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1

Electronic Resource

Factor biases and promoting sustainable development: Adaptation to drought in the Senegal River Basin (1996)

Venema, Henry D. ; Schiller, Eric J. ; Bass, Brad

Springer

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165

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ISSN: 1573-1596

Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography

Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00455057

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2

Electronic Resource

Factor Biases and Promoting Sustainable Development: Adaptation to Drought in the Senegal River Basin (1996)

Venema, Henry D. ; Schiller, Eric J. ; Bass, Brad

Springer

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165

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ISSN: 1573-1596

Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography

Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027382.26287.8c

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3

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Vulnerability of rice and corn to climate change in the Philippines (1996)

Buan, R. D. ; Maglinao, A. R. ; Evangelista, P. P. ; [et al.]

Springer

Water, air & soil pollution 92 (1996), S. 41-51

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ISSN: 1573-2932

Keywords: Philippines ; agriculture ; rice ; corn ; CCCM ; CERES-Corn ; CERES-Rice ; GFDL ; GISS ; UKMO

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering

Notes: Abstract The potential impact of climate change on rice and corn crops in the Philippines was assessed using preliminary results from four general circulation models and the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer. The results showed both increases and decreases in the yield of two rice varieties. The results for corn showed a consistent decrease in yield. The decrease in crop yield may be due to a shorter maturity period and an increase in potential evapotranspiration as a result of increased daytime and nighttime temperatures, which are critical to dry matter production. Rainfall in tropical areas such as the Philippines is generally high, and so a decrease in rainfall of only 10% may not affect the water supply significantly, but an increase of the same magnitude may affect crop production tremendously because of frequent occurrences of floods. One potential negative impact not included in this analysis is the effects of strong winds due to typhoons.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00175551

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4

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Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in Asia and the Pacific: Workshop summary (1996)

Amadore, L. ; Bolhofer, W. C. ; Cruz, R. V. ; [et al.]

Springer

Water, air & soil pollution 92 (1996), S. 1-12

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ISSN: 1573-2932

Keywords: Asia ; Pacific island nations ; adaptation ; agriculture ; forest ; coastal resources ; water resources ; sea level rise ; national action plans

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering

Notes: Abstract The Regional Workshop on Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Asia and the Pacific metto present and discuss assessments of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in agriculture, forests, coastal resources, and water resources. Discussions were held in breakout and plenary sessions about the state of the science for vulnerability and adaptation assessment, conclusions that can be drawn about the vulnerability of the region to climate change, and where future research efforts should be directed. The workshop concluded that sea level rise is of greatest concern to island and coastal nations in the region, climate change will have a significant effect on agriculture, water resources are sensitive to changes in average climate conditions and to tropical monsoons and cyclones, and forests could be significantly affected by climate change. The workshop recommended that efforts to improve general circulation models continue and that countries in the region cooperate on the analyses of vulnerability and addressing adaptation measures. The workshop also concluded that results of vulnerability and adaptation assessments should be presented to policy makers and the public and that assessments continue to be undertaken to improve our understanding of the issue.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00175548

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5

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Effects of interannual climate variability and climate change on rice yield in Java, Indonesia (1996)

Amien, I. ; Rejekiningrum, P. ; Pramudia, A. ; [et al.]

Springer

Water, air & soil pollution 92 (1996), S. 29-39

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ISSN: 1573-2932

Keywords: Indonesia ; Java ; agriculture ; rice ; drought ; El Nino ; GFDL ; GISS ; UKMO

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering

Notes: Abstract About 60% of the nearly 40 x 106 t of rice produced in Indonesia are from the island of Java. However, the rice self-sufficiency that has been attained and maintained since 1984 could be threatened by changing climate, and has been affected by the climate variability effects of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. To aid policy makers and planners in formulating strategic policy options, the effects of recurring droughts and possible climate change on rice yields were studied using climate and crop models. Three models were used to simulate climate change: those of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. Several climate scenarios were generated for Ngawi, in East Java, and Sukamandi, in West Java. These models indicate that doubling greenhouse gases would increase solar radiation by 1.2–2.1%, minimum and maximum temperatures by 7.6–16.8°C, and precipitation by 20.5–91.7%. The Goddard Institute for Space Studies transient climate change scenarios indicate that maximum and minimum temperatures would increase by 3.5 and 4.9%, respectively, in 2010, 6.9 and 9.8%, respectively, in 2030, and 11.1 and 15.7%, respectively, in 2050. The rainfall Agrotechnology Transfer crop model slightly under-predicts lowland rice yields of several experimental plots in three sites in Java and one site in Sumatra, but the results are almost equal to or a little higher than farm level yields. Nevertheless, the simulation outputs and experimental plots yields are closely related with a coefficient of determination value of 87%. Changes in climate in the decades of 2010, 2030, and 2050 could drastically reduce rice yield: the rice yield is estimated to decrease by about 1 % annually in East Java and less in West Java. Currently, the rice yields in dry

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00175550

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6

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Agricultural vulnerability and adaptation to global warming in China (1996)

Erda, Lin

Springer

Water, air & soil pollution 92 (1996), S. 63-73

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ISSN: 1573-2932

Keywords: China ; agriculture ; maize ; rice ; wheat ; GFDL ; MPI ; UKMO

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering

Notes: Abstract This paper discusses the vulnerability and adaptation of the agricultural sector of China to global warming. Based on a summarization of Chinese agricultural and general circulation model trends, adverse impacts on China's agriculture caused by a warming and drying climate were identified. Because of limited irrigation potential, the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture will be difficult. Six sensitive agricultural areas located on the edges of different agroecological zones, and seven provinces with high vulnerability to the impacts on agriculture, were identified. On the basis of an estimation ofthe potential supply of agricultural products and demand for food, the annual incremental costs for adaptation to climate change would be US$0.8–3.48 billion; without adaptation, the annual agricultural loss due to global warming would be US$1.37–79.98 billion from 2000 to 2050. Adaptive measures discussed include intensive management and the possibility of a tripartite structure of planting that would entail coordinated development of gain crops, feed crops, and cash crops.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00175553

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7

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Assessing impacts of climatic variations on foodgrain prpduction in Bangladesh (1996)

Karim, Z. ; Hussain, S. G. ; Ahmed, M.

