ALBERT

Notes: Measurements of rates of growth and senescence of leaf lamina per tiller and of changes in tiller population densities were made in three experiments designed to investigate the influence of sward slate on leaf turnover and net production under continuous stocking.In each experiment initially uniform swards were fenced to provide four plots on which animal numbers were adjusted twice weekly to give a series of swards maintained as nearly as possible in a steady state with respect to sward surface height (range 1.1–6.4 cm) and herbage mass (range 440–2690 kg OM ha−1). Two experiments were carried out in July–September on vegetative swards and one in May–June on a reproductive sward. Measurements were begun 3–7 weeks after treatments were started and were repeated weekly during 3–4 week measurement periods.In all three experiments the rate of lamina growth per tiller increased linearly with an increase in sward surface height and herbage mass. In the two experiments conducted in July–August this relationship was partially offset by a linear increase in the rate of senescence per tiller but net production per tiller also increased linearly in relation to sward height and mass. In the experiment conducted in May–June the rates of growth and senescence per tiller increased in parallel so that net production per tiller showed no relationship with sward condition.Tiller population densities in the July–August experiments were highest in swards maintained between 2 and 3 cm surface height and declined in swards maintained above and below this height. In the experiment in May–June tiller numbers were similar in all treatments prior to the summer solstice but diverged in a manner similar to the other experiments later in the year.The rate of lamina growth per unit area increased in a manner consistent with an asymptotic relationship and the rate of senescence increased linearly with increasing sward height and mass in all three experiments. Net production per unit area was reduced on swards below about 2.5 cm in height but was insensitive to variation in sward surface height between 2.5 and 6.0 cm (approximately 1000–2500 kg OM ha−1 herbage mass).The effectiveness of adjustments in tiller numbers and production per tiller and of changes in the balance between growth and senescence as mechanisms of sward homeostatis, together with their implications in the scope for manipulating herbage production by grazing management are discussed briefly.

Notes: There was a three-fold variation in epicuticular wax content between populations of white clover and a five-fold variation between populations of red clover. The mean for all populations of red clovers was twice that of white. There was also a two- to three-fold variation within each population.The epicuticular wax content of white and red clovers grown in the field showed an increase with age. Thin layer chromatography showed no qualitative differences in the epicuticular waxes extracted either between populations or with sampling date.The higher levels of epicuticular wax found in some clovers were considered to be of possible significance as a source of antifoaming compounds in bloat-inducing pastures.

Notes: Differences in ease of digestion of bundle sheath cell walls of leaf blades of Panicum spp. are shown to be associated with differences in bundle sheath cell wall structure, including the presence or absence of a suberized lamella. These structural differences are correlated with photo-synthetic type (viz. C3, intermediate C3/C4, and the C4 types, PCK, NADP-ME and NAD-ME), as are mesophyll: bundle sheath area ratios.

Notes: The construction of a transducer and the use of a recording system to measure jaw movements of grazing sheep is described, The time spent grazing, ruminating and idling may be measured by this equipment and the data produced automatically processed using a microprocessor which determines each minute whether the animal is grazing, ruminating or idling and also summarizes these data to give total times. The accuracy of this technique in relation to manual observation is discussed.

Notes: The effect of two heights of cutting (5 and 8 cm) on the dry matter harvested and persistency of a range of different grass species and varieties were monitored over a 3-year period (1976 to 1978). Dry matter harvested was measured in the second and third harvest year and persistence of sown grass was assessed at the end of the first and third harvest year. The grasses were managed under a frequent cutting system, i.e. simulated grazing. Results showed that at the low cutting height tetraploid hybrid ryegrasses and diploid Italian ryegrasses in the third harvest year gave lower annual dry matter harvests of sown grass and were less persistent than at the high cutting height, whilst, in contrast, perennial ryegrasses gave higher annual harvests of sown grass but persistency was unaffected. In general at the low cutting height varieties of cocksfoot, meadow fescue and tall fescue gave comparatively higher annual harvests of sown grass in the second harvest year but lower yields of sown grass in the third harvest year. A notable exception was Cambria cocksfoot which in the second harvest year gave higher yields of sown grass and was more persistent at the low cutting height.However, at 5 cm cutting height, the proportions of weed grasses (mainly Poa spp.) in swards sown to tetraploid hybrid ryegrasses and diploid Italian ryegrasses were generally greater, particularly in mid-season.

Notes: Laminae of Lolium perenne and Phleum pratense were tested mechanically and the results analysed using engineering composite theory and fracture mechanics. As the lamina dries the fibres double in stiffness. The intervening cells show a sevenfold increase in stiffness below 20% water content (based on dry weight). Work to fracture across the veins is almost independent of water content, but below 50% water content the mode of fracture changes. It is predicted that total fibre content will not affect hay shatter; total protein content may affect it by altering the water-binding properties.

Notes: Grass silages made from first-harvest perennial ryegrass in mid-May and early-June and termed high-D and low-D respectively had mean DOMD values of 694 and 633 g kg−1 and were offered ad libitum to twelve Ayrshire cows in a 16-week feeding experiment using a cyclic changeover design. The silages were supplemented with a concentrate containing 363g CP per kg DM at daily rates of 1.5, 3.0 and 4.5 kg per cow. The average daily intakes of silage DM were 12.6 and 11.1 kg per cow on the high- and low-D silage treatments respectively, and were not significantly different on the three concentrate treatments. The mean daily milk yields were 171, 18.6 and 21.0 kg per cow on the low-D silage treatments, and 19.6, 21.2 and 22.8 kg per cow on the high-D silage treatments at the 1.5, 3.0 and 4.5 kg rates of concentrate feeding respectively. Fat and lactose concentrations in the milk were not affected significantly by treatment, whereas the CP and SNF concentrations increased progressively and significantly as the rate of supplementary feeding increased. It is concluded that a high-protein concentrate supplement allows silage to make the maximum contribution in the diet, and gives a high response in terms of milk yield and composition.

Notes: Grass which had grown without interruption from late April was cut as for hay in early July in each of 2 years. Fifteen dates of removal of the cut herbage were compared ranging, at 1-d intervals, from the day of cutting to 14 d after cutting. Sward regrowth was studied.A delay of 5 d in removing cut herbage reduced herbage dry matter harvested during the remainder of the growing season by 9% and a delay of 10 d reduced yield by 16%. Delaying the removal of cut herbage reduced the density of grass tillers considerably in the short term, but the effect had worn off in 8 to 12 weeks. The presence of cut herbage reduced the rate of extension of leaf blades considerably. Delaying the removal of cut herbage reduced the area per leaf blade and the weight per unit area and these effects persisted for several weeks. Grass growing under cut herbage had a less negative leaf water potential and a rather cooler but much darker environment in which to grow than uncovered grass.

