ALBERT

Description: Kinematics of a mass movement constrained by sparse and inhomogeneous data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1609-1618, 2011 Author(s): M. Karbon, E. Brückl, E. Hegedüs, and A. Preh On 12 February 2008, a landslide occurred along a 50 m high bank of the Danube river near Dunaszekcsö, Hungary. The initial state is only incompletely documented and the geodetic data acquired after the mass movement are sparse. A generalized 3-D topographic model of the landslide and its surrounding area was assembled and a representative longitudinal profile extracted. The reconstruction of the original surface is based on an orthophoto as well as on morphological considerations. Recorded observations include the locations of the outcrops of basal sliding surfaces, displacements at the main scarp and in the lower part of the slide, and a value to describe the total mass transport. Such sparse and inhomogeneous data were insufficient to derive a comprehensive documentation of the landslide or obtain adequate constraints for an accurate numerical analysis. Therefore, slider block models were fitted to the field data, which have only a small number of free parameters. A general view on the morphology of the mass movement justifies its classification as a rotational slide. A double slider block model fits all observational parameters within their error margin and supplies valuable information on the geometry of the slide. Estimates of the residual friction angles were derived and the question of reactivation was addressed. Finite Difference (FD) modelling and the application of conventional stability analysis support the geometry of the slider blocks and the computed average residual friction angles. Generally, the results are assumed to represent preliminary information, which could only be attained by the combination of the thinly distributed geodetic data with qualitative morphological observations and the implementation of a model. This type of information can be gained quickly and may be valuable for preliminary hazard mitigation measures or the planning of a comprehensive exploration and monitoring program.

Description: Impact of changes in grain size and pore space on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization response of sand Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1785-1794, 2011 Author(s): K. Koch, A. Kemna, J. Irving, and K. Holliger Understanding the influence of pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization (SIP) response is critical for establishing relationships between the electrical and hydrological properties of surficial unconsolidated sedimentary deposits, which host the bulk of the world's readily accessible groundwater resources. Here, we present the results of laboratory SIP measurements on industrial-grade, saturated quartz samples with granulometric characteristics ranging from fine sand to fine gravel. We altered the pore space characteristics by changing (i) the grain size spectra, (ii) the degree of compaction, and (iii) the level of sorting. We then examined how these changes affect the SIP response, the hydraulic conductivity, and the specific surface area of the considered samples. In general, the results indicate a clear connection between the SIP response and the granulometric as well as pore space characteristics. In particular, we observe a systematic correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and the relaxation time of the Cole-Cole model describing the observed SIP effect for the entire range of considered grain sizes. The results do, however, also indicate that the detailed nature of these relations depends strongly on variations in the pore space characteristics, such as, for example, the degree of compaction. This underlines the complexity of the origin of the SIP signal as well as the difficulty to relate it to a single structural factor of a studied sample, and hence raises some fundamental questions with regard to the practical use of SIP measurements as site- and/or sample-independent predictors of the hydraulic conductivity.

Description: WRF simulation of a precipitation event over the Tibetan Plateau, China – an assessment using remote sensing and ground observations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1795-1817, 2011 Author(s): F. Maussion, D. Scherer, R. Finkelnburg, J. Richters, W. Yang, and T. Yao Meteorological observations over the Tibetan Plateau (TiP) are scarce, and precipitation estimations over this remote region are difficult. The constantly improving capabilities of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models offer the opportunity to reduce this problem by providing precipitation fields and other meteorological variables of high spatial and temporal resolution. Longer time periods of years to decades can be simulated by NWP models by successive model runs of shorter periods, which can be described by the term "regional atmospheric reanalysis". In this paper, we assess the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models capacity in retrieving rain- and snowfall on the TiP in such a configuration using a nested approach: the simulations are conducted with three nested domains at spatial resolutions of 30, 10, and 2 km. A validation study is carried out for a one-month period with a special focus on one-week (22–28 October 2008), during which strong rain- and snowfall was observed on the TiP. The output of the model in each resolution is compared to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data set for precipitation and to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data set for snow extent. TRMM and WRF data are then compared to weather-station measurements. Our results suggest an overall improvement from WRF over TRMM with respect to weather-station measurements. Various configurations of the model with different nesting and forcing strategies, as well as physical parameterisation schemes are compared to propose a suitable design for a regional atmospheric reanalysis over the TiP. The WRF model showed good accuracy in simulating snow- and rainfall on the TiP for a one-month simulation period. Our study reveals that there is nothing like an optimal model strategy applicable for the high-altitude TiP, its fringing high-mountain areas of extremely complex topography and the low-altitude land and sea regions from which much of the precipitation on the TiP is originating. The choice of the physical parameterisation scheme will thus be always a compromise depending on the specific purpose of a model simulation. Our study demonstrates the high importance of orographic precipitation, but the problem of the orographic bias remains unsolved since reliable observational data are still missing. The results are relevant for anyone interested in carrying out a regional atmospheric reanalysis. Many hydrological analyses and applications like rainfall-runoff modelling or the analysis of flood events require precipitation rates at daily or even hourly intervals. Thus, our study offers a process-oriented alternative for retrieving precipitation fields of high spatio-temporal resolution in regions like the TiP, where other data sources are limited.

Description: Looking for evidence of climate change impacts in the eastern Irish Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1641-1656, 2011 Author(s): L. S. Esteves, J. J. Williams, and J. M. Brown Although storminess is often cited as a driver of long-term coastal erosion, a lack of suitable datasets has only allowed objective assessment of this claim in a handful of case studies. This reduces our ability to understand and predict how the coastline may respond to an increase in "storminess" as suggested by global and regional climate models. With focus on 16 km of the Sefton coastline bordering the eastern Irish Sea (UK), this paper analyses available measured datasets of water level, surge level, wave height, wind speed and barometric pressure with the objective of finding trends in metocean climate that are consistent with predictions. The paper then examines rates of change in shoreline position over the period 1894 to 2005 with the aim of establishing relationships with climatic variability using a range of measured and modelled metocean parameters (with time spans varying from two to eight decades). With the exception of the mean monthly wind speed, available metocean data do not indicate any statistically significant changes outside seasonal and decadal cycles. No clear relationship was found between changes in metocean conditions and rates of shoreline change along the Sefton coast. High interannual variability and the lack of long-term measurements make unambiguous correlations between climate change and shoreline evolution problematic. However, comparison between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAOw) and coastline changes suggest increased erosion at times of decreasing NAOw values and reduced erosion at times of increasing NAOw values. Erosion tends to be more pronounced when decreasing NAOw values lead to a strong negative NAO phase. At present, anthropogenic changes in the local sediment budget and the short-term impact of extreme events are still the largest threat likely to affect coastal flooding and erosion risk in the short- and medium-term. Nevertheless, the potential impacts of climate change in the long-term should not be ignored.

Description: Comparing historical-hydrogeomorphological reconstitution and hydrological-hydraulic modelling in the estimation of flood-prone areas – a case study in Central Portugal Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1669-1681, 2011 Author(s): P. P. Santos, A. O. Tavares, and A. I. A. S. S. Andrade The Arunca River basin in Central Portugal has a historical record of hazardous events related to floods, causing widespread disturbance. This article describes the application of two approaches based on well-known methods for the estimation of flood-prone areas: (i) historical-hydrogeomorphological reconstitution, applied to the entire Arunca River basin, and (ii) hydrological-hydraulic modelling, applied to four sections selected from different (upper, middle and lower) sectors of the basin and including urban and rural areas along the Arunca River. The mapping of the flood-prone areas obtained by these two methods was compared in order to identify the main differences and similarities. Human interventions (river channel and floodplain morphological changes) were found to be the main factor explaining the differences and similarities between the results obtained by both methods. The application of hydrological-hydraulic modelling proved important in reinforcing the results of the historical-hydrogeomorphological method; it also helped in complementing the results produced by the latter method in urban areas and in areas with insufficient historical records. The application of the historical-hydrogeomorphological method, in turn, allowed for the size of the flood-prone areas to be determined where the primary data (e.g. geometry, roughness and flow) was not accurate enough for hydrological-hydraulic modelling. The methodological approach adopted demonstrates the strong complementary relationship between the different existing methods for estimating flood-prone areas, and may be reproduced for other drainage basins.

Description: Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5701-5732, 2011 Author(s): J. E. Horn and T. Harter Onsite wastewater treatment systems such as septic systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25–30 % of households are served by a septic system and a private drinking water well. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. Particularly in areas with small lots, thus a high septic system density, these typically shallow wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Typically, mass balance approaches are used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of the aquifer. In this study, we estimate the probability of a well pumping partially septic system leachate. A detailed groundwater and transport model is used to calculate the capture zone of a typical drinking water well. A spatial probability analysis is performed to assess the probability that a capture zone overlaps with a septic system drainfield depending on aquifer properties, lot and drainfield size. We show that a high septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We conclude that mass balances calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances which experience limited attenuation, and those being harmful even in low concentrations.

Description: The contribution of engineering surveys by means of GPS to the determination of crustal movements in Istanbul Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1705-1713, 2011 Author(s): M. Özyaşar and M. T. Özlüdemir Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are space based positioning techniques and widely used in geodetic applications. Geodetic networking accomplished by engineering surveys constitutes one of these tasks. Geodetic networks are used as the base of all kinds of geodetic implementations, Co from the cadastral plans to the relevant surveying processes during the realization of engineering applications. Geodetic networks consist of control points positioned in a defined reference frame. In fact, such positional information could be useful for other studies as well. One of such fields is geodynamic studies that use the changes of positions of control stations within a network in a certain time period to understand the characteristics of tectonic movements. In Turkey, which is located in tectonically active zones and struck by major earthquakes quite frequently, the positional information obtained in engineering surveys could be very useful for earthquake related studies. For this purpose, a GPS (Global Positioning System) network of 650 stations distributed over Istanbul (Istanbul GPS Triangulation Network; abbreviated IGNA) covering the northern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) was established in 1997 and measured in 1999. From 1998 to 2004, the IGNA network was extended to 1888 stations covering an area of about 6000 km 2 , the whole administration area of Istanbul. All 1888 stations within the IGNA network were remeasured in 2005. In these two campaigns there existed 452 common points, and between these two campaigns two major earthquakes took place, on 17 August and 12 November 1999 with a Richter scale magnitude of 7.4 and 7.2, respectively. Several studies conducted for estimating the horizontal and vertical displacements as a result of these earthquakes on NAFZ are discussed in this paper. In geodynamic projects carried out before the earthquakes in 1999, an annual average velocity of 2–2.5 cm for the stations along the NAFZ were estimated. Studies carried out using GPS observations in the same area after these earthquakes indicated that point displacements vary depending on their distance to the epicentres of the earthquakes. But the directions of point displacements are similar. The results obtained through the analysis of the IGNA network also show that there is a common trend in the directions of point displacements in the study area. In this paper, the past studies about the tectonics of Marmara region are summarised and the results of the displacement analysis on the IGNA network are discussed.

Description: Use of ENVISAT ASAR Global Monitoring Mode to complement optical data in the mapping of rapid broad-scale flooding in Pakistan Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5769-5809, 2011 Author(s): D. O'Grady, M. Leblanc, and D. Gillieson Envisat ASAR Global Monitoring Mode (GM) data are used to produce maps of the extent of the flooding in Pakistan which are made available to the rapid response effort within 24 h of acquisition. The high temporal frequency and independence of the data from cloud-free skies makes GM data a viable tool for mapping flood waters during those periods where optical satellite data is unavailable, which may be crucial to rapid response disaster planning, where thousands of lives are affected. Image differencing techniques are used, with pre-flood baseline image backscatter values being deducted from target values to eliminate regions with a permanent flood-like radar response due to volume scattering and attenuation, and to highlight the low response caused by specular reflection by open flood water. The effect of local incidence angle on the received signal is mitigated by ensuring that the deducted image is acquired from the same orbit track as the target image. Poor separability of the water class with land in areas beyond the river channels is tackled using a region-growing algorithm which seeks threshold-conformance from seed pixels at the center of the river channels. The resultant mapped extents are tested against MODIS SWIR data where available, with encouraging results.

Description: Soil weathering rates in 21 catchments of the Canadian Shield Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5743-5768, 2011 Author(s): D. Houle, P. Lamoureux, N. Bélanger, M. Bouchard, C. Gagnon, S. Couture, and A. Bouffard Soil mineral weathering represents an essential source of nutrient base cation (Ca, Mg and K) for forest growth in addition to provide a buffering power against precipitation acidity for soils and surface waters. Weathering rates of base cations were obtained for 21 catchments located within the temperate and the boreal forest of the Canadian Shield with the geochemical model PROFILE. Weathering rates ranged from 0.58 to 4.46 kmol c ha −1 yr −1 and their spatial variation within the studied area was mostly in agreement with spatial variations in soil mineralogy. Weathering rates of Ca and Mg were significantly correlated ( r = 0.80 and 0.64) with their respective lake concentrations. Weathering rates of K and Na did not correlate with lake concentrations of K and Na. The modeled weathering rates for each catchment were also compared with estimations of net catchment exportations. The result show that modeled weathering rates of Ca were not significantly different than the net catchment exportations while modeled weathering rates of Mg were higher by 51 %. Larger differences were observed for K and Na weathering rates that were significantly different than net catchment exportations being 6.9 and 2.2 times higher than net exportations, respectively. The results for K were expected given its high reactivity with biotic compartments and suggest that most of the K produced by weathering reactions was retained within soil catchments and/or above ground biomass. This explanation does not apply to Na, however, which is a conservative element in forest ecosystems because of the insignificant needs of Na for soil microorganisms and above ground vegetations. It raises concern about the liability of the PROFILE model to provide reliable values of Na weathering rates. Overall, we concluded that the PROFILE model is powerful enough to reproduce spatial geographical gradients in weathering rates for relatively large areas as well as adequately predict absolute weathering rates values for the sum of base cations, Ca and Mg.

Description: Spatio-temporal variations in soil moisture and physicochemical properties of a typical semiarid sand-meadow-desert landscape as influenced by land use Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1865-1877, 2011 Author(s): L. Duan, T. Liu, X. Wang, G. Wang, L. Ma, and Y. Luo A good understanding of the interrelations between land cover alteration and changes in hydrologic conditions (e.g., soil moisture) as well as soil physicochemical properties (e.g., fine soil particles and nutrients) is crucial for maintaining the fragile hydrologic and environmental conditions of semiarid land, such as the Horqin Sandy Land in China, but is lacking in existing literature. The objectives of this study were to examine: (1) spatio-temporal variations of soil moisture and physicochemical properties in semiarid land; and (2) how those variations are influenced by land cover alteration. Using the data collected in a 9.71 km 2 well-instrumented area of the Horqin Sandy Land, this study examined by visual examination and statistical analyses the spatio-temporal variations of soil moisture and physicochemical properties. The results indicated that for the study area, the soil moisture and physicochemical properties were dependent on local topography, soil texture, vegetation density, and human activity. Long-term reclamation for agriculture was found to reduce soil moisture by over 23 % and significantly (p-value 〈 0.05) lower the contents of soil organic matter, fine soil particles, and nutrients.

Description: Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1723-1743, 2011 Author(s): P. Jaiswal, C. J. van Westen, and V. Jetten A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms. An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides), while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures. For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1) landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2) the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3) landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4) distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve). The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in each magnitude class and the corresponding minimum, average, and maximum run-out distances and vulnerability values, thus obtaining a range of risk values per return period. The results indicate that the total annual minimum, average, and maximum losses are about US$ 44 000, US$ 136 000 and US$ 268 000, respectively. The maximum risk to population varies from 2.1 × 10 −1 for one or more lives lost to 6.0 × 10 −2 yr −1 for 100 or more lives lost. The obtained results will provide a basis for planning risk reduction strategies in the Nilgiri area.

