ALBERT

Description: Intercomparison of two meteorological limited area models for quantitative precipitation forecast verification Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 591-606, 2012 Author(s): E. Oberto, M. Milelli, F. Pasi, and B. Gozzini The demand for verification of numerical models is still very high, especially for what concerns the operational Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) used, among others, for evaluating the issuing of warnings to the population. In this study, a comparative verification of the QPF, predicted by two operational Limited Area Models (LAMs) for the Italian territory is presented: COSMO-I7 (developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and WRF-NMM (developed at NOAA-NCEP). The observational dataset is the precipitation recorded by the high-resolution non-GTS rain gauges network of the National Civil Protection Department (NCPD) over two years (2007–2008). Observed and forecasted precipitation have been treated as areal quantity (areal average of the values accumulated in 6 and 24 h periods) over the 102 "warning areas", defined by the NCPD both for administrative and hydrological purposes. Statistics are presented through a series of conventional indices (BIAS, POD and POFD) and, in addition, the Extreme Dependency Score (EDS) and the Base Rate (BS or 1-BS) have been used for keeping into account the vanishing of the indices as the events become rare. Results for long-period verification (the whole 2 yr) with increasing thresholds, seasonal trend (3 months period), diurnal error cycle and error maps, are presented. Results indicate that WRF has a general tendency of QPF overestimation for low thresholds and underestimation for higher ones, while COSMO-I7 tends to overestimate for all thresholds. Both models show a seasonal trend, with a bigger overestimation during summer and spring, while during autumn and winter the models tend to be more accurate.

Description: Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere, 6, 255-272, 2012 Author(s): M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB) results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation from a climate model, and parameterizing the meltwater run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation ( H s ). In this study, we propose a new strategy to calculate SMB, to allow a direct adjustment of SMB to a change in ice sheet topography and/or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on elevational gradients in the SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation, using pairs of H s and SMB within a minimum search radius. The continuously adjusting SMB forcing is consistent with climate model forcing fields, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet. When applied to an asynchronous coupled ice sheet – climate model setup, this method circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. Here we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Experiments using both steady-state forcing and glacial-interglacial forcing result in realistic ice sheet reconstructions.

Description: Estimating ice phenology on large northern lakes from AMSR-E: algorithm development and application to Great Bear Lake and Great Slave Lake, Canada The Cryosphere, 6, 235-254, 2012 Author(s): K.-K. Kang, C. R. Duguay, and S. E. L. Howell Time series of brightness temperatures ( T B ) from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) are examined to determine ice phenology variables on the two largest lakes of northern Canada: Great Bear Lake (GBL) and Great Slave Lake (GSL). T B measurements from the 18.7, 23.8, 36.5, and 89.0 GHz channels (H- and V- polarization) are compared to assess their potential for detecting freeze-onset/melt-onset and ice-on/ice-off dates on both lakes. The 18.7 GHz (H-pol) channel is found to be the most suitable for estimating these ice dates as well as the duration of the ice cover and ice-free seasons. A new algorithm is proposed using this channel and applied to map all ice phenology variables on GBL and GSL over seven ice seasons (2002–2009). Analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of each variable at the pixel level reveals that: (1) both freeze-onset and ice-on dates occur on average about one week earlier on GBL than on GSL (Day of Year (DY) 318 and 333 for GBL; DY 328 and 343 for GSL); (2) the freeze-up process or freeze duration (freeze-onset to ice-on) takes a slightly longer amount of time on GBL than on GSL (about 1 week on average); (3) melt-onset and ice-off dates occur on average one week and approximately four weeks later, respectively, on GBL (DY 143 and 183 for GBL; DY 135 and 157 for GSL); (4) the break-up process or melt duration (melt-onset to ice-off) lasts on average about three weeks longer on GBL; and (5) ice cover duration estimated from each individual pixel is on average about three weeks longer on GBL compared to its more southern counterpart, GSL. A comparison of dates for several ice phenology variables derived from other satellite remote sensing products (e.g. NOAA Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS), QuikSCAT, and Canadian Ice Service Database) show that, despite its relatively coarse spatial resolution, AMSR-E 18.7 GHz provides a viable means for monitoring of ice phenology on large northern lakes.

Description: Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979–2010 The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 957-979, 2012 Author(s): D. J. Cavalieri and C. L. Parkinson Analyses of 32 yr (1979–2010) of Arctic sea ice extents and areas derived from satellite passive microwave radiometers are presented for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and for nine Arctic regions. There is an overall negative yearly trend of −51.5 ± 4.1 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−4.1 ± 0.3% decade −1 ) in sea ice extent for the hemisphere. The sea ice extent trends for the individual Arctic regions are all negative except for the Bering Sea: −3.9 ± 1.1 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−8.7 ± 2.5% decade −1 ) for the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan, +0.3 ± 0.8 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (+1.2 ± 2.7% decade −1 ) for the Bering Sea, −4.4 ± 0.7 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−5.1 ± 0.9% decade −1 ) for Hudson Bay, −7.6 ± 1.6 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−8.5 ± 1.8% decade −1 ) for Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea, −0.5 ± 0.3 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−5.9 ± 3.5% decade −1 ) for the Gulf of St. Lawrence, −6.5 ± 1.1 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−8.6 ± 1.5% decade −1 ) for the Greenland Sea, −13.5 ± 2.3 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−9.2 ± 1.6% decade −1 ) for the Kara and Barents Seas, −14.6 ± 2.3 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−2.1 ± 0.3% decade −1 ) for the Arctic Ocean, and −0.9 ± 0.4 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−1.3 ± 0.5% decade −1 ) for the Canadian Archipelago. Similarly, the yearly trends for sea ice areas are all negative except for the Bering Sea. On a seasonal basis for both sea ice extents and areas, the largest negative trend is observed for summer with the next largest negative trend being for autumn.

Description: On teaching styles of water educators and the impact of didactic training Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 2959-2986, 2012 Author(s): A. Pathirana, J. H. Koster, E. de Jong, and S. Uhlenbrook Solving today's complex hydrological problems requires originality, creative thinking and trans-disciplinary approaches. Hydrological education that was traditionally teacher centred, where the students look up to the teacher for expertise and information, should change to better prepare hydrologists to develop new knowledge and apply it in new contexts. An important first step towards this goal is to change the concept of education in the educators' minds. The results of an investigation to find out whether didactic training influences the beliefs of hydrology educators about their teaching styles is presented. Faculty of UNESCO-IHE has been offered a didactic certification program named University Teaching Qualification (UTQ). The hypothesis that UTQ training will significantly alter the teaching style of faculty at UNESCO-IHE from expert/formal authority traits towards facilitator/delegator traits was tested. A first survey was conducted among the entire teaching staff (total 101, response rate 58%). The results indicated that there are significantly higher traits of facilitator and delegator teaching styles among UTQ graduates compared to faculty who were not significantly trained in didactics. The second survey which was conducted among UTQ graduates (total 20, response rate 70%), enquiring after their teaching styles before and after UTQ, corroborated these findings.

Description: Characterization of deep aquifer dynamics using principal component analysis of sequential multilevel data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 761-771, 2012 Author(s): D. Kurtzman, L. Netzer, N. Weisbrod, A. Nasser, E. R. Graber, and D. Ronen Two sequential multilevel profiles were obtained in an observation well opened to a 130-m thick, unconfined, contaminated aquifer in Tel Aviv, Israel. While the general profile characteristics of major ions, trace elements, and volatile organic compounds were maintained in the two sampling campaigns conducted 295 days apart, the vertical locations of high concentration gradients were shifted between the two profiles. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the chemical variables resulted in a first principal component which was responsible for ∼60% of the variability, and was highly correlated with depth. PCA revealed three distinct depth-dependent water bodies in both multilevel profiles, which were found to have shifted vertically between the sampling events. This shift cut across a clayey bed which separated the top and intermediate water bodies in the first profile, and was located entirely within the intermediate water body in the second profile. Continuous electrical conductivity monitoring in a packed-off section of the observation well revealed an event in which a distinct water body flowed through the monitored section ( v ∼ 150 m yr −1 ). It was concluded that the observed changes in the profiles result from dominantly lateral flow of water bodies in the aquifer rather than vertical flow. The significance of this study is twofold: (a) it demonstrates the utility of sequential multilevel observations from deep wells and the efficacy of PCA for evaluating the data; (b) the fact that distinct water bodies of 10 to 100 m vertical and horizontal dimensions flow under contaminated sites, which has implications for monitoring and remediation.

Description: Editorial “Advances in Earth observation for water cycle science” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 543-549, 2012 Author(s): D. Fernández-Prieto, P. van Oevelen, Z. Su, and W. Wagner

Description: River monitoring from satellite radar altimetry in the Zambezi River Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3203-3235, 2012 Author(s): C. I. Michailovsky, S. McEnnis, P. A. M. Berry, R. Smith, and P. Bauer-Gottwein Satellite radar altimetry can be used to monitor surface water levels from space. While current and past altimetry missions were designed to study oceans, retracking the waveforms returned over land allows data to be retrieved for smaller water bodies or narrow rivers. In this study, retracked Envisat altimetry data was extracted over the Zambezi River Basin using a detailed river mask based on Landsat imagery. This allowed for stage measurements to be obtained for rivers down to 80 m wide with an RMSE relative to in situ levels of 0.32 to 0.72 m at different locations. The altimetric levels were then converted to discharge using three different methods adapted to different data-availability scenarios: first with an in situ rating curve available, secondly with one simultaneous field measurement of cross-section and discharge, and finally with only historical discharge data available. For the two locations at which all three methods could be applied the accuracies of the different methods were found to be comparable, with RMSE values ranging from 5.5 to 7.4 % terms of high flow estimation relative to in situ gauge measurements. The precision obtained with the different methods was analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations and also showed comparable values for the three approaches with standard deviations found between 8.2 and 25.8 % of the high flow estimates.

Description: Water management simulation games and the construction of knowledge Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3063-3085, 2012 Author(s): M. Rusca, J. Heun, and K. Schwartz In recent years simulations have become an important part of teaching activities. The reasons behind the popularity of simulation games are twofold. On the one hand, emerging theories on how people learn have called for an experienced-based learning approach. On the other hand, the demand for water management professionals has changed. Three important developments are having considerable consequences for water management programmes, which educate and train these professionals. These developments are the increasing emphasis on integration in water management, the characteristics and speed of reforms in the public sector and the shifting state-society relations in many countries. In response to these developments, demand from the labour market is oriented toward water professionals who need to have both a specialist in-depth knowledge in their own field, as well as the ability to understand and interact with other disciplines and interests. In this context, skills in negotiating, consensus building and working in teams are considered essential for all professionals. In this paper we argue that simulation games have an important role to play in (actively) educating students and training the new generation of water professionals to respond to the above-mentioned challenges. At the same time, simulations are not a panacea for learners and teachers. Challenges of using simulations games include the demands it places on the teacher. Setting up the simulation game, facilitating the delivery and ensuring that learning objectives are achieved requires considerable knowledge and experience as well as considerable time-inputs of the teacher. Moreover, simulation games usually incorporate a case-based learning model, which may neglect or underemphasize theories and conceptualization. For simulations to be effective they have to be embedded in this larger theoretical and conceptual framework. Simulations, therefore, complement rather than substitute traditional teaching methods.

Description: Evaluation of a complementary based model for mapping land surface evapotranspiration Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3029-3062, 2012 Author(s): Z. Sun, Q. Wang, Z. Ouyang, and Y. Yang A modified Priestley-Taylor (P-T) equation was proposed by Venturini et al. (2008) to map actual evapotranspiration (ET) based solely on satellite remote sensing data, involving a parameter based on a scaled temperature between dew point temperature and surface temperature. In this study, however, theoretical analyses and field experimental evidence show that it is hard to obtain this scaled temperature using dew point temperature and surface temperature. This study also presents a new parameterization method using air temperature, surface temperature, and surface temperature of a reference dry surface. The actual ET estimates obtained by means of our proposed parameterization method are validated at a site scale, and a case study is conducted to map actual ET from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer (ASTER) images using our proposed method. Results of ground-based validation and a case study of mapping ET using ASTER images indicate that the improvement on the modified P-T equation proposed by Venturini et al. (2008) can contribute to generating reliable actual ET.

Description: Prioritization of water management under climate change and urbanization using multi-criteria decision making methods Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 801-814, 2012 Author(s): J.-S. Yang, E.-S. Chung, S.-U. Kim, and T.-W. Kim This paper quantifies the transformed effectiveness of alternatives for watershed management caused by climate change and urbanization and prioritizes five options using multi-criteria decision making techniques. The climate change scenarios (A1B and A2) were obtained by using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and the urbanization scenario by surveying the existing urban planning. The flow and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) concentration duration curves were derived, and the numbers of days required to satisfy the environmental flow requirement and the target BOD concentration were counted using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model. In addition, five feasible alternatives were prioritized by using multi-criteria decision making techniques, based on the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework and cost component. Finally, a sensitivity analysis approach for MCDM methods was conducted to reduce the uncertainty of weights. The result indicates that the most sensitive decision criterion is cost, followed by criteria response, driving force, impact, state and pressure in that order. As it is certain that the importance of cost component is over 0.127, construction of a small wastewater treatment plant will be the most preferred alternative in this application.

Description: Precipitation fields interpolated from gauge stations versus a merged radar-gauge precipitation product: influence on modelled soil moisture at local scale and at SMOS scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3385-3413, 2012 Author(s): J. T. dall'Amico, W. Mauser, F. Schlenz, and H. Bach For the validation of coarse resolution soil moisture products from missions such as the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, hydrological modelling of soil moisture is an important tool. The spatial distribution of precipitation is among the most crucial input data for such models. Thus, reliable time series of precipitation fields are required, but these often need to be interpolated from data delivered by scarcely distributed gauge station networks. In this study, a commercial precipitation product derived by Meteomedia AG from merging radar and gauge data is introduced as a novel means of adding the promising area-distributed information given by a radar network to the more accurate, but point-like measurements from a gauge station network. This precipitation product is first validated against an independent gauge station network. Further, the novel precipitation product is assimilated into the hydrological land surface model PROMET for the Upper Danube Catchment in southern Germany, one of the major SMOS calibration and validation sites in Europe. The modelled soil moisture fields are compared to those obtained when the operational interpolation from gauge station data is used to force the model. The results suggest that the assimilation of the novel precipitation product can lead to deviations of modelled soil moisture in the order of 0.15 m 3 m −3 on small spatial (∼1 km 2 ) and short temporal resolutions (∼1 day). As expected, after spatial aggregation to the coarser grid on which SMOS data are delivered (~195 km 2 ), these differences are reduced to the order of 0.04 m 3 m −3 , which is the accuracy benchmark for SMOS. The results of both model runs are compared to brightness temperatures measured by the airborne L-band radiometer EMIRAD during the SMOS Validation Campaign 2010. Both comparisons yield equally good correlations, confirming the model's ability to realistically model soil moisture fields in the test site. The fact that the two model runs perform similarly in the comparison is likely associated with the lack of substantial rain events before the days on which EMIRAD was flown.

Description: An integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation approach for improved operational streamflow predictions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 815-831, 2012 Author(s): M. He, T. S. Hogue, S. A. Margulis, and K. J. Franz The current study proposes an integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation framework (ICEA) and evaluates its viability in providing operational streamflow predictions via assimilating snow water equivalent (SWE) data. This step-wise framework applies a parameter uncertainty analysis algorithm (ISURF) to identify the uncertainty structure of sensitive model parameters, which is subsequently formulated into an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to generate updated snow states for streamflow prediction. The framework is coupled to the US National Weather Service (NWS) snow and rainfall-runoff models. Its applicability is demonstrated for an operational basin of a western River Forecast Center (RFC) of the NWS. Performance of the framework is evaluated against existing operational baseline (RFC predictions), the stand-alone ISURF and the stand-alone EnKF. Results indicate that the ensemble-mean prediction of ICEA considerably outperforms predictions from the other three scenarios investigated, particularly in the context of predicting high flows (top 5th percentile). The ICEA streamflow ensemble predictions capture the variability of the observed streamflow well, however the ensemble is not wide enough to consistently contain the range of streamflow observations in the study basin. Our findings indicate that the ICEA has the potential to supplement the current operational (deterministic) forecasting method in terms of providing improved single-valued (e.g., ensemble mean) streamflow predictions as well as meaningful ensemble predictions.

