ALBERT

Description: A detailed analysis of available in situ and remotely sensed N2O and CH4 data measured in the 1999/2000 winter Arctic vortex has been performed in order to quantify the temporal evolution of vortex descent. Differences in potential temperature (theta) among balloon and aircraft vertical profiles (an average of 19-23 K on a given N2O or CH4 isopleth) indicated significant vortex inhomogeneity in late fall as compared with late winter profiles. A composite fall vortex profile was constructed for 26 November 1999, whose error bars encompassed the observed variability. High-latitude extravortex profiles measured in different years and seasons revealed substantial variability in N2O and CH4 on theta surfaces, but all were clearly distinguishable from the first vortex profiles measured in late fall 1999. From these extravortex-vortex differences we inferred descent prior to 26 November: as much as 397 plus or minus 15 K (lsigma) at 30 ppbv N2O and 640 ppbv CH4, and falling to 28 plus or minus 13 K above 200 ppbv N2O and 1280 ppbv CH4. Changes in theta were determined on five N2O and CH4 isopleths from 26 November through 12 March, and descent rates were calculated on each N2O isopleth for several time intervals. The maximum descent rates were seen between 26 November and 27 January: 0.82 plus or minus 0.20 K/day averaged over 50- 250 ppbv N2O. By late winter (26 February to 12 March), the average rate had decreased to 0.10 plus or minus 0.25 K/day. Descent rates also decreased with increasing N2O; the winter average (26 November to 5 March) descent rate varied from 0.75 plus or minus 0.10 K/day at 50 ppbv to 0.40 plus or minus 0.11 K/day at 250 ppbv. Comparison of these results with observations and models of descent in prior years showed very good overall agreement. Two models of the 1999/2000 vortex descent, SLIMCAT and REPROBUS, despite theta offsets with respect to observed profiles of up to 20 K on most tracer isopleths, produced descent rates that agreed very favorably with the inferred rates from observation.

Description: Measurements from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) revealed the infrared signature of polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs), for the first time, HALOE PMC observations at eight wavelengths (2.45 - 10 microns) show remarkable agreement with model PMC spectra based on ice particle extinction, and thus provide the first confirmation that water ice is the primary component of PMCs. Because PMCs respond to changes in temperature and water vapor, they are considered an indicator of global climate change. We propose to further the understanding of PMCs using a decade of infrared measurements form HALOE. This effort will characterize PMC spectral properties, extinction profiles, and size distributions. Using this information, HALOE measurements will be used to make simultaneous retrievals of H2O3, and temperature, in the presence of PMCs. The simultaneous retrievals of particle properties, H2O3, and temperature will be used with HALOE NO data to provide a significant step forward in the knowledge of PMC characteristics and formation conditions. We will challenge fundamental theories of PMC formation, and investigate changes in PMC properties and related conditions over the length of the HALOE measurement record. HALOE has been operating without flaw since it was launched on October 11, 1991. Consequently, ten southern and ten northern PMC seasons have been observed thus far, providing a wealth of data for the study of PMC and related parameters.

Description: In dynamic meteorology, singular vectors (SVs) are the structures that maximize a given norm of a forecast perturbation given a tangent linear model and a quadratic constraint on the initial perturbation. That constraint is a prescription of the value of either the same or a different norm applied to the initial perturbations. In the sense that SVs maximize the forecast perturbations according to a specified measure, they may be considered as optimal perturbations. SVs are used to characterize predictability, to identify and correct possible initial errors given forecast errors, to create a set of significant perturbations for ensemble forecasting, or to determine locations for observation targeting. They are a specific application of generally defined singular vectors in mathematics.

Description: Land-atmosphere feedback, by which precipitation-induced soil moisture anomalies affect subsequent precipitation, may be an important element of Earth's climate system, but its very existence has never been demonstrated conclusively at regional to continental scales. Evidence for the feedback is sought in a 50-year observational precipitation dataset covering the United States. The precipitation variance and autocorrelation fields are characterized by features that agree (in structure, though not in magnitude) with those produced by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Because the model-generated features are known to result from land-atmosphere feedback alone, the observed features are highly suggestive of the existence of feedback in nature.

