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  • Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology  (14)
  • Natural Disasters  (13)
  • Oxford University Press  (27)
  • 2015-2019  (27)
  • 1930-1934
  • 2016  (27)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-07-09
    Description: Large rural-urban wage gaps observed in many developing countries are suggestive of barriers to migration that keep potential migrants in rural areas. Using long panel data spanning nearly two decades, I study the extent to which migration rates are constrained by liquidity constraints in rural Tanzania. The analysis begins by quantifying the impact of weather variation on household welfare. The results show how household consumption co-moves with temperature, rendering households vulnerable to local weather events. These temperature-induced income shocks are then found to inhibit long-term migration among men, thus preventing them from tapping into the opportunities brought about by geographical mobility.
    Keywords: O12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, O15 - Human Resources ; Human Development ; Income Distribution ; Migration, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming, R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-05-05
    Description: We study a model of lava flow to determine its thermal and dynamic characteristics from thermal measurements of the lava at its surface. Mathematically this problem is reduced to solving an inverse boundary problem. Namely, using known conditions at one part of the model boundary we determine the missing condition at the remaining part of the boundary. We develop a numerical approach to the mathematical problem in the case of steady-state flow. Assuming that the temperature and the heat flow are prescribed at the upper surface of the model domain, we determine the flow characteristics in the entire model domain using a variational (adjoint) method. We have performed computations of model examples and showed that in the case of smooth input data the lava temperature and the flow velocity can be reconstructed with a high accuracy. As expected, a noise imposed on the smooth input data results in a less accurate solution, but still acceptable below some noise level. Also we analyse the influence of optimization methods on the solution convergence rate. The proposed method for reconstruction of physical parameters of lava flows can also be applied to other problems in geophysical fluid flows.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2016-05-06
    Description: Studies of discrete volcanic explosions, that usually last less than 2 or 3 min, have suggested that the partitioning of seismic-acoustic energy is likely related to a range of physical mechanisms that depend on magma properties and other physical constraints such as the location of the fragmentation surface. In this paper, we explore the energy partition of a paroxysmal eruptive phase of Tungurahua volcano that lasted for over 4 hr, on 2006 July 14–15, using seismic-acoustic information recorded by stations on its flanks (near field). We find evidence of a linear scaling between seismic and acoustic energies, with time-dependent intensities, during the sustained explosive phase of the eruption. Furthermore, we argue that this scaling can be explained by two different processes: (1) the fragmentation region ultimately acts as the common source of energy producing both direct seismic waves, that travel through the volcanic edifice, and direct acoustic waves coming from a disturbed atmosphere above the summit; (2) the coupling of acoustic waves with the ground to cause seismic waves. Both processes are concurrent, however we have found that the first one is dominant for seismic records below 4 Hz. Here we use the linear scaling of intensities to construct seismic and acoustic indices, which, we argue, could be used to track an ongoing eruption. Thus, especially in strong paroxysms that can produce pyroclastic flows, the index correlation and their levels can be used as quantitative monitoring parameters to assess the volcanic hazard in real time. Additionally, we suggest from the linear scaling that the source type for both cases, seismic and acoustic, is dipolar and dominant in the near field.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2016-08-20
    Description: A multi-year drought has taken a severe toll on the agricultural economy of California’s Central Valley. Index insurance is an instrument with the potential to protect water users from economic losses due to periodic water shortages. An index insurance product based on the Sacramento Index and adapted to the Central Valley Project water supply is proposed. To address the potential for intertemporal adverse selection, three product designs are suggested: (1) "early bird" insurance; (2) variable premium insurance; and (3) variable deductible insurance. The performance of the designs are assessed using loss functions from the Westlands Water District in the San Joaquin Valley.