Description: Advancing data assimilation in operational hydrologic forecasting: progresses, challenges, and emerging opportunities Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3415-3472, 2012 Author(s): Y. Liu, A. H. Weerts, M. Clark, H.-J. Hendricks Franssen, S. Kumar, H. Moradkhani, D.-J. Seo, D. Schwanenberg, P. Smith, A. I. J. M. van Dijk, N. van Velzen, M. He, H. Lee, S. J. Noh, O. Rakovec, and P. Restrepo Data assimilation (DA) holds considerable potential for improving hydrologic predictions as demonstrated in numerous research studies. However, advances in hydrologic DA research have not been adequately or timely implemented into operational forecast systems to improve the skill of forecasts to better inform real-world decision making. This is due in part to a lack of mechanisms to properly quantify the uncertainty in observations and forecast models in real-time forecasting situations and to conduct the merging of data and models in a way that is adequately efficient and transparent to operational forecasters. The need for effective DA of useful hydrologic data into the forecast process has become increasingly recognized in recent years. This motivated a hydrologic DA workshop in Delft, The Netherlands in November 2010, which focused on advancing DA in operational hydrologic forecasting and water resources management. As an outcome of the workshop, this paper reviews, in relevant detail, the current status of DA applications in both hydrologic research and operational practices, and discusses the existing or potential hurdles and challenges in transitioning hydrologic DA research into cost-effective operational forecasting tools, as well as the potential pathways and newly emerging opportunities for overcoming these challenges. Several related aspects are discussed, including (1) theoretical or mathematical considerations in DA algorithms, (2) the estimation of different types of uncertainty, (3) new observations and their objective use in hydrologic DA, (4) the use of DA for real-time control of water resources systems, and (5) the development of community-based, generic DA tools for hydrologic applications. It is recommended that cost-effective transition of hydrologic DA from research to operations should be helped by developing community-based, generic modelling and DA tools or frameworks, and through fostering collaborative efforts among hydrologic modellers, DA developers, and operational forecasters.

Description: Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Nam Ou Basin, Lao PDR Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3339-3384, 2012 Author(s): B. Shrestha, M. S. Babel, S. Maskey, A. van Griensven, S. Uhlenbrook, A. Green, and I. Akkharath This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou Basin located in Northern Laos. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Future precipitation and temperature series are constructed through a delta change approach. As per the results, in general, temperature as well as precipitation show increasing trends in both scenarios, A2 and B2. However, monthly precipitation shows both increasing and decreasing trends. The simulation results exhibit that the wet and dry seasonal and annual stream discharges are likely to increase (by up to 15, 17 and 14% under scenario A2; and 11, 5 and 10% under scenario B2 respectively) in the future, which will lead to increased wet and dry seasonal and annual sediment yields (by up to 39, 28 and 36% under scenario A2; and 23, 12 and 22% under scenario B2 respectively). A higher discharge and more sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the changes, percentage-wise, are observed to be higher during the dry months. In conclusion, the sediment yield from the Nam Ou Basin is likely to increase with climate change, which strongly suggests the need for basin-wide sediment management strategies in order to reduce the negative impact of this change.

Description: Correcting the radar rainfall forcing of a hydrological model with data assimilation: application to flood forecasting in the Lez Catchment in Southern France Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3527-3579, 2012 Author(s): E. Harader, V. Borrell Estupina, S. Ricci, M. Coustau, O. Thual, A. Piacentini, and C. Bouvier The present study explores the application of a data assimilation (DA) procedure to correct the radar rainfall inputs of an event-based, distributed, parsimonious hydrological model. A simplified Kalman filter algorithm was built on top of a rainfall-runoff model in order to assimilate discharge observations at the catchment outlet. The study site is the 114 km 2 Lez Catchment near Montpellier, France. This catchment is subject to heavy orographic rainfall and characterized by a karstic geology, leading to flash flooding events. The hydrological model uses a derived version of the SCS method, combined with a Lag and Route transfer function. Because it depends on geographical features and cloud structures, the radar rainfall input to the model is particularily uncertain and results in significant errors in the simulated discharges. The DA analysis was applied to estimate a constant correction to each event hyetogram. The analysis was carried out for 19 events, in two different modes: re-analysis and pseudo-forecast. In both cases, it was shown that the reduction of the uncertainty in the rainfall data leads to a reduction of the error in the simulated discharge. The resulting correction of the radar rainfall data was then compared to the mean field bias (MFB), a corrective coefficient determined using ground rainfall measurements, which are more accurate than radar but have a decreased spatial resolution. It was shown that the radar rainfall corrected using DA leads to improved discharge simulations and Nash criteria compared to the MFB correction.

Description: Numerical modelling of climate change impacts on freshwater lenses on the North Sea Island of Borkum Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3473-3525, 2012 Author(s): H. Sulzbacher, H. Wiederhold, B. Siemon, M. Grinat, J. Igel, T. Burschil, T. Günther, and K. Hinsby A numerical variable-density groundwater model is set up for the North Sea Island of Borkum to estimate climate change impacts on coastal aquifers and especially the situation of barrier islands in the Wadden Sea. The database includes information from boreholes, a seismic survey, a helicopter-borne electromagnetic survey (HEM), monitoring of the freshwater-saltwater boundary by vertical electrode chains in two boreholes, measurements of groundwater table, pumping and slug tests, as well as water samples. Based on a statistical analysis of borehole columns, seismic sections and HEM, a hydrogeological model is set up. The groundwater model is developed using the finite-element programme FEFLOW. The variable-density groundwater model is calibrated on the basis of hydraulic, hydrological and geophysical data, in particular spatial HEM and local monitoring data. Verification runs with the calibrated model show good agreement between measured and computed hydraulic heads. A good agreement is also obtained between measured and computed density or total dissolved solids data for both the entire freshwater lens on a large scale and in the area of the well fields on a small scale. For simulating future changes in this coastal groundwater system until the end of the current century we use the climate scenario A2, specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in particular the data for the German North Sea coast. Simulation runs show proceeding salinization with time beneath the well fields of the two waterworks Waterdelle and Ostland. The modelling study shows that spreading of well fields is an appropriate protection measure against excessive salinization of the water supply until the end of the current century.

Description: Ikaite crystals in melting sea ice – implications for p CO 2 and pH levels in Arctic surface waters The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 1015-1035, 2012 Author(s): S. Rysgaard, R. N. Glud, K. Lennert, M. Cooper, N. Halden, R. J. G. Leakey, F. C. Hawthorne, and D. Barber A major issue of Arctic marine science is to understand whether the Arctic Ocean is, or will be, a source or sink for air-sea CO 2 exchange. This has been complicated by the recent discoveries of ikaite (CaCO 3 ·6H 2 O) in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, which indicate that multiple chemical transformations occur in sea ice with a possible effect on CO 2 and pH conditions in surface waters. Here we report on biogeochemical conditions, microscopic examinations and x-ray diffraction analysis of single crystals from an actively melting 1.7 km 2 (0.5–1 m thick) drifting ice floe in the Fram Strait during summer. Our findings show that ikaite crystals are present throughout the sea ice but with larger crystals appearing in the upper ice layers. Ikaite crystals placed at elevated temperatures gradually disintegrated into smaller crystallites and dissolved. During our field campaign in late June, melt reduced the ice flow thickness by ca. 0.2 m per week and resulted in an estimated 1.6 ppm decrease of p CO 2 in the ocean surface mixed layer. This corresponds to an air-sea CO 2 uptake of 11 mmol m −2 sea ice d −1 or to 3.5 ton km −2 ice floe week −1 .

Description: Accounting for seasonality in a soil moisture change detection algorithm for ASAR Wide Swath time series Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 773-786, 2012 Author(s): J. Van doninck, J. Peters, H. Lievens, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest A change detection algorithm is applied on a three year time series of ASAR Wide Swath images in VV polarization over Calabria, Italy, in order to derive information on temporal soil moisture dynamics. The algorithm, adapted from an algorithm originally developed for ERS scatterometer, was validated using a simple hydrological model incorporating meteorological and pedological data. Strong positive correlations between modelled soil moisture and ASAR soil moisture were observed over arable land, while the correlation became much weaker over more vegetated areas. In a second phase, an attempt was made to incorporate seasonality in the different model parameters. It was observed that seasonally changing surface properties mainly affected the multitemporal incidence angle normalization. When applying a seasonal angular normalization, correlation coefficients between modelled soil moisture and retrieved soil moisture increased overall. Attempts to account for seasonality in the other model parameters did not result in an improved performance.

Description: Rockfall hazard and risk assessments along roads at a regional scale: example in Swiss Alps Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 615-629, 2012 Author(s): C. Michoud, M.-H. Derron, P. Horton, M. Jaboyedoff, F.-J. Baillifard, A. Loye, P. Nicolet, A. Pedrazzini, and A. Queyrel Unlike fragmental rockfall runout assessments, there are only few robust methods to quantify rock-mass-failure susceptibilities at regional scale. A detailed slope angle analysis of recent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to detect potential rockfall source areas, thanks to the Slope Angle Distribution procedure. However, this method does not provide any information on block-release frequencies inside identified areas. The present paper adds to the Slope Angle Distribution of cliffs unit its normalized cumulative distribution function. This improvement is assimilated to a quantitative weighting of slope angles, introducing rock-mass-failure susceptibilities inside rockfall source areas previously detected. Then rockfall runout assessment is performed using the GIS- and process-based software Flow-R, providing relative frequencies for runout. Thus, taking into consideration both susceptibility results, this approach can be used to establish, after calibration, hazard and risk maps at regional scale. As an example, a risk analysis of vehicle traffic exposed to rockfalls is performed along the main roads of the Swiss alpine valley of Bagnes.

Description: Evolution of skewness and kurtosis of weakly nonlinear unidirectional waves over a sloping bottom Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 631-638, 2012 Author(s): H. Zeng and K. Trulsen We consider the effect of slowly varying depth on the values of skewness and kurtosis of weakly nonlinear irregular waves propagating from deeper to shallower water. It is known that the equilibrium value of kurtosis decreases with decreasing depth for waves propagating on constant depth. Waves propagating over a sloping bottom must continually adjust toward a new equilibrium state. We demonstrate that weakly nonlinear waves may need a considerable horizontal propagation distance in order to adjust to a new shallower environment, therefore the kurtosis can be notably different from the equilibrium value for each corresponding depth both on top of and beyond a bottom slope. A change of depth can provoke a wake-like spatially non-uniform distribution of kurtosis on the lee side of the slope. As an application, we anticipate that the probability of freak waves on or near the edge of the continental shelf may exhibit a rather complicated spatial structure for wave fields entering from deep sea.

Description: Corrigendum to "Impact of rainfall spatial distribution on rainfall-runoff modelling efficiency and initial soil moisture conditions estimation" published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 157–170, 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 267-267, 2012 Author(s): Y. Tramblay, C. Bouvier, P.-A. Ayral, and A. Marchandise No abstract available.

Description: Physically-based modeling of topographic effects on spatial evapotranspiration and soil moisture patterns through radiation and wind Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 357-373, 2012 Author(s): M. Liu, A. Bárdossy, J. Li, and Y. Jiang In this paper, simulations with the Soil Water Atmosphere Plant (SWAP) model are performed to quantify the spatial variability of both potential and actual evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture content (SMC) caused by topography-induced spatial wind and radiation differences. To obtain the spatially distributed ET/SMC patterns, the field scale SWAP model is applied in a distributed way for both pointwise and catchment wide simulations. An adapted radiation model from r.sun and the physically-based meso-scale wind model METRAS PC are applied to obtain the spatial radiation and wind patterns respectively, which show significant spatial variation and correlation with aspect and elevation respectively. Such topographic dependences and spatial variations further propagate to ET/SMC. A strong spatial, seasonal-dependent, scale-relevant intra-catchment variability in daily/annual ET and less variability in SMC can be observed from the numerical experiments. The study concludes that topography has a significant effect on ET/SMC in the humid region where ET is a energy limited rather than water availability limited process. It affects the spatial runoff generation through spatial radiation and wind, therefore should be applied to inform hydrological model development. In addition, the methodology used in the study can serve as a general method for physically-based ET estimation for data sparse regions.

Description: The importance of parameter resampling for soil moisture data assimilation into hydrologic models using the particle filter Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 375-390, 2012 Author(s): D. A. Plaza, R. De Keyser, G. J. M. De Lannoy, L. Giustarini, P. Matgen, and V. R. N. Pauwels The Sequential Importance Sampling with Resampling (SISR) particle filter and the SISR with parameter resampling particle filter (SISR-PR) are evaluated for their performance in soil moisture assimilation and the consequent effect on baseflow generation. With respect to the resulting soil moisture time series, both filters perform appropriately. However, the SISR filter has a negative effect on the baseflow due to inconsistency between the parameter values and the states after the assimilation. In order to overcome this inconsistency, parameter resampling is applied along with the SISR filter, to obtain consistent parameter values with the analyzed soil moisture state. Extreme parameter replication, which could lead to a particle collapse, is avoided by the perturbation of the parameters with white noise. Both the modeled soil moisture and baseflow are improved if the complementary parameter resampling is applied. The SISR filter with parameter resampling offers an efficient way to deal with biased observations. The robustness of the methodology is evaluated for 3 model parameter sets and 3 assimilation frequencies. Overall, the results in this paper indicate that the particle filter is a promising tool for hydrologic modeling purposes, but that an additional parameter resampling may be necessary to consistently update all state variables and fluxes within the model.

Description: Evolution of marine storminess in the Belgian part of the North Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 305-312, 2012 Author(s): D. Van den Eynde, R. De Sutter, and P. Haerens Severe storms have affected European coast lines in the past but knowledge on changes in storminess for the last decades is still sparse. Climate change is assumed to be a main driving factor with the potential to induce changes on the intensity, duration and frequency of powerful marine storms, including a long-term influence on peak wind speeds, surges and waves. It is, therefore, important to investigate whether in the last decades changes in the magnitude of storms, their duration and frequency could be observed. Understanding trends in storminess in the last decades will help to better prepare coastal managers for future events, taking into account potential changes on storm occurrence and magnitude to improve planning of mitigation and adaptation strategies. The purpose of this study was to focus on the evolution of extreme wind conditions, wave height and storm surge levels in the North Sea Region, especially in the Belgian part of the North Sea (BPNS). Based on the analysis performed it is concluded that no clear trend can be observed for the occurrence of significant increasing extreme wind speeds over the BPNS. Furthermore, one can conclude that not enough scientific evidence is available to support scenarios with increased wave height or storminess.

Description: Inferring snow pack ripening and melt out from distributed ground surface temperature measurements The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 563-591, 2012 Author(s): M.-O. Schmid, S. Gubler, J. Fiddes, and S. Gruber The seasonal snow cover and its melting are heterogeneous both in space and time. Describing and modelling this variability are important because it affects divers phenomena such as runoff, ground temperatures or slope movements. This study investigates the derivation of melting characteristics based on spatial clusters of temperature measurements. Results are based on data from Switzerland where ground surface temperatures were measured with miniature loggers (iButtons) at 40 locations, referred to as footprints. At each footprint, ten iButtons have been distributed randomly few cm below the ground surface over an area of 10 m × 10 m. Footprints span elevations of 2100–3300 m a.s.l. and slope angles of 0–55°, as well as diverse slope expositions and types of surface cover and ground material. Based on two years of temperature data, the basal ripening date and the melt-out date are determined for each iButton, aggregated to the footprint level and further analysed. The date of melt out could be derived for nearly all iButtons, the ripening date could be extracted for only approximately half of them because it requires ground freezing below the snow pack. The variability within a footprint is often considerable and one to three weeks difference between melting or ripening of the points in one footprint is not uncommon. The correlation of mean annual ground surface temperatures, ripening date and melt-out date is moderate, making them useful intuitive complementary measured for model evaluation.

Description: Moving beyond traditional model calibration or how to better identify realistic model parameters: sub-period calibration Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 1885-1918, 2012 Author(s): S. Gharari, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, and H. H. G. Savenije Conceptual hydrological models often rely on calibration for the identification of their parameters. As these models are typically designed to reflect real catchment processes, a key objective of an appropriate calibration strategy is the determination of parameter sets that reflect a "realistic" model behavior. Previous studies have shown that parameter estimates for different calibration periods can be significantly different. This questions model transposability in time, which is one of the key conditions for the set-up of a "realistic" model. This paper presents a new approach that selects parameter sets that provide a consistent model performance in time. The approach consists of confronting model performance in different periods, and selecting parameter sets that are as close as possible to the optimum of each individual sub-period. While aiding model calibration, the approach is also useful as a diagnostic tool, illustrating tradeoffs in the identification of time consistent parameter sets. The approach is demonstrated in a case study where we illustrate the multi-objective calibration of the HyMod hydrological model to a Luxembourgish catchment.

