ALBERT

Description: Abstract In this study, we report 20 years of data from three ponderosa pine plantations in northern California. Our sites span a natural gradient of forest productivity where climate variability and edaphic conditions delineate marked differences in baseline productivity (approximately threefold). Experimental herbicide application and fertilization significantly reduced competition and improved tree growth by 1.4‐ to 2.2‐fold across sites. At the site of lowest productivity, where soils are poorly developed and water limiting, tree growth increased strongly in response to understory suppression. Small but significant improvements in tree growth were observed in response to understory suppression at the moderate‐productivity site. At the site of highest productivity, where climate is favorable and soils well developed, fertilization increased productivity to a greater extent than did understory suppression. In most cases, the effect of understory suppression and fertilization caused an unexpected growth release, exceeding the anticipated maximum productivity by 〉5 m of additional height and 60–100% more basal area. At the site of highest productivity, however, understory suppression caused a weak increase on late‐season growth compared to fertilization alone, suggesting a beneficial effect of understory vegetation on long‐term growth at that site. Tree ring cellulose carbon isotopes indicate a negative relationship between intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) and tree growth in control stands, which shifted to a positive relationship as both iWUE and tree growth increased in response to management. Cellulose oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) were positively correlated with iWUE and negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit across sites, but δ18O was not a strong predictor of tree growth.

Description: Abstract Aims As global temperatures rise, the survival of many species may hinge on whether they can shift their climatic niches quickly enough to avoid extinction. Previous analyses among species and populations suggest that species’ niches change far slower than rates of projected climate change. However, it is unclear how quickly niches can change over the timeframe most relevant to global warming (decades instead of thousands or millions of years). Here, we use data from introduced species to assess how quickly climatic niches can change over decadal timescales. Location Global. Methods We analyse climatic data from 76 reptile and amphibian species introduced into the USA. We test for a relationship between species climatic‐niche values in their native and introduced ranges. We also quantify niche shifts in introduced populations relative to their native ranges and the rate of change associated with these shifts. We then compare these rate estimates to those estimated among species and to projected rates of future climate change. Results Remarkably, niche shifts in introduced species are roughly a million times faster than niche shifts among species in their native ranges and roughly 10 times faster than rates of projected climate change. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate that dramatic and rapid niche shifts are possible, although these may be limited in species’ native ranges by biotic interactions and other factors.

Description: Abstract Chlorophyll fluorometry is one of the most commonly implemented approaches for estimating phytoplankton biomass in situ, despite documented sources of natural variability and instrumental uncertainty in the relationship between in vivo fluorescence and chlorophyll concentration. A number of strategies are employed to minimize errors and quantify natural variability in this relationship in the open ocean. However, the assumptions underlying these approaches are unsupported in coastal waters due to the short temporal and small spatial scales of variability, as well as the optical complexity. The largest source of variability in the in situ chlorophyll fluorometric signal is nonphotochemical quenching (NPQ). Typically, unquenched nighttime observations are interpolated over the quenched daytime interval, but this assumes a spatial homogeneity not found in tidally impacted coastal waters. Here, we present a model that provides a tidally resolved correction for NPQ in moored chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. The output of the model is a time series of unquenched chlorophyll fluorescence in tidal endmembers (high and low tide extremes), and thus a time series of phytoplankton biomass growth and loss in these endmember populations. Comparison between modeled and measured unquenched time series yields quantification of nonconservative variations in phytoplankton biomass. Tidally modeled interpolation between these endmember time series yields a highly resolved time series of unquenched daytime chlorophyll fluorescence values at the location of the moored sensor. Such data sets provide a critical opportunity for validating the satellite remotely sensed ocean color chlorophyll concentration data product in coastal waters.

Description: Evergreen broadleaf forests (EBFs) illustrated higher temporal stability and resistance of EVI than other biomes. Preserving EBFs is beneficial for global vegetation productivity stability and climate mitigation. Abstract Global increase in drought occurrences threatens the stability of terrestrial ecosystem functioning. Evergreen broadleaf forests (EBFs) keep leaves throughout the year, and therefore could experience higher drought risks than other biomes. However, the recent temporal variability of global vegetation productivity or land carbon sink is mainly driven by non‐evergreen ecosystems, such as semiarid grasslands, croplands, and boreal forests. Thus, we hypothesize that EBFs have higher stability than other biomes under the increasingly extreme droughts. Here we use long‐term Standardized Precipitation and Evaporation Index (SPEI) data and satellite‐derived Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) products to quantify the temporal stability (ratio of mean annual EVI to its SD), resistance (ability to maintain its original levels during droughts), and resilience (rate of EVI recovering to pre‐drought levels) at biome and global scales. We identified significantly increasing trends of annual drought severity (SPEI range: −0.08 to −1.80), area (areal fraction range: 2%–19%), and duration (month range: 7.9–9.1) in the EBF biome over 2000–2014. However, EBFs showed the highest resistance of EVI to droughts, but no significant differences in resilience of EVI to droughts were found among biomes (forests, grasslands, savannas, and shrublands). Global resistance and resilience of EVI to droughts were largely affected by temperature and solar radiation. These findings suggest that EBFs have higher stability than other biomes despite the greater drought exposure. Thus, the conservation of EBFs is critical for stabilizing global vegetation productivity and land carbon sink under more‐intense climate extremes in the future.

