ALBERT

Description: Estimating site productivity in irregular structures is complicated by variations in stand density, structure, composition in mixed stands, and suppression experienced by subordinate trees. Our objective was to develop an alternate to site index (SI) and demonstrate its application in models of individual-tree and stand growth. We analyzed coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens (Lamb. ex D. Don) Endl.) tree and stand growth in a grid of 234 permanent sample plots covering a 110 ha study area in north coastal California. Partial harvesting created a mosaic of densities and openings throughout the 60-year-old redwood-dominated forest. Redwood SI was a poor predictor of volume increment (VI) per hectare among redwood in each plot over two decades after harvest. A new index of redwood basal area increment (BAI) productivity, calculated using inventory data for all stems in even-aged stands and the oldest cohort of multiaged stands, was a stronger predictor of VI. Diameter increment of individual redwood trees correlated strongly with stand density and the new BAI index. Forest managers should expect widely divergent responses following partial harvesting in crowded even-aged stands, with the greatest response coming from dominant redwoods with long crowns retained in areas with low residual stand density and high BAI index.

Description: Because of their rapid maneuverability, extended operational range, and improved personnel safety, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with vision-based systems have great potential for monitoring, detecting, and fighting forest fires. Over the last decade, UAV-based forest fire fighting technology has shown increasing promise. This paper presents a systematic overview of current progress in this field. First, a brief review of the development and system architecture of UAV systems for forest fire monitoring, detection, and fighting is provided. Next, technologies related to UAV forest fire monitoring, detection, and fighting are briefly reviewed, including those associated with fire detection, diagnosis, and prognosis, image vibration elimination, and cooperative control of UAVs. The final section outlines existing challenges and potential solutions in the application of UAVs to forest firefighting.

Description: Boreal peatlands in Canada comprise a substantial store of soil organic carbon (peat), and this peat is vulnerable to extensive burning during periods of extended drying. Increased frequency of extreme weather events in boreal regions is expected with future climate change, and the conditions that would support sustained smouldering peat combustion within peatlands may be more common. Organic soils tend to burn by smouldering combustion, a very slow-moving process in fuels such as those found in peatlands. Thus the most extreme conditions for carbon loss to the atmosphere due to the burning of peat likely occur when widespread propagation of flaming combustion leads to widespread initiation of smouldering. To investigate the potential for large-scale, high-intensity fire spread across forested bogs, we examined the fuel conditions in forested bogs necessary to support active crown fire. We measured surface and canopy fine fuels (those available to contribute to the propagating energy flux of the main flaming front) across a postfire chronosequence of forested boreal bog from central Alberta, Canada. We found that fuel load of fine surface material remained relatively constant across the chronosequence and at levels large enough to support crown fire initiation. Black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) regeneration begins to fill in the crown space with increasing time since disturbance and achieves crown bulk densities similar to black spruce upland forests. We estimated that after about 80 years, the black spruce canopy has developed enough available fuel to support active crown fire on between 10% to 40% of days in a typical fire season in central Alberta, Canada. Broad-scale propagation of high-intensity fire across a peatland when coincident with drought-induced lower moisture in deep peatland layers has the potential to lead to a substantial release of stored terrestrial carbon.

Description: Resource development can have significant consequences for the distribution of vegetation cover and for species persistence. Modelling changes to anthropogenic disturbance regimes over time can provide profound insights into the mechanisms that drive land cover change. We analyzed the spatial patterns of anthropogenic disturbance before and after a period of significant oil and gas extraction in two boreal forest subregions in Alberta, Canada. A spatially explicit model was used to map levels of anthropogenic forest crown mortality across 700 000 ha of managed forest over a 60-year period. The anthropogenic disturbance regime varied both spatially and temporally and was outside the historical range of variability characterized by regional fire regimes. Levels of live forest crown within anthropogenic disturbances declined and edge density increased following oil and gas development, whereas patch size varied regionally. In some places, anthropogenic disturbance generated profoundly novel landscapes with spatial patterns that had no historical analogue in the boreal system. The results illustrate that a shift in one sector of the economy can have dramatic outcomes on landscape structure. The results also suggest that any efforts to better align cumulative anthropogenic disturbance patterns with the historic baseline will almost certainly require a concerted and collaborative effort from all of the major stakeholders.

Description: A synthesis was carried out to examine Alaska’s boreal forest fire regime. During the 2000s, an average of 767 000 ha·year–1 burned, 50% higher than in any previous decade since the 1940s. Over the past 60 years, there was a decrease in the number of lightning-ignited fires, an increase in extreme lightning-ignited fire events, an increase in human-ignited fires, and a decrease in the number of extreme human-ignited fire events. The fraction of area burned from human-ignited fires fell from 26% for the 1950s and 1960s to 5% for the 1990s and 2000s, a result from the change in fire policy that gave the highest suppression priorities to fire events that occurred near human settlements. The amount of area burned during late-season fires increased over the past two decades. Deeper burning of surface organic layers in black spruce ( Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) forests occurred during late-growing-season fires and on more well-drained sites. These trends all point to black spruce forests becoming increasingly vulnerable to the combined changes of key characteristics of Alaska’s fire regime, except on poorly drained sites, which are resistant to deep burning. The implications of these fire regime changes to the vulnerability and resilience of Alaska’s boreal forests and land and fire management are discussed.

Description: In many recent studies, the value of forest inventory information in harvest scheduling has been examined. In a previous paper, we demonstrated that making measurement decisions for stands for which the harvest decision is uncertain simultaneously with the harvest decisions may be highly profitable. In that study, the quality of additional measurements was not a decision variable, and the only options were between making no measurements or measuring perfect information. In this study, we introduce data quality into the decision problem, i.e., the decisionmaker can select between making imperfect or perfect measurements. The imperfect information is obtained with a specific scenario tree formulation. Our decision problem includes three types of decisions: harvest decisions, measurement decisions, and decisions about measurement quality. In addition, the timing of the harvests and measurements must be decided. These decisions are evaluated based on two objectives: discounted aggregate income for the planning periods and the end value of the forest at the end of the planning horizon. Solving the bi-objective optimization problem formed using the ε-constraint method showed that imperfect information was mostly sufficient for the harvest timing decisions during the planning horizon but perfect information was required to meet the end-value constraint. The relative importance of the two objectives affects the measurements indirectly by increasing or decreasing the number of certain decisions (i.e., situations in which the optimal decision is identical in all scenarios).

Description: Broad-scale fire regime modelling is frequently based on large ecological and (or) administrative units. However, these units may not capture spatial heterogeneity in fire regimes and may thus lead to spatially inaccurate estimates of future fire activity. In this study, we defined homogeneous fire regime (HFR) zones for Canada based on annual area burned (AAB) and fire occurrence (FireOcc), and we used them to model future (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) fire activity using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). We identified a total of 16 HFR zones explaining 47.7% of the heterogeneity in AAB and FireOcc for the 1959–1999 period. MARS models based on HFR zones projected a 3.7-fold increase in AAB and a 3.0-fold increase in FireOcc by 2100 when compared with 1961–1990, with great interzone heterogeneity. The greatest increases would occur in zones located in central and northwestern Canada. Much of the increase in AAB would result from a sharp increase in fire activity during July and August. Ecozone- and HFR-based models projected relatively similar nationwide FireOcc and AAB. However, very high spatial discrepancies were noted between zonations over extensive areas. The proposed HFR zonation should help providing more spatially accurate estimates of future ecological patterns largely driven by fire in the boreal forest such as biodiversity patterns, energy flows, and carbon storage than those obtained from large-scale multipurpose classification units.

Description: This study investigates geographic patterns of genetic variation in aspen (Populus tremuloides Michaux.) spring phenology with the aim of understanding adaptation of populations to climatic risk environments and the practical application of guiding seed transfer. We use a classical common garden experiment to reveal genetic differences among populations from western Canada and Minnesota, and we present a novel method to seamlessly map heat-sum requirements from remotely sensed green-up dates. Both approaches reveal similar geographic patterns: we find low heat-sum requirements in northern and high-elevation aspen populations, allowing them to take full advantage of a short growing season. High heat-sum requirements were found in populations from the central boreal plains of Saskatchewan and Alberta, and populations from Minnesota exhibit moderately low heat-sum requirements for budbreak. Analysis of corresponding climate normal data shows that late budbreak is strongly associated with the driest winter and spring environments, which suggests selection pressures for late budbreak due to both frost and drought risks in early spring. We therefore caution against long-distance seed transfer of Minnesota provenances to the boreal plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Although such transfers have been shown to increase tree growth in short-term field tests, this planting material may be susceptible to exceptional spring droughts.

Description: The impact of root water uptake on duff (both fibric and humic horizons) moisture was investigated at deciduous, mixedwood, and conifer stands in Ontario, Canada. Roots were actively excluded from the duff layer using geotextiles inserted at the duff–mineral soil interface and along the plot edges; liquid and vapour water flow was otherwise not affected by the geotextiles. Root exclusion caused little difference in duff moisture content prior to early June, after which the root exclusion plots remained at 15%–20% volumetric water content, whereas root-intact plots declined to as low as 5% volumetric water content during rain-free periods. Only in the root-intact plots did the duff water content reach sufficiently low levels that duff evaporation was limited by low water content. The net effect of root exclusion was to reduce the cumulative growing season water loss in the duff by 19%–31%, depending on the stand type. Root exclusion also decreased the number of days with a high probability of duff smouldering from as many as 72 days·year−1 to as few as 0 days·year−1. This root exclusion experiment provides a model for short-term duff moisture transitions under thinned forests such as those forests under community wildfire protection.

Description: This paper attempts to address the question of how the value of the forest, the land, and the standing timber should be determined under the generalized Faustmann formula when the beginning and ending value of the land may be different. First, the formulas to determine the value of the forest and the land under such a situation were derived. These formulas were then used to separate the value of the trees from that of the forest. A comparison of the correctly determined valuations of the land against those obtained through a frequently used approximation method showed that at interest rates commonly used, the approximation method overestimates the land value and underestimates the value of the standing timber. Sensitivity analyses showed that higher future land value tends to affect the value of the land less at the beginning of the rotation and more at the end. Its impact on the value of the standing timber may or may not be affected, depending on whether the optimal harvest age is affected or not. Higher final harvest value and higher interest rate affect both the value of the land and the value of the standing timber throughout the entire rotation. Lastly, higher regeneration at the beginning of the rotation simply re-allocates the forest value between that of the land and that of the standing timber, reducing the former while increasing the latter.

Description: Large eddy simulation (LES) based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulators have obtained increasing attention in the wildland fire research community, as these tools allow the inclusion of important driving physics. However, due to the complexity of the models, individual aspects must be isolated and tested rigorously to ensure meaningful results. As wind is a driving force that can significantly dictate the behavior of a wildfire, the simulation of wind is studied in the context of a particular LES CFD model, the Wildland–urban interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS). As WFDS has yet to be tested extensively with regard to wind flow within and above forest canopies, a study of its ability to do so is carried out. First, three simulations are conducted using periodic boundary conditions. Two of these assume a spatially heterogeneous forest and one models wind downstream of a canopy edge. Second, two simulations are conducted with specified “inflow” conditions using two inflow profiles: one static and one dynamic (driven by a precursor simulation). Using periodic boundary conditions, the model is found to generate profiles of mean velocity and turbulent statistics that are representative of experimental measurements. The dynamic inflow scenario is found to perform better than the static case.

Description: Liming and wood-ash addition have long been used to attenuate the effects of acidic deposition on forest soils with the goal of promoting tree growth. We performed quantitative meta-analyses of treatment studies from managed forest ecosystems to assess general tendencies of effects of treatment on seven selected measures of performance thought to reasonably reflect the effects of Ca-addition treatment. We retrieved over 350 independent trials from 110 peer-reviewed liming and wood-ash addition studies that were integrated to determine soil pH, base saturation (BS), tree foliar Ca concentration, tree growth, ectomychorrhizae root colonization, soil C-to-N ratio, and microbial indices. The results were quantified through three separate meta-analysis effect size metrics: unweighted relative values and two weighted metrics, Hedges’ d and ln R. A surprising number of treatment trials (22%–85%) reported no significant effect, and soil pH and foliar Ca appeared more responsive to liming than to wood-ash addition, whereas BS and tree growth appeared more responsive to wood-ash addition. For six of the seven parameters, estimated mean effect sizes were similar in magnitude and positive in direction for all three meta-analysis metrics. Regression tree optimal models explained 38% of the variation in pH, 47% of the variation in BS, 51% of the variation in foliar Ca concentration, and 26% of the variation in tree growth. The largest predictors of effect size, within our selected group, were as follows: soil type for pH; soil type, trial duration in years, and species (hardwood or softwood) for BS; treatment dose and type for foliar Ca concentration; and trial duration, initial soil pH, and tree species for tree growth. This analysis shows that Ca additions are not universally beneficial and provides insight into when Ca additions to forest soils are likely to be most effective.