Notes: Book reviews in this article: Milk from Grass Edited by C. Thomas and J. W. O. Young Nitrogen Fixation in Legumes Edited by J. M. Vincent Herbage Intake Handbook Edited by J. D. Leaver Man's Proper Study By Richard J. Colyer Introduction to Sheep Fanning By R. G. Johnston

Notes: Information about the grazing behaviour and the return of dung to pasture by lactating dairy cows was collected from stocking rate experiments in northern Victoria. Grazing behaviour was observed for 24-h periods in mid-summer in two years. Grazing time increased as herbage allowance decreased to about 32 kg DM cow−1 d−1 but as herbage allowance decreased further grazing time also decreased. A herbage allowance of 32 kg DM cow−1 d−1 corresponded to a stocking rate of about 5.5 cows ha−1. This effect of herbage allowance on grazing time may have been confounded by herbage mass, however. Rumination time of the cows increased by 003 h for each kg increase in herbage allowance while resting time was not affected by treatment.The effects of stocking rate on some of the characteristics of faecal output were measured for a 3-d period in mid-summer. The number of pats deposited per cow daily declined by 0.66 for each unit increase in stocking rate. The fresh weight of dung also declined as stocking rate increased by 0.16 kg per unit of stocking rate. While the values for the amounts of dung deposited on the pasture by the cows at the lower stocking rates are similar to many of those reported in the literature, this study has quantified the way in which stocking rate may influence this in one instance. Furthermore, provided that some measure of herbage intake is made when measurements of dung excretion are performed, it is suggested that estimates of in vivo digestibility can be obtained.

Notes: Two red clover (Trifolium pratense) cultivars, Red Head (tetraploid) and Kuhn (diploid), were sown at a seed rate of 13 kg ha−1 either alone or in mixture with Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) cv. RvP sown at seed rates of 10, 15, 20 or 30 kg ha−1. RvP was also sown alone at a seed rate of 30 kg ha−1 and received nil or 300 kg ha−1 fertilizer a−1 fertilizer N. All plots were established using the barley cultivar Midas sown at a seed rate of 100 kg ha−1 as a nurse crop.Neither clover cultivar nor ryegrass seed rate significantly influenced either dry matter harvested or botanical composition over the 3 harvest years. On average over all years the grass-clover mixtures produced 75% of the yield of the N-fertilized RvP, 125% of the clover monocultures and 225% of the unfertilized RvP. The red clover contribution to the total dry matter harvested of the mixtures averaged 45–60%. The dry matter concentrations of the mixtures were considerably higher than those of the pure clover stands. In the third year yields were markedly reduced in comparison with those in the first and second years.It was concluded that Italian ryegrass can be a suitable companion grass for red clover. Its superior yielding capacity over other grasses such as perennial ryegrass or timothy under a conservation management can be coupled to advantage with red clover to give a sward which Is essentially stable, at least over a 2- to 3-year cropping period, although giving slightly reduced yields in the third year. Italian ryegrass-red clover mixtures, without the use of fertilizer N, can produce high DM yields of good quality herbage.

Notes: Red clover cv. Hungaropoly was slot-seeded into a perennial ryegrass-dominant sward in April 1979. Glyphosate and paraquat were applied separately as bandsprays each at two doses and at two band widths. Control plots were either slot-seeded without a herbicide bandspray or received ±150 kg N ha−1 a−1. Red clover establishment was assessed and amounts of dry matter (DM) and total N accumulated were measured at two harvests in 1979 and three harvests in 1980. Bandspraying increased seedling vigour and development and resulted in the eventual replacement of 1 t grass DM ha−1 by an equivalent amount of red clover. Of the treatment variables investigated, bandspray width had the greatest influence on red clover establishment and productivity. The slot-seeded area, meaned for all treatments, produced a total of 6.40 and 13.16 t DM ha−1 in 1979 and 1980. This was estimated to be equivalent to the all-grass sward receiving 112 kg N ha−1 a−1 during the second year of the experiment or 238 kg N ha−1 over the 2 years when measured in terms of N yield. Slot-seeding overcomes several of the problems associated with conventional establishment of red clover.

Notes: Two experiments were conducted to determine the effect of pre-harvest treatment by formic acid spray on the moisture concentration (MC) of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) in vegetative growth. In Experiment 1 aqueous solutions containing 0.080, 0.148 and 0.259 kg formic acid per litre were applied to a perennial ryegrass sward (fresh matter yield 21.0 t ha−1) at a constant volume of 41.2 litres t−1to give active ingredient application rates of 3.5, 6.0 and 11.5 kg t−1 respectively. In Experiment 2 similar solutions were applied to a perennial ryegrass sward (fresh matter yield of 6.9 t ha−1) at 35.2, 19.0 and 10.9 litres t−1 respectively to give a constant formic acid application of 2.8 kg t−1. The changes in MC and chemical composition after treatment with acid were compared with those in untreated plotsIn both experiments treatment with acid significantly reduced the MC (P 〈 0.001) within 5 h of treatment from 4.4 to 3.0 kg per kg of dry matter (DM) in Experiment 1 and from 3.0 to 2.6 kg per kg DM in Experiment 2. There was no effect of level of acid applied in Experiment 1 or of the volume of water applied with the low level of acid in Experiment 2 on the changes in MC of acid-treated plots. There was however a significant (P 〈 0.00l) difference between the MC of plots treated with acid and those untreated which was maintained in Experiment I for up to 9 d even during rainfall.There were no differences between the chemical compositions of samples from acid-treated plots in either Experiment I or 2 or between untreated and acid-treated plots in Experiment 2. However there were significant differences between untreated and acid-treated plots in Experiment 1 for the content of nitrogen (N), water-soluble carbohydrate (WSC) and digestible organic matter (DOM). There were changes in the content of N, WSC and DOM with time in both experiments. In Experiment I there was an interaction between sampling time and treatment for both N and WSC but not for DOM. Compared with untreated plots, treatment with acid at all levels accelerated the loss of WSC and delayed the fall in N content. There were no such interactions in Experiment 2.

Notes: Awned seeds of four grasses were submitted to humidity changes on dry and damp soil to see how far the awns assisted in distribution and seed burial. The results indicate that awns on their own are probably of limited importance. In another study, seeds of seven species were soaked in water with high or low oxygen levels to determine whether dormancy could be induced. Waterlogging delayed germination briefly but did not induce dormancy except in Avena fatua. Oxygen level proved unimportant. The effect of temperature on germination and dormancy was examined in seeds of Agrostis capillars. Seeds of this species germinated best at fluctuating temperatures with a minimum difference of 10°C between day and night temperatures. Constant or slightly fluctuating temperatures over 20°C or under 10°C induced dormancy in a small percentage of seeds.

Notes: Changes in the population of stem-boring Dipterous larvae (including Oscinella frit) were examined weekly for a year on plots of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne cv. S24). The herbage net regrowth rate of these plots and of plots receiving the pesticide, phorate, was also monitored. Herbage net regrowth rates were greatest in April and October. At the same times the differences in net regrowth between treated and untreated plots were greatest, thus indicating the periods of the greatest loss of production due to pest damage to the sward.Populations of stem-boring larvae fell below 100 m−2 for only 4 weeks in the year and were maximal in autumn and early winter. Larval mortality exceeded 50% during the winter period. A correlation was found between larval activity and sward damage.