    Keywords: Q14 - Agricultural Finance, Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2016-06-19
    Description: The expansion of offshore renewable energy infrastructure and the need for trans-continental shelf power transmission require the use of submarine high-voltage (HV) cables. These cables have maximum operating surface temperatures of up to 70 °C and are typically buried 1–2 m beneath the seabed, within the wide range of substrates found on the continental shelf. However, the heat flow pattern and potential effects on the sedimentary environments around such anomalously high heat sources in the near-surface sediments are poorly understood. We present temperature measurements from a 2-D laboratory experiment representing a buried submarine HV cable, and identify the thermal regimes generated within typical unconsolidated shelf sediments—coarse silt, fine sand and very coarse sand. We used a large (2 x 2.5 m 2 ) tank filled with water-saturated spherical glass beads (ballotini) and instrumented with a buried heat source and 120 thermocouples to measure the time-dependent 2-D temperature distributions. The observed and corresponding Finite Element Method simulations of the steady state heat flow regimes and normalized radial temperature distributions were assessed. Our results show that the heat transfer and thus temperature fields generated from submarine HV cables buried within a range of sediments are highly variable. Coarse silts are shown to be purely conductive, producing temperature increases of 〉10 °C up to 40 cm from the source of 60 °C above ambient; fine sands demonstrate a transition from conductive to convective heat transfer between cf. 20 and 36 °C above ambient, with 〉10 °C heat increases occurring over a metre from the source of 55 °C above ambient; and very coarse sands exhibit dominantly convective heat transfer even at very low ( cf. 7 °C) operating temperatures and reaching temperatures of up to 18 °C above ambient at a metre from the source at surface temperatures of only 18 °C. These findings are important for the surrounding near-surface environments experiencing such high temperatures and may have significant implications for chemical and physical processes operating at the grain and subgrain scale; biological activity at both microfaunal and macrofaunal levels; and indeed the operational performance of the cables themselves, as convective heat transport would increase cable current ratings, something neglected in existing standards.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2016-07-09
    Description: Climate change affects agriculture by altering not only output quantity, but also crop quality. We quantify the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture through changes in both quantity and quality, where quality is measured by crop grades. Our model controls for methodological issues regarding sample selection, aggregation, phenology, and nonlinearity. The empirical application to Japanese rice production indicates that temperature effects are asymmetric: quantity is especially vulnerable to cold, whereas quality is vulnerable to extremely high temperature. Using these results, we simulate the effect of global warming, and we find that warming (a 3 °C increase) increases farm revenues by improving yield but decreases revenues as a result of deteriorating quality. The net effect is negative, suggesting that quality matters more than quantity. The negative effect, however, can be mitigated by shifting cultivation periods and/or regions. Overall, our results suggest that the estimated impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies could be severely misleading unless quality is considered.
    Keywords: L15 - Information and Product Quality ; Standardization and Compatibility, Q10 - General, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2016-02-03
    Description: The availability of practical mechanisms for comparing domestic efforts aimed at mitigating global climate change is important for the stability, equity, and efficiency of international climate agreements. We examine a variety of metrics that could be used to compare countries’ climate change mitigation efforts and illustrate their potential application to large developed and developing countries. Because there is no single, comprehensive, measurable metric that could be applied to all countries, we suggest using a set of indicators to characterize and compare mitigation effort, akin to using a set of economic statistics to indicate the health of the macroeconomy. Given the iterative pledge-and-review approach that is emerging in the current climate change negotiations, participation, commitment, and compliance could be enhanced if this set of indicators is able to show that all parties are doing their "fair share," both prospectively and retrospectively. The latter, in particular, highlights the need for a well-functioning policy surveillance regime. ( JEL : Q54, Q58, F55)
    Keywords: Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming, Q58 - Government Policy, F55 - International Institutional Arrangements
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2016-02-03
    Description: In this article, we provide an overview of the extensive literature on the impact of weather and climate on grapes and wine, with the goal of identifying how climate change is likely to affect their production. We first discuss the physical impact of weather on vine phenology (i.e., the timing of biological events such as bud break or flowering), berry composition, and yields. Then we examine the economic literature that measures the effects of temperature on wine quality, prices, costs, and profits and, based on this review, infer how climate change will affect these variables. We also describe what has been learned thus far about possible adaptation strategies for grape growers that would allow them to mitigate the economic effects of climate change. We conclude that climate change is likely to produce both winners and losers, with the winners being those located closer to the North and South Poles. There are also likely to be some substantial short-run costs as growers adapt to climate change. Nevertheless, wine making has survived through thousands of years of recorded history, a history that has included significant climate changes. ( JEL : Q13, Q18, Q54)
