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  • expected utility  (5)
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  • 1985-1989  (5)
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  • 1
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 5-35 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Schlagwort(e): Ambiguity ; expected utility ; insurance ; risk ; subjective probability
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract In a series of experiments, economically sophisticated subjects, including professional actuaries, priced insurance both as consumers and as firms under conditions of ambiguity. Findings support implications of the Einhorn-Hogarth ambiguity model: (1) For low probability-of-loss events, prices of both consumers and firms indicated aversion to ambiguity; (2) As probabilities of losses increased, aversion to ambiguity decreased, with consumers exhibiting ambiguity preference for high probability-of-loss events; and (3) Firms showed greater aversion to ambiguity than consumers. The results are shown to be incompatible with traditional economic analysis of insurance markets and are discussed with respect to the effects of ambiguity on the supply and demand for insurance.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
  • 2
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 235-263 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Schlagwort(e): risk ; expected utility ; irrationality ; prospect theory
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This article develops a variant of the expected utility model termed prospective reference theory. Although the standard model occurs as a limiting case, the general approach is that individuals treat stated experimental probabilities as imperfect information. This model is applied to a wide variety of aberrant phenomena, including the Allais paradox, the overweighting of low-probability events, the existence of premiums for certain elimination of risks, and the representativeness heuristic. The prospective reference theory model predicts most of the observed behavioral patterns rather than being potentially reconcilable with such phenomena.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
  • 3
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 385-403 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Schlagwort(e): social preferences ; expected utility ; optimum insurance ; inclusive welfare ; state-consistent preferences
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This article extends Bergsonian welfare analysis to an environment of uncertainty where preferences are not expected utility and may even be state-inconsistent. Given state-inconsistent preferences, the familiar notion of ex ante efficiency is also state-inconsistent. Other efficiency and welfare concepts achieve state consistency by ignoring entirely the prospective preferences of consumers. The framework developed in this article allows welfare judgments to be state-consistent while respecting prospective and conditional preferences. The theory is called inclusive welfare. An application to optimum insurance subsidies illustrates the practical use of the concept.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
  • 4
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 61-104 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Schlagwort(e): expected utility ; generalized utility ; nonexpected utility ; risky choice ; Allais paradox
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract There is much evidence that people willingly violate expected utility theory when making choices. Several axiomatic theories have been proposed to explain some of this evidence, but there are few data that discriminate between the theories. To gather such data, an experiment was conducted using pairs of gambles with three levels of outcomes and many combinations of probabilities. Most typical findings were replicated, including the common consequence effect and different risk attitudes for gains and losses. There is evidence of both fanning out and fanning in of indifference curves, and both quasiconcavity and quasiconvexity of preferences. No theory can explain all the data, but prospect theory and the hypothesis that indifference curves fan out can explain most of them.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
  • 5
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Theory and decision 27 (1989), S. 93-106 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Schlagwort(e): cognition ; decision ; graphs ; artificial intelligence ; risk ; uncertainty ; expert systems ; expected utility
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Sociologie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract In the first part, we try to give a representation of the process by which man endeavours to grasp uncertainty. We propose a backward exploration which we will modelize through an influence diagram and then we can draw a few conclusions from that representation for the axiomatics of Decision. In the second part, we deal with the processing of the information formatted in such a way, regarding both its temporal complexity and its elective complexity. The first part as the second one dealing with representation and the consequences for information processing of uncertainty cognition lead to a severe criticism of the expected utility hypothesis. To conclude, we suggest a few remarks on expert systems of decision aid under uncertainty.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
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