Description: The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided rainfall estimates which allows for comparisons with those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a low earth orbit satellite designed to measure rainfall from space. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1-km grid size) is used to understand and quantify the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over the South China Sea. This is the first (loud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE-model results captured many of the observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the temporal variation of the simulated rainfall compares quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall variation. The time and domain-averaged temperature (heating/cooling) and water vapor (drying/ moistening) budgets are in good agreement with observations. The GCE-model-simulated rainfall amount also agrees well with TRMM rainfall data. The results show there is more evaporation from the ocean surface prior to the onset of the monsoon than after the on-~et of monsoon when rainfall increases. Forcing due to net radiation (solar heating minus longwave cooling) is responsible for about 25% of the precipitation in SCSMEX The transfer of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere does not contribute significantly to the rainfall in SCSMEX. Model sensitivity tests indicated that total rain production is reduced 17-18% in runs neglecting the ice phase. The SCSMEX results are compared to other GCE-model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA). Large-scale forcing vie temperature and water vapor tendency, is the major energy source for net condensation in the tropical cases. The effects of large-scale cooling exceed that of large-scale moistening in the west pacific warm pool region and eastern Atlantic region. For SCSMEX, however, the effects of large-scale moistening predominate. Net radiation and sensible and latent hc,it fluxes play a much more important role in the central USA.

Description: A two-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model is used to simulate convective systems that developed in various geographic locations. Observed large-scale advective tendencies for potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum derived from field campaigns are used as the main forcing. By examining the surface energy budgets, the model results show that the two largest terms are net condensation (heating/drying) and imposed large-scale forcing (cooling/moistening) for tropical oceanic cases. These two terms arc opposite in sign, however. The contributions by net radiation and latent heat flux to the net condensation vary in these tropical cases, however. For cloud systems that developed over the South China Sea and eastern Atlantic, net radiation (cooling) accounts for about 20% or more of the net condensation. However, short-wave heating and long-wave cooling are in balance with each other for cloud systems over the West Pacific region such that the net radiation is very small. This is due to the thick anvil clouds simulated in the cloud systems over the Pacific region. Large-scale cooling exceeds large-scale moistening in the Pacific and Atlantic cases. For cloud systems over the South China Sea, however, there is more large-scale moistening than cooling even though the cloud systems developed in a very moist environment. though For three cloud systems that developed over a mid-latitude continent, the net radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes play a much more important role. This means the accurate measurement of surface fluxes and radiation is crucial for simulating these mid-latitude cases.

Description: The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM and is used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon in 1998. The BRUCE model includes the same land surface model, cloud physics, and radiation scheme used in the regional climate model. A comparison between the results from the GCE model and regional climate model is performed.

Description: The lack of an adequate ancient analogue for future climates means that we ultimately must use and trust climate models, evaluated against modern observation and our best geologic records of warm and cold climates of the past. Armed with an elevated confidence in the models, we will then be able to make reliable predictions of the Earth's response to our risky experiment with the climate system.