Notes: Swards of Phalaris aquatica-Trifolium subterraneum were subjected to four defoliation treatments—zero, low (11 sheep ha−1) and high (22 sheep ha−1) stocking rates, and weekly cutting. At high stocking rate the annual grass Hordeum leporinum dominated while clover was dominant at low and zero stocking rates. Weekly cutting suppressed species other than clover and so failed to simulate grazing.There were similarities in net herbage production between zero and lightly grazed swards and between heavily grazed and repeatedly cut swards. Net herbage production decreased in the order undisturbed sward 〈 lightly grazed sward 〈 heavily grazed sward 〈 repeatedly cut sward.When sheep grazed swards where herbage mass was low their daily consumption of herbage, and therefore liveweight change, depended on their recent grazing experience. Sheep accustomed to swards where herbage mass was low ate more because they grazed for much longer each day than unaccustomed sheep, although they selected a diet of similar digestibility.

Notes: A preliminary field experiment on a sward cut six times during 1978 indicated that total grass herbage harvested was negatively related to the number of Rumex obtusifolius plants present; densities of five to ten plants m−2 resulted in reductions of up to 30%, although the total quantity of herbage harvested (including Rumex) may have remained constant. However, R. obtusifolius densities did not significantly affect grass yield during the first half of the growing season. A negative relationship between R. obtusifolius ground cover and grass yield, particularly from late July onwards, was shown in a second field experiment during 1979 and 1980 using a 3-cut management. It was estimated that to produce a 20% reduction in grass growth in July-August and October, R. obtusifolius ground covers of 30% and 20% respectively were needed. Sixty per cent of the total herbage harvested in 1980 consisted of R. obtusifolius. These results indicate the damage that can be caused by this species and suggest that control measures should be taken before early summer.

Notes: A total of 104 cultivars of six agricultural grass species were compared under controlled conditions for their relative susceptibility to the common soil-borne fungus Fusarium culmorum (W.G.Sm.) Sacc. A number of the perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) cultivars showed a high degree of resistance, their emergence being little reduced under the stringent test conditions. The emergence of others was, however, severely affected. Italian ryegrass (L. multiflorum) cultivars generally had a high level of resistance, the outstanding exception being cv. Leda Daehnfeldt which proved very sensitive. None of the cultivars of cocksfoot (Dactylis glomerata), timothy (Phleum pratense), meadow fescue (Festuca pratensis) or tall fescue (F. arundinaceae) which were tested had more than a moderate level of resistance and most were highly susceptible.The vigour of ryegrass seedlings was, in most cases, closely correlated with percentage emergence but was less closely correlated in the more susceptible species. These often had a very low emergence but those seedlings which did establish were frequently of a size similar to that of healthy plants.Treatment of grass seed with a fungicide mixture of benomyl (15% a.i.) plus captan (60% a.i.) provided excellent protection against F. culmorum on even the most susceptible cultivars.Drazoxolon (40% a.i.) was, however, much less effective.

Notes: In field trials in 1979–81, perennial ryegrass cultivars Royal and Majestic (amenity) and Morenne (agricultural) produced maximum seed yields at levels of applied N ranging from 40 kg ha−1 to 160 kg ha−1. Available soil N levels were estimated at 55 kg ha−1; hence maximum seed yields were obtained at total nitrogen levels of 95–135 kg ha−1 in Royal, 95–215 kg ha−1 in Morenne, and 175–215 kg ha−1 in Majestic.Applied N at rates above 120 kg ha−1 either reduced or did not significantly increase seed yield, decreased seed numbers per unit area and decreased spikelets per tiller and seeds per spikelet.The use of a growth regulator increased seed yields by preventing lodging, but did so irrespective of nitrogen application rate. It is suggested that failure to increase seed yield at high N rates is a result not of poor pollination because of lodging, but seed abortion as a consequence of competition for assimilate supply by secondary vegetative tillers.

Notes: Swards were developed from plants of contrasting populations of Dactylis glomerata L. selected for high and low dry-matter (DM) production in monocultures and mixed cultures grown during 1970 and 1971. DM production of these mono-genotype swards was assessed during 1974. Those swards developed from the divergent selections from monocultures maintained a significant difference between the high and low selections, whereas those developed from selections out of mixed cultures showed no significant difference in yield. These results are consistent with earlier reports that there is no positive relationship between competitive ability in mixed cultures and vigour in pure stands. The implications of the physiological basis of these responses in terms of grass breeding are discussed.

Notes: The appearance of successive leaves on labelled tillers of S24 perennial ryegrass, and their subsequent death, were monitored for 1 year on cut plots on which four levels of N fertilizer were applied.A new leaf appeared about once every 15 d from the end of April until the beginning of September, and about once every 52 d from the end of October to the middle of February. Rate of appearance changed rapidly during September and October, and again from mid-February until the end of April. The response of leaf appearance rate to temperature changed early in the year; the effect of overwintering is discussed.Leaf lifespan was 50–60 d in summer and 120–140 d in autumn and early winter, and was influenced by conditions either during expansion of the leaf or shortly afterwards.The results are discussed in relation to the construction of a model to describe changes in the herbage available to animals grazing a grass sward.

Notes: A mathematical model which simulates the potential production and utilization of herbage on perennial ryegrass and grass-white clover swards in the context of an 18-month beef enterprise is described. Using the model the potential costs and benefits of replacing grass by grass-clover mixtures have been determined. Potentially grass-clover swards receiving no fertilizer N are shown to have annual DM yields equivalent to ryegrass swards receiving at least 300 kg N ha −1. Apart from the benefits of reduced fertilizer N usage there appear to be indirect benefits related to a lower concentrate requirement per head. In consequence, from an economic viewpoint grass-clover swards potentially compare very favourably with heavily fertilized grass swards, even if account is taken of the opportunity costs of lower stocking rates associated with grass-clover systems. However, this conclusion awaits experimental confirmation.

Notes: Earlier studies have concluded that for a dairy enterprise the most profitable conservation strategy, where cutting and grazing areas are separate, is generally associated with relatively low-digestibility silage. The aim of this study has been to investigate whether this conclusion remains true where cutting and grazing are integrated. A mathematical model of grass production and utilization by a dairy enterprise has been developed from information collected from a variety of experimental sources. It was found that cutting strategies aimed at making low-digestibility silage could not automatically be regarded as the most profitable. In good grass-growing conditions strategies resulting in low-digestibility silage did appear to offer the highest gross margins per unit area, but under average and poor growth conditions the greatest profits were associated with high-digestibility silage strategies. In particular, it was noted that the timing and frequency of conservation cuts influenced the efficiency with which grass could be utilized on the grazing areas and this fact rather than yield of conserved material influenced the comparative biological and economic efficiency of the different cutting strategies.