Description: Projected changes in coastal metacommunities driven by ocean warming and acidification based on the elements of the metacommunity structure framework of Leibold and Mikkelson (Oikos 97:237, 2002) and Presley, Higgins, and Willig (Oikos 119:908, 2010). Under present‐day conditions (a) metacommunity is structured by habitat environmental filtering. Under future climate conditions (b) metacommunity is randomly structured. Abstract Predictions of the effects of global change on ecological communities are largely based on single habitats. Yet in nature, habitats are interconnected through the exchange of energy and organisms, and the responses of local communities may not extend to emerging community networks (i.e., metacommunities). Using large mesocosms and meiofauna communities as a model system, we investigated the interactive effects of ocean warming and acidification on the structure of marine metacommunities from three shallow‐water habitats: sandy soft‐bottoms, marine vegetation, and rocky reef substrates. Primary producers and detritus—key food sources for meiofauna—increased in biomass under the combined effect of temperature and acidification. The enhanced bottom‐up forcing boosted nematode densities but impoverished the functional and trophic diversity of nematode metacommunities. The combined climate stressors further homogenized meiofauna communities across habitats. Under present‐day conditions metacommunities were structured by habitat type, but under future conditions they showed an unstructured random pattern with fast‐growing generalist species dominating the communities of all habitats. Homogenization was likely driven by local species extinctions, reducing interspecific competition that otherwise could have prevented single species from dominating multiple niches. Our findings reveal that climate change may simplify metacommunity structure and prompt biodiversity loss, which may affect the biological organization and resilience of marine communities.

Description: Explaining interspecific variation in autumn bird migration phenology trends has been challenging. We performed a spatially explicit time window analysis of weather effects on mean autumn passage of four trans‐Saharan and six intra‐European passerines at the island of Heligoland (Germany) over a 55‐year period (1960–2014). Weather variables at the breeding and stopover grounds explained up to 80% of the species‐specific interannual variability in autumn passage. Overall, wind conditions were most important, but the climatic contributions to the temporal trend in autumn migration phenology consisted of a potpourri of wind, precipitation and temperature effects. Abstract Climate change has caused a clear and univocal trend towards advancement in spring phenology. Changes in autumn phenology are much more diverse, with advancement, delays, and ‘no change' all occurring frequently. For migratory birds, patterns in autumn migration phenology trends have been identified based on ecological and life‐history traits. Explaining interspecific variation has nevertheless been challenging, and the underlying mechanisms have remained elusive. Radar studies on non‐species‐specific autumn migration intensity have repeatedly suggested that there are strong links with weather. In long‐term species‐specific studies, the variance in autumn migration phenology explained by weather has, nevertheless, been rather low, or a relationship was even lacking entirely. We performed a spatially explicit time window analysis of weather effects on mean autumn passage of four trans‐Saharan and six intra‐European passerines to gain insights into this apparent contradiction. We analysed data from standardized daily captures at the Heligoland island constant‐effort site (Germany), in combination with gridded daily temperature, precipitation and wind data over a 55‐year period (1960–2014), across northern Europe. Weather variables at the breeding and stopover grounds explained up to 80% of the species‐specific interannual variability in autumn passage. Overall, wind conditions were most important. For intra‐European migrants, wind was even twice as important as either temperature or precipitation, and the pattern also held in terms of relative contributions of each climate variable to the temporal trends in autumn phenology. For the trans‐Saharan migrants, however, the pattern of relative trend contributions was completely reversed. Temperature and precipitation had strong trend contributions, while wind conditions had only a minor impact because they did not show any strong temporal trends. As such, understanding species‐specific effects of climate on autumn phenology not only provides unique insights into each species' ecology but also how these effects shape the observed interspecific heterogeneity in autumn phenological trends.

Description: Abstract Aim Our aim was to collect sightings data on oceanic manta rays (Mobula birostris) within the Raja Ampat Archipelago to better understand their population dynamics within the region. These data were compared with environmental variables to seek correlates that may explain any variations in observed sightings frequency. Combined, it is hoped this knowledge will be used to aid effective management of this species in the region. Location Raja Ampat Archipelago, West Papua, Indonesia. Methods We collected and catalogued photo‐identification of individuals to create a sightings database. To generate estimates of abundance, survival, sighting probability and recruitment to the population, we used a POPAN mark–recapture model. We considered time‐varying and fixed values for each parameter and possible covariate relationships of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sex. Results A total of 588 individuals were identified over six years, of which 72.4% were female, and 28.2% of individuals were resighted. There was an exponential increase in sightings during the 2015–2016 ENSO event despite constant effort; significant correlation was found between sightings and the multivariate ENSO index and with sea surface temperatures but not with chlorophyll‐a. Mark–recapture analysis shows a clear relationship between ENSO and entry probability, and the most parsimonious model estimated a superpopulation size N of 1875 individuals. Main conclusion Oceanic manta ray distributions appear to be impacted by ENSO‐related climate phenomena. Our findings on the relationship of ENSO to manta sightings and distribution indicate that oceanic manta rays are likely sensitive to large‐scale climatic variability. This illustrates the potential impacts of climate change on oceanic manta populations and the need to consider climate impacts in developing management strategies. Continued photo‐ID, tagging and population genetics would greatly enhance knowledge and help develop management strategies that bolster conservation of the species.