Description: There is increasing recognition that forestry provides a low cost and robust means of climate change abatement through carbon sequestration and substitution. However, current understanding of forest ecosystem carbon exchange and forest–atmosphere interactions are often inadequately characterized by existing empirical growth models with resulting poor representation for regional extrapolations. In this paper, we describe the parameterisation and independent validation, against both eddy covariance and forest growth experimental data, of a process-oriented model 3PGN to provide assessments of carbon sequestration of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carrière) plantations across Scotland. In comparison with eddy covariance measurements, the model predicted all of the major annual carbon fluxes, i.e., gross primary production (PG), net ecosystem production (PE), and ecosystem respiration (RE), with biases lower than 10%. At a monthly time step, only PG and PE were accurately estimated, whereas RE was not. At longer time scales (i.e., several decades), the model reliably represented the major patterns of the carbon balance. Soil type was identified as the important factor influencing site productivity; fertilization practices did not alter long-term site nutritional status. The analyses also highlighted the potential impact of carbon loss from carbon-rich soils, which can result in differences between optimal rotation length for carbon sequestration and for timber production.

Description: Trees form the terrestrial interface with the atmosphere in forested regions. The electrical properties of trees may influence their response to atmospheric conditions and potentially lethal phenomena (e.g., lightning). We review the literature describing electrical properties of trees and provide a tabular summary of the methods and goals of each study. We hypothesized that electrical resistivity varies consistently among species and between growth forms. We surveyed resistivity of eight tree and three vine species in Michigan and Kentucky, and we quantified resistivity over a moisture gradient for wood blocks of four tree species. Resistivity varied predictably with stem diameter and differed among species and growth forms. Specifically, resistivity of trees was approximately 200% higher than resistivity of vines, and resistivity of conifers was 135% higher than that of hardwoods. The regional comparison showed no difference in resistivity of red maple (Acer rubrum L.) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) between Michigan and Kentucky. These results, in combination with interspecific differences observed among wood blocks, suggest that there is a phylogenetic basis for variation in resistivity that reflects differences in anatomy and physiology. Our review and empirical survey provide a framework for studying the ecological effects of lightning in the context of the electrical properties of trees.

Description: Understanding of the natural factors that lead to complex changes in forest ecosystems is limited. Worldwide, there are only a few forests as pristine and isolated as the Sierra de La Laguna in the southernmost range of the arid Baja California, Mexico. Its outstanding trait as a model system is that anthropogenic stressors are notably absent, which facilitates the study of natural ecological processes of the forest because separating human-induced ecological changes from natural ones is not a simple matter. In this study, we sampled sites and defined vegetation units on the basis of dominance of the canopy by the main tree species. We identified three forest types: the pine and encino forests that occupy the higher areas and the roble forest at lower elevations. For each living tree in the sampling plots, we measured height, canopy coverage per tree, diameter at breast height, as well as the amount of deadwood, leaf litter, and abundance of young trees. A succesional competition occurs between Pinus and Quercus sensu lato; we conclude that the encino forest represents a climax condition, the pine type represents an early succesional stage, and the roble forest type is a simple climax community.

Description: The influence of forest ecology and strategic planning has increased in importance to support the management of mixed-species forests to enhance biodiversity. However, little is known about competitive and facilitative interactions between trees and species in mixed fir–beech–spruce forests, mostly because of a lack of long-term experimental research. In the 1960s, long-term sample plots were established in the Western Carpathians to develop region-specific yield models. Trees in the plots were measured at 5- to 16-year intervals from 1967(69). In 2010, the positions of standing trees in all plots were identified spatially. Stump positions were also identified to record the coordinates of trees that had been removed or had died. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the applicability of widely used competition indices for mature fir–beech–spruce mixed forests and to test whether the tree competition zone changes among species and forest stands of different stocking densities. Results showed that the best competition index was based on the comparison of the basal area of competitors and the subject tree in the radius, which was defined as a function of stand density and species. In addition, beech was found to be a strong self-competitor, which was not the case for silver fir (Abies alba Mill.). Results suggest that simpler competition indices are better suited for such diverse forests, as more complex indices do not describe the competition interactions sufficiently well.

Description: The parsimonious taper function proposed by Riemer et al. (1995. Allg. Forst.- Jagdztg. 166(7): 144–147) was fitted for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) stems in Spain by using a nonlinear mixed modelling approach. Eight candidate models (all possible expansion combinations of the three fixed parameters with random effects) were assessed, and the mixed model with three random effects performed the best according to the goodness-of-fit statistics. An evaluation data set was used to assess the performance of these models in predicting stem diameter along the bole, as well as total stem volume. Four prediction approaches were compared: one subject (tree) specific (SS) and three population specific (ordinary least squares (OLS), mean (M), and population averaged (PA)). The SS responses for a tree were estimated from a prior stem diameter measurement available for that tree, whereas OLS, M, and PA were obtained from the fixed-effects model, from the fixed parameters of mixed-effects models, and by computing mean predictions from the mixed-effects models over the distribution of random effects, respectively. Prediction errors were greater for the M and PA responses than for the OLS response, and therefore, from the prediction point of view, the use of the mixed-effects models is not recommended when an additional stem diameter measurement is not available. The mixed model with three random effects was also selected as the best model for SS estimations. Measurement of an additional stem diameter at a relative tree height of approximately 0.5 provided the best calibrations for stem diameters along the bole and total stem volume predictions. The SS approach increased the flexibility and efficiency of the selected mixed-effects model for localized predictions and thus improved the overall predictive capacity of the base model.

Description: Duff fires (smouldering in fermentation and humus forest floor horizons) and their consequences have been documented in fire-excluded ecosystems but with little attention to their underlying drivers. Duff characteristics influence the ignition and spread of smouldering fires, and their spatial patterns on the forest floor may be an important link to the heterogeneity of consumption observed following fires. We evaluated fuel bed characteristics (depths, bulk densities, and moisture) of duff in a long-unburned longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) forest and corresponding spatial variation across 100to 103m scales. Fermentation and humus horizon depths both varied (∼100% coefficient of variation) but with moderate to strong spatial autocorrelation at fine scales. Fermentation bulk density varied less than humus bulk density, which varied considerably at fine scales. Fermentation horizons held more moisture (average 49%–172%) and were much more variable than humus following rainfall, which remained stable and relatively dry (average 28%–62%). Humus moisture was moderately autocorrelated at fine scales, but fermentation moisture was highly variable, showing no evidence of spatial autocorrelation under dry, intermediate, or wet conditions. Observations from this study highlight the underlying spatial variability in duff, informing future sampling and fire management efforts in these long-unburned coniferous forests.

Description: Forest structure, as measured by the physical arrangement of trees and their crowns, is a fundamental attribute of forest ecosystems that changes as forests progress through suc;cessional stages. We examined whether LiDAR data could be used to directly assess the successional stage of forests by determining the degree to which the LiDAR data would show the same relative ranking of structural development among sites as would traditional field measurements. We sampled 94 primary and secondary sites (19–93, 223–350, and 600 years old) from three conifer forest zones in western Washington state, USA, in the field and with small-footprint, discrete return LiDAR. Seven sets of LiDAR metrics were tested to measure canopy structure. Ordinations using the of LiDAR 95th percentile height, rumple, and canopy density metrics had the strongest correlations with ordinations using two sets of field metrics (Procrustes R = 0.72 and 0.78) and a combined set of LiDAR and field metrics (Procrustes R = 0.95). These results suggest that LiDAR can accurately characterize forest successional stage where field measurements are not available. This has important implications for enabling basic and applied studies of forest structure at stand to landscape scales.

Description: Sustainable forest management requires timely, detailed forest inventory data across large areas, which is difficult to obtain via traditional forest inventory techniques. This study evaluated k-nearest neighbor imputation models incorporating LiDAR data to predict tree-level inventory data (individual tree height, diameter at breast height, and species) across a 12 100 ha study area in northeastern Oregon, USA. The primary objective was to provide spatially explicit data to parameterize the Forest Vegetation Simulator, a tree-level forest growth model. The final imputation model utilized LiDAR-derived height measurements and topographic variables to spatially predict tree-level forest inventory data. When compared with an independent data set, the accuracy of forest inventory metrics was high; the root mean square difference of imputed basal area and stem volume estimates were 5 m2·ha–1 and 16 m3·ha–1, respectively. However, the error of imputed forest inventory metrics incorporating small trees (e.g., quadratic mean diameter, tree density) was considerably higher. Forest Vegetation Simulator growth projections based upon imputed forest inventory data follow trends similar to growth projections based upon independent inventory data. This study represents a significant improvement in our capabilities to predict detailed, tree-level forest inventory data across large areas, which could ultimately lead to more informed forest management practices and policies.

Description: Characteristics of annual rings are reliable indicators of growth and wood quality in trees. The main objective of our study was to model the variation in annual ring attributes due to intensive silviculture and inherent regional differences in climate and site across a wide geographic range of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco). Ring specific gravity and ring width of Douglas-fir were examined at five long-term Levels-Of-Growing-Stock (LOGS) installations, three in the US and two in Canada, covering a latitudinal gradient between 43°N and 50°N. At each location, increment cores were collected from replicated plots with three levels of stocking: control (unthinned), lightly thinned (70% basal area retention), and heavily thinned (30% basal area retention). X-ray densitometry analysis provided ring specific gravity and width profiles for 5676 rings from 134 trees. The reduction of stand density through repeated entries resulted in decreased ring specific gravity and increased ring width. A four-parameter mixed-effects logistic model was used to predict ring specific gravity using cambial age, stand density (as number of stems per hectare), and two climatic variables: average temperature from March to May and total precipitation from April to August. A three-parameter mixed-effects logistic model was used to predict ring width using cambial age, stand density (as stand density index), and total climatic moisture deficit of June and July. Both models indicated significant site differences that were included in the models through indicator variables. Ring specific gravity increased slightly with increasing average temperature from March to May and decreasing total precipitation from April to August. Predictions of ring specific gravity of Douglas-fir appear to be more sensitive to changes in temperature compared with changes in precipitation.

Description: Radial patterns of modulus of elasticity (MOE) were examined for white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) and trembling aspen (Populus tremuoides Michx.) from 19 mature, uneven-aged stands in the boreal mixedwood region of northern Alberta, Canada. The main objectives were to (1) evaluate the relationship between pith-to-bark changes in MOE and cambial age or distance from pith; (2) develop species-specific models to predict pith-to-bark changes in MOE; and (3) to test the influences of radial growth, relative vertical height, and tree slenderness (tree height/DBH) on MOE. For both species, cambial age was selected as the best explanatory variable with which to build pith-to-bark models of MOE. For white spruce and trembling aspen, the final nonlinear mixed-effect models indicated that an augmented rate of increase in MOE occurred with increasing vertical position within the tree. For white spruce trees, radial growth and slenderness were found to positively influence maximum estimated MOE. For trembling aspen, there was no apparent effect of vertical position or radial growth on maximum MOE. The results shed light on potential drivers of radial patterns of MOE and will be useful in guiding silvicultural prescriptions.

Description: In 2009, the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI) turned from a periodic into an annual measurement design in which only one-ninth of the overall sample of permanent plots is measured every year. The reduction in sample size due to the implementation of the annual design results in an unacceptably large increase in variance when using the standard simple random sampling estimator. Thus, a flexible estimation procedure using two- and three-phase regression estimators is presented with a special focus on utilizing updating techniques to account for disturbances and growth and is applied to the second and third Swiss NFIs. The first phase consists of a dense sample of systematically distributed plots on a 500 m × 500 m grid for which auxiliary variables are obtained through the interpretation of aerial photographs. The second phase is an eightfold looser subgrid with terrestrial plot data collected from the past inventory, and the third and final phase consists of the three most recent annual subgrids with the current state of the target variable (stem volume). The proposed three-phase estimators reduce the increase in variance from 294% to 145% compared with the estimator based on the full periodic sample while remaining unbiased.

