ALBERT

Description: Since cirrus clouds have a substantial influence on the global energy balance that depends on their microphysical properties, climate models should strive to realistically characterize the cirrus ice particle size distribution (PSD), at least in a climatological sense. To date, the airborne in situ measurements of the cirrus PSD have contained large uncertainties due to errors in measuring small ice crystals (D〈60 m). This paper presents a method to remotely estimate the concentration of the small ice crystals relative to the larger ones using the 11- and 12- m channels aboard several satellites. By understanding the underlying physics producing the emissivity difference between these channels, this emissivity difference can be used to infer the relative concentration of small ice crystals. This is facilitated by enlisting temperature-dependent characterizations of the PSD (i.e., PSD schemes) based on in situ measurements. An average cirrus emissivity relationship between 12 and 11 m is developed here using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument and is used to retrieve the PSD based on six different PSD schemes. The PSDs from the measurement-based PSD schemes are compared with corresponding retrieved PSDs to evaluate differences in small ice crystal concentrations. The retrieved PSDs generally had lower concentrations of small ice particles, with total number concentration independent of temperature. In addition, the temperature dependence of the PSD effective diameter De and fall speed Vf for these retrieved PSD schemes exhibited less variability relative to the unmodified PSD schemes. The reduced variability in the retrieved De and Vf was attributed to the lower concentrations of small ice crystals in the retrieved PSD.

Description: Significant changes in the climates of Central America are expected over the next century. Lowland rainforests harbor high alpha diversity on local scales (〈1 km2), yet montane landscapes often support higher beta diversity on 10-100 km2 scales. Climate change will likely disrupt the altitudinal zonation of montane communities that produces such landscape diversity. Projections of biotic response to climate change have often used broad-scale modelling of geographical ranges, but understanding likely impacts on population viability is also necessary for anticipating local and global extinctions. We model species abundances and estimate range shifts for birds in the Tilaran Mountains of Costa Rica, asking whether projected changes in temperature and rainfall could be sufficient to imperil high-elevation endemics and whether these variables will likely impact communities similarly. We find that nearly half of 77 forest bird species can be expected to decline in the next century. Almost half of species projected to decline are endemic to Central America, and seven of eight species projected to become locally extinct are endemic to the highlands of Costa Rica and Panam . Logistic-regression modelling of distributions and similarity in projections produced by temperature and rainfall models suggest that changes in both variables will be important. Although these projections are probably conservative because they do not explicitly incorporate biological or climate variable interactions, they provide a starting point for incorporating more realistic biological complexity into community-change models. Prudent conservation planning for tropical mountains should focus on regions with room for altitudinal reorganization of communities comprised of ecological specialists.

Description: We present a climatology of O3, CO, and H2O for the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), based on a large collection of high ]resolution research aircraft data taken between 1995 and 2008. To group aircraft observations with sparse horizontal coverage, the UTLS is divided into three regimes: the tropics, subtropics, and the polar region. These regimes are defined using a set of simple criteria based on tropopause height and multiple tropopause conditions. Tropopause ]referenced tracer profiles and tracer ]tracer correlations show distinct characteristics for each regime, which reflect the underlying transport processes. The UTLS climatology derived here shows many features of earlier climatologies. In addition, mixed air masses in the subtropics, identified by O3 ]CO correlations, show two characteristic modes in the tracer ]tracer space that are a result of mixed air masses in layers above and below the tropopause (TP). A thin layer of mixed air (1.2 km around the tropopause) is identified for all regions and seasons, where tracer gradients across the TP are largest. The most pronounced influence of mixing between the tropical transition layer and the subtropics was found in spring and summer in the region above 380 K potential temperature. The vertical extent of mixed air masses between UT and LS reaches up to 5 km above the TP. The tracer correlations and distributions in the UTLS derived here can serve as a reference for model and satellite data evaluation