Description: The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua missions has shown considerable capability for mapping snowcover. The typical approach that has used, along with other criteria, the Normalized Snow Difference Index (NDSI) that takes the difference between 500 meter observations at 1.64 micrometers (MODIS band 6) and 0.555 micrometers (MODIS band 4) over the sum of these observations to determine whether MODIS pixels are snowcovered or not in mapping the extent of snowcover. For many hydrological and climate studies using remote sensing of snowcover, it is desirable to assess if the MODIS snowcover observations could not be enhanced by providing the fraction of snowcover in each MODIS observation (pixel). Pursuant to this objective studies have been conducted to assess whether there is sufficient "signal%o in the NDSI parameter to provide useful estimates of fractional snowcover in each MODIS 500 meter pixel. To accomplish this objective high spatial resolution (30 meter) Landsat snowcover observations were used and co-registered with MODIS 500 meter pixels. The NDSI approach was used to assess whether a Landsat pixel was or was not snowcovered. Then the number of snowcovered Landsat pixels within a MODIS pixel was used to determine the fraction of snowcover within each MODIS pixel. The e results were then used to develop statistical relationships between the NDSI value for each 500 meter MODIS pixel and the fraction of snowcover in the MODIS pixel. Such studies were conducted for three widely different areas covered by Landsat scenes in Alaska, Russia, and the Quebec Province in Canada. The statistical relationships indicate that a 10 percent accuracy can be attained. The variability in the statistical relationship for the three areas was found to be remarkably similar (-0.02 for mean error and less than 0.01 for mean absolute error and standard deviation). Independent tests of the relationships were accomplished by taking the relationship of fractional snow-cover to NDSI from one area (e.g., Alaska) and testing it on the other two areas (e.g. Russia and Quebec). Again the results showed that fractional snow-cover can be estimated to 10 percent. The results have been shown to have advantages over other published fractional snowcover algorithms applied to MODIS data. Most recently the fractional snow-cover algorithm has been applied using 500-meter observations over the state of Colorado for a period spanning 25 days. The results exhibit good behavior in mapping the spatial and temporal variability in snowcover over that 25-day period. Overall these studies indicate that robust estimates of fractional snow-cover can be attained using the NDSI parameter over areas extending in size from watersheds relatively large compared to MODIS pixels to global land cover. Other refinements to this approach as well as different approaches are being examined for mapping fractional snow-cover using MODIS observations.

Description: The 1997/98 is a strong El Nino warm event, while the 1998/99 is a moderate La Nina cold event. We have investigated surface heat budgets and sea surface temperature (SST) tendency for these two events in the tropical western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans using satellite-retrieved surface radiative and turbulent fluxes. The radiative fluxes are taken from the Goddard Satellite-retrieved Surface Radiation Budget (GSSRB), derived from radiance measurements of the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 5. The GSSRB covers the domain 40 deg S - 4 deg N, 90 deg E-17 deg W and a period from October 1997 to December 2000. The spatial resolution is 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg lat-long and the temporal resolution is 1 day. The turbulent fluxes are taken from Version 2 of the Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF-2). The GSSTF-2 has a spatial resolution of 1 deg x 1 deg lat-long over global Oceans and a temporal resolution of 1 day covering the period July 1987-December 2000. Daily turbulent fluxes are derived from the S S M (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) surface wind and surface air humidity, and the SST and 2-m air temperature of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, using a stability-dependent bulk flux algorithm. The changes of surface heat budgets, SST and tendency, cloudiness, wind speed, and zonal wind stress of the 1997/98 El Nino relative to the1998/99 La Nina for the northern winter and spring seasons are analyzed. The relative changes of surface heat budgets and SST tendency of the two events are quite different between the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. For the tropical western Pacific, reduced solar heating (more clouds) is generally associated with decreased evaporative cooling (weaker winds), and vise versa. The changes in evaporative cooling over-compensate that of solar heating and dominate the spatial variability of the changes in net surface heating. Both solar heating and evaporative cooling offset each other to reduce interannual variability of net surface heating. In addition, the area of increased SST tendency is larger than that of increased net surface heating, due to less solar radiation penetration through the bottom of deeper ocean mixed layer (stronger winds). For the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, enhanced solar heating (less clouds) is generally associated with reduced evaporative cooling (weaker winds). Both solar heating and evaporative cooling reinforce each other to increase interannual variability of net surface heating. In addition, the area of increased SST tendency is smaller than that of increased net surface heating in the southern domain. The relative changes in wind and zonal wind stress indicate more solar radiation penetration through the ocean mixed layer and more northward heat transport by Ocean current from the south to the north Indian Ocean for the El Nino than for the La Nina.