Description: Brief communication "Snow profile associated measurements (SPAM) – a new instrument for quick snow profile measurements" The Cryosphere Discussions, 5, 1737-1748, 2011 Author(s): P. Lahtinen A new instrument concept (SPAM) for snow profile associated measurements is presented. The potential of the concept is demonstrated by presenting preliminary results obtained with the prototype instrument. With this concept it is possible to retrieve rapid snow profiles of e.g. light extinction, reflectance, temperature and snow layer structure with high vertical resolution. As a side-product, also snow depth is retrieved.

Description: The role of catchment classification in rainfall-runoff modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6113-6153, 2011 Author(s): Y. He, A. Bárdossy, and E. Zehe A sound catchment classification scheme is a fundamental step towards improved catchment hydrology science and prediction in ungauged basins. Two categories of catchment classification methods are presented in the paper. The first one is based directly on physiographic properties and climatic conditions over a catchment and regarded as a Linnaean type or natural classification scheme. The second one is based on numerical clustering and regionalization methods and considered as a statistical or arbitrary classification scheme. This paper reviews each category including what has been done since recognition of the intrinsic value of catchment classification, what is being done in the current research, as well as what is to be done in the future.

Description: Anatomy of extraordinary rainfall and flash flood in a Dutch lowland catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1991-2005, 2011 Author(s): C. C. Brauer, A. J. Teuling, A. Overeem, Y. van der Velde, P. Hazenberg, P. M. M. Warmerdam, and R. Uijlenhoet On 26 August 2010 the eastern part of The Netherlands and the bordering part of Germany were struck by a series of rainfall events lasting for more than a day. Over an area of 740 km 2 more than 120 mm of rainfall were observed in 24 h. This extreme event resulted in local flooding of city centres, highways and agricultural fields, and considerable financial loss. In this paper we report on the unprecedented flash flood triggered by this exceptionally heavy rainfall event in the 6.5 km 2 Hupsel Brook catchment, which has been the experimental watershed employed by Wageningen University since the 1960s. This study aims to improve our understanding of the dynamics of such lowland flash floods. We present a detailed hydrometeorological analysis of this extreme event, focusing on its synoptic meteorological characteristics, its space-time rainfall dynamics as observed with rain gauges, weather radar and a microwave link, as well as the measured soil moisture, groundwater and discharge response of the catchment. At the Hupsel Brook catchment 160 mm of rainfall was observed in 24 h, corresponding to an estimated return period of well over 1000 years. As a result, discharge at the catchment outlet increased from 4.4 × 10 −3 to nearly 5 m 3 s −1 . Within 7 h discharge rose from 5 × 10 −2 to 4.5 m 3 s −1 . The catchment response can be divided into four phases: (1) soil moisture reservoir filling, (2) groundwater response, (3) surface depression filling and surface runoff and (4) backwater feedback. The first 35 mm of rainfall were stored in the soil without a significant increase in discharge. Relatively dry initial conditions (in comparison to those for past discharge extremes) prevented an even faster and more extreme hydrological response.

Description: On the value of combined event runoff and tracer analysis to improve understanding of catchment functioning in a data-scarce semi-arid area Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2007-2024, 2011 Author(s): M. Hrachowitz, R. Bohte, M. L. Mul, T. A. Bogaard, H. H. G. Savenije, and S. Uhlenbrook Hydrological processes in small catchments are not quite understood yet, which is true in particular for catchments in data scarce, semi-arid regions. This is in contrast with the need for a better understanding of water fluxes and the interactions between surface- and groundwater in order to facilitate sustainable water resources management in such environments, where both floods and droughts can result in severe crop loss. In this study, event runoff coefficient analysis and limited tracer data of four small, nested sub-catchments (0.4–25.3 km 2 ) in a data scarce, semi-arid region of Tanzania helped to characterize the distinct response of the study catchments and to gain insights into the dominant runoff processes. The estimated event runoff coefficients were very low and did not exceed 0.09. They were found to be significantly related to the 5-day antecedent precipitation totals as well as to base flow, indicating a close relation to changes in soil moisture and thus potential switches in runoff generation processes. The time scales of the "direct flow" reservoirs, used to compute the event runoff coefficients, were up to one order of magnitude reduced for extreme events, compared to "average" events, suggesting the activation of at least a third flow component, besides base- and direct flow, assumed to be infiltration overland flow. Analysis of multiple tracers highlighted the importance of pre-event water to total runoff, even during intense and high yield precipitation events. It further illustrated the distinct nature of the catchments, in particular with respect to the available water storage, which was suggested by different degrees of tracer damping in the individual streams. The use of multiple tracers subsequently allowed estimating uncertainties in hydrograph separations arising from the use of different tracers. The results highlight the presence of considerable uncertainties, emphasizing the need for multiple tracers in order to avoid misleading results. This study shows the value of hydrological data collection over one whole wet season using multi-tracers to improve the understanding of hydrological functioning and thus for water resources management in data scarce, semi-arid environments.

Description: Infiltration-soil moisture redistribution under natural conditions: experimental evidence as a guideline for realizing simulation models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6199-6225, 2011 Author(s): R. Morbidelli, C. Corradini, C. Saltalippi, A. Flammini, and E. Rossi The evolution in time, t , of the experimental soil moisture vertical profile under natural conditions is investigated in order to address the corresponding simulation modelling. The measurements were conducted in a plot with a bare silty loam soil. The soil water content, θ, was continuously monitored at different depths, z , using a Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) system. For each profile four buriable three-rod waveguides were inserted horizontally at different depths (5, 15, 25 and 35 cm). In addition, we used sensors of air temperature and relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, evaporation and rain as supports for the application of selected simulation models, as well as for the detection of elements leading to their improvement. The results indicate that, under natural conditions, very different trends of the θ( z , t ) function can be observed in the given fine-textured soil, where the formation of a sealing layer over the parent soil requires an adjustment of the simulation modelling commonly used for hydrological applications. In particular, because of the considerable variations in the shape of the moisture content vertical profile as a function of time, a generalization of the existing models should incorporate a representation of the variability in time of the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the uppermost soil. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the observed shape of θ( z ) can be appropriately reproduced by adopting this approach, however the observed rainfall rate and the occurrence of freeze-thaw cycles with high soil moisture contents have to be explicitly incorporated.

Description: Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1795-1805, 2011 Author(s): R. Moratiel, R. L. Snyder, J. M. Durán, and A. M. Tarquis The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows possible future situations 50 yr from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ET o ). The maximum temperature ( T max ), minimum temperature ( T min ), dew point ( T d ), wind speed ( U ) and net radiation ( R n ) trends during the 1980–2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman-Montheith equation to estimate ET o . Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO 2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, taking the concentration of CO 2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly) into consideration. The scenarios studied showed the changes in ET o as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables T max , T min , T d , U and R n with current and future CO 2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ET o showed increases between 118 mm (11 %) and 55 mm (5 %) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin's crops.

Description: Changes in land cover, rainfall and stream flow in Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment, Blue Nile basin – Ethiopia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1979-1989, 2011 Author(s): T. H. M. Rientjes, A. T. Haile, E. Kebede, C. M. M. Mannaerts, E. Habib, and T. S. Steenhuis In this study we evaluated changes in land cover and rainfall in the Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment in the Upper Blue Nile basin and how changes affected stream flow in terms of annual flow, high flows and low flows. Land cover change assessment was through classification analysis of remote sensing based land cover data while assessments on rainfall and stream flow data are by statistical analysis. Results of the supervised land cover classification analysis indicated that 50.9 % and 16.7 % of the catchment area was covered by forest in 1973 and 2001, respectively. This significant decrease in forest cover is mainly due to expansion of agricultural land. By use of a change detection procedure, three periods were identified for which changes in rainfall and stream flow were analyzed. Rainfall was analyzed at monthly base by use of the Mann-Kendall test statistic and results indicated a statistically significant, decreasing trend for most months of the year. However, for the wet season months of June, July and August rainfall has increased. In the period 1973–2005, the annual flow of the catchment decreased by 12.1 %. Low flow and high flow at daily base were analyzed by a low flow and a high flow index that is based on a 95 % and 5 % exceedance probability. Results of the low flow index indicated decreases of 18.1 % and 66.6 % for the periods 1982–2000 and 2001–2005 respectively. Results of high flows indicated an increase of 7.6 % and 46.6 % for the same periods. In this study it is concluded that over the period 1973–2005 stream flow has changed in the Gilgel Abbay catchment by changes in land cover and changes in rainfall.

Description: Possible interrelation between the lead time of precursory seismic electric signals (SES) and geodynamics in Aegean Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1599-1603, 2011 Author(s): E. Dologlou The seismicity of the last 15 years in the Aegean Sea revealed that earthquakes ( M w 〉 5) with epicentres falling within the Sporades basin and the confined area north of Samos island were preceded by electric seismic signals (SES) with a remarkably long lead time. A possible explanation of this behaviour by means of specific tectonics and geodynamics which characterise these two regions, such as a significant small crustal thickness and a high heat flow rate, has been attempted. New data seem to strengthen the above hypothesis.

Description: Modeling the impact of wintertime rain events on the thermal regime of permafrost The Cryosphere Discussions, 5, 1697-1736, 2011 Author(s): S. Westermann, J. Boike, M. Langer, T. V. Schuler, and B. Etzelmüller In this study, we present field measurements and numerical process modeling from Western Svalbard showing that the ground surface temperature below the snow is impacted by strong wintertime rain events. During such events, rain water percolates to the bottom of the snow pack, where it freezes and releases latent heat. In the winter season 2005/2006, on the order of 20 to 50 % of the wintertime precipitation fell as rain, thus confining the surface temperature to close to 0 °C for several weeks. The measured average ground surface temperature during the snow-covered period is −0.6 °C, despite of a snow surface temperature of on average −8.5 °C. For the considered period, the temperature threshold below which permafrost is sustainable on long timescales is exceeded. We present a simplified model of rain water infiltration in the snow coupled to a transient permafrost model. While small amounts of rain have only minor impact on the ground surface temperature, strong rain events have a long-lasting impact. We show that consecutively applying the conditions encountered in the winter season 2005/2006 results in the formation of an unfrozen zone in the soil after three to five years, depending on the prescribed soil properties. If water infiltration in the snow is disabled in the model, more time is required for the permafrost to reach a similar state of degradation.

Description: Hydropedological insights when considering catchment classification Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1909-1919, 2011 Author(s): J. Bouma, P. Droogers, M. P. W. Sonneveld, C. J. Ritsema, J. E. Hunink, W. W. Immerzeel, and S. Kauffman Soil classification systems are analysed to explore the potential of developing classification systems for catchments. Soil classifications are useful to create systematic order in the overwhelming quantity of different soils in the world and to extrapolate data available for a given soil type to soils elsewhere with identical classifications. This principle also applies to catchments. However, to be useful, soil classifications have to be based on permanent characteristics as formed by the soil forming factors over often very long periods of time. When defining permanent catchment characteristics, discharge data would therefore appear to be less suitable. But permanent soil characteristics do not necessarily match with characteristics and parameters needed for functional soil characterization focusing, for example, on catchment hydrology. Hydropedology has made contributions towards the required functional characterization of soils as is illustrated for three recent hydrological catchment studies. However, much still needs to be learned about the physical behaviour of anisotropic, heterogeneous soils with varying soil structures during the year and about spatial and temporal variability. The suggestion is made therefore to first focus on improving simulation of catchment hydrology, possibly incorporating hydropedological expertise, before embarking on a catchment classification effort which involves major input of time and involves the risk of distraction. In doing so, we suggest to also define other characteristics for catchment performance than the traditionally measured discharge rates. Such characteristics may well be derived from societal issues being studied, as is illustrated for the Green Water Credits program.

Description: Quantifying spatial and temporal discharge dynamics of an event in a first order stream, using distributed temperature sensing Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1945-1957, 2011 Author(s): M. C. Westhoff, T. A. Bogaard, and H. H. G. Savenije Understanding the spatial distribution of discharge can be important for water quality and quantity modeling. Non-steady flood waves can, particularly as a result of short high intensity summer rainstorms, influence small headwater streams significantly. The aim of this paper is to quantify the spatial and temporal dynamics of stream flow in a headwater stream during a summer rainstorm. These dynamics include gains and losses of stream water, the effect of bypasses that become active and hyporheic exchange fluxes that may vary over time as a function of discharge. We use an advection-dispersion model coupled with an energy balance model to simulate in-stream water temperature, which we compare with high resolution temperature observations obtained with Distributed Temperature Sensing. This model was used as a learning tool to stepwise unravel the complex puzzle of in-stream processes subject to varying discharge. Hypotheses were tested and rejected, which led to more insight in the spatial and temporal dynamics in discharge and hyporheic exchange processes. We showed that, for the studied stream infiltration losses increase during a small rain event, while gains of water remained constant over time. We conclude that, eventually, part of the stream water bypassed the main channel during peak discharge. It also seems that hyporheic exchange varies with varying discharge in the first 250 m of the stream; while further downstream it remains constant. Because we relied on solar radiation as the main energy input, we were only able to apply this method during a small summer storm and low flow conditions. However, when additional (artificial) energy is available, the presented method is also applicable in larger streams, during higher flow conditions or longer storms.

Description: Sand box experiments to evaluate the influence of subsurface temperature probe design on temperature based water flux calculation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6155-6197, 2011 Author(s): M. Munz, S. E. Oswald, and C. Schmidt Quantification of subsurface water fluxes based on the one dimensional solution to the heat transport equation depends on the accuracy of measured subsurface temperatures. The influence of temperature probe setup on the accuracy of vertical water flux calculation was systematically evaluated in this experimental study. Four temperature probe setups were installed into a sand box experiment to measure temporal highly resolved vertical temperature profiles under controlled water fluxes in the range of ±1.3 m d −1 . Pass band filtered time series provided amplitude and phase of the diurnal temperature signal varying with depth depending on water flux. Amplitude ratios of setups directly installed into the saturated sediment significantly varied with sand box hydraulic gradients. Amplitude ratios provided an accurate basis for the analytical calculation of water flow velocities, which matched measured flow velocities. Calculated flow velocities were sensitive to thermal properties of saturated sediment and to probe distance, but insensitive to thermal dispersivity equal to solute dispersivity. Amplitude ratios of temperature probe setups indirectly installed into piezometer pipes were influenced by thermal exchange processes within the pipes and significantly varied with water flux direction only. Temperature time lags of small probe distances of all setups were found to be insensitive to vertical water flux.

Description: Trend analysis of extreme precipitation in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia with a case study of Debre Markos Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1937-1944, 2011 Author(s): H. Shang, J. Yan, M. Gebremichael, and S. M. Ayalew Understanding extreme precipitation is very important for Ethiopia, which is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture but lacks structural and non-structural water regulating and storage mechanisms. There has been an increasing concern about whether there is an increasing trend in extreme precipitation as the climate changes. Existing analysis of this region has been descriptive, without taking advantage of the advances in extreme value modeling. After reviewing the statistical methodology on extremes, this paper presents an analysis based on the generalized extreme value modeling with daily time series of precipitation records at Debre Markos in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia. We found no strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis that there is no increasing trend in extreme precipitation at this location.

Description: A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2025-2038, 2011 Author(s): D. Anghileri, F. Pianosi, and R. Soncini-Sessa While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our approach are that: (i) the impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the water-users preferences; (ii) the management policies are obtained by optimal control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making; (iii) the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy). We show that the most conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower production and agriculture) are likely to be negatively impacted by climate change. We discuss the robustness of the estimated impacts to the climate natural variability and the approximations in modeling the physical system and the socio-economic system, and perform an uncertainty analysis of several sources of uncertainty. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural climate uncertainty is rather remarkable and that, among different modelling uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant.

