ALBERT

Beschreibung: Kinematics of a mass movement constrained by sparse and inhomogeneous data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1609-1618, 2011 Author(s): M. Karbon, E. Brückl, E. Hegedüs, and A. Preh On 12 February 2008, a landslide occurred along a 50 m high bank of the Danube river near Dunaszekcsö, Hungary. The initial state is only incompletely documented and the geodetic data acquired after the mass movement are sparse. A generalized 3-D topographic model of the landslide and its surrounding area was assembled and a representative longitudinal profile extracted. The reconstruction of the original surface is based on an orthophoto as well as on morphological considerations. Recorded observations include the locations of the outcrops of basal sliding surfaces, displacements at the main scarp and in the lower part of the slide, and a value to describe the total mass transport. Such sparse and inhomogeneous data were insufficient to derive a comprehensive documentation of the landslide or obtain adequate constraints for an accurate numerical analysis. Therefore, slider block models were fitted to the field data, which have only a small number of free parameters. A general view on the morphology of the mass movement justifies its classification as a rotational slide. A double slider block model fits all observational parameters within their error margin and supplies valuable information on the geometry of the slide. Estimates of the residual friction angles were derived and the question of reactivation was addressed. Finite Difference (FD) modelling and the application of conventional stability analysis support the geometry of the slider blocks and the computed average residual friction angles. Generally, the results are assumed to represent preliminary information, which could only be attained by the combination of the thinly distributed geodetic data with qualitative morphological observations and the implementation of a model. This type of information can be gained quickly and may be valuable for preliminary hazard mitigation measures or the planning of a comprehensive exploration and monitoring program.

Beschreibung: North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation Ocean Science, 7, 389-404, 2011 Author(s): I. Medhaug and T. Furevik Output from a total of 24 state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models is analyzed. The models were integrated with observed forcing for the period 1850–2000 as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. All models show enhanced variability at multi-decadal time scales in the North Atlantic sector similar to the observations, but with a large intermodel spread in amplitudes and frequencies for both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The models, in general, are able to reproduce the observed geographical patterns of warm and cold episodes, but not the phasing such as the early warming (1930s–1950s) and the following colder period (1960s–1980s). This indicates that the observed 20th century extreme in temperatures are due to primarily a fortuitous phasing of intrinsic climate variability and not dominated by external forcing. Most models show a realistic structure in the overturning circulation, where more than half of the available models have a mean overturning transport within the observed estimated range of 13–24 Sverdrup. Associated with a stronger than normal AMOC, the surface temperature is increased and the sea ice extent slightly reduced in the North Atlantic. Individual models show potential for decadal prediction based on the relationship between the AMO and AMOC, but the models strongly disagree both in phasing and strength of the covariability. This makes it difficult to identify common mechanisms and to assess the applicability for predictions.

Beschreibung: The issue of uncertainty is the basis for any application of knowledge (“Uncertainty is an attribute of information.” From L. Zadeh, 2005) and has to be one of the main tasks in Earth’s systems study. Knowledge about natural systems may be only obtained by the analysis of the empirical (instrumental) data. Uncertainty starts from unveiling of the research task by the researcher. The main source of uncertainty comes from the natural system “extraction” (unit’s boundaries) for modeling and limitations of data representing both time and space variability. The consideration of uncertainty is placed in context of time and space with use of the U.S. part of the Great Lakes watershed as an example. All possible empirical (instrumental) data were used for this research. Data analysis was completed for river discharge, precipitation and air temperatures. Results of data analysis provide a base for regionalization, a multi-scaled description of the structure of river watersheds and their interaction with climate characteristics, and uncertainty of the obtained knowledge. The consideration of uncertainty in research helps practical applications like water balance estimations for conservation and/or management of water resources of different scales, and educating the public/communities about environmental issues.

Beschreibung: Sensitivity analysis of an ocean carbon cycle model in the North Atlantic: an investigation of parameters affecting the air-sea CO 2 flux, primary production and export of detritus Ocean Science, 7, 405-419, 2011 Author(s): V. Scott, H. Kettle, and C. J. Merchant The sensitivity of the biological parameters in a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) model in the calculation of the air-sea CO 2 flux, primary production and detrital export is analysed. We explore the effect on these outputs of variation in the values of the twenty parameters that control ocean ecosystem growth in a 1-D formulation of the UK Met Office HadOCC NPZD model used in GCMs. We use and compare the results from one-at-a-time and all-at-a-time perturbations performed at three sites in the EuroSITES European Ocean Observatory Network: the Central Irminger Sea (60° N 40° W), the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (49° N 16° W) and the European Station for Time series in the Ocean Canary Islands (29° N 15° W). Reasonable changes to the values of key parameters are shown to have a large effect on the calculation of the air-sea CO 2 flux, primary production, and export of biological detritus to the deep ocean. Changes in the values of key parameters have a greater effect in more productive regions than in less productive areas. The most sensitive parameters are generally found to be those controlling well-established ocean ecosystem parameterisations widely used in many NPZD-type models. The air-sea CO 2 flux is most influenced by variation in the parameters that control phytoplankton growth, detrital sinking and carbonate production by phytoplankton (the rain ratio). Primary production is most sensitive to the parameters that define the shape of the photosynthesis-irradiance curve. Export production is most sensitive to the parameters that control the rate of detrital sinking and the remineralisation of detritus.