    Keywords: Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2016-02-03
    Description: This article reviews the recent literature on ex post evaluation of the impacts of the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on regulated firms in the industrial and power sectors. We summarize the findings from original research papers concerning three broadly defined impacts: carbon dioxide emissions, economic performance and competitiveness, and innovation. We conclude by highlighting gaps in the current literature and suggesting priorities for future research on this landmark policy. ( JEL : Q52, Q54, Q58)
    Keywords: Q52 - Pollution Control Costs ; Distributional Effects ; Employment Effects, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming, Q58 - Government Policy
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2016-02-03
    Description: This article provides an introduction to the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading System (ETS). First we describe the legislative development of the EU ETS, its evolution from free allocation to auctioning and centralized allocation rules, its relationship to the Kyoto Protocol and other trading systems, and its relationship to other EU climate and energy policies. This is followed by an assessment of the performance of the EU ETS, which focuses in particular on emissions, allowance prices, and the use of offsets. We conclude with a discussion of the current debate about the future of the EU ETS and proposals for changes to both the EU ETS and the climate policy environment in which it operates. ( JEL : Q54, Q58)
    Keywords: Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming, Q58 - Government Policy
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2016-02-03
    Description: The December 2015 Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change meetings in Paris are likely to yield a global agreement that will slow the world’s growth of greenhouse gas emissions, but this agreement is unlikely to guarantee a decline in global emissions in the near future. Given this reality, climate change adaptation is an increasingly important topic for discussion and study. Although much research has focused on the macroeconomic relationship between economic growth and temperature at the national and/or annual level, microeconomic analysis also offers valuable insights. This Reflections discusses recent work on household and firm responses to three climate change challenges: increased summer heat, higher food prices, and increased natural disaster risk. ( JEL : Q54)
    Keywords: Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2016-03-03
    Description: The presence of calcite in and near faults, as the dominant material, cement, or vein fill, indicates that the mechanical behaviour of carbonate-dominated material likely plays an important role in shallow- and mid-crustal faulting. To better understand the behaviour of calcite, under loading conditions relevant to earthquake nucleation, we sheared powdered gouge of Carrara Marble, 〉98 per cent CaCO 3 , at constant normal stresses between 1 and 100 MPa under water-saturated conditions at room temperature. We performed slide-hold-slide tests, 1–3000 s, to measure the amount of static frictional strengthening and creep relaxation, and velocity-stepping tests, 0.1–1000 μm s –1 , to evaluate frictional stability. We observe that the rates of frictional strengthening and creep relaxation decrease with increasing normal stress and diverge as shear velocity is increased from 1 to 3000 μm s –1 during slide-hold-slide experiments. We also observe complex frictional stability behaviour that depends on both normal stress and shearing velocity. At normal stresses less than 20 MPa, we observe predominantly velocity-neutral friction behaviour. Above 20 MPa, we observe strong velocity-strengthening frictional behaviour at low velocities, which then evolves towards velocity-weakening friction behaviour at high velocities. Microstructural analyses of recovered samples highlight a variety of deformation mechanisms including grain size reduction and localization, folding of calcite grains and fluid-assisted diffusion mass transfer processes promoting the development of calcite nanograins in the highly deformed portions of the experimental fault. Our combined analyses indicate that calcite fault gouge transitions from brittle to semi-brittle behaviour at high normal stress and slow sliding velocities. This transition has important implications for earthquake nucleation and propagation on faults in carbonate-dominated lithologies.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: In the estimation of Ricardian models the endogeneity of adaptation measures is typically ignored. In this article we propose a new estimation strategy that explicitly recognises the endogeneity of the farm type and irrigation to climate. Based on the latest census data on over 270,000 farms in Germany, we estimate a cross-sectional, spatial-IV model that decomposes the effects of climate on farm profitability into direct (unmediated) and indirect (mediated by the variables that reflect adaptation). Our results show that neglecting the endogenous nature of adaptation measures may substantially bias the magnitude of the total effect of climate on farm profitability.
