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  • Articles  (52,569)
  • Springer  (39,044)
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  • 2015-2019
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  • Articles  (52,569)
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  • 2020-2022  (5)
  • 2015-2019
  • 2005-2009
  • 1985-1989  (52,564)
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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Comparative analysis of three recursive real-time river flow forecasting models: deterministic, stochastic, and coupled deterministic-stochastic (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 17-33 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: River flow forecasting ; discrete linear cascade model ; ARMAX ; coupled models ; Kalman filtering ; Danube
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The objective of the paper is to compare three recursive linear state space models used to forecast river flow. The three models are as follows: (i) Purely deterministic discrete linear cascade model (DLCM); (ii) Purely stochastic autoregressive moving average (ARMAX) time series model; and (iii) Coupled deterministic (DLCM) — stochastic (ARMA) model. Description of DLCM is given shortly. The state space formulation of the ARMAX model enables the recursive estimation of random walk parameters and the forecast of flows by linear Kalman filtering. The correlated error sequence of DLCM is described by an ARMA model. The DLCM and ARMA models are put together in a coupled deterministic-stochastic model. The recursive conditional forecasting of the augmented state vector is performed by the linear Kalman-filter. The conditional output forecast is given by linear projection of thea priori state vector. Numerical investigations on River Danube data lead to the conclusion that the coupled deterministic-stochastic model is the most efficient forecasting model of all the three recursive techniques compared.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544191
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Estimation of autocorrelation in a binary time series (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 61-72 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Binary data ; censored observations ; autocorrelations ; acid rain
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The properties of the well known estimator of the transition probabilities in a binary time series are investigated. A formula for the variance is obtained, which generally involves a double integral. However, in the case when the binary series is obtained by hard clipping of an AR(1) process, a good and fairly simple approximation is derived. In the MA(1) or MA(2) case exact formulae for the variance is given. In the appendix an excellent approximation to the fourth order cumulant of a clipped AR(1) process is derived, which may be of interest in other applications as well.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544195
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The historically adjusted range and the historically rescaled adjusted range (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 175-188 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Reservoir storage ; range ; adjusted range
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract It was remarked by Hurst in 1951 that the adjusted range gives the size of the smallest reservoir capable of providing a constant discharge equal to the mean inflow. Since that time this range and its rescaled modification, the Hurst range, have been widely discussed, not however primarily with a view to applying them to reservoir design problems, but rather on account of their possible relevance to the simulation of geophysical time series. Acknowledging the well-known conceptual weaknesses of adjusted ranges and the theoretical difficulties that inhibit their direct utilisation in the design and operation of real reservoirs, the authors argue that the interest displayed on ranges during the past few decades justifies the effort of eliminating one in particular of these weakness, namely their non-implementability as operating policies, a consequence of the fact that they can only be retrospectively evaluated. The paper proposes modifications in which the unknowable mean and standard deviation of future samples are replaced by the known mean and sample standard deviation of historical data, leading to the historically adjusted range and the historically rescaled and adjusted range. The latter is produced as an implementable approximation to Hurst's (1951) solution to the optimal reservoir problem. The expected values of the new ranges are evaluated and numerically tabulated.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01550840
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A geostatistical approach for areal rainfall statistics assessment (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 245-261 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Geostatistics ; areal rainfall distribution ; areal reduction factor ; Gumbel distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Areal rainfall statistics are more relevant in flood hydrology and water resources management than point rainfall statistics when it comes to help designing dams or hydraulic structures. This paper presents a geostatistically based method to derive the areal statistics from point statistics. Assuming that the distribution models of point rainfall and areal belong to the same class of models and that the rainfall process is stationary, it is shown how the parameters of the areal distribution model can directly be computed from the parameters of the point distribution models in case of a non stationary process, an approximation is derived that yielded good results when applied to a mountainous region in Southern France. The method also allows the computation of the areal reduction factors in a very general form.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544039
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Modeling long term lake variations by physically based stochastic dynamic models (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 303-315 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Physically based stochastic models ; stochastic dynamic models ; statistical predictability ; internannual variability ; ARMA models ; water level variations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Several physically based stochastic dynamic models (SDM) are described including year-to-year variations of water volume in terminal and non-terminal lakes, streamflow of lake-fed rivers, and salinity of an inland sea (the Sea of Azov). All of these models are based upon the SDM of water volume of terminal lakes developed by Kritzky and Menkel in 1946 in co-operation with Kolomogorov. Explicit formulae are derived for second order statistical moments of the output processes, including variance, correlation function, spectra, etc., under the assumption that the forcing functions from stationary random sequences. The least-squares prediction problem is solved for both stationary and non-stationary cases. Some of the processes are shown to possess high statistical predictability. Actual predictions are compared with independent observations. Problems for further study are stated.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544043
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Predictors of the peak width for networks with exponential links (1989)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 1-16 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Width function ; instantaneous unit hydrograph ; peak ; regression ; birth-death process
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract We investigate optimal predictors of the peak (S) and distance to peak (T) of the width function of drainage networks under the assumption that the networks are topologically random with independent and exponentially distributed link lengths. Analytical results are derived using the fact that, under these assumptions, the width function is a homogeneous Markov birth-death process. In particular, exact expressions are derived for the asymptotic conditional expectations ofS andT given network magnitudeN and given mainstream lengthH. In addition, a simulation study is performed to examine various predictors ofS andT, includingN, H, and basin morphometric properties; non-asymptotic conditional expectations and variances are estimated. The best single predictor ofS isN, ofT isH, and of the scaled peak (S divided by the area under the width function) isH. Finally, expressions tested on a set of drainage basins from the state of Wyoming perform reasonably well in predictingS andT despite probable violations of the original assumptions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01543424
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Technical comments (1989)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 68-69 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01543428
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Single station and regional analysis of daily rainfall extremes (1989)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 281-292 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Generalised Pareto distribution ; Peaks over threshold ; Probability weighted moments ; Regionalisation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A peaks over threshold (POT) method of analysing daily rainfall values is developed using a Poisson process of occurrences and a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) for the exceedances. The parameters of the GPD are estimated by the method of probability weighted moments (PWM) and a method of combining the individual estimates to define a regional curve is proposed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01543461
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    On the method of maximum likelihood estimation for the log-Pearson type 3 distribution (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 155-160 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01543458
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The generalized method of moments as applied to the generalized gamma distribution (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 161-174 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Floods ; estimation ; quantiles ; generalized gamma ; generalized moments ; standard error
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The generalized gamma (GG) distribution has a density function that can take on many possible forms commonly encountered in hydrologic applications. This fact has led many authors to study the properties of the distribution and to propose various estimation techniques (method of moments, mixed moments, maximum likelihood etc.). We discuss some of the most important properties of this flexible distribution and present a flexible method of parameter estimation, called the “generalized method of moments” (GMM) which combines any three moments of the GG distribution. The main advantage of this general method is that it has many of the previously proposed methods of estimation as special cases. We also give a general formula for the variance of theT-year eventX T obtained by the GMM along with a general formula for the parameter estimates and also for the covariances and correlation coefficients between any pair of such estimates. By applying the GMM and carefully choosing the order of the moments that are used in the estimation one can significantly reduce the variance ofT-year events for the range of return periods that are of interest.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01550839
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