Description: Over the last decades, continuous signs of sugar maple ( Acer saccharum Marsh.) dieback in stands of northeastern North America have promoted the experimentation of corrective measures to restore sugar maple vitality. To verify the hypothesis that K–Mg antagonism may have limited the full response of sugar maple to dolomitic lime application in a previous experiment (CaMg(CO3)2, 12% Mg), two Ca fertilizers (CaCO3 and CaSO4·2H2O), having negligible Mg content, were applied at rates of 1, 2, and 4 t Ca·ha–1 on sugar maple trees adjacent to the limed area. After 3 years, most of the foliar nutrient concentrations of treated trees were improved, particularly Ca, for both Ca fertilizers, in line with published ranges for healthy sugar maple trees, except for Mg. Moreover, no persistent nutrient antagonism was observed. The crown dieback rate of treated sugar maple was ≤5.8% after 3 years, while it reached 12% for the controls. Also, relative basal area growth showed that both Ca sources can improve growth rate. Growth response following Ca treatments was, however, lower than for the former lime experiment after the same period of time. In this context, our results suggest that Mg nutrition could be more important for sugar maple in this ecosystem than initially thought.

Description: Soil compaction often limits conifer regeneration on sites degraded by landings and roads, but inadequate understanding of the relationship between compaction and tree growth could lead to inappropriate soil conservation and rehabilitation efforts. We tested liquid and plastic limits, oxidizable organic matter, total carbon, particle size distribution, and iron and aluminum oxides on soil samples collected from five forest experiments in interior British Columbia. These data were used to estimate soil maximum bulk density (MBD) and relative bulk density (RBD); our objective was to relate RBD to tree growth. Height of interior Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca (Bessin) Franco) was limited when RBD was 〉0.72. For lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) and hybrid white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss × Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.), RBDs of 0.60–0.68 corresponded to maximum height, whereas RBDs of 0.78–0.87 appeared to limit height growth. The presence of surface organic material mitigated compaction and was often associated with lower RBD. Our results illustrate the usefulness of RBD to assess compaction and suggest that soil rehabilitation should be considered on disturbed sites where soil RBD is 〉0.80.

Description: Lightning strikes millions of trees worldwide each year, yet structured lightning damage surveys are relatively rare. Estimates drawn from the literature suggest that lightning directly or indirectly kills up to 4% of large canopy trees in a stand annually. Lightning is a major cause of death for pines in southeastern US forests and for large cacti in some deserts, but its landscape-level effects exclusive of fire at higher latitudes are poorly known. We quantified damage to trees from lightning and other sources in hemlock–hardwood forests of the Huron Mountain Region of Michigan, USA. This region receives ca. 100 cloud-to-ground lightning flashes per year, with most occurring in May to August. We recorded abiotic and biotic damage on 309 trees distributed among nine transects, each 〉2 km long. None of the transect trees had lightning scars, and we observed only 14 clear cases of lightning damage among thousands of trees examined during associated meander surveys (each ca. 0.5 ha). This damage was more commonly associated with emergent stature (50% of struck trees) and higher rates of biotic damage (50%) than we observed in the 309 transect trees (22% emergent status and 16% incidence of biotic damage). Nearly all (93%) of the lightning damaged trees were conifers, suggesting that either susceptibility to, or response to, lightning strikes has a phylogenetic basis. These preliminary results provide a foundation for comparative studies in other forests. Accurate quantification of lightning-induced tree mortality will improve forest turnover models and facilitate predictions of future forest structure under conditions of increased lightning frequency.

Description: Constraints of the physical environment affect forest growth and forest operations. At a local scale, these constraints are generally considered during forest operations. At regional or continental scales, they are often integrated to larger assessments of the potential for a given land unit to be managed. In this study, we propose an approach to analyze the integration of physical-environment constraints in forest management activities at the regional scale (482 000 km2). The land features that pose constraints to forest management (i.e., hydromorphic organic deposits, dead-ice moraines, washed till, glacial block fields, talus, and active aeolian deposits, slopes 〉 40%) were evaluated within 1114 land districts. To distinguish land districts that can be suitably managed from those where constraints are too important for sustainable timber production, we carried out a sensitivity analysis of physical constraints for the 1114 land districts. After analysis of two portions of the study area under management, a land district was considered suitable for management when more than 20% of its land area consists of features imposing few constraints or, for mountain-type relief districts, when more than 40% of the land area consists of features imposing few constraints. These cutoff values were defined by expert opinion, based on sensitivity analyses performed on the entire study area, on analyses of two different sectors with different types of constraints and on a strong understanding of the study area. Our results show that land districts where the physical environment posed significant constraints covered 7.5% of the study area (36 000 km2). This study shows that doing an a priori classification of land units based on permanent environmental features could facilitate the identification of areas that are not suitable for forest management activities.

Description: Over the period 1883–2013, recruitment of subalpine limber pine (Pinus flexilis E. James) and Great Basin bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva D.K. Bailey) above the upper tree line, below the lower tree line, and across middle-elevation forest borders occurred at localized sites across four mountain ranges in the western Great Basin. A synchronous pulse at all ecotones occurred between 1963 and 2000 (limber pine) and between 1955 and 1978 (bristlecone pine) when pines expanded 225 m beyond forest borders. Little recruitment occurred before this interval or in the 21st century. No obvious environmental factors distinguished recruitment locations from nonrecruitment locations. Where their ranges overlap, limber pine has leapfrogged above bristlecone pine by 300 m. Limber pine tree-ring chronologies, developed to compare radial-growth responses with recruitment, showed dominant pulses of increased growth during the same interval as recruitment. Significant climate correlations of growth and recruitment indicated lead and lag effects as much as 6 years and complex relationships with climate variables, corroborating the importance of cumulative climate effects relative to any single year. Water relations were the most important drivers of growth and recruitment and interacted with growing-season minimum and maximum temperatures. These results underscore the importance of studying ecotones at all margins when evaluating conifer response to climate change.

Description: Most hypotheses about controls over high-altitude forests, including treeline, the elevation for upright woody plants, or timberline, the upper elevation for aggregated forest, suggest that low temperature drives forest dynamics, either through effects on cell division and tree growth or indirectly through frost damage or nutrient availability. However, abiotic factors other than temperature, including water availability, may serve as other important controls at high elevations, particularly for seedlings. To test the hypothesis that the timing and amount of precipitation exerts a strong control over the high-elevation forest boundary on the Wasatch Plateau in central Utah, USA, we conducted a field experiment that manipulated water availability and monitored photosynthesis, growth, and survivorship in Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm. seedlings. Survivorship increased from the driest to the wettest conditions, whereas the timing of precipitation did not explain differences in survival. However, we found that large, infrequent rain events increased maximum photosynthetic flux density compared with small, frequent rain events. Our results highlight the potential role of growing season water availability in limiting timberline expansion below the low-temperature thermal limits of P. engelmannii. As a consequence, the infilling of trees below the treeline in this region in response to climate change is likely to be episodic and driven by multiyear periods of high water availability and frequency that overcome drought limitations.

Description: European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is an economically and ecologically important forest tree species in Europe. Expected future temperature increases due to global climate change may significantly affect growth of beech trees and consequently influence carbon cycling in beech forests. We tested the hypothesis that soil temperature influences the growth of both belowground and aboveground parts of beech seedlings. One-year-old seedlings were transferred into rhizotrons and subjected to two different soil temperatures for 2 years while the soil moisture level was kept constant. The main effect of the soil temperature was a changed biomass of the woody part of the seedlings. Soil temperature significantly influenced the biomass of shoots and roots and diameter of the stem, which were the highest for the seedlings grown in conditions of soil temperatures maintained in the range of summer soil temperatures from the site of origin of the seedlings. Increased soil temperature also resulted in increased specific root length and specific root tip density. Root-to-shoot ratio and leaf parameters (leaf mass, number of leaves, and specific leaf area), except for leaf area ratio, were not influenced by soil temperature.

Description: Soil disturbance from organic matter loss and soil compaction can impair site productivity, but less is known about whether these disturbances also affect forest health (defined here as the presence and severity of damaging pests and diseases, mortality, and overall vigour). We used six long-term soil productivity (LTSP) sites in the interior of British Columbia, Canada to test the effects of organic-matter removal and soil compaction on forest health, and to explore the relationship between forest health response and potential indicators of site sensitivity: mineral soil pH, base saturation, carbon to nitrogen ratio (C:N), carbon to phosphorus ratio (C:P), and calcium to aluminum ratio (Ca:Al). Visual forest health surveys were conducted on 5400 15 and 20 year old lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) trees. Soil disturbance treatments significantly affected forest health metrics, but this response typically differed among sites. Principle component analyses indicated the response of healthy trees was negatively related to soil base saturation, the response of dead or dying trees related to soil C:P, and the response of tree disease related to soil Ca:Al, pH, base saturation, and C:N. We found forest health response to soil disturbance varied among sites with relationships between response and soil chemical properties, suggesting a greater vulnerability of pine stands to disease with increasing soil acidity.

Description: A novel “varying-centroid” method is presented for predicting whole-tree, aboveground stem volume (i.e., bole plus branch volume) to bole volume ratios from changes in the centroid of tree bole volume associated with branching of the bole. The method was derived from a simple fractal-like tree model based on a conceptualization of tree branching architecture by Leonardo da Vinci. The method recognizes that the centroid of bole volume (the point at which one half of bole volume is above and one half is below) is always lower than the centroid of whole-tree volume and that shifts in the centroid of bole volume should be predictably related to the size of a tree’s crown. The method assumes that branch-displaced bole volume profiles can be compared with reference bole profiles that are not significantly influenced by branching, at the centroid of bole volume, and that the magnitude of bole centroid displacement predicts the branch volume necessary to cause it. When the method was applied to hardwood trees representing diverse species, sizes, and stand conditions across Michigan, the centroid of bole volume was found to vary predictably with measurable tree crown attributes and bole plus branch wood to bole wood volume ratios were generally predicted within 10% of the true value using the new method.

Description: Because of the importance of seed surface area, volume, and fill to hydraulic and thermal exchanges with the soil, mechanistic simulation of seed physiological processes associated with tree migration dynamics and the spread of invasive species require accurate equations to model seed shape. Seed dimensions have previously been described with measurements of the three principal axes, assuming an implied single ellipsoid. However, conifer seeds often exhibit anisotropy that results from bilaterally symmetric pairing on cone scales. We developed a method for measuring and modeling conifer seed shape as a sum of 2jpartial ellipsoids fused at their equators, where j = 0, …, 3. We demonstrate the use of the methods in the study of shape characteristics of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa P.& C. Lawson) seeds from four families in Montana and among commercial lots of ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.), and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco). The shapes of 92%, 73%, and 47% of seeds in commercial lots studied had eight unique ellipsoids when classified with 1%, 5%, and 10% difference classification rules, respectively. Ponderosa pine seeds with longer minor axes were less well filled with storage reserves. Three-dimensional surface areas of lodgepole and ponderosa pine were approximately 2 and 3.4 times larger, respectively, than previously reported one-sided surface areas.

Description: Small-scale disturbance is a significant process in all major forest biomes. Some silvicultural practices, particularly group selection harvesting, intend to emulate natural small-scale disturbance by harvesting small clearcuts in the continuous forest. We conducted a meta-analysis on the effects of small-scale harvesting on North American breeding forest birds. We extracted species richness and relative abundance of several functional bird groups and guilds from published studies and compared them between gap-dominated and unlogged forest as a function of forest type and the size and age of the gap. The abundance of many bird groups was higher in the gap-dominated than in the continuous forest. Species preferring interior parts of the forest had the most negative association with the presence of gaps but this relationship was not statistically significant. Abundances of many bird groups increased with increasing gap size, while its effect on abundance of some bird groups disappeared quickly. Our review suggests that silvicultural practices that bring about small gaps do not negatively affect the abundances of most forest birds and often even enhance it. However, more studies are needed to examine optimal size and abundance of gaps in a forest and whether emulated small-scale disturbance effectively mimics natural processes.