Description: Haywood et al. (2004) show that an aerosol layer above a cloud can cause a bias in the retrieved cloud optical thickness and effective radius. Monitoring for this potential bias is difficult because space ]based passive remote sensing cannot unambiguously detect or characterize aerosol above cloud. We show that cloud retrievals from aircraft measurements above cloud and below an overlying aerosol layer are a means to test this bias. The data were collected during the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment (INTEX-A) study based out of Portsmouth, New Hampshire, United States, above extensive, marine stratus cloud banks affected by industrial outflow. Solar Spectral Flux Radiometer (SSFR) irradiance measurements taken along a lower level flight leg above cloud and below aerosol were unaffected by the overlying aerosol. Along upper level flight legs, the irradiance reflected from cloud top was transmitted through an aerosol layer. We compare SSFR cloud retrievals from below ]aerosol legs to satellite retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in order to detect an aerosol ]induced bias. In regions of small variation in cloud properties, we find that SSFR and MODIS-retrieved cloud optical thickness compares within the uncertainty range for each instrument while SSFR effective radius tend to be smaller than MODIS values (by 1-2 microns) and at the low end of MODIS uncertainty estimates. In regions of large variation in cloud properties, differences in SSFR and MODIS ]retrieved cloud optical thickness and effective radius can reach values of 10 and 10 microns, respectively. We include aerosols in forward modeling to test the sensitivity of SSFR cloud retrievals to overlying aerosol layers. We find an overlying absorbing aerosol layer biases SSFR cloud retrievals to smaller effective radii and optical thickness while nonabsorbing aerosols had no impact.

Description: The goal of weather prediction is to provide information people and organizations can use to reduce weather-related losses and enhance societal benefits, including protection of life and property, public health and safety, and support of economic prosperity and quality of life. In economic terms, the benefit of the investment in public weather forecasts and warnings is substantial: the estimated annualized benefit is about $31.5 billion, compared to the $5.1 billion cost of generating the information. Between 1980 and 2009, 96 weather disasters in the United States each caused at least $1 billion in damages, with total losses exceeding $700 billion. Between 1999 and 2008, there were an average of 629 direct weather fatalities per year. The annual impacts of adverse weather on the national highway system and roads are staggering: 1.5 million weather-related crashes with 7,400 deaths, more than 700,000 injuries, and $42 billion in economic losses.

Description: An important objective for the Dual-wavelength Ku-/Ka-band Precipitation Radar (DPR) that will be on board the Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) core satellite, is to identify the phase state of hydrometeors along the range direction. To assess this, radar signatures are simulated in snow and rain to explore the relation between the differential frequency ratio (DFR), defined as the difference of radar reflectivity factors between Ku- and Ka-bands, and the radar reflectivity factor at Ku-band, ZKu, for different hydrometeor types. Model simulations indicate that there is clear separation between snow and rain in the ZKu-DFR plane assuming that the snow follows the Gunn-Marshall size distribution (1958) and rain follows the Marshall-Palmer size distribution (1948). In an effort to verify the simulated results, the data collected by the Airborne Second Generation Precipitation Radar (APR-2) in the Wakasa Bay AMSR-E campaign are employed. Using the signatures of Linear Depolarization Ratio (LDR) at Ku-band, the APR-2 data can be easily divided into the regions of snow, mixed phase and rain for stratiform storms. These results are then superimposed onto the theoretical curves computed from the model in the ZKu-DFR plane. It has been found that in 90% of the cases, snow and rain can be distinguished if the Ku-band radar reflectivity exceeds 18 dBZ (the minimum detectable level of GPM DPR at Ku-band). This is also the case for snow and mixed-phase hydrometeors. Although snow can be easily distinguished from rain and melting hydrometeors by using Ku- and Ka-band radar, the rain and mixed-phase particles are not always separable. It is concluded that Ku- and Ka-band dual-wavelength radar might provide a potential means to identify the phase state of hydrometeors.