Description: Technical Note: Analytical sensitivity analysis of a two parameter recursive digital baseflow separation filter Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 451-455, 2012 Author(s): K. Eckhardt A sensitivity analysis for a well-established baseflow separation technique, a two parameter recursive digital filter, is presented. The sensitivity of the calculated baseflow index to errors or uncertainties of the two filter parameters and of the initial baseflow value is analytically ascertained. It is found that the influence of the initial baseflow value is negligible for long time series. The propagation of errors or uncertainties of the two filter parameters into the baseflow index is expressed by a dimensionless sensitivity index, the ratio between the relative error of the baseflow index and the relative error of the respective parameter. Representative index values are derived by application of the resulting equations to 65 North American catchments. In the mean the parameter a , the recession constant, has a stronger influence on the calculated baseflow index than the second filter parameter BFI max . This is favourable in that a can be determined by a recession analysis and therefore should be less uncertain. Whether this finding also applies for a specific catchment can easily be checked by means of the derived equations.

Description: The 2007 flood in the Sahel: causes, characteristics and its presentation in the media and FEWS NET Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 313-325, 2012 Author(s): C. Samimi, A. H. Fink, and H. Paeth During the rainy season in 2007, reports about exceptional rains and floodings in the Sahel were published in the media, especially in August and September. Institutions and organizations like the World Food Programme (WFP) and FEWS NET put the events on the agenda and released alerts and requested help. The partly controversial picture was that most of the Sahel faced a crisis caused by widespread floodings. Our study shows that the rainy season in 2007 was exceptional with regard to rainfall amount and return periods. In many areas the event had a return period between 1 and 50 yr with high spatial heterogeneity, with the exception of the Upper Volta basin, which yielded return periods of up to 1200 yr. Despite the strong rainfall, the interpretation of satellite images show that the floods were mainly confined to lakes and river beds. However, the study also proves the difficulties in assessing the meteorological processes and the demarcation of flooded areas in satellite images without ground truthing. These facts and the somewhat vague and controversial reports in the media and FEWS NET demonstrate that it is crucial to thoroughly analyze such events at a regional and local scale involving the local population.

Description: Factors selection in landslide susceptibility modelling on large scale following the gis matrix method: application to the river Beiro basin (Spain) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 327-340, 2012 Author(s): D. Costanzo, E. Rotigliano, C. Irigaray, J. D. Jiménez-Perálvarez, and J. Chacón A procedure to select the controlling factors connected to the slope instability has been defined. It allowed us to assess the landslide susceptibility in the Rio Beiro basin (about 10 km 2 ) over the northeastern area of the city of Granada (Spain). Field and remote (Google EarthTM) recognition techniques allowed us to generate a landslide inventory consisting in 127 phenomena. To discriminate between stable and unstable conditions, a diagnostic area had been chosen as the one limited to the crown and the toe of the scarp of the landslide. 15 controlling or determining factors have been defined considering topographic, geologic, geomorphologic and pedologic available data. Univariate tests, using both association coefficients and validation results of single-variable susceptibility models, allowed us to select the best predictors, which were combined for the unique conditions analysis. For each of the five recognised landslide typologies, susceptibility maps for the best models were prepared. In order to verify both the goodness of fit and the prediction skill of the susceptibility models, two different validation procedures were applied and compared. Both procedures are based on a random partition of the landslide archive for producing a test and a training subset. The first method is based on the analysis of the shape of the success and prediction rate curves, which are quantitatively analysed exploiting two morphometric indexes. The second method is based on the analysis of the degree of fit, by considering the relative error between the intersected target landslides by each of the different susceptibility classes in which the study area was partitioned. Both the validation procedures confirmed a very good predictive performance of the susceptibility models and of the actual procedure followed to select the controlling factors.

Description: Impact of spatial resolution on the modelling of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance between 1990–2010, using the regional climate model MAR The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 635-672, 2012 Author(s): B. Franco, X. Fettweis, C. Lang, and M. Erpicum With the aim to force an ice dynamical model, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) was modelled at different spatial resolutions (15–50 km) for the period 1990–2010, using the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) forced by the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis. This comparison revealed that (i) the inter-annual variability of the SMB components is consistent within the different spatial resolutions investigated, (ii) the MAR model simulates heavier precipitation on average over the GrIS with diminishing spatial resolution, and (iii) the SMB components (except precipitation) can be derived from a simulation at lower resolution with an ''intelligent'' interpolation. This interpolation can also be used to approximate the SMB components over another topography/ice sheet mask of the GrIS. These results are important for the forcing of an ice dynamical model, needed to enable future projections of the GrIS contribution to sea level rise over the coming centuries.

Description: Large surface meltwater discharge from the Kangerlussuaq sector of the Greenland ice sheet during the record-warm year 2010 explained by detailed energy balance observations The Cryosphere, 6, 199-209, 2012 Author(s): D. van As, A. L. Hubbard, B. Hasholt, A. B. Mikkelsen, M. R. van den Broeke, and R. S. Fausto This study uses data from six on-ice weather stations, calibrated MODIS-derived albedo and proglacial river gauging measurements to drive and validate an energy balance model. We aim to quantify the record-setting positive temperature anomaly in 2010 and its effect on mass balance and runoff from the Kangerlussuaq sector of the Greenland ice sheet. In 2010, the average temperature was 4.9 °C (2.7 standard deviations) above the 1974–2010 average in Kangerlussuaq. High temperatures were also observed over the ice sheet, with the magnitude of the positive anomaly increasing with altitude, particularly in August. Simultaneously, surface albedo was anomalously low in 2010, predominantly in the upper ablation zone. The low albedo was caused by high ablation, which in turn profited from high temperatures and low winter snowfall. Surface energy balance calculations show that the largest melt excess (∼170%) occurred in the upper ablation zone (above 1000 m), where higher temperatures and lower albedo contributed equally to the melt anomaly. At lower elevations the melt excess can be attributed to high atmospheric temperatures alone. In total, we calculate that 6.6 ± 1.0 km 3 of surface meltwater ran off the ice sheet in the Kangerlussuaq catchment in 2010, exceeding the reference year 2009 (based on atmospheric temperature measurements) by ∼150%. During future warm episodes we can expect a melt response of at least the same magnitude, unless a larger wintertime snow accumulation delays and moderates the melt-albedo feedback. Due to the hypsometry of the ice sheet, yielding an increasing surface area with elevation, meltwater runoff will be further amplified by increases in melt forcings such as atmospheric heat.

Description: Investigating riparian groundwater flow close to a losing river using diurnal temperature oscillations at high vertical resolution Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 473-487, 2012 Author(s): T. Vogt, M. Schirmer, and O. A. Cirpka River-water infiltration is of high relevance for hyporheic and riparian groundwater ecology as well as for drinking water supply by river-bank filtration. Heat has become a popular natural tracer to estimate exchange rates between rivers and groundwater. However, quantifying flow patterns and velocities is impeded by spatial and temporal variations of exchange fluxes, insufficient sensors spacing during field investigations, or simplifying assumptions for analysis or modeling such as uniform flow. The objective of this study is to investigate lateral shallow groundwater flow upon river-water infiltration at the shoreline of the riverbed and in the adjacent riparian zone of the River Thur in northeast Switzerland. Here we have applied distributed temperature sensing (DTS) along optical fibers wrapped around tubes to measure high-resolution vertical temperature profiles of the unsaturated zone and shallow riparian groundwater. Diurnal temperature oscillations were tracked in the subsurface and analyzed by means of dynamic harmonic regression to extract amplitudes and phase angles. Subsequent calculations of amplitude attenuation and time shift relative to the river signal show in detail vertical and temporal variations of heat transport in shallow riparian groundwater. In addition, we apply a numerical two-dimensional heat transport model for the unsaturated zone and shallow groundwater to obtain a better understanding of the observed heat transport processes in shallow riparian groundwater and to estimate the groundwater flow velocity. Our results show that the observed riparian groundwater temperature distribution cannot be described by uniform flow, but rather by horizontal groundwater flow velocities varying over depth. In addition, heat transfer of diurnal temperature oscillations from the losing river through shallow groundwater is influenced by thermal exchange with the unsaturated zone. Neglecting the influence of the unsaturated zone would cause biased interpretation and underestimation of groundwater flow velocities. The combination of high resolution field data and modeling shows the complex hydraulic and thermal processes occurring in shallow riparian groundwater close to losing river sections as well as potential errors sources for interpreting diurnal temperature oscillations in such environments.

Description: Impacts of inhomogeneous landscapes in oasis interior on the oasis self-maintaining mechanism by integrating numerical model with satellite data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 1979-2004, 2012 Author(s): X. Meng, S. Lu, T. Zhang, Y. Ao, S. Li, Y. Bao, L. Wen, and S. Luo Mesoscale meteorological modeling is an important tool to help understand the energy budget of the oasis. While basic dynamic and thermodynamic processes for oasis self-maintaining in the desert environment is well investigated, influence of heterogeneous landscapes of oasis interior on the processes are still important and remain to be investigated. In this study, two simulations are designed for investigating the influence of inhomogeneity. In the first case, land surface parameters including land-use types, vegetation cover fraction, and surface layer soil moisture are derived by satellite remote sensing data from EOS/MODIS, and then be used specify the respective options in the MM5 model, to describe a real inhomogeneity for the oasis interior. In the other run, land use types are set to MM5 default, in which landscapes in the oasis interior is relative uniform, and then surface layer soil moisture and vegetation fraction is set to be averages of the first case for the respective oasis and desert surface lying, to represent a relative homogeneity. Results show that the inhomogeneity leads to a weaker oasis "cold-wet island" effect and a stronger turbulence over the oasis interior, both of which will reduce the oasis-desert secondary circulation and increase the evaporation over the oasis, resulting in a negative impact on the oasis self-protecting mechanism. The simulation of homogeneity indicates that the oasis may be more stable even with relative lower soil moisture if landscapes in the oasis interior are comparatively uniform.

Description: Uncertainty in future solid ice discharge from Antarctica The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 673-714, 2012 Author(s): R. Winkelmann, A. Levermann, K. Frieler, and M. A. Martin Future solid ice discharge from Antarctica under climate scenarios based on the Extended Concentration Pathways is investigated with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), a shallow model with a consistent representation of the ice flow in sheet, shelves and the transition zone. Both the uncertainty in the climate forcing as well as the intra-model uncertainty are combined into a probability distribution for solid ice discharge from Antarctica until the year 2500 under the ECP scenarios: All simulations are performed for a 81-member perturbed-physics ensemble and the likely ranges of surface and ocean warming under the emission pathways derived from the results of 20 CMIP3-AOGCMS. The effects of surface warming, ocean warming and increased precipitation on solid ice discharge are separately considered. We find that solid ice discharge caused by enhanced sub-shelf melting exceeds that caused by surface warming. Increasing precipitation leads to a change from net sea-level rise to sea-level drop. Our results suggest that the history of the ice-sheet plays an important role with respect to projections of solid ice discharge. Although all climate-change-forced simulations begin with the year 1850, the ice discharge around 2000 is significantly smaller than observed. Observed changes in ice discharge are reached around 2077 under the ECP-8.5 scenario. During the subsequent century, ice discharge reaches up to 0.24 m.

Description: Floodwater utilisation values of wetland services – a case study in Northeastern China Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 341-349, 2012 Author(s): S. B. Lü, S. G. Xu, and F. Feng Water plays a significant role in wetlands. Floodwater utilisation in wetlands brings a wide range of wetland services, from goods production and water regulation to animal protection and aesthetics related to water supply in wetlands. In this study, the floodwater utilisation values of wetland services were estimated within the Momoge wetland and Xianghai wetland in western Jilin province of northeastern China. From 2003 to 2008, the floodwater diverted from the Nenjiang and Tao'er River is 381 million m 3 , which translates into a monetary value of approximately 1.35 billion RMB in 2008 (RMB: Chinese Currency, RMB 6.80 = US$ 1), and the ratio of economic value, eco-environmental value, and social value is 1:12:2. Besides the monetary value of the water itself, excessive floodwater utilisation may bring losses to wetlands; the threshold floodwater utilisation volumes in wetlands are discussed. Floodwater utilisation can alleviate water shortages in wetlands, and the evaluation of floodwater utilisation in wetland services in monetary terms is a guide for the effective use of the floodwater resources and for the conservation of wetlands.

Description: The Lumen Gini Coefficient: a satellite imagery derived human development index Social Geography Discussions, 8, 27-59, 2012 Author(s): C. D. Elvidge, K. E. Baugh, S. J. Anderson, P. C. Sutton, and T. Ghosh The "Lumen Gini Coefficient" is a simple, objective, spatially explicit and globally available empirical measurement of human development derived solely from nighttime satellite imagery and population density. There is increasing recognition that the distribution of wealth and income amongst the population in a nation or region correlates strongly with both the overall happiness of that population and the environmental quality of that nation or region. Measuring the distribution of wealth and income at national and regional scales is an interesting and challenging problem. Gini coefficients derived from Lorenz curves are a well-established method of measuring income distribution. Nonetheless, there are many shortcomings of the Gini coefficient as a measure of income or wealth distribution. Gini coefficients are typically calculated using national level data on the distribution of income through the population. Such data are not available for many countries and the results are generally limited to single values representing entire countries. In this paper we develop an alternative measure of the distribution of "human development", called the "Lumen Gini coefficient", that is derived without the use of monetary measures of wealth and is capable of providing a spatial depiction of differences in development within countries.

Description: Hydrogeology and hydrogeochemistry of an alkaline volcanic area: the NE Mt. Meru slope (East African Rift – Northern Tanzania) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 529-541, 2012 Author(s): G. Ghiglieri, D. Pittalis, G. Cerri, and G. Oggiano The objective of this study is to analyze the geochemical conditions associated with the presence of fluoride (F − ) in the groundwater of an area of Northern Tanzania. The studied aquifers are composed of volcanic rocks such as phonolitic and nephelinitic lavas, basalts, lahars of various ages and mantling ash. Sedimentary rocks consisting of fine-grained alluvial and lacustrine deposits occur as well. Samples collected from springs, borehole and surface water, during two monitoring surveys, were analyzed for the various physico-chemical and isotopic parameters. The geochemical composition of water is typically sodium bicarbonate. High values of F − (up to 68 mg l −1 ) were recorded. The highest values of fluoride agreed with the highest values of pH, sodium and bicarbonate. Dissolution of major ions, exchange processes and precipitation of Ca 2+ from super-saturated solutions joined with the local permeability and hydraulic gradients, control the fluoride mobilization and the contamination of the area.

Description: Calibration and evaluation of a semi-distributed watershed model of sub-Saharan Africa using GRACE data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 2071-2120, 2012 Author(s): H. Xie, L. Longuevergne, C. Ringler, and B. Scanlon Irrigation development is rapidly expanding in mostly rainfed Sub-Saharan Africa. This expansion underscores the need for a more comprehensive understanding of water resources beyond surface water. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites provide valuable information on spatio-temporal variability of water storage. The objective of this study was to calibrate and evaluate a semi-distributed regional-scale hydrological model, or a large-scale application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, for basins in Sub-Saharan Africa using seven-year (2002–2009) 10-day GRACE data. Multi-site river discharge data were used as well, and the analysis was conducted in a multi-criteria framework. In spite of the uncertainty arising from the tradeoff in optimizing model parameters with respect to two non-commensurable criteria defined for two fluxes, it is concluded that SWAT can perform well in simulating total water storage variability in most areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, which have semi-arid and sub-humid climates, and that among various water storages represented in SWAT, the water storage variations from soil, the vadose zone, and groundwater are dominant. On the other hand, the study also showed that the simulated total water storage variations tend to have less agreement with the GRACE data in arid and equatorial humid regions, and the model-based partition of total water storage variations into different water storage compartments could be highly uncertain. Thus, future work will be needed for model enhancement in these areas with inferior model fit and for uncertainty reduction in component-wise estimation of water storage variations.