Description: Daytime variations of foE connected to earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1807-1812, 2011 Author(s): E. V. Liperovskaya, V. V. Bogdanov, P.-F. Biagi, C.-V. Meister, and V. A. Liperovsky In the present work it is shown that, in accordance with the observations of the vertical sounding station "Tashkent", the critical foE-frequency of the daytime E-layer increases about one day before winter-earthquakes with magnitudes M 〉 5 and depths of the epicentre of h 〈 60 km, which appeared at distances of R 〈 2000 km from the station. The reliability of the result is larger than 99 %. The phenomenon is not observed for summer-earthquakes. It seems to be determined by the atmospheric wind system. Further, the variations of the foE-frequency are compared with possible simultaneous variations of the critical frequency foF2 of the F2-layer. First results show that only very large changes of the ionisation density in the E-layer influence the ionisation density in the F-region. Therefore, no synchronous growth of the foE- and foF2-frequencies 1–2 days before seismic shocks could be observed.

Description: Macroinvertebrate community responses to a dewatering disturbance gradient in a restored stream Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1771-1783, 2011 Author(s): J. D. Muehlbauer, M. W. Doyle, and E. S. Bernhardt Dewatering disturbances are common in aquatic systems and represent a relatively untapped field of disturbance ecology, yet studying dewatering events along gradients in non-dichotomous (i.e. wet/dry) terms is often difficult. Because many stream restorations can essentially be perceived as planned hydrologic manipulations, such systems can make ideal test-cases for understanding processes of hydrological disturbance. In this study we used an experimental drawdown in a 440 ha stream/wetland restoration site to assess aquatic macroinvertebrate community responses to dewatering and subsequent rewetting. The geomorphic nature of the site and the design of the restoration allowed dewatering to occur predictably along a gradient and decoupled the hydrologic response from any geomorphic (i.e. habitat heterogeneity) effects. In the absence of such heterogeneous habitat refugia, reach-scale wetted perimeter and depth conditions exerted a strong control on community structure. The community exhibited an incremental response to dewatering severity over the course of this disturbance, which was made manifest not as a change in community means but as an increase in community variability, or dispersion, at each site. The dewatering also affected inter-species abundance and distributional patterns, as dewatering and rewetting promoted alternate species groups with divergent habitat tolerances. Finally, our results indicate that rapid rewetting – analogous to a hurricane breaking a summer drought – may represent a recovery process rather than an additional disturbance and that such processes, even in newly restored systems, may be rapid.

Description: The use of LIDAR as a data source for digital elevation models – a study of the relationship between the accuracy of digital elevation models and topographical attributes in northern peatlands Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5497-5522, 2011 Author(s): A. Hasan, P. Pilesjö, and A. Persson It is important to study the factors affecting estimates of wetness since wetness is crucial in climate change studies. The availability of digital elevation models (DEMs) generated with high resolution data is increasing, and their use is expanding. LIDAR earth elevation data have been used to create several DEMs with different resolutions, using various interpolation parameters, in order to compare the models with collected surface data. The aim is to study the accuracy of DEMs in relation to topographical attributes such as slope and drainage area, which are normally used to estimate the wetness in terms of topographic wetness indices. Evaluation points were chosen from the high-resolution LIDAR dataset at a maximum distance of 10 mm from the cell center for each DEM resolution studied, 0.5, 1, 5, 10, 30 and 90 m. The interpolation method used was inverse distance weighting method with four search radii: 1, 2, 5 and 10 m. The DEM was evaluated using a quantile-quantile test and the normalized median absolute deviation. The accuracy of the estimated elevation for different slopes was tested using the DEM with 0.5 m resolution. Drainage areas were investigated at three resolutions, with coinciding evaluation points. The ability of the model to generate the drainage area at each resolution was obtained by pairwise comparison of three data subsets. The results show that the accuracy of the elevations obtained with the DEM model are the same for different resolutions, but vary with search radius. The accuracy of the values (NMAD of errors) varies from 29.7 mm to 88.9 mm, being higher for flatter areas. It was also found that the accuracy of the drainage area is highly dependent on DEM resolution. Coarse resolution yielded larger estimates of the drainage area but lower slope values. This may lead to overestimation of wetness values when using a coarse resolution DEM.

Description: Multivariate design via Copulas Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5523-5558, 2011 Author(s): G. Salvadori, C. De Michele, and F. Durante Calculating return periods and design quantiles in a multivariate framework is a difficult problem: essentially, this is due to the lack of a natural total order in multi-dimensional Euclidean spaces. This paper tries to make the issue clear. First, we outline a possible way to introduce a coherent notion of multivariate total order, and discuss its consequences on the calculation of multivariate return period: in particular, the latter is based on Copulas and the Kendall's measure, which provides a consistent notion of multivariate quantile. Secondly, we introduce several approaches for the identification of critical design events: these latter quantities are of utmost importance in practical applications, but their calculation is yet limited, due to the lack of a suitable theoretical setting where to embed the problem. Throughout the paper, a case study involving the behavior of a dam is used to illustrate the new concepts outlined in this work.

Description: Influence of initial heterogeneities and recharge limitations on the evolution of aperture distributions in carbonate aquifers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5631-5666, 2011 Author(s): B. Hubinger and S. Birk Karst aquifers evolve where the dissolution of soluble rocks causes the enlargement of discrete pathways along fractures or bedding planes, thus creating highly conductive solution conduits. To identify general interrelations between hydrogeological conditions and the properties of the evolving conduit systems the aperture-size frequency distributions resulting from generic models of conduit evolution are analysed. For this purpose, a process-based numerical model coupling flow and rock dissolution is employed. Initial protoconduits are represented by tubes with log-normally distributed aperture sizes with a mean of 0.5 mm. Apertures are spatially uncorrelated and widen up to the metre range due to dissolution by chemically aggressive waters. Several examples of conduit development are examined focussing on influences of the initial heterogeneity and the available amount of recharge. If the available recharge is sufficiently high the evolving conduits compete for flow and those with large apertures and high hydraulic gradients attract more and more water. As a consequence, the positive feedback between increasing flow and dissolution causes the breakthrough of a conduit pathway connecting the recharge and discharge sides of the modelling domain. Under these competitive flow conditions dynamically stable bimodal aperture distributions are found to evolve, i.e. a certain percentage of tubes continues to be enlarged while the remaining tubes stay small-sized. The percentage of strongly widened tubes is found to be independent of the breakthrough time and decreases with increasing heterogeneity of the initial apertures and decreasing amount of available water. If the competition for flow is suppressed because the availability of water is strongly limited breakthrough of a conduit pathway is inhibited and the conduit pathways widen very slowly. The resulting aperture distributions are found to be unimodal covering some orders of magnitudes in size. Under these suppressed flow conditions the entire range of apertures continues to be enlarged. Hence, the number of tubes reaching aperture sizes in the order of centimetres or decimetres continues to increase with time and in the long term may exceed the number of large-sized tubes evolving under competitive flow conditions. This suggests that conduit development under suppressed flow conditions may significantly enhance the permeability of the formation e.g. in deep-seated carbonate settings.

Description: Skewness as measure of the invariance of instantaneous renormalized drop diameter distributions – Part 1: Convective vs. stratiform precipitation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5605-5629, 2011 Author(s): M. Ignaccolo and C. De Michele We investigate the variability of the instantaneous distribution shape of the renormalized drop diameter making use of the third order central moment: the skewness . Disdrometer data, collected at Darwin Australia, are considered either as whole or as divided in convective and stratiform precipitation intervals. We show that in all cases the distribution of the skewness is strongly peaked around 0.64. This allows to identify a most common distribution of renormalized drop diameters and two main variations, one with larger and one with smaller skewness. The distributions' shapes are independent from the stratiform vs. convective classification.

Description: The sensitivity of land emissivity estimates from AMSR-E at C and X bands to surface properties Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5667-5699, 2011 Author(s): H. Norouzi, M. Temimi, W. B. Rossow, C. Pearl, M. Azarderakhsh, and R. Khanbilvardi Microwave observations at low frequencies exhibit more sensitivity to surface and subsurface properties with little interference from the atmosphere. The objective of this study is to develop a global land emissivity product using passive microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and to investigate its sensitivity to land surface properties. The developed product complements existing land emissivity products from SSM/I and AMSU by adding land emissivity estimates at two lower frequencies, 6.9 and 10.65 GHz (C- and X-band, respectively). Observations at these low frequencies penetrate deeper into the soil layer. Ancillary data used in the analysis, such as surface skin temperature and cloud mask, are obtained from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Atmospheric properties are obtained from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations to determine the small upwelling and downwelling atmospheric emissions as well as the atmospheric transmission. A sensitivity test confirms the small effect of the atmosphere but shows that skin temperature accuracy can significantly affect emissivity estimates. Retrieved emissivities at C- and X-bands and their polarization differences exhibit similar patterns of variation with changes in land cover type, soil moisture, and vegetation density as seen at SSM/I-like frequencies (Ka and Ku bands). The emissivity maps from AMSR-E at these higher frequencies agree reasonably well with the existing SSM/I-based product. The inherent but small discrepancy introduced by the difference between SSM/I and AMSR-E frequencies and incidence angles has been examined and found to be small. Large differences between emissivity estimates from ascending and descending overpasses were found at the lower frequencies due to the inconsistency between the thermal IR skin temperatures and passive microwave brightness temperatures which can come from below the surface. This issue must be addressed in future studies to improve the accuracy of the emissivity estimates at lower frequencies.

Description: Influence of soil parameters on the skewness coefficient of the annual maximum flood peaks Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5559-5604, 2011 Author(s): A. Gioia, V. Iacobellis, S. Manfreda, and M. Fiorentino Understanding the spatial variability of key parameters of flood probability distributions represents a strategy to provide insights on hydrologic similarity and building probabilistic models able to reduce the uncertainty in flood prediction in ungauged basins. In this work, we exploited the theoretically derived distribution of floods TCIF (Gioia et al., 2008), based on two different threshold mechanisms associated respectively to ordinary and extraordinary events. The model is based on the hypotheses that ordinary floods are generally due to rainfall events exceeding a threshold infiltration rate in a small source area, while the so-called outlier events, responsible of the high skewness of flood distributions, are triggered when severe rainfalls exceed a storage threshold over a large portion of the basin. Within this scheme, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to analyze the effects of climatic and geomorphologic parameters on the skewness coefficient. In particular, the analysis was conducted investigating the influence on flood distribution of physical factors such as rainfall intensity, soil infiltration capacity, and basin area, in order to provide insights in catchment classification and process conceptualization.

Description: The surface energy balance of a polygonal tundra site in northern Siberia – Part 2: Winter The Cryosphere, 5, 509-524, 2011 Author(s): M. Langer, S. Westermann, S. Muster, K. Piel, and J. Boike In this study, we present the winter time surface energy balance at a polygonal tundra site in northern Siberia based on independent measurements of the net radiation, the sensible heat flux and the ground heat flux from two winter seasons. The latent heat flux is inferred from measurements of the atmospheric turbulence characteristics and a model approach. The long-wave radiation is found to be the dominant factor in the surface energy balance. The radiative losses are balanced to about 60 % by the ground heat flux and almost 40 % by the sensible heat fluxes, whereas the contribution of the latent heat flux is small. The main controlling factors of the surface energy budget are the snow cover, the cloudiness and the soil temperature gradient. Large spatial differences in the surface energy balance are observed between tundra soils and a small pond. The ground heat flux released at a freezing pond is by a factor of two higher compared to the freezing soil, whereas large differences in net radiation between the pond and soil are only observed at the end of the winter period. Differences in the surface energy balance between the two winter seasons are found to be related to differences in snow depth and cloud cover which strongly affect the temperature evolution and the freeze-up at the investigated pond.

Description: Shallow circulation groundwater – the main type of water containing hazardous radon concentration Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1695-1703, 2011 Author(s): T. A. Przylibski The main factors affecting the value of 222 Rn activity concentration in groundwater are the emanation coefficient of reservoir rocks ( K em ), the content of parent 226 Ra in these rocks ( q ), changes in the volume and flow velocity as well as the mixing of various groundwater components in the circulation system. The highest values of 222 Rn activity concentration are recorded in groundwaters flowing towards an intake through strongly cracked reservoir rocks undergoing weathering processes. Because of these facts, waters with hazardous radon concentration levels, i.e. containing more than 100 Bq dm −3 222 Rn, could be characterised in the way that follows. They are classified as radon waters, high-radon waters and extreme-radon waters. They belong to shallow circulation systems (at less than a few dozen metres below ground level) and are contemporary infiltration waters, i.e. their underground flow time ranges from several fortnights to a few decades. Because of this, these are usually poorly mineralised waters (often below 0.2–0.5 g dm −3 ). Their resources are renewable, but also vulnerable to contamination. Waters of this type are usually drawn from private intakes, supplying water to one or at most a few households. Due to an increased risk of developing lung tumours, radon should be removed from such waters when still in the intake. To achieve this aim, appropriate legislation should be introduced in many countries.

Description: Precipitation change in Southern Italy linked to global scale oscillation indexes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1683-1694, 2011 Author(s): T. Caloiero, R. Coscarelli, E. Ferrari, and M. Mancini This study investigates precipitation variability in five regions of Southern Italy (Campania, Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily) using a homogeneous database of about 70 rain gauges with more than 50 years of observation. First, a statistical analysis was performed through the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test in order to determine rainfall the trend on both yearly and seasonal scales. Then, the relationship between the rainfall and some teleconnection pattern indexes was investigated using Spearman's test. The results show remarkable statistically significant negative trends for annual and winter aggregations in most part of the series. Moreover, a strong correlation has emerged between the teleconnection patterns and precipitation in Southern Italy, particularly in winter and on the Tyrrhenian side of the study area.

Description: The geomorphic structure of the runoff peak Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1853-1863, 2011 Author(s): R. Rigon, P. D'Odorico, and G. Bertoldi This paper develops a theoretical framework to investigate the core dependence of peak flows on the geomorphic properties of river basins. Based on the theory of transport by travel times, and simple hydrodynamic characterization of floods, this new framework invokes the linearity and invariance of the hydrologic response to provide analytical and semi-analytical expressions for peak flow, time to peak, and area contributing to the peak runoff. These results are obtained for the case of constant-intensity hyetograph using the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves to estimate extreme flow values as a function of the rainfall return period. Results show that, with constant-intensity hyetographs, the time-to-peak is greater than rainfall duration and usually shorter than the basin concentration time. Moreover, the critical storm duration is shown to be independent of rainfall return period as well as the area contributing to the flow peak. The same results are found when the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion are accounted for. Further, it is shown that, when the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion are negligible, the basin area contributing to the peak discharge does not depend on the channel velocity, but is a geomorphic propriety of the basin. As an example this framework is applied to three watersheds. In particular, the runoff peak, the critical rainfall durations and the time to peak are calculated for all links within a network to assess how they increase with basin area.

Description: Technical note: Towards a continuous classification of climate using bivariate colour mapping Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5733-5742, 2011 Author(s): A. J. Teuling Climate is often defined in terms of discrete classes. Here I use bivariate colour mapping to show that the global distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate classes can largely be reproduced by combining the simple means of two key states of the climate system (i.e., air temperature and relative humidity). This allows for a classification that is not only continuous in space, but can be applied at and transferred between timescales ranging from minutes to decades.

Description: Reconstruction of Atlantic historical winter coastal storms in the Spanish coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz, 1929–2005 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1715-1722, 2011 Author(s): P. Ribera, D. Gallego, C. Pena-Ortiz, L. Del Rio, T. A. Plomaritis, and J. Benavente This paper presents the reconstruction of a climatological series of winter coastal storms on the northern coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz. This series has been put together using information extracted from regional and local Spanish newspapers. It includes all the storms coming from the Atlantic sector that have been detected during the winter season, from October to March, between 1929 and 2005. In order to validate this historical storm series, it has been compared with storms series identified from quasi-observational data and using different wave heights as thresholds to decide what is to be considered as a coastal storm. Nearly 2.6 reports per year about coastal storms are published in the press which correspond to waves of 3.6 m high or more and to prevailing winds from a direction ranging between SSW and WNW. A long- term positive trend has been detected for the complete storm series. If only the instrumental period is analysed, no significant trend is detected. It is suggested that this difference might be associated with the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the occurrence of storms in this area.