Description: This is the second of a two-part study examining the simulated formation of Atlantic Hurricane Felix (2007) in a cloud-representing framework. Here several open issues are addressed concerning the formation of the storm's warm core, the evolution and respective contribution of stratiform versus convective precipitation within the parent wave's pouch, and the sensitivity of the development pathway reported in Part I to different model physics options and initial conditions. All but one of the experiments include ice microphysics as represented by one of several parameterizations, and the partition of convective versus stratiform precipitation is accomplished using a standard numerical technique based on the high-resolution control experiment. The transition to a warm-core tropical cyclone from an initially cold-core, lower tropospheric wave disturbance is analyzed first. As part of this transformation process, it is shown that deep moist convection is sustained near the pouch center. Both convective and stratiform precipitation rates increase with time. While stratiform precipitation occupies a larger area even at the tropical storm stage, deep moist convection makes a comparable contribution to the total rain rate at the pregenesis stage, and a larger contribution than stratiform processes at the storm stage. The convergence profile averaged near the pouch center is found to become dominantly convective with increasing deep moist convective activity there. Low-level convergence forced by interior diabatic heating plays a key role in forming and intensifying the near-surface closed circulation, while the midlevel convergence associated with stratiform precipitation helps to increase the midlevel circulation and thereby contributes to the formation and upward extension of a tropospheric-deep cyclonic vortex. Sensitivity tests with different model physics options and initial conditions demonstrate a similar pregenesis evolution. These tests suggest that the genesis location of a tropical storm is largely controlled by the parent wave's critical layer, whereas the genesis time and intensity of the protovortex depend on the details of the mesoscale organization, which is less predictable. Some implications of the findings are discussed.

Description: The formation of pre Hurricane Felix (2007) in a tropical easterly wave is examined in a two-part study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a high-resolution nested grid configuration that permits the representation of cloud system processes. The simulation commences during the wave stage of the precursor African easterly-wave disturbance. Here the simulated and observed developments are compared, while in Part II of the study various large-scale analyses, physical parameterizations, and initialization times are explored to document model sensitivities. In this first part the authors focus on the wave/vortex morphology, its interaction with the adjacent intertropical convergence zone complex, and the vorticity balance in the neighborhood of the developing storm. Analysis of the model simulation points to a bottom-up development process within the wave critical layer and supports the three new hypotheses of tropical cyclone formation proposed recently by Dunkerton, Montgomery, and Wang. It is shown also that low-level convergence associated with the ITCZ helps to enhance the wave signal and extend the "wave pouch" from the jet level to the top of the atmospheric boundary layer. The region of a quasi-closed Lagrangian circulation within the wave pouch provides a focal point for diabatic merger of convective vortices and their vortical remnants. The wave pouch serves also to protect the moist air inside from dry air intrusion, providing a favorable environment for sustained deep convection. Consistent with the authors' earlier findings, the tropical storm forms near the center of the wave pouch via system-scale convergence in the lower troposphere and vorticity aggregation. Components of the vorticity balance are shown to be scale dependent, with the immediate effects of cloud processes confined more closely to the storm center than the overturning Eliassen circulation induced by diabatic heating, the influence of which extends to larger radii.

Description: Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative effects. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative flux change between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative flux change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Absorption of black carbon aerosols is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings and, even more strongly, by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative fluxeswhen sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to a reduction in positive radiative flux.

Description: Physically-based passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithms require a set of relationships between satellite observed brightness temperatures (TB) and the physical state of the underlying atmosphere and surface. These relationships are typically non-linear, such that inversions are ill-posed especially over variable land surfaces. In order to better understand these relationships, this work presents a theoretical analysis using brightness temperature weighting functions to quantify the percentage of the TB resulting from absorption/emission/reflection from the surface, absorption/emission/scattering by liquid and frozen hydrometeors in the cloud, the emission from atmospheric water vapor, and other contributors. The results are presented for frequencies from 10 to 874 GHz and for several individual precipitation profiles as well as for three cloud resolving model simulations of falling snow. As expected, low frequency channels (〈89 GHz) respond to liquid hydrometeors and the surface, while the higher frequency channels become increasingly sensitive to ice hydrometeors and the water vapor sounding channels react to water vapor in the atmosphere. Low emissivity surfaces (water and snow-covered land) permit energy downwelling from clouds to be reflected at the surface thereby increasing the percentage of the TB resulting from the hydrometeors. The slant path at a 53deg viewing angle increases the hydrometeor contributions relative to nadir viewing channels and show sensitivity to surface polarization effects. The TB percentage information presented in this paper answers questions about the relative contributions to the brightness temperatures and provides a key piece of information required to develop and improve precipitation retrievals over land surfaces.