ALBERT

Description: Beyond multifractional Brownian motion: new stochastic models for geophysical modelling Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 643-655, 2013 Author(s): J. Lévy Véhel Multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) has proved to be a useful tool in various areas of geophysical modelling. Although a versatile model, mBm is of course not always an adequate one. We present in this work several other stochastic processes which could potentially be useful in geophysics. The first alternative type is that of self-regulating processes : these are models where the local regularity is a function of the amplitude, in contrast to mBm where it is tuned exogenously. We demonstrate the relevance of such models for digital elevation maps and for temperature records. We also briefly describe two other types of alternative processes, which are the counterparts of mBm and of self-regulating processes when the intensity of local jumps is considered in lieu of local regularity: multistable processes allow one to prescribe the local intensity of jumps in space/time, while this intensity is governed by the amplitude for self-stabilizing processes .

Description: Simplified PRBMs of spatial compliant multi-beam modules for planar motion Mechanical Sciences, 4, 311-318, 2013 Author(s): G. Hao PRBMs (pseudo-rigid-body models) have been becoming important engineering technologies/methods in the field of compliant mechanisms to simplify the design and analysis through the use of the knowledge body of rigid-body mechanisms coupling with springs. This article addresses the PRBMs of spatial multi-beam modules for planar motion, which are composed of three or more symmetrical wire/slender beams parallel to each other where the planar twisting DOF (degree of freedom) is assumed to be very small for specific applications/loading conditions. Simplified PRBMs are firstly proposed through replacing each beam in spatial multi-beam module with a rigid-body link plus two identical spherical joints at its two ends. The characteristics factor, bending stiffness and twisting stiffness for the spherical joint are determined. Load-displacement equations are then derived for a class of spatial multi-beam modules and general spatial multi-beam modules using the virtual work principle and kinematic relationships. Finally, nonlinear FEA (finite element analysis) is employed with comparisons with the PRBMs. The present PRBMs have shown the ability to predict the primary nonlinear constraint characteristics such as load-stiffening effect, cross-axis coupling in the two primary translational directions and buckling load.

Description: Non-extensivity and long-range correlations in the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift (Greece) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 713-724, 2013 Author(s): G. Michas, F. Vallianatos, and P. Sammonds In the present work the statistical properties of the earthquake activity in a highly seismic region, the West Corinth rift (Central Greece), are being studied by means of generalized statistical physics. By using a dataset that covers the period 2001–2008, we investigate the earthquake energy distribution and the distribution of the time intervals (interevent times) between the successive events. As has been reported previously, these distributions exhibit complex statistical properties and fractality. By using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), a well-established method for detection of long-range correlations in non-stationary signals, it is shown that long-range correlations are also present in the earthquake activity. The existence of these properties motivates us to use non-extensive statistical physics (NESP) to investigate the statistical properties of the frequency-magnitude and the interevent time distributions, along with other well-known relations in seismology, such as the gamma distribution for interevent times. The results of the analysis indicate that the statistical properties of the earthquake activity can be successfully reproduced by means of NESP and that the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift is correlated at all-time scales.

Description: Designing hybrid flexure systems and elements using Freedom and Constraint Topologies Mechanical Sciences, 4, 319-331, 2013 Author(s): J. B. Hopkins In this paper we introduce the principles necessary to synthesize hybrid flexure systems and elements. Flexure systems consist of rigid bodies that are joined together by flexure elements that elastically deform to guide the system's rigid bodies with desired degrees of freedom (DOFs). The principles introduced here for synthesizing hybrid flexure systems and elements are extensions of the Freedom and Constraint Topologies (FACT) synthesis approach. FACT utilizes a comprehensive library of geometric shapes from which designers can rapidly consider and compare a multiplicity of flexure concepts that achieve any desired set of DOFs. Prior to this paper, designers primarily used these shapes to synthesize parallel and serial flexure systems and elements. With this paper, designers may now use these same shapes to synthesize more general flexures that consist of various combinations of parallel and serial systems and elements (i.e., hybrid configurations). As such, designers can access a larger body of flexure solutions that satisfy demanding design requirements. Instructions for helping designers utilize or avoid the advantages and challenges of over-, under-, and exact-constraint are also provided. Hybrid systems and elements are analysed and designed as case studies.

Description: Magnetic field and dynamic pressure ULF fluctuations in coronal-mass-ejection-driven sheath regions Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1559-1567, 2013 Author(s): E. K. J. Kilpua, H. Hietala, H. E. J. Koskinen, D. Fontaine, and L. Turc Compressed sheath regions form ahead of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that are sufficiently faster than the preceding solar wind. The turbulent sheath regions are important drivers of magnetospheric activity, but due to their complex internal structure, relatively little is known on the distribution of the magnetic field and plasma variations in them. In this paper we investigate ultra low frequency (ULF) fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and in dynamic pressure ( P dyn ) using a superposed epoch analysis of 41 sheath regions observed during solar cycle 23. We find strongest fluctuation power near the shock and in the vicinity of the ICME leading edge. The IMF and P dyn ULF power have different profiles within the sheath; the former is enhanced in the leading part of the sheath, while the latter is increased in the trailing part of the sheath. We also find that the ICME properties affect the level and distribution of the ULF power in sheath regions. For example, sheath regions associated with strong or fast ICMEs, or those that are crossed at intermediate distances from the center, have strongest ULF power and large variation in the power throughout the sheath region. The weaker or slower ICMEs, or those that are crossed centrally, have in general considerably weaker ULF power with relatively smooth profiles. The strong and abrupt decrease of the IMF ULF power at the ICME leading edge could be used to distinguish the ICME from the preceding sheath plasma.

Description: The impact of initial spread calibration on the RELO ensemble and its application to Lagrangian dynamics Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 621-641, 2013 Author(s): M. Wei, G. Jacobs, C. Rowley, C. N. Barron, P. Hogan, P. Spence, O. M. Smedstad, P. Martin, P. Muscarella, and E. Coelho A number of real-time ocean model forecasts were carried out successfully at Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) to provide modeling support and numerical guidance to the CARTHE GLAD at-sea experiment during summer 2012. Two RELO ensembles and three single models using NCOM and HYCOM with different resolutions were carried out. A calibrated ensemble system with enhanced spread and reliability was developed to better support this experiment. The calibrated ensemble is found to outperform the un-calibrated ensemble in forecasting accuracy, skill, and reliability for all the variables and observation spaces evaluated. The metrics used in this paper include RMS error, anomaly correlation, PECA, Brier score, spread reliability, and Talagrand rank histogram. It is also found that even the un-calibrated ensemble outperforms the single forecast from the model with the same resolution. The advantages of the ensembles are further extended to the Lagrangian framework. In contrast to a single model forecast, the RELO ensemble provides not only the most likely Lagrangian trajectory for a particle in the ocean, but also an uncertainty estimate that directly reflects the complicated ocean dynamics, which is valuable for decision makers. The examples show that the calibrated ensemble with more reliability can capture trajectories in different, even opposite, directions, which would be missed by the un-calibrated ensemble. The ensembles are applied to compute the repelling and attracting Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs), and the uncertainties of the LCSs, which are hard to obtain from a single model forecast, are estimated. It is found that the spatial scales of the LCSs depend on the model resolution. The model with the highest resolution produces the finest, small-scale, LCS structures, while the model with lowest resolution generates only large-scale LCSs. The repelling and attracting LCSs are found to intersect at many locations and create complex mesoscale eddies. The fluid particles and drifters in the middle of these tangles are subject to attraction and repulsion simultaneously from these two kinds of LCSs. As a result, the movements of particles near the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) location are severely limited. This is also confirmed by the Lagrangian trajectories predicted by the ensembles.

Description: Multifractal properties of embedded convective structures in orographic precipitation: toward subgrid-scale predictability Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 605-620, 2013 Author(s): M. Nogueira, A. P. Barros, and P. M. A. Miranda Rain and cloud fields produced by fully nonlinear idealized cloud resolving numerical simulations of orographic convective precipitation display statistical multiscaling behavior, implying that multifractal diagnostics should provide a physically robust basis for the downscaling and sub-grid scale parameterizations of moist processes. Our results show that the horizontal scaling exponent function (and respective multiscaling parameters) of the simulated rainfall and cloud fields varies with atmospheric and terrain properties, particularly small-scale terrain spectra, atmospheric stability, and advective timescale. This implies that multifractal diagnostics of moist processes for these simulations are fundamentally transient, exhibiting complex nonlinear behavior depending on atmospheric conditions and terrain forcing at each location. A particularly robust behavior found here is the transition of the multifractal parameters between stable and unstable cases, which has a clear physical correspondence to the transition from stratiform to organized (banded and cellular) convective regime. This result is reinforced by a similar behavior in the horizontal spectral exponent. Finally, our results indicate that although nonlinearly coupled fields (such as rain and clouds) have different scaling exponent functions, there are robust relationships with physical underpinnings between the scaling parameters that can be explored for hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling.

Description: Cluster observation of few-hour-scale evolution of structured plasma in the inner magnetosphere Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1569-1578, 2013 Author(s): M. Yamauchi, I. Dandouras, H. Rème, R. Lundin, and L. M. Kistler Using Cluster Ion Spectrometry (CIS) data from the spacecraft-4 perigee traversals during the 2001–2006 period (nearly 500 traversals after removing those that are highly contaminated by radiation belt particles), we statistically examined the local time distribution of structured trapped ions at sub- to few-keV range as well as inbound–outbound differences of these ion signatures in intensities and energy–latitude dispersion directions. Since the Cluster orbit during this period was almost constant and approximately north–south symmetric at nearly constant local time near the perigee, inbound–outbound differences are attributed to temporal developments in a 1–2 h timescale. Three types of structured ions at sub- to few keV range that are commonly found in the inner magnetosphere are examined: – Energy–latitude dispersed structured ions at less than a few keV, – Short-lived dispersionless ion stripes at wide energy range extending 0.1–10 keV, – Short-lived low-energy ion bursts at less than a few hundred eV. The statistics revealed that the wedge-like dispersed ions are most often observed in the dawn sector (60% of traversals), and a large portion of them show significant enhancement during the traversals at all local times. The short-lived ion stripes are predominantly found near midnight, where most stripes are significantly enhanced during the traversals and are associated with substorm activities with geomagnetic AL 〈 −300 nT. The low-energy bursts are observed at all local times and under all geomagnetic conditions, with moderate peak of the occurrence rate in the afternoon sector. A large portion of them again show significant enhancement or decay during the traversals.

Description: A top-down model to generate ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 683-704, 2013 Author(s): P. R. Furey, V. K. Gupta, and B. M. Troutman We hypothesize that total hillslope water loss for a rainfall–runoff event is inversely related to a function of a lognormal random variable, based on basin- and point-scale observations taken from the 21 km 2 Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) in Mississippi, USA. A top-down approach is used to develop a new runoff generation model both to test our physical-statistical hypothesis and to provide a method of generating ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes in a basin. The model is based on the assumption that the probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio have a space–time rescaling property. We test this assumption using streamflow and rainfall data from GCEW. For over 100 rainfall–runoff events, we find that the spatial probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio can be rescaled to a new distribution that is common to all events. We interpret random within-event differences in runoff/loss ratios in the model to arise from soil moisture spatial variability. Observations of water loss during events in GCEW support this interpretation. Our model preserves water balance in a mean statistical sense and supports our hypothesis. As an example, we use the model to generate ensembles of runoff at a large number of hillslopes for a rainfall–runoff event in GCEW.

Description: A mechanism for catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation for sparse observation networks Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 705-712, 2013 Author(s): G. A. Gottwald and A. J. Majda We study catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation procedures whereby the forecast model develops severe numerical instabilities leading to a blow-up of the solution. Catastrophic filter divergence can occur in sparse observational grids with small observational noise for intermediate observation intervals and finite ensemble sizes. Using a minimal five-dimensional model, we establish that catastrophic filter divergence is a numerical instability of the underlying forecast model caused by the filtering procedure producing analyses which are not consistent with the true dynamics, and stiffness caused by the fast attraction of the inconsistent analyses towards the attractor during the forecast step.

Description: Influence of the terrestrial magnetic field geometry on the cutoff rigidity of cosmic ray particles Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1637-1643, 2013 Author(s): K. Herbst, A. Kopp, and B. Heber Studies of the propagation of charged energetic particles in the Earth's magnetic field go back to Carl Størmer. In the end, his investigations finally lead to the definition of the so-called cutoff rigidity R C ; that is, the minimum momentum per charge a particle must have in order to reach a certain geographical location. Employing Monte Carlo simulations with the PLANETOCOSMICS code we investigate the correlation between the geomagnetic field structure and the cutoff rigidity. We show that the geometry of the magnetic field has a considerable influence on the resulting cutoff rigidity distribution. Furthermore, we will present a simple geometry-based parameter, δ B , which is able to reflect the location-dependent cutoff rigidity. We show that this correlation is also visible in the temporal evolution of the Earth's magnetic field, at least over the last 100 yr. Using latitude scans with neutron monitors, changes of the relative counting rates at different positions are calculated, showing small variations for, e.g., Kiel and Moscow, while large ones occur at Mexico City as well as on the British Virgin Islands.

Description: Electron acceleration at Jupiter: input from cyclotron-resonant interaction with whistler-mode chorus waves Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1619-1630, 2013 Author(s): E. E. Woodfield, R. B. Horne, S. A. Glauert, J. D. Menietti, and Y. Y. Shprits Jupiter has the most intense radiation belts of all the outer planets. It is not yet known how electrons can be accelerated to energies of 10 MeV or more. It has been suggested that cyclotron-resonant wave-particle interactions by chorus waves could accelerate electrons to a few MeV near the orbit of Io. Here we use the chorus wave intensities observed by the Galileo spacecraft to calculate the changes in electron flux as a result of pitch angle and energy diffusion. We show that, when the bandwidth of the waves and its variation with L are taken into account, pitch angle and energy diffusion due to chorus waves is a factor of 8 larger at L -shells greater than 10 than previously shown. We have used the latitudinal wave intensity profile from Galileo data to model the time evolution of the electron flux using the British Antarctic Survey Radiation Belt (BAS) model. This profile confines intense chorus waves near the magnetic equator with a peak intensity at ∼5° latitude. Electron fluxes in the BAS model increase by an order of magnitude for energies around 3 MeV. Extending our results to L = 14 shows that cyclotron-resonant interactions with chorus waves are equally important for electron acceleration beyond L = 10. These results suggest that there is significant electron acceleration by cyclotron-resonant interactions at Jupiter contributing to the creation of Jupiter's radiation belts and also increasing the range of L -shells over which this mechanism should be considered.