Description: Estimation of soil redistribution rates due to snow cover related processes in a mountainous area (Valle d'Aosta, NW Italy) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 517-528, 2012 Author(s): E. Ceaglio, K. Meusburger, M. Freppaz, E. Zanini, and C. Alewell Mountain areas are widely affected by soil erosion, which is generally linked to runoff processes occurring in the growing season and snowmelt period. Also processes like snow gliding and full-depth snow avalanches may be important factors that can enhance soil erosion, however the role and importance of snow movements as agents of soil redistribution are not well understood yet. The aim of this study was to provide information on the relative importance of snow related processes in comparison to runoff processes. In the study area, which is an avalanche path characterized by intense snow movements, soil redistribution rates were quantified with two methods: (i) by field measurements of sediment yield in an avalanche deposition area during 2009 and 2010 winter seasons; (ii) by caesium-137 method, which supplies the cumulative net soil loss/gain since 1986, including all the soil erosion processes. The snow related soil accumulation estimated with data from the deposit area (27.5 Mg ha −1 event −1 and 161.0 Mg ha −1 event −1 ) was not only higher than the yearly sediment amounts, reported in literature, due to runoff processes, but it was even more intense than the yearly total deposition rate assessed with 137 Cs (12.6 Mg ha −1 yr −1 ). The snow related soil erosion rates estimated from the sediment yield at the avalanche deposit area (3.7 Mg ha −1 and 20.8 Mg ha −1 ) were greater than the erosion rates reported in literature and related to runoff processes; they were comparable to the yearly total erosion rates assessed with the 137 Cs method (13.4 Mg ha −1 yr −1 and 8.8 Mg ha −1 yr −1 ). The 137 Cs method also showed that, where the ground avalanche does not release, the erosion and deposition of soil particles from the upper part of the basin was considerable and likely related to snow gliding. Even though the comparison of both the approaches is linked to high methodological uncertainties, mainly due to the different spatial and temporal scales considered, we still can deduce, from the similarity of the erosion rates, that soil redistribution in this catchment is driven by snow movement, with a greater impact in comparison to the runoff processes occurring in the snow-free season. Nonetheless, the study highlights that soil erosion processes due to the snow movements should be considered in the assessment of soil vulnerability in mountain areas, as they significantly determine the pattern of soil redistribution.

Description: Development of an operational coastal flooding early warning system Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 379-390, 2012 Author(s): D.-J. Doong, L. Z.-H. Chuang, L.-C. Wu, Y.-M. Fan, C. C. Kao, and J.-H. Wang Coastal floods are a consistent threat to oceanfront countries, causing major human suffering and substantial economic losses. Climate change is exacerbating the problem. An early warning system is essential to mitigate the loss of life and property from coastal flooding. The purpose of this study is to develop a coastal flooding early warning system (CoFEWs) by integrating existing sea-state monitoring technology, numerical ocean forecasting models, historical database and experiences, as well as computer science. The proposed system has capability of offering data for the past, information for the present and future. The system was developed for the Taiwanese coast due to its frequent threat by typhoons. An operational system without any manual work is the basic requirement of the system. Integration of various data sources is the system kernel. Numerical ocean models play an important role within the system because they provide data for assessment of possible flooding. The regional wave model (SWAN) that nested with the large domain wave model (NWW III) is operationally set up for coastal wave forecasting, in addition to the storm surge predicted by a POM model. Data assimilation technology is incorporated for enhanced accuracy. A warning signal is presented when the storm water level that accumulated from astronomical tide, storm surge, and wave-induced run-up exceeds the alarm sea level. This warning system has been in practical use for coastal flooding damage mitigation in Taiwan for years. An example of the system operation during the Typhoon Haitung which struck Taiwan in 2005 is illustrated in this study.

Description: Snow specific surface area simulation using the one-layer snow model in the Canadian LAnd Surface Scheme (CLASS) The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 5255-5289, 2012 Author(s): A. Roy, A. Royer, B. Montpetit, P. A. Bartlett, and A. Langlois Snow grain size is a key parameter for modeling microwave snow emission properties and the surface energy balance because of its influence on the snow albedo, thermal conductivity and diffusivity. A model of the specific surface area (SSA) of snow was implemented in the one-layer snow model in the Canadian LAnd Surface Scheme (CLASS) version 3.4. This offline multilayer model (CLASS-SSA) simulates the decrease of SSA based on snow age, snow temperature and the temperature gradient under dry snow conditions, whereas it considers the liquid water content for wet snow metamorphism. We compare the model with ground-based measurements from several sites (alpine, Arctic and sub-Arctic) with different types of snow. The model provides simulated SSA in good agreement with measurements with an overall point-to-point comparison RMSE of 8.1 m 2 kg −1 , and a RMSE of 4.9 m 2 kg −1 for the snowpack average SSA. The model, however, is limited under wet conditions due to the single-layer nature of the CLASS model, leading to a single liquid water content value for the whole snowpack. The SSA simulations are of great interest for satellite passive microwave brightness temperature assimilations, snow mass balance retrievals and surface energy balance calculations with associated climate feedbacks.

Description: Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 13773-13803, 2012 Author(s): B. Orlowsky and S. I. Seneviratne Recent years have seen a number of severe droughts in different regions around the world, causing agricultural and economic losses, famines and migration. Despite their devastating consequences, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) of these events lies within the range of internal climate variability, which we estimate from simulations from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In terms of drought magnitude, regional trends of SPI over the last decades remain mostly inconclusive in observations and CMIP5 simulations, although Soil Moisture Anomalies (SMAs) in CMIP5 simulations hint at increased drought in a few regions (e.g. the Mediterranean, Central America/Mexico, the Amazon, North-East Brazil and South Africa). Also for the future, projections of meteorological (SPI) and agricultural (SMA) drought in CMIP5 display large uncertainties over all time frames, generally impeding trend detection. Analogue analyses of the frequencies rather than magnitudes of future drought display, however, more robust signal-to-noise ratios with detectable trends towards more frequent drought until the end of the 21st century in the Mediterranean, South Africa and Central America/Mexico. Other present-day hot spots are projected to become less drought-prone, or to display unsignificant changes in drought occurrence. A separation of different sources of uncertainty in drought projections reveals that for the near term, internal climate variability is the dominant source, while the formulation of Global Climate Models (GCMs) generally becomes the dominant source of uncertainty by the end of the 21st century, especially for agricultural (soil moisture) drought. In comparison, the uncertainty in Green-House Gas (GHG) concentrations scenarios is negligible for most regions. These findings stand in contrast to respective analyses for a heat wave indicator, for which GHG concentrations scenarios constitute the main source of uncertainty. Our results highlight the inherent difficulty of drought quantification and the uncertainty of drought projections. However, high uncertainty should not be equated with low drought risk, since potential scenarios include large drought increases in key agricultural and ecosystem regions.

Description: Simulation of hydrological processes in the Zhalong Wetland within a river basin, Northeast China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 14035-14063, 2012 Author(s): X. Q. Feng, G. X. Zhang, and Y. Jun Xu Zhalong National Nature Preserve is a large wetland reserve on the Songnen Plain in Northeast China. Wetlands in the preserve play a key role in maintaining regional ecosystem function and integrity. Global climate change and intensified anthropogenic activities in the region have raised great concerns over the change of natural flow regime, wetland degradation and losses. In this study, two key hydrologic components in the preserve, open water area and storage, as well as their variations during the period 1985–2006 were investigated with a spatially-distributed hydrologic modeling system, SWAT. A wetland module was incorporated into the SWAT model to represent hydrological linkages between the wetland and adjacent upland areas. The modified modeling system was calibrated with streamflow measurements from 1987 to 1989, in a Nash efficiency coefficient ( E ns ) of 0.86, and was validated for the period 2005–2006, in an E ns of 0.66. In the past 20 yr, open water area in the Zhalong Wetland fluctuated from approximately 200 km 2 to 1145 km 2 with a rapid decreasing trend through the early 2000s. Consequently, open water storage in the preserve decreased largely, especially in the dry seasons. The situation changed following the implementation of a river diversion in 2001. Overall, the modeling yielded plausible estimates of hydrologic changes in this large wetland reserve, building a foundation for assessing ecological water requirements and developing strategies and plans for water resources management within the river basin.

Description: Net accumulation rates derived from ice core stable isotope records of Pío XI glacier, Southern Patagonia Icefield The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 5291-5316, 2012 Author(s): M. Schwikowski, M. Schläppi, P. Santibañez, A. Rivera, and G. Casassa Pío XI, the largest glacier of the Southern Patagonia Icefield, reached its neoglacial maximum extent in 1994 and is one of the few glaciers in that area which is not retreating. In view of the recent warming it is important to understand glacier responses to climate changes. Due to its remoteness and the harsh conditions in Patagonia, no systematic mass balance studies have been performed. In this study we derived net accumulation rates for the period 2000 to 2006 from a 50 m (33.2 4 m weq) ice core collected in the accumulation area of Pío XI (2600 m a.s.l., 49°16´40´´ S, 73°21´14´´ W). Borehole temperatures indicate near temperate ice, but the average melt percent is only 16% ± 14%. Records of stable isotopes are well preserved and were used for identification of annual layers. Net accumulation rates range from 3.4 to 7.1 water equivalent (m weq) with an average of 5.8 m weq, comparable to precipitation amounts at the Chilean coast, but not as high as expected for the Icefield. Ice core stable isotope data correlate well with upper air temperatures and may be used as temperature proxy.

Description: Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3719-3732, 2012 Author(s): L. Mediero, L. Garrote, and A. Chavez-Jimenez Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

Description: On the use of spring baseflow recession for a more accurate parameterization of aquifer transit time distribution functions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 14109-14128, 2012 Author(s): J. Farlin and P. Maloszewski Baseflow recession analysis and groundwater dating have up to now developed as two distinct branches of hydrogeology and were used to solve entirely different problems. We show that by combining two classical models, namely Boussinesq's Equation describing spring baseflow recession and the exponential piston-flow model used in groundwater dating studies, the parameters describing the transit time distribution of an aquifer can be in some cases estimated to a far more accurate degree than with the latter alone. Under the assumption that the aquifer basis is sub-horizontal, the mean residence time of water in the saturated zone can be estimated from spring baseflow recession. This provides an independent estimate of groundwater residence time that can refine those obtained from tritium measurements. This approach is demonstrated in a case study predicting atrazine concentration trend in a series of springs draining the fractured-rock aquifer known as the Luxembourg Sandstone. A transport model calibrated on tritium measurements alone predicted different times to trend reversal following the nationwide ban on atrazine in 2005 with different rates of decrease. For some of the springs, the best agreement between observed and predicted time of trend reversal was reached for the model calibrated using both tritium measurements and the recession of spring discharge during the dry season. The agreement between predicted and observed values was however poorer for the springs displaying the most gentle recessions, possibly indicating the stronger influence of continuous groundwater recharge during the dry period.

Description: Development of a method of robust rain gauge network optimization based on intensity-duration-frequency results Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 14205-14230, 2012 Author(s): A. Chebbi, Z. K. Bargaoui, and M. da Conceição Cunha Based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, a robust optimization approach is proposed to identify the best locations to install new rain gauges. The advantage of robust optimization is that the resulting design solutions yield networks which behave acceptably under hydrological variability. Robust optimisation can overcome the problem of selecting representative rainfall events when building the optimization process. This paper reports an original approach based on Montana IDF model parameters. The latter are assumed to be geostatistical variables and their spatial interdependence is taken into account through the adoption of cross-variograms in the kriging process. The problem of optimally locating a fixed number of new monitoring stations based on an existing rain gauge network is addressed. The objective function is based on the mean spatial kriging variance and rainfall variogram structure using a variance-reduction method. Hydrological variability was taken into account by considering and implementing several return periods to define the robust objective function. Variance minimization is performed using a simulated annealing algorithm. In addition, knowledge of the time horizon is needed for the computation of the robust objective function. A short and a long term horizon were studied, and optimal networks are identified for each. The method developed is applied to north Tunisia (area = 21 000 km 2 ). Data inputs for the variogram analysis were IDF curves provided by the hydrological bureau and available for 14 tipping bucket type rain gauges. The recording period was from 1962 to 2001, depending on the station. The study concerns an imaginary network augmentation based on the network configuration in 1973, which is a very significant year in Tunisia because there was an exceptional regional flood event in March 1973. This network consisted of 13 stations and did not meet World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommendations for the minimum spatial density. So, it is proposed to virtually augment it by 25, 50, 100 and 160% which is the rate that would meet WMO requirements. Results suggest that for a given augmentation robust networks remain stable overall for the two time horizons.

Description: Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility by means of a subsurface flow path connectivity index and estimates of soil depth spatial distribution Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3959-3971, 2012 Author(s): C. Lanni, M. Borga, R. Rigon, and P. Tarolli Topographic index-based hydrological models have gained wide use to describe the hydrological control on the triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the catchment scale. A common assumption in these models is that a spatially continuous water table occurs simultaneously across the catchment. However, during a rainfall event isolated patches of subsurface saturation form above an impeding layer and their hydrological connectivity is a necessary condition for lateral flow initiation at a point on the hillslope. Here, a new hydrological model is presented, which allows us to account for the concept of hydrological connectivity while keeping the simplicity of the topographic index approach. A dynamic topographic index is used to describe the transient lateral flow that is established at a hillslope element when the rainfall amount exceeds a threshold value allowing for (a) development of a perched water table above an impeding layer, and (b) hydrological connectivity between the hillslope element and its own upslope contributing area. A spatially variable soil depth is the main control of hydrological connectivity in the model. The hydrological model is coupled with the infinite slope stability model and with a scaling model for the rainfall frequency–duration relationship to determine the return period of the critical rainfall needed to cause instability on three catchments located in the Italian Alps, where a survey of soil depth spatial distribution is available. The model is compared with a quasi-dynamic model in which the dynamic nature of the hydrological connectivity is neglected. The results show a better performance of the new model in predicting observed shallow landslides, implying that soil depth spatial variability and connectivity bear a significant control on shallow landsliding.

Description: Technical Note: An open source library for processing weather radar data ( wradlib ) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 12333-12356, 2012 Author(s): M. Heistermann, S. Jacobi, and T. Pfaff The potential of weather radar observations for hydrological and meteorological research and applications is undisputed, particularly with increasing world-wide radar coverage. However, several barriers impede the use of weather radar data. These barriers are of both scientific and technical nature. The former refers to inherent measurement errors and artefacts, the latter to aspects such as reading specific data formats, geo-referencing, visualisation. The radar processing library wradlib is intended to lower these barriers by providing a free and open source tool for the most important steps in processing weather radar data for hydro-meteorological and hydrological applications. Moreover, the community-based development approach of wradlib allows scientists to share their knowledge about efficient processing algorithms and to make this knowledge available to the weather radar community in a transparent, structured and well-documented way.

Description: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 12293-12332, 2012 Author(s): L. Alfieri, P. Burek, E. Dutra, B. Krzeminski, D. Muraro, J. Thielen, and F. Pappenberger Anticipation and preparedness for large-scale flood events have a key role in mitigating their impact and optimizing the strategic planning of water resources. Although several developed countries have well-established systems for river monitoring and flood early warning, figures of population affected every year by floods in developing countries are unsettling. This paper presents the Global Flood Awareness System, which has been set up to provide an overview on upcoming floods in large world river basins. The Global Flood Awareness System is based on distributed hydrological simulation of numerical ensemble weather predictions with global coverage. Streamflow forecasts are compared statistically to climatological simulations to detect probabilistic exceedance of warning thresholds. In this article, the system setup is described, together with an evaluation of its performance over a two-year test period and a qualitative analysis of a case study for the Pakistan flood, in summer 2010. It is shown that hazardous events in large river basins can be skilfully detected with a forecast horizon of up to 1 month. In addition, results suggest that an accurate simulation of initial model conditions and an improved parameterization of the hydrological model are key components to reproduce accurately the streamflow variability in the many different runoff regimes of the Earth.