Description: The neutral temperature in the ionospheric dynamo region and the ionospheric F region density during Wenchuan and Pingtung Doublet earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1759-1768, 2011 Author(s): Y. Y. Sun, K.-I. Oyama, J. Y. Liu, H. K. Jhuang, and C. Z. Cheng One of the possible candidates which modifies the ionosphere before large earthquake is electric field. We presume that the electric field associated with large earthquakes is generated in the ionosphere dynamo region (100–120 km). This paper tries to identify the evidence of the contribution of the neutral atmosphere in the dynamo region. The relationship between the critical frequency at the F2 peak (foF2) and the height profile of the neutral atmosphere temperature was studied for two large earthquakes: Wenchuan, 2008 and Pingtung Doublet, 2006. It is found that the wave amplitude of the vertical wavelength 20–30 km which is usually superposed on the height profile of the neutral atmosphere temperature enhances when the foF2 increases. The correlation between the wave amplitude and foF2 is found better along a longitudinal direction than along latitude direction.

Description: The relationship between the performance of soil conditions and damage following an earthquake: a case study in Istanbul, Turkey Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1745-1758, 2011 Author(s): G. Ç. İnce Istanbul city has experienced many strong earthquakes throughout its history and suffered extensive damage. The old Istanbul (Fatih and Eminonu districts), one of the most densely populated locations of Istanbul city, is a commercial centre and has many significant historical buildings. In this study, the data pertaining to the damage sustained by historical artifacts and structures from past earthquakes, are examined along with the soil amplification of the region, the liquefaction and slope stability risk in relation to the seismic microzonation maps which were prepared using geographic information system techniques. The relationship between soil behaviour and the damage resulting from previous earthquakes. The structural damage observed in the region was in accordance with the microzonation maps. Since the area does not have a high risk in terms of slope stability, this does not have much impact on the level of damage. However, it was found that soil amplification and partial liquefaction contributed to the damage to historical artifacts and structures.

Description: The importance of parameter resampling for soil moisture data assimilation into hydrologic models using the particle filter Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5849-5890, 2011 Author(s): D. A. Plaza, R. De Keyser, G. J. M. De Lannoy, L. Giustarini, P. Matgen, and V. R. N. Pauwels The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the Sequential Importance Resampling (SIR) particle filter are evaluated for their performance in soil moisture assimilation and the consequent effect on discharge. With respect to the resulting soil moisture time series, both filters perform similarly. However, both filters have a negative effect on the discharge due to inconsistency between the parameter values and the states after the assimilation. In order to overcome this inconsistency, parameter resampling is applied along with the SIR filter, to obtain consistent parameter values with the analyzed soil moisture state. Extreme parameter replication, which could lead to a particle collapse, is avoided by the perturbation of the parameters with white noise. Both the modelled soil moisture and discharge are improved if the complementary parameter resampling is applied. The SIR filter with parameter resampling offers an efficient way to deal with biased observations. The robustness of the methodology is evaluated for 3 model parameter sets and 3 assimilation frequencies. Overall, the results in this paper indicate that the particle filter is a promising tool for hydrologic modelling purposes, but that an additional parameter resampling may be necessary to consistently update all state variables and fluxes within the model.

Description: Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5811-5847, 2011 Author(s): D. Zoccatelli, M. Borga, A. Viglione, G. B. Chirico, and G. Blöschl This paper provides a general analytical framework for assessing the dependence existing between spatial rainfall organisation, basin morphology and runoff response. The analytical framework builds upon a set of spatial rainfall statistics (termed " spatial moments of catchment rainfall ") which describe the spatial rainfall organisation in terms of concentration and dispersion statistics as a function of the distance measured along the flow routing coordinate. The introduction of these statistics permits derivation of a simple relationship for the quantification of storm velocity at the catchment scale. The paper illustrates the development of the analytical framework and explains the conceptual meaning of the statistics by means of application to five extreme flash floods occurred in various European regions in the period 2002–2007. High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are employed to examine how effective are these statistics in describing the degree of spatial rainfall organisation which is important for runoff modelling. This is obtained by quantifying the effects of neglecting the spatial rainfall variability on flood modelling, with a focus on runoff timing. The size of the study catchments ranges between 36 to 982 km 2 . The analysis reported here shows that the spatial moments of catchment rainfall can be effectively employed to isolate and describe the features of rainfall spatial organization which have significant impact on runoff simulation. These statistics provide essential information on what space-time scales rainfall has to be monitored, given certain catchment and flood characteristics, and what are the effects of space-time aggregation on flood response modeling.

Description: Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1895-1907, 2011 Author(s): G. Ibarra-Berastegi, J. Saénz, A. Ezcurra, A. Elías, J. Diaz Argandoña, and I. Errasti In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961–2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961–1996) and a test period (1997–2001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Description: The influence of constrained fossil fuel emissions scenarios on climate and water resource projections Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1879-1893, 2011 Author(s): J. D. Ward, A. D. Werner, W. P. Nel, and S. Beecham Water resources planning requires long-term projections of the impact of climate change on freshwater resources. In addition to intrinsic uncertainty associated with the natural climate, projections of climate change are subject to the combined uncertainties associated with selection of emissions scenarios, GCM ensembles and downscaling techniques. In particular, unknown future greenhouse gas emissions contribute substantially to the overall uncertainty. We contend that a reduction in uncertainty is possible by refining emissions scenarios. We present a comprehensive review of the growing body of literature that challenges the assumptions underlying the high-growth emissions scenarios (widely used in climate change impact studies), and instead points to a peak and decline in fossil fuel production occurring in the 21st century. We find that the IPCC's new RCP 4.5 scenario (low-medium emissions), as well as the B1 and A1T (low emissions) marker scenarios from the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios are broadly consistent with the majority of recent fossil fuel production forecasts, whereas the medium to high emissions scenarios generally depend upon unrealistic assumptions of future fossil fuel production. We use a simple case study of projected climate change in 2070 for the Scott Creek catchment in South Australia to demonstrate that even with the current suite of climate models, by limiting projections to the B1 scenario, both the median change and the spread of model results are reduced relative to equivalent projections under an unrealistic high emissions scenario (A1FI).

Description: Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1769-1785, 2011 Author(s): B. Groppelli, A. Soncini, D. Bocchiola, and R. Rosso We investigate future (2045–2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (≈1800 km 2 ) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990–1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045–2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipitation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies.

Description: Evaluation of the transferability of hydrological model parameters for simulations under changed climatic conditions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5891-5915, 2011 Author(s): S. Bastola, C. Murphy, and J. Sweeney Conceptual hydrological models are widely used for climate change impact assessment. The implicit assumption in most such work is that the parameters estimated from observations remain valid for future climatic conditions. This paper evaluates a simple threshold based approach for testing this assumption, where a set of behavioural simulators are identified for different climatic conditions for the future simulation i.e. wet, average and dry conditions. These simulators were derived using three different data sets that are generated by sampling a block of one year of data without replacement from the observations such that they define the different climatic conditions. The simulators estimated from the wet climatic data set showed the tendency to underestimate flow when applied to dry data set and vice versa. However, the performances of the three sets of basin simulators on chronologically coherent data are identical to the simulators identified from a sufficiently long data series that contains both wet and dry climatic conditions. The results presented suggest that the issue of time invariance in the value of parameters has a minimal effect on the simulation if the change in precipitation is less than 10 % of the data used for calibration.

Description: Mass transfer effects in 2-D dual-permeability modeling of field preferential bromide leaching with drain effluent Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5917-5967, 2011 Author(s): H. H. Gerke, J. Dusek, and T. Vogel Subsurface drained experimental fields are frequently used for studying preferential flow (PF) in structured soils. Considering two-dimensional (2-D) transport towards the drain, however, the relevance of mass transfer coefficients, apparently reflecting small-scale soil structural properties, for the water and solute balances of the entire drained field is largely unknown. This paper reviews and analyzes effects of mass transfer reductions on Br − leaching for a subsurface drained experimental field using a numerical 2-D dual-permeability model (2D-DPERM). The sensitivity of the "diffusive" mass transfer component on bromide (Br − ) leaching patterns is discussed. Flow and transport is simulated in a 2-D vertical cross-section using parameters, boundary conditions (BC), and data of a Br − tracer irrigation experiment on a subsurface drained field (5000 m 2 area) at Bokhorst (Germany), where soils have developed from glacial till sediments. The 2D-DPERM simulation scenarios assume realistic irrigation and rainfall rates, and Br-application in the soil matrix (SM) domain. The mass transfer reduction controls preferential tracer movement and can be related to physical and chemical properties at the interface between flow path and soil matrix in structured soil. A reduced solute mass transfer rate coefficient allows a better match of the Br − mass flow observed in the tile drain discharge. The results suggest that coefficients of water and solute transfer between PF and SM domains have a clear impact on Br − effluent from the drain. Amount and composition of the drain effluent is analyzed as a highly complex interrelation between temporally and spatially variable mass transfer in the 2-D vertical flow domain that depends on varying "advective" and "diffusive" transfer components, the spatial distribution of residual tracer concentrations, and the lateral flow fields in both domains from plots of the whole subsurface drained field. The local-scale soil structural effects (e.g., such as macropore wall coatings), here conceptualized as changes in mass transfer coefficients, can have a clear effect on leaching at the plot and field-scales.

Description: Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5969-5997, 2011 Author(s): R. R. E. Vernimmen, A. Hooijer, Mamenun, and E. Aldrian The accuracy of satellite rainfall data from different sources, TRMM 3B42RT, CMORPH and PERSIANN, was investigated through comparison with reliable ground station rainfall data in Indonesia, with a focus on their ability to detect patterns of low rainfall that may lead to drought conditions. It was found that all sources underestimated rainfall in dry season months. The CMORPH and PERSIANN data differed most from ground station data and are also very different from the TRMM data. However, it proved possible to improve TRMM data to yield sufficiently accurate estimates, both for dry periods ( R 2 0.65–0.92) and annually ( R 2 0.84–0.96), applying a single parameterized bias correction equation that is constant in space and time. It is proposed that these bias corrected TRMM data be used in real-time drought monitoring, in Indonesia and probably in other countries where similar conditions exist. This will yield major advantages, in terms of accuracy, spatial coverage, timely availability and cost efficiency, over drought monitoring with only ground stations.

Description: A tool for assessing the quality of the Mediterranean cyclone forecast: a numerical index Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1787-1794, 2011 Author(s): M. A. Picornell, A. Jansà, and A. Genovés Cyclones affecting the Mediterranean region, sometimes related to severe weather events, are often not well represented enough in numerical model predictions. Assessing the quality of the forecast of these cyclonic structures would be a significant advance in better knowing the goodness of the weather forecast in this region, and particularly the quality of predictions of high impact phenomena. In order to estimate the cyclone forecast uncertainty in operational models, in this work we compare two cyclone databases for the period 2006–2007: one from the operational analyses of the T799 ECMWF deterministic model; and the other from the forecasts provided by the same model in three ranges, H+12, H+24, and H+48. The skill of the model to detect cyclones and its accuracy in describing their features are assessed. An index is presented as an indicator of the quality of the prediction, derived from the frequency distribution of errors in the prediction of four characteristics of the cyclone: position, central pressure value, geostrophic circulation, and domain. Some sub-indexes are derived to verify each of the variables separately in order to analyse the most frequent sources of error. Other sub-indexes are also defined to indicate possible biases in the numerical prediction model.

Description: Data-driven catchment classification: application to the pub problem Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1921-1935, 2011 Author(s): M. Di Prinzio, A. Castellarin, and E. Toth A promising approach to catchment classification makes use of unsupervised neural networks (Self Organising Maps, SOM's), which organise input data through non-linear techniques depending on the intrinsic similarity of the data themselves. Our study considers ∼300 Italian catchments scattered nationwide, for which several descriptors of the streamflow regime and geomorphoclimatic characteristics are available. We compare a reference classification, identified by using indices of the streamflow regime as input to SOM, with four alternative classifications, which were identified on the basis of catchment descriptors that can be derived for ungauged basins. One alternative classification adopts the available catchment descriptors as input to SOM, the remaining classifications are identified by applying SOM to sets of derived variables obtained by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) to the available catchment descriptors. The comparison is performed relative to a PUB problem, that is for predicting several streamflow indices in ungauged basins. We perform an extensive cross-validation to quantify nationwide the accuracy of predictions of mean annual runoff, mean annual flood, and flood quantiles associated with given exceedance probabilities. Results of the study indicate that performing PCA and, in particular, CCA on the available set of catchment descriptors before applying SOM significantly improves the effectiveness of SOM classifications by reducing the uncertainty of hydrological predictions in ungauged sites.

Description: Effects of antecedent soil moisture on runoff modeling in small semiarid watersheds of southeastern Arizona Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6227-6256, 2011 Author(s): Y. Zhang, H. Wei, and M. A. Nearing Antecedent soil moisture prior to a rain event influences the rainfall-runoff relationship. Very few studies have looked at the effects of antecedent soil moisture on runoff modeling sensitivities in arid and semi-arid areas. This study examines the influence of initial soil moisture on model runoff prediction capability in small semiarid watersheds using model sensitivity and by comparing the use of antecedent vs. average long term soil water content for defining the model initial conditions for the modified Green-Ampt Mein-Larson model within the Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM). Measured rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture data from four semiarid rangeland watersheds ranging in size from 0.34 to 4.53 ha on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in southeastern Arizona, USA, were used. Results showed that: (a) there were no significant correlations between measured runoff ratio and antecedent soil moisture in any of the four watersheds; (b) average sensitivities of simulated runoff amounts and peaks to antecedent soil moisture were 0.05 mm and 0.18 mm h −1 , respectively, with each 1 % change in antecedent soil moisture; (c) runoff amounts and peaks simulated with long term average soil moisture were statistically equivalent to those simulated with measured antecedent soil moisture. The relative lack of sensitivity of modeled runoff to antecedent soil moisture in this case is contrary to results reported in other studies, and is largely due to the fact that the surface soil is nearly always very dry in this environment.

Description: A full Stokes ice flow model for the vicinity of Dome Fuji, Antarctica, with induced anisotropy and fabric evolution The Cryosphere, 5, 495-508, 2011 Author(s): H. Seddik, R. Greve, T. Zwinger, and L. Placidi A three-dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled ice flow model with induced anisotropy has been applied to a ~200 × 200 km domain around the Dome Fuji drill site, Antarctica. The model ("Elmer/Ice") is based on the open-source multi-physics package Elmer ( http://www.csc.fi/elmer/ ) and solves the full Stokes equations. Flow-induced anisotropy in ice is accounted for by an implementation of the C ontinuum-mechanical, A nisotropic F low model, based on an anisotropic F low E nhancement factor ("CAFFE model"). Steady-state simulations for present-day climate conditions are conducted. The main findings are: (i) the flow regime at Dome Fuji is a complex superposition of vertical compression, horizontal extension and bed-parallel shear; (ii) for an assumed geothermal heat flux of 60 mW m −2 the basal temperature at Dome Fuji reaches the pressure melting point and the basal melting rate is ~0.35 mm a −1 ; (iii) in agreement with observational data, the fabric shows a strong single maximum at Dome Fuji, and the age of the ice is decreased compared to an isotropic scenario; (iv) as a consequence of spatially variable basal melting conditions, the basal age tends to be smaller where the ice is thicker and larger where the ice is thinner. The latter result is of great relevance for the consideration of a future drill site in the area.

Description: Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls through non-homogeneous Poissonian processes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1657-1668, 2011 Author(s): B. Sirangelo, E. Ferrari, and D. L. De Luca A stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterised by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. The data modelling has been performed with a partition of observed daily rainfall data into a calibration period for parameter estimation and a validation period for checking on occurrence process changes. The model has been applied to a set of rain gauges located in different geographical areas of Southern Italy. The results show a good fit for time-varying intensity of rainfall occurrence process by 2-harmonic Fourier law and no statistically significant evidence of changes in the validation period for different threshold values.