Description: Individual tree heights are needed in many situations, including estimation of tree volume, dominant height, and simulation of tree growth. However, height measurements are tedious compared to tree diameter measurements, and therefore height–diameter (H–D) models are commonly used for prediction of tree height. Previous studies have fitted H–D models using approaches that include plot-specific predictors in the models and those that do not include them. In both these approaches, aggregation of the observations to sample plots has usually been taken into account through random effects, but this has not always been done. In this paper, we discuss four alternative model formulations and report an extensive comparison of 16 nonlinear functions in this context using a total of 28 datasets. The datasets represent a wide range of tree species, regions, and ecological zones, consisting of about 126 000 measured trees from 3717 sample plots. Specific R-functions for model fitting and prediction were developed to enable such an extensive model fitting and comparison. Suggestions on model selection, model fitting procedures, and prediction are given and interpretation of the predictions from different models are discussed. No uniformly best function, model formulation, or model fitting procedure was found. However, a 2-parameter Näslund and Curtis function provided satisfactory fit in most datasets for the plot-specific H–D relationship. Model fitting and height imputation procedures developed for this study are provided in an R-package for later use.

Description: A major challenge in studies estimating stand water use in mixed-species forests is how to effectively scale data from individual trees to the stand. This is the case for forest ecosystems in the northeastern USA where differences in water use among species and across different size classes have not been extensively studied, despite their relevance for a wide range of ecosystem services. Our objectives were to assess the importance of different sources of variability on transpiration upscaling and explore the potential impacts of future shifts in species composition on the forest water budget. We measured sap velocity in five tree species (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh., Acer rubrum L., Acer saccharum Marsh., Betula alleghaniensis Britton, and Betula papyrifera Marsh.) in a mature stand and a young stand in New Hampshire, USA. Our results showed that the greatest potential source of error was radial variability and that tree size was more important than species in determining sap velocity. Total sapwood area was demonstrated to exert a strong controlling influence on transpiration, varying depending on tree size and species. We conclude that the effect of potential species shifts on transpiration will depend on the sap velocity, determined not only by radial variation and tree size, but also by the sapwood area distribution in the stand.

Description: A system of equations for compatible prediction of total and merchantable volumes that allows for different definitions of tree volume was developed in this study. The use of the developed system will allow the conversion and subsequent comparison of results from forest inventories using different definitions of tree volume (e.g., including or not the top material of the tree and (or) the stump, inside or outside bark). The compatibility between taper, total volume, and volume ratio equations is ensured by properly integrating the taper equation. The diameter under the bark at any height is modeled with the Demaerschalk taper equation, and the corresponding diameter over the bark is obtained by assuming that bark thickness is also modeled with Demaerschalk’s function. The set of equations that has contemporaneous cross-equation error correlation (known as nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression equations) was fit using nonlinear joint generalized least squares regression. The predictive ability was evaluated using an independent data set. The system is consistent and performs well when applied to maritime pine ( Pinus pinaster Ait.) trees in Portugal, showing better performance than do other total volume equations for maritime pine used in the latest Portuguese national forest inventories.

Description: Alterations to forest canopy structure directly affect the hydrology and biogeochemistry of wooded ecosystems. Epiphytes alter canopy structure, thereby intercepting rainwater, reducing penetration of rain to the surface (as throughfall), modifying throughfall chemistry, and changing throughfall responses to storm conditions. These processes are well established for epiphyte presence versus absence; yet, it is unknown how epiphyte–throughfall interactions change across an epiphyte cover continuum (important information for prediction of ecological changes with epiphyte establishment or decline from disturbance). To fill this gap, we monitored throughfall water and dissolved ions (Na+, NH4+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl–, NO3–, PO43–, SO42–) beneath a common epiphyte (Tillandsia usneoides L.) across cover percentages (0%–20%, 21%–40%, 41%–60%, 61%–80%, 81%–100%) for 47 storms. Throughfall amount inversely responded to epiphyte cover while increasing salt wash-off and intracellular leaching. Greater epiphyte cover released NH4+ and decreased NO3– from throughfall. Storm conditions (high vapor pressure deficit, moderate wind speeds, and low intensity) strengthened throughfall responses as T. usneoides cover increased. Factorial MANOVA results revealed significant trends for throughfall ion enrichment or depletion via wash-off, leaching, and uptake. These data suggest that inclusion of epiphyte alterations to rainwater and solute inputs in ecosystem nutrient budgeting studies should consider the full continuum of epiphyte cover represented at that site.

Description: Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) is a major plantation species grown in the southern United States, producing wood having a multitude of uses including pulp and lumber production. Specific gravity (SG) is an important property used to measure the quality of wood produced, and it varies regionally and within the tree with height and radius. SG at different height levels was measured from 407 trees representing 135 plantations across the natural range of loblolly pine. A three-segment quadratic model and a semiparametric model were proposed to explain the vertical and regional variations in SG. Both models were in agreement that a stem can be divided into three segments based on the vertical variation in SG. Based on the fitted models, the mean trend in SG of trees from the southern Atlantic Coastal Plain and Gulf Coastal Plain was observed to be higher than in other physiographical regions (Upper Coastal Plain, Hilly Coastal Plain, northern Atlantic Coastal Plain, and Piedmont). Maps showing the regional variation in disk SG at a specified height were also developed. Maps indicated that the stands in the southern Atlantic Coastal Plain and Gulf Coastal Plain have the highest SG at a given height level.

Description: Subsistence harvesting and wild food production by Athabascan peoples is part of an integrated social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We describe effects of recent trends and future climate change projections on the boreal ecosystem of interior Alaska and relate changes in ecosystem services to Athabascan subsistence. We focus primarily on moose, a keystone terrestrial subsistence resource of villages in that region. Although recent climate change has affected the boreal forest, moose, and Athabascan moose harvesting, a high dependence by village households on moose persists. An historical account of 20th century socioeconomic changes demonstrates that the vulnerability of Athabascan subsistence systems to climatic change has in some respects increased while at the same time has improved aspects of village resilience. In the face of future climate and socioeconomic changes, communities have limited but potentially effective mitigation and adaptation opportunities. The extent to which residents can realize those opportunities depends on the responsiveness of formal and informal institutions to local needs. For example, increases in Alaska’s urban population coupled with climate-induced habitat shifts may increase hunting conflicts in low-moose years. This problem could be mitigated through adaptive co-management strategies that project future moose densities and redirect urban hunters to areas of lower conflict.

Description: Forest compartments are usually delineated according to artificial or natural boundaries and usually include portions of different strata. While volume estimation of each stratum can be performed from field plots located within each stratum, volume estimation in portions of the stratum may be problematic owing to the small number (or even the absence) of plots falling in those portions. If upper canopy heights from airborne laser scanning are available at the pixel level for the whole survey area, these data are used as auxiliary information. A ratio model presuming a proportional relationship between transformed heights (e.g., power of heights) and volumes at the pixel level is adopted to guide estimation. From this model, the volume within any portion of the survey area is estimated as the proportionality factor estimate multiplied by the total of transformed heights in that portion. This estimator is considered from the model-based, design-based, and hybrid perspectives. Variances and their estimators are derived under the three approaches together with the corresponding confidence intervals. The volume estimator and the variance estimators are checked from the design-based point of view by a simulation study performed on a real forest in northwestern Italy. An application to a public forest estate in the same zone is performed.

Description: Forest management planners usually treat potential fire loss estimates as exogenous parameters in their timber production planning processes. When they do so, they do not account for the fact that forest access road construction, timber harvesting, and silvicultural activities can alter a landscape’s vegetation or fuel composition, and they ignore the possibility that such activities may influence future fire losses. We develop an integrated fire and forest management planning methodology that accounts for and exploits such interactions. Our methodology is based on fire occurrence, suppression, and spread models, a fire protection value model that identifies crucial stands, the harvesting of which can have a significant influence on the spread of fires across the landscape, and a spatially explicit timber harvest scheduling model. We illustrate its use by applying it to a forest management unit in the boreal forest region of the province of Alberta in western Canada. We found that for our study area, integrated fire – forest management planning based on our methodology could result in an 8.1% increase in net present value when compared with traditional planning in which fire loss is treated as an exogenous factor.

Description: White poplar ( Populus alba L.) is a native species in Europe, but its growth potential is largely unknown. The general objectives of our study were to determine the impact of contrasted environments across Europe and the influence of parental characteristics on the growth potential of an intraspecific F1 white poplar family originating from a cross between parents native from the south and the north of Italy. The growth of the family was monitored at three sites located in the north of Italy, in central France, and in the southern United Kingdom. The family showed a highly superior productivity in Italy. A pronounced plasticity among sites was found for the male parent only. Indeed, for this parent, the highest growth was observed in northern Italy, its area of origin. A positive heterosis was observed mainly in France and in the United Kingdom. Broad-sense heritability values were moderate in most cases. However, the growth of the family was in some cases superior to the one of several other interspecific hybrid families growing under the same conditions, underlying the poorly known growth potential of such intraspecific hybrids for biomass production under European conditions.

Description: Deadwood in various stages of decomposition and diverse spatial arrangements provides habitat for numerous organisms. However, knowledge on the colonization of deadwood by vascular plants in mixed deciduous forests is insufficient. We carried out our study in an oak–lime–hornbeam forest in northeastern Poland. Downed logs were colonized by 49 vascular plant species, a number higher than reported from any other type of forest. Species richness and abundance of plants increased with log diameter and decomposition. The former was higher on broadleaf deadwood than on coniferous deadwood (46 vs. 38 species). The frequency and abundance on logs were higher for small-seeded plants (

Description: The natural phenotypic variation in Chinese white poplar (Populus tomentosa Carr.), which is distributed across a wide geographical area of northern China (30°N–40°N, 105°E–125°E), is a potential source of beneficial variation for poplar breeding. Thirteen traits related to growth, leaf, and wood properties were quantified in 460 P. tomentosa individuals grown in a common garden plot. There was considerable range-wide phenotypic variation in all traits across individuals according to the patterns of ANOVA among hierarchical groups (populations and regions, respectively). A clear sexual dimorphism for seven traits was examined. In total, 32 trait–trait phenotypic correlations (P ≤ 0.05), 10 trait–geographical factor correlations (P ≤ 0.05), and a highly interrelated structure network were identified, which was further supported by principal component analysis (PCA). These associations can be used in multiple-trait selective breeding programs for advantageous phenotypic traits. A hierarchical cluster analysis was used to classify four groups (southeastern, central, northeastern, and southwestern populations) among the natural populations using these 13 phenotypic traits. This study provides important perspectives into the use of direct breeding to potentially improve economic traits and provides a starting point for genome-wide association studies in P. tomentosa in the near future.

Description: Declines of whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) have occurred across much of the species’ range over the last 40 years due to mountain pine beetle outbreaks and white pine blister rust infection. Management efforts to stem these declines are increasing, yet the long-term success of whitebark pine depends on the species itself adapting to the modern environment. Natural regeneration will be a critical part of this process. We examined patterns in natural whitebark pine regeneration as related to the biophysical environment in sixty 0.1 ha plots in Montana, Idaho, and Oregon. Whitebark pine regeneration was present in 97% of our plots and varied widely in density from 0 to 17 000 seedlings/ha and 0 to 2680 saplings/ha. Using nonparametric correlation analysis and ordination techniques, we found whitebark pine regeneration abundance was unrelated to stand age but significantly related to several biophysical site characteristics, including positive relationships with elevation and canopy tree mortality caused by mountain pine beetle and negative relationships with moisture availability, temperature, and subalpine fir importance. Our findings indicate that whitebark pine is regenerating in many areas and that the widespread mortality from recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks may provide suitable settings for whitebark pine regeneration given sufficient seed sources.