Description: Acoustic and seismic imaging of the Adra Fault (NE Alboran Sea): in search of the source of the 1910 Adra earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3255-3267, 2012 Author(s): E. Gràcia, R. Bartolome, C. Lo Iacono, X. Moreno, D. Stich, J. J. Martínez-Diaz, G. Bozzano, S. Martínez-Loriente, H. Perea, S. Diez, E. Masana, J. J. Dañobeitia, O. Tello, J. L. Sanz, E. Carreño, and EVENT-SHELF Team Recently acquired swath-bathymetry data and high-resolution seismic reflection profiles offshore Adra (Almería, Spain) reveal the surficial expression of a NW–SE trending 20 km-long fault, which we termed the Adra Fault. Seismic imaging across the structure depicts a sub-vertical fault reaching the seafloor surface and slightly dipping to the NE showing an along-axis structural variability. Our new data suggest normal displacement of the uppermost units with probably a lateral component. Radiocarbon dating of a gravity core located in the area indicates that seafloor sediments are of Holocene age, suggesting present-day tectonic activity. The NE Alboran Sea area is characterized by significant low-magnitude earthquakes and by historical records of moderate magnitude, such as the M w = 6.1 1910 Adra Earthquake. The location, dimension and kinematics of the Adra Fault agree with the fault solution and magnitude of the 1910 Adra Earthquake, whose moment tensor analysis indicates normal-dextral motion. The fault seismic parameters indicate that the Adra Fault is a potential source of large magnitude ( M w ≤ 6.5) earthquakes, which represents an unreported seismic hazard for the neighbouring coastal areas.

Description: IR spectral analysis for the diagnostics of crust earthquake precursors Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3269-3274, 2012 Author(s): R. M. Umarkhodgaev, V. A. Liperovsky, V. V. Mikhailin, V. V. Bogdanov, C.-V. Meister, and E. V. Liperovskaya Some possible physical processes are analysed that cause, under the condition of additional ionisation in a pre-breakdown electric field, emissions in the infrared (IR) interval. The atmospheric transparency region of the IR spectrum at wavelengths of 7–15 μm is taken into account. This transparency region corresponds to spectral lines of small atmospheric constituents like CH 4 , CO 2 , N 2 O, NO 2 , NO, and O 3 . The possible intensities of the IR emissions observable in laboratories and in nature are estimated. The acceleration process of the electrons in the pre-breakdown electrical field before its adhesion to the molecules is analyzed. For daytime conditions, modifications of the adsorption spectra of the scattered solar emissions are studied; for nighttime, variations of emission spectra may be used for the analysis.

Description: Hydrologic system complexity and nonlinear dynamic concepts for a catchment classification framework Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4119-4131, 2012 Author(s): B. Sivakumar and V. P. Singh The absence of a generic modeling framework in hydrology has long been recognized. With our current practice of developing more and more complex models for specific individual situations, there is an increasing emphasis and urgency on this issue. There have been some attempts to provide guidelines for a catchment classification framework, but research in this area is still in a state of infancy. To move forward on this classification framework, identification of an appropriate basis and development of a suitable methodology for its representation are vital. The present study argues that hydrologic system complexity is an appropriate basis for this classification framework and nonlinear dynamic concepts constitute a suitable methodology. The study employs a popular nonlinear dynamic method for identification of the level of complexity of streamflow and for its classification. The correlation dimension method, which has its base on data reconstruction and nearest neighbor concepts, is applied to monthly streamflow time series from a large network of 117 gaging stations across 11 states in the western United States (US). The dimensionality of the time series forms the basis for identification of system complexity and, accordingly, streamflows are classified into four major categories: low-dimensional, medium-dimensional, high-dimensional, and unidentifiable. The dimension estimates show some "homogeneity" in flow complexity within certain regions of the western US, but there are also strong exceptions.

Description: Flood discharge measurement of mountain rivers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 12655-12690, 2012 Author(s): Y.-C. Chen An efficient method that accounts for personal safety, accuracy and reliability for measuring flood discharge of mountain rivers is proposed. It is composed of new measurement method, tools, and techniques. Measuring flood discharge from mountain rivers by using conventional method is costly, time-consuming, and dangerous. Thus previous discharge measurements for mountainous areas were typically based on estimated precipitation, which alone cannot generate accurate measurements. This study applies a novel flood discharge measurement system composed of an Acoustic Doppler Profiler and crane system to accurately and quickly measure velocity distributions and water depths. Moreover a novel and efficient method for measuring discharge, which is based on the relationship between mean and maximum velocities and the relationship between cross-sectional area and gauge height is applied to estimate flood discharge. Flood discharge from mountain rivers can be estimated easily and rapidly by measuring maximum velocity in the river crosssection and the gauge height. The measured flood discharges can be utilized to create a reliable stage-discharge relationship for continuous estimations of discharge using records of water stage. The proposed method was applied to the Nanshih River, Taiwan. Results of measured discharges and estimated discharges only slightly differed from each other, demonstrating the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Description: New climate change scenarios reveal uncertain future for Central Asian glaciers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 12691-12727, 2012 Author(s): A. F. Lutz, W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, and M. F. P. Bierkens Central Asian water resources largely depend on (glacier) melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges, located in the basins of the Amu and Syr Darya rivers, important life lines in Central Asia and the prominent water source of the Aral Sea. To estimate future water availability in the region, it is thus necessary to project the future glacier extent and volume in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The latest climate change projections provided by the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) generated for the upcoming fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are used to model future glacier extent in the Central Asian region for the two large river basins. The outcomes are compared to model results obtained with the climate change projections used for the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). We use a regionalized glacier mass balance model to estimate changes in glacier extent as a function of glacier size and projections of temperature and precipitation. The model is developed for implementation in (large scale) hydrological models, when the spatial model resolution does not allow for modelling of individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 model simulations point towards a strong decline in glacier extent in Central Asia. However, compared to the CMIP3 projections, the CMIP5 projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia provide a wider range of outcomes, mostly owing to greater variability in precipitation projections among the latest suite of climate models. These findings have great impact on projections of the timing and quantity of water availability in glacier melt dominated rivers in the region. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier extent and downstream water availability uncertain.

Description: A general treatment of snow microstructure exemplified by an improved relation for the thermal conductivity The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4673-4693, 2012 Author(s): H. Löwe, F. Riche, and M. Schneebeli Finding relevant microstructural parameters beyond the density is a longstanding problem which hinders the formulation of accurate parametrizations of physical properties of snow. Towards a remedy we address the effective thermal conductivity tensor of snow via known anisotropic, second-order bounds. The bound provides an explicit expression for the thermal conductivity and predicts the relevance of a microstructural anisotropy parameter Q which is given by an integral over the two-point correlation function and unambiguously defined for arbitrary snow structures. For validation we compiled a comprehensive data set of 167 snow samples. The set comprises individual samples of various snow types and entire time series of metamorphism experiments under isothermal and temperature gradient conditions. All samples were digitally reconstructed by micro-computed tomography to perform microstructure-based simulations of heat transport. The incorporation of anisotropy via Q considerably reduces the root mean square error over the usual density-based parametrization. The systematic quantification of anisotropy via the two-point correlation function suggests a generalizable route to incorporate microstructure into snowpack models. We indicate the inter-relation of the conductivity to other properties and outline a potential impact of Q on dielectric constant, permeability and adsorption rate of diffusing species in the pore space.

Description: Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models The Cryosphere, 6, 1275-1294, 2012 Author(s): J. G. L. Rae, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, J. M. Gregory, H. T. Hewitt, J. A. Lowe, P. Lucas-Picher, R. H. Mottram, A. J. Payne, J. K. Ridley, S. R. Shannon, W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, and M. R. van den Broeke Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution general circulation models (GCMs). This is the first time an intercomparison has been carried out of RCM results for Greenland climate and SMB. Output from RCM simulations for the recent past with the four RCMs is evaluated against available observations. The evaluation highlights the importance of using a detailed snow physics scheme, especially regarding the representations of albedo and meltwater refreezing. Simulations with three of the RCMs for the 21st century using SRES scenario A1B from two GCMs produce trends of between −5.5 and −1.1 Gt yr −2 in SMB (equivalent to +0.015 and +0.003 mm sea level equivalent yr −2 ), with trends of smaller magnitude for scenario E1, in which emissions are mitigated. Results from one of the RCMs whose present-day simulation is most realistic indicate that an annual mean near-surface air temperature increase over Greenland of ~ 2°C would be required for the mass loss to increase such that it exceeds accumulation, thereby causing the SMB to become negative, which has been suggested as a threshold beyond which the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated.

Description: Basin-wide water accounting using remote sensing data: the case of transboundary Indus Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 12921-12958, 2012 Author(s): P. Karimi, W. G. M. Bastiaanssen, D. Molden, and M. J. M. Cheema The paper describes the application of a new Water Accounting Plus (WA+) framework to produce spatial information on water flows, sinks, uses, storages and assets, in the Indus Basin, South Asia. It demonstrates how satellite-derived estimates of land use, land cover, rainfall, evaporation ( E ), transpiration ( T ), interception ( I ) and biomass production can be used in the context of WA+. The results for one selected year showed that total annual water depletion in the basin (502 km 3 ) plus outflows (21 km 3 ) exceeded total precipitation (482 km 3 ). The deficit in supply was augmented through abstractions beyond actual capacity, mainly from groundwater storage (30 km 3 ). The "landscape ET" (depletion directly from rainfall) was 344 km 3 (69% of total consumption). "Blue water" depletion ("utilized flow") was 158 km 3 (31%). Agriculture was the biggest water consumer and accounted for 59% of the total depletion (297 km 3 ), of which 85% (254 km 3 ) was through irrigated agriculture and the remaining 15% (44 km 3 ) through rainfed systems. While the estimated basin irrigation efficiency was 0.84, due to excessive evaporative losses in agricultural areas, half of all water consumption in the basin was non-beneficial. Average rainfed crop yields were 0.9 t ha −1 and 7.8 t ha −1 for two irrigated crop growing seasons combined. Water productivity was low due to a lack of proper agronomical practices and poor farm water management. The paper concludes that the opportunity for a food-secured and sustainable future for the Indus Basin lies in focusing on reducing soil evaporation. Results of future scenario analyses suggest that by implementing techniques to convert soil evaporation to crop transpiration will not only increase production but can also result in significant water savings that would ease the pressure on the fast declining storage.

Description: Water Accounting Plus (WA+) – a water accounting procedure for complex river basins based on satellite measurements Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 12879-12919, 2012 Author(s): P. Karimi, W. G. M. Bastiaanssen, and D. Molden Coping with the issue of water scarcity and growing competition for water among different sectors requires proper water management strategies and decision processes. A pre-requisite is a clear understanding of the basin hydrological processes, manageable and unmanageable water flows, the interaction with land use and opportunities to mitigate the negative effects and increase the benefits of water depletion on society. Currently, water professionals do not have a common framework that links hydrological flows to user groups of water and their benefits. The absence of a standard hydrological and water management summary is causing confusion and wrong decisions. The non-availability of water flow data is one of the underpinning reasons for not having operational water accounting systems for river basins in place. In this paper we introduce Water Accounting Plus (WA+), which is a new framework designed to provide explicit spatial information on water depletion and net withdrawal processes in complex river basins. The influence of land use on the water cycle is described explicitly by defining land use groups with common characteristics. Analogous to financial accounting, WA+ presents four sheets including (i) a resource base sheet , (ii) a consumption sheet , (iii) a productivity sheet , and (iv) a withdrawal sheet . Every sheet encompasses a set of indicators that summarize the overall water resources situation. The impact of external (e.g. climate change) and internal influences (e.g. infrastructure building) can be estimated by studying the changes in these WA+ indicators. Satellite measurements can be used for 3 out of the 4 sheets, but is not a precondition for implementing WA+ framework. Data from hydrological models and water allocation models can also be used as inputs to WA+.

Description: Multi-variable evaluation of hydrological model predictions for a headwater basin in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 12825-12877, 2012 Author(s): X. Fang, J. W. Pomeroy, C. R. Ellis, M. K. MacDonald, C. M. DeBeer, and T. Brown One of the purposes of the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) is to diagnose inadequacies in the understanding of the hydrological cycle and its simulation. A physically based hydrological model including a full suite of snow and cold regions hydrology processes as well as warm season, hillslope and groundwater hydrology was developed in CRHM for application in the Marmot Creek Research Basin (~ 9.4km 2 ), located in the Front Ranges of Canadian Rocky Mountains. Parameters were selected from digital elevation model, forest, soil and geological maps, and from the results of many cold regions hydrology studies in the region and elsewhere. Non-calibrated simulations were conducted for six hydrological years during 2005–2011 and were compared with detailed field observations of several hydrological cycle components. Results showed good model performance for snow accumulation and snowmelt compared to the field observations for four seasons during 2007–2011, with a small bias and normalized root mean square difference (NRMSD) ranging from 40 to 42% for the subalpine conifer forests and from 31 to 67% for the alpine tundra and tree-line larch forest environments. Overestimation or underestimation of the peak SWE ranged from 1.6 to 29%. Simulations matched well with the observed unfrozen moisture fluctuation in the top soil layer at a lodgepole pine site during 2006–2011, with a NRMSD ranging from 17% to 39%, but with consistent overestimation of 7 to 34%. Evaluations of seasonal streamflow during 2006–2011 revealed the model generally predicted well compared to observations at the basin scale, with a NRMSD of 77% and small model bias (6%), but at the sub-basin scale NRMSD were larger, ranging from 86 to 106%; though overestimation or underestimation for the cumulative seasonal discharge was within 24%. Timing of discharge was better predicted at the Marmot Creek basin outlet having a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.31 compared to the outlets of the sub-basins where NSE ranged from −0.03 to −0.76. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient of 0.12 and 0.17 for comparisons between the simulated groundwater storage and observed groundwater level fluctuation at two wells indicate weak but positive correlations. The model results are encouraging for uncalibrated prediction and indicate research priorities to improve simulations of snow accumulation at treeline, groundwater dynamics and small-scale runoff generation processes in this environment. The study shows that improved hydrological cycle model prediction can be derived from improved hydrological understanding and therefore is a model that can be applied for prediction in ungauged basins.

Description: Is bias correction of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations possible for non-stationary conditions? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 12765-12795, 2012 Author(s): C. Teutschbein and J. Seibert In hydrological climate-change impact studies, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are commonly used to transfer large-scale Global Climate Model (GCM) data to smaller scales and to provide more detailed regional information. However, there are often considerable biases in RCM simulations, which have led to the development of a number of bias correction approaches to provide more realistic climate simulations for impact studies. Bias correction procedures rely on the assumption that RCM biases do not change over time, because correction algorithms and their parameterizations are derived for current climate conditions and assumed to apply also for future climate conditions. This underlying assumption of bias stationarity is the main concern when using bias correction procedures. It is in principle not possible to test whether this assumption is actually fulfilled for future climate conditions. In this study, however, we demonstrate that it is possible to evaluate how well bias correction methods perform for conditions different from those used for calibration. For five Swedish catchments, several time series of RCM simulated precipitation and temperature were obtained from the ENSEMBLES data base and different commonly-used bias correction methods were applied. We then performed a differential split-sample test by dividing the data series into cold and warm respective dry and wet years. This enabled us to evaluate the performance of different bias correction procedures under systematically varying climate conditions. The differential split-sample test resulted in a large spread and a clear bias for some of the correction methods during validation years. More advanced correction methods such as distribution mapping performed relatively well even in the validation period, whereas simpler approaches resulted in the largest deviations and least reliable corrections for changed conditions. Therefore, we question the use of simple bias correction methods such as the widely used delta-change approach and linear scaling for RCM-based climate-change impact studies and recommend using higher-skill bias correction methods.

Description: Estimation of debris flow critical rainfall thresholds by a physically-based model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 12797-12824, 2012 Author(s): M. N. Papa, V. Medina, F. Ciervo, and A. Bateman Real time assessment of debris flow hazard is fundamental for setting up warning systems that can mitigate its risk. A convenient method to assess the possible occurrence of a debris flow is the comparison of measured and forecasted rainfall with rainfall threshold curves (RTC). Empirical derivation of the RTC from the analysis of rainfall characteristics of past events is not possible when the database of observed debris flows is poor or when the environment changes with time. For landslides triggered debris flows, the above limitations may be overcome through the methodology here presented, based on the derivation of RTC from a physically based model. The critical RTC are derived from mathematical and numerical simulations based on the infinite-slope stability model in which land instability is governed by the increase in groundwater pressure due to rainfall. The effect of rainfall infiltration on landside occurrence is modelled trough a reduced form of the Richards equation. The simulations are performed in a virtual basin, representative of the studied basin, taking into account the uncertainties linked with the definition of the characteristics of the soil. A large number of calculations are performed combining different values of the rainfall characteristics (intensity and duration of event rainfall and intensity of antecedent rainfall). For each combination of rainfall characteristics, the percentage of the basin that is unstable is computed. The obtained database is opportunely elaborated to derive RTC curves. The methodology is implemented and tested on a small basin of the Amalfi Coast (South Italy).