Description: The coupling between the solar wind and proton fluxes at GEO Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1631-1636, 2013 Author(s): R. J. Boynton, S. A. Billings, O. A. Amariutei, and I. Moiseenko The relationship between the solar wind and the proton flux at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) is investigated using the error reduction ratio (ERR) analysis. The ERR analysis is able to search for the most appropriate inputs that control the evolution of the system. This approach is a black box method and is able to derive a mathematical model of a system from input-output data. This method is used to analyse eight energy ranges of the proton flux at GEO from 80 keV to 14.5 MeV. The inputs to the algorithm were solar wind velocity, density and pressure; the Dst index; the solar energetic proton (SEP) flux; and a function of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) tangential magnitude and clock angle. The results show that for lowest five energy channels (80 to 800 keV) the GEO proton fluxes are controlled by the solar wind velocity with a lag of two to three days. However, above 350 keV, the SEP fluxes, accounts for a significant portion of the GEO proton flux variance. For the highest three energy channels (0.74 to 14.5 MeV), the SEPs account for the majority of the ERR. The results also show an anisotropy of protons with gyrocenters inside GEO and outside GEO, where the protons inside GEO are controlled partly by the Dst index and also an IMF-clock angle function.

Description: Sub-inertial modulation of nonlinear Kelvin waves in the coastal zone Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 357-364, 2013 Author(s): D. V. Stepanov and V. V. Novotryasov Observational evidence is presented for interaction between nonlinear internal Kelvin waves at the ω t,i (where the ω t is the semidiurnal frequency and the ω i is the inertial frequency) and random oscillations of the background coastal current at the sub-inertial Ω frequency in the Japan/East Sea. Enhanced coastal currents at the sum ω + and difference ω-frequencies ω ± =ω t,i ± Ω have properties of propagating Kelvin waves, which suggests permanent energy exchange from the sub-inertial band to the mesoscale ω ± band. This interaction may be responsible for a greater-than-predicted intensification, steepening and breaking of boundary-trapped Kelvin waves. The problem of interaction between the nonlinear Kelvin wave at the frequency ω and the low-frequency narrowband noise with representative frequency Ω≪ω is investigated using the theory of nonlinear weak dispersion waves.

Description: A statistical study on O + flux in the dayside magnetosheath Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1005-1010, 2013 Author(s): R. Slapak, H. Nilsson, and L. G. Westerberg Studies on terrestrial oxygen ion (O + ) escape into the interplanetary space have considered a number of different escape paths. Recent observations however suggest a yet insufficiently investigated additional escape route for hot O + : along open magnetic field lines in the high altitude cusp and mantle. Here we present a statistical study on O + flux in the high-latitude dayside magnetosheath. The O + is generally seen relatively close to the magnetopause, consistent with observations of O + flowing primarily tangentially to the magnetopause. We estimate the total escape flux in this region to be ~ 7 × 10 24 s −1 , implying this escape route to significantly contribute to the overall total O + loss into interplanetary space.

Description: Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate Annales Geophysicae, 31, 995-1004, 2013 Author(s): Y. Wang, X. Yan, and Z. Wang In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07–0.14 °C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 °C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 °C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation.

Description: A graph-theoretic approach to sparse matrix inversion for implicit differential algebraic equations Mechanical Sciences, 4, 243-250, 2013 Author(s): H. Yoshimura In this paper, we propose an efficient numerical scheme to compute sparse matrix inversions for Implicit Differential Algebraic Equations of large-scale nonlinear mechanical systems. We first formulate mechanical systems with constraints by Dirac structures and associated Lagrangian systems. Second, we show how to allocate input-output relations to the variables in kinematical and dynamical relations appearing in DAEs by introducing an oriented bipartite graph. Then, we also show that the matrix inversion of Jacobian matrix associated to the kinematical and dynamical relations can be carried out by using the input-output relations and we explain solvability of the sparse Jacobian matrix inversion by using the bipartite graph. Finally, we propose an efficient symbolic generation algorithm to compute the sparse matrix inversion of the Jacobian matrix, and we demonstrate the validity in numerical efficiency by an example of the stanford manipulator.

Description: IMF effect on the polar cap contraction and expansion during a period of substorms Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1021-1034, 2013 Author(s): A. T. Aikio, T. Pitkänen, I. Honkonen, M. Palmroth, and O. Amm The polar cap boundary (PCB) location and motion in the nightside ionosphere has been studied by using measurements from the EISCAT radars and the MIRACLE magnetometers during a period of four substorms on 18 February 2004. The OMNI database has been used for observations of the solar wind and the Geotail satellite for magnetospheric measurements. In addition, the event was modelled by the GUMICS-4 MHD simulation. The simulation of the PCB location was in a rather good agreement with the experimental estimates at the EISCAT longitude. During the first three substorm expansion phases, neither the local observations nor the global simulation showed any poleward motions of the PCB, even though the electrojets intensified. Rapid poleward motions of the PCB took place only in the early recovery phases of the substorms. Hence, in these cases the nightside reconnection rate was locally higher in the recovery phase than in the expansion phase. In addition, we suggest that the IMF B z component correlated with the nightside tail inclination angle and the PCB location with about a 17-min delay from the bow shock. By taking the delay into account, the IMF northward turnings were associated with dipolarizations of the magnetotail and poleward motions of the PCB in the recovery phase. The mechanism behind this effect should be studied further.

Description: A comparison of bow shock models with Cluster observations during low Alfvén Mach number magnetic clouds Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1011-1019, 2013 Author(s): L. Turc, D. Fontaine, P. Savoini, H. Hietala, and E. K. J. Kilpua Magnetic clouds (MCs) are very geoeffective solar wind structures. Their properties in the interplanetary medium have been extensively studied, yet little is known about their characteristics in the Earth's magnetosheath. The Cluster spacecraft offer the opportunity to observe MCs in the magnetosheath, but before MCs reach the magnetosphere, their structure is altered when they interact with the terrestrial bow shock (BS). The physics taking place at the BS strongly depends on Θ Bn , the angle between the shock normal and the interplanetary magnetic field. However, in situ observations of the BS during an MC's crossing are seldom available. In order to relate magnetosheath observations to solar wind conditions, we need to rely on a model to determine the shock's position and normal direction. Yet during MCs, the models tend to be less accurate, because the Alfvén Mach number ( M A ) is often significantly lower than in regular solar wind. On the contrary, the models are generally optimised for high M A conditions. In this study, we compare the predictions of four widely used models available in the literature (Wu et al., 2000; Chapman and Cairns, 2003; Jeřáb et al., 2005; Měrka et al., 2005b) to Cluster's dayside BS crossings observed during five MC events. Our analysis shows that the Θ Bn angle is well predicted by all four models. On the other hand, the Jeřáb et al. (2005) model yields the best estimates of the BS position during low M A MCs. The other models locate the BS either too far from or too close to Earth. The results of this paper can be directly used to estimate the BS parameters in all studies of MC interaction with Earth's magnetosphere.

Description: Investigation of radiative effects of the optically thick dust layer over the Indian tropical region Annales Geophysicae, 31, 647-663, 2013 Author(s): S. K. Das, J.-P. Chen, M. Venkat Ratnam, and A. Jayaraman Optical and physical properties of aerosols derived from multi-satellite observations (MODIS-Aqua, OMI-Aura, MISR-Terra, CALIOP-CALIPSO) have been used to estimate radiative effects of the dust layer over southern India. The vertical distribution of aerosol radiative forcing and heating rates are calculated with 100 m resolution in the lower atmosphere, using temperature and relative humidity data from balloon-borne radiosonde observations. The present study investigates the optically thick dust layer of optical thickness 0.18 ± 0.06 at an altitude of 2.5 ± 0.7 km over Gadanki, transported from the Thar Desert, producing radiative forcing and heating rate of 11.5 ± 3.3 W m −2 and 0.6 ± 0.26 K day −1 , respectively, with a forcing efficiency of 43 W m −2 and an effective heating rate of 4 K day −1 per unit dust optical depth. Presence of the dust layer increases radiative forcing by 60% and heating rate by 60 times at that altitude compared to non-dusty cloud-free days. Calculation shows that the radiative effects of the dust layer strongly depend on the boundary layer aerosol type and mass loading. An increase of 25% of heating by the dust layer is found over relatively cleaner regions than urban regions in southern India and further 15% of heating increases over the marine region. Such heating differences in free troposphere may have significant consequences in the atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle over the tropical Indian region.

Description: Application of wavelet transform for evaluation of hydrocarbon reservoirs: example from Iranian oil fields in the north of the Persian Gulf Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 231-238, 2013 Author(s): M. R. Saadatinejad and H. Hassani The Persian Gulf and its surrounding area are some of the biggest basins and have a very important role in producing huge amounts of hydrocarbon, and this potential was evaluated in order to explore the target for geoscientists and petroleum engineers. Wavelet transform is a useful and applicable technique to reveal frequency contents of various signals in different branches of science and especially in petroleum studies. We applied two major capacities of continuous mode of wavelet transform in seismic investigations. These investigations were operated to detect reservoir geological structures and some anomalies related to hydrocarbon to develop and explore new petroleum reservoirs in at least 4 oilfields in the southwest of Iran. It had been observed that continuous wavelet transform results show some discontinuities in the location of faults and are able to display them more clearly than other seismic methods. Moreover, continuous wavelet transform, utilizing Morlet wavelet, displays low-frequency shadows on 4 different iso-frequency vertical sections to identify reservoirs containing gas. By comparing these different figures, the presence of low-frequency shadows under the reservoir could be seen and we can relate these variations from anomalies at different frequencies as an indicator of the presence of hydrocarbons in the target reservoir.

Description: Low level jet intensification by mineral dust aerosols Annales Geophysicae, 31, 625-632, 2013 Author(s): O. Alizadeh Choobari, P. Zawar-Reza, and A. Sturman Modification of the intensity of a low level jet (LLJ) and near-surface wind speed by mineral dust is important as it has implications for dust emission and its long-range transport. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) regional model, it is shown that direct radiative forcing by mineral dust reduces temperature in the lower atmosphere, but increases it in the layers aloft. The surface cooling is shown to be associated with a reduction of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and hence vertical mixing of horizontal momentum. Changes in the vertical profile of temperature over the regions that are under the influence of a LLJ are shown to result in an intensification of the LLJ and near-surface wind speed, but a decrease of winds aloft. These changes in the wind speed profile differ from results of previous research which suggested a decrease of wind speed in the lower atmosphere and its increase in the upper boundary layer.

Description: Parametric validations of analytical lifetime estimates for radiation belt electron diffusion by whistler waves Annales Geophysicae, 31, 599-624, 2013 Author(s): A. V. Artemyev, D. Mourenas, O. V. Agapitov, and V. V. Krasnoselskikh The lifetimes of electrons trapped in Earth's radiation belts can be calculated from quasi-linear pitch-angle diffusion by whistler-mode waves, provided that their frequency spectrum is broad enough and/or their average amplitude is not too large. Extensive comparisons between improved analytical lifetime estimates and full numerical calculations have been performed in a broad parameter range representative of a large part of the magnetosphere from L ~ 2 to 6. The effects of observed very oblique whistler waves are taken into account in both numerical and analytical calculations. Analytical lifetimes (and pitch-angle diffusion coefficients) are found to be in good agreement with full numerical calculations based on CRRES and Cluster hiss and lightning-generated wave measurements inside the plasmasphere and Cluster lower-band chorus waves measurements in the outer belt for electron energies ranging from 100 keV to 5 MeV. Comparisons with lifetimes recently obtained from electron flux measurements on SAMPEX, SCATHA, SAC-C and DEMETER also show reasonable agreement.

Description: Coherent amplitude modulation of electron-beam-driven Langmuir waves Annales Geophysicae, 31, 633-638, 2013 Author(s): K. Baumgärtel A linear approach to the phenomenon of irregular amplitude modulation of beam-driven Langmuir waves, developed in a previous paper, is extended to explain periodic modulation as well. It comes about by beating of the fastest growing mode of the instability with beam-aligned plasma oscillations. They are naturally generated in a uniform domain of beam–plasma interaction prior to the onset of the instability. Particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations support the results of the linear analysis.

Description: Seasonal variation of the ion upflow in the topside ionosphere during SAPS (subauroral polarization stream) periods Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1521-1534, 2013 Author(s): H. Wang and H. Lühr A statistical study has been performed by using two years of DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) plasma observations to investigate the seasonal effect of SAPS (subauroral polarization stream) on the ion upflow in the duskside ionosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. There are obvious upflows occurring in the topside ionosphere around the SAPS region, exceeding 200 m s −1 at winter solstice, indicating an important relationship between SAPS and the local plasma upward motion. Both SAPS and ion upward velocities show similar seasonal variations, largest in winter and smallest in summer, irrespective of geomagnetic activity. A good correlation is found and a linear relationship is derived between SAPS and the ion upflow velocities. During December solstice the average upflow flux can reach about 2 × 10 8 cm −2 s −1 for more disturbed periods, which is comparable to the typical upflow flux in the dayside cusp region. The depression of the ion temperatures around the peak SAPS region can be understood in terms of the adiabatic cooling. The hot ion cools down when expanding into the low ion concentration region. The electron temperature elevates around the SAPS region because of the reduced Coulomb cooling in the low ion density region. Both the changes of ion and electron temperatures are larger in winter than in summer, however, for Kp 〈 4 the electron temperatures are almost seasonably independent. The present work highlights the important role of the SAPS-related frictional heating at mid-latitudes on the local formation of the strong upward flow, which might provide a direct ionospheric ion source for the ring current and plasmasphere in the duskside sector.

Description: Magnetic field generation in a jet-sheath plasma via the kinetic Kelvin-Helmholtz instability Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1535-1541, 2013 Author(s): K.-I. Nishikawa, P. Hardee, B. Zhang, I. Duţan, M. Medvedev, E. J. Choi, K. W. Min, J. Niemiec, Y. Mizuno, A. Nordlund, J. T. Frederiksen, H. Sol, M. Pohl, and D. H. Hartmann We have investigated the generation of magnetic fields associated with velocity shear between an unmagnetized relativistic jet and an unmagnetized sheath plasma. We have examined the strong magnetic fields generated by kinetic shear (Kelvin–Helmholtz) instabilities. Compared to the previous studies using counter-streaming performed by Alves et al. (2012), the structure of the kinetic Kelvin–Helmholtz instability (KKHI) of our jet-sheath configuration is slightly different, even for the global evolution of the strong transverse magnetic field. In our simulations the major components of growing modes are the electric field E z , perpendicular to the flow boundary, and the magnetic field B y , transverse to the flow direction. After the B y component is excited, an induced electric field E x , parallel to the flow direction, becomes significant. However, other field components remain small. We find that the structure and growth rate of KKHI with mass ratios m i / m e = 1836 and m i / m e = 20 are similar. In our simulations saturation in the nonlinear stage is not as clear as in counter-streaming cases. The growth rate for a mildly-relativistic jet case (γ j = 1.5) is larger than for a relativistic jet case (γ j = 15).