Description: Regional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges along the French coast Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1627-1639, 2011 Author(s): L. Bardet, C.-M. Duluc, V. Rebour, and J. L'Her A good knowledge of extreme storm surges is necessary to ensure protection against flood. In this paper we introduce a methodology to determine time series of skew surges in France as well as a statistical approach for estimating extreme storm surges. With the aim to cope with the outlier issue in surge series, a regional frequency analysis has been carried out for the surges along the Atlantic coast and the Channel coast. This methodology is not the current approach used to estimate extreme surges in France. First results showed that the extreme events identified as outliers in at-site analyses do not appear to be outliers any more in the regional empirical distribution. Indeed the regional distribution presents a curve to the top with these extreme events that a mixed exponential distribution seems to recreate. Thus, the regional approach appears to be more reliable for some sites than at-site analyses. A fast comparison at a given site showed surge estimates with the regional approach and a mixed exponential distribution are higher than surge estimates with an at-site fitting. In the case of Brest, the 1000-yr return surge is 167 cm in height with the regional approach instead of 126 cm with an at-site analysis.

Description: River flow time series using least squares support vector machines Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1835-1852, 2011 Author(s): R. Samsudin, P. Saad, and A. Shabri This paper proposes a novel hybrid forecasting model known as GLSSVM, which combines the group method of data handling (GMDH) and the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). The GMDH is used to determine the useful input variables which work as the time series forecasting for the LSSVM model. Monthly river flow data from two stations, the Selangor and Bernam rivers in Selangor state of Peninsular Malaysia were taken into consideration in the development of this hybrid model. The performance of this model was compared with the conventional artificial neural network (ANN) models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), GMDH and LSSVM models using the long term observations of monthly river flow discharge. The root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation ( R ) are used to evaluate the models' performances. In both cases, the new hybrid model has been found to provide more accurate flow forecasts compared to the other models. The results of the comparison indicate that the new hybrid model is a useful tool and a promising new method for river flow forecasting.

Description: Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1819-1833, 2011 Author(s): M. Renner and C. Bernhofer Recently, climatological studies report observational evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier timing of the annual cycle of surface temperature, earlier snow melt and earlier onset of the phenological spring season. Also hydrological studies report earlier timing and changes in monthly streamflows. From a water resources management perspective, there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins. Here, the timing of hydrological regimes from 1930–2009 was investigated in a network of 27 river gauges in Saxony/Germany through a timing measure derived by harmonic function approximation of annual periods of runoff ratio series. The timing measure proofed to be robust and equally applicable to both mainly pluvial river basins and snow melt dominated regimes. We found that the timing of runoff ratio is highly variable, but markedly coherent across the basins analysed. Differences in average timing are largely explained by basin elevation. Also the magnitude of low frequent changes in the seasonal timing of streamflow and the sensitivity to the changes in the timing of temperature increase with basin elevation. This sensitivity is in turn related to snow storage and release, whereby snow cover dynamics in late winter explain a large part of the low- and high-frequency variability. A trend analysis based on cumulative anomalies revealed a common structural break around the year 1988. While the timing of temperature shifted earlier by 4 days, accompanied by a temperature increase of 1 K, the timing of runoff ratio within higher basins shifted towards occurring earlier about 1 to 3 weeks. This accelerated and distinct change indicates, that impacts of climate change on the water cycle may be strongest in higher, snow melt dominated basins.

Description: Integrated versus isolated scenario for prediction dissolved oxygen at progression of water quality monitoring stations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6069-6112, 2011 Author(s): A. A. Najah, A. El-Shafie, O. A. Karim, and O. Jaafar This study examined the potential of Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN) in predicting dissolved oxygen (DO) at Johor River Basin. The river water quality parameters were monitored regularly each month at four different stations by the Department of Environment (DOE) over a period of ten years, i.e. from 1998 to 2007. The following five water quality parameters were selected for the proposed MLP-NN modelling, namely; temperature (Temp), water pH, electrical conductivity (COND), nitrate (NO 3 ) and ammonical nitrogen (NH 3 –NL). In this study, two scenarios were introduced; the first scenario (Scenario 1) was to establish the prediction model for DO at each station based on five input parameters, while the second scenario (Scenario 2) was to establish the prediction model for DO based on the five input parameters and DO predicted at previous station (upstream). The model needs to verify when output results and the observed values are close enough to satisfy the verification criteria. Therefore, in order to investigate the efficiency of the proposed model, the verification of MLP-NN based on collection of field data within duration 2009–2010 is presented. To evaluate the effect of input parameters on the model, the sensitivity analysis was adopted. It was found that the most effective inputs were oxygen-containing (NO 3 ) and oxygen demand (NH 3 –NL). On the other hand, Temp and pH were found to be the least effective parameters, whereas COND contributed the lowest to the proposed model. In addition, 17 neurons were selected as the best number of neurons in the hidden layer for the MLP-NN architecture. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, three statistical indexes were used, namely; Coefficient of Efficiency (CE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Coefficient of Correlation (CC). A relatively low correlation between the observed and predicted values in the testing data set was obtained in Scenario 1. In contrast, high coefficients of correlation were obtained between the observed and predicted values for the test sets of 0.98, 0.96 and 0.97 for all stations after adopting Scenario 2. It appeared that the results for Scenario 2 were more adequate than Scenario 1, with a significant improvement for all stations ranging from 4 % to 8 %.

Description: The causes of flow regime shifts in the semi-arid Hailiutu River, Northwest China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5999-6030, 2011 Author(s): Z. Yang, Y. X. Zhou, J. Wenninger, and S. Uhlenbrook Identifying the causes (climate vs. human activities) for hydrological variability is a major challenge in hydrology. This paper examines the flow regime shifts, changes in the climatic variables such as precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and crop area in the semi-arid Hailiutu catchment in the middle section of the Yellow River by performing several statistical analyses. The Pettitt test, cumulative sum charts (CUSUM), regime shift index (RSI) method, and harmonic analysis were carried out on annual, monthly, and daily discharges. Four major shifts in the flow regime have been detected in 1968, 1986, 1992 and 2001. Characteristics of the flow regime were analyzed in the five periods: 1957–1967, 1968–1985, 1986–1991, 1992–2000, and 2001–2007. From 1957 to 1967, the flow regime reflects quasi natural conditions with high variability and larger amplitude of 6 months periodic fluctuations. The river flow had been affected by the construction of two reservoirs in the period 1968–1985. In the period of 1986–1991, the river discharge decreased due to the combined influence of river diversions and increase of groundwater extractions for irrigation. In the fourth period of 1992–2000, the river discharge reached lowest flow values and variations corresponding to a large increase in crop area. The flow regime recovered, but not yet to natural status in the fifth period of 2001–2007. Climatic factors are not responsible for all these changes in the flow regime, but the changes are corresponding well to human activities.

Description: Integrating coarse-scale uncertain soil moisture data into a fine-scale hydrological modelling scenario Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6031-6067, 2011 Author(s): H. Vernieuwe, B. De Baets, J. Minet, V. R. N. Pauwels, S. Lambot, M. Vanclooster, and N. E. C. Verhoest In a hydrological modelling scenario, often the modeller is confronted with external data, such as remotely-sensed soil moisture observations, that become available to update the model output. However, the scale triplet (spacing, extent and support) of these data is often inconsistent with that of the model. Furthermore, the external data can be cursed with epistemic uncertainty. Hence, a method is needed that not only integrates the external data into the model, but that also takes into account the difference in scale and the uncertainty of the observations. In this paper, a synthetic hydrological modelling scenario is set up in which a high-resolution distributed hydrological model is run over an agricultural field. At regular time steps, coarse-scale field-averaged soil moisture data, described by means of possibility distributions (epistemic uncertainty), are retrieved by synthetic aperture radar and assimilated into the model. A method is presented that allows to integrate the coarse-scale possibility distribution of soil moisture content data with the fine-scale model-based soil moisture data. To this end, a scaling relationship between field-averaged soil moisture content data and its corresponding standard deviation is employed.

Description: Modelling the statistical dependence of rainfall event variables through copula functions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1959-1977, 2011 Author(s): M. Balistrocchi and B. Bacchi In many hydrological models, such as those derived by analytical probabilistic methods, the precipitation stochastic process is represented by means of individual storm random variables which are supposed to be independent of each other. However, several proposals were advanced to develop joint probability distributions able to account for the observed statistical dependence. The traditional technique of the multivariate statistics is nevertheless affected by several drawbacks, whose most evident issue is the unavoidable subordination of the dependence structure assessment to the marginal distribution fitting. Conversely, the copula approach can overcome this limitation, by dividing the problem in two distinct parts. Furthermore, goodness-of-fit tests were recently made available and a significant improvement in the function selection reliability has been achieved. Herein the dependence structure of the rainfall event volume, the wet weather duration and the interevent time is assessed and verified by test statistics with respect to three long time series recorded in different Italian climates. Paired analyses revealed a non negligible dependence between volume and duration, while the interevent period proved to be substantially independent of the other variables. A unique copula model seems to be suitable for representing this dependence structure, despite the sensitivity demonstrated by its parameter towards the threshold utilized in the procedure for extracting the independent events. The joint probability function was finally developed by adopting a Weibull model for the marginal distributions.

Description: Copula-based downscaling of spatial rainfall: a proof of concept Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1445-1457, 2011 Author(s): M. J. van den Berg, S. Vandenberghe, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest Fine-scale rainfall data is important for many hydrological applications. However, often the only data available is at a coarse scale. To bridge this gap in resolution, stochastic disaggregation methods can be used. Such methods generally assume that the distribution of the field is stationary, i.e. the distribution for the entire (fine-scale) field is the same as the distribution of a smaller region within the field. This assumption is generally incorrect and we provide a proof of concept of a method to estimate the distribution of a smaller region. In this method, a copula is used to construct a bivariate distribution describing the relation between the scales. This distribution is then used to estimate the distribution of the fine-scale rainfall within a single coarse-scale pixel, by conditioning on the coarse-scale rainfall depth.

Description: Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones – Hong Kong and the Netherlands Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4701-4719, 2011 Author(s): G. Lenderink, H. Y. Mok, T. C. Lee, and G. J. van Oldenborgh Hourly precipitation extremes in very long time series from the Hong Kong Observatory and the Netherlands are investigated. Using the 2 m dew point temperature from 4 h before the rainfall event as a measure of near surface absolute humidity, hourly precipitation extremes closely follow a 14 % per degree dependency – a scaling twice as large as following from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, for dew point temperatures above 23 °C no significant dependency on humidity was found. Strikingly, in spite of the large difference in climate, results are almost identical in Hong Kong and the Netherlands for the dew point temperature range where both observational sets have sufficient data. Trends in hourly precipitation extremes show substantial increases over the last century for both De Bilt (the Netherlands) and Hong Kong. For De Bilt, not only the long term trend, but also variations in hourly precipitation extremes on a inter-decadal timescale of 30 yr and longer, can be linked very well to the above scaling; there is a very close resemblance between variations in dew point temperature and precipitation intensity with an inferred dependency of hourly precipitation extremes of 10 to 14 % per degree. For Hong Kong there is no connection between variations in humidity and those in precipitation intensity in the wet season, May to September, consistent with the found zero-dependency of preciptation intensity on humidity for dew points above 23 °C. Yet, outside the wet season humidity changes do appear to explain the positive trend in hourly precipitation extremes, again following a dependency close to twice the Clausius-Clapeyron relation.

Description: Probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts on durum wheat in the Mediterranean region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1293-1302, 2011 Author(s): R. Ferrise, M. Moriondo, and M. Bindi Recently, the availability of multi-model ensemble prediction methods has permitted a shift from a scenario-based approach to a risk-based approach in assessing the effects of climate change. This provides more useful information to decision-makers who need probability estimates to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts. In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the risk of durum wheat yield shortfall over the Mediterranean Basin has been exploited. An artificial neural network, trained to emulate the outputs of a process-based crop growth model, has been adopted to create yield response surfaces which are then overlaid with probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation changes in order to estimate probabilistic projections of future yields. The risk is calculated as the relative frequency of projected yields below a selected threshold. In contrast to previous studies, which suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration over the next few decades would outweigh the detrimental effects of the early stages of climatic warming and drying, the results of this study are of greater concern.

Description: Debris-flow activity in abandoned channels of the Manival torrent reconstructed with LiDAR and tree-ring data Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1247-1257, 2011 Author(s): J. Lopez Saez, C. Corona, M. Stoffel, A. Gotteland, F. Berger, and F. Liébault Hydrogeomorphic processes are a major threat in many parts of the Alps, where they periodically damage infrastructure, disrupt transportation corridors or even cause loss of life. Nonetheless, past torrential activity and the analysis of areas affected during particular events remain often imprecise. It was therefore the purpose of this study to reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of past debris-flow activity in abandoned channels on the forested cone of the Manival torrent (Massif de la Chartreuse, French Prealps). A Light Detecting and Ranging (LiDAR) generated Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to identify five abandoned channels and related depositional forms (lobes, lateral levees) in the proximal alluvial fan of the torrent. A total of 156 Scots pine trees ( Pinus sylvestris L.) with clear signs of debris flow events was analyzed and growth disturbances (GD) assessed, such as callus tissue, the onset of compression wood or abrupt growth suppression. In total, 375 GD were identified in the tree-ring samples, pointing to 13 debris-flow events for the period 1931–2008. While debris flows appear to be very common at Manival, they have only rarely propagated outside the main channel over the past 80 years. Furthermore, analysis of the spatial distribution of disturbed trees contributed to the identification of four patterns of debris-flow routing and led to the determination of three preferential breakout locations. Finally, the results of this study demonstrate that the temporal distribution of debris flows did not exhibit significant variations since the beginning of the 20th century.

Description: Estimations of tidal characteristics and aquifer parameters via tide-induced head changes in coastal observation wells Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1473-1482, 2011 Author(s): Y.-J. Chen, G.-Y. Chen, H.-D. Yeh, and D.-S. Jeng The groundwater fluctuations due to tidal variations at an observation well in a coastal aquifer can be used to determine the tidal characteristics and aquifer parameters without conducting an aquifer test. In this study, a method, comprised of Jeng et al.'s solution (2005) and simulated annealing (SA) algorithm, is developed to determine the coastal aquifer parameters (hydraulic diffusivity, beach slope, and aquifer thickness) as well as the tidal characteristics (bichromatic-tide amplitudes, bichromatic-tide wave frequencies, and tidal phase lag) from the analysis of the tide-induced well-water-level (WWL) data. The synthetic WWL data generated from Jeng et al.'s solution (2005) with assumed parameter values and field data obtained from Barrenjoey beach, Australia, are analyzed. The estimated parameter values obtained from analyzing synthetic WWL data by the present method show good agreements with the previously assumed parameter values. The parameter estimation procedure may however fail in the case of a large shallow water parameter which in fact violates the constraint on the use of Jeng et al.'s solution (2005). In the analysis of field WWL data, the results indicate that the aquifer parameters estimated from the present method with single or multiple well data are significantly different from those given in Nielsen (1990). Inspecting the observed WWL data and the WWL data predicted from Jeng et al.'s solution (2005) reveals that the present method may provide better estimations for the aquifer parameters than those given in Nielsen (1990).

Description: Assessment of possible damaged areas due to landslide-induced waves at a constructed reservoir using empirical approaches: Kurtun (North Turkey) Dam reservoir area Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1341-1350, 2011 Author(s): A. Akgün Landslide-induced wave in lakes or offshore is a natural hazard of significant concern throughout the world. In Turkey, several dam reservoir areas suffer from this problem, motivating for the exploration of this phenomenon. In this study, the potential for landslide-induced wave generation and the possible adverse effects of such an event were investigated for the Kurtun Dam reservoir area. This area is prone to translational debris-type landslides, and such slides represent a threat with respect to wave generation. To investigate this problem, a potential landslide was initially inspected with respect to key geometrical and index parameters, such as the internal friction angle and unit weight of the landslide material. After obtaining these data, the potential of sub-aerial landslide-induced wave characteristics such as wave height, wave run-up on the opposite slope and wave velocity were calculated using existing empirical relationships. Based on the obtained wave properties, a potential damage assessment was performed for vulnerable areas in recognition of the fact that the Kurtun Dam and Kurtun district are threatened by potential wave occurrence. According to the findings obtained from the potential damage assessment, it was determined that the Kurtun district and the Kurtun portion of the Kurtun-Gumushane highway are located within the run-up impact area. However, the Kurtun Dam was determined to be relatively safe due to the distance between the landslide area and the dam.