Description: Uncertainty in computations of the spread of warm water in a river – lessons from Environmental Impact Assessment case study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4177-4190, 2012 Author(s): M. B. Kalinowska and P. M. Rowiński The present study aims at the evaluation of sources of uncertainty in modelling of heat transport in a river caused by the discharge coming from a cooling system of a designed gas-stem power plant. This study was a part of an Environmental Impact Assessment and was based on two-dimensional modelling of temperature distribution in an actual river. The problems with the proper description of the computational domain, velocity field and hydraulic characteristics were considered in the work. An in-depth discussion on the methods of evaluation of the dispersion coefficients in the model comprising of all four components of the dispersion tensor was carried out. It was shown that in natural rivers all components of a dispersion tensor should be taken into account to qualitatively reflect the proper shape of temperature distributions. The results considerably depend on the 2-D velocity field as well as hydraulic and morphometric characteristics of the flow. Numerical methods and their influence on the final results of computations were also discussed. All computations were based upon a real case study performed in Vistula River in Poland.

Description: On the importance of appropriate precipitation gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4157-4176, 2012 Author(s): S. Stisen, A. L. Højberg, L. Troldborg, J. C. Refsgaard, B. S. B. Christensen, M. Olsen, and H. J. Henriksen Precipitation gauge catch correction is often given very little attention in hydrological modelling compared to model parameter calibration. This is critical because significant precipitation biases often make the calibration exercise pointless, especially when supposedly physically-based models are in play. This study addresses the general importance of appropriate precipitation catch correction through a detailed modelling exercise. An existing precipitation gauge catch correction method addressing solid and liquid precipitation is applied, both as national mean monthly correction factors based on a historic 30 yr record and as gridded daily correction factors based on local daily observations of wind speed and temperature. The two methods, named the historic mean monthly (HMM) and the time–space variable (TSV) correction, resulted in different winter precipitation rates for the period 1990–2010. The resulting precipitation datasets were evaluated through the comprehensive Danish National Water Resources model (DK-Model), revealing major differences in both model performance and optimised model parameter sets. Simulated stream discharge is improved significantly when introducing the TSV correction, whereas the simulated hydraulic heads and multi-annual water balances performed similarly due to recalibration adjusting model parameters to compensate for input biases. The resulting optimised model parameters are much more physically plausible for the model based on the TSV correction of precipitation. A proxy-basin test where calibrated DK-Model parameters were transferred to another region without site specific calibration showed better performance for parameter values based on the TSV correction. Similarly, the performances of the TSV correction method were superior when considering two single years with a much dryer and a much wetter winter, respectively, as compared to the winters in the calibration period (differential split-sample tests). We conclude that TSV precipitation correction should be carried out for studies requiring a sound dynamic description of hydrological processes, and it is of particular importance when using hydrological models to make predictions for future climates when the snow/rain composition will differ from the past climate. This conclusion is expected to be applicable for mid to high latitudes, especially in coastal climates where winter precipitation types (solid/liquid) fluctuate significantly, causing climatological mean correction factors to be inadequate.

Description: Simulating snow maps for Norway: description and statistical evaluation of the seNorge snow model The Cryosphere, 6, 1323-1337, 2012 Author(s): T. M. Saloranta Daily maps of snow conditions have been produced in Norway with the seNorge snow model since 2004. The seNorge snow model operates with 1 × 1 km resolution, uses gridded observations of daily temperature and precipitation as its input forcing, and simulates, among others, snow water equivalent (SWE), snow depth (SD), and the snow bulk density (ρ). In this paper the set of equations contained in the seNorge model code is described and a thorough spatiotemporal statistical evaluation of the model performance from 1957–2011 is made using the two major sets of extensive in situ snow measurements that exist for Norway. The evaluation results show that the seNorge model generally overestimates both SWE and ρ, and that the overestimation of SWE increases with elevation throughout the snow season. However, the R 2 -values for model fit are 0.60 for (log-transformed) SWE and 0.45 for ρ, indicating that after removal of the detected systematic model biases (e.g. by recalibrating the model or expressing snow conditions in relative units) the model performs rather well. The seNorge model provides a relatively simple, not very data-demanding, yet nonetheless process-based method to construct snow maps of high spatiotemporal resolution. It is an especially well suited alternative for operational snow mapping in regions with rugged topography and large spatiotemporal variability in snow conditions, as is the case in the mountainous Norway.

Description: Radio-frequency probes of Antarctic ice birefringence at South Pole vs. East Antarctica; evidence for a changing ice fabric The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4695-4731, 2012 Author(s): D. Besson, N. Doolin, M. Stockham, and I. Kravchenko Following pioneering efforts in East Antarctica, we herein report on the amplitude and temporal characteristics of polarized surface radar echo data collected in South Polar ice using radio sounding equipment with 0.5-ns echo-time precision. We observe strong echoes at 6, 9.6, 13.9, 17, and 19 μs following vertical pulse emission from the surface, in the upper half of the ice sheet. The synchronicity of those echoes for all broadcast azimuthal polarizations affirms the lack of observable birefringence over the upper half of the ice sheet, in contrast to East Antarctica measurements in the vicinity of Dome Fuji, and signifies a dramatic difference in the character of the ice sheet in the intervening 1400 km. Of the five strongest echoes, three exhibit an evident correlation with the local surface ice flow direction, qualitatively consistent with measurements in East Antarctica. Our radio sounding measurements also permit the most precise determination to date of the ice thickness at South Pole.

Description: Boreal snow cover variations induced by aerosol emissions in the middle of the 21st century The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4733-4769, 2012 Author(s): M. Ménégoz, G. Krinner, Y. Balkanski, A. Cozic, O. Boucher, and P. Ciais We used a coupled climate-chemistry model to quantify the impacts of aerosols on snow cover both for the present-day and for the middle of the 21st century. Black carbon (BC) deposition over continents induces a reduction in the Mean Number of Days With Snow at the Surface (MNDWS) that ranges from 0 to 10 days over large areas of Eurasia and Northern America for the present-day relative to the pre-industrial period. This is mainly due to BC deposition during the spring, a period of the year when the remaining of snow accumulated during the winter is exposed to both strong solar radiation and large amount of aerosol deposition induced themselves by a high level of transport of particles from polluted areas. North of 30° N, this deposition flux represents 222 Gg BC month −1 on average from April to June in our simulation. A large reduction in BC emissions is expected in the future in the Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Considering this scenario in our simulation leads to a decrease in the spring BC deposition down to 110 Gg month −1 in the 2050s in the RCP8.5 scenario. However, despite the reduction of the aerosol impact on snow, the MNDWS is strongly reduced by 2050, with a decrease ranging from 10 to 100 days from pre-industrial values over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This reduction is essentially due to temperature increase, which is quite strong in the RCP8.5 scenario in the absence of climate mitigation policies. Moreover, the projected sea-ice retreat in the next decades will open new routes for shipping in the Arctic. However, a large increase in shipping emissions in the Arctic by the mid 21st century does not lead to significant changes of BC deposition over snow-covered areas in our simulation. Therefore, the MNDWS is clearly not affected through snow darkening effects associated to these Arctic ship emissions. In an experiment without nudging toward atmospheric reanalyses, we simulated however some changes of the MNDWS considering such aerosol ship emissions. These changes are generally not statistically significant in boreal continents, except in the Quebec and in the West Siberian plains, where they range between −5 and −10 days. They are induced both by radiative forcings of the aerosols when they are in the atmosphere, and by all the atmospheric feedbacks. Climate change by the mid 21st century could also cause biomass burning activity (forest fires) to become more intense and occur earlier in the season. In an idealized scenario in which forest fires are 50% stronger and occur 2 weeks earlier than at present, we simulated an increase in spring BC deposition of 21 Gg BC month −1 over continents located north of 30° N. This BC deposition does not impact directly the snow cover through snow darkening effects. However, in an experiment considering all the aerosol forcings and atmospheric feedbacks, enhanced fire activity induces a significant decrease of the MNDWS reaching a dozen of days in Quebec and in Eastern Siberia.

Description: Ground penetrating radar detection of subsnow slush on ice-covered lakes in interior Alaska The Cryosphere, 6, 1435-1443, 2012 Author(s): A. Gusmeroli and G. Grosse Lakes are abundant throughout the pan-Arctic region. For many of these lakes ice cover lasts for up to two thirds of the year. The frozen cover allows human access to these lakes, which are therefore used for many subsistence and recreational activities, including water harvesting, fishing, and skiing. Safe traveling condition onto lakes may be compromised, however, when, after significant snowfall, the weight of the snow acts on the ice and causes liquid water to spill through weak spots and overflow at the snow-ice interface. Since visual detection of subsnow slush is almost impossible our understanding on overflow processes is still very limited and geophysical methods that allow water and slush detection are desirable. In this study we demonstrate that a commercially available, lightweight 1 GHz, ground penetrating radar system can detect and map extent and intensity of overflow. The strength of radar reflections from wet snow-ice interfaces are at least twice as much in strength than returns from dry snow-ice interface. The presence of overflow also affects the quality of radar returns from the base of the lake ice. During dry conditions we were able to profile ice thickness of up to 1 m, conversely, we did not retrieve any ice-water returns in areas affected by overflow.

Description: Ikaite crystal distribution in Arctic winter sea ice and implications for CO 2 system dynamics The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 5037-5068, 2012 Author(s): S. Rysgaard, D. H. Søgaard, M. Cooper, M. Pućko, K. Lennert, T. N. Papakyriakou, F. Wang, N. X. Geilfus, R. N. Glud, J. Ehn, D. F. McGinnnis, K. Attard, J. Sievers, J. W. Deming, and D. Barber The precipitation of ikaite (CaCO 3 ·6H 2 O) in polar sea ice is critical to the efficiency of the sea ice-driven carbon pump and potentially important to the global carbon cycle, yet the spatial and temporal occurrence of ikaite within the ice is poorly known. We report unique observations of ikaite in unmelted ice and vertical profiles of ikaite abundance and concentration in sea ice for the crucial season of winter. Ice was examined from two locations: a 1 m thick land-fast ice site and a 0.3 m thick polynya site, both in the Young Sound area (74° N, 20° W) of NE Greenland. Ikaite crystals, ranging in size from a few µm to 700 µm were observed to concentrate in the interstices between the ice platelets in both granular and columnar sea ice. In vertical sea-ice profiles from both locations, ikaite concentration determined from image analysis, decreased with depth from surfaceice values of 700–900 µmol kg −1 ice (~ 25 × 10 6 crystals kg −1 ) to bottom-layer values of 100–200 µmol kg −1 ice (1–7 × 10 6 kg −1 ), all of which are much higher (4–10 times) than those reported in the few previous studies. Direct measurements of total alkalinity (TA) in surface layers fell within the same range as ikaite concentration whereas TA concentrations in bottom layers were twice as high. This depth-related discrepancy suggests interior ice processes where ikaite crystals form in surface sea ice layers and partly dissolved in bottom layers. From these findings and model calculations we relate sea ice formation and melt to observed p CO 2 conditions in polar surface waters, and hence, the air-sea CO 2 flux.

Description: The footprint of Asian monsoon dynamics in the mass and energy balance of a Tibetan glacier The Cryosphere, 6, 1445-1461, 2012 Author(s): T. Mölg, F. Maussion, W. Yang, and D. Scherer Determinations of glacier-wide mass and energy balance are still scarce for the remote mountains of the Tibetan Plateau, where field measurements are challenging. Here we run and evaluate a physical, distributed mass balance model for Zhadang Glacier (central Tibet, 30° N) based on in-situ measurements over 2009–2011 and an uncertainty estimate by Monte Carlo and ensemble strategies. The model application aims to provide the first quantification of how the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) impacts an entire glacier over the various stages of the monsoon's annual cycle. We find a strong and systematic ISM footprint on the interannual scale. Early (late) monsoon onset causes higher (lower) accumulation, and reduces (increases) the available energy for ablation primarily through changes in absorbed shortwave radiation. By contrast, only a weak footprint exists in the ISM cessation phase. Most striking though is the core monsoon season: local mass and energy balance variability is fully decoupled from the active/break cycle that defines large-scale atmospheric variability during the ISM. Our results demonstrate quantitatively that monsoon onset strongly affects the ablation season of glaciers in Tibet. However, we find no direct ISM impact on the glacier in the main monsoon season, which has not been acknowledged so far. This result also adds cryospheric evidence that, once the monsoon is in full swing, regional atmospheric variability prevails on the Tibetan Plateau in summer.

Description: Preface "Water, climate, and vegetation: ecohydrology in a changing world" Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4633-4636, 2012 Author(s): L. Wang, J. Liu, G. Sun, X. Wei, S. Liu, and Q. Dong

Description: Propagation of Atlantic Ocean swells in the north Indian Ocean: a case study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3605-3615, 2012 Author(s): S. V. Samiksha, P. Vethamony, V. M. Aboobacker, and R. Rashmi An analysis of altimeter significant wave height data of May 2007 revealed the occurrence of an extreme weather event off southern tip of South Africa in the Atlantic Ocean, and generation of a series of very high swells at 40° S. These swells propagated towards northeast and broke over La Réunion island in the Indian Ocean on 12 May 2007. The wave model WAVEWATCH III was used to study the propagation of these swells in the Indian Ocean. The model was validated for the Indian Ocean using moored buoy data at 12 locations and merged altimeter wave data. The wave model accurately reproduced the event of May 2007. Swell heights, of the order of 15.0 m, at the generation area reduced to 6.0 m near La Réunion island. This study shows that the swells generated in the Roaring Forties of the Atlantic Ocean (between 15° to 80° E longitude) propagate in the NE/NNE direction towards the north Indian Ocean, and wave characteristics of the Arabian Sea are least influenced compared to that of Bay of Bengal, when swells from the Atlantic Ocean enter the Indian Ocean. The double peak spectrum extracted for the Bay of Bengal indicates that one of the peaks is due to swells generated off southern tip of South Africa.

Description: Mass balance, runoff and surges of the Bering Glacier, Alaska The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 5095-5117, 2012 Author(s): W. Tangborn The historical net, ablation and accumulation daily balances and runoff of the Bering Glacier, Alaska are determined for the 1951–2011 period with the PTAA (precipitation-temperature-area-altitude) model, using daily precipitation and temperature observations collected at the Cordova and Yakutat weather stations, together with the area-altitude distribution of the glacier. The mean annual balance for this 61-yr period is −0.6 mwe, the accumulation balance is +1.4 and the ablation balance is −2.0 mwe. Periodic surges of this glacier transport large volumes of ice to lower elevations where the ablation rate is higher, producing more negative balances and increasing runoff. During the 1993–1995 surge the average ablation balance is −3.3 mwe, over a meter greater than the 1951–2011 average. Runoff from the Bering Glacier (derived from simulated ablation and precipitation as rain) is highly correlated with the four glacier surges that have been observed since 1951. Ice volume loss for the 1972–2003 period measured with the PTAA model is 2.3 km 3 we a −1 and closely agrees with losses for the same period measured with the geodetic method.

Description: Expected changes in future temperature extremes and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 13609-13634, 2012 Author(s): Y. Hu, S. Maskey, and S. Uhlenbrook Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and the outputs from two global climate models we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the period 2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in interannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are also analyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better in reproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimum temperature-related indices. The projections show that by the end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frost days. Interannual variability increases in all seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring for frost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstrates pronounced elevation-dependent changes in which six out of eight indices show significant increasing changes with elevation.

