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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous  (3)
  • American Geophysical Union  (2)
  • Nature Publishing Group  (1)
  • Annual Reviews
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • 2010-2014  (3)
  • 2000-2004
  • 1980-1984
  • 2014  (3)
Collection
Keywords
Publisher
Years
  • 2010-2014  (3)
  • 2000-2004
  • 1980-1984
Year
  • 1
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    Probabilistic modeling of future volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The statistical analysis of volcanic activity at Mt Etna was conducted with the twofold aim of (1) constructing a probability map for vent opening of future flank eruptions and (2) forecasting the expected number of eruptive events at the summit craters. The spatiotemporal map of new vent opening at Etna volcano is based on the analysis of spatial locations and frequency of flank eruptions starting from 1610. Thanks to the completeness and accuracy of historical data over the last four centuries, we examined in detail the spatial and temporal distribution of flank eruptions showing that effusive events follow a nonhomogenous Poisson process with space-time varying intensities. After demonstrating the spatial nonhomogeneity and the temporal nonstationarity of flank eruptions at Etna, we calculated the recurrence rates (events expected per unit area per unit time) and produced different spatiotemporal probability maps of new vent opening in the next 1, 10 and 50 years. These probabilistic maps have an immediate use in evaluating the future timing and areas of Etna prone to volcanic hazards. Finally, the results of the analysis of the persistent summit activity during the last 110 years indicate that the hazard rate for eruptive events is not constant with time, differs for each summit crater of Mt Etna, highlighting a general increase in the eruptive frequency starting from the middle of last century and particularly from 1971, when the SE crater was formed.
    Description: This work was developed in the frame of the TecnoLab, the Laboratory for the Technological Advance in Volcano Geophysics organized by INGV-CT, DIEES-UNICT, and DMI-UNICT.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1925-1935
    Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico e sistemi informatici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Etna ; probabilistic modeling ; eruption ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Lava flow hazards at Mount Etna: constraints imposed by eruptive history and numerical simulations (2014)
    Nature Publishing Group
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Improving lava flow hazard assessment is one of the most important and challenging fields of volcanology, and has an immediate and practical impact on society. Here, we present a methodology for the quantitative assessment of lava flow hazards based on a combination of field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses. With the extensive data available on historic eruptions of Mt. Etna, going back over 2000 years, it has been possible to construct two hazard maps, one for flank and the other for summit eruptions, allowing a quantitative analysis of the most likely future courses of lava flows. The effective use of hazard maps of Etna may help in minimizing the damage from volcanic eruptions through correct land use in densely urbanized area with a population of almost one million people. Although this study was conducted on Mt. Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas.
    Description: This work was developed within the framework of TecnoLab, the Laboratory for Technological Advance in Volcano Geophysics organized by INGV-CT, DIEES-UNICT, and DMI-UNICT.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3493
    Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico e sistemi informatici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Lava flow hazard ; Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Seismo-tectonic behavior of the Pernicana Fault System (Mt Etna): A gauge for volcano flank instability? (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Flank instability at basaltic volcanoes is often related to repeated dike intrusions along rift zones and accompanied by surface fracturing and seismicity. These processes have been mostly studied during specific events, and the lack of longer-term observations hinders their better understanding. Here we analyze ~20 years of deformation of the Pernicana Fault System (PFS), the key structure controlling the instability of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna. We exploit East-West and vertical components of mean deformation velocity, as well as corresponding time series, computed from ERS/ENVISAT (1992–2010) and COSMO-SkyMed (2009–2011) satellite radar sensors via Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry techniques. We then integrate and compare this information with field, seismic, and leveling data, collected between 1980 and 2012. We observe transient displacements accompanied by seismicity, overprinted on a long-term background eastward motion (~2 cm/yr). In the last decades, these transient events were preceded by a constant amount of accumulated strain near the PFS. The time of strain accumulation varies between a few years and a few decades, also depending on magma emplacement within the nearby North East Rift, which may increase the strain along the PFS. These results suggest that the amount of deformation near the PFS may be used as a gauge to forecast the occurrence of instability transients on the eastern flank of Etna. In this context, the PFS may provide an ideal, small-scale structure to test the relations between strain accumulation, stress loading, and seismic energy release.
    Description: This work has been partially supported by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) within the SAR4Volcanoes project, agreement I/ 034/11/0.
    Description: Published
    Description: 4398-4409
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: 5T. Sorveglianza sismica e operatività post-terremoto
    Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Volcano flank instability ; Pernicana fault ; Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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