Notes: A study was conducted to determine the influence of herbage mass under continuous stocking management with sheep on rates of herbage growth (G), senescence (S) and net production of green herbage (NP) in a mixed-species sward of Lolium perenne. Poa annua and Trifolium repens. Plots were maintained in as nearly constant herbage mass as possible at 500, 700, 1000 and 1700 kg organic matter (OM) ha−1 by continuous but variable stocking with sheep for the period May to July inclusive. Estimates of G, S and NP were obtained for each species from repeated measurements over two 2-week periods on individually identified grass tillers or clover stolons. Estimates of species population densities enabled estimates of G. S and NP per unit area to be made.Rates of G were higher and of S were lower for Lolium tillers and Trifolium stolons than for Poa tillers. The laminae of Poa tillers occupied inferior positions in the canopy of the swards maintained at higher herbage masses and were less accessible to the grazing animals, so that Poa tissue was less well utilized.The total population densities of tillers and stolons declined at herbage masses both above and below 700 kg OM ha−1. The rate of G for the three species combined increased with herbage

Notes: The most likely reasons for seeding failures of sod-seeded lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) were determined from eight field experiments, where the effects of a range of pesticides on the establishment of and damage to lucerne were compared. The experiments were conducted during 1979–80 at four sites near Ithaca, N.Y., USA. Pesticides evaluated were: methyl bromide (MeBr), carbofuran, acylalanine (1979, 1980); fonofos, diazinon, methiocarb, metaldehyde and combinations of carbofuran with methiocarb or metaldehyde (1980). Seeded areas were pretreated with glyphosate for vegetation control.In 1979 seedling losses were decreased by carbofuran and methyl bromide whereas in 1980 seedling losses were decreased by methyl bromide at two sites and by methiocarb at all sites. Methiocarb was the only pesticide to reduce defoliation damage. The effect of combining methiocarb and metaldehyde each with carbofuran tended to be additive in terms of reducing seedling numbers and damage, and increasing yield. Treatment effects on lucerne yield were still apparent up to 12 months after seeding. Based on the consistent results of methiocarb, it was concluded that molluscs were probably the main factor limiting the establishment of sod-seeded lucerne but an arthropod component also appeared to be involved.

Notes: Book Reviews in this article: Silage in Milk Production By A. J. Corrall, H. D. St C. Neal and J. M. Wilkinson Sward Measurement Handbook Edited by J. Hodgson, R. D. Baker, Alison Davies, A. S. Laidlaw and J. D. Leaver Managing Agricultural Systems By G. E. Dalton

Notes: Faeces of cattle, pronghorn and rabbit were collected from the Central Plains Experimental Range, Colorado, 6, 18 and 30 months after being excreted. The faecal material was placed in moistened potting soil and seedling emergence observed. Bouteloua gracilis (blue grama grass) and Sporobolus cryptandrus (sand drop seed), emerged in abundance from cattle dung. Emergence of B. gracilis decreased with increasing period of exposure before collection, but emergence of S. cryptandrus increased with exposure. Forbs dominated the seedling populations in pronghorn dung, and few seedling populations of any species emerged from rabbit dung. The results are discussed in relation to the effect of large herbivores on the establishment of species from seed in rangeland.

Notes: The effect of temperature on the nutritive value of Macroptilium atropurpureum cv. Siratro and line 10–105 was determined in a controlled environment at day/night temperatures of 24/18, 30/24 and 36/30°C, and a 13-h daylength. Estimated dry matter digestibility, cell wall and lignin concentrations of leaf, stem and stubble were measured in two 5-week regrowth cuts.Siratro and line 10–105 were similar in digestibility and responded similarly to temperature with whole tops, stem and stubble decreasing by an average of 0.0023, 0.0026 and 0.0056 units of digestibility for each 1°C rise in growth temperature. These changes reflect the increase in cell wall and lignin concentrations with higher temperature.The digestibility of young, just-expanded leaves was increased by increased growth temperature. This effect may be explained by the faster rate of leaf expansion at high temperature which reduced cell wall and lignin concentrations at this stage of leaf development. However, for the bulk leaf fraction digestibility was unaffected by temperature. Leafiness declined at high temperatures.

Notes: This second paper concerned with effects of prolonged spring defoliations on two early perennial ryegrass varieties (Cropper and RvP Hay Pasture), an intermediate perennial ryegrass (Talbot) and an early cocksfoot (Roskilde) examines the effects of different closing dates on ear emergence, weekly DOMD (in vitro) and conservation yields. The grasses were mown fortnightly to simulate sheep grazing from January until three closing dates, 19 April, 3 May or 17 May, in 1978 and 1979. A set of plots was left undefoliated. All plots were sampled weekly from 2 or 3 weeks after 17 May until the end of June or early July.Prolonged mowing resulted in a small delaying effect on 50% ear emergence of the ryegrasses. The maximum delay was 3 d with the latest closing date. Under this treatment, ear emergence of the cocksfoot was delayed by an average of 12 d but by only 0–4 d under the earlier closing dates. Delay in date of closing caused a significant delay in the time to reach a given DOMD but the effect was largely confined to the latest closing date and was greatest for the cocksfoot. The time when 670 g kg−1 DOMD was reached was delayed in the ryegrasses by no more than 5 d, except for a 12-d delay in the intermediate ryegrass in 1978 following the late closing date. Under this treatment the delay for the cocksfoot was 8 d in both years. The early ryegrasses produced stemmy regrowths.

Notes: For the 2 years 1977 and 1978 Masham ewes grazed a perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne cv. S24) pasture from the beginning of April until the end of September each year. Twelve ewes were allocated to each of the three stocking rate treatments, 12 (L), 16 (M) and 20 (H) ewes per ha. Each treatment was rotationally grazed around six paddocks with a forward creep for the lambs. Conservation cuts were taken from each treatment in late May and were generally sufficient to cover a 3-month winter feeding period for treatments L and M but were always insufficient for treatment H. Lambing took place at pasture during the second half of May. No concentrates were fed to the ewes during late pregnancy or lactation but lamb birth weights (4–8 kg) and lamb growth rates over the first 4 weeks (240 g d−l) were satisfactory. Organic matter intakes (OMI)of grass by the pregnant ewes(1816,1844 g OMI ewe−1) were not affected by the stocking rate. Intake of grass by the lactating ewes was affected by year and by stocking rate. The overall growth rate of lambs was higher on treatment L than either M or H but decreased on all treatments during the latter half of the grazing season, resulting in 43% of L and only 3% of M and H lambs being fit for slaughter by the end of September. The main features of this time of lambing are low costs and the production of predominantly store lambs.

Notes: A trial was carried out to investigate whether or not sheep grazing at stocking rates of 22 (low) and 44 (high) ha−1 select red clover from a red clover-perennial ryegrass sward, The distribution of botanical and morphological components was assessed in consecutive 5-cm layers through the canopy inside and outside exclosure cages moved every 2 weeks for 6 weeks. The difference between inside and outside cages for a given layer was an indication of the amount of each component consumed from that position in the sward, and the corresponding difference for clover content was considered an indication of selection.Evidence of selection was observed over the third and fourth weeks of grazing, especially in the high stocking rate treatment. Laminae of red clover were selected in preference to other plant parts and were grazed throughout the depth of the canopy in contrast to grass. The basal layer at the high stocking rate during weeks 5 and 6 was not grazed suggesting that the crown of red clover may be protected from severe overgrazing by accumulation of dead matter.It was concluded that the low herbage density of red clover-grass swards allowed the occurrence of selection which was most pronounced when the sward was being grazed down relatively quickly.