Description: Ionospheric response to total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 in different Indian regions Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1549-1558, 2013 Author(s): S. Kumar, A. K. Singh, and R. P. Singh The variability of ionospheric response to the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 has been studied analyzing the GPS data recorded at the four Indian low-latitude stations Varanasi (100% obscuration), Kanpur (95% obscuration), Hyderabad (84% obscuration) and Bangalore (72% obscuration). The retrieved ionospheric vertical total electron content (VTEC) shows a significant reduction (reflected by all PRNs (satellites) at all stations) with a maximum of 48% at Varanasi (PRN 14), which decreases to 30% at Bangalore (PRN 14). Data from PRN 31 show a maximum of 54% at Kanpur and 26% at Hyderabad. The maximum decrement in VTEC occurs some time (2–15 min) after the maximum obscuration. The reduction in VTEC compared to the quiet mean VTEC depends on latitude as well as longitude, which also depends on the location of the satellite with respect to the solar eclipse path. The amount of reduction in VTEC decreases as the present obscuration decreases, which is directly related to the electron production by the photoionization process. The analysis of electron density height profile derived from the COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere & Climate) satellite over the Indian region shows significant reduction from 100 km altitude up to 800 km altitude with a maximum of 48% at 360 km altitude. The oscillatory nature in total electron content data at all stations is observed with different wave periods lying between 40 and 120 min, which are attributed to gravity wave effects generated in the lower atmosphere during the total solar eclipse.

Description: Distributed allocation of mobile sensing swarms in gyre flows Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 657-668, 2013 Author(s): K. Mallory, M. A. Hsieh, E. Forgoston, and I. B. Schwartz We address the synthesis of distributed control policies to enable a swarm of homogeneous mobile sensors to maintain a desired spatial distribution in a geophysical flow environment, or workspace. In this article, we assume the mobile sensors (or robots) have a "map" of the environment denoting the locations of the Lagrangian coherent structures or LCS boundaries. Using this information, we design agent-level hybrid control policies that leverage the surrounding fluid dynamics and inherent environmental noise to enable the team to maintain a desired distribution in the workspace. We discuss the stability properties of the ensemble dynamics of the distributed control policies. Since realistic quasi-geostrophic ocean models predict double-gyre flow solutions, we use a wind-driven multi-gyre flow model to verify the feasibility of the proposed distributed control strategy and compare the proposed control strategy with a baseline deterministic allocation strategy. Lastly, we validate the control strategy using actual flow data obtained by our coherent structure experimental testbed.

Description: Four-dimensional ensemble-variational data assimilation for global deterministic weather prediction Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 669-682, 2013 Author(s): M. Buehner, J. Morneau, and C. Charette The goal of this study is to evaluate a version of the ensemble-variational data assimilation approach (EnVar) for possible replacement of 4D-Var at Environment Canada for global deterministic weather prediction. This implementation of EnVar relies on 4-D ensemble covariances, obtained from an ensemble Kalman filter, that are combined in a vertically dependent weighted average with simple static covariances. Verification results are presented from a set of data assimilation experiments over two separate 6-week periods that used assimilated observations and model configuration very similar to the currently operational system. To help interpret the comparison of EnVar versus 4D-Var, additional experiments using 3D-Var and a version of EnVar with only 3-D ensemble covariances are also evaluated. To improve the rate of convergence for all approaches evaluated (including EnVar), an estimate of the cost function Hessian generated by the quasi-Newton minimization algorithm is cycled from one analysis to the next. Analyses from EnVar (with 4-D ensemble covariances) nearly always produce improved, and never degraded, forecasts when compared with 3D-Var. Comparisons with 4D-Var show that forecasts from EnVar analyses have either similar or better scores in the troposphere of the tropics and the winter extra-tropical region. However, in the summer extra-tropical region the medium-range forecasts from EnVar have either similar or worse scores than 4D-Var in the troposphere. In contrast, the 6 h forecasts from EnVar are significantly better than 4D-Var relative to radiosonde observations for both periods and in all regions. The use of 4-D versus 3-D ensemble covariances only results in small improvements in forecast quality. By contrast, the improvements from using 4D-Var versus 3D-Var are much larger. Measurement of the fit of the background and analyzed states to the observations suggests that EnVar and 4D-Var can both make better use of observations distributed over time than 3D-Var. In summary, the results from this study suggest that the EnVar approach is a viable alternative to 4D-Var, especially when the simplicity and computational efficiency of EnVar are considered. Additional research is required to understand the seasonal dependence of the difference in forecast quality between EnVar and 4D-Var in the extra-tropics.

Description: Application of nonlinear autoregressive moving average exogenous input models to geospace: advances in understanding and space weather forecasts Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1579-1589, 2013 Author(s): R. J. Boynton, M. A. Balikhin, S. A. Billings, and O. A. Amariutei The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) system identification technique is applied to various aspects of the magnetospheres dynamics. It is shown, from an example system, how the inputs to a system can be found from the error reduction ratio (ERR) analysis, a key concept of the NARMAX approach. The application of the NARMAX approach to the Dst (disturbance storm time) index and the electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) are reviewed, revealing new insight into the physics of the system. The review of studies into the Dst index illustrate how the NARMAX approach is able to find a coupling function for the Dst index from data, which was then analytically justified from first principles. While the review of the electron flux demonstrates how NARMAX is able to reveal new insight into the physics of the acceleration and loss processes within the radiation belt.

Description: Comprehensive analysis of tornado statistics in comparison to earthquakes: intensity and temporal behaviour Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 47-57, 2013 Author(s): L. Schielicke and P. Névir Tornadoes and earthquakes are characterised by a high variability in their properties concerning intensity, geometric properties and temporal behaviour. Earthquakes are known for power-law behaviour in their intensity (Gutenberg–Richter law) and temporal statistics (e.g. Omori law and interevent waiting times). The observed similarity of high variability of these two phenomena motivated us to compare the statistical behaviour of tornadoes using seismological methods and quest for power-law behaviour. In general, the statistics of tornadoes show power-law behaviour partly coextensive with characteristic scales when the temporal resolution is high (10 to 60 min). These characteristic scales match with the typical diurnal behaviour of tornadoes, which is characterised by a maximum of tornado occurrences in the late afternoon hours. Furthermore, the distributions support the observation that tornadoes cluster in time. Finally, we shortly discuss a possible similar underlying structure composed of heterogeneous, coupled, interactive threshold oscillators that possibly explains the observed behaviour.

Description: Quantifying soil complexity using network models of soil porous structure Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 41-45, 2013 Author(s): M. Samec, A. Santiago, J. P. Cárdenas, R. M. Benito, A. M. Tarquis, S. J. Mooney, and D. Korošak This paper describes an investigation into the properties of spatially embedded complex networks representing the porous architecture of soil systems. We suggest an approach to quantify the complexity of soil pore structure based on the node-node link correlation properties of the networks. We show that the complexity depends on the strength of spatial embedding of the network and that this is related to the transition from a non-compact to compact phase of the network.

Description: Analysis of asymmetries in propagating mode-2 waves Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 59-69, 2013 Author(s): J. Olsthoorn, A. Baglaenko, and M. Stastna Using numerical simulations performed with a pseudo-spectral incompressible Navier–Stokes solver, we describe the asymmetries that arise in the recirculating core of mode-2 internal, solitary-like waves. The waves are generated in a manner consistent with many laboratory studies, namely via the collapse of a region of mixed fluid. Analysis of the simulations reveals that asymmetries across both the wave crest and the pycnocline centre develop in the spatial distribution of density, kinetic energy and a passive tracer transported by the mode-2 waves. The simulations are extended to three-dimensions to allow for the formation of spanwise instabilities. We find that three-dimensionalization modifies the structure and energetics of the core, but that the majority of the results obtained from two dimensional simulations remain valid. Taken together, our simulations demonstrate that the cores of solitary-like mode-2 waves are different then their counterparts for mode-1 waves and that their accurate characterization on both lab and field scales should account for the core asymmetry across the pycnocline centre.

Description: Earthquake dynamic response of large flexible multibody systems Mechanical Sciences, 4, 131-137, 2013 Author(s): E. V. Zahariev In the paper dynamics of large flexible structures imposed on earthquakes and high amplitude vibrations is regarded. Precise dynamic equations of flexible systems are the basis for reliable motion simulation and analysis of loading of the design scheme elements. Generalized Newton–Euler dynamic equations for rigid and flexible bodies are applied. The basement compulsory motion realized because of earthquake or wave propagation is presented in the dynamic equations as reonomic constraints. The dynamic equations, algebraic equations and reonomic constraints compile a system of differential algebraic equations which are transformed to a system of ordinary differential equations with respect to the generalized coordinates and the reactions due to the reonomic constraints. Examples of large flexible structures and wind power generator dynamic analysis are presented.

Description: Support vector machines for TEC seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection Annales Geophysicae, 31, 173-186, 2013 Author(s): M. Akhoondzadeh Using time series prediction methods, it is possible to pursue the behaviors of earthquake precursors in the future and to announce early warnings when the differences between the predicted value and the observed value exceed the predefined threshold value. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are widely used due to their many advantages for classification and regression tasks. This study is concerned with investigating the Total Electron Content (TEC) time series by using a SVM to detect seismo-ionospheric anomalous variations induced by the three powerful earthquakes of Tohoku (11 March 2011), Haiti (12 January 2010) and Samoa (29 September 2009). The duration of TEC time series dataset is 49, 46 and 71 days, for Tohoku, Haiti and Samoa earthquakes, respectively, with each at time resolution of 2 h. In the case of Tohoku earthquake, the results show that the difference between the predicted value obtained from the SVM method and the observed value reaches the maximum value (i.e., 129.31 TECU) at earthquake time in a period of high geomagnetic activities. The SVM method detected a considerable number of anomalous occurrences 1 and 2 days prior to the Haiti earthquake and also 1 and 5 days before the Samoa earthquake in a period of low geomagnetic activities. In order to show that the method is acting sensibly with regard to the results extracted during nonevent and event TEC data, i.e., to perform some null-hypothesis tests in which the methods would also be calibrated, the same period of data from the previous year of the Samoa earthquake date has been taken into the account. Further to this, in this study, the detected TEC anomalies using the SVM method were compared to the previous results (Akhoondzadeh and Saradjian, 2011; Akhoondzadeh, 2012) obtained from the mean, median, wavelet and Kalman filter methods. The SVM detected anomalies are similar to those detected using the previous methods. It can be concluded that SVM can be a suitable learning method to detect the novelty changes of a nonlinear time series such as variations of earthquake precursors.

Description: Analysis of servo-constraint problems for underactuated multibody systems Mechanical Sciences, 4, 113-129, 2013 Author(s): R. Seifried and W. Blajer Underactuated multibody systems have fewer control inputs than degrees of freedom. In trajectory tracking control of such systems an accurate and efficient feedforward control is often necessary. For multibody systems feedforward control by model inversion can be designed using servo-constraints. So far servo-constraints have been mostly applied to differentially flat underactuated mechanical systems. Differentially flat systems can be inverted purely by algebraic manipulations and using a finite number of differentiations of the desired output trajectory. However, such algebraic solutions are often hard to find and therefore the servo-constraint approach provides an efficient and practical solution method. Recently first results on servo-constraint problems of non-flat underactuated multibody systems have been reported. Hereby additional dynamics arise, so-called internal dynamics, yielding a dynamical system as inverse model. In this paper the servo-constraint problem is analyzed for both, differentially flat and non-flat systems. Different arising important phenomena are demonstrated using two illustrative examples. Also strategies for the numerical solution of servo-constraint problems are discussed.

Description: Ion motion in the current sheet with sheared magnetic field – Part 1: Quasi-adiabatic theory Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 163-178, 2013 Author(s): A. V. Artemyev, A. I. Neishtadt, and L. M. Zelenyi We present a theory of trapped ion motion in the magnetotail current sheet with a constant dawn–dusk component of the magnetic field. Particle trajectories are described analytically using the quasi-adiabatic invariant corresponding to averaging of fast oscillations around the tangential component of the magnetic field. We consider particle dynamics in the quasi-adiabatic approximation and demonstrate that the principal role is played by large (so called geometrical) jumps of the quasi-adiabatic invariant. These jumps appear due to the current sheet asymmetry related to the presence of the dawn–dusk magnetic field. The analytical description is compared with results of numerical integration. We show that there are four possible regimes of particle motion. Each regime is characterized by certain ranges of values of the dawn–dusk magnetic field and particle energy. We find the critical value of the dawn–dusk magnetic field, where jumps of the quasi-adiabatic invariant vanish.

Description: Magnetosheath dynamic pressure enhancements: occurrence and typical properties Annales Geophysicae, 31, 319-331, 2013 Author(s): M. O. Archer and T. S. Horbury The first comprehensive statistical study of large-amplitude (〉 100%) transient enhancements of the magnetosheath dynamic pressure reveals events of up to ~ 15 times the ambient dynamic pressure with durations up to 3 min and an average duration of around 30 s, predominantly downstream of the quasi-parallel shock. The dynamic pressure transients are most often dominated by velocity increases along with a small fractional increase in the density, though the velocity is generally only deflected by a few degrees. Superposed wavelet transforms of the magnetic field show that, whilst most enhancements exhibit changes in the magnetosheath magnetic field, the majority are not associated with changes in the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). However, there is a minority of enhancements that do appear to be associated with solar wind discontinuities which cannot be explained simply by random events. In general, it is found that during periods of magnetosheath dynamic pressure enhancements the IMF is steadier than usual. This suggests that a stable foreshock and hence foreshock structures or processes may be important in the generation of the majority of magnetosheath dynamic pressure enhancements.