    Keywords: C21 - Cross-Sectional Models ; Spatial Models ; Treatment Effect Models, C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, C36- Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2016-02-03
    Description: The elastic properties of homogeneous, isotropic materials are well constrained. However, in heterogeneous and evolving materials, these essential properties are less well-explored. During sintering of volcanic ash particles by viscous processes as well as during compaction and cementation of sediments, microstructure and porosity undergo changes that affect bulk dynamic elastic properties. Here using a model system of glass particles as an analogue for initially granular rock-forming materials, we have determined porosity and P -wave velocity during densification. Using these results, we test models for the kinetics of densification and the resultant evolution of the elastic properties to derive a quantitative description of the coupling between the kinetics of isotropic densification and the evolving dynamic elastic moduli. We demonstrate the power of the resultant model on a wide range of data for non-coherent sediments as well as sedimentary and volcanic rocks. We propose that such constraints be viewed as an essential ingredient of time-dependent models for the deformation of evolving materials in volcanoes and sedimentary basins.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2016-05-14
    Description: We present a study of the seismic velocity variations that occurred in the structure before the large 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano. For the first time to our knowledge, the technique of coda wave interferometry is applied to both families of similar events (multiplets) and to correlation functions of seismic noise. About half of the seismic events recorded at the summit stations belong to one of the ten multiplets identified, including 120 similar events that occurred in the last 20 hr preceding the eruption onset. Daily noise cross-correlation functions (NCF) were calculated for the six pairs of short-period stations available. Using the stretching method, we estimate time-series of apparent velocity variation (AVV) for each multiplet and each pair of stations. No significant velocity change is detected until September 2010. From 10 October to the beginning of the eruption on 26 October, a complex pattern of AVV is observed with amplitude of up to ±1.5 per cent. Velocity decrease is first observed from families of deep events and then from shallow earthquakes. In the same period, AVV with different signs and chronologies are estimated from NCF calculated for various station pairs. The location in the horizontal plane of the velocity perturbations related with the AVV obtained from NCF is estimated by using an approach based on the radiative transfer approximation. Although their spatial resolution is limited, the resulting maps display velocity decrease in the upper part of the edifice in the period 12–25 October. After the eruption onset, the pattern of velocity perturbations is significantly modified with respect to the previous one. We interpret these velocity variations in the framework of a scenario of magmatic intrusion that integrates most observations. The perturbation of the stress field associated with the magma migration can induce both decrease and increase of the seismic velocity of rocks. Thus the detected AVVs can be considered as precursors of volcanic eruptions in andesitic volcanoes, without taking their sign into account.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2016-05-06
    Description: The influx of groundwater into hot kimberlite deposits results in the reaction of water with olivine-rich rocks. The products of the reaction are serpentine and release of latent heat. The rise of temperature due to the heat release increases the rate of the reaction. Under certain conditions, this self-speeding up of the reaction can result in instabilities associated with a significantly higher final serpentinization in slightly warmer regions of the kimberlite deposit. We conduct linear stability analysis of serpentinization in an isolated volume of porous kimberlitic rocks saturated with water and an inert gas. There is a counteracting interplay between the heat release tending to destabilize the uniform distribution of parameters and the heat conduction tending to stabilize it by smoothing out temperature perturbations. We determine the critical spatial scale separating the parameters where one phenomenon dominates over another. The perturbations of longer-than-critical length grow, whereas the perturbations of shorter-than-critical length fade. The analytical results of the linear stability analysis are supported by direct numerical simulations using a full nonlinear model.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2016-05-22
