Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
The majority of the historic eruptions recorded at Miyakejima volcano were fissure eruptions that occurred on
the flanks of the volcano. During the last 1100 years, 17 fissure eruptions have been reported with a mean
interval of about 76–78 years. In the last century, the mean interval between fissure eruptions decreased to
21–22 years, increasing significantly the threat of lava flowinundations to people and property. Herewe quantify
the lava flow hazards posed by effusive eruptions inMiyakejima by combining field data, numerical simulations
and probability analysis. Our analysis is the first to assess both the spatiotemporal probability of vent opening,
which highlights the areas most likely to host a new eruption, and the lava flow hazard, which shows the
probabilities of lava-flow inundation in the next 50 years. Future eruptive vents are expected in the vicinity of
the Hatchodaira caldera, radiating from the summit of the volcano toward the costs. Areas more likely to be
threatened by lava flows are Ako and Kamitsuki villages, as well as Miike port and Miyakejima airport. Thus,
our results can be useful for risk evaluation, investment decisions, and emergency response preparation.
Description:
Published
Description:
1-9
Description:
1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
Description:
3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
Description:
5V. Sorveglianza vulcanica ed emergenze
Description:
6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
restricted
Keywords:
MAGFLOW model
;
vent opening probability
;
04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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