Description: A typical wave wake from high-speed vessels: its group structure and run-up Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 179-188, 2013 Author(s): I. Didenkulova and A. Rodin High-amplitude water waves induced by high-speed vessels are regularly observed in Tallinn Bay, the Baltic Sea, causing intense beach erosion and disturbing marine habitants in the coastal zone. Such a strong impact on the coast may be a result of a certain group structure of the wave wake. In order to understand it, here we present an experimental study of the group structure of these wakes at Pikakari beach, Tallinn Bay. The most energetic vessel waves at this location (100 m from the coast at the water depth 2.7 m) have amplitudes of about 1 m and periods of 8–10 s and cause maximum run-up heights on a beach up to 1.4 m. These waves represent frequency modulated packets where the largest and longest waves propagate ahead of other smaller amplitude and period waves. Sometimes the groups of different heights and periods can be separated even within one wave wake event. The wave heights within a wake are well described by the Weibull distribution, which has different parameters for wakes from different vessels. Wave run-up heights can also be described by Weibull distribution and its parameters can be connected to the parameters of the distribution of wave heights 100 m from the coast. Finally, the run-up of individual waves within a packet is studied. It is shown that the specific structure of frequency modulated wave packets, induced by high-speed vessels, leads to a sequence of high wave run-ups at the coast, even when the original wave heights are rather moderate. This feature can be a key to understanding the significant impact on coasts caused by fast vessels.

Description: Response of polar mesosphere summer echoes to geomagnetic disturbances in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres: the importance of nitric oxide Annales Geophysicae, 31, 333-347, 2013 Author(s): S. Kirkwood, E. Belova, P. Dalin, M. Mihalikova, D. Mikhaylova, D. Murtagh, H. Nilsson, K. Satheesan, J. Urban, and I. Wolf The relationship between polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE) and geomagnetic disturbances (represented by magnetic K indices) is examined. Calibrated PMSE reflectivities for the period May 2006–February 2012 are used from two 52.0/54.5 MHz radars located in Arctic Sweden (68° N, geomagnetic latitude 65°) and at two different sites in Queen Maud Land, Antarctica (73°/72° S, geomagnetic latitudes 62°/63°). In both the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) there is a strong increase in mean PMSE reflectivity between quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Mean volume reflectivities are slightly lower at the SH locations compared to the NH, but the position of the peak in the lognormal distribution of PMSE reflectivities is close to the same at both NH and SH locations, and varies only slightly with magnetic disturbance level. Differences between the sites, and between geomagnetic disturbance levels, are primarily due to differences in the high-reflectivity tail of the distribution. PMSE occurrence rates are essentially the same at both NH and SH locations during most of the PMSE season when a sufficiently low detection threshold is used so that the peak in the lognormal distribution is included. When the local-time dependence of the PMSE response to geomagnetic disturbance level is considered, the response in the NH is found to be immediate at most local times, but delayed by several hours in the afternoon sector and absent in the early evening. At the SH sites, at lower magnetic latitude, there is a delayed response (by several hours) at almost all local times. At the NH (auroral zone) site, the dependence on magnetic disturbance is highest during evening-to-morning hours. At the SH (sub-auroral) sites the response to magnetic disturbance is weaker but persists throughout the day. While the immediate response to magnetic activity can be qualitatively explained by changes in electron density resulting from energetic particle precipitation, the delayed response can largely be explained by changes in nitric oxide concentrations. Observations of nitric oxide concentration at PMSE heights by the Odin satellite support this hypothesis. Sensitivity to geomagnetic disturbances, including nitric oxide produced during these disturbances, can explain previously reported differences between sites in the auroral zone and those at higher or lower magnetic latitudes. The several-day lifetime of nitric oxide can also explain earlier reported discrepancies between high correlations for average conditions (year-by-year PMSE reflectivities and K indices) and low correlations for minute-to-day timescales.

Description: Observations of poleward-propagating large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances in southern China Annales Geophysicae, 31, 377-385, 2013 Author(s): F. Ding, W. Wan, B. Ning, B. Zhao, Q. Li, Y. Wang, L. Hu, R. Zhang, and B. Xiong We report here on two cases of poleward-propagating large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs) in China during a medium-scale storm between 27 May and 1 June 2011. The observations were conducted by making use of the Global Positioning System network and ionosondes in China and Southeast Asia. One northeastward-propagating LSTID occurred on the morning of 30 May, while the other was observed during the nighttime of 1 June. Both poleward-traveling LSTIDs occurred during the storm's recovery phase in southern China's low-latitude region (geomagnetic latitude ~ 7.3–24° N) and experienced severe dissipation during their propagation from south to north. Although the initial relative amplitude of the nighttime LSTID was ~ 60% larger than that of the morning event, the nighttime event dissipated more quickly than the morning event because of a strong nighttime enhancement in background total electronic content (TEC) during storm time, which led to strong ion-drag dissipation during the evening. The poleward-propagating LSTIDs exhibit a narrower latitudinal range, a smaller amplitude, and a slightly higher elevation compared with the equatorward-moving LSTIDs observed in the same region. Given these features, the poleward-propagating LSTIDs were likely excited by some local source near southern China. Excitation of secondary LSTIDs during the dissipation of some primary medium-scale disturbances from the lower atmosphere is a possible mechanism.

Description: A new method for solving the MHD equations in the magnetosheath Annales Geophysicae, 31, 419-437, 2013 Author(s): C. Nabert, K.-H. Glassmeier, and F. Plaschke We present a new analytical method to derive steady-state magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solutions of the magnetosheath in different levels of approximation. With this method, we calculate the magnetosheath's density, velocity, and magnetic field distribution as well as its geometry. Thereby, the solution depends on the geomagnetic dipole moment and solar wind conditions only. To simplify the representation, we restrict our model to northward IMF with the solar wind flow along the stagnation streamline. The sheath's geometry, with its boundaries, bow shock and magnetopause, is determined self-consistently. Our model is stationary and time relaxation has not to be considered as in global MHD simulations. Our method uses series expansion to transfer the MHD equations into a new set of ordinary differential equations. The number of equations is related to the level of approximation considered including different physical processes. These equations can be solved numerically; however, an analytical approach for the lowest-order approximation is also presented. This yields explicit expressions, not only for the flow and field variations but also for the magnetosheath thickness, depending on the solar wind parameters. Results are compared to THEMIS data and offer a detailed explanation of, e.g., the pile-up process and the corresponding plasma depletion layer, the bow shock and magnetopause geometry, the magnetosheath thickness, and the flow deceleration.

Description: Investigation of a mesospheric bore event over northern China Annales Geophysicae, 31, 409-418, 2013 Author(s): Q. Li, J. Xu, J. Yue, X. Liu, W. Yuan, B. Ning, S. Guan, and J. P. Younger A mesospheric bore event was observed using an OH all-sky airglow imager (ASAI) at Xinglong (40.2° N, 117.4° E), in northern China, on the night of 8–9 January 2011. Simultaneous observations by a Doppler meteor radar, a broadband sodium lidar, and TIMED/SABER OH intensity and temperature measurements are used to investigate the characteristics and environment of the bore propagation and the possible relations with the Na density perturbations. The bore propagated from northeast to southwest and divided the sky into bright and dark halves. The calculations show that the bore has an average phase velocity of 68 m s −1 . The crests following the bore have a horizontal wavelength of ~ 22 km. These parameters are consistent with the hydraulic jump theory proposed by Dewan and Picard, as well as the previous bore reports. Simultaneous wind measurements from the Doppler meteor radar at Shisanling (40.3° N, 116.2° E) and temperature data from SABER on board the TIMED satellite are used to characterize the propagating environment of the bore. The result shows that a thermal-Doppler duct exists near the OH layer that supports the horizontal propagation of the bore. Simultaneous Na lidar observations at Yanqing (40.4° N, 116.0° E) suggest that there is a downward displacement of Na density during the passage of the mesospheric bore event.

Description: The ultra-fast Kelvin waves in the equatorial ionosphere: observations and modeling Annales Geophysicae, 31, 209-215, 2013 Author(s): A. N. Onohara, I. S. Batista, and H. Takahashi The main purpose of this study is to investigate the vertical coupling between the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region and the ionosphere through ultra-fast Kelvin (UFK) waves in the equatorial atmosphere. The effect of UFK waves on the ionospheric parameters was estimated using an ionospheric model which calculates electrostatic potential in the E-region and solves coupled electrodynamics of the equatorial ionosphere in the E- and F-regions. The UFK wave was observed in the South American equatorial region during February–March 2005. The MLT wind data obtained by meteor radar at São João do Cariri (7.5° S, 37.5° W) and ionospheric F-layer bottom height ( h 'F) observed by ionosonde at Fortaleza (3.9° S; 38.4° W) were used in order to calculate the wave characteristics and amplitude of oscillation. The simulation results showed that the combined electrodynamical effect of tides and UFK waves in the MLT region could explain the oscillations observed in the ionospheric parameters.

Description: Payload charging events in the mesosphere and their impact on Langmuir type electric probes Annales Geophysicae, 31, 187-196, 2013 Author(s): T. A. Bekkeng, A. Barjatya, U.-P. Hoppe, A. Pedersen, J. I. Moen, M. Friedrich, and M. Rapp Three sounding rockets were launched from Andøya Rocket Range in the ECOMA campaign in December 2010. The aim was to study the evolution of meteoric smoke particles during a major meteor shower. Of the various instruments onboard the rocket payload, this paper presents the data from a multi-Needle Langmuir Probe (m-NLP) and a charged dust detector. The payload floating potential, as observed using the m-NLP instrument, shows charging events on two of the three flights. These charging events cannot be explained using a simple charging model, and have implications towards the use of fixed bias Langmuir probes on sounding rockets investigating mesospheric altitudes. We show that for a reliable use of a single fixed bias Langmuir probe as a high spatial resolution relative density measurement, each payload should also carry an additional instrument to measure payload floating potential, and an instrument that is immune to spacecraft charging and measures absolute plasma density.

Description: Sub-modeling approach for obtaining structural stress histories during dynamic analysis Mechanical Sciences, 4, 21-31, 2013 Author(s): T. T. Rantalainen, A. M. Mikkola, and T. J. Björk Modern machine structures are often fabricated by welding. From a fatigue point of view, the structural details and especially, the welded details are the most prone to fatigue damage and failure. Design against fatigue requires information on the fatigue resistance of a structure's critical details and the stress loads that act on each detail. Even though, dynamic simulation of flexible bodies is already current method for analyzing structures, obtaining the stress history of a structural detail during dynamic simulation is a challenging task; especially when the detail has a complex geometry. In particular, analyzing the stress history of every structural detail within a single finite element model can be overwhelming since the amount of nodal degrees of freedom needed in the model may require an impractical amount of computational effort. The purpose of computer simulation is to reduce amount of prototypes and speed up the product development process. Also, to take operator influence into account, real time models, i.e. simplified and computationally efficient models are required. This in turn, requires stress computation to be efficient if it will be performed during dynamic simulation. The research looks back at the theoretical background of multibody simulation and finite element method to find suitable parts to form a new approach for efficient stress calculation. This study proposes that, the problem of stress calculation during dynamic simulation can be greatly simplified by using a combination of Floating Frame of Reference Formulation with modal superposition and a sub-modeling approach. In practice, the proposed approach can be used to efficiently generate the relevant fatigue assessment stress history for a structural detail during or after dynamic simulation. Proposed approach is demonstrated in practice using one numerical example. Even though, examples are simplified the results show that approach is applicable and can be used as proposed.

Description: Flexible joints in structural and multibody dynamics Mechanical Sciences, 4, 65-77, 2013 Author(s): O. A. Bauchau and S. Han Flexible joints, sometimes called bushing elements or force elements, are found in all structural and multibody dynamics codes. In their simplest form, flexible joints simply consist of sets of three linear and three torsional springs placed between two nodes of the model. For infinitesimal deformations, the selection of the lumped spring constants is an easy task, which can be based on a numerical simulation of the joint or on experimental measurements. If the joint undergoes finite deformations, identification of its stiffness characteristics is not so simple, specially if the joint is itself a complex system. When finite deformations occur, the definition of deformation measures becomes a critical issue. This paper proposes a family of tensorial deformation measures suitable for elastic bodies of finite dimension. These families are generated by two parameters that can be used to modify the constitutive behavior of the joint, while maintaining the tensorial nature of the deformation measures. Numerical results demonstrate the objectivity of the deformations measures, a feature that is not shared by the deformations measures presently used in the literature. The impact of the choice of the two parameters on the constitutive behavior of the flexible joint is also investigated.

Description: Geometrically exact Cosserat rods with Kelvin–Voigt type viscous damping Mechanical Sciences, 4, 79-96, 2013 Author(s): J. Linn, H. Lang, and A. Tuganov We present the derivation of a simple viscous damping model of Kelvin–Voigt type for geometrically exact Cosserat rods from three-dimensional continuum theory. Assuming moderate curvature of the rod in its reference configuration, strains remaining small in its deformed configurations, strain rates that vary slowly compared to internal relaxation processes, and a homogeneous and isotropic material, we obtain explicit formulas for the damping parameters of the model in terms of the well known stiffness parameters of the rod and the retardation time constants defined as the ratios of bulk and shear viscosities to the respective elastic moduli. We briefly discuss the range of validity of the Kelvin–Voigt model and illustrate its behaviour for large bending deformations with a numerical example.

Description: Interaction of a monopole vortex with an isolated topographic feature in a three-layer geophysical flow Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 107-119, 2013 Author(s): E. A. Ryzhov and K. V. Koshel In the frame of a three-layer, quasi-geostrophic analytical model of an f -plane geophysical flow, the Lagrangian advection induced by the interaction of a monopole vortex with an isolated topographic feature is addressed. Two different cases when the monopole is located either within the upper or the middle layer are of our interest. In the bottom layer, there is a delta-function topographic feature, which generates a closed recirculation region in its vicinity due to the background flow. This recirculation region extends to the middle and upper layers, and it plays the role of a topographic vortex. The interaction between the monopole and the topographic vortex causes a complex, including chaotic, advection of fluid particles. We show that the model's parameters, namely the monopole and topographic vortices' strengths and initial positions, and the layers' depths and densities, are responsible for the diverse advection patterns. While the patterns are rather complicated, one can single out two major processes, which mostly govern the fluid particle advection. The first one is the variation in time of the system's phase space structure, so that within the closed region of the topographic vortex, there appear periodically unclosed particle pathways by which the particles leave the topographic vortex. The second one is chaotic advection that arises from the nonstationarity of the monopole–topography interaction.

Description: Electric potential differences across auroral generator interfaces Annales Geophysicae, 31, 251-261, 2013 Author(s): J. De Keyser and M. Echim Strong localized high-altitude auroral electric fields, such as those observed by Cluster, are often associated with magnetospheric interfaces. The type of high-altitude electric field profile (monopolar, bipolar, or more complicated) depends on the properties of the plasmas on either side of the interface, as well as on the total electric potential difference across the structure. The present paper explores the role of this cross-field electric potential difference in the situation where the interface is a tangential discontinuity. A self-consistent Vlasov description is used to determine the equilibrium configuration for different values of the transverse potential difference. A major observation is that there exist limits to the potential difference, beyond which no equilibrium configuration of the interface can be sustained. It is further demonstrated how the plasma densities and temperatures affect the type of electric field profile in the transition, with monopolar electric fields appearing primarily when the temperature contrast is large. These findings strongly support the observed association of monopolar fields with the plasma sheet boundary. The role of shear flow tangent to the interface is also examined.