    Description: Inelastic deformation can either occur with dilatancy or compaction, implying differences in porosity changes, failure and petrophysical properties. In this study, the roles of water as a pore fluid, and of temperature, on the deformation and failure of a micritic limestone (white Tavel limestone, porosity 14.7 per cent) were investigated under triaxial stresses. For each sample, a hydrostatic load was applied up to the desired confining pressure (from 0 up to 85 MPa) at either room temperature or at 70 °C. Two pore fluid conditions were investigated at room temperature: dry and water saturated. The samples were deformed up to failure at a constant strain rate of ~10 –5 s –1 . The experiments were coupled with ultrasonic wave velocity surveys to monitor crack densities. The linear trend between the axial crack density and the relative volumetric strain beyond the onset of dilatancy suggests that cracks propagate at constant aspect ratio. The decrease of ultrasonic wave velocities beyond the onset of inelastic compaction in the semi-brittle regime indicates the ongoing interplay of shear-enhanced compaction and crack development. Water has a weakening effect on the onset of dilatancy in the brittle regime, but no measurable influence on the peak strength. Temperature lowers the confining pressure at which the brittle–semi-brittle transition is observed but does not change the stress states at the onset of inelastic compaction and at the post-yield onset of dilatancy.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2016-04-24
    Description: We construct a stochastic dynamic dual model to investigate the structural adjustment of two aggregate output and three aggregate input categories in US agriculture under stochastic climatic change. More than a century of national annual data (1910–2011) is used in the empirical analysis. No constraints on asset fixity are imposed. Results indicate that, with rational expectations, both output categories as well as all input categories exhibit quasi-fixity in response to market change and stochastic climate change. Crops adjust more than twice as fast as livestock—49% versus 20% of the way toward their long-run equilibrium in one year. Fertilizer adjusts most rapidly toward equilibrium levels (88% in one year), and capital adjusts most slowly (5% in one year). Labor oscillates rather than converging smoothly toward equilibrium; its distance from equilibrium is the same as if it adjusted 59% of the way toward its optimal level in one year. Failing to anticipate climate change dramatically slows the estimated rate of adjustment for two netputs and modestly speeds the rate for two others, thus likely increasing overall adjustment costs. Failing to account for uncertainty in anticipated climate change has little impact on adjustment rates.
    Keywords: Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2016-02-10
    Description: This study quantifies how leakage behavior from afforesting agricultural land affects the intensification of agricultural production. In particular, we examine the leakage percentage from carbon offset allowance at specific southern regions in the United States as a part of a carbon market. We use the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model-Greenhouse Gases model to examine responses between sectors as part of the regional afforestation policy analysis. Regional characteristics and a policy's time frame are found to play important roles in achieving net gains, in terms of greenhouse gases stored, from such regional policies. In some cases, however, leakage greater than 100% is evident.