Description: We report estimates of the amount, distribution, and uncertainty of aboveground biomass (AGB) of the different ecoregions and forest land cover classes within the North American boreal forest, analyze the factors driving the error estimates, and compare our estimates with other reported values. A three-phase sampling strategy was used (i) to tie ground plot AGB to airborne profiling lidar metrics and (ii) to link the airborne estimates of AGB to ICESat-GLAS lidar measurements such that (iii) GLAS could be used as a regional sampling tool. We estimated the AGB of the North American boreal forest at 21.8 Pg, with relative error of 1.9% based on 256 GLAS orbits (229 086 pulses). The distribution of AGB was 46.6% for western Canada, 43.7% for eastern Canada, and 9.7% for Alaska. With a single exception, relative errors were under 4% for the three regions and for the major cover types and under 10% at the ecoregion level. The uncertainties of the estimates were calculated using a variance estimator that accounted for only sampling error, i.e., the variability among GLAS orbital estimates, and airborne to spaceborne regression error, i.e., the uncertainty of the model coefficients. Work is ongoing to develop robust statistical techniques for integrating other sources of error such as ground to air regression error and allometric error. Small ecoregions with limited east–west extents tended to have fewer GLAS orbits and a greater percent sampling error. AGB densities derived from GLAS agreed closely with the estimates derived from both forest inventories (

Description: We evaluated spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreak effects in nine study areas (60–86 ha each) located in the boreal forest of eastern Quebec (Canada). In each area, spruce budworm outbreak effects were measured from vegetation plots, dominant canopy and understory tree age structures, retrospective analysis of aerial photographs, defoliation records, and host tree growth reductions (dendrochronology). Large-scale synchronous outbreaks were detected across the region around the years 1880, 1915, 1950, and 1980. Overall, contrarily to what was expected for a region where host species (balsam fir ( Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), Picea spp.) content is relatively high, these spruce budworm outbreaks seemed to have a relatively minor influence on stand dynamics, with the exception of the most recent outbreak (1980). This outbreak resulted in major stand mortality in the southern part of the region and favored the establishment of extensive tracts of young even-aged stands with few residual mature trees. This very abrupt increase in outbreak severity compared with earlier outbreaks, perhaps due to climatic or random factors, suggests that historical trends in successive outbreak severity should be extrapolated very cautiously and that the study of several outbreak cycles is needed to establish a range of natural variability that can be used to develop an ecosystem forest management strategy.

Description: Forest managers are seeking strategies to create stands that can adapt to new climatic conditions and simultaneously help mitigate increases in atmospheric CO2. Adaptation strategies often focus on enhancing resilience by maximizing forest complexity in terms of species composition and size structure, while mitigation involves sustaining carbon storage and sequestration. Altered stand age is a fundamental consequence of forest management, and stand age is a powerful predictor of ecosystem structure and function in even-aged stands. However, the relationship between stand age and either complexity or carbon storage and sequestration, especially trade-offs between the two, are not well characterized. We quantified these relationships in clearcut-origin, unmanaged pine and aspen chronosequences ranging from 130 years in northern Minnesota. Complexity generally increased with age, although compositional complexity changed more over time in aspen forests and structural complexity changed more over time in pine stands. Although individual carbon pools displayed various relationships with stand age, total carbon storage increased with age, whereas carbon sequestration, inferred from changes in storage, decreased sharply with age. These results illustrate the carbon and complexity consequences of varying forest harvest rotation length to favor younger or older forests and provide insight into trade-offs between these potentially conflicting management objectives.

Description: Disturbances such as fire and harvesting shape forest dynamics and must be accounted for when modelling forest properties. However, acquiring timely disturbance information for all of Canada’s large forest area has always been challenging. Therefore, we developed an approach to detect annual forest change resulting from fire, harvesting, or flooding using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery at 250 m spatial resolution across Canada and to estimate the within-pixel fractional change (FC). When this approach was applied to the period from 2000 to 2011, the accuracy of detection of burnt, harvested, or flooded areas against our validation dataset was 82%, 80%, and 85%, respectively. With FC, 77% of the area burnt and 82% of the area harvested within the validation dataset were correctly identified. The methodology was optimized to reduce the commission error but tended to omit smaller disturbances as a result. For example, the omitted area for harvest blocks greater than 80 ha was less than 14% but increased to between 38% and 50% for harvest blocks of 20 to 30 ha. Detection of burnt and harvested areas in some regions was hindered by persistent haze or cloud cover or by insect outbreaks. All resulting data layers are available as supplementary material.

Description: Proportional basal area (Pro-B) was developed as an accurate, easy-to-use method for making uneven-aged silviculture a practical management option. Following less than 3 h of training, forest staff from a range of professional backgrounds used Pro-B in an operational-scale field study to apply single-tree selection and group selection systems in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) stands. Field crews achieved precision levels often within 3%–5% of the 11.5 m2·ha−1 target residual basal area. By aggregating many diameter classes into only three diameter-class groups, Pro-B improves efficiency by requiring tree markers to remember only three fractions, while making a single pass through the stand. Trees of large size, specific species and with good form, broad crowns and cavities can be retained, while adjusting spacing to release residuals. Systematic quantification of marking trees for removal enables different individuals to obtain similar results. Early observations revealed encouraging levels of pine regeneration and stand development, along with continuing good volume growth rates of 3% per year. Although less certain until one or more cutting cycles are completed, these early tests indicate that a stable mature forest structure should develop, which is characterized by the presence of large trees and natural regeneration.

Description: Vegetative propagation of conifers has found large-scale industrial application via somatic embryogenesis (SE), rooting of cuttings, and organogenesis. Genetic gain is achieved with all of these methods but is the highest with SE, primarily because SE cultures can be cryopreserved. This allows for plants derived from part of each cell line to be field tested over a long period while the rest of each cell line is kept in a juvenile state by cryopreservation for later use. This makes it possible to select the best performers within the best families. For rooting of cuttings and organogenesis, genetic gain is generally based on family average, which is less powerful. However, SE has its limitations, primarily because its initiation, maturation, or germination rates are too low to be effective for many species. Consequently, for many species, the preferred clonal propagation option is still rooting of cuttings or organogenesis. If better methods can be developed to keep ortets used for rooting of cuttings and organogenesis in a prolonged juvenile state, or if future developments in marker technology reach a point where within-family selection becomes possible without the aid of cryopreservation, rooting of cuttings and organogenesis will achieve the same genetic gain as SE.

Description: Tree mortality because of beetle outbreaks has become substantial and widespread in conifer forests in western North America. A number of environmental and physiological factors influence patterns of mortality. Tree diversity may reduce the severity and extent of insect damage to host trees by providing associational resistance, but the existence and importance of associational resistance varies by forest type and by tree and insect species. We assessed whether plot-level tree diversity contributed to survival of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.) following a spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) epidemic. Our study plots comprised 2 to 5 tree species including Engelmann spruce, subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook) Nutt.), Douglas-fir (Pseudostuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), and white fir (Abies concolor (Gordon & Glend.) Hildebr.). We used a model-selection analysis to compare the importance of tree diversity with other known factors that influence spruce survival. We found lower rates of spruce survival in stands where spruce was the dominant tree species (by percent of stand density index) and higher survival in stands where nonspruce conifers (Douglas-fir, subalpine, and white fir) were dominant. We also found that tree diversity (Shannon index) did not show a positive correlation to spruce survival and that there was no additional benefit derived from the presence of aspen, which has higher phylogenetic distance from Engelmann spruce than the other trees in this study. The relationship between diversity and survival is complicated by factors that naturally co-vary with diversity, such as elevation, aspect, and stand density of spruce. Our results best support an explanation that if associational resistance does increase spruce survival during a beetle epidemic, it is due to host or resource dilution, which may be an indirect effect of higher stand diversity.

Description: Tree species distributions and diversity could be explained by rank changes in performance over multiple spatiotemporal resource gradients, i.e., resource partitioning. For 14 species planted in 45 harvest gap and closed canopy locations in a mesic northern hardwood forest community, Michigan, USA, we asked the following questions: (i) are species growth responses to light, nitrogen (N), or N form (ammonium vs. nitrate) related to their ecological distributions and phylogenies? and (ii) is there evidence of growth-based resource partitioning over measured resource gradients? Growth responses to the N form were consistent with both differences in uptake energy requirements between N forms and their availability through succession and across fertility gradients; height growth was negatively related to the species shade-tolerance score, especially in high light, i.e., shade-intolerant species responded to soil nitrate-N and shade-tolerant species responded to ammonium-N; fertile soil associated species responded to nitrate-N and infertile soil associated species to ammonium-N; and gymnosperms responded to ammonium-N and angiosperm responses varied. Modeled growth responses to resources showed only modest evidence for rank changes over resource gradients, with N contributing less to rank changes than light. Thus, growth responses to resources were accurately predicted by species ecology and (or) phylogeny; however, there was only modest support for the notion that growth-based resource partitioning underlies community-scale diversity in a northern hardwood forest.

Description: An integrated forest management optimization model was developed to calculate potential spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens) effects on forest and wood product carbon (C) from 2007 to 2057 and to evaluate potential C sequestration benefits of alternative management strategies (salvage, biological insecticide application). The model was tested using simulated spruce budworm outbreaks on a 210 000 ha intensively managed forest in northwestern New Brunswick, Canada. Under a severe spruce budworm outbreak scenario from 2007 to 2020, harvest volume and forest and wood product C storage in 2027 were projected to be reduced by 1.34 Mm3, 1.48 Mt, and 0.26 Mt, respectively, compared with the levels under no defoliation. Under the same severe outbreak scenario, implementation of salvage and harvest replanning plus a biological insecticide applied aerially to 40% of susceptible forest area, reduced harvest, forest C, and wood product C impacts by 73%, 41%, and 56%, respectively. Extrapolation of these results to all of New Brunswick suggests that a future severe spruce budworm outbreak could effectively increase total provincial annual C emissions (all sources) by up to 40%, on average, over the next 20 years. This modeling approach can be used to identify to what extent insecticide application, as a forest-C-offset project, could result in additional C storage than without forest and pest management.

Description: With a growing interest in the diversification (e.g., bioenergy, biochemicals) of the forest industry beyond the traditional product streams, concerns that higher harvest utilization levels may compromise site productivity have been heightened. This study reports on 15-year tree growth responses to varying levels of biomass removals conducted on four soil types: loamy tills, outwash sands, wet mineral, and peatlands. Experimental harvest treatments included stem-only, full-tree, full-tree chipping (a full-tree harvest with the roadside material chipped and returned to the site), and full-tree + bladed (a full-tree harvest followed by forest floor removal). Results indicated no significant effect on height growth on the loamy tills, a significant decline for the blading treatment on the sandy soils, and an increase when the blading treatment was applied to the peatland sites. At the stand level, better planted seedling survival and higher recruitment of naturals on the more extreme removal treatment (forest floor removal on sandy sites) tended to nullify any negative impacts identified in the individual-tree growth measurements. The more than doubling of the slash loading on the stem-only treatment plots compared with the full-tree plots did not result in differences in tree productivity levels between these two operational treatments. The stands, however, were just approaching crown closure by year 15, suggesting that ongoing monitoring will be required to confirm that the growth trajectories for the various harvest treatment – soil type combinations can be maintained.

Description: In the mid-1990s, a Spruce Bark Beetle (Ips typographus L.) outbreak affected the Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests in the higher elevations of the Bavarian Forest National Park in Germany. To monitor the effect of this large-scale disturbance on the understory vegetation, a series of permanent plots was established in 1998. Until 2000, most of the trees of the spruce-dominated forests at elevations 〉 1.100 m a.s.l. died. To explore the long-term vegetation development after the disturbance, we resurveyed these plots in 2010. We hypothesised that as a consequence of the stand-replacing disturbance, (i) species composition would change substantially, (ii) shade-tolerant forest species would be replaced by light-demanding species, and (iii) the expansion of the light-demanding species would homogenize species composition. Comparing the 1998 and 2010 situations, we found that species composition did not change substantially after the dieback of the tree layer, shade-tolerant species survived, light-demanding species increased only marginally, and vegetation heterogeneity did not change. The main reason is the missing forest floor disruption: there is no open space emerging for species to establish when trees die standing. As a consequence, a dramatic change in ecosystem structure (loss of the whole canopy layer) is not necessarily connected with a general change in species composition.

Description: It is acknowledged that natural forest fires cannot and even should not be eliminated from the North American boreal forest. Forest fires produce immediate losses of wood volume, disrupt the conversion of the actual forest age structure into a target structure, and prevent planned timber supply (PTS) levels from being achieved. In this paper, we explore the extent to which periodic shortfalls in available timber under various burn rates can be mitigated through salvage logging and the tolerance of forest managers to a given level of shortfall, both as a function of forest age class structure. Simulations are done using both a deterministic and a stochastic representation of burn rate over time. Results show that the frequency of shortfall events can be reduced by salvage logging and by the introduction of measures that generate a tolerance to shortfall and that this mitigation potential is influenced by initial forest age class structure and burn rate. Results also show that even a 100% rate of salvage logging cannot fully compensate for timber losses to fire and eliminate fire-induced timber shortfalls. Furthermore, interannual burn rate variability reduces the efficiency of both mitigation measures. As the PTS is never realized under fire risk, the real cost of opting for different PTS scenarios should be estimated not from the difference in PTS but rather from the more realistic difference in realized timber harvest.