Description: Variability of ionospheric TEC during solar and geomagnetic minima (2008 and 2009): external high speed stream drivers Annales Geophysicae, 31, 263-276, 2013 Author(s): O. P. Verkhoglyadova, B. T. Tsurutani, A. J. Mannucci, M. G. Mlynczak, L. A. Hunt, and T. Runge We study solar wind–ionosphere coupling through the late declining phase/solar minimum and geomagnetic minimum phases during the last solar cycle (SC23) – 2008 and 2009. This interval was characterized by sequences of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs). The concomitant geomagnetic response was moderate geomagnetic storms and high-intensity, long-duration continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) events. The JPL Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) software and the GPS total electron content (TEC) database were used to calculate the vertical TEC (VTEC) and estimate daily averaged values in separate latitude and local time ranges. Our results show distinct low- and mid-latitude VTEC responses to HSSs during this interval, with the low-latitude daytime daily averaged values increasing by up to 33 TECU (annual average of ~20 TECU) near local noon (12:00 to 14:00 LT) in 2008. In 2009 during the minimum geomagnetic activity (MGA) interval, the response to HSSs was a maximum of ~30 TECU increases with a slightly lower average value than in 2008. There was a weak nighttime ionospheric response to the HSSs. A well-studied solar cycle declining phase interval, 10–22 October 2003, was analyzed for comparative purposes, with daytime low-latitude VTEC peak values of up to ~58 TECU (event average of ~55 TECU). The ionospheric VTEC changes during 2008–2009 were similar but ~60% less intense on average. There is an evidence of correlations of filtered daily averaged VTEC data with Ap index and solar wind speed. We use the infrared NO and CO 2 emission data obtained with SABER on TIMED as a proxy for the radiation balance of the thermosphere. It is shown that infrared emissions increase during HSS events possibly due to increased energy input into the auroral region associated with HILDCAAs. The 2008–2009 HSS intervals were ~85% less intense than the 2003 early declining phase event, with annual averages of daily infrared NO emission power of ~ 3.3 × 10 10 W and 2.7 × 10 10 W in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The roles of disturbance dynamos caused by high-latitude winds (due to particle precipitation and Joule heating in the auroral zones) and of prompt penetrating electric fields (PPEFs) in the solar wind–ionosphere coupling during these intervals are discussed. A correlation between geoeffective interplanetary electric field components and HSS intervals is shown. Both PPEF and disturbance dynamo mechanisms could play important roles in solar wind–ionosphere coupling during prolonged (up to days) external driving within HILDCAA intervals.

Description: CHRONO: a parallel multi-physics library for rigid-body, flexible-body, and fluid dynamics Mechanical Sciences, 4, 49-64, 2013 Author(s): H. Mazhar, T. Heyn, A. Pazouki, D. Melanz, A. Seidl, A. Bartholomew, A. Tasora, and D. Negrut The last decade witnessed a manifest shift in the microprocessor industry towards chip designs that promote parallel computing. Until recently the privilege of a select group of large research centers, Teraflop computing is becoming a commodity owing to inexpensive GPU cards and multi to many-core x86 processors. This paradigm shift towards large scale parallel computing has been leveraged in CHRONO, a freely available C++ multi-physics simulation package. CHRONO is made up of a collection of loosely coupled components that facilitate different aspects of multi-physics modeling, simulation, and visualization. This contribution provides an overview of CHRONO::Engine, CHRONO::Flex, CHRONO::Fluid, and CHRONO::Render, which are modules that can capitalize on the processing power of hundreds of parallel processors. Problems that can be tackled in CHRONO include but are not limited to granular material dynamics, tangled large flexible structures with self contact, particulate flows, and tracked vehicle mobility. The paper presents an overview of each of these modules and illustrates through several examples the potential of this multi-physics library.

Description: Algebraic analysis of kinematics of multibody systems Mechanical Sciences, 4, 33-47, 2013 Author(s): S. Piipponen and J. Tuomela The constructive commutative algebra is very useful in the kinematical analysis of the mechanisms because a large class of systems can be described using polynomial equations. We show that one can analyze quite complicated systems using a sort of divide and conquer strategy to decompose the system, and hence the configuration space, into simpler parts. The key observation is that it seems that typically systems indeed have a lot of distinct components, but usually only one of them is physically relevant. Hence if one finds the equations describing the component of interest the analysis of this system can be surprisingly simple compared to the original system. In particular typically the possible singularities of the original system disappear when one restricts the attention to the relevant component. On the technical side we show that some basic constraints used to define joints in 3 dimensional mechanisms can be decomposed to simpler parts. This has significant practical consequences because using these fundamental decompositions when writing the equations for complicated mechanisms decreases dramatically the complexity of the required computations.

Description: Case study of stratospheric gravity waves of convective origin over Arctic Scandinavia – VHF radar observations and numerical modelling Annales Geophysicae, 31, 239-250, 2013 Author(s): A. Réchou, J. Arnault, P. Dalin, and S. Kirkwood Orography is a well-known source of gravity and inertia-gravity waves in the atmosphere. Other sources, such as convection, are also known to be potentially important but the large amplitude of orographic waves over Scandinavia has generally precluded the possibility to study such other sources experimentally in this region. In order to better understand the origin of stratospheric gravity waves observed by the VHF radar ESRAD (Esrange MST radar) over Kiruna, in Arctic Sweden (67.88° N, 21.10° E), observations have been compared to simulations made using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with and without the effects of orography and clouds. This case study concerns gravity waves observed from 00:00 UTC on 18 February to 12:00 UTC on 20 February 2007. We focus on the wave signatures in the static stability field and vertical wind deduced from the simulations and from the observations as these are the parameters which are provided by the observations with the best height coverage. As is common at this site, orographic gravity waves were produced over the Scandinavian mountains and observed by the radar. However, at the same time, southward propagation of fronts in the Barents Sea created short-period waves which propagated into the stratosphere and were transported, embedded in the cyclonic winds, over the radar site.

Description: Long-term trends in the ionospheric F2 region with different solar activity indices Annales Geophysicae, 31, 291-303, 2013 Author(s): J. Mielich and J. Bremer A new comprehensive data collection by Damboldt and Suessmann (2012a) with monthly fo F2 and M(3000)F2 median values is an excellent basis for the derivation of long-term trends in the ionospheric F2 region. Ionospheric trends have been derived only for stations with data series of at least 22 years (124 stations with fo F2 data and 113 stations with M(3000)F2 data) using a twofold regression analysis depending on solar and geomagnetic activity. Three main results have been derived: Firstly, it could be shown that the solar 10.7 cm radio flux F10.7 is a better index for the description of the solar activity than the relative solar sunspot number R as well as the solar EUV proxy E10.7. Secondly, the global mean fo F2 and hm F2 trends derived for the interval between 1948 and 2006 are in surprisingly good agreement with model calculations of an increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect (Rishbeth and Roble, 1992). Thirdly, during the years 2007 until 2009, the hm F2 values and to a smaller amount the fo F2 values strongly decrease. The reason for this effect is a reduction of the thermospheric density and ionization due to a markedly reduced solar EUV irradiation and extremely small geomagnetic activity during the solar cycle 23/24 minimum.

Description: Reaction Null Space of a multibody system with applications in robotics Mechanical Sciences, 4, 97-112, 2013 Author(s): D. N. Nenchev This paper provides an overview of implementation examples based on the Reaction Null Space formalism, developed initially to tackle the problem of satellite-base disturbance of a free-floating space robot, when the robot arm is activated. The method has been applied throughout the years to other unfixed-base systems, e.g. flexible-base and macro/mini robot systems, as well as to the balance control problem of humanoid robots. The paper also includes most recent results about complete dynamical decoupling of the end-link of a fixed-base robot, wherein the end-link is regarded as the unfixed-base. This interpretation is shown to be useful with regard to motion/force control scenarios. Respective implementation results are provided.

Description: Characterization of turbulence stability through the identification of multifractional Brownian motions Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 97-106, 2013 Author(s): K. C. Lee Multifractional Brownian motions have become popular as flexible models in describing real-life signals of high-frequency features in geoscience, microeconomics, and turbulence, to name a few. The time-changing Hurst exponent, which describes regularity levels depending on time measurements, and variance, which relates to an energy level, are two parameters that characterize multifractional Brownian motions. This research suggests a combined method of estimating the time-changing Hurst exponent and variance using the local variation of sampled paths of signals. The method consists of two phases: initially estimating global variance and then accurately estimating the time-changing Hurst exponent. A simulation study shows its performance in estimation of the parameters. The proposed method is applied to characterization of atmospheric stability in which descriptive statistics from the estimated time-changing Hurst exponent and variance classify stable atmosphere flows from unstable ones.

Description: Simultaneous measurement of OI 557.7 nm, O 2 (0, 1) Atmospheric Band and OH (6, 2) Meinel Band nightglow at Kolhapur (17° N), India Annales Geophysicae, 31, 197-208, 2013 Author(s): N. Parihar, A. Taori, S. Gurubaran, and G. K. Mukherjee Near-simultaneous measurements of OI 557.7 nm, O 2 (0, 1) Atmospheric Band and OH (6, 2) Meinel Band nightglow were carried out at Kolhapur (17° N), India during February–March 2007. Atmospheric temperatures around 87 and 94 km were derived from the knowledge of intensity measurements of spectral features OH (6, 2) Meinel Band and O 2 Atmospheric Band, respectively. An account of the behaviour of derived temperatures has been presented. The nocturnal behaviour of OH and O 2 temperatures is governed by the waves of tidal origin, whereas the signatures of planetary wave-like oscillations is noted in the night-to-night variation of two temperatures. This is probably the first report of planetary waves observed in nightglow temperatures from the Indian subcontinent.

Description: Refilling process in the plasmasphere: a 3-D statistical characterization based on Cluster density observations Annales Geophysicae, 31, 217-237, 2013 Author(s): G. Lointier, F. Darrouzet, P. M. E. Décréau, X. Vallières, S. Kougblénou, J. G. Trotignon, and J.-L. Rauch The Cluster mission offers an excellent opportunity to investigate the evolution of the plasma population in a large part of the inner magnetosphere, explored near its orbit's perigee, over a complete solar cycle. The WHISPER sounder, on board each satellite of the mission, is particularly suitable to study the electron density in this region, between 0.2 and 80 cm −3 . Compiling WHISPER observations during 1339 perigee passes distributed over more than three years of the Cluster mission, we present first results of a statistical analysis dedicated to the study of the electron density morphology and dynamics along and across magnetic field lines between L = 2 and L = 10. In this study, we examine a specific topic: the refilling of the plasmasphere and trough regions during extended periods of quiet magnetic conditions. To do so, we survey the evolution of the ap index during the days preceding each perigee crossing and sort out electron density profiles along the orbit according to three classes, namely after respectively less than 2 days, between 2 and 4 days, and more than 4 days of quiet magnetic conditions (ap ≤ 15 nT) following an active episode (ap 〉 15 nT). This leads to three independent data subsets. Comparisons between density distributions in the 3-D plasmasphere and trough regions at the three stages of quiet magnetosphere provide novel views about the distribution of matter inside the inner magnetosphere during several days of low activity. Clear signatures of a refilling process inside an expended plasmasphere in formation are noted. A plasmapause-like boundary, at L ~ 6 for all MLT sectors, is formed after 3 to 4 days and expends somewhat further after that. In the outer part of the plasmasphere ( L ~ 8), latitudinal profiles of median density values vary essentially according to the MLT sector considered rather than according to the refilling duration. The shape of these density profiles indicates that magnetic flux tubes are not fully replenished after 6 days of quiet conditions. In addition, the outer plasmasphere in the night and dawn sectors (22:00 to 10:00 MLT range) maintains an overall clear deficit of ionospheric population, when compared to the situation in the noon and dusk sectors (10:00 to 22:00 MLT range).

Description: Spatiotemporal variability analysis of diffuse radiation in China during 1981–2010 Annales Geophysicae, 31, 277-289, 2013 Author(s): X. L. Ren, H. L. He, L. Zhang, L. Zhou, G. R. Yu, and J. W. Fan Solar radiation is the primary driver of terrestrial plant photosynthesis and the diffuse component can enhance canopy light use efficiency (LUE), which in turn influences the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. In this study we calculated the spatial data of diffuse radiation in China from 1981 to 2010, using a radiation decomposition model and spatial interpolation method based on observational data. Furthermore, we explored the spatiotemporal characteristics of diffuse radiation using GIS and trend analysis techniques. The results show the following: (1) The spatial patterns of perennial average of annual diffuse radiation during 1981–2010 are complex and inhomogeneous in China, generally lower in the north and higher in the south and west. The perennial average ranges from 1730.20 to 3064.41 MJ m −2 yr −1 across the whole country. (2) There is an increasing trend of annual diffuse radiation in China from 1981 to 2010 on the whole, with mean increasing amplitude of 7.03 MJ m −2 yr −1 per decade. Whereas a significant downtrend was observed in the first 10 years, distinct anomalies in 1982, 1983, 1991 and 1992 occurred due to the eruptions of El Chinchon and Pinatubo. (3) The spatial distribution of the temporal variability of diffuse radiation showed significant regional heterogeneity in addition to the seasonal differences. Northwestern China has the most evident downtrend, with highest decreasing rate of 6% per decade, while the Tibetan Plateau has the most evident uptrend, with highest increasing rate of up to 9% per decade. Such quantitative spatiotemporal characteristics of diffuse radiation are essential in regional scale modeling of terrestrial carbon dynamics.

Description: A tri-stage cluster identification model for accurate analysis of seismic catalogs Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 143-162, 2013 Author(s): S. J. Nanda, K. F. Tiampo, G. Panda, L. Mansinha, N. Cho, and A. Mignan In this paper we propose a tri-stage cluster identification model that is a combination of a simple single iteration distance algorithm and an iterative K-means algorithm. In this study of earthquake seismicity, the model considers event location, time and magnitude information from earthquake catalog data to efficiently classify events as either background or mainshock and aftershock sequences. Tests on a synthetic seismicity catalog demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed model in terms of accuracy percentage (94.81% for background and 89.46% for aftershocks). The close agreement between lambda and cumulative plots for the ideal synthetic catalog and that generated by the proposed model also supports the accuracy of the proposed technique. There is flexibility in the model design to allow for proper selection of location and magnitude ranges, depending upon the nature of the mainshocks present in the catalog. The effectiveness of the proposed model also is evaluated by the classification of events in three historic catalogs: California, Japan and Indonesia. As expected, for both synthetic and historic catalog analysis it is observed that the density of events classified as background is almost uniform throughout the region, whereas the density of aftershock events are higher near the mainshocks.