    Keywords: Q23 - Forestry, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming, R14 - Land Use Patterns
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2016-02-12
    Description: Remote sensing thermal data of active lava flows allow the evaluation of effusion rates. This is made possible by a simple formula relating the lava effusion rate to the heat flux radiated per unit time from the surface of the flow. Due to the assumptions of the model, this formula implies that heat flux, surface temperature and lava temperature vary as a function of the flow thickness. These relationships, never verified or validated before, have been used by several authors as a proof of the weakness of the model. Here, multispectral infrared and visible imaging spectrometer (MIVIS) high spatial resolution (5–10 m) thermal data acquired during Etna's 2001 eruption were used to investigate downflow heat flux variations in the lava flow emitted from a vent located at 2100 m a.s.l. A high correlation between the downflow heat flux and the lava flow thickness (measured from a pre-existing digital elevation model) was found. Topography beneath the flow appears to play an important role both in lava emplacement mechanisms and flow dynamics. MIVIS-derived downflow effusion rates are consistent with the law of conservation of mass assessing the reliability of remote sensing techniques.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2016-12-22
    Description: We performed complex conductivity measurements on 28 core samples from the hole drilled for the Humu'ula Groundwater Research Project (Hawai'i Island, HI, USA). The complex conductivity measurements were performed at 4 different pore water conductivities (0.07, 0.5, 1.0 or 2.0, and 10 S m –1 prepared with NaCl) over the frequency range 1 mHz to 45 kHz at 22 ± 1 °C. The in-phase conductivity data are plotted against the pore water conductivity to determine, sample by sample, the intrinsic formation factor and the surface conductivity. The intrinsic formation factor is related to porosity by Archie's law with an average value of the cementation exponent m of 2.45, indicating that only a small fraction of the connected pore space controls the transport properties. Both the surface and quadrature conductivities are found to be linearly related to the cation exchange capacity of the material, which was measured with the cobalt hexamine chloride method. Surface and quadrature conductivities are found to be proportional to each other like for sedimentary siliclastic rocks. A Stern layer polarization model is used to explain these experimental results. Despite the fact that the samples contain some magnetite (up to 5 per cent wt.), we were not able to identify the effect of this mineral on the complex conductivity spectra. These results are very encouraging in showing that galvanometric induced polarization measurements can be used in volcanic areas to separate the bulk from the surface conductivity and therefore to define some alteration attributes. Such a goal cannot be achieved with resistivity alone.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2016-12-22
    Description: We investigate the relationship between complex conductivity spectra and both permeability and pore mean size and distribution of 22 core samples (21 volcanic rocks and 1 clayey sandstone). The volcanic core samples were extracted from a wellbore drilled for the Humu‘ula Groundwater Research Project in the Humu‘ula saddle region between Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa volcanoes (Hawaii). The quadrature conductivity spectra of volcanic rocks exhibit a subtle, but generally detectable, relaxation frequency in the range 0.3 Hz to 45 kHz similar to the relaxation frequency observed for clayey sandstones. We find a fair relationship between this relaxation frequency and the pore size determined by mercury porosimetry. Combined with the intrinsic formation factor of the core samples, the relaxation frequency can be used as an indicator of the permeability of the material. The predicted values of the permeability are grossly consistent with the permeability values to air (in the range 0.001–100 mD) within two orders of magnitude. The measured permeability values are highly correlated to the peak of the pore size distribution determined from mercury porosimetry divided by the intrinsic formation factor. By fitting the complex conductivity spectra with the pore size distribution, we obtain the normalized chargeability of the core samples, which is, in turn, highly correlated to the measured cation exchange capacity.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2016-11-10
    Description: The Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (PCCVC) is one of the best examples of tectonic control on volcanism at the Southern Volcanic Zone of the Andes (southern Chile). The PCCVC comprises several volcanic centres that erupted dominantly SiO 2 -rich magmas at the intersection of the trench-parallel Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone (LOFZ) and an inherited NW–SE basement structure. The PCCVC began an explosive and later effusive eruption on 2011 June 4 causing decimetre- to metre-scale surface deformation that was observed by a series of Envisat ASAR satellite scenes. We modelled this data and complemented it with time-series of two continuous GPS stations and seismicity recorded by a local network. Deformation during the first 3 days of the eruption can be modelled either by two point sources aligned with the NW–SE Cordón Caulle graben or by a closing dyke with a significant component of left-lateral motion along the graben. These models are discussed with respect to their implications on the estimated rheology and the eruption mechanism. GPS observations near the volcanic complex reveal an additional, more localised effect related to the LOFZ in the south of the complex. Coeruptive deformation at the main geological structures of the PCCVC is further supported by relocated seismicity, which is concentrated along the Cordón Caulle graben and to the western side of the LOFZ.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2016-01-02