Notes: An attempt was made to determine monetary values for grass which might be used by researchers to assess the likely economic implications of their findings. It is shown that the value of extra grass production will vary considerably depending on the use made of it. At 1982 price levels, estimated values for grass in the field ranged from 1–4 to 10–6 pence kg−1 DM, with a modal value around 3–5 pence kg−1 DM. At the same time, the seasonal distribution of the extra grass production is important since the value of extra grass at different points in the growing season may vary markedly. The way in which these values for grass may be used is illustrated, using as an example weed control during sward establishment. Finally, the sensitivity of investment returns to changes in the value placed on grass is discussed. Extreme caution is necessary in drawing general conclusions about benefits and costs from an evaluation based on a specific value for grass.

Notes: In three separate feeding experiments using a total of twenty-six individually-housed Ayrshire cows, three wilted silages made from Blanca white clover were offered ad libitum with either different supplements or different proportions of grass silage. The clover silages contained 680 g white clover kg−1 on a DM basis, and had a mean DM concentration of 263 g kg−1 with 231 g CP kg−1 DM and 91 g ammonia-N kg−1 N. The pH values averaged 4·16 and the DOMD concentrations 611 g kg−1. In experiment 1 the daily intake of clover silage given alone was 15.2 kg DM per cow, i.e. 30·1 g kg−1 live weight, and decreased by 0·76 kg DM kg−1 barley DM and by 0·66 kg DM kg−1barley plus soybean meal DM when these feeds were offered as supplements. Milk yield and fat concentration were higher on the supplement treatments than on the clover silage-only treatment. In experiments 2 and 3 the intakes of silage and total DM increased as the weight of clover in the diet increased from 0 to 700 g kg−1 with parallel increases in milk yield. The effects on milk composition were small and generally non-significant. Although white clover silages with excellent fermentations were made, it is concluded that the main role of white clover in a silage system will be in mixed swards with grass to reduce the input of fertilizer N and to increase the voluntary intake of silage.

Notes: The existence of high-density, nearly-structureless bedrock buried by relatively low-density sediments makes gravity prospecting a very informative technique for bedrock-topography studies of the northern Appalachian Plateaus. Locating bedrock exposures and using available well data reduces the area of the gravity search. Depths to bedrock from wells correlate excellently with depths from gravity anomalies. The minimum anomaly detected was 0·18 milligal, corresponding to a depth of approximately 40 feet.

Notes: A comparative study was undertaken on the decay rates of three bacterial types (S. typhimurium, E. coli and S. faecalis), an enterovirus (poliovirus type 1) and a bacterial phage (f2) in ground water maintained under laboratory conditions. Except for f2 phage, all the microorganisms tested were relatively stable in ground water. S. faecalis survived best among all the bacteria tested and its decay rate was similar to that of poliovirus type 1.Under field conditions, bacterial indicators were also found to be stable in the ground-water environment. The decay rate for fecal streptococci was lower than for fecal or total coliforms in the shallow wells.

Notes: A technique has been developed for the determination of the exchangeable cation population of calcareous sandy material with cation exchange capacities of less than 1 meq/100 g. The technique involves the addition of exchange salt in the dry state to samples of porous media using original pore water as the exchange salt solvent. In applying this technique to samples from below the water table, the amount of pore water available for reaction is reduced by centrifuging in the field to bring the moisture content close to field capacity values. By utilizing the minimum amount of pore water, interferences during the exchange process due to calcite precipitation or dissolution are minimized. The extent of calcite dissolution or precipitation that occurs can be appraised by measuring alkalinity or total carbon on the pore water before and after addition of the exchange salt. Three salts, NH4C1, CsCl and LiCl were tested for their suitability for this technique. CsCl was found to be preferable because of its low tendency to dissolve carbonate and the preference of Cs+ on exchange sites.Application of the method to a field site in southern Ontario yielded a value of 0.51 ± 0·09 meq/100 g over 15 samples for the cation exchange capacity of a near surface glaciofluvial sand deposit. It is believed that this technique could be applied with reasonable accuracy and reproducibility to materials with exchange capacities of as low as 0·1 meq/100 g.

Notes: The upconing of the salt-water interface in an unconfined coastal aquifer due to water withdrawal by an infiltration gallery is analyzed numerically based on the variational formulation of the problem. Sometimes in coastal areas, from the point of view of safe withdrawal of water on a long-term basis, the use of an infiltration gallery is found to be feasible in preventing severe upconing of the interface that would have resulted from heavy pumpage by a vertical well. The numerical procedure presented here is capable of delineating profiles of the free surface and interface along with the length of the outflow face and quantity of freshwater flow to the sea. Full consideration of the nonlinear boundary conditions on the free surface and interface is included for a steady flow towards a gallery in both isotropic and anisotropic aquifers. The extent of upconing of the interface under different operating conditions of the gallery for different aquifer geometries has been studied. A general understanding of the flow phenomenon in the vicinity of the gallery has been established. The results of the analysis can be used to plan a water withdrawal scheme without causing contamination by salt water.

Notes: The streambed-leakage factor ranged from 0.11 to 1.68 million gallons per day per acre per foot of head loss. Most values for the streambed infiltration rate and the streambed-leakage factor for six tests before 1970 were higher than for six tests in 1976–79, suggesting a change in streambed permeability in the intervening time.A well field to serve a government-owned uranium enrichment facility, consisting initially of 4 wells, later increased to 15 wells, was designed to yield up to 20 million gallons per day. The wells are on a line parallel to the river at distances from the stream ranging from 122 to 330 feet. Distance between wells ranges from 190 to 303 feet. Specific capacities of the wells, based on 24-hour acceptance tests, ranged from 63 to 147 gallons per minute per foot of drawdown and averaged 100 gallons per minute per foot of drawdown. By late Summer of 1976, pumpage from all 15 wells ranged from 12 to 15 million gallons per day. Drawdown was about as expected, based on design criteria developed from the aquifer tests, except that pumping levels were lower than expected in the Fall and Winter of 1976–77, resulting from low streamflow and low river temperature.

Notes: Vast deposits of oil shale are contained in the Piceance basin in northwestern Colorado. The basin may contain as much as 40 million acre-feet of stored water associated with these deposits, much of which may have to be drained for mining. Yet, most analyses of watersupply for oil-shale development have focused on surface water with only brief mention of ground water.This study used a synthetic streamflow model to investigate the effects of using conservative estimates of ground water on the required active storage capacity of a hypothetical reservoir on the White River. Results of the study indicate that use of ground water from mine drainage and/or auxiliary wells may have a significant impact on the size and timing of surface-water reservoirs. Thus, ground water may be an important source of supply, particularly during early development of an oil-shale industry. The study results strongly suggest that further investigations are needed on the physical availability of ground water as well as the institutional, legal and waterquality constraints on its use.