Description: The sensitivity of warm period precipitation forecasts to various modifications of the Kain-Fritsch Convective Parameterization scheme Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1327-1339, 2011 Author(s): N. Mazarakis, V. Kotroni, K. Lagouvardos, A. A. Argiriou, and C. J. Anderson The sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecasts to various modifications of the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme (CPS) is examined for twenty selected cases characterized by intense convective activity and widespread precipitation over Greece, during the warm period of 2005–2007. The study is conducted using the MM5 model with a two nested domains strategy, with horizontal grid increments of 24 and 8 km, respectively. Five modifications to the KF CPS, each designed to test the sensitivity of the model to the convective scheme formulation, are discussed. The modifications include: (i) the maximization of the convective scheme precipitation efficiency, (ii) the change of the convective time step, (iii) the forcing of the convective scheme to produce more/less cloud material, (iv) changes to the trigger function and (v) the alteration of the vertical profile of updraft mass flux detrainment. The simulated precipitation from the 8-km grid is verified against raingauge measurements. Although skill scores vary widely among the cases and the precipitation thresholds, model results using the modifications of the convective scheme show improvements in 6-h precipitation totals compared to simulations generated using the unmodified convective scheme. In general, forcing the model to produce less cloud material improves the precipitation forecast for the moderate and high precipitation amounts, while the same modification and the change of the convective time step to 1 min has the same result for the high precipitation thresholds. The increase of convective time step to 15 min, the maximization of precipitation efficiency and the changes to the trigger function give similar results for medium and high precipitation. On the other hand, the forecast for the light precipitation is improved by forcing the model to produce more cloud material as well as by the alteration of the vertical profile of updraft mass flux detrainment.

Description: Future changes in European winter storm losses and extreme wind speeds inferred from GCM and RCM multi-model simulations Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1351-1370, 2011 Author(s): M. G. Donat, G. C. Leckebusch, S. Wild, and U. Ulbrich Extreme wind speeds and related storm loss potential in Europe have been investigated using multi-model simulations from global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate models. Potential future changes due to anthropogenic climate change have been analysed from these simulations following the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The large number of available simulations allows an estimation of the robustness of detected future changes. All the climate models reproduced the observed spatial patterns of wind speeds, although some models displayed systematic biases. A storm loss model was applied to the GCM and RCM simulated wind speeds, resulting in realistic mean loss amounts calculated from 20th century climate simulations, although the inter-annual variability of losses is generally underestimated. In future climate simulations, enhanced extreme wind speeds were found over northern parts of Central and Western Europe in most simulations and in the ensemble mean (up to 5%). As a consequence, the loss potential is also higher in these regions, particularly in Central Europe. Conversely, a decrease in extreme wind speeds was found in Southern Europe, as was an associated reduction in loss potential. There was considerable spread in the projected changes of individual ensemble members, with some indicating an opposite signature to the ensemble mean. Downscaling of the large-scale simulations with RCMs has been shown to be an important source of uncertainty. Even RCMs with identical boundary forcings can show a wide range of potential changes. The robustness of the projected changes was estimated using two different measures. First, the inter-model standard deviation was calculated; however, it is sensitive to outliers and thus displayed large uncertainty ranges. Second, a multi-model combinatorics approach considered all possible sub-ensembles from GCMs and RCMs, hence taking into account the arbitrariness of model selection for multi-model studies. Based on all available GCM and RCM simulations, for example, a 25% mean increase in risk of loss for Germany has been estimated for the end of the 21st century, with a 90% confidence range of +15 to +35%.

Description: Evidence of a previously unrecorded local tsunami, 13 April 2010, Cook Islands: implications for Pacific Island countries Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1371-1379, 2011 Author(s): J. Goff Tsunami hazard assessments for Pacific Islands Countries (PICs) tend to focus on subduction zone sources. It is generally recognised that while volcanic-related tsunamigenic sources exist, they are probably only of minor relevance to the overall hazardscape of the Pacific. This paper outlines the evidence for a previously unrecorded local tsunami that struck the uninhabited south coast of Mangaia, Cook Islands, on 13 April 2010. The tsunami had a maximum inundation of 100 m inland and a runup of 12 m a.s.l. This event was most probably caused by a small submarine slope failure, the most recent of an unknown number of previous inundations. Since most PICs have a volcanic origin, it is suggested that current perceptions about the local and regional significance of such events is inaccurate. A review of volcanic-related tsunamigenic sources throughout the Pacific reveals a wealth of data concerning submarine slope failures in particular and a more general background of active volcanism. These sources are as relevant to PICs close to or far away from subduction zones. As populations grow and the coastlines of many PICs and those on the edge of the Pacific Ocean become increasing occupied, the likelihood for loss of life from these events increases.

Description: Investigating changes in basal conditions of Variegated Glacier prior and during its 1982–1983 surge The Cryosphere Discussions, 5, 1461-1494, 2011 Author(s): M. Jay-Allemand, F. Gillet-Chaulet, O. Gagliardini, and M. Nodet The Variegated Glacier (Alaska) is known to surge periodically after a sufficient amount of cumulative mass balance is reached, but this observation is difficult to link with changes in the basal conditions. Here, using a 10-year dataset, consisting in surface topography and surface velocity observations along a flow line for 25 dates, we have reconstructed the evolution of the basal conditions prior and during the 1982–1983 surge. The model solves the full-Stokes problem along the central flow line using the finite element method. For the 25 dates of the dataset, the basal friction parameter distribution is inferred using the inverse method proposed by Arthern and Gudmundson (2010). This method is here slightly modified by incorporating a regularisation term in the cost function to avoid short wave length changes in the friction parameter. Our results indicate that dramatic changes in the basal conditions occurred between 1973 to 1983. Prior to the surge, periodical changes can be observed between winter and summer, with a regular increase of the sliding from 1973 to 1982. During the surge, the basal friction decreased dramatically and an area of very low friction moved from the upper part of the glacier to its terminus. Using a more complex friction law, these changes in basal sliding are then interpreted in terms of basal water pressure. It confirms that dramatic changes took place in the subglacial drainage system of Variegated Glacier, moving from a relatively efficient drainage system prior to the surge to an inefficient one during the surge. By reconstructing the water pressure evolution at the base of the glacier it is possible to infer realistic scenarios for the hydrological history leading to the occurrence of a surge.

Description: Forest cover influence on flood assessment in Italian catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4891-4926, 2011 Author(s): F. Preti, G. Forzieri, and G. B. Chirico The paper aims at evaluating to what extent forest cover could affect the flood peak frequency and magnitude in Italian catchments. The analysis is restricted to evaluating the component of the runoff coefficient which cannot be captured by the catchment lithology alone. A preliminary data mining is performed on data of 75 catchments distributed from South to Central Italy. Cluster and correlation structure analyses are conducted for distinguishing forest cover effects within sample sets of catchments characterized by hydro-morphological similarities. We propose a method for correcting the bias of the runoff coefficient estimated from the catchment lithology only, by accounting for the effect of forest cover. The bias correction becomes significant for small mountainous catchments, characterised by larger forest cover fraction and lower critical rainfall depth. Consistently with what suggested in previous studies, the bias correction decreases as the rainfall depth and return period increase.

Description: Technical Note: Development of an automated lysimeter for the calculation of peat soil actual evapotranspiration Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5009-5033, 2011 Author(s): S. Proulx-McInnis, A. St-Hilaire, A. N. Rousseau, S. Jutras, G. Carrer, and G. Levrel A limited number of publications in the literature deal with the measurement of actual evapotranspiration (AET) from a peat soil. AET is an important parameter in the description of water pathways of an ecosystem. In peatlands, where the water table is near the surface and the vegetation is composed of nonvascular plants without stomatal resistance, the AET measurement represents a challenge. This paper discusses the development of an automated lysimeter installed between 12 and 27 July 2010, at a 11-ha bog site, Pont-Rouge (42 km west of Quebec City, Canada). This system was made of an isolated block of peat, maintained at the same water level as the surrounding water table by a system of submersible pressure transmitters and pumps. The change in water level in millimetres in the isolated block of peat was used to calculate the water lost through evapotranspiration (ET) while accounting the precipitation. The rates of AET were calculated for each day of the study period. Temperature fluctuated between 17.2 and 23.3 °C and total rainfall was 43.76 mm. AET rates from 0.6 to 6.9 mm day −1 were recorded, with a ΣAET/ΣP ratio of 1.38. The estimated potential ET (PET) resulting from Thornthwaite's semi-empirical formula suggested values between 2.8 and 3.9 mm day −1 . The average AET/PET ratio was 1.13. According to the literature, the results obtained are plausible. This system, relatively inexpensive and simple to install, may eventually be used to calculate AET on peaty soils in the years to come.

Description: Active faults crossing trunk pipeline routes: some important steps to avoid disaster Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1433-1436, 2011 Author(s): V. M. Besstrashnov and A. L. Strom Assessment of seismic strong motion hazard produced by earthquakes originating within causative fault zones allows rather low accuracy of localisation of these structures that can be provided by indirect evidence of fault activity. In contrast, the relevant accuracy of localisation and characterisation of active faults, capable of surface rupturing, can be achieved solely by the use of direct evidence of fault activity. This differentiation requires strict definition of what can be classified as "active fault" and the normalisation of methods used for identification and localisation of active faults crossing oil and natural gas trunk pipelines.

Description: Regional scale analysis of landform configuration with base-level (isobase) maps Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1493-1504, 2011 Author(s): C. H. Grohmann, C. Riccomini, and M. A. C. Chamani Base-level maps (or "isobase maps", as originally defined by Filosofov, 1960), express a relationship between valley order and topography. The base-level map can be seen as a "simplified" version of the original topographic surface, from which the "noise" of the low-order stream erosion was removed. This method is able to identify areas with possible tectonic influence even within lithologically uniform domains. Base-level maps have been recently applied in semi-detail scale (e.g., 1:50 000 or larger) morphotectonic analysis. In this paper, we present an evaluation of the method's applicability in regional-scale analysis (e.g., 1:250 000 or smaller). A test area was selected in northern Brazil, at the lower course of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers. The drainage network extracted from SRTM30_PLUS DEMs with spatial resolution of approximately 900 m was visually compared with available topographic maps and considered to be compatible with a 1:1,000 000 scale. Regarding the interpretation of regional-scale morphostructures, the map constructed with 2nd and 3rd-order valleys was considered to present the best results. Some of the interpreted base-level anomalies correspond to important shear zones and geological contacts present in the 1:5 000 000 Geological Map of South America. Others have no correspondence with mapped Precambrian structures and are considered to represent younger, probably neotectonic, features. A strong E-W orientation of the base-level lines over the inflexion of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers, suggest a major drainage capture. A N-S topographic swath profile over the Tocantins and Araguaia rivers reveals a topographic pattern which, allied with seismic data showing a roughly N-S direction of extension in the area, lead us to interpret this lineament as an E-W, southward-dipping normal fault. There is also a good visual correspondence between the base-level lineaments and geophysical anomalies. A NW-SE lineament in the southeast of the study area partially corresponds to the northern border of the Mosquito lava field, of Jurassic age, and a NW-SE lineament traced in the northeastern sector of the study area can be interpreted as the Picos-Santa Inês lineament, identifiable in geophysical maps but with little expression in hypsometric or topographic maps.

Description: Regional-scale analysis of lake outburst hazards in the southwestern Pamir, Tajikistan, based on remote sensing and GIS Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1447-1462, 2011 Author(s): M. Mergili and J. F. Schneider This paper presents an analysis of the hazards emanating from the sudden drainage of alpine lakes in South-Western Tajik Pamir. In the last 40 yr, several new lakes have formed in the front of retreating glacier tongues, and existing lakes have grown. Other lakes are dammed by landslide deposits or older moraines. In 2002, sudden drainage of a glacial lake in the area triggered a catastrophic debris flow. Building on existing approaches, a rating scheme was devised allowing quick, regional-scale identification of potentially hazardous lakes and possible impact areas. This approach relies on GIS, remote sensing and empirical modelling, largely based on medium-resolution international datasets. Out of the 428 lakes mapped in the area, 6 were rated very hazardous and 34 hazardous. This classification was used for the selection of lakes requiring in-depth investigation. Selected cases are presented and discussed in order to understand the potentials and limitations of the approach used. Such an understanding is essential for the appropriate application of the methodology for risk mitigation purposes.

Description: Evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates over Ethiopian river basins Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1505-1514, 2011 Author(s): T. G. Romilly and M. Gebremichael High resolution satellite-based rainfall estimates (SREs) have enormous potential for use in hydrological applications, particularly in the developing world as an alternative to conventional rain gauges which are typically sparse. In this study, three SREs have been evaluated against collocated rain gauge measurements in Ethiopia across six river basins that represent different rainfall regimes and topography. The comparison is made using five-year (2003–2007) averages, and results are stratified by river basin, elevation and season. The SREs considered are: the Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Neural Networks (PERSIANN) and the real-time version of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT. Overall, the microwave-based products TMPA 3B42RT and CMORPH outperform the infrared-based product PERSIANN: PERSIANN tends to underestimate rainfall by 43 %, while CMORPH tends to underestimate by 11 % and TMPA 3B42RT tends to overestimate by 5 %. The bias in the satellite rainfall estimates depends on the rainfall regime, and, in some regimes, the elevation. In the northwest region, which is characterized mainly by highland topography, a humid climate and a strong Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) effect, elevation has a strong influence on the accuracy of the SREs: TMPA 3B42RT and CMORPH tend to overestimate at low elevations but give reasonably accurate results at high elevations, whereas PERSIANN gives reasonably accurate values at low elevations but underestimates at high elevations. In the southeast region, which is characterized mainly by lowland topography, a semi-arid climate and southerly winds, elevation does not have a significant influence on the accuracy of the SREs, and all the SREs underestimate rainfall across almost all elevations.

Description: Increasing parameter certainty and data utility through multi-objective calibration of a spatially distributed temperature and solute model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1547-1561, 2011 Author(s): C. Bandaragoda and B. T. Neilson To support the goal of distributed hydrologic and instream model predictions based on physical processes, we explore multi-dimensional parameterization determined by a broad set of observations. We present a systematic approach to using various data types at spatially distributed locations to decrease parameter bounds sampled within calibration algorithms that ultimately provide information regarding the extent of individual processes represented within the model structure. Through the use of a simulation matrix, parameter sets are first locally optimized by fitting the respective data at one or two locations and then the best results are selected to resolve which parameter sets perform best at all locations, or globally. This approach is illustrated using the Two-Zone Temperature and Solute (TZTS) model for a case study in the Virgin River, Utah, USA, where temperature and solute tracer data were collected at multiple locations and zones within the river that represent the fate and transport of both heat and solute through the study reach. The result was a narrowed parameter space and increased parameter certainty which, based on our results, would not have been as successful if only single objective algorithms were used. We also found that the global optimum is best defined by multiple spatially distributed local optima, which supports the hypothesis that there is a discrete and narrowly bounded parameter range that represents the processes controlling the dominant hydrologic responses. Further, we illustrate that the optimization process itself can be used to determine which observed responses and locations are most useful for estimating the parameters that result in a global fit to guide future data collection efforts.