Description: Scaling for lobe and cleft patterns in particle-laden gravity currents Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 121-130, 2013 Author(s): A. Jackson, B. Turnbull, and R. Munro Lobe and cleft patterns are frequently observed at the leading edge of gravity currents, including non-Boussinesq particle-laden currents such as powder snow avalanches. Despite the importance of the instability in driving air entrainment, little is known about its origin or the mechanisms behind its development. In this paper we seek to gain a better understanding of these mechanisms from a laboratory scale model of powder snow avalanches using lightweight granular material. The instability mechanisms in these flows appear to be a combination of those found in both homogeneous Boussinesq gravity currents and unsuspended granular flows, with the size of the granular particles playing a central role in determining the wavelength of the lobe and cleft pattern. When scaled by particle diameter a relationship between the Froude number and the wavelength of the lobe and cleft pattern is found, where the wavelength increases monotonically with the Froude number.

Description: Inversion of the western Pacific subtropical high dynamic model and analysis of dynamic characteristics for its abnormality Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 131-142, 2013 Author(s): M. Hong, R. Zhang, J. X. Li, J. J. Ge, and K. F. Liu Based on time series data of 500 hPa potential field from NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Forecast of American/National Center for Atmospheric Research), a novel consideration of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) time–space separation and dynamic system reconstruction for time series is introduced. This method consists of two parts: first, the dynamical model inversion and model parameter optimization are carried out on the EOF time coefficient series using the genetic algorithm (GA), and, second, a nonlinear dynamic model representing the subtropical high (SH) activity and its abnormality is established. The SH activity and its abnormal mechanism is studied using the developed dynamical model. Results show that the configuration and diversification of the SH equilibriums have good correspondence with the actual short–medium term abnormal activity of the SH. Change of SH potential field brought by the combination of equilibriums is more complex than that by mutation, and their exhibition patterns are different. The mutation behavior from high-value to low-value equilibriums of the SH in summer corresponds with the southward drop of the SH in the observed weather process. The combination behavior of the two steady equilibriums corresponds with disappearance of the "double-ridge" phenomenon of the SH. Dynamical mechanisms of these phenomena are explained.

Description: Evolution of the DeNOC-based dynamic modelling for multibody systems Mechanical Sciences, 4, 1-20, 2013 Author(s): S. K. Saha, S. V. Shah, and P. V. Nandihal Dynamic modelling of a multibody system plays very essential role in its analyses. As a result, several methods for dynamic modelling have evolved over the years that allow one to analyse multibody systems in a very efficient manner. One such method of dynamic modelling is based on the concept of the Decoupled Natural Orthogonal Complement (DeNOC) matrices. The DeNOC-based methodology for dynamics modelling, since its introduction in 1995, has been applied to a variety of multibody systems such as serial, parallel, general closed-loop, flexible, legged, cam-follower, and space robots. The methodology has also proven useful for modelling of proteins and hyper-degree-of-freedom systems like ropes, chains, etc. This paper captures the evolution of the DeNOC-based dynamic modelling applied to different type of systems, and its benefits over other existing methodologies. It is shown that the DeNOC-based modelling provides deeper understanding of the dynamics of a multibody system. The power of the DeNOC-based modelling has been illustrated using several numerical examples.

Description: Wavefield decomposition and phase space dynamics of the seismic noise at Volcàn de Colima, Mexico: evidence of a two-state source process Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 71-84, 2013 Author(s): M. Palo and P. Cusano We analyse the seismic noise recorded at the Colima Volcano (Mexico) in the period December 2005–May 2006 by four broadband three-component seismic stations. Specifically, we characterize the spectral content of the signal and follow its time evolution along all the data set. Moreover, we infer the properties of the attractor in the phase space by false nearest neighbours analysis and Grassberger–Procaccia algorithm, and adopt a time-domain decomposition method (independent component analysis) to find the basic constituents (independent components) of the system. Constraints on the seismic wavefield are inferred by the polarization analysis. We find two states of the background seismicity visible in different time-intervals that are Phase A and Phase B. Phase A has a spectrum with two peaks at 0.15 Hz and 0.3 Hz, with the latter dominating, an attractor of correlation dimension close to 3, three quasi-monochromatic independent components, and a relevant fraction of crater-pointing polarization solutions in the near-field. In Phase B, the spectrum is preserved but with the highest peak at 0.15 Hz, the attractor has a correlation dimension close to 2, two independent components are extracted, and the polarization solutions are dominated by Rayleigh waves incoming from the southwest direction. We depict two sources acting on the background seismicity that are the microseismic noise loading on the Pacific coastline and a low-energy volcanic tremor. A change in the amplitude of the microseismic noise can induce the switching from a state of the system to the other.

Description: Comment on "Storming the Bastille: the effect of electric fields on the ionospheric F-layer" by Rishbeth et al. (2010) Annales Geophysicae, 31, 145-150, 2013 Author(s): B. T. Tsurutani, A. J. Mannuccci, O. P. Verkhoglyadova, and G. S. Lakhina No abstract available.

Description: Monolithic 2 DOF fully compliant space pointing mechanism Mechanical Sciences, 4, 381-390, 2013 Author(s): E. G. Merriam, J. E. Jones, S. P. Magleby, and L. L. Howell This paper describes the conception, modeling, and development of a fully compliant two-degree-of-freedom pointing mechanism for application in spacecraft thruster, antenna, or solar array systems. The design objectives and the advantages of a compliant solution are briefly discussed. Detailed design decisions to meet project objectives are described. Analytical and numerical models are developed and subsequently verified by prototype testing and measurements in several iterations. A final design of the 3-D printed titanium monolithic pointing mechanism is described in detail and its performance is measured.

Description: Scaling properties of rainfall and desert dust in the Canary Islands Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 1079-1094, 2013 Author(s): I. Peñate, J. M. Martín-González, G. Rodríguez, and A. Cianca Precipitation and desert dust event occurrence time series measured in the Canary Islands region are examined with the primary intention of exploring their scaling characteristics as well as their spatial variability in terms of the island's topography and geographical orientation. In particular, the desert dust intrusion regime in the islands is studied in terms of its relationship with visibility. Analysis of dust and rainfall events over the archipelago exhibits distributions in time that obey power laws. Results show that the rain process presents a high clustering and irregular pattern on short timescales and a more scattered structure for long ones. In contrast, dustiness presents a more uniform and dense structure and, consequently, a more persistent behaviour on short timescales. It was observed that the fractal dimension of rainfall events shows an important spatial variability, which increases with altitude, as well as towards northern latitudes and western longitudes.

Description: Recurrence time distribution and temporal clustering properties of a cellular automaton modelling landslide events Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 1071-1078, 2013 Author(s): E. Piegari, R. Di Maio, and A. Avella Reasonable prediction of landslide occurrences in a given area requires the choice of an appropriate probability distribution of recurrence time intervals. Although landslides are widespread and frequent in many parts of the world, complete databases of landslide occurrences over large periods are missing and often such natural disasters are treated as processes uncorrelated in time and, therefore, Poisson distributed. In this paper, we examine the recurrence time statistics of landslide events simulated by a cellular automaton model that reproduces well the actual frequency-size statistics of landslide catalogues. The complex time series are analysed by varying both the threshold above which the time between events is recorded and the values of the key model parameters. The synthetic recurrence time probability distribution is shown to be strongly dependent on the rate at which instability is approached, providing a smooth crossover from a power-law regime to a Weibull regime. Moreover, a Fano factor analysis shows a clear indication of different degrees of correlation in landslide time series. Such a finding supports, at least in part, a recent analysis performed for the first time of an historical landslide time series over a time window of fifty years.

Description: Statistical study of foreshock cavitons Annales Geophysicae, 31, 2163-2178, 2013 Author(s): P. Kajdič, X. Blanco-Cano, N. Omidi, K. Meziane, C. T. Russell, J.-A. Sauvaud, I. Dandouras, and B. Lavraud In this work we perform a statistical analysis of 92 foreshock cavitons observed with the Cluster spacecraft 1 during the period 2001–2006. We analyze time intervals during which the spacecraft was located in the Earth's foreshock with durations longer than 10 min. Together these amount to ~ 50 days. The cavitons are transient structures in the Earth's foreshock. Their main signatures in the data include simultaneous depletions of the magnetic field intensity and plasma density, which are surrounded by a rim of enhanced values of these two quantities. Cavitons form due to nonlinear interaction of transverse and compressive ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves and are therefore always surrounded by intense compressive ULF fluctuations. They are carried by the solar wind towards the bow shock. This work represents the first systematic study of a large sample of foreshock cavitons. We find that cavitons appear for a wide range of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field conditions and are therefore a common feature upstream of Earth's quasi-parallel bow shock with an average occurrence rate of ~ 2 events per day. We also discuss their observational properties in the context of other known upstream phenomena and show that the cavitons are a distinct structure in the foreshock.

Description: Theoretical constraints on the cross-tail width of bursty bulk flows Annales Geophysicae, 31, 2179-2192, 2013 Author(s): C. X. Chen The characteristic cross-tail width of bursty bulk flows (BBFs) in earth's plasma sheet was investigated at two stages of its life, one at its onset, the other when it is fully developed. Equilibrium domains with gradient of magnetic field are constructed. Interchange instability analysis of such domains yields the most unstable mode with the half wave length comparable with the observed cross-tail width of a flow burst and the inverse of growth rate comparable with its duration. The thickness of the plasma sheet for the most unstable mode is also comparable to the width of BBFs in the north–south direction. We found that viscosity, the dimension of the unstable domain, the thickness of the plasma sheet and gradient of the magnetic field together determine the most unstable mode. The ion Larmor radius plays an important role in viscosity as half effective mean free path. For a fully developed flow, however, velocity-caused pressure difference between the leading and trailing sides of a flow burst also plays a role. The equatorial cross section of flow is reshaped and its cross-tail width is changed as well. Representing the surrounding medium with empirical magnetic field and plasma models, the force balance of the fast flow is analyzed. The cross-section area of flow burst is estimated to be one to several square earth radii, and the cross-tail width of fast flow is estimated to be 1 to 3 earth radii, which is consistent with observations of BBFs.

Description: Large eddy simulation model for wind-driven sea circulation in coastal areas Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 1095-1112, 2013 Author(s): A. Petronio, F. Roman, C. Nasello, and V. Armenio In the present paper a state-of-the-art large eddy simulation model (LES-COAST), suited for the analysis of water circulation and mixing in closed or semi-closed areas, is presented and applied to the study of the hydrodynamic characteristics of the Muggia bay, the industrial harbor of the city of Trieste, Italy. The model solves the non-hydrostatic, unsteady Navier–Stokes equations, under the Boussinesq approximation for temperature and salinity buoyancy effects, using a novel, two-eddy viscosity Smagorinsky model for the closure of the subgrid-scale momentum fluxes. The model employs: a simple and effective technique to take into account wind-stress inhomogeneity related to the blocking effect of emerged structures, which, in turn, can drive local-scale, short-term pollutant dispersion; a new nesting procedure to reconstruct instantaneous, turbulent velocity components, temperature and salinity at the open boundaries of the domain using data coming from large-scale circulation models (LCM). Validation tests have shown that the model reproduces field measurement satisfactorily. The analysis of water circulation and mixing in the Muggia bay has been carried out under three typical breeze conditions. Water circulation has been shown to behave as in typical semi-closed basins, with an upper layer moving along the wind direction (apart from the anti-cyclonic veering associated with the Coriolis force) and a bottom layer, thicker and slower than the upper one, moving along the opposite direction. The study has shown that water vertical mixing in the bay is inhibited by a large level of stable stratification, mainly associated with vertical variation in salinity and, to a minor extent, with temperature variation along the water column. More intense mixing, quantified by sub-critical values of the gradient Richardson number, is present in near-coastal regions where upwelling/downwelling phenomena occur. The analysis of instantaneous fields has detected the presence of large cross-sectional eddies spanning the whole water column and contributing to vertical mixing, associated with the presence of sub-surface horizontal turbulent structures. Analysis of water renewal within the bay shows that, under the typical breeze regimes considered in the study, the residence time of water in the bay is of the order of a few days. Finally, vertical eddy viscosity has been calculated and shown to vary by a couple of orders of magnitude along the water column, with larger values near the bottom surface where density stratification is smaller.

Description: Ray tracing model of the auroral kilometric radiation generation in the 3-D plasma cavity Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1645-1652, 2013 Author(s): T. M. Burinskaya Propagation and amplification of the auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) in a three-dimensional plasma cavity is investigated using the approximation of the geometrical optics, and taking into account both the slightly relativistic electrons propagating inside a cavity and the background cold electrons. It is shown that the global magnetic field inhomogeneity plays a key role in a wave escape from a thin plasma cavity. The main contribution to the AKR spectrum is made by waves initially generated with the component of group velocity directed to the Earth and with the optimum relationship between the wave vector components, controlling the value of the linear grow rate and duration of the ray lifetime inside a source.