Description: Harvest strategies that emulate natural disturbances are being promoted to restore multilayered forest heterogeneity, notably the harvest of largest trees. However, their use also increases management complexity, and more information on their practical feasibility and effects on forests is needed. Therefore, in this study, target diameter cutting treatments were applied to a heterogeneously structured stand in southern Sweden (exemplifying a conifer-dominated forest of the hemiboreal forest region in northern Europe) to assess their effects on gap dynamics, natural regeneration, and stand growth. The target diameter cutting resulted in an exponentially decreasing gap size distribution, with the largest canopy gaps measuring 0.1–0.2 ha. The gap closure rate was higher than reported rates for gaps in natural forests. After 5 years, sufficient numbers of seedlings had regenerated, but proportions of intermediate- and late-successional tree species were low. The observed stand growth exceeded rates simulated using the growth model Standwise in the Heureka forest planning software package. The findings from this case study are useful for refining the general concept of close-to-nature forestry, but they need to be complemented with the information available from other regeneration studies after partial harvest.

Description: Managed coniferous forest dominates much of the black-backed woodpecker’s ( Picoides arcticus Swainson) breeding range. Despite this, little is known about the fine-scale foraging behaviour of this focal species in unburned managed forest stands in the absence of insect outbreaks. To investigate the foraging substrates used in such a habitat, we employed radio-telemetry to track a total of 27 black-backed woodpeckers. During two successive summers (2005–2006), 279 foraging observations were recorded, most of which were on dying trees, snags, and downed woody debris. Individuals frequently foraged by excavation, suggesting that in the absence of insect outbreaks the black-backed woodpecker forages mainly by drilling. The majority of foraging events occurred on recently dead snags with a mean dbh (±SE) of 18.3 ± 0.4 cm. Our results suggest that in unburned boreal forest stands, substrate diameter and decay class are important predictors of suitable foraging substrates for black-backed woodpeckers. We suggest that conservation efforts aimed at maintaining this dead-wood dependent cavity nesting species within the landscape, should endeavour to maintain 100 ha patches of old-growth coniferous forest. This would ensure the continuous production of a sufficient quantity of recently dead or dying trees to meet the foraging needs of this species.

Description: The identification of low-vigor trees with potential for sawlog production is a key objective of tree marking guidelines used for partial cuts in northern hardwoods. The aim of this study was to measure the impact of various vigor-related defects on the monetary value of hardwoods. To achieve this, we sampled 64 sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall) and 32 yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britton) trees from two locations in southern Quebec, Canada. We identified over 420 defects, which were grouped into 8 categories. The trees were then harvested and processed into lumber, and the value per unit volume of each stem was calculated from the value of the product assortment (lumber, chips, and sawdust). We found that visible evidence of fungal infections (sporocarps and (or) stroma) and cracks had the largest negative influence on value in both species. A model that included these defects was almost as good at predicting value as one that included a specifically designed quality classification. A more accurate assessment of value could be achieved using wood decay assessment tools and (or) by considering site-specific variables. Results from this study showed that visual identification of fungal infections and cracks could be used to enhance tree marking guidelines for hardwoods. This would meet both the silvicultural objective of selection cuts, by removing low-vigor trees, and the wood supply objective, by improving stem quality assessment prior to harvest.

Description: We evaluated effects of topsoil scarification by heavy machinery on growth of two valuable, shade-intolerant tree species — Nothofagus dombeyi (Mirb.) Oerst. (evergreen and considered to be very plastic to different soil fertility levels) and Nothofagus alpina (Poepp. & Endl.) Oerst. (deciduous and considered to be sensitive to soil fertility) — seedlings that were underplanted in Nothofagus old-growth forests, which were subjected to shelterwood cuttings without the final cut in the Chilean Andes. We compared tree basal diameter growth as it responds to light availability and soil compaction (as measured by resistance to penetration) by fitting a growth model based on the Michaelis–Menten equation. Predicted growth of N. dombeyi was greater than N. alpina in high and low light levels; however, there were no significant differences between the species. Both species showed significant differences at high levels of penetration resistance (〉2000 kPa). Differences for N. dombeyi occurred above ∼40% in total light, and differences occurred for N. alpina above ∼20% in total light. However, they were not different when compared at low and intermediate levels of penetration resistance. The results suggest that partial shelterwood cuts may provide adequate light levels to achieve appropriate growth of underplanted Nothofagus seedlings. However, if regeneration of N. alpina is desired, scarification of topsoil needs to be implemented with more caution in canopy openings, as traffic and soil removal by heavy machinery can have detrimental effects on growth of this species and other species that are more sensitive to soil compaction.

Description: Forest management regimes increasingly focus on the emulation of natural disturbance events, e.g., fire or insect outbreaks, to help increase ecosystem sustainability. We determined the residual stand response to a variable retention harvest inspired by spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)) outbreaks in New Brunswick, Canada. Our objectives were to analyze the differences between surviving residual trees and those that succumbed to windthrow and to quantify growth release. The treatment was based on harvesting the estimated spruce budworm outbreak mortality, i.e., 90% of mature balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill., 60% of mature spruce (Picea spp.), and no hardwoods. Windthrow increased with the proportion of trees harvested and averaged 52% over 7–9 years in these stands with high balsam fir – spruce content. One-third of 42 harvested plots sustained 〉30% windthrow, whereas 73% of 11 similar unharvested plots had

Description: Accumulating evidence suggests that density dependence, whether at early or late life stages, is an important mechanism regulating plant population structure. However, the opposing effects of habitat heterogeneity and species-level variation might have confounded the prevalence of density dependence in natural forests. These compatible ideas were rarely considered simultaneously. In this study, we applied a spatial statistical technique to examine (i) the prevalence of density dependence at late life stages after controlling for habitat heterogeneity and (ii) the relationships between species traits and the strength of density dependence in a newly established, 25 ha subtropical mountain forest plot in central China. Of the 88 (75%) tree species analyzed, 66 were found to exhibit density dependence predominantly at very close distances among neighbors in the species-rich subtropical forest. In addition, the strength of density dependence was associated with species traits. Our findings identified strong density dependence among trees that had greater stature and were rarer. We concluded that density dependence was a prevalent mechanism for regulating the population structure of most tree species and both habitat heterogeneity and species-level variation played crucial roles in shaping the strength of density dependence in natural forests.

Description: Tree growth rate is frequently used to estimate mortality probability. Yet, growth metrics can vary in form, and the justification for using one over another is rarely clear. We tested whether a growth index (GI) that scales the realized diameter growth rate against the potential diameter growth rate (PDGR) would give better estimates of mortality probability than other measures. We also tested whether PDGR, being a function of tree size, might better correlate with the baseline mortality probability than direct measurements of size such as diameter or basal area. Using a long-term dataset from the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., as well as existing species-specific estimates of PDGR, we developed growth–mortality models for four common species. For three of the four species, models that included GI, PDGR, or a combination of GI and PDGR were substantially better than models without them. For the fourth species, the models including GI and PDGR performed roughly as well as a model that included only the diameter growth rate. Our results suggest that using PDGR can improve our ability to estimate tree survival probability. However, in the absence of PDGR estimates, the diameter growth rate was the best empirical predictor of mortality, in contrast to assumptions often made in the literature.

Description: New sensor-based approaches for assessing the quantity, quality, and value of timber are being developed with the goals of improving the accuracy and economics of forest measurements. One new approach is based on terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). Thirty-three plots in six radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) stands were scanned using TLS. Tree locations were automatically detected. Stem profiles were measured using three methods: (i) TLS scans, (ii) Atlas Cruiser inventory procedures, and (iii) manual measurement after harvesting. Stems were optimally bucked based on log specifications and prices for Australian markets. Tree values and log product yields were estimated for the TLS data and compared with estimates based on Cruiser and actual manual measurements of stem profiles. TLS volume and value recovery were within 8% and 7%, respectively, of actual harvester recovery for five of the six stands in which it was used. Cruiser volume and value estimates were both within 4% of actual harvester recovery. Plot preparation procedures, tree characteristics, and taper equations used to model diameters on hidden stem sections affected the accuracy of automated stem detection and profile measurements for the TLS system. Improvements in data capture and analytical procedures should improve the accuracy of TLS-based volume and value estimates.

Description: Salinity is a major environmental stress that is reducing crop yield, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. It is responsible for many physiological and biochemical disorders in plants. To investigate its effects on two acacia species, namely Acacia ampliceps Maslin and Acacia nilotica L., a solution-culture experiment was conducted in which both species were exposed to NaCl concentrations of 100 and 200 mmol·L–1. After four weeks of salinity stress, plants were harvested, and physical-growth data were recorded. The membrane stability index and activities of antioxidants enzymes such as superoxide dismutase, peroxidase, and catalase were determined using standard methods. Root exudates were collected for the analysis of organic acids, i.e., citric acid and tartaric acid. Root ash alkalinity was also measured. The results indicated that salinity stress caused a significant increase in the activities of antioxidant enzymes and in the release of organic acids in both species. Higher activities of antioxidant enzymes resulted in less damage to membranes and produced more shoot and root biomass in A. ampliceps than in A. nilotica. Likewise, having more rhizosphere acidification enabled A. ampliceps to respond in a better way to salinity stress than A. nilotica.

Description: While the behavior and objectives of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) owners have been studied extensively, studies that systematically test the underlying measurement model are lacking in forest economic literature. Our paper reports the results obtained from a recent large-scale survey conducted in Finland in 2011 (n = 557). Results indicate a novel way to systematically analyze the objectives of forest ownership by testing the validity of the developed measurement scale using the structural equations modeling technique. From an exploratory factor analysis of 22 items measuring forest owner objectives, a four-dimensional structure is identified in the background objectives of NIPF owners. These dimensions are labeled as recreation and leisure time, sense of economic security, nature conservation and aesthetics, and timber sales income objective. Having undergone a confirmatory testing process, results from the four-dimensional model support the validity of the developed 16-item measurement model. Based on these findings, we argue that the logical NIPF owner objective structure in Finland consists of experiential forest value, as perceived in current and future time contexts, as well as of current and future economic objectives. As the theoretical structure divides forest owner objectives into the evaluation of the present objectives, supplemented with a psychological evaluation of the future objectives, a novel classification of NIPF owner objectives is suggested.

Description: By using more sophisticated sampling designs in forest field inventories, it is possible to select more representative field samples. When full cover auxiliary information is available at the planning stage of a forest inventory, an efficient strategy for sampling is formed by making sure that the sample is well spread in the space spanned by the auxiliary variables. We show that by using such a sampling design, we can improve not only design-based estimation, but also estimation based on nearest neighbour techniques. A new technique to select well-spread probability samples, in multidimensional spaces, from larger populations is introduced. As an application, we illustrate how this strategy can be applied to a forest field inventory. We use an artificial dataset corresponding to a full cover forest remote sensing inventory of a 30 000 ha area of Kuortane, western Finland. The target variable (growing stock volume) has been generated for the entire area by a copula technique. The artificial population has been validated by utilizing the Finnish National Forest Inventory.

Description: Declining biodiversity is a critical component of global change owing to its influence on ecosystem functioning. Decomposition rate frequently increases with fungal species number, but the responses of extracellular enzymes to fungal species number have not been tested. To test the effect of biodiversity on decomposition and enzyme activities, quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) litter was inoculated with mixtures of one, two, four, or eight fungi from a pool of 16 fungi that had been isolated from a boreal forest in Alaska. Total CO2 release and the activities of β-glucosidase, which targets cellulose, and polyphenol oxidase, which targets lignin and other recalcitrant phenolic compounds, were observed across the range of species numbers in the mixtures. Total CO2 release and β-glucosidase activity increased with number of species but were only weakly correlated with each other; polyphenol oxidase activity had no correlation with number of species or CO2 release. The results indicate that, over 4 months, decomposition of labile carbon is positively correlated with number of species.