Description: Technical Note: Demonstrating a 24/7 solution for monitoring water quality loads in rivers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5035-5050, 2011 Author(s): P. Jordan and R. Cassidy Quantifying nutrient and sediment loads in catchments is difficult owing to diffuse controls related to storm hydrology. Coarse sampling and interpolation methods are prone to very high uncertainties due to under-representation of high discharge, short duration events. Additionally, important low-flow processes such as diurnal signals linked to point source impacts are missed. Here we demonstrate a solution based on a time-integrated approach to sampling with a standard 24 bottle autosampler configured to take a sample every 7 h over a week. This is evaluated with a number of other sampling strategies using a two-year dataset of sub-hourly discharge and phosphorus concentration data. The 24/7 solution is shown to be the least uncertain in estimating load (inter-quartile range is 96 % to 110 % of actual load in year 1 and 97 % to 104 % in year 2) due to the increased frequency raising the probability of sampling storm events and point source signals. The 24/7 solution would appear to be most parsimonious in terms of technology requirements, the ability to be widely deployed and to represent important nutrient transfer processes in complex catchments.

Description: Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1529-1544, 2011 Author(s): B. Vincendon, V. Ducrocq, O. Nuissier, and B. Vié Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods. Extending the forecasting lead times further than the watershed response times, implies the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to drive hydrological models. However, the nature of the precipitating events and the temporal and spatial scales of the watershed response make them difficult to forecast, even using a high-resolution convection-permitting NWP deterministic forecasting. This study proposes a new method to sample the uncertainties of high-resolution NWP precipitation forecasts in order to quantify the predictability of the streamflow forecasts. We have developed a perturbation method based on convection-permitting NWP-model error statistics. It produces short-term precipitation ensemble forecasts from single-value meteorological forecasts. These rainfall ensemble forecasts are then fed into a hydrological model dedicated to flash-flood forecasting to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The verification on two flash-flood events shows that this forecasting ensemble performs better than the deterministic forecast. The performance of the precipitation perturbation method has also been found to be broadly as good as that obtained using a state-of-the-art research convection-permitting NWP ensemble, while requiring less computing time.

Description: Geomorphological and geochemical characterization of the 11 August 2008 mud volcano eruption at S. Barbara village (Sicily, Italy) and its possible relationship with seismic activity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1545-1557, 2011 Author(s): P. Madonia, F. Grassa, M. Cangemi, and C. Musumeci On 11 August 2008 a paroxysmal eruption occurred at Santa Barbara mud volcano (MV), located close to Caltanissetta, one of the most densely populated cities of Sicily (Italy). An associated minor event took place on August 2009. Both the events caused severe damage to civil infrastructures located within a range of about 2 km from the eruptive vent. Geomorphological, geochemical, and seismological investigations were carried out for framing the events in the appropriate geodynamic context. Geomorphological surveys recognized, in the immediate surrounding of the main emission point, two different families of processes and landforms: (i) ground deformations and (ii) changes in morphology and number of the fluid emitting vents. These processes were associated to a wider network of fractures, seemingly generated by the shock wave produced by the gas blast that occurred at the main paroxysm. Geochemical characterization allowed an estimation of the source of the fluids, or at least their last standing, at about 3 km depth. Finally, the close time relationships observed between anomalous increments of seismic activity and the two main paroxysmal events accounted for a possible common trigger for both the phenomena, even with different timing due to the very different initial conditions and characteristics of the two processes, i.e. seismogenesis and gas overloading.

Description: The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1577-1600, 2011 Author(s): M. M. Mekonnen and A. Y. Hoekstra This study quantifies the green, blue and grey water footprint of global crop production in a spatially-explicit way for the period 1996–2005. The assessment improves upon earlier research by taking a high-resolution approach, estimating the water footprint of 126 crops at a 5 by 5 arc minute grid. We have used a grid-based dynamic water balance model to calculate crop water use over time, with a time step of one day. The model takes into account the daily soil water balance and climatic conditions for each grid cell. In addition, the water pollution associated with the use of nitrogen fertilizer in crop production is estimated for each grid cell. The crop evapotranspiration of additional 20 minor crops is calculated with the CROPWAT model. In addition, we have calculated the water footprint of more than two hundred derived crop products, including various flours, beverages, fibres and biofuels. We have used the water footprint assessment framework as in the guideline of the Water Footprint Network. Considering the water footprints of primary crops, we see that the global average water footprint per ton of crop increases from sugar crops (roughly 200 m 3 ton −1 ), vegetables (300 m 3 ton −1 ), roots and tubers (400 m 3 ton −1 ), fruits (1000 m 3 ton −1 ), cereals (1600 m 3 ton −1 ), oil crops (2400 m 3 ton −1 ) to pulses (4000 m 3 ton −1 ). The water footprint varies, however, across different crops per crop category and per production region as well. Besides, if one considers the water footprint per kcal, the picture changes as well. When considered per ton of product, commodities with relatively large water footprints are: coffee, tea, cocoa, tobacco, spices, nuts, rubber and fibres. The analysis of water footprints of different biofuels shows that bio-ethanol has a lower water footprint (in m 3 GJ −1 ) than biodiesel, which supports earlier analyses. The crop used matters significantly as well: the global average water footprint of bio-ethanol based on sugar beet amounts to 51 m 3 GJ −1 , while this is 121 m 3 GJ −1 for maize. The global water footprint related to crop production in the period 1996–2005 was 7404 billion cubic meters per year (78 % green, 12 % blue, 10 % grey). A large total water footprint was calculated for wheat (1087 Gm 3 yr −1 ), rice (992 Gm 3 yr −1 ) and maize (770 Gm 3 yr −1 ). Wheat and rice have the largest blue water footprints, together accounting for 45 % of the global blue water footprint. At country level, the total water footprint was largest for India (1047 Gm 3 yr −1 ), China (967 Gm 3 yr −1 ) and the USA (826 Gm 3 yr −1 ). A relatively large total blue water footprint as a result of crop production is observed in the Indus river basin (117 Gm 3 yr −1 ) and the Ganges river basin (108 Gm 3 yr −1 ). The two basins together account for 25 % of the blue water footprint related to global crop production. Globally, rain-fed agriculture has a water footprint of 5173 Gm 3 yr −1 (91 % green, 9 % grey); irrigated agriculture has a water footprint of 2230 Gm 3 yr −1 (48 % green, 40 % blue, 12 % grey).

Description: Scale-dependent measurement and analysis of ground surface temperature variability in alpine terrain The Cryosphere, 5, 431-443, 2011 Author(s): S. Gubler, J. Fiddes, M. Keller, and S. Gruber Measurements of environmental variables are often used to validate and calibrate physically-based models. Depending on their application, the models are used at different scales, ranging from few meters to tens of kilometers. Environmental variables can vary strongly within the grid cells of these models. Validating a model with a single measurement is therefore delicate and susceptible to induce bias in further model applications. To address the question of uncertainty associated with scale in permafrost models, we present data of 390 spatially-distributed ground surface temperature measurements recorded in terrain of high topographic variability in the Swiss Alps. We illustrate a way to program, deploy and refind a large number of measurement devices efficiently, and present a strategy to reduce data loss reported in earlier studies. Data after the first year of deployment is presented. The measurements represent the variability of ground surface temperatures at two different scales ranging from few meters to some kilometers. On the coarser scale, the dependence of mean annual ground surface temperature on elevation, slope, aspect and ground cover type is modelled with a multiple linear regression model. Sampled mean annual ground surface temperatures vary from −4 °C to 5 °C within an area of approximately 16 km 2 subject to elevational differences of approximately 1000 m. The measurements also indicate that mean annual ground surface temperatures vary up to 6 °C (i.e., from −2 °C to 4 °C) even within an elevational band of 300 m. Furthermore, fine-scale variations can be high (up to 2.5 °C) at distances of less than 14 m in homogeneous terrain. The effect of this high variability of an environmental variable on model validation and applications in alpine regions is discussed.

Description: Mechanisms of vegetation uprooting by flow in alluvial non-cohesive sediment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1615-1627, 2011 Author(s): K. Edmaier, P. Burlando, and P. Perona The establishment of riparian pioneer vegetation is of crucial importance within river restoration projects. After germination or vegetative reproduction on river bars juvenile plants are often exposed to mortality by uprooting caused by floods. At later stages of root development vegetation uprooting by flow is seen to occur as a consequence of a marked erosion gradually exposing the root system and accordingly reducing the mechanical anchoring. How time scales of flow-induced uprooting do depend on vegetation stages growing in alluvial non-cohesive sediment is currently an open question that we conceptually address in this work. After reviewing vegetation root issues in relation to morphodynamic processes, we then propose two modelling mechanisms (Type I and Type II), respectively concerning the uprooting time scales of early germinated and of mature vegetation. Type I is a purely flow-induced drag mechanism, which causes alone a nearly instantaneous uprooting when exceeding root resistance. Type II arises as a combination of substantial sediment erosion exposing the root system and resulting in a decreased anchoring resistance, eventually degenerating into a Type I mechanism. We support our conceptual models with some preliminary experimental data and discuss the importance of better understanding such mechanisms in order to formulate sounding mathematical models that are suitable to plan and to manage river restoration projects.

Description: Ionospheric variations before some large earthquakes over Sumatra Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 597-611, 2011 Author(s): A. M. Hasbi, M. A. Mohd Ali, and N. Misran The paper investigates the ionospheric variations before some large earthquakes that occurred during 2004–2007 in Sumatra using GPS and CHAMP data. The TEC shows the occurrence of positive and negative anomalies detected within a few hours to 6 days before the earthquakes. These anomalies mostly occur during the daytime hours between 4 and 17 LT. The TEC anomalies are mostly consistent with the CHAMP satellite electron density data. The electron density analysis over the 28 March 2005 earthquake epicenter shows that an equatorial anomaly modification took place a few days before the event. The modification took shape in the form of crest amplification during the daytime. The comparison between the TEC and electron density measurements during very quiet geomagnetic conditions is shown to be a useful indicator of a forthcoming earthquake.

Description: Critical analysis of the electrostatic turbulence enhancements observed by DEMETER over the Sichuan region during the earthquake preparation Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 561-570, 2011 Author(s): T. Onishi, J.-J. Berthelier, and M. Kamogawa In this paper, we report initial results from a detailed statistical study of the plasma waves observed by the DEMETER satellite over the Sichuan region during a period of 20 days encompassing the large earthquake of magnitude M =7.9 that occurred on 12 May 2008. The main objective of this paper is to present a statistical method to process and analyze plasma wave data and assist in detecting possible earthquake precursors among larger irregular disturbances arising from the natural variability of the ionized environment of the Earth. This method, presently used for dayside observations, involves two stages. First, VLF wave spectra are processed to recognize the various types of plasma waves usually observed at mid and low latitudes and derive a reduced number of parameters that fully characterize these emissions and may be conveniently used for a detailed statistical study. In a second stage, we perform a statistical analysis of the results by taking into account two "reference zones" displaced respectively 30 ° eastward and westward from the "epicentre zone". Plasma and wave disturbances possibly induced by earthquakes in preparation are likely to maximize close to the "epicentre zone", while natural disturbances associated, in particular, with the varying magnetic activity are rather uniform over a wider longitude sector, thus enabling the use of observations over the reference zones as a base line. The initial results of this study show a deviation of the power spectrum of electrostatic turbulence in the epicentre zone about 6 days prior to the earthquake but no significant anomalous variations can be observed on other characteristics of plasma waves. From the analysis of the data over the two reference~zones and using recently produced sector magnetic activity indices, we conclude that the enhancement of electrostatic turbulence is associated with magnetospheric processes rather than with pre-seismic activity.

Description: Bayesian inverse modelling of in situ soil water dynamics: using prior information about the soil hydraulic properties Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 2019-2063, 2011 Author(s): B. Scharnagl, J. A. Vrugt, H. Vereecken, and M. Herbst In situ observations of soil water state variables under natural boundary conditions are often used to estimate field-scale soil hydraulic properties. However, many contributions to the soil hydrological literature have demonstrated that the information content of such data is insufficient to reliably estimate all the soil hydraulic parameters. In this case study, we tested whether prior information about the soil hydraulic properties could help improve the identifiability of the van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters. Three different prior distributions with increasing complexity were formulated using the ROSETTA pedotransfer function (PTF) with input data that constitutes basic soil information and is readily available in most vadose zone studies. The inverse problem was posed in a formal Bayesian framework and solved using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. Synthetic and real-world soil water content data were used to illustrate our approach. The results of this study corroborate and explicate findings previously reported in the literature. Indeed, soil water content data alone contained insufficient information to reasonably constrain all VGM parameters. The identifiability of these soil hydraulic parameters was substantially improved when an informative prior distribution was used with detailed knowledge of the correlation structure among the respective VGM parameters. A biased prior did not distort the results, which inspires confidence in the robustness and effectiveness of the presented method. The Bayesian framework presented in this study can be applied to a wide range of vadose zone studies and provides a blueprint for the use of prior information in inverse modelling of soil hydraulic properties at various spatial scales.

Description: Evolution of extreme Total Water Levels along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 613-625, 2011 Author(s): D. F. Rasilla Álvarez and J. C. García Codron This paper assesses the evolution of storminess along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula through the calculation of extreme (1%) Total Water Levels (eTWL) on both observed (tide gauge and buoy data) and hindcasted (SIMAR-44) data. Those events were first identified and then characterized in terms of oceanographic parameters and atmospheric circulation features. Additionally, an analysis of the long-term trends in both types of data was performed. Most of the events correspond to a rough wave climate and moderate storm surges, linked to extratropical disturbances following a northern track. While local atmospheric conditions seem to be evolving towards lesser storminess, their impact has been balanced by the favorable exposure of the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula to the increasing frequency and strength of distant disturbances crossing the North Atlantic. This evolution is also correctly reproduced by the simulated long-term evolution of the forcing component (meteorological sea level residuals and wave run up) of the Total Water Level values calculated from the SIMAR 44 database, since sea level residuals have been experiencing a reduction while waves are arriving with longer periods. Finally, the addition of the rate of relative sea level trend to the temporal evolution of the atmospheric forcing component of the Total Water Level values is enough to simulate more frequent and persistent eTWL.

Description: Classification of thermal waters based on their inorganic fingerprint and hydrogeothermal modelling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4559-4581, 2011 Author(s): I. Delgado-Outeiriño, P. Araujo-Nespereira, J. A. Cid-Fernández, J. C. Mejuto, E. Martínez-Carballo, and J. Simal-Gándara Hydrothermal features in Galicia have been used since ancient times for therapeutic purposes. A characterization of these thermal waters was carried out in order to understand their behaviour based on inorganic pattern and water-rock interaction mechanisms. In this way 15 thermal water samples were collected in the same hydrographical system. The results of the hydrogeochemistry analysis showed one main water family of bicarbonate type sodium waters, typical in the post-orogenic basins of Galicia. Principal component analysis (PCA) and partial lest squared (PLS) clustered the selected thermal waters in two groups, regarding to their chemical composition. This classification agreed with the results obtained by the use of geothermometers and the hydrogeochemical modelling. The first included thermal samples that could be in contact with surface waters and therefore, their residence time in the reservoir and their water-rock interaction would be less important than for the thermal waters of the second group.

Description: The response of Iberian rivers to the North Atlantic Oscillation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4459-4493, 2011 Author(s): J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, J. I. López-Moreno, J. C. González-Hidalgo, and E. Morán-Tejeda In this study we analyzed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the streamflow in 187 sub-basins of the Iberian Peninsula. Monthly and one-month lagged correlations were conducted to assess the spatio-temporal extent of the NAO influence on Iberian river discharges. Analysis of the persistence of the winter NAO throughout the year was also undertaken, together with analysis of streamflow anomalies during positive and negative NAO phases. Moving-window correlation analyses were conducted to assess potential changes in the temporal evolution of the NAO influence on Iberian streamflows. The results show that the NAO has a large impact on surface water resources throughout the Iberian Peninsula during winter, and in the Atlantic watershed during autumn. We showed that water resources management and snowmelt are causing the persistent dependence of streamflows on the previous winter NAO. We found that strongly positive streamflow anomalies occurred during winter, especially in the Atlantic watershed, and provide evidence of non-stationarity and spatial variability in the NAO influence on Iberian water resources.