Description: Empirical regional models for the short-term forecast of M3000F2 during not quiet geomagnetic conditions over Europe Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1653-1671, 2013 Author(s): M. Pietrella Twelve empirical local models have been developed for the long-term prediction of the ionospheric characteristic M3000F2 , and then used as starting point for the development of a short-term forecasting empirical regional model of M3000F2 under not quiet geomagnetic conditions. Under the assumption that the monthly median measurements of M3000F2 are linearly correlated to the solar activity, a set of regression coefficients were calculated over 12 months and 24 h for each of 12 ionospheric observatories located in the European area, and then used for the long-term prediction of M3000F2 at each station under consideration. Based on the 12 long-term prediction empirical local models of M3000F2 , an empirical regional model for the prediction of the monthly median field of M3000F2 over Europe (indicated as RM_M3000F2 ) was developed. Thanks to the IFELM_foF2 models, which are able to provide short-term forecasts of the critical frequency of the F2 layer ( fo F2 STF ) up to three hours in advance, it was possible to considerer the Brudley–Dudeney algorithm as a function of fo F2 STF to correct RM_M3000F2 and thus obtain an empirical regional model for the short-term forecasting of M3000F2 (indicated as RM_M3000F2_BD ) up to three hours in advance under not quiet geomagnetic conditions. From the long-term predictions of M3000F2 provided by the IRI model, an empirical regional model for the forecast of the monthly median field of M3000F2 over Europe (indicated as IRI_RM_M3000F2 ) was derived. IRI_RM_M3000F2 predictions were modified with the Bradley–Dudeney correction factor, and another empirical regional model for the short-term forecasting of M3000F2 (indicated as IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD ) up to three hours ahead under not quiet geomagnetic conditions was obtained. The main results achieved comparing the performance of RM_M3000F2 , RM_M3000F2_BD , IRI_RM_M3000F2 , and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD are (1) in the case of moderate geomagnetic activity, the Bradley–Dudeney correction factor does not improve significantly the predictions; (2) under disturbed geomagnetic conditions, the Bradley–Dudeney formula improves the predictions of RM_M3000F2 in the entire European area; (3) in the case of very disturbed geomagnetic conditions, the Bradley–Dudeney algorithm is very effective in improving the performance of IRI_RM_M3000F2 ; (4) under moderate geomagnetic conditions, the long-term prediction maps of M3000F2 generated by RM_M3000F2 can be considered as short-term forecasting maps providing very satisfactory results because quiet geomagnetic conditions are not so diverse from moderate geomagnetic conditions; (5) the forecasting maps originated by RM_M3000F2 , RM_M3000F2_BD , and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD show some regions where the forecasts are not satisfactory, but also wide sectors where the M3000F2 forecasts quite faithfully match the M3000F2 observations, and therefore RM_M3000F2 , RM_M3000F2_BD , and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD could be exploited to produce short-term forecasting maps of M3000F2 over Europe up to 3 h in advance.

Description: On the supply of heavy planetary material to the magnetotail of Mercury Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1673-1679, 2013 Author(s): D. C. Delcourt We examine the transport of low-energy heavy ions of planetary origin (O + , Na + , Ca + ) in the magnetosphere of Mercury. We show that, in contrast to Earth, these ions are abruptly energized after ejection into the magnetosphere due to enhanced curvature-related parallel acceleration. Regardless of their mass-to-charge ratio, the parallel speed of these ions is rapidly raised up to ~ 2 V E × B (denoting by V E × B the magnitude of the local E × B drift speed), in a like manner to Fermi-type acceleration by a moving magnetic mirror. This parallel energization is such that ions with very low initial energies (a few tenths of eVs) can overcome gravity and, regardless of species or convection rate, are transported over comparable distances into the nightside magnetosphere. The region of space where these ions reach the magnetotail is found to extend over altitudes similar to those where enhanced densities are noticeable in the MESSENGER data, viz., from ~ 1000 km up to ~ 6000 km in the pre-midnight sector. The observed density enhancements may thus follow from E × B related focusing of planetary material of dayside origin into the magnetotail. Due to the planetary magnetic field offset, an asymmetry is found between drift paths anchored in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, which puts forward a predominant role of heavy material originating in the Northern Hemisphere in populating the innermost region of Mercury's magnetotail.

Description: 20th century intraseasonal Asian monsoon dynamics viewed from Isomap Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 725-741, 2013 Author(s): A. Hannachi and A. G. Turner The Asian summer monsoon is a high-dimensional and highly nonlinear phenomenon involving considerable moisture transport towards land from the ocean, and is critical for the whole region. We have used daily ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40) sea-level pressure (SLP) anomalies on the seasonal cycle, over the region 50–145° E, 20° S–35° N, to study the nonlinearity of the Asian monsoon using Isomap. We have focused on the two-dimensional embedding of the SLP anomalies for ease of interpretation. Unlike the unimodality obtained from tests performed in empirical orthogonal function space, the probability density function, within the two-dimensional Isomap space, turns out to be bimodal. But a clustering procedure applied to the SLP data reveals support for three clusters, which are identified using a three-component bivariate Gaussian mixture model. The modes are found to appear similar to active and break phases of the monsoon over South Asia in addition to a third phase, which shows active conditions over the western North Pacific. Using the low-level wind field anomalies, the active phase over South Asia is found to be characterised by a strengthening and an eastward extension of the Somali jet. However during the break phase, the Somali jet is weakened near southern India, while the monsoon trough in northern India also weakens. Interpretation is aided using the APHRODITE gridded land precipitation product for monsoon Asia. The effect of large-scale seasonal mean monsoon and lower boundary forcing, in the form of ENSO, is also investigated and discussed. The outcome here is that ENSO is shown to perturb the intraseasonal regimes, in agreement with conceptual ideas.

Description: Evaluating the applicability of the finite element method for modelling of geoelectric fields Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1689-1698, 2013 Author(s): B. Dong, D. W. Danskin, R. J. Pirjola, D. H. Boteler, and Z. Z. Wang Geomagnetically induced currents in power systems are due to space weather events which create geomagnetic disturbances accompanied by electric fields at the surface of the Earth. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the use of the finite element method (FEM) to calculate the magnetic and electric fields to which long transmission lines of power systems on the Earth are exposed. The well-known technique of FEM is used for the first time to simulate magnetic and electric fields applicable to power systems. Several test cases are modelled and compared with known solutions. It is shown that FEM is an effective modelling technique that can be applied to determine the electric fields which affect power systems. FEM enables an increased capability beyond the traditional methods for modelling electric and magnetic fields with layered earth conductivity structures, as spatially more complex structures can be considered using FEM. As an example results are presented for induction, due to a line current source, in adjacent regions with different layered conductivity structures. The results show the electric field away from the interface is the same as calculated for a single region; however near the interface the electric field is influenced by both regions.

Description: Stereoscopic determination of all-sky altitude map of aurora using two ground-based Nikon DSLR cameras Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1543-1548, 2013 Author(s): R. Kataoka, Y. Miyoshi, K. Shigematsu, D. Hampton, Y. Mori, T. Kubo, A. Yamashita, M. Tanaka, T. Takahei, T. Nakai, H. Miyahara, and K. Shiokawa A new stereoscopic measurement technique is developed to obtain an all-sky altitude map of aurora using two ground-based digital single-lens reflex (DSLR) cameras. Two identical full-color all-sky cameras were set with an 8 km separation across the Chatanika area in Alaska (Poker Flat Research Range and Aurora Borealis Lodge) to find localized emission height with the maximum correlation of the apparent patterns in the localized pixels applying a method of the geographical coordinate transform. It is found that a typical ray structure of discrete aurora shows the broad altitude distribution above 100 km, while a typical patchy structure of pulsating aurora shows the narrow altitude distribution of less than 100 km. Because of its portability and low cost of the DSLR camera systems, the new technique may open a unique opportunity not only for scientists but also for night-sky photographers to complementarily attend the aurora science to potentially form a dense observation network.

Description: Transformation of internal solitary waves at the "deep" and "shallow" shelf: satellite observations and laboratory experiment Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 743-757, 2013 Author(s): O. D. Shishkina, J. K. Sveen, and J. Grue An interaction of internal solitary waves with the shelf edge in the time periods related to the presence of a pronounced seasonal pycnocline in the Red Sea and in the Alboran Sea is analysed via satellite photos and SAR images. Laboratory data on transformation of a solitary wave of depression while passing along the transverse bottom step were obtained in a tank with a two-layer stratified fluid. The certain difference between two characteristic types of hydrophysical phenomena was revealed both in the field observations and in experiments. The hydrological conditions for these two processes were named the "deep" and the "shallow" shelf respectively. The first one provides the generation of the secondary periodic short internal waves – "runaway" edge waves – due to change in the polarity of a part of a soliton approaching the shelf normally. Another one causes a periodic shear flow in the upper quasi-homogeneous water layer with the period of incident solitary wave. The strength of the revealed mechanisms depends on the thickness of the water layer between the pycnocline and the shelf bottom as well as on the amplitude of the incident solitary wave.

Description: Dispersion of aerosol particles in the free atmosphere using ensemble forecasts Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 759-770, 2013 Author(s): T. Haszpra, I. Lagzi, and T. Tél The dispersion of aerosol particle pollutants is studied using 50 members of an ensemble forecast in the example of a hypothetical free atmospheric emission above Fukushima over a period of 2.5 days. Considerable differences are found among the dispersion predictions of the different ensemble members, as well as between the ensemble mean and the deterministic result at the end of the observation period. The variance is found to decrease with the particle size. The geographical area where a threshold concentration is exceeded in at least one ensemble member expands to a 5–10 times larger region than the area from the deterministic forecast, both for air column "concentration" and in the "deposition" field. We demonstrate that the root-mean-square distance of any particle from its own clones in the ensemble members can reach values on the order of one thousand kilometers. Even the centers of mass of the particle cloud of the ensemble members deviate considerably from that obtained by the deterministic forecast. All these indicate that an investigation of the dispersion of aerosol particles in the spirit of ensemble forecast contains useful hints for the improvement of risk assessment.

Description: New empirical stiffness equations for corner-filleted flexure hinges Mechanical Sciences, 4, 345-356, 2013 Author(s): Q. Meng, Y. Li, and J. Xu This paper investigates the existing stiffness equations for corner-filleted flexure hinges. Three empirical stiffness equations for corner-filleted flexure hinges (each fillet radius, r , equals to 0.1 l ; l , the length of a corner-filleted flexure hinge) are formulated based on finite element analysis results for the purpose of overcoming these investigated limitations. Three comparisons made with the existing compliance/stiffness equations and finite element analysis (FEA) results indicate that the proposed empirical stiffness equations enlarge the range of rate of thickness ( t , the minimum thickness of a corner-filleted flexure hinge) to length ( l ), t/l (0.02 ≤ t/l ≤ 1) and ensure the accuracy for each empirical stiffness equation under large deformation. The errors are within 6% when compared to FEA results.

Description: Cluster as current sheet surveyor in the magnetotail Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1605-1610, 2013 Author(s): Y. Narita, R. Nakamura, and W. Baumjohann A novel analysis technique is presented to estimate the current sheet thickness unambiguously and directly, without associating time series data with spatial structure. The technique is a combination of eigenvalue analysis and minimum variance estimator adapted to Harris current sheet geometry, and needs one-time, four-point magnetic field data as provided by the Cluster spacecraft. Two current sheet parameters, thickness and distance to the spacecraft, can be determined at each time step of the magnetic field measurements. An example is shown from a Cluster magnetotail crossing under quiet magnetospheric conditions, yielding the result that the current sheet thickness is on the scale of the proton gyroradius. The analysis technique can also be used to track the dynamical evolution of the current sheet structure in three dimensions.

Description: Changes in the ultra-low frequency wave field during the precursor phase to the Sichuan earthquake: DEMETER observations Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1597-1603, 2013 Author(s): S. N. Walker, V. Kadirkamanathan, and O. A. Pokhotelov Electromagnetic phenomena observed in association with increases in seismic activity have been studied for several decades. These phenomena are generated during the precursory phases of an earthquake as well as during the main event. Their occurrence during the precursory phases may be used in short-term prediction of a large earthquake. In this paper, we examine ultra-low frequency (ULF) electric field data from the DEMETER satellite during the period leading up to the Sichuan earthquake. It is shown that there is an increase in ULF wave activity observed as DEMETER passes in the vicinity of the earthquake epicentre. This increase is most obvious at lower frequencies. Examination of the ULF spectra shows the possible occurrence of geomagnetic pearl pulsations, resulting from the passage of atmospheric gravity waves generated in the vicinity of the earthquake epicentre.

Description: Determination of wave vectors using the phase differencing method Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1611-1617, 2013 Author(s): S. N. Walker and I. Moiseenko Due to the collisionless nature of space plasmas, plasma waves play an important role in the redistribution of energy between the various particle populations in many regions of geospace. In order to fully comprehend such mechanisms it is necessary to characterise the nature of the waves present. This involves the determination of properties such as wave vector k . There are a number of methods used to calculate k based on the multipoint measurements that are now available. These methods rely on the fact that the same wave packet is simultaneously observed at two or more locations whose separation is small in comparison to the correlation length of the wave packet. This limitation restricts the analysis to low frequency (MHD) waves. In this paper we propose an extension to the phase differencing method to enable the correlation of measurements that were not made simultaneously but differ temporally by a number of wave periods. The method is illustrated using measurements of magnetosonic waves from the Cluster STAFF search coil magnetometer. It is shown that it is possible to identify wave packets whose coherence length is much less than the separation between the measurement locations. The resulting dispersion is found to agree with theoretical results.

Description: Effective CO 2 lifetime and future CO 2 levels based on fit function Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1591-1596, 2013 Author(s): G. R. Sonnemann and M. Grygalashvyly The estimated global CO 2 emission rates and the measured atmospheric CO 2 concentrations show that only a certain share of the emitted CO 2 accumulates in the atmosphere. For given atmospheric emissions of CO 2 , the effective lifetime determines its accumulation in the atmosphere and, consequently, its impact on the future global warming. We found that on average the inferred effective lifetime of CO 2 decreases as its atmospheric concentration increases, reducing the rate of its accumulation in the atmosphere. We derived a power function that fits the varying lifetimes. Based on this fitting function, we calculated the increase of CO 2 for different scenarios of future global emission rates.

Description: Enhanced EISCAT UHF backscatter during high-energy auroral electron precipitation Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1681-1687, 2013 Author(s): N. M. Schlatter, N. Ivchenko, T. Sergienko, B. Gustavsson, and B. U. E. Brändström Natural enhancements in the backscattered power of incoherent scatter radars up to 5 orders of magnitudes above the thermal backscatter are sometimes observed at high latitudes. Recently observations of enhancements in the backscattered power including a feature at zero Doppler shift have been reported. These enhancements are limited in altitude to tens of kilometers. The zero Doppler shift feature has been interpreted as a signature of electron density cavitation. Enhanced plasma lines during these observations have also been reported. We report on the first EISCAT UHF observations of enhanced backscattered radar power including a zero Doppler shift feature. The enhancements originated from two distinct and intermittent layers at about 200 km altitude. The altitude extent of the enhancements, observed during auroral high-energy electron precipitation, was 〈 2 km.

Description: Experimental investigation of water droplets' behavior in dielectric medium: the effect of an applied D.C. electric field Mechanical Sciences, 4, 333-344, 2013 Author(s): H. Bararnia and D. D. Ganji In this article, the behavior of water droplets which are suspended in silicon oil is qualitatively investigated and some phenomena such as liquid's burst are reported. The movement of droplet in perpendicular line is considered while many studies have considered small droplets fluctuating between two horizontal electrodes. Additionally any deformation caused by increasing voltage was observed from start to finish until short contact occurred. As can be seen two oppositely charged drops contacting each other do not necessarily result in coalescence. Repelling can be expected occasionally. By increasing the voltage, the droplets, which spread through the domain due to frequent breakups, tend to gather in a certain line.