Description: On 11 December 2008, a severe ice storm affected large portions of southern New England. We report the results of a study investigating differential damage among tree species. Past studies surveying ice-damaged forests have relied heavily on ocular estimations of canopy damage. We compare this method with damage estimates based on the cross-sectional area of downed woody material and quantitative comparisons of tree height and canopy projection in damaged and undamaged stands. Ocular estimates and changes in canopy height and projection were unreliable. Estimates based on the amount of woody debris provide a more robust measure of storm damage. We assess damage in two forest tracts with a dominant red oak (Quercus rubra L.) canopy (42% of total basal area) and an American beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.) dominated understory (50% of all stems 〉 1.3 m). Species’ standing basal area was well correlated with the amount of newly downed woody debris (r = 0.69, p 〈 0.001); accordingly, oak species constituted approximately 57% of all newly downed woody debris, and ANOVA showed that oak species were significantly more impacted by ice damage than other species present (p 〈 0.001). Our findings indicate that canopy species provide an “umbrella effect”, shielding less dominant lower strata trees from the worst effects of ice load. Oak was also the largest contributor to older downed woody debris, indicative of a recurrent historical pattern of differential canopy disturbance driven by strata and relative dominance. These findings suggest that periodic ice events play an important role in facilitating the advancement of shade-tolerant tree species into the canopy from lower strata.

Description: Phytolith-occluded organic carbon (PhytOC) is an important long-term (up to several thousand years) terrestrial carbon (C) fraction in forest ecosystems. The objectives of this study were to (i) investigate the spatial distribution of PhytOC in Lei bamboo (Phyllostachys praecox C.D. Chu & C.S. Chao.) forests under intensive management (mulching and fertilization) and (ii) assess the role of PhytOC in C sequestration in a Lei bamboo stand and across subtropical China. Phytolith concentrations in Lei bamboo plant components were (P 〈 0.05) in the following order: rhizome ≈ stump 〉 leaf ≈ branch 〉 culm. The distribution of PhytOC in bamboo leaves, branches, culms, rhizomes, and stumps was 22.2%, 12.1%, 16.1%, 15.9%, and 33.7%, respectively. The PhytOC stock was in the following order (P 〈 0.05): soil (9361 kg C·ha−1) 〉 mulching materials (197.5 kg C·ha−1) 〉 belowground plant parts (13.0 kg C·ha−1) ≈ aboveground plant parts (12.8 kg C·ha−1) ≈ litterfall (11.3 kg C·ha−1). The PhytOC accretion rate in the vegetation in the Lei bamboo stand was 19.4 kg C·ha−1·year−1, equivalent to 71 kg CO2-eq·ha−1·year−1. The soil PhytOC stock decreased markedly with depth and had an accretion rate of 325 kg C·ha−1·year−1 for the 0–60 cm soil layer. Based on a PhytOC accretion rate of 0.795 Mg CO2-eq·ha−1·year−1, PhytOC accretion rate in the 2.62 × 106 ha of Lei bamboo stands in southern China is estimated to be 2.08 × 106 Mg CO2-eq·year−1. In conclusion, intensively managed Lei bamboo stands have a large potential in long-term C sequestration in the form of PhytOC, and the PhytOC stock belowground should not be ignored due to its contribution to the ecosystem level PhytOC stock.

Description: In recent years, the annual imports of wooden bedroom furniture by the United States have been over five billion dollars, with more than two billion dollars of that coming from China. This trend led to an antidumping action against China in October 2003. Since January 2005, antidumping duties of 0.83% to 198.08% have been imposed on individual Chinese firms. To assess the impact of this antidumping action, intervention analysis was employed to examine the import values of four furniture commodities and the prices of two of them over 1997–2008. China and six other major competing countries were included in the analysis. With regard to import values from China, significant trade investigation effects were identified: the petition announcement generated a positive impact in March 2004; the preliminary less-than-fair-value (LTFV) determination had a negative impact from July to December 2004. However, the final implementation did not show any expected trade duty effect. The aggregate impact of the antidumping action on import values from China over 2003–2008 was approximately equivalent to a 1-month import reduction. The impact on the unit prices for China was insignificant. For the six competing countries, intervention analyses revealed that the antidumping action generated a positive trade diversion effect, with the magnitude smaller than the trade depression effect on China.

Description: Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) restoration in the southeastern United States offers opportunities for carbon (C) sequestration. Ecosystem C stocks are not well understood in longleaf pine forests, which are typically of low density and maintained by prescribed fire. The objectives of this research were to develop allometric equations for above- and below-ground biomass and quantify ecosystem C stocks in five longleaf pine forests ranging in age from 5 to 87 years and in basal area from 0.4 to 22.6 m2·ha−1. Live aboveground C (woody plant + ground cover) and live root C (longleaf pine below stump + plot level coarse roots + plot level fine roots) ranged from 1.4 and 2.9 Mg C·ha−1, respectively, in the 5-year-old stand to 78.4 and 19.2 Mg C·ha−1, respectively, in the 87-year-old stand. Total ecosystem C (live plant + dead organic matter + mineral soil) values were 71.6, 110.1, 124.6, 141.4, and 185.4 Mg C·ha−1 in the 5-, 12-, 21-, 64-, and 87-year-old stands, respectively, and dominated by tree C and soil C. In the 5-year-old stand, ground cover C and residual taproot C were significant C stocks. This unique, in-depth assessment of above- and below-ground C across a series of longleaf pine stands will improve estimates of C in longleaf pine ecosystems and contribute to development of general biomass models that account for variation in climate, site, and management history in an important but understudied ecosystem.

Description: The comparative analysis of a large set of long-term fertilization and thinning studies in the major forest types of interior Alaska is summarized. Results indicate that nutrient limitations may only occur during the early spring growth period, after which moisture availability is the primary control of tree growth on warm sites. The temperature dynamics of both air and soil set seasonal bounds on the nutrient and moisture dynamics for all forest types. Air and soil temperature limitations are the primary control of intraseasonal growth in the colder topographic locations in interior Alaska. These locations are usually dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton, Sterns, Poggenb.) vegetation types. The seasonal progression of factors controlling growth is strongly tied to the state factor structure of the landscape.

Description: Because many currently protected forests are former timber production areas, restoration activities are often used to re-establish their natural structures. In this experimental study, we monitored the establishment of tree seedlings in previously managed but currently protected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) dominated stands in boreal forests 5 years after restoration measures. The study included eight study areas (115 sample plots) in southern Finland. We compared seedling abundance between five study groups: untreated control forest, unburned canopy gap, burned full-canopy forest, burned canopy gap, and thinned and burned forest. Density of tree seedlings was highest in burned canopy gaps (mean 25.4 seedlings/100 m2 compared with 6.0 seedlings/100 m2 in control sites). In particular, birch (Betula spp.) and Scots pine were significantly more abundant within burned canopy gaps than in unburned gaps. We conclude that opening within-stand canopy gaps, especially in combination with prescribed burning, can be useful in forest restoration as the gaps diversify age-class structure and tree species composition of single-cohort pine stands.

Description: Short-rotation intensive culture (SRIC) of willow (Salix spp.) or hybrid poplar (Populus spp.) is currently at a precommercial stage with a potential to be applied economically across important areas to produce lignocellulosic biomass and environmental services in Canada. A two-round Delphi survey was conducted among 50 experts to assess the future deployment of SRIC in this country. The total area in 10 years (2011 base year) was forecasted as 1330, 4100, and 11 400 ha under pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic scenarios, respectively. The deployment of SRIC in the next decade depends mainly on the development of the demand for SRIC biomass and services, that of production technologies, and the establishment of policies and programs promoting its application. In the short term, research and development (R&D) and policy initiatives should be funded or implemented by various stakeholders to facilitate the deployment of the system. On average, respondents deemed that the potential for long-term (20 years) deployment of SRIC in Canada was good. Some of the conclusions and the methodological approach of this study could apply to short-rotation woody crop systems and to agroforestry systems in Canada and elsewhere.

Description: Restoration by imitating natural disturbances is widely practised in boreal forests to increase the availability of habitats for specialized species. We studied the abundance and species richness of saproxylic beetles on different types of created dead wood during 2 years after restoration. The study was conducted on areas of a large-scale experiment in which Norway spruce ( Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests were restored by controlled burning and partial harvesting with down wood retention in southern Finland. More beetle species were attracted to spruces than to birches and more species were attracted to burnt trees than to unburnt trees killed by girdling. Birch-living species consistently benefited from fire, but on spruce, the abundance of cambium consumers and their associates was negatively affected by fire. Trees at harvested sites attracted more beetles in the first year, but the volume of down wood retention had only minor effects. Beetle assemblages were strongly altered by burning and harvesting. We conclude that burning and harvesting are efficient tools to promote species richness within a short time period, but there is a risk that the dead wood resource may be rapidly exhausted. Moreover, many saproxylic species of spruce forests may not be adapted to open habitats formed by stand-replacing disturbances.

Description: This study evaluated the potential for the selective genetic improvement of the structural quality traits important in sawn Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) timber based on early and nondestructively assessed field traits. From a 34-year-old Norway spruce trial situated in southern Sweden, 401 butt logs were sampled and sawn to produce two 50 × 100 mm boards that were dried to an 18% moisture content. Structural quality traits were assessed, and genetic parameters were estimated, including additive genetic variance, heritability, and their genetic correlations with field traits. Board twisting, density, and modulus of elasticity (MOE, stiffness) were found to have appreciable heritabilities (0.23–0.44). Board twist was found to have a strong genetic correlation with grain angle measured under bark in the field (0.93), and both board MOE and density exhibited strong genetic correlations with field-assessed pilodyn penetration (–0.75 and –0.91, respectively). Although these observations were made on a thinning material comprising mainly juvenile wood, they nonetheless suggest grain angle and pilodyn penetration to be promising candidates as selection criteria for Norway spruce breeding. Heritabilities of other sawn timber traits were lower and the genetic correlations between these traits and field traits were also lower, variable, and had large estimation errors.

Description: The current mountain pine beetle infestation in British Columbia’s lodgepole pine forests has raised concerns about potential impacts on water resources. Changes in forest structure resulting from defoliation, windthrow, and salvage harvesting may increase snow accumulation and ablation (i.e., spring runoff and flooding risk) below the forest canopy because of reduced snow interception and higher levels of radiation reaching the surface. Quantifying these effects requires a better understanding of the link between forest structure and snow processes. Light detection and ranging (lidar) is an innovative technology capable of estimating forest structure metrics in a detailed, three-dimensional approach not easily obtained from manual measurements. While a number of previous studies have shown that increased snow accumulation and ablation occur as forest cover decreases, the potential improvement of these relationships based on lidar metrics has not been quantified. We investigated the correlation between lidar-derived and ground-based traditional canopy metrics with snow accumulation and ablation indicators, demonstrating that a lidar-derived forest cover parameter was the strongest predictor of peak snow accumulation (r2 = 0.70, p 〈 0.001) and maximum snow ablation rate (r2 = 0.59, p 〈 0.01). Improving our ability to quantify changes in forest structure in extensive areas will assist in developing more robust models of watershed processes.

Description: We examined the relationship between thinning intensity and volume increment predicted by four commonly used individual-tree growth models in Central Europe (i.e., BWIN, Moses, Prognaus, and Silva). We replicated conditions of older growth and yield experiments by selecting 34 young, dense plots of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). At these plots, we simulated growth, with mortality only, to obtain the maximum basal area. Maximum basal area was then decreased by 5% or 10% steps using thinning from below. Maximum density varied considerably between simulators; it was mostly in a reasonable range but partly exceeded the maximum basal area observed by the Austrian National Forest Inventory or the self-thinning line. In almost all cases, simulated volume increment was highest at maximum basal area and then decreased with decreasing basal area. Critical basal area, at which 95% of maximum volume increment can be achieved, ranged from 0.46 to 0.96. For all simulators, critical basal area was lower for the more shade-tolerant species. It increased with age, except for Norway spruce, when simulated with the BWIN model. Age, where mean annual increment culminated, compared well with yield tables.