Beschreibung: Management strategies aimed at rehabilitating degraded and cleared forests often rely on temporary or permanent exclusion of herbivores (wild animals, livestock or both). But in many cases, this simple management technique is not sufficient to induce ecosystem restoration: many negative effects keep the ecosystem in a suboptimal, low biomass state. The presence of such stable states requires restoration measures to act on multiple stress factors simultaneously.Compensating for all limiting factors is neither practically nor economically feasible. But detailed knowledge about the autoecology of tree species – i.e. their site requirements, regeneration strategies and recruitment dynamics – may be used to tailor management to the most pertinent problems. Here we illustrate this approach with results from forest restoration experiments in grazing exclosures in northern Ethiopia using African wild olive (Olea europaea ssp. cuspidata) as a representative Afromontane climax species.The recruitment of African wild olive is affected by seed limitation, restricted seed dispersal and germination and survival limitation. The exclusion of grazing animals as a single measure to restore forest is not enough. Degraded grazing land moves into a state dominated by persistent shrubs, arresting forest succession and discouraging local stakeholders. Direct sowing or planting of seedlings in fertile patches under selected pioneer shrubs, however, may help to overcome this form of bush encroachment, in particular during years with an above-average rainfall.

Beschreibung: The oceans’ carbon uptake substantially reduces the rate of anthropogenic carbon accumulation in the atmosphere1, and thus slows global climate change. Some diagnoses of trends in ocean carbon uptake have suggested a significant weakening in recent years2-8, while others conclude that decadal variability confounds detection of long-term trends9-11. Here, we study trends in observed surface ocean partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in three gyre-scale biomes of the North Atlantic, considering decadal to multidecadal timescales between 1981 and 2009. Trends on decadal timescales are of variable magnitudes and depend sensitively on the precise choice of years. As more years are considered, oceanic pCO2 trends begin to converge to the trend in atmospheric pCO2. North of 30oN, it takes 25 years for the influence of decadal-timescale climate variability to be overcome by a long-term trend that is consistent with the accumulation of anthropogenic carbon. In the permanently stratified subtropical gyre, warming has recently become a significant contributor to the observed increase in oceanic pCO2. This warming, previously attributed to both a multidecadal climate oscillation and anthropogenic climate forcing12,13, is beginning to reduce ocean carbon uptake.

Beschreibung: Theoretical basis for convective invigoration due to increased aerosol concentration Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, 5407-5429, 2011 Author(s): Z. J. Lebo and J. H. Seinfeld The potential effects of increased aerosol loading on the development of deep convective clouds and resulting precipitation amounts are studied by employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a detailed high-resolution cloud resolving model (CRM) with both detailed bulk and bin microphysics schemes. Both models include a physically-based activation scheme that incorporates a size-resolved aerosol population. We demonstrate that the aerosol-induced effect is controlled by the balance between latent heating and the increase in condensed water aloft, each having opposing effects on buoyancy. It is also shown that under polluted conditions, increases in the CCN number concentration reduce the cumulative precipitation due to the competition between the sedimentation and evaporation/sublimation timescales. The effect of an increase in the IN number concentration on the dynamics of deep convective clouds is small and the resulting decrease in domain-averaged cumulative precipitation is shown not to be statistically significant, but may act to suppress precipitation. It is also shown that even in the presence of a decrease in the domain-averaged cumulative precipitation, an increase in the precipitation variance, or in other words, andincrease in rainfall intensity, may be expected in more polluted environments, especially in moist environments. A significant difference exists between the predictions based on the bin and bulk microphysics schemes of precipitation and the influence of aerosol perturbations on updraft velocity within the convective core. The bulk microphysics scheme shows little change in the latent heating rates due to an increase in the CCN number concentration, while the bin microphysics scheme demonstrates significant increases in the latent heating aloft with increasing CCN number concentration. This suggests that even a detailed two-bulk microphysics scheme, coupled to a detailed activation scheme, may not be sufficient to predict small changes that result from perturbations in aerosol loading.