Description: Seasonal dependence of the longitudinal variations of nighttime ionospheric electron density and equivalent winds at southern midlatitudes Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1699-1708, 2013 Author(s): X. Luan and X. Dou It has been indicated that the observed Weddell Sea anomaly (WSA) appeared to be an extreme manifestation of the longitudinal variations in the Southern Hemisphere, since the WSA is characterized by greater evening electron density than the daytime density in the region near the Weddell Sea. In the present study, the longitudinal variations of the nighttime F2-layer peak electron density at southern midlatitudes are analyzed using the observations of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellites between 2006 and 2008. It is found that significant longitudinal difference (〉 150%) relative to the minimum density at each local time prevails in all seasons, although the WSA phenomenon is only evident in summer under this solar minimum condition. Another interesting feature is that in summer, the maximum longitudinal differences occur around midnight (~ 23:00–00:00 LT) rather than in the evening (19:00–21:00 LT) in the evening, when the most prominent electron density enhancement occurs for the WSA phenomenon. Thus the seasonal–local time patterns of the electron density longitudinal variations during nighttime at southern midlatitudes cannot be simply explained in terms of the WSA. Meanwhile, the variations of the geomagnetic configuration and the equivalent magnetic meridional winds/upward plasma drifts are analyzed to explore their contributions to the longitudinal variations of the nighttime electron density. The maximum longitudinal differences are associated with the strongest wind-induced vertical plasma drifts after 21:00 LT in the Western Hemisphere. Besides the magnetic declination–zonal wind effects, the geographic meridional winds and the magnetic inclination also have significant effects on the upward plasma drifts and the resultant electron density.

Description: Extracting gravity wave parameters during the September 2002 Southern Hemisphere major sudden stratospheric warming using a SANAE imaging riometer Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1709-1719, 2013 Author(s): N. Mbatha, V. Sivakumar, H. Bencherif, and S. Malinga Using absorption data measured by imaging riometer for ionospheric studies (IRIS) located at the South Africa National Antarctic Expedition (SANAE), Antarctica (72° S, 3° W), we extracted the parameters of gravity waves (GW) of periods between 40 and 50 min during late winter/spring of the year 2002, a period of the unprecedented major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere middle atmosphere. During this period, an unprecedented substantial increase of temperature by about 25–30 K throughout the stratosphere was observed. During the period of the occurrence of the major stratospheric warming, there was a reduction of both the GW horizontal phase speeds and the horizontal wavelengths at 90 km. The GW phase speeds and horizontal wavelengths were observed to reach minimum values of about 7 m s −1 and 19 km, respectively, while during the quiet period the average value of the phase speed and horizontal wavelength was approximately 23 m s −1 and 62 km, respectively. The observed event is discussed in terms of momentum flux and also a potential interaction of gravity waves, planetary waves and mean circulation.

Description: Joint state and parameter estimation with an iterative ensemble Kalman smoother Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 803-818, 2013 Author(s): M. Bocquet and P. Sakov Both ensemble filtering and variational data assimilation methods have proven useful in the joint estimation of state variables and parameters of geophysical models. Yet, their respective benefits and drawbacks in this task are distinct. An ensemble variational method, known as the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS) has recently been introduced. It is based on an adjoint model-free variational, but flow-dependent, scheme. As such, the IEnKS is a candidate tool for joint state and parameter estimation that may inherit the benefits from both the ensemble filtering and variational approaches. In this study, an augmented state IEnKS is tested on its estimation of the forcing parameter of the Lorenz-95 model. Since joint state and parameter estimation is especially useful in applications where the forcings are uncertain but nevertheless determining, typically in atmospheric chemistry, the augmented state IEnKS is tested on a new low-order model that takes its meteorological part from the Lorenz-95 model, and its chemical part from the advection diffusion of a tracer. In these experiments, the IEnKS is compared to the ensemble Kalman filter, the ensemble Kalman smoother, and a 4D-Var, which are considered the methods of choice to solve these joint estimation problems. In this low-order model context, the IEnKS is shown to significantly outperform the other methods regardless of the length of the data assimilation window, and for present time analysis as well as retrospective analysis. Besides which, the performance of the IEnKS is even more striking on parameter estimation; getting close to the same performance with 4D-Var is likely to require both a long data assimilation window and a complex modeling of the background statistics.

Description: GNSS troposphere tomography based on two-step reconstructions using GPS observations and COSMIC profiles Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1805-1815, 2013 Author(s): P. Xia, C. Cai, and Z. Liu Traditionally, balloon-based radiosonde soundings are used to study the spatial distribution of atmospheric water vapour. However, this approach cannot be frequently employed due to its high cost. In contrast, GPS tomography technique can obtain water vapour in a high temporal resolution. In the tomography technique, an iterative or non-iterative reconstruction algorithm is usually utilised to overcome rank deficiency of observation equations for water vapour inversion. However, the single iterative or non-iterative reconstruction algorithm has their limitations. For instance, the iterative reconstruction algorithm requires accurate initial values of water vapour while the non-iterative reconstruction algorithm needs proper constraint conditions. To overcome these drawbacks, we present a combined iterative and non-iterative reconstruction approach for the three-dimensional (3-D) water vapour inversion using GPS observations and COSMIC profiles. In this approach, the non-iterative reconstruction algorithm is first used to estimate water vapour density based on a priori water vapour information derived from COSMIC radio occultation data. The estimates are then employed as initial values in the iterative reconstruction algorithm. The largest advantage of this approach is that precise initial values of water vapour density that are essential in the iterative reconstruction algorithm can be obtained. This combined reconstruction algorithm (CRA) is evaluated using 10-day GPS observations in Hong Kong and COSMIC profiles. The test results indicate that the water vapor accuracy from CRA is 16 and 14% higher than that of iterative and non-iterative reconstruction approaches, respectively. In addition, the tomography results obtained from the CRA are further validated using radiosonde data. Results indicate that water vapour densities derived from the CRA agree with radiosonde results very well at altitudes above 2.5 km. The average RMS value of their differences above 2.5 km is 0.44 g m −3 .

Description: Corrigendum to "Estimates of aerosol absorption over India using multi-satellite retrieval" published in Ann. Geophys., 31, 1773–1778, 2013 Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1791-1791, 2013 Author(s): D. Narasimhan and S. K. Satheesh No abstract available.

Description: Current challenges for pre-earthquake electromagnetic emissions: shedding light from micro-scale plastic flow, granular packings, phase transitions and self-affinity notion of fracture process Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 771-792, 2013 Author(s): K. Eftaxias and S. M. Potirakis Are there credible electromagnetic (EM) potential earthquake (EQ) precursors? This a question debated in the scientific community and there may be legitimate reasons for the critical views. The negative view concerning the existence of EM potential precursors is enhanced by features that accompany their observation which are considered as paradox ones, namely, these signals: (i) are not observed at the time of EQs occurrence and during the aftershock period, (ii) are not accompanied by large precursory strain changes, (iii) are not accompanied by simultaneous geodetic or seismological precursors and (iv) their traceability is considered problematic. In this work, the detected candidate EM potential precursors are studied through a shift in thinking towards the basic science findings relative to granular packings, micron-scale plastic flow, interface depinning, fracture size effects, concepts drawn from phase transitions, self-affine notion of fracture and faulting process, universal features of fracture surfaces, recent high quality laboratory studies, theoretical models and numerical simulations. We try to contribute to the establishment of strict criteria for the definition of an emerged EM anomaly as a possibly EQ-related one, and to the explanation of potential precursory EM features which have been considered as paradoxes. A three-stage model for EQ generation by means of pre-EQ fracture-induced EM emissions is proposed. The claim that the observed EM potential precursors may permit a real-time and step-by-step monitoring of the EQ generation is tested.

Description: A variational formulation for translation and assimilation of coherent structures Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 793-801, 2013 Author(s): M. Plu The assimilation of observations from teledetected images in geophysical models requires one to develop algorithms that would account for the existence of coherent structures. In the context of variational data assimilation, a method is proposed to allow the background to be translated so as to fit structure positions deduced from images. Translation occurs as a first step before assimilating all the observations using a classical assimilation procedure with specific covariances for the translated background. A simple validation is proposed using a dynamical system based on the one-dimensional complex Ginzburg–Landau equation in a regime prone to phase and amplitude errors. Assimilation of observations after background translation leads to better scores and a better representation of extremas than the method without translation.

Description: Frequency variations of gravity waves interacting with a time-varying tide Annales Geophysicae, 31, 1731-1743, 2013 Author(s): C. M. Huang, S. D. Zhang, F. Yi, K. M. Huang, Y. H. Zhang, Q. Gan, and Y. Gong Using a nonlinear, 2-D time-dependent numerical model, we simulate the propagation of gravity waves (GWs) in a time-varying tide. Our simulations show that when a GW packet propagates in a time-varying tidal-wind environment, not only its intrinsic frequency but also its ground-based frequency would change significantly. The tidal horizontal-wind acceleration dominates the GW frequency variation. Positive (negative) accelerations induce frequency increases (decreases) with time. More interestingly, tidal-wind acceleration near the critical layers always causes the GW frequency to increase, which may partially explain the observations that high-frequency GW components are more dominant in the middle and upper atmosphere than in the lower atmosphere. The combination of the increased ground-based frequency of propagating GWs in a time-varying tidal-wind field and the transient nature of the critical layer induced by a time-varying tidal zonal wind creates favorable conditions for GWs to penetrate their originally expected critical layers. Consequently, GWs have an impact on the background atmosphere at much higher altitudes than expected, which indicates that the dynamical effects of tidal–GW interactions are more complicated than usually taken into account by GW parameterizations in global models.

Description: Vector model of the timing diagram of automatic machine Mechanical Sciences, 4, 391-396, 2013 Author(s): A. Jomartov In this paper a vector model of timing diagram of automatic machine is developed, which allows us to solve a variety dynamic tasks by changing the parameters of timing diagram of its mechanisms. The connection between the parameters of the timing diagram of automatic machine and equations of motion mechanisms through functions of position and transfer functions of mechanisms is established. The vector model of timing diagram can be used to optimize the timing diagrams of looms and polygraphic machines.

Description: Voyager 2 observation of the multifractal spectrum in the heliosphere and the heliosheath Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 1061-1070, 2013 Author(s): W. M. Macek and A. Wawrzaszek We look in detail at the multifractal scaling of the fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field strength as measured onboard Voyager 2 in the entire heliosphere and even in the heliosheath. More specifically, we analyse the spectra observed by Voyager 2 in a wide range of solar activity cycles during the years 1980–2009 at various heliospheric latitudes and distances from 6 to 90 astronomical units (AU). We focus on the singularity multifractal spectrum before and after crossing the termination heliospheric shock by Voyager 2 at 84 AU from the Sun. In addition, we investigate here the parameters of the model that describe the asymmetry of the spectrum, depending on the solar cycle. It is worth noting that the spectrum is prevalently right-skewed inside the whole heliosphere. Moreover, we have possibly observed a change in the asymmetry of the spectrum at the termination shock. We show that the degree of multifractality is modulated by the solar activity. Hence these basic results also bring significant support to some earlier claims suggesting that the solar wind termination shock is asymmetric.

Description: A potential implicit particle method for high-dimensional systems Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 1047-1060, 2013 Author(s): B. Weir, R. N. Miller, and Y. H. Spitz This paper presents a particle method designed for high-dimensional state estimation. Instead of weighing random forecasts by their distance to given observations, the method samples an ensemble of particles around an optimal solution based on the observations (i.e., it is implicit). It differs from other implicit methods because it includes the state at the previous assimilation time as part of the optimal solution (i.e., it is a lag-1 smoother). This is accomplished through the use of a mixture model for the background distribution of the previous state. In a high-dimensional, linear, Gaussian example, the mixture-based implicit particle smoother does not collapse. Furthermore, using only a small number of particles, the implicit approach is able to detect transitions in two nonlinear, multi-dimensional generalizations of a double-well. Adding a step that trains the sampled distribution to the target distribution prevents collapse during the transitions, which are strongly nonlinear events. To produce similar estimates, other approaches require many more particles.

Description: Diurnal variation in gravity wave activity at low and middle latitudes Annales Geophysicae, 31, 2123-2135, 2013 Author(s): V. F. Andrioli, D. C. Fritts, P. P. Batista, B. R. Clemesha, and D. Janches We employ a modified composite day extension of the Hocking (2005) analysis method to study gravity wave (GW) activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere using 4 meteor radars spanning latitudes from 7° S to 53.6° S. Diurnal and semidiurnal modulations were observed in GW variances over all sites. Semidiurnal modulation with downward phase propagation was observed at lower latitudes mainly near the equinoxes. Diurnal modulations occur mainly near solstice and, except for the zonal component at Cariri (7° S), do not exhibit downward phase propagation. At a higher latitude (SAAMER, 53.6° S) these modulations are only observed in the meridional component where we can observe diurnal variation from March to May, and semidiurnal, during January, February, October (above 88 km) and November. Some of these modulations with downward phase progression correlate well with wind shear. When the wind shear is well correlated with the maximum of the variances the diurnal tide has its largest amplitudes, i.e., near equinox. Correlations exhibiting variations with tidal phases suggest significant GW-tidal interactions that have different characters depending on the tidal components and possible mean wind shears. Modulations that do not exhibit phase variations could be indicative of diurnal variations in GW sources.

Description: On the identification of Dragon Kings among extreme-valued outliers Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 549-561, 2013 Author(s): M. Riva, S. P. Neuman, and A. Guadagnini Extreme values of earth, environmental, ecological, physical, biological, financial and other variables often form outliers to heavy tails of empirical frequency distributions. Quite commonly such tails are approximated by stretched exponential, log-normal or power functions. Recently there has been an interest in distinguishing between extreme-valued outliers that belong to the parent population of most data in a sample and those that do not. The first type, called Gray Swans by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (often confused in the literature with Taleb's totally unknowable Black Swans), is drawn from a known distribution of the tails which can thus be extrapolated beyond the range of sampled values. However, the magnitudes and/or space–time locations of unsampled Gray Swans cannot be foretold. The second type of extreme-valued outliers, termed Dragon Kings by Didier Sornette, may in his view be sometimes predicted based on how other data in the sample behave. This intriguing prospect has recently motivated some authors to propose statistical tests capable of identifying Dragon Kings in a given random sample. Here we apply three such tests to log air permeability data measured on the faces of a Berea sandstone block and to synthetic data generated in a manner statistically consistent with these measurements. We interpret the measurements to be, and generate synthetic data that are, samples from α-stable sub-Gaussian random fields subordinated to truncated fractional Gaussian noise (tfGn). All these data have frequency distributions characterized by power-law tails with extreme-valued outliers about the tail edges.