot anytime. We find that a combination of high irrigation water input and/or more efficient conversion to stored carbon is necessary. In the face of severe trade-offs with society and the biosphere, we conclude that large-scale tCDR is not a viable alternative to aggressive emissions reduction. However, we argue that tCDR might serve as a valuable “supporting actor” for strong mitigation if sustainable schemes are established immediately.

Description: Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the US. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.

Description: This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21 st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to GDP growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21 st century.

Description: ABSTRACT Recent USGS water use report suggests that increasing water-use efficiency could mitigate the supply-and-demand imbalance arising from changing climate and growing population. However, this rich data has not been analyzed to understand the underlying patterns, nor have been investigated to identify the factors contributing to this increased efficiency. A national-scale synthesis of public supply withdrawals (“withdrawals”) reveals a strong North–south gradient in public supply water use with the increasing population in the South contributing to increased withdrawal. Contrastingly, a reverse South–north gradient exists in per-capita withdrawals (“efficiency”), with northern states consistently improving the efficiency, while the southern states’ efficiency declined. Our analyses of spatial patterns of per-capita withdrawals further demonstrate that urban counties exhibit improved efficiency over rural counties. Improved efficiency is also demonstrated over high-income and well-educated counties. Given the potential implications of the findings in developing long-term water conservation measures (i.e., increasing block rates), we argue the need for frequent updates, perhaps monthly to annual, of water use data for identifying effective strategies that control the water-use efficiency in various geographic settings under a changing climate.