Description: Catchment classification: empirical analysis of hydrologic similarity based on catchment function in the eastern USA Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4495-4534, 2011 Author(s): K. Sawicz, T. Wagener, M. Sivapalan, P. A. Troch, and G. Carrillo Hydrologic similarity between catchments, derived from their similarity in how they respond to precipitation input, is the basis for classification, for transferability, for generalization and also for understanding the potential impacts of environmental change. An important question in this context is, in how far can widely available hydrologic information (precipitation-temperature-streamflow) be used to create a first order grouping of hydrologically similar catchments? We utilize a heterogeneous dataset of 280 catchments located in the Eastern US to understand hydrologic similarity in a 6-dimensional signature space across a region with strong environmental gradients. Signatures are defined as hydrologic response characteristics that provide some insight into the hydrologic function of catchments. A Bayesian clustering scheme is used to separate the catchments into 9 classes, which are subsequently analyzed with respect to their hydrologic, as well as climatic and landscape attributes. Based on the empirical results we hypothesize the following: (1) Streamflow elasticity with respect to precipitation is modified by the soil characteristics of a catchment. (2) Spatial proximity is a good first indicator of hydrologic similarity because of the strong control climate exerts on catchment function, and because it varies slowly in space.

Description: Improving confidence in deep drainage estimates, for arid and semi-arid areas using multiple linear regression with percent clay content and rainfall Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4535-4557, 2011 Author(s): D. L. Wohling, F. W. Leaney, and R. S. Crosbie Deep drainage estimates are required for effective management of water resources. However, field measurements are time consuming and costly so simple empirical relationships are often used. Relationships developed between clay content of the surface soil and deep drainage have been used extensively in Australia to provide regional estimates of drainage but these relationships have been poorly justified and did not include rainfall in the relationships. Here we present a rigorous appraisal of clay content of soils and rainfall as predictors of drainage using an extensive database of field observations from across Australia. This study found that annual average rainfall and the clay content of the top 2 m of the soil are statistically significant predictors of drainage. Relationships have been defined for annual, perennial and tree type vegetation as a line of best fit along with 95 % confidence intervals. This allows the uncertainty in these drainage estimates to be assessed for the first time.

Description: Melting trends over the Greenland ice sheet (1958–2009) from spaceborne microwave data and regional climate models The Cryosphere, 5, 359-375, 2011 Author(s): X. Fettweis, M. Tedesco, M. van den Broeke, and J. Ettema To study near-surface melt changes over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) since 1979, melt extent estimates from two regional climate models were compared with those obtained from spaceborne microwave brightness temperatures using two different remote sensing algorithms. The results from the two models were consistent with those obtained with the remote sensing algorithms at both daily and yearly time scales, encouraging the use of the models for analyzing melting trends before the satellite era (1958–1979), when forcing data is available. Differences between satellite-derived and model-simulated results still occur and are used here to identify (i) biases in the snow models (notably in the albedo parametrization, in the thickness of a snow layer, in the maximum liquid water content within the snowpack and in the snowfall impacting the bare ice appearance in summer) and (ii) limitations in the use of passive microwave data for snowmelt detection at the edge of the ice sheet due to mixed pixel effect (e.g., tundra or rock nearby the ice sheet). The results from models and spaceborne microwave sensors confirm a significant (p-value = 0.01) increase in GrIS surface melting since 1979. The melt extent recorded over the last years (1998, 2003, 2005 and 2007) is unprecedented in the last 50 yr with the cumulated melt area in the 2000's being, on the average, twice that of the 1980's.

Description: Warming of waters in an East Greenland fjord prior to glacier retreat: mechanisms and connection to large-scale atmospheric conditions The Cryosphere Discussions, 5, 1335-1364, 2011 Author(s): P. Christoffersen, R. I. Mugford, K. J. Heywood, I. Joughin, J. A. Dowdeswell, J. P. M. Syvitski, A. Luckman, and T. J. Benham Hydrographic data acquired in Kangerlugssuaq Fjord and adjacent seas in 1993 and 2004 are used together with ocean reanalysis to elucidate water mass change and ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions in East Greenland. The hydrographic data show substantial warming of fjord waters between 1993 and 2004 and warm subsurface conditions coincide with the rapid retreat of Kangerlugssuaq Glacier in 2004–2005. The ocean reanalysis shows that the warm properties of fjord waters in 2004 are related to a major peak in oceanic shoreward heat flux into a cross-shelf trough on the outer continental shelf. The heat flux into this trough varies according to seasonal exchanges with the atmosphere as well as from deep seasonal intrusions of subtropical waters. Both mechanisms contribute to high (low) shoreward heat flux when winds from the northeast are weak (strong). The combined effect of surface heating and inflow of subtropical waters is seen in the hydrographic data, which were collected after periods when along-shore coastal winds from the north were strong (1993) and weak (2004). We show that coastal winds vary according to the pressure gradient defined by a semi-permanent atmospheric pressure system over Greenland and a persistent atmospheric low situated near Iceland. The magnitude of this pressure gradient is controlled by longitudinal variability in the position of the Icelandic Low.

Description: Recent wind driven high sea ice export in the Fram Strait contributes to Arctic sea ice decline The Cryosphere Discussions, 5, 1311-1334, 2011 Author(s): L. H. Smedsrud, A. Sirevaag, K. Kloster, A. Sorteberg, and S. Sandven Arctic sea ice area decrease has been visible for two decades, and continues at a steady rate. Apart from melting, the southward drift through Fram Strait is the main loss. We present high resolution sea ice drift across 79° N from 2004 to 2010. The ice drift is based on radar satellite data and correspond well with variability in local geostrophic wind. The underlying current contributes with a constant southward speed close to 5 cm s −1 , and drives about 33 % of the ice export. We use geostrophic winds derived from reanalysis data to calculate the Fram Strait ice area export back to 1957, finding that the sea ice area export recently is about 25 % larger than during the 1960's. The increase in ice export occurred mostly during winter and is directly connected to higher southward ice drift velocities, due to stronger geostrophic winds. The increase in ice drift is large enough to counteract a decrease in ice concentration of the exported sea ice. Using storm tracking we link changes in geostrophic winds to more intense Nordic Sea low pressure systems. Annual sea ice export likely has a significant influence on the summer sea ice variability and we find low values in the 60's, the late 80's and 90's, and particularly high values during 2005–2008. The study highlight the possible role of variability in ice export as an explanatory factor for understanding the dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice the last decades.

Description: Estimation of surface soil moisture and roughness from multi-angular ASAR imagery in the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1415-1426, 2011 Author(s): S. G. Wang, X. Li, X. J. Han, and R. Jin Radar remote sensing has demonstrated its applicability to the retrieval of basin-scale soil moisture. The mechanism of radar backscattering from soils is complicated and strongly influenced by surface roughness. Additionally, retrieval of soil moisture using AIEM (advanced integrated equation model)-like models is a classic example of underdetermined problem due to a lack of credible known soil roughness distributions at a regional scale. Characterization of this roughness is therefore crucial for an accurate derivation of soil moisture based on backscattering models. This study aims to simultaneously obtain surface roughness parameters (standard deviation of surface height σ and correlation length cl) along with soil moisture from multi-angular ASAR images by using a two-step retrieval scheme based on the AIEM. The method firstly used a semi-empirical relationship that relates the roughness slope, Zs ( Zs = σ 2 /cl) and the difference in backscattering coefficient (Δσ) from two ASAR images acquired with different incidence angles. Meanwhile, by using an experimental statistical relationship between σ and cl, both these parameters can be estimated. Then, the deduced roughness parameters were used for the retrieval of soil moisture in association with the AIEM. An evaluation of the proposed method was performed in an experimental area in the middle stream of the Heihe River Basin, where the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER) was taken place. It is demonstrated that the proposed method is feasible to achieve reliable estimation of soil water content. The key challenge is the presence of vegetation cover, which significantly impacts the estimates of surface roughness and soil moisture.

Description: Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1427-1443, 2011 Author(s): A. F. Hamlet Climate change impacts in Pacific Northwest Region of North America (PNW) are projected to include increasing temperatures and changes in the seasonality of precipitation (increasing precipitation in winter, decreasing precipitation in summer). Changes in precipitation are also spatially varying, with the northwestern parts of the region generally experiencing greater increases in cool season precipitation than the southeastern parts. These changes in climate are projected to cause loss of snowpack and associated streamflow timing shifts which will increase cool season (October–March) flows and decrease warm season (April–September) flows and water availability. Hydrologic extremes such as the 100 yr flood and extreme low flows are also expected to change, although these impacts are not spatially homogeneous and vary with mid-winter temperatures and other factors. These changes have important implications for natural ecosystems affected by water, and for human systems. The PNW is endowed with extensive water resources infrastructure and well-established and well-funded management agencies responsible for ensuring that water resources objectives (such as water supply, water quality, flood control, hydropower production, environmental services, etc.) are met. Likewise, access to observed hydrological, meteorological, and climatic data and forecasts is in general exceptionally good in the United States and Canada, and is often supported by federally funded programs that ensure that these resources are freely available to water resources practitioners, policy makers, and the general public. Access to these extensive resources support the argument that at a technical level the PNW has high capacity to deal with the potential impacts of natural climate variability on water resources. To the extent that climate change will manifest itself as moderate changes in variability or extremes, we argue that existing water resources infrastructure and institutional arrangements provide a reasonably solid foundation for coping with climate change impacts, and that the mandates of existing water resources policy and water resources management institutions are at least consistent with the fundamental objectives of climate change adaptation. A deeper inquiry into the underlying nature of PNW water resources systems, however, reveals significant and persistent obstacles to climate change adaptation, which will need to be overcome if effective use of the region's extensive water resources management capacity can be brought to bear on this problem. Primary obstacles include assumptions of stationarity as the fundamental basis of water resources system design, entrenched use of historical records as the sole basis for planning, problems related to the relatively short time scale of planning, lack of familiarity with climate science and models, downscaling procedures, and hydrologic models, limited access to climate change scenarios and hydrologic products for specific water systems, and rigid water allocation and water resources operating rules that effectively block adaptive response. Institutional barriers include systematic loss of technical capacity in many water resources agencies following the dam building era, jurisdictional fragmentation affecting response to drought, disconnections between water policy and practice, and entrenched bureaucratic resistance to change in many water management agencies. These factors, combined with a federal agenda to block climate change policy in the US during the Bush administration have (with some exceptions) contributed to widespread institutional "gridlock" in the PNW over the last decade or so despite a growing awareness of climate change as a significant threat to water management. In the last several years, however, significant progress has been made in surmounting some of these obstacles, and the region's water resources agencies at all levels of governance are making progress in addressing the fundamental challenges inherent in adapting to climate change.

Description: Technical note on measuring run-off dynamics from pavements using a new device: the weighable tipping bucket Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1379-1386, 2011 Author(s): T. Nehls, Y. Nam Rim, and G. Wessolek Due to climate change, cities need to adapt to changing rainfall and rainwater run-off dynamics. In order to develop an corresponding process based run-off model for pavements, we had to improve the measurement technique to detect run-off dynamics in an appropriate high resolution. Traditional tipping buckets (TB) have a comparable low volume resolution, capable to quantify the highest intensities in a range of expected flows. This results in varying temporal resolutions for varying flow intensities, especially in low resolutions for small flow events. Therefore, their applicability for run-off measurements and other hydrological process studies is limited, especially when the dynamics of both small and big flow events shall be measured. We improved a TB by coupling it to a balance and called it weighable tipping bucket (WTB). This paper introduces the device set up and the according data processing concept. The improved volume and temporal resolution of the WTB are demonstrated. A systematic uncertainty of TB measurements compared to WTB measurements is calculated. The impact of that increased resolution on our understanding of run-off dynamics from paved urban soils are discussed, exemplary for the run-off and the surface storage of a paved urban soil. The study was conducted on a permeably paved lysimeter situated in Berlin, Germany. Referring to the paved surface, the TB has a resolution of 0.1 mm, while the WTB has a resolution of 0.001 mm. The temporal resolution of the WTB is 3 s, the TB detects individual tippings with 0.4 s between them. Therefore, the data processing concept combines both the benefits of the balance to measure small intensities with that of the TB to measure high flow intensities. During a five months period (July to November 2009) 154 rain events were detected. Accordingly, the TB and WTB detected 47 and 121 run-off events. The total run-off was 79.6 mm measured by the WTB which was 11 % higher than detected by the TB. 95 % of that difference can be appointed to water, which evaporated from the TB. To derive a surface storage estimation, we analyzed the WTB and TB data for rain events without run-off. According to WTB data, the surface storage of the permeable pavement is 1.7 mm, while using TB data leads to an overestimation of 47 % due to low volume resolution of the TB. Combining traditional TB with modern, fast, high resolution digital balances offers the opportunity to upgrade existing TB systems in order to improve their volume detection limit and their temporal resolution, which is of great advantage for the synchronization of water balance component measurements and the investigation of hydrological processes. Furthermore, we are able to quantify the uncertainty of flow measurements gained with traditional tipping buckets.

Description: Estimating surface fluxes over middle and upper streams of the Heihe River Basin with ASTER imagery Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1403-1413, 2011 Author(s): W. Ma, Y. Ma, Z. Hu, Z. Su, J. Wang, and H. Ishikawa Land surface heat fluxes are essential measures of the strengths of land-atmosphere interactions involving energy, heat and water. Correct parameterization of these fluxes in climate models is critical. Despite their importance, state-of-the-art observation techniques cannot provide representative areal averages of these fluxes comparable to the model grid. Alternative methods of estimation are thus required. These alternative approaches use (satellite) observables of the land surface conditions. In this study, the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) algorithm was evaluated in a cold and arid environment, using land surface parameters derived from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data. Field observations and estimates from SEBS were compared in terms of net radiation flux ( R n ), soil heat flux ( G 0 ), sensible heat flux ( H ) and latent heat flux (λ E ) over a heterogeneous land surface. As a case study, this methodology was applied to the experimental area of the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER) project, located on the mid-to-upstream sections of the Heihe River in northwest China. ASTER data acquired between 3 May and 4 June 2008, under clear-sky conditions were used to determine the surface fluxes. Ground-based measurements of land surface heat fluxes were compared with values derived from the ASTER data. The results show that the derived surface variables and the land surface heat fluxes furnished by SEBS in different months over the study area are in good agreement with the observed land surface status under the limited cases (some cases looks poor results). So SEBS can be used to estimate turbulent heat fluxes with acceptable accuracy in areas where there is partial vegetation cover in exceptive conditions. It is very important to perform calculations using ground-based observational data for parameterization in SEBS in the future. Nevertheless, the remote-sensing results can provide improved explanations of land surface fluxes over varying land coverage at greater spatial scales.

Description: An objective approach for feature extraction: distribution analysis and statistical descriptors for scale choice and channel network identification Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1387-1402, 2011 Author(s): G. Sofia, P. Tarolli, F. Cazorzi, and G. Dalla Fontana A statistical approach to LiDAR derived topographic attributes for the automatic extraction of channel network and for the choice of the scale to apply for parameter evaluation is presented in this paper. The basis of this approach is to use distribution analysis and statistical descriptors to identify channels where terrain geometry denotes significant convergences. Two case study areas with different morphology and degree of organization are used with their 1 m LiDAR Digital Terrain Models (DTMs). Topographic attribute maps (curvature and openness) for various window sizes are derived from the DTMs in order to detect surface convergences. A statistical analysis on value distributions considering each window size is carried out for the choice of the optimum kernel. We propose a three-step method to extract the network based (a) on the normalization and overlapping of openness and minimum curvature to highlight the more likely surface convergences, (b) a weighting of the upslope area according to these normalized maps to identify drainage flow paths and flow accumulation consistent with terrain geometry, (c) the standard score normalization of the weighted upslope area and the use of standard score values as non subjective threshold for channel network identification. As a final step for optimal definition and representation of the whole network, a noise-filtering and connection procedure is applied. The advantage of the proposed methodology, and the efficiency and accurate localization of extracted features are demonstrated using LiDAR data of two different areas and comparing both extractions with field surveyed networks.