    Description: Coal fires are severe hazards to environment, health and safety throughout the world. Efficient and economical extinguishing of these fires requires that the extent of the subsurface coal fires should be delineated. Electrical and electromagnetic methods have been used to detect coal fires in recent years. However, the resistivity change of coal-bearing rocks at high temperature is rarely investigated. The resistivity characteristics of coal fires at different temperatures and depths are seldomly researched as well. In this paper, we present the results of measurements of several coal-bearing rocks’ resistivity and permeability under high temperature. Two major causes for the change in resistivity with increasing temperature are recognized, there are the increase of charge carriers and thermal fracturing, of which the first one is probably the dominant cause. A set of 2-D simulations is carried out to compare the relation of resolution and efficiency of coal fires detection to temperature and depth when adopting the electrical resistance tomography. The simulation results show that the resolution and efficiency decrease with the decrease of temperature and the increase of depth. Finally, the electrical resistance tomography is used to delineate coal fires in the Anjialing Open Pit Mine. Most low-resistivity regions are verified as coal-fire areas according to the long-term monitoring of borehole temperature. The results indicate that the electrical resistance tomography can be used as a tool for the detection of coal fires.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2016-12-07
    Description: Much attention has been paid to the potential role that climate and food security has on conflict, especially in the Middle East. However, there has been little critical examination beyond the statistical correlation of events, which demonstrates whether a causal link exists and if it does, what can be done about it. This paper explores the conceptual linkages between food and conflict and attempts to draw attention to the opportunity cost of conflict as the nexus for decision-making in this context.
    Keywords: D74 - Conflict ; Conflict Resolution ; Alliances, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2016-12-07
    Description: What are second-generation (2G) biofuel technologies worth to global society? A dynamic, economic model is used to assess the impact that introducing 2G biofuels technology has on crops, livestock, biofuels, forestry, and environmental services, as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Under baseline conditions, this amounts to $64 billion and is $84 billion under the optimistic technology case, suggesting that investing in 2G technology could be appropriate. Under greenhouse gas regulation, global valuation more than doubles to $139 and $174 billion, respectively. A flat energy price scenario eliminates the value of 2G technology to society.
    Keywords: Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q42 - Alternative Energy Sources, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2016-10-21
    Description: Accurate information on thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity of materials is of central importance in relation to geoscience and engineering problems involving the transfer of heat. Several methods, including the classical divided bar technique, are available for laboratory measurements of thermal conductivity, but much fewer for thermal diffusivity. We have generalized the divided bar technique to the transient case in which thermal conductivity, volumetric heat capacity and thereby also thermal diffusivity are measured simultaneously. As the density of samples is easily determined independently, specific heat capacity can also be determined. The finite element formulation provides a flexible forward solution for heat transfer across the bar, and thermal properties are estimated by inverse Monte Carlo modelling. This methodology enables a proper quantification of experimental uncertainties on measured thermal properties and information on their origin. The developed methodology was applied to various materials, including a standard ceramic material and different rock samples, and measuring results were compared with results applying traditional steady-state divided bar and an independent line-source method. All measurements show highly consistent results and with excellent reproducibility and high accuracy. For conductivity the obtained uncertainty is typically 1–3 per cent, and for diffusivity uncertainty may be reduced to about 3–5 per cent. The main uncertainty originates from the presence of thermal contact resistance associated with the internal interfaces in the bar. These are not resolved during inversion and it is imperative that they are minimized. The proposed procedure is simple and may quite easily be implemented to the many steady-state divided bar systems in operation. A thermally controlled bath, as applied here, may not be needed. Simpler systems, such as applying temperature-controlled water directly from a tap, may also be applied.
    Keywords: Mineral Physics, Rheology, Heat Flow and Volcanology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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