Springer

Water, air & soil pollution 92 (1996), S. 53-62

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ISSN: 1573-2932

Keywords: Bangladesh ; agriculture ; rice ; wheat ; CCCM ; CERES-Rice ; CERES-Wheat ; GFDL

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering

Notes: Abstract A simulation study was conducted to assess the vulnerability of foodgrain production in Bangladesh to potential climate change. Simulation runs were made for high yield varieties office for Aus (March-August), Aman (July-November), and Boro (February-July), the traditional growing seasons, using the CERES-Rice model. Simulation runs were made for wheat, which is grown from November through March, using the CERES-Wheat model. Three scenarios (baseline, Canadian Climate Centre Model, and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) and sensitivity analyses for temperature increases of 2 and 4°C at three levels of CO2 (330, 580, and 660 ppm) were used. In the simulation, increased CO2 levels increased rice yields over baseline, and considerable spatial and temporal variations were noted. Higher temperatures reduced the yields in almost all study locations and in all seasons, and it was particularly pronounced with a 4°C increase. The detrimental effect of temperature rise was observed even with increased CO2 levels. Wheat yields increased with increased CO2 level in all three locations. The adverse effects of increased temperature were more pronounced for wheat than for rice at all levels of increased CO2. In the scenarios of the Canadian Climate Centre Model and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, both rice and wheat yields were decreased (35% and 31 %, respectively) over baseline in all seasons, especially in the Aus season, and in all locations. The adverse effects of the climate under the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory scenario were more pronounced for wheat that for rice. The greatest reductions in aggregated production for both crops were noted at 330 PPM CO2 with a 4°C temperature rise. The greatest increases in aggregated production for rice and wheat were observed at a 660 ppm CO2 with no temperature increase.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00175552

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8

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The impacts of potential climate change and climate variability on simulated maize production in China (1996)

Jinghua, Wang ; Erda, Lin

Springer

Water, air & soil pollution 92 (1996), S. 75-85

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ISSN: 1573-2932

Keywords: China ; agriculture ; maize ; GFDL ; MPI ; UKMO

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering

Notes: Abstract This study assessed the impacts of potential climate change on maize yields in China, using the CERES-Maize model under rainfed and irrigated conditions, based on 35 maize modeling sites in eastern China that characterize the main maize regions. The Chinese Weather Generator was developed to generate a long time series of daily climate data as baseline climate for 51 sites in China. Climate change scenarios were created from three equilibrium general circulation models: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, the high-resolution United Kingdom Meteorological Office model, and the Max Planck Institute model. At most sites, simulated yields of both rainfed and irrigated maize decreased under climate change scenarios, primarily because of increases in temperature, which shorten maize growth duration, particularly the grain-filling period. Decreases of simulated yields varied across the general circulation model scenarios. Simulated yields increased at only a few northern sites, probably because maize growth is currently temperature-limited at these relatively high latitudes. To analyze the possible impacts of climate variability on maize yield, we specified incremental changes to variabilities of temperature and precipitation and applied these changes to the general circulation model scenarios to create sensitivity scenarios. Arbitrary climate variability sensitivity tests were conducted at three sites in the North China Plain to test maize model responses to a range of changes (0%, +10%, and +20%) inthe monthly standard deviations of temperature and monthly variation coefficients of precipitation. The results from the three sites showed that incremental climate variability caused simulated yield decreases, and the decreases in rainfed yield were greater than those of irrigated yield.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00175554

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9

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Vulnerability of Sri Lanka tea production to global climate change (1996)

Wijeratne, M. A.

Springer

Water, air & soil pollution 92 (1996), S. 87-94

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ISSN: 1573-2932

Keywords: Sri Lanka ; agriculture ; tea

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering

Notes: Abstract The tea industry is Sri Lanka's main net foreign exchange earner and source of income for the majority of laborers. Tea yield is greatly influenced by weather, and especially by droughts, which cause irreparable losses because irrigation is seldom used on tea plantations. At the other extreme, heavy rains erode top soil and wash away fertilizers and other chemicals. In the recently published Sri Lanka country report on climate change, it was reported that the island will experience extreme rainfall intensities and warmer temperatures as a result of climate change. The possibility of a 10% increase in the length of dry and wet seasons per year in the main plantation area was also indicated. Thus both drought damages and soil losses in tea production areas will increase in the years to come. An analysis of the results of field experiments with weather data shows that increases in temperature, soil moisture deficit, and saturation vapor pressure deficit in the low elevations will adversely affect growth and yield of tea. Reports have also shown that about 30 cm of soil has already been eroded from upland tea plantations. Under these circumstances, the tea industry in Sri Lanka is clearly vulnerable to predicted climate changes, and subsequently greater economic, social, and environmental problems. This paper discusses the various aspects of the adverse effects of climate change on Sri Lanka's tea industry.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00175555

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