Notes: Egypt is presently involved in a comprehensive program of land reclamation. Surface water has already been exhausted in meeting the urgent needs of agricultural expansion. If irrigation efficiency were increased, large amounts of surface water would be saved. However, this entails complex social, technical and political problems outside the scope of this paper. Ground-water development has priority over increasing irrigation efficiency (which would take a longer time).This paper deals with identification of the intruded salt-water wedge in the huge artesian Delta aquifer. The case is unique because most of this aquifer is invaded by salt water, and the major portion of its annual ground-water recharge is derived from the direct seepage from the Nile River and the huge net of irrigation canals serving about 3 million acres (∼ 11,561 km2) of fertile land, as well as the infiltration of excess irrigation water. The annual overall ground-water recharge to the aquifer was estimated as 6·40 km3/yr as explained later.Methods of salt-water control and various techniques of water resources management are discussed in this paper. Because of the great variation in the depth of the aquifer, two unconventional methods for identifying the salt-water wedge are also presented.

Notes: . Programs are presented for the HP41C and TI59 programmable calculators for determining the ratio of horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivity in anisotropic confined aquifers from pumping test data or for calculating drawdown given the aquifer parameters. The programs, based on Hantush's drawdown equations (1961), eliminate the need to perform triple interpolation in obtaining the drawdown correction factor given in tabular form by Weeks (1969). The programs are illustrated by example.

Notes: A numerical model of flow and transport in the vicinity of Price's Landfill and the Atlantic City public water-supply wells is used to estimate the extent of the existing contamination problem. Model parameters such as boundary conditions, pumping rates, permeability, and dispersivity are varied to demonstrate the sensitivity of the model to these quantities. A historical simulation of the past ten years of contamination is obtained and two schemes for remediation of the contamination problem are compared. In the light of this work, additional data requirements are revealed.

Notes: Ion-exchange high performance liquid chromatography coupled with ultraviolet absorption detection is shown to be a rapid and sensitive method for analysis of some common anions in water. Sensitivity of measurement is approximately 50 ppb for NO−2, NO−3, Br−, I−, and SCN− while Cl− has a detection limit in the one to ten ppm range. Chromatograms require 8 to 13 minutes to complete. Analyses are performed on either of two stationary phases (Whatman SAX 10 μm or Brownlee anion exchange) depending on the anions of interest in the analysis and their interferences.

Notes: Vertical electrical soundings using DC resistivity methods have been completed along over 60 miles of survey lines in southwest Florida. The resistivity soundings were obtained in order to outline major hydrogeologic features as part of a regional hydrogeologic investigation covering approximately 400 square miles. The two significant hydrogeologic features which can be effectively mapped on a regional scale by DC methods are the presence of shallow, high resistivity limestones associated with late Tertiary reef complexes, and the approximate depth to waters with TDS concentrations well above the potable water limits. The reef limestones commonly exhibit very high transmissivities and are potential sites for ground-water development. The approximate thickness of potable waters allows resource investigations to be limited to the most promising areas and a rough assessment of the total resource to be made for long-term planning. The interpretation and mapping of the resistivity section is accomplished through published resistivity inversion and computer graphics programs. This automated data processing produces resistivity maps and sections without requiring extensive geophysical training of the interpreter. The automatic interpretations compare well with more traditional master curve interpretation procedures, and have the same limitations with equivalence of solutions and geologic correlation, but are produced with considerably less effort.

Notes: With an Apple II microcomputer it is possible to rapidly generate and graphically compare theoretical time-drawdown curves with field data from pumping tests in confined aquifers. This technique has the advantage over standard curve-matching methods in that any solution can be tested over the complete range of field data.

Notes: Four formally equivalent response modes were used to elicit laypeople's beliefs regarding the lethality of various potential causes of death. Results showed that respondents had an articulated core of beliefs about lethality that yielded similar orderings of maladies by lethality regardless of the response mode used. Moreover, this subjective ordering was fairly similar to that revealed by public health statistics. However, the absolute estimates of lethality produced by the different response modes varied enormously. Depending upon the mode used, respondents were seen to greatly overestimate or greatly underestimate lethality. The implications of these discrepancies for public education and risk analysis are explored.

Notes: The differences between probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and safety analysis (SA) are discussed, and it is shown that PRA is more suitable than SA for determining the acceptability of a technology. Since a PRA by the fault tree-event tree analysis method used for reactor safety studies does not seem to be practical for buried waste, an alternative approach is suggested using geochemical analogs. This method is illustrated for the cases of high-level and low-level radioactive waste and for chemical carcinogens released in coal burning.

Notes: Public opinion poll data have consistently shown that the proportion of respondents who are willing to have a nuclear power plant in their own community is smaller than the proportion who agree that more nuclear plants should be built in this country. Respondents’ judgments of the minimum safe distance from each of eight hazardous facilities confirmed that this finding results from perceived risk gradients that differ by facility (e.g., nuclear vs. natural gas power plants) and social group (e.g., chemical engineers vs. environmentalists) but are relatively stable over time. Ratings of the facilities on thirteen perceived risk dimensions were used to determine whether any of the dimensions could explain the distance data. Because the rank order of the facilities with respect to acceptable distance was very similar to the rank order on a number of the perceived risk dimensions, it is difficult to determine which of the latter is the critical determinant of acceptable distance if, indeed, there is only one. There were, however, a number of reversals of rank order that indicate that the respondents had a differentiated view of technological risk. Finally, data from this and other studies were interpreted as suggesting that perceived lack of any other form of personal control over risk exposure may be an important factor in stimulating public opposition to the siting of hazardous facilities.

Notes: This paper examines how LP/HC (low-probability/high-consequence) risk analysis is used in planning for locally unwanted land uses, or LULUs. LULUs are development projects that are predictably objectionable to many of their neighbors. Examples are nuclear power plants, hazardous waste facilities, refineries, and airports. The paper begins by elaborating the idea of LULUs, focussing on those whose planning typically requires or invokes some form of LP/HC risk analysis. It then discusses how land planning and planners actually use the LP/HC approach to deal with LULUs. It argues that in practice land-use planners and their associates employ a concept of risk different from that of economists, scientists, and engineers and more like that of political decision-makers and the public at large. It concludes with a political interpretation that offers some suggestions for productively reducing this divergence in the treatment of LULUs that pose LP/HC risks.

Notes: The rapid aging of the U.S. population, increases in the absolute prevalence of chronic diseases, and the associated rise in the proportion of the GNP expended on medical care all indicate the need for methods to accurately forecast future health care expenditures for specific chronic diseases. Additionally, if these methods are biomedically realistic, they can be used to evaluate the economic implications of specific prevention strategies designed to reduce chronic disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality. Projection strategies that are not biomedically realistic, such as models that assume that risks for demographic subgroups do not change over time (e.g., “static component” models), though possibly accurate over the short run, are not suitable for assessing the long term effects of specific proposed health policy interventions which are designed to alter risks.In this paper we present a strategy for forecasting health care costs which is based on a model that represents the natural history of a chronic disease in terms of a preclinical state, a clinical state, case fatality rates, cures, and the implications of exogenous medical factors. Using this model we project that the treatment costs associated with respiratory cancer in the white male population of the U.S. may undergo a two-thirds increase in real dollars over the period 1977 to 2000. About one-half of this increase is due to a demographic shift to an older population structure, with the remainder due to higher respiratory cancer incidence rates in younger cohorts. Alteration of certain parameters of the model to simulate various interventions suggests that about three-quarters of the cost of this disease could be eliminated, though realization of any significant part of this savings would require a lengthy phase-in period.