Beschreibung: Analysis of HCl and ClO time series in the upper stratosphere using satellite data sets Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, 5321-5333, 2011 Author(s): A. Jones, J. Urban, D. P. Murtagh, C. Sanchez, K. A. Walker, N. J. Livesey, L. Froidevaux, and M. L. Santee Previous analyses of satellite and ground-based measurements of hydrogen chloride (HCl) and chlorine monoxide (ClO) have suggested that total inorganic chlorine in the upper stratosphere is on the decline. We create HCl and ClO time series using satellite data sets extended to November 2008, so that an update can be made on the long term evolution of these two species. We use the HALogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) data for the HCl analysis, and the Odin Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (SMR) and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura-MLS) measurements for the study of ClO. Altitudes between 35 and 45 km and two mid-latitude bands: 30° S–50° S and 30° N–50° N, for HCl, and 20° S–20° N for ClO and HCl are studied. ACE-FTS and HALOE HCl anomaly time series (with QBO and seasonal contributions removed) are combined to produce all instrument average time series, which show HCl to be reducing from peak 1997 values at a linear estimated rate of −5.1 % decade −1 in the Northern Hemisphere and −5.2 % decade −1 in the Southern Hemisphere, while the tropics show a linear trend of −5.8 % per decade (although we do not remove the QBO contribution there due to sparse data). Trend values are significantly different from a zero trend at the 2 sigma level. ClO is decreasing in the tropics by −7.1 % ± 7.8 % decade −1 based on measurements made from December 2001 to November 2008. The statistically significant downward trend found in HCl after 1997 and the apparent downward ClO trend since 2001 (although not statistically significant) confirm how effective the 1987 Montreal protocol objectives and its amendments have been in reducing the total amount of inorganic chlorine.

Beschreibung: Bayesian statistical modeling of spatially correlated error structure in atmospheric tracer inverse analysis Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, 5365-5382, 2011 Author(s): C. Mukherjee, P. S. Kasibhatla, and M. West We present and discuss the use of Bayesian modeling and computational methods for atmospheric chemistry inverse analyses that incorporate evaluation of spatial structure in model-data residuals. Motivated by problems of refining bottom-up estimates of source/sink fluxes of trace gas and aerosols based on satellite retrievals of atmospheric chemical concentrations, we address the need for formal modeling of spatial residual error structure in global scale inversion models. We do this using analytically and computationally tractable conditional autoregressive (CAR) spatial models as components of a global inversion framework. We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to explore and fit these spatial structures in an overall statistical framework that simultaneously estimates source fluxes. Additional aspects of the study extend the statistical framework to utilize priors on source fluxes in a physically realistic manner, and to formally address and deal with missing data in satellite retrievals. We demonstrate the analysis in the context of inferring carbon monoxide (CO) sources constrained by satellite retrievals of column CO from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument on the TERRA satellite, paying special attention to evaluating performance of the inverse approach using various statistical diagnostic metrics. This is developed using synthetic data generated to resemble MOPITT data to define a proof-of-concept and model assessment, and then in analysis of real MOPITT data. These studies demonstrate the ability of these simple spatial models to substantially improve over standard non-spatial models in terms of statistical fit, ability to recover sources in synthetic examples, and predictive match with real data.

Beschreibung: Understanding evolution of product composition and volatility distribution through in-situ GC × GC analysis: a case study of longifolene ozonolysis Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, 5335-5346, 2011 Author(s): G. Isaacman, D. R. Worton, N. M. Kreisberg, C. J. Hennigan, A. P. Teng, S. V. Hering, A. L. Robinson, N. M. Donahue, and A. H. Goldstein A method for predicting volatility and polarity based on chromatographic information was developed and applied to the smog chamber ozonolysis of the sesquiterpene longifolene. The products were collected and analyzed using a GC × GC Thermal Desorption Aerosol Gas Chromatograph/Mass Spectrometer (2D-TAG) and a quadrupole Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS). All the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) was produced within the first half hour of the experiment. However, the oxidation level of the organic aerosol, as inferred from the fraction of ion m/z 44, suggested continued evolution of the SOA over the subsequent hours. Measurements of speciated organic compounds using 2D-TAG confirm that the composition of the particles changed over the course of the experiment. Nearly 200 oxidation products (thought to be mostly ketones and acids) were observed with 2D-TAG, but most could not be identified definitively due to a lack of standards and the absence of likely sesquiterpene oxidation products in available mass spectral databases. To categorize the observed products, the vapor pressure and oxygen-to-carbon ratio (O/C) of observed compounds were estimated based on their two-dimensional chromatographic retention times relative to those of known standards, establishing a retention time correlation (RTC) method for using 2D-TAG to better constrain important modelling parameters. The product distribution continuously evolved in volatility and oxygenation during 5 h of oxidation. Using peak area as the best available proxy for mass, we conclude that the product mixture includes many non-negligible products; the most abundant 3 compounds accounted for only half of the total observed peak area and 80 % of peak area was spread across 15 compounds. The data provide evidence for three conclusions: (1) 2D-TAG provides valuable volatility and oxygenation information even in the absence of definitive species identification, (2) complex particle-phase chemistry causes continued evolution of particle composition after new particles formation, and (3) minor products contribute significantly to SOA from the ozonolysis of longifolene.