Description: Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 13569-13607, 2012 Author(s): M. H. Ramos, S. J. van Andel, and F. Pappenberger The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also start putting attention to ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualization, but also requires understanding how decision makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real-time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision makers. Answers were collected and analyzed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if indeed we make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

Description: The first complete inventory of the local \newline glaciers and ice caps on Greenland The Cryosphere, 6, 1483-1495, 2012 Author(s): P. Rastner, T. Bolch, N. Mölg, H. Machguth, R. Le Bris, and F. Paul Glacier inventories provide essential baseline information for the determination of water resources, glacier-specific changes in area and volume, climate change impacts as well as past, potential and future contribution of glaciers to sea-level rise. Although Greenland is heavily glacierised and thus highly relevant for all of the above points, a complete inventory of its glaciers was not available so far. Here we present the results and details of a new and complete inventory that has been compiled from more than 70 Landsat scenes (mostly acquired between 1999 and 2002) using semi-automated glacier mapping techniques. A digital elevation model (DEM) was used to derive drainage divides from watershed analysis and topographic attributes for each glacier entity. To serve the needs of different user communities, we assigned to each glacier one of three connectivity levels with the ice sheet (CL0, CL1, CL2; i.e. no, weak, and strong connection) to clearly, but still flexibly, distinguish the local glaciers and ice caps (GIC) from the ice sheet and its outlet glaciers. In total, we mapped ~ 20 300 glaciers larger than 0.05 km 2 (of which ~ 900 are marine terminating), covering an area of 130 076 ± 4032 km 2 , or 89 720 ± 2781 km 2 without the CL2 GIC. The latter value is about 50% higher than the mean value of more recent previous estimates. Glaciers smaller than 0.5 km 2 contribute only 1.5% to the total area but more than 50% (11 000) to the total number. In contrast, the 25 largest GIC (〉 500 km 2 ) contribute 28% to the total area, but only 0.1% to the total number. The mean elevation of the GIC is 1700 m in the eastern sector and around 1000 m otherwise. The median elevation increases with distance from the coast, but has only a weak dependence on mean glacier aspect.

Description: An opportunity of application of excess factor in hydrology Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 13635-13649, 2012 Author(s): V. Kovalenko, E. Gaidukova, and A. Kachalova In last few years in hydrology an interest to excess factor has appeared as a reaction to unsuccessful attempts to simulate and predict evolving hydrological processes, which attributive property is statistical instability. The article shows, that the latter has a place at strong relative multiplicative noises of probabilistic stochastic model of a river flow formation, phenomenological display of which are "the thick tails" and polymodality, for which the excess factor "answers", by being ignored by a modern hydrology in connection to the large error of its calculation because of insufficient duration of lines of observation over a flow. However, it is found out, that the duration of observation of several decades practically stabilizes variability of the excess factor, the error of which definition appears commensurable with an error of other calculated characteristics used in engineering hydrology.

Description: Monitoring methane emission of mud volcanoes by seismic tremor measurements: a pilot study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3617-3629, 2012 Author(s): D. Albarello, M. Palo, and G. Martinelli A new approach for estimating methane emission at mud volcanoes is here proposed based on measurements of the seismic tremor on their surface. Data obtained at the Dashgil mud volcano in Azerbaijan reveal the presence of energy bursts characterized by well-determined features (i.e. waveforms, spectra and polarization properties) that can be associated with bubbling at depth. Counting such events provides a possible tool for monitoring gas production in the reservoir, thus minimizing logistic troubles and representing a cheap and effective alternative to more complex approaches. Specifically, we model the energy bursts as the effect of resonant gas bubbles at depth. This modelling allows to estimate the dimension of the bubbles and, consequently, the gas outflow from the main conduit in the assumption that all emissions from depth occur by bubble uprising. The application of this model to seismic events detected at the Dashgil mud volcano during three sessions of measurements carried out in 2006 and 2007 provides gas flux estimates that are in line with those provided by independent measurements at the same structure. This encouraging result suggests that the one here proposed could be considered a new promising, cheap and easy to apply tool for gas flux measurements in bubbling gas seepage areas.

Description: Hydrogeological settings of a volcanic island (San Cristóbal, Galapagos) from joint interpretation of airborne electromagnetics and geomorphological observations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4571-4579, 2012 Author(s): A. Pryet, N. d'Ozouville, S. Violette, B. Deffontaines, and E. Auken Many volcanic islands face freshwater stress and the situation may worsen with climate change and sea level rise. In this context, an optimum management of freshwater resources becomes crucial, but is often impeded by the lack of data. With the aim of investigating the hydrogeological settings of southern San Cristóbal Island (Galapagos), we conducted a helicopter-borne, transient electromagnetic survey with the SkyTEM system. It provided unprecedented insights into the 3-D resistivity structure of this extinct basaltic shield. Combined with remote sensing and fieldwork, it allowed the definition of the first hydrogeological conceptual model of the island. Springs are fed by a series of perched aquifers overlying a regional basal aquifer subject to seawater intrusion. Dykes, evidenced by alignments of eruptive cones at the surface, correspond to sharp sub-vertical contrasts in resistivity in the subsurface, and impound groundwater in a summit channel. Combined with geomorphological observations, airborne electromagnetics are shown to be a useful for hydrogeological exploratory studies in complex, poorly known environments. They allow optimal development of land-based geophysical surveys and drilling campaigns.

Description: Spatial distribution of solute leaching with snowmelt and irrigation: measurements and simulations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 13451-13490, 2012 Author(s): D. Schotanus, M. J. van der Ploeg, and S. E. A. T. M. van der Zee Transport of a tracer and a degradable solute in a heterogeneous soil was measured in the field, and simulated with several transient and steady state infiltration rates. Leaching surfaces were used to investigate the solute leaching in space and time simultaneously. In the simulations, a random field for the scaling factor in the retention curve was used for the heterogeneous soil, which was based on the spatial distribution of drainage in an experiment with a multi-compartment sampler. As a criterion to compare the results from simulations and observations, the sorted and cumulative total drainage in a cell was used. The effect of the ratio of the infiltration rate over the degradation rate on leaching of degradable solutes was investigated. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the leaching of degradable and non-degradable solutes was compared. The infiltration rate determines the amount of leaching of the degradable solute. This can be partly explained by a decreasing travel time with an increasing infiltration rate. The spatial distribution of the leaching also depends on the infiltration rate. When the infiltration rate is high compared to the degradation rate, the leaching of the degradable solute is similar as for the tracer. The fraction of the soil that contributes to solute leaching increases with an increasing infiltration rate. This fraction is similar for a tracer and a degradable solute. With increasing depth, the leaching becomes more homogeneous, as a result of dispersion. The spatial distribution of the solute leaching is different under different transient infiltration rates, therefore also the amount of leaching is different. With independent stream tube approaches, this effect would be ignored.

Description: Global glacier volumes and sea level – effects of ice below the surface of the ocean and of new local lakes on land The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 5169-5179, 2012 Author(s): W. Haeberli and A. Linsbauer The potential contribution of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise is usually calculated by comparing the estimated total ice volume with the surface area of the ocean. Part of this total ice volume, however, does not contribute to sea-level rise, because it is below the surface of the ocean or below the levels of future lakes on land. The present communication points to this so far overlooked phenomenon and provides a first order-of-magnitude estimate. It is shown that the effect is small (most likely 1 to 5 cm sea-level equivalent) but systematic, could primarily affect earlier stages of global glacier vanishing and should therefore be adequately considered. Now-available techniques of slope-related high-resolution glacier-bed modelling have the potential to provide more detailed assessments in the future.

Description: Micrometeorological conditions and surface mass and energy fluxes on Lewis glacier, Mt Kenya, in relation to other tropical glaciers The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 5181-5224, 2012 Author(s): L. Nicholson, R. Prinz, T. Mölg, and G. Kaser The Lewis Glacier on Mt Kenya is one of the best-studied tropical glaciers, but full understanding of the interaction of the glacier mass balance and climate forcing has been hampered by a lack of long term meteorological data. Here we present 2.5 yr of meteorological data collected from the glacier surface from October 2009–February 2012, which indicate that mean meteorological conditions in the upper zone of Lewis Glacier are comparable to those experienced in the ablation zones of South American tropical glaciers. In the context of other glaciated mountains of equatorial east Africa, the summit zone of Mt Kenya shows strong diurnal cycles of convective cloud development as opposed to the Rwenzoris where cloud cover persists throughout the diurnal cycle and Kilimanjaro where clear skies prevail. Surface energy fluxes were calculated for the meteorological station site using a physical mass- and energy-balance model driven by hourly measured meteorological data and additional input parameters that were determined by Monte Carlo optimization. Sublimation rate was lower than those reported on other tropical glaciers and melt rate was high throughout the year, with the glacier surface reaching the melting point on an almost daily basis. Surface mass balance is influenced by both solid precipitation and air temperature, with radiation providing the greatest net source of energy to the surface. Cloud cover typically reduces the net radiation balance compared to clear sky conditions, and thus the more frequent formation of convective clouds over the summit of Mt Kenya, and the associated higher rate of snow accumulation are important in limiting the rate of mass loss from the glacier surface. The analyses shown here are the basis for glacier-wide mass and energy balance modeling to determine the climate proxy offered by the glaciers of Mt Kenya.

Description: Climate change effects on irrigation demands and minimum stream discharge: impact of bias-correction method Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4675-4691, 2012 Author(s): J. Rasmussen, T. O. Sonnenborg, S. Stisen, L. P. Seaby, B. S. B. Christensen, and K. Hinsby Climate changes are expected to result in a warmer global climate, with increased inter-annual variability. In this study, the possible impacts of these climate changes on irrigation and low stream flow are investigated using a distributed hydrological model of a sandy catchment in western Denmark. The IPCC climate scenario A1B was chosen as the basis for the study, and meteorological forcings (precipitation, reference evapotranspiration and temperature) derived from the ECHAM5-RACMO regional climate model for the period 2071–2100 was applied to the model. Two bias correction methods, delta change and Distribution-Based Scaling, were used to evaluate the importance of the bias correction method. Using the annual irrigation amounts, the 5-percentile stream flow, the median minimum stream flow and the mean stream flow as indicators, the irrigation and the stream flow predicted using the two methods were compared. The study found that irrigation is significantly underestimated when using the delta change method, due to the inability of this method to account for changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation and reference ET and the resulting effects on irrigation demands. However, this underestimation of irrigation did not result in a significantly higher summer stream flow, because the summer stream flow in the studied catchment is controlled by the winter and spring recharge, rather than the summer precipitation. Additionally, future increases in CO 2 are found to have a significant effect on both irrigation and low flow, due to reduced transpiration from plants.

Description: Elevation correction of ERA-Interim temperature data in complex terrain Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4661-4673, 2012 Author(s): L. Gao, M. Bernhardt, and K. Schulz Air temperature controls a large variety of environmental processes, and is an essential input parameter for land surface models, for example in hydrology, ecology and climatology. However, meteorological networks, which can provide the necessary information, are commonly sparse in complex terrains, especially in high mountainous regions. In order to provide temperature data in an adequate temporal and spatial resolution for local scale applications a new elevation correction method has been developed that is able to downscale 3-hourly ERA-Interim temperature data. The scheme is based on model internal vertical lapse rates derived from different ERA-Interim pressure levels and has been validated for twelve meteorological stations in the German and Swiss Alps. The method was also compared with two other statistical, lapse rate based correction approaches. The results indicate that the use of model internal ERA-Interim lapse rates can significantly improve the downscaling performance when compared to the standard procedure of using fixed lapse rates.

Description: State updating of a distributed hydrological model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering: effects of updating frequency and observation network density on forecast accuracy Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3435-3449, 2012 Author(s): O. Rakovec, A. H. Weerts, P. Hazenberg, P. J. J. F. Torfs, and R. Uijlenhoet This paper presents a study on the optimal setup for discharge assimilation within a spatially distributed hydrological model. The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to update the grid-based distributed states of such an hourly spatially distributed version of the HBV-96 model. By using a physically based model for the routing, the time delay and attenuation are modelled more realistically. The discharge and states at a given time step are assumed to be dependent on the previous time step only (Markov property). Synthetic and real world experiments are carried out for the Upper Ourthe (1600 km 2 ), a relatively quickly responding catchment in the Belgian Ardennes. We assess the impact on the forecasted discharge of (1) various sets of the spatially distributed discharge gauges and (2) the filtering frequency. The results show that the hydrological forecast at the catchment outlet is improved by assimilating interior gauges. This augmentation of the observation vector improves the forecast more than increasing the updating frequency. In terms of the model states, the EnKF procedure is found to mainly change the pdfs of the two routing model storages, even when the uncertainty in the discharge simulations is smaller than the defined observation uncertainty.

Description: HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?" Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3391-3404, 2012 Author(s): U. Ehret, E. Zehe, V. Wulfmeyer, K. Warrach-Sagi, and J. Liebert Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both global and regional circulation models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem, bias correction (BC; i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post-processing step) has now become a standard procedure in climate change impact studies. In this paper we argue that BC is currently often used in an invalid way: it is added to the GCM/RCM model chain without sufficient proof that the consistency of the latter (i.e. the agreement between model dynamics/model output and our judgement) as well as the generality of its applicability increases. BC methods often impair the advantages of circulation models by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Currently used BC methods largely neglect feedback mechanisms, and it is unclear whether they are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying BC increases agreement of climate model output with observations in hindcasts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. This is in most cases not transparent to the end user. We argue that this hides rather than reduces uncertainty, which may lead to avoidable forejudging of end users and decision makers. We present here a brief overview of state-of-the-art bias correction methods, discuss the related assumptions and implications, draw conclusions on the validity of bias correction and propose ways to cope with biased output of circulation models in the short term and how to reduce the bias in the long term. The most promising strategy for improved future global and regional circulation model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with ensemble predictions based on sophisticated approaches for ensemble perturbation. With this article, we advocate communicating the entire uncertainty range associated with climate change predictions openly and hope to stimulate a lively discussion on bias correction among the atmospheric and hydrological community and end users of climate change impact studies.

Description: On selection of the optimal data time interval for real-time hydrological forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 10829-10875, 2012 Author(s): J. Liu and D. Han With the advancement in modern telemetry and communication technologies, hydrological data can be collected with an increasingly higher sampling rate. An important issue deserving attention from the hydrological community is what suitable time interval of the model input data should be chosen in hydrological forecasting. Such a problem has long been recognised in the control engineering community but is a largely ignored topic in operational applications of hydrological forecasting. In this study, the intrinsic properties of rainfall-runoff data with different time intervals are first investigated from the perspectives of the sampling theorem and the information loss using the discrete wavelet decomposition tool. It is found that rainfall signals with very high sampling rates may not always improve the accuracy of rainfall-runoff modelling due to the catchment low-pass filtering effect. To further investigate the impact of data time interval in real-time forecasting, a real-time forecasting system is constructed by incorporating the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) with a real-time updating scheme, the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model. Case studies are then carried out on four UK catchments with different concentration times for real-time flow forecasting using data with different time intervals of 15 min, 30 min, 45 min, 60 min, 90 min and 120 min. A positive relation is found between the forecast lead time and the optimal choice of the data time interval, which is also highly dependent on the catchment concentration time. Finally, based on the conclusions from the case studies, a hypothetical pattern is proposed in three-dimensional coordinates to describe the general impact of the data time interval and to provide implications on the selection of the optimal time interval in real-time hydrological forecasting. Although nowadays most operational hydrological systems still have low data sampling rates (daily or hourly), the trend in the future is that higher sampling rates will become widespread and there is an urgent need for both academic and practising hydrologists to realise the significance of the data time interval issue. It is important that more case studies in different catchments with various hydrological forecasting models should be explored in the future to further verify and improve the proposed hypothetical pattern.

Description: Catchment classification based on characterisation of streamflow and precipitation time-series Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 10805-10828, 2012 Author(s): E. Toth The formulation of objective procedures for the delineation of homogeneous groups of catchments is a fundamental issue in both operational and research hydrology. For assessing catchment similarity, a variety of hydrological information may be considered; in this paper, gauged sites are characterised by a set of streamflow signatures that include a representation, albeit simplified, of the properties of fine time-scale flow series and in particular of the dynamic components of the data, in order to keep into account the sequential order and the stochastic nature of the streamflow process. The streamflow signatures are provided in input to a clustering algorithm based on unsupervised SOM neural networks, providing an overall reasonable grouping of catchments on the basis of their hydrological response. In order to assign ungauged sites to such groups, the catchments are represented through a parsimonious set of morphometric and pluviometric variables, including also indexes that attempt to synthesize the variability and correlation properties of the precipitation time-series, thus providing information on the type of weather forcing that is specific to each basin. Following a principal components analysis, needed for synthesizing and better understanding the morpho-pluviometric catchment properties, a discriminant analysis finally classifies the ungauged catchments, through a leave-one-out cross-validation, to one of the above identified hydrologic response classes. The approach delivers quite satisfactory results for ungauged catchments, since the comparison of the two cluster sets shows an acceptable overlap. Overall results indicate that the inclusion of information on the properties of the fine time-scale streamflow and rainfall time-series may be a promising way for better representing the hydrologic and climatic character of the study catchments.