Description: Forest bryophytes are sensitive to the disturbances and environmental changes associated with forest management. We asked whether the substrates on which bryophytes grow mediate responses to exposure following canopy removal. We measured bryophyte cover and richness in 0.1 m2 quadrats on the forest floor, decayed logs, and tree bases along a gradient of dispersed overstory retention (100%, 40%, and 15% of initial basal area) 7 to 8 years after harvest of mature Pseudotsuga forests. Cover, local richness, and, to a lesser degree, species evenness declined steeply across the retention gradient on decayed logs and tree bases but not on the forest floor. Liverworts were more sensitive than mosses, particularly on decayed logs and on the southwestern aspects of trees (〉97% declines in cover under 15% retention). Richness and evenness at the treatment scale also declined sharply on decayed logs and on the southwestern aspects of trees but changed little or increased under 40% retention on the forest floor. Our results indicate that even moderate levels of dispersed retention cannot sustain the abundance and overall diversity of wood-associated bryophytes in these forests. During regeneration harvests, conservation of these species may require retention of intact forest aggregates in which substrate quality and microclimatic stability can be maintained.

Description: Teak (Tectona grandis L. f.) clonal forestry has lately become a reality thanks to the development of efficient techniques for mass clonally propagating true-to-type teak trees of various ages. Field trials were set up to assess the influence of teak genotypes of different ages and three clonal propagation techniques on field growth performances of teak clones. Significant differences (P 〈 0.0001) in height (H, from 11.9 to 17.5 m), diameter at breast height (D, from 11.8 to 18.9 cm), and volume (V, from 67.9 to 194.7 dm3) were observed 5 years after planting for clones produced by microcuttings from 6-month-old to 70-year-old teak ortets, regardless of their age. After 6.5 years of testing, H, D, and V performances of clones produced by rooted cuttings and microcuttings from 7-year-old teak trees were similar, notwithstanding clone × propagation method interactions. Five years after planting, clones produced by meristem culture from 7-year-old ortets had larger diameters and volumes than clones produced by microcuttings, whereas H varied according to clone × propagation method interaction. The various propagation methods used had no significant effect on mortality (

Description: Natural disturbances are among the most important factors that shape forest dynamics and forest landscapes. However, the natural disturbance regime of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests in Europe is not well understood. We studied the disturbance regimes in three forest reserves in Bulgaria (Parangalitsa, Bistrishko branishte, and Beglika), which are representative of the range of conditions typical for P. abies ecosystems in central and southern Europe. Our data indicated that large-scale disturbances were most numerous in forests that were between 120 and 160 years old, those with unimodal diameter at breast height (DBH) distributions, and especially those located in vulnerable topographic settings. Wind disturbances ranged up to 60 ha, followed in one case by a 200 ha Ips typographus (Linnaeus, 1758) outbreak. Older forests and those with more complex structures (i.e., reverse-J DBH) were characterized by numerous small gaps but were also affected by a few larger disturbances. In some old-growth forests at highly productive sites, gaps could be so numerous that the long-term existence of old trees may become an exception. Over the past centuries, the natural range of variability of these Norway spruce forests in Bulgaria appears to have been shaped mostly by wind and bark beetle disturbances of various sizes.

Description: Exponential fertilization has been shown to be a useful technique for improving seedling quality during nursery production. In this study, we evaluated (i) the impact of exponential vs. conventional fertilization on trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) seedlings during nursery production and (ii) the growth performance and nitrogen (N) utilization of those seedlings in response to foxtail barley (Hordeum jubatum L.) competition after the transplantation of seedlings in a greenhouse experiment. Exponential fertilization with an application rate higher than the conventional fertilization increased the internal N reserve in trembling aspen and white spruce seedlings during nursery production and also increased new leaf, new stem, and old stem biomass and N retranslocation rates in trembling aspen seedlings but not in white spruce seedlings after transplantation. Foxtail barley competition decreased N concentrations in seedlings and soil N uptake by the seedlings; however, increased N retranslocation rates with foxtail barley competition were observed in white spruce seedlings but not in trembling aspen seedlings. Our results suggest that the growth performance of seedlings was improved by N loading, whereas the impact of vegetation management was species specific.

Description: Typical use of diversity indices in forest stands does not reflect within-stand variation in species and structure. Despite numerous efforts to design stand diversity indices that capture spatial variation in two- or three-dimensional space, the application of these indices is limited due to their complexity or lack of ecological relevance. In this research note, we illustrate the application of diversity indices at the neighbourhood scale using stem mapping data from a boreal mixedwood stand in northeastern Ontario, which was assessed before and after partial harvesting. Among the three diversity indices (Shannon species diversity, Shannon structural diversity by height class distribution, and structural diversity by height variation), neighbourhood structural diversity by height variation was less dependent on neighbourhood size (between 4 and 12 trees) and more sensitive to stand structural change than Shannon structural diversity by height class distribution. Despite general increases in Shannon species diversity and structural diversity by height variation at both stand and neighbourhood scales after the harvest — an indication of higher diversity — within-stand variation (coefficients of variation) in neighbourhood diversity values decreased, suggesting that residual stands were spatially more uniform after the harvest. Therefore, the neighbourhood diversity indices are useful for capturing spatial variation in species and structural diversity, especially in managed stands in which spatial distributions and patterns can be significantly modified by management interventions.

Description: Boreal forests in northern Alberta have a growing anthropogenic footprint due to a rapidly growing oil sands mining industry. Although land reclamation is a necessary aspect of responsible industrial development, these activities nearly always affect higher order landscape components such as the broader landform, and its hydrology and biogeochemistry. Recent anthropogenic impacts are then believed to result in new environmental conditions and obstacles under which the boreal forest is developing, potentially leading to irreversibly different environments that could be characterized as novel ecosystems. Reflecting an emerging trend across the field of restoration ecology, these novel ecosystems are not necessarily undesirable. Instead, they are an unavoidable consequence of pervading anthropogenic effects on natural ecosystems. It is our view that successful reclamation outcomes can still be derived so long as policy and regulatory requirements are afforded the necessary scope and economic flexibility to account for the development of hybrid and novel ecosystems among highly disturbed mine sites. Hence, this analysis seeks to situate current and anticipated challenges affecting the reclamation of boreal forest following oil sands mining by describing (i) how regulatory criteria shape reclamation practices and targeted end goals and (ii) how these approaches embody latest trends and priorities in the area of restoration ecology.

Description: Methods for constructing a sampling design for large area forest inventories are presented. The methods, data sets used, and the procedures are demonstrated in a real setting: constructing a sampling design for the first national forest inventory for Tanzania. The approach of the paper constructs a spatial model of forests, landscape, and land use. Sampling errors of the key parameters as well as the field measurement costs of the inventory were estimated using sampling simulation on data. Forests and land use often vary within a country or an area of interest, implying that stratified sampling is an efficient inventory design. Double sampling for stratification was taken for the statistical framework. The work was motivated by the approach used by The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in supporting nations to establish forest inventories. The approach taken deviates significantly from the traditional FAO approaches, making it possible to calculate forest resource estimates at the subnational level without increasing the costs.

Description: Automated individual tree detection and delineation from high spatial resolution imagery provides good opportunities for forest inventory at a large scale. However, the accuracy of delineated crown size compared with ground measurements may not be sufficient. Thus, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression is no longer an appropriate approach to estimating and predicting variables from the delineated tree crown because both response variable and regressor are subject to measurement errors. In this study, we describe the functional and structural relationships between field-measured tree variables (i.e., tree diameter and crown width) and delineated tree crown width from remotely sensed imagery. We investigated the performance of OLS and three error-in-variable regression techniques including maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), major axis (MA) regression, and reduced major axis (RMA) regression using field-measured data and simulated data under different conditions. Our results indicated that MLE was desirable for estimating unbiased model coefficients. However, the adjustment assumption of the MLE model should be checked for predicting tree variables from remotely sensed imagery. When the assumption holds, the MLE model performed better for predicting the response variables than did the OLS model. Otherwise, the MLE model produced biased predictions for the response variables.

Description: When a company is integrated vertically, it can manage and plan its overall value chain in one direct and integrated approach. However in many cases, companies follow a decoupled approach where forests and production plants optimize separately their processes in a supply-driven strategy. In Chile, the two largest forest companies are vertically integrated (i.e., they own forest and mills that produce logs, lumber, plywood, pulp, paper, and bioenergy, etc.). Historically, they have coordinated their value chains using a make-to-stock strategy, for which the forest is the main driver of the value chain activities. In this paper, we propose an integrated planning approach to show the impacts of a demand-driven integration of the value chain in the forest industry. To compare this strategy with the decoupled strategy, we propose a mixed integer programming (MIP) model for the integrated strategy. To illustrate our proposal, we use forest and production information from a Chilean forest company. The decoupled strategy, where the forest and industry planning are planned separately, uses two models. The first model deals with the forest management and harvesting decisions and maximizes the expected net present value (NPV) of logs. In this model, the planning horizon covers one full forest rotation, which in Chile corresponds to about 25 years. The second model maximizes the NPV of the downstream operations for a shorter business planning horizon (five years) constrained by the availability of the logs from the first model. In the integrated approach, all parts of the value chain (forest, transportation, and mills) are driven by final product demand and where the objective is to maximize the profit of the company (NPV of the entire value chain). The demand is only given for the shorter business planning horizon. The two strategies are evaluated using the MIP model, and NPV is used to determine the best practice. According to the results, the NPV can increase up to 5.0% when the proposed integrated strategy is implemented compared to a decoupled strategy. Moreover, the profit for the business period increases up to 8.5%.

Description: Understanding how forests respond to multiple disturbances is becoming increasingly important under global change. We examined the simultaneous influence of canopy decline and deer browsing on regeneration in an old-growth reserve and surrounding managed forest dominated by Fagus sylvatica L. and Abies alba Mill. in Slovenia. We quantified both disturbance processes by measuring characteristics of canopy gaps and reconstructing historical deer densities. Forest response was assessed with repeated measurements of tree regeneration and regeneration patterns within deer exclosures. Most gaps were formed by mortality of A. alba (71%), and gapmaker characteristics suggest that gaps formed slowly and often expanded, resulting in a mosaic of openings covering 17% of the old-growth reserve. Fagus sylvatica dominated the regeneration layer throughout the reserve and recruited to taller height classes over the past 26 years. The recruitment failure of preferred browse species (A. alba and Acer pseudoplatanus L.) in the reserve and the successful recruitment of these species within exclosures indicate that selective browsing by deer has altered the successional response to A. alba decline, facilitating the dominance of F. sylvatica. Given that global change may increase forest decline worldwide and the ubiquitous nature of deer browsing in many temperate forests, understanding their combined effects on forests will become increasingly important.

Description: It is widely accepted that N limits primary production in temperate forests, although colimitation by N and P has also been suggested, and on some soils, Ca and base cations are in short supply. I conducted a meta-analysis to assess the strength of existing experimental evidence for limitation of primary production by N, P, and Ca in hardwood forests of the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada using data from 35 fertilization experiments in deciduous forests on glaciated soils across the region. There is strong evidence for N limitation (formal meta-analysis weighted mean response ratio = 1.51, p 〈 0.01; simple mean = 1.42, p 〈 0.001). Forest productivity also tended to increase with additions of P (simple mean = 1.15, p = 0.05) and Ca (simple mean = 1.36, p 〈 0.001). Across all treatments, 85% of response ratios were positive. Multiple-element additions had larger effects than single elements, but factorial experiments showed little evidence of synergistic effects between nutrient additions. Production responses correlated positively with the rate of N fertilization, but this effect was reduced at high rates of ambient N deposition.

Description: The resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change depends on complex interactions among topography, water, soil, vegetation, and snow, which allow permafrost to persist at mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) as high as +2 °C and degrade at MAATs as low as –20 °C. To assess these interactions, we compiled existing data and tested effects of varying conditions on mean annual surface temperatures (MASTs) and 2 m deep temperatures (MADTs) through modeling. Surface water had the largest effect, with water sediment temperatures being ~10 °C above MAAT. A 50% reduction in snow depth reduces MADT by 2 °C. Elevation changes between 200 and 800 m increases MAAT by up to 2.3 °C and snow depths by ~40%. Aspect caused only a ~1 °C difference in MAST. Covarying vegetation structure, organic matter thickness, soil moisture, and snow depth of terrestrial ecosystems, ranging from barren silt to white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) forest to tussock shrub, affect MASTs by ~6 °C and MADTs by ~7 °C. Groundwater at 2–7 °C greatly affects lateral and internal permafrost thawing. Analyses show that vegetation succession provides strong negative feedbacks that make permafrost resilient to even large increases in air temperatures. Surface water, which is affected by topography and ground ice, provides even stronger negative feedbacks that make permafrost vulnerable to thawing even under cold temperatures.