Notes: This methodology begins by quantifying the fragility of all key components and structures in the plant. By means of the logic encoded in the plant event trees and fault trees, the component fragilities are combined to form fragilities for the occurrence of plant damage states or release categories. Combining these, in turn, with the seismicity curves yields the frequencies of those states or releases. Uncertainty is explicitly included at each step of the process.

Notes: A classical decision problem is considered where a decision maker is to choose one of a number of actions each offering different consequences. The outcome from a choice of action is uncertain because it depends on the existing state of Nature. Also, the outcome, once an action and state of Nature are specified, may be a vector or a random vector. The decision maker employs both Bayesian methods and fuzzy set techniques to handle the uncertainties. The decision maker is also allowed to use multiple, possibly conflicting, goals in order to determine his best strategy. The Bayesian method produces a set of undominated strategies to choose from, whereas the fuzzy set technique usually produces a unique optimal strategy.

Notes: Scientists have long used conventional toxicological methods to establish “safe levels of exposure” for chemicals presumed to have threshold health effects or doses below which significant effects are unlikely to occur. These same methods cannot be used to establish safe levels of exposure for non-threshold pollutants, such as carcinogens. Therefore, Federal regulatory agencies in the United States are using risk assessment methods to provide information for public health policy decisions concerning increases in risk associated with increases in exposure to carcinogenic and other non-threshold pollutants. Acceptable exposure/risk levels are decided by policymakers who consider descriptions and estimates of risks together with social and economic benefits from the uses of the chemical. This paper focuses on the development of quantitative risk assessment approaches by Federal regulatory agencies in the United States, and identifies the mathematical models currently being used for risk extrapolation, including their inherent uncertainties. The uncertainties and limitations of these methods have led some scientists to question the utility of quantitative risk extrapolation. The experience of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), as summarized in this paper, can provide a realistic basis for evaluating the pros and cons. Finally, shortcomings in current risk assessment methods and their use in policy decisions are explored, and areas for possible improvement, given current scientific knowledge, are identified.

Notes: Risk acceptance criteria in the form of limit lines are investigated in the context of prospect theory. This theory departs from utility theory in several respects, an important one being the use of weights other than probabilities in the evaluation of the expected impact of uncertain outcomes. Hypothetical functions reflecting certain attitudes toward consequences and rare events are developed and combined to produce several limit lines.

Notes: In this paper, we argue that risk in a new situation can be calculated by comparison with the most closely analogous previous situation that we can find. In many cases, such as automobile accidents, we argue that this year is analogous to preceding years. With toxic chemicals the analogy is less direct—we compare with other toxic chemicals or with chemicals shown to be toxic in other species. Because the unreliability or uncertainty of the analogy can be high, it is necessary to use less sensitive, but more reliable, methods of estimating risk to prevent continued use of a hazardous material, and subsequent tragedy if the hazard should turn out to be unexpectedly large. This suggests more robust techniques to reduce the regret, or societal cost of being wrong, because increased sensitivity is sometimes attained at the expense of sampling error.

Notes: Analysis of energy-system impacts requires quantifications of short- and long-term local, regional, and global modifications. This paper describes and illustrates an approach for assessing long-term health risks due to dispersion of naturally occurring radionuclide series and chemical toxins by normal and altered landscape-chemical cycles. Health hazards are expressed as dose factors which convert environmental concentrations into a corresponding dose field (organ doses in rad for radionuclides; daily intake for toxic elements). The dose field is translated into a population health risk. The external environment is modelled by considering the manner in which elements are distributed and mobilized within the earth system. The landscape prism is presented as a tool for visualizing and mapping toxic material cycles near the crustal surface. An approach is provided for dividing the landscape into a set of compartments consistent with patterns of element circulation observed in the global environment. We investigate the response of regional landscapes to increases of 238U, 226Ra, arsenic and lead in soil and groundwater. It is found that each decay series or element imposes a hazard by its behavior in the total environment that cannot be quantified by a simple measure of toxicity.

Notes: Many risks have the property that large numbers of people are exposed and have little or no individual control over the risks they face. Dams, nuclear power plants, and recombinant DNA research have proven controversial not simply because there is vast uncertainty about the true level of risk associated with each, but because a fundamental issue is that in each case social risks can be lessened by spending more on safety: dams can be designed to withstand larger earthquakes, nuclear plants can have additional safety equipment, and DNA research could be done in yet more carefully isolated laboratories. Since each person will have preferences regarding the proper trade-off between increased cost and increased safety, there is little possibility of consensus. More importantly, we show that a voting process for expressing individual preferences can be manipulated and is seriously flawed in the sense that it does not lead to an “efficient” outcome. In addition, we show that virtually all people are unhappy with the safety decision, in the sense that each would prefer either a safer or a cheaper outcome. Thus, making safety decisions that affect a large group of people who will not be able to control the outcome is even more difficult than has been appreciated. We suggest some ways of handling some of the difficulties.

Notes: An estimation of the human lung cancer “unit risk” from diesel engine particulate emissions has been made using a comparative potency approach. This approach involves evaluating the tumorigenic and mutagenic potencies of the particulates from four diesel and one gasoline engine in relation to other combustion and pyrolysis products (coke oven, roofing tar, and cigarette smoke) that cause lung cancer in humans. The unit cancer risk is predicated on the linear nonthreshold extrapolation model and is the individual lifetime excess lung cancer risk from continuous exposure to 1 μg carcinogen per m3 inhaled air. The human lung cancer unit risks obtained from the epidemiologic data for coke oven workers, roofing tar applicators, and cigarette smokers were, respectively, 9.3 × 10−4, 3.6 × 10−4, and 2.2 × 10−6 per μg particulate organics per m3 air. The comparative potencies of these three materials and the diesel and gasoline engine exhaust particulates (as organic extracts) were evaluated by in vivo tumorigenicity bioassays involving skin initiation and skin carcinogenicity in SENCAR mice and by the in vitro bioassays that proved suitable for this analysis: Ames Salmonella microsome bioassay, L5178Y mouse lymphoma cell mutagenesis bioassay, and sister chromatid exchange bioassay in Chinese hamster ovary cells. The relative potencies of the coke oven, roofing tar, and cigarette smoke emissions, as determined by the mouse skin initiation assay, were within a factor of 2 of those determined using the epidemiologic data. The relative potencies, from the in vitro bioassays as compared to the human data, were similar for coke oven and roofing tar, but for the cigarette smoke condensate the in vitro tests predicted a higher relative potency. The mouse skin initiation bioassay was used to determine the unit lung cancer risk for the most potent of the diesel emissions. Based on comparisons with coke oven, roofing tar, and cigarette smoke, the unit cancer risk averaged 4.4 × 10−4. The unit lung cancer risks for the other, less potent motor-vehicle emissions were determined from their comparative potencies relative to the most potent diesel using three in vitro bioassays. There was a high correlation between the in vitro and in vivo bioassays in their responses to the engine exhaust particulate extracts. The unit lung cancer risk per μg particulates per m3 for the automotive diesel and gasoline exhaust particulates ranged from 0.20 × 10−4 to 0.60 × 10−4; that for the heavy-duty diesel engine was 0.02 × 10−4. These unit risks provide the basis for a future assessment of human lung cancer risks when combined with human population exposure to automotive emissions.