Description: Land cover and water yield: inference problems when comparing catchments with mixed land cover Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3461-3473, 2012 Author(s): A. I. J. M. van Dijk, J. L. Peña-Arancibia, and L. A. (Sampurno) Bruijnzeel Controlled experiments provide strong evidence that changing land cover (e.g. deforestation or afforestation) can affect mean catchment streamflow ( Q ). By contrast, a similarly strong influence has not been found in studies that interpret Q from multiple catchments with mixed land cover. One possible reason is that there are methodological issues with the way in which the Budyko framework was used in the latter type studies. We examined this using Q data observed in 278 Australian catchments and by making inferences from synthetic Q data simulated by a hydrological process model (the Australian Water Resources Assessment system Landscape model). The previous contrasting findings could be reproduced. In the synthetic experiment, the land cover influence was still present but not accurately detected with the Budyko- framework. Likely sources of interpretation bias demonstrated include: (i) noise in land cover, precipitation and Q data; (ii) additional catchment climate characteristics more important than land cover; and (iii) covariance between Q and catchment attributes. These methodological issues caution against the use of a Budyko framework to quantify a land cover influence in Q data from mixed land-cover catchments. Importantly, however, our findings do not rule out that there may also be physical processes that modify the influence of land cover in mixed land-cover catchments. Process model simulations suggested that lateral water redistribution between vegetation types and recirculation of intercepted rainfall may be important.

Description: Modeling postfire water erosion mitigation strategies Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 10877-10916, 2012 Author(s): M. C. Rulli, L. Offeddu, and M. Santini Severe wildfires are often followed by significant increase in runoff and erosion, due to vegetation damages and changes in physical and chemical soil properties. Peak flows and sediment yields can increase up to two orders of magnitude becoming dangerous for human lives and ecosystem, especially in the wildland-urban interface. Watershed post fire rehabilitation measures are usually used to mitigate the effects of fire on runoff and erosion, by protecting soil from splash and shear stress detachment and enhancing its infiltration capacity. Modeling post fire erosion and erosion mitigation strategies can be useful in selecting the effectiveness of rehabilitation method. In this paper a distributed model based on Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), properly parameterized for a Mediterranean basin located in Sardinia, is used to determine soil losses for six different scenarios describing both natural and post-fire basin condition, the last accounting also for the single and combined effect of different erosion mitigation measures. Fire effect on vegetation and soil properties have been mimed by changing soil drainage capacity and organic matter content, and RUSLE factors related to soil cover and protection measures. Model results show for the analyzed rehabilitation treatments their effect in reducing the amount of soil losses with the peculiar characteristics of the spatial distribution of such changes.

Description: Instabilities on Alpine temperate glaciers: new insights arising from the numerical modelling of Allalingletscher (Valais, Switzerland) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2977-2991, 2012 Author(s): J. Faillettaz, M. Funk, and D. Sornette The processes leading to a glacier instability depend on the thermal properties of the contact between the glacier and its bedrock. Assessing the stability of temperate glacier (i.e. the glacier can slide on its bedrock) remains problematic. In order to scrutinize in more detail the processes governing such "sliding" instabilities, a numerical model designed to investigate gravitational instabilities in heterogeneous media was further developed to account for the presence of water at the interface between the bedrock and the glacier for Allalingletscher. This model made it possible to account for various geometric configurations, interaction between sliding and tension cracking and water flow at the bedrock. We could show that both a critical geometrical configuration of the glacier tongue and the existence of a distributed subglacial drainage network were the main causes of the Allalingletscher catastrophic break-off. Moreover, the analysis of the modelling results diagnosed the phenomenon of recoupling of the glacier to its bed followed by a pulse of subglacial water flow as a potential new precursory sign of the final break-off in 1965. This model casts a gleam of hope for a better understanding of the ultimate rupture process resulting from such glacier sliding instabilities.

Description: Seasonal forecasts of drought indices in African basins Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11093-11129, 2012 Author(s): E. Dutra, F. Di Giuseppe, F. Wetterhall, and F. Pappenberger Vast parts of Africa rely on the rainy season for livestock and agriculture. Droughts can have a severe impact in these areas which often have a very low resilience and limited capabilities to mitigate their effects. This paper tries to assess the predictive capabilities of an integrated drought monitoring and forecasting system based on the Standard precipitation index (SPI). The system is firstly constructed by temporally extending near real-time precipitation fields (ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis and the Climate Anomaly Monitoring System-Outgoing Longwave Radiation Precipitation Index, CAMS-OPI) with forecasted fields as provided by the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system and then is evaluated over four basins in Africa: the Blue Nile, Limpopo, Upper Niger, and Upper Zambezi. There are significant differences in the quality of the precipitation between the datasets depending on the catchments, and a general statement regarding the best product is difficult to make. All the datasets show similar patterns in the South and North West Africa, while there is a low correlation in the tropical region which makes it difficult to define ground truth and choose an adequate product for monitoring. The Seasonal forecasts have a higher reliability and skill in the Blue Nile, Limpopo and Upper Niger in comparison with the Zambezi. This skill and reliability depends strongly on the SPI time-scale, and more skill is observed at larger time-scales. The ECMWF seasonal forecasts have predictive skill which is higher than using climatology for most regions. In regions where no reliable near real-time data is available, the seasonal forecast can be used for monitoring (first month of forecast). Furthermore, poor quality precipitation monitoring products can reduce the potential skill of SPI seasonal forecasts in two to four months lead time.

Description: Uncertainty of lateral boundary conditions in a convection-permitting ensemble: a strategy of selection for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2993-3011, 2012 Author(s): O. Nuissier, B. Joly, B. Vié, and V. Ducrocq This study examines the impact of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) in convection-permitting (C-P) ensemble simulations with the AROME model driven by the ARPEGE EPS (PEARP). Particular attention is paid to two torrential rainfall episodes, observed on 15–16 June 2010 (the Var case) and 7–8 September 2010 (the Gard-Ardèche case) over the southeastern part of France. Regarding the substantial computing time for convection-permitting models, a methodology of selection of a few LBCs, dedicated for C-P ensemble simulations of heavy precipitation events is evaluated. Several sensitivity experiments are carried out to evaluate the skill of the AROME ensembles, using different approaches for selection of the driving PEARP members. The convective-scale predictability of the Var case is very low and it is driven primarily by a surface low over the Gulf of Lyon inducing a strong convergent low-level flow, and accordingly advecting strong moisture supply from the Mediterranean Sea toward the flooded area. The Gard-Ardèche case is better handled in ensemble simulations as a surface cold front moved slowly eastwards while increasing the low-level water vapour ahead is well reproduced. The selection based on a cluster analysis of the PEARP members generally better performs against a random selection. The consideration of relevant meteorological parameters for the convective events of interest (i.e. geopotential height at 500 hPa and horizontal moisture flux at 925 hPa) refined the cluster analysis. It also helps in better capturing the forecast uncertainty variability which is spatially more localized at the "high-impact region" due to the selection of more mesoscale parameters.

Description: Compiling geophysical and geological information into a 3-D model of the glacially-affected island of Föhr Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3485-3498, 2012 Author(s): T. Burschil, W. Scheer, R. Kirsch, and H. Wiederhold Within the scope of climatic change and associated sea level rise, coastal aquifers are endangered and are becoming more a focus of research to ensure the future water supply in coastal areas. For groundwater modelling a good understanding of the geological/hydrogeological situation and the aquifer behavior is necessary. In preparation of groundwater modelling and assessment of climate change impacts on coastal water resources, we setup a geological/hydrogeological model for the North Sea Island of Föhr. Data from different geophysical methods applied from the air, the surface and in boreholes contribute to the 3-D model, e.g. airborne electromagnetics (SkyTEM) for spatial mapping the resistivity of the entire island, seismic reflections for detailed cross-sections in the groundwater catchment area, and geophysical borehole logging for calibration of these measurements. An iterative and integrated evaluation of the results from the different geophysical methods contributes to reliable data as input for the 3-D model covering the whole island and not just the well fields. The complex subsurface structure of the island is revealed. The local waterworks use a freshwater body embedded in saline groundwater. Several glaciations reordered the youngest Tertiary and Quaternary sediments by glaciotectonic thrust faulting, as well as incision and refill of glacial valleys. Both subsurface structures have a strong impact on the distribution of freshwater-bearing aquifers. A digital geological 3-D model reproduces the hydrogeological structure of the island as a base for a groundwater model. In the course of the data interpretation, we deliver a basis for rock identification. We demonstrate that geophysical investigation provide petrophysical parameters and improve the understanding of the subsurface and the groundwater system. The main benefit of our work is that the successful combination of electromagnetic, seismic and borehole data reveals the complex geology of a glacially-affected island. A sound understanding of the subsurface structure and the compilation of a 3-D model is imperative and the basis for a groundwater flow model to predict climate change effects on future water resources.

Description: A century of ice retreat on Kilimanjaro: the mapping reloaded The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4233-4265, 2012 Author(s): N. J. Cullen, P. Sirguey, T. Mölg, G. Kaser, M. Winkler, and S. J. Fitzsimons A new and consistent time series of glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro over the last century has been established by re-interpreting two historical maps and processing nine satellite images, which removes uncertainty about the location and extent of past and present ice bodies. Three-dimensional visualization techniques were used in conjunction with aerial and ground-based photography to facilitate the interpretation of ice boundaries over eight epochs between 1912 and 2011. The glaciers have retreated from their former extent of 11.40 km 2 in 1912 to 1.76 km 2 in 2011, which represents a total loss of about 85% of the ice cover over the last 100 yr. The total loss of ice cover is in broad agreement with previous estimates but to further characterize the spatial and temporal variability of glacier retreat a cluster analysis using topographical information (elevation, slope and aspect) was performed to segment the ice cover as observed in 1912, which resulted in three glacier zones being identified. Linear extrapolation of the retreat in each of the three identified glacier assemblages imply the ice cover on the western slopes of Kilimanjaro will be gone before 2020, while the remaining ice bodies on the plateau and southern slopes will most likely disappear by 2040. It is highly unlikely that any body of ice will be present on Kilimanjaro after 2060 if present-day climatological conditions are maintained. Importantly, the geo-statistical approach developed in this study provides us with an additional tool to characterize the physical processes governing glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro. It remains clear that to use glacier response to unravel past climatic conditions on Kilimanjaro the transition from growth to decay of the plateau glaciers must be further resolved, in particular the mechanisms responsible for vertical cliff development.

Description: Inhomogeneous snow distribution and depletion patterns at grid scale in a shallow snowpack region The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4171-4203, 2012 Author(s): H. Li, J. Wang, Z. Tang, and J. Wang Understanding inhomogeneous snow processes at the grid scale is crucial for distributed snow hydrology research. Many studies on inhomogeneous snow processes focus on the annual similarity of snow distribution and depletion and the roles of topography and other environmental conditions. In contrast, this study examines the snow distribution and depletion patterns at a small grid scale in a shallow snowpack region and analyzes how meteorological factors influence these patterns by using the SNOWPACK model for scenario simulations. These simulations enable quantification of the role of three main meteorological factors: shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and air temperature. The study region is located in the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibet plateau. The results of the study indicate the following two points. (1) During different snowmelt periods, spatial similarity exists between the periodical cumulative snow distributions, and the relationships between snow cover fraction and mean snow water equivalent are similar. However, this similarity is not applicable to the period before snowmelt. (2) Shortwave radiation has a~major impact on the snow distribution and depletion patterns at the small grid scale. Increasing shortwave radiation can greatly promote the heterogeneity of the snow distribution. The contributions of longwave radiation and air temperature to the heterogeneity of snow distribution are minor. Moreover, there are similarities between the simulated snow distributions when considering the scenarios of increases in longwave radiation or in air temperature.

Description: Glacier changes from 1966–2009 in the Gongga Mountains, on the south-eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and their climatic forcing The Cryosphere, 6, 1087-1101, 2012 Author(s): B. T. Pan, G. L. Zhang, J. Wang, B. Cao, H. P. Geng, J. Wang, C. Zhang, and Y. P. Ji In order to monitor the changes of the glaciers in the Gongga Mountain region on the south-eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, 74 monsoonal temperate glaciers were investigated by comparing the Chinese Glacier Inventory (CGI), recorded in the 1960s, with Landsat MSS in 1974, Landsat TM in 1989, 1994, 2005, and ASTER data in 2009. The remote sensing data have been applied to map the glacier outline by threshold ratio images (TM4/TM5). Moreover, the glacier outlines were verified by GPS survey on four large glaciers (Hailuogou (HLG), Mozigou (MZG), Yanzigou (YZG), and Dagongba (DGB)) in 2009. The results show that the area dominated by the 74 glaciers has shrunk by 11.3% (29.2 km 2 ) from 1966 to 2009. Glacier area on the eastern and western slopes of the Gongga Mountains decreased by 9.8% and 14.6% since 1966, respectively. The loss in glacier area and length is, respectively, 0.8 km 2 and 1146.4 m for the HLG Glacier, 2.1 km 2 and 501.8 m for the MZG Glacier, 0.8 km 2 and 724.8 m for the YZG Glacier, and 2.4 km 2 and 1002.3 m for the DGB Glacier. Decades of climate records obtained from three meteorological stations in the Gongga Mountains were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the temperature and precipitation on glacier retreat. The mean annual temperatures over the eastern and western slopes of the Gongga Mountains have been increasing by 0.34 K decade −1 and 0.24 K decade −1 (1988–2009), respectively. Moreover, mean annual precipitation has only increased by 1% in the past 50 yr. The increasing amount of precipitation could not compensate for the glacier mass loss due to the temperature increase in the Gongga Mountains. This suggests that the warming of the climate is probably also responsible for the glacier retreat in the study region. At the region scale, glacier changes were also controlled by local topographical factors.

Description: Multi-satellite rainfall sampling error estimates – a comparative study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11677-11706, 2012 Author(s): M. Itkin and A. Loew This study focus is set on quantifying sampling related uncertainty in the satellite rainfall estimates. We conduct observing system simulation experiment to estimate sampling error for various constellations of Low-Earth orbiting and geostationary satellites. There are two types of microwave instruments currently available: cross track sounders and conical scanners. We evaluate the differences in sampling uncertainty for various satellite constellations that carry instruments of the common type as well as in combination with geostationary observations. A precise orbital model is used to simulate realistic satellite overpasses with orbital shifts taken into account. With this model we resampled rain gauge timeseries to simulate satellites rainfall estimates free of retrieval and calibration errors. We concentrate on two regions, Germany and Benin, areas with different precipitation regimes. Our results show that sampling uncertainty for all satellite constellations does not differ greatly depending on the area despite the differences in local precipitation patterns. Addition of 3 hourly geostationary observations provides equal performance improvement in Germany and Benin, reducing rainfall undersampling by 20–25% of the total rainfall amount. Authors do not find a significant difference in rainfall sampling between conical imager and cross-track sounders.

Description: Soil moisture controls on patterns of grass green-up in Inner Mongolia: an index based approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11641-11675, 2012 Author(s): H. Liu, F. Tian, H. Hu, H. Hu, and M. Sivapalan Water availability is one of the most important environmental controls on vegetation phenology, especially in semi-arid regions, and is often represented in terms of soil moisture in small-scale studies whereas it tends to be represented by precipitation in large-scale (e.g. regional) studies. Clearly, soil moisture is the more appropriate indicator for root water uptake and vegetation growth/phenology and therefore its potential advantage and applicability needs to be demonstrated at regional scales. This paper represents a data-based regional study of the effectiveness of alternative indices based on water and energy availability on space-time patterns of spring vegetation green-up onset dates estimated from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets in the grasslands of Inner Mongolia, China. The macro-scale hydrological model, VIC, is employed to generate a soil moisture database across the region. In addition to standard index based on temperature, two potential hydrology based indices for prediction of spring onset dates are defined based on the simulated soil moisture data as well as on observed precipitation data. Results indicate that the correspondence between the NDVI-derived green-up onset date and the soil moisture derived potential onset date exhibits a significantly better correlation as a function of increasing aridity, compared to that based on precipitation. In this way the soil moisture based index is demonstrated to be superior to the precipitation based index in terms of capturing grassland spring phenology. The results also showed that both of the hydrological (water based) indices were superior to the thermal (temperature based) index in determining the patterns of grass green-up in the Inner Mongolia region, indicating water availability to be the dominant control, on average. The understanding about the relative controls on grassland phenology, and the effectiveness of alternative indices to capture these controls, are important for future studies and predictions of vegetation phenology change under climate change.