Notes: In this paper we extend the work reported in prior studies. The conclusion drawn from the aggregate of those studies was that the limitation on liability imposed by the Price–Anderson Act for a catastrophic accident at a nuclear power plant ($560 million) is comparable to de facto limitations on recovery following catastrophic events in many other industries. The analysis in those reports was at a high level of abstraction, comparing almost exclusively the potential loss from high consequence accidents with the current assets of major firms in relevant industries. We found that potential loss exceeded assets.

Notes: The U.S. Office of Science and Technology Policy describes toxic substance regulation as composed of two stages. Stage I (facts) uses empirical data and scientific judgment to characterize human exposure and risk. Stage II (values) uses social and political judgment to decide regulatory action based on significance of the risk, benefits of the agent, and costs of its control. This paper argues that such a view represents an unrealistic and unattainable goal. We present examples showing how values enter virtually every part of risk analysis, and we review work on the vagaries in human judgment concerning both facts and values. These issues indicate that U.S. regulatory policy needs reconsideration.

Notes: In this paper we propose a framework for conducting a decision analysis for a societal problem such as earthquake safety. The application deals with the formulation and evaluation of alternative policies for the seismic safety problem faced by the city of Los Angeles with regard to its old masonry buildings. A social decision analysis compares the costs and benefits of the alternative policies from the viewpoints of the impacted constituents. The emphasis is on identifying acceptable policy that considers the interests of the impacted constituents and provides incentives for their cooperation. Alternatives ranging from strict regulation to free market are examined. In order to evaluate the trade-offs between additional cost and savings in lives, a direct willingness-to-pay and an economic approach, based on property value differential, are used. Recommendations range from strict regulation for the residential and critical buildings (schools, hospitals, fire stations, etc.) to simply informing the occupants (in the case of commercial and industrial buildings) of the risks involved.

Notes: Measures to tighten homes to conserve energy, as are being encouraged and subsidized by federal and state governments, may reduce air infiltration by 20% or more. Standard prudent risk-assessment methodologies predict that, due to increased levels of indoor radon caused by this reduction in ventilation, the added lifetime lung cancer risk to members of the public is of order 200/million people exposed. In situations where the radon source term is unusually high, or extreme reductions in ventilation are made, the added risk can be more than an order of magnitude greater. While these imputed risks are far outside the range that is normally tolerated, no systematic efforts are in progress to mitigate or limit the risk in any way. Furthermore, efforts to determine better the variations in radon source term and the health effects of indoor radon are being deemphasized. The technical background is presented in some detail, and implications with regard to management of risks to the public are discussed.

Notes: Book Reviewed in this article:Risk Analysis of Six Potentially Hazardous Industrial Objects in the Rijnmond Area, A Pilot Study

Notes: The nature of the flora surviving substerilizing irradiation of foods is dependent on the dose applied and the conditions of applications as well as the microenvironment of the food. At a dose level low enough to preserve acceptable sensory properties of fresh food, few if any of the common contaminants of public health significance survive irradiation. Survivors are weakened and present no unique problem of acquired resistance through recycling. Those bacteria surviving a low dose treatment of a relatively contaminated product like ground beef can grow under normal storage conditions and cause obvious sensory spoilage. Thus, low dose irradiation extends the shelf-life of fresh foods and reduces public health hazards, but foods so treated require normal care in production and distribution.

Notes: Two fungi, Boletus edulis and Agaricus bisporus, were tested as substrates for two known aflatoxigenic fungi, Aspergillus flavus ATCC 15548 and A. parasiticus NRRL 2999. Both autoclaved substrates supported mycelial growth, sporulation, and aflatoxin production; however, the B. edulis substrate allowed more rapid mold growth and greater toxin production than did the A. bisporus substrate under laboratory conditions. Both aflatoxins B1 and AFG1 were produced with AFG1 being the predominant toxin. Aflatoxins B2 and AFG2 were not detected. Although toxin was produced at low levels, the highest mean being 0.55 μg/g substrate for AFB1 and AFG1, both mushrooms apparently contained minimal nutrients for toxigenic mold growth and failed to cause antimycotic or antiaflatoxigenic responses. Routinely used aflatoxin extraction and analytical procedures appear applicable for such testing of mushrooms.

Notes: Quercetin and kaempferol were tested for carcinogenicity in rats of both sexes. In Experiment I, 0.1% quercetin or control diet was given to Fischer 344 rats for 540 days. In experiment II, 0.04% kaempferol or control diet was given to ACI rats for 540 days. In both experiments, most tumors found in the experimental groups were also found in the corresponding control groups, and there were no statistical differences in the incidences of tumors in the experimental groups and the respective control groups. Quercetin and kaempferol were not shown to be carcinogenic to rats under these conditions.

Notes: Repeated surveys of a factory producing vegetable sprouts showed that these foods commonly yielded aerobic plate counts of 108/g and coliform counts of 107/g. Most of the microbial growth occurred during the first two days of the germination process. Mung beans germinated in the laboratory in sterilized containers yielded comparable counts indicating that growth of the bean microflora rather than insanitary conditions was responsible. Populations were reduced to a limited extent with germicidal rinses. None of the samples yielded high counts of Bacillus cereus or Staphylococcus aureus and all were negative for salmonellae.

Notes: A principle role of mycotoxins may be in the establishment of fungi in various ecological niches. Mycotoxins may have a multiplicity of functions. They may function as antibiotics, as chemical signalling agents, as mutagenic agents and in other ways. The outcome of ecological competition may have evolutionary and biochemical taxonomic significance.

Notes: The nature of definitions is discussed, and a working definition of “biochemical differentiation” proposed. Using this definition, the sequential and parallel events controlling “biochemical differentiation” in four systems is described, and the similarities to secondary metabolism noted.

Notes: The association between asexual development and aflatoxin production in Aspergillus parasiticus is reviewed. Aflatoxin does not appear to be a product of asexual development. The ability to sporulate and to produce aflatoxin are not mutually exclusive of each other. The environment regulates the asexual development and aflatoxin production. The initial inoculum level will affect the competence time and the time of initiation of aflatoxin production. The time of initiation of aflatoxin production is independent of the initial composition of the medium, in contrast to the onset of sporulation which is dependent on the medium.